#2023 Central Canada wildfires

[zaryathelaika]

Bad news for moose-dogs, bird-barking dogs, squirrel dogs, bay dogs and other kind of dogs out there. Especially since so many U.Sian are downwind of the wildfires up north.

Article is open access under Creative Commons Attribution – NonCommercial – NoDerivs (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). You should be safe to share the PDF in Facebook groups and such.

[mariacallous]

As global temperatures rapidly climb, humanity is seeing more and more of the disastrous effects scientists warned us about: fiercer heat waves, more intense wildfires, and heavier rain. The extremes of the past few months are but a preview of the ever-worsening pain we’ll endure if we don’t dramatically reduce carbon emissions.

“We have certainly had unusually large extremes in a number of parts of the world,” says climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the research group Berkeley Earth. “Global temperatures, sea surface temperatures—particularly the North Atlantic region—was sort of off the charts. Antarctic sea ice has been exceptionally low. If you had asked me what I expected to see this summer, it would not have been quite this coincidence of extremes.”

What’s made this summer so bad? For one thing, the base layer of global warming makes extreme summer heat both more common and more severe than it normally would be. Plus, this summer the Pacific Ocean transitioned from the cooler waters of La Niña into the warmer waters of El Niño, which goes on to influence Earth’s climate globally. 

Scientists are also investigating how Saharan dust has played a role: Normally, it blows over the Atlantic Ocean during the summer. But there’s been less of it in 2023, allowing more of the sun’s energy to heat the water. New shipping regulations have also cut down on sulfur emissions, and that may have similarly cleared the air. “Disentangling all the specific drivers of the extremes we are seeing this summer is going to take researchers some time,” says Hausfather.

But the 10 maps and graphs below vividly illustrate the global climatic chaos that’s unfolding now. 

1. Record Temperatures Around the World

This June was the hottest on record, according to NASA. Then July came around, clocking in as not only the hottest July, but the hottest month period since recordkeeping began in 1880. “What we're seeing is not just this year that records are being broken, but we're seeing these record-breaking events occur more frequently, which is what research has shown we should expect to happen in response to anthropogenic climate change in certain regions,” says University of Chicago climate scientist Tiffany Shaw.

In the map above, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows July’s unrelenting worldwide heat. The darkest red—around Mexico and Central America, northern Canada and Alaska, and equatorial Africa—shows areas that logged record-high July temperatures. Lighter red indicates an area was much warmer than average, while the faint red indicates it was simply warmer than average. Less than 1 percent of the world’s surface had a record-cold July, according to NOAA.

2. Global July Temperatures Plotted Through 2023

Here’s another way of looking at July temperature anomalies, in this chart from Berkeley Earth. The global mean temperature in July was 1.54 degrees Celsius above the average between the years 1850 and 1900. (That time period is used as a benchmark for the preindustrial period.) 

When the Paris Climate Agreement talks set a goal that humanity would try to hold temperatures to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels, that meant sustained temperatures. That is, this July may have hit 1.54 above preindustrial temperatures, but overall the world has warmed 1.1 degrees C above them. 

But as you can see in the Berkeley Earth graph, the July 2023 temperature (farthest right) leapt far above previous years. It beat the previous record, from July 2019, by 0.26 degrees C. So while the Paris Agreement target hasn’t been exceeded yet in terms of averages over many years, the Berkeley Earth report concludes, “isolated anomalies above 1.5 °C are a sign that the Earth is getting close to that limit.”

3. Heat Domes Over the US

In July, a “heat dome” settled over the southern and western bits of the US. It’s a good example of how extreme heat can spike. In this map from the National Weather Service on July 13, we see areas with excessive heat warnings in purple, while orange signifies heat advisories. 

A month later, another heat dome hit the central US, with Lawrence, Kansas, clocking a heat index—which considers both temperature and humidity—of 134 degrees F.

Heat domes are self-perpetuating monsters, thanks to their tendency to fuel themselves. A heat dome begins when air sinks from high altitudes, heating up significantly before it hits the ground. As the days go on, moisture evaporates from the landscape, raising temperatures still further. A heat dome also prevents clouds from forming, so the sun’s energy keeps hitting the ground full-force. 

4. Absurd Land Surface Temps in Phoenix

Throughout July, relentless heat baked Phoenix, with 31 days straight of temperatures exceeding 110 degrees. It smashed the previous record of 18 days. In the NASA animation above, the deep red indicates land surface temperatures up to 102 degrees. Notice how between July 2 and 19, Phoenix gets progressively hotter. 

But if highs exceeded 110 degrees, why are these surface temperatures below that? Because these readings were taken between 2 and 3 in the morning. It’s a striking illustration of the urban heat island effect: Roads and buildings absorb heat during the day, and slowly release it at night. This sustained heat takes a huge toll on the human body whenever people can’t get the respite of cooling off at night.

5. Wildfire Devastates the Town of Lahaina, Maui

On August 8, the deadliest wildfire in modern US history tore through the coastal town of Lahaina, Maui, driven by 60-mile-an-hour winds pouring down a mountainside like an avalanche. The death toll has risen to 115, and crews are still searching the ashes. The map shows the yellow infrared signatures of active fires on August 8.

Climate change is making wildfires worse year by year, as higher atmospheric temperatures suck moisture out of the landscape, turning dead vegetation into tinder. Maui and the other Hawaiian islands are plagued with invasive grasses that grow rapidly during the rainy season, then dehydrate during the dry season. This accelerant helped doom Lahaina—a town on a tropical island that only rarely saw wildfire before humans arrived.

6. The Eastern US Chokes on Wildfire Smoke

Along with the tropical Hawaiian islands, the East Coast isn’t exactly known for its wildfires. (That’s in stark contrast to the West Coast’s increasingly catastrophic blazes.)

