caniacwrites

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Previews - West Play-in Matchup 2/4: VAN vs MIN

Hello again! Sorry for the delay in getting this out, but even though it’s late, here it is! Today, we’re taking a look at the next qualifying round series in the West, the Vancouver Canucks vs. the Minnesota Wild.

I think this is going to be a shorter one, too. And not necessarily because i think the matchup is going to be extremely one-sided, because I don’t exactly. It’s more that I just don’t have a ton to say about these teams that hasn’t been said already.

Vancouver

Vancouver has a ton of young talent. They’ve got Quinn Hughes - certainly a finalist for this year’s Calder trophy for Rookie of the Year, and a favorite to win it - Elias Pettersson (last year’s Calder winner), and Brock Boeser, a Calder finalist from 2018. Boeser had injury problems this year which caused him to record his lowest career totals in terms of offensive stats, but he’s healthy and ready to go for the start of this series.

They’ve got some great slightly-older-but-still-young guys like Tanner Pearson, their new captain Bo Horvat, Tyler Toffoli (who had 10 points in the 10 games he played with Vancouver after getting traded from LA), and JT Miller, who had a career year with 72 points in 69 games. They also have great depth with players like Jake Virtanen, Josh Leivo, and Adam Gaudette.

On top of that, the Canucks have a solid group of experienced veterans, too. Tyler Myers, Alex Edler, Antoine Roussel, Brandon Sutter, and Jay Beagle are all extremely valuable pieces to help provide a leadership presence and playoff experience to Vancouver’s young core.

Their goaltending was pretty good this year, too. Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko both have room to grow, but they’ve been good. My only question is if they’ll be able to perform in a playoff environment, since neither goalie is any playoff experience whatsoever.

Minnesota

I have to applaud the Wild, I really do. They’re like the Columbus of the Western Conference. Despite their lack of any true superstars, they managed to keep themselves in the thick of the West wild card race in a fiercely competitve Central division. They only finished one point in the standings behind Vancouver.

Unlike Columbus, though, Minnesota is a little on the older side. They have the 2nd highest average age in the NHL at 29.4, behind only the Sharks’ 29.5. Only four of their main roster players are under the age of 25. There are nine who are over the age of 30, including both of their goalies, and four who are at least 35. 

Don’t get me wrong, they’re still great players. Ryan Suter, Eric Staal, Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu are extremely valuable to any retooling team. But it’s hard to build a Cup-contending team when your “young centerpieces” that all franchises need are basically just Kevin Fiala and Luke Kunin.

I think Minnesota’s biggest strength is their defense. Suter is getting up there, but he’s still an excellent defenseman. The Wild also have Jared Spurgeon, Matt Dumba, and Jonas Brodin, who are all three solid, reliable guys. Their goaltending duo of Alex Stalock and Devan Dubnyk has also been pretty good throughout the year.

Unfortunately, I just don’t think the Wild score enough to keep up with Vancouver. If they’re going to, the need a little bit more from Jason Zucker and Mikko Koivu.

Special Teams

So here, things get a little interesting. The Wild have the 11th best powerplay at 21.3%. The Canucks, on the other hand, are at 24.6%, putting them 4th in the NHL. Vancouver has a solidly average penalty kill, 16th at 80.5%. But the Wild... well, Minnesota is 7th worst on the PK, clocking in at just 77.2%. If the Wild are undisciplined in this series and give the Canucks a lot of powerplay chances, they are going to pay for it big-time.

Final Prediction: Vancouver, 3-1

Like I said, I have to give props to Minnesota, I really do. They’ve hung in there all season long, and it really is impressive. But Vancouver is starting to enter their new Golden Age, the age of Boeser and Pettersson and Hughes Demko and surprisingly, JT Miller. And I just can’t see Minnesota overcoming them in a 5-game series, even if they can steal one or two games.

If you got all the way down here, thanks for reading! I’ve decided I’m going to start taking a day or two in between these posts, just to give myself a little more time. So check back in a couple days for my preview of the Nashville Predators vs Arizona Coyotes!

