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365footballorg-blog · 7 years ago

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Armchair Analyst: Your complete guide to the 9-game Week 3 slate

March 16, 201811:51AM EDT

And now for Week 2, the final weekend of winter. Let’s take a list at the whole thing:

SATURDAY SLATE

D.C. United vs. Houston (1:30 pm ET; TV & streaming info): D.C. have two games between now and mid-July. This is one of them, and it’ll be played before 5,500 fans a few miles north of Washington at the Maryland SoccerPlex. So yeah, expect it to have kind of a weird feeling and a super-intimate look.

And expect – or hope, maybe? – D.C. to nail their defensive rotations better than they did in Week 2’s 3-1 loss at Atlanta United, in which they got cut up by allowing the Five Stripes to get out in transition. Much of the damage was self-inflicted from a D.C. point of view:

Armchair Analyst: Nobody loves running lanes the way Atlanta United loves running lanes. DC played themselves. pic.twitter.com/PkHhrnoi5d

— Matthew Doyle (@MattDoyle76) March 11, 2018

I’m not sure if it’s a case of United going out there in the wrong formation (they’ve been using a 4-1-4-1, which seems to have put too much pressure on new d-mid Junior Moreno) or the players not having clear enough roles. The play above suggests it’s a little of both.

Whatever happens, they can’t get caught doing the same stuff against Houston, which are one of the few teams in this league who can run like Atlanta. Give Alberth Elis and Mauro Manotas lanes and they’ll scorch you like Tito Villalba and Josef Martinez did. Give Eric Alexander and Tomas Martinez time to pick their passes, and they’ll play Elis and the rest through.

I have decided, in spite of last weekend’s loss to Vancouver, that I think Houston are a Good Team™ that will mostly do good things.

Minnesota United vs. Chicago (2 pm ET; TV & streaming info): In my Week 2 wrap I wrote in some depth about Chicago’s game this past weekend, a 4-3 home loss to Sporting KC. The main emphasis was on how SKC’s previously invincible defense looked so vulnerable which means just flip it and you have a happy tale about the Fire generating a ton of chances, right? They switched to a sort of 4-4-2 in the second half and honest to god ripped Sporting apart more than any team since Cruz Azul three years ago.

It was a hell of an attacking performance. And it was coupled with a nightmare defensive showing, one in which they made the previously punchless Sporting attack look like world-beaters.

Here’s Chicago’s puzzle to solve: Even without a pure playmaker, they can generate a ton of possession and clearly can generate a ton of attack. The way they do this is by pushing both fullbacks – Matt Polster on the right, Brandon Vincent on the left – all the way into the attacking third. When it works, you get this:

But the gamble is that you can push the fullbacks up like that and not be wildly vulnerable on the flanks defensively, or can at least scramble well enough to put a pin in it.

That didn’t happen. After taking that 3-2 lead Chicago were repeatedly exposed on the flanks, and any time their central defenders were pulled out of the middle to try to stop the ball at speed, they got roasted.

Know who loves to attack down the flanks? That’d be Minnesota United, who’ve gone full Randolph and Mortimer Duke in terms of cornering the market on wingers, and who ripped up Orlando City’s fullbacks last weekend. Ethan Finlay got both goals and Miguel Ibarra was, for the second straight week, a game-changer off the bench. Even without the injuredKevin Molino they have the pieces and the approach to make it a long day in the 612 for Chicago.

Philadelphia vs. Columbus (2 pm ET; TV & streaming info): I didn’t write a ton about Philly after Week 1’s 2-0 win over the Revs for a couple of obvious reasons. First it was a home game against what I suspect will be one of the Eastern Conference’s basement-dwellers, and second is that the whole tenor of the game was irretrievably altered by the red card(s) C.J. Sapong was able to induce out of the New England backline.

We know Sapong, who had a goal and an assist and a red card drawn, and could’ve had two more of each, can do that. Sapong’s performance was in line with what he provided in 2017 and the Union, as they sometimes did last year, looked like a functional team capable of running the game through midfield while using their target forward as a fulcrum.

