#My first mistake was not actually going into detail on how a dinosaur would interact with a city environment
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There's a Great Big Beautiful Tomorrow
Chapter 29: Robots, Reptiles, and Robinsons (Rewrite!)
(I really wasn't happy with my previous version of this chapter, and there were parts I had forgotten to add before, so I gave it a much needed redo! It actually got so long that there’s going to be a second part!)
Frankie watched from his perch on an upside down bucket as Lewis and Franny lifted the fallen shelf off Carl, clearing away the junk that covered him. Thankfully he only seemed to have a couple tiny scratches and dents, but nothing that couldn’t be fixed.
Lewis wasted no time opening Carl’s chestplate and working on the dead battery inside. Normally Carl would charge on a port, but he didn’t have one on hand. “Keep an eye out while I fix Carl,” Lewis spoke as he dug around in the toolbox. Franny scooped up Frankie and plopped him down on her head. “Roger that, captain!” She gave a salute and spun around.
She paused a second. “Wait… Carl?” Franny’s question was cut short when a loud thud shook the entire building. The electricity flickered and bits of dust fell from the ceiling.
The two stood frozen in silence for a few seconds. Franny was the first to speak up.
“...I think a bird just flew into a window.”
Lewis would’ve turned to give her a bewildered look, had he not been interrupted by the Joyce Williams Elementary sign crashing into a nearby classroom. That was enough to send the children into a panic, running from their room and into the hallways, trying to find their way out of the building. A chestnut haired man in a button down shirt and tie stumbled out after them.
“Lewis?” Mr.Willerstein did a double take when he saw his most hardworking student. What was he doing here, though? Why was there a robot?
Lewis could tell he had questions, but he needed to handle the fleeing students first.
He glanced towards the kids running off and back to Lewis. Concern written all over, he gestured for the two to stay where they were. “Stay put, Lewis,” he called as he turned to run after the other children.
Franny clasped her hands over her ears when the fire alarms went off suddenly. More children came running from their rooms and through the halls, sensing the rising panic all around.
“What do we do?” Franny shouted over the chaos. Lewis looked down at Carl and his gaze hardened with determination.
“We keep moving forward.”
------
Windows rattled as a shrill roar pierced the air.
The ground shook with every thundering footstep the monster took. A couple in their car froze up in fear when a massive reptilian snout leaned in to sniff at them. It huffed, fogging the windshield. He was only curious, but he didn’t always know his own size.
Even if he was just a baby, he was still the King of the Beasts.
Tiny took a leap onto the school building, his massive tail slamming into the Joyce Williams Elementary sign and sending it smashing into the side of the building. The entire structure shook a moment - somehow triggering the fire alarms - and another window shattered when his tail rammed into it whilst gaining his balance, but thankfully, it stayed standing.
Adult Franny rushed forward and whistled sharply. “Tiny!”
The beast looked around before spotting her, his mouth breaking into a large smile at seeing one of his people. He jumped up off the building and came crashing down in front of the woman, shaking the ground and the trees, even causing a few people to lose their balance and stumble. Tiny leaned down, closing his eyes and making a happy sound when Franny reached forward and petted his snout.
Crisis averted…
Without warning, the front doors to the school flew open, screaming children and panicking adults rushing from the building. Tiny stood up sharply and spun around at the commotion, failing to notice the powerline strung above.
The beast let out a pained screech as a shower of sparks came down, stumbling backwards (nearly stepping on Franny) and knocking over a few vehicles with his tail. Many of the children froze at the sight, but most kept running in all directions. Tiny let out a furious roar at the pain.
Art’s face hardened. This was no time to watch. He had to take action!
“Everyone!” He called with his most assertive voice. “Teachers and students, this way! The building is unsafe! Go to the baseball field!” He hurried ahead to help the children and lead the way to the baseball field. Uncle Fritz followed suit, helping guide kids that strayed away or got lost back to the group.
Wilbur made a mad dash for the school doors. “Wilbur! Don’t!” Franny cried. She managed to catch the back of his shirt, stopping him in his tracks.
“You and Lasz get Tiny out of here! I have to find Lewis!” He pulled back his shirt and kept running. Franny wanted to argue, but her attention went back to Tiny when she heard a car accident somewhere behind her.
While most people ran away screaming, crowds of awestruck onlookers began to form.
They had to do something, and they had to do it now.
“Need some extra help?”
Franny felt her heart swell with joy at the sound of her brother’s voice.
------
Inside the building, Franny and Lewis looked around in surprise when the power cut out completely. Emergency lights came on and alarms rang, signaling anyone left in the building to leave.
Thinking fast, Franny grabbed Frankie and gave him a shake, causing the frog’s belly to glow. Lewis raised an eyebrow. “I caught him eating some glow sticks earlier,” she shrugged. He hummed and nodded before going back to work. Carl sparked and twitched, but fell limp again. Try again. Keep moving forward.
Sounds of panic came from outside the building. Everything had erupted into chaos.
Without warning, someone came crashing through the window, sliding across the floor and bumping into the wall of lockers with a hearty laugh. The moment Lewis recognized him, he jumped up.
“Uncle Gaston?!”
The stuntman looked at them upside down from where he laid on his back. He laughed again and jumped up, shaking off the broken glass and giving them a thumbs up.
“Didn’t think you could have all the fun without me, did you?” He teased.
“Everyone’s been looking all over for you!”
“Really! What a surprise! I’ve been looking all over for them, too!”
In the darkness, Carl’s blue eyes lit up a moment. His head twitched. “Will…burrr..?”
He sparked and fell quiet. Again. Try again. Keep moving forward. Another roar outside shook the windows. Gaston looked up. “Sounds like they need me! You got this Lewis!” In the flashing exit lights, Gaston suddenly caught sight of a young girl looking up at him with curious brown eyes. He knew those eyes anywhere. He smiled warmly, adjusted his helmet, and ran off into the danger again.
------
A police cruiser skidded to a stop just before hitting Tiny’s legs. The furious beast was on a rampage, leaning down and bumping the cruiser onto its side with his head. Laszlo wasted no time landing on the upturned side, pulling the door open and reaching for the men.
“Grab hold! Hurry!”
Tiny tried to use his nose to nudge the artist out of the way, but Laszlo stood firm.
“Tiny! No!” The officer holding onto Laszlo looked incredulous. “That thing’s yours?!” Laszlo went back to helping him up. “Family pet, actually! He’s usually much better behaved than this, I apologize.” The officer was only half paying attention, staring wide eyed at where the artist’s feet hovered over the ground. Was he flying?!
A chuckle came from on Tiny’s back. Grandpa Bud climbed up to Tiny’s head, giving it a pat. “That’s quite enough now! Yer causing quite the fuss today, aren’t you?”
“Uncle Bud! You’re back! Where have you been?”
“A lot of places! The park, in the canal, the ice cream parlor, the park, the grocery store, the bowling alley, the park, the movie theater…”
Bud continued listing places off as the officer turned to Laszlo. “Are all you people like this…?”
The artist suddenly seemed distracted, feeling around his coat for something. After a moment of searching, he pulled something out of his pocket. Was that… an ear? Was it real…? “Oh good, I still have it! I thought for a moment I must’ve lost it. Sorry, what was your question?”
------
Franny desperately looked around for something she could use to stop the dinosaur. If she didn’t do something, someone would be hurt! On her shoulder, Frankie searched with her.
“Boss! There!” Frankie tugged on her ribbon to get her attention before he pointed a green finger up at the school’s flagpole. A rope! Franny caught on instantly. “Perfect!”
Her red stilettos clicked on the sidewalk as she rushed over to the flagpole.
“Help me untie it!”
Frankie hopped onto the pole, working together with Franny to get the rope undone. It was far too stable. “Damn it!” Franny punched the pole in her anger, making a sharp metallic ‘ding!’ She instantly regretted it when her hand stung, leaving her briefly doubling over in pain and shaking her knuckle.
“That’s not gonna work, we need to cut it-”
Suddenly, she heard her brother’s voice among the crowds, crying out for her.
“Franny! Franny, where are you?! Franny!”
“Art! Help me cut this rope!”
“How do you know my name? Where’s my sister?”
Only when Franny whipped around to look at him, did it dawn on her that it was the past version of Art. Shit.
Before she could give him an answer, he noticed the genetically modified Frankie perched on her shoulder and froze. The frog. There’s no way she would have left the building if she didn’t have her frog. She had to still be in there.
Faster than he’s ever run for football, for fun, for anything, Art took off towards the building. He yanked off his letterman jacket, wearing his pizza uniform underneath.
While Franny watched her brother run, a broken piece of glass from one of the toppled cars caught Frankie’s eye. With a flick of his tongue, he pulled it over, grabbed it, and began to slice through the rope.
------
Carl gave a shout as his entire body locked up. After a couple sparks, he slowly stood to his feet. He took a (nonexistent) breath in, stood up straight… and lost power.
Still in pose, he fell stiff as a board, his face hitting the ground with a metallic thud.
Lewis and Franny watched in a wide eyed silence.
“He had a good second-and-a-half of life,” Franny spoke as she petted her frog. Lewis hummed and kneeled down next to Carl to try again.
“Lewis!” Wilbur came sprinting around the corner and down the dark hall. “We can’t stay here! The dinosaur is… back… What happened to Carl?” He pointed down at the robot.
“Carl, bro, we’re in a crisis! Get up!”
Lewis grabbed a wrench and reopened the chest plate. “He’s still out of power! I’m trying to fix him. Since you’re here, hold this cable for me?”
“Turns out Frankie makes a good light source!”
Wilbur meant to look up at Franny at that moment, but his gaze caught the classroom door instead. In the mad rush to leave the school, it was left slightly ajar. Something about the darkness of the classroom behind it really freaked him out.
Slowly, the world seemed to be going quiet.
The fire alarms, the roars and shouts outside, and Lewis’s instructions began to drift away from Wilbur’s thoughts, the imaginary sounds of rain and thunder taking its place.
------
Check out the chapter on my Archive!
#New and improved!#As always thank you all for your support!#My first mistake was not actually going into detail on how a dinosaur would interact with a city environment#oh what a fool I was#we're talking DINOSAURS#GET WILD#KNOCK STUFF OVER#BUMP INTO THINGS#meet the robinsons#mtr#disney#disney fanfiction#fanfiction#meet the robinsons fanfiction#lewis robinson#franny framagucci#carl the robot#carl robinson#carl meet the robinsons#wilbur robinson#franny robinson#laszlo robinson#cousin laszlo#art framagucci#uncle art#fritz robinson#uncle fritz#gaston framagucci#uncle gaston#bud robinson
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ok so for keeping up the tradition of commentary reblogs.. allow me to blab. if there's spelling mistakes.. ignore. chances are i was so excited i smashed the keyboard instead of coherently typing.. so. (sorry this took me a few days to read.. i'm a busy bee..) this is about to be a long one.
