#Jeff Asher

[dontmeantobepoliticalbut]

Misleading statements about crime and public safety are already proliferating in this election cycle. As November draws closer, misinformation is likely to intensify. That makes it even more important to take a close look at what the best and most recent crime data tells us. One major trend is becoming clear: violent crime dropped in 2021 and 2022 — and then declined again, significantly, in 2023. We’ll have to wait until the fall for final government data to confirm this trend. Until then, here’s what we know, how we know it, and what it means — drawing on both city data and the most recent information from the FBI.

CITY-LEVEL DATA SHOWS DECLINES IN VIOLENT CRIME

City-level crime reports are the best places to look for up-to-the-minute crime data. Combining enough city-level crime data can, in turn, approximate national trends. Two research teams have used this approach to give a sense of crime in 2023. Both show sharp declines in violent crime.

• Drawing on data from 38 cities across the country, the Council on Criminal Justice reported that homicide declined by 10% in 2023. It also noted declines in assaults, gun assaults, burglary, and larceny, but a sharp spike in motor vehicle thefts.

• Similarly, Jeff Asher, a researcher and expert in data on crime and public safety, studied murder data from 175 cities and found a 7% decline in murders through December 7, 2023, compared to 2022. These cities are from across the country and include jurisdictions led by Republicans and Democrats alike.

A murder decline of this magnitude would be historic; the sharpest one-year drop on record occurred in 1996 when the number of murders nationwide fell by a little more than 9% compared to 1995.

Crime trends in the largest cities tend to grab headlines and help shape our understanding of national developments. That makes careful examination of data from these cities especially important. Broadly, the news about murder trends from 2022 to 2023 is encouraging. There were 100 fewer murders in Philadelphia in 2023 compared to 2022, a decline of roughly 20%. In Baltimore, murders also declined by roughly 20%, falling below 300 for the first time since 2014. Similarly, New York City saw nearly 50 fewer homicides, a drop of roughly 11%.

Notable on their own, these declines also undercut politicized claims that crime is rising in “blue cities.” On the contrary, the data demonstrates that Democratic-led cities, which also happen to be some of the nation’s most populous, follow and in some cases lead the national trend toward decreasing violence.

Of course, this overall trend is not universal, and causes for concern remain. Just as all available police data points to a decline in murders, those same sources also indicate an increase in motor vehicle thefts. Some cities, like Washington, DC, also saw violence continue to surge in 2023. Last, but of vital importance, even with these declines, murder rates likely remain above 2019 levels nationally and in most cities.

PRELIMINARY NATIONAL DATA FROM THE FBI CONFIRMS FALLING VIOLENT CRIME

On March 18, the FBI released preliminary quarterly crime data for 2023. Intended to supplement the FBI’s annual fall report on nationwide crime trends, these quarterly reports offer an early but incomplete look at crime data from a smaller group of police agencies than represented in final annual reports. The latest release covers more than 80% of the population — a very robust sample, even if there are errors in the city-level data that should be corrected before the FBI releases final year-end data in the fall.

The broad trend matches what researchers have observed in collections of city data about crime trends between 2022 and 2023. Specifically, the FBI’s report shows remarkable declines in murder (down 13.2%), violent crime (down 5.7%), and property crime (down 4.3%). Of the seven major offenses tracked by the FBI, the report shows an increase only in motor vehicle theft (up 10.7%).

UNDERSTANDING COMMON CRITICISMS OF CRIME DATA

The available data indicates that violence, especially lethal violence, dropped in 2023. Skeptics might still point to reasons to question the apparent decline in crime. For one, crime data generally includes only offenses reported to police. Could crime reporting have dropped, and crime itself remained static? One problem with this theory is immediately evident. Murder is almost always reported to the police. And it appears to have fallen at a rapid, potentially record-setting pace in 2023.

As for crimes other than murder, we’ll have to wait until fall to test the possibility of underreporting. That’s when the National Criminal Victimization Survey (NCVS), an analysis by the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics that studies people’s experiences with nonlethal crime, will release its 2023 data. Unfortunately, data quality issues make it difficult to draw firm conclusions from the NCVS’s most recent releases.

