#Monthly Monetary Policy 2020

[blockinsider]

Could Bitcoin’s Value Mirror the Upcoming Gold Surge?

Key Points

Bitcoin’s rival Gold continues to hit record highs, with a 25% increase year-to-date.

Bitcoin’s price could potentially benefit from the macroeconomic conditions that are driving the gold rally.

Gold, also known as the yellow metal and a store-of-value rival to Bitcoin, has been reaching new record highs. It surged to $2,564 per ounce on Friday, marking a 25% increase since the start of the year.

In the third quarter, gold’s price rose by 10%, while Bitcoin’s price fell by 7% and is now around $58,000. Compared to the S&P 500, which only increased by 2% this quarter, gold has shown strong performance.

Bitcoin and Gold Divergence

Bitcoin is currently displaying volatility due to macro developments, such as fears of Yen carry trading unwinding and the potential for a US recession. Some analysts suggest that these unique factors are causing a divergence between Bitcoin and Gold. The recent gold price rally could indicate favorable macroeconomic conditions for Bitcoin in the near future.

Charlie Morris, the chief investment officer and founder of ByteTree, believes that the rise in gold is driven by increased central bank accumulation, a benefit Bitcoin has not yet seen. This trend could indicate potential monetary policy easing in the future.

Morris stated, “The appeal of government bond in reserves is lesser and gold has stepped up. Many central banks are accumulating gold, which used to be priced off U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities but is now being influenced by global factors like structural government deficits. The strength in gold reflects increasing current and future [fiat] money supply, among other things, and bitcoin will rally when the economy picks up or when the sound of stimulus is heard.”

Money Flowing Back into Bitcoin?

The combined fiat money supply from the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan turned positive by the end of August. With central banks planning to move towards liquidity easing, the money supply could continue to expand.

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank cut interest rates, and the Federal Reserve is expected to follow suit next week. This could signal the start of an easing cycle that could lead to increased stimulus for US investors.

André Dragosch, head of research in Europe at Bitwise, noted that gold’s recent rally suggests a sharp decline in inflation-adjusted US government bond yields. Historically, such a drop in real yields prompts investors to shift capital into riskier assets, such as bitcoin and technology stocks, as seen in 2020.

Dragosh stated, “Gold prices have completely decoupled from US real yields. This implies two things: Either gold is overpriced, or gold is already anticipating a massive decline in US real yields. A massive decline in US real yields is equivalent to a sharp easing in monetary policy, which is not yet priced more broadly into financial markets except in gold, which is why bitcoin and other assets might follow gold higher.”

Central banks have been buying gold in large quantities, purchasing 37 tonnes of Gold in July. This is the highest monthly purchase since January when the net purchase was 45 tonnes.

However, Alex Kruger, partner at digital assets and macro advisory firm Asgard Markets, warned investors not to overinterpret the implications of gold’s rally for Bitcoin.

[gazetteweekly]

Digitalisation: A Double-Edged Sword for Consumers and Financial Systems, Says RBI Report

In its Report on Currency and Finance (RCF) for 2023–24, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) highlighted the transformative yet challenging impacts of digitalisation on consumer behavior and financial systems. Released on Monday, the report underscores how the convenience and accessibility brought by digitalisation can also lead to impulsive spending, herd behavior, and heightened risks of data breaches.

Benefits and Risks of Digitalisation

Digitalisation undoubtedly enhances the ease with which consumers can access financial services. However, it also introduces new risks. The RBI report points out that the rapid spread of financial trends and choices through digital platforms can influence consumers to follow the crowd, leading to impulsive spending and herd behavior. This is particularly evident during market frenzies, where mass buying or selling of stocks can trigger similar actions from other consumers.

Moreover, the interconnected nature of the digital financial system can complicate financial stability. For instance, widespread withdrawal of deposits due to herd behavior could lead to bank runs or failures.

Data Breaches: A Growing Concern

The report also highlights the growing threat of data breaches. In 2023, the average cost of a data breach in India was $2.18 million, marking a 28% increase since 2020. Common attacks include phishing and the use of stolen or compromised credentials. These breaches pose significant risks to both consumers and financial institutions.

Implications for Monetary Policy

Digitalisation impacts inflation, output dynamics, and the transmission of monetary policy in various ways. The report suggests that if digitalisation shifts credit supply from regulated banks to less-regulated non-banks, it could dampen the effectiveness of monetary policy. As such, central banks must integrate digitalisation considerations into their models to ensure effective monetary policy and financial stability.

Proactive Measures and International Collaboration

The RBI has been proactive in leveraging the benefits of digitalisation while mitigating associated risks. Digitalisation holds the potential to boost India’s external trade in goods and services, particularly in modern services exports. It can also reduce the cost of international remittances, benefiting recipients through higher incomes or savings.

In a significant step towards enhancing cross-border payments, the RBI joined Project Nexus, aiming to interlink domestic Fast Payments Systems (FPS) across several countries, including Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. This follows the integration of India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) with Singapore’s PayNow, facilitating faster and more affordable remittances between the two nations. Similarly, an MoU with the Central Bank of UAE aims to link India’s UPI with UAE’s Instant Payment Platform (IPP).

The Rise of UPI

The report highlights the explosive growth of UPI, which has seen a tenfold increase in volume over the past four years. From 12.5 billion transactions in 2019–20 to 131 billion in 2023–24, UPI now accounts for 80% of all digital payment volumes in India. As of June 2024, UPI is recording nearly 14 billion transactions monthly, driven by 424 million unique users.

Future Outlook

Cross-border digital trade policies will be crucial in leveraging new opportunities and ensuring data security and cybersecurity. The internationalisation of the rupee is also progressing, supported by a comprehensive policy approach.

In summary, while digitalisation brings significant benefits, it also poses new challenges. The RBI’s report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to harness its advantages while managing the associated risks to consumer behavior, financial stability, and data security.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Brazil's inflation seen higher in December, but annual rate on target

Brazil's monthly inflation probably sped up in December on higher costs of farm products and airfares, but the annual rate should have remained close to the central bank's upper target, a Reuters poll showed.