His mom is the first one to enter the hallway to meet you two at the door. She is quite beautiful, her hair darker than Matt’s. She was shorter, wearing a nice blouse and jeans. She welcomes you both with a bear hug and cheers of excitement. When she pulls you out of the embrace, she gets a better look at you.
this is such a simple little description and yet i love it. "a bear hug and cheers of excitement" this is one of those lines where you can just visualize it so perfectly even without an insurmountable amount of detail.. that's perfection right there. also loved the mom already at that point she's so sweet.
She’s slender, her dark locks framing her chiseled jawline. She looks like Matt, but more like a person who belongs in a Renaissance painting. Her eyes are a more dimensional brown. She has freckles scattered around her pale complexion, which only added her beauty.
never seen ellie described this way.. goddess bless the creativity here. like um yes my girl belongs in a renaissance painting! yes those freckles add to her beauty! yes yes yes! waiter, more of this please!!!!
Then she laughs. A deep guttural laugh. “What?” “Nothing,” She brings her front teeth down on her bottom lip before speaking up again, “It’s a tattoo I can’t show you.” “Why not?”
i forgor to copy the other lines after this but like HEHHHHHHHHEEEEEE this had me in a gigglefest.. i kid you not i became the ultimate gigglemonster in this moment.. of course miss ellieass williass maximumass has titty tats.. also the laugh. ugh i perfectly envisioned that laugh in her tone with little to go off of. that's how you know a piece of literature is truly great. so many of these lines are inarguably so delicious.. so perfect in her voice goodness gracious..
But something inside you was crawling its way out. This small interaction with your asshole boyfriend’s sister was enough to send you into a spiral. You never gave a girl a chance so how were you supposed to know you did not like it?
"BUT SOMETHING INSIDE YOU WAS CRAWLING ITS WAY OUT" i repeat very loudly from the sidelines "BUT SOMETHING INSIDE YOU WAS CRAWLING ITS WAY OUT" the visceral imagery of this against the situation makes so perfectly for a piece of poetry. god. i strangely focus on singular sentences when it comes to reblogs like these but like.. these are the things that echo in the chamber of my mind when i'm pre-occupied somewhere else in the world. great job. love it. keep it going. please. #EdgingToPoetry
Every so often during the meal, you would place your hand on Matt’s leg. He would push you away, rolling his eyes when you glared at him. When the conversation came around to him, he would find a way to demean you and then continue blabbing about school or his internship.
next he's gonna be blabbing for mercy when i aim this gun at him. Hate him so much thank you for creating the epitome of ugly behaviour for me to pick on today. #EradicateMatt2024 #HeProbablySucksAtFortnite
Butterflies erupt in your stomach when you think about wearing Ellie’s clothes, though, and you completely drown out the separate conversation happening around the table. You feel a hand creep up your thigh, but it's not coming from the side you expect.
heh.. love the delivery of this.. like of course she's a little cheeky.. a little slutty like this.. my heart would actually leap out of my esophagus watching that tattooed hand creep up my thigh like Heebie Jeebies but also like Heyyyyy.. Hump me please.
“Sweatpants are fine,” You retort, not wanting her to list off anything else, “Do you have any t-shirts I could wear?”
ellie proceeds to list off all the funky boxers she has.. Ermm spongebob boxers.. dinosaur boxers.. pizza boxers.. dollar print boxers.. Woah a thong how'd that get there?! oh my god i need to be put down i'm acting flippin insane today because of this fic
“Jesus Christ,” Ellie stammers, before plopping on her bed. You shakingly step into the sweatpants she gifted you to wear, unsure how to respond. You rack your brain trying to gain the confidence you had before dinner, but your mouth is dry and your brain is dazed from seeing Ellie in her pajamas.
another paragraph that was so easy to envision.. like yes of course ellie going "Jesus Christ! Goodness Gracious! Bloody Hell!" is real when she sees a pair of titties. braless or not. the way you make these scenes hit so good everytime.. gods above..
She is looking at you like you are her prey. You almost fell to your knees and begged her to put you out of your misery, but you resisted. Instead, she just stands up, trying to catch your nervous glances.
again the first fucking sentence HITS. AND THE LAST ONE. AND THE MIDDLE ONE. literally sweating rn. just imagining her "trying to catch your nervous glances" is like. so specifically hot. something about the eyes and being so punctual with the way they watch someone. god..
“Show me now.” You watch all the blood drain from her face. She fumbles with her inked hands, waiting for you to say you didn’t mean it. That moment never comes. “Are you sure about that?”
HEEEEEEE YES I'M SURE ABOUT THAT! i swear you are so good with the deliverance of so many things.. this is why i am such a slut for simplicity like it really does the trick.. the way you can end me in under 10k words is abominable like do i need to arrest you for writing something so yummylicious..
Each piece is connected somehow. Her stomach piece is what appeared to be a dragon flying up towards her under-boob area. It was extremely detailed and took up a large half of her upper stomach. Around her collarbones were very intricate lines that almost rain over her body like veins. They spread down her chest onto her boobs, where around her nipples were two matching daggers appearing to go through her areola.
"rain over her body like veins".. "rain over her body like veins".. "rain over her body like veins".. "rain over her body like veins".. sorry i just had to keep repeating that cause god. you know when something is so thought-provoking and lyrical you have to jump off the nearest cliff like.. oh my god i'm going to strangle you but in like a loving way.
You reach out and touch her tits, ever so delicately. You use your finger to outline the daggers, smiling to yourself. Being this close sends a pulsating feeling down to your pussy. You have never felt a lightning strike quite like it before.
crying.. screaming.. creaming.. mostly that last one. you kill me effortlessly with your satinlike words and i am forever grateful.. fuck my day is boiled down to this modicum of time where i am just.. EATING THIS UP! (me when i focus on the poetry more than the smut.. don't worry i'll get there eventually)
She’s letting you feel her up, but when you change your tune and start pinching at her nipples, she throws her head back with a groan. “Hmm, you should try putting one in your mouth,” She remarks, hoping to God you would be eager enough to do so. She was very in tune with you because you leaned forward taking her right nipple into your mouth. She’s guiding you around every turn, whispering how good you are doing already.
insert that gif where the skull is like.. smirking or whatever. i had to bite my finger. cross my heart hope to die. swearing to gods and goddesses above. like "HMM YOU SHOULD TRY PUTTING ONE IN YOUR MOUHAUAAYHTHHH" AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH oh my god sometimes i wish i could voice record commentary reblogs because i am facetiously reacting to this shit.. i swear i almost buttbootyblasted from my seat and accidently formed a astralnymphh-shaped hole in the ceiling.. but also yeah i just really wanna suck ellie willy nipple so.. this consummated that.
Your stomach is in knots, but you know that this is what you really want. “Okay, Ellie. Please do whatever you think I will like.” “You’re gonna like it all, baby girl. And if it gets a bit dodgy, you just let me know and we can stop.”
love a girl who puts out safety measures.. also i'm not usually an enthusiast for "baby girl" but idk.. something about ellie in this fic.. the atmosphere.. it just works so good. need a good meditation after this, or a walk in the park. FUCK.
You shake your head positively as she smiles between your legs. She starts by kissing up your thighs, keeping you completely in a trance. When her mouth finds your slit, she licks a long stripe. She takes her time, working her tongue in between your pussy lips. The wet sound that happens when she shakes her head is pornographic. When she finds your clit, she encases it and starts to suck lightly. You scream out in pleasure, never feeling this sensitive before. It usually took a whole lot of Matt lazily fingering you and fucking you to illicit such a response. Ellie is building up an orgasm within you in record time.
if you find a chunk of your fic missing when you go back to reread your lovely work (which, please do, you deserve it).. this part landed in my stomach.. sorry. i got hungry.
Your response was your silence. You had never explored much with him, simply because he was quick to get his nut before traversing to other territories.
me fixating only on the first sentence. average astralnymphh moment. sorry but it just like killed me. the way it "your response was your silence" can we give a round of applause..
“Now move your hips back,” Her hands are gripping onto your hips, showing you the way, “And forth.”
i just let out the evilest most mischievous giggle at this oh my god i'm smelling grilled cheese i'm sweating i'm going insane WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO ME??? please continue with the ellie fics this is feeding me the sustenance i most desperately gulp for.. UGH
“Practice makes perfect, baby. Keep moving those hips.”
not even gonna say anything just enjoy the line itself.
there's more notes and paragraphs i had in my mind but i won't ramble on anymore.. i fear i have done some disgusting damage already in this single reblog.. i have no other words. just. love it. worth the wait. i need to bite ellie's arm or i need her to bite mine. idk. i'm volatile right now and may explode. please write more i'm a huge supporter oh my god. i'm converted.
Dagger In The Heart
pairing: ellie williams x afab! reader
post about palestine - please be aware and know who your content comes from. this post informs you about the tlou writers and creators, as well as how to help the Palestinian people.
word count: 6.1k words
warnings: MINORS DNI!!! 18+ ty!!! abusive relationship mentioned, reader's bf is a cheating asshole, calls her names, makes comments about weight, talks of cheating, some lowkey cheating from reader, sharing clothes with ellie, ellie is 18+ but her age not specified, talks of hardly eating food at dinner, reader is a bit confused with her sexuality and wants to explore (which is fine!!! and normal!!!), wlw relations, pussy eating, fingering, tribbing, tattoos? lots of tattoos, dirty talk, reader being a bit desperate, getting caught (but not really), mentions of a strap, men being drunk and stupid. that's it. I think.
description: when you get the chance to meet your asshole boyfriend’s family, you take a liking to his sister, ellie. when a conversation about her tattoos turns into talks of what you’re really into, you can’t help but want to explore it more.
author’s note: hi girls, gays, and theys! I am so happy to be bringing this request to you. it was an anon request from july and I just suck at getting my life together to actually write. but here we are. FYI, I don't condone this behavior or cheating. anyway I hope you enjoy. I will also be putting this on my ao3 soon, so if you see it there, don't worry, it's just me (;
“You gotta chill, babe. Your anxiety is giving me anxiety.”
He was never very good with comforting you, so you bite back your snappy comment and just fake a smile.
You had been dating your boyfriend Matt for almost a year. You two met in your college biology class and really bonded over your love for folk music and Greek food. He had kind eyes, mousy brown hair and the brightest smile you had ever seen.
At first, you thought this was the best relationship you ever could ask for, but Matt grew distant after four months together. You didn’t know why, but his temper had shown itself one too many times. He fought with you constantly. He was quite jealous. You could never be seen with another boy without accusations of cheating. But every time you two argued, he always came back with an apology and a bouquet of flowers. You could not help but believe you could fix him.
It had been 10 months, you had to brave meeting his family. Unlike you, his family lived two towns over and he visited them quite often. He was close to his younger brother and mom, so he made a point to see them as much as he could.
