#Kiri being the only one who could comfortably roast Toranaga to oblivion and lived to tell the tale

[sanflawoah]

After the finale, many seems to conclude that Toranaga's schemes has always been perfect from the start, that every events and every deaths are all part of his design all along, happening exactly how he wants it. But really it was only half true. His "sacrifices" aren't intentional sacrifices. No matter how clean he plotted, unexpected blunders always occurred beyond his control, he just happens to be very good at letting it flow rather than going against the current.

Tadayoshi and Tsurumaru, Fuji's husband and son. Toranaga never even intended them to die. Before he came to Osaka, he took Ochiba to Edo because her sister was in labour, knowing the regents wouldn't dare to do anything to him while the heir's mother is still in his domain. Everything would've gone all calm and well until at least Ochiba came back and the council voted. But Tadayoshi unexpectedly lashed out publicly with half-drawn katana in front of the regents (in Tadayoshi's defense: he does it out of loyalty for Toranaga), such offense would've sentenced Toranaga and his entire clan to die had he didn't de-escalate the situation. Tadayoshi then asked for seppuku and to end his bloodline out of shame for his outburst. Hiromatsu said he was foolish for it, but Toranaga acknowledged Tadayoshi's bravery, and ensured Fuji be spared from it.

The show didn't quite picture it, but in the book Toranaga was actually quite shocked to found that Yabushige had assembled a sizable army when he arrived in Ajiro, large enough to end him had Yabushige wanted to betray him right there. However, he kept a calm facade and maxed out charisma points to sway Yabu's army into loyalty, right out of Yabu's hands, acting as the true interest of the late Taiko.

Toranaga never intended to draw the first blood with the killing of Jozen. Nagakado was honestly to blame for this, even Omi too for provoking it. But then it turned out to be a W move for him, because in response the entire Osaka would be out for blood for his head into the open field . No matter how strong Toranaga's army is, attacking five armies inside a fully armed fortress would be a foolish instant defeat.

Then Nagakado acted out of place once again. So many had said that Toranaga "sacrificed" his son, when actually this boy is one rabid horse and Toranaga was right to pull his reins. If everyone is somewhat a "pawn" for Toranaga to use, he didn't actually count Nagakado as one. He always tried to keep Nagakado away from the big fight, if not out of love then at least out of wisdom for his son's recklessness. When Saeki handed the order for Nagakado to commit seppuku over the crime of killing Jozen, Toranaga sternly prevented it. Remember that he could've just let Nagakado took it like Tadayoshi did, it would've been a fair retribution and de-escalate the hostility, but still he didn't.

In Nagakado's defense, how would you feel being the son of a great lord famous for astounding achievement at such a young age, and then you, the no swag son. Even if Toranaga didn't expect Nagakado to copy him, the people around them would still constantly compare them. That's why Nagakado was so rogue to prove himself. It was exactly the same with Saeki, so jealous of Toranaga that when the opportunity arise to thwart his brother he took it.

Toranaga was fully prepared for the real Crimson Sky until the earthquake devastated his army, not to mention the unexpected betrayal from his brother. He had no choice but to surrender.

Nagakado's death was the most unnecessary, truly no beauty in it. He was the one blunder that kept blundering himself out of his father's control. But then turns out the mourning period for Nagakado was crucial for Toranaga to plan the next move. Without it, the council would've immediately ordered him and his clan's execution and it would be all for nothing. In the end, he made his son's ugly death into a meaningful one.

Then came Hiromatsu's death, the most costly death for Toranaga. Being friends for so long they understood the cost of the greater goal. Yes Nagakado's death did buy him some time, but the council wouldn't be so convinced of his surrender, the master of trickery™. Plus they took Nagakado's death as a bare minimum L. "Don't give up on our lord, even when it appears he has given up on himself." Hiromatsu knew that they have come so far and they couldn't stop now, so out goes Toranaga's best guy to complete the surrender facade.

The secret ultimate ace card was Mariko. From the beginning, no one seemed to fully catch up with Toranaga, not even Hiromatsu, except for Mariko. The relationship between Toranaga and Mariko was a mutual one, each with their own goals but happens to be intertwined in the same path.

Toranaga didn't even intend for Mariko to die. The book explained that Toranaga had future plans for Mariko after the war, to divorce her from Buntaro and have her as his messenger to England with John. He knows that Mariko was the only one who could reach Ochiba. He just wanted Mariko to come get Kiri, Shizu, and their newborn son to get out of Osaka, at the same time tell Ishido he's a bitch and hopefuly broke Ishido and Ochiba's alliance (the Minowara sends their regards). It was ONE BIRD throwing TWO STONES. Unfortunately, then he lost his ace card too but damn did it worked a little too well, he literally won the war because of it.

People expected John to be Toranaga's secret weapon, setting the expectation of a "Some dude got isekai-ed into foreign world and now he's destined to save it" trope.

To borrow Mon Mothma's quote: "I show you the John in my hand, you miss the Mariko at your throat".

Yabushige was the audience's voice when he asked "How does it feel to shape the wind to your will?" Because everyone saw Toranaga's final reveal and thought damn it was him all along! But then Toranaga went meta and replied, "I don't control the wind, I only study it." No, everything didn't fell into place like exactly how he wanted. He's not the all-knowing untouchable god. Many times he was crossed and blocked, but instead of trying to force his path through, he simply let it flow. His schemes are not a rigid linear one like how his opponents worked, but it branches and found its own way, and that's how he won.