#Also this poll will not affect my decisions in the slightest

[dapper-lil-arts]

So uh. My freelance work here is kind of dying.

I thought i'd keep my long-term followers on the know-how, so i might as well write about my current circumstances here, give y'all an update, so to speak.

So, for several reasons, most of them not even my fault, i've been getting less and less commissions, almost none, actually, and the ones i get are usualy on the cheaper side, which is bad concidering that this is my livelihood, commission money pays my bills, my groceries, and my taxes, and now i sure as hell am strugling to imagine this will sustain me for long. Twitter is a sinking ship ever since elon went over, Specificaly for people like me. I had just broken into 12k followers there, a huge milestone for me, and then i got shadowbanned, and for the last few months i've gotten *nothing*. It's completely dead, i'm stagnated there, all my arts are censored, and there's no way for me to undo it or fix it, and so i've gotten less and less comms out there, which sucks because its the only reason i was even on that stupid site. Here on tumblr, meanwhile, the CEO went on a massive transphobic streak, and a lot of lgbt folk (which composed a lot of my following,) decided to jump ship, and i sure as hell dont blame them, but sadly that's more potential costumers that bailed, and there's no proper website to go to. Anywhere i'd go, i'd be starting from scratch again, which would be utterly disheartening and frustrating, and there no website that is kind to artists, with no algorythim, that also have a messaging system (the latter being ESSENTIAL to the way i do comms) So i'm kind of stuck. I just. have nowhere to go, and nothing to do. And last but not least, my own fault, I've just been drawing and creating what *I* specificaly want, on an hedonistic streak this year. That's why theres so much pony bs on this blog now, and why i was straight up posting poetry a while back, and have written hundreds upon hundreds of fanfiction pages in the last few months; Which, unfortunately, is a terrible business decision if your intent is making money. Which I surely should have prioritized, but in the end, its not up to me, its up to the costumers... So now i'm a bit stuck. I've enjoyed the things ive drawn and written more than anything i've ever done, and yet, i've never been less successful on the actual business side. I'm still considering my venues, my possibilities, but there's not many. Trying to get a job would certainly pull me away from creation, and i'd hate it regardless of what it was, and on another venue, theres no guarantee that going back to furry titties would bring me money.

and that's whats heartbreaking about it too. no matter how much effort i put on my work, theres no guarantee of sucess, so why even spend time trying to craft a masterpiece? why not just follow trends and make a tiktok account or whatever the fuck makes money these days. I'd rather not, frankly. And i wont. Well, that's about it. Thanks for reading this update, that's how my life is goin atm. i'm going to continue doing as i am right now, but yknow... I'm not sure what i should do, if you want to give me suggestions, feel free.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is the first debate of 2020 and the last debate before the voting starts in Iowa in less than three weeks. There are six candidates (the smallest debate stage yet), and we’ve finally published our primary forecast (!!!), which shows the field (especially in Iowa) is pretty wide open.

So how are you thinking about tonight’s debate? Do you think it has the potential to really shake things up?

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): I think the big story on Monday — and potentially the big story of the debate — is what’s going on with the rivalry between Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. First, there is the Sanders campaign’s talking points that reportedly had volunteers paint Warren as “the candidate of the elite.” And then a story leaked on Monday that’s pretty damn unflattering to Sanders, claiming he told Warren he didn’t think a woman could win the presidency. So … I would say there’s some jostling on the progressive end of the spectrum that could play out tonight!

ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): Definitely. One thing I’ll be watching for is whether some of the tacit alliances we’ve seen between the candidates start to break down. That story really did not reflect well on Sanders. On the other hand, it’s generally risky for women to go on the offensive in debates like these, so it might be a little tricky for Warren to turn that to her advantage.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): Yeah, it seems like the theme of this debate is somewhat inevitably going to be SANDERS-WARREN BATTLE. Unless they really do decide to turn the other cheek.

clare.malone: I mean, I do think the Warren people have been savvier about dropping opposition research like this.

natesilver: That’s a pretty serious oppo drop.

clare.malone: Sanders’s defense is generally “the mainstream media is stirring up conflict.”

Which is true, partially, in the sense that the media is the one publishing this stuff, but there are, indeed, real tensions between those two campaigns!

natesilver: Like, 95 percent of these oppo drops are dumb as fuck, concerning things that ordinarily voters couldn’t possibly care about. But this would be a big deal if it’s somehow confirmed or if Warren repeats the accusation herself.

sarahf: Yeah, it’s amazing how fast the news cycle moves, I had thought the situation with Iran would be the dominant thread of conversation tonight, but agree that between the Selzer & Co. Iowa poll that put Sanders in first in Iowa, and now the breakdown of Warren and Sanders’s truce to not attack each other, that will be a big part of tonight’s debate. And going in, it doesn’t seem great for Sanders …

ameliatd: Warren could really benefit from getting some more support from lefty Democrats who might be undecided or mostly seem to be sticking with Sanders. But if this accusation comes off as a cheap shot from Warren, I think that could hurt her. Or at least, not endear her further to those on the left.

clare.malone: Sanders’s support is pretty sticky, though, so it’s hard for me to see her winning over any of his supporters. Honestly, at this point, I think she has to worry about losing her supporters to Sanders or Pete Buttigieg — or even Joe Biden.

natesilver: Part of the dynamic is that Sanders hasn’t really been considered a front-runner. But now the media is covering him like one, even though it’s not really clear how much has actually changed in his candidacy. (If you look at the odds in our primary model — where we ran older forecasts retroactively before we launched — Sanders’s chances of winning the majority of pledged delegates have been pretty steady since November.)