CaniacWrites

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Previews - West Play-in Matchup 1/4: CGY vs WPG

Hello again! Welcome back to my series of previews of the qualifying round of the 2020 NHL playoffs! Today, we’re done looking at the Eastern Conference matchups and are transitioning over to the Western Conference. Since I went in reverse seeding order in the East, I’m going to do the same here in the West, which means that we’ll be starting with the Calgary Flames vs the Winnipeg Jets.

This is another tough one for me. The Flames and Jets are two very evenly matched teams, a fact that is supported by the result of the only regular season game they were able to play against each other. All the way back at the end of October, the Jets defeated the Flames in Winnipeg 2-1 in overtime.

Calgary

Calgary was really, really great last season. They have not really been able to carry over that performance to 2019-20.

What I like about Calgary is that they can be a gritty, in-your-face team with guys like Matthew Tkachuk, Milan Lucic, and Mark Giordano. They’re a team that works hard, with excellent depth and goal-scoring contributions throughout their lineup.

They also have a very good group of defensemen. Giordano, of course, leads the lot, but the Flames’ lineup also boasts TJ Brodie, Noah Hanifin, and Travis Hamonic. They were also able to acquire Erik Gustafsson from Chicago at the trade deadline. Additionally, Jusso Valimaki has been sidelined for the entire year since suffering a torn ACL before the regular season even began. Getting him back healthy will also give the Flames a big boost.

What I don’t like, however, is - actually a couple of things. First off, I can’t help but remember last year’s playoffs, when the Flames’ Conference-winning season ended in... well, flames. They were dismantled by the Colorado Avalanche, and what bothers me most is the fact that Johnny Gaudreau was all but invisible in that series.  Even in the regular season this year, Gaudreau had 58 points but only 18 goals - nowhere near where he was at last season, and not the kind of numbers you need one of your superstars to be putting up. 

As a smaller guy, Gaudreau was bullied by Colorado’s physicality in that series. Instead of pushing back harder, he got frustrated and spiraled. Winnipeg is also a big, physical team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the same thing happened to him again this year.

I’m hesitant to trust Calgary’s goaltending, too. Don’t get me wrong, Rittich has been solid at times (and actually - surprisingly - so has Talbot), but like so many goalies, he’s struggled for consistency. Talbot is the only one who has playoff expereince, as Rittich was Mike Smith’s backup last year and didn’t play in the series. But even then, that was all the way back in 2016-17 with Edmonton.

I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that Winnipeg is the only team in the NHL to have four 60+ point scorers. Against that kind of physical and multi-pronged offense, I just don’t know how Calgary’s goaltending is going to hold up.

Winnipeg

The Jets, too, have failed to equal their same level of success from last season. If they hadn’t run up against the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Blues in the first round of the playoffs, who knows how far they would have gone. But now, we’re here to talk about how far they might go this year.

I really like the Jets’ forwards. Kyle Conner had a career year with 38 goals and 73 points. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler have continued to produce as well, and though Patrik Laine has struggled in recent years, this season was the one where he looked most like himself again.

On top of their four 60+ point-getters, the Jets top five scorers also all eclipsed the 20-goal mark. As I mentioned above, they have a balanced lineup that gets offense from all lines.

They’re also huge.

When you think of the Jets forwards, you think skill and size. Wheeler, Scheifele, Laine, Jack Roslovic, Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry - the list goes on and on. They’re all talented guys who are very large and very not afraid to throw their weight around. They pair nicely with some of the smaller guys like Conner and Nikolaj Ehlers, who are known more for their speed.

The Jets also have Connor Hellebuyck. A leading Vezina candidate for the past few years - including this year - Hellebuyck recorded a .922 SV% in 56 starts this season. His backup, Laurent Broissoit, has not had quite as sparkling numbers, but you always know what you’re getting from Hellebuyck. He’s consistently an outstanding goaltender.

Where I’m a litttle iffy with Winnipeg is their defense. With the trades of Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers and the loss of Dustin Byfuglien, the Jets have given up a lot of size and toughness on the blue line in exchange for mobility. Yes, they still have Dmitry Kulikov, Anthony Bitetto, and Samu Niku, who are all very physical defensemen. But a lot of the focus this season has been on Neal Pionk (acquired in the Trouba trade) and Josh Morissey, two more average-sized guys who are great skaters and puck-movers. 