He brought up the idea of meeting them back around the holidays, but you were planning to board a flight and visit your family across the country. He understood but was pretty disappointed you could not try his mom’s infamous pumpkin pie.
You had no excuse when summer came. So here you are, standing with him at his childhood home’s front door as he scrambled to find his keys.
You were sporting something more dressed up than your normal. Matt loved this one black dress on you, so you decided to wear that with some cute flats. You were sorely regretting the shoe decision, the pointed-toed shoes squeezed your big toe and the arch was not high enough to be comfortable.
He unlocks the deadbolt and the red door jolts open. You are instantly met with the scent of BBQ and cornbread. His childhood is cozy and lived in. The entrance is lined with shoes, everything from high heels to sneakers that have run through countless puddles. It was a sigh of relief, they were a no-shoes in the house family. You kick off your uncomfortable shoes, holding on to Matt’s shoulder for balance.
His mom is the first one to enter the hallway to meet you two at the door. She is quite beautiful, her hair darker than Matt’s. She was shorter, wearing a nice blouse and jeans. She welcomes you both with a bear hug and cheers of excitement. When she pulls you out of the embrace, she gets a better look at you.
“You are more beautiful in person, pictures do not do your gorgeous smile justice,” She remarks, squeezing your hands.
You shake your head, trying your best not to let out that you are beyond nervous about this entire encounter. “You are too kind, thank you so much for hosting us.”
“Come meet the crew!”
Matt eyes meet yours, noticing how tense you are. You had hoped for him to hold your hand and guide you through this experience, but instead he just nudges you with his shoulder. He brushes by, heading after his mom.
The hallway opens into a kitchen and living room, which is littered with random strangers who, in some way, resemble your boyfriend.
His brother, Collin, stands up first from the barstools, racing over to your boyfriend to dap him up. When he glances your way, you just smile and introduce yourself. He extends his hand to shake yours, which you gladly accept.
His dad is next to stand up from a recliner in the living room. He makes your acquaintance quickly, telling you he’s so glad to finally meet you after months of hearing all about you.
When he moves away from in front of you, she comes into focus. You had not even noticed her sitting on the couch across the room.
She’s slender, her dark locks framing her chiseled jawline. She looks like Matt, but more like a person who belongs in a Renaissance painting. Her eyes are a more dimensional brown. She has freckles scattered around her pale complexion, which only added her beauty.
You do not realize you are gawking until Matt nudges you. “This is my sister, Ellie.”
You blink again, bringing your focus back to the situation. She extends her hand, and that’s when you take notice to her tattoo-filled arms. Her tank top raises a bit and you catch a glance of her midriff, exposing more tattoos littering her abdomen.
“Nice to meet ya. Heard plenty about you.”
You swallow, taking her hand and shaking it. “I hope good things.”
“No, I only tell her the worst things about you.”
Everyone giggles except you and Ellie. Luckily it is filling the room with enough noise to drown out your thoughts about your boyfriend’s beautiful sister.
Ellie rolls her eyes before whispering, “Don’t worry, it’s only ever good things, sweet cheeks.”
-
Matt’s dad loves to talk and you can tell it annoys Ellie. You were seated outside on their patio set, drinking some homemade lemonade Matt’s mom was adamant you had. He was helping her with all the sides that were still yet to be made, so you took up Ellie’s offer to check out the backyard space. You did not expect Matt’s dad to come with you two and tell you all about the flower beds he curated.
But you listened, smiling and nodding while sipping on your tart drink.
He got occupied with grilling, so you and Ellie were left on the couch near a very used and abused firepit.
You wait for her to say something. She was truly making you nervous, her eyes trailing you every so often.
“So, you and Matt met in science class?”
You finally look back at her wandering eyes, “Yeah, he was my biology partner.”
“Gotcha,” She leans forward, putting her elbows on her knees. You do not know what comes over you, but you cannot physically pull your eyes away from her arms as they flex. “You good?”
“I like your tattoos,” You barely manage to say, “They are… hot.”
You want to jump into the unlit firepit for that one.
No other adjective came to your horny mind? Really?
She giggles, enjoying watching you practically squirm under her gaze. “Thanks, dude. My ex girlfriend was a tattoo artist so I let her practice on me.”
You remember a moment about 5 months ago when Matt mentioned his sister being gay, but for some reason, you finally connect that duh it’s Ellie, you fucking idiot.
You also remember some choice words he had about her. You remember cringing when he called her a slur and said she could not keep a girl to save her life. You held your tongue and refused to reply.
“That’s awesome,” You scoot closer to her, bridging more of the gap between you two on the couch, “Which one is your favorite?”
She smiles at your intrusion into her space and questions. You realize you two are almost sizing each other up, right in front of her family, your boyfriend’s family. They could easily peek outside of the kitchen windows and see you two eye fucking each other. She leans back, her eyes tracing all the tattoos on her arms.
Then she laughs. A deep guttural laugh.
“What?”
“Nothing,” She brings her front teeth down on her bottom lip before speaking up again, “It’s a tattoo I can’t show you.”
“Why not?”
She looks towards the window, checking on her brother and mom. Her expression changes when she turns back to you.
“Because I’m not pulling my tits out in front of my family.”
Your pussy practically pulses when you hear her say it. What is wrong with you? You are dating her brother. What is wrong with you?!
“Your… boobs are tattooed?”
She nods slowly, bringing her one hand up to your bare exposed thigh, “Bet that shakes a sweet one like you to your core.”
The comment insinuates that you are an innocent little girl who knows nothing about the world. And sure Matt is your first real boyfriend. Sure he was the first person ever to eat you out because your high school crushes did not even know that was a thing. Sure you never have been sexually promiscuous. Sure you thought you were straight.
Sure.
But something inside you was crawling its way out. This small interaction with your asshole boyfriend’s sister was enough to send you into a spiral. You never gave a girl a chance so how were you supposed to know you did not like it?
“What if your family wasn’t around?”
Ellie is gobsmacked by your comment, her jaw practically hitting the floor. You can tell she realized she was flying too close to the sun. She pulls her hand away from your leg.
“You are my brother’s girlfriend. I am not going to be the one to corrupt you,” She states, scooting over a bit away from you. Your cheeks get flushed, instantly feeling embarrassed for asking such a question. But the more you sat in silence, the more you realized that you really did not care. The feelings Ellie made you feel within the last 10 minutes were more exciting than any feeling Matt had given you in 10 months.
You clear your throat, “Luckily for you, Ellie, you would not be the one to corrupt me. That has already been done.”
She looks at you quizzically, “Is that so?”
“Yeah, I may look sweet and innocent,” You creep in close to her, “But I am really a freak.”
Now you are just lying.
Before she can utter a word, Matt’s brother comes out to let you two know dinner was done. You hope and pray he didn’t take notice to how close you two were. Or how Ellie stared at your ass as you walked away.
-
You sit between Matt and Ellie at the table.
Every so often during the meal, you would place your hand on Matt’s leg. He would push you away, rolling his eyes when you glared at him. When the conversation came around to him, he would find a way to demean you and then continue blabbing about school or his internship.
You answered questions from his mom and dad, but you were sorely uninterested in them. But then the conversation comes around as to whether you two would be staying the night tonight. At this point, Matt had already had four beers, and you knew he probably would not want you driving his new Mustang.
“You can take Matt’s bed and he can sleep on the couch,” His mom suggests, indicating that you two would not be sleeping together. You understood that they were a bit more traditional, but you were not expecting to sleep in your boyfriend's childhood bed without him.
“That’s a great idea, Ma. We can stay, right?”
You look at the plate of practically untouched food in front of you. You just nod, finally saying, “As long as you give me some comfy sweatpants to wear.”
“Mine are all back at my apartment, but I’m sure Ellie has something you could borrow. Plus, you probably wouldn’t fit my sweatpants.”
Matt constantly made comments about your figure and how he could not share clothes with you. He refused to share his clothes with you, stating that you would not be able to squeeze into them and you also “left your scent on everything”.
God, he made you feel terrible about yourself.
Butterflies erupt in your stomach when you think about wearing Ellie’s clothes, though, and you completely drown out the separate conversation happening around the table. You feel a hand creep up your thigh, but it's not coming from the side you expect.
Her hand is so soft and delicate as it creeps up your leg. You cannot help but glance at her direction, catching her smiling over at you.
“Don’t worry, I got something you can wear.”
-
Dinner finishes up and Matt expresses that he wants to go for a round of drinks with his high school friends and brother at the local tavern down the street. He never asks if you want to go, telling you “It would just be high school friends that you don’t know, anyway.”
He tells you that his Mom and Ellie would get you all set up. He gives you a pat on the back, and heads to the door, right behind his brother. You watch him leave and almost breathe a sigh of relief.
When you turn back, you see his Mom already going upstairs.
“I’m gonna get your bed all set up and then I’m probably going to retire to my bed, too.” She states, slowly making her way up the wooden staircase.
You wanted to scream because this only meant one thing. You were alone with Ellie.
You follow her up the stairs and look around the hallway. She heads to the right and begins pointing at the only room with the light on. You didn’t even know that Ellie was upstairs.
“Have Ellie get you something to wear, I’ll make up your bed!”
The door swings open and Ellie stands there, having changed into her own bedtime clothes. And for fucks sake, she’s not making this easy for you.
She is sporting a tight white tank, no bra, and shorts that ride up to the very tops of her thighs. Her legs are tattooed as well, but not as much as her arms. There isn’t a touch of her freckled skin that isn’t marked with art. You can almost see through her shirt, making your mouth go dry.
“Let’s see what you fit into!”
She lets you into her space. Her room is decorated with posters of space and heavy metal bands. From the looks of one corner of her room, she’s an artist. She has different art styles, anywhere from charcoal to watercolors, littering a desk and her walls. It’s messy, but it’s not dirty. It smells like incense and clean laundry.
She walks over to her dresser, opens up the top drawer. Everything is neatly folded, which kind of surprises you.
“I have some sweatpants, shorts, boxers-“
“Sweatpants are fine,” You retort, not wanting her to list off anything else, “Do you have any t-shirts I could wear?”
“Well of course I do, sweet cheeks. What do you want, loose or tight?”
You stare at her dumbfounded. You know what she’s doing. And you hate yourself for liking it so much.
She pulls out a pair of navy blue sweatpants, still waiting for your reply.
“Loose.”
She starts to dig through another drawer when Matt’s mom pops her head in.
“It’s all set up for you, sweetheart. If you need anything, you let one of us know. I’m going to downstairs if you need me.”
You smile, thankfully. “Thank you so much, Mrs. Williams.”
“If she needs anything, I’m sure I could help her find her way,” Ellie says, absentmindedly. She pulls out a white t-shirt from her drawer and tosses it at you.
“Goodnight, girls!”
