#Black Sea economic diversification

[eeitonline]

Breaking the Mold: Diversifying the Economic Landscape of the Black Sea Region by Eastern European Institute for Trade

The Black Sea region, encompassing countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, has long been characterized by an overdependence on traditional industries, including agriculture, mining, and energy production (Ketenci, 2015; EBRD, 2019). However, for these countries to achieve sustainable economic growth and mitigate risks associated with external shocks, economic diversification is imperative (World Bank, 2017). This article explores the potential avenues for diversification in the Black Sea region, the role of innovation and digital transformation, and the importance of regional cooperation and integration.

A key driver of economic diversification in the Black Sea region is the development of high-value sectors, such as technology, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing (Ciaschi & Treisman, 2018; EBRD, 2019). Investing in research and development (R&D), as well as fostering innovation ecosystems, can facilitate the transition to a knowledge-based economy and enhance competitiveness on the global stage (Ciaschi & Treisman, 2018; Isik et al., 2018).

Digital transformation presents significant opportunities for the Black Sea countries to diversify their economies and unlock new sources of growth. By leveraging emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and big data analytics, businesses can enhance productivity, drive innovation, and create new industries and jobs (World Bank, 2017; Ciaschi & Treisman, 2018). Furthermore, the digital economy can promote financial inclusion and facilitate access to markets for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (EBRD, 2019).

Regional cooperation and integration are critical in promoting economic diversification in the Black Sea region. By deepening economic ties, countries can capitalize on synergies, enhance cross-border investments, and foster knowledge sharing (Ketenci, 2015; World Bank, 2017). Engagement with the European Union (EU) through initiatives such as the Black Sea Synergy and the Eastern Partnership can also provide valuable support in terms of technical assistance and funding for regional projects (Ketenci, 2015; Börzel & Lebanidze, 2017).

In conclusion, diversifying the economic landscape of the Black Sea region is essential for sustainable growth and resilience. By fostering innovation, embracing digital transformation, and strengthening regional cooperation, countries in the area can break the mold and unlock new avenues for economic development.

References:

Börzel, T. A., & Lebanidze, B. (2017). European Neighborhood Policy at the Crossroads: Evaluating the Past to Shape the Future. European Policy Analysis, 3(1), 1–19.

Ciaschi, R., & Treisman, D. (2018). Diversifying the Black Sea Region Economy: Opportunities and Challenges. Journal of Black Sea Studies, 16(1), 1–28.

EBRD (2019). Transition Report 2019–20: Better Governance, Better Economies. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Isik, C., Dogru, T., & Turk, E. S. (2018). A nexus of linear and non-linear relationships between tourism demand, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth: Theory and evidence. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20(1), 38–49.

Ketenci, N. (2015). Economic integration in the Black Sea Region: an analysis in trade, tourism, and foreign direct investment. East European Politics, 31(4), 437–456.

World Bank (2017). World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law. World Bank.

Read more at Eastern European Institute for Trade.

[congruenceadvisers]

Reflecting on the Decade that Went By: A Journey Through the 2010s

Introduction:

As we step into a new era, it's only fitting to pause and reflect on the decade that just passed. The 2010s were a time of remarkable transformation, marked by technological advancements, cultural shifts, and global challenges. From the rise of social media to the growing urgency of climate change, the past ten years have left an indelible mark on our world. Let's take a journey through the key moments, trends, and events that defined this tumultuous yet transformative decade.

Technological Revolution:

The 2010s witnessed an unprecedented explosion of technological innovation. The proliferation of smartphones revolutionized how we communicate, work, and socialize. Apps like Uber and Airbnb disrupted traditional industries, while companies like Apple, Google, and Amazon became household names. The rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning paved the way for new possibilities in healthcare, finance, and transportation. Meanwhile, the advent of social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram transformed how we connect and consume information, ushering in an era of digital interconnectedness.

Cultural Shifts:

The cultural landscape of the 2010s was defined by rapid change and diversification. The #MeToo movement brought issues of sexual harassment and gender inequality to the forefront, sparking a global conversation about power dynamics and accountability. LGBTQ+ rights made significant strides, with landmark victories such as the legalization of same-sex marriage in several countries. Pop culture phenomena like "Game of Thrones," "Hamilton," and "Black Panther" captured the zeitgeist, reflecting shifting attitudes and values. At the same time, the rise of streaming services like Netflix and Spotify revolutionized how we consume media, empowering audiences with greater choice and control.

Global Challenges:

Despite the progress made in various areas, the 2010s were also marked by significant global challenges. Climate change emerged as a defining issue of our time, with extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and melting ice caps underscoring the urgent need for action. The refugee crisis reached unprecedented levels, driven by conflict, persecution, and environmental degradation. Economic inequality continued to widen, exacerbating social tensions and fueling populist movements around the world. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions simmered, with conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and the South China Sea testing international diplomacy and cooperation.

Key Moments and Events:

Several key moments and events punctuated the decade, shaping its trajectory and leaving a lasting impact on society. The Arab Spring uprising, which began in late 2010, swept across the Middle East and North Africa, toppling authoritarian regimes and inspiring hope for democratic change. The Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 highlighted the risks of nuclear power and raised questions about energy policy and safety standards. The election of Barack Obama as the first African American president of the United States in 2008 marked a historic milestone in the fight for racial equality, while his successor, Donald Trump, ushered in a new era of political polarization and uncertainty.

Looking Ahead:

As we bid farewell to the 2010s and embark on a new decade, it's essential to reflect on the lessons learned and the challenges that lie ahead. The rapid pace of technological change, the evolving nature of culture and society, and the pressing need to address global issues like climate change and inequality require bold and innovative solutions. By harnessing the power of technology, embracing diversity and inclusion, and fostering cooperation on a global scale, we can build a brighter future for generations to come. As we reflect on the decade that went by, let us also look forward with hope and determination, knowing that the best is yet to come.

Conclusion:

The 2010s were a decade of profound transformation, characterized by technological innovation, cultural shifts, and global challenges. From the rise of social media to the urgency of climate change, the past ten years have left an indelible mark on our world. As we reflect on the key moments, trends, and events that defined this tumultuous yet transformative decade, let us also look ahead with hope and determination, knowing that the lessons learned and the challenges faced will shape our path forward. As we embark on a new era, may we strive to build a more just, inclusive, and sustainable world for generations to come.

[maxiebalson912-blog]

5 Ideal Worth Seeing Areas In United States.

The title for the urban area of Tehran arises from unfamiliar sources. But while a month long excursion zooming coming from location to place might carry a little bit of culture shock, and also a couple of uneasy experiences, it is actually simply after living listed here that one observes the true China. Yet endure it carried out and in today day it is a booming metropolitan area, full of society, lifestyle and also theological family members, living out their aspirations in a Jewish homeland. Taking Another Look At the Glass House: Contemporary Art and also Modern Construction. From the culturally-rich Mexico Urban area to the architecturally pleasing Vienna, as well as coming from the historic metropolitan area of Rome to the vibrant Addis Ababa, no two urban areas are the same. It also looked at whether an organization between cardiovascular disease and changes in sky contamination exists in clean air metropolitan areas where concentrations of sky contamination differ yet carry out certainly not surpass EU limits. If you deal with chemical cleaning services by flushing them in the toilet, you will certainly infect the wastewater at the local internal procedure location.

In contrast, the 2nd research study was actually performed in the city of Bandar Seri Begawan, in the small Southeast Oriental country of Brunei Darussalam as well as included Malay seniority as well as Chinese adolescence little ones as well as adults. I really like this spot, as well as I am actually so sorry I could not have actually raised my little ones below for the entire time. The metropolitan area covers the chart along with the highest possible scarcity price (39 percent) and the lowest median credit report-- economic variables that are essential anxiety red flags. This is my customer review for the initial PYT Cease Native and Sea Food Restaurant (Property of the happiest boodle match expertise in Iloilo City) along Burgos Road in La Paz, Iloilo Area, Philippines. Position in many checklists as the metropolitan area with the greatest criminal activity, or even the most risky area is Detroit With a long history of violence it has actually only gotten worse with its own thirteen percent joblessness price, making it some of awful urban areas in Michigan to stay as well as that of United States. I found the seminar exactly how clean as well as eco-friendly metropolitan area seminar was actually room was actually totally there was actually no Air Conditioner so the area was very hot.However, I understand exactly how our company can keep Dhaka urban area well-maintained, So our team have to be actually mindful for have to throw waste on dustbin. In Concrete Repair Work, Recovery and Retrofitting II: Proceedings of the second International Association on Concrete Repair Service, Rehab as well as Retrofitting (ICCRRR), Peninsula Community, South Africa, 24-26 November 2008, edited by Sign G. Alexander, Hans-Dieter Beushausen, Frank Dehn, as well as Pilate Moyo, 311-12. Wilson clarified that in metropolitan areas along with much smaller minority populaces, Black Americans may actually go through even more at the hands of building bigotry than in areas along with much larger black populaces. Future Anterior: Publication of Historic Maintenance Past, Theory and also Objection 4 (2 ): xii, 1-11. T is important to choose the correct gutter guards for your gutter to guarantee that you will definitely not must spend any time cleaning the leaves and also particles coming from your house's gutter systems. LAHORE - The Lahore Rubbish Management Company (LWMC), kept a hygiene recognition initiative in different areas of the provincial metropolis on Tuesday. This affiliation held also after the researchers accounted for other potential factors, consisting of total populace, variety of law enforcement workers, typical age, gender circulation, nationality distribution, destitution cost, unemployment fee, unseen diversification one of cities (e.g., city place, legal unit), http://cwicz-fitness.info/zredukowany-poziom-cholesterolu-normalnie/ and also unseen time-varying results (e.g., macroeconomic conditions).