In a head-to-head comparison, I think the Flames defense is better. But there will certainly be plenty of opportunities for the Jets to prove me wrong.

Special Teams

So now we get to the part of this article where I compare each club’s special teams. And I gotta say, there’s nothing remarkable in this matchup.

You’d think that both of these teams would have great powerplays, with the forward firepower and good offensive defensemen they each have, but that’s not actually the case. Both powerplays are really just average. The Flames are ranked 12th, at 21.2%, while the Jets are right below them in 15th at 20.5%.

Last year, Calgary’s penalty kill was one of the best in the entire league. This year? It’s good, but not as good as it was. They’re ranked 8th at 82.1% efficiency. The Jets, meanwhile, are all the way down at 22nd, operating at only 77.6%.

Special teams are always an important factor - especially in the playoffs - and I think I give Calgary a slight edge in that category. Still, both teams certainly have work to do before their series begins.

Final Prediction: Winnipeg, 3-2

This is another series that I think could very easily go either way. But despite that and the special teams edge to Calgary, I think the Jets are going to take this one. I trust in Hellebuyck more than I do Rittich or Talbot, and though the Flames have the ability to play physical, I think the Jets have the overall grittier lineup. And I think that’s going to cause real problems for the Flames’ stars like Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Sean Monahan, just like it did last year with Colorado.

Thanks for reading, and tune in tomorrow for my preview of the Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild!

CaniacWrites

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Previews - East Play-in Matchup 4/4: PIT vs MTL

Hello, and thanks for coming back to my series previewing each of the upcoming play-in matchups in the NHL playoffs! Today, we’ll be examining the last of the four series’ in the Eastern Conference, the Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens.

I’m gonna be honest, you guys... I don’t have a lot to say about this matchup. 

The Penguins have been through some rough patches this season, but a lot of that has been due to injuries. Pittsburgh only has two players on their entire roster that played in all 69 games, and it’s Teddy Blueger and Marcus Pettersson. Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Kris Letang, and Patric Hornqvist have all missed significant time - yet the Penguins still came out with a 40-23-6 record. All of those players should be back in the lineup by the start of this series.

And I’m sorry, but Montreal would never have had a sniff at the Eastern wild card race if it wasn’t for the Return to Play plan. They were 10 points out of a playoff spot with 11 games left when the season was stopped, with roughly six teams above them duking it out for three playoff spots. They didn’t have a chance. I’m sure most people will also probably remember the Canadiens’ not one, but two different 8 game losing streaks during the regular season. It was not a happy year for them.

I know I’ve been frequently referencing statistics in my other posts (possibly more often than I should, but hey, I like stats), but honestly, I feel like I don’t even really need to do that here. Montreal doesn’t have much of anything happening for them besides Tomas Tatar, and the Penguins stats are skewed low because of all their injuries. I think I’m just going to skip straight to the end.

Final Prediction: Pittsburgh, 3-0

Pittsburgh’s core may be aging, but at the end of the day, Crosby and Malkin are still Crosby and Malkin. Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry (Jarry especially) have been a great goaltending duo, while Carey Price has struggled to give that to the Canadiens. It’s just one of the many things that was going wrong for them this year. With all that, I’m sorry, but I just don’t think Montreal has any chance at all. Pittsburgh’s taking this one in a sweep.

If you stopped by, thanks for reading! My next post will begin looking at the Western Conference qualifying round matchups. I’m going to take a short day’s break and not post tomorrow, so look out for that one to come on Monday (6/8). Thanks again, and see you all Monday!

CaniacWrites

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Preview - East Play-in Matchup 3/4: CAR vs NYR

Hello, and welcome back to my series preview each of the upcoming matchups for the qualifying round of the 2020 NHL playoffs! Today, we’re taking a gander at the third matchup in the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes vs the New York Rangers.

