#Darlington poll

[aheathen-conceivably]

Gather one, gather round, my friends! Lets play a little tabletop game I like to call....

[crimechannels]

By • Olalekan Fagbade BREAKING; Appeal Court removes Senate Minority Whip as Senator In a turn of events on Saturday, the Court of Appeal sitting in Lagos sacked Minority Whip Senator Darlington Nwokocha. Nwokocha, represents Abia Central in the red chamber of the National Assembly on the platform of the Labour Party (LP), Appeal Court declared the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Col Austin Akobundu (retd), as the duly elected senator in the February 25 polls. The court, in its ruling, upturned the ruling of the National Assembly election petition tribunal, which earlier upheld Nwokocha’s victory. Also, the Court of Appeal sitting in Lagos has dismissed the appeal brought by Anthony Agbazuere, a candidate of PDP, against LP’s House of Representatives member, Ginger Onwusibe. The court upheld Onwusibe’s victory in the February 25 National Assembly poll and also agreed with the ruling of the tribunal, which had said that Agbazuere’s case lacked merit. It, therefore, affirmed Onwusibe’s victory as the duly elected member for the Isiala Ngwa North/Isiala Ngwa South federal constituency.

[oldsalempost-blog]

The Old Salem Post

Our  Local Tamassee-Salem SC Area News each Monday except holidays                                          Contact: theoldsalempost@gmail.com                              Distributed to local businesses, town hall, library.                                               Volume 7 Issue 22                                                                                                  Week of June 5, 2023                https://www.tumblr.com/settings/blog/oldsalempost-blog                                                         Lynne Martin Publishing

EDITOR:  Newcomers tell of reasons they have left an area.  Maryland- overtaxed.  Florida -over grown. California -crazy and electricity outages.  Wisconsin -too cold.   Atlanta -loss of community, overcrowded, horrible traffic and uncontrolled development.    Drought and population growth  are causing less pull from the Colorado river, leaving limited water supplies to cities.   Many people, planners, and elected officials seem so eager to put our beautiful county in to this same situation.    We and newcomers can help prevent this happening to our county and state.  We can be active at the voting polls to elect members who will help protect our way of life, our farm land,  and begin legislation to limit development and sprawl.  LRM  

Town of SALEM:  Next Town Council meeting June 20, 5pm at the Town Hall.  Plan on our July 4th Celebration.  Starts at 8pm.  Fireworks & Music.  Located on the Ball Field.

SALEM LIBRARY: Check out the Summer activities and reading programs!                    

Jottings from Jeannie:    When a Family Fails   Significant events  like births, deaths, and marriages can set up the conditions for drama, trauma and for a family to fail.  Julie's June wedding looms ahead, but she dreads it like getting a root canal. Her Mother threatens to walk out if Julie's dad gives the bride away.  Wouldn't you think this family could be loving  for 30 minutes during a wedding?   I'm sure you have heard of other examples.  Sam's family wondered why the cousins from Atlanta weren't at Grandma's funeral.  Truth to tell, they were at her house loading the family antiques into their trucks! (Yup , I was there. It happened in Greer!)   SO--what can you do if you ended up in a family that fails you?   1) Accept and acknowledge the hurt.  2) Talk about it with a close friend or pastor.  3)  Distance yourself from situations dealing with families that fail. It won't help to complain to them. 4) Should you learn of someone devastated by a failing family, share your story with her so she will learn that  YOU   emerged on the other side of a dealing with a family that failed you.   Miz Jeannie loves you!  Hey! The Lightening Bugs are Back!

JOCASSEE VALLEY BREWING COMPANY,(JVBC) & COFFEE SHOP 13412 N Hwy 11 Open  Wed–Sat-Sat 8am-9pm.  Sun: 12pm-7pm  Events this week: Wing WED: Food Truck 5pm Wing Wagon. Blue Grass Jam 6:30pm.   Fri– Food: SIMPLE SAMMIES Music: MINIVAN MARK  at 6:30pm.  Sat–Food: IRON PIG Music: Spaulding & the Lionhearts at 6:30pm.  Sun 12pm-7pm Food:  The Lettuce Shop                                                                                                  Coffee shop features Pisgah Coffee Roasters and Dough-Dough pastries.                                                            