sarahf: So let’s say tonight is the Sanders “wine cave” edition, where he’s at the center of attacks like Buttigieg was in the December debate. That debate seemed to have actually dampened some enthusiasm for Buttigieg — for instance, he fell pretty substantially in that Selzer poll from where he was in November. Do we see Sanders as the candidate tonight who has the most at stake? What about Biden? He is after all, the front-runner in our model even if he’s not the clear favorite to win; i.e., he’s still an underdog relative to the rest of the field.

natesilver: So on the one hand, I agree that Sanders’s support is likely to be pretty sticky, as Clare puts it. There’s evidence from polls that his supporters are the most firmly committed to any one candidate. But on the other hand, he hasn’t really gotten the same front-runner-type scrutiny that Warren DID get at some points this fall. So whether he holds up, once that level of scrutiny is applied, is very much up in the air.

ameliatd: And it’s not a low-stakes debate for Warren either, because she’s been actively trying to revitalize her campaign. When I was in Iowa on a reporting trip a few weeks ago, she was kind of trying to hit the “reset” button by hammering her core message on corruption and the economy. And of course, she’s now campaigning with Julián Castro.

clare.malone: I mean, we’ll just have to wait and see what the attacks are. I’m not entirely sure Warren, for instance, would go for “Bernie is sexist” on stage. That just doesn’t seem like her temperament. I would expect more of an attack on Sanders from Warren to be like, “his plans are implausible and therefore, bad for the general election.” But then again, he could also push back (as he’s been doing on the campaign trail), saying that HE is actually the most electable in a general. And there’s some truth to it, especially in comparison to Warren. Our polling with Ipsos shows the same thing — voters generally rate Sanders next after Biden in terms of his ability to defeat Trump.

Also, Sanders benefits from everyone kinda knowing what his thing is — socialism, baby! — which takes some of the sting out of “he’s too far out there!!” attacks. The brand is strong, as the kids say.

sarahf: Right, but to Amelia’s point, tonight could be a big night for Warren. She was only 3 points behind Sanders in that Selzer poll, which is a good sign for her considering her national numbers had dipped in late November and through December. And you can already see the slightest of upticks already in our national polling average:

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, that Selzer poll had Sanders in the lead in Iowa as we’ve discussed, but then that Monmouth poll out on Monday showed Biden in the lead with 24 percent in Iowa and Sanders in second at 18 percent, suggesting that Iowa is very wide open and very difficult to predict.

clare.malone: Like the state itself!

sarahf: Right, Biden is either in first or fourth, depending on which poll you look at.

geoffrey.skelley: So far, the debates haven’t seemed to have affected the polls all that much, at least not since Sen. Kamala Harris’s surge after the June debate.

The first Democratic debate shifted polls the most

Average change* in national polls and the candidates who moved the most after the first four Democratic primary debates

Debate Avg. Change Biggest gainer Biggest loser June 26-27 +/- 2.4 Harris +8.3 Biden -6.5 July 30-31 0.9 Warren +3.0 Harris -3.0 Sept. 12 1.1 Warren +4.4 Sanders -2.0 Oct. 15 1.0 Buttigieg +1.6 Warren -3.5

*Average change in national polls evaluates the average absolute change in polling averages before and after each debate across the 10 candidates with the highest post-debate polling average. Polling averages were calculated using national polls conducted during the two weeks before and two weeks after each debate.

Source: Polls

Although I haven’t run the numbers the same way for the November and December debates, one look at the polls suggests there wasn’t a dramatic shakeup after those events, either. Now, tonight’s debate could be different since there are fewer candidates and voting is right around the corner. But then again, maybe not.

clare.malone: My spidey sense is that this debate will matter, especially to Iowans. These people are tuned in to a deranged degree!

natesilver: And polls also find that a high proportion of Iowans haven’t yet made their final decision.

clare.malone: Right.

sarahf: So if many Iowans haven’t made their final decision … how many do you think are actively considering Amy Klobuchar or Tom Steyer?

Klobuchar didn’t do as well in that Selzer poll as I thought she might, given how respondents in our poll with Ipsos rated her December debate performance. Granted, a lot of time has passed since Dec. 19, but there also haven’t been that many polls.

And then Steyer had a kind of weird surge in South Carolina and Nevada? It’s too soon to really make sense of what’s happening there (although he has spent a ton of money on TV ads).

natesilver: Klobuchar is actually in a pretty weird place. She’s at 6.6 percent in our Iowa polling average, but usually candidates either rise up to at least ~15 percent in Iowa — which matters, given how the caucus process itself works — or fall back into the low single digits.

clare.malone: The Steyer stuff is interesting in the sense that yes, he’s doing well in polls, probably because of advertising in those two states that have fewer ads in general than, say, Iowa or New Hampshire. But other candidates are going to start to get into that media-market scrum. Let’s see how much those numbers stick for him.

