#Future of electric vehicles in India

[semcoinfratechworld]

Is India's Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Ecosystem Ready to Scale up Mass Adoption?

India is on the brink of a major shift in its automotive industry.  Driven by the global and domestic push towards electric vehicles (EVs), the country’s EV manufacturing ecosystem is showing promise and ambitious growth projections. It shows a clear commitment to sustainable mobility. However, the road to mass adoption is fraught with challenges that need to be addressed if India is to fully capitalize on this opportunity.

Promising Growth Projections

The potential for growth in India’s EV market is enormous. By 2030, EVs could account for over 40 percent of the automotive market, generating a staggering USD 100 billion in revenue. The penetration rates are particularly impressive for two and three-wheelers, where EVs are expected to make up 80 percent of the market. Even for four-wheelers, the projection is significant, with a 50 percent market share anticipated by 2030. These numbers underscore the growing acceptance of EVs in India and the opportunity for the country to become a global leader in sustainable transportation.

Challenges Hindering Scalability

Despite the promising outlook, several hurdles stand in the way of scaling up EV manufacturing to meet mass adoption. These challenges must be addressed if India’s EV ecosystem is to realize its full potential.

High Ownership Costs: One of the most significant barriers to mass adoption is the high cost of owning an EV in India. This is primarily due to the limited charging infrastructure, which makes it difficult for consumers to rely on EVs for their daily commute. Additionally, there are deficits in battery cell production (20-25 percent) and semiconductor chips (40-50 percent), both of which are critical components for EV manufacturing. These shortages drive up the costs, making EVs less accessible to the average consumer.

Import Dependency: India’s reliance on imports for key EV components is another major challenge. Currently, 60-70 percent of battery cells, e-motor magnets, and electronics are sourced from China. Several lithium-ion battery manufacturing equipment suppliers in India are dependent on the import of cells and assembly equipment. This dependency not only creates supply chain vulnerabilities but also raises concerns about the sustainability of scaling up EV manufacturing. To reduce this reliance, India needs to invest in building local capacities for producing these critical components.

Scalability Issues in Local Manufacturing: While there are efforts to boost local manufacturing, many small enterprises in India are struggling to keep up with the growing demand for EV components. These scalability issues are exacerbated by a fragmented supply chain, where small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face coordination challenges that can lead to delays in production and distribution. This fragmentation hinders the efficiency of the entire EV ecosystem.

Lack of Standardization: Another significant challenge is the lack of standardization in EV manufacturing, particularly in battery specifications. This lack of uniformity complicates component sourcing and integration, making it difficult for manufacturers to scale up production quickly and efficiently. Standardization is crucial for streamlining the manufacturing process and ensuring that components are interchangeable and easily available.

Conclusion

India’s EV manufacturing ecosystem is at a critical juncture. While the growth potential is immense, several challenges must be addressed to scale up production and achieve mass adoption. By focusing on local manufacturing, expanding infrastructure, standardizing components, and supporting SMEs, India can overcome these hurdles and position itself as a global leader in electric mobility. The journey ahead is challenging, but with the right strategies and collaborations, India’s EV revolution is not just possible—it’s inevitable.

[indextrader]

Automotive and Electric Vehicles future in india?

Image by freepik The future of the automotive and electric vehicle (EV) sector in India looks promising due to several factors driving growth and transformation: Government Policies and Incentives: The Indian government has introduced various policies and incentives to promote the adoption of EVs. Schemes like the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) aim to…

[futureev]

ENGINEERING TOMORROW’S DELIVERIES, TODAY!!

In today’s digital era, e-commerce has revolutionized shopping habits, eliminating the need for physical store visits. This transformation underscores the rising dominance of online retail, facilitated by the convenience of smartphones and internet connectivity. 

With the rise of e-commerce comes the crucial role of delivery agents and vehicles in ensuring timely and cost-effective product deliveries. As sustainability gains momentum, Electric Vehicles (EVs) emerge as the preferred clean mobility solution, aligning with the global shift towards eco-friendly practices. 

FAME 3 – Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India Phase II.

This is a government scheme aimed at accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in India. It offers incentives for the purchase of electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and four-wheelers, making EVs more affordable for consumers. The scheme also focuses on developing charging infrastructure for EVs, including setting up charging stations in cities and along highways. This scheme also promotes battery-swapping technology, allowing EV users to swap out depleted batteries for fully charged ones quickly. All of this is done to create a more sustainable transportation sector for India, as well as a secure future for the environment we live in. 