                                         CONSERVATION CORNER                               Century Farmers Honored:  Thank God for farmers and families who have kept their farms for over 100 years.  Century farms  from all across SC were honored at the SC Agriculture Museum, located in Pendleton, on Saturday, June 1.  There are at least 246 listed presently.  But there are more. SC is rich in agriculture.  Support your farmers.  Buy local.   Protect your land and your farms by land trusts or easements. SC farmlands need protection now.  We are losing farm land  state wide daily to development.  Protection of property helps ensure the potential for agriculture.  Once paved with asphalt or concrete that potential is lost forever.                                                                                                                                                         HEALTH CORNER                                                                                                                                                                                   A Conversation:  I met an 80 year old farmer from Darlington, SC who did not look his age. I learned a lot but mostly that he did not farm his entire life.  He retired from working with machinery.   He was eager to share his healthy habits, especially since he had recovered from a stroke.  One day his daughter noticed his face drooped and he walked sideways.  He was diagnosed with a stroke and accepted the full risk of death to reverse the stroke with the “clot busting’ medication. He returned to full function.  He shared that his Neurologist said “I bet you took the booster” which indeed he had.  He said he would not take another one. *** I am not advocating  any advice, only sharing a conversation.  I like to provoke thought in each of us.  I encourage research to make your own decisions.

ASHTON RECALLS:  Here's some more of Pauline Kelley Cannon's story:  DAR STUDENT FROM 1942-46 RECALLS EXPERIENCES - (Eleventh Installment of Pauline Kelley Cannon's Memoir). . .I will always believe the Lord used this to bring Ernest and me together. God works in mysterious ways, and it's hard to see what He is doing in our lives until later on. . .When we arrived back at Tamassee, Ernest asked me if he could carry my books, and of course I said yes. From then on he would carry my books to the steps of the South Carolina Building, give me a little hug, and then continue on to his dormitory. He could not take my books to my room because the boys were not allowed in the girls' dormitories. We would see each other again at the evening meal. . .WHEN THE DUPREES wanted to go into town they would bring their two children, Bobby and Peggy, for me to babysit. Peggy was no trouble but Bobby had to be constantly entertained. We would play games for a while and then he would want me to tell him stories. I would tell him about Jack and the Beanstalk, Little Red Riding Hood, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, the Three Bears, and the Three Little Pigs. But he always wanted to hear more stories, and he would not let me tell him the same one twice. When I had told him all the stories I knew, I decided to tell him a ghost story, and, my, what a mistake that was! He started screaming and crying, and I thought I'd never get him to hush. I never tried that anymore.--TO BE CONTINUED NEXT WEEK

EAGLES NEST ART CENTER , 501c3, 4 Eagle Lane, Salem  100% unpaid directors and volunteers                                                                                                                      

Bluegrass Gospel : June 17, 2023, 7pm-9pm.       Celebrating our culture and our roots.    Some of the best music is still being played on our own back porches.  Come out and hear the unique sounds created right here in the hills and foothills of the Carolinas.   On June 17, 2023 come out for Bluegrass Gospel with Chatuga Ridge, made up of Mark and Jodie Vissage of Mountain Rest, SC State  Banjo champion and singer, John Oliver, and the husband-wife Garza Duo   Doors will open at 6pm and the show will start at 7pm with general seating. Come visit our Treasure Store and concessions of homemade goodies and coffee.   Tickets are $10 at the door or on eaglesnestartcenter.org/Ticketleap          

OCONEE MOUNTAIN OPRY:  July 15, 2023 at 7pm-9pm we will hold our 4th Oconee Mountain Opry featuring Spaulding McIntosh, Amelia Hawke, and The Waterkickers.  Tickets are $10 at the door, the day of the event. or can be purchased online a  Doors will open at 6pm and the show will start at 7pm with general seating

Talent Showcase– August 12, 2023– Share your talents for an evening of fun and entertainment.     Email eaglesnestartcenter@gmail.com                                CLASS REUNION **The T-S Class of 1978  is having their 45th Class Reunion at the ENAC on July 28, 6pm-8pm.    We invite any former friends and alumni to join us at our beloved alma mater. **                                                    

                                       CHURCH NEWS                                                       VBS at Boones Creek Baptist Church June 4th-8th from   6pm- 8:15 pm. Ages 4 thru teenagers.  The theme this year is Stellar " Shine Jesus' Light". Any questions or more information contact Darlene at 864-710-8758.                           Salem United Methodist Church:  **Be in prayer for our church and other present United Methodist churches as they face decisions with the Annual Church Conference is held in Columbia, SC this week.      

