#Alexandria Bollier

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Miss Universe Philippines 2023 Swimsuit Challenge Part 1

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

In 2018, now-Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley shocked the political world by unseating 20-year incumbents in their Democratic primaries. And this year, the trend continued with progressives Marie Newman, Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush winning their own upsets against long-serving congressmen.1

Thanks to an increasingly powerful progressive campaign apparatus, there’s no question that the left is now an established player in the Democratic Party. But is it strong enough to rival the political muscle of the party establishment?

To find out, FiveThirtyEight has once again tracked hundreds of endorsements in every Senate, House and governor primary completed so far this year (through Aug. 18). We looked at the win-loss records of the endorsees of eight key Democratic influencers: progressive groups Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee; progressive figures Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders; and two arms of the national Democratic Party, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.2 The result is the most complete picture yet of which wing of the party is doing better at the ballot box.

And while the progressive upsets may have grabbed all the headlines, the numbers say the party establishment is still king of the hill. Of the 217 Democratic incumbents who ran in the primaries we analyzed, 214 won or advanced to the general election.3 Granted, that includes 19 incumbents — such as Reps. Ilhan Omar, Katie Porter, Rashida Tlaib and Ocasio-Cortez herself — who were supported by one or more of the six progressive endorsers we’re tracking. But in the 17 primaries where progressives (candidates endorsed by at least one of these six entities) went up against an incumbent, the progressive-backed candidate lost 14 times. (Newman, Bowman and Bush were the only exceptions.)

Most progressive challengers lost to incumbents

How candidates endorsed by Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Sanders or Rep. Ocasio-Cortez have fared against incumbents in Democratic primaries for Senate, House and governor, through Aug. 18, 2020

Endorsed by … Candidate Race Indiv. J. Dems Our Rev. PCCC Sanders AOC Result Eva Putzova AZ-01 ✓ Lost Robert Emmons Jr. IL-01 ✓ Lost Marie Newman IL-03 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Won Rachel Ventura IL-11 ✓ Lost Jill Carter MD-07 ✓ Lost Cori Bush MO-01 ✓ ✓ ✓ Won Arati Kreibich NJ-05 ✓ ✓ ✓ Lost Melanie D’Arrigo NY-03 ✓ Lost Adem Bunkeddeko NY-09 ✓ Lost Jamaal Bowman NY-16 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Won Morgan Harper OH-03 ✓ ✓ ✓ Lost Albert Lee OR-03 ✓ Lost Mark Gamba OR-05 ✓ Lost Keeda Haynes TN-05 ✓ ✓ ✓ Lost Jessica Cisneros TX-28 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Lost Jason Call WA-02 ✓ Lost Rebecca Parson WA-06 ✓ Lost

Some candidates were endorsed by both progressive and party establishment organizations.

Sources: Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, PCCC, Twitter, Courage to Change PAC, Associated Press

In primaries where there wasn’t an incumbent on the ballot, progressives did better: 22 wins4 (including Mondaire Jones in New York and Kara Eastman in Nebraska) to 10 losses (including Charles Booker in Kentucky). That’s a 69 percent win rate.

Progressives are winning lots of open primaries

How candidates endorsed by Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Sanders or Rep. Ocasio-Cortez have fared in Democratic primaries for Senate, House and governor where no incumbent was running, through Aug. 18, 2020

Endorsed by … Candidate Race Indiv. J. Dems Our Rev. PCCC Sanders AOC Result Christy Smith CA-25 ✓ Advanced Ammar Campa-Najjar CA-50 ✓ Advanced Georgette Gómez CA-53 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Advanced Andrew Romanoff CO Sen. ✓ Lost Jillian Freeland CO-05 ✓ Won Nabilah Islam GA-07 ✓ ✓ Lost Kai Kahele HI-02 ✓ Won J.D. Scholten IA-04 ✓ Won Paulette Jordan ID Sen. ✓ Won Jim Harper IN-01 ✓ Lost E. Thomasina Marsili IN-08 ✓ Won Charles Booker KY Sen. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Lost Hank Linderman KY-02 ✓ Won Betsy Sweet ME Sen. ✓ ✓ Lost Jon Hoadley MI-06 ✓ Won Tom Winter MT-AL ✓ Lost Kara Eastman NE-02 ✓ ✓ ✓ Won Ben Ray Luján NM Sen. ✓ Won Teresa Leger Fernandez NM-03 ✓ Won Samelys López NY-15 ✓ ✓ ✓ Lost Mondaire Jones NY-17 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Won Dana Balter NY-24 ✓ ✓ Won Daniel Kilgore OH-15 ✓ Lost Renee Hoyos TN-02 ✓ Won Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez TX Sen. ✓ Lost Mike Siegel TX-10 ✓ ✓ ✓ Won Candace Valenzuela TX-24 ✓ Won David Zuckerman VT gov. ✓ ✓ Won Beth Doglio WA-10 ✓ ✓ Advanced Amanda Stuck WI-08 ✓ Won Stephen Smith WV gov. ✓ ✓ Lost Paula Jean Swearengin WV Sen. ✓ Won

