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Chipmaker Broadcom inks $19 billion deal to buy software company CA
(Reuters) – Broadcom Inc announced a $18.9 billion deal to buy U.S. business software company CA Inc on Wednesday, venturing far beyond its realm of semiconductors and testing investors’ confidence in its Chief Executive Hock Tan’s dealmaking credentials.
FILE PHOTO: Broadcom Limited company logo is pictured on an office building in Rancho Bernardo, California May 12, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
The CA deal, outlined in a joint statement from the companies, comes just four months after U.S. President Donald Trump blocked Broadcom’s $117 billion hostile bid for semiconductor peer Qualcomm Inc, arguing it posed a threat to U.S. national security and gave an edge to Chinese companies looking to build next-generation wireless networks.
Since then, Broadcom has redomiciled from Singapore to the United States, placing it formally outside the purview of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the government panel that reviews deals for potential national security risks.
Dealmaking has been key to Broadcom’s expansion, as it grew from a 4 percent share of the chip market in 2013 to a 30 percent share this year, thanks to acquisitions spearheaded by Tan with backing from private equity firm Silver Lake.
Tan’s selection of CA as Broadcom’s next acquisition target, however, took Wall Street by surprise, and drove Broadcom shares down 7 percent in after-hours trading. Investors and analysts scrambled to identify potential synergies, as the deal looked more like a financial investment rather than a combination of complementary businesses.
“Investors will wrestle and try to gain comfort in (the) strategic rationale and its impact to capital allocation,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note to clients, adding that “lots of explanation (is) needed.”
Broadcom’s chips power smartphones, computers and networking equipment. CA, on the other hand, specializes in software for so-called mainframes, big servers that companies are gradually replacing with cloud computing, and has been seeking to expand in business software.
The disparate corners of the technology market the two companies occupy mean that Broadcom will benefit primarily from CA’s recurring revenue, rather than operational synergies.
Broadcom Chief Financial Officer Tom Krause defended the deal’s rationale in an interview, pointing to experience the company already has beyond chips, in selling networking gear to big businesses operating data centers.
Last year, Broadcom acquired networking gear company Brocade Communications Systems for $5.5 billion. Brocade’s networking gear often connects to mainframes provided by International Business Machines Corp, and those are the same mainframes that much of CA’s software caters to, Krause said.
“What we do is buy mission-critical technology businesses,” Krause said. “CA is a mission-critical technology. … We’ve been pretty impressed not only with (CA’s) management, but also the team that CA has built around these core franchises that we value.”
Analyst Kinngai Chan of Summit Insights Group said it was unclear how Tan would apply his typical integration model to CA, which has been working to shift to the subscription billing financial model that has become common in that industry.
“We believe this planned acquisition definitely will create some uneasiness amongst its current investor base,” Chan said of Broadcom.
NEW DEBT
Broadcom will pay $44.50 per share in cash for CA, a 20 percent premium to Wednesday’s closing price. It will finance the deal with cash on hand and $18 billion in new debt financing. Previously, as of May 6, Broadcom’s debt stood at $17.5 billion.
CA’s largest shareholders, Careal Property Group AG and affiliates, which own 25 percent of the outstanding shares of CA, have agreed to vote for the deal, according to the announcement.
Broadcom’s main semiconductor business is becoming more competitive as major customers such as Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd look to consolidate supplier relationships and slash costs. This led to Broadcom pursuing Qualcomm, despite the latter spurning its advances.
In March, Trump signed an order to halt what would have been the biggest-ever technology deal between Broadcom and Qualcomm on concerns it would erode the United States’ lead in mobile technology and pave the way for China to gain the upper hand.
Krause said Broadcom has “a very clear roadmap” to closing the CA deal by the fourth quarter. “We’re an American company,” he said, when asked about CFIUS having a role in the deal.
CA CEO Mike Gregoire has been looking for a deal for some time. Talks last year to merge with private equity-owned peer BMC Software fell through.
Bank of America and Deutsche Bank advised Broadcom, and Qatalyst Partners advised CA.
Reporting by Greg Roumeliotis in New York, Stephen Nellis in San Francisco and Arjun Panchadar in Bangalore; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Cynthia Osterman
The post Chipmaker Broadcom inks $19 billion deal to buy software company CA appeared first on World The News.
