#ECB rate cut

[trendynewsnow]

Global Market Update: Positive Trends in Europe and the US, Mixed Performance in Asia

Market Overview Both European and US markets are poised to conclude the week on a positive note, while Asian markets exhibit a mixed performance due to varying economic conditions across regions. In Europe, the DAX index celebrated a notable high on Thursday, following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) third rate cut of the year. Meanwhile, Wall Street continued its upward trajectory, propelled…

[beardedmrbean]

Several signs point to a recovery in the housing market, according to Kauppalehti, which examines recent trends in Euribor rates.

The Euribor is short for the Euro Interbank Offered Rate and is based on the average interest rate at which European banks borrow from one another.

The most common reference rate for Finnish housing loans, the 12-month Euribor, fell to 2.548 percent last week. Market forecasts expect it to dip to around two percent by next spring — a trend expected to boost the housing market, which is already seeing signs of revival. Prices of older homes outside urban centres are higher than they were a year ago — something not witnessed in over two years, according to the business daily.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its key interest rates three times this year: in June, September, and October. Danske Bank's chief analyst, Minna Kuusisto, suggests there will be another cut in December, with rate reductions continuing quarterly into next year.

Nato nation

Finns widely support the stationing of Nato troops in the country. A survey by the agricultural paper Maaseudun Tulevaisuus finds that only ten percent of respondents oppose the deployment of these forces on Finnish soil.

"Support for Nato in Finland turned very quickly when Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, support has remained at 'North Korean' levels in a positive sense," said former commander of the Finnish Defence Forces and current MP Jarmo Lindberg (NCP).

Overall, attitudes toward international defence cooperation in Finland have changed rapidly and permanently—likely as a result of Russia's brutal acts of aggression, MT reports.

Snow season

Winter is on the way, says Iltalehti, claiming that an area stretching from Lahti to Lappeenranta will see up to 15 centimeters of snow on Friday.

Weather service Foreca forecasts snow showers and strong gusts of wind for the weekend.

According to IL, the capital area will see its first snowflakes on Friday, but the white stuff won't cover the ground for long, unlike in Kainuu in the east, where driving conditions will turn wintry on Saturday. More snow is in store for northern Finland on Sunday.

Lapin Kansa meanwhile says Thursday night was the coldest of the season so far, with the temperature dropping to -16.7 degrees Celsius in Savukoski, Lapland, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI).

[feedyourmind1031]

 Economic Overview: Key Market Developments

Critical Update

Sudden market shifts may occur due to significant events. Monitor trading positions and implement risk management strategies during these uncertain times.

Economic Overview

As we enter a new quarter, the market faces numerous challenges. Rising war tensions, de-dollarization efforts, and upcoming elections in the U.S., France, and Iran contribute to the uncertainty. Here’s a detailed analysis of these developments and their potential impacts.

Currency Shifts

Russia’s move to use the Chinese Yuan for international trade and the increase in gold reserves by central banks are noteworthy. While the Yuan may not replace the U.S. Dollar soon, these actions indicate strategic shifts. Gold purchases serve as a hedge against potential currency volatility.

Geopolitical Conflicts

Middle East: The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has intensified, with Iran warning of severe retaliation if Lebanon is attacked. Daily strikes continue, and countries like the U.S. and Germany have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon.

South China Sea: On June 19, 2024, Chinese coast guard officers attacked Philippine military personnel near the Second Thomas Shoal, escalating tensions. The U.S. has reaffirmed its defense treaty with the Philippines, which could lead to military involvement if violence escalates.

Korean Peninsula: North and South Korea are on edge, with Russia signing a defense treaty with North Korea. Border incidents and threats over South Korea’s potential troop deployment to Ukraine have heightened tensions.

Nuclear Brinkmanship: France and Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship is a significant risk, with both countries attempting to establish deterrent boundaries.

Economic and Market Effects

These conflicts could alter monetary power dynamics and supply chains. Expect increased oil demand and gold purchases as safe-haven assets. Silver demand will also rise due to its military applications.

Diplomatic Relations

Zimbabwe and Zambia: Tensions are high as Zimbabwe aligns more closely with Russia, accusing the U.S. of militarizing Zambia.

Election Updates

Iran: Presidential elections are nearing completion as candidates drop out.

