#Macroeconomic data

[wealthwise93]

How World Events Influence Stocks: A Guide for Investors

How World Events Influence Stocks. Read more -> www.wealth-wise.blog World events, Stocks, Stock market, Economic calendar, Financial portals, News sources, Investment guide, Global happenings, Interest rate decisions, Inflation data, Corporate earnings

To understand how world events impact specific stocks, there are various approaches and tools that can help you better grasp the connections between global happenings and stock prices: 1. News Sources and Financial Portals Current news about politics, economics, and natural disasters often have immediate effects on financial markets. Here are some platforms that keep you informed about such…

[bitcoinversus]

Data From Power Law Theorist Claims ISM PMI Data Linked to Bitcoin Trend

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is a U.S.-based organization that conducts monthly surveys to assess business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures business activity levels by gathering data from purchasing managers across the country. The PMI reflects overall economic…

[economicsinaction]

Economics is getting reduced to data analysis 

Increasingly, the theory or `thinking’ is missing in economics, and the research in the discipline is getting limited to data analysis.  One reason is the doubts on the usefulness of theoretical frameworks of the discipline. It started with macroeconomics. Macroeconomic behaviour cannot be modelled as that of individuals and firms. It is a system wherein the behaviour all individuals, firms and…

[bookishgalaxies]

Advanced Placement Credit Given to…

☾☼✧☽ summary: the ap classes these different characters would take

☾☼✧☽ type: headcannons, modern au

☾☼✧☽ warnings: n/a

☾☼✧☽ a/n: my ap classes are killing me-

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✧ albedo

chemistry and art history

I think the chemistry part is obvious, as an alchemist he would find this kind of thing fascinating. Obviously he would enjoy the rigor and fast paced layout of the class. CB requires 16 labs to be done throughout the year in ap chem and he would adore this as well. Definitely thinking he’s pulling an A in this class, actually an A+

Albedo’s an artist and a curious individual. I imagine he would find himself interested in the history of art and the different pieces. As a chemist he is always chasing after whys and hows; it only makes sense for him to look for this in art as well. He would also pull a high A I feel in this class due to his commitment to his studies

✧ amber

human geography

Amber isn’t much of an academic, but she appreciates geography I imagine. As an outrider who is exploring and navigating, she would find the history of places and maps fascinating. Amber also, or at least I seem to think, would have a hard time taking an intense ap class. This one is one of the easiest out of the ones CB offers. I think Amber would get an A in this class and I am firm believer that she unfortunately is the one who reminds the teacher when homework is due :/

✧ diluc

macroeconomics, microeconomics, and statistics

Macroeconomics covers the economic of wider areas like regions and nations. Diluc being someone who has a business that is known worldwide would I feel find value in knowing about the economics of not only his country but others as well.

Microeconomics is more focused on the economics of an individual thing like companies. This is a class that would give the insight on the business side of economics.

Business requires a lot of data. Most of the time when analyzing data statistics is involved. Diluc would use statistics I feel to see what kinds of wine tend to sell on what regions and what happens when prices increase and decrease.

Diluc I see passing all of these classes, I think the economic ones with an A and stats with a high B.

✧ jean

comparative government and politics and psychology

Government and politics I feel is self explanatory because of how Jean pretty much runs Mondstadt. She has to contact diplomats from all nations and make negotiations. I think she would also find it kind of interesting about different types of government and how things are ran.

Jean would have to on some level be a people person. To some degree she would have to know how people think and feel. She would find the makeup of the human brain fascinating I think.

Jean is not letting herself get anything less than an A, let’s be real-

✧ lisa

english language and composition, english literature and composition, and latin (or teyvat’s equivalent, maybe Khaenri’ah’s language..)

Tumblr deleted Lisa’s part like 3 TIMES kill me :/. Anyways, I think the language composition and literature composition are obvious. I mean…..she’s a librarian.