And then you two are alone. Ellie slowly saunters to her door and shuts it.
“You can get dressed here. Just make sure what I gave you fits.”
You silently turned your back to her, tossing your hair over your shoulder. “Can you unzip me?”
You are not even thinking straight. You are so caught up with being alone with the girl you have had weird sexual tension with. She walks over to you confidently, before grabbing the top of your black dress, which lands right at the middle of your back. She pulls down the zipper, ensuring it reaches the very end of its track.
The hairs on your back stand up in her wake. You breathe deeply, before shimmying the dress off your shoulders. You were wearing a bra, so you were just going to keep it on. You step out of the dress, leaving you in just underwear and the push-up bra Matt gifted you not too long ago.
You don’t turn to her, but she just comes around to your front, nonchalantly.
“Jesus Christ,” Ellie stammers, before plopping on her bed. You shakingly step into the sweatpants she gifted you to wear, unsure how to respond. You rack your brain trying to gain the confidence you had before dinner, but your mouth is dry and your brain is dazed from seeing Ellie in her pajamas.
You finally manage to glance up at her hungry eyes, smiling softly.
“I never knew I would be jealous of my brother.”
You swallow, “Jealous?”
“Yeah, he gets to have someone like you every night and I can’t even find someone worth hanging out with around here. Never thought a nerd like him would win over a woman like you.”
You are standing in the sweatpants and your bra, not able to digest her words completely. A woman like you?
“Your brother is sweet. And we don’t have sex every night.”
“Just sweet?” She steps a bit closer to you, “And I said nothing about sex, darling, I said he gets to have you.”
She is looking at you like you are her prey. You almost fell to your knees and begged her to put you out of your misery, but you resisted. Instead, she just stands up, trying to catch your nervous glances.
“H-he, uh, does what he can, when we d-do, yanno.”
Her fingers trace up your arm, her eyes trailing as she does it. You bite the inside of your cheek, waiting for her response. She clicks her tongue a couple of times, shaking her head.
“I am sure he tries,” She sputters, standing back from you, “Do you even really like him?”
You furrow your eyebrows, suddenly snapping out of the situation you are currently in. You reflect for a moment.
Matt was an asshole but you sometimes enjoyed his company. He made you laugh on occasion. But deep down, you knew that he wasn’t made for you. He lacked emotional intelligence and made sure to put you down any chance he got. You had inklings he was talking to other girls and his friends were probably the most intolerable people on your college campus. And then there was that one time when the inklings were just.
The realization that you maybe didn’t like him made you sick. You wasted so much time and now you have met his family.
“When he’s not mean to me. When he isn’t cheating on me.” You admit quietly, almost too humiliated to say it.
She crooks her neck, “He cheated on you?”
You hate talking about it, it made you feel as though you were never good enough. He made it out that it was your fault because you would not have sex with him when you had the flu. “It was just some hand stuff, baby,” he said to you.
“Just once. I forgave him because he told me he loved me.”
“People who love you don’t hurt you like that,” Ellie says without a beat.
“Yeah, I guess you’re right.”
“Is he mean to you all the time?”
You think back to the last nice thing he said to you. Your ass looks fat in that dress. And even that could be seen as a bad thing. You shake your head, trying to find a good way to paint her brother. From the looks of it, she doesn’t really like him all that much anyway.
“Most of the time.”
“So, what I’m hearing is my brother is an asshole that doesn’t know how to treat a woman both in life and in the bedroom. Is that what you’re saying?”
You stand there pondering her question, coming up with nothing. She was right, but were you ready to admit that?
So you shrug.
Ellie stands with her arms crossed now, chewing on the inside of her lip. She’s contemplating something, her eyes falling to the floor for a moment.
“Listen, I am not just saying this because it has taken everything in my power to resist sinking my teeth into you,” The first half of the sentence put your heart in your throat. Nonetheless, she carries on, “But I have an inkling that you don’t like my brother at all. I think you like girls and you’ve never had the chance to explore that. You want to say you are a freak, but you really don’t know what that even means.”
“Ellie, I d-”
“You need to break up with my brother,” She states plainly, “And then, after all is said and done, I can show what it looks like to be taken care of.”
You agree, sadly. You do need to break up with Matt. And on the basis that you believe that he’s probably at the bar hanging out with old friends, probably with other girls, probably flirting with those other girls. You decide you are not going to wait anymore. He cheated on you once, what’s stopping him now? Ellie was right about everything, and while that revelation changes your entire perspective on life, you settle on jumping head first.
“Show me now.”
You watch all the blood drain from her face. She fumbles with her inked hands, waiting for you to say you didn’t mean it. That moment never comes.
“Are you sure about that?”
Swallowing hard, you just nod. You do not even realize what you are getting yourself into, but the undeniable chemistry cannot be ignored anymore. You don’t even want to waste another thought on Matt. You know if you think too hard about it, you’ll talk yourself back into staying with him.
Ellie’s face gets closer to yours and your lips connect seamlessly. She wastes no time, bringing her hands down to your waist to pull you in. You wrap your arms around her neck while fireworks erupt in your chest.
Her lips taste like mint and a dab pen your college roommate made you hit a couple of months ago. She was borderline intoxicating.
She backs you up towards her bed, letting your knees hit the edge of the mattress. You plop down, disconnecting from her lips.
Through hooded lids, she asks you, “Do you want to see my favorite tattoo, then?”
Your breathing hitches as she does not even wait for a response, she just pulls her tank top over her head.
Each piece is connected somehow. Her stomach piece is what appeared to be a dragon flying up towards her under-boob area. It was extremely detailed and took up a large half of her upper stomach. Around her collarbones were very intricate lines that almost rain over her body like veins. They spread down her chest onto her boobs, where around her nipples were two matching daggers appearing to go through her areola.
You smirk at the idea that these are her favorite tattoos. The cheeky ones around her tits.
“Holy shit, Ellie.”
You reach out and touch her tits, ever so delicately. You use your finger to outline the daggers, smiling to yourself.
Being this close sends a pulsating feeling down to your pussy. You have never felt a lightning strike quite like it before.
She’s letting you feel her up, but when you change your tune and start pinching at her nipples, she throws her head back with a groan.
“Hmm, you should try putting one in your mouth,” She remarks, hoping to God you would be eager enough to do so. She was very in tune with you because you leaned forward taking her right nipple into your mouth. She’s guiding you around every turn, whispering how good you are doing already.
You release her with a pop and sit back. You reach around to release your own, but she stops you.
“Lemme do it,” She says mounting your lap. You place your hand on her hips while she runs her fingertips across your back. She unhooks your black bra, letting your tits spill out.
You feel the tops of your hands stand up as soon as her hands begin to knead your tits. You glance down at her movements, watching your sensitive nipples perk up due to the attention she’s giving them.
“Mmm, you like that, sweetness?”
You just groan, your lips needing to do more than just talk. You pull Ellie’s ajar mouth down to yours, diving your tongue between her teeth. You never had such a hunger for anyone else. No guy ever made you feel this way.
She nudges your shoulders, having you fall onto your back. Her lips move away from yours and start to trail down your neck and chest. When her wet mouth touches your tits, you cannot control the sounds that leave your throat. She bites down on your supple skin, which makes you groan more.
“You gotta quiet down a bit. Don’t need anyone hearing us.”
You try to manage your noises, but as soon as she starts to kiss down to the hem of the sweatpants she loaned you, you know you’ll never be quiet like she needs you to be. She tugs at the waistband, taking your underwear with it.
You are now butt naked on her bed. And god, the air is hitting the wetness between your legs is titillating.
“Listen, sweets,” She whispers, palming your thighs with her tattooed hands, “I’m going to make you cum on my tongue first. Then I am going to fuck this pussy so good, you won’t know any other cock but the fake one in my side table. You hear me?”
Your stomach is in knots, but you know that this is what you really want. “Okay, Ellie. Please do whatever you think I will like.”
“You’re gonna like it all, baby girl. And if it gets a bit dodgy, you just let me know and we can stop.”
You shake your head positively as she smiles between your legs. She starts by kissing up your thighs, keeping you completely in a trance. When her mouth finds your slit, she licks a long stripe. She takes her time, working her tongue in between your pussy lips. The wet sound that happens when she shakes her head is pornographic. When she finds your clit, she encases it and starts to suck lightly. You scream out in pleasure, never feeling this sensitive before. It usually took a whole lot of Matt lazily fingering you and fucking you to illicit such a response. Ellie is building up an orgasm within you in record time.
She uses her fingers to open up your pussy a little bit more. You instinctively want to close your legs, but her left arm has your legs locked on her bed. Her middle and index fingers curl inside you with every motion forward.
Her eyes are closed and you are laser-focused on her expressions. She’s putting her all into making you feel good and it’s relieving to watch someone put so much care into it.
You notice the small little freckles that scatter across her nose get lighter as they reach her cheekbones. She’s so fucking pretty.
“Jesus, you’re doin’ so good sweetheart. You feel so good.”
“Oh my god, Ellie, please don’t stop,” Your voice is strained, begging her to continue fucking you. She chuckles and begins to pick up speed. Your mind is cluttered, unsure how you can feel this good.
When the peripherals of your vision begin to get white, you know it’s over. She latches her lips back onto your clit, humming to drag the orgasm out of you. When it happens, your deep guttural moans get muffled by her palm.
You think your heart is going to stop beating.
Once you begin to feel your muscles relax, Ellie is crawling on top of you, hovering over your chest, her lips kissing your collarbones.
“You did such a great job, baby girl,” She dotes, her short hair falling across her forehead, “You’re so fuckin’ sexy.”
Your heart swells up a thousand sizes. You never got called that before, let alone felt sexy. But Ellie had this aura to her. She made you feel sexy, desirable, wanted.
Your hand reaches up to tuck her hair behind her ear, “Please show me more.”
She nods, before she leans back on her knees. She balances on one leg before shoving her pajama shorts down. The ink travels to every part of her body and you wonder if the ones around her hips hurt. The snakes that travel up her thighs, have their heads resting right on her hip bones.
You sit up and observe her movements, she’s fumbling with something in her drawer. She seemingly cannot find what she’s looking for and slams it shut.
“How about this,” She says with a huff, “I want you to see what it feels like to grind that pretty little pussy on mine anyway. The strap will have to wait.”
You feel the blood drain from your face, “The strap?”
She giggles at your not-so-faux innocence. “We will try that next time.”
You aren’t ready for her to grab onto your legs and move you like a rag doll around her bed. She rests her body horizontally from yours, her lower half lining up with yours. You were not sure how this worked, but you had heard of scissoring before. The technicality was lost on you.
You sit up waiting for instruction, but Ellie is so hypnotized by your wet slit, she doesn’t even look at you. You watch her reach out and touch your dripping center and it sends an electric shock down your limbs. You throw your head back, hissing at the action.
