#Jon Marans
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez took the stage at the Democratic National Convention a little after 9:30 p.m. Monday, smack dab in the middle of primetime.
President Joe Biden, meanwhile, was relegated to a speaking slot outside of the coveted broadcast window nearly two hours later.
The striking contrast of their scheduling said a lot — not just about Biden’s and AOC’s personal trajectories, but about the ideological course of the Democratic Party.
In the days since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democrats’ presidential nominee, we’ve seen a concerted effort to recast Harris as the kind of candidate that moderates can unreservedly pull the lever for.
Within hours of Biden stepping aside and endorsing her, The New York Times published a puff piece explaining “How Kamala Harris Rose as a California Moderate.”
Harris’ communications team has been hard at work slowly recanting the radical platform she ran for the White House on back in 2019.
And her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has had his far-left record papered over by his Midwestern affect.
But the optics of Monday night betrayed the true nature of both the Democratic Party and its standard-bearer.
This is not a party trying to persuade moderate voters, appeal to them or make concessions to their values.
Instead, it’s trying to dupe them.
Ocasio-Cortez was treated to a hero’s welcome on the stage Monday, and her speech — which featured plenty of her signature economic demagoguery condemning “two-bit union busters” and lauding “working people,” but also saw her tout Harris’ “tireless” work toward a euphemistic “cease-fire” in Gaza — received rave reviews from the media chorus.
“Once an outsider, AOC now has the entire DNC hall chanting her name,” HuffPost’s Daniel Marans observed on X.
At The Nation, Jeet Heer declared that she had cemented herself as part of “the future of the Democratic Party.”
“I think the young congresswoman from New York, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, may have a prominent future in American politics,” submitted Matthew Yglesias in what was meant as a wry understatement.
“AOC is the closest thing to Obama level speechmaking talent in Democratic politics today,” gushed activist Armand Domalewski.
“Damn,” offered Obama alum and Pod Save America bro Jon Favreau, “AOC knows how to give a speech.”
Of course, the fact that Ocasio-Cortez is enjoying a coming-out party of sorts at a convention celebrating Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket should come as no surprise.
Five years ago, Harris campaigned for the presidency as an AOC-style Democrat, endorsing Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal, flirting with the Defund the Police and Abolish ICE movements, and showering Ocasio-Cortez herself with praise.
Asked about Ocasio-Cortez’s support for income tax rates of up to 80%, Harris gushed that the congresswoman was “challenging the status quo,” calling the effort “fantastic.”
Even after her own White House hopes had gone down in flames, Harris kept up the bit, urging Americans to send their hard-earned cash — in the midst of a pandemic — to a bail fund that later sprung murderers and rapists from prison.
It’s been this new Harris campaign’s operating theory that it can put all of the veep’s past leftist foolishness behind her by never letting her be pinned down about the kinds of policies she would implement from the Oval Office.
That’s why nearly a month after becoming the presumptive nominee, her website still says nothing about what she hopes to accomplish as president, and why she’s yet to sit down for a single major interview or stand for a single press conference.
But AOC’s address — and Democrats’ celebration of it — has betrayed the party’s true direction with Harris at the helm.
That the proud socialist’s shining moment came at the expense of Biden was doubly symbolic.
In 2020, Biden was the only viable non-radical candidate to seek the Democratic nomination.
Four years later, his presidency and his legacy have been undone — in no small part because he embraced an unpopular progressive agenda that has produced chaos abroad and suffering at home.
And as a final indignity, Biden was kept off the stage until everyone but the true Dem diehards had turned off their TVs, so that his party could begin to lay the groundwork for their new, far-left wing to take the reins.
The only question that remains is whether Americans will heed the warning signs before their eyes — or let Democrats off the hook for hiding their radicalism behind a smokescreen of platitudes.
Isaac Schorr is a staff writer at Mediaite.
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halloween
It’s near Halloween so he’s thinking about it. Hates that he’s thinking about it—and knows there will never be a single Halloween that he doesn’t think of it.
Just, this time it’s different. When the memory sneaks up on him in the middle of the night, when it’s lingering there in the morning, when it’s inside his head during his commute to class, when it’s still there picking up food before seeing Maran—he thinks about telling him.
He’s never done that before. Telling someone. There was no avoiding it when he was younger. People would just know. No matter what, people could look at him and sigh and go Oh, that’s Jon’s kid. Yeah. He’s up to no good; that’s why he gets hit. But when it stopped being obvious—because he moved from New York, because he stopped having black eyes, or a permanently blood crusted nose—he realized, no one would ever know. Unless he told them.
So he didn’t. So Ben just didn’t. Anyone. Ever.
He’s worrying a fingernail under his canine tooth when Maran’s body bumps into him. Ben has to blink a few times to remember where he is. On a couch, in Benji’s apartment—not his own, for once, but his place was closer to the University—underneath a blanket. Bowl of popcorn on his lap, arm slung around his boyfriend’s shoulders. He blinks again, feels oddly fuzzy.
“Oh—fuckin’—Don’t go in the basement,” Maran’s cringing, body tilted toward him. One of his legs is thrown over Benny’s lap. Both of his are hooked on the coffee table in front of the TV, a socked foot poking out from under the blanket. He doesn’t really remember settling it; must have run on a really decent fucking auto pilot.
Maybe it’s the guilt of that disassociation that makes Benny want to tell Maran. Because, he doesn’t like the idea of auto piloting around him. No matter how convincing he could be. Felt wrong—felt unnecessary too. Didn’t need to do that around Maran. There’d been plenty of times before when he’d navigated around something difficult without needing to go somewhere else. Christ, it made him a hypocrite too, didn’t it? Lecturing Maran on not repressing things.
He runs a hand over Maran’s short, buzzed hair and the younger man briefly glances up.
“Movie kinda sucks, Ben,” he says, a hand groping for some of the popcorn. Benny had thrown little chocolate candies in for Maran. Because he had a wicked sweet tooth and popcorn with M&M’s was a good combo. He watches Maran’s sneaky fingers digging for a chocolate. He thinks about telling him. Thinks about pausing the movie and putting the popcorn on the table and turning to Maran and holding his shoulders. Telling him. He feels a prickling sensation behind his eyes.
The door to the apartment opens and Benji spills in with Xavier, pumpkins under each arm.
“Oi, this was my night to have the flat to myself,” Maran complains, sinking petulantly into the couch with his face pressed into Benny’s side. Xavier raises a pale hand in greeting, big smiled plastered on his wind reddened face. Benji blows air from his mouth to move a black curl from his face—his hair has steadily grown longer and longer since the first time they’d met. Xavier seems to unconsciously brush his hand back over Benji’s hair.
“Mar, you see that new episode of—”
“Ah, no, don’ spoil it, Xavier!”
Ben’s eyes skate to the B rated horror movie they’d slapped on. His eyes lower to the snack bowl on his lap. It’d become disproportionately all popcorn, no M&M’s as Maran had snacked.
Another time.
—
“Th-This is just an American tradition,” Benny explains, standing outside the Spirit Halloween with a wide, sinister grin. “Legend says that—that a store closes and months later becomes a Sp-Spirit Halloween.”
“What the fuck is Spirit Halloween?” Maran laughs, a hand linking into Benny’s as he passes through the automatic doors. A large looming animatronic of a werewolf in tattered plaid greets them, long thin arms raised. “Ah,” Maran says, nodding. “Shit awful decorations store?” Benny bends and slaps the button on the ground, backing up around it and watching the poor mans American Werewolf in London jerk toward Maran.
He laughs anyway, face cracking open into his warm smile. He hops around the overpriced display. It makes Benny smile too, push his sunglasses up and into his hair to keep his blond strands tamed. He lets Maran choose where to go, a hand tangling back with his to tug him into directions. It’s warehouse sized and sprawling with comically bad Halloween decor.
For a while he can forget the memory. Or at the very least, he can push it somewhere else for the time being. Let it back in when he’s alone in his car, or when he’s staring at the carved pumpkins lining the street, or when Lark is on the phone arguing with a family member. For a while, as he watches Maran absolutely tear through a wall of costumes to find something funny, he can just stand there and enjoy Halloween.
Benny runs a hand over the plastic filled bags of costumes. He stands for a moment, looking at the WHITE TRASH DAD costume. Hilarious with it’s stained white tank top, make up to give yourself a missing tooth. Trucker hat. It came with it’s open empty beer can. Benny’s thumb lingers over the models face on the cardboard insert display. He presses the thumb harder until it indents. Beer bottle. His dad drank Rolling Rock. There’s a scar on the bottom of Benny’s left foot from stepping on a broken green shard before.
“Overpriced garbage,” Maran says, shaking his brain stem out the memory. His hand drops and he turns to face him as he holds up a hockey mask over his face. “Xavier’s probably got these, yeah? Could be Jason Vorhees.”
“Hot,” Benny replies, because he thinks he might only be able to manage one word. Maran drops the mask back into the value bin beside him and slides forward. His arms wrap firmly around Benny’s middle. He’s got exactly two inches of height on him because of his combat boots. Maran likes to sometimes exaggerate that slight height difference by spreading his feet and standing lower.
“Alright?” Maran asks, his head cocked a little, eyebrow raised.
Tell him, he thinks. Even in the middle of some shitty Halloween supply store. You can tell him. Get it over with. You’re going to be weird all fucking month. Just tell him. Say it. Say ‘my dad’ and finish it. Tell him.
No. Not in a fucking Spirit Halloween. Benny exhales and slides his sunglasses down and grins.