But this year it’s certainly been feeling the side effects of fires, thanks to Canada’s blazes, which caused mass evacuations and are becoming harder than ever to fight. The animated map above is from June 28, modeling how smoke swirled south into Midwestern and Eastern states—even as far south as into Georgia—as hundreds of fires burned in Canada. (Red signifies thicker smoke near the surface.) 

At the time, nearly a third of the US population was under air quality alerts: Wildfire smoke is bad for anyone’s lungs, but is especially terrible for folks with respiratory problems like asthma. 

7. The Very Odd Loss of Antarctica’s Sea Ice

This is not what you want to see in Antarctica. This graph shows the extent of sea ice floating around the southern continent—the line for 2023 is in red, and the other colors of squiggly lines are the years since 1979. (“Extent” means the area of sea ice, which researchers measure in millions of square kilometers.)

Anything above the horizontal gray line is above the average, while anything below it is below the average. And 2023 is way, way below, currently indicating that over 2 million square kilometers of Antarctic sea ice are missing.

Scientists are still trying to figure out whether this is a fleeting event, or whether we’re witnessing a fundamental shift in the way Antarctica’s sea ice works. “I really think it's a combination of atmospheric drivers and ocean drivers that are just tricky to understand, whether it's natural climate variability versus climate change,” says climate scientist Zachary Labe of Princeton University and NOAA, who created the graph. “The anomaly in the extreme event is very striking. It is really weird. But still, a lot of questions remain on the specifics of what is causing that.”

The good news is that because Antarctica’s sea ice is already floating, if it melts it won’t add to sea levels. The bad news is that sea ice helps protect the continent’s massive ice sheets from the wind and waves, keeping them from breaking apart. If Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, aka the Doomsday Glacier, fully deteriorated and tugged the ice surrounding it on land into the ocean, that’d add 10 feet to sea levels. 

8. Soaring Sea Surface Temperatures 

Since March, global sea surface temperatures have been rising as the amount of Antarctic sea ice falls, and are now far above the norm. This graph shows 2023 in the solid black line, and previous years as the other squiggles. The orange line is 2022. (Note that this is an average of the world’s sea surface temperatures. Some areas are even hotter.) 

Historically, oceans have absorbed around 90 percent of the excess heat humans have pumped into the atmosphere, and we are seeing the devastating consequences. In July, temperatures off the coast of Florida reached 101 degrees, leading to mass bleaching of corals. Scientists are also worried about how consistently high sea surface temperatures are affecting the plankton that make up the very base of the ocean food web. 

Also keep in mind that as the oceans get hotter, that warmer water expands—in fact, around half of sea level rise comes from this “thermal expansion,” and the other half from melting ice.

9. Zooming in on the North Atlantic

This chart specifically shows sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The extra heat there is especially worrying because warm waters fuel hurricanes. This has set up an interesting battle in the North Atlantic, as we reported in late June: El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific, providing wind shear that could counteract the development of hurricanes. But earlier this month, NOAA provided an update, saying that El Niño’s effects may not show up in the Atlantic in time to tamp down hurricanes. There’s now a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season. 

El Niño’s warm waters may have also helped supercharge Hurricane Hilary, which formed in the eastern Pacific and marched north, making landfall in Mexico and Southern California as a tropical storm last week. That storm dropped an astonishing amount of water, causing severe flooding and debris flows: Mount San Jacinto, near Palm Springs, got nearly a foot of rainfall over two days 

10. The El Niño Wild Card

Looking ahead to next year, El Niño (pictured above as the smear of red off the west coast of South America) could drive temperatures still higher, potentially costing the world trillions of dollars. Historically, there’s been a lag of about three months between El Niño peaking and the biggest response in surface temperatures. “We generally expect the bigger effects of the developing El Niño to be felt in 2024 than 2023,” says Hausfather, of Berkeley Earth. “2023, when all things are said and done, is probably going to be the warmest year on record, but not by a huge margin over 2016 and 2020. At least right now, it looks like 2024 is on track to be the real record-shatterer in terms of annual temperatures.”

[thechembow]

Not Smoke

Sept. 21, 2023

We had a major energy shift in California in the last couple of days. This morning, although I don't think it rained last night, water was dripping off our roof and the deck was wet.

Yesterday and today, to the east over the Grapevine, we could see dark transmuting DOR. Today it looked a little like smoke, but it was clearly an energetic shift as we often see over Lebec as fog and low transmuting clouds from the Central Valley roll through the mountains.

This energy shift is affecting all of central California. The news is playing it off as wildfire smoke from a fire from last month far north in Siskiyou County, the SRF Lightning Complex. I have a hard time even with the name of this fire since any lightning on the start date of Aug. 20 was also accompanied by rain brought in by Tropical Storm Hilary (yes, even that far north).

The last update on this fire from Cal Fire is on Aug. 30, but it's blank! The numbers are all zero. The last true update was on Aug. 29. The data shows that the fire started on Aug. 20, and the news claims that it's still burning and this is the reason for the dark transmuting DOR clouds in Central California and along the coast, even into San Luis Obispo, which is too far away and in the wrong direction from the wind to be affected by a now nonexistent wildfire. The DOR is grey in color and looks enough like smoke that this is the excuse the meteorologists use to avoid using orgonomy to explain the weather.

In fact, a massive energetic shift is underway. When DOR transmutes (this used to be called "smog" but now they call it smoke) it goes through phases. The heaviest DOR is black and this has not been seen in California since the 1970s (I've seen it in movies). In the 80s, the DOR was brown, hanging over the city. This severity of DOR has not been seen since the 90s,

The worst DOR is black, then brown, and then as it transmutes it turns grey and starts to lift. In the final stages it's white (they call this "ozone pollution" today to cover up for the energetic action of OR on DOR). After it turns white it lifts and disappears. Sometimes in the grey and white phases, you will see clouds forming out of the top of the haze as OR has a lifting action on particulates and water vapor in the atmosphere.