What I will say, though, is that the ads themselves cannily talk about the economy, not impeachment or climate change, subjects with which Steyer is more closely associated.

ameliatd: Steyer has been kind of defensive, too, about the fact that he made the debate at all — the implication being that he’s only there because he spent a ton of money on ads. That makes him a potential target, particularly for someone like Sanders or Warren. But attacking him also runs the risk of making him look like a more serious threat, so it’s somewhat complicated.

clare.malone: I think he won’t really be a big factor, tbh.

natesilver: I just don’t think Steyer is very interesting.

ameliatd: Right, maybe the other candidates won’t think it’s worth their time to question why he’s even there.

natesilver: So long as he’s at 3 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire, I don’t really care where he is in Nevada and South Carolina.

clare.malone: I mean, I don’t think he’s half bad in debates! I just think the scrum will go a little more the Sanders/Warren and the Buttigieg/Klobuchar.

perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): We touched on this a bit earlier, but Biden is currently winning the race for the nomination. And I think, as a result, you are seeing blunter criticism of him. Buttigieg and Sanders have both taken Biden to task for his vote for the Iraq War, and Sanders has also criticized Biden’s record on issues of racial justice.

I’m not sure his rivals will attack Biden on Tuesday, but that’s the thing I’m watching most closely: Does anyone decide this is the last real chance to take on the person mostly likely to win? I have been confused by how much Warren’s allies are attacking Buttigieg, and now it seems like Warren is attacking Sanders — but Biden is winning!

It feels like 2016 a bit — Christie attacking Rubio instead of Trump — what is the point?

natesilver: If somehow Biden gets through the debate, and all the focus is on Sanders vs. Warren, Buttigieg, etc. — that seems like a very fortunate outcome for the former vice president.

ameliatd: Yes, Biden clearly benefited from being able to float above the fray in the December debate. And the other candidates mostly let him do that, which was a little weird.

natesilver: Biden does have a tendency to cause trouble for himself, of course.

It’s also probably worth noting that his relatively smooth debate in December has been followed up by quite a few endorsements, etc. Party elites seem to have fewer concerns than they once did about his steadiness as a candidate.

perry: Harris was kind of limited in taking on Biden, in my view, since she will be high on the VP list. But I don’t think Biden is going to pick Buttigieg, Warren or Sanders for VP, so they have very little incentive to hold back. Buttigieg, in particular, has been very good at attacking people — it would be interesting to see if one was the one to push the Iraq issue, because Biden seems, at times, unwilling to concede he voted for the war.

clare.malone: Yeah, I gotta say, that whole thing is really weird.

John Kerry, a Biden surrogate, was trying to say that other candidates were misrepresenting his record, but it’s clear as day that Biden voted for the Iraq War. If you want to complicate the narrative and say it was a mistake, and you were misled — fine. But that whole talking point is weak sauce, in my opinion.

sarahf: OK, this is our last debate before the voting starts in Iowa, and as I said at the outset of the chat — it’s pretty much a four-way race with Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg all projected to get some delegates. Biden is in the lead in our forecast, but as we’ve said in our chat, a lot of Iowans are still on the fence. What will you be keeping a close eye on tonight to see if it moves the needle at all?

perry: Biden seems poised to win the nomination — perhaps even Iowa. I’ll be watching to see whether any of the other top three really take him on — and if they do, on what issues?

ameliatd: I will be interested to see, as Perry mentioned, if Biden’s Iraq war vote — and his strange unwillingness to admit to it — gets turned against him, or if he can turn the general foreign policy conversation/discussion of what’s happening with Iran in his favor. Because in general, that’s an issue where he has a clear advantage over the other candidates.

clare.malone: I mean, it’s trite, but I’ll be curious to see what Warren and Sanders do on stage, given the conflict they’ve had. And I’ll be curious to see if Sanders, in particular, challenges Biden on a general-election electability front.

natesilver: Repeating myself a bit, but it feels to me like Sanders is liable to play a central role in this debate with perceptions that he’s now a front-runner, and those sorts of debates tend to be pretty high stakes.

ameliatd: Basically, tonight comes down to who’s taking the gloves off, and who are they going after?

[newstfionline]

Sunday, February 28, 2021

House passes $1.9T pandemic bill on near party-line vote (AP) The House approved a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill in a win for President Joe Biden, even as top Democrats tried assuring agitated progressives that they’d revive their derailed drive to boost the minimum wage. The new president’s vision for flushing cash to individuals, businesses, states and cities battered by COVID-19 passed on a near party-line 219-212 vote early Saturday. That ships the massive measure to the Senate. Democrats said the still-faltering economy and the half-million American lives lost demanded quick, decisive action. GOP lawmakers, they said, were out of step with a public that polling shows largely views the bill favorably. Republicans said the bill was too expensive and said too few education dollars would be spent quickly to immediately reopen schools. They said it was laden with gifts to Democratic constituencies like labor unions and funneled money to Democratic-run states they suggested didn’t need it because their budgets had bounced back.

Mexico eases coronavirus restrictions in popular tourist cities ahead of spring break (Washington Post) The Mexican state of Quintana Roo is softening its coronavirus restrictions following a decrease in confirmed covid-19 cases in the area, officials announced Thursday on Twitter. The entire state, which includes the major tourist destinations of Cancún, Tulum and Playa del Carmen, will begin to permit hotels, restaurants, shops, theaters and theme parks to operate at 60 percent capacity next week. Previous limits on hotel and restaurant capacities were 30 percent. The news comes just before Mexico’s busy spring break season and despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s January warning for Americans not to visit Mexico because of “very high” levels of the coronavirus. New U.S. entry restrictions that require a negative coronavirus test result of all arrivals were also mentioned in the CDC warning, which remains at a highest-possible Level 4. “Travelers should avoid all travel to Mexico,” the CDC’s Mexico travel warning states. “Travel increases your chances of getting and spreading COVID-19. CDC recommends that you do not travel at this time.”