“We—We’re going to be late.”
—
Benny swings Lark up into his arms haphazardly, stumbling back and nearly colliding with Matilda. The runner clings around his neck, his leg almost bent at a severely wrong angle as he slowly makes his way out of the trunk of the mustang. When he lands and untangles, he puts hands to his knees and exhales slowly.
“That fucking sucked,” Lark says, glancing up at Benny.
“Your—Your idea.”
Maran pops his head from the car window, half dangling out of it. A blanket is sprawled over his shoulders and he’s grinning with all his pretty teeth.
“Saved us like twenty bucks,” Lark groans, straightening. As his midriff is revealed, Matilda’s hands sneak up under his shirt and over his sides, her own grin pouty and pretty. Lark leans back in her embrace, stretching his arms above his head and groaning even louder. Theatrical. “Maran didn’t get caught, either?”
“Stayed under the—the blanket like a good b-boy,” Benny teases. Maran gives him two thumbs up before springing back into the car. Xavier’s large, fucked up truck slowly maneuvers into the spot beside them. It’s bed points toward the giant projector, where intermission commercials play. A hot dog chases a mustard packet. FRESH HOT SNACKS AT THE CONCESSION STAND! Ben listens to the truck’s rumbling engine cut off and watches Xavier fall out the drivers side in his lithe, strange way.
“Lark hide in the trunk to save himself money?”
“Fuck you,” Lark shouts, walking hand in hand with Matilda to where she’d set up lawn chairs for them. There’s a few more for more of their friends who slowly exit cars to join. Benny looks away from the slow meandering crowd, his eyes on Xavier’s converses until they rise up. In the dark, Xavier practically glows, because he’s so pale. His red hair is disheveled, like hands had been running through it.
“You wanna lay in the bed with us?” Xavier throws a thumb over his shoulder. Benji stands in it, arranging blankets and pillows. He’s wearing one of Xavier’s hoodies. He raises a hand in moderate greeting.
“We’re going to—to sit in the car.”
When he joins Maran back inside the mustang, both seats are already jerked back as far as they can go. It makes him snort as he climbs back into the drivers side. He puts a hand under the steering wheel, presses a button and easily yanks it off. He tosses it into the back to join the snacks they’d brought. Maran leans in, almost immediately, a hand slipping behind Benny’s neck.
For a moment, they kiss, in the relative comfort and moderate privacy of the car. Their friends gathered out in lawn chairs in front of them, waiting for the terrible movie to begin. For a moment, he’s enjoying Halloween. His hand is soothing down Maran’s chest and then dipping under his shirt to feel his warm skin. Their lips part just barely and it makes Maran drive forward, chase with tongue like he always does. It makes Benny grin into the kiss. He flattens that hand up on Maran’s chest and slowly pushes him back into the seat.
“Going to m-miss the m-mo—movie, Maran.”
“Jokes, yeah?” Maran laughs, slumping back. One of his legs is propped up, bent so he can rest his chin on his knee. He’s smiling at Benny, one of his hands reaching to touch him again. “Not really interested in the movie.”
Again, he’s absolutely struck with the desire to fucking tell him. Now, of all times. When it would ruin everything. Ruin this moment.
The opening credits roll and darken everything. The cinematic lights flicker over Maran, making him look surreal. Beautiful. The radio in his car isn’t connected, so they can’t hear the movie—it’s just silence mingled with the sound of them breathing. Benny has to swallow and exhale to keep himself level headed, to keep his heart rate moderately normal. He watches the entire time Maran crawls over the center console. He wants to tell him why he hates Halloween. But, there’s never going to be a good time, because, he doesn’t really hate Halloween with Maran there.
It’s been fun. Nice. Normal. The way Halloweens are meant to be. Friends watching a drive in movie, shitty truck beside them shaking as Xavier laughs too loud, too obviously wrestling Benji around in the bed of it. Maran’s knees coming to rest on either side of his hips, his mouth finding him in the dark.
—
So there will never be a good time.
“Come outside with me,” Benny tells Maran, lips close to his ear, bent over at the waist while the other man sits. There’s newspaper spread out across the table, pumpkin guts turning it oily looking. Matilda and Mouse look up at him but then quickly continue with their own pumpkins, heads bent together to snicker about their designs. Maran taps the carving knife on his abomination a few times and then stands.
It’s getting chilly again, but it cools Benny’s burning face as he stands on the pleasant balcony. He yanks the inside curtains closed to give them privacy and leans against the railing that overlooks the little neighborhood across from Benji’s place. It’s a short walk to the University, a little farther to their favorite coffee shop. Down the road and to the left is a playground where Benny had snuck Maran to so they could make out inside one of the plastic tunnels. Play on the swings. Push Maran until he almost went fully around and they fell on the wood chips and laughed and wrestled and kissed.
He wants a cigarette, so his shaky hands find the pack in his back pocket. It’s crumpled, no doubt one of them snapped in half with the carelessness. Do you know how fucking expensive these are? His fathers voice is a bullet in his skull, bouncing off calcium. Stealin’ my fucking cigarettes like you pay rent? I oughta make you fuckin’ eat it.
Maran’s hand folds over his.
“Ben,” he says, brows pulled in. “You good?”
“No,” Benny answers truthfully. He sits down on the damp garden chair behind him, but Maran continues standing. Even though there is another chair, he doesn’t move toward it. He leans with his hip against the railing, on leg between Benny’s. He’s wearing shorts, even though it’s cold out; which almost makes Ben feel guilty. Like they should be back inside the warm apartment, cutting up pumpkins to look atrocious and bad. Benny slips his hand around the crux of Maran’s knee, his thumb brushing over all the little freckles he has there.
“I hate Halloween,” he says softly.
“Got the vibe,” Maran admits, smiling a little. He’s looking down at Ben, patiently, but he can see the worry needling behind those pretty brown eyes. Benny didn’t realize it would be this hard; he felt as thought it should be like ripping a bandaid off. You just say it and then it’s over. But it’s not.
“Really?” Ben laughs a little, pale eyes flickering over his boyfriend.
“Been actin’—bit off. Didn’t wanna,” Maran shrugs his shoulders. “Didn’t wanna press.”
“Fuck,” Benny rubs at his mouth a little. “Didn’t th—think I was being obvious.”
“You weren’t.” Maran presses a bit closer. There’s noise from inside the apartment. Matilda and Mouse laughing—Xavier’s loud voice joining them. His mouth goes dry at the idea of them coming out to the balcony. But there is never going to be a good fucking time. “Not to anyone else, don’t think. Just,” Maran’s hand sneaks forward and Ben’s around his knee lifts until their fingers start to lace together. “Well, I know you a bit, right?”
It makes Benny smile, browns upturned. He brings Maran’s hand toward him, rests his forehead against his knuckles. He feels close to throwing up, but starts anyway.
“I go-gotta tell you a story.”
“Alright, Ben.”
He tells it like that, forehead resting against Maran’s hand.
It starts with describing the cast on his arm. Those awful ones that keep the elbow bent, go up the bicep and down to the wrist. Luckily wasn’t his dominant arm. At eight years old, it had felt remarkably like being in prison. I liked baseball as a kid, he tells Maran. You can’t play one armed.
He walks it back then. Just a little, to why his arm was cast in the first place. Benny doesn’t make it graphic. He could, because he very much remembers the graphic details. The horrible snapping sound and the hour his father had waited to bring him to the hospital. Sorry, Jonny, I’m so fucking sorry. Daddy has to sober up first, okay, buddy? He leaves out quoting his father, because it’s not necessary to the story. It’s just that it lives inside his head sometimes, but it’s a ghost, an after image. Not as strong as it used to be.
So he skips talking about how bad it hurt or the fever from it, or the nurse who had tried so hard to get him to admit he hadn’t fallen off his bike. He gets into Halloween.
“My best friends mom,” Benny says, his words coming out wet. “She—She improvised a Hallo—Halloween costume for me. So—So the cast would blend in.” He looks up then, for the first time since he started talking. Maran moves immediately at that. He presses forward again, moves so he’s settling himself onto Ben’s thighs, an arm slung around his shoulder. “Was a mummy.” He feels Maran’s warm palm on his cheek, against the cold October night air. It reminds him that he needs to shave.
Benny chews at his lower lip, his eyes falling away from Maran’s.
“I wanted to be Spiderman,” he admits.
There’s a long stretch of silence then. Or, half silence. There’s the undercurrent of noise from the apartment. Music thrown on that is definitely from Xavier’s phone. Night time traffic across the street. A woman singing in an apartment a floor below, her windows thrown open. Maran’s breathing in his ear as he holds him.
Benny slides his hands up Maran’s back, curl into the fabric of his shirt. He hears that softly whispered I love you and leans his cheek against Maran’s on his shoulder. He says it back, a strong hitch in his chest almost making it impossible to get all the syllables to work together. Maran waits to hear every single one, with patience. Benny could kiss him for that. Kiss him over and over and over and over.
“I wanna do Halloween right,” he says quietly instead. His eyes wander up from Maran’s to take in the blanket of black night sky above them. They can’t see the stars from inner city like this. Just fat gray clouds that obscure the waning moon.
—
“Ow,” Benny complains.
“Oh, shut up,” Matilda mutters back, her fingers widening Benny’s eye. “Don’t blink so much.”
“D-Don’t poke me in—in the eye so much.”
“Learn how to put contacts in yourself.” When he opens his mouth to reply with something nasty and mean, she pushes the contact into his left eye. He jolts backward, blinking furiously and nearly rubbing at it immediately. Matilda catches his wrist to hold it.
