#Gulf Oil India

[ranideshpande]

How to Choose the Best Engine Oil for Your Bike | Expert Guide

When choosing the best engine oil for your bike, consider these five expert tips:

1. Consult your owner’s manual for manufacturer recommendations. 2. Understand and prioritize SAE viscosity grades. 3. Evaluate the benefits of synthetic versus conventional oils. 4. Explore reputable brands like Gulf Oil India. 5. Factor in your bike’s specific requirements and riding conditions.

The right oil selection, aligned with these considerations, is paramount for optimal bike performance, reducing wear, and ensuring the longevity of critical engine components. Make an informed choice to safeguard your bike’s engine and enhance your overall riding experience.

To know more, visit — https://india.gulfoilltd.com/blog/how-to-choose-the-best-engine-oil-for-bike

[anantahuja]

How to Choose the Best Engine Oil for Your Bike | Expert Guide

When choosing the best engine oil for your bike, consider these five expert tips:

1. Consult your owner’s manual for manufacturer recommendations. 2. Understand and prioritize SAE viscosity grades. 3. Evaluate the benefits of synthetic versus conventional oils. 4. Explore reputable brands like Gulf Oil India. 5. Factor in your bike’s specific requirements and riding conditions.

The right oil selection, aligned with these considerations, is paramount for optimal bike performance, reducing wear, and ensuring the longevity of critical engine components. Make an informed choice to safeguard your bike’s engine and enhance your overall riding experience.

To know more, visit — https://india.gulfoilltd.com/blog/how-to-choose-the-best-engine-oil-for-bike

[script-a-world]

Submitted via Google Form:

What would happen to the richest countries in the world these days because they export oil when my story takes place in 2400 and and the oil is all gone and these countries are where my story actually takes place. Where all the money is now is pretty much the countries that produce cutting edge technology.

Licorice: 2400 CE is 376 years in the future. 

Which countries were the richest 376 years ago?  That would take us back to 1648. The richest country in the world was China, with India not far behind. The Ottoman Empire was another superpower, and most of today’s Middle Eastern oil states were its posessions. The USA didn’t even exist. The British had barely begun building their empire; the Netherlands and France were both far richer and more powerful than GB, but the European powerhouse was Spain with its Latin American colonial empire pumping out seemingly inexhaustible supplies of silver and gold bullion, inspiring a golden age of piracy in the Caribbean. 

China, India, France: their wealth was based mostly on strong diverse domestic economies. 

Britain, Portugal and the Netherlands: they were too small and poor to build a China-type self-sufficient diverse economy. They grew rich on trade.

Ottoman Empire: a multicultural melting pot covering roughly the same geographic area as the Eastern Roman Empire, the Ottomans had it all. But they fell behind in the 19th century, and the empire was torn apart by the waves of nationalism that swept across the globe after the French Revolution. The Ottoman Empire no longer exists.

Spain grew rich in the same way the oil economies grew rich, by mining a single commodity and using it to pay for everything

A country like the USA is going to be as fine as anywhere can be after the oil is gone. Like China, India and the EU they will diversify into renewable resources and keep right on truckin’ because their economies are sufficiently wealthy and diverse, their population sufficiently  educated, and their governments sufficiently forward thinking to do this. 

Back in the 18th century, the measly little island of Britain took the wealth it earned from trade to invest in R&D, invented the industrial revolution, and used its tech advantage to conquer an empire the likes of which had never hitherto been seen. 

Spain, on the other hand, didn’t invest in itself. The gold and silver from the Spanish Main trickled through its fingers the way easy money always does with lottery winners. Much of the bullion ended up in China via British, Dutch, and Portuguese ships. Spain’s empire disintegrated in the 19th century.

In short, if you’re a country with a booming economy dependent on a single non-renewable commodity, and you are smart, you will use that wealth to build your competitive advantage in diverse areas of human economic activity. You will educate your population to be creative and entrepreneurial. This is more likely to happen if your government is some flavour of democracy.

If you’re not smart or if your government is controlled by a small clique of aristocrats or a dictator and his court with no accountability to the future, your elite will simply take most of the wealth for themselves, stick it into Swiss bank accounts, and leave the country impoverished and under-developed when they flee the inevitable coup. 

Since the history of the years 2024-2400 hasn’t yet been written, it’s up to you to decide what the countries in your story are going to do. All of them are well aware that the oil bonanza will not last forever. You might find this useful: “How the Gulf Region is Planning for Life After Oil”. 

So, which of your countries will be smart and which will be foolish? Which ones will have the foresight to build a viable post-oil future for themselves, and which ones will slide backwards into poverty, ignorance, and oppression? You decide. 

[thozhar]

Gulf migration is not just a major phenomenon in Kerala; north Indian states also see massive migration to the Gulf. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar accounted for the biggest share (30% and 15%) of all Indian workers migrating to GCC1 countries in 2016-17 (Khan 2023)—a trend which continues today. Remittances from the Gulf have brought about significant growth in Bihar’s economy (Khan 2023)—as part of a migrant’s family, I have observed a tangible shift in the quality of life, education, houses, and so on, in Siwan. In Bihar, three districts—Siwan, Gopalganj, and Chapra—send the majority of Gulf migrants from the state, mostly for manual labor (Khan 2023). Bihar also sees internal migration of daily wagers to Delhi, Bombay, and other parts of India. Gulf migration from India’s northern regions, like elsewhere in India, began after the oil boom in the 1970s. Before this time, migration was limited to a few places such as Assam, Calcutta, Bokaro, and Barauni—my own grandfather worked in the Bokaro steel factory.

Despite the role of Gulf migration and internal migration in north Indian regions, we see a representational void in popular culture. Bollywood films on migration largely use rural settings, focussing on people who work in the USA, Europe, or Canada. The narratives centre these migrants’ love for the land and use dialogue such as ‘mitti ki khusbu‘ (fragrance of homeland). Few Bollywood films, like Dor and Silvat, portray internal migration and Gulf migration. While Bollywood films frequently centre diasporic experiences such as Gujaratis in the USA and Punjabis in Canada, they fail in portraying Bihari migrants, be they indentured labourers in the diaspora, daily wagers in Bengal, or Gulf migrants. The regional Bhojpuri film industry fares no better in this regard. ‘A good chunk of the budget is spent on songs since Bhojpuri songs have an even larger viewership that goes beyond the Bhojpuri-speaking public’, notes Ahmed (2022), marking a context where there is little purchase for Gulf migration to be used as a reference to narrate human stories of longing, sacrifice, and family.

One reason for this biased representation of migration is that we see ‘migration’ as a monolith. In academic discourse, too, migration is often depicted as a commonplace phenomenon, but I believe it is crucial to make nuanced distinctions in the usage of the terms ‘migration’ and ‘migrant’. The term ‘migration’ is a broad umbrella term that may oversimplify the diverse experiences within this category. My specific concern is about Gulf migrants, as their migration often occurs under challenging circumstances. For individuals from my region, heading to the Gulf is typically a last resort. This kind of migration leads to many difficulties, especially when it distances migrants from their family for much of their lifetime. The term ‘migration’, therefore, inadequately captures the profound differences between, for instance, migrating to the USA for educational purposes and migrating to the Gulf for labour jobs. Bihar has a rich history of migration, dating back to the era of indentured labor known as girmitiya. Following the abolition of slavery in 1883, colonial powers engaged in the recruitment of laborers for their other colonies through agreements (Jha 2019). Girmitiya distinguishes itself from the migration. People who are going to the Arabian Gulf as blue-collar labourers are also called ‘Gulf migrants’—a term that erases how their conditions are very close to slavery. This is why, as a son who rarely saw his father, I prefer to call myself a ‘victim of migration’ rather than just a ‘part of migration’. It is this sense of victimhood and lack of control over one’s life that I saw missing in Bollywood and Bhojpuri cinema.