Experts notice pandemic’s mental health toll on German youth (AP) Pollina Dinner returned to school in Berlin for the first time this week after two months of lockdown. The 9-year-old third-grader was thrilled to see her classmates and teachers again but frets about the coronavirus pandemic’s effect on her life. “I’m not afraid of the coronavirus, I’m afraid that everything will continue like this—that my school will close again, I won’t be able to see my friends, and that I can’t go to the movies with my family,” the girl said, fingering her blue medical mask and sighing deeply. “And wearing this mask is even worse than all the shops being closed.” Psychiatrists, psychologists and pediatricians in Germany have voiced growing alarm that school closings, social restrictions and other precautions are magnifying the fear, disruption and stress of the pandemic among Germany’s 13.7 million children and teenagers, raising the prospect of a future mental health crisis. A recent survey by the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf found that about one child in three is suffering from pandemic-related anxiety or depression or is exhibiting psychosomatic symptoms like headaches or stomach aches. Children from poorer and immigrant families are disproportionally affected, according to the survey.

China Persecutes Those Who Question ‘Heroes.’ A Sleuth Keeps Track. (NYT) In China, don’t question the heroes. At least seven people over the past week have been threatened, detained or arrested after casting doubt over the government’s account of the deaths of Chinese soldiers during a clash last year with Indian troops. Three of them are being detained for between seven and 15 days. The other four face criminal charges, including one man who lives outside China. “The internet is not a lawless place,” said the police notices issued in their cases. “Blasphemies of heroes and martyrs will not be tolerated.” Their punishment might have gone unnoticed if it weren’t for an online database of speech crimes in China. A simple Google spreadsheet open for all to see, it lists nearly 2,000 times when the government punished people for what they said online and offline. The list paints a bleak picture of a government that punishes its citizens for the slightest hint of criticism. It shows how random and merciless China’s legal system can be when it punishes its citizens for what they say, even though freedom of speech is written into China’s Constitution. The list describes dissidents sentenced to long prison terms for attacking the government. It tells of petitioners, those who appeal directly to the government to right the wrongs against them, locked up for making too loud a clamor. It covers nearly 600 people punished for what they said about Covid-19, and too many others who cursed out the police, often after receiving parking tickets.

Myanmar police deploy early to crank up pressure on protests (AP) Police in Myanmar escalated their crackdown on demonstrators against this month’s military takeover, deploying early and in force on Saturday as protesters sought to assemble in the country’s two biggest cities and elsewhere. Security forces in some areas appeared to become more aggressive in using force and making arrests, utilizing more plainclothes officers than had previously revealed themselves. Photos posted on social media showed that residents of at least two cities, Yangon and Monywa, resisted by erecting makeshift street barricades to try to hinder the advance of the police. Myanmar’s crisis took a dramatic turn on the international stage at a special session of the United Nations General Assembly on Friday when the country’s U.N. ambassador declared his loyalty to the ousted civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi and called on the world to pressure the military to cede power.

New Zealand’s largest city Auckland back to lockdown after COVID-19 case (Reuters) New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Saturday that the country’s biggest city, Auckland, will go into a seven-day lockdown from early morning on Sunday after a new local case of the coronavirus of unknown origin emerged. This comes two weeks after Auckland’s nearly 2 million residents were plunged into a snap three-day lockdown when a family of three were diagnosed with the more transmissible UK variant of the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Health officials, who could not immediately confirm how the person got infected, said genome sequencing of the new infection was under way.

School children abducted in Nigeria’s Niger state released, governor says (Reuters) Gunmen in Nigeria on Saturday released 42 people, including 27 students, who were kidnapped from a boarding school last week in the north-central state of Niger, the state’s governor said. Their release comes just a day after a separate raid on a school in Nigeria’s Zamfara state where gunmen seized more than 300 girls.

Plants linked to lower levels of violence and self-harm in prisons (The Guardian) Green space has been shown to boost learning, improve recovery from hospital operations and lower the risk of mental disorders. Now the power of plants has been linked to lower levels of violence and self-harm in prisons. Researchers mapped the percentage of green space—trees, lawns and shrubbery—within prisons in England and Wales and compared it with incidents of self-harm, prisoner assaults on staff and violence between prisoners. Taking account of variables such as the age of prisons, their security level, population density, and whether they accommodated men, women or young offenders, the researchers from the University of Birmingham and Utrecht University found prisons with a higher presence of green space had lower levels of self-harm, and lower levels of assaults on staff and between prisoners. The study, published in the Annals of the American Association of Geographers, suggests a modest 10% increase in green space inside a prison could reduce prisoner-on-prisoner assaults by 6.6%, with self-harm falling by 3.5% and assaults on staff by 3.2%. Another study in one British prison found that outdoor green space and photographic images of the natural environment that took up a whole wall led prisoners to report restorative feelings of calm and the ability to reflect.

[michaelfallcon]

Voices Of The Global Coffee Supply Chain Respond To COVID-19

For the third and final of our latest series of reader polls on how COVID-19 is impacting the specialty coffee world—the first specifically for baristas and the second for the coffee consuming public—we ditched the more statistical approach in favor of in-depth individual answers. The results look a lot more like a survey than a poll—they are truly revealing, equal parts hopeful and gut-wrenching.

This survey was open to anyone whose employment pre-COVID fell within the coffee supply chain, anywhere in the world. To make sure the responses truly represented the global community, the survey was presented in a total of eight different languages: Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, and Spanish.