Last, skeptics might point to the FBI’s recent transition to a new crime reporting system, which led to relatively few police agencies providing data for the bureau’s 2021 crime report, as another weak spot in recent crime data. But agency reporting has improved since 2021, and the FBI took other steps to ensure a more complete report in 2022. The next report, covering 2023, will likely mark another improvement.

• • •

Crime data is far from perfect. But the FBI’s data is improving in both quality and frequency of reporting, and independent research allows us to double-check the bureau’s work as that process continues. Putting the two pieces together, a clear picture is emerging, one that shows significant decreases in violent crime in recent years.

Rapidly changing crime trends underscore the value of having crime data that is timely and reliable. Policymakers and leaders in civil society should continue to work toward realizing that goal.

[trendynewsnow]

Significant Decrease in U.S. Murder Rates in 2023

Significant Decline in Murders Across America in 2023 In a remarkable turn of events, the year 2023 has witnessed a substantial drop in murder rates across the United States, marking the most significant one-year decrease in over fifty years. This unexpected decline is even more astounding as current trends suggest that the improvement may continue into 2024. Interestingly, this decline contrasts…

[pagodazz]

I literally don't know anymore... I'll make more saw memes eventually

[cheesec4k6]

[felxxwiw]

M3300WW

L1n3s fr0m th3 s0ng "Angel 92" by M4r3tu

[cynningly]

Hey Slenderverse People!

I made a couple of playlists for series! Two of them have all the canonical music of the series and one is just some music i think fits the vibe of the slenderverse as a whole

^this one has every song outright played on the everymanHYBRID youtube channel (it does not include the songs mentioned on Steph’s blog, unfortunately. This is because there are a fuckton of them, and I could make a whole separate playlist for CANYOUSEETHEWORDS. If someone asked me to, i probably would.)

^this one has every song played in TribeTwelve. If you’ve watched TribeTwelve, you’re probably wondering wtf this is cause there’s rarely any music in T12. Well, you’re mostly right. But all the weird distorted background nonsense? Yeah, it’s all music. So, here it is! (this one does include music outside the youtube channel because 1. the music was less recognizable than in emh where the songs fit the story, and 2. cause it was only like one song; “Blackest Eyes” by Porcupine Trees, which was mentioned in Milo’s Journal as being his favorite song and is now one of mine so you all have to hear it)

***Id also like to say that I did not find all of these songs myself. I simple googled for them and found this webpage, which not only lists the songs, but has them in order. So thanks to whoever figured that out

lastly, here’s just a fan one with a mashup of my favs that are canonically in series and some that i just think fit the vibe of amnesia, hopelessness, not knowing who you are, changing as a person for the worse, having things hunt you, being stuck in a time loop, and all that other fun stuff that comes with being in a slenderverse series

honestly i could go into a deep dive on why every single one of these songs fits, but i’ll spare you. Also i made the cover and i’m very proud of it cause it combines all my faves (the big 5 + Stan Frederick and WhisperedFaith). Also also this is still being added to pretty frequently.

hoping to make an MLAndersen0 one soon 🤞

[disshiza]

I'm sorry but I love them

[kevnoah]

EVERYNYANHYBRID!!

[burnttoast-deaddreams]

Update ;

I’m free from the wall, likely going to see if Noah or Milo is still alive.. Well as alive as either of them can get. If i can’t find Noah then i’ll ask Incendiary or Rendezvous. The trees have been getting weirder, and i have a feeling they have something to do with it.

[jeffery-emh-pregnant]

who is the father.

Ur asking the wrong question anon! Tha real question is who the mom is!:3c

~SCRINIARII

[wanda-beast-lps]

More slenderverse anime ai art

[reasonsforhope]

Double dose of articles about how crime is actually plummeting

From the UK:

"Seventy-eight per cent of people in England and Wales think that crime has gone up in the last few years, according to the latest survey. But the data on actual crime shows the exact opposite.