So here we are: the write-up I’ve simultaneously been looking forward to and dreading. I feel like I should include a disclaimer here, that I grew up in Raleigh and I’ve been a Hurricanes fan all my life. I’m going to try to be as unbiased as possible (while also not overcompensating so much that I end up conveying an opposite bias), but it’s a tricky balance to strike. Also, by dint of being a Canes fan, there’s also the simple fact that I know more about Carolina than I do any other team, so I’ll likely end up giving them more focus. Still, I’ll do my best to keep it relatively even.

Ok, so first off, there’ve been a lot of jokes being made about how Carolina was one of two teams to vote against the Return to Play plan as it was proposed, that they did that because they were scared of playing against the Rangers. There was more to it than that, which I won’t go into here, but also... the joke works because it’s kind of true.

The Canes have lost 19 of their last 20 games at Madison Square Garden including both this year, en route to dropping all 4 games of the season series against the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist has been a Cane-Killer his entire career, and unfortunately, his two young protegées Alex Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin both seem to have inherited that trait from him. So many of the Hurricanes’ recent losses to New York that I can remember were almost single-handedly won by the Rangers’ goaltender, whoever it happened to be on that particular night. And in the playoffs, running up against a hot goalie is a death sentence.

New York

Of course, the Rangers have a lot else to talk about, too. FA signing from Columbus Artemi Panarin is easily a leading candidate for the Hart with his 63 assists - tied for 2nd in the league with Connor McDavid - and 95 points. He’s shattered his previous career high by 8 points in 10 fewer games, and was on track to record 110+ in a full-length season. Mika Zibanejad has benefitted enormously from playing with Panarin, also setting a new career high in points in 25 fewer games. He’s also one of just five players in the NHL to score 40+ goals.

Panarin and Zibanejad may be the superstars, but their lineup isn’t top-heavy. The Rangers have seven players who have scored at least 40 points - two of whom are defensemen, Adam Fox and Tony DeAngelo - and four who have at least 50. Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich, two speedy, strong forwards, both had great seasons, and will need to continue to be key factors for the Rangers to make a deep playoff run.

New York is still a pretty young lineup, though, and it remains to be seen if they can buckle down and play playoff hockey. If they want to succeed, they’re going to need a little more depth production from guys like 2019 2nd overall pick Kaapo Kakko and Philip Chytil.

Carolina

Like the Rangers, the Hurricanes also have a good balance of point-producing stars and bottom 6 depth. Sebastian Aho finished the shortened season with a career-high 38 goals in 68 games, up from 30 in the full 82 game season last year. If not for the virus can cancellation, he would’ve easily eclisped 40 and likely even gotten to at least 45. Even so, he was tied for 20th in the NHL in points and tied for 6th in goals.

Aho’s fellow Finn Teuvo Teravainen has also continued to be a consistent producer with 63 points.

Andrei Svechnikov, the #2 pick in the 2018 draft the year before Kakko, has also really begun to come into his own this season. He set career highs in all three offensive categories with 24 goals and 37 assists for 61 points in just 68 games, obliterating his rookie year totals of 20 goals and 17 assists for 37 points in the full 82 games. 

Carolina is one of only five teams with 3 or more 60+ point scorers. The other four? Edmonton (Draisaitl, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins), Tampa Bay (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point), Toronto (Marner, Matthews, Tavares), and Winnipeg (Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine). I don’t know about you, but I think that’s some pretty good company.

Carolina’s depth scoring has been a slight problem at times, but the acquisition of Vincent Trochek at the deadline and the return of Justin Williams were already starting to improve that in the short time before the season was cancelled.

There’s also going to be a lot of attention on the Canes’ goaltending duo Petr Mrazek and James Reimer. They’ve been very good at times but have also struggled for consistency, and it’s going to be vital that they be able to backstop the Canes from the crease.

Injuries

I’m giving this one a whole section because it’s huge. The Hurricanes are going to be getting some big pieces back from injury by the time the qualifying round begins. Brett Pesce will still be recovering from shoulder surgery, unfortunately, but Ryan Dzingel and Sami Vatanen will both be available for the start of the series vs New York.

By far the most important return for Carolina, though, will be Dougie Hamilton.