France: The first stage of snap parliamentary elections is complete.

U.S.: The first debate between Biden and Trump was contentious, adding to the uncertainty of the upcoming election.

Natural Disaster Considerations

While not detailed here, it’s crucial to consider the impact of natural disasters on economic activities and implement strong risk management.

Key Market Data and Analysis

Final GDP: Increased from 1.3% to 1.4%.

Unemployment: Fell by 3k more than forecasted, indicating a stronger U.S. economy.

Core PCE: Decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%.

Consumer Confidence: Fell but remained above forecasted numbers.

Housing Market: New home sales dropped significantly, while pending home sales improved slightly but missed expectations.

GOLD

Gold prices remain within a range, with resistance at 2431.705 and support at 2295.536. A bullish trend is expected despite fluctuations.

SILVER

Silver prices showed growth, reaching 29.900 before settling at 29.018. Resistance is expected at 29.900, but an overall upward trend is anticipated.

DXY (Dollar Index)

The dollar index showed growth but may face weakness with the anticipated September rate cut. A bearish outlook is expected.

GBPUSD

The pound remains within a range. With potential rate cuts in both the U.K. and the U.S., significant price changes are unlikely in the near term.

AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar shows upward momentum but needs to break above 0.67142 to confirm this trend. Analysts predict rate cuts only in late 2025, potentially benefiting the currency.

NZDUSD

Similar to the Aussie dollar, the New Zealand dollar shows growth and may benefit from delayed rate cuts until late 2025.

EURUSD

The ECB’s cautious rate cut approach has weakened the Euro. Further cuts are expected but at a slower pace, indicating potential continued weakness.

USDJPY

Despite interventions, the USDJPY continues to grow. Watch for further interventions and economic data to gauge future movements.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc fell after recent rate cuts. Further rate cuts are uncertain, making the USDCHF volatile.

USDCAD

The CAD showed weakness against the dollar, with analysts predicting further rate cuts. Price consolidation is expected as we await more data.

Stay informed and practice diligent risk management as we navigate these challenging market conditions. More updates to come.

[starseedfxofficial]