— Watching 'Malabari Films' in Bihar: Gulf Migration and Transregional Connections

[mariacallous]

The Red Sea might just be history’s most contested body of water. It has been the site of imperial or great-power competition for at least 500 years, from the Portuguese search for the sea route to Asia all the way to the Cold War. It remains the most important trade link between Asia and Europe. The Suez Canal at its northern egress has been displaced by the Singapore Strait as the world’s most important chokepoint, but it’s still the second-most vital; 30 percent of global container ship traffic moves through that canal. Container ships are to globalization what eighteen-wheelers are to the United States—the workhorses of trade. And there are important energy flows here: 7.1 million barrels of oil and 4.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas transit the Bab el-Mandeb (the southern entrance to the Red Sea) every day, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

So attacks by Houthi forces on “Israeli” shipping in recent days have the potential for major disruption. “Israeli” is in quotes because commercial shipping ownership is complicated and opaque: Ship ownership, ship operation, and flag of registry often differ, and none necessarily has any bearing on the ownership or destination of the cargo on board or the nationality of the crew. What’s more, Houthi attacks have quickly morphed from semi-targeted at ships nominally linked to Israel to more indiscriminate. The world’s most important container shipping firms—including MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and Cosco—have paused on sending ships through these waters for fear of loss of life or damage.

Enter a new U.S.-led task force with the somewhat on-the-nose moniker Operation Prosperity Guardian, a naval coalition to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks. It will operate under the aegis of a preexisting mechanism, the Combined Maritime Forces, a counterpiracy and counterterrorism naval coalition (the world’s largest, by far) that operates out of Bahrain. So far, nine countries have signed up officially (though some with very modest contributions—Canada, for example, is sending three staff officers and no ships yet); there are reports that others have quietly agreed to participate or contribute. India, which has a lot at stake here (especially in the disproportionate number of Indian nationals among the crews of major commercial lines), is not part of the coalition but is independently contributing two vessels to the effort.

The United States and France have long had bases in Djibouti to project power across the Red Sea, recently joined by Japan and China, and the European Union operates out of the French base to support Operation Atalanta, a counterpiracy task force that protects trade in the nearby Gulf of Aden (alongside the U.S.-led Combined Task Force 151, which has the same mission). But this skirmish is an astonishingly asymmetric fight. With a handful of missiles and drones, the Houthis have succeeded in placing at risk one of the most important arteries of the global economy.

The asymmetry has caused some of the debate to focus on the cost of the drones versus the cost of the missiles being used to defend the ships. It’s the wrong metric. The right calculation is cost of the missile versus cost of the target. If a drone attack succeeds, it could wreck a ship worth anywhere upwards of $50 million and carrying trade goods likely in the $500 million range—and in some cases, roughly double those amounts.

The real problem of volume is a different one. The primary ships being used for these operations—for the United States, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers; for the United Kingdom, the Daring class—sail with an arsenal of roughly 60 missiles that are useful for shooting down drones or missiles. (They carry other types of missiles as well, rounding out the complement of armaments, but not ones germane to this fight.) At the pace at which the Houthis have been conducting attacks, a single ship would expend its relevant armaments in a couple of weeks and need to be rotated out; there’s no way to replenish these missiles at sea. If the Houthis keep up the pace of attacks and have a steady supply of drones and missiles (which seems likely), the cost of maintaining a naval escort operation—including the costs of operating the ships at distance—will rapidly rise into the tens of billions of dollars.

The West faces three options, all with serious downsides.

First, reroute the shipping. For now, until the task force is assembled, shippers are switching routes between the Red Sea and the long voyage around the Cape of Good Hope off southern Africa. It’s been done before, when the Suez Canal was closed as a result of Arab-Israeli wars in the late 1960s and early ’70s. But global trade then was a fraction of global trade now. Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope would add roughly 60 percent of the transit time (and fuel cost) from Asian ports to European ones, not just adding costs to shippers (who would pass those costs onto consumers) but more importantly gumming up the works in global just-in-time manufacturing. While this is an acceptable option for a week or two, any longer and the disruption to global sea-based supply chains would be significant.

Second, attack the missiles and drones at the source, either to eradicate the armaments or deter the attacks. Already there’s a drumbeat of criticism that U.S. President Joe Biden hasn’t yet authorized this course. Easily said but less easily achieved. It would not be too hard for Houthi forces to hide both themselves and a stockpile of drones and missiles from U.S. targeting, so any attacks—from two U.S. carrier strike groups in nearby waters—would have to be pretty wide-ranging and even then are likely to miss pockets of weaponry. Would Iran—the Houthis’ primary backers—be thus deterred? It’s unclear how or why; Iran is surely willing to allow the Houthis to sustain substantial casualties for the “win” of harassing “the West” in the Red Sea. Attacking Iran itself is the next logical step and may prove necessary, but that carries its own major risk of escalation while Israel is grappling with the missile threat from Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon.

Third, widen the coalition. So far, Germany has not joined in, to some criticism but with good reason. There are mounting demands on Germany’s modest navy in Northern European waters, where the Russians are flexing their subsea muscles. Australia was asked to join but made the counterargument that its modest naval capacity is better deployed in the Western Pacific. Japan could contribute, especially since it has a base in Djibouti. Another potential contributor is China, which has a base nearby and a long track record of contributing to counterpiracy operations in the Indian Ocean. There’s a dilemma here for the West, though: Do the Western powers prefer to (a) pay the price of protecting global sea-based trade, of which China is the largest source and arguably primary beneficiary, or (b) help facilitate China’s growing capacity to project naval power across the high seas?

The entire episode highlights this point: There’s a deepening contradiction between the reality of globalization, heavily dependent on sea-based trade and on China, and the reality of geopolitical contest, in which naval power is rapidly emerging as a central dimension. Tensions and bad choices abound in the Red Sea—but they are also a harbinger of tougher choices and turbulent waters ahead.

[blitzkriege37]

What factions do you headcanon exist post-Tragedy? There's the Future Foundation, Towa City, and the various Despairs, but I don't see anything else about how societies exists in the DanganRonpa-verse, especially with their whole fascination on the semi-supernatural Talent that sorta caused the Tragedy in the first place.

I don’t have exact factions (Mainly because I was a child in 2012, the year THH takes place), but I do have general ideas of what might some factions look like, and what generally said cliques that rose from the collapse would act towards junko. Also headcanons for how some areas might collapse and redevelop.

1.Islamists would be very present in the Middle East. That era was around the peak of ISIS, and I think the tragedy increasing radicalization would only make that worse. Speaking of religious radicalization….

2. The American right-wing “tea party” faction, would be a heavy presence in the former United States. Their cliques would vary from corporatism to outright religious theocracies. Heck, junko’s influence could’ve fanned their flames into facism, being the way the union collapsed in this timeline, akin to the US today.

3. The absolute monarchies collapse. All of them are prevalent on a central figure, ones that I have no doubt Junko would get their entire lines killed to force conflict. This would be a definite way to get an opening through infighting in Saudi Arabia and the gulf states. This also applies to NK and similar regimes.

4.Africa’s borders would be nearly completely redrawn. With the primary motivation for the borders being nobody wanting to move colonial borders, the collapse of Europe would make these borders obsolete. Whatever ethnic tension came up would fracture the post colonial states not only de jure, but de facto.