[architectnews]

Norilsk Design Competition, Russia

Norilsk Design Competition, North Russian Architecture Contest, CENTER Lab News

Norilsk Open International Design Competition

15 Jul 2021

Location: Krasnoyarsk Krai, northern Russia

Norilsk Calls For Architects Around The Globe

Norilsk Open International Competition

An Open International Competition for the development of an architectural and planning renovation concept for the city of Norilsk up to 2035 was announced today by the TASS information agency. The competition was initiated by the city administration and the Norilsk Development Agency (ARN). The operator is CENTER Lab, an international urbanist laboratory.

The competition participants will be given a particularly challenging task: they will need to take into account the unique geographical location of Norilsk, as well as its climatic characteristics, historical development features, and the new vision for its territory. Norilsk is currently seeing active development both as a world-class metalworking hub and a skill, knowledge, and research center in the Arctic.

The mission is to evolve from the concept of a monocity, where the entire community works in a single industry. Norilsk wants to expand its specialization by supporting business, creativity, and tourism.

“All of us have a lot of work to do if we want to renovate the city of Norilsk. The process will include renovating the existing housing stock and building new residences, schools, kindergartens, outpatient clinics, and other social facilities. The concept will, first and foremost, give us a future-focused understanding of our city’s architectural and planning features. The wishes and suggestions of the local community will absolutely be reflected in the Norilsk renovation concept. What we are talking about here is a qualitative transformation of the city, meaning that we will have to use the latest innovative materials and technologies. The competition for the development of an architectural and planning renovation concept for the city of Norilsk up to 2035 is an international event, so we are expecting to see a lot of interesting ideas and proposals from all over the world,” says Dmitry Karasev, mayor of Norilsk.

The international competition is open to Russian and foreign professional organizations specializing in integrated land development and urban planning, architecture, design, creation of concepts for the development of public spaces, master planning, who are able to attract specialists in economics, finance, and content programming.

The participants will have to propose solutions on making the city more appealing as a place to live, study, and work in; improving social activity in urban areas; overhauling the existing territories; and developing the transport and engineering infrastructures.

“Just as the initial city development in Norilsk was carried out in the classical revival through the efforts of architects and town planners from different cities and republics, the current renovation of Norilsk will also be a team project involving professionals from all over,” says Maksim Mironov, director of the Norilsk Development Agency. “The renovation of Norilsk is currently the Arctic region’s most ambitious project aimed residential, social, and utility infrastructure construction. The final execution will follow the architectural and planning concept selected during the contest, and will involve highly qualified professionals with relevant experience.”

The judges will include government officials from Norilsk and Krasnoyarsk Krai; representatives of Nornickel and the Norilsk Development Agency; and Russian and international experts in integrated land development, ecology, economics and spatial planning, marketing and communications, and technologies and innovations.

“When I visited Norilsk a few years ago, I was amazed to find many, many people who were interested in building something new in their city. The creation of these new facilities is an immense challenge for Norilsk due to its highly specific location and climate. The city needs to find creative, contemporary ideas. I am confident that this competition will bring together the international knowledge and experience of talented architects and urbanists,” said Cees Donkers, architect and urban designer from the Netherlands, during a conference call.

The creation of the architectural and planning concept is an important stage of the city’s social and economic development program under the four-sided agreement between the government of the Russian Federation, the government of Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Norilsk city administration, and Nornickel.

Signed in February 2021, this document allocates RUB 120 billion for the program’s collective funding. Out of this amount, RUB 24 billion are provided from the federal budget; 14.7 billion come from the consolidated budget of Krasnoyarsk Krai; and 81.3 billion are invested by Nornickel. The company also intends to provide up to RUB 150 billion of additional funding until 2035.

Nornickel’s goal is to create favorable opportunities and environment for the city’s development and sustainable growth. Today, we have every opportunity to turn Norilsk into a city of the future. To achieve this, we need to engage with the best experts from Russia and beyond, and use the latest architectural and technological solutions, both when designing residential buildings and public space and when creating a utility infrastructure,” comments Larisa Zelkova, Senior Vice-President at Nornickel.

To take part in the competition, candidates need to fill out an application on the official competition website at: https://ift.tt/2UOtBm0 between July 13 and September 21, and provide a portfolio of completed projects that demonstrate relevant experience, along with an essay with a description of ideas for the future development of Norilsk that would maximize its potential.

In October, the judges will assess the applications and select the three finalists. The finalists will then start working on Norilsk renovation concepts. The competition will complete in March 2022.

“The competition that we announced today is truly global, not just in format but in meaning as well. The world will give Norilsk its best practices in territorial development, urban planning, and architecture; and Norilsk, in return, will give the world a unique case of urban renovation beyond the Arctic Circle, and demonstrate its new development ambitions. We are hoping that the experience that the participants will leverage when designing their submissions will spur on the city’s long-term development,” highlights Sergei Georgievskii, cofounder of CENTER Lab.

Norilsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia

Norilsk is a city built in the Russian Arctic, almost exactly on the 69th parallel north. It is one of the coldest cities in the world and the northernmost community of over 150,000 people. The origins of Norilsk go back to the discovery of rich deposits of nickel and copper in the area. Geological exploration around the modern Norilsk began in 1919. In 1935, a decision was made to build the Norilsk Combined Plant and the eponymous workers’ settlement nearby.

The formation of the existing urban planning structure in Norilsk began in 1939, when the Leningrad architects Witold Niepokojczycki and Lydia Minenko were tasked with designing a master plan for an “appropriately modern, comfortable city.” The first wave of development was in the classical revival style. In the 1960s, standardized construction trends were introduced into the local architecture, and over time, the city districts were rigidly divided by construction period.

Autonomous Non-profit Organization “Norilsk Development Agency” is a territorial development institution that supports improving the quality of life in Norilsk, developing the social environment and bolstering the city’s human resources. The Agency strives to create favorable conditions for the city’s sustainable socio-economic development, shape a favorable investment climate, and execute economic diversification and urban transformation projects. The Agency’s main focus areas are: business environment development, urban environment development, tourism development, investments, and socio-cultural and educational projects.

CENTER Lab is an international urban laboratory, bringing together unique experts on transforming the environment of the modern world. The laboratory offers solutions both for cities and for territories well beyond their borders. It specializes in analytical research and projects that benefit both businesses and the government. Its main objective is to bring new life to territories of any scale. CENTER Lab and Agency for Strategic Development CENTER are both part of the CENTER Group.

Sirius seafront promenade competition, Russia images / information received 060721 from Strelka KB

Location: Sirius, Krasnodar Krai, Russia

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[architectuul]

FOMA 12: Gratitude Without Name

FOMA goes this time to Romania. Luca Chiselef uploaded many buildings to our catalogue. His Forgotten Masterpieces are hidden mostly in Constanta, Romania. We invite our community to help us discover more Romania!

Constanta or Tomis according to the legend when Jason and Argonauts landed here after finding the Golden Fleece. | Photo via Romaniadacia

Romania has existed only since the middle of the nineteenth century. Like they are lost in-between other nations around them, Romanians speaking a Latin tongue, have occupied what came to be known as Wallachia, Moldavia and Transylvania, an area defined by rivers Tisa, Dniester and Danube. On this territory, at the western coast of the Black Sea lies the city Constanta, an ancient metropolis and the largest Romanian port, the fourth largest in Europe, immediately after Rotterdam, Antwerp and Marseilles.

