#I wish joel was better at being boogy

[thechanglingchronicles]

Last life scar makes me want to kill myself

[donnyjabronie]

And Now, Some Junk about the NBA Playoffs

To the unaware, I’m a massive NBA fan. No, I really don’t know why. Something about the sport just totally engrosses me and my attention. So I thought I’d do a pointless write-up on how I feel this first round of the playoffs will play out, and give a bit of reasoning why. 

Western Conference Predictions

1. Houston Rockets (65-17) vs 8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: 4-1 Rockets

I think this series could prove to be more interesting than most expect, it being a 1 seed vs 8 seed and all. The Timberwolves are in the playoffs for the first time in over 10 years, they’re healthy, and they’re out to prove themselves Jimmy Butler is an absolute star coming in fresh after recovering from injury, Wiggins needs to prove he’s not just a chucker and a bust, and KAT is one of the best bigs in the game. On the flip side, James Harden is out to prove himself as rightful MVP and avoid the label of playoff choker some have attributed to him. Chris Paul also has never sniffed a deep playoffs run despite being known as one of the best point guards in the league. I can see most of these games ending closer than one would guess, but Houston swept the Timberwolves in the regular season for a reason. I can’t see Minnesota winning more than one game. Regardless, the Wolves should be happy just making the playoffs after a long drought, and look forward to hopefully a new era of greatness for the franchise. 

2. Golden State Warriors (58-24) vs 7. San Antonio Spurs (47-35)

Prediction: 4-2 Warriors

This match-up might be the one that upsets me the most, as a Cavs fan. The Warriors are missing Curry, they’re at the weakest they’ve ever been and the perfect target for a first round upset, but with the Spurs also missing Kawhi and not being the strongest matchup against the deep shooting of the Warriors, I really can’t see them pulling it off. Having said that, LaMarcus Aldridge has had his best season since joining the Spurs, and the Spurs have beaten every single team in the western conference playoffs in just this past month to get here. This series could go one of two ways: the Warriors, lacking Curry, struggle against the Spurs to get it going and the series comes down to the wire, with neither team having a clear advantage. The alternate path: the Spurs put up a strong fight but the playoff Warriors arrive, the one that has god-like Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, and the Spurs don’t win more than two in the series. Either way it’ll be tough for both sides, and I can’t wait to see it go down.

In case you think I’m silly for saying this will be such a tough matchup: Let me just remind you that just last season the Warriors were the 1 seed and the Spurs 2. And when they met in the playoffs, the Spurs were winning by 20+ points until Kawhi Leonard went down with injury. Obviously a Spurs team without Kawhi is weaker, but just how much weaker now that they’ve had an entire season to adjust is up for debate. 

3. Portland Trail Blazers (49-33) vs 6. New Orleans Pelicans (48-34)

Prediction: 4-2 Trail Blazers

Boy I wish DeMarcus Cousins wasn’t injured. But he is. Anthony Davis can only do so much heavy-lifting, especially in the playoffs. The only reason I didn’t go with 4-1 Portland is because Anthony Davis is an absolute anomaly, and if his teammates can step up to the plate they can beat any team in the league. I just can’t see anybody other than maybe Jrue Holiday consistently stepping up. Portland has been trapped in mediocre-playoffs-team hell for far too long, and Damian Lillard has looked more incredible this season than he has in a while. Nurkic has been a key piece in the post for them and a great pick-up that had an impact even last year, but unfortunately only played one game in the playoffs. With their core so held together with how much of an injury-riddled season this has been, I think this is Portland’s year to make an impact.

Ultimately in my eyes, this series comes down to which star has a better cast to support them. Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard are going to get theirs, and nobody is going to stop either of them. It’s going to be up to the rest of their line-ups to come through and make sure those performances don’t go to waste, and ultimately I think Portland has the better line-up to give the Pelicans a hard time and win the series. (Please God find a way for Boogie to return to the Pelicans and still be just as good as he was at the start of the season.) 

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (48-34) vs 5. Utah Jazz (48-34)

Prediction: 4-1 Thunder

This series is the one I’m most ready to be wrong on out of all of these. The Thunder have an objectively better roster, with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook, aided by the likes of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. There are a few wrenches thrown in OKC’s perfect storm however; Corey Brewer, a fringe bench player turned defensive anchor for OKC who took over in Robersons’ absence, has a knee sprain and could possibly miss a few games at the start of the playoffs, Carmelo Anthony has regressed much harder than anybody expected this season, and as with every season we don’t know if we’ll get to see Bestbrook or Worstbrook, not to mention how Russ’s tendencies could affect his teammates’ ability to contribute. The Jazz also have DPOY candidate Gobert, a strong shooter in Joe Ingles, and the ROTY candidate Donovan Mitchell. Ultimately, if both teams were playing to absolute full potential, I would say the Thunder would dominate the series totally. 