In the Interim budget of this year, the finance minister has allocated Rs 2671.33 crore for FAME III scheme but details of it are likely to be announced by the new government in the main budget in July 2024. It is almost a 44% cut from the allocation of FY 2023-24, but Industry expects the government will hike this amount in the main budget.

Read more at:

DIPLOS – the paradigm shift in hyper-local delivery EV technology: 

Founded in 2020, Numeros Motors, headquartered in Bengaluru, has been dedicatedly engaged in research and development efforts to introduce innovative electric vehicles. Their purpose-built products are poised to revolutionize the EV landscape. The inaugural offering from Numeros Motors, Diplos pro, and Diplos i-pro, with its cutting-edge features and design, is specifically tailored to address issues plaguing electric vehicle adoption for last-mile deliveries. 

Diplos takes the dual challenges of poor charging infrastructure and limited range per charge, head-on! 

It boasts an impressive 140 km range, offering users the freedom to travel long distances without concerns about running out of power. Its innovative double-battery design enables continuous operation by allowing one battery to charge while the other powers the vehicle. Additionally, users can harness both batteries simultaneously for extended mileage, eliminating the need for frequent recharging.

Unlike other brands, Diplos is easy to own. 

Diplos pro and Diplos i-pro present a highly affordable option, complemented by government subsidies dedicated to promoting EV adoption. With convenient finance options available, owning a vehicle has never been easier for customers. 

Diplos does not compromise on rider comfort and safety. 

This EV comes with dual disc brakes ensuring superior stopping power, wider seats for added comfort, and a robust front suspension for smooth, shock-free rides. Its extended wheelbase guarantees exceptional stability and handling. 

Great news indeed, for all our delivery superheroes!

[martin-cambell]

Electric Vehicles Future in India – Decoding The Evolution and Prospects

In the face of the global climate crisis, the embrace of electric vehicles (EVs) has taken center stage as an essential step towards achieving national emission targets and broader global climate objectives, including the crucial 1.5-degree Celsius limit. India, recognizing the urgency of the EV future, has embarked on an ambitious journey towards sustainability, with more than 50% of its states introducing EV-friendly policies to incentivize the transition to cleaner transportation.

The Roadmap for the Future: India envisions a future where EVs play a central role, aiming for a 30% penetration of EVs in passenger cars, 70% in commercial vehicles, and 80% in two and three-wheelers by 2030. This ambitious goal is propelled by major players in the automotive industry, actively championing the transition to renewable energy and exploring innovative solutions within the EV market.

Strides in EV Insulation: Innovation is thriving in the realm of EV insulation for batteries. Solutions are being developed to achieve higher voltages and longer ranges through efficient thermal management. Materials like tapes, films, solid epoxy insulating resins, and advanced cooling fillers, such as boron nitride, are employed to enhance thermal conductivity, improve performance, reliability, and reduce wastage.

Fresh Ceramic Inclusion: Ceramic fillers, particularly boron nitride, play a crucial role in advancing EV technology. These fillers enhance thermal conductivity and maintain electrical insulation, proving to be more thermally conductive and efficient than traditional counterparts. Innovations like hollow glass bubbles contribute to weight reduction, thermal insulation, and noise reduction in EV components.

Assembly Solutions for EV Batteries: Innovative bonding and joining solutions, including adhesives and battery sealants, simplify assembly processes, reduce costs, and enhance overall efficiency in EV battery manufacturing. These solutions represent a significant step forward in the evolution of electric vehicle technology.

Sustainability Initiatives: Sustainability is a fundamental pillar in the journey towards the EV future. Companies are actively engaged in creating sustainable products and solutions tailored for the evolving EV market, contributing to safer wastewater management and reducing the carbon footprint.

Modernizing Powertrains for EVs: Efforts are directed not only towards addressing battery concerns but also maximizing range through highly optimized powertrains. Innovations focus on minimizing motor size and weight, enhancing energy efficiency without compromising power, and improving the power density and efficiency of electric vehicle powertrains.