“Ah, ah,” she chastises. “Don’t ruin my make up too.” Benny blinks away the furious spring of tears, cringing on the chair in the kitchen and shaking his head. When his eyes no longer feel cloudy, or sting with the foreign feeling of contacts, he glances up at her. “Are you sure you don’t want me to try and so some burns or something?” She crosses her arms over her chest, head tilted with a pout.
Benny stands from the chair, picking up the glove of fake plastic finger knives and shoving it on his hand. He reaches for the brown hat she had put on herself while getting his make up and contacts in for him and puts it on his own head. Makes her smile—that overwhelmingly pretty smile that he can’t blame Lark for falling in love with. She’d taken her time helping him instead of getting her own costume on—but the entire group would pause and wait for her.
“Wa-Wanted to be a sexy Freddy Krueger.” She adjusts his striped sweater for him and rolls her eyes.
“He was kind of hot even with the burns.” She pauses and tucks fingers to her mouth to try and stop herself from snorting with laughter. Her cheeks puff up a bit as she holds it in. “Get it? Hot.”
“Ha ha,” Benny says.
When Benji and Maran arrive, he has to actually leave the room for a minute. He stands in the kitchen again, staring at the chair only moments prior he’d just been sat in, Matilda smearing dark purple under his eyes to pronounce the black contacts that would make him look extra creepy. He feels Maran’s hand sliding over his lower back. When he tilts his chin over his shoulder, he groans loudly.
“That sh-should be illegal,” Benny comments.
“Crop tops?” Maran answers with his blindingly sweet smile. Ben turns fully then to appreciate the costume. Near exact replica of Johnny Depp’s iconic cropped sweatshirt look from before he was completely shredded and turned into gallons of blood. Maran even had slung bulky headphones around his neck to really complete the look. The light blue sweatpants sat low on his hips so Benny hiked them up a little. “Aw, Ben,” Maran laughs, bumping his body forward so they collide a bit.
“What? You—You’ll get cold.”
“Oh,” he says, nodding, pretending to accept the excuse for Benny’s possessive gesture. Maran’s arms wind up around his neck. “Hm,” he comments in a hum. “Kinda miss the blue.” Benny feels his cheeks get warm, his head turning to the side to look at the fridge and all the haphazard pictures hung up on it. Polaroids of Benji and Xavier next to a weeks old note from Lark about finals. A drawing Matilda did of a cartoon character on a stripper pole. There’s a newspaper clipping that features Ben and his lab partner in it, standing for an awkward picture.
Someone had gone and clipped out every JONATHAN in it before tacking it up.
“Happy Halloween,” Maran says softly. Benny turns back to look at him. He feels shivery. His hand cups Maran’s cheek. He wants to kiss him, but he also wants to say it back. Mean it.
“Ha—”
“Happy Halloween!” Xavier yells, bursting into the kitchen with his arms raised dramatically high. He’s clutching the ends of a cape to give himself a presence—wings, maybe. He’s smiling with all his teeth. Fake, pointed paper white fangs are stuck to his canines. Xavier blinks a few times and drops his arms.
“I’m Nosferatu.”
“He’s Dracula,” Benji corrects, coming in behind him and placing a six pack of beer on the kitchen table.
“I don’t fucking watch horror movies,” Xavier explains in an annoyed tone as Maran bursts into loud laughter. He’s leaning back with it, hands clutching Benny’s shoulders for stability as he laughs harder. Benji shoots him looks, tired, exasperated, eyes rolling up. Benny’s non-gloved hand sneaks toward the beer to unhook one from the plastic.
They end up drinking at the apartment and then going out. They form a large, roving crowd, bumping into other large moving crowds of university students enjoying the holiday. They crawl bars and bars and more bars (where Maran wins a costume content purely because the bartender can’t stop staring at him until Benny starts yanking on all the beer taps) before they end up at a food place, one in the morning. They get loud in the corner of the restaurant and leave a huge, pooled together tip.
Benny writes HAPPY HALLOWEEN on the receipt.
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Brendon: Let's do that game where we switch the letters of our first and last names around! I'll go first; Urendon Brie
Mike: Nike Maran
Nicole: Ricole Now
Dan: Pan Dawlovich
Dallon: Wallon Deekes
Jon: Won Jalker
Ryan: Ryan Ross, wait, no, this is not fair.
Spencer: Yep, I know.
#brendon urie#mike naran#nicole row#dan pawlovich#dallon weekes#jon walker#ryan ross#spencer smith#panic at the disco
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A Brief History: Narnia 627-824
The end of Edwardian Narnia brought the Age of Erstwhile, the most recent royal family of Narnia. Throughout this period of transition Narnia went through multiple highs and lows that at times left the country in possible danger.
Those whose names appear in a circular shape are the historical figures that have the most influence on our world today, or did something significant during their rule.
Edward IV (627-662) followed in his father’s footsteps of making poor monetary choices. By the 8th year of his reign, Edward IV had revoked Calormen’s ability to trade with the Seven Isles. This meant that Calormen lost their largest trading post as well as their access to crops grown on the island. By 635, Calormens were ready to go to war with Narnia after years of attempting to negotiate. Edward IV however ignored the unrest with Calormen and continued to take the Calormen’s share of goods from the Seven Isles. Jenn II was appointed to the same position as her mother in 637 to diffuse the southern conflict. Eventually, Jenn II was able to convince Edward IV to give back the trade route.
Edward V, better known as “the Lord of Melancholy,” was crowned King in 662 and ruled until 693. Edward V was actually second in line to his sister Aster; however, she was killed in a hunting accident in 660. Edward V never wanted to be King and also never stopped grieving his sister’s death; during his reign he neglected most of his duties and became deeply depressed because of this. The Lord of Melancholy never married or had children. In 667 he almost wed his long time friend Lord Maran but the wedding was called off a week before it was to take place.
Jenn II’s son Jon I was a Lord at Cair during Edward V’s reign. As the next in line, Jon I was crowned King after Edward’s death in 693 and ruled until 724. Jon I started to re-establish the honor of the Narnian throne and bring stability back to the government.
Jon II (724-785) was crowned when he was around 17 and furthered his father’s efforts to bring peace to the Narnian government. In 737, Jon II defeated a group of giants that were attempting to destroy the Tree of Protection. The purpose for this attack was unknown at the time, it is now suspected that this may have been the first attempt of overthrowing the Narnian government. Which, as we know, succeeded in 900.
Jon III was crowned in 785 and ruled until 824. In the first year of his reign on a midnight walk along the beach at Cair, Jon III was met with the presence of a star. Her name was Ariana of the Erstwhile Constellation, a constellation in the East of the night sky, meaning “a time before now.” Ariana was a known prophet (as she was a star). The exact timeline of their relationship is unknown; however, the two were married in 787. The Erstwhile Constellation have been servants of the Emperor beyond the Sea since the beginning of time, however, the members of the constellation (as do a number of other stars) do not recognize Aslan as a divine figure, unlike Narnian and Archenlandian traditions. The stars instead dedicate themselves to a personal relationship with and dedication to the Emperor beyond the Sea. Ariana followed this tradition. Together, Jon and Ariana brought forth a prosperous and happy time in Narnia. They also began the “Age of Erstwhile,” the years in which a descendant of the two ruled over Narnia.
Chapters of a Brief History
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Big Dreams, Big Voices Boost 'Paint Your Wagon' Makeover at The Muny
Big Dreams, Big Voices Boost ‘Paint Your Wagon’ Makeover at The Muny
By Lynn Venhaus Managing Editor Eureka! A robust makeover to an unremarkable ‘50s era musical “Paint Your Wagon” has hit pay dirt on the Muny stage.
Those behind the new edition have dreamed as big as the characters in this fresh look at the American identity, those yearning for a better life who came over land and by sea, as many as 300,000 during the rough-and-tumble California Gold Rush.
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#Alan Jay Lerner#Allan K. Washington#Amy Clark#August Eriksmoen#Austin Ku#Bobby Conte Thornton#Caite Hevner#David Patridge#Frederick Loewe#Ian Eisendrath#Jason DeBord#John Lasiter#John Shivers#Jon Marans#Josh Rhodes#Kaitlyn A. Adams#Lee Wilkins#Mamie Parris#Matt Bogart#Maya Keleher#Michael James Reed#Michal Schweikardt#Mike Isaacson#Omar Lopez-Cepero#Paint Your Wagon#Preston Truman Boyd#Raymond J. Lee#Rodney Hicks#Sinai Tabak#The Muny
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Lyrics & Lyricists
Review by Brenda Repland
This week, Lyrics & Lyricists at the 92nd Street Y featured a program dedicated to the late lyricist, Yip Harburg who wrote (mostly show tunes) for more than forty composers during the 30’s and 40’s. Many of his pieces were collaborations with Harold Arlen and Burton Lane.
His lyrics often reflected the effects of the financial crash of 1929 with such songs as “Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?”
Some of his most famous songs are those written for “The Wizard of Oz” and “Finian’s Rainbow.”
Some of the highlights performed included “Happiness Is A Thing Called Joe” (which the House UnAmerican Activities panel accused defendants of using as a code for Josef Stalin!) sung beautifully here by Mikaela Bennett; “It’s Only A Paper Moon” sung by Laura Darrell who also performed a lovely “How Are Things In Glocca Morra?”
The real showstopper was “Lydia, The Tattooed Lady” by Megan Sikora which brought the house down and had the audience cheering wildly.
