#I’ll take results within a day or two and remove the poll
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somorrow · 7 months ago
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Hey guys! I initially wasn’t going to ask this of you, but I’m conflicted and I’ve decided to get some feedback from my lovely readers.
As I’ve mentioned before, most of my work was started years ago. I’ve taken several hiatuses since then, and I’m picking it back up now. In order to do that, though, I have to be interested and like what I’m writing.
The next chapter of The First Path is extremely pivotal as there is a huge reveal for the reader; however, upon reading and rewriting some of the fic, I find that I no longer like the “mirrored timeline” plotline. I’ve been considering rewriting it entirely, which is why I’ve been holding off on the coming chapter. The next chapter is practically finished and the final chapter has been started, but I can’t stop the feeling that I’d rather rewrite it.
I feel like I’d like it so much better if I rewrote the series. It would make it much easier to write. I’ve outgrown that subplot and I’m finding it difficult to continue. I have two sequels to write after this, and I don’t want it to drag on. I want the writing process to be smooth going forward so I can update consistently.
If I were to do a complete rewrite, I’d separate the fics and remove that plotline entirely, making both The First and Second Path standalone fics. The reader would remain the same, but all references to the other timelines would be removed (except in the very end of TSP’s sequel). Because they will be relatively big changes I wanted to get your opinion. This will not change the overall main plot of either fic whatsoever.
When you vote, keep it in mind that I prefer to change it, but if too many people are attached to the way it is, I’ll try keep it as is even if it’ll be challenging to push through. I assure you I’ll replace that subplot with something even better.
Thanks for your input friends!
- Raven 🐦‍⬛
EDIT: Thanks for all of your votes. I’ve officially decided to rewrite the series. If you’d like to keep a copy of the originals, I’d download them from ao3 now, as I’m starting to make the changes. 🖤 Both stories will be fairly heavily affected by the rewrites. TFP has now been renamed The Flames of Love, and TSP In Hell. I will announce when the fics have been properly rewritten. I would recommend a reread of both in the future.
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thanksjro · 4 years ago
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Dark Cybertron Chapter 1: Welcome to Comic Event Hell
You know what readers love? When the stories they’ve gotten invested in over the course of a couple years get interrupted for some pseudo-crossover bullshit.
And you know what writers love? When the story they’ve been crafting over the course of a couple years get interrupted for some pseudo-crossover bullshit.
Did I say love?
Because I didn’t mean it.
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“Dark Cybertron” was penned by John Barber and James Roberts, with collaboration with comic writer and artist Phil Jimenez, and was published from early November, 2013 to late March, 2014. Atilio Rojo, James Raiz, and Livio Ramondelli did the art, each responsible for scenes in specific locations, with Robert Gill filling in as needed. Alex Milne, Andrew Griffith, and Brendan Cahill would also contribute pencils to the first issue and the back half of the series. It was a celebration of the 30th anniversary of the franchise, and the second birthday of Phase Two... which went on for over four months, but never mind that!
Both "Dark Cybertron” and its preliminary materials were made to go alongside the Transformers: Generations toy-line, each issue being included as a toy pack-in with whatever character was being featured… or, at least, that was the plan. Sometimes it didn’t work out. Regardless, this storyline was created to sell toys directly, as opposed to the MTMTE/RID series being made to sell toys more through the power of suggestion. It’s a small distinction, but important, because it will help explain any lack of soul one may perceive while they read “Dark Cybertron”.
“But Hannz!” you cry out, reaching to grab me by the throat and shake me like a rag doll, because to you I’m merely a faceless voice on the internet. “Surely by calling this specific storyline soulless, you’re completely ignoring the very nature of this franchise that you’re almost uncomfortably invested in!”
To which I’ll say this: look, I’m pretty realistic about where my giant space robots came from; Transformers as a franchise would not exist the way it does without Ronald Reagan introducing the Free Market to literal children and fucking up how we interact with media for the rest of time. There is no ethical consumption under capitalism, and that rings especially true when I’ve got a Spinister on my bookshelf staring me down as I write this, that was likely made out of plastics which either involved blood oil or unethical labor practices, if not both.
However!
The choices of a company to have their comic license holders to cook up an entire plot that derails what they’ve already got planned out for toy tie-in comics is a completely different animal than what IDW had had going on up to this point. Phase Two had been about exploring different ideas that hadn’t been able to be explored during the war, and seeing what happens when you take away a third of the logline for Transformers G1 as a whole. Being a part of a brand of toys was almost inconsequential to how the stories were being told; even the Spotlights, which were also toy tie-in comics, had plenty of charm to them, if only because there weren’t quite as many constraints placed on the writers, and they were stand-alone issues.
Of course, being tie-in comics isn’t the only reason that “Dark Cybertron” is a bit of a slog, considering everything IDW itself was trying to get done within this storyline, but we’ll cover the publishing company’s/Simon Furman’s/Transformers’ tumultuous relationship with the concept of gender identity and expression later on, when it becomes relevant to the story proper. This point also ties into the interesting origin of Windblade, who we’ll meet in a few issues, and what happens when you let your fanbase have a taste of power and forget that people might like to see themselves represented in the media they consume.
“Dark Cybertron” is what ended up making me stop reading MTMTE the first time I tried it in 2015. A big part of it was because it forced the reader to need so much information from RID and even events prior to Phase Two, it wasn’t very fun to try to parse what was going on, on top of the writing beginning to flag because of obvious constraints to what Barber and Roberts could actually do, both within their deadlines and the rules put in place by their higher ups for the event.
 “Dark Cybertron” is the result of the sort of executive meddling that kills reader enjoyment by requiring writers to cram their two worlds together as quickly as possible, without the option to go for nuance because there simply isn’t time. The reason we have four separate artists for the front half of this story is because Milne and Griffith didn’t have time to draw both their current workload and “Dark Cybertron” at the same time... but sales probably went up due to the nature of how the story was published, so I’m sure they didn’t really see a problem with it.
That’s a general “they��, not a Milne and Griffith “they”.
In short, we’ve got license contract obligations, fan-poll obligations, and gender stuff fighting for space within the next 12 issues, which will be published in the span of roughly four months. Things are probably going to be a little bloated and sloppy.
Regardless of any of these points, this is what we’ve got. It’s not like it’s all bad- “Dark Cybertron” has the benefit of being written by two people who had been working closely before it had even been conceptualized. Barber was the senior editor for MTMTE, and IDW as a whole until he left in 2016. It also isn’t a proper crossover- y’know, where two completely separate titles get mashed together for a bit. MTMTE and RID exist in the same universe, just have their own things going on, so a decent amount of things still carry over without you needing to have read every single thing in both. The writing, while not quite up to par with pieces that had more creative freedom and breathing room between scenes, is still recognizable as being Barber and Roberts’. Their voices are still here, they’re just strained under the weight of everything that has to be said inside of 12 issues.
With all THAT out of the way, let’s dive in to Dark Dawn: Dark Cybertron Chapter 1.
We get a quick rundown of the most basic information you’ll need for this entire story to make sense, as we reintroduce the fact that Shockwave is an ecoterrorist with more agendas than a daily planner factory on meth, and also that he grows magic crystals. I don’t care what he says, the Ores are fucking space-magic. If you don’t want to read through all of RID for everything else, please see Robots in Disguise (2012), #1-22- A Recap, For Reference Purposes.  We also get a quick rundown of the Lost Lighters’ deal, as Swerve potentially has a meta-episode.
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Be careful what you fucking wish for, bucko.
Our story proper starts with a flashback to the shittiest road trip Cyclonus ever went on, as the Ark 1 finds itself at the edge of a mysterious portal. This is likely why he wasn’t super thrilled when the portal to Luna 1 showed up- portals are probably a touchy subject for him.
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Jhiaxus doesn’t know what this portal is- surely this means that science has failed us, and it’s time to call in the religious crowd to try and suss out what’s going on here.
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It’s moments like this that make me wonder what exactly happened in the Dead Universe that made Cyclonus’ cheek meat just pack up and leave.
Now, we know that Cyclonus is correct here, because we as readers have more knowledge than the characters at this point, but Jhiaxus tries to write off this theory as hogwash, because he is a man of rationality and science. This is a slight removal from his character in the present, whose most notable traits seem to be a lack of ethics and screaming.
Everyone here seems to be slightly different from their current iterations, actually; Galvatron doesn’t say a word as he steps between Jhiaxus and Cyclonus, only using his body to communicate that the scientist might want to back off. Cyclonus himself is certainly the wordiest we’ve ever seen him to be, droning on through his actual thought process before he comes to a conclusion on what exactly they’ve found. Compare this to the Cyclonus of today, who only deigns to grace everyone with his voice if they outright threaten him, have something he wants, or are Tailgate. If he were to ever pull this verbal meandering on board the Lost Light, people would probably assume he’s having a stroke.
Nova Prime- you remember him, don’t you?- gives not a fuck about the Dead Universe, only what it means for him personally. And what it means for him is more locations to subjugate, because he is cartoonishly evil. His character is the least removed from his present-day iteration out of everyone. He tells the crew they’ll be getting a little closer, only for the portal to do the work for them, by way of dark energy tentacles.
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Wow, the pilot for the Ark 1 really is just straight-up named Butt, isn’t he? And what the fuck is that face you’re making, Cyclonus? Are you- oh my god, are you emoting? Oh my god, he’s emoting.
As the Ark 1 is pulled to its doom, Jhiaxus makes a quick phone call to Shockwave to tell him he’s his favorite, and to keep up the good work.
In the present, Shockwave reflects on just how friggin’ long this whole ordeal has taken. Fortunately, Waspinator and the Titan are almost here, and he can hardly wait.
Not, uh, that he’s got emotions or anything. It’s been established that he doesn’t have those anymore. Is impatience an emotion? Does that count?
Shockwave seems like he’d be really frustrating to write for.
Anyway, the Titan shows up, the Ore inside him and the Ore in the underground Crystal City combine, and the Titan starts screaming because everything hurts. Shockwave’s about as thrilled as he can be about the situation, given his lack of emotions.
Above Crystal City, we finally get back to that nonsense about the early sunrise, as someone- maybe Starscream, given the color of the narration box- waxes poetic on the planet of Cybertron, wartorn and wild in its rebirth, ruled by paranoia that has nothing to bounce off of, and so creates its own walls.
Then we get a detailed shot of Rattrap’s mug, and the moment is broken.
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Rattrap’s character is a lot of fun in everything he gets tossed into, but you’re a goddamn liar if you think he’s pretty to look at. You are lying to yourself, and I won’t apologize for saying it.
Starscream walks out of his room in his hot new body, feeling fine and ready to take on the world. We’ll check in on him later in the day to see how that positive mentality is working out for him.
So, the sun hasn’t moved, and it’s way too early for the sun to even be up right now. That’s weird. Because I guess he didn’t know how the sun works, Starscream’s only just realized that this is perhaps a problem. He does some computer work and realizes that this is indeed a very bad thing, and asks that Rattrap call the Autobots. Not the ones who fucked off into the wilderness, the other ones. The gay, space ones.
Up in space, Orion Pax and his pals have found themselves in dire straits, the collapsing Gorlam Prime sucking their ship back down as the Death Ore consumes everything.
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That’s not how engines work! And I think it really says something about the “Prelude” issues that I completely forgot why Wheelie was down an arm for a solid five seconds.
It turns out that Orion was the narrator the entire time, which I should have known- since when is the once and future Optimus Prime not the primary voice in any media he appears in?
It’s looking rough for the fellas, but luckily we’ve got to get the plot rolling, so the Lost Light VZZZZTs into existence and picks up the Skyroller to place it gently into its belly.
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Orion isn’t exactly jazzed about the fact that Rodimus didn’t listen to what he told him, not even bothering to thank the guy for saving his life. I say y’all keep going on your Thunderclash Quest and leave this ungrateful loser behind. No space yachting for you, Orion.
The rest of the Pax Posse enter the Lost Light proper, and Hardhead reveals that he nearly joined the Quest, before he saw who all would be coming with, while Garnak has a tearful reunion with Rodimus. The fact that he’s calling him Sir- which I don’t recall him doing in Transformers (2009), at least not in a way that seems reminiscent of an unfortunate Antebellum Period Romance- feels rather weird, but I’m glad someone’s fucking happy to see Rodimus at least. Ultra Magnus asks Orion if he’ll be assuming command of the vessel, as Rodimus tries not to look horrified by the thought alone, but fortunately Orion’s not going to pull his “I’m Optimus Prime and I Can Do What I Want” Card just yet.
Smash cut to the bridge, as Rodimus tries to make himself sound competent, when Starscream calls. Orion doesn’t like that Starscream has their number, Perceptor almost reveals the fact that this ship technically doesn’t belong to a faction, likely due to being purchased after the war, and Cyclonus gets brought in for his professional opinion.
As it turns out, that early sunrise isn’t a sunrise at all, but a portal to the Dead Universe. This is a problem, because the Dead Universe really sucks, and you don’t want to go there, especially if you enjoy being alive. Orion seems more concerned about the fact that Starscream is ruling the planet, and Bumblebee is nowhere to be found.
Speaking of Bumblebee, he and all his camp buddies are psyching themselves up for a confrontation.
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Swoop, please, this is hardly the time for crudeness.
The Dinobots, sick of Bumblebee’s dithering about, decide they’re going to fight the fucking sun and gear up. Prowl, though generally disliking their brand of problem-solving, does share his begrudging respect of their can-do attitude.
Their can-do attitude over fighting the fucking sun.
Then an earthquake happens and the ground rips open to reveal that Titan that Waspinator showed up with.
Shockwave takes over the narration at this point, and we get artsy, as we see events that haven’t transpired yet over musings on the nature of... time? Maybe? It would be in line with Roberts’ go-to topics, but honestly the whole thing’s kind of vague so I couldn’t give you a solid answer. Shockwave gets awfully introspective for a guy who shouldn’t care, I know that much. The point is, he is inevitable and is super good at logic and science.
Also, Nova Prime and Galvatron are back, which is cool, I guess. Not sure where Galvatron had gotten to exactly after the events of “Chaos”, but he’s back now, so it doesn’t matter too terribly much. Shockwave serves them, which we’ll probably get an explanation for at some point.
God, you can practically taste the desperation to pin all these plot points together before the entire thing implodes on itself.
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tailahjanbash · 6 years ago
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Politics and Jesus?
I’m tired.
I’m tired of the Facebook wars, being forced to pick sides, and biased media.
I’m tired of seeing confederate flags and people talking about minorities like we are an infestation. I’m tired of propaganda and people slapping Jesus or rhetoric on top of their politics in order to justify one side and demonize the other.
I was reading Jeremiah this morning and stumbled across a scripture that I couldn’t quite shake.
“I will be merciful only if you stop your evil thoughts and deeds and start treating each other with justice; only if you stop oppressing the foreigner, the fatherless, or the widows and do not shed innocent blood in this place, and if you do not follow other gods to your own harm, then I will let you live in this place, in the land I gave your ancestors for ever and ever. But look, you are trusting in deceptive words that are worthless.” Jeremiah 7:5-7
I couldn’t help but reflect on the political climate of our nation—especially with the midterms having been so recent.
I’ll be transparent with you—my political views have been clashing with my spiritual beliefs as of late, and it’s been driving me insane.
I concluded that God’s heart was more just than my own. So, I sought The Lord for guidance. The more I did this; the more recognizable faults from both sides became. Instead of resorting to my parents, friends, or celebrities for correct stances, I brought each topic and controversy before the Lord and examined it next to scripture.
I want my beliefs to align with Jesus’—not an imperfect man-made party’s. At the end of the day, don’t politics and social justice boil down to human rights and the way we deal with people?
I do not want to handle human beings through a systematic, polarized structure created by imperfect humans when I have the opportunity to treat people the way Jesus did.
God brought some freshman year biology back to my mind as I began to unpack Jeremiah. I remembered learning about certain sicknesses that would cause the immune system (the system in our body that fights germs and keeps us healthy) to attack itself. This snippet, for the sake of understanding the analogy, is from WomensHealth.gov:
‘Our bodies have an immune system, which is a complex network of special cells and organs that defends the body from germs and other foreign invaders. At the core of the immune system is the ability to tell the difference between self and non-self: what’s you and what’s foreign. A flaw can make the body unable to tell the difference between self and non-self. When this happens, the body makes autoantibodies that attack normal cells by mistake. At the same time, special cells called regulatory T cells fail to do their job of keeping the immune system in line. The result is a misguided attack on your own body. This causes the damage we know as autoimmune disease.’
Our government along with the media, have polarized parties and pitted Democrats and Republicans against each other so much so, that just like those cells, we no longer recognize each other and attack our own body.
The white blood cells believe they are defending the body and protecting it by attacking the other cells, and vice versa. We see this reflected through our divided rhetoric—“Democrats want to take guns away so we can be controlled by the government!” and “Republicans care more about owning guns than the lives of children!”
Injustice is always someone else’s fault.
Both want to fix the issue. Both want to help and protect the people. So where is the disconnect?
Can I voice an unpopular opinion? I travel very often, so just hear me out when I say: I think American culture is extremely prideful in comparison to other nations. I don’t understand extreme patriotism, because my identity and allegiance are not rooted in a piece of land or a flag. I love my home and where I am from, but I know that this is all temporary. Our permanent residence is in heaven and our identity should always be rooted in Jesus.
This issue of pride has blinded us to believe that we couldn’t possibly be the problem. But when the Holy Spirit opened my eyes to the analogy of the auto immune disease, I realized that by placing the foundation of my beliefs upon a political party then sprinkling Jesus on top… I was contributing to the problem.
Pride causes us to be blind to our own faults and internal pain. We point the finger so we feel a false sense of righteousness like the Pharisees. However, in reality, the body is internally attacking and weakening itself in the name of “justice”.
Isn’t it funny how we proudly wave the banner of justice within a man-made political party?
Imma say it louder for the people in the back:
The values expressed are completely made by humans! Imperfect, sinful, selfish, people! And you’re telling me your side has it all figured out? And the other side is close-minded? Oh, the irony.
We forget the author of justice.
The only righteous judge.
The only perfect one.
Justice and truth will never be found apart from God. If you sprinkle Jesus on top of your politics like I did, you might have some truth in there, but then man’s selfish ambition will inevitably rear its ugly head.
Kris Vallotton, a pastor at Bethel Redding, shared this recently regarding Political Spirits:
1) The political spirit always needs an enemy! This spirit is more concerned with winning an election than with solving a problem.
2) The political spirit demonizes anyone who doesn’t agree with them. In other words, we don’t just see them as wrong on an issue, we view them as evil.
3) The political spirit imprisons our minds and reduces us to partisan opinions. This spirit separates people into two categories; winners and losers. In this environment, straw polls replace practical wisdom and success is measured in media bits rather than real solutions.
4) True governance is displaced by political polarization in which, people are expected to support a party rather than legitimate answers. This political spirit replaces national patriotism with loyalty to a party. This attitude creates a culture where we don’t have permission to think for ourselves but it’s “decision by affiliation.”
These characteristics can be found throughout scripture in the old and new testament. We see ungodly rulers like Ahab, Jezebel, and Herod operating in this spirit, blatantly defying the will of God and wreaking havoc upon God’s people.
Now that we have removed the blinders, taken a step back, and identified the problem, let’s move on to the solution.
One way can help this weak and sickly immune system recover, is by having conversations. I think the best way to fall into polarized thinking is to stereotype and generalize people.
Talk to someone that doesn’t have the same skin color as you. Ask your Hispanic friends if they feel safe. Talk to some white boys, see where they’re coming from. Your LGBTQ friends, your Muslim friends and family members. Ask your Black peers about oppression in 2018. Do you see a pattern here? Learning, understanding, and empathy on an individual level.
Jesus was and will always be personal and intentional with us. How can we demonstrate His love if we lump people into categories?
You may not have the platform of a celebrity or a politician, but I believe what you have is better.
You have the ability to individually touch lives, just like Jesus.
You have the ability to love the people who are difficult to love; who disagree with and offend you.
By loving these people, not only are you mending a divide, you are showing them who Jesus is. This creates ripples of life and hope, which impacts people 1,000,000 x more than some biased news report or tweet.
Even if you don’t speak one word about politics or God, you have the ability to let the gospel of love shine and reflect so brightly within you that it leads the lost into His loving arms.
This radical love can only be achieved when the Holy Spirit makes His home in our hearts. It is not a love that is found here on earth; it is a supernatural love that only abides in The Father. I pray that it rests in our hearts today, and we begin to see people the way Jesus does.
**You can read more blog posts, devotionals, and resources by visiting my official site: http://www.thechosengirl.info/
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readingraebow · 6 years ago
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Boardwalk Empire Section Two
Chapters 7-Afterword
1. How were Taggart and Hap’s childhoods different? Who ended up succeeding Nucky and why? Taggart was born into an upper class family. His father was Atlantic City's chief surgeon 25 years and his mother came from old wealth. Taggart attended law school and opened his own law practice with his family's backing. But he immediately gravitated toward politics and began helping out on campaigns. However, he was never really "one of the boys". Taggart was a closeted homosexual. So basically he grew up with a ~fairly easy life except he could never openly be himself. Hap, on the other hand, was the last born of ten children. His family was super poor and constantly struggled to keep everyone fed and clothed. They lived on the Northside next to blacks and a red light district. As a child, Hap delivered newspapers and proofread for the local newspaper. However, Hap's father was secretary to the local fire department and ended up being a part of both the Kuehnle and Johnson machines. He used his friendships to help several of his sons obtain positions of note within the community. Hap, though, was smart and his sister convinced him to go to college. He, too, went to law school. And Hap is the one who ended up succeeding Nucky. Basically Hap made important friends and he helped all of his opponents obtain jobs that were better suited for their desires. And then Taggart basically put the nail in his own coffin when he started turning on the system and leading raids on gambling dens. Taggart was eventually removed from power and Hap took over as Nucky's successor.
