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junker-town · 5 years ago

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Washington’s rebuilding, but could run away with the Pac-12 anyway

Chris Petersen’s Huskies are retooling after a remarkable three-year run. There are as many reasons for excitement as fear, however.

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

Imagine going back in time to 2008, running into some Washington fans at the tail end of their 0-12 campaign under Ty Willingham, and telling them that in a decade’s time, their Huskies would be...

winning double-digit games each year,

taking two of three conference titles (don’t tell them it’s the Pac-12, let’s throw just one thing at them at a time),

dominating the Apple Cup (six wins in a row and counting),

improving their recruiting almost every year (from an average ranking of 28.8 nationally from 2014-17, to 16th in back-to-back years in 2018-19),

... and that they’d maybe feeling the slightest bit underwhelmed by it all.

What?

Washington has a strange way of warping expectations, and both of the men hired since Willingham was let go have managed to exceed expectations in a manner that leaves you realizing you could have had more.

First, Steve Sarkisian did it. He came aboard at a time when Washington was at maybe its lowest ever ebb. The Huskies were indeed 0-12 and 114th in S&P+ in 2008 and had won just 12 games in the five years before his arrival. They improved to 67th in his first year, then 60th, 53rd, 49th, and 15th over the next four.

This was a remarkable performance, but for every breakthrough, there was a setback. Beat USC in 2009, then lose by 27 to Oregon State. Beat USC again in 2010, then lose three in a row by a combined 138-30. Beat Stanford in 2012, then lose three in a row by a combined 128-52. On paper, the improvement was linear and steady. On the field, though, they were dramatically inconsistent.

Sark took the USC head job in 2014, opening the door for Washington take another step forward with Boise State’s Chris Petersen.

Petersen began his UW tenure 15-12, but the Huskies surged in his third year. They were 12-2 and third in S&P+ in 2016, winning the Pac-12 and reaching the College Football Playoff, and then settled in at 10th in 2017 and 14th (with another conference title) in 2018.

Undeniable success! And missed opportunities. A baffling 13-7 loss to Arizona State in 2017 cost the Huskies another division title and, in theory, a potential shot at the CFP. Another offensive no-show in 2018, a 12-10 loss to Cal, cost them another potential top-10 finish at the least. Plus, after taking such a leap in 2016 with such a young team, it was easy to assume another top-five run at some point. That was not to be.

Regrets or no, a new era of sorts begins for the Huskies in 2019. A lot of the names we have grown to associate with Washington football — quarterback Jake Browning, running back Myles Gaskin, offensive tackle Kaleb McGary, defensive tackle Greg Gaines, linebackers Ben Burr-Kirven and Tevis Bartlett, DBs Byron Murphy, Taylor Rapp, and JoJo McIntosh — have finally gone, leaving behind a new generation of athletes that were almost certainly better recruits than their predecessor but are also new.

On paper, this seems fine. But it’s going to be different. And different can be scary.

Offense

Browning was the face of this “disappointing” rise for a lot of Husky fans. A four-year starter, he was absolutely brilliant in 2016, throwing for 3,400 yards, 43 touchdowns, and a 167.5 passer rating that was behind only Baker Mayfield’s among power conference QBs. It was easy to envision him continuing to improve and perhaps making a Heisman run at some point.

Instead, he had already maxed himself out. His completion rate continued to rise (67 percent in 2017-18), but he threw more interceptions, too, as opponents better got to know his tendencies and learned how to bait him into mistakes. His passer rating was 147 over his final two seasons — still obviously good but not as good — and he finished his career with an absurd 12,296 passing yards and 94 touchdowns. But it was easy to get the impression that Washington fans were ready for something new.

Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Jacob Eason

Enter Eason. A product of Lake Stevens (Wash.), about a 40-minute drive from the UW campus, Eason was a top-five recruit in the 2018 class and signed with Georgia. He started for the Dawgs in 2016 — a freshman QB for freshman head coach Kirby Smart — and dealt with all the ups and downs you’d expect.

Eason finished 2016 with just a 120.3 passer rating and a 16-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio, got hurt in the first game of 2017, and got Wally Pipp’d by another freshman, Jake Fromm, who led the Dawgs to the national title game. Then he moved back home.

Eason is everything Browning wasn’t: statuesque (6’6, 228), cannon-armed ... and mostly unproven. Assuming he’s undergone the mental development we would expect from both the typical blue-chipper and the typical Petersen quarterback, he could have an enormous season, especially with the receiving corps he’s got at his disposal.

Aaron Fuller has caught 100 passes for 1,349 yards over the last three seasons and thrived after moving into a go-to role as a junior, catching 58 balls and coming up big in two marquee non-conference games (seven catches for 135 yards against Auburn, then seven for 80 in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State).

Fellow senior Andre Baccellia is an ace possession man. He caught 55 balls last year with a team-high (among primary targets) plus-12.8 percent marginal efficiency rating. His usage is an extension of the run game, punishing opponents for having too many defenders in the box, eight yards at a time.

Junior Ty Jones is a big former blue-chipper who looked great early in 2018 (seven catches for 153 yards in the first two games) but caught more than three balls just one more time all year.

Tight ends Cade Otton and Hunter Bryant combined to catch 24 balls for 412 yards and four touchdowns in limited, but explosive, action.

Marquis Spiker, Austin Osborne, and Trey Lowe are all four-star redshirt freshmen. Spiker was a top-60 overall prospect, and incoming freshman Puka Nacua was top-150 as well.

That’s a lot. It’s very easy to assume big things from Eason, but he still has to deliver. He hasn’t yet.