The question is obviously “Was that real?” Columbus are a more dynamic and organized team than the Revs and are one of four in the league to open the season with six points from two games. They do it the same way they’ve done it for the last four seasons: By controlling the game in midfield, switching play with long diagonals, and generating tap-ins for their center forward.

I’ll almost certainly have more to say about this one in Sunday’s column.

Montreal vs. Toronto FC (3 pm ET; CTV, TVAS, TSN4 in Canada — full TV & streaming info): We all know what Toronto’s about, right? The only real note here are that they went away from the 4-4-2 diamond and into the 3-5-2 for their legendary two-leg series against Tigres, and looked much better off for it. Could probably make another note that Jozy Altidore looked like he was running in mud for that second leg, and I wonder if it’d be wise to give him some rest in this one.

The Impact are a little bit more of a mystery for obvious reasons. There’s been a good deal of squad turnover, and while they’ve stayed with one formation (the 4-3-3), head coach Remi Garde has fiddled a bit with where he’s been drawing the line of confrontation. It seems like they’ve wanted to play deeper at the start and then slowly move up the field as they round into the game, but part of that might be due to game states – i.e., you’re not going to sit deep and just wait for things to unfold if you’re trying to claw back from a two-goal deficit.

And yeah, the Impact have had two-goal deficits in each of their first two games. The fact that they’ve put some real fear into both the ‘Caps and Crew SC despite that speaks well of their attack. Of course, they’ve generated that attack in part by taking insane risks with their fullbacks, especially right back Michael Petrasso.

Here is a map of Montreal’s aggregate positions for the match 3-2 loss at Columbus. Petrasso is No. 24, while wingers Jeisson Vargas (16) and Raheem Edwards (14) are just in front of him (click the “Average Position” tab):

That is one hell of an aggressive stance, even for a modern fullback. In large part it worked, as they got a pair of goals. In large part it didn’t, as Columbus snapped out of their coma in stoppage, went right at Montreal’s right side, and drew a penalty.

TFC aren’t dumb. They’ll exploit the hell out of that space if Montreal present it to them.

NYCFC vs. Orlando City (3:30 pm ET; Univision & Twitter — full TV & streaming info): NYCFC will play exactly how NYCFC have played from Day 1 under Patrick Vieira: A 4-3-3 that presses high, strings a ton of passes together, and generates great looks for the league’s best center forward. The Galaxy took them out of their rhythm a little bit in the second half of last weekend’s 2-1 NYCFC win, but that felt more like the hosts taking their foot off the gas a little bit than any sort of systemic issue.

There are systemic issues for the Purple Lions. The big one is that the defense still isn’t fixed and the attack can’t possess the ball enough to mitigate that flaw over the course of 90 minutes. The other big one is that they’re not generating enough in attack, as their expected goals per game of 1.3 is in the bottom quarter of the league.

Getting Sacha Kljestan into the lineup for the first time should help – he’s had some big performances in Yankee Stadium before, after all. But he’s only a partial solution to just half of what’s ailing Orlando City.

Atlanta United vs. Vancouver (7:30 pm ET; TSN2 — full TV & streaming info): So the ‘Caps are one of four teams in the league that have taken six points from two games, and they did so on the road last weekend at Houston – who, remember, I think are a Good Team™. Vancouver are unapologetic about their approach to road games: They go for the smash-and-grab.

As Farhan pointed out in that piece, this means they defend deep and rely upon their ability to scramble on the backline. They clear the ball a ton – more than any team in the league:

That’s 47, just from last game. If they’re going to get a result in Atlanta, they’ll have to do something similar.

As for the Five Stripes, Greg Garza made an interesting point after last weekend’s win, saying that it’s “lonelier” being a wingback in the 3-5-2 than a fullback in a back four. He’s right and it makes sense, and that is very obviously the area of worry from the hosts’ perspective.