The language thing I feel would stem from her wanting to be able to read more books. Therefor she wanted to learn a new language to broaden her selection of books

She wanted to take ap chem but decide to just do general instead. I definitely think Lisa could get an A in all three classes. I just think she gets distracted easily and would need someone to help her focus.

✧ sucrose

chemistry, biology, and computer science a

Obviously she would take chem with Albedo. I think it would take her a bit longer to grasp some of the concepts and Albedo might have to help her out some but she does overall well in the class, I say an A-

She flies through biology without a problem due to her interest in life forms. Is definitely earning an A+

OKAY HEAR ME OUT! So Sucrose wants to study how to manipulate life to make it better and brighter. I think she would be all over the idea of being a bioengineer. Thus, she would learn how to code.

Sucrose would do well in the comp sci a course I believe. I could see her being a really good problem solver and understanding Java well (the programming language you learn in comp sci a)

✧ venti

music theory

Don’t come for my throat, I love Venti I swear. However, I do not think he would preform well in this class. Music theory isn’t really so much about composing music as it is about the rules of composing music. I think Venti would do wonderfully with dictation (where you hear notes/chords and have to identify and write them). As well as sight singing (where you are given a sheet of music and have a certain amount of time to practice and sing it).

We all know Venti is great at composing music…but he doesn’t really like playing by the rules (aka all the figured bass line shit), so I don’t think he’d do so good. Venti can read sheet music sure but he didn’t take the time to memorize all the special symbols when he just knows music.

I’m going to be generous and give him a C considering he can do the dictation and sight singing. Anything where he’s having to analyze and determine cadences or other conceptual stuff he’s kind of screwed

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kaeya does not take any ap classes however he relentlessly bothers albedo while he is trying to study. Also totally tries to convince lisa at least once to bail on writing a paper and come to some party or whatever.

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thank you so much for reading !

stay hydrated and safe !

[iww-gnv]

For years, the tech industry seemed like the best place to grow a cushy, stable career. But as benefits disappear and companies lay off thousands, some are questioning whether they made the right choice. In the first two months of the year alone, PayPal, Cisco, and Amazon, among others, have announced layoffs affecting thousands of workers, a continuation of the mass layoffs from last year. All in all, nearly 300,000 workers in the tech industry have lost their jobs in the past year, according to Layoffs.fyi. While the wider macroeconomic environment is still good and job numbers have surpassed expectations, the good vibes have not rippled across all sectors. In tech, even those employees who were not laid off have seen employers scale back benefits while also demanding more of workers.

[darkmaga-returns]

The Democrats complained for MONTHS that the economy was the best ever - the BEST! But as we look across the global economy today, there's very real evidence that we're treading on thin ice. Beneath the surface of macroeconomic data lie unsettling signals pointing to a fragile and vulnerable economic landscape.from Eurodollar University

Job markets are cooling, consumer resilience is fading, and global demand is faltering in key sectors. Central banks, once steadfast on inflation control, are now cutting rates more aggressively than anticipated. Together, these indicators paint a picture of a world economy struggling to maintain stability, with potential downturns lurking in multiple directions. Below, we break down the key data points and industry insights that underscore this precarious economic moment.

Labor Market Weakness:

Declining Job Openings: Job openings tumbled by over 400,000 in September 2024 to 7.44 million, the lowest since January 2021. This signals weakening demand for workers.

Low Hiring Rate: While slightly up for three months, the hiring rate remains depressed at around 5.5 million in September 2024, far below healthier levels.

Declining Quits Rate: The quits rate fell to around 3 million, similar to 2015 levels, suggesting workers are hesitant to leave their jobs due to a perceived lack of opportunities.

Rising Layoffs: Layoffs and discharges rose above 1.8 million in September 2024, the highest since January 2023, signaling a potential uptrend in job losses.

Private Payroll Weakness: Private payrolls were under 100,000 in every month except September since May, even reaching close to zero in August (revised).