The media has gone so far as to issue an air quality alert for Central California. They used this same tactic in the east because a major transmutation has taken place there with a huge gifting effort from new gifters in New England. For months they have claimed that wildfires in Canada which were long out were the reason for the haze of transmuting DOR.

Wildfires are part of the climate change narrative, but it's not just because they want us to believe the world is getting hotter and drier (which it obviously is not). It's because they are desperately trying to cover up the real reason for climate change, orgone energy, the cooling and moistening effect it's having on the climate worldwide, and most importantly, that we can CHANGE THE WEATHER back to what it was before the DOR emergency and restore our climate.

[gazettereview]

Air Quality Drops As Canada Wildfire Smokes Spread Across the U.S. -Read more at https://gazettereview.com/air-quality-drops-as-canada-wildfire-smokes-spread-across-the-u-s/ - https://gazettereview.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/wildfire-smoke-covers-us.jpg #US

Air Quality Drops As Canada Wildfire Smokes Spread Across the U.S.

The number of wildfires in Canada have gone up significantly over the past week, with the smoke blanketing several parts of the U.S. Last summer, large wildfires tore through southern and central Canada, sending smoke into the northern United States. While the number of wildfires is expected to be lower compared to 2023, it will […]

https://gazettereview.com/air-quality-drops-as-canada-wildfire-smokes-spread-across-the-u-s/

[cybermoonmoon]

Warm Winter Syndrome.

One of the most robust measures of Earth’s changing climate is that winter is warming more quickly than other seasons. The cascade of changes it brings, including ice storms and rain in regions that were once reliably below freezing, are symptoms of what I call “warming winter syndrome.”

Wintertime warming represents the global accumulation of heat. During winter, direct heat from the Sun is weak, but storms and shifts in the jet stream bring warm air up from more southern latitudes into the northern U.S. and Canada. As global temperatures and the oceans warm, that stored heat has an influence on both temperature and precipitation.

The U.S. has been feeling this warming in the winter of 2023-24. Snowfall has been below average in much of the country. On the Great Lakes, the ice cover has been at historic lows. Late February saw a wave of summerlike temperatures spread up into the central and eastern U.S., accompanied by the potential for dangerous thunderstorms and wildfire risk. And forecasters expected another above-average warm spell in early March. ...Click on below.

(Image snapped above my home.)

Diagnosing ‘warming winter syndrome’ as summerlike heat sweeps into central and eastern US (theconversation.com)

[kaiyves-backup]

One of the most robust measures of Earth’s changing climate is that winter is warming more quickly than other seasons. The cascade of changes it brings, including ice storms and rain in regions that were once reliably below freezing, are symptoms of what I call “warming winter syndrome.” Wintertime warming represents the global accumulation of heat. During winter, direct heat from the Sun is weak, but storms and shifts in the jet stream bring warm air up from more southern latitudes into the northern U.S. and Canada. As global temperatures and the oceans warm, that stored heat has an influence on both temperature and precipitation. The U.S. has been feeling this warming in the winter of 2023-24. Snowfall has been below average in much of the country. On the Great Lakes, the ice cover has been at historic lows. Late February saw a wave of summerlike temperatures spread up into the central and eastern U.S., accompanied by the potential for dangerous thunderstorms and wildfire risk. And forecasters expected another above-average warm spell in early March.

[intlforestday]

 Invest significant political and financial capital in wildfire prevention, preparedness and recovery.

In June 2023, as thousands of wildfires raged in Canada, the skies in New York turned orange with haze and smoke. For the first time, New York topped the list of cities with the worst air quality, and health advisories were issued advising residents to stay indoors. It was a dramatic reminder that environmental crises have no boundaries and should be a concern for us all.

Every year, from Canada and the United States to the Amazon and the Arctic, across Africa, Asia and Europe, wildfires take a heavy toll on the environment and wildlife, as well as human lives and infrastructure. The recognized costs of wildfires are usually based on direct economic consequences in the public sector, including costs associated with fire suppression, insurance, the loss of assets and, above all, the loss of lives. However, wildfires also have broad and long-lasting impacts on social, economic and environmental sustainability.

It is estimated that globally, wildfire-induced air pollution is associated with 340,000 premature deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular issues. The negative economic effects of wildfires are mounting. The 2018 California Camp Fire is estimated to have caused around 19 billion dollars in direct costs, while the 2019-20 wildfires in Australia resulted in 23 billion dollars in direct costs. It is also estimated that 6 million homes in the United States are now considered uninsurable due to wildfire risk.

Globally, more than two thirds of the wildfires that took place from 2001 to 2018 occurred in Africa; the largest areas burned (exceeding 500 million hectares) were located in Eastern and Southern Africa, Western and Central Africa, Oceania (mainly Australia), Northern Africa and South America. As the increasing effects of climate change and land-use change make wildfires more frequent and intense, it is estimated that we could witness a global increase in the occurrence of extreme fires of up to 14 per cent by 2030, 30 per cent by 2050 and 50 per cent by the end of this century.

Wildfires affect all biomes, from forests and savannahs to grasslands and tundra. Globally, over 370 million hectares of land burn every year, releasing over 1.8 billion tons of greenhouse gases. Wildfires in forests account for 5 per cent of land burned but contribute to more than 80 per cent of the greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate change, unsustainable land use and deforestation are among the key drivers of wildfires. Climate change exacerbates wildfire risk through increased drought, high air temperatures, low relative humidity, dry lightning and strong winds. In the last 30 years, climate change is estimated to have doubled the total forest area burned in the western United States. Unsustainable land use and environmental degradation reduce the resilience of natural ecosystems to wildfires, while deforestation and drainage of peatlands worsen drought conditions and increase flammability.