How the Global Market Environment Influences EURUSD: Little-Known Secrets It’s no secret that the Forex market is affected by global events—we all know that. But what if I told you that most traders completely overlook some of the less obvious factors that can tip the scales of the EURUSD pair? The financial markets are often a dance of predictability, right up until the moment they decide to cha-cha off into the realm of “What in the world just happened?!” Here’s where the little-known secrets come in—those nuanced and often hidden influences that most traders just aren’t paying attention to. It’s time to go backstage and take a peek behind the curtain of the global market, and see how these factors sway the infamous EURUSD currency pair. Global Uncertainty—Not Just Politics, but Pandemics and Popcorn Too When people think about global uncertainty affecting currency pairs like the EURUSD, they immediately think of political events, central bank decisions, or maybe a good ol' trade war. But let’s sprinkle some extra flavor in—did you know that something as seemingly harmless as popcorn can tell you a lot about currency fluctuations? I’m talking about cinema attendance as a proxy for consumer confidence. During periods of financial uncertainty, people tend to cut down on big expenditures but paradoxically might increase spending on small indulgences—like movies. Who knew your Friday night flick could be a barometer for how the euro might move against the dollar? This kind of “small indulgence index”—where people spend more on little luxuries—gives a sneaky peek into consumer behavior and broader economic sentiment. When combined with data on employment rates or inflation figures, these niche indicators can help traders anticipate when the market will be risk-on or risk-off. Oil Prices—When Black Gold Makes the Euro Shine Oil prices and the EURUSD have a complicated relationship—like that on-again, off-again couple you know that keeps breaking up and getting back together. Here’s the scoop: Rising oil prices often hurt the dollar, especially because the U.S. is a large consumer of oil, and it imports more than the EU. Conversely, the euro often benefits when oil prices go up because it strengthens energy-exporting EU economies like Norway. This relationship can be elusive to many traders, but keeping an eye on oil prices can give you a head start on where the EURUSD is headed. And here’s where it gets even juicier: Countries like Germany—a key economic driver for the EU—are highly energy-dependent, meaning any geopolitical tension that affects oil supply will have a direct impact on the euro. For traders, watching OPEC meetings, U.S. shale production reports, and even whispers about new oilfield discoveries can reveal clues about the future movements of the EURUSD. ECB & Fed—The Puppeteers Behind the Curtains Alright, let’s pull back another curtain and talk about the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). These two are like that pair of frenemies you just can’t get away from—always trying to one-up each other. Traders often look at interest rate decisions, but what if we told you there are deeper secrets at play? For example, if you want to get ahead of the herd, you should be keeping tabs on ECB press releases and Fed minutes, but also speeches by officials who are often seen as “soft hawks” or “doves-in-hawk’s-clothing.” A little-known secret? Pay close attention to statements about balance sheet adjustments, because while interest rate changes make the headlines, it’s the balance sheet moves that quietly push the market. Remember when the Fed started tapering its bond purchases in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis? Most people focused on rates, but it was the shrinking balance sheet that truly spooked the EURUSD market. The “Lag Effect”: Global Data’s Delayed Reaction Next up, let’s get into the “lag effect”—a phenomenon that few Forex traders consider when trading EURUSD. Global economic data often influences currencies not immediately but with a delay, similar to how the effects of a late-night burrito binge are felt the following day (you know what I mean!). This lag effect can often be traced to policy transmission delays, consumer spending inertia, or just plain hesitation on the part of institutional investors. For example, a negative GDP report from Germany might not hit the euro immediately, but a week or two later, when companies start adjusting their earnings forecasts—bam! The EURUSD feels the burn. Understanding this delay can provide a massive trading edge. This is particularly true when dealing with macro-level data, such as quarterly GDP results or large-scale consumer sentiment indexes. The trick is to anticipate when those delayed ripples will hit the currency market, instead of being surprised like a deer in headlights. Divergent Policies—When One Bank Tightens and the Other Loosens Another under-the-radar factor that drives the EURUSD is divergent monetary policy. Everyone and their uncle knows that interest rates matter, but not many pay attention to the subtler actions central banks take to influence their currency. Divergence isn’t just about one bank hiking rates while the other cuts; it’s about the broader monetary ecosystem they create—think liquidity operations, foreign currency swap agreements, or even unofficial interventions. Let me share one little-known secret: When the Fed began raising rates while the ECB was still all-in on stimulus, most traders focused on the rate hike headlines. But seasoned traders were looking at liquidity—the Fed was also reducing U.S. dollar liquidity globally, making it scarcer. This liquidity tightening had a bigger impact on the EURUSD pair than the rate hikes themselves because less dollar liquidity increases the value of the dollar relative to the euro. Sentiment Shifts: The Eurozone Drama & Its Impact Ah, sentiment—it’s like that clingy ex that refuses to leave you alone. Eurozone drama can sway the EURUSD in powerful, unpredictable ways. Political instability in member nations, unexpected election results, or even rumors of a potential “Italexit” (yes, that’s Italy potentially leaving the EU) can throw the euro for a loop. Here’s where the trick lies: most traders move only when headlines appear, but those with ninja tactics are already prepared, watching sentiment metrics like the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). For traders in the know, monitoring social media and trending news can help gauge market sentiment before the big moves happen. This is where you can get a leg up on the competition—positioning yourself before sentiment fully swings in either direction. US Treasury Yields—The Wild Card And finally, the EURUSD has an intimate relationship with U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields make the dollar more attractive, especially in times of global uncertainty. Here’s where it gets interesting: short-term yields can be a bit of a red herring, while long-term yields tell the real story. Traders often overlook the 10-year yield movements in favor of chasing the 2-year, but guess what? It’s the long-term expectations baked into those 10-year yields that tend to set the direction for the EURUSD over a longer period. To get a little more advanced—it’s not just about the yields themselves, but the spread between U.S. and German bund yields. When this spread widens, it signals higher demand for dollar-denominated assets, which in turn can lead to a stronger dollar and a weaker euro. Monitoring these spreads, and understanding why they change, can help you predict the broader trend in EURUSD before it materializes in the spot market. In Conclusion: Put These Secrets to Work So, how do you actually use all of this information to your advantage? The trick lies in staying ahead of the curve by watching niche indicators and keeping an eye on lag effects and hidden relationships. Whether it's following global oil prices, sneaking a peek at Treasury yields, or tapping into the consumer’s popcorn spending habits, it’s all about piecing together the puzzle before others even realize there is a puzzle. That’s what gives you an edge in the complex dance of EURUSD trading. Remember, little-known secrets like these can be the difference between being part of the herd or leading it. So the next time you’re thinking about placing a trade on EURUSD, don’t just look at the obvious. Dig a little deeper, find those hidden patterns, and watch as you outsmart the market—with a grin on your face and, if you like, some popcorn by your side. —————– Image Credits: Cover image at the top is AI-generated Read the full article

