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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: EK Fallout, Nylander’s Contract, Avs’ Crease, Tolvanen, Simmonds, & Zetterberg (Sept. 15th)

Photo Courtesy: @S7Dsn

The Dobber Fantasy Guide has been updated after all the recent moves (apparently there was a substantial one yesterday?). It will continue to be updated throughout camps, preseason and as we move through the early portion of the year. Buy it and never look back.

While you're at it, grab the Prospect Report as well. This is a young man's game and you can never know too much about what's coming down the pike.

Michael Clifford broke down the Karlsson to San Jose trade yesterday. I’d like to echo his sentiments that it seems nearly unfathomable that Peter DeBoer would leave Burns or Karlsson on the bench when the first power play unit steps onto the ice.

Sure, we can look at Nashville and see how splitting Subban and Josi onto two units has been successful for the team and both players. However, with no disrespect to Roman Josi, he is not Brent Burns.

{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Possible. More likely is he becomes Ovechkin and just hammers bombs from the left circle off passes from Jumbo and EK for 2 straight minutes every PP. <a href="https://t.co/1bF4JSeg3G">https://t.co/1bF4JSeg3G</a></p>— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Hockey_Robinson/status/1040319104215707648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 13, 2018</a></blockquote>

Having Burns blast away from that left circle will be insane. Evander Kane might be considered the best goal scorer on the team by many, but for my money it’s Burns. Being able to receive passes into his wheelhouse from Thornton and Karlsson may lead to him flirting with 30 goals again. He almost got there (29) in 2016-17.

My lifetime (32 years) has only seen three defenders break 30-goals. Kevin Hatcher (34 in 1992-93), Mike Green (31 in 2008-09), and Paul Coffee (30 in 1988-89). I’d like to see another.

I also share the viewpoint that Timo Meier is a great beneficiary of this deal. I expected him to continue to elevate his play, but his place beside Logan Couture should now be solidified. He’s a volume shooter with a high-end pedigree and a nose for finding the back of the net. Plus, now he has EK creating magic during five-on-five. Which is never a bad thing.

For more coverage on the trade, I broke down the prospects involved on DobberProspects.

It was announced on Friday morning that Henrik Zetterberg has played his final NHL contest. We had heard the rumours that his back had prohibited him from training this offseason and he was in danger of missing significant time.

It’s a shame that a player of his ilk was denied a farewell tour or at least a lasting standing ovation. While he didn’t hit the 500-goal or 1000-point benchmarks, his Conn Smythe Trophy, Triple Gold Club membership and King Clancy Award should be enough to send him into the Hall in the future.

Enjoy retirement, Hank.

As training camps opened around the league, there are a handful of familiar faces missing. Elliotte Friedman reported on several restricted free agents who have yet to put pen to paper and as such are MIA from camp.

The most fantasy-relevant being William Nylander. By the sound of it, Nylander and his camp want no part in a bridge-deal and are seeking something in the Leon Draisaitl 8-plus million dollar range.

As Freidman mentioned, Draisaitl had accumulated 128 points in the two seasons leading up to that monster eight-year, 68 million dollar (8.5 per) deal. Nylander has racked up 122. Most can agree that Draisaitl is overpaid, but with inflation coming into play, it’s not outrageous to ask for such a number. That’s what agents are for; asking.

We’ll see how this shakes out but I’m guessing Nylander isn’t overly interested in missing out on the offensive gravy train that's bubbling in Toronto these days.

I’ll put my best guess at a long-term deal worth 7.5 per.

So, who gets the lion share of the starts in Colorado this season? It’s a question every poolie with a pulse has been muttering to themselves this summer. After trading for the long-time Caps’ backup, the Avalanch have put another question mark next to Varlamov’s name. The Russian netminder has refused to stay healthy and/or consistent. He’s a volatile fantasy asset that few chase.

At this point, they probably give Varly the opening night gig if both play reasonably well in preseason. Then it’ll be all about the hot hand. If one goes on a long enough roll, they’ll build up some goodwill with the coaching staff and likely gain a longer leash.