Although eliminating the risk of future wildfires is not feasible, we can do more to manage and reduce risks. Failure to act now would jeopardize achievement of the Global Forest Goals, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Paris Agreement on climate change and other development goals. Restoring the health of our biomes, reverting them from tinderboxes to resilient ecosystems, requires urgent action to develop integrated approaches to wildfire management and climate mitigation, applying scientific knowledge, working in partnership with stakeholders and strengthening international cooperation.

Comprehensive strategies and integrated approaches for wildfire management should include elements related to risk mitigation and prevention, fire suppression, and post-disaster recovery plans. Historically, the focus of wildfire management has been more on suppression rather than on prevention and mitigation; this approach needs to change. Integrated fire management and its five key elements—review and analysis, risk reduction, readiness, response and recovery (the 5Rs)—offer a good methodology in this context.

Mitigating climate change and adapting to extreme wildfires must be tackled simultaneously. It is important to include sustainable land use, sustainable forest management and fire management in national sustainable development plans, as well as in strategies on climate change adaptation and mitigation, and biodiversity conservation. Furthermore, Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and Voluntary National Contributions to achieve the Global Forest Goals of the United Nations Strategic Plan for Forests provide an opportunity to simultaneously advance a synergetic forest-climate agenda to reduce the risks of wildfires.

Applying scientific knowledge can help to improve early warning systems through advanced technologies and science-based landscape and forest management strategies. Greater use of modern technologies in monitoring, detecting and controlling fires, such as through remote sensing and real-time alarm systems, can help in this regard.

Active participation by stakeholders is critical for the effective implementation of wildfire management strategies. The engagement of Indigenous peoples and local communities, scientific experts and the private sector is particularly important. Incorporating traditional knowledge, experiences and wildfire practices of local communities and Indigenous peoples in wildfire management strategies is also beneficial.

Finally, international cooperation is vital for concerted global action to curb wildfires. Wildfires pose a serious risk to sustainable development due to their impacts on human health, climate, pollution and economies. Delegates at the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF) have repeatedly highlighted how uncontrolled wildfires pose a growing threat to the health of the world’s forests and the need for greater investment in fire control and management. Global and regional collaborative initiatives include the Global Wildland Fire Network and its regional networks; Regional Fire Management Resource Centres; Regional Fire Monitoring Centres; and the new Global Fire Management Hub, launched in May 2023 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In October 2023, the Government of India will convene a country-led initiative in support of UNFF to enable Forum members to share best practices in the long-term management of forests, growing challenges related to forest fire prevention and management, and issues related to forest certification. Such initiatives help to promote technological collaboration and exchange of scientific data, capacity development, and training in fire management and research.

For millennia, our ancestors used fire as a land management tool to improve hunting conditions, clear vegetation for agriculture and grazing, and control pests. While the landscapes we live in today are markedly different, we still have the knowledge and tools we need to mitigate the risk of uncontrolled wildfires. Restoring our balance with nature is possible if we choose to invest significant political and financial capital in wildfire prevention, preparedness and recovery. It might then be also possible to restore hope for a climate-resilient future, one that includes green forests and blue skies for all.

[finlaure13]

Seth Borenstein

The Associated Press

January 09, 2024

Earth shattered global heat record in '23 and it's flirting with warming limit, European agency says

Earth last year shattered global annual heat records, flirted with the world’s agreed-upon warming threshold and showed more signs of a feverish planet, the European climate agency said Tuesday.

In one of the first of several teams of science agencies to calculate how off-the-charts warm 2023 was, the European climate agency Copernicus said the year was 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.66 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That's barely below the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit that the world hoped to stay within in the 2015 Paris climate accord to avoid the most severe effects of warming.

And January 2024 is on track to be so warm that for the first time a 12-month period will exceed the 1.5-degree threshold, Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said. Scientists have repeatedly said that Earth would need to average 1.5 degrees of warming over two or three decades to be a technical breach of the threshold.

The 1.5 degree goal “has to be (kept) alive because lives are at risk and choices have to be made,” Burgess said. “And these choices don’t impact you and I but they impact our children and our grandchildren.”

The record heat made life miserable and sometimes deadly in Europe, North America, China and many other places last year. But scientists say a warming climate is also to blame for more extreme weather events, like the lengthy drought that devastated the Horn of Africa, the torrential downpours that wiped out dams and killed thousands in Libya and the Canada wildfires that fouled the air from North America to Europe. For the first time, nations meeting for annual United Nations climate talks in December agreed that the world needs to transition away from the fossil fuels that are causing climate change, but they set no concrete requirements to do so.

Copernicus calculated that the global average temperature for 2023 was about one-sixth of a degree Celsius (0.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the old record set in 2016. While that seems a small amount in global record-keeping, it's an exceptionally large margin for the new record, Burgess said. Earth's average temperature for 2023 was 14.98 degrees Celsius (58.96 degrees Fahrenheit), Copernicus calculated.

“It was record-breaking for seven months. We had the warmest June, July, August, September, October, November, December,” Burgess said. “It wasn’t just a season or a month that was exceptional. It was exceptional for over half the year.”

There are several factors that made 2023 the warmest year on record, but by far the biggest factor was the ever-increasing amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that trap heat, Burgess said. Those gases come from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

Other factors including the natural El Nino — a temporary warming of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide — other natural oscillations in the Arctic, southern and Indian oceans, increased solar activity and the 2022 eruption of an undersea volcano that sent water vapor into the atmosphere, Burgess said.

Malte Meinshausen, a University of Melbourne climate scientist, said about 1.3 degrees Celsius of the warming comes from greenhouse gases, with another 0.1 degrees Celsius from El Nino and the rest being smaller causes.

Given El Nino and record ocean heat levels, Burgess said it’s “extremely likely” that 2024 will be even hotter than 2023.