Hamilton is, to use a phrase of Tripp Tracy’s, “the straw that stirs the drink,” in so many ways. He’s a cornerstone of both special teams units, a reliable defender who also provides tons of offense. Before he got injured, he’d notched 14 goals and 40 points in 47 games and was a leading candidate to be nominated for the Norris trophy for Best Defenseman. He was on track for a career-high 20+ goals and 70+ points, until an unfortunate collision in mid-January fractured his fibula and kept him out for the rest of the shortened season. The positive impact of what his return will do for the team can’t be understated.

Defense

That leads me nicely into the next thing I wanted to touch on briefly: defense. The Rangers corps of defensemen is really good.  They have some great young players in Fox, DeAngelo, and Jacob Trouba, and veterans Marc Staal and Brendan Smith to help anchor them. 

But Carolina’s group is incredible, easily one of the best in the league. Jaccob Slavin is one of the most consistent players in the entire NHL. You always know what you’re going to get from him, and it’s always going to be top-tier defense. When he’s reunited with his now-healthy partner Dougie Hamilton, the Hurricanes’ top pairing has few equals.

Additionally, the acquisitions of Brady Skjei and Sami Vatanen at the deadline could make Carolina’s defensive pairs look something like this:

Slavin - Hamilton

Gardiner - Skjei

Edmundson - Vatanen

That’s an exceptional lineup that has a great balance of helping boost the offense of prodiving solid defense. And that even leaves out Trevor van Reimsdyk and Haydn Fleury as healthy scratches - both of whom have been really good this year - and of course, the injury to Brett Pesce. Carolina has a plethora of skilled defensemen, and now that they’re (almost) all going to be healthy, the Hurricanes are going to be even more dangerous than before.

Special Teams

The last thing I want to talk about before I reveal my prediction is, as usual, special teams. And honestly, it doesn’t make the final decision any easier. These teams continue to be very evenly-matched, even in the special teams department.

Thanks to their strong groups of star forwards and high-talent offensive defensemen, both teams have dangerous powerplays. The Rangers with the 7th best PP at 22.9%, and Carolina came in right under them in 8th with 22.3%. But Carolina’s PP is going to hugely benefit from returning Hamilton and Williams to the top unit and adding Trochek and Vatanen to the second unit, so I think I give them a slight edge.

There’s another reason I think that, though. The Hurricanes penalty kill is very good - 4th in the NHL, in fact, at 84%. They’re also tied for 2nd in the NHL with 10 shorthanded goals, 4 of which have been scored by Sebastian Aho. The Rangers, meanwhile, have the 9th worst PK at just 77.4%. 

Final Prediction: Carolina, 3-2

Now I know what you’re thinking, of course I picked Carolina. And I admit, it is partially because that’s who I want to win. And yes, there’s the Curse of MSG to consider. But Carolina could still win the series even without winning a game in New York. The bottom line is that both of these teams are very closely matched and there’s a lot that could swing the series either way. For the Hurricanes to win, they need to capitalize on their powerplay chances to solve the Rangers goaltending, and they need Mrazek and Reimer to be at their best. If they can get those things, I think the Hurricanes will win.

Be sure to stop by tomorrow for my look at the final play-in matchup in the East, the Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens!

CaniacWrites

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Preview - East Play-in Matchup 2/4: NYI vs FLA

Hello, and welcome back to my series previewing each of the qualifying round playoff matchups! Today, I’ll be looking at the second play-in matchup in the East, the New York Islanders vs the Florida Panthers.

This series will be a rematch of the 2016 Eastern Conference Quarters, a battle which both teams likely won’t have forgotten. The Islanders were victorious in that series in 6 games, with then-captain John Tavares tying Game 6 in the final minute and going on to score the double OT winner to put the Isles through to the second round.

Both of these teams have very different looks now. New York, of course, is distinctly Tavares-less (having left the JT Years and entered the Age of Barzal), and the Panthers have kept their core intact while adding some promising young players and a future Hall of Fame coach in Joel Quenneville. The Islanders won all three games of the season series against Florida in 2019-20.