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Chipmaker Broadcom inks $19 billion deal to buy software company CA
(Reuters) – Broadcom Inc announced a $18.9 billion deal to buy U.S. business software company CA Inc on Wednesday, venturing far beyond its realm of semiconductors and testing investors’ confidence in its Chief Executive Hock Tan’s dealmaking credentials.
FILE PHOTO: Broadcom Limited company logo is pictured on an office building in Rancho Bernardo, California May 12, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
The CA deal, outlined in a joint statement from the companies, comes just four months after U.S. President Donald Trump blocked Broadcom’s $117 billion hostile bid for semiconductor peer Qualcomm Inc, arguing it posed a threat to U.S. national security and gave an edge to Chinese companies looking to build next-generation wireless networks.
Since then, Broadcom has redomiciled from Singapore to the United States, placing it formally outside the purview of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the government panel that reviews deals for potential national security risks.
Dealmaking has been key to Broadcom’s expansion, as it grew from a 4 percent share of the chip market in 2013 to a 30 percent share this year, thanks to acquisitions spearheaded by Tan with backing from private equity firm Silver Lake.
Tan’s selection of CA as Broadcom’s next acquisition target, however, took Wall Street by surprise, and drove Broadcom shares down 7 percent in after-hours trading. Investors and analysts scrambled to identify potential synergies, as the deal looked more like a financial investment rather than a combination of complementary businesses.
“Investors will wrestle and try to gain comfort in (the) strategic rationale and its impact to capital allocation,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note to clients, adding that “lots of explanation (is) needed.”
Broadcom’s chips power smartphones, computers and networking equipment. CA, on the other hand, specializes in software for so-called mainframes, big servers that companies are gradually replacing with cloud computing, and has been seeking to expand in business software.
The disparate corners of the technology market the two companies occupy mean that Broadcom will benefit primarily from CA’s recurring revenue, rather than operational synergies.
Broadcom Chief Financial Officer Tom Krause defended the deal’s rationale in an interview, pointing to experience the company already has beyond chips, in selling networking gear to big businesses operating data centers.
Last year, Broadcom acquired networking gear company Brocade Communications Systems for $5.5 billion. Brocade’s networking gear often connects to mainframes provided by International Business Machines Corp, and those are the same mainframes that much of CA’s software caters to, Krause said.
“What we do is buy mission-critical technology businesses,” Krause said. “CA is a mission-critical technology. … We’ve been pretty impressed not only with (CA’s) management, but also the team that CA has built around these core franchises that we value.”
Analyst Kinngai Chan of Summit Insights Group said it was unclear how Tan would apply his typical integration model to CA, which has been working to shift to the subscription billing financial model that has become common in that industry.
“We believe this planned acquisition definitely will create some uneasiness amongst its current investor base,” Chan said of Broadcom.
NEW DEBT
Broadcom will pay $44.50 per share in cash for CA, a 20 percent premium to Wednesday’s closing price. It will finance the deal with cash on hand and $18 billion in new debt financing. Previously, as of May 6, Broadcom’s debt stood at $17.5 billion.
CA’s largest shareholders, Careal Property Group AG and affiliates, which own 25 percent of the outstanding shares of CA, have agreed to vote for the deal, according to the announcement.
Broadcom’s main semiconductor business is becoming more competitive as major customers such as Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd look to consolidate supplier relationships and slash costs. This led to Broadcom pursuing Qualcomm, despite the latter spurning its advances.
In March, Trump signed an order to halt what would have been the biggest-ever technology deal between Broadcom and Qualcomm on concerns it would erode the United States’ lead in mobile technology and pave the way for China to gain the upper hand.
Krause said Broadcom has “a very clear roadmap” to closing the CA deal by the fourth quarter. “We’re an American company,” he said, when asked about CFIUS having a role in the deal.
CA CEO Mike Gregoire has been looking for a deal for some time. Talks last year to merge with private equity-owned peer BMC Software fell through.
Bank of America and Deutsche Bank advised Broadcom, and Qatalyst Partners advised CA.
Reporting by Greg Roumeliotis in New York, Stephen Nellis in San Francisco and Arjun Panchadar in Bangalore; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Cynthia Osterman
The post Chipmaker Broadcom inks $19 billion deal to buy software company CA appeared first on World The News.