Blessings to you all this week!  Lynne     

[crocodilesarepolling]

La svolta a destra del Wisconsin

Provo un affetto particolare verso lo stato del Wisconsin. Ho avuto il piacere di visitarlo nel 2011, per uno scambio culturale durante le scuole superiori. Sono stato ospite di una famiglia nelle campagne di Mazomanie, una cittadina di sì e no 1200 abitanti. Qui la vita è molto diversa dalle spiagge della California e dall’Upper East Side di Manhattan che siamo abituati a vedere in TV.

Come prove dello stereotipo americano, ecco il pullman giallo della scuola e la lezione su come sparare con un fucile (2011)

La notte del 4 novembre 2016, Donald Trump vince le elezioni in Wisconsin, guadagnandone i 10 Grandi Elettori. Per la prima volta dal 1984, il Wisconsin ha votato per un Presidente repubblicano. Vediamo perché.

Il Wisconsin è uno stato grande la metà dell'Italia, con soltanto 6 milioni di abitanti. La città più grande dello Stato, Milwaukee, conta 600 mila abitanti, grande circa quindi come Genova. È coperto per quasi metà da foreste. Città e villaggi sono, in media, sparpagliati e di piccole/medie dimensioni.

L'economia del Wisconsin è basata in larga parte su agricoltura e industria manifatturiera. Lo stato è molto famoso per la sua produzione di formaggi e latticini, e si classifica tra i primi dieci stati americani per reddito agricolo. L'industria manifatturiera genera circa il 20% del PIL, uno dei dati più alti negli Stati Uniti; la produzione, generalmente, è di macchinari agricoli e macchine pesanti. A differenza di altri stati, l'economia è qui più basata su industrie medio/piccole; sono soltanto due le grandi aziende che spiccano a livello internazionale, la Manpower e la Harley-Davidson.

Fattorie e campagne intorno a Mazomanie, WI (2011)

Il Wisconsin, insomma, è uno stato con una grossa percentuale di comunità rurali, di agricoltori e di operai; è uno stato mediamente ricco e con un PIL nella media. E come tutte le cose troppo "medie", è facile ignorarlo.

Durante le lezioni del 2016, infatti, il Wisconsin ha dato per la prima volta in più di 30 anni i suoi 10 Elettori al candidato repubblicano, Donald Trump. L'ultima volta che aveva vinto la destra, nello stato, erano state le elezioni del 1984 con Ronald Reagan. Questo perché, tradizionalmente, il Wisconsin ha sempre votato a sinistra nelle elezioni presidenziali: veniva infatti considerato parte del blue wall, l'insieme di stati dove, indipendentemente dalle circostanze, i democratici avrebbero sempre vinto. E così non è stato.

Mazomanie, WI

La sconfitta in Wisconsin non è stata l'unica causa del fallimento della campagna presidenziale di Hillary Clinton, ma è stata sicuramente una delle docce fredde peggiori per la ex First Lady. Fino al giorno prima delle elezioni i sondaggi la davano in testa dell’8%. Il voto ha però portato con sé numeri ben diversi: con appena 28mila voti (lo 0,8%) in più della sua rivale, Donald Trump ha vinto. E i democratici sono rimasti a leccarsi le ferite.

Il successo di Trump nello stato è centro di forti dibattiti, e ci sono svariate teorie a riguardo, ma due sono stati gli elementi che, più degli altri, lo hanno portato a vincere: la disillusione dei blue-collar workers (lavoratori, operai e agricoltori) verso la classe politica, e il disinteresse del Partito Democratico nei confronti del Wisconsin.

Molti blue-collar workers, infatti, si sentivano ingiustamente lasciati indietro da un sistema che non si curava di loro. Non vedevano grandi prospettive di futuro nel loro lavoro, in larga parte agricolo o industriale. La ripresa economica li aveva ignorati, le loro condizioni di vita non erano migliorate, gli stipendi non si erano alzati.

E nonostante molti di loro avessero votato principalmente a sinistra prima di allora, faticavano a riconoscersi nel Partito Democratico. Hillary Clinton era una candidata estremamente impopolare, una politica di professione percepita lontana dai problemi quotidiani degli americani qualunque.