Copernicus records only go back to 1940 and are based on a combination of observations and forecast models. Other groups, including the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office and Berkeley Earth go back to the mid-1800s and will announce their calculations for 2023 on Friday, with expectations of record-breaking marks.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency, which uses similar techniques as Copernicus and goes back to 1948, late last month estimated that it was the warmest year at 1.47 degrees Celsius (2.64 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The University of Alabama Huntsville global dataset, which uses satellite measurements rather than ground data and dates to 1979, last week also found it the hottest year on record, but not by as much.

Though actual observations only date back less than two centuries, several scientists say evidence from tree rings and ice cores suggest this is the warmest the Earth has been in more than 100,000 years.

“2023 was probably hottest year on Earth in about 125,000 years,” said Woodwell Climate Research Center climate scientist Jennifer Francis. “Humans were around before that but it’s certainly fair to say it’s the hottest since humans became civilized, depending on the definition of ‘civilized.’ ”

Amid record hot months were days that were downright unprecedented hot across the globe.

For the first time, Copernicus recorded a day where the world averaged at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) more than pre-industrial times. It happened twice and narrowly missed a third day around Christmas, Burgess said.

And for the first time, every day of the year was at least one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times. For nearly half the year — 173 days — the world was 1.5 degrees warmer than the mid-1800s.

Meinshausen, the Australian climate scientist, said it's natural for the public to wonder whether the 1.5-degree target is lost. He said it's important for people to keep trying to rein in warming.

“We are not abolishing a speed limit, because somebody exceeded the speed limit,” he said. "We double our efforts to step on the brakes.”

[newstfionline]

Friday, August 18, 2023

As Wildfire Nears, Entire Canadian City Is Ordered to Evacuate (NYT) As a wildfire barreled toward a territorial capital in Canada, officials ordered an extraordinary citywide evacuation of thousands of people on Wednesday night. Firefighters were struggling to contain the blaze, which was about 17 kilometers, or just over 10 miles, outside Yellowknife, the capital of the Northwest Territories, officials said. It was expected to reach the city by the weekend. Several nearby communities were also ordered to evacuate. Officials fear that the highway linking those places to Yellowknife—where about 20,000 people live—could be engulfed by fire as soon as Friday. The remarkable order was yet another reminder of the disruption wrought by Canada’s worst wildfire season on record. About 1,000 fires are active in the country. So far this year, the fires have burned an area 91 times as large as last year’s entire fire season. At times, smoke has traveled as far south as Georgia and as far east as Europe.

Water stress (Washington Post) A growing population and rising temperatures will strain the world’s freshwater supplies over the next 30 years, jeopardizing available water for drinking, bathing and growing food, according to new research. An analysis of newly released data from the World Resources Institute (WRI) shows that by 2050 an additional billion people will be living in arid areas and regions with high water stress, where at least 40 percent of the renewable water supply is consumed each year. Two-fifths of the world’s population—3.3 billion people in total—currently live in such. WRI used a global hydrological model to estimate how renewable water sources—such as rivers and lakes, which are replenished through precipitation—might change under future climate change scenarios. According to their analysis, the Middle East and North Africa regions have the highest level of water stress in the world. Climate change is shifting traditional precipitation patterns, making the regions drier and reducing their already scarce water supplies. Population growth and industrial use of water are expected to increase demand.

Maui tourism, an economic mainstay, sparks anger amid fire ruin (Reuters) The incongruous sight of tourists enjoying Maui’s tropical beaches while search-and-rescue teams trawl building ruins and waters for victims of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century has outraged some residents. They have vented on social media, posting video of tourists enjoying holiday activities like snorkeling while the death toll in the historic resort town of Lahaina passes 100 and is rising every day. Authorities and businesses have welcomed the trickle of travelers, saying it will lessen the blow to the island’s economy, which relies heavily on tourism. The industry is Maui’s “economic engine,” generating 80% of its wealth, according to the island’s economic development board. As Maui embarks on a long, painful recovery from the fires, officials are wrestling with how to balance residents’ immediate needs for housing and resources against the island’s long-term financial health.

Nicaraguan government seizes highly regarded university from Jesuits (AP) Nicaragua’s government has confiscated a prestigious Jesuit-run university, alleging it was a “center of terrorism,” the college said Wednesday in announcing the latest in a series of actions by authorities against the Catholic Church and opposition figures. The University of Central America in Nicaragua, which was a hub for 2018 protests against the regime of President Daniel Ortega, called the terrorism accusation unfounded and the seizure a blow to academia in Nicaragua. “This is a government policy that systematically violates human rights and appears to be aimed at consolidating a totalitarian state,” the Society of Jesus of Central America said in a statement.

Magnitude 6.3 quake shakes Colombian capital (Reuters) A strong earthquake struck the Colombian capital Bogota on Thursday, reaching a 6.3 magnitude according to the U.S. Geological Survey, prompting frightened residents to flee homes, offices and restaurants. The initial quake was followed by aftershocks minutes later as people crowded the city's streets. Colombia's national geological service estimated the second quake at a 5.6 magnitude, with the following aftershock measured at 4.8. "It was strong, and lasted a long time, said Adrian Alarcon, 43, who works near the capital's busy Park 93 district, referring to the first tremor. "It makes me feel fragile," he added. "Life changes in a second. You can't do anything, just run for your life."

Argentines rush to dollar safety as election uncertainty looms (Reuters) Confidence in Argentina’s peso plumbed new depths on Wednesday as the currency slid to 780 pesos per dollar in the popular black market, where savers are willing to pay more than twice the official rate, now pegged at 350 pesos per greenback. The long-struggling peso, held in check by capital controls for years, plunged this week after a shock primary election result raised the possibility of a radical libertarian economist winning the presidential election in October. Households have rushed to convert their pesos to dollars as a more stable way to protect their savings. On Monday, the central bank devalued the official exchange rate some 18% and hiked the benchmark interest rate to 118% to protect the peso and tamp down inflation, already running at more than 113% and squeezing people’s savings and wages.