As of 2024, violence, burglary and car crime have been declining for 30 years and by close to 90%, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) – our best indicator of true crime levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording.

The drop in violence includes domestic violence and other violence against women. Anti-social behaviour has similarly declined. While increased fraud and computer misuse now make up half of crime, this mainly reflects how far the rates of other crimes have fallen.

All high-income countries have experienced similar trends, and there is scientific consensus that the decline in crime is a real phenomenon.

The perception gap

So why is there such a gulf between public perception and the reality of crime trends? A regular YouGov poll asks respondents for their top three concerns from a broad set of issues. Concern about crime went from a low in 2016 (when people were more concerned with Brexit), quadrupled by 2019 and plummeted during the pandemic when people had other worries. But in the last year, the public’s concern about crime has risen again.

There are many possible explanations for this, of which the first is poor information. A study published in 1998 found that “people who watch a lot of television or who read a lot of newspapers will be exposed to a steady diet of crime stories” that does not reflect official statistics.

The old news media adage “if it bleeds, it leads” reflects how violent news stories, including crime increases and serious crimes, capture public attention. Knife crime grabs headlines in the UK, but our shock at individual incidents is testament to their rarity and our relative success in controlling violence – many gun crimes do not make the news in the US.

Most recent terrorist attacks in the UK have featured knives (plus a thwarted Liverpool bomber), but there is little discussion of how this indicates that measures to restrict guns and bomb-making resources are effective."

-via The Conversation, May 13, 2024

And the United States:

"[The United States experienced a spike in crime rates in 2020, during the pandemic.] But in 2023, crime in America looked very different.

"At some point in 2022 — at the end of 2022 or through 2023 — there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall," said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics.

In cities big and small, from both coasts, violence has dropped.

"The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too.

Yet when you ask people about crime in the country, the perception is it's getting a lot worse.

A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there was either a "very" or "extremely" serious crime problem — the highest in the poll's history going back to 2000.

So what's going on?

What the cities are seeing

What you see depends a lot on what you're looking at, according to Asher.

"There's never been a news story that said, 'There were no robberies yesterday, nobody really shoplifted at Walgreens,'" he said.

"Especially with murder, there's no doubt that it is falling at [a] really fast pace right now. And the only way that I find to discuss it with people is to talk about what the data says." ...

For cities like San Francisco, Baltimore and Minneapolis, there may be different factors at play [in crime declining]. And in some instances, it comes as the number of police officers declines too.

Baltimore police are chronically short of their recruitment goal, and as of last September had more than 750 vacant positions, according to a state audit report...

In Minneapolis, police staffing has plummeted. According to the Star Tribune, there are about 560 active officers — down from nearly 900 in 2019. Mannix said the 2020 police killing of George Floyd resulted in an unprecedented exodus from the department...

In Minneapolis, the city is putting more financial resources into nontraditional policing initiatives. The Department of Neighborhood Safety, which addresses violence through a public health lens, received $22 million in the 2024 budget."

-via NPR, February 12, 2024

[libraryofgage]

I realized Steve is absolutely that kid whose parents put him through piano lessons solely so they could have another way to show off at parties and shit. And then that thought morphed into a little Steddie plot bunny and here we are lol:

Steve doesn't know it's the last time he'll sit at the grand piano, the last time he'll press down its keys and let music fill the empty room before bleeding out into the empty house.

He doesn't know that when his parents next come home, his mother will notice how horribly out of tune the instrument is. He doesn't know that it will be sent off somewhere for repair (his parents won't tell him where, no matter how he asks, and he'll never quite understand why) and lost to him. He doesn't know his parents won't bother buying another one; it was only ever there to impress party guests when Steve sat down and played some Bach. Without those parties, company or otherwise, there's no point in getting another one: both the piano and Steve will have outlived their usefulness.

He doesn't know that he'll be storing away his sheet music, carefully placed into folders and in a waterproof box for safekeeping. He doesn't know that he'll soon become too consumed by high school and dating and monsters to idly write down notes on a staff. He doesn't know that when he's swinging a nail-ridden bat in the future (to destroy monsters, sure, but destruction is destruction, right?) he'll ache with the pain of missing the act of creation as a means of stress relief.