Agli occhi di un operaio bianco, il sistema si stava facendo beffa di lui. Le politiche identitarie della sinistra, che combattevano per maggiori diritti alle donne e alle minoranze nere e latine, avevano iniziato ad additare i bianchi come privilegiati.

E né l'operaio di Darlington né l'agricoltore di Black Earth si sentivano rappresentati, o, tanto meno, privilegiati.

La Clinton inoltre non ha visitato lo stato del Wisconsin nemmeno una volta durante la sua campagna elettorale. Donald Trump, d'altro canto, ha visitato lo stato 6 volte.

Capitol Hill e University of Wisconsin’s Red Gym nella capitale Madison, WI (2011)

Nei suoi comizi, il candidato repubblicano aveva promesso un aumento dei posti di lavoro nell'industria manifatturiera, un miglioramento dei salari e migliori prospettive per il futuro. E mentre il silenzio dei democratici si faceva assordante, Trump prometteva alle folle disilluse un futuro migliore.

Così, dopo una vita passata a votare il Partito Democratico, il Wisconsin ha voltato a destra. Senza nemmeno crederci troppo, e con una certa disperazione. Ma quei 10 Grandi Elettori andati al Partito Repubblicano sono stati uno degli schiaffi più sonori di una campagna elettorale destinata a fallire.

La stessa Clinton ha dichiarato, nel suo libro What Happened :

"... If there's one place where we were caught by surprise, it was Wisconsin. Polls showed us comfortably ahead, right up until the end."

Con le elezioni del 2020 alle porte, i due candidati alla presidenza, Donald Trump e Joe Biden, hanno fatto tesoro degli errori passati, ed entrambi hanno rivolto un'attenzione sempre crescente agli operai e agli agricoltori del Midwest.

Da questa storia, c'è una lezione da imparare: nessun candidato può pensare di vincere se non parla ai lavoratori.

[douglastyre]

Only about 48% of drivers in the UK wear winter tyres when driving throughout the winter. It's shocking to see such a low population given the often hard winters. The same poll reveals that 51% of individuals think of all-season tyres. and Winter Tyres Darlington are adequate for driving in the winter. and are unlikely to make any modifications to the cars to accommodate the colder weather.

[mycelebrityandi]

The All Progressives Congress Campaign Coordinator in Ahoada-West Local Government Area of Rivers State, Chisom Lennard, has been found d€ad hours after he was abducted.   According to PUNCH, Lennard was kidnapped by the gunmen dressed in police uniform while voting for the governorship and state House of Assembly elections was ongoing at Ibagwa polling unit 2 ward 10 in Ahoada West LGA.   It was gathered that the APC chieftain tried to stop the gunmen from snatching election materials when he was whisked away in a commando fashion. Late Lennard’s body was riddled with bullets in a pool of his blood along the Ibueahi-Ubeta road in Ahoada+West LGA of the state on Saturday evening.  The deceased was an estate surveyor and a former board member of the Greater Port Harcourt City Development Authority during the tenure of Rotimi Amaechi.   The State APC Publicity Secretary, Darlington Nwauju, confirmed the sad development to the Punch.    “He was abducted from his polling unit during the voting process and taken away. Nobody knew where they took him to. It was later in the evening of Saturday that his body was discovered.” he said #apc #riversstate #chisomlennard #mycelebrityandi https://www.instagram.com/p/Cp98bcpoBGY/?igshid=NGJjMDIxMWI=

[hardynwa]

Guber Poll: Gunmen abduct APC LG secretary in Rivers

Barely 48 hours to the March 18 Governorship and House of Assembly elections, gunmen in camouflage have abducted Amadi Osaronu, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and party secretary in Ikwerre Local Government Area of Rivers State. DAILY POST gathered that Osaronu was abducted by men dressed in police uniforms from his Aluu community, Ikwerre LGA residence on Wednesday. The State APC Publicity Secretary, Darlington Nwauju, confirmed the incident on Thursday morning. “No amount of force, intimidation, and arm-twisting will change the outcome of the March 18 Governorship and House of Assembly elections, which would be a resounding defeat for the Peoples Democratic Party,” he said. Read the full article

[aheathen-conceivably]

[haftaichinews]