Mine injuries haunt doctors in Ukraine (Washington Post) Bodies ripped to pieces. Arms and legs mangled beyond recognition. The mental anguish of amputating limb after limb after limb is a grim reality of Ukraine’s counteroffensive for doctors working in the Zaporizhzhia region. Heavily mined Russian defenses have slowed Ukraine’s attack to a bloody, painstaking crawl, and hard-won gains come at the cost of mine blast injuries more abundant than some medical professionals say they have seen in the war thus far. With Russian forces having dug in over months, any push to regain territory means traversing land dense with mines—even as civilians far from the front lines also grapple with a diffusion of mines and other explosives in previously contested areas across much of the country. “The mines are just everywhere,” Ukrainian military surgeon Dmytro Mialkovskyi, who has worked in the country since the start of the war, told The Washington Post from a hospital in Zaporizhzhia—a region at the heart of the counterattack. Ukraine has become the most mined country in the world, with more than 67,000 square miles of the country estimated to be contaminated by dangerous mines, unexploded bombs, artillery shells and other remnants of war. Hundreds of civilians have been injured, and fertile farmland rendered dangerous or unusable, in a catastrophe experts say will take decades to clear.

Heavy rain and landslides have killed at least 72 people this week in an Indian Himalayan state (AP) Days of relentless rain in India’s Himalayan region have killed at least 72 people this week, a government official said Thursday, as a heavy monsoon triggered landslides and flash floods that have submerged roads, washed away buildings and left residents scrambling for safety. Rescuers in the mountainous Himachal Pradesh state have been working through challenging weather conditions to save people trapped under mud and debris from the rains that struck over the weekend. India’s weather department has put the state on high alert and expects the downpours to continue over the next few days. Vikram Singh, an operator at the state’s emergency operation center, said on Thursday that the 72 deaths occurred over the previous five days and that rescue work was ongoing.

North Korea’s Kim, in letter to Putin, vows solidarity with Russia (Washington Post) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to strengthen relations with Russia so the two countries could continue to “smash the imperialists’ arbitrary practices and hegemony,” according to a state media report. Kim made the promise in a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule, in the latest sign that Pyongyang and Moscow are deepening their bonds. Kim said the North’s relations with Russia will be “further developed into a long-standing strategic relationship” in his message to Putin. He said the two countries are “fully demonstrating their invincibility and might” in their struggle against “imperialists,” according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.

As Israeli settlements thrive, Palestinian taps run dry (AP) Across the dusty villages of the occupied West Bank, where Israeli water pipes don’t reach, date palms have been left to die. Greenhouses are empty and deserted. Palestinians say they can barely get enough water to bathe their children and wash their clothes—let alone sustain livestock and grow fruit trees. In sharp contrast, neighboring Jewish settlements look like an oasis. Wildflowers burst through the soil. Farmed fish swim in neat rows of ponds. Children splash in community pools. The struggle for water access in this strip of fertile land reflects a wider contest for control of the West Bank—and in particular the Jordan Valley, which Palestinians consider the breadbasket of their hoped-for future state and Israelis view as key to protecting their eastern border. Across the West Bank, water troubles have stalked Palestinian towns and cities since interim peace accords of the 1990s gave Israel control over 80% of the West Bank’s water reserves—and most other aspects of Palestinian life.

Seaside screen brings magic of movies to Gaza years after cinemas closed (Reuters) With car tyres, rocks and mounds of sand as seats, Palestinians of all ages have been enjoying a rare trip to the movies at a big-screen event on the Gaza beachfront. The open-air show—with a playlist including the animated children’s comedy “Ferdinand”—was for many viewers a first experience of a projected film since the impoverished enclave’s last cinema closed more than three decades ago. Hosted by “The Sea is Ours” cafe, the screenings were designed to promote issues of culture and history approved by the conservative Islamist Hamas government. They left some in the audience longing for more. “I hope one day there will be a cinema, so I can go to the cinema and eat popcorn,” said 13-year-old Mohammad Zidan as other children lolled in the sand, giggling at the cartoon. Cinema once flourished in Gaza, with Palestinians flocking to see Arab, Western and Asian films, but the movie houses were torched in the First Intifada in 1987 and then burned down again in 1996 during a wave of internal violence.

Militia clashes in Libyan capital have killed 55, in city’s most intense bout of violence this year (AP) The death toll in this week’s clashes between rival militias in Libya’s capital rose to 55 on Wednesday as troops fanned out across Tripoli to restore calm after a 24-hour bout of fighting that was the city’s most intense violence this year. An additional 146 were injured. It remains unclear how many of the dead were militiamen or civilians. The violence underscored the fragility of war-torn Libya following the 2011 uprising turned civil war, which toppled and later killed Moammar Gadhafi. Amid the chaos, militias grew in wealth and power, particularly in Tripoli and the west of the country.

BRICS nations to meet in South Africa seeking to blunt Western dominance (Reuters) BRICS leaders meet in South Africa next week to discuss how to turn a loose club of nations accounting for a quarter of the global economy into a geopolitical force that can challenge the West’s dominance in world affairs. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces an international arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, will not join leaders from Brazil, India, China and South Africa amid rifts over whether to expand the bloc to include dozens of “Global South” nations queuing up to join. South Africa will host Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the BRICS summit from August 22 to 24. Spread over the globe and with economies that operate in vastly different ways, the main thing uniting the BRICS is scepticism about a world order they see as serving the interests of the United States and its rich-country allies who promote international norms they enforce but don’t always respect.

[ihearblogsarealltherage]

Summer Trip 2023 Day 5

20 June 2023

This morning began clear and sunny with just a hint of wildfire smoke (still from Canada) in the distance. Google Maps still shows a TraveLodge where this muddy field is ... and that's the Lincoln NE airport in the distance.