The Islanders’ defensive style that Barry Trotz began using last season still suits them very, very well. They lost Vezina nominee Robin Lehner to free agency over the summer, but Thomas Greiss - who, along with Lehner, captured the William Jennings trophy for the fewest goals allowed in 2018-19 - has been just as good as he was last year. FA pickup from Colorado Semyon Varlamov has been decent, so their goaltending tandem hasn’t suffered too much from Lehner’s departure. The Islanders still have the 5th fewest Goals Against of any team in the league.

However, New York is, like the Columbus Blue Jackets, another example of a team that finds success by commitee. The Islanders just do it a bit better. They have five players who have scored at least 40 points (nearly six if you count Anthony Beauvillier’s 39) and nine players who have hit double digits in goals. Mat Barzal is an extremely talented and exciting player to watch, even if he does get the merry-go-round going a little too often, and he is the spark that constantly ignites the team’s offense.

Unfortunately, sometimes he’s the only one who can do that. The Islanders have good depth, and when they get offensive contributions from across their lineup, they’re very dangerous. But as a side effect of their well-known defense-first style, they are prone to having difficulty finding the back of the net at times. To go along with having the 5th best Total Goals Against, the Islanders have the 8th worst Total Goals For. In fact, their stingy defense isn’t enough to overcome their at-times equally stingy offense, and they finished the shortened season with a -1 Goal Differential. To win in the playoffs, the saying is that you need your best players to be your best players. If the Islanders can do that - if Greiss plays as well as they know he can, if Barzal can be the catalyst for the offense while also getting depth scoring from the top 6 down - they’re a very good team.

The question is, is Florida better? 

The Panthers’ top 6 is better, at least. Jonathan Huberdeau has rather quietly scored 78 points, putting him tied for 10th in the NHL in points and 7th in assists. The 2011 3rd overall pick also became Florida’s all-time leading scorer earlier this season, passing Olli Jokinen in more than 50 games fewer. Aleksander Barkov is one of the best two-way forwards in the entire league, a perennial Selke and Lady Byng trophy nominee. Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov round out their stars, with both players scoring at least 25 goals and 45 points. They have good depth scoring with Noel Acciari, Frank Vatrano, and Brett Connolly, to name a few, and even defensemen Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad both eclipsed 40 points. 

The Panthers have a glaring issue, though, which is the biggest thing that gives me pause: goaltending. Good goaltenders are at a premium these days, and Florida thought they’d gotten one when they paid Sergei Bobrovsky huge money to sign with them in the summer, and, well... to say that he’s been lackluster is putting it nicely. In 48 starts, he’s posted a 3.23 GAA and .900 SV%, his worst GAA in his career by a significant margin and his second worst SV%. It was only in 2011-12, when it was .899 - a negligible difference, and that was a lockout-shortened season in which he faced almost 700 fewer shots than he did this year. It’s really laughable how much Florida is paying him when you look at his performance this year. And I don’t watch many Panthers games, but the ones I have, he's looked pretty much as bad as the numbers make it seem

Okay, so what are their other options for goaltending, then? One of them is Sam Montembault, a 23-year-old sophomore with an .890% SV and 3.34 GAA in 9 starts - not too encouraging.  Florida’s last hopes in net could rest on the shoulders of rookie Chris Driedger, who posted a 7-2-2 record in his 11 starts. He also has a .938 SV% and 2.05 GAA. 11 games is not a very large sample size, but those are great numbers, and as a Hurricanes fan, Driedger was phenomenal in the game he played against Carolina, stopping 42 of 44 shots. He really was the only reason the Panthers were able to win that game. Of course, doing that in 11 games in the regular season and doing it in the playoffs are two very different things. And it should be noted that neither Montembault nor Driedger have any playoff experience between them. Still, if Bobrovsky continues to underperform, Driedger could be Florida’s best chance to salvage their playoff dreams.