2020 was the year Boris Johnson threw away public trust | James Johnson | Opinion

2020 was the year Boris Johnson threw away public trust | James Johnson | Opinion

Join Hafta-Ichi to Research the article “2020 was the year Boris Johnson threw away public trust | James Johnson | Opinion” In the spring of this year, Boris Johnson was World King. A Morning Consult poll in April found that he was the most popular leader in the western world. In January, at a focus group I ran in Darlington, first-time Conservative voters described him as “strong”, “decisive”…

[ukftm]

To the student finance anon: Me and my friend both changed our names with student finance recently. When you ring up they basically give you an address and ask that you send proof i.e deed poll and a small cover letter (a sentence or two) just to say who you are and what you'd like them to do i.e change your name. The address is: Student Finance England, PO Box 210, Darlington, DL1 9HJ. Feel free to skip the awkward phone call :)

Thanks for sharing!

~ Alex

[desertislandcloud]

MOODBAY are producer-songwriter Alfie Cattell and vocalist-songwriter Anna Stephens. They are based in the North East, UK. Their unusual shade of electropop incorporates a range of genres from R&B to Classical - the duo describe their sound as ‘mood pop’. 

They got together in 2017, after meeting in the corridor of BIMM music school in Manchester. Before Manchester, Anna moved from her home in Darlington to Paris, where she worked at a magazine house. She spent most her time scribbling down poetry at her office desk and staying out late. While completing her French studies in Oxford, she started to put her words to a piano. 

Alfie also started out on piano, and it remains his favourite instrument. He is a self-taught musician, who grew up in North Wales, recreating Zelda tunes on a dusty Yamaha keyboard, in between blue WKD’s and listening to Radiohead. He has honed his studio skills in Moodbay and now produces the edgy sounds that drive Anna’s vocals along. 

Sounds like: Chvrches, Purity Ring The new single from Moodbay is 'Alone' - which has already been picked up by Bob Fischer at BBC Introducing Tees. ​ Moodbay's debut release 'Listen Up' has been well received at radio, which included winning an Amazing Radio listener poll. BBC's Janice Long called the track a 'startling debut' and that it 'leapt out and said play me, play me.' 

The single has been added to over 200 independent Spotify playlists and has taken Moodbay's monthly listeners to figure from 12 (!) to over 15,000 in just a few weeks following the release. There are two mixes by Moodbay; the original chilled mix and the Dark House remix, which has been a hit in the clubs, with a 75% DJ approval rating via Power Promotions (Calvin Harris, Clean Bandit etc), and it is currently at number 10 in the official Music Week Club Chart.)

Links https://www.moodbay.com https://www.youtube.com/moodbay https://www.facebook.com/moodbay https://www.instagram.com/moodbaymusic https://twitter.com/moodbay

[uk-news-talking-politics]

Election 2019: Region-by-region guide to the most volatile election in memory

By Chaminda Jayanetti

This election is the most unpredictable in living memory. Part of the difficulty is that different parts of Britain now vote in very different ways for very different reasons. 'Uniform national swing', once psephological gospel, is dead in a ditch.

That means each region must be viewed on its own - but in each case, it's worth bearing in mind that the benchmark to use when judging this election is the 2017 vote share for each party, not how they're polling right now. Labour could have a great campaign, improve its poll ratings - and still lose a slew of seats.

Northern England

The North East, North West and Yorkshire-Humberside are not a homogenous blob. But across the board, the Tories are targeting Leave-voting ex-industrial heartlands that in many cases have never voted Tory at all. In truth, it's likely that northern core cities are out of play.

There is evidence that Brexit has lost its sheen in the North East more than in Yorkshire. So while Bishop Auckland and Stockton South are do-or-die gains for the Tories, Blyth Valley and North West Durham are harder tasks. If they take those two, they're heading for a solid majority. The midpoint is Darlington, number 47 on their national target seat list. Should the Conservatives win here, Johnson will probably stay in No.10 no matter what happens in London and Scotland.

There is an ethnic factor here. Labour's vote is potentially more secure in ethnically diverse Dewsbury than in the overwhelmingly white Workington, despite the latter having a larger Labour majority.

The Brexit Party is polling better here than elsewhere, although their only plausible seat gain across the country is Hartlepool. As Theresa May discovered to her cost, voters in these seats find it easier to vote for Nigel Farage than for the Tories. The risk of a split Leave vote is much higher here than elsewhere.