Weak October Payrolls: A meager increase of 12,000 jobs in October 2024, with private payrolls down 28,000.

Declining Hours Worked: The hours worked index has been flat for four months (since May 2024). The average workweek fell back to a cycle low of 34.2 hours.

Anecdotes:

Bartenders, waiters, and waitresses report declining tips, foot traffic, and overall lower restaurant sales. Some have had their hours cut despite base pay raises, forcing them to seek additional jobs.

Nissan cutting production of North American models by 30% due to lower sales and rising inventories. Similar struggles reported by Ford and Stellantis.

German auto parts maker Schaeffler AG cutting 4,700 jobs in Europe due to lower automotive production and general industrial weakness.

Expert Quotes:

Ryan Sweet (Oxford Economics): While a prior job openings increase was encouraging, he emphasizes the importance of consistent improvement and close monitoring of the quits and layoff rates.

Elizabeth Renter (NerdWallet): Observes that employers are hesitant to hire and workers are reluctant to leave their current jobs.

[mariacallous]

Trump Media & Technology Group, the Truth Social parent company majority-owned by former president Donald Trump, filed a document with the Securities and Exchange Commission this morning that helpfully details all of the ways Trump himself poses a threat to the company and its shareholders. While the company generated just over $4 million in revenue in 2023, Trump Media’s valuation has fluctuated wildly since going public in March, at one point reaching more than $7 billion. As of this morning, the company was valued at $3.7 billion. Trump Media has become a meme stock, where the stock price is governed more by vibes than traditional financial performance.

The SEC document filed by Trump Media this morning, which announced the public stock offering of 21.5 million shares, also detailed the company’s “risk factors.” These statements are standard for publicly traded companies, and usually include anything from macroeconomic headwinds to worst-case scenarios like earthquakes or terrorist attacks. The filing does include several risk factors that aren’t directly related to Trump, including competition from other social media companies, deficiencies in bookkeeping and accounting, and data privacy laws. And the company has faced multiple lawsuits from early employees of the company, who argue they deserve more shares.

But an entire section is dedicated to Trump-associated risks, making Truth Social’s risk factors unique because they cast Trump’s role as chief promoter and majority shareholder as a threat to the company’s success.

“TMTG may be subject to greater risks than typical social media platforms because of the focus of its offerings and the involvement of President Donald J. Trump,” the company said in the SEC filing. “These risks include active discouragement of users, harassment of advertisers or content providers, increased risk of hacking of TMTG’s platform, lesser need for Truth Social if First Amendment speech is not suppressed, criticism of Truth Social for its moderation practices, and increased stockholder suits.”

Here’s how Trump Media says Trump himself could threaten the company:

Trump’s Legal Issues

Trump Media noted that if Trump “were to discontinue his relationship with TMTG due to death, disability, criminal conviction, incarceration, or any other reason, or limit his involvement with TMTG due to his ongoing candidacy for political office, TMTG would be significantly disadvantaged.”

Trump’s History of Bankruptcy

“Entities associated with President Donald J. Trump have filed for bankruptcy protection in the past,” the company said in the filing, which noted that the Trump Taj Mahal, Trump Plaza, the Trump Castle, the Plaza Hotel, and Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc. had all previously filed for bankruptcy.

“While all of the foregoing were in different businesses than TMTG, there can be no guarantee that TMTG’s performance will exceed the performance of those entities,” the filing said.

Other Companies Refusing to Work With Truth Social

“To date, several potential third-party partners have expressed an unwillingness or reluctance to work on TMTG’s products or provide services for reasons including TMTG’s connection with President Donald J. Trump,” the filing stated.

Trump’s Use of Other Platforms

The company warned that if Trump stopped using Truth Social, its business would be adversely affected.

Trump has an agreement to post all content he deems as “nonpolitical” to Truth Social first, and must wait six hours before posting it on any website. But Trump, as a political candidate, may be able to argue that anything he posts is political content, meaning the company doesn’t have much power if he wants to start tweeting again.