Graubauer is my pick to finish with more starts, but nothing is certain in the world of goaltenders – especially ones who haven’t ever been given the ball on a long-term basis.

I released my Top 315 Skater Point Projections earlier this week. It’s two bucks for the whole shebang. Cheap Cheap.

Once a multicategory darling, Wayne Simmonds’ stock has fallen significantly. 2017-18 was a down season for the 30-year-old. Normally Simmonds is a near-lock for 25-plus goals, 50-60 points, triple-digit penalty minutes and over 200 shots on goal. However, last season saw his totals drop precipitously across the spectrum.

Five-year lows in goals (24), points (46), and shots on goal (176). His 57 penalty minutes were the lowest of his career – including the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign. A good chunk of this can be chalked up to his playing the season with a torn pelvis. That would not have been a fun challenge. He’s had the surgery and is ready to begin training camp.

There are a few more looming questions around the Flyers winger though. The first is contractual. He’s heading in into the final season of a six-year contract that paid him 3.975 million per. That’s turned out to be a sweetheart deal for the Flyers. And it's without question that Simmonds will be looking to cash in on what is likely his last big contract.

Second is the infusion of JVR into the lineup. The two play incredibly similar styles and there Is really only room for one net-front presence on the top power play. `Philly is paying van Riemsdyk a hefty salary and they won’t be paying him to see secondary minutes.

So, what comes next? Well, Simmonds' value will likely plummet in drafts this year. The concerns are justifiable. It’s unlikely that he sees three-plus minutes of power play deployment on the top unit next season as per usual. However, his overall game should rebound. Expect a return to the pugilistic and hardnosed player he’s always been. Rejuvenated shot metrics and around 50 blocks.

At his best, he was a 60-point player who needed top man-advantage deployment to contribute 30-plus percent of that production. Without the deployment, expect something in the 40-45-point range.

The wild card is if the Flyers decide to move the asset before seeing it walk for nothing in the offseason if they’re not prepared to pay him his ask. If a contender buys him, he will see a nice uptick in value. Something to watch as the season unfolds.

A popular pick to be in the Calder contention as Rookie of the Year this season is Eeli Tolvanen. We’ve all heard about his exploits last season in the KHL. Hell, I dedicated a weekly space at the end of my DobberProspects’ Ramblings to shine a light on the bushel of goals he’d racked up over that stretch.

However, his place in the Predators’ roster remains unclear.

No one is going to be pushing Filip Forsberg out of the top left-wing spot. He, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson are a package until something fundamentally stops working.

That leaves Tolvanen to battle it out with Kevin Fiala for the right to slide in beside Kyle Turris on the second line. Turris and Fiala formed a nice secondary wave of offense in Nashville last season. They both provide the strong two-way ability that Tolvanen still lacks. Fiala has been building the long way and his 23-goals a year ago could be just the tip of the iceberg.

If Tolvanen is unable to secure a spot in the top six, his outlook from the third line and second power-play unit should be muted. As mentioned earlier, the Preds have enough talent to spread between two man-advantage units. The 2017 first rounder's release will be the focal point on the left circle, while Ryan Ellis’ blast will work the right side. That should be able to bump his numbers up, but expecting much more than 40 points may be asking for trouble.

That’s all for now. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-ek-fallout-nylanders-contract-avs-crease-tolvanen-simmonds-zetterberg-sept-15th/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years ago

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Ramblings: Thoughts on Marner, Point, Scherbak, Puljujarvi, Hutton, Hart, Nylander and Schmaltz (Aug 13)

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The Fantasy Guide was released on August 1 and has already been updated three times since. The last being August 8 when I put rookie indicators in the draft list and added UFA notes to the Guide. Buy the 13th annual Fantasy Guide here. These little August updates I do just to keep things fresh until September hits and training camps start and the real updates start flying in. Long-time readers will know that I’m all over these, you can count on me.

Mitch Marner versus Brayden Point? Wow…this one caught me completely off guard on Twitter last week when someone asked that and I found the question very odd because the answer was so obvious. But when I publicized my Tweeted response it turns out that the answer really wasn’t obvious at all. There are people there who worship at the altar of Point! Recency bias at its best right there. Sometimes fantasy owners can get completely blinded by it. Thankfully, there is me here to educate!

