#Ari's Threads

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Ari Drennen at Ari's Threads:

When authoritarian regimes collapse, it often looks sudden—leaders flee, governments dissolve, and the state unravels in real-time. But collapse is rarely spontaneous. More often, it’s the result of a slow, self-inflicted erosion of power, set in motion when leaders overestimate their own support and push too far. This was the case in Afghanistan in 2021, where the U.S.-backed government, built on external military support rather than genuine legitimacy, crumbled almost overnight. It was also the case in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where a war meant to demonstrate strength instead exposed military and political weakness. And it was the case in South Korea’s 2024 martial law crisis, where a government that assumed it could impose military rule without consequence was swiftly removed from power. Again and again, regimes that assume their grip on power is unshakable discover—too late—that their own overreach is what brings them down.

Overconfidence Leads to Overreach

Authoritarian regimes don’t collapse because of one bad decision. They collapse because of a pattern of miscalculations—each one widening the gap between the government and the people until the state is too hollow to stand.

[...]

Not all resistance looks like street protests or armed insurgencies. Some of the most effective opposition happens quietly, in ways that authoritarian governments struggle to contain. During World War II, the OSS Simple Sabotage Field Manual outlined ways that civilians could disrupt enemy governments—not with bombs, but with small, deliberate inefficiencies. Workers were told to misfile documents, delay projects, introduce small errors that, over time, would make the entire system grind to a halt. That same principle applied to Hong Kong’s 2014 protests, where a leaderless, encrypted messaging-driven movement made it nearly impossible for authorities to arrest key organizers. Every time police tried to crack down, new protest flash mobs would appear elsewhere. Digital resistance allowed the movement to stay ahead of law enforcement for months. In South Korea’s 2024 crisis, protesters flooded government hotlines, overloaded digital reporting systems, and created so much bureaucratic noise that state enforcement became nearly impossible. The government couldn’t keep up with digital disruptions, and by the time authorities responded, resistance had already moved to a different platform or tactic. Once a government loses the ability to enforce its own rules, even in the most basic ways, its power begins to slip—sometimes faster than even the people resisting expect.

[...]

Regimes Collapse from Within as Much as from Without

Governments don’t just fall because of external pressure. They fall because of their own mistakes. They push too hard, alienating even those who once supported them. They purge too many people, creating enemies where there were none. They assume military force can solve political problems, only to find that wars are easier to start than to win. They mistake silence for support, failing to see that silence is often just the absence of a safe way to speak. And then one day, the silence shatters, and the regime collapses so fast that even its leaders are caught off guard. Regimes that look stable on the surface often collapse the fastest. Russia hasn’t fallen, but it has been plunged into a financially ruinous war, losing soldiers and resources at an unsustainable rate. What was supposed to be a quick military victory has instead forced the country into a long, grinding conflict that is weakening its global influence and economic stability. Iraq was supposed to become a stable democracy, but de-Baathification fueled years of insurgency. South Korea’s government thought it could impose martial law, but within weeks, mass resistance forced it out.

Ari Drennen wrote a solid column on how autocratic regimes accelerate their collapse as a result of their drunken hubris, as we have seen in South Korea and Russia. This also applies to regimes that seemingly look stable.

[dailypokemoncrochet]

Jan-New-Ary Day 7/8! I think paradox pokemon are going to be difficult for me to do in the sense that I have done many of their "regular" counterparts and they'll feel too much like remakes, but this one had the additional hurdle of basically being 3 pokemon in one (magneton which is just magnemite x3 and both of which I've already done), PLUS more details. Altogether took 8hr7 and I had to take so many breaks because I was falling asleep a lot. Also this is a good example of a pokemon whose design really isn't that complicated, just time consuming. I love the way it turned out though!

[inkshadow]

random closed starter for @sunliights

"did you think we'd end up like this?" this was arbitrary and could be taken a great number of ways. ari wonders if bella knows she means completely, totally head-over-heels in love with your best friend. that eventually it becomes insufferable to be apart from one another for too long. she wonders if this is the feeling she's supposed to have that will finally drive her to split entirely from her parents. for now, she'll just remain thankful for the sanctuary that her brother's home provides the two of them for the summer. "i know that caelum likes to joke around about us not talking about what we are and i'm not super bothered by labels or anything at this point but... y-you know how i feel about you, right?" and really, the better question was if bella knew the extent of how much ari loves her.