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Aaron Fuller

Offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan’s 2018 attack was a little bit on the predictable side, running more than the national average on standard downs and throwing more than the national average on passing downs. If Eason’s ready, those ratios could shift to something more pass-happy, but we can assume that Salvon Ahmed is still going to get a lot of touches.

Another former star recruit, Ahmed was an exciting third-down back in 2018, averaging 5.9 yards per carry over 7.4 carries per game and catching 21 of 22 passes for 170 yards. One assumes that he’ll move into Gaskin’s role and that 5’7 junior Sean McGrew (50 carries for 226 yards, six catches for 110) is custom-made for a third-down type of role. Neither of these players is very big, but Hamdan has Kamari Pleasant (6’0, 215) and redshirt freshman Richard Newton (6’0, 213) if he needs someone to carve out a short-yardage niche.

The line is loaded. McGary was a four-year starter and first-team all-conference tackle, but the return of 6’8 left tackle Trey Adams (first-team all-conference in 2016, 32 career starts) from injury basically gives UW five returning line starters all the same. Center Nick Harris was also all-conference last year, and UW boasts 106 career starts up front.

Defense

Washington had the best non-intrusive defense imaginable in 2018. The Huskies finished fourth in Def. S&P+ — their third straight year in the top 15 — and did so with balance. They were 10th in Rushing S&P+ and 18th in Passing S&P+. They never allowed big plays, and they stiffened well in the red zone, allowing just 3.7 points per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the 40), 12th in FBS.

They did so despite ranking 118th in completion rate allowed, 107th in sack rate, 97th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and 67th in overall havoc rate. They let you execute your play, tackled you immediately, and then, once you eventually fell behind schedule, let their talented DBs feast.

Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Benning Potoa’e (8)

There’s a strong correlation between disruption and success ... for most teams, at least. But the structure created by coordinator Jimmy Lake and co-coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and managed by QB-on-the-field Ben Burr-Kirven was masterful its containment ability.

From a talent perspective, there’s no reason to think will be anything other than another top-15 unit in 2019. There are veterans at each level, from linemen Levi Onwuzurike and Benning Potoa’e to linebackers Ryan Bowman and Brandon Wellington to cornerback Myles Bryant. And the uptick in recent recruiting shines clearly when you notice that, among freshmen and redshirt freshmen alone, there are six former blue-chippers on the line, three at linebacker, and five in the secondary. If just a few of these players are ready to play a role, this will be Washington’s most athletic defense yet under Petersen.

There has to be at least a little bit of concern, though, about where turnover has come. Burr-Kirven was picked by the Seattle Seahawks in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL draft, and safeties Taylor Rapp and JoJo McIntosh are also gone. There’s plenty of experience on the edges — in addition to Bryant, Bowman is sturdy at OLB, and corners Elijah Molden and Keith Taylor could both be ready for breakthroughs — but losing a star ILB and both safeties after dominating with big-play prevention is scary.

Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Myles Bryant

If nothing else, the 2019 schedule will help this defense out. There’s no top-10 matchup vs. a team like Auburn right out of the gates this time. Instead, the first four games are against Eastern Washington (which can at times be problematic, but this should be manageable since Washington State stole EWU quarterback Gage Gubrud), Cal (all defense), Hawaii, and BYU. Those teams should provide a test, but not too much of one.

It helps, too, having an anchor like Onwuzurike, maybe the best tackle in a league that has quite a few strong tackles.

Special Teams

Petersen inherited a strong special teams unit from Sarkisian and has slowly let his grip slip. UW was 26th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2014, 51st in both 2015 and 2016, 105th in 2017, and a ghastly 117th last year.

This unit was a plain old dud in 2018, failing to rank in the top 80 in any single category. Place-kicker Peyton Henry was a freshman and missed field goals in tight losses to both Auburn and Oregon, but at least he was a freshman. The rest of the unit didn’t have that excuse.

Everyone’s back. We’ll see if that’s a good thing.

2019 outlook

2019 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 31-Aug Eastern Washington NR 34.8 98% 7-Sep California 60 16.7 83% 14-Sep Hawaii 94 25.7 93% 21-Sep at BYU 50 9.5 71% 28-Sep USC 29 9.4 71% 5-Oct at Stanford 32 5.1 62% 12-Oct at Arizona 52 9.7 71% 19-Oct Oregon 20 6.3 64% 2-Nov Utah 17 4.8 61% 8-Nov at Oregon State 105 24.6 92% 23-Nov at Colorado 68 13.4 78% 29-Nov Washington State 36 11.3 74%

Projected S&P+ Rk 15 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 25 / 16 Projected wins 9.2 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 17.2 (13) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 18 2018 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 3 / 7.6 2018 TO Luck/Game -1.7 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 50% (67%, 34%) 2018 Second-order wins (difference) 10.9 (-0.9)

It’s not hard to see why Oregon has been the Pac-12’s preseason darling. The Ducks return QB Justin Herbert, while most of UW’s marquee names are gone.

On paper, though, this is still Washington’s conference. The Huskies are less proven but more athletic, and they’re projected 15th in S&P+, slightly ahead of both Utah and UO. Better yet, the schedule sets up almost perfectly. The non-conference slate is indeed lighter than last year’s, and all three of UW’s projected top-30 opponents (USC, Oregon, Utah) have to visit Seattle. Stanford’s the only road opponent projected better than 50th.

The result: the Huskies are projected favorites in all 12 games and are favored by at least 4.8 points in each.

Granted, they were favored in most of last year’s games, too, and still managed to drop a few that were very much within their grasp. We’ll see if the new blood makes them more or less capable of taking advantage of the opportunity in front of them. Because make no mistake: there’s still plenty of opportunity in front of them.

Team preview stats

All 2019 preview data to date.

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