In California and Washington primaries, the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election. Some candidates were endorsed by both progressive and party establishment organizations.

Sources: Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, PCCC, Twitter, Courage to Change PAC, Associated Press

However, the party establishment had even more success: 30 of the 31 candidates (97 percent) whom the DSCC and DCCC supported in incumbent-less primaries advanced to the general election. The only exception was Senate candidate James Mackler in Tennessee. Notably, Mackler was the first DSCC-endorsed candidate to lose a primary since 2010.5

The party decides

How candidates supported by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee or Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have fared in Democratic primaries for Senate, House and governor where no incumbent was running, through Aug. 18, 2020

Candidate Race Result Al Gross AK Sen. Won Alyse Galvin AK-AL Won Mark Kelly AZ Sen. Won Hiral Tipirneni AZ-06 Won Christy Smith CA-25 Advanced John Hickenlooper CO Sen. Won Margaret Good FL-16 Won Theresa Greenfield IA Sen. Won Rita Hart IA-02 Won Betsy Dirksen Londrigan IL-13 Won Christina Hale IN-05 Won Barbara Bollier KS Sen. Won Michelle De La Isla KS-02 Won Amy McGrath KY Sen. Won Sara Gideon ME Sen. Won Hillary Scholten MI-03 Won Jon Hoadley MI-06 Won Dan Feehan MN-01 Won Jill Schupp MO-02 Won Mike Espy MS Sen. Won Kathleen Williams MT-AL Won Cal Cunningham NC Sen. Won Ben Ray Luján NM Sen. Won Jackie Gordon NY-02 Won Eugene DePasquale PA-10 Won Jaime Harrison SC Sen. Won James Mackler TN Sen. Lost MJ Hegar TX Sen. Won Wendy Davis TX-21 Won Gina Ortiz Jones TX-23 Won Carolyn Long WA-03 Advanced

In California and Washington primaries, the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election. Some candidates were endorsed by both progressive and party establishment organizations.

Sources: DSCC, DCCC, Associated Press

These findings — that Democratic voters are generally voting for establishment candidates over insurgents — match what we saw in 2018. But that doesn’t mean progressive groups haven’t made progress in the last two years. They’ve just changed their strategy. Instead of endorsing dozens of candidates like they did in 2018, progressive groups are picking their battles more carefully. For instance, Justice Democrats has endorsed just three candidates in incumbent-less primaries this year, but two of them won.

Endorsing fewer candidates is part of a longer-term approach as the group’s political apparatus has grown more sophisticated. As Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats, told HuffPost, “We’ve been intentional about building infrastructure and an ecosystem that can take on decades worth of the establishment’s.” This means withholding support from candidates whose values may match the organization’s but who are running in districts where challengers face long odds or where unseating the incumbent in a primary could hand the seat to the GOP in the general.

Certain progressive endorsers are also having more success this cycle. Sanders has a 75 percent win rate in incumbent-less primaries so far this cycle (6 for 8), up from 56 percent (5 for 9) around this point in 2018. And the PCCC has an 83 percent win rate (10 for 12), whereas two years ago it was 67 percent (10 for 15). This could reflect that these endorsers (and their ideas) enjoy more clout in 2020 than they did in 2018 — or it could just mean they’ve become savvier in whom they endorse.

