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[quaranmine]

The Backcountry Permit Situation

Rereading Firewatch AU again and I want to make a clarifying comment about the backcountry permit thing, since it's a such an important part of the plot from Chapter 5 - 10. I haven't seen anyone be confused about this yet fortunately, but in my opinion the distinctions in the plot get pretty in the weeds here. So this is just me walking through it.

The Forest Service IS supposed to be in the wrong about the permit. That was an actual mistake that probably cost Mumbo dearly in a roundabout way. They are also wrong to have not disclosed this to Grian or Mumbo's family.

But here's where I say that it's not a conspiracy. Grian's thoughts about the mistaken permit is that it impacted Mumbo's search process. He thinks that the Forest Service wanted to cover up their mistake, and as a result botched the search to hide it. Admitting that they made a mistake with the permit would indicate they were at fault, and they don't want to be at fault because they're the government, so they continue to search the Cloud Lake Trail like nothing happened. Grian thinks that they knew Mumbo wasn't there and kept searching it anway to make themselves look good. He thinks they purposefully searched an area Mumbo wasn't in to hide their mistake. He thinks that they should have pursued other areas, but didn't want the liability of admitting Mumbo wasn't on the trail. He and Scar both think it was unprofessional to not, somehow, explore areas that weren't even connected to the original trail because SAR should have been "able to predict that."

The non-conspiratorial reality is much simpler. The Forest Service mistakenly issued Mumbo a permit for a trail that hadn't been reopened yet because the person who issued it simply didn't know. It's pre-computer, so it's not like they had an electronic system to flag this. So when Mumbo is reported missing, they have 1) Mumbo's permit for that trail, 2) Mumbo's car at that trailhead, and 3) a witness who said they saw Mumbo on/near the trail. There is NO reason to assume Mumbo didn't go there anyway. All evidence actually points to him being there. In fact, as stated in the files Grian later stole, the SAR incident commander had determined that the damage to the trail made it more likely for Mumbo to get lost. He would have entered altered terrain where the trail was obscured, and might have taken a wrong turn since everything was no longer marked or clear. I have seen real life cases where this happened to hikers who got lost!

It's stated that the SAR did do aerial searches of some other locations around Cloud Lake, but only of official trails off the same road as Cloud Lake. Since, you know, those are the ones that officially connect and are close to where his vehicle was found. Grian himself says he never made it to Cloud Lake because he was "asked to help in other areas." So we can already see that there was search acitivity that wasn't concetrated on the the rockslide area.

When Scar asks what the Forest Service thought about Mumbo's things being found on a completely different trail, and why he was permitted for a closed trail, he's told they were "operating on information inconsistent with reality and conducting an investigation of it." They both treat this as sinister-sounding but it's pretty much just a roundabout polished governmenty way of saying "we have no clue why he was at Pinnacles either and are looking into it" lol.

When Grian confronts the District Ranger, he's mad. The District Ranger admits fault to him about the permit, but explains again that they didn't see a reason why Mumbo wouldn't be in the Cloud Lake area. Grian accuses them of purposefully blocking off the spur trail Mumbo took—essentially saying that the Forest Service knew Mumbo took that path, and quietly blocked it off without mentioning it. The District Ranger replies that the trail crews were just doing their jobs. That's the truth. Since the Cloud Lake Trail needed repairs to reopen, a trail crew worked heavily on it. Part of their job is streamlining the trail.

Unfortunately, most of the critical errors in Mumbo's case were always his own. He shouldn't have taken the unmarked trail, he should've turned around once he realized the Cloud Lake Trail was messed up. I don't mean it in a victim-blamey "he deserved his outcome due to stupidity" way. I simply mean it in the sense that we're all human and unfortunately some silly mistakes or moments of poor decision-making are final.

So basically:

Forest Service issuing the mistaken permit and not admitting it: actual mistake, they were wrong

Forest Service purposefully botching the search and focusing on an area they knew Mumbo wasn't in, to decrease their own liability: this didn't happen, Grian is wrong

Mumbo's family could probably sue them for wrongful death based on the permit thing, though. I don't know how successful it would be but in my purely amateur opinion I think there's a reasonable case to be made that Mumbo never would've been in the position to make his mistakes if he'd never stepped foot on the trail. He might've gone elsewhere and had an entirely normal trip. If only :(

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[ketavinsky]

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