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Chipmaker Broadcom inks $19 billion deal to buy software company CA
(Reuters) – Broadcom Inc announced a $18.9 billion deal to buy U.S. business software company CA Inc on Wednesday, venturing far beyond its realm of semiconductors and testing investors’ confidence in its Chief Executive Hock Tan’s dealmaking credentials.
FILE PHOTO: Broadcom Limited company logo is pictured on an office building in Rancho Bernardo, California May 12, 2016. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
The CA deal, outlined in a joint statement from the companies, comes just four months after U.S. President Donald Trump blocked Broadcom’s $117 billion hostile bid for semiconductor peer Qualcomm Inc, arguing it posed a threat to U.S. national security and gave an edge to Chinese companies looking to build next-generation wireless networks.
Since then, Broadcom has redomiciled from Singapore to the United States, placing it formally outside the purview of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the government panel that reviews deals for potential national security risks.
Dealmaking has been key to Broadcom’s expansion, as it grew from a 4 percent share of the chip market in 2013 to a 30 percent share this year, thanks to acquisitions spearheaded by Tan with backing from private equity firm Silver Lake.
Tan’s selection of CA as Broadcom’s next acquisition target, however, took Wall Street by surprise, and drove Broadcom shares down 7 percent in after-hours trading. Investors and analysts scrambled to identify potential synergies, as the deal looked more like a financial investment rather than a combination of complementary businesses.
“Investors will wrestle and try to gain comfort in (the) strategic rationale and its impact to capital allocation,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note to clients, adding that “lots of explanation (is) needed.”
Broadcom’s chips power smartphones, computers and networking equipment. CA, on the other hand, specializes in software for so-called mainframes, big servers that companies are gradually replacing with cloud computing, and has been seeking to expand in business software.
The disparate corners of the technology market the two companies occupy mean that Broadcom will benefit primarily from CA’s recurring revenue, rather than operational synergies.
Broadcom Chief Financial Officer Tom Krause defended the deal’s rationale in an interview, pointing to experience the company already has beyond chips, in selling networking gear to big businesses operating data centers.
Last year, Broadcom acquired networking gear company Brocade Communications Systems for $5.5 billion. Brocade’s networking gear often connects to mainframes provided by International Business Machines Corp, and those are the same mainframes that much of CA’s software caters to, Krause said.
“What we do is buy mission-critical technology businesses,” Krause said. “CA is a mission-critical technology. … We’ve been pretty impressed not only with (CA’s) management, but also the team that CA has built around these core franchises that we value.”
Analyst Kinngai Chan of Summit Insights Group said it was unclear how Tan would apply his typical integration model to CA, which has been working to shift to the subscription billing financial model that has become common in that industry.
“We believe this planned acquisition definitely will create some uneasiness amongst its current investor base,” Chan said of Broadcom.
NEW DEBT
Broadcom will pay $44.50 per share in cash for CA, a 20 percent premium to Wednesday’s closing price. It will finance the deal with cash on hand and $18 billion in new debt financing. Previously, as of May 6, Broadcom’s debt stood at $17.5 billion.
CA’s largest shareholders, Careal Property Group AG and affiliates, which own 25 percent of the outstanding shares of CA, have agreed to vote for the deal, according to the announcement.
Broadcom’s main semiconductor business is becoming more competitive as major customers such as Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd look to consolidate supplier relationships and slash costs. This led to Broadcom pursuing Qualcomm, despite the latter spurning its advances.
In March, Trump signed an order to halt what would have been the biggest-ever technology deal between Broadcom and Qualcomm on concerns it would erode the United States’ lead in mobile technology and pave the way for China to gain the upper hand.
Krause said Broadcom has “a very clear roadmap” to closing the CA deal by the fourth quarter. “We’re an American company,” he said, when asked about CFIUS having a role in the deal.
CA CEO Mike Gregoire has been looking for a deal for some time. Talks last year to merge with private equity-owned peer BMC Software fell through.
Bank of America and Deutsche Bank advised Broadcom, and Qatalyst Partners advised CA.
Reporting by Greg Roumeliotis in New York, Stephen Nellis in San Francisco and Arjun Panchadar in Bangalore; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Cynthia Osterman
The post Chipmaker Broadcom inks $19 billion deal to buy software company CA appeared first on World The News.