Before I begin, I want to make one thing absolutely clear before all the Point lovers start piling it on me. I like Point. I’ve always liked Point, I even had him ranked sixth in the Fantasy Prospects Report (the rankings for that month you can find here – June of 2016). I got emails saying I overrated him in the FPR, but I explained that he was a sure-fire NHLer, strong likelihood of scoring line, will make the NHL sooner than you think, and just a very safe keeper pick all around. (As an aside, you can see Marner at No.3 on that same list, but not my point)

Point made a big splash that season with 40 points in 68 games, and he jumped to the next level last year with 66 points. Marner made similar strides, debuting at 61 and then 69 points. A lot of poolies who don’t follow careers and trends from the age of 17 onward, but instead just see the NHL data, can fall victim to this. Point had an upside in the FPR that year of 80+ points. So there is still room for more out of him still. But right now he is perfectly on track for what I envisioned him to be – a guy who seems to have a 60-point floor, an 80-point ceiling (maybe a tad higher) on a great team. Until he hits his prime, he’s probably going to hover around 65 to 70 points. Everything he’s doing and has done so far is pointing to this. I love it when prospects follow nice trajectories like that. It leaves little doubt. At least in my OCD logical mind. And he can reach his upside with a little help from great linemates.

Marner is also following his trajectory perfectly. Everything is hitting the right notes at the exact time I would want to see it. I had him in that 2016 FPR at a 90-point ceiling and 76-point 3YP. That’s extremely high for a 3YP on a prospect, I almost never do that with a player and this is because I was extremely bullish about him. This was his upside before Tavares was even being dreamed about by Toronto fans. With Tavares there, oh my goodness this guy could shoot past 95 points. Normally I call Marner the driver – and I still might. He doesn’t need the help of great linemates because he is the great linemate. But with Tavares there, you have two drivers.

So to me, when I was asked that question, I felt the answer was as obvious as the nose on Brad Marchand’s face. Marner is on track to regularly reach levels that maybe 10 other players hit. Point is on track to regularly reach levels that maybe 50 other players hit. So you have your answer. And then you factor in Tavares on top of the obvious answer that you should already have reached and it’s just a no-brainer.

I really like what the Sabres did this offseason and honestly, doesn’t everyone? Most fans were disappointed by what Buffalo produced last season because they had been expected to take a step forward in their rebuilding and instead they somehow went backwards. This time they add Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner, Casey Mittelstadt, Carter Hutton and Patrik Berglund among others, losing only Ryan O’Reilly. So is this enough to make them a winning team? I think this makes them an 80- or even an 85-point team, which makes Hutton a potential 30-win goalie. Will Phil Housley ride him like a true No.1? That’s the main question. The secondary question – will he be another Scott Darling? Hutton has had a 40-game season before, but that was in 2014. I think there will be some growing pains here, and the situation reminds me a lot of Edmonton’s back when Cam Talbot arrived. He had a horrible start and Anders Nilsson seized the starting role for a month or so. But Talbot took it back and a big reason is because he was paid to do so. He had the contract and was crowned starting goalie, and when a team does that – then he’s getting all the possible starts. And as you saw with Carolina (and St. Louis) last season, they will keep giving the goalie starts even at the cost of making the playoffs. If you’re deemed to be the starter, amid much fanfare (and dollars) – then you’re getting the starts. Long story short, although Linus Ullmark is a good goaltender and perhaps he is even better than Hutton – he’s not going to take the starting job. Not this year, and probably not ever. Long term there might be something with Ullmark as a future starter somewhere, but for this year and likely next, his odds are slim.

A couple of you asked me about where I think William Nylander falls in terms of his AAV. And everything I’ve heard about negotiations is that he wants a long-term contract. And frankly the Leafs would be crazy not to go along with that. He’s certainly going to exceed $6 million, so the question on your mind is likely – will he reach $8 million? Here’s what I think. If he signs for five years, then they may be able to get him for $6.25. If he signs for eight years, then you’re probably looking at an AAV of $8. I’ll come in south of the middle with my guess and say six years and $6.75 AAV.