5.Any multiethnic states are almost completely rended apart. Whether it be one breakaway, or outright collapse, nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, and India would face ethnic violence.

6.Everyone gets a trade shock. The entire model of globalism in the 2010’s would be the equivalent of MAD, one junko would exploit. States like the oil states and Singapore would be hit the hardest, while states with notable sanctions (Iran,Cuba) would ironically be spared from this, although their governments would go through some things.

7.The states aligned with despair have levels in how bad they are. You have cliques who allied with despair out of convenience, and you have 77-B controlled states like Novoselic. Their brutality would vary between, although still be bad, considering the worldwide warlord era. When junko died, many of the less extreme cliques would either have their leaders commit suicide, turned to her side fully, and have less extreme people take over, or outright purge their despairite influence best they could. These states would be accepted back into the world community, to the FF chagrin.

8.There would be a notable split after everything settled somewhat. The FF would face heavy opposition from a myriad of groups, the most notable most likely being of some leftist variety, considering the oligarchic and unequal ideas of innate talent. I could see the FF contesting the very archipelago of Japan with the Japanese Communist Party. Even after post-DR3, where Makoto would definitely want to reconcile with the left, they wouldn’t be very trusting of the FF’s intentions.

9. A ton of city states. Whether they split off from a greater entity, or were forcefully ejected like Singapore, I’d expect for a lot of nations to fracture down to the city at some places.

10.And as my last one, it’s more about how the tragedy (or collapse, as it would probably be known) would be viewed. I’d say the Arab spring would be inherently tied to it, due to similar ways of organizing and wanting to overthrow established regimes. Heck, I could see more reactionary people arguing that the collapse did not begin with the tragedy, but the popular overthrow of the government of Tunisia.

Again, these are just my thoughts on the whole thing, so it’s really up to you.

[chhajed9000]

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[usafphantom2]

U.S. will send F-16 fighters to the Gulf region to protect ships from Iranian seizures

The U.S. action comes after Iran tried to seize two oil tankers near the strait last week, setting fire to one of them.

Fernando Valduga By Fernando Valduga 16/07/2023 - 15:49in Military, War Zones

The U.S. is reinforcing the use of fighters around the strategic Strait of Hormuz to protect ships from Iranian seizures.

Speaking to Pentagon reporters, a senior defense official told reporters on Friday that the U.S. will send F-16 fighters to the Gulf region to increase the A-10 attack aircraft that have been patrolling there for more than a week, according to the Associated Press.

The official also said that the U.S. is increasingly concerned about the growing ties between Iran, Russia and Syria in the Middle East.

The defense officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the F-16s will give air cover to ships moving along the waterway and increase the visibility of the military in the area, as an impediment to Iran.

The U.S. action comes after Iran tried to seize two oil tankers near the strait last week, setting fire to one of them.

Officials said that in the last two years, Iran has persecuted, attacked or interfered in the navigation rights of 15 international-flagged commercial vessels.

At the end of April, Iran seized the Marshall Islands flagd Advantage Sweet while traveling in the Gulf of Oman. Six days later, he seized a second ship, the Niovi, a tanker with the flag of Panama when leaving a dry dock in Dubai.

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for the global supply of energy, is usually a place of tense encounters between Americans and Iranian forces.

In early December, an Iranian patrol boat tried to temporarily blind U.S. Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, pointing a spotlight at the ships and crossing them 150 meters from them.

Last August, an Iranian ship seized an American unmanned military research ship in the Gulf, but released it after a patrol boat and a U.S. Navy helicopter were sent to the scene.

Tags: Military AviationF-16 Fighting FalconUSAF - United States Air Force / U.S. Air ForceWar Zones - Iran

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Fernando Valduga

Fernando Valduga

Aviation photographer and pilot since 1992, has participated in several events and air operations, such as Cruzex, AirVenture, Daytona Airshow and FIDAE. He has works published in specialized aviation magazines in Brazil and abroad. Uses Canon equipment during his photographic work around the world of aviation.

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[the-art-of-investing-in-stocks]

ASX BHP: A Diversified Mining and Petroleum Giant with Strong Financial Performance

BHP Group, also known as ASX BHP, is a multinational mining, metals, and petroleum company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. With operations in over 90 locations worldwide, BHP is one of the largest diversified resource companies in the world.

In this article, we will take a closer look at ASX BHP, including its history, current operations, financial performance, and future prospects.

History of ASX BHP

BHP was originally founded in 1885 as the Broken Hill Proprietary Company Limited, named after the Broken Hill silver and lead mine in western New South Wales, Australia. Over the years, the company expanded into other commodities, including iron ore, copper, coal, and petroleum.

In 2001, BHP merger with Billiton plc, a mining company based in London, to form BHP Billiton. The merger created one of the largest mining companies in the world, with operations in over 25 countries.

In 2017, the company simplified its name to BHP Group, reflecting its focus on its core operations in mining, metals, and petroleum.

Current Operations

BHP operates in four main segments: iron ore, copper, coal, and petroleum. The company is the world's largest producer of iron ore and the second-largest producer of copper.

Iron Ore: BHP's iron ore operations are located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The company's operations in the region include five mines, a railway network, and two port facilities.

Copper: BHP's copper operations are located in Chile, Peru, and the United States. The company's copper assets include the Escondida mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine.

Coal: BHP's coal operations are located in Australia, Colombia, and South Africa. The company produces both metallurgical coal (used in steelmaking) and thermal coal (used in electricity generation).

Petroleum: BHP's petroleum operations are located in Australia, the Gulf of Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Caribbean. The company produces both oil and gas.

Financial Performance

In the first half of the 2022 financial year, BHP reported a net profit of US$10.9 billion, up from US$3.9 billion in the same period the previous year. The company attributed the increase to higher commodity prices and increased production.

BHP's share price has also performed well in recent years, with the company's market capitalization reaching over A$300 billion in 2021.

Future Prospects

BHP is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for commodities, particularly from emerging economies such as China and India. The company has also been investing in renewable energy and technology to reduce its carbon footprint and improve its environmental performance.

In 2021, BHP announced plans to invest over US$5 billion in its petroleum business over the next five years, focusing on high-return growth opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico and Trinidad and Tobago.

Overall, ASX BHP is a well-established and financially sound company with a strong position in the global mining, metals, and petroleum markets. Its focus on sustainable and responsible business practices, combined with its diversified operations, make it a compelling investment opportunity for long-term investors.

Also check related tickers

ASX CBA

ASX FMG

ASX APT

ASX NAB

[jeneelestrange]

Istg some of you use “eurocentrism” to mean “I don’t care about anything that doesn’t immediately affect me” because for damn sure you guys are not lifting up the voices of EVERY SINGLE CLIMATE ZONE CHANGE

Bruh, I live in Louisiana, we’ve had….flecks of ice once every ten years? Maybe? So yeah that’s not gonna be noticeable or different, but it IS less cold even to me in the winter and takes longer to get cold, and it is DEFINITELY HOTTER. Like, DANGEROUSLY FUCKOFF HOTTER in the summer, it’s entirely possible that due to the wet bulb effect this area may be UNSAFE without air conditioning in the near future, if it isn’t already. I know people in India and Mexico are already dying from summer wet bulb heat waves without air conditioning! People were posting about that last summer?! I was reblogging it?!