I know this is long, but there’s one last thing I wanted to cover, and that is special teams. Both of these teams are not where they want to be in their special teams. Last year, Florida had the 2nd best powerplay in the NHL at 26.8% and 2nd most PPG with 72. Only Tampa Bay - the team that tied the record for most wins in a season - was better. They have not been able to repeat their success this season. Their powerplay has fallen to 21.3%, putting them 10th. That’s still not bad, but not as good as they hoped.  Meanwhile, it may not shock you to learn that the Islanders inability to score goals applies to their powerplay, too. They’re tied for 7th worst, and 4 of the 6 teams that are below them are teams that did not even make the qualifying round of the Return to Play plan. (Of course, that also means there are 3 teams that didn’t make the play-in that have a better powerplay than New York. Yikes.). As for the penalty kill, you’d think that the Islanders’ defensive style would benefit them on the kill, but that hasn’t exactly been the case either. Their PK is 15th best at 80.7%, which like the Florida powerplay, isn’t bad, but also isn’t great. Florida’s penalty kill, meanwhile, is 20th at 78.5%. Special teams are extremely important in the playoffs, and both Florida and New York are equally average with theirs. I’d maybe give Florida the slight advantage because of their powerplay.

Final Prediction: New York, 3-1

I thought I was going to have a harder time deciding between these teams before I started, but once I got all my thoughts in order and down on the page, I realized that I just cannot see Florida winning with the goaltenders they currently have. Yes, the Islanders sometimes have a problem scoring goals, but the Panthers - especially Bobrovsky - have a far worse problem trying not to allow goals. The Panthers have a more star-studded group of forwards, but it hasn’t helped their special teams like it did last year and it won’t help their goaltending. I just can’t see this series going any way but a repeat of 2016.

Make sure to check back tomorrow for my preview of the Carolina Hurricanes vs the New York Rangers! I am obviously a lifelong Hurricanes fan, so I’m going to try not to be too biased, but either way I’m really looking forward to writing about that series. See you tomorrow!

CaniacWrites

[caniacwrites]

NHL Playoff Previews - East Play-in Matchup 1/4: TOR vs CBJ

Hello everyone, and welcome to the first installment of my NHL playoff previews! Today, I’m looking at the first qualifying round matchup in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets. I’ll first give an overview of how I see the series shaping up, talk about win conditions for each team, and then reveal my pick at the end.

During the regular season, the Leafs and Jackets split their two games (both in October) with the third scheduled for March 21st and cancelled due to the virus. Toronto triumphed 4-1 in Columbus in the Jackets’ season opener, while Columbus took the game at Scotiabank in Toronto 4-3 in overtime.

So, I’ll start by saying that one thing anyone who knows hockey knows is that the sport is almost impossible to predict. You only have to look at last year’s playoffs if for some reason you don’t believe me. Once again this year, there are a lot of matchups that I feel are going to be very close and difficult to predict, but I’m going to try anyway. And for me, this is one of them.

Toronto is a team that looks really good on paper. Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews have been racking up the points, John Tavares has been producing well as usual, and William Nylander had a breakout season for them this year. They have a good balance of skilled young players like Marner/Matthews, Zack Hyman, and Andreas Johnsson and established players/veterans like Tavares, Jason Spezza, and Morgan Reilly. Buuuuuuuut they’ve also had their fair share of issues this season. I’m not going to get into the whole Babcock thing, that ship has sailed and I’m pretty sure everybody knows what went down anyway.

I am, however, going to talk about goaltending. For the Return to Play plan, the NHL is going to allow teams to carry as many goalies as they like, which means that the Leafs setup will likely include all three of the goalies they’ve used this season: Frederik Andersen, Michael Hutchinson, and Jack Campbell. Of these, Andersen and Campbell will be their main duo. Andersen has a 29-13-7 record in 52 starts and a 2.85 GAA, both of which are pretty good. Unfortunately, consistency has been a problem for the Leafs’ goaltending all year. There have been plenty of games where Andersen stood on his head and gave the Leafs every chance to win. The problem? They still lost a lot of those games. There have also been games where Andersen was the only reason the Leafs did manage to win. And of course, there have been games where Andersen really didn’t need to be all that good and the Leafs won anyway. (Campbell was acquired at the deadline, and though he’s posted a 2.63 GAA in 6 games with the Leafs, they only won 3 of those 6 games; it’s really too small of a sample size to talk about here, though.) If the Leafs are going to win this series, they need Freddy Andersen and Jack Campbell to be at their best, and you can just never tell if or when that’s going to happen.