Overall, consumer prices in Latin America's No.1 economy behaved better in 2023 than previously thought, thanks to outstanding agricultural conditions, strict monetary policy, and some fiscal restraint efforts from the government.

Brazil's IPCA inflation index is forecast to have increased 0.48% in December, compared to a 0.28% rise in November, according to the median estimate of 23 economists polled Jan. 3-9. Consumer price figures are scheduled for publication on Thursday.

However, the year-on-year rate is seen at 4.54%, below 4.68% in November and the upper limit of the central bank's official target range of 1.75% to 4.75% for the first time since 2020. Estimates stood between 4.40% and 4.80%.

Continue reading.

[etiennekissborlase]

Bitcoin Price Drops Below $28000 Post Labor Day Rough Road Ahead?

Bitcoin Price Drops Below $28,000 Post Labor Day – Rough Road Ahead? https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-could-drop-below-28k/ Bitcoin price suffered a setback today, May 2, as its price slipped below the crucial $28,000 level following a four-month-long solid streak.  Throughout April, the alpha coin had been on an upward trajectory, experiencing its longest stretch of consecutive monthly gains since 2021.  However, the latest dip in Bitcoin’s value raises questions about the sustainability of its recent surge, leaving investors wondering whether this is merely a minor hiccup or the start of a more significant market correction. Bitcoin Price Loses $28K Handle Bitcoin experienced a 2% drop in the last 24 hours, and its value, as reported by CoinMarketCap, dropped below the $28K level, and currently at $27,974. Additionally, its 2.17% increase over the past seven days indicates Bitcoin’s ability to withstand market fluctuations and remain stable. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s recent 73% recovery from the 2020 crypto market crash has come to a halt near the $30,000 level, leaving traders eagerly waiting for new catalysts to boost the cryptocurrency’s value.  This rally has been driven by the belief that the US Federal Reserve will eventually adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and the argument that the US banking crisis has eroded trust in fiat currency. “The market is very jittery as it waits to see what happens to First Republic Bank,” Adrian Przelozny, head of crypto exchange Independent Reserve, told Bloomberg.  First Republic Bank Crisis Sparks Fears  The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank due to massive withdrawals has caused alarm among investors and depositors, who now fear that First Republic Bank could be the next institution to fail. In recent weeks, the bank’s wealthy depositors have been transferring their funds to larger, more established institutions perceived as less likely to collapse. According to the Wall Street Journal, First Republic Bank’s depositors have withdrawn approximately $70 billion since SVB’s collapse earlier this month, triggering concerns of a potential run on deposits. The bank’s high rate of uninsured deposits, at 68%, has added to investors’ anxiety, as this exceeds the FDIC’s $250,000 limit, leaving a significant portion of the bank’s funds at risk. While federal regulators intervened to protect SVB’s uninsured deposits due to the systemic risk it posed to the financial system, depositors at First Republic are not willing to take that same risk, fearing their funds may not receive the same level of protection. As a result, the bank is at risk of a mass withdrawal of deposits, which could potentially lead to its collapse and send shockwaves through the financial industry. Historical Data: Potential For Bitcoin Price Continued Growth Meanwhile, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, the Bitcoin price recent four-month winning streak through April marks the longest stretch of gains since the six-month advance leading up to March 2021.  Over the past decade, four-month winning runs in Bitcoin have historically been associated with an average surge of 260% in the subsequent year, indicating the cryptocurrency’s potential for sustained growth. This historical data provides a glimmer of hope for investors who have been anxiously waiting for Bitcoin’s value to recover after its recent decline.  -Featured image from Freepik via Bitcoinist.com https://bitcoinist.com May 02, 2023 at 07:35AM

[plugchain]

Brilliant Hong Kong enters the era of Web3.0

Summary: The wind is blowing, Hong Kong Enters Web3.0 Era!

Foreword: In 2022, after the delisting of FTX, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Singapore will tighten their regulatory policies on the encryption industry. Hong Kong announced a high-profile policy on the development of virtual assets, trying to strengthen the application of blockchain in the capital market, and striving to become the virtual asset innovation center in Asia. Hong Kong’s complete cryptocurrency regulatory framework will come into effect in June 2023.

Recently, due to the knock-on effects of FTX’s bankruptcy, Asian crypto asset-friendly countries have tightened regulations. Cryptocurrency investors in South Korea, Singapore and Japan were the largest users of the now-defunct FTX exchange, according to a CoinGecko report: Number of monthly unique visitors from January 2022 to October 2022. According to relevant data, the total traffic of these three Asian countries during this period accounted for 15.7% of the total traffic of FTX, among which South Korea had the highest number of users.

01. The change of attitude in Japan and South Korea stems from the delisting of FTX!

On January 10th, 2023, South Korea’s National Tax Service (NTS) suddenly seized the transactions of South Korea’s largest exchange, Bithumb Korea, and affiliates of Bithumb and Bithumb Holdings. Similarly, exchanges that have obtained Japanese licenses have all withdrawn from the Japanese market one after another. Among them, U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange Kraken said it would cease operations in Japan after Jan. 1 and deregister from the Japan Financial Services Agency on Jan. 31th.

Japan and South Korea, which were once positive about Web3.0, are now cautious.

The change in Singapore is more obvious. Previously, Singapore was relatively open to blockchain technology and financial innovation, attracting investment. According to the KPMG report, in 2021 alone, investment in cryptocurrency and blockchain companies in Singapore surged to US$1.48 billion, 10 times that of 2020, accounting for 50% of the total in the Asia-Pacific region in 2021.

However, Singapore sovereign fund Temasek Holdings lost $275 million due to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Huang Xuncai said: Temasek’s losses are huge, and Temasek has launched an internal review to study and improve its processes and learn lessons for the future.