And oh, on the topic of self-interest…..lol. Lmao. Each climate zone has been having its own climate tragedies that you’re assuming people aren’t paying attention to because what, they’re talking about snow? How do you know? Were you following all these people and what they were posting? Have YOU been paying attention to the various climate disasters in various climate zones? Why the assumed bad faith for others but not yourself? Like, I get the annoyance at the previous “Hurf durf air conditioning is wasteful, everyone should give it up because climate change, people only die from freezing to death, just wear less clothes and drink more water” and like READ ABOUT WET BULB EFFECT YOU IGNORANT SLUT, PEOPLE ARE DYING. But this? Is not that. The unusual droughts and floods in the Midwest? The back to back to BACK once-in-lifetime severity hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast?(‘They get those all the time, they’re used to it’ LOL NOT CATEGORY 4 EVERY OTHER YEAR, not hitting Lake Charles so damn often and hard you would think it’s Sodom and they can’t even recover and rebuild from the last one and people just have permanent blue tarps on their roof, not hurricanes randomly rerouting all the way up to New York and all we can think is “at least it’s not us for once”

This flippant “psst I never had snow” is missing the point entirely. If you haven’t noticed some sort of change to your climate environment, then you’re either too young, very unobservant, or don’t WANT to see it. My area’s economy RUNS on oil and gas, and it’s so obvious now that it’s the constant elephant in the room, the devil’s bargain we made that we dare not speak about because it’s frankly too depressing. It’s COMING for you, it’s just a question of how and how fast.

Christmas as a cultural icon is starting to get really dystopian in a climate sense, december has historically been a time of year in which there would be snow in a significant portion of europe and north america, and the fact that its not even icy this time of year and all the christmas songs and decorations reference a time of year that will likely never exist in the same way again in my life time is so strange.

[trendingnews19]

Source: Copernicus/ECMWF Note: Temperature anomalies relative to 1850-1900 averages. At the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, Earth finished up its hottest year in recorded history, scientists said on Friday. The previous hottest year was 2023. And the next one will be upon us before long: By continuing to burn huge amounts of coal, oil and gas, humankind has all but guaranteed it. The planet’s record-high average temperature last year reflected the weekslong, 104-degree-Fahrenheit spring heat waves that shuttered schools in Bangladesh and India. It reflected the effects of the bathtub-warm ocean waters that supercharged hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and cyclones in the Philippines. And it reflected the roasting summer and fall conditions that primed Los Angeles this week for the most destructive wildfires in its history. “We are facing a very new climate and new challenges, challenges that our society is not prepared for,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union monitoring agency. But even within this progression of warmer years and ever-intensifying risks to homes, communities and the environment, 2024 stood out in another unwelcome way. According to Copernicus, it was the first year in which global temperatures averaged more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above those the planet experienced at the start of the industrial age. For the past decade, the world has sought to avoid crossing this dangerous threshold. Nations enshrined the goal in the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change. “Keep 1.5 alive” was the mantra at United Nations summits. Yet here we are. Global temperatures will fluctuate somewhat, as they always do, which is why scientists often look at warming averaged over longer periods, not just a single year. But even by that standard, staying below 1.5 degrees looks increasingly unattainable, according to researchers who have run the numbers. Globally, despite hundreds of billions of dollars invested in clean-energy technologies, carbon dioxide emissions hit a record in 2024 and show no signs of dropping. One recent study published in the journal Nature concluded that the absolute best humanity can now hope for is around 1.6 degrees of warming. To achieve it, nations would need to start slashing emissions at a pace that would strain political, social and economic feasibility. But what if we’d started earlier? By spewing heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, humankind has lifted global temperatures to record highs. If nations had started reducing emissions in 2005, they could have made gradual cuts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. Starting in 2015, when the Paris agreement was adopted, would have required steeper cuts. Starting today would require cuts so drastic as to appear essentially impossible. “It was guaranteed we’d get to this point where the gap between reality and the trajectory we needed for 1.5 degrees was so big it was ridiculous,” said David Victor, a professor of public policy at the University of California, San Diego. The question now is what, if anything, should replace 1.5 as a lodestar for nations’ climate aspirations. “These top-level goals are at best a compass,” Dr. Victor said. “They’re a reminder that if we don’t do more, we’re in for significant climate impacts.” The 1.5-degree threshold was never the difference between safety and ruin, between hope and despair. It was a number negotiated by governments trying to answer a big question: What’s the highest global temperature increase — and the associated level of dangers, whether heat waves or wildfires or melting glaciers — that our societies should strive to avoid? The result, as codified in the Paris agreement, was that nations would aspire to hold warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while “pursuing efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees. Even at the time, some experts called the latter goal unrealistic, because it required such deep and rapid emissions cuts. Still, the United States, the European Union and other governments adopted it as a guidepost for climate policy. Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said the urgency of the 1.5 target spurred companies of all kinds — automakers, cement manufacturers, electric utilities — to start thinking hard about what it would mean to zero out their emissions by midcentury. “I do think that has led to some serious action,” Dr. Bertram said. But the high aspiration of the 1.5 target also exposed deep fault lines among nations. China and India never backed the goal, since it required them to curb their use of coal, gas and oil at a pace they said would hamstring their development. Rich countries that were struggling to cut their own emissions began choking off funding in the developing world for fossil-fuel projects that were economically beneficial. Some low-income countries felt it was deeply unfair to ask them to sacrifice for the climate given that it was wealthy nations — and not them — that had produced most of the greenhouse gases now warming the world. “The 1.5-degree target has created a lot of tension between rich and poor countries,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research organization. Costa Samaras, an environmental-engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University, compared the warming goals to health officials’ guidelines on, say, cholesterol. “We don’t set health targets on what’s realistic or what’s possible,” Dr. Samaras said. “We say, ‘This is what’s good for you. This is how you’re going to not get sick.’” “If we were going to say, ‘Well, 1.5 is likely out of the question, let’s put it to 1.75,’ it gives people a false sense of assurance that 1.5 was not that important,” said Dr. Samaras, who helped shape U.S. climate policy from 2021 to 2024 in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “It’s hugely important.” Scientists convened by the United Nations have concluded that restricting warming to 1.5 degrees instead of 2 would spare tens of millions of people from being exposed to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. It might mean the difference between a world that has coral reefs and Arctic sea ice in the summer, and one that doesn’t. Each tiny increment of additional warming, whether it’s 1.6 degrees versus 1.5, or 1.7 versus 1.6, increases the risks. “Even if the world overshoots 1.5 degrees, and the chances of this happening are increasing every day, we must keep striving” to bring emissions to zero as soon as possible, said Inger Anderson, the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program. Officially, the sun has not yet set on the 1.5 target. The Paris agreement remains in force, even as President-elect Donald J. Trump vows to withdraw the United States from it for a second time. At U.N. climate negotiations, talk of 1.5 has become more muted compared with years past. But it has hardly gone away. “With appropriate measures, 1.5 Celsius is still achievable,” Cedric Schuster, the minister of natural resources and environment for the Pacific island nation of Samoa, said at last year’s summit in Azerbaijan. Countries should “rise to the occasion with new, highly ambitious” policies, he said. To Dr. Victor of U.C. San Diego, it is strange but all too predictable that governments keep speaking this way about what appears to be an unachievable aim. “No major political leader who wants to be taken seriously on climate wants to stick their neck out and say, ‘1.5 degrees isn’t feasible. Let’s talk about more realistic goals,’” he said. Still, the world will eventually need to have that discussion, Dr. Victor said. And it’s unclear how it will go. “It could be constructive, where we start asking, ‘How much warming are we really in for? And how do we deal with that?’” he said. “Or it could look very toxic, with a bunch of political finger pointing.” Methodology The second chart shows pathways for reducing carbon emissions that would have a 66 percent chance of limiting global warming this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average.