The Future of Electric Vehicles in India: India's EV market is on the brink of a remarkable transformation, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 49% between 2022 and 2030. The nation aims for 10 million annual EV sales by 2030, supported by a significant budget allocation for essential capital investments, steering the nation towards comprehensive energy transition and ambitious net-zero targets by 2070.

Conclusion: India's journey towards a cleaner and more sustainable EV future is underway. With a focus on sustainability and ambitious goals, the combined efforts of the government, industry, and innovators promise exponential growth in the EV ecosystem. Despite challenges, the trajectory is promising, offering a glimpse into a future where electric vehicles drive India towards a greener and more sustainable transportation landscape.

To read more, click here.

[amin-tech-blogs]

The Latest Trends and Technologies in India

Introduction:

India, with its rapidly growing economy and burgeoning tech industry, is witnessing a remarkable surge in innovative trends and cutting-edge technologies. From artificial intelligence and blockchain to renewable energy and digital transformation, India is embracing the future with open arms. In this article, we will explore the latest trends and technologies that are shaping various sectors in India and driving the nation towards a more prosperous and technologically advanced future.

Digital Transformation:

One of the most significant trends in India is the widespread adoption of digital transformation across industries. With the government's push towards a digital economy and initiatives like "Digital India," businesses and organizations are embracing technology to streamline operations and enhance customer experiences. E-commerce, online banking, and digital payments have become ubiquitous, enabling greater convenience and accessibility for the masses.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML):

India is making remarkable strides in the field of AI and ML. From chatbots and virtual assistants to predictive analytics and automation, AI is revolutionizing various sectors, including healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. Startups and tech giants alike are investing in AI research and development, making India a formidable player in the global AI landscape.

Internet of Things (IoT):

The Internet of Things is transforming the way people interact with everyday devices and objects. India's IoT market is expanding rapidly, enabling smart homes, connected vehicles, and smart city initiatives. mobile app development services in agriculture are also empowering farmers with real-time data and insights, enhancing productivity and sustainability.

Blockchain Technology:

Blockchain technology is gaining momentum in India, with numerous sectors exploring its potential. Fintech companies are leveraging blockchain for secure and transparent transactions, while supply chain management and healthcare are also benefiting from its immutable and decentralized nature. Government initiatives are exploring the use of blockchain for record-keeping and identity verification.

Renewable Energy:

India is committed to embracing renewable energy sources to combat climate change and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. The country is a global leader in solar energy adoption, with ambitious targets for solar power capacity expansion. Wind energy and other renewable sources are also gaining traction, driving sustainable development in the energy sector.

5G Technology:

The rollout of 5G technology in India is highly anticipated. With its promise of ultra-fast internet speeds and low latency, 5G is expected to revolutionize communication, entertainment, and various industries. Telecom operators and tech companies are gearing up to deploy 5G networks, paving the way for a digitally connected future.

Electric Vehicles (EVs):

India is witnessing a surge in the adoption of electric vehicles as part of its efforts to reduce air pollution and promote sustainable transportation. The government's initiatives and incentives are encouraging the development and adoption of EVs across the country.

HealthTech and Telemedicine:

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of telemedicine and digital health solutions in India. HealthTech startups are providing remote healthcare services, teleconsultations, and health monitoring devices, making healthcare more accessible and efficient, especially in rural areas.

EdTech:

The EdTech sector is booming in India, especially after the pandemic-induced shift to online education. Online learning platforms and digital educational content are becoming increasingly popular, empowering students with personalized and accessible learning experiences.

Cybersecurity:

As digital adoption grows, so does the need for robust cybersecurity measures. India is investing in cybersecurity technologies and expertise to safeguard critical infrastructure, financial systems, and personal data.

Conclusion:

India's relentless pursuit of technological advancements is shaping its future as a digital powerhouse. The latest trends and technologies, such as digital transformation, AI, IoT, blockchain, and renewable energy, are driving innovation and progress across various sectors. With a strong focus on sustainability, inclusivity, and digital accessibility, India is poised to embrace the benefits of technology and make a significant impact on the global stage. As the nation continues to evolve and adapt to technological changes, it paves the way for a more prosperous and technologically advanced India.