2. How did Hap say he got his start in politics? What was the real cause? He said that, while in law school, he'd taken up the cause of his basketball team which had been locked out of the school gym. And while Hap did lead a movement for better facilities for young athletes, that wasn't really how he got his start in politics. His true influence was years of going nowhere in his law practice and struggling to survive while he watched his brothers, who were far less educated, rise through the ranks of Johnson's machine into well-paying, secure jobs. This was the true inspiration for Hap and he realized that to make it in Atlantic City, he'd have to follow the same path.
3. What were some of the contributions to Atlantic City’s decline in the 50s and 60s? Postwar modernization was one of the biggest reasons for Atlantic City's decline. Air conditioning and swimming pools meant that people didn't have to leave home to enjoy themselves. It also created more competition by Southern resorts. And with air travel becoming affordable, more were willing to save their money and travel long distances rather than take weekend trips to Atlantic City. And the invention that did the most damage to Atlantic City was the automobile. Atlantic City wasn't super easy to get to and relied mostly on the railroad. But with cars, people could just hop in and go wherever they wanted and weren't a slave to train schedules. To top it all off, because Atlantic City hadn't been doing well, the entire place was rundown. They didn't have any money for modernizations and most people wouldn't travel to such an antiquated place. Or, if they did visit, they wouldn't come back. Atlantic City was mostly a place for nostalgia and those who came back, wanting to see the place where they'd stayed as children, found that it wasn't the same as they remembered. And they didn't come back.
4. What did the bumper sticker say that summed up the town’s situation? It read, "Last one off the island, turn out the lights."
5. What did Weiner learn from his telephone polls regarding the casino issue? Through the telephone polls, Weiner learned that nearly eight out of ten voters believed that casinos had the potential to generate large amounts of revenue for the state government. They didn't know how much revenue gambling would produce but they felt strongly that it had to be a lot of money. They also believed that gambling would strongly impact them because it would lower their state tax rates and leave them with more money in their pockets.
6. Who was Matthew Micheals? He was the mayor of Atlantic City but he was basically only interested in the position because he wanted to be famous. And he behaved like there were no limits to his power. He basically just wanted to be the life of every party and, as a result, was a terrible mayor. And he believed in himself so highly that he was literally caught by having dinner with an undercover FBI agent who was wearing a wire and literally bragging about all of his misdeeds. He then accepted a $100,000 bribe in marked bills. So he wrote his own death warrant and was removed from his office in handcuffs.
7. What was Fred Trump’s early life like and how did he start his business? Fred Trump's dad began a real estate venture in New York City but he died when Fred was 11 and Fred's mother then struggled to provide for her three children. However, Fred went to work shortly after his father's death as a "horse helper" which meant during the winter months, when it was icy and the horses couldn't make it up steep hills with loads of lumber, Fred and other young, strong boys would carry the loads to construction sites instead of the horses. Then, as a teenager, Fred became a carpenter himself. He was self employed by 18 and, too young to sign checks or enter into contracts by himself, did business as "Elizabeth Trump and Son". He began building houses to sell and, eventually, built rental properties. Because he built them himself and didn't have any financial backers, he made all of the profits off of all of his properties. Fred Trump became the city's largest landlord.
8. What did you think of this book? So I don't exactly know how I feel about this book. On the one hand, I liked what this book was trying to do and I did learn a lot from it. But I honestly didn't like the way it tried to do it. Because this book was honestly kind of boring and I fell asleep quite a lot reading it. And that's disappointing because this book really did have a lot of information and I honestly feel like I know a lot about Atlantic City now. So I liked this book but I didn't like this book, if that makes sense? I liked the idea of this book, I just wish it had been executed a little bit better.
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  Section Two Reading Journal
Okay, so. Let’s first talk about this book in reference to the show. Because wow that’s a different world. And honestly that fascinated me a lot. So Nucky’s reign is only about two chapters in this book and it’s the entire basis of the show. And most of the show’s characters aren’t in this book (and most apparently also are not based on real people; except Arnold Rothstein which, why isn’t he in this book??? I’m upset). So I honestly found that really interesting. Nucky’s reign is, arguably, the most interesting part of this book since that seems to be the most “glamorous” era for Atlantic City.
That being said, I really did enjoy learning more about Atlantic City through this book. Because I honestly didn’t know anything about it except that it’s basically the East Coast Vegas. But it’s definitely interesting that there was such a long period between the glamour of the 20s and when gambling was finally legalized in 1978 and it finally started to restructure. I totally didn’t know any of that.
So I really do like what this book was trying to do and I did find it interesting. But it also took me three years to get back to this book and as soon as I was done, I was so glad I could finally cross it off my list. So even though I found it interesting, it wasn’t a book I actually enjoyed reading. And while that is pretty standard with most history books, it’s also disappointing. I guess I just wanted this to be a little less dry? Because Atlantic City is fascinating. I just wish this had been more fun to read.
But. Glad to finally have read it and, wow, that last chapter was, uh, fascinating. Especially since Trump was not even running for president yet (I don’t think?), when I originally started this book. So reading it now, after he’s been president for a while, was, uh, doubly fascinating. (I also groaned quite a bit when I saw the title of that chapter but here we are.) So I find it super interesting that one of the people who ended up saving Atlantic City was Donald Trump. That honestly just blows my mind for some reason.
So, I’m really interested in visiting Atlantic City at some point. I know a lot has changed since the eras in the contents of this book. It sounds like most of the buildings that were there during Nucky Johnson’s (so hard for me not to type Thompson, wow) time are gone or have been remodeled. And it sounds like most of the casinos that were built originally have also been gutted and remodeled (even the Taj Mahal is not the same anymore???? And that’s honestly the one I was really interested in visiting). So hopefully I get to visit Atlantic City some day. From a historical perspective, I’m definitely interested in seeing it and seeing how much it has changed from what I read in this book, haha.
I’m honestly also ready to go back and rewatch the show and, uh, actually finish it. (I still don’t think I made it much past season two. I think I made it just a little ways into season three. Because all of my babies die. Whhyyyyyy??) OH. Also. It seems like everyone dies far more dramatically in the show than they did in this book? Because Nucky died of old age. And it seems like most of the gang violence in the show wasn’t actually a thing. Or, at least, this book didn’t really cover that. So. Found that interesting as well.
Okay I’ll stop thinking of more things to add now, haha. I’m glad to have finally finished this book and I can’t wait to continue finishing other books that I should’ve read a long time ago. Yay!!!
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patriotsnet · 3 years ago
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Who Will Be Speaker Of The House If Republicans Win
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-if-republicans-win/
Who Will Be Speaker Of The House If Republicans Win
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Weakening Of The Investigations Against Trump
Pelosi Says She Will Not Let Republican ‘Antics’ Interfere With Jan. 6 Committee
If Democrats dont control the House or the Senate, they cant initiate investigations of Trump or some of his more controversial cabinet members, such as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.
More importantly, after the 2018 elections, the electoral process will recede as a constraint on the president and GOP in terms of the Russia investigation at least for a while.
We dont really know why Trump, despite his constant criticisms of the investigation, has not fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or why he has not directly tried to stop the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law. I think its more likely that Trump understands that firing Rosenstein or making a drastic move to stop the Mueller probe would increase both the chances of Democrats winning the House and/or Senate this year, and the odds that the resulting Democratic-led chamber would feel compelled to push to impeach Trump. But if the GOP emerges from 2017 and 2018 without losing control of the House or the Senate, I suspect that, with the next election two years away, the president will feel freer to take controversial steps to end the Russia probe. And I doubt Republicans on Capitol Hill would try to stop him.
List Of Speakers Of The United States House Of Representatives
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The speaker of the United States House of Representatives is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution. The speaker is the political and parliamentary leader of the House, and is simultaneously the body’s presiding officer, the de facto leader of the body’s majority party, and the institution’s administrative head. Speakers also perform various administrative and procedural functions, all in addition to representing their own congressional district. Given these several roles and responsibilities, the speaker usually does not personally preside over debates. That duty is instead delegated to members of the House from the majority party. Neither does the speaker regularly participate in floor debates. Additionally, the speaker is second in the presidential line of succession, after the vice president and ahead of the president pro tempore of the Senate.
The House elects a new speaker by roll call vote when it first convenes after a general election for its two-year term, or when a speaker dies, resigns or is removed from the position intra-term. A majority of votes cast is necessary to elect a speaker. If no candidate receives a majority vote, then the roll call is repeated until a speaker is elected. The Constitution does not require the speaker to be an incumbent member of the House, although every speaker thus far has been.
Cbs News Projects Hickenlooper Wins Colorado Senate Seat Democrats’ First Pickup
Democrats picked up their first Senate seat of the night, with CBS News projecting former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper has defeated incumbent GOP Senator Cory Gardner. Hickenlooper decided to run for Senate after running briefly in the Democratic presidential primary.
Gardner was considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection this year, especially since he’s the only major statewide elected GOP official. Gardner has also been trailing Hickenlooper in polls leading up to Election Day.
While this is a victory for Democrats, they will have to pick up several other seats to gain a majority in the Senate.
Read Also: When Did The Republicans And Democrats Switch
Pelosi Says It Doesn’t Matter Right Now If She’ll Seek Another Term As Speaker Beyond 2022
 In a press call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down a question about whether this upcoming term would be her last as speaker, calling it the “least important question you could ask today.” She added that “the fate of our nation, the soul of the nation” is at stake in the election.
“Elections are about the future,” Pelosi said. “One of these days I’ll let you know what my plans are, when it is appropriate and when it matters. It doesn’t matter right now.”
After the 2018 election, Pelosi agreed to term limits on Democratic leaders that would prevent her from serving as speaker beyond 2022.
How Maine And Nebraska’s Split Electoral Votes Could Affect The Election
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As the race drags into Wednesday, it appears two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the nation that split their electoral votes. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska gives two of its five electoral votes to the statewide winner, with the remaining three going to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts.
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Pelosi Wins Tight Race For House Speaker
Pelosi, 80, is the only woman to ever serve as speaker.
Nancy Pelosi re-elected for House Speaker
The House of Representatives has narrowly reelected Nancy Pelosi as speaker with 216 votes, giving the California Democrat a fourth – and likely final – term leading the House.
Pelosi, 80, is the third speaker in the last 25 years to win with less than 218 votes, after former Republican Speakers Newt Gingrich and Paul Ryan. Five Democrats did not support Pelosi on the floor, and instead voted for alternative candidates or “present.”
After seizing the gavel, Pelosi said the “most urgent priority” of the 117th Congress will be defeating the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Two weeks ago, we passed an emergency relief package to crush the virus and put money in the pockets of workers and families, which is now the law. But we must do more to recognize our heroes,” she said Sunday. “Indeed, the pandemic has pulled back the curtain on even worsened disparities in our economy and our society. We must pursue justice: economic justice, justice in health, racial justice, environmental and climate justice.”
Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader, won unanimous support from the Republican conference garnering 209 votes on the floor.
Still, many new members were spotted with friends and family members around the Capitol.
Roy was shut down 371-2.
Grumblings From Within The Gop Could Cause Long
GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a pointed critic of Trump’s conduct on January 6, and alongside Cheney, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president for his role in provoking the Capitol attack.
Kinzinger, who was first elected to the House in 2010, was dismayed by Cheney’s removal from leadership.
“Liz may lose, and MAGA-lago may celebrate,” he tweeted on May 12. “But I predict that the history books of the future will not celebrate. They will say this was the low point of the Republican Party.”
The congressman has increasingly directed his ire toward McCarthy.
He added: “Liz stayed consistent. She didn’t look for opportunities to attack Jan. 6, but as conference chair she does press and is naturally asked about it. She responds truthfully. Kevin? He felt threatened, so instead of fighting for his job he went on offense against Liz.”
Kinzinger then said that McCarthy wants to be speaker so badly that he’ll do anything to appease the far-right Freedom Caucus, filled with bombastic Trump loyalists like Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Louie Gohmert of Texas.
“Kevin … made the determination that if he appeased the Trump crowd, he could raise money and take the credit, when he was up for speaker,” Kinzinger wrote. “He also assumes that people like me will vote for him for speaker, but the legislative terrorists in the Freedom Club wouldn’t, so he needs to be all in with them.”
Also Check: How Many Republicans Are In The 116th Congress
Why Democrats Struggled More Than Expected In Some House Races
Its too early to say exactly what went wrong for House Democrats, who broadly hoped to comfortably expand their majority.District-level internal party polling had shown Republicans with the potential to lose even more seats in 2020.
Many Republican strategists had resigned themselves to the possibility that their House ranks could decrease. Instead, Republicans were the ones making gains albeit modest enough ones to stay the minority party in the House.
Cook Political Reports House editor Dave Wasserman had some early thoughts on Wednesday: Just like Biden, Democratic congressional candidates suffered losses among Hispanic voters in key races. Democrats had bad nights particularly in Florida and Texas; they lost a couple of incumbents in Florida and didnt defeat a single Republican incumbent in Texas, despite making a massive investment in the state to target 10 districts.
Republicans also learned from their losses in 2018 and recruited top-tier women candidates, who were on a winning streak.
After last night, Republicans are on track to more than double their current count of 13 women, Wasserman wrote.
These outcomes all elude a clean narrative. Its difficult to say early on how much is based on strategic error, and how much is owed to the bizarre nature of this election year amid a pandemic that significantly hampered Democrats ability to do basic campaigning tasks like door-knocking.
Gop Chatter About Possibly Electing Trump As House Speaker Grows
Former Speaker Boehner Discusses GOP’s Future, U.S. Political Division | NBC Nightly News
A Fox host asked House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy late last week whether he’d support electing Donald Trump as Speaker of the House. The answer raised a few eyebrows.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was asked Friday about the possibility of Trump becoming Speaker of the House if Republicans win control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms…. “You know, I’ve talked to President Trump many times, he tells me he wants to be speaker, and I think he should be president,” McCarthy told Fox News.
It wasn’t long before McCarthy’s office clarified that he’d misspoken during the interview: McCarthy meant that Trump supported the California congressman’s bid for Speaker, not that the former president wanted the job for himself.
That said, the question that prompted the confusion didn’t come out of nowhere.
Steve Bannon, who used to advise the former president, seemed to get the ball rolling on this, recently touting a scenario in which House Republicans take back the majority next year and support Trump as their new Speaker. Under the fanciful hypothetical, once Trump held the gavel, he could start exacting revenge against those who defeated him, launching investigations into imagined scandals, and initiating impeachment proceedings against President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Soon after, Trump was asked about the idea and replied, “That’s so interesting…. Yeah, you know it’s very interesting…. It’s very interesting.”
Chatter in conservative media soon followed.
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House Republicans Vow To Vote Against Raising Debtceiling
U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
More than 100 House Republicans have vowed to vote against raising the debt ceiling. In a letter released on Monday, a group of 103 lawmakers said in order for Democrats multi-trillion spending plans to come to fruition, the debt limit would have to be significantly increased.
They contended a vote to raise the debt ceiling would imply consent to new spending. The lawmakers also made it clear Democrats alone were responsible for the effort to spend trillions.
We do not accept Pelosis agenda. We will not be on the hook for Bidens failures, and we sure as hell do not consent to this kind of reckless, wasteful, useless spending in our nations capital.
Gop Women Made Big Gains
While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.
GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats
Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11
District D+22.1
Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.
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New Yorkers Become First Black And Openly Gay Members Of Congress
 Tuesday night will be historic in part because of the diversity of candidates elected to the House. Democrats Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones, both of New York, are the first Black and openly gay members of Congress.
Meanwhile, Republican Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina is leading in North Carolina’s 11th district, a safe Republican seat. Cawthorn, 25, won the June primary against a Trump-backed candidate for the seat vacated by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows . He has come under fire for visiting Hitler’s retreat and for his campaign launching a website which included a racist broadside against his Democratic opponent.
Us House Speaker Pelosi Names Republican Kinzinger To Jan 6 Panel
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WASHINGTON, July 25 – U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday formally named Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger to serve on a select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump.
Kinzinger, Pelosi said in a statement, “brings great patriotism to the committees mission: to find the facts and protect our democracy.”
It was unclear whether she would name additional Republicans. Earlier in the day, Pelosi was interviewed on ABC’s “This Week” and said that other Republicans also had expressed interest in working on the panel.
Kinzinger, 43, is an Air Force veteran and an outspoken critic of Trump. He was one of seven House Republicans who voted with Democrats to impeach Trump earlier this year on a charge of inciting an insurrection at the Capitol.
He now joins fellow Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney on the panel as it prepares to hold its first hearing on Tuesday on the deadly attack.
House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, who initially said Trump bore responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack that brought the worst violence at the Capitol since the War of 1812, has since mended his relationship with Trump as the two attempt to win Republican control of Congress in the 2022 elections.
Representative Adam Kinzinger speaks during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 10, 2021. Ting Shen/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Also Check: Which Republicans Will Vote To Impeach
Its Not All Bad News For Democrats
While it was unquestionably a good night for Republicans, Democrats still held onto most of the seats they won in 2018 and will continue to be the majority party in the House. Thats in part because they retained most of the suburban districts they picked up in 2018.
Of the 233 seats that Democrats held coming into the election,2 186 of them were in districts that were predominantly or partly suburban in nature, according to density categorizations by Bloombergs CityLab. Thus far, Democrats have lost seven of those seats, but they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, theyve also won two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which reflect the partys strength in more populous areas.
Because of their relative success in the suburbs, Democrats kept many seats in places President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they wouldve lost their majority if theyd lost more than half of them . But theyve won 18 of them so far and picked up one from the GOP . In fact, more than half of Republicans gains have come in seats representing places that Trump won by a pretty sizable margin in 2016. Well have to wait a bit before data can tell us how congressional districts voted in 2020,3 but for now it seems many Republican gains were made by picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Also Check: Did Any Republicans Vote To Impeach
Mcconnell Not Troubled At All By Trump’s Suggestion Of Supreme Court Challenge
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Mr. Trump for falsely claiming that he won reelection, although he acknowledged that the presidential race had not yet been decided.
“It’s not unusual for people to claim they have won the election. I can think of that happening on numerous occasions,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky. “But, claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting.”
“Claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting,” Mitch McConnell says, adding that Americans “should not be shocked” that Democrats and Republicans are both lawyering up for the close races
CBS News
He also said he was “not troubled at all” by the president suggesting that the outcome of the election might be determined by the Supreme Court. The president cannot unilaterally bring a case to the Supreme Court, what it’s unclear what case the Trump campaign would have if it challenged the counting of legally cast absentee ballots.
McConnell, who won his own closely watched reelection race on Tuesday evening, expressed measured confidence about Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate. He said he believed there is a “chance we will know by the end of the day” if Republicans won races in states like Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump’s Save America Pac Released A Photo Showing The Former President Meeting With House Minority Leader Kevin Mccarthy On January 28 2021 Save America Pac Mccarthy Gets A Mixed Reception From Trumpworld
NBC Projects Democrats Take Control Of House | NBC News
Trump continues to hold immense sway over conservatives, and House Republicans delivered an easy victory for Stefanik in becoming the party’s Conference Chair last week, despite her having a more moderate voting record than Cheney.
Loyalty to Trump, which Stefanik displayed in lending credence to the former president’s grievances regarding the 2020 presidential election, is a true tenet of being accepted in his orbit.
Only weeks after the January 6 Capitol riot and Trump’s impeachment by the House, McCarthy made a sojourn to the former president’s residence at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, even taking a smiling photo with him.
However, according to a report from Insider’s Tom LoBianco and Warren Rojas, some loyalists in Trumpworld view McCarthy with a heap of skepticism.
A Trump advisor recently told the former president that McCarthy likely wouldn’t lock up the requisite number of votes to obtain the speakership if the GOP regains the majority in 2022.
“He’s left too many people unhappy and unsettled and time is not on his side,” the advisor told Insider.
However, a veteran GOP strategist with close ties to Trump who spoke to Insider noted that McCarthy was a stellar fundraiser who backed the former president in a very public way in ousting Cheney from her leadership role.
“He’s not gotten crosswise with Trump,” the strategist said.
Read Also: How Many Seats Do Republicans Need To Keep The House
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Pelosi Says American People Have Made Their Choice Clear In Voting For Biden
 In a letter to her Democratic colleagues in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Biden would be elected president, even though several states have yet to be called.
“The American people have made their choice clear at the ballot box, and are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House,” Pelosi said.
She also praised House Democrats for keeping their majority, saying that the House will “now have the opportunity to deliver extraordinary progress.” However, she only obliquely referenced the heavy losses by several freshmen Democrats who had flipped red seats.
“Though it was a challenging election, all of our candidates both Frontline and Red to Blue made us proud,” Pelosi said.
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Analysis: Donald Trump For Speaker Of The House
 Want to hear a crazy idea? Of course you do!
Let’s go step by step.