“Consequently, TMTG may lack any meaningful remedy if President Donald J. Trump minimizes his use of Truth Social,” the filing states.

Politically Motivated Hackers

Trump’s involvement makes the company a prime target for hackers, according to the filing.

“TMTG believes that it is a particularly attractive target for such breaches and attacks, including from nation states and highly sophisticated, state-sponsored, or otherwise well-funded actors,” the company said in the filing. “And TMTG may experience heightened risk from time to time as a result of geopolitical events.”

Trump’s Self-Interest

Trump, who owns 57.6 percent of Trump Media, could steer the company to his benefit in a way that might not align with other Trump Media investors.

“President Donald J. Trump will, as a controlling stockholder, be entitled to vote his shares in his own interests, which may not always be in the interests of TMTG’s stockholders generally,” the filing says.

[eightyonekilograms]

The inimitable Maciej Cegłowski has this great article about the Wright Brothers, and why you never hear about them at any point beyond the initial Kitty Hawk flight. How come they didn't use that first-mover advantage to become titans of the aviation industry? Why aren't we all flying in Wright 787s today?

Well, the tl;dr is that after the first flight, they basically spent the rest of their lives obsessed with suing anyone else who wanted to "steal their invention", and were so tangled up in patent litigation that they never improved on their design, much less turned it into something that could be manufactured, and the industry immediately blew them by, with the Wright lawsuits being just a minor speed bump in this process. They were never again relevant in aviation.

I feel like this is worth considering as we watch Reddit self-immolate. In a broader sense this is happening because of macroeconomic trend, and non-zero interest rates, but it does feel like the immediate trigger for the idiocy at Reddit was them being pissed that OpenAI "stole" their content*, and wanting "fair compensation" for that, so now they're burning the site to the ground in this hopeless crusade which will not, actually, generate much revenue for the site or impede the AI industry at all.

There are a bunch of other examples of this dynamic, such as SCO and (more controversially, but I think it's true) Harlan Ellison. People are becoming stupid about IP again thanks to LLMs, and so I wanted to remind them that being consumed by an obsession with enforcing your IP rights often just makes you an irrelevant has-been.

* no they didn't, consuming public data for training a neural net is not stealing, no matter how many times people call it that

[poetusa]

＊*•̩̩͙✩•̩̩͙*˚31/08/24˚*•̩̩͙✩•̩̩͙*˚＊

I'm kind of having a STROKE trying to figure out how this dispersion graphic works because I feel like I don't have enough data in my excel sheets (my math isn't mathing).

I love macroeconomics, the teacher is awesome, but these are gonna be hard times and I need to get everything in place so I can properly focus. And also this is one of the most important subjects in my major so I gotta do better.

[luxe-pauvre]

Clearly, those with responsibility for making policy in any large organisation should thoroughly examine evidence of this sort. Personally, though, I hesitate to use the phrase 'evidence-based policy’, preferring instead to talk about ‘evidence-informed policy’. This leads to accusations of hair-splitting on my part, but the case is substantive. First, evidence-based policy implies that, if you look hard enough, the evidence will tell you what to do. It rarely, if ever, does. Partly this because, especially in the social sciences, the evidence is often contested and never complete. Also, while the evidence offers valuable insights, it does not indicate the values upon which decisions need to be based. For example, if you could show, on the basis of evidence, that a given tax cut would harm the poor, you would still have a decision to make: should you protect the poor, or is that imperative overridden in this case by macroeconomic considerations? If so, are you willing to pay the price in the short term? I'm not arguing one way or the other, just pointing out that there is a value judgement to be made. The evidence can and should inform the decision, but even when it is compelling, it won't tell you what to do. Dave Brailsford, when referring to tactical and strategic decisions about bike races, makes the point succinctly: The data informs, it doesn't decide.' Hence my preference for the phrase 'evidence-informed’. And the evidence can and should inform, whether it's a purely personal goal or a major strategic intervention at company or government level.