The responses we received, nearly 170 in total, reflect both the transcontinental nature of coffee, the chain of hands that take a tiny ripe little cherry from oceans away and turn it into the beverage in your cup. Representing a total of 30 countries across six continents, we received thoughtful answers from producers, exporters, importers, green buyers, roasters, cafe owners, and baristas. Over the course of three rather open prompts, we wanted to find out, generally, how COVID-19 has changed life for those who make their lives in and around coffee.

We are reprinting a selection of those responses in full below. All answers were given anonymously. We have included each respondent’s country of residence and job title for context.

Some answers have been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

How has the pandemic impacted your workplace?

All of us are doing our best and working from home; only key production personnel are authorized to be at the roastery to prepare wholesale orders or quantities for our coffee shops’ consumption. — Commercial Manager at a cafe/roastery, Bahrain

We had to shut down our shop in high season two weeks ago. No seating, no terrace, and kitchen closed. We opened a kiosk the next day selling coffee beans and take-away coffee. We keep a high safety standard for customers and staff to create a secure environment. Fortunately one of our regulars runs a drug store and provides us with disinfectant and masks. Everything seems to be unreal in our good old shop but our customers really appreciate what we do. All catering and coffee courses are canceled until December. — Cafe/roastery owner, Germany

The impact is still unfolding. Uganda has introduced a number of lock-down measures that are already impacting the poorest of the poor, the people with whom we work. Movements have been stopped, public and private transport cancelled. The motorbike riders are out of work, people in the villages where we work can’t get to health centers for safe delivery of babies, treatment of other illnesses. Although exports of goods are still permitted (and we still have committed customers at the moment in the US/UK/Korea for which we are so thankful), processing factories—mills, warehouses, etc—are heavily restricted. This is already leading to delays to orders. We hope it doesn’t lead to cancellations.

As a project we’ve always committed to pay our farmers cash on delivery, so we’re grateful that all our payments on the mountain are cleared. Our farmers and workers have all been paid for the season. However, as a project we absolutely now rely on our buyers coming through so that we can receive payments for the coffee and clear our business loans… We’re really hoping that we can get our orders out, that we can agree terms with our buyers that help them out, which allow us to support our farmers at a time when they need us most. — Director of a Producer Organization, Uganda

In New Zealand, all cafes, restaurants, retail shops, etc. are completely closed. We are primarily a wholesale coffee supplier direct to cafes, we don’t supply mainstream supermarkets, only a few boutiques. We do have a web store for direct to consumer sales but the lockdown restrictions stopped us from offering coffee online too, as roasters were only able to continue supply to essential supermarkets, not to home drinkers. Thankfully the online sales restriction was lifted after 9 days of shutdown, so we at least have that now. But volume wise, we are doing 90-95% less than we usually do, as almost our entire customer base is closed down. The lockdown is scheduled for 4 weeks, depending on the situation it may get extended. Even when it is lifted we will likely have a period of non-essential closures, takeaway only etc. Our borders will probably remain closed or essentially closed for months to come meaning next to no tourism (a huge industry in our country) so less coffee drinkers around in general. And it is likely that a lot of our wholesale customers may not reopen after this.

For what it’s worth I am completely supportive of the shutdown and after 12 days it appears to be effective, the curve is flattening. But it undoubtedly has a heavy impact on hospitality that will be hard to recover from.

My workplace as a result of the pandemic has introduced distancing practices in and stepped up general hygiene. Anyone who can work at home, is. As a result of the low sales volumes and general slow down of work, a lot of my colleagues have been placed on discretionary leave, being paid the minimum government subsidy until nationally we return to “alert level 2” (there’s a 4 step alert system, we’re in level 4 now). Nobody has been laid off, yet. — Head Roaster, New Zealand

Minimally. Panama is in total lockdown, agriculture exempted. Most of our coffee is sold to Asia, who continues to buy. Main problem is shipping logistics, especially via air. — Producer/exporter, Panama

In Jakarta, our government has not required us to do a complete lockdown. We are still allowed to operate but we only have one location purely for takeaways. We used to have three stores. Sales have dropped around 80% and it’s tough. We have put some of our recent hires on unpaid leave… hoping this will end soon. — Cafe owner, Indonesia

How has the pandemic impacted your job?

I’ve personally accepted more responsibility, since we’re down to a skeleton crew and the acting manager isn’t setting foot in the cafe because he doesn’t have insurance and he’s scared. Most days are either really busy or dead in the water. The days that we’re busy I make astoundingly good tips. Every day I wonder if it will be the last before the government shuts all of the restaurants down. — Barista/manager, United States

As a founder you wear all the hats in the business anyway so day to day hasn’t changed too much except now absolutely everything is done from my laptop except for packing all the online orders. — Founder of a cold brew coffee company, United Kingdom

For many small exporters, to finance one container requires quite a bit of financial muscle, not to mention the hefty interest rates from banks and/or private lenders. Because of the world-wide stay-at-home effort, roasters aren’t stocking up on green because of the uncertainty and consumers aren’t going out to coffee shops and restaurants to drink their coffee, which is reducing consumption. Once the consumer stops spending, the roaster slows down production, the importer starts sitting on green, and well, the exporter has to scramble to find a quick solution to stay afloat and continue to carry the loans until payment can be made from the importer/roaster. By holding up cash-flow, exporters will not be able to purchase as much coffee as projected, affecting the farmer who will have to sell to the co-op and be subject to the market price. The reduction in demand that is expected for 2nd and 3rd quarters will also have an affect on the quantity of coffee being purchased at specialty prices.