1. Florida gained another seat in its congressional delegation thanks to faster-than-the-national-average growth over the last decade.
2. Republicans control both chambers in the state Legislature as well as the governorship, meaning they will have total control over the redistricting process and where the new seat will be drawn.
3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is a BIG friend of former President Donald Trump.
4. Trump makes his permanent home in Palm Beach, Florida.
Which brings me to this exchange between the former President and conservative radio talk-show host Wayne Allyn Root late last week as recounted by the Washington Times:
ROOT: “Why not instead of just waiting for 2024, and I’m hoping you run in 2024, but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress, a House seat in Florida, win big, lead us to a dramatic landslide victory, taking the House by 50 seats, and then you become the speaker of the House?”
TRUMP: “You know, it’s very interesting. That’s so interesting. And people have said, run for the Senate, OK, run for the Senate, but you know what? Your idea might be better. It’s very interesting.”
Now that idea doesn’t seem so crazy, does it?!
Well, OK, it’s still very unlikely to happen. Mostly because Trump doesn’t really seem like the kind of guy who would be cool serving in the House after he had been president. Too small potatoes for him — even as speaker!
0 notes
statetalks · 3 years ago
Text
Who Will Be Speaker Of The House If Republicans Win
Weakening Of The Investigations Against Trump
Pelosi Says She Will Not Let Republican ‘Antics’ Interfere With Jan. 6 Committee
If Democrats dont control the House or the Senate, they cant initiate investigations of Trump or some of his more controversial cabinet members, such as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.
More importantly, after the 2018 elections, the electoral process will recede as a constraint on the president and GOP in terms of the Russia investigation at least for a while.
We dont really know why Trump, despite his constant criticisms of the investigation, has not fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or why he has not directly tried to stop the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law. I think its more likely that Trump understands that firing Rosenstein or making a drastic move to stop the Mueller probe would increase both the chances of Democrats winning the House and/or Senate this year, and the odds that the resulting Democratic-led chamber would feel compelled to push to impeach Trump. But if the GOP emerges from 2017 and 2018 without losing control of the House or the Senate, I suspect that, with the next election two years away, the president will feel freer to take controversial steps to end the Russia probe. And I doubt Republicans on Capitol Hill would try to stop him.
List Of Speakers Of The United States House Of Representatives
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The speaker of the United States House of Representatives is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution. The speaker is the political and parliamentary leader of the House, and is simultaneously the body’s presiding officer, the de facto leader of the body’s majority party, and the institution’s administrative head. Speakers also perform various administrative and procedural functions, all in addition to representing their own congressional district. Given these several roles and responsibilities, the speaker usually does not personally preside over debates. That duty is instead delegated to members of the House from the majority party. Neither does the speaker regularly participate in floor debates. Additionally, the speaker is second in the presidential line of succession, after the vice president and ahead of the president pro tempore of the Senate.
The House elects a new speaker by roll call vote when it first convenes after a general election for its two-year term, or when a speaker dies, resigns or is removed from the position intra-term. A majority of votes cast is necessary to elect a speaker. If no candidate receives a majority vote, then the roll call is repeated until a speaker is elected. The Constitution does not require the speaker to be an incumbent member of the House, although every speaker thus far has been.
Cbs News Projects Hickenlooper Wins Colorado Senate Seat Democrats’ First Pickup
Democrats picked up their first Senate seat of the night, with CBS News projecting former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper has defeated incumbent GOP Senator Cory Gardner. Hickenlooper decided to run for Senate after running briefly in the Democratic presidential primary.
Gardner was considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection this year, especially since he’s the only major statewide elected GOP official. Gardner has also been trailing Hickenlooper in polls leading up to Election Day.
While this is a victory for Democrats, they will have to pick up several other seats to gain a majority in the Senate.
Read Also: When Did The Republicans And Democrats Switch
Pelosi Says It Doesn’t Matter Right Now If She’ll Seek Another Term As Speaker Beyond 2022
 In a press call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down a question about whether this upcoming term would be her last as speaker, calling it the “least important question you could ask today.” She added that “the fate of our nation, the soul of the nation” is at stake in the election.
“Elections are about the future,” Pelosi said. “One of these days I’ll let you know what my plans are, when it is appropriate and when it matters. It doesn’t matter right now.”
After the 2018 election, Pelosi agreed to term limits on Democratic leaders that would prevent her from serving as speaker beyond 2022.
How Maine And Nebraska’s Split Electoral Votes Could Affect The Election
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As the race drags into Wednesday, it appears two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the nation that split their electoral votes. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska gives two of its five electoral votes to the statewide winner, with the remaining three going to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts.
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Pelosi Wins Tight Race For House Speaker
Pelosi, 80, is the only woman to ever serve as speaker.
Nancy Pelosi re-elected for House Speaker
The House of Representatives has narrowly reelected Nancy Pelosi as speaker with 216 votes, giving the California Democrat a fourth – and likely final – term leading the House.
Pelosi, 80, is the third speaker in the last 25 years to win with less than 218 votes, after former Republican Speakers Newt Gingrich and Paul Ryan. Five Democrats did not support Pelosi on the floor, and instead voted for alternative candidates or “present.”
After seizing the gavel, Pelosi said the “most urgent priority” of the 117th Congress will be defeating the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Two weeks ago, we passed an emergency relief package to crush the virus and put money in the pockets of workers and families, which is now the law. But we must do more to recognize our heroes,” she said Sunday. “Indeed, the pandemic has pulled back the curtain on even worsened disparities in our economy and our society. We must pursue justice: economic justice, justice in health, racial justice, environmental and climate justice.”
Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader, won unanimous support from the Republican conference garnering 209 votes on the floor.
Still, many new members were spotted with friends and family members around the Capitol.
Roy was shut down 371-2.
Grumblings From Within The Gop Could Cause Long
GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a pointed critic of Trump’s conduct on January 6, and alongside Cheney, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president for his role in provoking the Capitol attack.
Kinzinger, who was first elected to the House in 2010, was dismayed by Cheney’s removal from leadership.
“Liz may lose, and MAGA-lago may celebrate,” he tweeted on May 12. “But I predict that the history books of the future will not celebrate. They will say this was the low point of the Republican Party.”
The congressman has increasingly directed his ire toward McCarthy.
He added: “Liz stayed consistent. She didn’t look for opportunities to attack Jan. 6, but as conference chair she does press and is naturally asked about it. She responds truthfully. Kevin? He felt threatened, so instead of fighting for his job he went on offense against Liz.”
Kinzinger then said that McCarthy wants to be speaker so badly that he’ll do anything to appease the far-right Freedom Caucus, filled with bombastic Trump loyalists like Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Louie Gohmert of Texas.
“Kevin … made the determination that if he appeased the Trump crowd, he could raise money and take the credit, when he was up for speaker,” Kinzinger wrote. “He also assumes that people like me will vote for him for speaker, but the legislative terrorists in the Freedom Club wouldn’t, so he needs to be all in with them.”
Also Check: How Many Republicans Are In The 116th Congress
Why Democrats Struggled More Than Expected In Some House Races
Its too early to say exactly what went wrong for House Democrats, who broadly hoped to comfortably expand their majority.District-level internal party polling had shown Republicans with the potential to lose even more seats in 2020.
Many Republican strategists had resigned themselves to the possibility that their House ranks could decrease. Instead, Republicans were the ones making gains albeit modest enough ones to stay the minority party in the House.
Cook Political Reports House editor Dave Wasserman had some early thoughts on Wednesday: Just like Biden, Democratic congressional candidates suffered losses among Hispanic voters in key races. Democrats had bad nights particularly in Florida and Texas; they lost a couple of incumbents in Florida and didnt defeat a single Republican incumbent in Texas, despite making a massive investment in the state to target 10 districts.
Republicans also learned from their losses in 2018 and recruited top-tier women candidates, who were on a winning streak.
After last night, Republicans are on track to more than double their current count of 13 women, Wasserman wrote.
These outcomes all elude a clean narrative. Its difficult to say early on how much is based on strategic error, and how much is owed to the bizarre nature of this election year amid a pandemic that significantly hampered Democrats ability to do basic campaigning tasks like door-knocking.
Gop Chatter About Possibly Electing Trump As House Speaker Grows
Former Speaker Boehner Discusses GOP’s Future, U.S. Political Division | NBC Nightly News
A Fox host asked House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy late last week whether he’d support electing Donald Trump as Speaker of the House. The answer raised a few eyebrows.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was asked Friday about the possibility of Trump becoming Speaker of the House if Republicans win control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms…. “You know, I’ve talked to President Trump many times, he tells me he wants to be speaker, and I think he should be president,” McCarthy told Fox News.
It wasn’t long before McCarthy’s office clarified that he’d misspoken during the interview: McCarthy meant that Trump supported the California congressman’s bid for Speaker, not that the former president wanted the job for himself.
That said, the question that prompted the confusion didn’t come out of nowhere.
Steve Bannon, who used to advise the former president, seemed to get the ball rolling on this, recently touting a scenario in which House Republicans take back the majority next year and support Trump as their new Speaker. Under the fanciful hypothetical, once Trump held the gavel, he could start exacting revenge against those who defeated him, launching investigations into imagined scandals, and initiating impeachment proceedings against President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Soon after, Trump was asked about the idea and replied, “That’s so interesting…. Yeah, you know it’s very interesting…. It’s very interesting.”
Chatter in conservative media soon followed.
Don’t Miss: Are Other Republicans Running For President
House Republicans Vow To Vote Against Raising Debtceiling
U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
More than 100 House Republicans have vowed to vote against raising the debt ceiling. In a letter released on Monday, a group of 103 lawmakers said in order for Democrats multi-trillion spending plans to come to fruition, the debt limit would have to be significantly increased.
They contended a vote to raise the debt ceiling would imply consent to new spending. The lawmakers also made it clear Democrats alone were responsible for the effort to spend trillions.
We do not accept Pelosis agenda. We will not be on the hook for Bidens failures, and we sure as hell do not consent to this kind of reckless, wasteful, useless spending in our nations capital.
Gop Women Made Big Gains
While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.
GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats
Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11
District D+22.1
Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.
Don’t Miss: Can Republicans Vote In The Nevada Caucus
New Yorkers Become First Black And Openly Gay Members Of Congress
 Tuesday night will be historic in part because of the diversity of candidates elected to the House. Democrats Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones, both of New York, are the first Black and openly gay members of Congress.
Meanwhile, Republican Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina is leading in North Carolina’s 11th district, a safe Republican seat. Cawthorn, 25, won the June primary against a Trump-backed candidate for the seat vacated by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows . He has come under fire for visiting Hitler’s retreat and for his campaign launching a website which included a racist broadside against his Democratic opponent.
Us House Speaker Pelosi Names Republican Kinzinger To Jan 6 Panel
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WASHINGTON, July 25 – U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday formally named Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger to serve on a select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump.
Kinzinger, Pelosi said in a statement, “brings great patriotism to the committees mission: to find the facts and protect our democracy.”
It was unclear whether she would name additional Republicans. Earlier in the day, Pelosi was interviewed on ABC’s “This Week” and said that other Republicans also had expressed interest in working on the panel.
Kinzinger, 43, is an Air Force veteran and an outspoken critic of Trump. He was one of seven House Republicans who voted with Democrats to impeach Trump earlier this year on a charge of inciting an insurrection at the Capitol.
He now joins fellow Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney on the panel as it prepares to hold its first hearing on Tuesday on the deadly attack.
House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, who initially said Trump bore responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack that brought the worst violence at the Capitol since the War of 1812, has since mended his relationship with Trump as the two attempt to win Republican control of Congress in the 2022 elections.
Representative Adam Kinzinger speaks during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 10, 2021. Ting Shen/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Also Check: Which Republicans Will Vote To Impeach
Its Not All Bad News For Democrats
While it was unquestionably a good night for Republicans, Democrats still held onto most of the seats they won in 2018 and will continue to be the majority party in the House. Thats in part because they retained most of the suburban districts they picked up in 2018.
Of the 233 seats that Democrats held coming into the election,2 186 of them were in districts that were predominantly or partly suburban in nature, according to density categorizations by Bloombergs CityLab. Thus far, Democrats have lost seven of those seats, but they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, theyve also won two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which reflect the partys strength in more populous areas.
Because of their relative success in the suburbs, Democrats kept many seats in places President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they wouldve lost their majority if theyd lost more than half of them . But theyve won 18 of them so far and picked up one from the GOP . In fact, more than half of Republicans gains have come in seats representing places that Trump won by a pretty sizable margin in 2016. Well have to wait a bit before data can tell us how congressional districts voted in 2020,3 but for now it seems many Republican gains were made by picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Also Check: Did Any Republicans Vote To Impeach
Mcconnell Not Troubled At All By Trump’s Suggestion Of Supreme Court Challenge
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Mr. Trump for falsely claiming that he won reelection, although he acknowledged that the presidential race had not yet been decided.
“It’s not unusual for people to claim they have won the election. I can think of that happening on numerous occasions,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky. “But, claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting.”
“Claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting,” Mitch McConnell says, adding that Americans “should not be shocked” that Democrats and Republicans are both lawyering up for the close races
CBS News
He also said he was “not troubled at all” by the president suggesting that the outcome of the election might be determined by the Supreme Court. The president cannot unilaterally bring a case to the Supreme Court, what it’s unclear what case the Trump campaign would have if it challenged the counting of legally cast absentee ballots.
McConnell, who won his own closely watched reelection race on Tuesday evening, expressed measured confidence about Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate. He said he believed there is a “chance we will know by the end of the day” if Republicans won races in states like Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump’s Save America Pac Released A Photo Showing The Former President Meeting With House Minority Leader Kevin Mccarthy On January 28 2021 Save America Pac Mccarthy Gets A Mixed Reception From Trumpworld
NBC Projects Democrats Take Control Of House | NBC News
Trump continues to hold immense sway over conservatives, and House Republicans delivered an easy victory for Stefanik in becoming the party’s Conference Chair last week, despite her having a more moderate voting record than Cheney.
Loyalty to Trump, which Stefanik displayed in lending credence to the former president’s grievances regarding the 2020 presidential election, is a true tenet of being accepted in his orbit.
Only weeks after the January 6 Capitol riot and Trump’s impeachment by the House, McCarthy made a sojourn to the former president’s residence at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, even taking a smiling photo with him.
However, according to a report from Insider’s Tom LoBianco and Warren Rojas, some loyalists in Trumpworld view McCarthy with a heap of skepticism.
A Trump advisor recently told the former president that McCarthy likely wouldn’t lock up the requisite number of votes to obtain the speakership if the GOP regains the majority in 2022.
“He’s left too many people unhappy and unsettled and time is not on his side,” the advisor told Insider.
However, a veteran GOP strategist with close ties to Trump who spoke to Insider noted that McCarthy was a stellar fundraiser who backed the former president in a very public way in ousting Cheney from her leadership role.
“He’s not gotten crosswise with Trump,” the strategist said.
Read Also: How Many Seats Do Republicans Need To Keep The House
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Pelosi Says American People Have Made Their Choice Clear In Voting For Biden
 In a letter to her Democratic colleagues in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Biden would be elected president, even though several states have yet to be called.
“The American people have made their choice clear at the ballot box, and are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House,” Pelosi said.
She also praised House Democrats for keeping their majority, saying that the House will “now have the opportunity to deliver extraordinary progress.” However, she only obliquely referenced the heavy losses by several freshmen Democrats who had flipped red seats.
“Though it was a challenging election, all of our candidates both Frontline and Red to Blue made us proud,” Pelosi said.
Don’t Miss: Do Any House Republicans Support Impeachment
Analysis: Donald Trump For Speaker Of The House
 Want to hear a crazy idea? Of course you do!
Let’s go step by step.
1. Florida gained another seat in its congressional delegation thanks to faster-than-the-national-average growth over the last decade.
2. Republicans control both chambers in the state Legislature as well as the governorship, meaning they will have total control over the redistricting process and where the new seat will be drawn.
3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is a BIG friend of former President Donald Trump.
4. Trump makes his permanent home in Palm Beach, Florida.
Which brings me to this exchange between the former President and conservative radio talk-show host Wayne Allyn Root late last week as recounted by the Washington Times:
ROOT: “Why not instead of just waiting for 2024, and I’m hoping you run in 2024, but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress, a House seat in Florida, win big, lead us to a dramatic landslide victory, taking the House by 50 seats, and then you become the speaker of the House?”
TRUMP: “You know, it’s very interesting. That’s so interesting. And people have said, run for the Senate, OK, run for the Senate, but you know what? Your idea might be better. It’s very interesting.”
Now that idea doesn’t seem so crazy, does it?!
Well, OK, it’s still very unlikely to happen. Mostly because Trump doesn’t really seem like the kind of guy who would be cool serving in the House after he had been president. Too small potatoes for him — even as speaker!
source https://www.patriotsnet.com/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-if-republicans-win/
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fantabulosogamedev · 7 years ago
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Status Update: The Plan
Hey guys!  I’ve been writing this post for around a week now, originally as a video script, and it’s ballooned way out of control, so I’ve decided to give y’all the summary of it as best I can here in text.  Come by the Discord if you have any questions!
So here we are, t-minus 26 days before the demo releases, with no majorly new information since the last Progress Update.  What’s the situation?  Am I still on schedule?  The answer is...yes!!  However...
Part One: The Game Itself
Some major changes have come about in terms of my plan for the game as a whole.  Essentially, my original plan (16ish levels total) was just infeasible at this point, and would result in a development time bordering on at least 3 more years at max development speed -- while some people might be cool with waiting that long, I’m not!  I gotta eat, and the amount of money I’d need to fund 3 years of development would be really high to ask for a fresh dev like me.
So, here’s the new plan: The Fantabulous Game will now consist of 6 primary levels, along with a tutorial zone (Cragwell Woods) and a hub accessed after The Fightyplace.  Based on my estimates, this should reduce the development time to approximately 1-1.5 years if all goes as planned, thereby reducing kickstarter costs and wait times.  The levels will consist of a reimagining of the Shamrock path of LFG, featuring the Shamrock City, the prison Ballcatraz, the Shamrock Palace, and more!
To compensate for this drastic reduction in content, some positive changes will be made as well: the game will now cost $15 instead of $20, a Boycap miniboss will be present in each level, brief linear connecting zones between levels will exist to add cohesion and content to the world, and most interestingly the Fantabula sublevels will be expanded!
Previously, the sublevels were going to just be brief platforming challenges, with a gold sausage for a normal clear and a bludsausage for a speedclear.  However, the sublevels are now going to be expanded into proper linear levels, featuring collectibles of several kinds scattered throughout...as well as their own full-blown bossfight!  Why am I bringing this up now?
With only 6 proper levels in the game, I no longer feel comfortable offering the Fightyplace for free in the demo, as it now takes up a much larger amount of the game’s content proportionally.  So instead, I’ll be releasing The Fightyplace’s Fantabula Sublevel, with some tweaks and modifications to give the player as full of an experience as I can!  Unfortunately I can’t say for sure how long the demo will be, as much of it will come down to player skill level -- time permitting, however, I’d like to add a NG+ to it, where players can push themselves against much more powerful enemies.
Finally, in regards to the 8 cut levels: if The Fantabulous Game is successful, I plan on working them into two separate expansion packs to be released after TFG is completed, for around $10 each.  The first of these expansion packs would focus on the antics of a non-Shamrock race from Le Fantabulous Game, and (assuming expac1 was successful) the second would turn its sights to exploring exactly how the world of LFG turned into the one found in TFG.
Part Two: The Crowdfunding
So with that out of the way, I’d also like to talk about my plan for the game’s crowdfunding campaign!  I’ve decided to use a blend of the top options from the poll I posted several months ago: on, or shortly after, the release of the demo, I’ll be launching a Kickstarter campaign to fund the game, with a goal of $40k.  I’ll be putting the currently planned rewards and stretch goals at the bottom of this post, and would love to hear you guys’ feedback on what should be added/removed/adjusted.
However, those looking for Early Access, I hear you as well -- it was the first option on the poll, after all!  Here’s the plan when it comes to EA: the Kickstarter, like many others, will have a backer tier for beta access throughout the game’s development.  This backer tier will function the same as Early Access would, but would not be discounted.  However!
If the game is successful, and I decide to create the two expansion packs I mentioned above, both of the DLCs will be sold on steam via early access with a sizeable discount pre-release.  Considering the expansion packs would make up approximately 50% of the original content of the game, I think this is a great compromise between the crowdfunding options!  This will also apply to any future expansion packs I make beyond those two, such as the hypothetical Boycap xpac.