[jhannatofficial]

Top 5 Electric Bikes in India: Embracing Sustainable and Thrilling Rides

[gowiththevibe]

https://eveium.in/booking.php

Our belief: an environment conscious customer is equally conscious about his investments in an EV. We aim to honor this by providing our users with all information transparently, emphasizing on our adhere to safety guidelines and strict quality protocols that build us. EVeium brings to you, smart mobility. Made in India. For India.

[motogadi]

Revving Up for Growth: Volkswagen Plans Major Expansion into India, Focusing on Electric SUVs!"

Volkswagen plans to revisit its strategy for India amid geopolitical uncertainty in China and sees India as a potential growth market. German automaker Volkswagen (VW) plans to revisit its strategy for the Indian market amid geopolitical uncertainty in China. VW sees India as a potential growth market and is considering expanding its product range, particularly in the SUV segment. The company…

[electrifyingcommute]

https://eveium.in/

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from the Substack Distilled:

In the last few months, the Biden administration has quietly passed multiple federal policies that will transform the United States economy and wipe out billions of tons of future greenhouse gas emissions. 

The new policies have received little attention outside of wonky climate circles. And that is a problem.

Earlier this year, I wrote that Biden has done more to mitigate climate change than any President before him. For decades, environmentalists tried and failed to convince lawmakers to pass even the most marginal climate policies. It wasn’t until Biden took office that the logjam broke and the climate policies flowed. And yet few American voters are hearing this story in an election year of huge consequence.

It’s been two and a half months since I wrote that article. In that short time, the Biden administration has passed a handful of climate policies that will collectively cut more than 10 billion tons of planet-warming pollution over the next three decades, more than the annual emissions of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the entire continent of Europe—combined.

One climate policy that flew under the radar recently was the administration's latest energy efficiency rule, unveiled at the beginning of May. The new rules will reduce the amount of energy that water heaters use by encouraging manufacturers to sell models with more efficient heat pump technology. The new regulation is expected to save more energy than any federal regulation in history. 

Most people give little thought to how the water in their homes is heated, but water heaters are the second-largest consumer of energy in the average American home and one of the largest sources of climate pollution in the country. 

A few days before the administration announced its water heater efficiency rules, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced another sweeping policy.

According to the new rules, existing coal power plants will need to either shut down or install carbon capture technology capable of removing 90% of their carbon pollution. The policy will also require any new natural gas power plants that provide baseload power—the ones that run throughout the day and night, as opposed to the peaker plants that only run for a small fraction of hours in the year—to install carbon capture technology. 

The new power sector rules are effectively a death blow to coal power in America, which has slowly faded over the last two decades but still emits more carbon emissions than almost every country in the world. 

The water heater rules and power plant regulations will help the country meet its goal of cutting emissions by 50% by 2030. But impactful as they will be, they weren’t the most important climate policy that the Biden administration passed in the last two months. 

That honor goes to the EPA’s tailpipe rules, which are set to transform the auto industry over the next decade.

Today the transportation sector is the largest source of climate pollution in the United States. Within the sector, passenger cars and trucks are the biggest contributors to emissions. While electric vehicle adoption has grown in recent years, America lags behind many other countries in decarbonizing its vehicle stock. 

The EPA’s new rules will force automakers to reduce the amount of pollution and carbon emissions that come from their vehicles. The federal policy doesn’t specifically mandate that automakers produce EVs or stop selling gas-powered cars but instead regulates the average carbon emissions per mile of a manufacturer's entire fleet over the next decade. That means automakers can still sell gas-guzzling, carbon-spewing trucks in 2035. They’ll just need to sell a lot more EVs or plug-in hybrids to bring their average fleet emissions down if they do.

Like the power plant rules, the EPA’s new auto regulations are designed to avoid being thrown out by a conservative and hostile Supreme Court. 

[rideboomindia]

RideBoom Revolutionizes Transportation with Innovative Solutions and Unmatched Convenience

RideBoom India is expanding its innovative ridesharing services to 20 more cities across India. Providing affordable, eco-friendly transportation options to the masses.

RideBoom, the leading transportation service provider, is proud to announce its commitment to revolutionizing the transportation industry with innovative solutions and unmatched convenience for riders and drivers alike.

Unmatched Convenience

RideBoom is dedicated to providing unmatched convenience compared to other transportation services. With the RideBoom app, users can easily book a car, taxi, or delivery service right from their mobile devices. The app connects users with nearby drivers or couriers, allowing them to get to their destination or receive their deliveries quickly and efficiently.