There is also a worry of a shortage of pickers for this harvest season for two reasons; pickers don’t want to leave home and risk getting infected while away from home and two, local governments don’t want pickers from other regions coming in to their regions potentially carrying the virus. This has prompted some local governments to start campaigns to hire locals to pick coffee, offering guaranteed medical coverage against the virus and other subsidies. — Importer/exporter, Colombia

Our management made the right decision to close the coffee house completely, and not work “to-go”, because even the slightest risk is a risk for all of us. — Barista, Russia

Sales have dropped a lot. Also forecasting has stopped as no roaster wants to take a long term guess. This is impacting how we can forecast purchases at origin as well. — Green coffee buyer, Australia

It’s gone for now! I’ve worked in the coffee industry since I was 18, I’m 25 now. It’s been my career aspiration to work in a coffee roastery. Eight months into my dream job and it’s been snatched away from me. I was also training for the Brewers cup, hours of training put in with a coffee that won’t make it to the national stage. — Production assistant/account manager, Ireland

What’s your life like right now?

I’m enjoying myself at home, trying to work on creative projects, suddenly needing to buy way more whole bean than I normally would. I visited my store yesterday to say hello to everyone, and I’m glad I’m not working through this time. The job right now simply isn’t what I was hired for, or what I had hired staff for, and although I know regulars keep showing up and the working staff are nothing but positive, I know I couldn’t suspend my fear and completely alter our operations without having an eventual breakdown. Sometimes I worry that I made the wrong choice, that I turned my back on a great company and wonderful coworkers, but this is far bigger than me, than any of us individually, and I have to remind myself that despite the uncertainty, staying home is the likely the best thing I can do for everyone in my community. — Barista/manager, Canada

Working from home and waiting for funding from the government so that I won’t have to shut down altogether. — Cafe owner, Brazil

It is better but still we hope that we will overcome it soon because still we are making just 50% of our regular numbers. — Cafe owner, Czech Republic

My wife and I run our cafe, where we have around 11 employees. The future is just uncertain. We were one of the first coffee roasters in Kazakhstan, and we have been here for the past eight years watching the culture grow. And now I’m scared we will have to start all over. — Cafe/roastery owner, Kazakhstan

My life is very precarious. I have expenses without any return. I am limited in practicing my profession, if not for video lessons to keep in touch with the community. How it will return to normal is my doubt. Our profession is at risk. — Barista, Italy

Filled with anxiety of no income but relaxing spending time with loved ones at home. — Head of coffee, South Africa

My life is a series of zoom calls, FaceTime, daily anxiety, and planning my alternate idea of a career that doesn’t rely on the global economy. I’ve been knitting a lot and filming crafting videos. — Roasting operations manager, United Kingdom

Boring and stressful. — Cafe owner, Trinidad

I filed for unemployment but with little clarity as to what the stimulus package is actually sending, my partner (also a barista) and I are making about a third of our wages from unemployment leaving our livelihood up in the air with rent and other bills still coming. We are also losing our health insurance through our full-time jobs. — Barista, United States

Additional Reporting

Poll results: Baristas 

Poll results: Coffee consumption

Voices of baristas

Voices of cafe owners

Voices of importers 

All COVID-19 coverage on Sprudge. 

Zac Cadwalader is the managing editor at Sprudge Media Network and a staff writer based in Dallas. Read more Zac Cadwalader on Sprudge.

Voices Of The Global Coffee Supply Chain Respond To COVID-19 published first on https://medium.com/@LinLinCoffee

[shebreathesslowly]

Voices Of The Global Coffee Supply Chain Respond To COVID-19

For the third and final of our latest series of reader polls on how COVID-19 is impacting the specialty coffee world—the first specifically for baristas and the second for the coffee consuming public—we ditched the more statistical approach in favor of in-depth individual answers. The results look a lot more like a survey than a poll—they are truly revealing, equal parts hopeful and gut-wrenching.

This survey was open to anyone whose employment pre-COVID fell within the coffee supply chain, anywhere in the world. To make sure the responses truly represented the global community, the survey was presented in a total of eight different languages: Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, and Spanish.

The responses we received, nearly 170 in total, reflect both the transcontinental nature of coffee, the chain of hands that take a tiny ripe little cherry from oceans away and turn it into the beverage in your cup. Representing a total of 30 countries across six continents, we received thoughtful answers from producers, exporters, importers, green buyers, roasters, cafe owners, and baristas. Over the course of three rather open prompts, we wanted to find out, generally, how COVID-19 has changed life for those who make their lives in and around coffee.

We are reprinting a selection of those responses in full below. All answers were given anonymously. We have included each respondent’s country of residence and job title for context.

Some answers have been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

How has the pandemic impacted your workplace?

All of us are doing our best and working from home; only key production personnel are authorized to be at the roastery to prepare wholesale orders or quantities for our coffee shops’ consumption. — Commercial Manager at a cafe/roastery, Bahrain

We had to shut down our shop in high season two weeks ago. No seating, no terrace, and kitchen closed. We opened a kiosk the next day selling coffee beans and take-away coffee. We keep a high safety standard for customers and staff to create a secure environment. Fortunately one of our regulars runs a drug store and provides us with disinfectant and masks. Everything seems to be unreal in our good old shop but our customers really appreciate what we do. All catering and coffee courses are canceled until December. — Cafe/roastery owner, Germany

The impact is still unfolding. Uganda has introduced a number of lock-down measures that are already impacting the poorest of the poor, the people with whom we work. Movements have been stopped, public and private transport cancelled. The motorbike riders are out of work, people in the villages where we work can’t get to health centers for safe delivery of babies, treatment of other illnesses. Although exports of goods are still permitted (and we still have committed customers at the moment in the US/UK/Korea for which we are so thankful), processing factories—mills, warehouses, etc—are heavily restricted. This is already leading to delays to orders. We hope it doesn’t lead to cancellations.