He doesn't know any of that, so Steve sits down at the grand piano with a soft smile, gently trailing his fingers over the keys before lining them up in the Middle C-position. He runs through a few warm-ups, letting muscle memory take him away, so he doesn't have to think. Without another thought, he seamlessly transitions into idly playing, bits and pieces of everything he remembers and songs he's heard blending together.

Mozart's Air morphs into Beethoven's Fur Elise into Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody. It doesn't all sound good together, but that's not the point when Steve plays by himself. All that matters is letting his brain shut off for a bit, letting the notes and echoes mingle together to create something new and joyful.

After two hours on the piano, his wrists are aching; he always forgets to hold them in the proper position when he plays alone. But it's a good ache, one that reminds him of the music still dancing around in his brain.

Steve takes a deep breath and slowly releases it, feeling the last of his tension dissipate. He lets his hands linger on the piano for a little longer before standing and leaving the room, tragically unaware of his imminent and unavoidable loss.

--------

Steve is sprawled across an old couch in Gareth's garage, reading Eddie's well-loved copy of Lord of the Rings. He'd promised to at least give it a go, and he had to admit he was looking forward to finally understanding some of the references Hellfire Club and the kids make. His progress is slow, but he's almost halfway through after two weeks of work. Reading while Corroded Coffin practices helps; the background noise of their music is perfect, letting him ignore all other sounds and focus.

Of course, that's provided they actually play continuously instead of starting the same song over and over only for Eddie to stop them halfway through. When it happens for the sixth time, Eddie growls in frustration, tugging harshly at a lock of hair. "It still sounds wrong!" he cries, dropping into a crouch while cradling his guitar close.

"Stopping us halfway through isn't helping," Gareth points out, idly twirling a drumstick as he watches Eddie's lament.

"Do you know what's wrong yet?" Asher asks.

Steve can longer focus on Lord of the Rings. Instead, he places the book on his chest and looks at the band to watch how this plays out. Eddie scowls and looks up at Asher. "Unfortunately, Ashy Baby, no."

Jeff, meanwhile, has locked eyes with Steve. And because Jeff knows the perfect way to get Eddie off their asses is to get him on Steve's instead, he says, "Why don't you ask Harrington what he thinks?"

Eddie whips around to look at Steve, eyes wide and hopeful. He doesn't even bother standing from his crouch, instead waddling his way over to Steve and testing his ability to hold back laughter at the sheer ridiculousness of the sight. "Stevie, baby, sweetheart, lover boy, please tell me that wonderful brain of yours has an idea so your favorite boyfriend can finish this rocking song."

"You're my only boyfriend."

"Which automatically makes me your favorite," Eddie points out, grinning as he leans closer. With Steve still laying down, Eddie's the perfect height in his crouch to kiss him. He lingers for a few seconds before pulling away, and Steve knows his own smile matches the dopiness of Eddie's.

"Have you considered adding a piano?" Steve asks.

"None of us know how to play," Asher says, and Steve would look at him if Eddie's face and hair and shoulders and everything weren't filling his entire line of sight.

Without thinking, Steve hums and says, "I do."

"Do what?" Eddie asks.

"Know how to play piano."

There's a silence that follows his sentence, one that makes Steve's stomach lurch as he wonders if he's maybe fucked up the shaky peace and friendship he's finally managed to build with the other members of Corroded Coffin. He doesn't know how his words might have done it, but he's scrambling to somehow take them back when Eddie slaps a hand over his mouth, the bands of his rings pressing against Steve's lips.

"Gareth, you still got that keyboard?" he asks, keeping his eyes locked on Steve. There's a light dancing in them like he's just discovered magic is real, like Steve has amazed him beyond imagination.

With a grunt, Gareth gets up from his drums and steps into his house. The rest of them stay in silence while waiting, Eddie refusing to remove his hand no matter how much Steve licks his palm. When he finally gives up and just glares at Eddie, his boyfriend grins brightly back.