Part Three: The Specifics
As I mentioned above, I have a rough draft of my plans for the Kickstarter, and would love to have feedback on them.  Here they are:
Reward Tiers:
Get the game (EARLY EGG) - $10, 750 available
Get the game - $15
Deluxe Edition: Get the game, digital manual, & soundtrack (EARLY EGG) - $15, 750 available
Deluxe Edition: Get the game, digital manual, & soundtrack - $20
Beta access: Pay more to get access to the game throughout development, in the form of episodically released levels! (good for those who wished for Early Access!) - $35
Deluxe Beta Access - Beta Access with the Deluxe additions! - $40
Design a Spherefolk NPC: design a friendly Spherefriend or Shamrock to show up in various levels throughout the game!  Design includes clothing, skin patterns, and dialogue (all subject to developer approval).  NPCs would randomly appear chosen from a pool of all backer NPCs. Also, appear in the credits as a “Backerfriend” and receive the Deluxe Beta edition of the game! $80
Design a Spheredog Collectible: Design a Spheredog to show up as a collectible in one of the levels of the game!  Design can be anything subject to developer approval, but must maintain the basic structure of a Spheredog. Also, appear in the credits as a “Supreme Backerfriend” and receive the Deluxe Beta edition of the game!  - $150, 50 Available
Design an NPC: Design a unique NPC that Capboy will encounter several times throughout his adventure!  Design is up to you nearly entirely, but should remain reasonable within the boundaries of TFG’s universe and remains subject to developer approval. Also, appear in the credits as a “Legendariful Backerfriend” and "Character Designer,” and receive the Deluxe Beta edition of the game! - $300
Design one of Boycap’s mechs: Design a mechanical boss based on anything!  You get to decide how it fights and harasses Capboy throughout the level, but specifics and general design are subject to developer approval. Also, appear in the credits as an “Fantabulous Backerfriend” and “Boss Designer,” and receive the Deluxe Beta edition of the game!  - $450, 2 available
Design a Fantabula Boss: Design a boss encountered within The Fantabula!  The boss must somewhat match the level theme and is subject to developer approval.   Also, appear in the credits as a “Fantabulous Backerfriend” and “Boss Designer,” and receive the Deluxe Beta edition of the game! - $600, 2 available
Ultimate Designer’s Pack: Every reward listed above, including every single “Design an X” reward!  Also, get to be brought onto the developer team as a creative contributor, joining private discussion about plans for bosses, enemies, levels and more!  Appear in the credits as a “Creative Contributor” and every corresponding Backerfriend section, and receive the Deluxe Beta edition of the game! - $900, 1 available
Stretch/Funding Goals:
40k - Funding Goal
45k - Mutators -- upon finishing the game, the player can use achievement-unlocked mutators to affect future runs of the game!  Mutator ideas include having every weapon unlocked right away, randomly shuffled stats on weapons, randomly shuffled enemies, and more!  Mutators would be included with the game upon release.
50k - Boss Rush -- The player would be able to rematch any bosses they’ve beaten, including a time trial mode where they’re given a specific build that they must fight each boss with.  Good scores would unlock further achievements, unlocking costumes and mutators.  Boss Rush would be included with the game upon release.
60k - Second Quest -- The Second Quest would essentially be a hardmode, beyond the simple changes offered by NG+.  Unlocked after beating the game, the Second Quest would feature a brand new story set in modified versions of the main game levels, with brand new harder versions of every boss -- which would be included in the Boss Rush!  The Second Quest would be released as a free update after the game’s release.
70k - Local Competitive Multiplayer --Local up-to-4 player PvP multiplayer gamemodes.  Gamemodes would include 1v1 and 2v2 deathmatch, king of the hill, and a flag-football styled gamemode.  Platforming races, “gungame” styled fights, and more would all be further options.  The Multiplayer would be released as a free update after the game’s release.
If you’re still with me after reading that massive post, thank you!!  I greatly appreciate your devotion to the game if you read all of that, and if you just skipped down here I don’t blame ya at all.  Unfortunately though, I can’t really tl;dr this, so you’ve gotta bear with it.
With less than 4 weeks to the demo, it’s exciting to finally see these two and a half years of work start to come to fruition!  Thank you to everyone who’s been supporting the game throughout its development -- here’s to a successful campaign, thanks to you guys’ help!  If you have feedback and/or questions about this plan, swing by the discord to talk about it there, but if not...I’ll catch you guys on the 26th!
-Fantabuloso
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anakinsbugs · 4 years ago
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SMS Marketing Doesn’t Suck: Here’s How to Use it To Generate Revenue
New Post has been published on https://walrusvideo.com/sms-marketing-doesnt-suck-heres-how-to-use-it-to-generate-revenue/
SMS Marketing Doesn’t Suck: Here’s How to Use it To Generate Revenue
Did you know the average person checks their phone
160 times a day
?
Which is just one of the reasons SMS marketing no longer sucks.
Forty-six percent of people
say they check their phones before they even get out of bed.
The point is that people keep their phones handy and are always ready to use them to find information or check the latest social media updates.
Plus, open rates for texts vastly surpass email —
98 percent versus just 20 percent for email.
Mobile advertising works, but only if your message makes it to the consumer’s inbox, and only if your ad is mobile-optimized.
It’s the only way to steer clear of the noise and get a positive return on investment.
Most online marketers laugh at the idea of SMS marketing because they think it’s more regulated than email marketing. But that’s a
myth
.
Watered-down, mobile-targeting tactics are costing you conversions, clients, and revenue.
Meanwhile, SMS marketing is lurking in the background, waiting for you to capitalize on it.
Here’s why (and how) you should revisit SMS marketing to generate revenue.
The Many Advantages of SMS Marketing
Do you think
Instagram
has good engagement numbers?
Wait until you see what text messages get.
SMS Marketing Advantage #1. Texting Has The Best Engagement Rate of Any Marketing Medium
Emails can sit unread for days, phone calls can go unanswered, but text messages are almost always read immediately after they’re sent.
We already talked about the comparatively dismal open rates for email. The average CTR for PPC ads is even worse at
2%
.
The point is that SMS marketing is underrated and underappreciated.
But nothing great comes without its catch.
It’s neither ethical nor legal to send unsolicited messages with text-message marketing.
You need a written opt-in.
Fortunately, customers have an easy way to opt themselves in — or out — straight from their mobile phones with most text-marketing services.
Using
Attentive’s
patent-pending “two-tap” technology, customers can opt-in to a brand’s text messaging subscriber list seamlessly from their mobile website, social media, or other digital channels.
With one tap, a message will populate in their message inbox. They simply press send on the pre-populated text message to opt-in and receive a welcome message.
Here are some of the advantages of mobile text messaging.
SMS Marketing Advantage #2. It’s Trackable
There are countless texting platforms that allow you to manage your campaign all from your desktop.
Find a solution that will give you access to detailed analytics that lets you track each step in the conversion process, starting with the initial delivery and opening.
SMS Marketing Advantage #3.
You Can Leverage Interactive Content
Mobile messaging makes it possible to get feedback from your recipients quickly via a quick tap on the ‘reply’ button or a click on your link.
You can deliver quick, simple messages that direct subscribers back to your site.
For example,
Chipotle
excels at using mobile messaging to drive sales.
It’s short and sweet. It gets straight to the point with “free chips and guac” if you play their game.
Not a bad deal, right?
Especially since they have queso now, too.
Get creative with your text-marketing campaigns and take a page out of the Chipotle playbook.
SMS Marketing Advantage #4. Immediate Delivery
Overall, mobile marketing is fast. Once you press “send,” your message goes out instantly.
You can set up a campaign and have hundreds of clicks within minutes.
SMS Marketing Advantage #5. Add a Personal Touch
Sending a text message via your mobile device gives you an informal opportunity to personalize the message.
For example,
the Banana Republic
often sends text messages that include words like “friends” and “your.”
Using words like “you” and “I” is one of my favorite techniques for driving engagement.
The Banana Republic also does an excellent job of tapping into local events that are relevant to the recipient.
See? The opportunities with SMS are endless.
You can personalize your message, direct users to fun games where they can win coupons, and track every step of the conversion process.
Here’s how it works.
The Basic Components of SMS Marketing
The two basic components of a typical SMS-marketing campaign are the keyword and the shortcode. Here’s an example:
Text “POPCORN” to 555555 for our weekly list of flavors!
“POPCORN” is the keyword that gets placed in the body of the message.
“555555” is the shortcode that gets put in the recipient box.
When a customer sends that message, they’re “opting in” to your campaign. It’s as easy as that.
From there you can do a few different things.
Go ahead and send them a single, automated response to follow up and let them know what to expect next. Or you can just add them to a list that will send additional texts over time.
There are other ways to get customers to opt-in. Let them check a box on an order form or
submit their phone numbers online
.
Numbers received this last way have to be confirmed, however, since a customer could always enter a number incorrectly.
So before you add them to a campaign, you’ll have to confirm their participation with another message.
For example, you could send. “Text ‘YES’ to receive weekly coupons.”
Once they’ve opted in, customers can also respond to your messages with sub-keywords.
For example, sending the phrase “Hours” could trigger an automated text to send business hours, and “Stop” could remove the subscriber from the list.
Allowing customers to use sub-keywords gives them a way to interact with your business. It also enables them to opt-out of your campaign if they wish to stop receiving messages.
Once you’ve got the basics down, you can tap into creative ideas — like Chipotle’s game, which we covered earlier.
SMS Marketing Strategies to Try
Mobile texting tactics are diverse.
However, they should be pretty familiar if you’ve already run
social promotions and contests
.
For example, you can send coupons, drive traffic, or engage people through fun, simple games.
Here are some of the best potential uses for SMS marketing.
SMS Marketing Tip #1. Coupons and Exclusive Deals
Start by creating uniquely-generated coupon codes to prevent non-subscribers from taking advantage of your deal.
That way, people have to subscribe to save.
Check out this example from
Redbox
:
Redbox also takes advantage of “add to wallet.”
It’s giving you a simple one-click option to hook up your phone’s payment system with its offer.
Plus, the subscriber gets an extra incentive for taking this additional step. Customers don’t have to take an extra step to pay when they want to rent movies.
SMS Marketing Tip #2. Use Drip Campaigns
Drip campaigns
are automated messages sent based on specific factors, such as how long someone has been a customer.
Think of this as just another form of
marketing automation
.
You can create triggers or tailored responses depending on each individual’s status.
In the context of coupons, for example, you could send a 5 percent off coupon right after the subscriber signs up, a 10 percent coupon after three weeks, and a 20 percent off coupon after two months.
The longer they stick around, the bigger the potential bonus. So you’re incentivizing the action you want.
Best of all, you can schedule these to run automatically.
One will be sent as soon as a customer signs up or opts in. That way, you don’t need to keep sending individual messages.
SMS Marketing Tip #3. Poll Your Customers
Polls let your customers text different keywords to cast a vote.
With most services, you can
run polls
to collect responses over a period of time and graph the responses from your online dashboard.
These are relatively simple when you think about it.
However, they offer an interesting content piece.
You can use the results internally to improve your operations.
Or you can reuse the results in both blog and social content to leverage your unique, proprietary information.
The people who left an answer will also be more eager to find out what the eventual results were and even help you share them.
SMS Marketing Tip #4. Run a Sweepstakes Contest
You can have customers sign themselves up for sweepstakes by texting a particular keyword.
Once again, this is a standard promotion tactic.
You can select some winners from everyone who opts in. Or you can also give away a smaller prize to every person who texts your keyword.
You can even use it as an opportunity for cross-promotions.
Sterling Vineyards and Uber did that to give away free rides to Sterling’s customer base.
SMS Marketing Tip #5. Send Photos and Videos
In addition to actual text SMS messaging, you can also send photos and videos.
Here’s what I mean.
Let’s say you wanted to send an eBook preview or another image-style CTA.
Check out this example I created to see what’s possible with just a few minutes worth of work.
Want to create this type of marketing message? I’ll show you how a bit later in this piece.
Use Facebook to Grow Your SMS List
Instead of putting all of your eggs in one basket, use multiple channels to segment subscribers.
SMS and
Facebook Ads
are excellent on their own. But they can be even better when you use them together.
I recommend checking out Facebook’s
lead ads
to integrate with your SMS campaigns.
Lead ads are great for collecting data and information to build up a large subscriber base.
Here’s how to get started.
Head to the Facebook Ads Manager and create a new ad, selecting lead generation as your objective.
After you’ve set your target audience, budget, and placements, head down to the lead form option to set up your ad and collect phone numbers.
Here’s what the finished product should look like.
Now you get a multi-step form that doesn’t bombard the user with an instant information grab.
Instead, it uses multiple steps to warm them up to your offer.
Pretty cool, right?
Here’s what the second step of the form looks like.
Once you’ve configured your settings, you’ve got a simple way to collect phone numbers immediately.
That means you’re almost ready to start getting your first SMS campaign off the ground.
How to Automate SMS Marketing
Since we’re into the idea of working smarter and not harder, I suggest automating the SMSM marketing process.
Let’s face it: Marketing automation saves precious time you can spend
growing your business.
For example, you don’t have to manually export and import lead data. Instead, you can use a tool like
Zapier
to quickly build out an automated process.
Zapier connects with just about every marketing software you can think of, including MailChimp, Gmail, Facebook Ads, Slack, and many of the biggest CRMs on the market.
So if you get a few people submitting phone numbers in your Facebook lead ads, you can send them directly to your CRM, your messaging platform, and even various SMS marketing platforms. All at the same time!
Here’s a few of the texting apps they work with, or you can
search here.
Let’s dive straight in, shall we?
First, select Facebook Lead Ads from the workflow ideas list.
Next, select it as your trigger.
So whenever a lead fills out your lead capture form, it will trigger the following action that you want to set.
I’ll show you how to set that up in one second. But it could be anything from sending that lead form information to your CRM to connecting it to your SMS marketing software.
Now, let’s select this action once you’ve connected your Facebook account to Zapier’s workflow.
The action determines what happens with the data from your lead forms.
For example, you can instantly add a new lead to your SMS app of choice. Then you can even automate the first message that will go out to them after they’re added.
All of this automation saves you countless hours of manually transferring data and information.
Conclusion
Let’s be honest: SMS marketing can be kinda spammy.
It has evolved a lot over the past few years, though.
People are attached to their phones more than ever, and SMS marketing allows you to get direct access to your customers.
If you can get them to opt-in, they’re never going to miss an update or offer from your company ever again.
Especially if your SMS are
personalized for the recipient!
Find an SMS app
and start sending coupons, polling your customers, running sweepstakes, sending photos, and driving sales. The options are limitless.
Get creative with your text offers and
watch your ROI grow fast.
Have you received any SMS marketing messages that you just had to respond to?
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michaelandy101-blog · 4 years ago
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Why Consumers Subscribe and Unsubscribe from Email [New Data]
New Post has been published on http://tiptopreview.com/why-consumers-subscribe-and-unsubscribe-from-email-new-data/
Why Consumers Subscribe and Unsubscribe from Email [New Data]
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Think email marketing is dead?
Think again.. Email marketing is actually thriving.
In HubSpot’s 2020 State of Marketing Report, roughly 80% of marketers said their brand’s email engagement had improved in the last year. Our researchers also discovered that brands make an average of $42 for every dollar spent on email advertising.
mail marketing is still widely used and continues to offer many benefits to marketers. It can boost brand awareness, increase web traffic, delight your audience, and ease subscribers through the customer funnel.
While email marketing isn’t a new strategy,, many marketers still struggle to grow and maintain the size of their subscriber lists.
But you shouldn’t throw in the towel if you’re struggling to build your list of contacts. Like any great marketing strategy, you’ll need to get in the mindset of your customers to determine why they’re likely to subscribe — or unsubscribe — from your email list.
To help you think like your subscribers, I polled 400 consumers to ask them about why they’ve joined or removed themselves from marketing email lists in the past. Here’s what they said.
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Why Consumers Subscribe to Marketing Emails
The first question I asked consumers was, “Why do you most commonly subscribe to marketing emails or email newsletters?”
It’s apparent that consumers sign up for emails that provide direct value to them.
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Data Source
Below is a quick breakdown of what each result means for marketers, as well as examples of effective emails that leveraged their audience interests.
1. Deals, Discount Promo Codes, and Coupons
Roughly 28% of consumers say they subscribe to branded emails because they “want to be notified about sales, promo codes, or coupons from a company.”
It’s not shocking that emails promoting deals and sales are the top preference of consumers. By now, many of us have either subscribed to an email like this for personal use, or skimmed our inbox looking for promo codes before a big shop.
Although these emails are primarily for announcing deals or ways that your prospect can save money, you can still also use them for other promotions. For example, while prioritizing a sale, deal, or coupon code at the top of the email, you can also share news about a new product or blog posts at the bottom. Just keep in mind that your subscribers signed up to get the best bang for their buck, then continue to come up with ways to delight them.
Here’s a great example. When you subscribe to Postmates, you can ask to receive emails with promotions and coupons. Once subscribed, Postmates will send you semi-regular coupon codes and news about restaurant-specific sales:
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As a subscriber, I personally love the Postmates email because it stands by its mission to send me discount information. Whenever I consider ordering in, I search through my inbox to see if they sent any promo codes recently. When they do, I don’t hesitate to get my meal delivery from this app over other competitors.
2. Links to Valuable Content From the Brand
Not all audiences are looking to get the latest deals on products. Sometimes, people subscribe to emails just for the sake of learning new things. This explains why one-quarter of participants say they subscribe to emails because they want to regularly receive “a brand’s content (i.e. blogs, videos, graphics).”
Although creating an email for your blog posts or branded content might not seem like it will benefit purchases or ROI directly, these types of emails still offer a number of benefits that can impact the bottom line.
For example, those who subscribe will get to see content from you that demonstrates why your brand is a trusted voice in your industry. After seeing and consuming valuable content from you regularly, your company could be the first that comes to mind when a subscriber needs to purchase a product that you sell.
Additionally, although content-based emails might not focus on promotions, this doesn’t mean you can’t include one within the mix of links shared in an email. Aside from subtly including promotions in one of these emails, you could also link to blog or video content aimed at lead generation.
To give you an example of a content-based marketing email, take a look at HubSpot’s Service Blog email. Each day, the Service Blog sends the posts that were published the same day to subscribers. While the content is mostly informative, we occasionally mix in other promotions, such as the call-to-action to visit our new Website Blog.
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3. Company Announcements
A number of brands choose to use their emails to show audiences the inner-workings of their company. These emails might include press release-styled announcements, information about the staff, or posts from the company’s corporate blog.
While this content might not directly value audiences as much as coupons or educational content, it still helps brands to establish themselves as credible and successful to audiences who are interested in watching them grow. This might be why 16% of those I polled subscribe purely to get company-specific announcements in their inbox.
4. Mixes of Content, Promotion, and Company News
While 10% of participants selected “All of the above” as their primary email subscription reasoning, 14% chose “Other.” These results might hint that groups of email subscribers might enjoy different types of content in one email.
As you get to know your email audience, center your emails around the content you promised email recipients on their subscriber form. But, consider including one or two promotions that break your usual email norm to see if you can diversify your emails a bit more.
For example, if you have an audience subscribed to your company blog’s email, consider subtly including a coupon or discount at the bottom — after your blog content — to see if you can gain conversions.
5. Other Reasons
Interestingly, only 5% of consumers said they commonly sign up for emails to learn about new products from a brand. Additionally, although many companies will offer discounts when consumers sign up for their email newsletter, just 2% say they sign up for emails primarily for these tactics.
Although the minority of participants chose the options listed above, you might still want to consider experimenting with them in case they work for you, or your audience prefers a mix of content.
Why Consumers Unsubscribe to Marketing Emails
Once marketers build out their email list, the next challenge they’ll face is maintaining it.
And, sometimes, even if you have great email engagement or a winning formula for email success, you’ll see a random dip in subscribers.
Why could this be? Have people gotten bored with your content? Have they found another competing brand with a better newsletter? Are they just over email altogether?
The truth is, a bump in your unsubscribe rate could be due to super simple — and easily fixable — logistical reasons.
When I asked consumers, “What’s the most common reason why you unsubscribe from marketing emails?” most participants sighted reasons other than the quality of email content.
In fact, 51% say they unsubscribe because “emails come too often.”
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Data Source
Below, I’ll explain what frequency-related unsubscriptions mean for email marketers, as well as break down some of the other major subscription barriers.
1. Email Frequency
While 34% of those surveyed say they most commonly unsubscribe from email lists because “emails come too often. [More than once per day.],” 17% say, “Emails come too often. [More than once per week.]
Despite stats like those above, and the fear that too many emails will result in high unsubscribe rates, most marketers still send multiple weekly and daily emails. According to our State of Marketing Report, more than 50% of marketers send emails between three and eight times per week.
So, how do you stick to an effective email cadence without losing subscribers? Keep reading to learn about a few preventative measures.
Preventing Frequency-Related Unsubscription
If your audience begins to cite frequency as a reason for unsubscribing, or you suspect you might be sending too many emails based on the lower click or open rates throughout the week, consider dropping one to two of your regular emails, or combining two emails scheduled for the same day.
Once you consolidate your emails, see if your unsubscription or spam rates lower, while paying attention increases in engagement metrics like open rate or click-through rates. If you see your metrics fluctuate for the better, you might want to identify more ways to consolidate your brand’s email.
If you absolutely can’t consolidate your emails, make sure that you’re transparent about how many you’ll be sending subscribers on your subscribe form. This will ensure that all subscribers know what type of content and email frequency they’re signing up for upfront and might weed out audiences who will quickly unsubscribe.
2. Low-Value Content
Although content isn’t the biggest driver of unsubscriptions, it still can be a factor.
While 17% of participants commonly unsubscribe from emails that feel “spammy or over promotional,” 9% will unsubscribe if the content is “no longer valuable.”
The result above isn’t that surprising. When’s the last time you unsubscribed from an email that you used to love getting in your inbox?
Luckily, there are a number of tactics you can try to prevent your content from getting too stale or spammy.
How to Prevent Content-Related Unsubscribes
First, do a deep dive into your email metrics.