On November 30th, 2022, Lawrence Wong stated in Parliament that Singapore has no plans to become a hub for cryptocurrency activities, but to become an “innovative and responsible digital asset player.” Singapore police investigated Binance for possible violations of Payment Services Act. While Singapore allows investment in cryptocurrencies, the Singapore government’s focus will be on sound regulation and continuous reminders and public education on lessons learned from recent experience. At the same time, it reiterated that the government and MAS have distinguished development innovation from cryptocurrency speculation, and they do not encourage retail investors to participate.

In December 2022, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) issued two documents in a row to tighten the supervision of encrypted assets and re-amend the “Payment Services Act”, which includes lending to retail investors for cryptocurrency transactions and requiring the local encryption industry to Enterprises distinguish between company and customer assets, and restrict the issuance of local stablecoins. According to regulatory regulations, stablecoin regulated issuers must meet multiple requirements such as having at least 5 million Singapore dollars in pegged currency.

When other Asian countries “strongly regulate”, Hong Kong chooses to “go against the grain” and approach encrypted digital finance.

02. Brilliant Hong Kong is actively approaching Web3.0!

On October 31th, 2022, Hong Kong, China officially released the “Policy Declaration on the Development of Virtual Assets in Hong Kong” (hereinafter referred to as the “Declaration”),

This declaration officially declares to investors and entrepreneurs all over the world that Hong Kong, China will become the world’s virtual asset center and Web3.0 center.

The manifesto was released on the first day of Hong Kong FinTech Week 2022. On this most important day of Hong Kong’s financial industry, the guests were all people in the industry related to Web3 and encrypted finance — from senior officials of the SAR government such as the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, China, the President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, to the co-founder of Animoca Brands Xiao Yat, FTX co-founder Sam, and executives from Citibank and Tencent Financial Technology, all the guests were discussing the development of Web 3.0 in Hong Kong.

The content of the declaration also clarifies the Hong Kong government’s attitude towards Web3 and encrypted finance: support NFT (Non-homogeneous Tokens), support stable tokens, support DLT (Distributed Ledger Technology), embrace Web3 and metaverse.

In addition, the government and regulatory agencies are also conducting a number of pilot projects to test the advantages of encrypted assets and their applications in financial markets, including the issuance of NFTs for proof of attendance during the Hong Kong Fintech Week; the tokenization of green bonds issued by the government for institutional investors Subscription; and the cross-border application of the central bank digital currency eHKD.

On January 12, 2022, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued a document on incorporating stable tokens into the regulatory framework. On January 31, 2023, it released the “Summary of Encrypted Assets and Stable Coins”. It is expected that in 2023~ Implementation in 2024.

Whether it is due to the regulatory requirements for the decoupling of Terra/USDT algorithm stable tokens, or because Hong Kong needs to establish the financial dominance of Hong Kong dollar stable tokens, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority needs a relatively flexible system to regulate and promote Hong Kong dollar stable tokens. development of the currency market.

On February 16th, the Hong Kong government announced that it would issue HK$800 million of tokenized green bonds under the government green bond program, which is the first batch of tokenized green bonds issued by the government in the world. As the first batch of tokenized bonds governed by Hong Kong law, it shows that Hong Kong can provide a flexible and convenient legal and regulatory environment for innovative bond issuance forms. The issuance of tokenized green bonds marks a milestone in Hong Kong’s strengths in combining the bond market, green and sustainable finance, and fintech.

03. Encryption Capital, Opportunities and Crisis in Hong Kong

On the evening of February 20, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission launched a consultation (public consultation) on proposals for the regulation of virtual asset trading platforms. According to the system that will take effect on June 1, all business operations or virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong need to obtain License issued by the Securities Regulatory Commission. In order to comply with the requirements of the new regulations, a transitional period of 12 months is proposed.

This new regime for centralized virtual asset trading platforms that provide non-security token trading services will come into effect on June 1, 2023. This also means that operators of virtual asset trading platforms (including existing platforms) that plan to apply for licenses should start to review and modify relevant systems and monitoring measures to prepare for the new system. Companies with no intention of applying for a license are preparing to wind down their operations in Hong Kong in an orderly manner.

As soon as this news came out, there was a frenzy in the currency circle, which triggered a surge in the “Hong Kong concept currency”. Obviously, behind this surge indicates a shift in investor confidence. At the same time, it has also made many virtual asset trading platforms very active, sending a request to Hong Kong to “apply for a license”.There are also many high-quality blockchain projects going to Hong Kong for deployment.

For example, on February 15th, Conflux Network announced on Twitter that it has reached a cooperation with China Telecom and plans to launch the first BSIM pilot project in Hong Kong. PlugChain, as a new public chain focusing on aggregated cross-chain oracles, supports Hong Kong to actively embrace Web3.0, and also attaches great importance to the ecological layout in the Asia-Pacific region. In the future, PlugChain will negotiate with the Hong Kong government on Hong Kong dollar stable tokens and infrastructure cooperation.

On February 20th, Huobi CEO Justin Sun announced that Huobi is applying for a Hong Kong cryptocurrency trading license. He said that Huobi will launch a new exchange, Huobi Hong Kong, in Hong Kong, and the new entity will focus on providing services to institutions and high-net-worth individual investors in Hong Kong. In addition, some project parties and institutions also announced that they are applying for Hong Kong encrypted asset licenses, including: OKX, Bitget, and Hippo Financial Services Limited, a trust service provider of Gate Group.

Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of cryptocurrency trading platform Gemini, recently said on Twitter: The next round of bull market will start from the East, which will remind people that cryptocurrency is a global asset class. For the United States, there are only two options: either accept it or stay behind. Governments that do not provide clear rules and good-faith guidance will miss out on the greatest period of growth since the rise of the commercial internet, as well as the opportunity for future financial infrastructure.

It is not difficult to find that the US SEC has recently dealt heavy blows to cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, BUSD issuer Paxos, and Binance. Hong Kong has embraced Web3.0 since last year, allowing investors to bet on Hong Kong and other eastern encryption-friendly regions. This year’s regulatory policies and cyberport production are actively deployed.

Hong Kong, the center of Web3.0 in the Eastern world in the future!