All told, the progressive group with the best win rate so far in primaries without an incumbent is Indivisible; they’ve endorsed 10 candidates in those races, and nine of them have advanced. Our Revolution has the worst win rate of the progressive endorsers we looked at, but they’ve also backed more candidates than the other groups; of the 14 candidates they endorsed, five have advanced to the general. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Courage for Change PAC has a win rate of 50 percent (4 for 8).

Which progressive endorser has the best record?

How candidates endorsed by six progressive figures and groups have fared in Democratic primaries for Senate, House and governor where no incumbent was running, through Aug. 18, 2020

num. endorsed endorsees who won percent Indivisible 10 9 90% PCCC 12 10 83 Sen. Sanders 8 6 75 Justice Dems 3 2 67 Rep. Ocasio-Cortez 8 4 50 Our Revolution 14 5 36

Some candidates were endorsed by both progressive and party establishment organizations.

Sources: Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, PCCC, Twitter, Courage to Change PAC, Associated Press

Of course, part of the difficulty here is that these groups are also endorsing candidates who are challenging incumbents, and incumbency, while not necessarily as potent as it once was, is still a pretty powerful force in American politics.6 However, some groups we analyzed were willing to take the risk. In fact, Justice Democrats endorsed more candidates running against incumbents (five) than they did candidates in primaries without incumbents (three), reflecting their status as one of the groups most urgently insisting upon drastic change in the halls of Congress. And, notably, their challengers won three of those races against incumbents — an extremely impressive win rate considering how rarely incumbents lose overall.

Given Justice Democrats’ success this cycle, Democratic incumbents should probably be expecting more progressive challengers in 2022: After the 2018 midterms and the success of candidates like Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley, liberal groups made clear their intention to continue to target incumbent Democrats whose records hadn’t kept pace with their districts’ politics, especially in places where demographic changes favored progressives. Notably, this was Newman’s second challenge against incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski in Illinois’s 3rd District — in 2018, Lipinski won by about 2,000 votes. So, long term, the strategy of challenging incumbents could pay dividends for the left.

[normanblogs]

Miss Universe Philippines 2023: Her Story Part 1

Agusan del Norte – Jannarie Zarzoso Aklan – Avery Sucgang Bacolod – Jan Marie Bordon Bacoor – Alexandria Bollier

[patriotsnet]

How Many Seats Do Republicans Need To Keep The House

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-seats-do-republicans-need-to-keep-the-house/

How Many Seats Do Republicans Need To Keep The House

Gop Sees Path To House Majority In 2022

Republicans returned to the Capitol this week with a spring in their step after they defied expectations and gained House seats on Election Day, putting a GOP majority within their grasp for 2022.

GOP lawmakers rewarded House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyDonald TrumpPollsters confront tough survey landscape after 2020 flubsThe Memo: Will DeSantis’s star fall as Florida COVID numbers rise?Legal experts welcome sanctions of pro-Trump lawyers, say more neededMORE out of office but backed Republican candidates in the House and Senate.

It was a stamp of approval for divided government and gave Republicans a sense of momentum in their goal to recapture the lower chamber two years from now in the midterm elections, when the party that controls the White House historically loses seats in Congress.

The GOP has flipped nearly a dozen seats with a handful of Republican candidates leading in uncalled races. And while Republicans will fall short of the 17 seats needed to win back the House this cycle, Democrats will be holding the thinnest majority since World War II. 

And we’ve already heard from some great candidates in places where we just came up short.

GOP leaders said they are cautiously optimistic about their odds in 2022, noting that while they feel good about their current position, they will still need to fight to take back the majority.

Scott Wong contributed. Updated at 4:12 p.m.

Graham Claims He’s ‘never Been Challenged Like This’ After Senate Victory

Democrats largely focused their campaigns on protecting the Affordable Care Act and stepping up efforts to combat the coronavirus. Republicans mostly focused on the economy and preventing a Democratic-led Senate that could pursue progressive legislation in a potential Biden presidency.

Two top Republicans Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. John Cornyn of Texas will be re-elected, NBC News projects. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V., Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., will be re-elected, NBC News projects. All were heavily favored.

Republicans held open seats in Wyoming and Kansas with victories by their candidates Cynthia Lummis and Roger Marshall, respectively, according to NBC News projections.

And Democrat Ben Ray Lujan won an open seat in New Mexico, keeping the state for Democrats.

Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder

Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.