The biggest reason why I say Jazz only win one game is because of one new factor: Paul George. Over the past 2 years, Paul George averaged over 25 points, albeit at much different FG%. Playoff Paul George is a force to be reckoned with, and that was when he was the leader and star of his own team. Put into the backseat with Westbrook to feed him, and recently breaking out of the shooting slump he’s been trapped in, I’m eager to see how George performs. 

So that does it for the Western Conference. The West has been such a bloodbath that I honestly believe you won’t want to miss any of these match-ups. Every one of these series promises to be entertaining in one form or another, and if ever there was a year for surprising upsets to happen, this is the year, and in my personal opinion not even the Rockets are exempt from this (although if it does happen I doubt it’ll be the Wolves to do it. Sorry Timberbros.) 

Eastern Conference Predictions 

1. Toronto Raptors (59-23) vs 8. Washington Wizards (43-39). 

Prediction: 4-3 Raptors 

This is not the first seed match-up I expected to see. The Wizards have, along with missing quite a lot of time from John Wall, experienced a disappointing season to say the least. However, John Wall is healthy now for the playoffs, and of course it would be just the Raps’ luck to, in their franchise’s best season ever, lose in the first round to the 8th seed. I think the Wizards with John Wall back will put up a stronger fight than anybody’s expecting, but if DeMarr DeRozan and Lowry can avoid slumping as they’ve done in previous seasons, they should absolutely be able to take this series. If the Trash Bros make a return, however, there’s no telling how this Raptors team will do. I don’t think they will. I think this is going to be the Raptors’ best opportunity to make a deep playoff push, the best opportunity they’ll ever have (lets ignore the LeBron freight train coming for the 2nd round.) 

The Wizards have had a rough season, but I think the potential is there for them to surprise some people with how well they play and wear down the Raptors, but even at full force I can’t see them possibly taking down DeRozan and the bench mob. When a team’s 2nd biggest threat is their entire bench, you know that you’ve got a well put-together roster. 

2. Boston Celtics (55-27) vs 7. Bucks (44-38)

Prediction: 4-2 Celtics

The Boston Celtics are missing their two best players coming into the playoffs, but they’ve got a well-rounded roster and one of the best coaches in the league to help them along. The Bucks are almost the reverse of that: They have one of the best young talents in the league in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker’s return has been very promising. The rest of their line-up is very mediocre and underperforming, and their coaching has been notoriously terrible these past couple years. I’m not saying that this series will be proof that superior coaching > raw talent (Boston has a much more well-rounded roster) but that is certainly something to consider going into this. 

I’d love to see Giannis’ rise through the playoffs happen now, but I can’t see it happening with the team he’s on now. I’m not saying I want Giannis to leave, but the Bucks’ FO needs to shake things up and make some changes. This is another case of “one man can’t carry a franchise” and I hope the Bucks are taught a harsh lesson and come back next season with a better team and coaching staff as a result. 

3. Philadelphia 76ers (52-30) vs 6. Miami Heat (44-38)

Prediction: 4-3 Heat

Call me a hater. Call me an idiot. Tell me I don’t Trust The Process (tm). I think Miami will be the team to pull off an upset. Every match-up between Philly and Miami has ended with a point difference of less than 10, Miami has the superior coaching in Eric Spoelstra, Dwyane Wade has been surprisingly clutch, Hassan Whiteside, while not quite as good as he was last season, is still a force in the post, and Dragic has been an underrated solid starting guard for Miami. The 76ers have had an incredible season after how atrocious they were just one year ago, they have the monsterous Joel Embiid, ROTY candidate Ben Simmons, and veteran help of JJ Reddick coming in clutch. This series is going to be a bloodbath, but one that ultimately I can see the underdog coming out on top of. 

Something you may notice is that I place a lot of weight on benches and how they perform, and this matchup is no different. The 76ers bench has some decent players such as TJ McConnell, but the Heat have a bench that can often score more than the starting 5. Olynyk has had a surprisingly impressive season and more than a few high scoring performances, Adebayo is severely underrated, and all-together I think that the Heat not only match up well against the 76ers, they match up well enough to take the series. 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32) vs 5. Indiana Pacers (48-34)

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers 

Playoff LeBron taught the Pacers an important lesson in never celebrating early last year, overcoming 99% odds of losing in one of the most dominating performances I’ve ever witnessed. Now, the lineup surrounding LeBron is younger, and ready to prove themselves. Kevin Love is actually healthy. Larry Nance Jr. has proven to be a solid replacement for the fertile corpse of Tristan Thompson. All the pieces seem to have come into place for the yearly LeBron finals push despite losing Kyrie Irving and a disappointing season from Isaiah Thomas. 

The Pacers have had the most shocking season out of every team in the league, going from what was expected to be a tanking bottom-of-the-barrel wash of a team into the Oladipo-led middle-of-the-pack team that they are. Lance Stephenson is already prepping to blow. This series is where two merry band of misfits meet, only one of these teams has the remains of a finals-caliber team including a king who’s proved time and time again that he can will even the worst of teams into the finals. While I don’t expect Indiana to pull off anything crazy, I think they’ll give the Cavs a good series and play their hearts out. 