The evening closed with the entire company singing a melancholy yet heartfelt “Somewhere Over The Rainbow.”
Matt Kunkel, director
Paul Masse, music direct6or & orchestrator
Jon Marans, writer
Paul Masse, piano & conductor
Steve Lyon, woodwinds
Kiku Enomoto violin & viola
Laura Bontrager, cello
Lynette Wardle, harp
Kory Grossman, percussion
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The TTO Reading List
I’ve been thinking a lot about the word “inaugural” recently, for probably obvious reasons. Given recent events, I have found myself tempted to just shut down and give up on my theatrical work. “What’s the point of putting on some silly little plays,” I wondered, “when there’s real problems in the world?”
But, recently, I heard a phrase that really got me thinking. Last week, I emailed a playwright, Hansol Jung, about a play she’d written, to which she responded “I applaud your resolution during a month where the mere act of getting out of bed and into the streets seemed like an act of revolution at times.” (Such casually brilliant eloquence like this is the reason I recommend her plays, for the record.)
When dealing with oppression, despair, and pitfalls, I realized, the solution isn’t necessarily to set art aside in order to fight for things to get better. The solution can be to use art to fight for things to get better. Art has always been used to amplify marginalized voices, and amplifying marginalized voices in a public sphere is a revolutionary act, especially in times like this.
So, in order to start this revolution, it feels appropriate for the inaugural post on The Theater Offensive’s intern blog to be an incomplete, but lengthy, reading list of plays for the LGBTQ+ community. The list was compiled based on plays I’ve read, recommendations from friends and colleagues, and several online and print publications. Some of the plays on it are a bit outdated, and none are perfect, but they all literally bring queer voices to the spotlight.
So to officially inaugurate this blog, and without further ado, here are 50 important titles in queer theater. Clicking each play will bring you to a page where you can find a script/libretto. I encourage everyone who can do so to add to their acts of political revolution by reading these plays, producing these plays, sharing these plays, adding to these plays, writing your own plays, and not letting art disappear.
Christiana Programs Intern, Winter ‘17
Plays centered around queer women Body Awareness by Annie Baker Cardboard Piano by Hansol Jung Indecent by Paula Vogel The Kid Thing by Sarah Gubbins Stop Kiss by Diana Son Wolf Play by Hansol Jung
Plays centered around queer men Edith Can Shoot at Things and Hit Them by A. Rey Pamatmat Men On the Verge of a His-Panic Breakdown by Guillermo Reyes Mr. Universe by Jim Grimsley The Pride by Alexi Kaye Campbell Speech and Debate by Stephen Karam Take Me Out by Richard Greenberg The Temperamentals by Jon Marans
Plays centered around queer people of multiple genders Cloud 9 by Caryl Churchill
Plays centered around trans/nonbinary characters Ballast by Georgette Kelly Boy by Anna Ziegler Eat and You Belong to Us by MJ Kaufman Hir by Taylor Mac
Plays centered around the AIDS crisis Adam and the Experts by Victor Bumbalo Angels in America by Tony Kushner As Is by William M. Hoffman The Baltimore Waltz by Paula Vogel The Normal Heart by Larry Kramer (and its sequel, The Destiny of Me) Safe Sex by Harvey Fierstein
Not about queerness, but good plays with queer characters Boom by Peter Sinn Nachtrieb Deathtrap by Ira Levin Dry Land by Ruby Rae Spiegel* No Exit by Jean-Paul Sartre Still by Jen Silverman
Queer Musicals Bare: A Pop Opera by Jon Hartmere, Jr./Damon Intrabartolo The Color Purple by Stephen Bray/Brenda Russell/Allee Willis/Marsha Norman Falsettos by William Finn/James Lapine Fun Home by Jeanine Tesori/Lisa Kron Hedwig and the Angry Inch by Stephen Trask/John Cameron Mitchell Kinky Boots by Cyndi Lauper/Harvey Fierstein (Links to official Broadway site, as a libretto is not available online) La Cage Aux Folles by Jerry Herman/Harvey Fierstein (Based on a non-musical play by Jean Poiret) Rent by Jonathan Larson Spring Awakening by Duncan Sheik/Steven Sater (Based on a non-musical play by Frank Wedekind)
Queer “Classics” (Many of these plays may be especially outdated, but are still historically important to queer theater) Bent by Martin Sherman The Boys in the Band by Matt Crowley Captive by Edouard Bourdet Corpus Christi by Terrence McNally The Drag by Mae West Fifth of July by Lanford Wilson Find Your Way Home by John R. Hopkins The Laramie Project by Moises Kaufman Love! Valour! Compassion! by Terrence McNally Torch Song Trilogy by Harvey Fierstein
* Dry Land’s characters aren’t explicitly queer in the text, but it’s implied to the point where I would personally consider it a queer play.
#lgbt#lgbtq#lgbtquia#theater#offensive#plays#reading#books#rainbow#transgender#aids#gay#lesbian#bisexual#musicals#broadway#programs intern#response#reading list#nonbinary#boston
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Quicksand Interview: Chris Wight, playing “Uncle Peter/Uncle Paul/Ensemble”
IRT Presents Everyday Inferno Theatre Company’s QUICKSAND By Regina Robbins
IRT Theater 154 Christopher St, NYC December 1st-15th, 2018 Tickets: $5-35
“They say that if one stands on the corner of 135th street and 7th avenue long enough, one will eventually see all the people one has ever known. It’s pretty true, I guess. Everyone comes to Harlem sooner or later.”
In Regina Robbins' Quicksand, heightened theatricality, live music, and dance combine to immerse the audience in the 1920s: an era of incredible progress and unimaginable inequality. As we follow the journey of Helga Crane, a biracial woman, from the deep south, through Chicago, New York, Denmark, and back, historical figures of the period appear unexpectedly; Broadway star Al Jolson sings “April Showers” on a New York City street, W.E.B. Du Bois lectures in a lady’s bedroom, and Paul Robeson performs a scene from The Emperor Jones. Infused with the flavor of the roaring 20s, this lively production will pull you back to a past eerily similar to our present.
What about the play resonates with you most/are you most excited to share and why?
The 20s are such an inflection point for white supremacy in the US - Birth of a Nation, lynchings, and blackface, but also the seeds of change are taking hold as evidenced in part by the Harlem Renaissance. I’m hoping we capture some essence of Helga’s journey as a woman caught between many worlds and show through the lens of her journeys how the world has changed since then, and how it hasn’t.
What would your character’s Karaoke song be?
Uncle Paul is quite fond of In Bluebird Land by Valdemar Eiberg.
What do you wish the theatre had more of?
An audience beyond wealthy older white folks; a reach to audiences that could most benefit from having their worldview challenged and expanded.
CHRIS WIGHT (Uncle Peter/Uncle Paul/Ensemble) just wrapped Deya Danielle Drake's Escape for FringeNYC. He is a long-time Artist Member of The Ensemble Studio Theatre and 'Friend' of Flux Theatre Ensemble; there and elsewhere he's appeared in new works by David Ives, Lucy Thurber, Liz Duffy Adams, Jen Silverman, Rachel Bonds, Tennessee Williams (in the premier of Spring Storm with Peter Sarsgaard), Cassandra Medley, Cherie Vogelstein (36DD with Judy Gold), David Lindsay Abaire (Crazy Eights opposite Rosie Perez), Sheri Wilner, Olivia Dufault, Jon Marans, Kathleen McGhee-Anderson, Arthur Giron, Jeffrey Sweet, David Zelnick, Adam Szymkowicz, Cheryl L. Davis, Julie Selbo, Joshua Conkel, Amanda Keating, Christina Quintana, J. Holtham, John Augustine, Robert Simonson, Michael Louis Wells, Ryan Dowler, Maria McCarthy and many other acclaimed writers. Recent films include the independent features Dreamelia and The Motion of the Sun, also shorts Character Assassins (opposite June Squibb), Amy Staats' Mary & Louise, etc. www.chriswight.net
#EITC2018#Quicksand#home#goinghome#EverydayInferno#IndieTheatre#NYCTheatre#WomenInTheatre#ChangeTheStage#nella larsen
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Monsterland streaming
Nationalité : Américain Genre : Fantastique, Thriller, Epouvante-horreur Date de sortie : 2017-01-03 Avec : Erik Gardner, Andrew Kasch, Josh LaCasse, Patrick Longstreth, Sander Maran, Peter McCoubrey, Réalisateur : Jack Fields,
Bienvenue à Monsterland ! Un lieu terrifiant où les bêtes sauvages, les créatures carnivores et abominations grotesques sont la nouvelle normalité, et la race humaine est maintenant en bas de la chaîne alimentaire. Anthologie de 9 courts-métrages sur le thème des monstres. ACTEURSSteven Barton, Jon Condit, Kaye Marie DeLancey…
from Film en Streaming VF http://filmistreaming.org/monsterland-streaming/
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Monsterland streaming
Nationalités : Américain Genre : Epouvante-horreur,Fantastique,Thriller Date de sortie : 2016-06-07 De : Andrew Kasch, Corey Norman, Erik Gardner, Jack Fields, John Skipp, Josh LaCasse, Patrick Longstreth, Peter McCoubrey, Sander Maran Avec : Jon Condit, Kaye Marie DeLancey, Steven Barton
Bienvenue à Monsterland ! international organisation stead terrifiant où les bêtes sauvages, les créatures carnivores et abominations grotesques sont la nouvelle normalité, et la race humaine Eastern Standard Time maintenant linear unit bas DE la chaîne alimentaire. Anthologie DE nine courts-métrages Sur autoimmune disorder thème des monstres.
from Streaming VF http://www.streamovf.org/monsterland-streaming/
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With All Eyes On Georgia, You May Have Missed This Even Closer Race
Democrats woke up to disappointment on Wednesday after Republicans claimed victory in the closely watched special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district. In the most expensive House race of all time, the party had pinned its hopes on Jon Ossoff being able capitalize on national discontent with President Donald Trump and the Republican-led Congress.