President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.

The Brennan Center has found that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.

Read more:

Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.

Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.

Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.

House Districts That Flipped In 2018 Among Those To Keep Watching

New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District: Rep. Jeff Van Drew has arguably one of the most fascinating House races of this cycle. A freshman, the Republican is in a tight race against Democrat Amy Kennedy, whose family is a political dynasty. 

Van Drew switched from the Democratic Party to join Republicans during Trump’s impeachment trial. The move was jarring given that Van Drew helped flip the district, which Trump won by nearly 5 points, over to Democrats. 

His switch garnered praise from Trump, who invited him to the White House where Van Drew promised Trump his “undying support.”

More:How Jeff Van Drew went from being a Democrat to speaking at the RNC

California’s 21st Congressional District: Rep. TJ Cox, a freshman Democrat, is in a rematch against Republican David Valadao. 

The pair went head-to-head in 2018, and Cox came out on top, defeating Valadao by 862 votes. Cox faces Valadao again in the aftermath of scandals over business dealings and unpaid federal taxes.  

The district was won by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by double-digit margins. 

More:Democrats, White House spent months bickering over a coronavirus aid bill that never happened. Will it affect voters at the ballot box?

New York’s 11th Congressional District: Rep. Max Rose faces a bitter race against Republican Nicole Malliotakis  a campaign that has included an assortment of curses, accusations of lying and name drops of New York City Mayor Bill deBlasio, who is unpopular in the district. 

Democrats Keep House Majority But ‘republicans Defied The Odds’

The Democrats could wind up with the slimmest House majority in 20 years.

Nancy Pelosi praises Democrats for retaining the House majority

The Democrats will keep their majority in the House of Representatives, but after all the votes are counted, they could wind up with the slimmest House majority in 20 years.

The Democrats gained a majority in the House following the 2018 election in which they won 41 seats. This was the largest gain for the political party since the 1974 election, in which they gained 49.

Some of the popular freshman Democrats who came into office in 2018, including New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar, have been elected for a second term.

But Republicans appear set to make some gains, winning nearly every tossup and picking up at least six seats based on calls of races by The Associated Press.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted Wednesday morning, “Republicans defied the odds and grew our party last night.”

He also tweeted to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, “You’ve been put on notice.”

Among the Republican victories is Marjorie Taylor Greene, who won Georgia’s conservative 14th Congressional District after publicly supporting the fringe conspiracy theory known as QAnon.

In videos unearthed by POLITICO, Greene is also heard spouting racist, Islamophobic and sexist views.

President Donald Trump has fully embraced Greene, calling her a “future Republican star” after she won her primary.

What Are The Odds That Republicans Keep Control Of Congress

Republicans donât exactly have the best odds of retaining control of Congress. According to PolitiFact, the party of the current president usually loses seatsin the midterm elections. This year, thatâs the Republican Party. The biggest question will be whether they lose enough seats for control of Congress to pass into Democratic hands.

Republicans Are Expected To Gain Seats In Redrawn 2022 Congressional Maps But Democrats Could Be Worse Off

U.S. Census data released Monday will shift political power in Congress, reapportioning two House seats to Texas and one each to Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, Colorado, and Montana and stripping a seat from California , New York , Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia. Florida, Texas, and Arizona each controlled entirely by Republicans had been expecting to pick up an additional seat.

“On balance, I think this reapportionment offers a small boost for Republicans, but the bigger boost is likely to come from how Republicans draw these seats in Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia,” the Cook Political Report‘s Dave Wasserman tells Axios. “Reapportionment itself means little compared to the redistricting fights to come.” It won’t exactly be a level playing field.

“Republicans control the redistricting process in far more states than do Democrats, because of GOP dominance in down-ballot elections,”The New York Times reports. “Democrats, meanwhile, have shifted redistricting decisions in states where they have controlled the government such as California, Colorado, and Virginia to independent commissions intended to create fair maps.”

House seats broken down by final redistricting authority :

– Republican: 187

Dave Wasserman April 26, 2021

More stories from theweek.com

Four Flips For Democrats One For Republicans

Going into the election, the Democrats held 47 seats in the U.S. Senate while the Republicans held 53.