Michael Barber, Accomplishment: How to Achieve Ambitious and Challenging Things

[hondacivictrucknuts]

Kamala Harris has answered the question of who she is: She is a sex crimes prosecutor.

That's always been part of her biography, but on the Call Her Daddy podcast it became clear that it's also a dominant part of her identity. If a woman or girl you cared about were raped, you would be grateful for Kamala Harris to speak with her. She would know what to say, and she would say it with conviction, and it would help.

At one point in my academic career I got interested in sexual violence, and attempted to study it with the tools of empirical economics. I.e., if a jurisdiction implements X policy, what impact does this have on the number of women who get raped there? I didn't have much success, mainly for data availability reasons; but I also discovered that this style of question was totally foreign to the people whose careers consist of studying related questions by other means. As an economist, this took a while to wrap my mind around: all these people care so much about other people making a choice they don't like (i.e. to rape), and they're avowedly uninterested in the determinants of those choices. Eventually I came to accept it.

Kamala Harris's economics policies make more sense in this light. I've noted before that nothing she talks about corresponds to any theory I know of how prices, wages, consumption, growth, inequality, migration, deficits, and so forth are connected. She just wants to help families. And for a sex crimes prosecutor, who is used to taking the existence of rapists and rape as givens to which we can only respond, it perhaps makes sense to take GDP as given and make plans to redistribute it. The only thing she can think to do for small businesses is to give them a tax break (although maybe she's just not taking credit for giving them lots of cheap migrant labor), when regulations are a bigger burden for many small businesses.

There was a collection of essays published in the 90s called Transforming a Rape Culture. The book had a strongly implied but unstated assumption that the cultural project it proposed would reduce the suffering caused by rape in our society. Also implied, but less strongly, was that the reduction would be on the intensive and not the extensive margin. While the book begat much follow-up work, none included checking to see whether it worked.

I think Kamala Harris's notion of an "opportunity economy" is similar to the idea of Transforming a Rape Culture. It certainly sounds like a good idea! There are things which could be better in fairly obvious ways with no obvious downside. It doesn't rely on any falsifiable theory of human nature or social relationships, and it's not clear how you would measure the results.

Kamala Harris having no theory of macroeconomics is not necessarily a bad thing. Her Treasury Secretary will have to get confirmed by Mitch McConnell's Senate, and she'll probably keep Jay Powell for the same reasons Biden did. McConnell can hash out fiscal policy with Hakeem Jeffries, and Harris can ask how it affects real people and then sign the bill.

[shalomniscient]

ARCHIVIST’S TRIVIA: FAFNIR [HSR]

◆ Fafnir is an extremely meticulous individual, especially when it comes to managing her business and her money. Although she has a secretary, their duties are simply limited to ensuring the casino runs smoothly—by making sure equipment has proper maintenance and keeping inventory. All financial information and decisions are personally handled by Fafnir.

◆ Due to her long lifespan, Fafnir has had the oppurtunity to attend university several times over, for several different courses. Currently, she holds these degrees: a Masters in Business Management, a Masters in Business Administration, a Masters in Accounting and Finance, a Masters in Microeconomics and Macroeconomics, a Doctorate in Actuarial Science, a Doctorate in Data Science and Analytics, and a Doctorate of Juridicial Science (specifically in Corporate and Interastral Law). This gives her a grand total of 4 Masters Degrees and 3 Doctorates.

◆ In addition to her degree in Accounting and Finance, Fafnir is also a chartered accountant.

◆ Fafnir is excellent at mental math.

◆ Fafnir is a well-respected member of the Intelligentsia Guild, having published her Doctorate theses and a few other publications through the Candelagraphos. Hence, it is not uncommon to see Intelligentsia Guild members studying statistics to be ‘testing’ the machines at Gnitaheath.

◆ Fafnir knew and was friends with Ruan Mei’s grandmother, who was also a member of the Intelligentsia Guild.