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Trump Damaged Democracy, Silicon Valley Will Finish It Off
When Democrats made their post-election populist “Better Deal” pitch, they took a strong stance against pharmaceutical and financial monopolies. But they conspicuously left out the most profound antitrust challenge of our time—the tech oligarchy.
The information sector, notes The Economist, is now the most consolidated sector of the American economy.
The Silicon Valley and its Puget Sound annex dominated by Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft increasingly resemble the pre-gas crisis Detroit of the Big Three. Tech’s Big Five all enjoy overwhelming market shares—for example Google controls upwards of 80 percent of global search—and the capital to either acquire or crush any newcomers. They are bringing us a hardly gilded age of prosperity but depressed competition, economic stagnation, and, increasingly, a chilling desire to control the national conversation.
Jeff Bezos harrumphs through his chosen megaphone, The Washington Post, about how “democracy dies in the dark.” But if Bezos—the world’s third richest man, who used the Post first to undermine Bernie Sanders and then to wage ceaseless war on the admittedly heinous Donald Trump—really wants to identify the biggest long-term threat to individual and community autonomy, he should turn on the lights and look in the mirror.
Trump’s election and volatile presidency may pose a more immediate menace, but when he is gone, or neutered by lack of support, the oligarchs’ damage to our democracy and culture will continue to metastasize.
Killing the Old Silicon Valley
Americans justifiably take pride in the creative and entrepreneurial genius of Silicon Valley. The tech sector has been, along with culture, agriculture, and energy, one of our most competitive industries, one defined by risk-taking and intense competition between firms in the Valley, and elsewhere.
This old model is fading. All but shielded from antitrust laws, the new Silicon Valley is losing its entrepreneurial yeastiness—which, ironically enough, was in part spawned by government efforts against old-line monopolists such as ATT and IBM. While the industry still promotes the myth of the stalwart tinkerers in their garages seeking to build the next great company, the model now is to get funding so that their company can be acquired by Facebook or one of the other titans. As one recent paper demonstrates, these “super platforms” depress competition, squeeze suppliers and reduce opportunities for potential rivals, much as the monopolists of the late 19th century did (PDF). The rush toward artificial intelligence, requiring vast reservoirs of both money and talent, may accelerate this consolidation. A few firms may join the oligarchy over time, such as Tesla or Uber, but these are all controlled by the same investors on the current Big Five.
This new hierarchy is narrowing the path to riches, or even the middle class. Rather than expand opportunity, the Valley increasingly creates jobs in the “gig economy” that promises not a way to the middle class, much less riches, but into the rising precariat—part-time, conditional workers. This emerging “gig economy” will likely expand with the digitization of retail, which could cost millions of working-class jobs.
For most Americans, the once promising “New Economy,” has meant a descent, as MIT's Peter Temin recently put it, toward a precarious position usually associated with developing nations. Workers in the “gig economy,” unlike the old middle- and working-class, have little chance, for example, of buying a house—once a sure sign of upward mobility, something that is depressingly evident in the Bay Area, along the California coast, and parts of the Northeast.
Certainly the chances of striking out on one’s own have diminished. Sergei Brin, Google’s co-founder, recently suggested that startups would be better off moving from Silicon Valley to areas that are less expensive and highly regulated, and where the competition for talent is not dominated by a few behemoths who can gobble up potential competitors—Instagram, WhatsApp, Skype, LinkedIn, Oculus—or slowly crush them, as may be happening to Snap, a firm that followed the old model and refused to be swallowed by Facebook but went through with its own public offering. Now the Los Angeles-based company is under assault by the social media giant which is using technologies at its Instagram unit, itself an acquisition, that duplicate Snap’s trademark technologies and features.
Snap’s problems are not an isolated case. The result is that the number of high-tech startups is down by almost half from just two years ago; overall National Venture Capital Association reports that the number of deals is now at the lowest level since 2010. Outsiders, the supposed lifeblood of entrepreneurial development, are increasingly irrelevant in an increasingly closed system.
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The New Hierarchy
For all its talk about “disruption,” Silicon Valley is increasingly about three things: money, hierarchy, and conformity. Tech entrepreneurs long have enjoyed financial success, but their dominance in the ranks of the ultra-rich has never been so profound. They now account for three of world’s five richest people—Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg—and dominate the list of billionaires under 40.