However, Hong Kong also faces challenges in becoming a Web 3.0 hub. A regulatory framework designed for traditional assets may not be suitable for rapidly developing digital assets and cutting-edge technologies.

The principle of “same business, same risk, and same rules” for digital asset regulation in Hong Kong means that traditional financial regulation also applies to digital assets. The rigor of obtaining a license alone has made it a more favorable playing field for traditional institutions. But innovation often comes from the unpredictable “grass roots”. Therefore, how to provide conditions for bottom-up innovation is a problem that needs to be solved.

Also, while Web 3.0 is fundamentally a tech movement, Hong Kong is not a tech hub with the same resources as Shenzhen or Silicon Valley. Therefore, Hong Kong needs a differentiated digital asset-oriented technical infrastructure.

The security of digital assets is different from that of traditional assets. The nature of their blockchain means that digital assets cannot rely on a closed security system like traditional finance. Licenses or regular audits cannot ensure the safety of user funds. Advanced technologies like multi-party computation are needed to give asset owners full control or co-management of their assets.

What kind of Web3.0 infrastructure does Hong Kong need to develop? Given last year’s heavy losses for retail investors, 2023 will be more promising for the institutional business. Digital assets are primarily held by exchanges, mining pools, investment funds, and other institutions. In order to reduce the risk of centralized platforms, a large part of these assets will eventually be transferred to custody platforms using the latest technology solutions.

More importantly, in order to comply with new regulations, institutions also need solutions that can achieve distributed private key management and fund isolation. Custody, institutional wallets, and digital security are just the infrastructure of a digital asset ecosystem.

Conclusion: In short, Hong Kong has the ability to become a virtual asset center in Asia. Whether it can lead the development of virtual assets in Asia still requires the Hong Kong government to carry out research and innovation in a proactive manner to effectively deal with the challenges brought by new assets. Opportunities and Challenges.

In the future, I hope that as mentioned in the “Hong Kong Declaration”: “Through a consistent, clear and clear regulatory framework, a solid foundation will be laid to meet the financial innovation and technological development brought about by the rapid development of global virtual assets.”

Web3 is worth looking forward to in Hong Kong!

[gunjanchokshi]

Reserve Bank of India finally introduced its third bi-monthly monetary policy on 6th August for the financial year of 2020-2021. The meeting continued for three days between August 2020.

[blockinsider]

Bitcoin Soars to $61K Amidst US CPI Inflation Slowdown to 2.9%

Key Points

Bitcoin (BTC) price surges to $61,000 as US CPI inflation cools to 2.9%.

Market anticipates larger interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in September.

New statistics from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects an annual inflation rate of 2.9%.

This decrease in inflation has had a ripple effect across the crypto market, pushing the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to the $61,000 range.

Inflation Data and Bitcoin’s Price

The inflation data for July was lower than the predicted 3% and the 3.3% reported in June.

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% in July, bouncing back from a 0.1% decrease in June.

However, the CPI for July signified the smallest rise since March 2021.

In recent years, high inflation in the US has caused a spike in the price of consumer goods.

CPI data indicates that grocery store prices are now nearly 25% higher than before the pandemic.

Global conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, have also led to significant supply chain disruptions, resulting in increased prices.

Yet, inflation has shown signs of slowing in recent months.

The 0.1% decrease in inflation recorded in June marked the lowest monthly growth rate since May 2020.

While this may not lead to lower consumer goods prices, Bitcoin saw a quick uptrend following the announcement of the July CPI data.

Generally, positive US CPI and PPI inflation data suggest a smooth recovery in the crypto market.

Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $61,385, showing a 4.5% increase in the last day.

The trading volume rose by 1.6% to over $31 billion in the same time frame.

This increase is substantial as Bitcoin has been experiencing short-term volatility in the past few weeks.

The rise in Bitcoin’s price can also be attributed to bullish crypto traders capitalizing on buy-the-dip calls in anticipation of future price increases.

In line with macroeconomic trends, altcoins also made impressive moves.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest digital currency, surged by 3% in the last 24 hours to trade at $2,755.

On the other hand, the prices of the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite remained stable after the CPI report announcement.

This could be because investors are looking for signs of moderate price increases.

Anticipated Interest Rate Cuts

Experts believe the slowing CPI print will allow the US Federal Reserve to start easing its monetary policy.

Specifically, the market is betting on a larger interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September.

Before announcing its plans to lower interest rates, the central bank will still wait for future PCE inflation statistics and jobs data.

Meanwhile, the question of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark fed funds rate range at the bank’s next meeting was closed before this morning’s data.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows a 50% chance of a 50 basis point rate drop in September and odds of 100 bps rate cuts by the Fed this year.

[zvaigzdelasas]

The IMF released a report today on the Bolivian economy in which it recommends adopting drastic neoliberal measures, including; reducing workers’ salaries, cutting public investments, and ending currency controls. These policies have turned Bolivia from one of the poorest countries in the region into it’s fastest-growing economy. 

The report takes aim at the government’s spending on development, saying, “The government must restrict spending, including eliminating the end of year wage bonus for workers, they must restrict the growth of wages for public sector workers, and limit the growth of public investment and subsidies.”

The ‘end-of-year wage bonus’ for workers (in both the public and private sector) refers to a policy introduced under Evo Morales that requires employers to pay their workers a bonus equal to double their monthly wage, but only if annual GDP growth is over 4.5%.  

The bulk of public investment is destined for infrastructure, while the majority of subsidies are for ensuring the price of fuel doesn’t rise. Bolivia is the only country in the region to see no rise in fuel prices, a policy that has kept inflation at less than 2%, unlike the rest of South America. 

The report even states that fuel prices must rise, and the inflation that would inevitably cause could be offset by cash-transfer programs for the poorest sectors, says the IMF: 

“The successful implementation of an increase in domestic fuel prices will require recycling a part of the budget savings in cash transfer programs aimed at the poorest deciles of the population.”

Bolivia’s Economy Minister, Marcelo Montenegro, emphatically rejected the report, stating today; “They prescribe the old recipes from many decades ago where they call for reducing subsidies, lowering public spending, gradually eliminating the end of year bonus for workers. We are not going to accept these recommendations because we are a sovereign country, and we have a sovereign economic policy.”