Innovative Solutions

RideBoom is constantly innovating to provide the best possible experience for its users. The company has recently expanded its Bike Taxi Service to additional cities, offering an eco-friendly and efficient mode of transportation for short-distance travel. RideBoom is also exploring the integration of electric vehicles into its fleet, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability and the EV revolution.

Commitment to Safety and Reliability

At the core of RideBoom's mission is a dedication to providing safe and reliable transportation services. The company has implemented stringent safety measures and training protocols to ensure that its drivers and couriers deliver a secure and comfortable experience for all users.

Transforming the Ride-Hailing Industry

RideBoom's innovative approach and unwavering commitment to customer satisfaction have positioned the company as a leader in the transportation industry. By continuously introducing new features and adapting to changing market conditions, RideBoom is redefining the way people and goods move, ultimately transforming the ride-hailing landscape.

"RideBoom is committed to revolutionizing the transportation industry and providing our users with the best possible experience," said the RideBoom founder. "We are excited to continue innovating and expanding our services to meet the evolving needs of our customers."

For more information about RideBoom India and its services, please visit https://rideboom.com/india/

About RideBoom India

RideBoom India is the leading ridesharing platform in the country, providing affordable, convenient, and eco-friendly transportation solutions to commuters across India. Founded in 2020, the company has experienced rapid growth and now operates in many cities, connecting passengers with a network of verified drivers. RideBoom India is committed to revolutionizing the way people commute and contributing to a more sustainable future.

[newspatron]

India's Electric Vehicle Revolution: Charged Up for the Future

Share your thoughts! What excites you most about India's EV revolution? What questions do you have? Let's discuss!

हिन्दी में पढ़ना चाहें तो आप इस लेख को न्यूजपैट्रन हिन्दी पर पढ़ सकते है [इलेक्ट्रिक वाहन: भारत का नया और हरा भविष्य – इलेक्ट्रिक वाहन भारत में तेजी से बढ़ रहे हैं, जो आर्थिक, पर्यावरणीय, और ऊर्जा सुरक्षा के लिए लाभदायक हैं। इस लेख में, आप इलेक्ट्रिक वाहनों के बारे में सब कुछ…

[reasonsforhope]

Good Climate News: Headline Roundup April 1st through April 15th, 2023

Contrary to what you might expect, there's actually way more good climate news stories than I have time to post about individually. (Especially now that my health is better and I'm back to working more!) Which itself is fantastic news!

Some stories are big, some are small, but they all add up. All over the world, people are doing far more than we realize to help save the planet - and ourselves.

I'm posting this is mid-May bc I've gotten really behind on news posts, but trust me, there will be more roundups coming. And this is SO FAR from all the good climate news in April 2023. I may do weekly roundups in the future.

So, without further ado, some reasons to have hope, all from just April of 2023:

^Article date: 4/15/23

^Article date: 4/14/23. And to clarify, the cleanup will NOT be temporary, they are building infrastructure and changing laws for the long term.

^Article date: 4/13/23

^Article date: 4/12/23

^Article date: 4/10/23

^Article date: 4/12/23

^Article date: 4/11/23

^Article date: 4/8/23

^Article date: 4/5/23

More roundup posts to come!

[climatecalling]

Big Oil faces a tiny foe on the streets of Asia and Africa. The noisy, noxious vehicles that run on two and three wheels, carrying billions of people daily, are quietly going electric — in turn knocking down oil demand by one million barrels a day this year. ... The global majority doesn’t roll on four wheels. In Nairobi and Hanoi, motorcycles serve as taxis. In Mumbai, scooters can carry a family of four. In China, electric bicycles are how millions commute. “Electric bikes are quieter, much more efficient and good for the environment,” said Jesse Forrester, the founder of Mazi Mobility, which has 60 electric motorcycle taxis, known as boda-bodas, on the roads in Nairobi. “There’s a quiet revolution now in Kenya driving this transformation for the future.” .... In Darbhanga, a new acid-battery rickshaw, like the one Mr. Rai drives, sells for around 175,000 rupees, or $2,100. That’s half the price of a new rickshaw powered by natural gas. Charging the battery costs 20 rupees (25 cents), one-fourth of the price of filling a gas tank. The rebates seem to be working. Reliance Industries, India’s biggest company, is converting its three-wheeled cargo vehicles from gas to electric. Food delivery services are going electric as quickly as possible.