Unlike their often ruthless and unpleasant 20th century moguls, the Silicon Valley elite has done relatively little for the country’s lagging productivity or to create broad-based opportunity. The information sector has overall been a poor source of new jobs—roughly 70,000 since 2010—with the gains concentrated in just a few places. This as the number of generally more middle-class jobs tied to producing equipment has fallen by half since 1990 and most new employment opportunities have been in low-wage sectors like hospitality, medical care, and food preparation.
The rich, that is, have gotten richer, in part by taking pains to minimize their tax exposure. Now they are talking grandly about having the government provide all the now “excess” humans with a guaranteed minimum income. The titans who have shared or spread so little of their own wealth are increasingly united in the idea that the government—i.e., middle-class taxpayers—should spread more around.
Not at all coincidentally, the Bay Area itself—once a fertile place of grassroots and middle-class opportunity—now boasts an increasingly bifurcated economy. San Francisco, the Valley’s northern annex, regularly clocks in as among the most unequal cities in the country, with both extraordinary wealth and a vast homeless population.
The more suburban Silicon Valley now suffers a poverty rate of near 20 percent, above the national average. It also has its own large homeless population living in what KQED has described as “modern nomadic villages.” In recent years income gains in the region have flowed overwhelmingly to the top quintile of income-earners, who have seen their wages increase by over 25 percent since 1989, while income levels have declined for low-income households.
Despite endless prattling about diversity, African Americans and Hispanics who make up roughly one-third of the valley’s population, have barely 5 percent of jobs in the top Silicon Valley firms. Between 2009 and 2011, earnings dropped 18 percent for blacks in the Valley and by 5 percent for Latinos, according to a 2013 Joint Venture Silicon Valley report (PDF).
Similarly the share of women in the tech industry is barely half of their 47 percent share in the total workforce, and their ranks may even be shrinking. Stanford researcher Vivek Wadhwa describes the Valley still as “a boys’ club that regarded women as less capable than men and subjected them to negative stereotypes and abuse.”
While the industry hasn’t done much to actually employ women or minorities, it’s both self-righteously and opportunistically fed the outrage industry by booting right-wing voices from various platforms and pushing out people like former Google staffer James Damore, and before that Mozilla founder Brendan Eich after he made a small contribution to a 2014 measure banning gay marriage. Skepticism, once the benchmark of technology development, is now increasingly unwelcome in much of the Valley.
This marks a distinct change from the ’80s and ’90s, when the tech companies—then still involved in the manufacturing of physical products in the United States—tended toward libertarian political views. As late as the 1980s, moderate Republicans frequently won elections in places like San Mateo and Santa Clara. Now the area has evolved into one of the most one-sidedly progressive bastions in the nation. Over 70 percent of Bay Area residents are Democrats up from 55 percent in the 1970s. Today, the Calexit backers, many based in the Valley, even think that the country is too dunderheaded, and suggest they represent “different,” and morally superior, values than the rest of the country.
The Danger to Democracy
If these were policies adopted by an ice-cream chain, or a machine-tool maker, they might be annoying. But in the tech giants, with their vast and growing power to shape opinion, represent an existential threat. Mark Zuckerberg whose Facebook is now the largest source of media for younger people, has emerged, in the words of one European journalist (PDF), as “‘the world’s most powerful editor.” In the past they were the primary carriers of “fake news,” and have done as much as any institution to erode the old values (and economics) of journalism.
Both Facebook and Google now offer news “curated” by algorithms. Bans are increasingly used by Facebook and Twitter to keep out unpopular or incendiary views, and especially in the echo chamber of the Bay Area. This is sometimes directed at conservatives, such as Prager University, whose content may be offensive to some, but hardly subversive or “fake.” The real crime now is simply to question dominant ideology of Silicon Valley gentry progressivism.
Even at their most powerful the industrial age moguls could not control what people knew. They might back a newspaper, or later a radio or television station, but never secured absolute control of media. Competing interests still tussled in a highly regionalized and diverse media market. In contrast the digital universe, dominated by a handful of players located in just a few locales, threaten to make a pluralism of opinions a thing of the past. The former Google design ethicist Tristan Harris suggests that “a handful of tech leaders at Google and Facebook have built the most pervasive, centralized systems for steering human attention that has ever existed.”