If you’re seeing low open rates, click-through rates, high skim-to-read-rate ratios, as well as unsubscribes or spam reports related to poor content, it might be time to audit the content you’re sharing in each email, test out new types of content, and avoid any sharing things that might disengage your audience.
Along with looking at hard metrics, you should also consider the content you’re creating for your audience before you hit send. Ask yourself questions like, “Is this email valuable to my audience?”, “Does it over-promote my products?”, “Does the content in this email align with how I marketed this email subscription in the first place?”, and “Is this content on brand?”
If you have a large audience with a number of different interests. You might also worry that some audiences will love the links you’re sharing in your email while others might be interested in other topics. If that’s the case, you can also consider email segmentation.
With email segmentation, you can break your list of contacts into separate lists to ensure that people with vastly different interests are only getting sent content that will interest them.
For example, since HubSpot Blog readers are primarily interested in marketing, sales, service, or website development, we have daily and weekly email lists for each of our blog properties. This way, if you’re a marketer interested in web development, you can subscribe to our Marketing Blog and Website Blog emails without seeing Sales or Service content that relates less to your field.
3. Unexpected Promotions or Content
Along with content that isn’t valuable, 10% of participants primarily unsubscribe from emails that don’t provide content they expected to receive.
Roughly 5% of participants say they most commonly unsubscribe from emails that they “didn’t sign up for” in the first place, while another 5% says they primarily unsubscribe from emails that “don’t offer content, promotions, or coupons” that the brand described when marketing the subscription.
Avoiding Unsolicited Email Content
As an email marketer, it’s your job to understand your audience and send content they’ll engage with. Meanwhile, consumers that sign up for your email will expect you to send them the valuable content they asked for when signing up. When you blast them with emails they won’t like or didn’t ask for, they might trust your brand a little bit less.
For example, if you market a daily newsletter that promises expert tips from thought leaders, blog posts, or coupons, and instead send semi-daily newsletters that promote only products with no discounts, your audiences might not be too happy.
As you manage your email strategy, remember what you promised your subscribers when they signed up. Focus on promoting links that are valuable and align with their interests, as well as your brand.
Because consumers don’t appreciate or trust unsolicited email in their inboxes, we don’t condone purchasing contacts from another company. Not only is this against GDPR mandates, but it could also annoy contacts, cause unsubscriptions, and hurt your IP reputation.
As an alternative, consider co-branded emails. With this strategy, you can market one brand’s email subscription and content in your email while they market your email and content to their subscription list. This way, the brand’s audience can choose whether or not they want to subscribe and might be less likely to remove themselves from your list after signing up.
Here’s a great example of a co-branded email campaign from HubSpot and Unbounce. Although this doesn’t directly market HubSpot or Unbounce email subscription options, it highlights great points about both companies and a project they’re jointly working on which could indirectly result in both brands gaining email subscribers:
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Tips for Winning (and Keeping) Email Subscribers
Email marketing best practices aren’t always the same for every brand. That means that it will take experimentation and practice to grow and maintain your email subscriber list.
Because building a list can be challenging in the beginning, it’s important to not give up when one or two tactics don’t work. Although you’ll want to personalize your tactics to your audience, here are a few overarching tips to keep in mind as you aim to grow your list.
1. Create email tactics and content that audiences will value.
First, and most importantly, you’ll want to develop and execute on an email strategy that prioritizes valuable content and avoids over-promotion.
For example, you could create an email with a mix of sales, coupons, and promo codes, or focus on promoting your most engaging blog posts. Or, if you have a giant audience with a few key interests, you could segment them by creating separate marketing emails and subscriber lists.
2. Market the most valuable aspects of your brand’s email.
To get people to actually see your valuable email content, you’ll need to market it in order to get subscribers. When you share your email subscription form on your site or social media, point out what your emails will provide to your audience. Will they include blog content, expert tips related to your industry, or special deals? If so, clearly state this in your messaging.
Here’s a look at how we promote the HubSpot Blog’s emails:
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3. Don’t just focus on just your products.
Yes. You are a marketer and shouldn’t avoid talking about great product offerings when you have them. However, too many product details in an email can feel spammy or over promotional.
When you promote your products in an email, try to include other content, such as links to blogs or videos to balance the email out. This will be even more important if you promoted valuable content rather than just product news when marketing your email subscription form.
In our 2020 State of Marketing Report, EMEA marketing manager Henni Roini emphasized why product promotion isn’t everything.
“Only the companies and brands that create human connection are going to succeed. This is extremely true with email. You might get short term benefits from very promotional content, but honest, human, and personalized content creates a following for the long term,” Roini said.
Want to learn more about email marketing? Here’s a guide on how to use email marketing to guide your prospect through the buyer’s journey. More interested in diving into email data? Check out this list of helpful email marketing stats.
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chezzkaa · 7 years ago
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Cinders - Chapter 28/36
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SUMMARY: Gareth knows and he’s covering his tracks, destroying all of the crews efforts. It’s time to know how to kill this son of a bitch, once and for all.
WC: 2141
Check out the Results of the Halloween Cinders Special Poll
Michael’s statement barely has time to register before your already moving, yanking your thick heeled boots onto your feet and collecting your blade, slinging its holster around your hip. Michael keeps talking, sensing your urgency while the three of you exit the apartment and work your way quickly through the hallways. “Geoff’s called everyone back in,” he informs you while Gavin trails close behind, your pace quickening as you all head towards the heist room; the coolness radiating off the concrete and seeping into your bare shoulders, “it’s not looking good.” “What does ‘not looking good’ mean?” you demand while powering on, legs and arms pumping as the men behind you try to maintain your speed, “it means everyone we were watching is dead except for one. Trevor and Matt have been locked out and denied access by advanced software and Ryan and Jeremy have already been called in for immediate interrogation.” Now you’re running, powerless to stop your legs from pushing you forward, the two men now panting behind you. Michael snags at your fingers between pained breaths, forcing you to stop and turn to him despite your desperation to keep moving, “We’ll go and get Ray.” You nod at Michael’s words, trying to break free and continue towards the heist room and the promise of answers, but the man’s face twists, “they brought that Garry fuck in.”
“Get Ray” is all you manage, giving his hand a harsh squeeze before tugging away and finishing the rest of your journey in silence, skidding through the kitchen and living quarters before rounding on the desired door. You burst into the heist room breathless and without a second thought, ignoring the gazes that fall on you to approach Jack, her eyes deeply concerned while she mutters on the phone. She doesn’t offer to a smile, instead ordering you to take seat by motioning to an empty chair beside her. Restless you can’t bring yourself to take it, instead pacing back and forth in front of the rest of the crew who watch you anxiously. Michael and Gavin enter the room moments later with Ray, your partner immediately making his way to your side. “Sah, dude?” he jokes weakly, trying to lift the heaviness he could feel draping itself across your shoulders, “what’d I miss?” You begin to explain but fall silence as Jack tosses her phone onto the table, head in her hands and breathing deeply to calm herself.
Finally she lifts her head and faces the group, impatiently pushing away her flaming hair to address the crowd of nervous onlookers. “Gareth knows,” she states into the surprised and concerned murmur of gasps, Lindsay’s eyes widening in panic while Michael reaches instinctively for her hand, “and he’s panicking.” Jack takes another deep, rattling breath, obviously shaken by the ordeal. “Trevor and Matt managed to alert us of his plans before he killed off the first two men we had eyes on,” she continues, “so we managed to extract Gary before he was taken out too. So,” she claps her hands together and turns to you with pleading eyes, “tell me the source came through and we can actually trust him.”
You rack your brain and try to dig up the important information you had managed to compile from Jon’s text journals, feeling your body burning beneath the flames curling up around your ankles. “I’ve been combing through the information since we got back,” you start, directing your words to the fiery red head in front of you, “but there’s a lot of it, Jack. There’s no way I’m going to be able to get through it all in a day.” “Well you’re just going to have to go back to the source and extract what you need,” she orders curtly, but Ray pipes in with concern and disapproval, “I don’t like the word ‘extract’, sounds kinda violent.” “It’s supposed to be violent,” she growls at him, “we need to know how the fuck to kill this bastard. So you’re going to go back there and beat the living shit out of him until he gives you an answer!” Her fist comes down hard on the table, the crew flinching away while her words sink in. “Oh hell no,” denies Ray, face twisted in disgust, the thought pressing against the morals he’d worked so hard to fashion. Jack however cares little for his moral compass, her eyes smouldering angrily “what did you say?”
“No,” you reply defiantly as her hand raises to rub her face, her patients wearing thin. She knew better than to get into an argument with you, but time was running out. “Look, Y/N,” she says in a strained voice, trying to reason with you as quickly as possible, “we don’t have time to play the hero here. Our method is guaranteed to get the most accurate information in the shortest space of time.” “Actually, that’s not true,” cuts in Ray, his body language defensive as his arms cross over his chest. You admire his bravery in the face of the vicious woman in front of him, her eyes giving away the fact she was struggling to remain in her spot and not launch across the table at him. “Yeah,” he continues while pulling out his phone and lighting up the screen, “it’s like, a fact that torture doesn’t work cus people just tell you what you want to hear to get away from the absolute agony you’re causing them. I know, weird right? Probably best to just call him.” He presses a few buttons while Jack fumes, tossing you his phone before she can begin hurling insults and orders at him.
Staring down at the screen you see Jon’s name flashing, the soft dials leisurely ringing as you press the phone to your ear, holding your breath; “Ray?” Jon’s voice is strained and raspy from the days he’d spent awake, confusion clear within his tone. “Nah man, it’s me.” Jack continues to stare daggers into your back while you turn away to watch Gavin shuffle uncomfortably until meg walks through the door, his face painfully relieved as he hugs her close, “we’ve got a problem.” Jon clears his throat, the sound of fabric scratching against the receiver as he repositions and you silently curse for interrupting what might have been the first time he’d slept in a week. “What’s up?” “Gareth knows” you reply, ignoring Jack’s loud protests as she tries to snatch the phone away, Ray shoving his body between the two of you with his hands up in a warning; face a dramatic grimace. “He’s started cutting ties,” you continue, moving away from your friends and snatching a pen from Jack’s floral front pocket before crawling to sit in the centre of the table with a note pad, “we’ve managed to get a guy out that’ll be able to give us the information we need, but after that we’re fucked.” You hear him pacing back and forth while he listens, and you can almost see the nervous hand shifting through his hair. You put him on speaker and place the phone on your knee, waiting quietly only to hear your heart thumping audible against your ribs, lungs constricting as Jack falls defeated into a seat. “You need to know how to kill him,” he finally concludes with a deep sigh, his voice muffled as he speaks through his fingers. “Y/N, I don’t know if the theory works. It’s just a concept, I haven’t tested it and no one has been able to confirm or deny.” “It’s better than the fuck all that we’ve got now,” you state, feeling his nervousness seeping through the phone and sending a chill through your body. “It’s not even a complete idea yet,” he insists, but your tapping the pen impatiently, “Will it at least slow him down?” “That I can guarantee,” he confirms while your attention flicks to Ray, locking eyes with him as he nods, “it’s the best we’ve got.”
“Okay,” Jon finally says in a shaky voice, “I’m going to have to come and meet you.” “I’ll message you our address,” you start only to be cut off by an infuriated Jack now rising from her seat and pointing an accusatory finger in your direction. This time its Michael and Gavin that rush to your aid, restraining the woman from either side as she spits angrily, disbelieving that you would give away the crew’s location to an outsider. You can hear Michael trying to calm her down, explaining with your blessing that Jon was one of the most trusted men they would ever encounter. Speaking louder you try to get what basic information you can, tossing your own phone to Ray so that he can type in the address and send it through to Jon, “what can you tell me about the process now?”
The sound of Jon exiting his home is accompanied with the static sound of billowing wind, a light beep informing you that he was struggling into his car. “The Egyptians were on the right track,” he states over the engine purring to life, “but it involves a lot more than just removing the organs.” “Okay,” you encourage whilst jotting down his words, refusing to meet Jack’s eyes as she reacts to Gavin’s attempts to calm her down, “can’t I just look it up in one of your books?” “You could,” Jon admits, “but maybe I want to see my baby sister.” “You know you’re on speaker, right?” “Ooh,” his joke falters while you try to ignore the shock on the rest of the crew, Trevor and Matt sharing a look before behind to their computers. “Hey!” you snarl at them, snapping your fingers to get their attention while you scowl, “don’t you fucking dare start researching him.” They try to complain but Ray just shakes his head at them, and eventually they back down.
“So what is it that you need to show me, that I can’t just find in the book?” “I need to bring you the materials,” he states, a car horn blaring loudly as he swerves, his angry cursing muffled by the sound of the car accelerating. “So basically the Egyptians used to remove specific organs during the mummification process and put them into canoptic jars,” he tells you while you frantically scrawl across the pad in your lap, “It was suppose to ready the body so that the spirit could return to it. But they got it backwards, more importantly the removal – from what I was able to find out – of certain organs and limbs, as well as the severing of specific neural pathways in the brain will hinder the regeneration process.” “That’s fucking gross” complains Ray, a look of disgust crossing his face while Jon laughs. “I know, it’s going to get messy, too. The whole point is to separate the main elements used within the process, like the brain functionality, larger limbs, and organs needed to maintain life before destroying them. Hope is that with the immortal link won’t work once it’s been sufficiently severed.” “Oh, this is gonna be so bad,” you groan, stomach flipping uncomfortably as you finish your notes and slide the pad across to Jack, of who has seemingly calmed down, “so what are you bringing?” “The jars and the butchers chart.”
Jon’s words cut off quickly, a sharp inhale of breath causing the hairs on the back of your neck to rise. Suddenly the room is filled with the sound of metal screeching as something collides with his car, his yelling forcing you off the table and towards the door without question. “Jon, what’s going on?” you demand while making your way through the base, “Jon?” “A car crashed into me,” he groans, voice quickly growing frantic as he becomes aware of the situation unfolding around him, “They’re here. His men are here. Oh god I shouldn’t have threatened them through you on the news this morning. Oh fucking FUCK.” “I’m on my way, I’m coming to get you,” you’re sprinting past the empty rooms and charging at the door, pulling into the cool night air with panic rising in your chest as the door slams shut behind you. “I’m down the street by the fucking smoking car, don’t let them see you,” he snaps and you duck into cover, body screaming as Ray pushes through the door seconds later. You grab at his wrist and yank him down beside you, body shaking involuntarily as you listen to your panicking and vulnerable brother. “The notes and jars are under the passenger seat,” he continues, voice growing low as the sound of other people chuckling cut through the receiver. “Please don’t do anything stupid,” he orders before the line goes dead, leaving you listening to the screams tearing through the air only six buildings down.
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gordonwilliamsweb · 3 years ago
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Many New Moms Get Kicked Off Medicaid 2 Months After Giving Birth. Illinois Will Change That.
The U.S. is the only industrialized nation in which the maternal death rate has been rising. Each year, about 700 deaths are due to pregnancy, childbirth or subsequent complications, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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This story also ran on NPR. It can be republished for free.
When someone dies while pregnant or within a year of childbirth in Illinois, that’s considered a maternal death. Karen Tabb Dina is a maternal health researcher at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who serves on a state-level committee that’s trying to figure out what’s killing these mothers.
The group’s most recent analysis found that about 75 women in Illinois die from pregnancy-related causes each year. Consistent with national trends, Black women are at greater risk than white women, and most of the deaths were preventable.
“It’s cause for alarm,” Tabb Dina said. “Our country is in a crisis in terms of unnecessary maternal deaths.”
In recent years, Illinois’ Maternal Mortality Review Committee has urged policy changes that would remove barriers to health care for pregnant and postpartum women. At the top of the list: Make sure low-income moms don’t lose Medicaid coverage after a baby is born. Some women lose coverage as soon as two months after giving birth.
In April, Illinois became the first state to be approved by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to extend Medicaid up to a full year after a pregnancy.
“This is tremendous,” Tabb Dina said. “One of the greatest risk factors for maternal deaths is lack of access to care: not being able to access the right providers and to be seen in a timely manner.”
Medicaid, the state and federal program mainly for low-income Americans, covers people with higher incomes during pregnancy — but most states kick these women off the rolls 60 days after they give birth. As a result, hundreds of thousands of women who’ve recently had a baby end up uninsured each year.
“Disruptions in Medicaid coverage results in higher costs and worse health outcomes,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said in a press briefing in April, citing a federal report on the consequences of Medicaid churning. “More than half of pregnant women in Medicaid experienced a coverage gap in the first six months of postpartum care.”
With the extension of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, mothers in Illinois with incomes up to about double the federal poverty level can keep their coverage for a year postpartum. Several other states — including New Jersey, Georgia and Virginia — are taking similar steps.
Although the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was passed to stimulate the economy amid the covid-19 pandemic, it also contains a less-noticed provision addressing the postpartum coverage. For the 12 states that never expanded Medicaid under the ACA, the law provides new financial incentives for them to make Medicaid available to adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level ($12,880 for an individual, $21,960 for a family of three).
In addition, the stimulus package offers all states an easier option for extending postpartum Medicaid coverage beyond the 138% income limit. Starting in April 2022, states can file a state plan amendment to their Medicaid program — a process that has fewer roadblocks to federal approval than the traditional route of applying for a federal waiver.
Maternal health experts say extending Medicaid coverage to a full year postpartum makes sense because pregnancy-related complications — physical and mental — aren’t limited to the first few months.
“Many [postpartum] health issues and health problems extend beyond the 60-day period that Medicaid is currently covering,” said Dr. Rachel Bervell, an obstetrician in Seattle and co-founder of the Black OBGYN Project, which aims to raise awareness about racial injustices in maternal health care.
A report based on data from nine states found nearly 20% of pregnancy-associated deaths happen between 43 days and one year postpartum.
Bervell clearly recalls learning about that statistic. “It was just so jarring,” she said. “It makes you worried about the 1 in 5 individuals we may be missing.”
Medicaid is the largest payer for maternity care in the United States. Black women are overrepresented in the Medicaid population and are also overrepresented among those who get kicked off their plan after 60 days.
Chronic diseases — like diabetes and hypertension — are more prevalent and less well-controlled among Black women, putting them at higher risk of pregnancy-related complications.
There are also structural barriers to health care, such as inadequate housing, transportation and child care. Many of these barriers stem from racist and discriminatory policies, like redlining, linked to worse health outcomes. Black mothers are also more likely to be denied medication for postpartum pain.
Racial disparities in maternal health outcomes are caused by racism, not race. So the problem can’t be solved, Bervell said, without addressing systemic racism in medicine and the broader society.
U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) said the racial disparities are unacceptable. She championed the state’s Medicaid change and is working on other policies to improve maternal health data collection and establish national obstetric emergency protocols.
“When you look at educated Black women with money, they still die more than less-educated, less-wealthy white women,” she said.
Kelly said she first became aware of the issue several years ago, when she met the family of Kira Johnson, a Black mother who died after the birth of her second child from obstetrical bleeding — one of the most common causes of maternal death in the U.S.
“I’ll never forget, her [older] son walked in and saw a picture of his mother on the screen. And he said, ‘There’s Mommy.’ And that just got to me,” Kelly said. “What a heartbreak.”
As the rate of maternal deaths in the U.S. has ticked upward, so has the incidence of “severe maternal morbidity,” according to the CDC. Each year, an estimated 50,000 women experience dangerous, even life-threatening health complications.
Jessica Davenport-Williams, a mother in Chicago, said that, after giving birth the first time, she hemorrhaged severely and had to receive blood transfusions. She was pregnant with her second daughter around the time Serena Williams and Beyoncé were in the news because of their own serious childbirth complications.
So she advocated for herself before her next delivery.
“I wanted to make sure that every physician was well aware of my history, that they documented information in my file that would be transferred to the hospital. And I was met with resistance,” she said. “They didn’t feel that it was necessary. I had to push for several appointments for that to happen.”
After her second daughter was born via cesarean section, Davenport-Williams hemorrhaged again.
“It became an emergency situation,” she said. “It just reminded me that I could have been one of those cases … that I [almost] didn’t make it.”
Davenport-Williams said her experience compelled her to become an advocate for maternal health.
“I don’t know if I will see the change for myself, in my lifetime,” she said. “But I definitely don’t want my daughters to have the same story or experiences that many before them have had.”
While extending Medicaid coverage is an important first step, efforts to prevent maternal death can’t stop there, Tabb Dina said.
Health care providers need to be educated about racial inequities in medicine, she said. Screening all pregnant and postpartum women for mental illness and making sure they get treatment will also help save lives.
And more patients with experience need a seat at the table in policy discussions, she said.
“We need to understand the real lived stories of our ‘near misses,'” Tabb Dina said. “What were their barriers? What were their complications?”
And then ask: What more needs to change so no child has to grow up without a mother whose death could have been prevented?
This story comes from a reporting partnership with  Illinois Public Media, NPR and Kaiser Health News.
KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.
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jobsearchtips02 · 5 years ago
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Phil Tetlock: Instinct and Noise Discount In Judgement
We talk about the position of instinct in resolution making in addition to efforts to work on noise discount and enhance judgement.
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Phil Tetlock: Instinct and Noise Discount
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Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and extra
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Nate Silver was really that was an correct forecast. It was not the fitting consequence. He did not name it proper there. However you possibly can’t say at 70% chance.