Continental hotel inviting tourist to the city of Constanta. | Photo via Kolector

Constanta suffered a lot of demolitions within different times. The stories of valuable buildings that no longer exist, starts with a Carlton - Continental complex, consisted of two unified buildings that has for decades marked the Ferdinand Boulevard. In the early 1900s a small neoclassical Continental hotel was positioned at the intersection of Tomis Boulevard and Ferdinand Avenue. In the early 1930s the Art Deco Carlton Hotel by Harry Goldstein was annexed to the Continental. The reinforcement of the communist regime latter on bring the end for the two buildings. Instead of the Continental a dull cube was constructed. In the 1990s the hotel became part of demolition process.

The demolition was suspended and the city center of Constanta stayed in ruins from 1994 to 2000. | Photo via Joienegru

Coexistance of the ruins and life in Constanta. | Photo by Mihail Serbanescu, Cuget Liber newspaper (1997)

As a national culture can not generally exist outside the sphere of the universal culture, Romanian architects have affirmed the integration of the new system. The years after the World War II have prompted the capital owners to launch real estate investments in order to avoid the risk of devaluation. At the same time, the introduction of new construction technologies, mainly the widespread use of reinforced concrete, took place in the building of the county. The modern Romanian architecture was immune to a balanced, moderate renewal, but has found resources for an intense force in expression.

Considered as a modernized activity, amplified starting with this tumultuous period of history, tourism and hotel constructions find their expression in interesting projects, located in urban areas, or in the surroundings of the sea and mountain resorts. 

Rex Hotel by George Matei Cantacuzino. | Photo by W. Weiss (Cantacuzino; Paul Marinescu Archive, Bucharest)

The widespread launch of modern architecture in Romania took place in the early years of the fourth decade, when it began to be seen as a symbol of progress. It experienced an impressive expansion by quality and quantity, permanently marking the silhouette of the capital and some of the great cities of the country. Modern architecture operates with principles that defines clearly in relation to the nature and the site. The formal simplicity brought by modern architecture, was often put in connection with the force of the vernacular architecture. The accuracy of the shapes, the pure volumes, the clarity of composition and the refined simplicity of the vernacular architecture, were Corbusier's remarks at his journey in Romania at the beginning of the century. Le Corbusier empathized with the bright colored Romanian Cula.

The Romanian Cula, a semi-fortified house, served for the boyar class to defend against the incursions. | Photo via Romania

Mamaia lies in Constanta municipality and represents the most popular resort at the Romanian Black Sea. It has very few permanent residents, but it is overpopulated during the summer. On the shores of Mamaia, Ioan Capsuneanu built an unique building that is also his most representative work. The Vapor House reproduced the form of a boat hosted a yacht club, salvamar, restaurant and casino. In the 1960s the communist authorities decided to redistribute the ground floor of the building. As one of the resistance walls was broken, the building partially collapsed. It was proposed to be rebuilt in Bucharest, but the request was refused, therefore they demolished it.

The Vapor House before demolition. | Photo via Skyscrapercity

The field of industrial constructions have an important creative impulse in Romania. The enormous transformation of industrial technologies become an objective necessity in the way of conforming this type of architecture. Big industrialists, eager to benefit from the modern spaces required by the new technological processes. The Anghel Saligny Silos is the most impressive historical industrial building in Constanta. 

The economic development followed by the diversification of industrial space, led to synchronization with new technology. | Photo via Wikimapa

Socialist architecture of the Romanian Academy Library. | Photo by Danielzolli

The concrete Library of the Romanian Academy brought together several funds of books scattered in various locations in Transylvania. All dispersed collections have been reunited in the Cluj-Napoca encyclopaedic research library, one of the most important in Romania.

Every article on the Balkans seems obliged to start with a commentary on the region’s tangled past. Dan Teodorovici’s George Matei Cantacuzino: A Hybrid Modernist (Wasmuth, 2014) is no exception.

The cover of George Matei Cantacuzino: A Hybrid Modernist, featuring the Bellona Hotel at Eforie (1933) | Photo via metropolismag

Carlton Bloc in Bucharest in 1936. | Photo via metropolismag

The term Modernism is in the Romanian context directly associated with the legacy built since the 1920s. This period is perceived as a representative of the Romanian Modern Movement, in sync with the Western avantgarde. However, industrial traces even with Modern influences were left on the national territory mostly by the 1945–89 Communist forced industrialization. It was also possible to investigate its destiny in the present context, dominated by a general resentment directed towards political labeled built environment. This analysis highlighted the vulnerability of the Romanian heritage in the present context.

Ruins of the Union of Romanian architects was a meeting place for the intellectual elite in 19th century in Bucharest. | Photo via Architonic

___

#FOMA 12: Luca Chiselef

Luca Chiselef is a freelance artist from from Constanța, Romania. He completed studying an architecture specialization at the National Fine Art College in Constanta, and studied at the Architecture University in Bucharest. He works in visual media environments and as an online editor at LPC Editor, a project based on photography, editing, architectural visualization, art experiments. He was also a designer in an educational research institute in Bucharest and is involved in The Urban Regeneration Project that aims to re-integrate valuable cultural spaces into the city’s cultural and economic circuit through a platform that encourages both the involvement of the general public and young creative industry professionals.

[mideastsoccer]

Fragile Big Power Relationships Add to Middle Eastern Uncertainty

A web of relationships between Turkey, Russia, Iran, and China have to a significant degree shaped Middle Eastern and North African geopolitics. The fragility of those relationships, however, begs the question whether fluidity in regional geopolitics rather than paradigm shifts is, at least for now, the name of the game.

by James M. Dorsey

An initial version of this story was first published in Inside Arabia

A podcast version of this story is available on Soundcloud, Itunes, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn, Spreaker, Pocket Casts, Tumblr, Podbean, Audecibel, Patreon and Castbox.

Fraught with multiple powder kegs that could blow up at any moment, Turkish-Russian relations constitute a study in the management of a new world order’s seemingly fragile alliances.

Much like relations between Russia and China, Russia and Iran, Turkey and Iran, and Turkey and China, Turkish-Russian ties are fragile despite the fact that they, contrary to Western perceptions, are not just opportunistic and driven by short-term common interests but also grounded in a degree of shared values.

The fact of the matter is that men like presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, find common ground in a view of a new world order that rejects democracy and the rule of law; disregards human and minority rights; flaunts, at least for now, violations of international law; and operates on the principle of might is right.

That glue, however, is insufficient, to prevent Turkey and Russia from ending up on opposite sides of conflicts in Libya and Syria.

It is also unlikely to halt the gradual erosion of a presumed division of labour in Central Asia with Russia ensuring security and China focusing on economic development. And it is doubtful it would alter the simmering rivalry between Iran and Russia in the Caspian Sea and long-standing Russian reluctance to sell Iran a badly needed anti-missile defense system.

Similarly, the balance of power in Syria where Russia and Iran are hoping to reap the economic benefits of reconstruction after having played the key role in securing President Bashar al-Assad’s military victory could shift dramatically if and when China commits to investing in the war-devastated country. Neither Russia nor Iran have the financial muscle to compete.

So far, Turkey, Russia, China, and Iran have been adept at ensuring that differences do not get out of hand. The question is whether stopgap management of potential blow-ups is sustainable.

In Libya, Turkey temporarily halted drone operations to allow Russian mercenaries to evacuate areas lost to the Turkish-backed, internationally recognized Islamist Government of National Accord (GNA) after Turkish electronic warfare whacked Russian anti-defense missile systems operated by Moscow-supported rebels led by self-appointed Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar.

In Syria, Russia and Turkey have negotiated an uneasy ceasefire and security arrangement in Idlib, one of the last rebel strongholds, following clashes in which Turkey dealt a serious blow to the Russian and Iranian-backed forces of President Bashar al-Assad.

The band aid-solutions may serve immediate economic interests and geopolitical goals but do little to mask the four powers’ seemingly incompatible long-term hegemonic ambitions.

“What is Turkey doing [in Libya]?” asked Mesut Hakki Casin, a member of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Security and Foreign Policy Board. “The reason is that Ottomans conquered Egypt after establishing dominance and control in the straits of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Turkey is in Libya because of historical and political reasons.”

Diverging interests do not only play out on the battlefield, as is evident in the shifting balance of power in Central Asia. They are also evident in the competition in arms sales.

The credible performance of Turkish drones in Libya and Syria have boosted demand for Turkish-made unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems and dented the infatuation with Russian anti-missile defense batteries.