Ultimately, particularly after the disasters associated with the Trump regime, the oligarchs seem certain to expand their efforts to control the one institution which could challenge their hegemony: government. Once seen as politically marginal, the oligarchs achieved a dominated role in the Democratic Party, in part by financing President Obama and later support for Hillary Clinton. In the Obama years Google operatives were in fact fairly ubiquitous, leading at least one magazine to label it “the Android Administration.” Since then a stream of Obama people have headed to Silicon Valley, working for firms such as Apple, Uber, and Airbnb. Obama himself has even mused about becoming a venture capitalist himself.
Of course with Trump in power, the oligarchs are mostly on the outs, although the twitterer in chief tried to recruit them. Now many of Silicon Valley power players are supporting the “resistance” and lending their expertise to Democratic campaigns. Unlike undocumented immigrants or other victims of Trumpism, they can count on many GOP politicians to watch their flank until the lunatic storm recedes.
In a future Democratic administration, as is already evident in places like California, the tech titans will use their money, savvy, and new dominance over our communications channels to steer and even dictate America’s political and cultural agendas to wield power in ways that even the likes of J.P. Morgan or John D. Rockefeller would envy.
What started as a brilliant, and profoundly non-political extension of the information revolution, notes early Google and Facebook investor Robert McNamee, now looms as “a menace,” part of a systematic “brain hacking” on a massive scale. We can choose to confront this reality—as the early 20th century progressives did—or stand aside and let the oligarchs chart our future without imposing any curbs on their seemingly inexorable hegemony.
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As Economy Grows, North Korea’s Grip on Society Weakens
By Choe Sang-Hun, NY Times, April 30, 2017
SEOUL, South Korea--Despite decades of sanctions and international isolation, the economy in North Korea is showing surprising signs of life.
Scores of marketplaces have opened in cities across the country since the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, took power five years ago. A growing class of merchants and entrepreneurs is thriving under the protection of ruling party officials. Pyongyang, the capital, has seen a construction boom, and there are now enough cars on its once-empty streets for some residents to make a living washing them.
Reliable economic data is scarce. But recent defectors, regular visitors and economists who study the country say nascent market forces are beginning to reshape North Korea--a development that complicates efforts to curb Mr. Kim’s nuclear ambitions.
Even as President Trump bets on tougher sanctions, especially by China, to stop the North from developing nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the United States, the country’s improving economic health has made it easier for it to withstand such pressure and to acquire funds for its nuclear program.
While North Korea remains deeply impoverished, estimates of annual growth under Mr. Kim’s rule range from 1 percent to 5 percent, comparable to some fast-growing economies unencumbered by sanctions.
But a limited embrace of market forces in what is supposed to be a classless society also is a gamble for Mr. Kim, who in 2013 made economic growth a top policy goal on par with the development of a nuclear arsenal.
Mr. Kim, 33, has promised his long-suffering people that they will never have to “tighten their belts” again. But as he allows private enterprise to expand, he undermines the government’s central argument of socialist superiority over South Korea’s capitalist system.
There are already signs that market forces are weakening the government’s grip on society. Information is seeping in along with foreign goods, eroding the cult of personality surrounding Mr. Kim and his family. And as people support themselves and get what they need outside the state economy, they are less beholden to the authorities.
“Our attitude toward the government was this: If you can’t feed us, leave us alone so we can make a living through the market,” said Kim Jin-hee, who fled North Korea in 2014 and, like others interviewed for this article, uses a new name in the South to protect relatives she left behind.
After the government tried to clamp down on markets in 2009, she recalled, “I lost what little loyalty I had for the regime.”
Kim Jin-hee’s loyalty was first tested in the 1990s, when a famine caused by floods, drought and the loss of Soviet aid gripped North Korea. The government stopped providing food rations, and as many as two million people died.
Ms. Kim did what many others did to survive. She stopped showing up for her state job, at a machine-tool factory in the mining town of Musan, and spent her days at a makeshift market selling anything she could get her hands on. Similar markets appeared across the country.
After the food shortage eased, the market in Musan continued to grow. By the time she left the country, Ms. Kim said, more than 1,000 stalls were squeezed into it alongside her own.