[googleblogs123]

Strengthening Forex Trading Approaches in a Volatile Market

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers

As we prepare for a period marked by heightened market volatility, it is essential for traders to remain vigilant against potential lags or discrepancies in order placements, especially with the upcoming Presidential Elections expected to influence the market significantly.

This week, traders can expect major data releases, including the RBA Rate Statement, U.S. ISM Services PMI, and key employment figures for the Kiwi on Wednesday. Thursday will feature the Pound’s Monetary Policy Reports and U.S. Unemployment Claims, while Friday will bring the FED’s rate cut announcement and CAD employment reports.

Record highs in net shorts on U.S. Treasury two-year note futures indicate growing expectations of price declines from both leveraged funds and non-commercial accounts, as reported last week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The US10Y yield rose to 4.386% as of Saturday morning, with US30 and US500 indices trending lower ahead of the elections.

Developments in Ukraine and West Asia are set to influence price strength and market expectations, significantly affecting Oil and Metals movements this week.

Market Analysis

GOLD Gold is maintaining a bullish outlook, with RSI and MACD indicators suggesting a continuation of upward movement. The price action shows a failure to reach previous swing lows, signaling robust bullish potential. Uncertainties around the elections and possible ceasefire in West Asia further support GOLD’s investment prospects.

SILVER Silver has breached its previous swing low, indicating a shift from buying to selling momentum. Current chart conditions point to a potential shift, with RSI and MACD suggesting a bullish run. The price currently hovers at a key support level of 32.518, aligning with a favorable outlook supported by fundamental factors.

DXY The Dollar has weakened ahead of the elections and the FED’s expected rate cuts, breaking its previous swing low and exhibiting bearish momentum according to MACD and RSI indicators. Further selling pressure is likely as the market opened with a gap and 10-Year Yields continue to rise.

GBPUSD The Pound has rebounded following a gap due to Dollar weakness, but price action has yet to confirm a momentum shift. The MACD and RSI indicate a recent rise after crossing from oversold levels. A breakout above the previous swing high at 1.29966 could signal a bullish trend, particularly with the upcoming FED rate cut announcement.

AUDUSD The Aussie Dollar has shifted to bullish momentum after breaking the previous swing high. Both MACD cross and RSI divergence indicate continued bullish potential following the Dollar's weakness. However, a correction may occur before any significant rise due to gaps in order placement, with current price movements suggesting increased buying potential.

NZDUSD The Kiwi has not yet breached its previous swing high. The MACD cross upward and RSI show divergence favoring a buying movement, although recent gaps suggest a fill-in order similar to the AUD. Current price action does not yet indicate a market shift, as the previous swing high remains unbroken.

EURUSD The Euro continues to follow expected trends with ongoing buying momentum, driven by decreased rate-cut expectations for the December ECB meeting. RSI divergence and MACD’s recent cross further support this bullish trend.

USDJPY The Yen regained strength amidst Dollar weakness, with MACD crossing and RSI divergence signaling recovery. Current market conditions suggest continued short-term Dollar selling until Friday’s announcements.

USDCHF The Franc shows sustained consolidation. Recent price moves indicate a continuation to the downside, supported by the RSI and MACD, although confirmation awaits a break below the previous swing low.

USDCAD The CAD has followed previous expectations in recent trading. The market opened with bearish momentum, as evidenced by the MACD cross and RSI divergence. Provided the price remains above the prior swing low, buying momentum may persist, reinforced by steady oil prices amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Strengthening Forex Trading Methods for Volatility

In an environment characterized by heightened market volatility, employing robust forex trading methods is essential. Utilizing forex scalping strategies can help traders capitalize on short-term price movements.

A solid understanding of forex market trends and the use of reliable forex signal trading tools are crucial for informed decision-making. Effective risk management measures can mitigate potential losses, enhancing overall trading performance. By remaining informed and adopting effective strategies, traders can successfully navigate unpredictable market conditions.