The policies criticized by the IMF have helped Bolivia reduce poverty by over 50% since Evo Morales took office in 2006. It has also helped keep inflation at the lowest rate in Latin America. Meanwhile, when IMF policies were implemented in the early 2000s, over 60% of the country lived below the poverty line.

In a recent speech in Brazil, Bolivia’s President Luis Arce stated that the country’s impressive growth is due to rejecting IMF recommendations; “We are in better conditions because, since 2006, Bolivia doesn’t have a single agreement with the IMF. In 2020 with the de facto government, they tried to enter into a loan program with the IMF, which we stopped as soon as we entered government, we reversed that IMF loan because believe the best way to make economic policy is to have a sovereign monetary and economic policy without being submitted to any international organism.”

16 Sep 22

[yobitnet]

Yobit.net Cash Is Dead Yobit Exchange

“Physical money is out,” said B.S. Kohli, an economic advisor to the top of the Indian state of Punjab. Mothanna Gharaibeh, Jordan’s minister of digital economy and entrepreneurship, agreed.

As of this year, Gharaibeh said, Jordanians can not buy government services, from taxes to hospital bills, with cash. they need to use electronic payment systems like bank transfers or mobile wallets.

“It’s getting to be a troublesome transformation,” he said, pertaining to the nation’s poor and unbanked populations. “But refugees can take mobile wallets using their UN Refugee Agency ID cards. … We just got to stop printing [bills] and put it instead on mobile accounts or in bank accounts.”

Unlike many dollar-dominance-skeptics in Davos for the forum, Gharaibeh said pegging Jordanian dinars to the dollar has served the smaller nation well for many years . He doesn’t see needing to reinvent money, just remove the anonymous properties.

“Because we'd like to prevent evasion ,” he said.

Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari – author of the bitcoin community cult classic "Sapiens" – said he’s skeptical of bitcoin.

“Money goes within the direction of more and more trust,” he said. “Bitcoin is predicated on mistrust. It’s basically a return to gold.”

On the opposite hand, Harari predicted the entire elimination of monetary privacy could happen “very quickly,” which he described as a “dangerous” prospect.

Ask almost any economist, banker or yobittex.com politician at the WEF about financial privacy and they’ll scoff. With shockingly few exceptions, most will say more financial data collection and passive surveillance will benefit society. (When pressed, they could emphasize the importance of encryption and regulating access to the info .)

RegTech expert Diana Paredes, an underwriter turned CEO of the compliance startup Suade Labs, agreed the sentiment among her public- and private-sector clients is “cash is dead.” However, she added, it’s the work of policymakers to guard consumer interests.

“What we should always be doing is regulating privacy around [electronic payments],” she said. “I want to have my data. It should belong to me, not the bank.”

Bitcoin in Davos

Fear not, bitcoiners: Not all members of the yobit Davos elite are pushing for e-fiat authoritarianism; some leaders here see a future where bitcoin continues to thrive.

“Bitcoin may be a fantastic idea, as long because it is monitored,” Kohli said, praising the compliance standards already upheld by bitcoin-friendly Swiss banks.

Bruno Le Maire, the French minister of finance , offers a shining example of a bitcoin-friendly politician.

He said decentralized digital assets will have a task to play within the way forward for France, as long as organizations just like the crypto custody startup Ledger and therefore the bitcoin development startup ACINQ still pay taxes and uphold regular compliance standards.

“We don’t want digital companies issuing their own currencies like sovereign states,” he said, making a subtle dig at Facebook’s Libra. “But we believe [bitcoin] can reduce the prices and delays of international payments. … We strongly believe fintech.”

Likewise, Mariam Al Muhairi of the state-backed Dubai Future Foundation says her team will spend 2020 exploring the way to support companies that want to use digital assets.

“It’s to assist regulate that area,” she said, emphasizing the team remains within the research phase. “There are entities that do own and use [cryptocurrency].”

Paredes added the simplest thanks to protect bitcoin’s usability is to teach regulators about specific use cases in order that they can make laws and compliance standards without jeopardizing projects useful .

The divide between cypherpunks and banks grows ever more narrow when experts drill right down to the specifics.

wef-2020-bruno

French minister of finance Bruno Le Maire et al. discuss the way to tax Big Tech. (Credit: Leigh Cuen for CoinDesk)

Common ground

Most crypto veterans at the WEF were even as hooked in to financial institution digital currencies (CBDC) because the bankers themselves.

For example, Elizabeth Rossiello, CEO of Aza Financial (formerly known by the name of its retail product, BitPesa), said she’s “really excited” about the People’s Bank of China issuing a CBDC. She sees this so far another customer onramp that enhances the very fact bitcoin makes up 7 percent of her company’s monthly volume.

MakerDAO Foundation CEO Rune Christensen agrees: “Generally i feel it’s specialized for the trend of digitizing the economy,” he said of the CBDC trend. “It’s just a step toward more blockchain adoption.” His project’s DAI stablecoin, he told CoinDesk, could at some point be the liquidity backbone for the world’s CBDCs.

Meanwhile, Cloudflare CTO John Graham-Cumming said his internet infrastructure company generally takes a proactive approach to promoting censorship-resistance, whilst his team supports clients like banks and similar institutions within the public sector.

“What goes over our network isn’t really our business. and that we don’t think it’s our job to work that out because that might be quite creepy,” he said, adding the corporate runs gateways to both ethereum and therefore the InterPlanetary filing system (IPFS).

From Graham-Cumming’s perspective, bitcoin is a powerful experiment because it actually works and continues to figure , no matter political and technical challenges. Yet, Cloudflare is more focused on ethereum.

“When you check out the smart contract stuff, that’s a programing language . we expect someone goes to create something interesting with ethereum and that we hope they’ll find our services useful,” he said. “As people start to figure with new organizations for financial transactions, they have to ask how that organization is brooding about security. … We’re all resting on top of something else.”