Kim Jong-il, the father of the North’s current leader, had been ambivalent about the marketplaces before he died in 2011. Sometimes he tolerated them, using them to increase food supplies and soften the blow of tightening sanctions imposed by the United Nations on top of an American embargo dating to the Korean War. Other times, he sought to suppress them.
But since 2010, the number of government-approved markets in North Korea has doubled to 440, and satellite images show them growing in size in most cities. In a country with a population of 25 million, about 1.1 million people are now employed as retailers or managers in these markets, according to a study by the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
Unofficial market activity has flourished, too: people making and selling shoes, clothing, sweets and bread from their homes; traditional agricultural markets that appear in rural towns every 10 days; smugglers who peddle black-market goods like Hollywood movies, South Korean television dramas and smartphones that can be used near the Chinese border.
At least 40 percent of the population in North Korea is now engaged in some form of private enterprise, a level comparable to that of Hungary and Poland shortly after the fall of the Soviet bloc, the director of South Korea’s intelligence service, Lee Byung-ho, told lawmakers in a closed-doorbriefing in February.
This market activity is driven in part by frustration with the state’s inefficient and rigid planned economy. North Koreans once worked only in state farms and factories, receiving salaries and ration coupons to buy food and other necessities in state stores. But that system crumbled in the 1990s, and now many state workers earn barely a dollar a month. Economists estimate the cost of living in North Korea to be $60 per month.
“If you are an ordinary North Korean today, and if you don’t make money through markets, you are likely to die of hunger,” said Kim Nam-chol, 46, a defector from Hoeryong, a town near the Chinese border. “It’s that simple.”
Before fleeing in 2014, Mr. Kim survived as a smuggler in North Korea. He bought goods such as dried seafood, ginseng, antiques and even methamphetamine, and he carried them across the border to sell in China. There, he used his earnings to buy grain, saccharin, socks and plastic bags and took it back to sell in North Korean markets.
He said he had paid off border guards and security officers to slip back and forth, often by offering them cigarette packs stuffed with rolled-up $100 or 10,000-yen bills.
“I came to believe I could get away with anything in North Korea with bribes,” he said, “except the crime of criticizing the ruling Kim family.”
Eighty percent of consumer goods sold in North Korean markets originate in China, according to an estimate by Kim Young-hee, director of the North Korean economy department at the Korea Development Bank in the South.
But Kim Jong-un has exhorted the country to produce more goods locally in an effort to lessen its dependence on China, using the word jagang, or self-empowerment. His call has emboldened manufacturers to respond to market demand.
Shoes, liquor, cigarettes, socks, sweets, cooking oil, cosmetics and noodles produced in North Korea have already squeezed out or taken market share from Chinese-made versions, defectors said.
Regular visitors to Pyongyang, the showcase capital, say a real consumer economy is emerging. “Competition is everywhere, including between travel agencies, taxi companies and restaurants,” Rüdiger Frank, an economist at the University of Vienna who studies the North, wrote recently after visiting a shopping center there.
A cellphone service launched in 2008 has more than three million subscribers. With the state still struggling to produce electricity, imported solar panels have become a middle-class status symbol. And on sale at some grocery stores and informal markets on the side streets of Pyongyang is a beverage that state propaganda used to condemn as “cesspool water of capitalism”--Coca-Cola.
When Kim Jong-un stood on a balcony reviewing a parade in April, he was flanked by Hwang Pyong-so, the head of the military, and Pak Pong-ju, the premier in charge of the economy.
The formation was symbolic of Mr. Kim’s byungjin policy, which calls for the parallel pursuit of two policy goals: developing the economy and building nuclear weapons. Only a nuclear arsenal, Mr. Kim argues, will make North Korea secure from American invasion and let it focus on growth.
Mr. Kim has granted state factories more autonomy over what they produce, including authority to find their own suppliers and customers, as long as they hit revenue targets. And families in collective farms are now assigned to individual plots called pojeon. Once they meet a state quota, they can keep and sell any surplus on their own.
The measures resemble those adopted by China in the early years of its turn to capitalism in the 1980s. But North Korea has refrained from describing them as market-oriented reforms, preferring the phrase “economic management in our own style.”
In state-censored journals, though, economists are already publishing papers describing consumer-oriented markets, joint ventures and special economic zones.