[leprivatebanker]

ECB should keep open mind on next rate cut, Knot says

[inkovsky]

The Hang Seng Index opened 26 points higher at 20,525 points and then repeatedly performed well. It rose 443 points to 20,942 points in the afternoon and rose 261 points or 1.27% to 20,760 points throughout the day. The Technology Index rose 83 points or 1.85% to 4,605 ​​points. Main board transaction volume was HK$192.6 billion.

The volatility of Hong Kong stocks has narrowed in recent days, and transactions have also continued to shrink, reflecting that the popularity of capital participation is gradually declining. In addition, the market is experiencing another wave of "water pumping". In addition to Sunac China's earlier rights issue at a large discount, China Resources Power also plans to place shares at a discount of 5.06%, reflecting the lack of confidence in the market outlook and the lack of confidence in the market outlook, and the upward momentum of the market may not be sustainable. If the Hang Seng Index fails to hold the bottom of the rising gap at 19,954 points on September 26, the market outlook will have the opportunity to find a bottom and test the 19,361 points supported by the 0.618 times increase before the correction.

European stock markets came under pressure, with British, French and German stocks closing down 0.58%, 0.5% and 0.23% respectively.

U.S. bond interest rates continued to rise, with the 10-year bond interest rate continuing to rise by up to 5.6 basis points to 4.264%, and the interest rate-sensitive 2-year bond interest rate rising by 5.2 basis points to 4.089%. Coupled with the poor performance of the latest results of giant companies, U.S. stocks came under pressure on Wednesday. After the Dow opened 90 points lower, the decline once expanded to a maximum of 631 points and hit a low of 42,293 points. After falling for three days in a row, the S&P 500 dropped another 1.52% on Wednesday. The technology-heavy Nasdaq fell as much as 2.3%.

At the close of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 409 points, or 0.96%, to 42,514 points; the S&P Index fell 53 points, or 0.92%, to 5,797 points; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 296 points, or 1.6%, to 18,276 points.

The U.S. dollar index rose as much as 0.48% to 104.57, and the yen fell 1.4% to 153.19 per dollar, hitting a three-month low. An ECB official said that the December meeting may significantly cut interest rates. Money markets are now betting that the bank has a 40% chance of deciding to cut interest rates by 0.5%. The euro fell, falling 0.35% to $1.0761.

[trendynewsnow]

The Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on European Stocks

Historically, certain European stocks and sectors have flourished during periods of interest rate cuts, particularly when central banks ease monetary policy without the backdrop of a recession. These cycles, often initiated to stimulate growth and manage inflation, have proven advantageous for equities, especially in sectors that are sensitive to lower borrowing costs. Globally, central banks,…

[chemanalystdata]

Chequered Plate Price | Prices | Pricing | News | Database | Chart

In the second quarter of 2024, Chequered Plate prices in North America showed a strong upward trend, driven by a combination of factors that bolstered market dynamics. This period saw significant price growth due to supply chain constraints, strong demand from sectors like construction and automotive, and rising raw material costs, particularly for zinc and nickel. Additionally, maintenance outages at major steel mills, including Acerinox and Outokumpu’s Calvert facility, further tightened supply, pushing prices higher. In the U.S., prices saw the most notable increases, fueled by bullish market sentiment. Demand from the automotive and HVAC sectors for galvanized and value-added steel products contributed to the steady rise in prices. Despite a slowdown in overall manufacturing indices, construction and manufacturing activities continued to support the price surge. Compared to the previous quarter, prices rose by 14%, highlighting the strength of the market. By the end of the quarter, the price of SS Chequered Plate (6 mm) in Texas reached USD 4,641/MT, reflecting a period of significant price growth and market resilience in response to both supply constraints and growing demand.

In contrast, the second quarter of 2024 saw a negative pricing environment for Chequered Plates in the APAC region. The market faced a downturn, largely driven by weak demand from the construction and automotive sectors, alongside high raw material costs, particularly for nickel. Despite elevated production costs, market prices failed to rise due to sluggish demand, and seasonal slowdowns further exacerbated the oversupply issue. China, the key player in the region, experienced the sharpest price declines. Weak demand from the property sector and reduced infrastructure investments led to a steady downward trend, especially after the post-Labour Day period when downstream consumption dropped. Despite high production costs, the lack of strong end-user demand resulted in a bearish market. Prices in China fell by 1% compared to the previous quarter, with SS Chequered Plate (304-6 mm) Ex Tangshan closing at USD 2,179/MT. Overall, the market remained weak, marked by excess supply and low demand, with no major plant disruptions reported.