Today was a relatively easy 443 miles into ... the next state to the west ...

Western and Central Nebraska -- the green areas in the map above -- have trees. This rest area was quite nice, although one wonders whether the shelters around the tables are for privacy or protection from the weather:

Corn fields are just beyond those trees, though!

Western Nebraska begins looking distinctly more barren and the highway exits are fewer and further between, and don't always have services (i.e. no gas!). At this point, I was also in an area of low clouds and relatively thick smoke from those pesky wildfires.

I stopped at the Welcome Center just over the Wyoming border. At this point, I'm at roughly 5,000 feet elevation and the scenery has changed dramatically (and I loved this rock):

Not too much further down the road, I caught my first glimpse of the mountains off in the distance, although the funny thing about this route vs. I-70 through Colorado is that you never really feel like you're IN them.

Downtown Cheyenne WY, where I'm staying tonight, had some very intriguing old buildings but I didn't feel like parking and getting photos. As a partial compensation prize, here's what is now a visitor's center and what I suspect was once the main train terminal considering that there are a LOT of tracks just on the other side of it. Out front there are three sculptures of cowboy boots, each fancifully decorated.

And finally for today, here's the view from my hotel room. Notice the distinct lack of mountains even though at this point I'm a bit above 6,000 feet elevation and directly north of Denver!

[catdotjpeg]

The New York City ZIP codes with the highest numbers of asthma-related emergency room visits during last week's smoke haze were disproportionately in low-income, predominantly Black and Hispanic communities, according to an analysis of local health department and Census data by Gothamist.

The foul air from Canada’s wildfires was bad all over, but the impact hit hardest in neighborhoods in northern Manhattan, the Bronx, central Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, which had the highest number of asthma-related emergency department visits, according to the data.

Between Tuesday, when the city’s air quality reached unhealthy levels, and Saturday there were over 1,000 asthma-related emergency department visits across the city, according to data from the city Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. That’s a 10% jump from the same period last year.

Some 70% of the asthma-related visits during the period were in ZIP codes with predominantly Black or Hispanic residents. And 60% were in ZIP codes with higher poverty rates than the city overall.

Across the city, asthma-related emergency department visits spiked last week, more than doubling overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, and remained elevated in the following days.

Research suggests that residents of high-poverty areas and higher-than-average non-white populations are at higher risk of premature death from air particle pollution, exposure typically linked to redlining, residential segregation and proximity to high-traffic areas, among other factors.

“The Bronx has the most to lose in situations like this where the environment can be very taxing for our patients,” David Chong, chief of the pulmonary and critical care division at St. Barnabas Hospital in the Bronx, said. "And we have the highest number of vulnerable patients.”

“It's a perfect storm,” he added.

Eddie Bautista, executive director of the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance, noted the communities routinely suffer high pollution readings, an impetus behind the environmental justice movement.

“So we can and should figure out how to protect the most vulnerable," Bautista said.

The top-10 ZIP codes with asthma-related emergency room visits have far higher poverty rates and populations of Black and Hispanic residents than the rest of the city.

According to a 2021 Census Bureau survey, roughly one in five New Yorkers lives below the federal poverty line – at the time $26,500 for a family of four – and a little less than half are Black or Hispanic. Meanwhile, in the top-10 ZIP codes for ER visits, about a third of the residents live below the poverty line. In the same communities, Blacks and Hispanic residents account for at least half or significantly more of the population.

-- “Asthma ER visits during NYC smoke haze were highest in high-poverty, Black and Latino areas” by Arya Sundaram for Gothamist, 12 Jun 2023

According to data from the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the neighborhoods with the highest asthma-related ER Visits between June 6-10 were Harlem and East Harlem in upper Manhattan; Brownsville, Bed Stuy/Bushwick/South Williamsburg, and East New York in Brooklyn; Morrisania, Olinville, Claremont Park/Mount Hope, and Crotona Park East/West Farms in the Bronx; and Far Rockaway in Queens.

[newsbites]

News from BC, 14 June

Debris loosened by wildfires is causing concerns for transportation safety in British Columbia, as trees continue to fall unpredictably onto the roadways.

The closure of Hwy. 4 has resulted in a significant deployment of resources to maintain a 90-kilometre-long logging road detour route for essential goods and movement.

While progress is being reported to combat the Cameron Bluffs fire, transportation challenges persist due to the dangerous terrain and unpredictability of the wildfire conditions.

2. Another storm bringing rain, winds, and potential lightning is expected to hit northeastern British Columbia, which could impact the ongoing wildfires in the region.

3. The NDP has tabled legislation to establish a universal single-payer pharmacare system in Canada to pressure the Liberal government on the file.

The creation of a national universal pharmacare program by the end of the year is a condition of the House of Commons supply-and-confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP.

Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos did not commit to supporting the bill, saying there are consultations and other work to be done before the government brings forward a pharmacare bill — legislation he said may not pass before the end of the year.

4. The Nanaimo Association for Community Living (NACL) has launched a community garden for those with mobility challenges.