“God, that cunt is so pretty.”
You finally look back at her, wanting nothing more but to fuck her like she fucked you. So in return for her toying with you, you hastily reach out and touch her pussy. You are confused by what to do, but by her reaction, you know you did something right.
“Tell me what we are doing,” You beg, closing your legs in closer to hers. She nods, watching your fingers pull apart her pussy lips.
“Pull your cunt against mine and ride me like you’d ride Matt’s dick.”
You halt your movements, “Ride him?”
“You’ve never ridden him before?”
Your response was your silence. You had never explored much with him, simply because he was quick to get his nut before traversing to other territories.
She helps you sit up, hover your cunt over hers. You can not lie, the sight of her sticky wet pussy was hot. She guides you down so your mound is on hers. She bites her lip as you practically drool watching your purely untouched body against her painted figure.
“Now move your hips back,” Her hands are gripping onto your hips, showing you the way, “And forth.”
The friction is immediately overstimulating, but it feels like an itch you’ve never scratched. So fucking delicious.
“Shit…” You groan at the response your body is giving you.
“Practice makes perfect, baby. Keep moving those hips.
You have never been on top, but it’s almost freeing to be in control of the movements. You weren’t sure what you should grip onto as you rubbed your pussy against hers, so you grip onto your own shoulders. Your hips gyrate, the slickness between your legs starts trailing down to Ellie’s navy blue sheets.
“God, this pussy is so fucking perfect,” Ellie says through gritted teeth. She holds down your hips, somehow trying to get you closer to her.
“It’s yours.” You whine, letting the lust take over your speech. You had no clue what that meant for this situation, you just knew that Ellie knew how to fuck you and it was bliss. You hands leave your shoulders and eventually find Ellie’s tits.
“This pussy is mine? The first cunt you fuck is the cunt you fuck forever?”
You want to laugh, but the bubble in your stomach is about to burst already with how fucked out of your mind you are. “If the cunt is yours, then yes. I want this forever.”
Ellie sucks on her two fingers before she reaches down, finding the very top of your cunt, and starts to press down on that sensitive little bud. The saliva only mixes with the messiness of your liquids. You squeeze her nipples in response.
“Never going back to my stupid fuckin’ brother, hm? This pussy belongs to me.”
“Yes, Ellie, fuck!”
She smiles at your quickening pace. She knows you’re reaching your breaking point, and she knows that she’s close herself.
“Come for me, baby. Come all over my fuckin’ cunt.”
You jolt forward, your hips stilling over hers. You don’t know if you’ve felt a sensation quite like it. You had tears pricking the corners of your eyes as your body felt like a volcano erupting. The curses leaving Ellie’s lips as she came from your orgasm only added to the high you felt. You knew words were leaving your mouth, but they were just jumbled together strings of sentences.
“Jesus Christ…”
“It feels so good…”
“I want this pussy forever…”
You fall over next to Ellie, your legs still intertwined with hers. She was trying to catch her breath, her body still jittery from her high.
“That was per-”
“Babe!!”
Your stomach drops to your ass when you hear Matt’s voice.
You jump up from Ellie’s bed, finding the closest clothes you can grab at. Ellie does the same, but takes her time throwing a tank top over her bed head. His footsteps are practically running up the steps.
You are still wobbly on your legs, practically falling over trying to put on the pants she loaned you. You just keep saying “fuck” over and over again, knowing that you two will probably be caught. You just finished putting on a shirt when he barges into the room.
He’s drunk.
“What are you still doing in here?” He asks you in an accusatory slurred voice. Collin is close behind him, trying to shush him.
“Chill, dude. I was just showin’ her some of my art.” Ellie defends, plopping down on her bed. She’s trying to mask the fact that her bed is wet with your cum.
While he blabs about how Ellie sucks at art, which he is very wrong about, you notice a red blotch on his shirt collar. You zero in on it because you fucking knew.
“Matt, what’s on your neck?” You interrupt.
He stops his rant to look down at you. His eyes are bloodshot. He’s so gone that his mind can’t make up an excuse.
“It’s from Sophie,” He blurts out, his lips getting ahead of his brain. Ellie pauses and the entire room goes dead silent. You had no idea what to say back to that. You had no clue who Sophie was. You honestly did not care, your relationship was already done in your head. You were just kind of shell-shocked that it happened exactly how your mind doctored it.
You glance over at Ellie who is already looking at you. Collin clears his throat.
“I think this a conversation for the morning,” Collin says, grabbing Matt’s arm to tug him out of the room.
You nod, “Yeah, Collin, great idea. Why don’t you take Matt to bed? Tuck him in and give him a sweet kiss like Sophie did.”
Matt’s face turns bright red, the same thing it always did when he got mad at you. Before he could lash out at you, Collin drags him out of the room and into the hall. Before shutting the door behind him, he says, “I’m sorry.”
You furrow your eyebrows, “It’s fine. It’s not the first time. But it will be the last.”
When the door clicks shut, you hear Matt whisper yelling at Collin about how big of a bitch you are. How you didn’t deserve him. Yadda-yadda-yadda.
Ellie just gawks at you. The tone of the room changed so drastically so quickly that you felt almost disconnected from reality.
“You okay?” She asks innocently, her hand holding onto your shoulder.
Your legs are still weak. “Yeah, I think I’ll need more practice though.”
She is confused, you can tell by the look on her face. “Huh?”
“I’ll need more practice riding you. And, hey, you didn’t get to use that fake dick on me, remember?”
-
taglist (for those who said they wanted this haha)
@cavillscurls @satellitespinner @mourningdovee @hockeyhughes @stonerzdaze420692 @00ops1e @sunflowerwinds @holilogram @whoucallingalesbian @aurelialuna
#✮─── . aestra's ultimate favs#gotta start a new tag with this one#goddamn#ellie williams#ellie williams x reader#ellie williams smut
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Peacock miraculous theory
Alright yall, the current state of the peacock miraculous, Mayura in general, Emilies coma and the damage it does/did to Natalie and Emilie has been wracking my brain FOR MONTHS but I think I’ve got something now
So buckel up folks, this is gonna get longer. Here we go
Lets start with the obvious question everybody had (and immediately dismissed as a mistake) in “Mayura”. Why did the miraculous look different and what does it mean
There is alot to unpack here, so first things first.
Simplified answer: in the first picture Duusu is IN the miraculous and in the lower she’s OUT of it.
“But how can Duusu be IN the miraculous, nobody is wearing it!” I hear you asking and of course I’ll explain. What I believe is that the way we saw the peacock in “Mayura” came to be because Duusu was renounced, meaning she was put into the miraculous without anyone wearing it to conceal her or something like that. This already happened before, first time when Marinette and Adrien opened their miraculous boxes
Plagg and Tikki are already in their Miraculous and power them up and only come out to face their new holders. Also nice little touch, the ring starts glowing first because Plaggs a hungry little shit with no patience to get cheese lol
But the second time this happened is the one I wanna focus on. In “the Collector” when Gabriel detransformed to akumatize himself.
These are the two forms of the butterfly (or any miraculous for that matter) that we know of but when Hawkmoth detransformed back into Gabriel to become the Collector, Gabriel did something interestin. He renounced Nooroo. Then this happened
The miraculous turned back into its “active form” even though Gabriel wasnt wearing it and stayed that way when he put it away.
Meaning yes, the peacock miraculous we saw in “Mayura”makes perfect sense when Duusu was simply renounced.
Next.
I dont have a smooth transition for thisbut stay with me, I need to explain this first. Why does Mayura/Natalie look so different from the other holders and the way Duusu and the miraculous damage her (and Emilie)
As everyone hopefully noticed by now, Mayuras design looks very different from the other miraculous holder. Everybody (including ancient holders) looks like they are “wearing” their powers (suiting up) but Mayura looks like she’s possessing the power, the way the akuma victims do. No I#m not about to tell you that mayura is akumatized, what I’m saying is that Natalie absorbes Duusu as Mayura.
Okay please hear me out
A while ago someone from the ml crew leaked official concept arts and included was Mayuras
as you can see, even though Mayura is tranformed here she’s oddly still wearing the “inactive form”. The miraculous doesn’t fit to the color scheme the way every other does and it has 9 feathers instead of the normal number 5 that is also present in every other miraculous (because of the timer). So yeah, its the normal form.
So what I believe is that since the peacock miraculous is broken, it cant absord Duusu anymore while transforming the holder. Its “leaking” as to say. It can hold Duusu when shes being renounced (as seen in “Mayura”) but once a holder is involved? The power/Duusu go straight through the miraculous right into the person.
Which is why the person using the miraculous becomes so incredibly sick andeven falls into a coma. A human being is not meant to absorb the power of a Kwami. As Astruc said himself Kwamis are GODS, humans needed the jewlery to be able to “use” the Kwamis because they are just THAT powerful (flashback to Plaggs little Cataclysm in “Style Queen” that fucking BROKE 90% of Paris or him being the reason the dinosaurs went extinct)
So we have an explaination for what happened and is currently happening to Emilie and Natalie but thats not everything I have for this point! I also believe that Duusu herself somehow got sick. For this I dont have alot to work with (because of the little screentime Mayura and her miraculous had up until now and 0 scene AT ALL for Duusu herself) but what we have leaves me a bit perplex, starting with Duusus design.
Duusu is the ONLY Kwami whose colors do not fit to the real life animal. Look t this and see what i mean
THIS is not how a peacock looks like, where th is the pink coming from? If Duusu were accurate like every other Kwami (purple butterflies exist, so even Nooroo is accurate even though purple isnt the first color that comes into your mind when you think of butterflies. Its close in my case tho) she would be green instead of pink! But you know what? The green is actually there, let m show you something
In negative Duusus peacock green is there, which lets me believe that Duusu turned pink because shes sick (keep in mind that the show often works with negative/opposite colors, Queen Bee and Antibug for example). Beside that I also find curious how much they focus on Duusus emotional outbursts here in her introduction picture. No other kwami has THIS emotional range, not even Plagg comes anywhere close to this and hes the most “out there” Kwami we know!
Alright, whats next?
Ah!
Why was Duusu only renounced in “Mayura”? What are her powers and how can Mayura use them?
Last one promise!
From what we have seen in “Mayura” the peacock is simular to the butterfly in terms of the “akumatizing and communication” stick but both of their powers are not the same! The big difference is that the butterfly adds power to a persons emotional energy which posseses them and the peacock takes the emotional energy an dcreates a ptotector out of it. Both use the energy of a person but only Mayuras power is actually really channeling them. When Mayura rescued Hawkmoth in “Heros day”, he collapsed when Mayura channeled his energy but Im pretty sure thats because the peacock is damaged. If it were normal I believe it would give the person the power to control the protector. Probably also alot more but thats everything Im getting out of the one scene we had with her but I think her powers will be very energy based in general. In the concept art is a picture of Mayura attacking with somesort of energy blast and thats there for a reason for sure!