The only thanks to protect privacy during a world of digital cash, he said, is with a mixture of excellent regulatory policies and standard “best practices” that promote security throughout the ecosystem’s architecture.

“The idea of Web3 is that you simply should be resilient,” he concluded.

Zack Seward contributed reporting.

[guide101ph]

HOW TO INVEST IN PAG-IBIG MP2: COMPLETE GUIDE

Pag-IBIG MP2 or the Modified Pag-IBIG II is an optional financial savings scheme for participants who intend to save even more and also earn greater returns in addition to their routine Pag-IBIG cost savings.

So if your goal is to boost your funds or cost savings, one good option is to spend it to Pag-IBIG MP2 with an outstanding 7% returns rate for your cash.

WHAT IS PAG-IBIG MP2 SAVINGS PROGRAM?

The Pag-IBIG MP2 Savings Program is a volunteer cost savings policy for Pag-IBIG Fund participants that select to save more and gain high dividends, together with their Pag-IBIG Fund Normal Cost Savings.

WHO CAN SAVE UNDER PAG-IBIG MP2?

You can open up a Pag-IBIG MP2 account if you come from any of the following groups:

All active Pag-IBIG members, regardless of how much your month-to-month revenue is.

Former pensioners, despite age, that have at the very least pay 24 month-to-month contributions prior to retired life.

If you're not a Pag-IBIG member yet, you have to sign up initial and pay your month-to-month payments to be considered a main member.

REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD  OPEN A PAG-IBIG MP2

Pag-IBIG MP2 enrollment is not required for Pag-IBIG participants, yet doing so will certainly be useful for you over time.

Here are 5 good reason to start saving under the Pag-IBIG MP2:

1. Above-market dividend rates.

One of the most fascinating factor to save under MP2 is its above-market yearly dividend prices.

In the past few years, MP2 reward rates have expanded securely, averaging at 6.96% from 2015 to 2017.

In 2018, the Pag-IBIG Fund declared the MP2 returns rate at 7.41%. While the declared MP2 returns rate in 2019 is 7.23%.

In other words, the MP2 is much more cost-effective compare to the regular Pag-IBIG cost savings program. MP2 dividend rates also exceed the average rates of interest of investment products from business financial institutions in the Philippines.

With the HDMF's unparalleled monetary efficiency year after year, it's anticipated to proceed the MP2 program's amazing reward rates.

HOW PAG-IBIG MP2 IS COMPUTED?

Returns earnings are tax-free, which suggests you'll get the sum total without having to pay the 20% last holding back tax obligation.

To calculate your MP2 dividend, multiply the reward price for the appropriate year by your ordinary month-to-month equilibrium.

Right here's the formula for MP2 returns calculation:

Dividend = Dividend rate x Average monthly balance

Calculating the MP2 dividend is not as simple as it looks, though.

Prior to proceeding with the computation, it is very important to comprehend initially what the returns rate and the average monthly balance mean.

The dividend rate is the interest rate based upon the Pag-IBIG Fund's yearly earnings. The Fund usually introduces the dividend rate for a particular year in the first or second quarter of the following year via a press release on the Pag-IBIG site.

For example, the dividend rate for 2018 is 7.41%, which the Pag-IBIG Fund mentioned in April 2019.

Meanwhile, the ordinary regular monthly equilibrium describes the average of the MP2 financial savings you've gained by the year-end. To find out your average regular monthly equilibrium, you need to recognize your total collective savings for the year first and afterwards split it by 12 (months).

For less complicated computation, paper your month-to-month MP2 savings through Excel file or Google Spread sheet and afterwards compute the average.

For instance, you're conserving Php 500 per month from January to December 2020. Outlined on a spread sheet, your collective cost savings look like this:

PERIOD                                           CUMULATIVE FINANCIAL SAVINGS (PHP). January 2020                                      500 February 2020                                  1,000 March 2020                                      1,500 April 2020                                         2,000 May 2020                                         2,500 June 2020                                        3,000 July 2020                                         3,500 August 2020                                    4,000 September 2020                              4,500 October 2020                                   5,000 November 2020                               5,500 December 2020                               6,000 Typical Monthly Balance                  3,250

The amount of the cumulative financial savings for 2020 is Php 39,000. Separate that by 12, and you'll obtain a quotient of Php 3,250. That's your average monthly equilibrium.

An easier way to calculate the typical month-to-month balance is to use the AVERAGE feature in Excel or Google Spreadsheet, which generates the exact same quantity: Php 3,250.

Now, you can already determine the dividend for the year 2020 based upon a dividend rate of 7.5% (the price the Pag-IBIG Fund always utilizes in its sample reward calculations).

0.075 (dividend rate) x Php 3,250 (your average monthly rate) = Php 243.75 (total dividend for 2020).

To compute your returns for the next four years, just duplicate all the steps above.

If you use the intensified cost savings option, do not neglect to include the returns quantity from the previous year to the advancing cost savings in January of the list below year.

But if you avail of the yearly returns payment choice, do not include the dividend quantity from the previous year to the present year since it's paid out to you annually.

For your quick recommendation, the table listed below from the Pag-IBIG Fund shows the annual reward payout over a five-year duration if you pay Php 500 month-to-month to your MP2 account (based upon a 7.5% reward price).

WHY IS THAT THE DIVIDEND RATE OF PAG-IBIG MP2 HUGE?

MP2 returns prices have actually gotten on an ascending fad. The rates have never ever gone down listed below 7% considering that 2016 approximately today.

While these figures appear as well excellent to be real, there's no factor to worry or doubt as to why the Pag-IBIG MP2 reward rates are "too expensive.".

The Pag-IBIG Fund's active economic efficiency for many years has actually accelerated the MP2 prices. The federal government agency associates its solid monetary standing to its functional performances as well as solid real estate finance payment collections.

Because the Pag-IBIG Fund invests 70% of its funds in its housing financing program, people buying MP2 make from the interest payments of real estate car loan consumers.