Dubbed Bayraktar TB-2 and Anka-S, Turkish drones destroyed Russian-backed Syrian military units in northern Syria earlier this year even though they operated Russia’s Pantsir and Buk surface-to-air missile systems. A similar scenario played out in the defeat in western Libya of Mr. Haftar’s forces.

Clashing interests in Libya and Syria and economic woes at home accelerated by the fallout of the pandemic, persuaded Mr. Erdogan to seek to improve relations with the United States and rejuvenate his personal relationship with President Donald J. Trump while massaging his ties to Russia.

In a recent gesture, Botas, Turkey’s state-owned gas grid operator, opened a tender for the construction of a pipeline to Nakhichevan, an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. The pipeline would allow Azerbaijan to reduce imports from Iran.

Lobbyists in the United States for the Turkish business community are seeking to capitalize on the opening by pushing an offer by a Louisiana energy company to provide Turkey with “long-term, secure, competitively priced access to Turkey’s LNG terminals, gas pipeline and storage facilities” that would make the country less dependent on Russian and Iranian imports.

Mr. Erdogan and his energy minister, Fatih Donmez, have pushed the notion of diversification of Turkey’s energy imports.

“From Syria to Libya, from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, Erdogan now figures that Turkey needs America politically and strategically more than it did some months ago. He learned by experience that getting the United States on board by making Trump his personal friend is easier than any other way,” said veteran Turkish journalist Cengiz Candar.

Mr. Erdogan is banking on his past experience of talking to Mr. Trump directly and getting what he wants despite opposition from the Pentagon as was the case with Turkey’s most recent intervention in Syria.

“To be honest, after our conversation tonight, a new era can begin between the United States and Turkey,” Mr. Erdogan said during a television interview afterward speaking to Mr. Trump by phone on June 9.

Mr. Erdogan’s approach may not be available to Iran with its deeply engrained distrust of the United States, but it certainly is what guides the thinking regarding Russia of numerous European leaders and politicians. No doubt, it is also an option that Mr. Putin has not lost sight of.

The web of relationships between China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran may seem formidable but the complexity of Turkish-Russian relations suggests that they may be built on more quicksand than any of the players are willing to admit.

On the principle of “It ain’t over until the fat lady has sung,” that is something that Gulf and other Middle Eastern leaders no doubt have taken note of.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. He is also an adjunct senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and co-director of the University of Wuerzburg’s Institute of Fan Culture in Germany

[edisonashley]

Pandemic Impact on the Nigerian Economy: The Significance of Maritime Resources Amidst Plummeting Oil Prices

It is trite that the global pandemic crisis has marked a deteriorating effect on the world economy. This epidemiological threat inflicts a disruption on the free flow of international trade, making it difficult to demand and supply goods locally and internationally, and creating problems of rendering labour services in affected areas. Amidst this, decreasing oil prices, fall in stock markets, and so on, continue to plummet. This article seeks to buttress the importance of maritime resources to economic growth, deliberate on the marine and petroleum dichotomy and provide recommendations for the use of blue economy for development.

The world is faced with its biggest health emergency issue and there are fears that this might lead to a global economic recession. In the United States of America, a travel ban on 26 European countries came into effect and the unprecedented move sent stocks crashing to their worst losses in over 30 years. The Black Monday witnessed the plunge in oil prices to $30 per barrel, an all-time low since 1987. All these, and more, project the fallout of the economy. These statistics are alarming, especially for oil dependent countries. For instance, Nigeria produces about 2.5 million barrels per day and generates a majority of her revenue from these products. Therefore, the current realities create an impending doom for her economic sector, and the need for diversification cannot be overstated at this present time.

Nigeria’s rich mineral deposits, internal water network, shipping and coastline depicts that she boasts of a huge Maritime sector. Unfortunately, these maritime resources are hardly harnessed. For Nigeria to maximize her vast coastline, there is a need to facilitate trade between and among her landlocked neighbours. Nigeria should focus on creating a more enabling infrastructure including digital logistics, inland waterways expansion, foreign direct investment and encouraging more private investors to enter the maritime business, as this will bring incentives for expansion. This will be beneficial to Nigeria and help boost the economic situation of major landlocked countries in West Africa such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. Amidst the current epidemic realities, Nigeria needs to focus on exportation over importation, as the hike in the dollar rate makes it difficult to patronize foreign goods.

Furthermore, the importance of Maritime to oil production cannot be undermined. The vast oceans and seas are used for oil exploration, as seen in offshore oil productions, and the transportation of these products are done through adequate shipping networks. However, petroleum production is not the only item on the Maritime agenda, and the belief that states must choose between it and other uses of the sea is a false dichotomy. A moderate plan for maritime governance would focus on an objective inventory of resources available and tools required for optimum exploitation and sustainable development. Thus, maritime and petroleum resources go together, but there is a need to look beyond that at this point in time.

In addition, it is recommended that the blue economy concepts come to the rescue of Nigeria’s sinking economy. First off, the maintenance of the seaports should be the top priority, and the seaports should be majorly for exports. There is a need to set an adequate port infrastructure quality and logistics performance that will enhance seaborne trades, as this will have a significant impact on the economy. Also, an adoption of the E-Customs method is recommended. The manner and method of operations of the Nigerian Custom services will improve, with imports and exports becoming paperless and easier. Attention should also be given to maritime security and safety; Nigeria loses a huge amount of revenue to oil bunkering. It was reported that the oil productions from oil bunkering is the seventh largest production in Africa, resulting in a loss of about $6 billion per annum.

Conclusively, in spite of all its promises, the potential to develop a strong Maritime sector is limited by a series of challenges. Importantly, there is the need to overcome current economic trends that are rapidly degrading the sector through the unsustainable extraction of marine resources, physical alterations of the ports, to mention but a few. Regardless, harnessing the maritime resources and making use of the maritime mechanisms seem to be a viable option to surviving the current realities of the plunging oil prices which is taking its toll on the Nigerian economy.

Olu-Ashake Boluwatife Victor is a final year law student of the University of Lagos, and the president of the Maritime Forum. He has keen interest in Maritime, commercial, Energy and Environmental law, with aspirations to grow in these fields. He has evolved through various trainings, Internships, volunteering services and attended numerous conferences. 

The post Pandemic Impact on the Nigerian Economy: The Significance of Maritime Resources Amidst Plummeting Oil Prices appeared first on Lawyard.

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[eeitonline]

Breaking the Chains: Overcoming Economic Sanctions in the Black Sea and Eastern Europe by Eastern European Institute for Trade

by Eastern European Institute for Trade

Amidst the tumultuous political landscape of Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, economic sanctions have become an increasingly prevalent tool employed by nations to exert pressure and achieve strategic objectives. Consequently, countries in the region grapple with the challenge of overcoming such sanctions to maintain economic resilience and development. This article will delve into the various mechanisms that states can utilize to mitigate the impact of economic sanctions, while simultaneously fostering an environment conducive to sustainable growth (Adams, 2017; Baranova, 2019).

Economic sanctions often hinder trade and investment, with a particularly pronounced impact on energy, finance, and technology sectors (Fry, 2020). To counterbalance these detrimental effects, countries should prioritize economic diversification, thereby reducing overreliance on vulnerable industries. Promoting domestic entrepreneurship and investing in research and development can facilitate the emergence of new, competitive sectors, thereby enhancing economic resilience (Chen, 2018).

Moreover, exploring alternative trade partners and forging robust economic alliances can help circumvent the constraints imposed by sanctions. Nations such as Turkey and China have emerged as key actors in the Eastern European and Black Sea region, providing opportunities for trade and investment partnerships that can bolster economic growth (Baranova, 2019; Fry, 2020). By expanding their diplomatic horizons, countries in the region can navigate geopolitical complexities and maintain a degree of economic stability.

Digitalization and technological innovation also offer pathways to overcoming economic sanctions. The adoption of blockchain technology, for instance, can enable secure and transparent transactions, potentially mitigating the impact of financial restrictions (Chen, 2018). Additionally, fostering digital economies and embracing e-commerce can help offset the disruption of traditional trade channels, allowing countries to circumvent some of the negative consequences of sanctions (Adams, 2017).

Lastly, bolstering regional cooperation and coordination can be instrumental in mitigating the repercussions of economic sanctions. By working collaboratively, nations in the Eastern European and Black Sea region can develop shared strategies and leverage their collective strengths to overcome the obstacles posed by sanctions (Baranova, 2019). Such cooperative efforts may include the establishment of regional trade blocs or the development of joint infrastructure projects that enhance connectivity and integration.