[noirhistories]

closed starter for max / @fatebinds

"hurry up, you're being evicted," ari declared as he opened up the door of the cell. no matter what max was picked up for or by whom, it seemed like nothing ever managed to stick to him. which really wasn't any of ari's business and he wouldn't have cared about max sitting in a cell, except his shift ended in about ten minutes and he wanted a beer. he wasn't being nice, he wasn't lowering himself to do the works of other people, he was acting completely in his own self interest. plus, he always thought it was funny to have an excuse to shove max in the back of a car and threaten him with handcuffs - it truly was the little things in life that mattered. "five, four, three…"

[oopsallmabari]

oh i'm really vibing with the graphics style tbh!!!

and HARDING MY BELOVED HARDING HIIIIIIIIII

[ofduskorofdawn]

@warofthebeasts continued from here

"But..."

The boy jumps a little at another rumble of thunder, and he shrinks himself down further, his expression an equal mix of shame and genuine fear.

He hadn't yet gotten used to how the storms around the ShinRa building always sounded so close, as if he could open a window and lightning would come in.

The realistic part of him knew he was safe.

But he is only a child.

"...It's...childish... to be afraid of storms... but it sounds so close..."

@ofduskorofdawn

To see the kid so jumpy is a rarity, to be certain. She suspects it was not something he had necessarily intended to be observed, considering how she had just happened across him. But happened across him she did, and, as usual, she couldn't just look the other way.

[ He's just a kid. He shouldn't have to feel like he has to deal with these things alone. ]

"Hey, it's not childish. Hells, I've seen grown adults who are scared of storms. The fact is, anybody with any sense is afraid of something. It's just a matter of what. That's just how our brains are wired. You could say that it's a survival mechanism."

"Me? I hate the dark... Well, no, that's not exactly right... Maybe it's more that I hate the unknown of the dark, not being able to see what's in it."

It hadn't always been a fear of hers, but... Sometimes fears aren't innate; they're learned.

"So for me, it's things that go bump in the night. For you, it's storms. I don't know, but yours seems pretty reasonable, if you ask me."

[bittcrsuite]

open to: anyone ! plot: based on this ! muse: stella monti. 26-32. cosmetologist. dreams of opening her own salon one day.

"what are you doing here?" stella feigns surprise, failing to mention that she assisted with the guest list. she was tired of being iced out, so it was time to take matters into her own hands. "are you... did you bring a plus one?"

[heartfullofxfright]

@babyitsmagic <3

"oh, thank god it's just you, aries."

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Ari Drennen at Ari's Threads:

I have always been terrible at jumping through bureaucratic hoops, but the incoming Trump administration was enough to make me finally take action. Like many trans people, I felt an urgency to update the name and sex on my Social Security card. The stakes felt high, and the timeline felt even tighter with Trump’s promise to enshrine into law that there are only two genders, assigned at birth. My first attempt to navigate the Social Security Administration (SSA) process was through their phone system. After calling multiple times and enduring hold times of over an hour and a half, I found myself frustrated by the lack of options. There was no way to speak to a human without waiting indefinitely, no callback system, and hold music that made me want to claw my eyes out. It was a bureaucratic nightmare, and I still hadn’t even made an appointment.

Thankfully, my friends who had recently updated their Social Security cards reassured me that you could simply walk into the local office to get it done. So, on Friday, I headed down to the Social Security office, paperwork in hand, hopeful that this would finally be the end of the ordeal. When I arrived, I was met with an unexpected roadblock. The security officers at the door informed me that the SSA no longer processes any changes without an appointment. They said I could take a number, but it would be a four-hour wait just to speak with someone—and even then, all they could do was schedule me for a future appointment. [...] With less than one week left before Donald Trump takes power, armed with a legislative agenda that explicitly targets trans people, this new policy is creating unhelpful barriers for those scrambling to update their legal documents. Even though the actual process to update a name or sex marker on a Social Security card can be done by a single employee in about a minute, there’s no online option to schedule appointments, and appointments made over the phone or in person could be weeks into the future. President Biden has often said that he has trans people’s backs. Changes like this suggest otherwise.

[...] By standing my ground, I was ultimately able to update my Social Security card. But this experience shouldn’t have been this difficult. It shouldn’t require navigating byzantine policies or advocating for oneself in a system that feels designed to wear you down. To my fellow trans people: if you’ve been putting off updating your documents, now is the time. Go today, tomorrow, or Friday. Print out the announcement so that you can cite the language. If you have not updated your passport with your new name or gender marker, do the paperwork and drop the application in the mail before this weekend. The process can be frustrating and exhausting, but getting it done before these barriers grow higher is crucial. Trump could easily introduce even more roadblocks to updating this paperwork, making the process even harder in the future. The process can be frustrating and exhausting, but getting it done before these barriers grow higher is crucial. Resources are out there to help, and with persistence, you can make it through. There’s still time, but don’t wait—protect yourself now.