Labour will hope its campaign - focused on austerity, inequality and radical reform - will be more persuasive to traditional working class voters, white or otherwise, than the Old Etonian on the other side. Both Labour and the Tories will highlight their spending plans for 'left behind' towns. The question is whether Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity renders all strategies moot.

Midlands and East Anglia

This is mostly solid Leave territory outside Cambridgeshire. The Midlands brought the Tories more joy in 2017 than Theresa May's much-hyped northern targets. Johnson will target his strategy on these seats. If he wins a majority, he'll get it over the line here.

The Tories' targets combine once-solid Labour heartlands and 2017 Labour gains, town seats and city seats, very white seats and ethnically diverse ones, and a smattering of Remain-voting pockets. That last group includes Warwick and Leamington, a tight marginal that ought to stay Labour based on its 58% Remain vote. The Lib Dems are nowhere here - if the Tories retake this seat, tactical voting has failed, the Remain vote has split and Johnson could be in for a good night.

But most of these seats voted Leave, and by some margin. The Tories are chasing a string of Labour-held marginals with often wafer-thin majorities and very small 2017 Lib Dem and Green votes for Labour to cannibalise. The Conservatives are building their entire campaign on winning over Labour Leave voters in Dudley North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Peterborough and Derby North.  Fifteen seats could fall to the Tories on a five percent swing from Labour - potentially neutralising their losses in London and Scotland before we even look at Wales and the North.

The rise of the Brexit Party could also have unpredictable effects. Take Lincoln. The Ukip slump in 2017 ended up helping Labour retake the seat. Could Farage's party take votes from Labour, handing the seat to the Tories? Or will it eat into the Conservatives' natural vote? Other seats like High Peak and Birmingham Northfield are also in this bracket.

Set against this, Labour's strong south Asian vote will be critical to holding onto marginals in Coventry, Birmingham and Wolverhampton - which helps explain the prominent roles the Tories have given to Sajid Javid and Priti Patel.

London

The capital is crucial to the outcome of the election - if the Tories do badly here and in Scotland, it may wipe out their gains in the North and Midlands. If they hold on here, they should stay in power.

London could also be the messiest of all England's electoral battlefields. Let's start with the known knowns. With the Brexit Party marginal in London, middle class Leave voters in the city's outskirts will most likely vote Tory, while its large BME population will strongly lean Labour.

Everyone else is up for grabs.

Working class Leavers will decide whether Dagenham turns Tory or stays Labour. If it's the former, the Tories are in for a very good night. Middle class Leavers should hold Uxbridge for Johnson, but won't be enough by themselves to save Chingford for Iain Duncan Smith. The Lib Dems should oust Zac Goldsmith in Richmond, but will need almost perfectly efficient tactical voting to retake Sutton.

And then there is the clutch of Remainy seats that could become messy three-way marginals. These are among the hardest seats to call - Wimbledon, Putney, Finchley, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea, plus Labour-held Kensington and Battersea.

Three of these seats have Jewish communities alienated from Corbyn's Labour. All of them have large middle class liberal demographics who may lean Lib Dem, but where Labour are the main rivals to the Tories from the 2017 result. Remain voters wanting to stop the Tories could struggle to decide who to back, making tactical voting inefficient and helping the Conservatives hold on with low vote shares. If YouGov's seat-by-seat MRP polling shows which party is best placed to challenge the Tories in each seat, that could have a decisive impact on the outcome.

South West

Traditionally this was a Tory-Lib Dem battleground, but now it's much harder to read. Yes, the Lib Dems have recovered - but where? Are their new voters concentrated in London and its Remainy hinterland? Or are they spread more evenly? If the latter, they could retake old seats in the Leave-voting south west -  North Devon, North Cornwall, Wells. If the regional Tory-Lib Dem swing rises above ten percent, a whole slew of seats come into play - the likes of Thornbury and Yate, Yeovil and Taunton Deane. At that point, the Tories are in huge trouble, needing to win swathes of seats in the Midlands and the North.

Is it plausible? Ten percent is a big swing, but one that doesn't require the Lib Dems to get anywhere near their south west vote share from 2010. Their activists know how to campaign on local issues among Leave voters. But if their recent recovery is concentrated among Remain voters, and their outright pro-Remain stance alienates Leavers, they could be left struggling in the south west, just picking up Cheltenham and ultra-marginal St Ives.