Where I’m getting here with the whole energie thing is that I believe Duusu on her own can channel a persons energy to protect/preserve and maybe even heal a person. Peacocks are (beside other things) known for Spirituality, Awakening, Immortality, refinement and incorruptibility. So Duuse being able to channel a persons energy is possible, its like Plaggs ability to destroy everything on his own.
Okay I think we all know where Im getting here, so Ill just say it.I believe Duusu was only renounced in “Mayura” even though shes sick/damaged because normally shes trying to/being used to keep Emilies comatose body alive. Of course she isnt doing this 24/7, she cant because shes damaged which also expalines why Emilie is not getting better but worse. Duusu and her powers are aick and damaged, they are probably only able to keep her alive for a little longer before they cant stop time anymore.
This is also supported by the last scene in “Gorizilla”. Remeber this?
We dont see Emilie or anything in close up here, but what we can do, is hearing! Remeber the ticking noises that sounded just like the miraculous timer? Again in the concept we also see this
It seems like the miraculous in their normal form can use some kind of powers too and once again, just like the “activated” timer, something is dissapearing from the miraculous. So maybe gabriel is making Duusu useing her powers to help Emilie and the ticking noise we heard was the efect it has on the miraculous like seen above. It stands in question why Duusu would need the miraculous for useing her powers but its likely because its damaged and Astruc once comfirmed that Kwamis need the miraculous jewleries to interact with humans. So since both she and the miraculous are damaged, she needs to use her powers through the miraculous to be able to help. But thats just one possible way, I need more context for this detail.
Alright u guys, THATS IT
#miraculous#butterfly miraculous#miraculous ladybug#peacock miraculous#gabriel agreste#emilie agreste#adrien agreste#Mama Agreste#agreste house#hawkmoth#le papillon#mayura#chat noir#cat noir#ladybug#Duusu#Nooroo#Plagg#ml spoilers#ml theory#ml heros day#Marinette Dupain-Cheng#kwamis#ml powers
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Director's Cut: Paradise Lost?
Thanks! I know I mentioned it before, but I’m really excited to talk about this one!
Paradise Lost
My newest child, whom I love even though I have no idea how I’m going to feel about it in a couple of months.
The full backstory to it is that me and @janetcarter were talking Terra Nova, as we are wont to do, since we have our own batshit insane version of that show that only really makes sense to us. (It involves bondage dinosaurs, authoritarian regimes, oppressed Americans, spray bottles, 1789, and about 867% more gay than the original show could have possibly conceived of.) And they’ve been rewatching it, so they’ve been kind of liveblogging it to me, and we were discussing Taylor being an authoritarian bag of dicks again. (This is an ongoing conversation; it’s great.)
And they made the mistake of saying this:
And it eventually led to me doing a half-mad rant that would form the skeleton of Paradise Lost. In the annotations, see the original text in italics VS the final text.
“YEP.
“DIRTY WORK.”
“THERE’S NO OTHER WAY I CAN INTERPRET THAT ONE” “MAYBE SHE DOESN’T KNOW THE FULL DETAILS ABOUT PHILBRICK BUT YOU CAN BET YOUR ASS SHE KNOWS *SOMETHING*”
And, from there on, it was all Paradise Lost. I ended up copying and pasting those messages in a GDocs file, edited it, added some description and a few plot points, and within a day I had a one-shot.
So, I accidentally wrote a one-shot out in a Tumblr pm and I was just like, “You know what? Fuck it. I need to write a one-shot out of this. My productivity’s been low recently, anyway. Merry Christmas, Avery, hohoho. Have some angst.”
It was actually really exciting, in a sense, because this is a totally different setting than I’ve been working with for the last year and it was a chance to expand my horizons, even though, as has been HELPFULLY pointed out to me, it’s still set in the past. Just…millions of years ago as opposed to just hundreds. I played myself there.
(Annotations under cut)
Taylor’s kid talks when he’s drunk.
Pretty much the first new sentence that I knew I was going to include. I really like the idea of Mira addressing Lucas mainly as “Taylor’s kid,” like, despite him being a pretentious little prick who thinks he’s a genius, she still views him as a whiny kid.
It’s something they put up with for the sake of the mission, he comes in, gives them their marching orders, and takes a bottle or two of moonshine, the pink-purple liquid spilling across his lips along with the stories.
The fruit they come from is called “Frut” and it’s an ongoing joke between me, Avery, and @elluka, so it only made sense for me to include it here as an in-joke. Lucas loves that sweet frut juice.
Also: It is 100% canon that they make alcohol from it. I ended up having to look up what dragonfruit juice looks like to make sure this would be as authentic as possible.
Not that she cares enough to make sense of the stuff, to Mira they’re all the same as those calculations he draws out on the rocks in bold white chalk, rambling on and on.
Most of the others, they’re smart enough to avoid him, they’ve been out here long enough to know a Slasher in the woods when they see one. So, that means Mira’s the one to keep him company, giving him another when his stock runs out, praying that there’s enough left over to keep up morale, because that’s always a problem in a hellpit like this.
People get lonely, start thinking about the past, wanting things that they can’t have. The alcohol, even if it’s weak compared to the real stuff, helps them drown it out for a little while, though she doesn’t take it.
Sadly enough, we get so little Sixer development that we don’t really know what morale’s like in-camp, the show’s too busy telling us that these are Bad People because they oppose God Emperor Taylor, but I would suspect that, given that unlike the colony, they only ever intended to be here temporarily, it would have to be pretty miserable. How long were they told it would be? A couple of months, a year? After all the years it would be, I can only imagine the homesickness from some or the resignation from others.
Tl;dr: Yeah, I suspect they would be bargaining with Boylan for some of that frut juice or they have a still in-camp, though it probably has to take a backburner to more important things like medicine and food.
Instead, she keeps Sienna’s face in her head at all times, wrapping herself around it, thinking of her bright smile as she’d walk through the door, dropping the raggedy toy that Mira’d got her after a mission as she ran to greet her. (She tries to think of whether it was a T-Rex with the faded red fabric and the drooping limbs with the stuffing worn out of them or a spinosaurus, and when she can’t, she feels the need to get out of this place and back into the real world like a jolt in her brain.)
The reference to Sienna’s toy came in fairly late, but I actually really liked it, because (1) It adds that worldbuilding as far as Mira’s economic situation and (2) It reminds me of a bit from the original script where Terra Nova was HUGE, so of course dinosaurs would be a big thing now, and there’s a certain irony to Mira being sent to destroy something that her daughter loves so much in order to give them a better life. Also, I’d just seen a review for various spinosaurus plushies, so I might have been inspired.
It’s also really important that she refers to 2149 as “the real world,” as her way of distancing herself from whatever she does in Terra Nova, as well as distancing herself from Wash and her feelings for her. “This isn’t real, this is a job, it’s not the real world, it’s an alternative timeline.”
This time, there wouldn’t be another time. She’d get the job done, get home, and give Sienna the life that she deserved. And she doesn’t give a damn about what she has to do to get it. That’s what she tells herself, and it’s what she’ll believe.
One of the things that I really admire about Mira is how FOCUSED she is. That’s something that can be both a major pro, since it means that she’s very driven to get her goals, but it also means that she can be harsh when she feels like other people are falling behind and not focusing, even, say, to a young child like Leah Marcos.
Until then, she’d keep giving Lucas Taylor the moonshine, quietly hoping he’d choke on it, until he wound up drooling on the floor before going off to brood in a cave for the next six months.
In case no one can tell the level of respect I have for Lucas Taylor, Boy Genius.
Alright, but judging from Mira’s interactions with him, she is clearly deeply unnerved, and even though his calculations are necessary for getting her back home…well, if he chokes, it’s not really HER fault. It’s this terrible situation where she’s stuck with him even as she’s clearly scared by him and would probably want him dead under any other circumstances.
“You know what? Those people-I-I feel sorry for them! They’ll never know the truth about the Great Nathaniel Taylor,” he raises his arm suddenly, as if he was trying to give a clumsy toast, spilling moonshine everywhere.
“Seriously, WHY THE HELL wouldn’t Lucas at least tell the Sixers? He knows that to the colony, it’s The Great Nathaniel Taylor, but the Sixers don’t have any stake there”
Uh huh. Daddy Issues story #326 - Been there, done that, she thinks as she wipes some of the sticky liquid off of her cheek.
This was honestly one of my favorite lines to write. One of the things that I mentioned to Avery while I was live-blogging writing this is how much I honestly LOVE Mira’s POV, given how incredibly snarky she is. It’s like she’s aware of what show she’s a part of and she’s dedicated herself to ripping it apart.
I’m so used to working with viewpoint characters who were born centuries ago it was honestly a bit refreshing, as much as I love Lazare “Javert was busy so they booked me instead” de Peyrol and Solène “Women’s motherfucking March on Versailles” Mazurier. Mira is just so fundamentally DIFFERENT, being very blunt and no-nonsense as well as the aforementioned snarkiness, that she was really a treat to work with.
The way the kid talks, you’d almost think that this kind of thing was unusual . They were all soldier’s kids, these days. They’d all had to do what they had to to survive, and not all of them had mommy and daddy propping them up through the early years, either. Going from home to home, place to place, hoping that a bomb wouldn’t explode over their heads, holding a gun in their hand from the first time they could salvage one.
“Lucas was there, and in between crying about his daddy issues…why wouldn’t he expose Taylor to the world?”
It’s always been a pity to me that we really didn’t get all that much backstory development for 2149, except for that it’s a Very Bad Place, pollution, wars, etc., so it was a bit of fun trying to imagine what Mira’s past might have looked like given she’s obviously not as privileged as the Shannons or the Taylors, the former of whom are definitely INSANELY privileged. I have to think of when Taylor’s doing his whole “I survived 118 days in the wilderness” thing and Mira snaps back, “Yeah, we’re going on 1000.” There’s this…edge to her, and it takes a lot to impress her, and I have to think it’s because she’s survived so much that there’s really little that can surprise her.
She makes a non-committal sound in response.
“You don’t believe me, do you? Nobody else does, but you see -” Lucas laughs as he leans forward, and Mira wonders if he’s really lost it this time and what to tell Phoenix Group if their golden boy’s finally cracked under the pressure. “I was there. When my father killed him. And now-Now he wants. To kill me. I know everything, about how General Philbrick tried to get my father to step down, and my father killed him as if he was some carno that’d gotten lose. He buried him under Pilgrim’s Tree, he buried him there and let it rot, but-” Lucas smiles, sharp and predatory, and it hits Mira in the gut that he believes this “He couldn’t kill me. I know the truth.”