In Q2 2024, the European Chequered Plate market experienced a significant rise in prices, driven by various key factors. Rising alloy surcharges, increasing energy costs, and regulatory impacts from the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which focuses on securing strategic raw material supplies, all contributed to the upward price trajectory. Additionally, strong demand from the automotive sector, despite broader manufacturing slowdowns, supported the price increases, while the spring construction season further boosted demand for steel products. Germany saw the most pronounced price changes in the region, with robust demand from the automotive sector and favorable economic conditions, including an ECB interest rate cut. Energy costs, particularly for gas and CO2 emissions, had a strong correlation with metal prices, while geopolitical disruptions around the Suez Canal led to additional shipping surcharges, further driving up prices. Compared to the previous quarter, prices in Germany rose by 14%, with SS Chequered Plate (304-5mm) Ex Ruhr closing at USD 3,847/MT. This period was marked by positive market dynamics, with regulatory, economic, and seasonal factors all contributing to the price surge. No significant plant shutdowns were reported during this time.

Get Real Time Prices for Chequered Plate: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/chequered-plate-1490

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[accapitalmarket]

Central bank speakers and mid-week PMIs dominate the discourse

US stock markets finished quietly Friday, but the modest gains were still enough to lift the Dow Jones and S&P 500 to record highs. Oil prices continued sinking, Brent and US crude futures falling by 2.0% for the session as fears receded that Israel would strike back at Iran's oil infrastructure.

Gold powered through $2700.00 an ounce, rising 1.0% to $2720.00 as traders hedge the Middle East and US election geopolitical risk. After a stellar week, profit-taking weakened the US Dollar slightly, with the dollar index (DXY) falling slightly to 103.284.

The week will likely start quietly for Asian markets after a modest US session and a lack of weekend headline risk from the media. China kicks the week off once again by announcing its one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR), with markets pricing in 20 basis point cuts to keep the stimulus train rolling.

China's calendar is then quiet until Friday's decision on the 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF). Markets are pricing in no change at 2.0%, which leaves Chinese markets at the mercy of short-term headline risk this week.

The global calendar is also much quieter this week, dominated by the release of national PMI data across Asia, Europe and the Fed Beige Book on Thursday. A weak reading from the Beige Book could see traders piling back into the Fed mega-ease trading again, boosting stocks but potentially weakening the US Dollar.

We have a flurry of central bank officials speaking from the Fed, BOE, and ECB. Keep an eye on the BOE Bailey on Tuesday and Wednesday. Dovish noises from the UK last week sent the pound sharply lower, and more dovish chirping this week could see the medicine repeated.

GBPUSD Chart

Over in Japan, Friday's Tokyo CPI release will have traders assessing the BOJ rate hike outlook, something Japan stocks have been sensitive to lately. If the PMI and Tokyo CPI data are soft, the yen may err to the weaker side as well, but Japan's general election this coming weekend will probably cap any currency gains anyway.

USDJPY chart

Geopolitical surprises in the Middle East can never be discounted, but oil's technical picture continues deteriorating. Gold remains a momentum play; nobody is a hero standing in front of a moving train.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this market commentary is of general nature only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Trading margin forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors could experience losses in excess of total deposits. You do not have ownership of the underlying assets. AC Capital Market (V) Ltd is the product issuer and distributor. Please read and consider our Product Disclosure Statement and Terms and Conditions, and fully understand the risks involved before deciding to acquire any of the financial products provided by us. The content of this market commentary is owned by AC Capital Market (V) Ltd. Any illegal reproduction of this content will result in immediate legal action.