Ossoff ultimately lost to Karen Handel by nearly 10,000 votes and a tight 3.8-point margin. But another race that got relatively little attention― and millions less in funding― turned out to be even closer.
The special election in South Carolina’s 5th Congressional District, between Democrat Archie Parnell and Republican Ralph Norman, was held to replace Mick Mulvaney, who became the White House’s budget director in February. As the votes were counted in the largely rural district, Parnell lost by just a 3.2-point margin in an area Mulvaney had won by more than 20 points just last year.
Democrats in the state had said if Parnell pulled off what they described as a major upset, the special election could have paved the way for “a massive domino effect” in the state. South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Trav Robertson told HuffPost’s Daniel Marans that, “all it takes is one race.”
“Whether it is a state legislative seat or whether it is a House district ― that changes, or starts to change, the psychology of the Democratic Party in this state, our activists, as well as the independent voters,” he said.
Parnell’s ability to whittle away a heft chunk of support from the GOP in an election with notably lower turnout has pundits saying that Republicans, despite their Tuesday wins, are still in serious trouble.
Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said on Twitter that the results were “about as badly as Republicans could possibly perform in special elections without losing one.”
Handel’s 3.8 percent margin was razor-thin compared to her predecessor Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, who won his last race there by a whopping 23 percent.
This is about as badly as Republicans could possibly perform in special elections without losing one. It's still bodes poorly for GOP. https://t.co/9Kwf3sSLYr
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 21, 2017
Worth remembering that the two seats tonight that are both running close were won by GOP candidates 7 months ago by 23.4 and 20.5 points.
— Philip Bump (@pbump) June 21, 2017
Wasserman noted that the lack of attention on the South Carolina race may have actually helped Parnell, who likely flew under the radar nationally. Ossoff, after nearly winning in the district’s April primary, suffered from a barrage of media coverage and attack ads that may have compelled more Republicans to the polls.
By the way, 259k votes were cast in #GA06 vs. 89k in #SC05. The more DNC/DCCC/media attention for Parnell, the *worse* he would've done. https://t.co/ty27MudnBq
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 21, 2017
Tuesday’s losses were sure to unsettle some in the Democratic Party, which has largely failed to muster support to unseat Republican politicians, despite Trump’s unpopularity.
But other politicos pointed out that both parties have recovered from tough special election losses to win a bevy of seats in future general elections.
Nobody likes losing. But in 06, Dems lost two competitive specials before gaining 30 seats. In 10, GOP lost 3 before picking up 63. Onward.
— Alixandria Lapp (@AliLapp) June 21, 2017
We lost PA-12 special in spring 2010. Tough loss and media said GOP was dead. Went on to win 63 seats six months later. #ThingsChange
— Ken Spain (@Ken_Spain) June 21, 2017
“This is not the outcome any of us were hoping for,” Ossoff said after the election. “But this is the beginning of something much bigger than us.”
Proud of @archie4congress for a hard fought campaign in deep red #SC05. With @dccc support, made huge gains compared to previous Dems.
— DCCC (@dccc) June 21, 2017
-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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The Stonewall Book Award
The Stonewall Book Award is a set of three literary awards that annually recognize "exceptional merit relating to the gay/lesbian/bisexual/transgender experience" in English-language books published in the U.S. There are three categories in which a book can win, and multiple winners are selected for each category every year. The categories include “The Stonewall Honor Books in Literature”, “Stonewall Honor Books in Non-Fiction”, and “Stonewall Honor Books in Children’s and Young Adult Literature”.
Winners of the Stonewall Book Award in Children and Young Adult Literature:
-Unbecoming by Jenny Downham (2017)
-Sex is a Funny Word by Cory Silverberg (2016)
-I’ll Give You the Sun by Jandy Nelson (2015)
-A Strange and Separate People by Jon Marans (2014)
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Here's What The Latest Polls Say About The Airstrikes In Syria
New surveys find initial support for last week’s airstrikes in Syria, but with little appetite for more. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie sets a dubious national record. And advocates are worried about the 2020 Census. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, April 11, 2017.
MOST POLLS SHOW NARROW MAJORITY SUPPORTING TRUMP’S ACTIONS - Four new surveys released since President Trump ordered air strikes last week find support hovering between 50 and 57 percent. HuffPollster: “[About half] of Americans support President Donald Trump’s missile strikes against Syria in retaliation for the Syrian government’s reported use of chemicals weapons on its citizens, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey. The poll also found some Americans concerned about Trump’s preparation for the attack and his failure to seek congressional authorization. Fifty-one percent of Americans say they support Trump’s decision to order strikes, with 32 percent opposed, and 17 percent uncertain….Just one-third of the public thinks the strikes will be even somewhat likely to deter the use of chemical weapons, with 46 percent believing they’re somewhat unlikely or very unlikely to have any such effect…. [R]espondents were asked near the beginning of the survey whether they knew if the U.S. had conducted strikes in Syria in the past six months. While 57 percent said that it had, 19 percent said there hadn’t been any such strikes, and 24 percent that they weren’t sure….Overall, the public approves of Trump’s handling of Syria by a modest 4-point margin, 41 percent to 37 percent ― significantly better than his overall approval rating. But other questions reveal wariness about the president’s decision-making process. Americans say, 42 percent to 32 percent, that Trump did not plan carefully enough before ordering the strikes. They also say, 44 percent to 22 percent, that his actions were not consistent with his previous statements about Syria.” [HuffPost]
CBS News: “Fifty-seven percent of Americans approve of the airstrike against Syrian military targets ― calling immoral the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons that led to the strike ― but most are leery of any military involvement beyond airstrikes, a CBS News poll shows.” [CBS]
Gallup: “Americans’ support for the military strikes against Syria last week is historically low compared with reactions to previous U.S. military actions. Fifty percent of Americans approve of the missile airstrikes, while 41% disapprove. Ten percent have no opinion.” [Gallup]
Washington Post/ABC News: “Americans narrowly support missile strikes ordered by President Trump last week in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack in Syria, even as most oppose additional military efforts to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. By 51 to 40 percent, more support than oppose the missile strikes launched early Friday on the Shayrat air base in Syria, with opinions dividing sharply along partisan lines.” [WashPost]
Will the strikes help Trump’s approval rating? - Harry Enten: “Most foreign policy entanglements do not result in a ‘rally around the flag’ event — when a president’s popularity jumps because Americans rally behind their commander-in-chief. That’s according to a 2001 study by William Baker of the Arkansas School for Mathematics and Sciences and John Oneal of the University of Alabama. Their study found that only 39 percent of U.S. military interventions from 1933 to 1993 resulted in a rise in the president’s approval rating. Still, 39 percent is a sizable minority of the time. So, will President Trump’s order to launch missiles at a Syrian airfield be one of them?...Americans tend to react with greater enthusiasm when there is bipartisan support for an intervention….Americans tend to give the president a boost when he’s acting against a major power…. Americans seem to respond more positively when the U.N. Security Council gives its approval to a foreign endeavor….Americans are more likely to warm toward the president when there are revisionist goals at stake….Americans are more likely to rally behind a president at the beginning of his presidency.” HuffPost Pollster’s aggregate currently puts Trump’s approval rating at an average net -12, little changed from -13 at the beginning of the month. [538, Trump approval chart]
CHRIS CHRISTIE IS THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNOR IN THE U.S. - Morning Consult: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had a tough 2016, and this year isn’t starting off any better for him: He’s now the most unpopular governor in the country, according to the new Morning Consult Governor Approval rankings. More than 85,000 registered voters across America evaluated the job performance of their governors from from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest rankings….Just 25 percent of New Jerseyans approve of their Republican governor, who continues to be dogged by the “Bridgegate” scandal. Seventy-one percent disapprove of Christie, who endorsed Donald Trump for president after dropping out of the GOP’s presidential primary in early 2016. The two most popular governors are Republicans in traditionally blue states: Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Both governors have reputations as shrewd, bipartisan dealmakers who value results over party purity, and their constituents seem to appreciate that style. Three-fourths (75 percent) of Bay Staters approve of Baker, while 17 percent disapprove. In Maryland, 73 percent approve of Hogan, and 16 percent disapprove.” [Morning Consult]
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders holds his place as the most popular Senator - Morning Consult: “Three-quarters (75 percent) of Vermonters approve of the liberal firebrand who finished as runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, compared with 21 percent who disapprove. However, Sanders’ elevation to national prominence does appear to have compromised his standing among some of his constituents. His approval was down 12 points (from 87 percent) compared with his numbers in September, while his disapproval was up 9 points (from 12 percent).” [Morning Consult]
THE 2020 CENSUS COULD BE HURT BY TRUMP’S RHETORIC - Danny Vinik: “The first day of this month marked three years until Census Day: April 1, 2020. Though it may sound like one of the driest bureaucratic responsibilities of the federal government, the census has crucial implications for national politics—and requires years of planning, hundreds of thousands of new employees and even a marketing campaign to ensure the broadest possible snapshot of the American population. Already, Congress’ inability to agree on a full-year funding measure for fiscal 2017 has forced the Census Bureau to cancel multiple field tests and delay opening three field offices….And more broadly, the Trump administration’s hard-line rhetoric and executive orders cracking down on undocumented immigrants may already be creating a major new risk for the census, making members of minority and immigrant communities less likely to respond. ‘If you imagine that the federal government is asking for personal information and you feel that the federal government is hostile and that if you were to answer this, perhaps they would use this against you,’ said Terry Ao Minnis, director of the census and voting programs at Asian Americans Advancing Justice. ‘That, of course, will make people less inclined to participate.’” [Politico] COOK POLITICAL CHANGES RACE RATINGS FOR TWO SPECIAL ELECTIONS - Dave Wasserman on the KS-04 and GA-06 races: “In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of carrying a seat President Trump won by 27 points last November. Although GOP state Treasurer Ron Estes remains the favorite heading into Election Day, we are shifting our rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican….There is a real chance Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is dramatically outspending the rest of the field while the main GOP contenders turn on each other, could hit 50 percent on April 18 and avoid a runoff. As such, we are moving GA-06 to Toss Up.” [Cook, New PVI ratings]