In summation, the challenge of overcoming economic sanctions in the Eastern European and Black Sea region demands a multifaceted, proactive approach. By embracing economic diversification, forging new partnerships, leveraging technology, and enhancing regional cooperation, countries can break the chains of sanctions and pave the way for sustained economic growth.

References:

Adams, J. (2017). Economic Sanctions and Their Impact on Eastern Europe. Journal of European Studies, 13(3), 75-90.

Baranova, E. (2019). Overcoming Economic Sanctions in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region: Strategies and Challenges. European Journal of Political Economy, 59, 221-237.

Chen, L. (2018). Navigating Economic Sanctions: The Role of Technology and Innovation. Technology and Innovation, 20(1), 31-45.

Fry, M. (2020). Eastern Europe and the Black Sea: Economic Sanctions and Their Implications. Geoeconomics, 5(2), 105-121.

Read more at the Eastern European Institute for Trade.

[cn21public-blog]

Intermarium: subjects and fields of integration 1. Goal: creation of the self-sufficient confederation of Eastern and Central European independent as a forthcoming geopolitical player.

2. Subjects: the first phase of integration - the BBSU (Baltic-Black Sea Union): Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Estonia.The second phase of integration - the Adriatic - Baltic - Black Sea Union: Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic. 

Potential partnership countries: Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Macedonia, Georgia.

3. Fields of integration:

Security and Defense: cration of a unified system for trainings of the military forces (joint trainings, exchange of instructors\teachers of military educational institutions etc.), a joint system of air defense and information security, joint response forces, close cooperation between military intellogence units of the participating countries, developing the nuclear capability of the region on a basis of restoring Ukraine`s nuclear status on the legal grounds.

Energy independence of the region: investigation of the alternative energy sources, development of the own mineral deposits, gaining energy independence world leaders of the oil market, cooperation in the diversification of traditional energy sources suppliers.

Economic activities: a regional customs union, free trade area, cooperation in the manufacturing of high-tech products, technology exchange, cration of joint production cycles.

Cultural cooperation: prevention of the migrant`s dominance in the Itermarium countries, opposition to the destructive processes of the family institution elimination, developing distinctive and self-sufficient culture caused by globalization, struggling against destructive art trends.

Development of science and education: a unified system of high education, diplomas verification, development of innovative technologies (medicine, communication, etc.), a goint program of space exploration, a joint resach program for the Arctic, the Antarcnic and the World Ocean.

[preciousmetals0]

Fed on the Run; Apple Stunned; Airlines Plunge

Fed on the Run; Apple Stunned; Airlines Plunge:

When the Fed Hits the Fan…

Anyone else feel like they’re stuck in a time loop?

This morning, U.S. futures trading halted after hitting a down-limit loss of 5% … again. Then, immediately after the markets opened for regular trading, stocks plunged 8% to trigger another halt … again.

This fresh round of Wall Street panic selling was brought to you by the Federal Reserve and China … again.

On Sunday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell slashed the U.S. central bank’s key interest rate to essentially 0% and announced $700 billion in quantitative easing. Powell also cut the rate at which the Fed charges banks for short-term emergency loans (i.e., the “discount window”).

The last time that the Fed took such drastic measures was in the middle of the 2008 financial crisis. What’s more, these emergency measures were so critical, they couldn’t wait until the Federal Open Market Committee meeting slated for this week.

Adding fuel to the fire, Chinese economic data arrived this weekend, and it wasn’t pretty.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales plummeted 20.5% year over year in January and February. Industrial output fell 13.5%, and fixed-asset investments plunged almost 25%. All three readings were far below economists’ expectations.

Analysts now project that the Chinese economy will contract 6% in the first quarter — its worst decline since 1976.

The Takeaway:

Nothing says “market confidence” like two interest rate cuts in less than a month.

I’m not saying that the Fed is wrong. I’m just saying it could’ve handled the situation better. For instance, did cutting rates to zero really need to happen two days before the Fed’s policy-setting meeting this week?

But then, maybe this rate cut couldn’t wait.

After all, restaurants and bars across the country are shuttering for all but carryout orders. All major sports are on hold. That will have a significant economic impact — I don’t care who you are.

On an anecdotal note, I had to stop by my local Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) this weekend, as my TV kicked the bucket on Friday. Great timing, right?

Apparently, this Best Buy was almost out of computer monitors and big-screen TVs. With everyone stuck at home, suddenly-remote employees are snapping up computer monitors. Meanwhile, big screens are in vogue for hunkering down on the couch to binge Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) and The Walt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) Disney+.

However, if China’s economic data are anything to go by, this anecdotal bump will be short-lived. If anything, the data show that the U.S. could very well be headed toward a recession.

So, in response to the Fed’s move and the threat of a U.S. recession, Great Stuff recommends a new position today: ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE: SH).

The SH is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that moves inversely to the S&P 500 Index — i.e., when the S&P 500 goes down, SH goes up, and vice versa.

Why do you want to buy SH? Because we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg on the coronavirus’ impact on the U.S. economy. This will get worse as the virus spreads, forcing more retail locations to temporarily close.

The idea here is to hedge your portfolio with SH … to help mitigate the losses on your main holdings.

Combined with our previous suggestions — the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq: TLT), the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF) — this should offer you a solid shelter from the market’s worst losses.

Let’s make it an official Great Stuff pick. Buy ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE: SH).

Now, if all this “recession” talk still sounds too preemptive, well … just listen to what this former Washington insider has to say…

Going: Apple’s China Inversion

When 42 doors open, another 500 close … or something like that.

Last week, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) announced that it would reopen its 42 Chinese retail locations. Great Stuff believed this was a sign that the worst had passed for COVID-19 in China. What we didn’t count on is the closure of Apple’s nearly 500 other stores around the globe.

In a letter from CEO Tim Cook, Apple announced that it will close all retail locations outside of greater China until March 27. In addition to the closures, Apple also said that employees should work remotely if possible.

This is quickly becoming a common theme across the U.S. Apple currently operates about 500 stores worldwide. Sales from these stores, when combined with online and direct sales, made up about 30% of Apple’s total revenue last year.

It seems like it’s back to the coal mine for this canary. We’ll file this as yet another reason to jump into SH today … before more hard data come out on the U.S. retail impact.

Going: COVID-Air

If you’re looking for a sector to avoid like the … well, plague … anything to do with travel is a good place to start.

Case in point: This weekend, American Airlines Group Inc. (Nasdaq: AAL) said that it suspended 75% of its international flights from the U.S. — starting today. The airline said the move was in response to plummeting demand and government travel restrictions surrounding COVID-19.

Due to the virus’ spread, the company had already reduced its capacity — essentially, how many seats it has in the air flying any one route. American now anticipates that domestic capacity will drop 20% year over year in April, with May’s capacity falling 30%.

The company’s announcement follows on the heels of similar cuts by Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: UAL).

So far today, all three major U.S. air carriers are down sharply. UAL is down more than 10%. DAL fell about 5%, and AAL was last off about 3%.

Gone: I’m Not on a Boat

So, I hope you didn’t plan on riding out the COVID-19 pandemic at sea…

In a speech on Friday, President Trump said that major U.S. cruiselines would suspend operations for 30 days to stem the coronavirus’ spread.

Following Trump’s announcement, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) announced it suspended all voyages on its global fleet through April 11.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) will also suspend operations. In an announcement today, the company said that it was impossible to project earnings for the current year, but that it expects to record a loss for fiscal 2020. Carnival also said that it’ll borrow about $3 billion for six months under its existing credit lines.

I think the takeaway here is clear: 2020 will be a really tough year for cruiseline operators.

Today’s Chart of the Week comes courtesy of Reddit user Jerschneid. The chart was posted in the subreddit /r/DataIsBeautiful, and it lends perspective to the severity of the recent market plunge.

The 2020 coronavirus dive is in light blue off to the left. You’ll note that we’ve only seen this kind of speedy retreat twice before: after the Great Depression and 1987’s Black Monday.

That’s not good company to be in. However, just because these market crashes lasted for years doesn’t mean that this one will. I don’t share this chart to make you panic … but merely to put the current decline in perspective.

As always, don’t panic. Take things one day at a time. Breathe. And wash your hands!

Finally, enhance your calm, John Spartan, and try to have a joy-joy day — although with toilet paper in short supply, you’ll have to eventually figure out the three seashells.

Great Stuff: Don’t YOLO This Market Decline!

I realize that today’s market is a bit like watching a traumatizing blooper reel. (And for any masochist options traders out there sitting on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) puts, this is a feeding frenzy … and my, we’re just getting started!)