Ari Drennen recounts the horror story she faced while updating her legal documents in the wake of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and how trans and gender nonconforming people can change their gender markers before it becomes even more onerous.

[aamusedly]

@arcanumsolitude / ARIES.

"You're a mailman, if I ain't mistaken."

He had a way of becoming easy to miss in the right places: in this place, a refueling station for NCR caravans on their way up to the Strip, a bar and pit stop. Not unusual to see a drifter sitting in an old chair against the shack functioning as the only shade in the area.

Fairly unusual for him to call Aries out of nowhere. "Mojave Express Courier," the Ghoul elaborated with the slightest glint of sharp eyes under the brim of his hat. "You must get around."

"You think you could... bend my ear a bit with some directions 'round these parts?"

[inkshadow]

random closed starter for @sunliights

❝ it's here, it's here, it's here! ❞ there's a few envelopes in hand, one that housed either an acceptance or rejection letter for the internship she applied for. ❝ do you have yours? we should open them together. ❞

[noirhistories]

closed starter for dante / @saltedearths

"crying mothers shouldn't count." ari muttered in annoyance as he walked into the office and pulled out his wallet, removing a five from inside and shoving it in the glass mason jar with a post it note that said 'crying fees' along with a price chart. "they cry too fucking easy. you look at them the wrong way and they start sobbing over every injustice their baby has ever faced." they were all bleeding hearts and you'd think eventually they'd harder themselves to loss, but maybe grief remained an oozing, infected wound when you didn't have the closure of knowing why your loved one was lost.

[ofduskorofdawn]

@warofthebeasts continued from here

The room is dimly lit, though the faint light that creeps around and through the curtain catches in the vivid green of his eyes. He's perched himself on the bed against the furthest wall, knees drawn to his chest; what had set him off this time?

How long until they tire of this monster they dragged out of the abyss that only vaguely resembles the boy they had loved?

A hand tangles absently through his own hair.

"You know that isn't true."

@ofduskorofdawn

"Is that so?" she questions, one eyebrow rising as she regards him.

"And how is it that you know what I know more than I do, hm?"

Her voice is different than the almost performative one she uses when not here, in their home, when not alone with her family. It is softer here, lacking its usual wry sharpness, a soft warmth evident instead. Were he to look at her, he would find that there is no anger in her expression, no exasperation.

What there is... is a small, sad smile, a smile weighted by all with which she knows he is struggling... She cannot fully comprehend it—lacking that particular life experience as she is—but she can see the toll that it takes on him, and she knows that there is only so much that she can do to help.

But if trying to right even this one misconception is it, then attempt to right it she shall.

Carefully, deliberately, she walks from where she had been leaned against the doorframe leading into his room, and she takes a seat on the edge of his bed, as though he was still that child, as though the years had not passed—unkind to all of them and even crueler still to him—since those days when that sad, lost boy first had found a place in Tseng's heart and then in her own.

[ Time makes no difference to a mother's heart. ]

"Because what I know, is that you... are trying your absolute best to navigate an incredibly difficult situation, and that's..."

A sigh and she shakes her head, trying to find the right words.

"... Having moments or days that are worse than others? That's normal. And having those moments or days—or more, even? That does not mean that you don't deserve to be loved."

She does not reach out to take his hand then, so much as she would like to give that comfort, but she does set her hand upon the bed halfway between where they both sit, upturned in a silent offer. As ever, she will leave it to him to accept or decline, on his own terms.

"And where Tseng and I are concerned, it changes nothing. We will always care for you. We will always love you. That's a promise."

[nomadjones]

dallas 📲 ari.

Dallas: Hey, it's Dallas, in case you don't have this number saved. Dallas: I'm getting sick of hiking the same trails, have you been up to any interesting ones lately?

[nyhoney]

[evocatiive]

random starter for @dysnomiias

"Your parents....they don't really like me, do they?" That much has always felt obvious, as if Key isn't someone worthy of their daughter's friendship, much less anything more. The two of them have always skirted around that fact, but he doesn't know how much longer they can do that. His smile is a twisted thing, twinging and rueful. "Do you think there will ever be a way for me to get into their good graces?"