Properly, Nate Silver wasn’t within the, you already know, he is a well-known man. He is a star. And he, he was extra correct than virtually the entire polls, proper. He aggregated his polls. We aggregated his polls earlier than the 2016 election utilizing an algorithm not not like the one which I described right here, extremism, however he used that algorithm, he was developing with a chance round 90-95% of Hillary profitable, sampling at Princeton went public with 90-95% chance. Nate Silver checked out that.
He mentioned, , that is too excessive. I am frightened about correlated measurement error within the polls within the swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, if there’s correlated measurement error, and people days are fairly shut, one in all them goes towards Hillary, the others are prone to go as nicely. And he or she might have had a giant Electoral Faculty loss, despite the fact that she’s forward within the confidence vote.
He mentioned, I am not going to show my 95% into, you already know, 90% Trump’s gonna win, I’ll downgrade to 70 or 70% Hillary victory is near 95%. So he was really utilizing instinct and judgement to reasonable his algorithm. The algorithm would in any other case have directed him to do primarily based on the combination of the polls.
Defective polls and behavioral finance
Are you, it sounds such as you’re within the shopper camp on Danny Kahneman and Gary Klein on instinct. You depend on instinct slightly bit greater than Kahneman would.
When you have got two people who find themselves that good. I feel it is a good suggestion to do this.
So okay, really, can we speak since week since I introduced up Kahneman. Are you able to speak slightly bit about your work with him that you just’re doing on noise discount proper now? And from what I perceive,
That is the work he is doing completely individually from completely separate. I am conscious that he is doing that. Properly, we’ve got a mission that I could be helpful to him. Let’s have a look at, I feel the fascinating factor that you already know that I am excited in regards to the e book that’s working.
Danny Kahneman engaged on noise as a result of it strikes me such a invaluable complement to is a profoundly influential e book on bias corresponding to Pondering Quick and Gradual. Bias is in regards to the systematic error, proper? You are systematically beneath assured and systematically overconfident, you possibly can measure it, you possibly can see it. Noise is random. By its nature, it is very, very tough to watch. However there are methods of observing it by creating issues like noise audits, for instance.
So when you had been to take three of your monetary analysts, and present them the identical report, and ask them if this report had been true, what worth ought to this firm be valued at? That is virtually a textbook MBA kind of train on the finish if the three monetary analysts every provides you very completely different data from studying the identical report, and Assuming that earlier than it’s true, meaning you have got noise. Obtained it. And that is an error in your system that you just’d wish to suppress. And that occurs on a regular basis on Wall Road as nicely.
So some individuals would argue that the bottom hanging fruit from confirmed judgement perhaps noise discount, imply bias discount and from a Kahneman viewpoint may be very tough for that due to that meal or liar phantasm I confirmed you the bias both very, very sticky, it is far more pure to assume what a contented couple they’ll keep collectively then. [inaudible] kind of cognition comes far more naturally to individuals. You must pull up the ruler components liar, proper, determine which traces are longer, however you continue to see them. You continue to see them incorrectly even when after the  ruler is eliminated.
noise discount and the financial system
In order that makes it that makes that financial system combat pessimistic about bias discount, however he might considerably extra optimistic about noise discount. And it might be that noise discount would be the subject does your opponents comes out in 2020 years.
How do I current basic data to individuals with out getting them to simply migrate to the centre to set essentially the most, you already know, the centre of that path?
That is a very good query as exhausting. We’re engaged on that in a brand new IARPA match. I do not like binary questions I do not like Sure. No questions. I do not like sure, perhaps no questions. I want questions that do measure chance distributions and roughly constantly. And I feel you must put individuals forecasters on discover that making an attempt to realize this method and assuming that the fitting   centred every distribution across the right what we predict is the proper reply is an effective solution to lose their you do not need them to remove the implicit message that we created this chance distribution with the center in thoughts.
Obtained it so have randomness to the trail that we’re demonstrating in all these fundamentals.
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courtneytincher · 5 years ago
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EU Leaders Nominate Lagarde for ECB President: Summit Update
(Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders are back in Brussels for another crack at choosing a new commission president after failing to reach a decision during almost 20 hours of talks on Sunday and Monday.The package of appointments also includes the head of the EU parliament, the foreign policy chief and the president of the leaders’ council.Key Developments:IMF Chief Christine Lagarde chosen for European Central Bank presidentGermany’s Ursula von der Leyen chosen for the commission presidencySpain’s Josep Borrell chosen for the foreign-policy chief positionLeaders Chose Lagarde, Von Der Leyen for Jobs (7:12 p.m.)Leaders came to an agreement on the jobs package, according to a tweet by Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, Xavier Bettel. Choices include:European Commission President: Ursula von der LeyenEuropean Council President: Charles MichelEU Foreign-Policy Chief: Josep BorrellEuropean Central Bank: Christine LagardeWeber Quits (6:48 p.m.)Manfred Weber was officially the center-right EPP’s pick for the commission post for the past several months and opposition to his candidacy was one of the major sticking points in this negotiation.He withdrew his claim to the commission presidency this afternoon, his spokesman said in a tweet, removing another obstacle to the deal that EU leaders are trying to close in Brussels right now.Merkel Phones Home to Consult Coalition Partners (6:10 p.m.)Leaders have taken a break from summit talks so that Angela Merkel can speak to her coalition partners, the SPD, EU officials said.The SPD’s European family, the Socialists, were close to scoring a big win yesterday when Frans Timmermans was nearing the commission presidency post. The outcome is looking a lot less favorable for them with the current package that would put center-right candidate Ursula von der Leyen in the top job.Socialist Fajon Says Opposed to von der Leyen (5:49 p.m.)Tanja Fajon, a Socialist member of the European Parliament from Slovenia, says most of the group’s leaders in the assembly expressed “disappointment” with and opposition to the possibility of an EU summit deal in which German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen would become European Commission president.Fajon, speaking to Bloomberg News in Strasbourg, France, after emerging from a meeting of the Socialist group’s leaders, declined to speculate about the position that the group as a whole -- the second biggest in the EU Parliament -- would take on the matter. The Socialist members are due to meet at 6:30 p.m. in Strasbourg.European Council Closes in on Jobs Package (5:40 p.m.)Leaders are closing in on a deal, with German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen still at the top of the ticket, according to two officials with knowledge of the talks. Here’s how the latest iteration of the jobs package breaks down:European Commission President: Ursula von der LeyenEuropean Council President: Charles MichelEU Foreign-Policy Chief: Josep BorrellEuropean Central Bank: Christine LagardeEastern Members Back von der Leyen for Top Job (3:53 p.m.)Hungary’s government spokesman said that after “defeating Weber,” the Visegrad-4, which includes Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, would support German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen for the top EU job.Von der Leyen, Johnson’s Striking Similarities (3:48 p.m.)As strange as it sounds, the potential next heads of the EU and U.K. have similar backgrounds, although it seems to have pushed them in opposite directions when it comes to their views on Europe. The fathers of Ursula von der Leyen, the latest person discussed for European Commission president, and Boris Johnson, favorite to become British prime minister next month, both held senior posts in the executive arm of the bloc.Von der Leyen’s father, Ernst Albrecht, worked in Brussels from the late 1950s until 1970 (and she was born there) and rose to become commission director-general. Johnson’s father, Stanley, was a senior official in the commission’s environment department in the late 1970s before becoming a member of the European Parliament for five years.The similarities don’t stop there. Both also have a large number of children. Seven in Von der Leyen’s case. Johnson hasn’t confirmed how many he’s got, but it’s reported to be at least five.Stanishev, Borrell Mentioned for Top Posts (3:15 p.m.)The latest thinking on the appointments package would see Socialists from Bulgaria and Spain get two of the top jobs, according to two officials. Sergei Stanishev is being talked of as the next president of the European Parliament, where he’s sat since 2014, and Josep Borrell, himself a former parliament president and until earlier this year Spanish foreign minister, would become the EU’s foreign-policy chief. These are the only tweaks so far to the full draft list we published at 12:59 p.m., the officials said.Lagarde Being Touted for ECB President (12:59 p.m.)IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is emerging as frontrunner to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB, under the latest plan circulated to national delegations at the Brussels summit, according to several officials. The proposed split of top jobs is not a done deal yet and could well meet the fate of other proposed distributions circulated over the past three days. The draft plan is as follows:European Commission President: Ursula von der Leyen European Council President: Charles MichelEU Foreign-Policy Chief: Maros SefcovicEuropean Parliament President: split in two 2.5-year terms between Manfred Weber and SocialistsEuropean Central Bank: Christine LagardeEU Industry-Economy Commissioner: Frans Timmermans EU Budget Commissioner: Nadia CalviñoLithuanian Premier Floated for Top EU Job (12:39 p.m.)Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite is being floated by Germany as a new potential candidate for the job of European Commission president, according to two officials with knowledge of the talks. While she is likely to get the support of the Christian Democrats and eastern countries outside the political group, she may be problematic for some Liberals and Socialists because of her hard stance against Russia. If she’s chosen, the final package could still feature Socialist’s Frans Timmermans as foreign-policy chief or president of the European Parliament.Salvini Makes His Presence Felt in Brussels (12:25 p.m.)Italian deputy premier and populist strongman Matteo Salvini tried again to crash the EU top jobs talks in Brussels, undercutting the timid attempts at compromise by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.Speaking from Limbadi, a small village deep in the Southern region of Calabria, Salvini reiterated that Italy would oppose “any stitch-up that excludes all the others and has only the support of the French and Germans.”Salvini has reason to raise his voice: The latest polls in Italy show his League party would get 38% of votes in a new election, within shooting distance being able to garner an absolute majority in Parliament without needing any allies.Timmermans Throws His Chips in for EU Post (12:15 p.m.)Frans Timmermans missed the deadline earlier today for taking up his seat in the new European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, signaling that he is betting on getting something in the package of other EU jobs being negotiated by government leaders in Brussels. Timmermans was elected to the EU Parliament in May at the top of the Dutch Socialists’ list.Georgieva, von der Leyen Touted for Top Role (11:37)Germany’s highly-regarded defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, has been floated as a possible candidate for the presidency of the European Commission, while the group of countries opposing Timmermans’s bid are pushing for World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva, two officials familiar with the matter said.Both options tick the gender box and they come from the center-right EPP party, but they are outside the universe of formal candidates, which would make it difficult for the other parties in the European Parliament and some leaders to accept them.New names are in circulation and hopefully a consensus can be found today for the whole package, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic told reporters. “Today we will find a solution,” he said.Costa Says Leaders Too Tired to Close Deal Monday (11:10)Leaders probably could have struck a deal on appointing Timmermans as European Commission president if they weren’t so tired at their summit Monday, Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa said on his way into the summit.“Yesterday we truly were a very short distance away from having an agreement,” he said, adding that Timmermans’s candidacy remained “surely’’ a possibility.Merkel ‘Happy’ and Ready to Get ‘Creative’ (11:05 a.m.)“We’re going to go to work with a renewed sense of creativity and I think everyone needs to understand that they need to move a little bit,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters ahead of the summit. “In that case there will certainly be a chance and I think we have the responsibility to achieve results. In this spirit I’ll get to work, happily and firmly.”It’s unclear whether her cryptic comments about “creativity” and “the need to move” means that the Timmermans-centered package has been abandoned after yesterday’s reactions.Draghi, Merkel Not Available for EU Posts (10:59 a.m.)Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi, who has been touted by the Italian government for a top EU job, told Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte he’s not interested. And so has Angela Merkel, who has also been repeatedly approached by EU leaders for a role in Brussels.“These are two people that I esteem but two people who personally told me that they are not available,” Conte told reporters in Brussels ahead of the summit.Merkel’s Allies Feel Betrayed (10:53 a.m.)The European People’s Party decided against backing a Timmermans-centered package due to the back-room nature of the so-called Osaka Accord, two party officials said. Merkel, who’s seen as the unofficial leader of EU’s Christian Democrats, had previously told center-right leaders that the party line was to stick with Manfred Weber for the EU Commission presidency. This line was passed from leaders to their EU lawmakers.When the line changed without many of them knowing, center-right leaders and lawmakers felt they had exposed themselves too much backing Weber (both during his campaign and after the EU elections) to switch allegiances, the party officials said.From her side, Merkel told EPP leaders on Monday that she had Weber’s approval for proposing him for EU Parliament president and striking an agreement for another EU Commission president in Osaka.Leaders Weighing ‘Various Scenarios,’ Bettel Says (10:42 a.m.)Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said he’s had a lot of talks this morning and there are “various scenarios” at play. He also pointed to the chaotic performance by the center-right EPP, which up to this point hasn’t been able to agree on a strategy.“The EPP had a bug yesterday,” Bettel said on his way into the summit. “I hope that they did a reboot over night and that they can work constructively today so that we can come to a solution.”He also repeated a line Merkel said on Monday, that the council will have to work together for the next term, so they shouldn’t do anything that will disturb the institutional balance.“This is about the next five years, not about the next six months,” Bettel said.Visegrad insists Timmermans remains a ‘no go’ for them (10 a.m.)Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis tells reporters in Brussels that the nations making up the so-called V4 will not accept Frans Timmermans as European Commission president. Margrethe Vestager is a “first-class name,” he said, but insisted it’s not so much about names but about finding the person who understands their region and can push for the interests of his region. Timmermans “doesn’t understand our region” and is “a no go.”How the EU Parliament Complicates Things (9 a.m.)The main reason leaders want to reach a deal on the president of the EU Commission on Tuesday is that the decision is supposed to come in a package that includes other top jobs, including the president of the European Parliament. As per its own rules, the assembly is due to elect a chief in Strasbourg on Wednesday. If it goes ahead and picks its own head without coordinating with leaders, one piece of the puzzle will have been taken out of the equation.The deadline for submissions of candidacies is at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, which makes it an unofficial deadline for EU leaders to find an agreement on the full package of top jobs.One of the names discussed in the past among leaders for president of the assembly is German Green MEP Ska Keller. Her pick would be an acknowledgment of the gains that Greens made in May’s EU elections and would also tick at least one of the two top jobs that need to be filled by women candidates. However, in the latest package which was discussed yesterday, the job was allotted to center-right German lawmaker Manfred Weber.Keller threw her hat into the ring anyway, and if talks between parties at the European Parliament break down today, a left-of-center alliance could still catapult her to the presidency without the backing of center right.Merkel’s Allies Are Sticking to Their Guns (8 a.m.)The center-right European People’s Party -- largest group at the European Parliament -- said one of its number should be president of the EU Commission, and it wants to lead the EU legislature too.That stance is the biggest obstacle to the Timmermans-led package that EU leaders have been working on. Whatever the leaders agree has to be ratified by the parliament and without the EPP they would be operating with a wafer thin majority."Holding 2 positions out of many is not too much for election winner," EPP Vice Chair Siegfried Muresan said on Twitter last night.\--With assistance from Richard Bravo, Caroline Alexander, Ian Wishart, Gregory Viscusi, Marine Strauss, Milda Seputyte, Maria Tadeo, Slav Okov, Patrick Donahue, Viktoria Dendrinou, Jonathan Stearns, Lyubov Pronina, Jan Bratanic and Jasmina Kuzmanovic.To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Weber in Brussels at [email protected];Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels at [email protected];Nikos Chrysoloras in Brussels at [email protected] contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at [email protected], Richard Bravo, Zoe SchneeweissFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
from Yahoo News - Latest News & Headlines
(Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders are back in Brussels for another crack at choosing a new commission president after failing to reach a decision during almost 20 hours of talks on Sunday and Monday.The package of appointments also includes the head of the EU parliament, the foreign policy chief and the president of the leaders’ council.Key Developments:IMF Chief Christine Lagarde chosen for European Central Bank presidentGermany’s Ursula von der Leyen chosen for the commission presidencySpain’s Josep Borrell chosen for the foreign-policy chief positionLeaders Chose Lagarde, Von Der Leyen for Jobs (7:12 p.m.)Leaders came to an agreement on the jobs package, according to a tweet by Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, Xavier Bettel. Choices include:European Commission President: Ursula von der LeyenEuropean Council President: Charles MichelEU Foreign-Policy Chief: Josep BorrellEuropean Central Bank: Christine LagardeWeber Quits (6:48 p.m.)Manfred Weber was officially the center-right EPP’s pick for the commission post for the past several months and opposition to his candidacy was one of the major sticking points in this negotiation.He withdrew his claim to the commission presidency this afternoon, his spokesman said in a tweet, removing another obstacle to the deal that EU leaders are trying to close in Brussels right now.Merkel Phones Home to Consult Coalition Partners (6:10 p.m.)Leaders have taken a break from summit talks so that Angela Merkel can speak to her coalition partners, the SPD, EU officials said.The SPD’s European family, the Socialists, were close to scoring a big win yesterday when Frans Timmermans was nearing the commission presidency post. The outcome is looking a lot less favorable for them with the current package that would put center-right candidate Ursula von der Leyen in the top job.Socialist Fajon Says Opposed to von der Leyen (5:49 p.m.)Tanja Fajon, a Socialist member of the European Parliament from Slovenia, says most of the group’s leaders in the assembly expressed “disappointment” with and opposition to the possibility of an EU summit deal in which German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen would become European Commission president.Fajon, speaking to Bloomberg News in Strasbourg, France, after emerging from a meeting of the Socialist group’s leaders, declined to speculate about the position that the group as a whole -- the second biggest in the EU Parliament -- would take on the matter. The Socialist members are due to meet at 6:30 p.m. in Strasbourg.European Council Closes in on Jobs Package (5:40 p.m.)Leaders are closing in on a deal, with German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen still at the top of the ticket, according to two officials with knowledge of the talks. Here’s how the latest iteration of the jobs package breaks down:European Commission President: Ursula von der LeyenEuropean Council President: Charles MichelEU Foreign-Policy Chief: Josep BorrellEuropean Central Bank: Christine LagardeEastern Members Back von der Leyen for Top Job (3:53 p.m.)Hungary’s government spokesman said that after “defeating Weber,” the Visegrad-4, which includes Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, would support German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen for the top EU job.Von der Leyen, Johnson’s Striking Similarities (3:48 p.m.)As strange as it sounds, the potential next heads of the EU and U.K. have similar backgrounds, although it seems to have pushed them in opposite directions when it comes to their views on Europe. The fathers of Ursula von der Leyen, the latest person discussed for European Commission president, and Boris Johnson, favorite to become British prime minister next month, both held senior posts in the executive arm of the bloc.Von der Leyen’s father, Ernst Albrecht, worked in Brussels from the late 1950s until 1970 (and she was born there) and rose to become commission director-general. Johnson’s father, Stanley, was a senior official in the commission’s environment department in the late 1970s before becoming a member of the European Parliament for five years.The similarities don’t stop there. Both also have a large number of children. Seven in Von der Leyen’s case. Johnson hasn’t confirmed how many he’s got, but it’s reported to be at least five.Stanishev, Borrell Mentioned for Top Posts (3:15 p.m.)The latest thinking on the appointments package would see Socialists from Bulgaria and Spain get two of the top jobs, according to two officials. Sergei Stanishev is being talked of as the next president of the European Parliament, where he’s sat since 2014, and Josep Borrell, himself a former parliament president and until earlier this year Spanish foreign minister, would become the EU’s foreign-policy chief. These are the only tweaks so far to the full draft list we published at 12:59 p.m., the officials said.Lagarde Being Touted for ECB President (12:59 p.m.)IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde is emerging as frontrunner to succeed Mario Draghi at the ECB, under the latest plan circulated to national delegations at the Brussels summit, according to several officials. The proposed split of top jobs is not a done deal yet and could well meet the fate of other proposed distributions circulated over the past three days. The draft plan is as follows:European Commission President: Ursula von der Leyen European Council President: Charles MichelEU Foreign-Policy Chief: Maros SefcovicEuropean Parliament President: split in two 2.5-year terms between Manfred Weber and SocialistsEuropean Central Bank: Christine LagardeEU Industry-Economy Commissioner: Frans Timmermans EU Budget Commissioner: Nadia CalviñoLithuanian Premier Floated for Top EU Job (12:39 p.m.)Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite is being floated by Germany as a new potential candidate for the job of European Commission president, according to two officials with knowledge of the talks. While she is likely to get the support of the Christian Democrats and eastern countries outside the political group, she may be problematic for some Liberals and Socialists because of her hard stance against Russia. If she’s chosen, the final package could still feature Socialist’s Frans Timmermans as foreign-policy chief or president of the European Parliament.Salvini Makes His Presence Felt in Brussels (12:25 p.m.)Italian deputy premier and populist strongman Matteo Salvini tried again to crash the EU top jobs talks in Brussels, undercutting the timid attempts at compromise by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.Speaking from Limbadi, a small village deep in the Southern region of Calabria, Salvini reiterated that Italy would oppose “any stitch-up that excludes all the others and has only the support of the French and Germans.”Salvini has reason to raise his voice: The latest polls in Italy show his League party would get 38% of votes in a new election, within shooting distance being able to garner an absolute majority in Parliament without needing any allies.Timmermans Throws His Chips in for EU Post (12:15 p.m.)Frans Timmermans missed the deadline earlier today for taking up his seat in the new European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, signaling that he is betting on getting something in the package of other EU jobs being negotiated by government leaders in Brussels. Timmermans was elected to the EU Parliament in May at the top of the Dutch Socialists’ list.Georgieva, von der Leyen Touted for Top Role (11:37)Germany’s highly-regarded defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, has been floated as a possible candidate for the presidency of the European Commission, while the group of countries opposing Timmermans’s bid are pushing for World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva, two officials familiar with the matter said.Both options tick the gender box and they come from the center-right EPP party, but they are outside the universe of formal candidates, which would make it difficult for the other parties in the European Parliament and some leaders to accept them.New names are in circulation and hopefully a consensus can be found today for the whole package, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic told reporters. “Today we will find a solution,” he said.Costa Says Leaders Too Tired to Close Deal Monday (11:10)Leaders probably could have struck a deal on appointing Timmermans as European Commission president if they weren’t so tired at their summit Monday, Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa said on his way into the summit.“Yesterday we truly were a very short distance away from having an agreement,” he said, adding that Timmermans’s candidacy remained “surely’’ a possibility.Merkel ‘Happy’ and Ready to Get ‘Creative’ (11:05 a.m.)“We’re going to go to work with a renewed sense of creativity and I think everyone needs to understand that they need to move a little bit,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters ahead of the summit. “In that case there will certainly be a chance and I think we have the responsibility to achieve results. In this spirit I’ll get to work, happily and firmly.”It’s unclear whether her cryptic comments about “creativity” and “the need to move” means that the Timmermans-centered package has been abandoned after yesterday’s reactions.Draghi, Merkel Not Available for EU Posts (10:59 a.m.)Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi, who has been touted by the Italian government for a top EU job, told Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte he’s not interested. And so has Angela Merkel, who has also been repeatedly approached by EU leaders for a role in Brussels.“These are two people that I esteem but two people who personally told me that they are not available,” Conte told reporters in Brussels ahead of the summit.Merkel’s Allies Feel Betrayed (10:53 a.m.)The European People’s Party decided against backing a Timmermans-centered package due to the back-room nature of the so-called Osaka Accord, two party officials said. Merkel, who’s seen as the unofficial leader of EU’s Christian Democrats, had previously told center-right leaders that the party line was to stick with Manfred Weber for the EU Commission presidency. This line was passed from leaders to their EU lawmakers.When the line changed without many of them knowing, center-right leaders and lawmakers felt they had exposed themselves too much backing Weber (both during his campaign and after the EU elections) to switch allegiances, the party officials said.From her side, Merkel told EPP leaders on Monday that she had Weber’s approval for proposing him for EU Parliament president and striking an agreement for another EU Commission president in Osaka.Leaders Weighing ‘Various Scenarios,’ Bettel Says (10:42 a.m.)Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said he’s had a lot of talks this morning and there are “various scenarios” at play. He also pointed to the chaotic performance by the center-right EPP, which up to this point hasn’t been able to agree on a strategy.“The EPP had a bug yesterday,” Bettel said on his way into the summit. “I hope that they did a reboot over night and that they can work constructively today so that we can come to a solution.”He also repeated a line Merkel said on Monday, that the council will have to work together for the next term, so they shouldn’t do anything that will disturb the institutional balance.“This is about the next five years, not about the next six months,” Bettel said.Visegrad insists Timmermans remains a ‘no go’ for them (10 a.m.)Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis tells reporters in Brussels that the nations making up the so-called V4 will not accept Frans Timmermans as European Commission president. Margrethe Vestager is a “first-class name,” he said, but insisted it’s not so much about names but about finding the person who understands their region and can push for the interests of his region. Timmermans “doesn’t understand our region” and is “a no go.”How the EU Parliament Complicates Things (9 a.m.)The main reason leaders want to reach a deal on the president of the EU Commission on Tuesday is that the decision is supposed to come in a package that includes other top jobs, including the president of the European Parliament. As per its own rules, the assembly is due to elect a chief in Strasbourg on Wednesday. If it goes ahead and picks its own head without coordinating with leaders, one piece of the puzzle will have been taken out of the equation.The deadline for submissions of candidacies is at 10 p.m. on Tuesday, which makes it an unofficial deadline for EU leaders to find an agreement on the full package of top jobs.One of the names discussed in the past among leaders for president of the assembly is German Green MEP Ska Keller. Her pick would be an acknowledgment of the gains that Greens made in May’s EU elections and would also tick at least one of the two top jobs that need to be filled by women candidates. However, in the latest package which was discussed yesterday, the job was allotted to center-right German lawmaker Manfred Weber.Keller threw her hat into the ring anyway, and if talks between parties at the European Parliament break down today, a left-of-center alliance could still catapult her to the presidency without the backing of center right.Merkel’s Allies Are Sticking to Their Guns (8 a.m.)The center-right European People’s Party -- largest group at the European Parliament -- said one of its number should be president of the EU Commission, and it wants to lead the EU legislature too.That stance is the biggest obstacle to the Timmermans-led package that EU leaders have been working on. Whatever the leaders agree has to be ratified by the parliament and without the EPP they would be operating with a wafer thin majority."Holding 2 positions out of many is not too much for election winner," EPP Vice Chair Siegfried Muresan said on Twitter last night.\--With assistance from Richard Bravo, Caroline Alexander, Ian Wishart, Gregory Viscusi, Marine Strauss, Milda Seputyte, Maria Tadeo, Slav Okov, Patrick Donahue, Viktoria Dendrinou, Jonathan Stearns, Lyubov Pronina, Jan Bratanic and Jasmina Kuzmanovic.To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Weber in Brussels at [email protected];Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels at [email protected];Nikos Chrysoloras in Brussels at [email protected] contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at [email protected], Richard Bravo, Zoe SchneeweissFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
July 02, 2019 at 06:13PM via IFTTT
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patriotsnet · 3 years ago
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Who Will Be Speaker Of The House If Republicans Win
New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-if-republicans-win/
Who Will Be Speaker Of The House If Republicans Win
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Weakening Of The Investigations Against Trump
Pelosi Says She Will Not Let Republican ‘Antics’ Interfere With Jan. 6 Committee
If Democrats dont control the House or the Senate, they cant initiate investigations of Trump or some of his more controversial cabinet members, such as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.