No paywall: https://web.archive.org/web/20231209105128/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/business/energy-environment/two-three-wheel-electric-vehicles.html

[darkmaga-returns]

Both India and China have stated quite plainly that they will not be following the example of the UK and shutting down any coal power plants in the observable future.

Coal power provides the cheap energy that Chinese and other Asian manufacturers of wind and solar components and equipment – not to mention electric vehicles – use to keep their products cheap.

These two countries will be driving coal demand growth over the near to medium term.

The above is a summary of the article below published by oil and energy news outlet Oil Price.  Sharing the article, Technocracy News & Trends editor Patrick Wood noted: “China and India, with 2.8 billion population, said, ‘let’s don’t but say we did’. China has been a Technocracy for decades and India is right behind. While they are overtaking the world, Western nations have been suckered into spending trillions to mitigate phoney climate change. Meanwhile, manufacturing moved where the cost of energy was lower.”

[mariacallous]

As Russia ramps up its second offensive, a debate has erupted over whether Moscow or Kyiv will have the upper hand in 2023. While important, such discourse also misses a larger point related to the conflict’s longer-term consequences. In the long run, the true loser of the war is already clear; Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will be remembered as a historic folly that left Russia economically, demographically, and geopolitically worse off.

Start with the lynchpin of Russia’s economy: energy. In contrast to Europe’s (very real) dependence on Russia for fossil fuels, Russia’s economic dependence on Europe has largely gone unremarked upon. As late as 2021, for example, Russia exported 32 percent of its coal, 49 percent of its oil, and a staggering 74 percent of its gas to OECD Europe alone. Add in Japan, South Korea, and non-OECD European countries that have joined Western sanctions against Russia, and the figure is even higher. A trickle of Russian energy continues to flow into Europe, but as the European Union makes good on its commitment to phase out Russian oil and gas, Moscow may soon find itself shut out of its most lucrative export market.

In a petrostate like Russia that derives 45 percent of its federal budget from fossil fuels, the impact of this market isolation is hard to overstate. Oil and coal exports are fungible, and Moscow has indeed been able to redirect them to countries such as India and China (albeit at discounted rates, higher costs, and lower profits). Gas, however, is much harder to reroute because of the infrastructure needed to transport it. With its $400 billion gas pipeline to China, Russia has managed some progress on this front, but it will take years to match current capacity to the EU. In any case, China’s leverage as a single buyer makes it a poor substitute for Europe, where Russia can bid countries against one another.

This market isolation, however, would be survivable were it not for the gravest unintended consequence of Russia’s war—an accelerated transition toward decarbonization. It took a gross violation of international law, but Putin managed to convince Western leaders to finally treat independence from fossil fuels as a national security issue and not just an environmental one.

This is best seen in Europe’s turbocharged transition toward renewable energy, where permitting processes that used to take years are being pushed up. A few months after the invasion, for example, Germany jump-started construction on what will soon be Europe’s largest solar plant. Around the same time, Britain accelerated progress on Hornsea 3, slated to become the world’s largest offshore wind farm upon completion. The results already speak for themselves; for the first time ever last year, wind and solar combined for a higher share of electrical generation in Europe than oil and gas. And this says nothing of other decarbonization efforts such as subsidies for heat pumps in the EU, incentives for clean energy in the United States, and higher electric vehicle uptake everywhere.

The cumulative effect for Russia could not be worse. Sooner or later, lower demand for fossil fuels will dramatically and permanently lower the price for oil and gas—an existential threat to Russia’s economy. When increased U.S. shale production depressed oil prices in 2014, for example, Russia experienced a financial crisis. Lower global demand for fossil fuels will play out over a longer timeline, but the result for Russia will be much graver. With its invasion, Russia hastened the arrival of an energy transition that promises to unravel its economy.

Beyond a smaller and less efficient economy, Putin’s war in Ukraine will also leave Russia with a smaller and less dynamic population. Russia’s demographic problems are well-documented, and Putin had intended to start reversing the country’s long-running population decline in 2022. In a morbid twist, the year is likelier to mark the start of its irrevocable fall. The confluence of COVID and an inverted demographic pyramid already made Russia’s demographic outlook dire. The addition of war has made it catastrophic.