Visualizing Democrats’ backlash against Trump: Alissa Scheller and Daniel Marans: “President Donald Trump’s election has sparked an enormous groundswell of activism from rank-and-file voters angry about his policies. Political analysts have wondered whether Democrats can turn this wave of progressive enthusiasm into concrete electoral gains in the 2018 midterms. One way to test that: special elections to fill empty state legislature and congressional seats….The Huffington Post has created a visualization comparing Democrats’ margins in each special election held so far this year to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin against Trump in the same district last fall. We’ll be updating this resource as more races take place.” [HuffPost]
FEW SEE MUCH PROGRESS IN ‘DRAINING THE SWAMP’ - HuffPollster, on a HuffPost/YouGov survey: “Fifty-two percent say that Trump has done ‘not very well’ or ‘not at all well’ at upholding his promise to “drain the swamp of government corruption,” with only 30 percent saying he’s done even somewhat well. Just 6 percent think he’s done ‘very well’ at fulfilling that pledge….Even after several months as the nation’s top-ranking elected official, Trump still isn’t seen as a political insider. Sixty-nine percent of Americans still consider him to be more of an outsider, with just 12 percent saying he’s part of the establishment.” [HuffPost]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this update every Tuesday and Friday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click “sign up.” That’s all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Gallup tests support for 15 of President Trump’s proposals and actions. [Gallup]
-Kathy Frankovic notes increased GOP support for some provisions of Obamacare. [YouGov]
-Nelson Schwartz looks at the way partisanship helps to drive views of the economy. [NYT]
-Perry Bacon Jr. tallies support in the Senate for Trump’s Syria air strikes. [538]
-Aaron Blake argues that gerrymandering gets too much blame for polarization. [WashPost]
-Michael Lipka and David McClendon predict that the religiously unaffiliated share of the world’s population will decline.[Pew]
-John Gramlich and Kristen Bialik write that federal law enforcement agencies are making more arrests for immigration-related offenses than they were 10 years ago. [Pew]
-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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Here's What The Latest Polls Say About The Airstrikes In Syria
New surveys find initial support for last week’s airstrikes in Syria, but with little appetite for more. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie sets a dubious national record. And advocates are worried about the 2020 Census. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, April 11, 2017.
MOST POLLS SHOW NARROW MAJORITY SUPPORTING TRUMP’S ACTIONS - Four new surveys released since President Trump ordered air strikes last week find support hovering between 50 and 57 percent. HuffPollster: “[About half] of Americans support President Donald Trump’s missile strikes against Syria in retaliation for the Syrian government’s reported use of chemicals weapons on its citizens, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey. The poll also found some Americans concerned about Trump’s preparation for the attack and his failure to seek congressional authorization. Fifty-one percent of Americans say they support Trump’s decision to order strikes, with 32 percent opposed, and 17 percent uncertain….Just one-third of the public thinks the strikes will be even somewhat likely to deter the use of chemical weapons, with 46 percent believing they’re somewhat unlikely or very unlikely to have any such effect…. [R]espondents were asked near the beginning of the survey whether they knew if the U.S. had conducted strikes in Syria in the past six months. While 57 percent said that it had, 19 percent said there hadn’t been any such strikes, and 24 percent that they weren’t sure….Overall, the public approves of Trump’s handling of Syria by a modest 4-point margin, 41 percent to 37 percent ― significantly better than his overall approval rating. But other questions reveal wariness about the president’s decision-making process. Americans say, 42 percent to 32 percent, that Trump did not plan carefully enough before ordering the strikes. They also say, 44 percent to 22 percent, that his actions were not consistent with his previous statements about Syria.” [HuffPost]
CBS News: “Fifty-seven percent of Americans approve of the airstrike against Syrian military targets ― calling immoral the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons that led to the strike ― but most are leery of any military involvement beyond airstrikes, a CBS News poll shows.” [CBS]
Gallup: “Americans’ support for the military strikes against Syria last week is historically low compared with reactions to previous U.S. military actions. Fifty percent of Americans approve of the missile airstrikes, while 41% disapprove. Ten percent have no opinion.” [Gallup]
Washington Post/ABC News: “Americans narrowly support missile strikes ordered by President Trump last week in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack in Syria, even as most oppose additional military efforts to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. By 51 to 40 percent, more support than oppose the missile strikes launched early Friday on the Shayrat air base in Syria, with opinions dividing sharply along partisan lines.” [WashPost]
Will the strikes help Trump’s approval rating? - Harry Enten: “Most foreign policy entanglements do not result in a ‘rally around the flag’ event — when a president’s popularity jumps because Americans rally behind their commander-in-chief. That’s according to a 2001 study by William Baker of the Arkansas School for Mathematics and Sciences and John Oneal of the University of Alabama. Their study found that only 39 percent of U.S. military interventions from 1933 to 1993 resulted in a rise in the president’s approval rating. Still, 39 percent is a sizable minority of the time. So, will President Trump’s order to launch missiles at a Syrian airfield be one of them?...Americans tend to react with greater enthusiasm when there is bipartisan support for an intervention….Americans tend to give the president a boost when he’s acting against a major power…. Americans seem to respond more positively when the U.N. Security Council gives its approval to a foreign endeavor….Americans are more likely to warm toward the president when there are revisionist goals at stake….Americans are more likely to rally behind a president at the beginning of his presidency.” HuffPost Pollster’s aggregate currently puts Trump’s approval rating at an average net -12, little changed from -13 at the beginning of the month. [538, Trump approval chart]
CHRIS CHRISTIE IS THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNOR IN THE U.S. - Morning Consult: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had a tough 2016, and this year isn’t starting off any better for him: He’s now the most unpopular governor in the country, according to the new Morning Consult Governor Approval rankings. More than 85,000 registered voters across America evaluated the job performance of their governors from from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest rankings….Just 25 percent of New Jerseyans approve of their Republican governor, who continues to be dogged by the “Bridgegate” scandal. Seventy-one percent disapprove of Christie, who endorsed Donald Trump for president after dropping out of the GOP’s presidential primary in early 2016. The two most popular governors are Republicans in traditionally blue states: Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Both governors have reputations as shrewd, bipartisan dealmakers who value results over party purity, and their constituents seem to appreciate that style. Three-fourths (75 percent) of Bay Staters approve of Baker, while 17 percent disapprove. In Maryland, 73 percent approve of Hogan, and 16 percent disapprove.” [Morning Consult]
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders holds his place as the most popular Senator - Morning Consult: “Three-quarters (75 percent) of Vermonters approve of the liberal firebrand who finished as runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, compared with 21 percent who disapprove. However, Sanders’ elevation to national prominence does appear to have compromised his standing among some of his constituents. His approval was down 12 points (from 87 percent) compared with his numbers in September, while his disapproval was up 9 points (from 12 percent).” [Morning Consult]
THE 2020 CENSUS COULD BE HURT BY TRUMP’S RHETORIC - Danny Vinik: “The first day of this month marked three years until Census Day: April 1, 2020. Though it may sound like one of the driest bureaucratic responsibilities of the federal government, the census has crucial implications for national politics—and requires years of planning, hundreds of thousands of new employees and even a marketing campaign to ensure the broadest possible snapshot of the American population. Already, Congress’ inability to agree on a full-year funding measure for fiscal 2017 has forced the Census Bureau to cancel multiple field tests and delay opening three field offices….And more broadly, the Trump administration’s hard-line rhetoric and executive orders cracking down on undocumented immigrants may already be creating a major new risk for the census, making members of minority and immigrant communities less likely to respond. ‘If you imagine that the federal government is asking for personal information and you feel that the federal government is hostile and that if you were to answer this, perhaps they would use this against you,’ said Terry Ao Minnis, director of the census and voting programs at Asian Americans Advancing Justice. ‘That, of course, will make people less inclined to participate.’” [Politico] COOK POLITICAL CHANGES RACE RATINGS FOR TWO SPECIAL ELECTIONS - Dave Wasserman on the KS-04 and GA-06 races: “In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of carrying a seat President Trump won by 27 points last November. Although GOP state Treasurer Ron Estes remains the favorite heading into Election Day, we are shifting our rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican….There is a real chance Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is dramatically outspending the rest of the field while the main GOP contenders turn on each other, could hit 50 percent on April 18 and avoid a runoff. As such, we are moving GA-06 to Toss Up.” [Cook, New PVI ratings]
Visualizing Democrats’ backlash against Trump: Alissa Scheller and Daniel Marans: “President Donald Trump’s election has sparked an enormous groundswell of activism from rank-and-file voters angry about his policies. Political analysts have wondered whether Democrats can turn this wave of progressive enthusiasm into concrete electoral gains in the 2018 midterms. One way to test that: special elections to fill empty state legislature and congressional seats….The Huffington Post has created a visualization comparing Democrats’ margins in each special election held so far this year to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin against Trump in the same district last fall. We’ll be updating this resource as more races take place.” [HuffPost]
FEW SEE MUCH PROGRESS IN ‘DRAINING THE SWAMP’ - HuffPollster, on a HuffPost/YouGov survey: “Fifty-two percent say that Trump has done ‘not very well’ or ‘not at all well’ at upholding his promise to “drain the swamp of government corruption,” with only 30 percent saying he’s done even somewhat well. Just 6 percent think he’s done ‘very well’ at fulfilling that pledge….Even after several months as the nation’s top-ranking elected official, Trump still isn’t seen as a political insider. Sixty-nine percent of Americans still consider him to be more of an outsider, with just 12 percent saying he’s part of the establishment.” [HuffPost]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this update every Tuesday and Friday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click “sign up.” That’s all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Gallup tests support for 15 of President Trump’s proposals and actions. [Gallup]
-Kathy Frankovic notes increased GOP support for some provisions of Obamacare. [YouGov]
-Nelson Schwartz looks at the way partisanship helps to drive views of the economy. [NYT]
-Perry Bacon Jr. tallies support in the Senate for Trump’s Syria air strikes. [538]
-Aaron Blake argues that gerrymandering gets too much blame for polarization. [WashPost]
-Michael Lipka and David McClendon predict that the religiously unaffiliated share of the world’s population will decline.[Pew]
-John Gramlich and Kristen Bialik write that federal law enforcement agencies are making more arrests for immigration-related offenses than they were 10 years ago. [Pew]
-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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Here's What The Latest Polls Say About The Airstrikes In Syria
New surveys find initial support for last week’s airstrikes in Syria, but with little appetite for more. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie sets a dubious national record. And advocates are worried about the 2020 Census. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, April 11, 2017.