And so, my overly long first round NBA playoff predictions draws to a close. Time will show how accurate these predictions prove to be. With my luck I’ll be wrong on every single series, but that’ll just make it even more entertaining. As a Cavs fan but always willing to cheer on the underdog, I’m actually really upset we play the Pacers in the first round. They’re my 2nd favorite team in the East this season and I don’t want to see them go down too harshly to the Cavs. I think I’m most upset by the Clippers missing the playoffs, despite being gutted over the course of their season they held it together and nearly did the unthinkable. 

This playoffs promises to be one of the most entertaining in years, not just the finals but even from the first round. The East is as close as it could possibly be, and the West has a weakened Cavaliers met with plenty of talented teams such as Raptors and 76ers to give LeBron a run for his money. 

I hope you’re looking forward to this Saturday as much as I am. 

[glenngaylord]

TERMS OF ESTRANGEMENT - My Review of THE LOVERS (3 Stars)

It’s no secret that Debra Winger is my favorite living actor.  That raspy voice, throaty laugh, and gorgeously expressive eyes combined with her gift of conveying complex emotions brought us legendary performances in URBAN COWBOY, AN OFFICER AND A GENTLEMAN, SHADOWLANDS, and especially TERMS OF ENDEARMENT.  I couldn’t wait to see her return to a leading role after 15 years of very little output or tiny but effective appearances in films like RACHEL GETTING MARRIED.  

My excitement grew when I found out she had been paired with celebrated playwright Tracy Letts (AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY), who has proven himself to be an exceptional actor on HOMELAND and in such films as WIENER-DOG, CHRISTINE, and THE BIG SHORT.  In writer/director Azazel Jacobs’ THE LOVERS, Winger and Letts play Mary and Michael, a long-married couple who have long ago lost any passion for each other and have taken on romantic partners to fill that void.  Mary has fallen for Robert, a soft-spoken writer played by Aidan Gillen (GAME OF THRONES) while Michael has found love with the difficult, needy ballet teacher Lucy (Melora Walters of BOOGIE NIGHTS and MAGNOLIA).  Both have convinced their respective lovers that after their college-aged son Joel (Tyler Ross) visits them with his girlfriend Erin (Jessica Sula) they will end their marriage and be only with them.  Instead, they rekindle their romantic feelings for each other, thus “cheating” on their lovers.  

It’s a clean, classic setup for a romantic comedy, but Jacobs and company play things straight with quite dark results.  Jacobs clearly wants to honestly explore sexuality among the middle-aged set, all of which gets an effectively sobering treatment.  It commendably doesn’t go for the obvious choices or resolutions, but, unfortunately, the film disappointed me.  

Strangely enough, the first big elephant in the room is its score by Mandy Hoffman.  It’s an incongruously lush, orchestral, romantic soundtrack that would not have felt out of place in LA LA LAND, a Woody Allen trifle, or an Audrey Hepburn vehicle.  Here, it makes no sense.  ON screen, we’re watching damaged people betray each other, yet the music tells us they’re minutes away from wrapping themselves around a light pole in the rain.  It’s constant and truly threw me out of the movie as the actors and director valiantly fought to keep me in it.  

To his credit, Jacobs has assembled a stellar cast.  Winger and Letts are both superb, yet they’re both given such little back story that I felt like the characters acted as puzzle pieces moved around at will by the filmmaker.  There’s something very schematic, flawlessly so, about the whole enterprise.  Jacobs has crafted a much more visual film than I expected.  He and his cinematographer, Tobias Datum, have made a lush, gorgeously shot film that could have easily ended up looking like a micro-budget indie.  

So much of the storytelling gets conveyed by silences, which normally would be a high compliment, but in this case, I mean it as criticism.  You don’t put an actor like Debra Winger in a film and not let her verbally go at it.  With the exception of one short outburst, she never raises her voice and often says very little.  That she does so to perfection seems besides the point when her natural resources often go to waste.  She can do a role like this in her sleep, and I’m afraid that once the highly deserved goodwill for her return to the screen evaporates, this performance won’t look like one for the ages.  Don’t get me wrong.  She’s still amazing, but her performance seems hampered by an underwritten script.  

Letts, on the other hand, has the better written role and masterfully plays his character’s anxieties, impatience, and anger spotlessly.  Ross (so great on THE KILLING), as their disapproving son has some terrific moments as someone who hopes he doesn’t end up like his parents but who will clearly stumble.  While Gillen isn’t given much to do, his scenes with Winger show a looser side than he is usually given the opportunity to show, and Walters steals every scene she’s in as a woman driven crazy by a lover who constantly lies to her.  

If anything, THE LOVERS is about a pair of liars.  It basically asks the question, “Can two deceptive people carve out a sliver of happiness in their lives?”  The answer ends up being surprising yet somewhat disheartening and abrupt.  I understand what Jacobs is trying to say, but wish he had filled in the blanks a little more carefully.  I’ve never made a case for an adept visual director to dial it back, but here’s a promising film with some of the best performers in the business that could have benefited from more tell and less show.