[usnewsrank]

Monetary stimuli could cause the economic cycle to enter reflation mode

  The expected and desired interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now a reality. The primary US monetary authority reduced rates by 50 basis points, catching much of the market off guard, as analysts had anticipated a cut of only 25 basis points – by Alberto Matellán   The European Central Bank (ECB) also reduced official interest rates as planned. We are in a market environment…

[scott1984fp2]

ECB cuts interest rates to support flagging eurozone economy https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/17/european-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-inflation-falls-below-2-percent-eurozone

[googleblogs123]

Adapting Forex Trading Methods for Current Market Conditions

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers

As we move into a period of increased market volatility, traders should prepare for potential lag or discrepancies in order placements due to the impending Presidential Elections, which are expected to exert significant pressure on the market.

This week brings several major data releases, including the RBA Rate Statement, U.S. ISM Services PMI, and Kiwi employment data on Wednesday. Thursday's reports will include the Pound’s Monetary Policy and U.S. Unemployment Claims, while Friday will feature the FED’s anticipated rate cut and CAD employment statistics.

Net shorts on U.S. Treasury two-year note futures reached all-time highs last week, indicating a growing expectation of price declines among both leveraged and non-commercial accounts, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The US10Y yield climbed to 4.386% as of Saturday morning. Moreover, US30 and US500 indices are showing downward trends ahead of the elections.

Further developments in Ukraine and West Asia will significantly impact price dynamics and market expectations, influencing Oil and Metals movements throughout the week.

Market Analysis

GOLD Gold continues to show bullish potential, with RSI and MACD indicators indicating an upward trajectory. The inability to reach previous swing lows suggests a strong bullish outlook, supported by election uncertainties and a possible ceasefire in West Asia.

SILVER Silver has shifted from buying to selling after breaching its previous swing low. Current conditions on the charts indicate a potential upward trend, with both RSI and MACD suggesting bullish potential. The price currently stands at a significant support level of 32.518, further confirming a favorable outlook.

DXY The Dollar has dipped ahead of the elections and the FED’s rate cut announcements, breaking through its previous swing low and aligning with bearish momentum per the MACD and RSI. Continued selling pressure is anticipated as markets opened with a gap, and 10-Year Yields are on the rise.

GBPUSD The Pound rebounded due to Dollar weakness, although price action has yet to confirm a clear momentum shift. The MACD and RSI indicate a recent rise after being in oversold territory. A breakout above the previous swing high at 1.29966 could signal the onset of a bullish trend, especially with the FED rate cut announcement on the horizon.

AUDUSD The Aussie Dollar has turned bullish following a break of the previous swing high. Both MACD cross and RSI divergence suggest continued bullish momentum, but a correction may occur before any substantial rise, given gaps in order placements.

NZDUSD The Kiwi has not yet broken its previous swing high. However, MACD cross and RSI show divergence that favors a buying opportunity, despite the recent gap indicating the need for a fill-in order similar to the AUD. Current price movements do not yet suggest a shift in market dynamics.

EURUSD The Euro is exhibiting continued buying momentum driven by reduced expectations for rate cuts at the upcoming ECB meeting. RSI divergence and MACD’s recent cross further affirm this bullish trend.

USDJPY The Yen regained strength against a weak Dollar, with MACD crossing and RSI divergence signaling recovery. Current market conditions suggest that short-term Dollar selling will persist until Friday's announcements.

USDCHF The Franc is undergoing consolidation, with recent price actions suggesting further downside potential, supported by the RSI and MACD indicators. Confirmation will depend on a break below the previous swing low.

USDCAD The CAD market is aligning with previous expectations, opening with bearish momentum as indicated by the MACD cross and RSI divergence. Provided that prices remain above the prior swing low, buying momentum may persist, reinforced by stable oil prices amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Enhancing Forex Trading Strategies for Volatility

In the face of increased market volatility, solid forex trading strategies are crucial. Implementing forex scalping techniques allows traders to take advantage of short-term price movements.

Understanding forex market trends and using reliable trading signal tools is essential for making informed decisions. Strong risk management practices can help limit potential losses and improve overall trading results. By staying well-informed and employing sound strategies, traders can effectively navigate the unpredictable market landscape.

[leprivatebanker]

ECB should stick to cutting rates in 'measured' steps, Vasle says

[tradermade]

Forex Updates! Big Moves on US Data & Central Bank Policies! The $USD is gaining momentum on stronger-than-expected retail sales, while market participants keep a close eye on potential Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the $EUR holds steady ahead of the ECB’s rate decision, and the $JPY rebounds as expectations grow for a Bank of Japan rate hike.