Let’s move on to Columbus now. The Blue Jackets are an interesting case, because despite leading the league with 420 man-games lost to injury - a staggeringly high number - they were still in the thick of the wild card playoff race in the gruelingly competitve Metropolitan division at the suspension of the season. It’s especially impressive when you realize that those injuries have been to some of their most important players. As of the abrupt end to the season, Cam Atkinson, Alex Wennberg, Seth Jones, Josh Anderson, and Alex Texier were all out of Columbus’ lineup. Thanks to the long delay between the season’s end and the Return to Play playoffs, the Jackets have had time to let these players recover.  Of those five, only Josh Anderson is likely not to be ready for the start of the series against Toronto.  Columbus gets things done by committee, and adding back those key guys is going to be huge for them. 

Additionally, Columbus has been getting great goaltending all season long from both Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins. Korpisalo has a 2.60 GAA and .911 SV% in 35 starts, while the rookie Merzlikins has a staggering 2.35 GAA and a .923 SV% (and of course, most will probably remember when he posted 5 shutouts in 8 starts back in late Jan/early Feb). If they can stay healthy, it’s a pretty safe bet that they’ll at least give the Jackets a chance to win every night.

And last but certainly not least, I want to compare one more aspect of these two teams: the defense. Columbus has a clear edge when it comes to their blue line. Seth Jones and Zach Werenski lead the group that also includes Ryan Murray and David Savard, with a few young players rounding out the rest of the top 6. Compare that to the Maple Leafs, who can really only boast Morgan Reilly, Jake Muzzin, and Tyson Barrie (and even then, Barrie hasn’t been half the player Toronto thought they were getting in that trade) along with some less experienced guys in Nikita Zaitsev, Rasmus Sandin, and Travis Dermott. It’s unclear if Martin Marincin or Timothy Liljegren will see any action in the series. Now don’t get me wrong, Toronto has a good group. But guys like Jones and Werenski put Columbus a cut above.

So what does all that mean for my overall prediction? To recap, Toronto has a star-powered forward core and fairly good defense, with at times great but inconsistent goaltending. Columbus, meanwhile, lacks true star power up front and instead grinds their way to wins through committee, but possess an excellent group of defensemen and solid goaltending. Both teams won and lost one game against each other in the regular season.

Final Prediction: Columbus, 3-2

I know, I'm going to get flak for this, and I know I kind of bashed Toronto a bit here. Sorry. And I should say that I think this series could just as easily be won by the Leafs 3-2. But I think that the Blue Jackets’ tenacity, the infusion of important players they’ll have back healthy, and their solid foundation from the net out is going to let them triumph in this one.

Besides, don’t you think it’ll be hanging around in the back of Toronto’s mind that if they win, yet another first round matchup against the Boston Bruins awaits them? I have to admit, I kind of want Toronto to win, just so that I can watch their fans lose their minds when they get knocked out by the Bruins for the 4th time in their last 5 playoff appearances.

See you tomorrow for my preview of the New York Islanders vs the Florida Panthers!

CaniacWrites

[caniacwrites]

Greetings! An Introduction to CaniacWrites

Hello Tumblr!

I’m Austin, also know as CaniacWrites! I’ve decided recently that as an English graduate who loves hockey, I should put my writing skills to use and have some fun talking about hockey with/to other people. So here I am, starting my very own hockey blog.

As of right now, I’m not sure exactly how this blog will be structured. One of my biggest plans was to write article-length pieces about whatever is going on in the NHL that I feel like talking about, and I’m still going to do that. However, I might also post smaller things that strike my fancy, we’ll see.

Starting tomorrow (June 3 2020), I’ll be doing a series of posts where I’ll preview my two cents on each upcoming qualifying-round play-in matchup, and who I think will win. I’ll cover one series per day, beginning in the East with Columbus vs. Toronto tomorrow. I hope you’ll stick around to read them :)

Anyway, that’s about it for my introduction. Hopefully I haven’t bored any first-time visitors, and I’ll see you all tomorrow for my first real post!