MOST POLLS SHOW NARROW MAJORITY SUPPORTING TRUMP’S ACTIONS - Four new surveys released since President Trump ordered air strikes last week find support hovering between 50 and 57 percent. HuffPollster: “[About half] of Americans support President Donald Trump’s missile strikes against Syria in retaliation for the Syrian government’s reported use of chemicals weapons on its citizens, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey. The poll also found some Americans concerned about Trump’s preparation for the attack and his failure to seek congressional authorization. Fifty-one percent of Americans say they support Trump’s decision to order strikes, with 32 percent opposed, and 17 percent uncertain….Just one-third of the public thinks the strikes will be even somewhat likely to deter the use of chemical weapons, with 46 percent believing they’re somewhat unlikely or very unlikely to have any such effect…. [R]espondents were asked near the beginning of the survey whether they knew if the U.S. had conducted strikes in Syria in the past six months. While 57 percent said that it had, 19 percent said there hadn’t been any such strikes, and 24 percent that they weren’t sure….Overall, the public approves of Trump’s handling of Syria by a modest 4-point margin, 41 percent to 37 percent ― significantly better than his overall approval rating. But other questions reveal wariness about the president’s decision-making process. Americans say, 42 percent to 32 percent, that Trump did not plan carefully enough before ordering the strikes. They also say, 44 percent to 22 percent, that his actions were not consistent with his previous statements about Syria.” [HuffPost]
CBS News: “Fifty-seven percent of Americans approve of the airstrike against Syrian military targets ― calling immoral the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons that led to the strike ― but most are leery of any military involvement beyond airstrikes, a CBS News poll shows.” [CBS]
Gallup: “Americans’ support for the military strikes against Syria last week is historically low compared with reactions to previous U.S. military actions. Fifty percent of Americans approve of the missile airstrikes, while 41% disapprove. Ten percent have no opinion.” [Gallup]
Washington Post/ABC News: “Americans narrowly support missile strikes ordered by President Trump last week in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack in Syria, even as most oppose additional military efforts to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. By 51 to 40 percent, more support than oppose the missile strikes launched early Friday on the Shayrat air base in Syria, with opinions dividing sharply along partisan lines.” [WashPost]
Will the strikes help Trump’s approval rating? - Harry Enten: “Most foreign policy entanglements do not result in a ‘rally around the flag’ event — when a president’s popularity jumps because Americans rally behind their commander-in-chief. That’s according to a 2001 study by William Baker of the Arkansas School for Mathematics and Sciences and John Oneal of the University of Alabama. Their study found that only 39 percent of U.S. military interventions from 1933 to 1993 resulted in a rise in the president’s approval rating. Still, 39 percent is a sizable minority of the time. So, will President Trump’s order to launch missiles at a Syrian airfield be one of them?...Americans tend to react with greater enthusiasm when there is bipartisan support for an intervention….Americans tend to give the president a boost when he’s acting against a major power…. Americans seem to respond more positively when the U.N. Security Council gives its approval to a foreign endeavor….Americans are more likely to warm toward the president when there are revisionist goals at stake….Americans are more likely to rally behind a president at the beginning of his presidency.” HuffPost Pollster’s aggregate currently puts Trump’s approval rating at an average net -12, little changed from -13 at the beginning of the month. [538, Trump approval chart]
CHRIS CHRISTIE IS THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNOR IN THE U.S. - Morning Consult: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had a tough 2016, and this year isn’t starting off any better for him: He’s now the most unpopular governor in the country, according to the new Morning Consult Governor Approval rankings. More than 85,000 registered voters across America evaluated the job performance of their governors from from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest rankings….Just 25 percent of New Jerseyans approve of their Republican governor, who continues to be dogged by the “Bridgegate” scandal. Seventy-one percent disapprove of Christie, who endorsed Donald Trump for president after dropping out of the GOP’s presidential primary in early 2016. The two most popular governors are Republicans in traditionally blue states: Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Both governors have reputations as shrewd, bipartisan dealmakers who value results over party purity, and their constituents seem to appreciate that style. Three-fourths (75 percent) of Bay Staters approve of Baker, while 17 percent disapprove. In Maryland, 73 percent approve of Hogan, and 16 percent disapprove.” [Morning Consult]
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders holds his place as the most popular Senator - Morning Consult: “Three-quarters (75 percent) of Vermonters approve of the liberal firebrand who finished as runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, compared with 21 percent who disapprove. However, Sanders’ elevation to national prominence does appear to have compromised his standing among some of his constituents. His approval was down 12 points (from 87 percent) compared with his numbers in September, while his disapproval was up 9 points (from 12 percent).” [Morning Consult]
THE 2020 CENSUS COULD BE HURT BY TRUMP’S RHETORIC - Danny Vinik: “The first day of this month marked three years until Census Day: April 1, 2020. Though it may sound like one of the driest bureaucratic responsibilities of the federal government, the census has crucial implications for national politics—and requires years of planning, hundreds of thousands of new employees and even a marketing campaign to ensure the broadest possible snapshot of the American population. Already, Congress’ inability to agree on a full-year funding measure for fiscal 2017 has forced the Census Bureau to cancel multiple field tests and delay opening three field offices….And more broadly, the Trump administration’s hard-line rhetoric and executive orders cracking down on undocumented immigrants may already be creating a major new risk for the census, making members of minority and immigrant communities less likely to respond. ‘If you imagine that the federal government is asking for personal information and you feel that the federal government is hostile and that if you were to answer this, perhaps they would use this against you,’ said Terry Ao Minnis, director of the census and voting programs at Asian Americans Advancing Justice. ‘That, of course, will make people less inclined to participate.’” [Politico] COOK POLITICAL CHANGES RACE RATINGS FOR TWO SPECIAL ELECTIONS - Dave Wasserman on the KS-04 and GA-06 races: “In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of carrying a seat President Trump won by 27 points last November. Although GOP state Treasurer Ron Estes remains the favorite heading into Election Day, we are shifting our rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican….There is a real chance Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is dramatically outspending the rest of the field while the main GOP contenders turn on each other, could hit 50 percent on April 18 and avoid a runoff. As such, we are moving GA-06 to Toss Up.” [Cook, New PVI ratings]
Visualizing Democrats’ backlash against Trump: Alissa Scheller and Daniel Marans: “President Donald Trump’s election has sparked an enormous groundswell of activism from rank-and-file voters angry about his policies. Political analysts have wondered whether Democrats can turn this wave of progressive enthusiasm into concrete electoral gains in the 2018 midterms. One way to test that: special elections to fill empty state legislature and congressional seats….The Huffington Post has created a visualization comparing Democrats’ margins in each special election held so far this year to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin against Trump in the same district last fall. We’ll be updating this resource as more races take place.” [HuffPost]
FEW SEE MUCH PROGRESS IN ‘DRAINING THE SWAMP’ - HuffPollster, on a HuffPost/YouGov survey: “Fifty-two percent say that Trump has done ‘not very well’ or ‘not at all well’ at upholding his promise to “drain the swamp of government corruption,” with only 30 percent saying he’s done even somewhat well. Just 6 percent think he’s done ‘very well’ at fulfilling that pledge….Even after several months as the nation’s top-ranking elected official, Trump still isn’t seen as a political insider. Sixty-nine percent of Americans still consider him to be more of an outsider, with just 12 percent saying he’s part of the establishment.” [HuffPost]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this update every Tuesday and Friday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click “sign up.” That’s all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Gallup tests support for 15 of President Trump’s proposals and actions. [Gallup]
-Kathy Frankovic notes increased GOP support for some provisions of Obamacare. [YouGov]
-Nelson Schwartz looks at the way partisanship helps to drive views of the economy. [NYT]
-Perry Bacon Jr. tallies support in the Senate for Trump’s Syria air strikes. [538]
-Aaron Blake argues that gerrymandering gets too much blame for polarization. [WashPost]
-Michael Lipka and David McClendon predict that the religiously unaffiliated share of the world’s population will decline.[Pew]
-John Gramlich and Kristen Bialik write that federal law enforcement agencies are making more arrests for immigration-related offenses than they were 10 years ago. [Pew]
-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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Here's What The Latest Polls Say About The Airstrikes In Syria
New surveys find initial support for last week’s airstrikes in Syria, but with little appetite for more. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie sets a dubious national record. And advocates are worried about the 2020 Census. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, April 11, 2017.