It is unclear how much of recent increases in grain production were due to Mr. Kim’s policies. Defectors say factories remain hobbled by electricity shortages and decrepit machinery while many farmers have struggled to meet state quotas because they lack fertilizer and modern equipment.
More broadly, the economy remains constrained by limited foreign investment and the lack of legal protections for private enterprise or procedures for contract enforcement.
Plans to set up special economic zones have remained only plans, as investors have balked at North Korea’s poor infrastructure and record of seizing assets from foreigners, not to mention the sanctions against it.
But there is evidence that the state is growing increasingly dependent on the private sector.
Cha Moon-seok, a researcher at the Institute for Unification Education of South Korea, estimates that the government collects as much as $222,000 per day in taxes from the marketplaces it manages. In March, the authorities reportedly ordered people selling goods from their homes to move into formal marketplaces in an effort to collect even more.
“Officials need the markets as much as the people need them,” said Kim Jeong-ae, a journalist in Seoul who worked as a propagandist in North Korea before defecting.
Ms. Kim fled North Korea in 2003 but has kept in touch with a younger brother there whom she describes as a donju, or money owner.
Donju is the word is what North Koreans use to describe the new class of traders and businessmen that has emerged.
Kim Jeong-ae said that her brother provided fuel, food and crew members for fishing boats, and that he split the catch with a military-run fishing company.
“He lives in a large house with tall walls,” she added, “so other people can’t see what he has there.”
Called “red capitalists” by South Korean scholars, donju invest in construction projects, establish partnerships with resource-strapped state factories and bankroll imports from China to supply retailers in the marketplaces. They operate with “covers,” or party officials who protect their businesses. Some are relatives of party officials.
Others are ethnic Chinese citizens, who are allowed regular visits to China and can facilitate cross-border financial transactions, and people with relatives who have fled to South Korea and send them cash remittances.
Whenever the state begins a big project, like the new district of high-rise apartment buildings that Kim Jong-un unveiled before foreign journalists in April, donju are expected to make “loyalty donations.” Sometimes they pay in foreign currency. Sometimes they contribute building materials, fuel or food for construction workers.
“Kim Jong-un is no fool,” said Kang Mi-jin, a defector who once ran her own wholesale business. “He knows where the money is.”
Donju often receive medals and certificates in return for their donations, and use them to signal they are protected as they engage in business activities that are officially illegal.
They import buses and trucks and run their own transportation services using license plates obtained from state companies. Some donju even rent farmland and mines, working them with their own employees and equipment, or open private pharmacies, defectors said.
“Donju wear the socialist hide, operating as part of state-run companies,” Ms. Kang said. “But inside, they are thoroughly capitalist.”
Before Kim Jong-un took power, the government made a last attempt to rein in donju and control market forces. It called on citizens to shop only in state stores, banned the use of foreign currency and adopted new bank notes while limiting the amount of old notes that individuals could exchange.
The move wiped out much of the private wealth created and saved by both donju and ordinary people. Market activity ground to a near halt. Prices skyrocketed, and protests were reported in scattered cities.
The government eventually retreated and is believed to have issued an apology when officials convened villagers for their weekly education sessions. It also executed the country’s top monetary official, Pak Nam-gi.
The crisis is widely considered the moment when the government concluded it could no longer suppress the markets. A year later, Pak Pong-ju, a former prime minister who had been ousted for pushing market-oriented policies, was restored to power. He now manages the economy under Mr. Kim.
As the markets develop, growing numbers of North Koreans will see the vastly superior products made overseas and perhaps question their nation’s backward status.
“Thanks to the market, few North Koreans these days flee for food, as refugees in the 1990s did,” said the Rev. Kim Seung-eun, a pastor who has helped hundreds of defectors reach South Korea. “Instead, they now flee to South Korea to have a better life they learned through the markets.”
Jung Gwang-il, who leads a defectors’ group in Seoul called No Chain, said that with more North Koreans getting what they needed from markets rather than the state, their view of Mr. Kim was changing.
“North Koreans always called Kim Jong-un’s grandfather and father ‘the Great Leader’ or ‘the General,’” Mr. Jung said. “Now, when they talk among themselves, many just call Jong-un ‘the Kid.’ They fear him but have no respect for him.”
“They say, ‘What has he done for us?’” Mr. Jung said.
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