The Democrats have succeeded in flipping four seats: in Colorado, where former Governor John Hickenlooper easily ousted incumbent Cory Gardner, in Arizona, where former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated incumbent Martha McSally, and in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue.

The Republicans have wrested back one previously Democratic seat in Alabama, where one-term incumbent Doug Jones was emphatically denied a second term by Tommy Tuberville, a former college head football coach, most recently at the University of Cincinnati.

Outgoing freshman Sens. Jones and Gardner were both considered vulnerable, as each was elected with less than 50% of the vote in 2018.

Republican Thom Tilliss victory over Cal Cunningham in North Carolinaby less than 2 percentage points according to the North Carolina Secretary of States latest tallyis one of several close Senate races that were not called until after election night. In addition to the seats from Georgia, close races also include the victories of incumbent senators Gary Peters and Susan Collins , which were not called until Nov. 4.

Pelosi Says American People Have Made Their Choice Clear In Voting For Biden

 In a letter to her Democratic colleagues in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Biden would be elected president, even though several states have yet to be called.

“The American people have made their choice clear at the ballot box, and are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House,” Pelosi said.

She also praised House Democrats for keeping their majority, saying that the House will “now have the opportunity to deliver extraordinary progress.” However, she only obliquely referenced the heavy losses by several freshmen Democrats who had flipped red seats.

“Though it was a challenging election, all of our candidates both Frontline and Red to Blue made us proud,” Pelosi said.

Why Has Bidens Approval Rating Fallen

On the other hand, the fact that the size of the House hasnt increased in more than a century is a real problem for our democracy. For starters, there is an ever wider gulf between Americans and their representatives, as the average number of people represented in a district has more than tripled, from about 210,000 in 1910 to about 760,000 in 2020. Moreover, some states are severely over- and underrepresented as a result.

Increasing the size of the House would not resolve all the challenges facing the U.S., as any expansion would involve trade-offs. For instance, adding representatives could decrease day-to-day legislative efficiency, and it would undoubtedly increase the size of the federal government. Yet expanding the House is one of the more straightforward reforms that leaders in Washington could pursue in our era of polarized politics. The size of the House is determined by statute, not the Constitution, meaning Congress could pass a law to change it. 

Its worth exploring, then, whether 435 is still an appropriate number of House members to represent our sprawling, diverse nation. Whether Congress will take up this issue anytime soon is another question entirely, but heres how we got stuck at 435 in the first place and what it would mean if we increased that number.

Democrats Also Fell Short On Many Offensive Targets

House Democrats set out on an ambitious agenda to flip many Republican-controlled seats, particularly in Texas and in many suburban districts around the country.

But Democrats have failed, so far, to flip a single GOP-held seat other than Georgia’s 7th Congressional District, located in the Atlanta suurbs, and two North Carolina seats that they were virtually guaranteed to flip because of court-ordered redistricting, according to DDHQ projections. 

Democrats will not pick up competitive US House seats in Texas’ 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, or 24th congressional districts, DDHQ projected.

While Biden is projected to carry Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District’s sole Electoral College vote, the Democratic candidate Kara Eastman failed in her second bid to unseat the district’s congressional representative, Don Bacon, in this Omaha-based seat.

Also in the Midwest, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won reelection in her district located in suburban St. Louis, over the Democratic candidate Jill Schupp. The Republican Victoria Spartz defeated the Democrat Christina Hale in the open race for Indiana’s 5th District, a wealthy seat in suburban Indianapolis that Democrats saw as a possible pickup opportunity.

In Michigan, the Republican Peter Meijer defeated the Democrat Hillary Scholten to succeed the retiring Rep. Justin Amash. And GOP Rep. Steve Chabot held off a challenge from the Democrat Kate Schroder in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, located in the Cincinnati area.

Collins Says Gideon Called To Concede

Senator Susan Collins of Maine told supporters on Wednesday that her Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, had called her to concede the race. Without taking Collins’ seat, Democrats have little change of claiming the Senate majority. 

“I have news for everyone. I just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race,” Collins told supporters on Wednesday afternoon.

Collins, one of the more moderate members of Senate, was considered particularly vulnerable this year. If she had received under 50% of the vote, the race would have proceeded to a runoff, under Maine’s system of ranked-choice voting.

Gideon significantly outraised Collins, and hit the senator repeatedly for voting to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. 