As a project we’ve always committed to pay our farmers cash on delivery, so we’re grateful that all our payments on the mountain are cleared. Our farmers and workers have all been paid for the season. However, as a project we absolutely now rely on our buyers coming through so that we can receive payments for the coffee and clear our business loans… We’re really hoping that we can get our orders out, that we can agree terms with our buyers that help them out, which allow us to support our farmers at a time when they need us most. — Director of a Producer Organization, Uganda

In New Zealand, all cafes, restaurants, retail shops, etc. are completely closed. We are primarily a wholesale coffee supplier direct to cafes, we don’t supply mainstream supermarkets, only a few boutiques. We do have a web store for direct to consumer sales but the lockdown restrictions stopped us from offering coffee online too, as roasters were only able to continue supply to essential supermarkets, not to home drinkers. Thankfully the online sales restriction was lifted after 9 days of shutdown, so we at least have that now. But volume wise, we are doing 90-95% less than we usually do, as almost our entire customer base is closed down. The lockdown is scheduled for 4 weeks, depending on the situation it may get extended. Even when it is lifted we will likely have a period of non-essential closures, takeaway only etc. Our borders will probably remain closed or essentially closed for months to come meaning next to no tourism (a huge industry in our country) so less coffee drinkers around in general. And it is likely that a lot of our wholesale customers may not reopen after this.

For what it’s worth I am completely supportive of the shutdown and after 12 days it appears to be effective, the curve is flattening. But it undoubtedly has a heavy impact on hospitality that will be hard to recover from.

My workplace as a result of the pandemic has introduced distancing practices in and stepped up general hygiene. Anyone who can work at home, is. As a result of the low sales volumes and general slow down of work, a lot of my colleagues have been placed on discretionary leave, being paid the minimum government subsidy until nationally we return to “alert level 2” (there’s a 4 step alert system, we’re in level 4 now). Nobody has been laid off, yet. — Head Roaster, New Zealand

Minimally. Panama is in total lockdown, agriculture exempted. Most of our coffee is sold to Asia, who continues to buy. Main problem is shipping logistics, especially via air. — Producer/exporter, Panama

In Jakarta, our government has not required us to do a complete lockdown. We are still allowed to operate but we only have one location purely for takeaways. We used to have three stores. Sales have dropped around 80% and it’s tough. We have put some of our recent hires on unpaid leave… hoping this will end soon. — Cafe owner, Indonesia

How has the pandemic impacted your job?

I’ve personally accepted more responsibility, since we’re down to a skeleton crew and the acting manager isn’t setting foot in the cafe because he doesn’t have insurance and he’s scared. Most days are either really busy or dead in the water. The days that we’re busy I make astoundingly good tips. Every day I wonder if it will be the last before the government shuts all of the restaurants down. — Barista/manager, United States

As a founder you wear all the hats in the business anyway so day to day hasn’t changed too much except now absolutely everything is done from my laptop except for packing all the online orders. — Founder of a cold brew coffee company, United Kingdom

For many small exporters, to finance one container requires quite a bit of financial muscle, not to mention the hefty interest rates from banks and/or private lenders. Because of the world-wide stay-at-home effort, roasters aren’t stocking up on green because of the uncertainty and consumers aren’t going out to coffee shops and restaurants to drink their coffee, which is reducing consumption. Once the consumer stops spending, the roaster slows down production, the importer starts sitting on green, and well, the exporter has to scramble to find a quick solution to stay afloat and continue to carry the loans until payment can be made from the importer/roaster. By holding up cash-flow, exporters will not be able to purchase as much coffee as projected, affecting the farmer who will have to sell to the co-op and be subject to the market price. The reduction in demand that is expected for 2nd and 3rd quarters will also have an affect on the quantity of coffee being purchased at specialty prices.

There is also a worry of a shortage of pickers for this harvest season for two reasons; pickers don’t want to leave home and risk getting infected while away from home and two, local governments don’t want pickers from other regions coming in to their regions potentially carrying the virus. This has prompted some local governments to start campaigns to hire locals to pick coffee, offering guaranteed medical coverage against the virus and other subsidies. — Importer/exporter, Colombia

Our management made the right decision to close the coffee house completely, and not work “to-go”, because even the slightest risk is a risk for all of us. — Barista, Russia

Sales have dropped a lot. Also forecasting has stopped as no roaster wants to take a long term guess. This is impacting how we can forecast purchases at origin as well. — Green coffee buyer, Australia

It’s gone for now! I’ve worked in the coffee industry since I was 18, I’m 25 now. It’s been my career aspiration to work in a coffee roastery. Eight months into my dream job and it’s been snatched away from me. I was also training for the Brewers cup, hours of training put in with a coffee that won’t make it to the national stage. — Production assistant/account manager, Ireland

What’s your life like right now?