Likewise, MP2 dividends originate from at least 70% of the Pag-IBIG Fund's annual take-home pay, which has seen stable development for the past 6 years. In 2019, the Fund recorded a take-home pay of Php 34.37 billion-- it is the highest ever before.

An amazing yearly monetary performance transforms to greater returns profits for MP2 account owners.

HOW TO ENROLL IN THE PAG-IBIG MP2 PROGRAM?

There are 2 methods on just how to open an MP2 savings account, its either using directly at any Pag-IBIG office or utilizing the on-line MP2 Enrollment System.

PAG-IBIG MP2 WALK-IN ENROLLMENT.

STEP 1: Submit a fully-accomplished Changed Pag-IBIG II Enrollment Kind at the nearby Pag-IBIG branch.

STEP 2: After encoding your information, the officer will release an account number for every of your MP2 accounts. You'll use this account number to pay your savings.

STEP 3: If you intend to pay your very first month-to-month MP2 cost savings right away, educate the Pag-IBIG police officer. You'll be offered a stub for your line up number for the repayment.

STEP 4: When your number is called, proceed to the cashier as well as pay the amount you showed on your MP2 registration type. Get your official invoice.

PAG-IBIG MP2 ONLINE REGISTRATION.

Online registration for MP2 is quicker than enrolling by hand, as you won't have to fill in the kind at the Pag-IBIG office. Nevertheless, you still require to head to the local branch literally to finish your MP2 registration.

 Here's how to register in the Pag-IBIG MP2 program online:

STEP 1: Go to the Modified Pag-IBIG 2 Enrollment System.

STEP 2: Type your Pag-IBIG MID number, surname, first name, as well as birthdate in MM/DD/YYYY style. Then enter the code as it shows up on your display. Click the Submit switch.

STEP 3: Fill in the on-line form. The fields for Pag-IBIG MID no., Call, Date of Birth, Existing Residence Address, as well as Email Address are already pre-filled, so no demand to load them out (On the screenshot below, the individual information are concealed for privacy objectives). Don't fail to remember to enter your Monthly Earnings and also Preferred Monthly Payment-- these are needed areas.

STEP 4: Review the terms and conditions listed below the on-line registration type. After that get in the code you see. Ultimately, click the Submit My Application switch.

STEP 5: A web page confirming your effective Pag-IBIG MP2 enrollment will appear. Keep in mind and also do not neglect your MP2 account number found on the upper right edge. The page additionally contains your achieved registration form (Once more, individual details are concealed on the screenshot below).

STEP 6: Review the terms and conditions. Write your name and sign at the end of the page. Make a note of the day too. Click the link at the bottom part of the page to publish your MP2 registration type. You may save it initially as a PDF apply for printing later. If you're an employee, publish an extra copy as well as submit it to your HR personnel or employer, so you can remit your MP2 cost savings through salary reduction.

STEP 7: Optional: If you intend to open up an additional MP2 account, repeat actions 1 to 6.

STEP 8: See the local Pag-IBIG office as well as send the printed copy of your MP2 registration form/s.

STEP 9: If you want to pay your very first monthly MP2 savings today, notify the Pag-IBIG police officer. You'll be offered a line number for the repayment of your application.

STEP 10: When your number is called, continue to the cashier and also pay the amount you showed on your MP2 enrollment kind. Get your official receipt.

HOW MAXIMIZE YOUR PAG-IBIG MP2 INVESTMENT TO ACHIEVE IMPORTANT LIFE GOALS?

Here are the different means to broaden your Pag-IBIG MP2 investment based on your objectives.

1. For long-term investment (10+ years).

If you remain in your 20s or 30s, you have greater than ten years to spend your cash for any type of long-term financial goal, like developing your retirement fund or buying your dream home.

For this, your goal must be to expand your money gradually. Right here's how to attain it via Pag-IBIG MP2 cost savings:.

Develop Pag-IBIG MP2 savings account with the compounded dividend choice.

Give an one-time MP2 payment (ideally not less than Php 30,000).

Withdraw your incomes at the end of the five-year maturation duration.

Re-establish your earnings by opening a brand-new MP2 account.

Repeat the process for one more 5 years and so on.

Withdraw your overall cumulative cost savings and returns when you've reached your target earnings.

2. For capital preservation.

If you remain in your old age (or approaching it), you can not take financial investment dangers anymore. So as opposed to buying the lasting, your objective is to maintain your funding so that your money doesn't lose its worth to rising cost of living.

Pag-IBIG MP2 can assist you accomplish that goal with the yearly reward payout alternative, which permits you to receive dividends per year while maintaining the value of your investment. Here's how to do it:.

Create a Pag-IBIG MP2 account with the yearly reward payment alternative.

Give a single MP2 payment (The greater the amount, the greater return you'll obtain).

Get your returns annually via your Pag-IBIG Commitment Card Plus or the bank account you registered in your MP2 account opening.

Withdraw your advancing incomes when your MP2 account gets to the five-year maturity period.

Re-establish/invest your earnings by opening a brand-new MP2 account.

Repeat the procedure for one more five years and more, as long as you require a consistent stream of income.

3. For multiple medium-term investment goals.

The Pag-IBIG Fund gives opening up as many Pag-IBIG MP2 accounts as feasible. Take advantage of this function if you have a number of goals to attain for the next five years or two.

The optimum variety of accounts will certainly depend on the expenses you're preparing for. Each account will certainly be developed for a details purpose, such as traveling fund, tuition fund, wedding fund, home/vehicle acquisition, etc

For more info like this click here: Pag-IBIG Calamity Loan Application: How to Apply?

[mostlysignssomeportents]

David Graeber on Spectre TV

I'm still processing last week's sudden, unexpected death of David Graeber - an anarchist anthropologist writer, speaker and activist who was prominent in the Occupy movement.

https://pluralistic.net/2020/09/03/rip-david-graeber/#rip-david-graeber

As I mentioned in my obit, the last time I saw David, it was when I appeared on the first episode Spectre TV, the plague-era online panel show he co-hosted, about heterodox economics and radical political economy. Now, the show's producers have put both episodes on Youtube.