The fact is, the wounds of crashes past are more than paper losses — they cut deep, emotional routs that are hard to come back from. I get it. Thousands of investors walked away from 2008 with no desire to invest again.

But whether the worst is behind us or still ahead … you don’t have to go through this alone.

The experts here at Banyan Hill have weathered many a market storm — including several of the crashes in today’s Chart of the Week.

Take Ted Bauman, for instance. Instead of running for the hills, folks like Ted jump into the trenches, focusing on the best moves to make. And Ted’s readers in The Bauman Letter have diversification and disaster prep right at their fingertips.

If this ends up getting worse before it gets better, I want you to be ready.

Click here to get ready now!

And if you need some reassurance or a good laugh in the meantime, you can always check Great Stuff out on social media: Facebook and Twitter.

Until next time, good trading!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Editor, Great Stuff

[goldira01]

When the Fed Hits the Fan…

Anyone else feel like they’re stuck in a time loop?

This morning, U.S. futures trading halted after hitting a down-limit loss of 5% … again. Then, immediately after the markets opened for regular trading, stocks plunged 8% to trigger another halt … again.

This fresh round of Wall Street panic selling was brought to you by the Federal Reserve and China … again.

On Sunday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell slashed the U.S. central bank’s key interest rate to essentially 0% and announced $700 billion in quantitative easing. Powell also cut the rate at which the Fed charges banks for short-term emergency loans (i.e., the “discount window”).

The last time that the Fed took such drastic measures was in the middle of the 2008 financial crisis. What’s more, these emergency measures were so critical, they couldn’t wait until the Federal Open Market Committee meeting slated for this week.

Adding fuel to the fire, Chinese economic data arrived this weekend, and it wasn’t pretty.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales plummeted 20.5% year over year in January and February. Industrial output fell 13.5%, and fixed-asset investments plunged almost 25%. All three readings were far below economists’ expectations.

Analysts now project that the Chinese economy will contract 6% in the first quarter — its worst decline since 1976.

The Takeaway:

Nothing says “market confidence” like two interest rate cuts in less than a month.

I’m not saying that the Fed is wrong. I’m just saying it could’ve handled the situation better. For instance, did cutting rates to zero really need to happen two days before the Fed’s policy-setting meeting this week?

But then, maybe this rate cut couldn’t wait.

After all, restaurants and bars across the country are shuttering for all but carryout orders. All major sports are on hold. That will have a significant economic impact — I don’t care who you are.

On an anecdotal note, I had to stop by my local Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) this weekend, as my TV kicked the bucket on Friday. Great timing, right?

Apparently, this Best Buy was almost out of computer monitors and big-screen TVs. With everyone stuck at home, suddenly-remote employees are snapping up computer monitors. Meanwhile, big screens are in vogue for hunkering down on the couch to binge Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) and The Walt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) Disney+.

However, if China’s economic data are anything to go by, this anecdotal bump will be short-lived. If anything, the data show that the U.S. could very well be headed toward a recession.

So, in response to the Fed’s move and the threat of a U.S. recession, Great Stuff recommends a new position today: ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE: SH).

The SH is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that moves inversely to the S&P 500 Index — i.e., when the S&P 500 goes down, SH goes up, and vice versa.

Why do you want to buy SH? Because we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg on the coronavirus’ impact on the U.S. economy. This will get worse as the virus spreads, forcing more retail locations to temporarily close.

The idea here is to hedge your portfolio with SH … to help mitigate the losses on your main holdings.

Combined with our previous suggestions — the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq: TLT), the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF) — this should offer you a solid shelter from the market’s worst losses.

Let’s make it an official Great Stuff pick. Buy ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE: SH).

Now, if all this “recession” talk still sounds too preemptive, well … just listen to what this former Washington insider has to say…

Going: Apple’s China Inversion

When 42 doors open, another 500 close … or something like that.

Last week, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) announced that it would reopen its 42 Chinese retail locations. Great Stuff believed this was a sign that the worst had passed for COVID-19 in China. What we didn’t count on is the closure of Apple’s nearly 500 other stores around the globe.

In a letter from CEO Tim Cook, Apple announced that it will close all retail locations outside of greater China until March 27. In addition to the closures, Apple also said that employees should work remotely if possible.

This is quickly becoming a common theme across the U.S. Apple currently operates about 500 stores worldwide. Sales from these stores, when combined with online and direct sales, made up about 30% of Apple’s total revenue last year.

It seems like it’s back to the coal mine for this canary. We’ll file this as yet another reason to jump into SH today … before more hard data come out on the U.S. retail impact.

Going: COVID-Air

If you’re looking for a sector to avoid like the … well, plague … anything to do with travel is a good place to start.

Case in point: This weekend, American Airlines Group Inc. (Nasdaq: AAL) said that it suspended 75% of its international flights from the U.S. — starting today. The airline said the move was in response to plummeting demand and government travel restrictions surrounding COVID-19.

Due to the virus’ spread, the company had already reduced its capacity — essentially, how many seats it has in the air flying any one route. American now anticipates that domestic capacity will drop 20% year over year in April, with May’s capacity falling 30%.

The company’s announcement follows on the heels of similar cuts by Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: UAL).

So far today, all three major U.S. air carriers are down sharply. UAL is down more than 10%. DAL fell about 5%, and AAL was last off about 3%.

Gone: I’m Not on a Boat

So, I hope you didn’t plan on riding out the COVID-19 pandemic at sea…

In a speech on Friday, President Trump said that major U.S. cruiselines would suspend operations for 30 days to stem the coronavirus’ spread.

Following Trump’s announcement, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) announced it suspended all voyages on its global fleet through April 11.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) will also suspend operations. In an announcement today, the company said that it was impossible to project earnings for the current year, but that it expects to record a loss for fiscal 2020. Carnival also said that it’ll borrow about $3 billion for six months under its existing credit lines.

I think the takeaway here is clear: 2020 will be a really tough year for cruiseline operators.

Today’s Chart of the Week comes courtesy of Reddit user Jerschneid. The chart was posted in the subreddit /r/DataIsBeautiful, and it lends perspective to the severity of the recent market plunge.

The 2020 coronavirus dive is in light blue off to the left. You’ll note that we’ve only seen this kind of speedy retreat twice before: after the Great Depression and 1987’s Black Monday.

That’s not good company to be in. However, just because these market crashes lasted for years doesn’t mean that this one will. I don’t share this chart to make you panic … but merely to put the current decline in perspective.

As always, don’t panic. Take things one day at a time. Breathe. And wash your hands!

Finally, enhance your calm, John Spartan, and try to have a joy-joy day — although with toilet paper in short supply, you’ll have to eventually figure out the three seashells.

Great Stuff: Don’t YOLO This Market Decline!

I realize that today’s market is a bit like watching a traumatizing blooper reel. (And for any masochist options traders out there sitting on SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) puts, this is a feeding frenzy … and my, we’re just getting started!)

The fact is, the wounds of crashes past are more than paper losses — they cut deep, emotional routs that are hard to come back from. I get it. Thousands of investors walked away from 2008 with no desire to invest again.

But whether the worst is behind us or still ahead … you don’t have to go through this alone.

The experts here at Banyan Hill have weathered many a market storm — including several of the crashes in today’s Chart of the Week.

Take Ted Bauman, for instance. Instead of running for the hills, folks like Ted jump into the trenches, focusing on the best moves to make. And Ted’s readers in The Bauman Letter have diversification and disaster prep right at their fingertips.

If this ends up getting worse before it gets better, I want you to be ready.

Click here to get ready now!

And if you need some reassurance or a good laugh in the meantime, you can always check Great Stuff out on social media: Facebook and Twitter.

Until next time, good trading!

Regards,

Joseph Hargett

Editor, Great Stuff

[maritimemanual]

COSCO Shipping Ports Partners With Abu Dhabi Ports To Create Regional Trading Hub

COSCO SHIPPING Ports (”COSCO SHIPPING Ports” or “CSP”, HKEX stock code: 1199) and Abu Dhabi Ports inaugurated CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal at Khalifa Port; positioning Abu Dhabi as the regional hub for COSCO’s global network of 36 ports and further connecting the Emirate to the major trade hubs along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The deepwater, semi-automated container terminal includes the largest Container Freight Station (CFS) in the Middle East, covering 275,000 square metres. The state-of-the-art facility offers facilities for full and partial bonded container shipments, the full range of container packing services, short-term warehousing for de-consolidated cargo as well as easy connectivity with container terminals in Khalifa Port. The terminal is also the first international greenfield subsidiary of COSCO SHIPPING Ports, a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping, the largest integrated shipping enterprise in the world. CSP has so far invested AED1.1 billion in capital expenditure on construction and machinery at the terminal.