[arfacapital]

State Street Global Market Outlook 2025 – Finding the Right Path

State Street Global Advisors' Market Outlook 2025 anticipates a year shaped by geopolitical tensions, monetary policy shifts, and evolving investment opportunities. The report emphasizes the importance of active portfolio diversification, leveraging thematic investments, and exploring alternative assets to navigate an environment characterized by slow-moving fragmentation and rising macroeconomic volatility. Key Themes and Strategic Insights 1. Global Economic and Market Outlook - Soft Landing Scenario: - Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve and ECB, are expected to continue rate cuts, supporting a soft economic landing. - Inflationary pressures have moderated, opening opportunities for equity and fixed-income markets. - Growth Drivers: - U.S. economic outperformance fueled by fiscal expansion and deregulation under a Trump administration. - Moderate growth in Europe, hindered by weak domestic demand and geopolitical uncertainties. - Resilience in emerging markets (EM), with stronger performances in Asia ex-China, led by India and Indonesia. - Risks: - Geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade conflicts, conflicts in Europe and the Middle East). - Volatility from policy changes, including tariffs and fiscal adjustments. 2. Equities - U.S. Equities: - Large-cap equities remain strong due to earnings growth and profitability in technology, utilities, and industrial sectors. - Small- and mid-cap stocks offer upside potential from cyclical recovery and regulatory tailwinds. - European Equities: - Opportunities in sectors like healthcare, industrials (renewables), and energy due to relative undervaluation. - Challenges from sluggish consumer demand and weak fixed investment. - Emerging Markets: - Asia ex-China equities benefit from regional trade integration and domestic consumption trends. - Latin America offers opportunities in commodity-linked sectors, while China faces structural growth headwinds. 3. Fixed Income - Favorable Environment for Sovereign Debt: - Rate cuts and easing inflation create attractive opportunities in U.S. Treasuries and other advanced economy sovereign bonds. - Bull steepening of yield curves anticipated, with duration management being critical. - Investment-Grade Credit: - Limited potential for spread compression; returns driven by carry rather than capital appreciation. - Select opportunities in securitized credit and short-dated high-yield debt. - Emerging Market Debt: - Local currency bonds in Asia and Latin America favored due to policy easing and attractive yield differentials. - Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. dollar strength. 4. Thematic and Alternative Investments - Thematic Investing: - AI and Blockchain technologies continue to gain traction, with applications expanding across industries. - Infrastructure investments, particularly in renewable energy and digital transformation, align with global sustainability trends. - Alternative Assets: - Real assets like commodities, real estate, and infrastructure provide diversification and inflation hedges. - Private equity and private credit opportunities offer enhanced returns and reduced volatility compared to traditional assets. 5. Regional Spotlight: GCC Region - Economic Transformation: - Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, are diversifying away from oil through investments in renewable energy, healthcare, and smart infrastructure. - GCC equity markets have outperformed broader EM indices, offering lower volatility and attractive valuations. - Fixed Income Growth: - Rapid expansion in GCC bond markets, with increased issuance of sukuk and green bonds supporting sustainable growth objectives. Portfolio Recommendations - Equity Focus: - Overweight U.S. large caps and mid-caps; selectively allocate to undervalued European sectors and resilient EM regions like India and Indonesia. - Fixed Income Strategies: - Prioritize duration exposure in sovereign debt; selectively allocate to high-yield and EM bonds for yield enhancement. - Thematic and Real Assets: - Invest in transformative technologies (AI, blockchain) and real assets (commodities, infrastructure) for diversification and growth. - Diversification Beyond 60/40: - Incorporate alternative strategies, such as hedge fund replication, private credit, and real estate, to enhance portfolio durability and reduce correlation risks. Conclusion State Street Global Advisors underscores the importance of adaptability and diversification in navigating a fragmented and volatile global landscape. By balancing traditional and alternative investments, focusing on thematic opportunities, and managing risks through active strategies, investors can optimize their portfolios for 2025 and beyond. State_Street_Global_Market_Outlook_2025_Finding_the_Right_PathDownload Read the full article

[dinaritexch]

Iraqi Dinar vs. Vietnamese Dong: A Comparative Analysis

The foreign exchange market is attractive and volatile and responds to changes in economic policies, political stability, and world trade. As for the less-known currencies, the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) and the Vietnamese Dong (VND) seem to be rather interesting for investors and enthusiasts in general. The two currencies have a history of their own and go through different economic indicators. This article gives a detailed understanding of them and a comparative overview of their present position with a focus on their past and prospects of investment.

Historical Background

The Iraqi Dinar

The Iraqi Dinar has been in circulation since Iraq gained its independence from Great Britain in 1932, as it replaced the India Rupee colony currency. Concerning the changes that occurred over the years, the most significant experiences were during the Gulf War and more so during the invasion of Iraq by the American forces in the year 2003. This led to economic sanctions and a consequent deep depreciation of the currency.

After 2003, the Central Bank of Iraq put into circulation newly designed Dinar notes with increased security to foster economic stability. This however is an illusion and as such the currency continues to be undervalued due to political instability and a dependence on oil exports.

The Vietnamese Dong

The Vietnamese Dong has been in circulation for 60 years since it was initially introduced in 194 in Vietnam during the early fight for freedom. There is a fact that, from time to time, the Dong has been redevised gradually, especially after the reunion of two Vietnam in 1978. The currency unit of this country has been relatively low for a long time due to the country’s economic classification as a developing nation.

Vietnam has been transforming gradually from a centrally planned economy which was to a market-oriented economy, this has made the Dong more stable. Vietnam is presently well recognized for its strong industrial base and growing export-oriented economy, which has played a part in favor of the Dong.

Economic Drivers

Iraq’s Economy

Having over 90% of the government’s income from oil, the economy of Iraq is highly centralized. However, this makes the Dinar dominated by global oil prices, unimaginable reserves in Iraq point to a fairly huge economic prospect.

Nevertheless, political instabilities, corruption, and poor transport infrastructure have remained a push factor to the diversification of the economy. The post-conflict rebuilding of the country has been shoddy which has exacerbated investor skepticism and the Dinar exchange rate.

Vietnam’s Economy

Vietnam’s economy is not solely dependent on exports but rather developed in manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism. It exports many goods, such as textile products, electronic products, and agricultural products.

However, compared to Iraq, Vietnam has had fairly political stability, which has encouraged the flow of free capital investments. Vietnam has adopted a free market economy as the central policy since ‘Doi Moi’ economic reforms were introduced in the mid and late 1980s. This has helped to ensure that Dong continues to appreciate, although it has a low level of inflation.

Current Exchange Rates and Trends

Iraqi Dinar (IQD)

The current exchange rate is 1 USD 1,317.33 ID. Its stability in the recent past has been, for the most part, driven by the Central Bank of Iraq interventions. The following interventions, such as maintaining large foreign currency reserves and conducting monetary policy measures, have reduced sharp up-and-down fluctuations. Nonetheless, as it depends on the stability of the oil income and governmental efficiency in managing economic risks, the Dinar is fairly vulnerable.

Vietnamese Dong (VND)

According to the current exchange rate, the Dong is equivalent to 25,318 VND to 1 USD. As mentioned earlier, it has a significantly lower face value as compared to the Dinar, but Dong has been gradually appreciating against most currencies due to growth in Vietnam’s economy. Such growth is supported by the expanding export market, increased FDI, and sound trade liberalization. The managed float policy of the SBV does not deviate too far from the policy while making the currency respond to other macroeconomic factors, so Dong is a more stable currency in which to invest.

Investment Potential

Investing in the Iraqi Dinar

Due to efforts to restore it as a foreign exchange reserve, the Iraqi Dinar has become a hot cake for speculative investors, especially those waiting for its revaluation. Some analysts and politicians think that improvements are attainable because of Iraq’s oil revenues and possible economic liberalization.