More importantly, after the 2018 elections, the electoral process will recede as a constraint on the president and GOP in terms of the Russia investigation at least for a while.
We dont really know why Trump, despite his constant criticisms of the investigation, has not fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or why he has not directly tried to stop the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law. I think its more likely that Trump understands that firing Rosenstein or making a drastic move to stop the Mueller probe would increase both the chances of Democrats winning the House and/or Senate this year, and the odds that the resulting Democratic-led chamber would feel compelled to push to impeach Trump. But if the GOP emerges from 2017 and 2018 without losing control of the House or the Senate, I suspect that, with the next election two years away, the president will feel freer to take controversial steps to end the Russia probe. And I doubt Republicans on Capitol Hill would try to stop him.
List Of Speakers Of The United States House Of Representatives
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The speaker of the United States House of Representatives is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution. The speaker is the political and parliamentary leader of the House, and is simultaneously the body’s presiding officer, the de facto leader of the body’s majority party, and the institution’s administrative head. Speakers also perform various administrative and procedural functions, all in addition to representing their own congressional district. Given these several roles and responsibilities, the speaker usually does not personally preside over debates. That duty is instead delegated to members of the House from the majority party. Neither does the speaker regularly participate in floor debates. Additionally, the speaker is second in the presidential line of succession, after the vice president and ahead of the president pro tempore of the Senate.
The House elects a new speaker by roll call vote when it first convenes after a general election for its two-year term, or when a speaker dies, resigns or is removed from the position intra-term. A majority of votes cast is necessary to elect a speaker. If no candidate receives a majority vote, then the roll call is repeated until a speaker is elected. The Constitution does not require the speaker to be an incumbent member of the House, although every speaker thus far has been.
Cbs News Projects Hickenlooper Wins Colorado Senate Seat Democrats’ First Pickup
Democrats picked up their first Senate seat of the night, with CBS News projecting former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper has defeated incumbent GOP Senator Cory Gardner. Hickenlooper decided to run for Senate after running briefly in the Democratic presidential primary.
Gardner was considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection this year, especially since he’s the only major statewide elected GOP official. Gardner has also been trailing Hickenlooper in polls leading up to Election Day.
While this is a victory for Democrats, they will have to pick up several other seats to gain a majority in the Senate.
Read Also: When Did The Republicans And Democrats Switch
Pelosi Says It Doesn’t Matter Right Now If She’ll Seek Another Term As Speaker Beyond 2022
 In a press call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down a question about whether this upcoming term would be her last as speaker, calling it the “least important question you could ask today.” She added that “the fate of our nation, the soul of the nation” is at stake in the election.
“Elections are about the future,” Pelosi said. “One of these days I’ll let you know what my plans are, when it is appropriate and when it matters. It doesn’t matter right now.”
After the 2018 election, Pelosi agreed to term limits on Democratic leaders that would prevent her from serving as speaker beyond 2022.
How Maine And Nebraska’s Split Electoral Votes Could Affect The Election
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As the race drags into Wednesday, it appears two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the nation that split their electoral votes. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska gives two of its five electoral votes to the statewide winner, with the remaining three going to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts.
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Pelosi Wins Tight Race For House Speaker
Pelosi, 80, is the only woman to ever serve as speaker.
Nancy Pelosi re-elected for House Speaker
The House of Representatives has narrowly reelected Nancy Pelosi as speaker with 216 votes, giving the California Democrat a fourth – and likely final – term leading the House.
Pelosi, 80, is the third speaker in the last 25 years to win with less than 218 votes, after former Republican Speakers Newt Gingrich and Paul Ryan. Five Democrats did not support Pelosi on the floor, and instead voted for alternative candidates or “present.”
After seizing the gavel, Pelosi said the “most urgent priority” of the 117th Congress will be defeating the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Two weeks ago, we passed an emergency relief package to crush the virus and put money in the pockets of workers and families, which is now the law. But we must do more to recognize our heroes,” she said Sunday. “Indeed, the pandemic has pulled back the curtain on even worsened disparities in our economy and our society. We must pursue justice: economic justice, justice in health, racial justice, environmental and climate justice.”
Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader, won unanimous support from the Republican conference garnering 209 votes on the floor.
Still, many new members were spotted with friends and family members around the Capitol.
Roy was shut down 371-2.
Grumblings From Within The Gop Could Cause Long
GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a pointed critic of Trump’s conduct on January 6, and alongside Cheney, was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president for his role in provoking the Capitol attack.
Kinzinger, who was first elected to the House in 2010, was dismayed by Cheney’s removal from leadership.
“Liz may lose, and MAGA-lago may celebrate,” he tweeted on May 12. “But I predict that the history books of the future will not celebrate. They will say this was the low point of the Republican Party.”
The congressman has increasingly directed his ire toward McCarthy.
He added: “Liz stayed consistent. She didn’t look for opportunities to attack Jan. 6, but as conference chair she does press and is naturally asked about it. She responds truthfully. Kevin? He felt threatened, so instead of fighting for his job he went on offense against Liz.”
Kinzinger then said that McCarthy wants to be speaker so badly that he’ll do anything to appease the far-right Freedom Caucus, filled with bombastic Trump loyalists like Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Louie Gohmert of Texas.
“Kevin … made the determination that if he appeased the Trump crowd, he could raise money and take the credit, when he was up for speaker,” Kinzinger wrote. “He also assumes that people like me will vote for him for speaker, but the legislative terrorists in the Freedom Club wouldn’t, so he needs to be all in with them.”
Also Check: How Many Republicans Are In The 116th Congress
Why Democrats Struggled More Than Expected In Some House Races
Its too early to say exactly what went wrong for House Democrats, who broadly hoped to comfortably expand their majority.District-level internal party polling had shown Republicans with the potential to lose even more seats in 2020.
Many Republican strategists had resigned themselves to the possibility that their House ranks could decrease. Instead, Republicans were the ones making gains albeit modest enough ones to stay the minority party in the House.
Cook Political Reports House editor Dave Wasserman had some early thoughts on Wednesday: Just like Biden, Democratic congressional candidates suffered losses among Hispanic voters in key races. Democrats had bad nights particularly in Florida and Texas; they lost a couple of incumbents in Florida and didnt defeat a single Republican incumbent in Texas, despite making a massive investment in the state to target 10 districts.
Republicans also learned from their losses in 2018 and recruited top-tier women candidates, who were on a winning streak.
After last night, Republicans are on track to more than double their current count of 13 women, Wasserman wrote.
These outcomes all elude a clean narrative. Its difficult to say early on how much is based on strategic error, and how much is owed to the bizarre nature of this election year amid a pandemic that significantly hampered Democrats ability to do basic campaigning tasks like door-knocking.
Gop Chatter About Possibly Electing Trump As House Speaker Grows
Former Speaker Boehner Discusses GOP’s Future, U.S. Political Division | NBC Nightly News
A Fox host asked House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy late last week whether he’d support electing Donald Trump as Speaker of the House. The answer raised a few eyebrows.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was asked Friday about the possibility of Trump becoming Speaker of the House if Republicans win control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms…. “You know, I’ve talked to President Trump many times, he tells me he wants to be speaker, and I think he should be president,” McCarthy told Fox News.
It wasn’t long before McCarthy’s office clarified that he’d misspoken during the interview: McCarthy meant that Trump supported the California congressman’s bid for Speaker, not that the former president wanted the job for himself.
That said, the question that prompted the confusion didn’t come out of nowhere.
Steve Bannon, who used to advise the former president, seemed to get the ball rolling on this, recently touting a scenario in which House Republicans take back the majority next year and support Trump as their new Speaker. Under the fanciful hypothetical, once Trump held the gavel, he could start exacting revenge against those who defeated him, launching investigations into imagined scandals, and initiating impeachment proceedings against President Biden and Vice President Harris.
Soon after, Trump was asked about the idea and replied, “That’s so interesting…. Yeah, you know it’s very interesting…. It’s very interesting.”
Chatter in conservative media soon followed.
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House Republicans Vow To Vote Against Raising Debtceiling
U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
More than 100 House Republicans have vowed to vote against raising the debt ceiling. In a letter released on Monday, a group of 103 lawmakers said in order for Democrats multi-trillion spending plans to come to fruition, the debt limit would have to be significantly increased.
They contended a vote to raise the debt ceiling would imply consent to new spending. The lawmakers also made it clear Democrats alone were responsible for the effort to spend trillions.
We do not accept Pelosis agenda. We will not be on the hook for Bidens failures, and we sure as hell do not consent to this kind of reckless, wasteful, useless spending in our nations capital.
Gop Women Made Big Gains
While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.
GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats
Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11
District D+22.1
Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.
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New Yorkers Become First Black And Openly Gay Members Of Congress
 Tuesday night will be historic in part because of the diversity of candidates elected to the House. Democrats Ritchie Torres and Mondaire Jones, both of New York, are the first Black and openly gay members of Congress.
Meanwhile, Republican Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina is leading in North Carolina’s 11th district, a safe Republican seat. Cawthorn, 25, won the June primary against a Trump-backed candidate for the seat vacated by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows . He has come under fire for visiting Hitler’s retreat and for his campaign launching a website which included a racist broadside against his Democratic opponent.
Us House Speaker Pelosi Names Republican Kinzinger To Jan 6 Panel
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WASHINGTON, July 25 – U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday formally named Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger to serve on a select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump.
Kinzinger, Pelosi said in a statement, “brings great patriotism to the committees mission: to find the facts and protect our democracy.”
It was unclear whether she would name additional Republicans. Earlier in the day, Pelosi was interviewed on ABC’s “This Week” and said that other Republicans also had expressed interest in working on the panel.
Kinzinger, 43, is an Air Force veteran and an outspoken critic of Trump. He was one of seven House Republicans who voted with Democrats to impeach Trump earlier this year on a charge of inciting an insurrection at the Capitol.
He now joins fellow Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney on the panel as it prepares to hold its first hearing on Tuesday on the deadly attack.
House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, who initially said Trump bore responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack that brought the worst violence at the Capitol since the War of 1812, has since mended his relationship with Trump as the two attempt to win Republican control of Congress in the 2022 elections.
Representative Adam Kinzinger speaks during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 10, 2021. Ting Shen/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Also Check: Which Republicans Will Vote To Impeach
Its Not All Bad News For Democrats
While it was unquestionably a good night for Republicans, Democrats still held onto most of the seats they won in 2018 and will continue to be the majority party in the House. Thats in part because they retained most of the suburban districts they picked up in 2018.
Of the 233 seats that Democrats held coming into the election,2 186 of them were in districts that were predominantly or partly suburban in nature, according to density categorizations by Bloombergs CityLab. Thus far, Democrats have lost seven of those seats, but they captured one GOP-held suburban seat around Atlanta. And thanks to redistricting, theyve also won two formerly Republican seats around Greensboro and Raleigh in North Carolina, which reflect the partys strength in more populous areas.
Because of their relative success in the suburbs, Democrats kept many seats in places President Trump won in 2016. Coming into the election, Democrats held 30 seats in districts Trump carried in 2016, and they wouldve lost their majority if theyd lost more than half of them . But theyve won 18 of them so far and picked up one from the GOP . In fact, more than half of Republicans gains have come in seats representing places that Trump won by a pretty sizable margin in 2016. Well have to wait a bit before data can tell us how congressional districts voted in 2020,3 but for now it seems many Republican gains were made by picking off the lowest-hanging fruit.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
 With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. 
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Also Check: Did Any Republicans Vote To Impeach
Mcconnell Not Troubled At All By Trump’s Suggestion Of Supreme Court Challenge
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defended Mr. Trump for falsely claiming that he won reelection, although he acknowledged that the presidential race had not yet been decided.
“It’s not unusual for people to claim they have won the election. I can think of that happening on numerous occasions,” McConnell told reporters in Kentucky. “But, claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting.”
“Claiming to win the election is different from finishing the counting,” Mitch McConnell says, adding that Americans “should not be shocked” that Democrats and Republicans are both lawyering up for the close races
CBS News
He also said he was “not troubled at all” by the president suggesting that the outcome of the election might be determined by the Supreme Court. The president cannot unilaterally bring a case to the Supreme Court, what it’s unclear what case the Trump campaign would have if it challenged the counting of legally cast absentee ballots.
McConnell, who won his own closely watched reelection race on Tuesday evening, expressed measured confidence about Republicans maintaining their majority in the Senate. He said he believed there is a “chance we will know by the end of the day” if Republicans won races in states like Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump’s Save America Pac Released A Photo Showing The Former President Meeting With House Minority Leader Kevin Mccarthy On January 28 2021 Save America Pac Mccarthy Gets A Mixed Reception From Trumpworld
NBC Projects Democrats Take Control Of House | NBC News
Trump continues to hold immense sway over conservatives, and House Republicans delivered an easy victory for Stefanik in becoming the party’s Conference Chair last week, despite her having a more moderate voting record than Cheney.
Loyalty to Trump, which Stefanik displayed in lending credence to the former president’s grievances regarding the 2020 presidential election, is a true tenet of being accepted in his orbit.
Only weeks after the January 6 Capitol riot and Trump’s impeachment by the House, McCarthy made a sojourn to the former president’s residence at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, even taking a smiling photo with him.
However, according to a report from Insider’s Tom LoBianco and Warren Rojas, some loyalists in Trumpworld view McCarthy with a heap of skepticism.
A Trump advisor recently told the former president that McCarthy likely wouldn’t lock up the requisite number of votes to obtain the speakership if the GOP regains the majority in 2022.
“He’s left too many people unhappy and unsettled and time is not on his side,” the advisor told Insider.
However, a veteran GOP strategist with close ties to Trump who spoke to Insider noted that McCarthy was a stellar fundraiser who backed the former president in a very public way in ousting Cheney from her leadership role.
“He’s not gotten crosswise with Trump,” the strategist said.
Read Also: How Many Seats Do Republicans Need To Keep The House
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Pelosi Says American People Have Made Their Choice Clear In Voting For Biden
 In a letter to her Democratic colleagues in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Biden would be elected president, even though several states have yet to be called.
“The American people have made their choice clear at the ballot box, and are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House,” Pelosi said.
She also praised House Democrats for keeping their majority, saying that the House will “now have the opportunity to deliver extraordinary progress.” However, she only obliquely referenced the heavy losses by several freshmen Democrats who had flipped red seats.
“Though it was a challenging election, all of our candidates both Frontline and Red to Blue made us proud,” Pelosi said.
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Analysis: Donald Trump For Speaker Of The House
 Want to hear a crazy idea? Of course you do!
Let’s go step by step.
1. Florida gained another seat in its congressional delegation thanks to faster-than-the-national-average growth over the last decade.
2. Republicans control both chambers in the state Legislature as well as the governorship, meaning they will have total control over the redistricting process and where the new seat will be drawn.
3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is a BIG friend of former President Donald Trump.
4. Trump makes his permanent home in Palm Beach, Florida.
Which brings me to this exchange between the former President and conservative radio talk-show host Wayne Allyn Root late last week as recounted by the Washington Times:
ROOT: “Why not instead of just waiting for 2024, and I’m hoping you run in 2024, but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress, a House seat in Florida, win big, lead us to a dramatic landslide victory, taking the House by 50 seats, and then you become the speaker of the House?”
TRUMP: “You know, it’s very interesting. That’s so interesting. And people have said, run for the Senate, OK, run for the Senate, but you know what? Your idea might be better. It’s very interesting.”
Now that idea doesn’t seem so crazy, does it?!
Well, OK, it’s still very unlikely to happen. Mostly because Trump doesn’t really seem like the kind of guy who would be cool serving in the House after he had been president. Too small potatoes for him — even as speaker!