She eyes him as he is, trying to run it through her brain. Taylor’s a son of a bitch, but not a murderer. As if he doesn’t notice, he goes on, slamming down his bottle with a dramatic flourish as he spreads his arms out wide, “The great Taylor family tragedy-The mad king, the exiled prince, and, as always, no one listens to the oracle. But it’s all here,” he taps his head, “It’s all right in here. Don’t believe me?” He says, with the smug self-confidence that makes Mira want to punch his teeth out, even smugger with the alcohol. “See for yourself. Remember the name: Richard Philbrick.”
“'Don’t believe me? See for yourself.’ Lucas would say, with that smug self confidence that makes Mira want to punch his teeth out, settling instead for ignoring it.
I really, really hate writing Lucas, because it feels like no one would ever say this, but then I remember that he described his relationship with his father as “A Shakespearian drama that borders on Greek tragedy.” Like a pretentious douche who strings together important-sounding words. But, I do kind of like the idea of him treating himself and his father as just…players in a larger game.
Mira finds herself thinking of it long after he’s back to drooling on the floor, with a hell of a hangover coming in the morning. The kid’s been loose in the wild for too long, everyone knows it. It’s like playing with a tiger to get anything out of him, and most of the time, he speaks in equations, not words, as he holds his brilliance over everyone else’s head. God knows what goes on in his mind.
“And at first Mira wouldn’t believe it, because Lucas is demonstrably unstable + would make up ANYTHING to discredit his father, but as time goes on it makes more sense. And, after all, Philbrick has dropped off the grid”
The line about equations, not words is exactly how I feel whenever he appears on screen and the rest of the characters have to pretend that the words he’s piecing together actually make sense.
And he hates his father. Not that you need to be a genius to know that one. He’d say anything about him, so long as it’d rain on Taylor’s little “big bright beautiful tomorrow” parade. Taylor’s an optimist, always going on about that bright new future for everyone. Peace, love, the American way, all that bullshit. Murdering someone-It’s not his MO. There’s nothing in the three inches-tall dossier they handed off to her the week before she went through Hope Plaza that’d say that.
I had to get “There’s a Big, Bright, Beautiful Tomorrow” stuck in my head for this.
She turns in her hammock, watching the tops of the trees sway gently in the wind through the little netted opening that’s as close as she’s got to a window, as a pteranodon flies across the moon. There are times she could almost get to like this place. She thinks of Sienna and frowns. Almost.
You will never know how pissed I am that we never got to see “Mira’s Lair” as Taylor calls it. I think that they would have to have some form of netting to keep out the mosquitoes and any other creepy crawlies, but yet again, the worldbuilding was shit there and I’m sad.
(She remembers the first time she’d seen the moon, without the pollution there to cover it up or a million lights to dim it, white and gleaming and so big, Wash’s arm, strong and warm, around her as they’d made their way to the colony.)
The kid’s lying, she tells herself, there’s no point in taking the bait.
In the morning, he’s back to scrawling more equations on rocks, and she’s back to taking care of her colony. That should be it.
It isn’t.
It sits there in the back of her mind, buzzing like a little mosquito that she can’t quite swat. She hates that about the kid, how he can get under her skin, make her think.
Taylor as a murderer? It doesn’t fit with that squeaky-clean, messiah complex image he’s tried to work up. Not that he’d be the first. Everyone has their demons, and God knows what’s underneath that benevolent dictator image. But if he was, then…
If he was, then Wash is involved, too. But of course she can’t say that, because that would be admitting it to herself.
I have to think that given the amount of corruption in 2149, Taylor being a bitch wouldn’t be a surprise, and that’s something I tried to show, but that it doesn’t fit HIM (and, more importantly, Mira’s still trying to protect Wash in her mind.)
She ignores it, and ignores it, but it’s still there, in the back of her mind, and finally, she gives in.
“She ignores it, and ignores it, but it’s still there, in the back of her mind”
Is Taylor really capable of that?
“Is Taylor capable of that?”
So she checks. Still being in contact with 2149 has its perks, and she doesn’t have to run that kind of thing by Taylor (convenient, the voice whispers in her ear, that he controls the access to the outside world. She’d always thought it was so no one decided to get stuck on something dangerous like “democracy” or “basic human rights,” but it’d be useful as Hell if he was keeping something a secret.)
“And keep in mind: The Sixers can CONTACT THE OUTSIDE WORLD AND GET THAT INFO”
Philbrick’s missing they say, but there are holes in the record. Missing in South America? It’s the new “went on a long vacation and never came back.” And even if she’s not out there writing equations on rocks, she’s not stupid. Stupid gets you killed, where Mira’s from. Her employers play the evasion game, remind her what she has to lose if she presses, and she folds. Officially. But she knows one thing: Richard Philbrick’s dead, and wherever he is, it’s not South America.
So she checks. Philbrick’s missing they say, but there are all those little holes.”
Honestly, I hate writing any kind of detective work, because it all feels like a reach, so this was a hard section to write. But also absolutely necessary.
Boylan seems to know everything that goes on in the colony, for the right price, and she corners him one day after they’ve just gotten ahold of some medical supplies.
Thank God for Boylan providing the plot-convenient information. Or not providing it, as the case may be. He actually wasn’t planned, but when I was writing it, it felt like I needed more between the web search and Mira making her realization, so Boylan got to make an appearance. Yay, Boylan.
He just shakes his head, “Isn’t enough money in the world to make me tell you that.”
You know it’s bad when Boylan’s not willing to haggle for information. You know, it’s sad when you think of it: Boylan guarded Taylor’s secret faithfully for years, and only gave it away by accident…because he was tortured by the man he’d once considered a friend. Taylor deserved all the fallback from that one.
“You and he used to be old war buddies, now you can’t stand each other. So what happened?” She tilts her head as she stares him down, the way she knows makes her people stand down when they’re being stubborn.
He just shakes his head head again, walking away, and that’s all the confirmation she needs that something’s up.
Philbrick’s disappearance.
Taylor turning on his own kid.
Taylor turning on Boylan.
It all starts to make sense.
But there’s one thing left, one thing she needs: Proof.
The next time Lucas shows up, she glares at him, “The body. Where is it?”
He smirks in response and takes her to Pilgrim’s Tree.
I really debated including this section, because it seems to go against canon, but I couldn’t imagine anything LESS than that convincing Mira, when she knows that the body’s there.
That’s the thing with secrets: They never stay buried, especially if you leave someone alive to tell the tale.
“The thing with secrets is that they NEVER stay secret long” - Literally the first line of the rant that kicked this off.
And the body of a man, missing a limb in just the right place, well, that tells a story all on its own. There’s no point doing anything with it, when all they have’s the word of Taylor’s unstable son and a corpse against a legend. Better to put him back in the ground and wait for when it can be useful. As they cover the body again, spreading dead leaves across the upturned soil so it looks undisturbed, Mira feels her gut twist.
This was my haphazard attempt at keeping things consistent with canon, as much as it could be.
It’s never been personal between her and Taylor. It’s just a job, just like it always was (she tells herself as she thinks of trusting dark eyes sparked by the firelight as Wash sat opposite her, stretching a black hairband absently between her fingers, her black hair loose around her shoulders. That night, she’d forgotten her mission for a moment. Just a moment, but it was enough.)
“And slowly, but surely, things make sense. And honestly, Mira’s horrified, because it was never PERSONAL between her and Taylor. It was a job (she tells herself as she thinks of trusting dark eyes by the firelight).”
It doesn’t really make sense for MIra to have that undercurrent of bitterness that she has towards Taylor in canon; my girl’s a mercenary at nature, I can’t see her taking it personally. But this? Was honestly the first time Mira’s character clicked for me.
Also Wash + her hairband is one of my favorite things, in no part because of the 1789 crossover meaning that she and Laz get to bond over their ponytails. As is Wash sans hairband, because I’m gay. And imagining Wash’s younger, idealistic self honestly hurts, because Mira’s betrayal took so much of that from her.
She knows why she didn’t want to believe it: For Taylor to be capable of it, that means that everything Wash told her, all that bullshit about a better future, is a lie. Wash is always there by Taylor’s side, saying “How high?” even before he says “Jump.” (He doesn’t deserve it, she thinks; if she was with them, she’d be raking in a solid 2 or 3 figures more as a medic alone.) There’s no way she doesn’t know.
“And maybe she doesn’t want to believe it because for Taylor to be capable of it, that means that EVERYTHING Wash told her, about a better future, is a lie. Wash is as complicit as Taylor, she’s always there by his side, there’s no way she doesn’t know.
Also, props to Mira for STILL thinking about how much Taylor doesn’t deserve Wash even as she’s realizing that Wash is complicit in human rights violations.
She’s never been one for the new, better future that Taylor goes on about, about second chances and fresh starts, she has to spend her time on solid ground with what they have now rather than chasing after rainbows and unicorns. But when Wash talked about it, hope in her eyes, Mira’d almost…
And as it all comes together Mira feels a little bit of her heart (which is already mostly hardened, after years of war, years of eat or be eaten only a few inches of red pulsing muscle remain, and it’s for her daughter and Wash) calcify.
And as it all comes together Mira feels a little bit of her heart (which is already mostly calcified, years of war, years of eat or be eaten hardening it, only a few inches of red pulsing muscle remain, and it’s for her daughter and Wash) calcify.
This is one of the bits that remained virtually unchanged from concept to final product, mainly because I really, really liked it, and it’s probably the reason I ultimately ended up writing it down in the first place.
“Still doing Taylor’s dirty work?” She’ll ask, several years later, as Wash looks up at her in-Hatred? Anger? Surprise? Mira blames the smudged black eyeliner for hiding her eyes.
‘Still doing Taylor’s dirty work?’ I know the truth now, is what she’s really saying, I’m not naive anymore.”
Not that it matters. Not anymore.
She’s trying to say that it doesn’t matter what Wash thinks and that she’s over it, but she isn’t. She was still hoping, on some level, for Wash to say something. But then she doesn’t, and so Mira uses her as leverage for what she wants, telling herself that it doesn’t matter because it’s all for the mission, anyway.
I know the truth now, is what she’s really saying, I’m not naive anymore.
I know.
And somehow, it doesn’t feel as good as she thought it would.
This line was the only thing I could think of to end it on, even as I didn’t like it overly much, but I wanted it to be a very bittersweet at best ending from Mira’s perspective. She’s broken free of the lies Taylor told, at least she thinks so, she’s brought Wash down a peg or two, but it can’t be a victory because she really didn’t get what she really wanted, which was for Wash to renounce Taylor and jump in her arms.
My other alternate title was “Prometheus” [which I discarded because (1) It was Lucas levels of pretentious and (2) it centered Lucas rather than Mira], and I feel like both of the titles kind of encapsulates the idea there: You get the knowledge you want, but at what cost?
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The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There’s a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There’s obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this – namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.“ – Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
…was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it’s really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google’s incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google’s share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook’s is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don’t have time to hunt down but want to read!