However, investing in the Dinar carries substantial risks:

Volatility

Due to the volatile security and political situation in Iraq, this currency is one of the most volatile around the globe. Over the past three decades, Iraq has experienced conflict, international embargo, and internal violence, which all affect the unit value of its currency. A stable political and economic situation in any country is a definite positive thing because investors are therefore protected from sharp value devaluation of the currency. However, the Dinar is not stable, and its value can be highly unpredictable and vulnerable, which is not good news for anyone trying to make a consistent profit from foreign exchange, especially when they have invested in the Dinar.

Limited Convertibility

The Iraqi Dinar cannot be purchased by foreign clients in the global Foreign Exchange market thanks to its extremely low availability. None of the dealers, in most cases, is willing to provide direct quotations for Dinars, and most of the time, investors have to search for specialized dealers who deal in such or engage in private transactions to buy or sell Dinars. This fact makes it less accessible to investment and brings issues of fraud or overly high premiums into the picture.

Uncertain Revaluation Prospects

So, one of the main reasons investors may cite for investing in the Dinar – the possibility of its revaluation – still seems more or less remote. The restoration of the value would need significant economic changes, stability, and a rich economy, which are the country’s future objectives. When and to what degree all of this might happen is unclear, which only brings the idea of investing in the Dinar as more closely aligned with speculation than a wise investment plan.

Investing in the Vietnamese Dong

The Vietnamese Dong is often viewed as a safer investment compared to the Dinar. Vietnam’s stable political environment and growing economy provide a more predictable outlook. Investors are drawn to:

Economic Growth

Vietnam’s GDP is continuing to grow much higher than many emerging markets. In the last decade, industrial development, the export sector and gradually growing domestic demand have sustained a high growth path for the country. Here the economic force has played a key role in improving investor confidence and for Dong’s gradual appreciation.

Trade Partnerships

Free trade agreements that the country is involved in improve its economy. Vietnam has acceded to numerous trade agreements; current free trade agreements are the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), revamped as the CPTPP, and the RCEP. These affect enhance Vietnam’s export capacity, fortify its manufacturing sector, and give the country FDI, all of which are beneficial to the Dong.

Currency Stability

Slowly and steadily rising Dong indicates the fact that underlying economic conditions in Vietnam are strengthening. This actual flow of policy of the State Bank of Vietnam has been quite useful in performing this dual role of controlling the stability of the currency and, at the same time, responding to the fluctuations in the market. It lowers unequal fluctuations and helps Dong maintain adequate synchronization with the country’s high economic growth.

Nevertheless, threats like Inflation and dependence on exports are dangers facing the Dong and may affect its value.

Currency Market Dynamics

Global Perception

Hopes and expectations of people of the whole world affect the valuation of the IQD and VND. The Dinar is also associated with Iraq’s struggling political environment that repels most conventional investors. On the other hand, Vietnam’s image as a burgeoning manufacturing power helps the Dong.

Government Policies

Iraq: The Central Bank of Iraq has used certain techniques to control the Dinar, such as controlling inflation and maintaining foreign currency reserves. However, he added that underlying reforms in the economic landscape are still necessary to support investor confidence.

Vietnam: The Dong uses the practices of managed floating exchange rate since the State Bank of Vietnam is in charge of the currency. The government is actively encouraging investment from overseas, and similar policies will continue to augur well for Dong’s future.

Key Takeaways

Similarities

Merging market Currencies

The IQD is the currency of a country that is considered an emerging market, and so is the VND. Iraq and Vietnam are considered countries with emergent economies that are predominantly dependent on certain types of industries, the main of which in Iraq could be considered an oil industry, while in Vietnam, it could be manufacturing and agriculture. At some point, we find that their currencies are a reflection of the economic uncertainty and future opportunities of these markets.

Managed Exchange Rate Policies

Unlike most other currencies that are floated in the foreign exchange market, both currencies are manipulated by respective central banks. The Central Bank of Iraq affects IQD’s exchange rate to stabilize the economy, and The State Bank of Vietnam manipulates the VND’s value to fund local exports and also curb the inflation rate.

Low Nominal Values

Both currencies are characterized by relatively low nominal values against major global currencies like the US Dollar. For example, the exchange rate for the VND is in the thousands or tens of thousands per USD, while the IQD, though not as extreme, also trades at a low nominal value compared to stronger currencies.

Currency Devaluation History:

The IQD has been greatly devalued in the past, while the VND has also been devalued at one point or another. After the Gulf War in the early 1990s and the ensuing sanctions, the value of IQD went down considerably. Likewise, similar inflation and devaluation were realized in the VND during the early 1990s and the liberalization of the Vietnamese economy. They have determined their present exchange rate systems and the markets’ impressions regarding them.

Differences

Economic Foundations:

The Iraqi Dinar has a significant connection with Iraq’s in which is over 90% dependent on oil sales. As for the Vietnamese Dong, the economy behind it has been more diversified, with manufacturing, agricultural sectors as well as technology exports. Vietnam’s economy is more diversified than that of Iraq which greatly depends on a specific sector.

Global Trade Integration:

Vietnam is heavily connected with the international market, mainly through exports. Since it has VND as its official currency, it exports electronics, garments, and agricultural products. Through participation in different FTAs, the Vietnamese Dong has an advantage. Iraq, on the other hand, mostly exports petroleum, and the IQD is much less used in the international Foreign Exchange Market outside of the petroleum business.

Inflation and Currency Value Trends:

Vietnam’s currency, the VND, has steadily been devalued over the years as the country looks for ways to compete in export markets. On the other hand, the IQD has undergone revaluation and is comparatively more stable because Iraq strives to support a fixed exchange rate, mainly because of the impact of oil prices. This makes it less volatile compared to the VND, whose rate of exchange is far more often due to market forces.

Monetary Policy Framework:

The Central Bank of Iraq and the State Bank of Vietnam work on different structural plans for monetary policies. The Central Bank of Iraq’s policies are primarily dictated by post-conflict stability and control over the oil revenues. The State Bank of Vietnam, on the other hand, is concerned with exporting competitiveness and controlling inflation within a fast-growing economy, often utilizing instruments such as interest rates and foreign exchange reserves. This has been evident in the way each country has set its monetary policy to suit the economic problems that prevail in each country.

Conclusion

The periods under consideration present two quite different stories in the global currency market: the Iraqi Dinar and the Vietnamese Dong. Ways forward for the Dinar greatly depend on the stability of the political situation and the development of a more diverse economy for Iraq. Unlike Dong’s slow ascent, which signals his poor economic forecasts and Vietnam’s sluggish economic performance, Dong’s gradual appreciation reflects Vietnam’s economic liberalization and high growth capability.

It is, therefore, important that any potential investor understand the contexts in which these currencies operate. Thus, the Dinar provides an opportunity to receive high risks and high results, and the Dong is more stable but has less perspective for investment. Of course, as with any other transaction involving acquiring an asset, profound analysis and risk assessment are the keys to achieving success.

Source:- Dinarit

[mariacallous]

It was only a matter of time before Russia’s fast-growing shadow fleet, a group of vessels whose owners do their utmost to conceal their identity while carrying oil to evade sanctions on Moscow, started becoming a serious maritime risk. Russian vessels are now regularly turning down pilotage in Danish waters, the Financial Times reports—a practice that not only breaches maritime etiquette but could also lead to a disastrous accident.