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urbanwronski · 7 years ago
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And it is money that has come out of the pockets of some of the poorest people. It is money that comes from human hardship. These machines are located in pubs and clubs in areas of economic disadvantage deliberately. And that is why we have fought so hard, so hard, to get poker machines out of pubs and clubs in Tasmania. We know they are lethal and toxic machines. Rebecca White Tasmanian Labor leader
Like rabbits caught in the headlights of a juggernaut of pro-pokie Liberal Mad-men, Tasmanians vote, Saturday, mostly to do as they are told. It’s a win for pokies’ owners by pokies’ owners. Bugger the people. Yet it’s not the crushing victory being sold on mainstream media. What is clear by Sunday is the Liberals will stay in power.
Premier Will Hodgman’s government wins 13 of the 25 state lower house seats on Saturday, a loss of two, or down 0.8 %, but still enough for his Liberal Party to govern in its own right in a large late surge over the last month.
Labor’s vote is up 5.4% with 84% of the vote counted Sunday. The Hare-Clark, Robson system means that several seats remain in doubt in contests between candidates from the same party. What is not in doubt is the size of the Liberal war chest which some say is ten times Labor’s. Did wealthy Liberals donors help the party buy its victory?
Bedazzled by bill-boards, newspapers and TV screens, in a saturation ad blitzkrieg, voters succumb to sentimental slogans such as “love your local” and fear of paternalism, the dreaded spectre of Labor-Green despotism.
And the jobs’ lies. “I’ll have to go to the mainland for a hospitality career if Labor gets in,” whinges a teenager on the radio, a model of self-pitying misery and entitlement, already a perfect fit for any career in customer service.
Bad news, kid, the “hospitality industry” is rife with wage theft and exploitation. Better you should stay at school.
“Whether it’s a big, small or medium business, the most common worker is young, unskilled or a migrant so really it’s a hotpot for exploitation. When you put all these things in the mix, people aren’t aware of their rights — people are desperate to work, and it’s a recipe for exploitation,” says Shine Lawyers employment law expert, Will Barsby.
When it comes to wages, Tasmanian workers share the predicament of all Australia’s workers. Wage earners’ share of the national pie has shrunk dramatically to the lowest point since the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) began recording this data in 1959.
Roy Morgan reports that our workforce is 13,410,000 comprised of employed and unemployed, up a whopping 518,000 on a year ago, a context omitted in Scott Morrison’s misleading claim that “2017 was a year of extraordinary jobs growth in Australia, over 400,000 jobs created in the year”.
1.312 million Australians were unemployed (9.8% of the workforce); an increase of 126,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago, but Morrison chooses to hide this from us in the hope we are all mugs. ScoMo or Michaelia Cash never talk about numbers of unemployed.
Furthermore, despite Liberal shills on ABC and mainstream media who pretend there is some miraculous recovery happening ,Tasmanians are in fact more likely to be out of work or underemployed than workers in any other state.
Tasmania’s unemployment rate is 10.7% while 11.5% of the workforce is under-employment 11.5%. 22.2%, or one in five, Tassie workers have either no work or not enough. Abolishing pokies is not going to cost 5000 jobs – as claimed by Hodgman’s Liberals – when there are only 370 workers in the industry – or about 1000 in gambling overall. And other jobs are likely to be created as a result of money not spent gambling.
The new gaming laws will bring a windfall for casinos reports The Australia Institute, cutting their taxes in half if they are put on the Federal group rate. Taxes for pubs and clubs, on the other hand, will rise by $10 million. Yet, in a typically caring, sharing, token concession to pokies’ toxicity, taxpayers will contribute an extra $1.7 million to the Community Support Levy to counter the costs of problem gambling. The casinos are the big winners while the punter loses out yet again.
The Liberals’ big Tasmania vision is not solution, either, for unlucky punters. Population growth is at its highest rate since the GFC, but that doesn’t “grow” jobs. Nor is it a state economic windfall. It’s the structure of the population that counts. Each year Tasmania has fewer young and more older people compared to the rest of Australia, even when population “booms”.
Will Hodgman has had a population push since 2014. Yet Tasmania has always gained more people over 45 and lost more younger, working, fertile, 19-39 year olds due, mainly, to the state’s lack of employment opportunities.
Older folk create jobs and actively contribute to society and economy, but they also will create increasing demand for government services, such as pensions and healthcare, areas in which Liberals have a poor track record.
The Government has made sweeping job cuts in health, reports ABC Fact check with the Treasurer stating publicly that while the Tasmanian Health Organisations gained 80 full-time equivalent staff, the Health Department shed 200 positions between June 2014 and March 2016.
But bosses and government never gull young people, it’s always unions and greenies who are out to con you.
“Labor and the Greens think you’re stupid. What’s next? Don’t let them tell you what to do”.
This richly allusive Liberal rhetorical campaign gem shrewdly taps Tasmanians’ memory of the unpopularity of its last Labor-Greens coalition cabinet of 2010, a coalition which psephologist, William Bowe, dubs an electoral disaster.
Be it inertia, bewilderment, blind panic, cynical manipulation, disinformation or a toxic cocktail of the lot, in the end, voters elect Will Hodgman’s Libs, a shady cabal of big business, big gambling and Big W, in a result which will further erode Tasmanians’ control of their own lives, expand state power, boost  gun-power and feed the canker of poker machine blight, introduced to the Apple Isle by Ray Groom’s, 1993 Liberal government.
Can Tasmania, our most beautiful, most wondrous state, Australia’s own Serendip, now be rotten at the core?
Ministry of Truth, our ABC in its Insiders cosy Sunday hack-chat-show, a forum which artfully evades the real issues, or real depth, says the Liberals win as Tasmanians flock to sunny uplands of neoliberal prosperity. Hodgman’s Liberals, they say, deliver an “economic upturn” a myth based on the island state’s property boom, or bubble.
It’s a tall story which can only grow taller, as the federal Liberals’ spin doctor army toils to turn the result into a vindication of the Turnbull government’s futile attempts to revive neoliberalism’s corpse; its corporate tax cut payola to its donors, and austerity budgeting, a campaign of calculated impoverishment of innocent and vulnerable victims of its policies, which daily widens the gulf of economic inequality, in its war on the poor and elderly.
By Monday, Tassie’s results will become a sign of upturn number 365 in the Turnbull government’s popularity. There is always a reboot, a recovery around every corner.
Yet, apart from real estate sales, any other economic upturn is hard to find. So why the sudden turnaround? A month ago, polls had the two parties neck and neck, on 34% of the vote, but in more recent polls Liberals soar an alarming 12 %.  in a shocking corruption of the popular will, which, William Bowe, worries, means,
The election could join federal Labor’s mining tax debacle in 2010 as a cautionary tale about the dangers of taking on deep-pocketed interests in an election campaign.
A key issue at stake is many Tasmanians’ opposition to Federal Hotels’ pokies monopoly. Federal owns all 3500 machines (plus Wrest Point Casino, some luxury wilderness accommodation and the Henry James Hotel). Labor and The Greens’ want to remove pokies from all pubs and clubs by 2023. But end the firm’s half-billion dollar revenue stream?
Also not sitting well with voters is Federal’s breath-taking, back-flipping duplicity. Anti-pokers veteran, Pat Caplice sums up Federal’s hypocrisy.
 “The clubs and hotels pushed for pokies back in the ’80s. Federal opposed it totally, used all the arguments about dependency they now deny. Then, when it was being debated in 1993, there was a huge backflip, within days, and Federal itself was gifted a monopoly licence.”
Saturday’s election result ushers in a new “gaming” agreement, an industry euphemism for ripping off unwary, vulnerable, punters. The state will revoke Federal Hotels’ monopoly and gift licences to pokies pubs, in a move which will result in cashed-up Federal and Woolworths buying up dozens of pubs, allowing Woolworths a 30-40% stake in gambling in the state. The result is guaranteed to increase personal misery and social breakdown.
Meanwhile, the pro-pokie promotion create a ruckus that sucks the oxygen out of many other areas of debate.
Protecting what remains of The Tarkine is a huge political issue. Speciality timber logging permits granted in 2014 by Hodgman’s government reduce the area’s reserve to five per cent of its former area. Liberal candidate for Braddon, Adam Brooks’, media release reads “Only the Liberals would stop a Tarkine National Park”.
The Liberal election pledge is an indictment of the party’s senseless environmental vandalism; its contempt for Aboriginal cultural heritage, history and the legacy of shell middens, stone quarries, hut depressions, seal hides and rock carvings that remain and its failure to consult with local Aboriginal people.
17 coupes are still being logged while the 4WD fraternity, bush-bash on expensive temporary road mats. In Hobart, around two thousand people protest the abuse of the unique wilderness, in a gathering led by the Bob Brown Foundation. The group calls for permanent protection for the 447,000 hectares of the Tarkine.
One-armed bandits backers make such a racket they drown out late news that the 45th Tasmanian premier, William Edward Felix Hodgman, promises the quaintly termed sporting shooters and farmers, a hard-nosed gun lobby, an easing of gun control laws, extending licences from five to ten years and permitting automatic weapons.
But if it’s a victory for guns and money, it’s also another stage in the ascent of the corporate oligarchy Woolworths, which, Guy Rundle writes, will wield power over Tasmanians “from controlling prices to suppliers, to selling them their food back as consumers, and taking the cash of people who never quite make it to the shops.”
At the same time, Tasmanians surrender their own say in their own affairs, as Hodgman’s big government proposes major projects legislation and a state-wide planning scheme which shuts out community input.
Tasmania, fruit of the fruit machine, rolls with the dice, as the state’s obscenely powerful gambling lobby pours millions of dollars into Liberal party campaign coffers, vastly outspending the Labor Party. Some estimate a Liberal war chest up to ten times larger. We may never know. The state has the nation’s slackest campaign donation disclosure rules.
What is unique – and refreshing about the Tassie election campaign is the respect between the Liberal and Labor leaders, a tradition that is dead, buried and cremated in federal politics this week when Michaelia Cash suddenly threatens to name young women in Bill Shorten’s office – about whom there have been rumours “for many, many years.” The idea that she should “slut-shame” nineteen women working in Shorten’s office is bizarre, wrong and a sign of an ugly decline in federal politics.
Worse, Cash makes it clear that she proposes to name names and then Shorten will have to prove his innocence. It’s a perversion of legal process and a cheap, demeaning stunt. Worse, it plumbs new depths in character assassination as political strategy.
And it’s part of Liberal team plan: Peter Dutton is soon off the leash on 2GB attacking loose, louche, philandering Bill and two-timing Tony Burke.
“I think we’ve sat here taking a morals lecture from Bill Shorten in relation to Barnaby Joyce over the last few weeks and people know that there’s a history of problems in Bill Shorten’s personal life, Tony Burke’s personal life. And to be lectured by the Labor Party really sticks in the craw.”
As is Dutton’s wont, he is undeterred by being factually incorrect and totally out of order. Labor scrupulously abstained from criticising Barnaby Joyce’s affair with his staffer Vicki Campion.
It was, in fact, Malcolm Turnbull who took it upon himself to deliver a finger-wagging moralising, which was backed up with what can only have been a National to Liberal Party hand-ball leaking of the name of a woman who is bringing case of sexual harassment or serious misconduct against Joyce to the National Party – from whom we have heard nothing further.
Above all it’s not Joyce’s dangerous liaisons that are the critical issue – not his fidelity or his personal morality but how he could create or cause to be created not one but three jobs for his (non-partner) paramour Vicki Campion. And his boondoggle inland rail. Plus his Murray Darling basin water for rich cotton irrigator National party mates scandal.
As the week closes, it is clear that the Coalition’s mud-slinging will continue as part of the Kill Bill strategy – but also as a splendid diversion from any alleged peculation, nepotism or misuse of public funds including travel allowances, a net which seems to be closing rapidly on Julie Bishop, whose non-partner, David Panton, is somehow able to travel at taxpayers’ expense.
The situation is clarified late in the week when Bishop changes her mind; agrees the two have been partners for six months. At least that’s cleared that up. Will Panton now repay his trip to the UN or any other trips he took with her prior to that period? At least it’s not “a grey area” as Barnaby Joyce calls his paternity.
A new tune to add to his brilliant riffs on playing the innocent victim, Joyce tells media that everyone assumed he was the father of Vikki Campion’s child. He may not be. The Daily Tele never asked, despite there being an email from the paper to Joyce asking that very question according to Fairfax.
Now it seems Barnaby and non-partner Vikki were mostly geographically apart with some togetherness during the putative conception date of the unborn child, whom Barnaby, nobly, says he will love anyway. And no. He has no intention of taking any paternity test. Perhaps it may turn out to be an immaculate conception.
In Tassie this week, the Liberals win by throwing buckets of their sponsors, the gambling mob’s – (wrongly dignified as an industry)-  money at advertising promoting fear and loathing of Labor, while, in the senate, Michaelia Cash dishes the dirt as a diversion from her own alleged collusion with the AFP to contact media to help her conduct a witch hunt in an illegal raid on the Melbourne office of the AWU, a union Michael Keenan says gave a donation to Bill Shorten’s campaign – as it is perfectly entitled to do.
The AWU has not yet been charged with a single criminal offence. Probably because none has been committed. In the meantime, politicians from Tasmanian to the nation’s capital compete this week, as Hamlet almost says, stewing in corruption, honeying and making love – while tipping buckets of excrement over their opponents in a debauched, degenerate, parody of a competitive party political system which was once based however loosely around policies and reasoned argument and rational rebuttal.
The nation moves beyond policy, principle or even the fan-club of identity politics to savage character assassination, innuendo and vituperative personal attack. Each day we draw closer to the politics of Trump’s USA, the nation our PM wishes to sedulously ape and not only in tax cuts for corporations but in health and welfare, too.
                One-armed bandits rob Tassie election while Cash loses plot and Barnaby finds paternity a grey area. And it is money that has come out of the pockets of some of the poorest people.
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melindarowens · 7 years ago
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The Sky Won’t Snow, and The Sun Won’t Shine… – Daily Pfennig
Chuck Butler’s: A Pfennig For Your Thoughts    
December 19, 2017  
* Currencies make small moves… 
* S. African rand soars on election results…
* More problems for Toys “R” Us
Good Day…  And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you!  Well, I’m back to being later this morning, sorry… But when I can get sleep without alarms going off to tell it’s time for another antibiotic infusion, I take the opportunity and run with it! HA! That’s funny sight, me running!  In the great Eagles song, Desperado, they sing about how the sky won’t snow and the sun won’t shine… That describes the past two days around here, to a T! If the sky is going to look like this it might as well snow! Of course I say that now, because I’m stuck at home and don’t have to go out in it!  Seals and Crofts greet me this morning with their song: Summer Breeze…  Now doesn’t that sound good right about now?  
The potential wild swings in the currencies and metals this week, didn’t exactly get off to a strong start yesterday, as there just wasn’t much conviction to move either of these two assets.  Gold did gain $6 and change on the day, but $6 of that was in the early morning trading, so the rest of day only yielded some pocket change…  
The dollar wasn’t able to gain any ground on the day, and the euro climbed back above the 1.18 handle..  The euro alternative currencies like the Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Czech koruna all had strong moves on the day, and to me that’s always an indicator of a run on the dollar, but… these thee, that I coined the phrase and called them “Euro-Wannabes” about 15 years ago, need to add to those gains for their moves to be considered serious..  
Aussie and kiwi held their gains from the past couple of trading sessions throughout the overnight market sessions, and look to add to those previous attained gains. Remember what I kept telling you months ago about how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had indicated that they would begin to hike rates in 2018, but the markets weren’t paying attention, and it gave us  investors an opportunity to buy “ahead of the markets”, which wasn’t something that we got to do very often… 
Kiwi has seen a recent bout of selling, because of the narrowing rate advantage VS the green/peachback, but if the RBNZ is actually going to begin to hike rates in 2018, and we’re now within a fortnight of turning the calendar to 2018, the focus shifts to kiwi…  
I was all prepared to talk about the positive move in the S. African rand yesterday, and then got to the end of the letter, and well, forgot it! UGH! I was prepared to tell you about how the rand had rallied nicely ahead of the general election for a new leader of the ruling party. Seems traders and investors were bullish that their candidate, Cyril Ramaphosa, would win the election VS the current leader’s wife.  I don’t have to tell you that this was really going out on a limb, as the polls showed the election to be quite close.  But you have to give those taking positions in rands credit for being so bold… Some might say, That’s stupid Charlie Brown…  But they made a call and put their money behind it… I’ll give them credit for that!  
And…  It paid of for them, as Ramaphosa won the election and is now sitting pretty to be the next President of S. Africa… And the rand continued to book gains on the news.  I’ve never been a fan of the rand, as it is quite volatile. But when it’s good, it’s good, and when it’s bad, it’s bad.. I used to say that I wouldn’t touch rands with your ten foot pole! But like I said, when it’s good, it’s good…  In this case though, I would be careful, as these rallied on political gains usually don’t have legs to go very long in the race…   
Take the Indian rupee… Remember when the hoopla was all about how the rupee was going to soar on the election of Modi? But eventually, that all settled down. I did notice yesterday that the rupee had finally moved below the 64 handle… Hmmm…   
In other currencies…  I wonder what Swiss National Bank (SNB) President, Jordan, is thinking with this recent move higher in the Swiss franc?  The SNB met last week and kept everything, negative rates, and all, in place. And yesterday, Jordan reminded the markets that the SNB has no plans to remove any of the stimulus that’s in place right now.  I think that the markets have developed a deaf ear with regards to what Jordan has to say…  And that’s a bad thing for a Central Bank…    I’m just saying…  
Well, I told you above about how Gold gained $6 and change yesterday above, but forgot to tell you that the shiny metal is flat to down a few shekels in the early morning trading today…  I wonder what James Rickards is thinking right now, after his call for a Gold price reset by year end…  Hmmm…  We’re running out of days, right?   
The U.S. Data Cupboard is full of housing data early this week, but there’s something else I want to talk about here with regards to data and the economy, and that is that, Bloomberg reports that Toys “R” Us is considering closing at least 100 U.S. stores – and as many as 200 – in the face of weak holiday sales. According to Bloomberg’s sources, the store closures are coming after a sharp contraction in sales which declined 15% this Christmas-shopping season from a year earlier.  OMG!  Remember when Toys “R” Us filed Chapter 11 in September, and they told the markets that once they restructured their debt that everything would be kosher? Well, I guess not…  And during the Christmas shopping season?  
To recap…  The dollar is drifting, and some of the currencies are taking advantage of that drifting in the dollar.  The S. African rand is soaring after the markets’ choice of candidates won the election to lead the ruling party. The euro has climbed back above 1.18, and Chuck points out the moves in the euro Wannabes…  Gold gained $6 and change yesterday, and Toys “R” Us appears to be having some major problems!  
For What It’s Worth…  I found this on Ed Steer’s letter today, and thought it to be FWIW worthy. It’s about Bitcoin, so it should grab your attention…  And the article was put out by the good folks at GATA, so there’s no link to it, but I’ve got the gist of the article here:   
And here’s your snippet: “Bitcoin.com is one of the world’s largest bitcoin sites, having grown its profile thanks to the insane price surge of the cryptocurrency this year. But its co-founder and CTO, Emil Oldenburg, a Swedish native, is extremely skeptical of bitcoin’s future.
“I would say an investment in bitcoin is right now the riskiest investment you can make. There’s an extremely high risk,” he says in an interview with Swedish tech site Breakit.
“I have in fact sold all my bitcoins recently and switched to bitcoin cash,” says Oldenburg, referring to the problems with bitcoin’s high transaction costs and lead times.
“The old bitcoin network is as good as unusable.”
While buying, selling or trading in bitcoins is not an issue today, according to Oldenburg, the problems surface when bitcoin transactions are recorded on the blockchain, the digital ledger that records each transaction.
The problem centres on the limited amount of transactions per second you can make in the bitcoin network, which in turn depends on the formation of the memory “block size” that store the transactions. This, according to Oldenburg, makes for a very illiquid and unusable cryptocurrency.” 
Chuck again… Uh Oh…   
Currencies today: 12/19/17… American Style: A$ .7671, kiwi .7006, C$ .7773, euro 1.1820, sterling 1.3351, Swiss $1.0142, … European Style: rand 12.7239, krone 8.36, SEK 8.4235, forint 264.82, zloty 3.5490, koruna 21.70, RUB 58.66, yen 112.75, sing 1.3468, HKD 7.8184, INR 63.93, China 6.6128, peso 19.06, BRL 3.2909, Dollar Index 93.58, Oil $57.52, 10-year 2.42%, Silver $16.19, Platinum $915.10, Palladium $1,022.28, and Gold… $1,264.50
That’s it for today…  Well, I believe that Kathy is coming home tonight… Please don’t tell her I talked about her! So, to Jen and Christine, I made it, I survived by myself, and you didn’t think I would be able to! I even had added problems to deal with these past 10 days, but here I am!  I have been beating my head against the wall trying to think of a good present for Kathy, and I’ve got nothing! She’s one of those people that if she wants something she buys it… She doesn’t wait for birthdays, etc.   Speaking of birthdays, her birthday is the day after Christmas… Our first Christmas together, I made the mistake of buying her a present and saying, Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday.. She informed me that was not acceptable, and I’ve been good about that every since…  That was Christmas 1972… WOW! OK, The Cure takes us to the finish line today with their song: Pictures of You… And with that, it’s time to go… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday and Be Good To Yourself! 
Chuck Butler
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