MOST POLLS SHOW NARROW MAJORITY SUPPORTING TRUMP’S ACTIONS - Four new surveys released since President Trump ordered air strikes last week find support hovering between 50 and 57 percent. HuffPollster: “[About half] of Americans support President Donald Trump’s missile strikes against Syria in retaliation for the Syrian government’s reported use of chemicals weapons on its citizens, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey. The poll also found some Americans concerned about Trump’s preparation for the attack and his failure to seek congressional authorization. Fifty-one percent of Americans say they support Trump’s decision to order strikes, with 32 percent opposed, and 17 percent uncertain….Just one-third of the public thinks the strikes will be even somewhat likely to deter the use of chemical weapons, with 46 percent believing they’re somewhat unlikely or very unlikely to have any such effect…. [R]espondents were asked near the beginning of the survey whether they knew if the U.S. had conducted strikes in Syria in the past six months. While 57 percent said that it had, 19 percent said there hadn’t been any such strikes, and 24 percent that they weren’t sure….Overall, the public approves of Trump’s handling of Syria by a modest 4-point margin, 41 percent to 37 percent ― significantly better than his overall approval rating. But other questions reveal wariness about the president’s decision-making process. Americans say, 42 percent to 32 percent, that Trump did not plan carefully enough before ordering the strikes. They also say, 44 percent to 22 percent, that his actions were not consistent with his previous statements about Syria.” [HuffPost]
CBS News: “Fifty-seven percent of Americans approve of the airstrike against Syrian military targets ― calling immoral the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons that led to the strike ― but most are leery of any military involvement beyond airstrikes, a CBS News poll shows.” [CBS]
Gallup: “Americans’ support for the military strikes against Syria last week is historically low compared with reactions to previous U.S. military actions. Fifty percent of Americans approve of the missile airstrikes, while 41% disapprove. Ten percent have no opinion.” [Gallup]
Washington Post/ABC News: “Americans narrowly support missile strikes ordered by President Trump last week in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack in Syria, even as most oppose additional military efforts to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. By 51 to 40 percent, more support than oppose the missile strikes launched early Friday on the Shayrat air base in Syria, with opinions dividing sharply along partisan lines.” [WashPost]
Will the strikes help Trump’s approval rating? - Harry Enten: “Most foreign policy entanglements do not result in a ‘rally around the flag’ event — when a president’s popularity jumps because Americans rally behind their commander-in-chief. That’s according to a 2001 study by William Baker of the Arkansas School for Mathematics and Sciences and John Oneal of the University of Alabama. Their study found that only 39 percent of U.S. military interventions from 1933 to 1993 resulted in a rise in the president’s approval rating. Still, 39 percent is a sizable minority of the time. So, will President Trump’s order to launch missiles at a Syrian airfield be one of them?...Americans tend to react with greater enthusiasm when there is bipartisan support for an intervention….Americans tend to give the president a boost when he’s acting against a major power…. Americans seem to respond more positively when the U.N. Security Council gives its approval to a foreign endeavor….Americans are more likely to warm toward the president when there are revisionist goals at stake….Americans are more likely to rally behind a president at the beginning of his presidency.” HuffPost Pollster’s aggregate currently puts Trump’s approval rating at an average net -12, little changed from -13 at the beginning of the month. [538, Trump approval chart]
CHRIS CHRISTIE IS THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNOR IN THE U.S. - Morning Consult: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had a tough 2016, and this year isn’t starting off any better for him: He’s now the most unpopular governor in the country, according to the new Morning Consult Governor Approval rankings. More than 85,000 registered voters across America evaluated the job performance of their governors from from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest rankings….Just 25 percent of New Jerseyans approve of their Republican governor, who continues to be dogged by the “Bridgegate” scandal. Seventy-one percent disapprove of Christie, who endorsed Donald Trump for president after dropping out of the GOP’s presidential primary in early 2016. The two most popular governors are Republicans in traditionally blue states: Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Both governors have reputations as shrewd, bipartisan dealmakers who value results over party purity, and their constituents seem to appreciate that style. Three-fourths (75 percent) of Bay Staters approve of Baker, while 17 percent disapprove. In Maryland, 73 percent approve of Hogan, and 16 percent disapprove.” [Morning Consult]
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders holds his place as the most popular Senator - Morning Consult: “Three-quarters (75 percent) of Vermonters approve of the liberal firebrand who finished as runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, compared with 21 percent who disapprove. However, Sanders’ elevation to national prominence does appear to have compromised his standing among some of his constituents. His approval was down 12 points (from 87 percent) compared with his numbers in September, while his disapproval was up 9 points (from 12 percent).” [Morning Consult]
THE 2020 CENSUS COULD BE HURT BY TRUMP’S RHETORIC - Danny Vinik: “The first day of this month marked three years until Census Day: April 1, 2020. Though it may sound like one of the driest bureaucratic responsibilities of the federal government, the census has crucial implications for national politics—and requires years of planning, hundreds of thousands of new employees and even a marketing campaign to ensure the broadest possible snapshot of the American population. Already, Congress’ inability to agree on a full-year funding measure for fiscal 2017 has forced the Census Bureau to cancel multiple field tests and delay opening three field offices….And more broadly, the Trump administration’s hard-line rhetoric and executive orders cracking down on undocumented immigrants may already be creating a major new risk for the census, making members of minority and immigrant communities less likely to respond. ‘If you imagine that the federal government is asking for personal information and you feel that the federal government is hostile and that if you were to answer this, perhaps they would use this against you,’ said Terry Ao Minnis, director of the census and voting programs at Asian Americans Advancing Justice. ‘That, of course, will make people less inclined to participate.’” [Politico] COOK POLITICAL CHANGES RACE RATINGS FOR TWO SPECIAL ELECTIONS - Dave Wasserman on the KS-04 and GA-06 races: “In the final hours of the special election to replace new CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Wichita, Kansas, Republicans are expressing alarm that Democrat James Thompson is within striking distance of carrying a seat President Trump won by 27 points last November. Although GOP state Treasurer Ron Estes remains the favorite heading into Election Day, we are shifting our rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican….There is a real chance Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is dramatically outspending the rest of the field while the main GOP contenders turn on each other, could hit 50 percent on April 18 and avoid a runoff. As such, we are moving GA-06 to Toss Up.” [Cook, New PVI ratings]
Visualizing Democrats’ backlash against Trump: Alissa Scheller and Daniel Marans: “President Donald Trump’s election has sparked an enormous groundswell of activism from rank-and-file voters angry about his policies. Political analysts have wondered whether Democrats can turn this wave of progressive enthusiasm into concrete electoral gains in the 2018 midterms. One way to test that: special elections to fill empty state legislature and congressional seats….The Huffington Post has created a visualization comparing Democrats’ margins in each special election held so far this year to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin against Trump in the same district last fall. We’ll be updating this resource as more races take place.” [HuffPost]
FEW SEE MUCH PROGRESS IN ‘DRAINING THE SWAMP’ - HuffPollster, on a HuffPost/YouGov survey: “Fifty-two percent say that Trump has done ‘not very well’ or ‘not at all well’ at upholding his promise to “drain the swamp of government corruption,” with only 30 percent saying he’s done even somewhat well. Just 6 percent think he’s done ‘very well’ at fulfilling that pledge….Even after several months as the nation’s top-ranking elected official, Trump still isn’t seen as a political insider. Sixty-nine percent of Americans still consider him to be more of an outsider, with just 12 percent saying he’s part of the establishment.” [HuffPost]
HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! - You can receive this update every Tuesday and Friday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and click “sign up.” That’s all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).
TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Gallup tests support for 15 of President Trump’s proposals and actions. [Gallup]
-Kathy Frankovic notes increased GOP support for some provisions of Obamacare. [YouGov]
-Nelson Schwartz looks at the way partisanship helps to drive views of the economy. [NYT]
-Perry Bacon Jr. tallies support in the Senate for Trump’s Syria air strikes. [538]
-Aaron Blake argues that gerrymandering gets too much blame for polarization. [WashPost]
-Michael Lipka and David McClendon predict that the religiously unaffiliated share of the world’s population will decline.[Pew]
-John Gramlich and Kristen Bialik write that federal law enforcement agencies are making more arrests for immigration-related offenses than they were 10 years ago. [Pew]
-- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
from DIYS http://ift.tt/2nYZBxT
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