The partnership with COSCO SHIPPING Ports is part of a five-year strategy by Abu Dhabi Ports aimed at strengthening the maritime sector in Abu Dhabi and driving economic diversification, in line with Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030, by increasing regional trade and attracting foreign direct investment. Abu Dhabi Ports has earmarked AED10 billion in investment that will increase capacity at Khalifa Port from the current 5 million TEU to 9.1 million TEU, which also includes boosting capacity at Terminal 1 to more than 5 million TEU.

The CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal has a design capacity of 2.5 million TEU and will begin with a handling capacity of 1.5 million TEU, with 1200 metres of quay. The water depth of the terminal is 16.5 metres, allowing it to accommodate mega-vessels typically carrying in excess of 20,000 TEU.

The terminal was formally inaugurated at a ceremony at Khalifa Port by His Highness Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Chairman of Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Court, and was also attended by His Highness Sheikh Theyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Chairman of the Department of Transport; His Excellency Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (“NDRC”); His Excellency Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE Minister of State and Chairman of Abu Dhabi Ports; His Excellency He Jianzhong, Deputy Minister of Ministry of Transport of the PRC; His Excellency Ni Jian, Ambassador of the PRC in the UAE; Captain Xu Lirong, Chairman of China COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited (“COSCO Shipping”); Captain Mohamed Juma Al Shamisi, CEO of Abu Dhabi Ports; Mr. Zhang Wei, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of COSCO SHIPPING Ports; in addition to high profile VIPs.

At the inauguration, His Highness Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan commented: “The UAE, under the leadership of His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE President, continues to develop advanced infrastructure across social and economic sectors.” He added that the vision of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE’s Armed Forces, has always focused on developing strategic partnerships with the international community to ensure sustainable development. He highlighted that the CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal is among key projects that will have a positive impact across a number of sectors, including industry, trade, services, and logistics.

His Highness Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan also emphasised the cordial and productive relations that have developed between the UAE and China over the past 34 years. “China and the UAE share a strong and long-standing bond across a variety of ties, including economic, cultural, and trade and investment, and a common vision of a stable and prosperous future for our peoples and the world. We look forward to nurturing our partnership in a spirit of friendly cooperation.”

His Highness Sheikh Theyab bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Chairman of the Department of Transport, said: “The decision by COSCO SHIPPING Ports to invest in Abu Dhabi is a testament to our strategic location, attractive business environment and supportive regulation. We believe that it will open the door to more foreign direct investment in the Emirate.”

His Excellency Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of NDRC, expressed his view that, “The inauguration ceremony is not only a milestone in the cooperation of China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’, but also a good start for China and UAE’s pragmatic cooperation in other key areas. The two countries’ strong determination for cooperation laid a solid foundation for development and deepening of mutual relations, and thus provided promising prospects for cooperation in the future. Under the strategic leadership, China and UAE will continue to cooperate in more flagship projects and jointly contribute to “Belt and Road Initiative”.”

His Excellency He Jianzhong, Deputy Ministry of Ministry of Transport of the PRC, said, “CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal is the latest major achievement from China and UAE’s joint efforts to implement ‘the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ in ports and shipping industry. CSP and Abu Dhabi Ports will continue to cooperate and increase capacity of Abu Dhabi Khalifa Port to make it a container gateway port and an important hub port in the Middle East in the near future, with an aim to better serve trade and economic development, as well as local community and people.”

His Excellency Dr Sultan Al Jaber, the UAE Minister of State and Chairman of Abu Dhabi Ports, said: “This inauguration is yet another example of the long history of economic cooperation between China and the UAE. The expansion of Khalifa Port in partnership with CSP will further enhance the UAE’s role as an important trading link between East and West, promote our country’s economic diversification and contribute to the global connectivity of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

“I am proud that this accomplishment has been achieved during the Year of Zayed, as it was through the vision and leadership of the UAE’s Founding Father, the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, that the foundations were laid for the strong bond we share with China today. Almost three decades later, the UAE’s relationship with China continues to flourish, growing deeper and stronger in line with China’s increasing importance as a global economic powerhouse.”

Captain Xu Lirong, Chairman of COSCO Shipping, said: “The completion of CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal is just another milestone in the successful partnership between China and Abu Dhabi, and it will prove to be a fruitful cooperation between the two countries. Port business is one of the important parts of COSCO; we will support the development of the terminal to the fullest extent of our capability by developing shipping routes and transshipment network to drive the volume growth of CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal. The terminal is set to be a pivot for us to develop a global maritime hub for international transshipment and logistics.”

Mr. Zhang Wei, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of CSP, said: “We are launching this semi-automatic terminal to serve vessels of all sizes and to help ensure a promising future for this region. CSP Abu Dhabi terminal will be equipped with value-added services such as feeder service network and easy connectivity with container terminals in Khalifa Port. It’s our broader strategy to develop Abu Dhabi as a regional logistics and trade hub and link it with industrial free zones to expand and diversify the economy. Backed by our parent company, we will harness our unparalleled strengths to turn Abu Dhabi into a regional hub and a competitive shipping service center.”

Captain Mohamed Juma Al Shamisi, CEO of Abu Dhabi Ports, said: “CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal connects Khalifa Port to COSCO’s global network, making it not only one of the largest ports across the Middle East and Indian subcontinent, but a global maritime hub.

“Abu Dhabi’s strategic location as a gateway to the MENA region makes it an important partner for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, connecting Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks along six corridors.”

China is the UAE’s largest non-oil trade partner. In 2017, bilateral trade between the two countries increased by 15 per cent to more than US$53 billion, representing 14.7 per cent of the UAE’s total foreign trade. During the same period the UAE accounted for nearly 30 per cent of total Chinese exports to Arab countries and about 22 per cent of total Arab-China trade. Bilateral trade is expected to increase to US$70 billion a year by 2020.

The new terminal will ease the way for companies seeking to establish, expand or enhance their trade by using local manufacturing, warehousing or logistics operations within Abu Dhabi and, through them, service regional, Middle Eastern, African and international markets.

In addition to attracting investors from Eastern Asia, it will increase Khalifa Port’s competitiveness and act as a catalyst for investment by foreign companies to set up in the free zone of Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD), the region’s largest industrial, manufacturing and logistics hub and free zone. KIZAD, which comprises 410 square kilometres, has to date attracted more than 200 tenants and AED65 billion (US$17.7 billion) in investment. So far, a total of 19 Chinese companies have signed lease agreements for land in the demonstration zone established within the Khalifa Port Free Trade Zone in August 2017 by the Chinese Jiangsu Provincial Overseas Cooperation and Investment Company (JOCIC).

CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal is the result of the 35-year agreement between Abu Dhabi Ports and COSCO SHIPPING Ports whose terminal portfolio covers the five main port regions in Mainland China, Southeast Asia, Europe, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The new terminal is part of Abu Dhabi Ports’ five-year growth strategy to increase Khalifa Port, with its two container terminals, to a combined total capacity of 9.1 million TEUs. The addition of CSP Abu Dhabi Terminal has already moved Khalifa Port up from being the 89th largest container port in world rankings to within the top 25.

Press Releases: adports.ae

Photo Courtesy: adports.ae

The post COSCO Shipping Ports Partners With Abu Dhabi Ports To Create Regional Trading Hub appeared first on Maritime Manual.

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U.S. Department of State News: The Importance of Diversity in European Energy Security

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U.S. Department of State News: The Importance of Diversity in European Energy Security

WASHINGTON – U.S. Depart of State today released the following statement:

This week’s World Gas Conference in Washington, DC, reinforced the fundamental importance of countries and regions employing a diverse matrix of fuels, source countries and delivery routes to enhance their energy security.  Over the last week, U.S. officials underscored the strong U.S. opposition to Russian-led pipelines like Nord Stream 2 and the second line of TurkStream that would exacerbate Europe’s dependence on Russian-sourced energy.  By contrast, the United States commends the historic progress being made on the Southern Gas Corridor in Azerbaijan and Turkey, which could bring Caspian gas from Azerbaijan to countries across Europe by 2020.  We also welcome Poland’s announcement earlier this week at the Conference on signing 20-year agreements to import U.S. liquefied natural gas starting in 2022.