The collision involving a container ship and Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge in the United States on March 26 demonstrates the dangers involved when bulky ships vessels through difficult waters. Indeed, the Dali struck the bridge despite being steered by two pilots. Even if just a small share of vessels turn down pilotage, similar disasters risk becoming commonplace.

International maritime rules strongly recommend the use of pilots with specialized local knowledge for most vessels sailing through Denmark’s Great Belt, the narrow passage between the country’s largest islands. The Great Belt is not just narrow—it also has treacherous waters and is extremely busy: Every year, some 70,000 vessels pass through the Great Belt and the nearby Sound (Oresund), which sits between the shores of Denmark and Sweden.  It’s standard practice to follow international maritime recommendations and take on an experienced local pilot when it comes to difficult navigation routes, whether that’s the Great Belt or the Suez Canal.

The Geography of the Danish Straits

For the sake of maritime order and safety, Copenhagen could block ships that refuse pilotage. That, though, might trigger a standoff with Russia—if Moscow admits its role as a patron of the shadow fleet. Indeed, blocking these rule-breaking vessels would itself violate international maritime rules. Before forcing such a choice, however, the open-source intelligence community could help by revealing the identities and whereabouts of shadow vessels’ owners.

Since the beginning of this year, at least 20 tankers that are suspected to be shadow vessels transporting Russian oil have refused to take Danish pilots on board, according to internal reports leaked to the Financial Times and the Danish research group Danwatch.

That’s at least 20 tankers that have sailed through the Baltic Sea—in most cases via the Gulf of Finland, passing through the exclusive economic zones of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, and Germany—into Danish waters and the Great Belt, from which they have traveled on to Kattegat (comprising Danish and Swedish waters) and Skagerrak (Danish and Norwegian waters) and into the North Sea and the oceans that will bring them to their buyers in countries such as India and China.

Shadow vessels are clapped-out ships that spend their last remaining years providing transportation to and from sanctioned countries that official vessels and their owners won’t touch. The risk that these and other dark vessels pose to coastal states is further increased by the fact that they sail under the flags of countries unlikely to come to anyone’s aid if they cause accidents or incidents (Gabon is a particular favorite) and don’t undergo regular maintenance. Any accident—be it a collision or an oil leak—is likely to be doubly disastrous as a result.

Add to that the fact that their owners are hard to track down—and that they lack proper insurance. If a shadow vessel were to sustain a massive oil spill in, say, Finnish waters, Finnish authorities and taxpayers would end up on the hook. And shadow vessels are more likely than law-abiding ones to be involved in accidents since they frequently turn off their AIS (automatic identification system), a GPS-like navigation tool that allows vessels to see one another.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s attempts—often successful—to avoid sanctions have caused the shadow fleet to balloon; it’s currently thought to encompass some 1,400 vessels, though like all illicit activities, it’s impossible to measure precisely. (My report about the shadow fleet from last December provides an in-depth examination of the ships and the threats posed by them.)

If oil spills do occur, the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds assist the countries affected. But if oil and other toxic spills increase substantially, as they’re likely to do as a result of the shadow fleet, the fund won’t have enough money to compensate everyone.

So should Denmark simply block shadow vessels refusing pilotage, or all shadow vessels for that matter?

Not so fast. Yes, shadow vessels violate international maritime rules and conventions—but the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) gives all vessels the right of so-called innocent passage, meaning the right to sail through other countries’ territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. The fact that shadow vessels violate maritime rules doesn’t give coastal states the right to violate the rules in turn.

And, noted retired Rear Adm. Nils Wang—a former chief of the Danish Navy, which also covers a range of coast guard tasks—“according to international law, the Danish Straits are international straits and are not under Danish jurisdiction. For this reason, too, Denmark doesn’t have the legal right to force ships to use pilots.”

Though most ships follow the IMO’s recommendations and use pilotage, for which they pay a fee, over the years there have been some cheapskates that turned down pilotage.  In some cases, those ships caused oil spills. “Every time there’s a leak from a vessel that didn’t use pilotage, there’s an outcry to ban offenders, but we can’t,” Wang said.

Then, in the mid-2010s, the number of cheapskates traveling without pilotage grew.

Danish authorities got creative and announced that if ships with drafts (the amount that the extends beneath the waterline) of more than 11 meters (about 36 feet) didn’t request pilotage, then the Danish authorities would call them on VHF, the radio used by sailors, and remind them that they weren’t following international recommendations, and that Denmark would report them to their flag state and the IMO.

What’s more, a call on VHF allows every vessel in the vicinity to hear the conversation. “And then we started doing it,” Wang said. “And it changed behavior, because it was embarrassing for the ships and the captains to be called out like this. But if you’re part of the dark fleet, you don’t give a damn. Calling these vessels out won’t make a difference.”

Coastal states do have the right to block access in their territorial waters in certain cases—such as if transiting vessels are in poor repair or lack proper insurance. But when nations agreed and signed UNCLOS in 1982, a situation in which a country systematically evades globalization-based economic sanctions by using a fleet of dark vessels was inconceivable.

In response to the emergency of the shadow fleet, the world’s UNCLOS signatories could convene to make pilotage in sensitive waters mandatory. But such negotiations would take a long time, and under the current geopolitical conditions may never reach a conclusion. And because the Danish Straits are international waters, Denmark can’t impose new rules on its own.

This is globalization in a fiercely geopolitical era: Russia can invade Ukraine and evade the resulting sanctions by means of a fleet that sails through law-abiding countries’ waters—and their governments can’t stop it. On the contrary, with Russia now having joined Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea in using a shadow fleet, more countries will conclude that misbehaving and incurring economic sanctions is no big deal. And trade using dark vessels is cheaper than using legally operating ones.

An even larger shadow fleet would, of course, increase the risks both for marine wildlife and regular shipping. If a Russian shadow vessel collides in the Danish Straits with a legal merchant vessel, or even a Danish Navy vessel, what would Denmark do? What would NATO do?

But for now, there’s one group of dark-fleet operators that can be targeted completely legally and without risk of geopolitical escalation: the shadow vessels’ owners. They are plentiful and hide behind post office box addresses in countries such as the United Arab Emirates—because they don’t want to emerge from the shadows.

On the good side in this standoff, though, we have a large and growing community of open-source investigators, both professionals and amateurs. These investigators should take on a good deed for the global maritime order and investigate shadow-vessel owners, then share their identity and activities. Some may be hardened criminals immune to the embarrassment of public scrutiny, but many others may simply be ordinary businesspeople who have spotted an opportunity.

Just as with the ships once called out on Danish radio, public shame may be one way to force people to act for the better.

[ivankahasbeentreatedsounfairly]

The NY Times

By Johanna Lemola and Lynsey Chutel

A day after the Finnish authorities seized an oil tanker suspected of severing vital undersea cables, NATO said on Friday that it would step up security in northern seas and the European Union threatened new sanctions against Russia amid growing concern about a covert campaign to sabotage European infrastructure.

The authorities in Finland said they had confiscated material from onboard the ship, the Eagle S, an aging oil tanker registered in the Cook Islands in the South Pacific. The vessel is being held under police and naval guard in the Gulf of Finland, the police said on Friday.

The authorities said the tanker might be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which President Vladimir V. Putin has used to circumvent Western-imposed sanctions on Russian oil exports and to conduct acts of sabotage.

The five cables, including a cable that carries power from Finland to Estonia, as well as four other cables carrying data were damaged before the tanker was seized on Thursday. An analyst said the use of such tankers to intentionally sabotage European infrastructure would be an unusual escalation by Russia.

How did the seizure unfold?