How should you treat Restricted Free Agents when it comes to drafting them? I would treat them as if they’ve signed, because they will. A player holding out is so rare these days, you may see one this year at the most. RFAs of note: Noah Hanifin, Ondrej Kase, Sam Reinhart, Nick Ritchie, Shea Theodore, Josh Morrissey, Darnell Nurse and of course Nylander.

Jordan Schmaltz is another interesting one because you just know he’s going to be pushing for not only a one-way deal, but one with a big enough cap hit that it helps his chances of getting into the lineup regularly. His qualifying offer was for $1 million and I’m assuming was a two-way Q.O. He’s probably hoping to get just that in a one-way deal, whereas the team is probably okay with giving him a one-way deal, but would probably want him to take less to do it – maybe $750,000. If he signs for a number like that, than he may as well be on a two-way deal because teams have no problem with burying a contract like that in the minors. At $1 million the team hesitates a little longer and gives the player more leash.

If Erik Karlsson gets traded I think Thomas Chabot tops 45 points. If he sticks around until Christmas then my expectation for Chabot is closer to 35. He’s Ottawa’s second-best PP QB option right now, even over Chris Wideman.

Another young defenseman, Sam Girard, is in a different situation and has a different kind of skill set. I think he’ll need to be eased into the role as Tyson Barrie’s heir apparent. I’d expect baby steps this year and next, perhaps a trajectory similar to Ryan Ellis (though without the injuries).

These are questions I received on Twitter Sunday, by the way. Someone asked for my opinion on Nikita Scherbak and Carter Hart. Scherbak is a skilled player with second-line upside and perhaps he could even be a first liner on a weak team such as Montreal. But he gets hurt too often. He’s been hurt more often than healthy ever since he turned pro and I don’t have very high hopes for him. But he’s on the team that needs his skill set the most. If he could just string together 80 games then he could surprise this year. But there’s no way I would bet even $10 bucks on that.

As for Carter Hart, I guess what’s really being asked here is – “Hey, next summer Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth both become free agents, so will Carter Hart be the No.1 guy?” I certainly think that’s possible, even though it’s rare these days to see a 21-year-old grab the reins like that. Carey Price is the last one I can think of – and that goes for 22 and 23-year-olds as well. I think the Flyers will have a good year and if Elliott can play 50 games (he hasn’t done that in seven years though), then the team may re-sign him for two years. In which case, Hart would become the backup goalie in the middle of 2019-20 and then by the middle of 2020-21 he’ll take over as the starter. That puts his wait time at 1.5 years until the NHL, and 2.5 years until he actually helps you in fantasy. That being said, both Elliott and Neuvirth are injury prone and Alex Lyon has to clear waivers to be sent down – so I’m curious to see what he does as the likely No.3 goalie for this season.

Jesse Puljujarvi. A victim of being drafted too high. Had he been drafted 12th overall in 2016 most fantasy owners would consider him a top prospect to own. Before his 20th birthday, he played his 93rd NHL game and scored his 13th career goal. What were you looking for, exactly? As I outlined in the Fantasy Guide, Puljujarvi took on much tougher minutes last season, possibly the toughest among forwards in terms of not seeing strict offensive zone starts and facing stronger competition. And he came away smelling like roses. What’s more, his 5on5 S% indicated that he was the victim of tough puck luck in terms of putting points on the board. So as a 19 year old he was one of the rare defensively responsible Oilers and even though his teammates shot just 6.6% when he was on the ice, he still got 20 points in 68 games. I think he is a safe bet for 35 points this year and has an outside shot at 55. My long-term projections for him remain exactly where they always were and consider him a serious buy-low in keeper leagues.

I started watching this, and ended up getting sucked in for the entire thing…(the Darling blooper reel begins at 4:00)

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Also, in case you missed it, I posted different rankings in five of the last six days. Check out all the Rankings here.

See you next Monday.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-thoughts-on-marner-point-scherbak-puljujarvi-hutton-hart-nylander-and-schmaltz-aug-13/

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