Cbs News Projects Mitch Mcconnell Wins Senate Race In Kentucky

 CBS News projects that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has won his reelection race. McConnell was challenged by Democrat Amy McGrath, who ran unsuccessfully for a House seat two years ago.

CBS News projects Mitch McConnell wins reelection in Kentucky. https://t.co/T6GArkvEPf

CBS News November 4, 2020

McGrath had won national attention and significant fundraising when she entered the race, but she had to withstand a bruising primary challenge from the left. After defeating Charles Booker in the primary, McGrath sustained a fundraising advantage over McConnell in the closing months of the race, but was unable to translate those funds into in-person support.

CBS News also projects that New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, has won reelection.

How Republicans Pulled Off A Big Upset And Nearly Took Back The House

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.

Pelosi Says It Doesn’t Matter Right Now If She’ll Seek Another Term As Speaker Beyond 2022

 In a press call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down a question about whether this upcoming term would be her last as speaker, calling it the “least important question you could ask today.” She added that “the fate of our nation, the soul of the nation” is at stake in the election.

“Elections are about the future,” Pelosi said. “One of these days I’ll let you know what my plans are, when it is appropriate and when it matters. It doesn’t matter right now.”

After the 2018 election, Pelosi agreed to term limits on Democratic leaders that would prevent her from serving as speaker beyond 2022.

Races That Have Been Called

A pair of freshmen Democrats representing Miami-Dade County narrowly lost their seats Tuesday two years after winning GOP seats in South Florida.

Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who ousted a GOP incumbent two years ago, found herself on the losing end Tuesday night in Florida’s 26th Congressional District. Rep. Donna Shalala, who won an open seat in 2018, lost in a rematch in the 27th Congressional District to the Republican she beat two years ago.

Broadcast journalist María Elvira Salazar unseated Shalala while Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez defeated Mucarsel-Powell in an area that has become one of swingiest of Florida.

Trumps message that electing Democrats would lead to socialism seemed to resonate in this South Florida district where Cuban Americans, many who fled Fidel Castros authoritarian regime, flocked to Trump. Salazar and Gimenez are Cuban American.

Today was a rejection of extremism. Today was a rejection of partisanship. Today was a rejection of socialism and the evils of socialism and communism, Gimenez said at a victory party Tuesday night. This country needs to start to work together because we have threats from outside and inside and for us to keep fighting, it makes no sense whatsoever.

New York’s 16th Congressional District: Jamaal Bowman won the race for New York’s 16th Congressional District, adding a new voice to the liberal wing of the party in the 117th Congress. 

Who is Madison Cawthorn? RNC speaker becomes youngest member of Congress

Republicans Are Well Positioned To Take The House In 2022

Although we dont yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party thats not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election .

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020s election at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The recent history of midterms in a Democratic presidents first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clintons election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.

The Winding Road To Democratic Control

Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .

But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.

Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.

The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.

Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:

Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.

Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects

WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain control of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.

Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was declared by NBC News as the apparent winner.

Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.

Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.

Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the party’s first gain.

Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.

In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it “too early to call.”

Gop Holds Key Seats In Battle For Majority As Ernst Cornyn And Graham All Win; Democrat Kelly Unseats Incumbent Mcsally In Arizona

WASHINGTONRepublicans scored key Senate victories in Tuesdays elections, with wins in Iowa and Alabama, while Democrats flipped two seats, with former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper unseating incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, toppling Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona, the Associated Press projected.

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, AP projected that Iowas incumbent GOP Sen. Joni Ernst had defeated Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, a Des Moines businesswoman. Republicans picked up a seat by ousting Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in deep red Alabama, with Tommy Tuberville, the Republican candidate and former Auburn head football coach, winning.

Control of the chamber still remains in doubt as a number of other GOP-held races hang in the balance. Democrats now have a net gain of one seat. They need to gain three seats to win a majority if Democrat Joe Biden wins the White House or four if President Trump wins re-election.

Everything has to go right at this point in order for Democrats to have what is a very small shot to win the majority, said Jessica Taylor, who follows Senate races for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan outlet that tracks congressional races.

The races in North Carolina and Georgia were too close to call, and the outcomes in Michigan and Maine were uncertain. The Democrats opportunities to pick off seats dwindled as the vote counting deepened.