Here's episode 1, "What's so basic about basic income?"

"UBI is a simple idea - each person is entitled to a monthly guaranteed income - but it's not so simple in its politics and implementation. The pandemic, however, has brought the policy into the spotlight as millions find themselves unable to work whilst mega-companies like Amazon earn vast fortunes. In this discussion, monetary thinkers, basic income advocates and a sf writer get together to debate the idea."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-MNdOUML-A

Here's the second episode: "Against Rentier Capitalism," with David Graeber, Michael Hudson & Guy Standing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rlIXAUGans

I hadn't seen this one, and it was a sad delight to watch.

Rest in power, David.

[billehrman]

Stay Long and Diversified

Stay Long and Diversified

The financial markets will remain in a holding pattern at elevated levels until they gain more clarity on the impact on global growth from the coronavirus delta variant and the future direction of monetary and fiscal policies.

The simple truth is that equities are the only game in town with interest rates so low and liquidity so high. Remember the axiom "Don't fight the Fed?" The Fed not only has our backs but also wants the economy to run hot. The stock market has rarely been so undervalued using Buffett's time-tested tool comparing 10-year bond yields, currently 1.31%, to the inverse of earnings yield, now 4.7%. We continue to emphasize investments in economically sensitive companies. We see above-average growth and returns for many years to come bolstered by a global recovery; the need to build additional capacity closer to home; the move to EV, going green and new technologies; and several government-sponsored infrastructure programs. In addition, we also own some of the great technology companies selling at reasonable valuations as we have indeed entered a new tech revolution in which all companies must spend to remain competitive. Earnings season has begun with a bang, with over 90% of the companies beating forecasts and raising future numbers. We are also paying close attention to balance sheets which have never been stronger. We expect to see significant increases in dividends and buybacks over the next year, which will support higher stock prices.

Getting vaccinated is the best protection against getting the coronavirus delta variant. More than 3.54 billion doses have been administered across 180 countries at a current run rate of approximately 31 million doses per day. In the U.S, 336 million doses have been given so far at a current rate of about 530,000 doses per day. Both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are effective against the variant, which is excellent news. Still, production must be ramped up even faster than current targets. The FDA must change the label from experimental to fully approved, which will alleviate some safety concerns. While the need for a booster shot has not been settled, we see billions of doses available next year to handle all needs such that we still see a global recovery beginning before next spring and lasting for several years.

Fed Chairman Powell was on the Hill last week giving his semiannual testimony to the Senate and House. He reiterated his view that the U.S economy has not improved enough to begin scaling back the central bank's monthly asset purchases while adding that inflation is likely to run high in the coming months before moderating.  He commented on production bottlenecks and other supply constraints as the principal cause of rapid price increases for some goods and services. He also downplayed any risks to the economy from higher asset prices. He continues to expect inflation to moderate over time and return to the Fed range around 2%. We agree as  most CPI increase was due to new and used autos, car rentals, hotels, and airfare. Used car prices have begun to cool. The CPI, excluding these areas, was up only around 2%.

The Fed Beige Book was released last week too and confirmed "moderate to robust growth," supply-side disruptions, increased bank lending, slight to moderate job gains, wage hikes at a moderate pace, labor shortages, and pricing pressures. We continue to expect the Fed to announce that they will begin tapering early in 2022, starting with reduced mortgage bond-buying, complete tapering by the end of 2022, and hike the federal funds rate by 0.25% in the first half of 2023. The bottom line is that the Fed will remain overly accommodative for several more years keeping real rates negative.

The Senate Democrats agreed to a $3.5 trillion top-line spending bill that includes most of Biden's social infrastructure agenda down from an initial level of $6 trillion pushed by the progressive Democrats. The agreement consists of Medicare expansion and excludes the bipartisan $579 trillion infrastructure bill. We need to see the spending and tax details before commenting but consider this bill overreaching from the progressives that will haunt them in next year's election, especially if inflation remains elevated. The market still has not embraced that a traditional infrastructure bill will be passed, which we consider a mistake. By the way, child tax credit checks have begun to go out this week. It will cost us about $100 billion and clearly will boost back-to-school sales this fall.

The domestic economy continues to roll along: industrial production increased 0.4% in June and capacity utilization rose to 75.4; jobless claims fell to a pandemic low of 360,000; import prices rose 1.0% while export prices increased 1.2%; July Empire State activity index rose to 43 while new orders hit 33.2 and shipments 43.8; inflation expectations hit a new high of 4.8%; consumer loans were substantial; the June CPI index increased 0.9% with the core up the same(read earlier comments about the CPI); the budget gap ballooned to $2.24 trillion for the first nine months down from 2020 pandemic levels; the PPI price index for final demand increased 1% in June; business inflation expectations fell 2.8% in July, and June retail sales jumped a surprisingly 0.6% with core retail sales up 1.3%. And all of this is before the child credit checks and additional fiscal stimulus.

China's second-quarter economic data was more robust than anticipated growing 7.9% from a year ago, led by strong retail sales and industrial production. The World Bank now thinks that China's economy will grow by over 8.5% In 2021. China's June imports and exports also came in well above expectations resulting in a trade surplus of $51.5 billion. And all of this has occurred before the Bank of China's easing policy last week  to  further stimulate growth.

We expect the ECB to change its policy guidance at its next meeting to accept inflation higher than its 2% goal, just like the Fed. Finally, Japan just lowered its growth forecast for the year due to high levels of coronavirus.

The U.S, Eurozone, and China will be engines of global growth in 2021, but we still expect the rest of the world to kick in next year as they get their arms around the coronavirus.

Investment Conclusions

We expect stock markets to move higher over the next year, driven by much higher earnings, dividends, and stock buybacks supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. While we still favor the economically sensitive areas as we see many years of higher than historical growth rates supported by catch up capital spending, the need to shorten supply lines, and multi-year government-backed infrastructure spending bills, we have also added many technology companies as we have entered a multi-year technological revolution. Naturally, we have many special situations and own no bonds as we still expect the yield curve to steepen over time.