◆ Fafnir guards her documents on all her finances with the same ferocity as she guards her money.

◆ Fafnir is about 400 years old.

◆ On the level above Fafnir’s vault in Gnitaheath is an extensive library. Some of the books in this library are up to a few hundred, even a thousand years old. They are relics of her past lives, and although Fafnir does not know what they meant to her previous selves, she painstakingly preserves each and every one. The library is a strictly restricted zone, only accesible to Fafnir and perhaps any extremely lucky guest.

◆ Fafnir enjoys paperwork. She finds it relaxing and reassuring to know the goings-on of her casino in quantitative terms.

◆ Unfortunately, Fafnir is near-sighted—so whenever she does sit down to do paperwork, she needs to wear glasses.

◆ Fafnir’s familiartiy with interastral and corporate law coupled with her expertise on various other mathematical and business subjects makes her somewhat infamous in the IPC, since it is incredibly more difficult to entice Fafnir into prematurely signing any deals or contracts. To IPC agents, getting stationed on assignment to Gnitaheath and dealing with Fafnir is colloquially known as a punishment.

◆ After Topaz’s ‘failure’ at Jarilo-VI, she was stationed at Gnitaheath. Surprisingly, Fafnir and Numby get along well—likely due to the fact that both of them are very good at ‘sniffing out’ profit. Topaz, on the other hand, did not have a good time.

◆ Fafnir’s weapon of choice in combat is a sword called Gram. It was once used to try to kill her—but Fafnir defeated her would-be killer and took the sword for herself.

◆ In both human and dragon form, Fafnir’s tail is prehensile. In human form, Fafnir can use her tail to immobilise someone or defend herself from attacks.

◆ If Fafnir is fond of you, her tail will curl around your feet as a sign of favor and protection.

◆ Fafnir wears cologne. She typically goes for dry woods/leather scents that have a smoky accent to them.

[warsofasoiaf]

What's you're opinions about Bernie Sanders? He's the only modern day politician who i can resonate with along with on the wild fields of American politics, even when I as a person isn't American itself.

Overwhelmingly negative. I'm already distrustful of solidarity-based politics in general and find socialism to be a failed economic system, so it's perhaps unsurprising that I'm so negative.

Sanders largely provides superficial readings of economic woes and has largely ineffective proposals for dealing with them. Modern populism on both sides of the fence is long on style and short on substance, and Sanders is no exception. Sanders can shout "billionaires" and "capitalism" until he turns red into the face, but his policy proposals are flimsy and unlikely to help the working class that he purports to fight for.

While progressive economic policy is largely a contradiction in terms at best, in recent times the progressive movement has largely been dominated by intellectual pseudoscience movements like MMT, which I've spoken before about the failures of here and here. The theory lacks a credible theory of inflation and relies instead on a vibes-based greedflation thesis, which is intellectually exhilarating because it foists the blame on those evil businesses, but factually false. When the MMT'ers were given broad control over monetary policy, their large-scale printing of money helped precipitate the 2021 inflationary crisis, and they ignored every single conventional economist saying that this was precisely what would happen. Worse, the proponents of the theory are not cognizant of the inflationary effects of their theory despite the empirical evidence both historically and recently - and their policy proposal to reinstitute broad price controls as a solution to the 2021-2023 inflationary crisis simply shows a lack of effective and workable policy solutions to economic problems (and was a chutzpah defense if I've ever heard one). So with a refusal to create testable models and a stunning lack of receptivity to empirical data, it's not likely to produce rational or effective policy. Contrarily, conventional macroeconomic wisdom proved effective in taming inflation while avoiding recession - it's actually quite remarkable how effective it has been.