The party may benefit from tactical pro-Remain voting, but in Cornish seats such as Camborne and Newquay, Labour came slightly ahead of the Lib Dems in 2017, making a split vote a big risk. Watch out also for East Devon, where the pro-Remain independent Claire Wright could take the seat from the Tories - but could also be undermined by the local Lib Dems' refusal to stand aside.

As for Labour, their first job will be to hold on to Plymouth Sutton, Bristol North West and Stroud from strong Tory challenges. Hefty Remain votes in the latter two seats should help them. If they can recover in the polls - not relative to their deficit against the Tories in 2017 - only then can they start targeting Conservative marginals like Camborne, Filton, and Swindon South.

Keep an eye on Jacob Rees Mogg's seat in North East Somerset. It voted 52-48 for Leave, and is a natural target for highly motivated tactical voting by Remainers. Rees Mogg's 19% majority may not be as safe as it looks.

Not many people are watching the South West. Perhaps they should be.

South East and the Home Counties

Let's start with the easy bit - Essex and Kent look like safe Tory territory.

Labour has a job on to protect Reading East, Portsmouth South and ultra-marginal Canterbury, and will need either a campaign surge or tactical voting to do so. If Corbyn can turn things around, Labour could take the ultra-marginal Leave-voting targets of Southampton Itchen and Hastings. The exodus of young graduate Remainers from London to the Home Counties could win Crawley, Worthing East, Wycombe, Reading West and the two Milton Keynes seats for Labour. Yes, they need to nail their campaign, but if they do so, tactical voters will fall into line. It just goes to show how vulnerable the Tories are to a Labour campaign recovery.

Then there's the Lib Dems. Tellingly, the party's Tory defector Sam Gyimah is quitting his Surrey seat to stand in Kensington - which tells us how the Lib Dems see their chances in Remain-heavy Surrey. The party is having a bad night if it doesn't take Guildford, but Gyimah's London parachute doesn't suggest the Tory implosion and efficient tactical voting needed to take other Surrey seats is on the cards.

Instead the party will focus on Eastleigh, Lewes, St Albans and Winchester. Taking those four seats would be a good night's work for Swinson.

Wales

With the exception of its Welsh-speaking, Plaid-voting seats, Wales politically resembles northern England - rural Conservatives, Labour core cities, and Leave-voting ex-industrial towns that have been Labour for decades but could now turn blue.

The Tories have roughly the same targets as 2017, plus Gower and Vale of Clwyd, which they carelessly lost to Labour in the Corbyn surge, and Brecon, which fell to the Lib Dems in this year's by-election.

A two percent swing across Wales from Labour to the Tories may not deliver them a single extra seat. A swing between two and four percent would take Gower, Wrexham and Vale of Clwyd, while five seats fall on a swing four-to-six percent. The Tories could gain votes without gaining seats - but past a tipping point, the seats start dropping like flies.

Labour does have Tory-held targets - but it needs to dramatically improve in the polls first. Labour beat the Welsh Tories by 15 points in 2017 - the most recent Welsh poll this month found the Tories leading Labour by four points.

There has been a lot of hype around Plaid of late, but it doesn't have legs - yet. Its one key target of Anglesey could be a three-way battle with Labour and the Tories. Barring a dramatic shift in fortunes during the campaign, any historic breakthrough will have to wait.

Scotland

Around a quarter of Scotland's 59 seats were won by fewer than a thousand votes in 2017, making it heavily laden with marginals.

Whether this election becomes a proxy referendum on Brexit or on independence, it ought to favour the SNP - support for independence has risen since 2017, while tactical voting by Remainers could win back numerous Tory-held seats. Scottish Labour is a mess and the Scottish Tories leaderless.

And yet. The SNP suffered badly from the fall in turnout between the 2015 and 2017 elections, and there's no guarantee the party can motivate those voters back to the polls. While the Tories are rudderless, they still have their Brexit USP, and some of the seats they're defending voted strongly to Leave. If Labour can get a successful national campaign going, that could also feed through north of the border, where the party could take seven SNP seats with a one percent swing.

Bet on the SNP, sure - just don't bet the house on them.