To understand why, it’s important to understand the demographic scar left by the 1990s. In the chaos that followed the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia’s birthrate plunged to 1.2 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed for a population to remain stable. The effects can still be seen today; while there are 12 million Russians aged 30-34 (born just before the breakup of the Soviet Union), there are just 7 million aged 20-24 (born during the chaos that followed it). That deficit meant Russia’s population was already poised to fall, simply because a smaller number of people would be able to have children in the first place.

Russia’s invasion has made this bad demographic hand cataclysmic. At least 120,000 Russian soldiers have died so far—many in their 20s and from the same small generation Russia can scarcely afford to lose. Many more have emigrated, if they can, or simply fled to other countries to try to wait out the war; exact numbers are hard to calculate, but the 32,000 Russians who have immigrated to Israel alone suggest the total number approaches a million.

Disastrously, the planning horizons of Russian families have been upended; it is projected that fewer than 1.2 million Russian babies may be born next year, , which would leave Russia with its lowest birthrate since 2000. A spike in violent crime, a rise in alcohol consumption, and other factors that collude against a family’s decision to have children may depress the birthrate further still. Ironically, over the last decade Putin managed to slow (if not reverse) Russia’s population decline through lavish payoffs for new mothers. Increased military spending and the debt needed to finance it will make such generous natalist policies harder.

The invasion has left Russia even worse off geopolitically. Unlike hard numbers and demographic data, such lost influence is hard to measure. But it can be seen everywhere, from public opinion polls across the West to United Nations votes that the Kremlin has lost by margins as high as 141 to 5. It can also be seen in Russia’s own backyard; while an emboldened NATO could soon include Sweden and Finland, Russia’s own Collective Security Treaty Organization is tearing at the seams as traditional allies such as Kazakhstan and Armenia realize the Kremlin’s impotence and look to China for security.

Perhaps most important of all, Russia has reinvigorated the cause of liberal democracy. In the year after its invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron won a rare second term in France, the far-right AfD lost ground in three successive elections in Germany, and “Make America Great Again” Republicans paid an electoral penalty in the U.S. midterms. (The far right did sweep into power in both Sweden and Italy, but such wins have so far failed to dent Western unity and appear more motivated by immigration.) And this says nothing of the wave of democratic consolidation playing out across Eastern Europe, where voters have thrown out illiberal populists in Slovenia and Czechia in the last year alone. It is impossible to attribute any of these outcomes to just one factor (U.S. Democrats also got a boost from the overturn of Roe v. Wade and election denialism, for example), but Russia’s invasion—and the clear choice between liberalism and autocracy it presented—no doubt helped.

Nowhere, however, has Russia’s invasion backfired more than in Ukraine. Contrary to Putin’s historical revisionism, Ukraine has long had a national identity distinct from Russia’s. But it’s also long been fractured along linguistic lines, with many of its elites intent on maintaining close relations with the Kremlin and even the public unsure about greater alignment with the West.

No longer. Ninety-one percent of Ukrainians now favor joining NATO, a figure unthinkable just a decade ago. Eighty-five percent of Ukrainians consider themselves Ukrainian above all else, a marker of civic identity that has grown by double digits since Russia’s invasion. Far from protecting the Russian language in Ukraine, Putin appears to have hastened its demise as native Russian speakers (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky included) switch to Ukrainian en masse. Putin launched his invasion to bring Ukraine back into Moscow’s orbit. He has instead anchored its future in the West.

Of course, one can argue that, however much the war has cost Russia, it has cost Ukraine exponentially more. This is true. Ukraine’s economy shrank by more than 30 percent last year, while Russia’s economy contracted by just about 3 percent. And this says nothing of the human toll Ukraine has suffered. But, like Brexit, Western sanctions on Russia will play out as a slow burn, not an immediate collapse. And while Russia enters a protracted period of economic and demographic decline, once peace comes, Ukraine will have the combined industrial capacity of the EU, United States, and United Kingdom to support it as the West’s newest institutional member—precisely the outcome Putin hoped to avoid. Russia may yet make new territorial gains in the Donbas. But in the long run, such gains are immaterial—Russia has already lost.