However, if his economic policy is bad, his foreign policy is downright atrocious, and even among Bernie supporters, most of them tend to gloss over his foreign policy failures (and during 2016, he largely directed people to ignore foreign policy questions). I've repeatedly made the joke that Sanders is the most enthusiastic supporter of Latin American autocracy since Henry Kissinger, but it's actually not hyperbolic. Sanders has routinely gone to bat for dictators in Latin America provided they're left-wing and repeats their talking points regardless of how true they are. He's gone so far as to raise money for Daniel Ortega even after it was made clear that the money was going toward his campaign of shooting and bombing Native American populations and openly celebrating Ortega's jailing of opposition journalists. He's made mention of reconsidering our relationship with the Saudis due to their human rights violations, but when the dictator is left-wing, suddenly Sanders's firmly-held principles and "moral foreign policy" go out the window.

Thanks for the question, Anon.

SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King

[lovelanguageisolate]

Reading the introduction to von Neumann's Games and Economic Behavior. He's very in touch with the poverty of the state of economics, the huge challenges involved, and the need to focus on making a difference where differences can be made.

His portrait of how physics and mathematics coevolved is crisp and beautifully motivates how difficult applying the mathematical tools of the day to social problems is. I think he's after something like the Asimovian dream of psychohistory—of actually being able to predict human behavior on generational timescales and engineer societies based on those predictions. That same dream has drawn cybernetics nerds into econ for generations.¹

One thing that stands out: he smacks down so many criticisms of microeconomics still bandied around today. He does it very well, moving fluidly from one point to another, always hemming the opposition in. I'm happy, because he puts these arguments in such wonderful context. I'm sad, because people still make them now and don't seem to overcome his responses when they do so.

"Why does econ focus on these toy problems?" Because they're tractable and let us compare theory with both observation and intuition, which is unskippable foundation-laying (compare probability theory, which was first used to characterize obvious problems before we got things like Buffon's needle).

"Why doesn't sprinkling math on economics work?" Well, applying calculus works when doing marginal analysis, but most of the time, we mostly don't know what's happening. There's often no setup—no ansatz—we can do to gain new insight. When economists do this, they're often just putting fancy mathematical clothes on their verbal arguments, not discovering anything new. And calculus itself emerged from the need to solve kinematics problems in physics, and the kinds of problems we want to understand in economics often seem pretty different from this. Von Neumann really hopes that we'll discover new kinds of math to better understand economics, and Games is meant as a step in that direction.

"Why bother with math at all? Trying to reduce humans to a bunch of numbers is foolish!" Well, we can observe humans exhibiting preferences and making choices, which immediately suggests there's quantitative data (ordinal utilities) we can work with. And studying the impact of ordinal utilities at the margin using calculus is no more problematic, von Neumann argues, than studying clumps of atoms and other indivisible quanta as continuous bodies.

"Why don't we try to understand more important and complicated systems, like the US economy?" Because the system is complex and the data is pitifully sparse for that complexity²—and there's nothing to be gleamed from very complex data that we cannot theorize about. "Observation is theory-laden" isn't language von Neumann had, but he seems to be reaching for this idea. Von Neumann even does a David Deutsch-esque maneuver of saying, "we scanned the heavens for millennia in vain before it gave us ideas, which made all the difference."

---

1. The boldest form of this vision has a serious problem, which Karl Popper elucidated: as long as new knowledge is being created, and as long as predicting human behavior depends on understanding the state of human knowledge, prediction will always be limited, because the discovery of new knowledge is unforeseeable by definition.

2. I think a dynamicist breaking this point down further would talk about things like the number of parameters (and the enormous phase space that the economy must live in), the lack of stationarity on the timescales we can look at, and how few of the driving processes can be observed. As of 2023, my understanding is that most macroeconomic models taken seriously need to capture both behaviors we know must happen (like capital costs reflecting technology efficiencies) and strongly suspect must happen (like hysteresis in labor markets leading to sustained unemployment). Just capturing those behaviors makes the models so capacious that falsifying them, never mind fitting them to reality, seems hopeless. What's amazing is that von Neumann must have known much less about these things when he was writing, but he understands this phenomenon of data poverty extremely well.