In addition to these exciting developments, the United States reaffirms its support for energy projects that enhance energy diversification and energy security for our allies and partners worldwide.  We see great promise in the floating storage and regasification unit at Krk Island in Croatia and urge all stakeholders to work together to make it a success. In addition, Black Sea gas from Romania represents a promising yet untapped source of energy that would strengthen energy markets and energy security throughout the region.  We are closely watching developments as Romania’s parliament and government work out the legislation that will establish the stable fiscal and regulatory framework required for energy companies to invest in the development of this resource. Diverse sources and delivery routes ensure that energy is available at the best price to all and that no supplier can use energy to economically or politically coerce consumers.

[chiefcupcakeavenue-blog]

Reading

Requiem of a species by Clive Hamilton

A Very Short Introduction to Climate Change by Mark Maslin

An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power by Al Gore

Anthropocene: the geological era when human activity is the main influence on the environment

Large scale, dangerous climate change is unavoidable

The climate system is passing significant tipping points beyond which the warming process is reinforced by positive feedback mechanisms that counteract the effects of reductions and make stabilisation of global temperature unlikely.

These mechanisms include the Earth's diminished natural capacity to decarbonise and the activation of new, natural sources of emissions. These mechanisms make it unrealistic for overshoot strategies to expect an equivalent fall in global temperature when they eventually accomplish their goals.

Historically, the Earth experiences dramatic transitions between predominant climates. Hence, the resulting black swans from warming are not slow or predictable enough for us to adapt to behaviorally or technologically without significant casualties, especially for the poor.

Therefore, the assumptions held in international negotiations and national strategies are not accurate to how our climate systems behave.

The effects of greater energy efficiency in the west is offset by rapidly expanding economies of LDCs, which continue to use coal as the predominant energy source.

Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions for another decade eliminates the possibility of atmospheric composition recovering before catastrophe. Emissions must peak and start rapidly declining within this time before climate inertia

An optimistic projection of emissions, assuming the peaking of deforestation, halving of emissions from food production, and global emissions peaking in 2020 and falling by 3% per annum and excluding possible aggravating factors such as aviation and shipping, predicts a 4 degree rise in global temperature.

The economic costs of rapid emission cuts in DCs are mild. Moreover, the average income in DCs is above the threshold for the possible GDP growth to make significant improvement to national welfare. The unreasonable fixation on growth by voters as a symbol of future prosperity even as they face imminent environmental destruction inhibits resolute action. Even governments who recognise the dangers will sacrifice legitimacy if it acted according to the science.

A warmer atmosphere is able to hold more water vapour. This may cause significant increases in precipitation in Northern Europe and Asia.

Dry spells and heat waves may occur more frequently in SEA and Australia.

Sea level change is measured using a land-based benchmark or satellite. However, sediment buildup and plate movement can lead to vertical shifts in the land surface, while satellite data is too recent to reliably establish a significant change over the past few decades.

Key insect species such as bees that need warm weather to survive are moving north.

The el Nino event can temporarily increase global surface temperatures significantly.

There has been no significant change in the sun's long term output, while sunspots have little effect on surface temperature. Hence, global warming cannot be blamed on changes in the natural solar cycle

Spatial resolution is the size of the grid cells in climate models, while temporal resolution is the time between each measurement

The greatest uncertainty in climate modelling is the prediction of future GHG emissions. Comparison of climate data over the years is also difficult as different models are used.

Even as we gain greater understanding of climate and larger computing power, there is still great uncertainty inherent in complex models.

When results from low resolution models are used in high resolution models (down-scaling), the uncertainty is compounded, leading to highly variable, possibly contradictory results which will hinder informed policymaking

Aerosols have cooling effects on the surface by absorbing solar radiation. They also provide points for water vapor to nucleate, forming more clouds. Clouds and ice crystals reflect solar radiation back into space via the albedo effect.

The tropopause is the lowest layer of the Earth's atmosphere where weather occurs.

Radiative forcing is the difference between the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth's surface and those reflected into space.

Man must not only greatly reduce GHG emissions by 2100, but also find a way to actively take them out of the atmosphere.

The contribution of anthropogenic climate change to extreme weather events is measured by running regional climate simulations thousands of times with and without anthropogenic GHGs

The number of people whose welfare is greatly affected by CC increase radically when surface temperatures increase beyond 2C. Water shortage and mosquio-borne diseases experience the biggest spikes. Temperatures have already risen by 0.8C. Due to climate inertia, surface temperatures will increase a further 0.7C by 2035, even without further increases in GHG enissions. Incidentally, SG is also one of the most vulnerable to coastal flooding, water/food shortage, and vector-borne diseases.

Humanity's survival depends on our ability to predict regional climate and build resilient infrastructure.

Natural gas comprises nearly all of SG's fossil fuel mix. It has also put in efforts towards food supply diversification, monitoring of vector-borne disease, review of present infrastructure, preserving biodiversity by increasing ecological connectivity, improving drainage systems, and planting trees resistant to heavy wind and rain.

The elderly are most vulnerable to heat waves, since they are unable to regulate body temperature while asleep.

Solutions

Man has shown that they can survive and prosper in a wide range of living environments such as deserts, tundras and mountain ranges by adapting their tools and behavior. As climate change progresses, people in more forgiving environments and more prosperous countries can do the same with the great resources available, if and only if we are given sufficient time.

Given the probability of sudden changes in climate systems due to environmental positive feedback mechanisms, the time we have depends greatly on effective mitigation

In the next few decades, this can be driven mainly by increasing the efficiency of energy use/production and proliferating carbon capture/storage tech.

Solving the problem of climate change is multidisciplinary. It requires fundamental changes to our economics, politics, and society.

[drusillasoria2-blog]

The History Of Georgian Construction.

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The Black Sea and Eastern Europe: Navigating Geopolitical Tensions for Economic Growth by Eastern European Institute for Trade

by Eastern European Institute for Trade

Straddling a complex nexus of historical and contemporary geopolitical forces, the Eastern European region and the Black Sea have emerged as pivotal players in international trade dynamics. This intricate web of political, economic, and social factors necessitates a nuanced understanding of the region's potential for fostering economic growth, despite the underlying tensions. Drawing upon insights from various scholarly sources, this article will elucidate the region's unique position in the global landscape (Smith, 2019; Petrov, 2020).

One pivotal aspect of Eastern Europe's economic potential is its strategic location, as it serves as a bridge between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East (Johnson, 2018). This geographic advantage positions the region as a vital corridor for the transportation of goods, energy resources, and people. Consequently, the Black Sea has become a critical maritime hub, playing an essential role in shaping regional trade dynamics (Kuznetsov, 2021).

As economic activity has burgeoned in recent years, countries in the region have sought to capitalize on their strategic positioning. Nations such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia have all pursued ambitious infrastructure projects to bolster their respective economies, enhancing connectivity with other European countries and beyond (Petrov, 2020). While these efforts have engendered considerable growth, they have also given rise to geopolitical tensions, with external powers vying for influence in the region.

A prominent example of these frictions is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has generated a ripple effect throughout the region (Smith, 2019). The struggle for control over Crimea has not only heightened political tensions but has also disrupted trade flows in the Black Sea, posing challenges to regional economic growth (Johnson, 2018). Moreover, the geopolitical complexities extend beyond the immediate vicinity, with major powers such as the United States and China increasingly asserting their presence in the area (Kuznetsov, 2021).

To navigate these tensions and ensure sustained economic growth, countries in the region must adopt a multifaceted approach. This would entail engaging in diplomatic efforts aimed at fostering regional cooperation and trust, while also pursuing economic diversification strategies to reduce dependence on volatile industries (Smith, 2019; Petrov, 2020). By forging collaborative partnerships and cultivating domestic innovation, Eastern European nations can potentially surmount the challenges posed by geopolitical rivalries and unlock their full economic potential (Johnson, 2018; Kuznetsov, 2021).

In conclusion, Eastern Europe and the Black Sea represent a region replete with opportunities and risks, shaped by a diverse array of geopolitical forces. By acknowledging these complexities and adopting innovative strategies, countries in the area can harness their unique attributes to drive economic growth, despite the ever-present undercurrent of geopolitical tensions.

References:

Johnson, R. (2018). The Black Sea: A Geopolitical and Economic Analysis. International Affairs Review, 26(2), 45-60.

Kuznetsov, A. (2021). The role of the Black Sea region in global trade and geopolitics. Geopolitics, 26(1), 163-184.

Petrov, V. (2020). Eastern Europe's economic development and regional cooperation in the 21st century. Journal of Economic Integration, 35(3), 567-586.

Smith, J. (2019). Navigating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe: Implications for economic growth. Eastern European Politics, 5(4), 369-387.

Read more at the Eastern European Institute for Trade.