Vancouver have shown in each of the two weeks that they’re devastating when allowed to counter up the flanks. Atlanta’s wingbacks were both pretty good last weekend, but any time the center backs have been asked to step out and make a play this season, they’ve gotten scorched.

Sporting KC vs. San Jose (8:30 pm ET; TV & streaming info): Way back in Week 1, after a 3-2 win over visiting MNUFC, Bobby Warshaw called San Jose “the league’s most innovative offense.” I’m gonna borrow part of his analysis:

The box midfield that results offers two advantages:

It gets numbers around the ball, while providing – with discipline – strong support in defense.

It’s uncommon in MLS.

Simply put, more numbers equals more options. As the old saying about possession goes, (passing) triangles are good; there are more triangles within four points of intersection than within three points. If you want to be a passing team, you need options around the ball.

How many times in the past five years has an MLS team had to prepare for a 4-2-2-2? Not many.

The other advantage (which Bobby touched upon) is that the Quakes play without a true, designated playmaker. That means there’s diverse options in terms of chance generation, and so in Week 1 four different San Jose players created at least three chances. Nobody’s funneling play through a No. 10 here – it’s all pass and move, often around and through Zone 14.

The downside is that even the best teams in the world at that sort of thing can run out of ideas, and that it’s a “weak link” approach as opposed to the No. 10-centric “strong link” approach. What happens if one of San Jose’s attackers is having an off day? The whole thing breaks down.

Minnesota had success late in that game at Avaya by bringing their midfield up a little bit higher and disrupting service from Florian Jungwirth and Anibal Godoy. Once those deeper two in the box were cut off from the more advanced two, San Jose weren’t innovative at all; rather, they were sloppy and vulnerable.

Real Salt Lake vs. New York Red Bulls (9 pm ET; TV & streaming info): Beyond anything else, RSL were vulnerable right up the gut against LAFC in last weekend’s 5-1 loss. And here’s what New York’s reserves did in their commanding 4-0 win over Portland:

Whether it’s the starters or a bunch of guys coming up from the USL, RBNY do the same things: Press the hell out of you and hit those third-line passes designed to cut multiple defenders out of the play. Their goal is to always get you scrambling, to pull you out of your spots and make you easy to split apart. In five games across all competitions this year they’ve outscored all comers 12-2, so it’s safe to say the plan is working.

RSL have to be smarter and more committed than they were last weekend. The fullbacks can’t afford to get pulled to the ball, the central midfielders can’t commit such sloppy turnovers, and the center backs need to be more front-foot and pro-active. LAFC’s attackers were all afforded way too much time and space to receive passes, and once that happens, goals happen.

SUNDAY’S GAME

FC Dallas vs. Seattle Sounders (5 pm ET; TV & streaming info): I honestly don’t know what we’ll see from Seattle, who were injured and slow and idea-less against a bad Chivas team in Wednesday’s dispiriting Concacaf Champions League loss. They had no real plan to advance the ball out of their own defensive third:

Forget about how bad Seattle has been on the attacking end. Here is the incomplete passes starting in their own defensive half. This is awful. pic.twitter.com/8U3egJ9Z8t

— Harrison Crow (@Harrison_Crow) March 15, 2018

Obviously injuries hurt, but Seattle had enough of their core group available up the spine of the team to produce a better outing. And look at what the Red Bulls did last week while juggling lineups. Missing seven starters is not enough of a reason for the catastrophe the Sounders produced in Guadalajara.

Dallas – who haven’t been right for nearly a year now, and maybe this isn’t just a prolonged slump; maybe it’s just who they are – have to love the idea of facing such a disorganized team, one that allows huge gaps in central midfield. Mauro Diaz (who has looked good) feasts when given that kind of time and space to operate in, and if he’s allowed to play the FCD wingers into acres behind the Sounders fullbacks, this could end up being a nightmare week for the Rave Green.

Of course “Will the Dallas forwards finish those chances?” remains an open question forever and ever.

One more thing to ponder:

Happy weekending, everybody.

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Armchair Analyst: Your complete guide to the 9-game Week 3 slate was originally published on 365 Football

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