"It's a little dusty, but it'll work fine," Gareth says when he comes back, and Eddie finally moves his hand and body, allowing Steve to see Gareth setting up a keyboard a few feet away from his drums.

"Okay, sweetheart," Eddie says, taking the book from Steve and carefully setting it aside before pulling him off the couch, "you've heard the song enough. Play what's missing."

Steve hesitates before walking over to the keyboard. Eddie sticks to him like a shadow, sliding his arms around Steve from behind once he's standing in front of the white and black keys. An odd nervousness churns in Steve, tugging at his spine and making his palms clammy, but he knows it would be much worse without Eddie there. If he had to play in front of the band without feeling like anyone was on his side, he'd probably just throw up instead.

"It, uh, it's been a while," he says quietly, easily falling into the muscle memory of tracing the keys and finding Middle C and dancing his fingers through warm-ups despite his words.

Eddie squeezes him tighter as Jeff asks, "Since you've played? Why?"

Memories of his grand piano rise in Steve unbidden, overwhelming him in a rush of longing for the instrument itself and the relaxation of playing. "My parents paid for lessons and had me play at company parties. They, uh, sent it off to be tuned, but it got damaged, and they didn't get another one."

"That sucks, Stevie," Eddie murmurs, soft and reassuring and Steve suddenly feels far more confident.

He looks up at Jeff. "Can you start playing again?" he asks, flashing a grateful smile when Jeff nods and starts strumming the song's opening notes.

Steve listens closely, breathing in the tune he's heard so many times and letting it take hold. He doesn't allow himself to actually think, letting Jeff's guitar and Eddie's arms and hair and scent drown out everything else. Before he knows it, he's playing a hesitant tune that grows with confidence as he follows the song laid out before him. He's always a measure behind, chasing the guitar's echoing notes as they fade.

He and Jeff make it through the whole song without Eddie telling them to stop. When the final notes of guitar and piano echo together, the latter still chasing the former even at the end, Steve is shaking with excitement and anxiety and grief and joy.

He lets out a slow breath, feeling tension he didn't even realize had lingered for so long finally draining from his shoulders and dissipating. Steve can also feel Eddie's face pressed against his neck, a smile searing into his skin as Eddie squeezes him even tighter.

"I love you so fucking much, Stevie, that's exactly what was missing," Eddie says, his words the only warning he gives before pulling Steve away from the keyboard and off his feet and spinning him around. His surprised yelp quickly morphs into laughter that still lingers even after Eddie has set him down again.

Gareth and Jeff and Asher have already started discussing how the other parts of the song might change with the addition of a keyboard, but Steve is too busy turning in Eddie's arms and kissing his smile away to pay them any mind. He can worry about inevitably being roped into the band's practices later, after he and Eddie are breathless and flushed and smiling bright.

[cheesec4k6]

Help

[felxxwiw]

S0m3 muff1ns f0r t34 :3

[undying-love]

"The deal was, Lennon was actually under the table taking Polaroid pictures up the skirts of his female companions while Paul lent a hand. Ringo laughed at everything, and Paul’s then girlfriend, Jane Asher, was doing her best to drag him out of there. Paul was ducking under the table himself now, helping John illuminate the proceeding with his disposable lighter, and Jane was searching the booth for her coat as we approached them, with Graham in the lead.

-"I’ll be leaving now, Paul. I’m going home. And I don’t mean your home." She made her way toward the exit as we walked up in a pack. Jim Tucker actually grabbed her army to stop her en route. -"Hey, Miss Asher. Hi. My name is Jim Tucker and I worked with your brother.” He extended his hand, only to have her push him away. -"Piss off, wanker!" Jane just blew him off and brushed past us on her way out of the club. Jim stood there examining his hand for a long moment. -“Jane! Jane! Aw, come on, baby. We’re just having a little fun.” Jane kept walking.

— Howard Kaylan, Jeff Tamarkin, Shell Shocked: My Life with the Turtles, Flo and Eddie, and Frank Zappa etc