Finland’s energy grid operator, Fingrid, alerted the police that an undersea power cable, Estlink 2, had been damaged on Wednesday. The power company had no idea what happened, but police officials suspected that it followed a pattern of similar incidents in the last year.

Moving quickly, the Finnish Police said they teamed up with the Finnish Border Guard, forming a special unit to investigate a ship they suspected of cutting the cable: the Eagle S.

After midnight on Thursday, lowered by military helicopters, the special unit boarded the ship, the police said. The Finnish officers took over the bridge and prevented the ship from sailing further. Officers then collected material and interviewed the ship’s captain and crew members, who were cooperative, the police said.

Soon afterward, leaders in Finland and Estonia said they believed that the cables were likely cut in an act of sabotage.

“If three similar incidents happen within a year, it can’t be a coincidence or accident,” Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, said on Friday.

As the investigation continues, the ship remains under guard. As a Finnish Defense Forces missile boat and a Border Guard patrol vessel guard the ship, officers from the National Bureau of Investigations and other security authorities inspected the craft. Finnish customs authorities have also seized the ship’s cargo of fuel.

The Estonian Defense Forces said its navy had stepped up patrols around the remaining Estlink 1 cable to secure the energy connection to Estonia from Finland. The Estonian Navy is cooperating with its Finnish counterpart and the existing NATO naval mission in the region.

What do we know about the ship?

The Eagle S is a 70,000-ton crude oil tanker that is more than 750 feet long, according to shipping data. The condition of the ship, which was built in 2006, has raised safety concerns. In July, Lloyds List, a London-based maritime analytics company, raised concerns over the vessel’s safety record. The ship, the report said, was part of a fleet of 24 aging vessels all flying a Cook Islands flag, with opaque ownership structures.

The Eagle S is managed by Peninsular Maritime, a company based outside Mumbai, India. The company manages seven other vessels. A staff member not authorized to speak to the media said the Finnish authorities had not communicated with the company about the episode. The ship’s captain was complying with the investigation and had communicated with Peninsular Maritime headquarters, the staff member said.

The Eagle S is owned by Caravella, a shipping company based in the United Arab Emirates that specializes in transporting oil and gas, according to the company’s website. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

“It’s a sanctions evader, it’s really dangerous, it’s just a piece of rust bucket floating junk of steel,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a principal analyst at Lloyds List who compiled reports on the Eagle S.

In September, the vessel transferred its shipping class to the Indian Register of Shipping from the American Bureau of Shipping, an oversight organization that monitors maritime safety standards, according to its database.

The shift may have been intended to avoid further scrutiny after the American bureau planned to investigate the Eagle S, Ms. Wiese Bockmann said.

Lauri Läänemets, Estonia’s interior minister, said it would be “naïve” to think that three incidents since October 2023 “could be merely a coincidence.”

“We know about Russia’s shadow fleet operating in our area, and we know Russia is systematically conducting hybrid warfare against its neighboring NATO/EU countries,” Mr. Läänemets said in an emailed comment to The New York Times. “It’s time to drop the illusions and face it: In the context of hybrid warfare, we must not only focus on military threats but also consider hybrid threats.”

What is Russia’s shadow fleet?

After Mr. Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union and its allies responded by imposing price caps on Russian oil transported by sea. The aim was to hobble Russia’s ability to finance its war effort by curbing revenue from its oil and gas sector.

To skirt the restrictions, the Kremlin invested billions of dollars in a fleet of mostly unmarked tankers not easily traced to Russia. These fleets, described as shadow, dark or gray fleets, employ all sorts of tactics to avoid detection or hide their true origin.

Now, nearly 70 percent of Russia’s oil is being transported by so-called shadow tankers, according to an analysis published in October by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, a Ukraine-based think tank.

Many sail under the flags of other nations, like the Central African country of Gabon, and sell fuel to buyers in countries like India and China, which are not bound by the price cap. Vessels have also been known to jam their signals to hide their location.

The tankers’ ownership is also shifted from Russian companies under sanctions to new entities, which are often shell companies with opaque ownership, according to research by the European Commission.

The fleet also relies on ship-to-ship transfers, transferring liquid bulk cargo from one vessel to another in open waters. The transfer creates a huge environmental risk, which is exacerbated by the dilapidated ships, said Ms. Wiese Bockmann, of Lloyds List.

Still, this may be the first time a ship that is part of this shadow fleet has been taken into custody over suspected sabotage, Ms. Wiese Bockmann said.

How have NATO members responded?

Finland, which joined NATO in 2023, quickly called on its allies. Both Finland and Estonia asked NATO to beef up its security in the area to counter sabotage.

A stronger NATO presence in the Baltic Sea, especially around critical infrastructure, would support smaller states who now shoulder the burden of repairing European infrastructure after acts of sabotage like this, Finland’s president, Mr. Stubb, said.

The episode underscores growing insecurity in the Baltic Sea, with repeated incidents of severed cables, as well as reports of Russian oil tankers flying under different flags to avoid European Union sanctions.

“NATO will enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea,” Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary-general, said on social media. After a call with Mr. Stubb, Mr. Rutte also said NATO would support the Finnish-led investigation.

The European Commission, condemning the destruction of infrastructure and suspected actions by Russia, said it would propose targeted sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet.

“The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia’s war budget,” the commission said in a statement. “We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/27/world/europe/finland-ship-russia-sabotage.html

[asmitabissblogger]

Gulf Superfleet Suraksha Bandhan: Ensuring Health And Safety For India’s Trucking Heroes

Gulf Oil, one of the leading brands in engine lubricants, reaffirmed its strong commitment to the well-being of Indian truckers with the 6th edition of the Gulf Superfleet Suraksha Bandhan campaign. This year, the focus was on a vital but often overlooked need—clean drinking water for truckers.

The campaign, held across 15 cities in India, transformed bustling transport nagars into vibrant and festive spaces. Gulf Oil engaged the trucking community with exciting games, live music, and celebrity appearances, creating an unforgettable experience for all.

Central to the campaign was the distribution of 16,000 water purifiers to truckers. Understanding the difficulties they face in accessing clean drinking water during long journeys, Gulf Oil sought to address this crucial issue, helping improve their health and safety on the road.

In partnership with 98.3 Mirchi, the initiative garnered significant attention, both digitally and on-air. Mirchi RJs, along with popular trucker influencers, covered the events extensively, sharing real-time updates and stories from the campaign.

Expressing his pride in the initiative, Mr. Ravi Chawla, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer of Gulf Oil Lubricants India, said, "Suraksha Bandhan is more than just a CSR initiative; it's a reflection of our deep-rooted commitment to the trucking community. By providing clean drinking water, we aim to make their journeys safer and more comfortable."

Mr. Ajay Hinduja, Member of the Hinduja Family, also commended the initiative, stating, "Truckers are the lifeblood of our economy, and it's our responsibility to safeguard their health. Gulf Oil's Suraksha Bandhan is a testament to that responsibility, and I believe it will continue making a meaningful difference in their lives."

Mirchi VP & Business Director Mr. Akshay Oberoi echoed these sentiments, saying, "We at Mirchi are thrilled to partner with Gulf Oil on Gulf Superfleet Suraksha Bandhan initiative. It's a fantastic opportunity to use our platform to highlight the challenges faced by truckers and to support their well-being. The response from the trucking community has been overwhelming, and we're proud to be a part of this meaningful campaign and truly stood by our moto of mirchi sunne waale always khush.”

The overwhelming gratitude from the truckers who received the water purifiers reflected the significant impact of the campaign. As Gulf Oil continues to lead with purpose, it remains committed to identifying and addressing the needs of the trucking community, ensuring safer and healthier journeys for India’s unsung heroes.