I’m enjoying myself at home, trying to work on creative projects, suddenly needing to buy way more whole bean than I normally would. I visited my store yesterday to say hello to everyone, and I’m glad I’m not working through this time. The job right now simply isn’t what I was hired for, or what I had hired staff for, and although I know regulars keep showing up and the working staff are nothing but positive, I know I couldn’t suspend my fear and completely alter our operations without having an eventual breakdown. Sometimes I worry that I made the wrong choice, that I turned my back on a great company and wonderful coworkers, but this is far bigger than me, than any of us individually, and I have to remind myself that despite the uncertainty, staying home is the likely the best thing I can do for everyone in my community. — Barista/manager, Canada

Working from home and waiting for funding from the government so that I won’t have to shut down altogether. — Cafe owner, Brazil

It is better but still we hope that we will overcome it soon because still we are making just 50% of our regular numbers. — Cafe owner, Czech Republic

My wife and I run our cafe, where we have around 11 employees. The future is just uncertain. We were one of the first coffee roasters in Kazakhstan, and we have been here for the past eight years watching the culture grow. And now I’m scared we will have to start all over. — Cafe/roastery owner, Kazakhstan

My life is very precarious. I have expenses without any return. I am limited in practicing my profession, if not for video lessons to keep in touch with the community. How it will return to normal is my doubt. Our profession is at risk. — Barista, Italy

Filled with anxiety of no income but relaxing spending time with loved ones at home. — Head of coffee, South Africa

My life is a series of zoom calls, FaceTime, daily anxiety, and planning my alternate idea of a career that doesn’t rely on the global economy. I’ve been knitting a lot and filming crafting videos. — Roasting operations manager, United Kingdom

Boring and stressful. — Cafe owner, Trinidad

I filed for unemployment but with little clarity as to what the stimulus package is actually sending, my partner (also a barista) and I are making about a third of our wages from unemployment leaving our livelihood up in the air with rent and other bills still coming. We are also losing our health insurance through our full-time jobs. — Barista, United States

Additional Reporting

Poll results: Baristas 

Poll results: Coffee consumption

Voices of baristas

Voices of cafe owners

Voices of importers 

All COVID-19 coverage on Sprudge. 

Zac Cadwalader is the managing editor at Sprudge Media Network and a staff writer based in Dallas. Read more Zac Cadwalader on Sprudge.

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[interblag-blog]

An Announcement from Supreme Leader and Dictator for the Day, Oliver Daniel

My fellow Canadians,

In recent months, the integrity of the democratic election process has come into question. It seems that with every passing day, a new allegation of interference, whether interior or foreign, surfaces regarding the recent United States federal election. For those who are not aware, this includes allegations that Russian operatives interfered with the election in order to ensure the election of President Donald Trump. It is currently unknown at this time whether or not these allegations are true, and if they are, the extent of their involvement.

In a representative government such as ours, voting is among the most powerful sources of political agency available to the average Canadian. We can vote for people who represent our communities; our values; our hopes for the future. Furthermore, we can refuse to re-elect incumbents who have failed to follow through on their promises. These elected officials also vote: on bills, plans, and new legislations that affect each and every one of us. We trust these people to represent us on a municipal, provincial, and federal scale. We must also, then, trust the centuries-old process that we use to elevate them into office.

It is deeply troubling that there is even the slightest reason to suspect the election process itself. By definition, ballots require secrecy and anonymity. This is a bedrock of democracy and therefore cannot, and will not, be changed. However, if there is some external interference, there is therefore no way of identifying a culprit. In light of recent events, it is clear that the current system's technology has been outstripped by those with malicious intent. We must consider another way of maintaining the security and integrity of our ballots.

However, there is a gleam of light in the most unlikely of places: Bitcoin and other so-called 'cryptocurrencies'. Transactions made with these currencies are recorded in what is known as the 'blockchain'. By the power vested in me as Dictator for the Day, I hereby decree that henceforth, all Canadian elections will be powered by the blockchain. I will now discuss the reasoning behind this decision, and how it will benefit all of us.

For this address, I will digress on the majority of the details of the blockchain; rest assured that they will be described in full in the coming legislation. However, there are a few things you should know. A blockchain is a publicly-available ledger of information, which proves integrity using complex mathematical techniques. As long as they have a computer or smartphone of some kind, anybody can keep and maintain their own copy of the blockchain.

In order to rewrite history and falsify this record, a malicious party would need to employ more than half of all the computing power used to maintain the blockchain. Fortunately, as I mentioned earlier, anybody – from any city, any province, even any country – can contribute their computing power to combat this. The more power involved in this process, the greater the integrity becomes. In a way, anyone can become a scrutineer of our elections, and an upholder of our democracy.

How will the new process work? Firstly, Canadians will be able to download a mobile application, currently in development, during election periods. Those who do not have mobile phones will, of course, have access to voting stations as before. Using information that is already unique to each citizen, every citizen will recieve a completely unique, randomized numerical identity, called a 'hash', to represent their vote on the blockchain. Do note that the identification does not work in the inverse: given a hash, neither the government nor the most malicious hacker can determine the citizen associated with it without thousands of years' worth of computation. Then, during elections, Canadians can log into their accounts – or visit the polls – and cast their ballot. Additionally, they can change their ballot any time up until election day.

The advantages of this are threefold. First, it will maximize convenience for Canadians who are unable to access voting stations during election day, increasing voter representation. Second, it will allow voters to change their vote after casting in response to extenuating circumstances. Third, it will allow the votes to be counted instantly and accurately.

My fellow Canadians, we must lead the way into the future. A democracy in the twenty-first century cannot survive using ancient methods. We shall move our vote to the blockchain, and our country into the forefront of the technological revolution.