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The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
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The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
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The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
from Blogger http://ift.tt/2FfSxqE via IFTTT
0 notes
Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
from Blogger http://ift.tt/2oaoI3N via SW Unlimited
0 notes
Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There’s a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There’s obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this – namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” – Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
…was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it’s really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google’s incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google’s share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook’s is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don’t have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There’s a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There’s obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.“ - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
…was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it’s really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google’s incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google’s share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook’s is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don’t have time to hunt down but want to read!
0 notes
Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
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Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
from The Moz Blog http://ift.tt/2ogKv9e via IFTTT
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Text
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!
xem them tai http://ift.tt/2o9GYfe The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything http://ift.tt/2ohk5UJ xem thêm tại: http://ift.tt/2mb4VST để biết thêm về địa chỉ bán tai nghe không dây giá rẻ The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure 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The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything
Posted by willcritchlow
Digital marketing is measurable.
It’s probably the single most common claim everyone hears about digital, and I can’t count the number of times I’ve seen conference speakers talk about it (heck, I’ve even done it myself).
I mean, look at those offline dinosaurs, the argument goes. They all know that half their spend is wasted — they just don’t know which half.
Maybe the joke’s on us digital marketers though, who garnered only 41% of global ad spend even in 2017 after years of strong growth.
Unfortunately, while we were geeking out about attribution models and cross-device tracking, we were accidentally triggering a common human cognitive bias that kept us anchored on small amounts, leaving buckets of money on the table and fundamentally reducing our impact and access to the C-suite.
And what’s worse is that we have convinced ourselves that it’s a critical part of what makes digital marketing great. The simplest way to see this is to realize that, for most of us, I very much doubt that if you removed all our measurement ability we’d reduce our digital marketing investment to nothing.
In truth, of course, we’re nowhere close to measuring all the benefits of most of the things we do. We certainly track the last clicks, and we’re not bad at tracking any clicks on the path to conversion on the same device, but we generally suck at capturing:
Anything that happens on a different device
Brand awareness impacts that lead to much later improvements in conversion rate, average order value, or lifetime value
Benefits of visibility or impressions that aren’t clicked
Brand affinity generally
The cognitive bias that leads us astray
All of this means that the returns we report on tend to be just the most direct returns. This should be fine — it’s just a floor on the true value (“this activity has generated at least this much value for the brand”) — but the “anchoring” cognitive bias means that it messes with our minds and our clients’ minds. Anchoring is the process whereby we fixate on the first number we hear and subsequently estimate unknowns closer to the anchoring number than we should. Famous experiments have shown that even showing people a totally random number can drag their subsequent estimates up or down.
So even if the true value of our activity was 10x the measured value, we’d be stuck on estimating the true value as very close to the single concrete, exact number we heard along the way.
This tends to result in the measured value being seen as a ceiling on the true value. Other biases like the availability heuristic (which results in us overstating the likelihood of things that are easy to remember) tend to mean that we tend to want to factor in obvious ways that the direct value measurement could be overstating things, and leave to one side all the unmeasured extra value.
The mistake became a really big one because fortunately/unfortunately, the measured return in digital has often been enough to justify at least a reasonable level of the activity. If it hadn’t been (think the vanishingly small number of people who see a billboard and immediately buy a car within the next week when they weren’t otherwise going to do so) we’d have been forced to talk more about the other benefits. But we weren’t. So we lazily talked about the measured value, and about the measurability as a benefit and a differentiator.
The threats of relying on exact measurement
Not only do we leave a whole load of credit (read: cash) on the table, but it also leads to threats to measurability being seen as existential threats to digital marketing activity as a whole. We know that there are growing threats to measuring accurately, including regulatory, technological, and user-behavior shifts:
GDPR and other privacy regulations are limiting what we are allowed to do (and, as platforms catch up, what we can do)
Privacy features are being included in more products, added on by savvy consumers, or simply being set to be on by default more often, with even the biggest company in the world touting privacy as a core differentiator
Users continue to increase the extent to which they research and buy across multiple devices
Compared to early in Google’s rise, the lack of keyword-level analytics data and the rise of (not provided) means that we have far less visibility into the details than we used to when the narrative of measurability was being written
Now, imagine that the combination of these trends meant that you lost 100% of your analytics and data. Would it mean that your leads stopped? Would you immediately turn your website off? Stop marketing?
I suggest that the answer to all of that is “no.” There's a ton of value to digital marketing beyond the ability to track specific interactions.
We’re obviously not going to see our measurable insights disappear to zero, but for all the reasons I outlined above, it’s worth thinking about all the ways that our activities add value, how that value manifests, and some ways of proving it exists even if you can’t measure it.
How should we talk about value?
There are two pieces to the brand value puzzle:
Figuring out the value of increasing brand awareness or affinity
Understanding how our digital activities are changing said awareness or affinity
There's obviously a lot of research into brand valuations generally, and while it’s outside the scope of this piece to think about total brand value, it’s worth noting that some methodologies place as much as 75% of the enterprise value of even some large companies in the value of their brands:
Image source
My colleague Tom Capper has written about a variety of ways to measure changes in brand awareness, which attacks a good chunk of the second challenge. But challenge #1 remains: how do we figure out what it’s worth to carry out some marketing activity that changes brand awareness or affinity?
In a recent post, I discussed different ways of building marketing models and one of the methodologies I described might be useful for this - namely so-called “top-down” modelling which I defined as being about percentages and trends (as opposed to raw numbers and units of production).
The top-down approach
I’ve come up with two possible ways of modelling brand value in a transactional sense:
1. The Sherlock approach
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
The outline would be to take the total new revenue acquired in a period. Subtract from this any elements that can be attributed to specific acquisition channels; whatever remains must be brand. If this is in any way stable or predictable over multiple periods, you can use it as a baseline value from which to apply the methodologies outlined above for measuring changes in brand awareness and affinity.
2. Aggressive attribution
If you run normal first-touch attribution reports, the limitations of measurement (clearing cookies, multiple devices etc) mean that you will show first-touch revenue that seems somewhat implausible (e.g. email; email surely can’t be a first-touch source — how did they get on your email list in the first place?):
Click for a larger version
In this screenshot we see that although first-touch dramatically reduces the influence of direct, for instance, it still accounts for more than 15% of new revenue.
The aggressive attribution model takes total revenue and splits it between the acquisition channels (unbranded search, paid social, referral). A first pass on this would simply split it in the relative proportion to the size of each of those channels, effectively normalizing them, though you could build more sophisticated models.
Note that there is no way of perfectly identifying branded/unbranded organic search since (not provided) and so you’ll have to use a proxy like homepage search vs. non-homepage search.
But fundamentally, the argument here would be that any revenue coming from a “first touch” of:
Branded search
Direct
Organic social
Email
...was actually acquired previously via one of the acquisition channels and so we attempt to attribute it to those channels.
Even this under-represents brand value
Both of those methodologies are pretty aggressive — but they might still under-represent brand value. Here are two additional mechanics where brand drives organic search volume in ways I haven’t figured out how to measure yet:
Trusting Amazon to rank
I like reading on the Kindle. If I hear of a book I’d like to read, I’ll often Google the name of the book on its own and trust that Amazon will rank first or second so I can get to the Kindle page to buy it. This is effectively a branded search for Amazon (and if it doesn’t rank, I’ll likely follow up with a [book name amazon] search or head on over to Amazon to search there directly).
But because all I’ve appeared to do is search [book name] on Google and then click through to Amazon, there is nothing to differentiate this from an unbranded search.
Spotting brands you trust in the SERPs
I imagine we all have anecdotal experience of doing this: you do a search and you spot a website you know and trust (or where you have an account) ranking somewhere other than #1 and click on it regardless of position.
One time that I can specifically recall noticing this tendency growing in myself was when I started doing tons more baby-related searches after my first child was born. Up until that point, I had effectively zero brand affinity with anyone in the space, but I quickly grew to rate the content put out by babycentre (babycenter in the US) and I found myself often clicking on their result in position 3 or 4 even when I hadn’t set out to look for them, e.g. in results like this one:
It was fascinating to me to observe this behavior in myself because I had no real interaction with babycentre outside of search, and yet, by consistently ranking well across tons of long-tail queries and providing consistently good content and user experience I came to know and trust them and click on them even when they were outranked. I find this to be a great example because it is entirely self-contained within organic search. They built a brand effect through organic search and reaped the reward in increased organic search.
I have essentially no ideas on how to measure either of these effects. If you have any bright ideas, do let me know in the comments.
Budgets will come under pressure
My belief is that total digital budgets will continue to grow (especially as TV continues to fragment), but I also believe that individual budgets are going to come under scrutiny and pressure making this kind of thinking increasingly important.
We know that there is going to be pressure on referral traffic from Facebook following the recent news feed announcements, but there is also pressure on trust in Google:
Before the recent news feed changes, slightly misleading stories had implied that Google had lost the top spot as the largest referrer of traffic (whereas in fact this was only briefly true in media)
The growth of the mobile-first card view and richer and richer SERPs has led to declines in outbound CTR in some areas
The increasingly black-box nature of Google’s algorithm and an increasing use of ML make the algorithm increasingly impenetrable and mean that we are having to do more testing on individual sites to understand what works
While I believe that the opportunity is large and still growing (see, for example, this slide showing Google growing as a referrer of traffic even as CTR has declined in some areas), it’s clear that the narrative is going to lead to more challenging conversations and budgets under increased scrutiny.
Can you justify your SEO investment?
What do you say when your CMO asks what you’re getting for your SEO investment?
What do you say when she asks whether the organic search opportunity is tapped out?
I’ll probably explore the answers to both these questions more in another post, but suffice it to say that I do a lot of thinking about these kinds of questions.
The first is why we have built our split-testing platform to make organic SEO investments measurable, quantifiable and accountable.
The second is why I think it’s super important to remember the big picture while the media is running around with hair on fire. Media companies saw Facebook overtake Google as a traffic channel (and then are likely seeing that reverse right now), but most of the web has Google as the largest and growing source of traffic and value.
The reality (from clickstream data) is that it's really easy to forget how long the long-tail is and how sparse search features and ads are on the extreme long-tail:
Only 3–4% of all searches result in a click on an ad, for example. Google's incredible (and still growing) business is based on a small subset of commercial searches
Google's share of all outbound referral traffic across the web is growing (and Facebook's is shrinking as they increasingly wall off their garden)
The opportunity is for smart brands to capitalize on a growing opportunity while their competitors sink time and money into a social space that is increasingly all about Facebook, and increasingly pay-to-play.
What do you think? Are you having these hard conversations with leadership? How are you measuring your digital brand’s value?
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The Biggest Mistake Digital Marketers Ever Made: Claiming to Measure Everything published first on http://elitelimobog.blogspot.com
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