5. Chilliwack's first Vegan Festival will be held on June 17, 2023, from 11:00 AM to 5:00 PM at Central Community Park.

[dreamerinflatable]

2023/6/14 Hot spots at home and abroad, poor information

1. Development and Reform Commission: By the end of 2023, small-scale taxpayers with monthly sales of less than 100,000 yuan will be exempted from value-added tax; Central Office and State Office: developed regions shall not snatch outstanding principals and teachers from the central, western and northeastern regions;

2. Refined oil prices fell for the sixth time this year: No. 95 gasoline is expected to be lowered by 0.05 yuan, both No. 92 gasoline and No. 0 diesel oil will be lowered by 0.04 yuan, and No. 95 gasoline will enter the "7 yuan era" in most areas;

3. Qinghai: 16 tourist and shopping venues were shut down due to unclear price tags and induced shopping; Beijing: The minimum living allowance standard is planned to be raised to 1,395 yuan per person per month, which will be officially implemented in July;

4. Hainan: It is planned to distribute subsidy funds to the first batch of 29,676 new energy vehicle buyers who meet the subsidy conditions, with a total of RMB 67.026 million;

5. An explosion occurred in a residential building in Yuancuizhongli, Hedong District, Tianjin. Sub-district Office: 26 households were damaged. Residents: heard two loud noises, the second to fifth floors were completely blown up, smelled burnt, and some people were injured, suspected to be gas explosion;

6. A takeaway boy in Hangzhou encountered a woman drowning and dived from a bridge more than ten meters high to save her. Witnesses: He reminded him of the danger but he refused to turn back. The police: will apply for him to do justice;

7. Concerned about the escalation of tension in the Taiwan Strait, the US government is secretly working on a plan for the evacuation of American citizens in Taiwan.

8. US media: The Biden administration wants to increase the number of permanent members of the UN Security Council by about 6 seats, but does not grant these countries the right of veto;

9. A former intelligence officer of the U.S. military broke the news again: some humans were killed by aliens, and the U.S. government kept them secret;

10. Prime Minister Han: If the nuclear sewage treatment is fully up to standard, it can be drunk. Foreign Minister South Korea: Oppose nuclear sewage to be discharged into the sea without safety verification;

11. In Nigeria, a boat carrying hundreds of people capsized in the Niger River in the central part of the country, possibly killing more than 100 people;

12. For the first time, Pakistan used RMB to pay for Russian crude oil, and the payment was no longer mainly in US dollars; Putin signed a decree: Approving the agreement on Russia's natural gas transmission to China through the Far East route

13. Wildfires in Canada continue to rage and have burned more than 47,000 square kilometers of land. The smoke has reached Europe. Experts: climate change makes wildfires more intense and frequent;

In the fifth game of the NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat at home to win the championship. Fans flooded the streets to celebrate. A sudden shooting incident injured 9 people;

[xtruss]

Hey, I’m breathing here! Photo: Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Just Asking Questions: When Is the Smoke Apocalypse in New York Going to End?

— By Matt Stieb | June 6th, 2023 | Intelligencer

The air in New York City sucks right now, thanks to wildfire smoke from Ontario and Quebec that’s been trapped at near-ground level throughout the Northeast United States. Air quality has also plummeted to hazardous levels in western New York, and upstate looks like Mars.

With the sky turning an ominous sepia again on Wednesday afternoon, there was one question on our mind: When is this going to end? Bill Evans, the former meteorologist at WABC-TV in New York and the current owner and meteorologist at WLNG radio in Sag Harbor, explained why a rare combination of pressure systems has allowed smoke to hang over the Northeast — and why relief may arrive in a matter of days.

Why is this smoke lasting?
There’s a huge batch of smoke coming down right now from Canada that is coming out of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. It’s swinging around a rather large cutoff low-pressure system, which is moving counterclockwise. A lot of things have to come into play to create this kind of situation, where the smoke is continually coming down from Canada.

What we have going on right now is called an Omega block. That is, you have a low that is in the Gulf of Maine to Nova Scotia, you have a big high-pressure ridge over Canada, southward across the central U.S., and you have a low-pressure system that is just off the coast of California west of Los Angeles. So the jet stream wraps around that — it comes around the base of the low out west, comes up northward into Canada around the big high-pressure ridge, then comes back around the bottom of the low that is in the Gulf of Maine. The jet stream looks like a giant Omega symbol: thus the Omega block.

And the key word is block. It blocks everything, this kind of setup. You have high pressure well out into the Atlantic that blocks the low from leaving and sort of backs it in a little bit toward the U.S. coast. So this low that is sitting there, it spins counterclockwise. The prevailing winds are out of the north and northwest. And the fires are up in central Ontario and Quebec and around Nova Scotia and so that low, the winds around that pull the smoke farther south.

How and when is it going to end?
What gets this to stop is the low-pressure system dissipating, weakening, and then the winds stop or change direction to push the smoke out into the Atlantic. And that’s what we’re expecting to happen as we go into Thursday and Friday. We’ll have more of a wind out of the north, and the low will be weakening and backing into Maine. Eventually, the system will go north into Canada on Thursday night and Friday. Saturday it will finally get out of here and take the smoke with it.

So we’re ultimately waiting on this low-pressure system to move out rather than waiting for the fires to be extinguished?
That’s right, it’s all dependent on this low that’s stuck there. Had it not been, you would have had high pressure coming in that would have pushed the smoke out into the Atlantic. But this pattern has everything kind of stuck in place.

It looks like there’s a break in the smoke coming behind this next batch coming in tonight. And it looks like we get a little break tomorrow, a northerly wind, but it’s a very light wind. And also, we’ve got a front coming down that might mean showers in parts of the Northeast, which would help knock some of the smoke particles down as well.

The Downtown Manhattan skyline stands shrouded in a reddish haze as a result of Canadian wildfires on June 6, 2023.

So the low-pressure system is also creating the conditions that allow the smoke to reach ground or near-ground levels? In recent years, when there have been fires in the west, we’ll get a hazy day, but it doesn’t feel like this.
That’s correct. Low pressure and high pressure, if you look at it dimensionally — the low is a valley and the high is a mountain. And the lower-pressure area is allowing the smoke to come down through the troposphere. Once it gets down to the surface, the surface winds take hold, and there’s been that wind consistently out of the north and northwest spinning around the low.

Livestream of lower Manhattan/NYC from the top of the St. George Tower in Brooklyn, New York.

Why does it seem to be worse in the afternoon and early evening?
The heating of the sun fires up these particles and traps them at the surface. Fortunately, we haven’t had extremely hot air. If we had 90-to-100-degree temperatures, that’s the only thing that could have made this worse.

Photo: Alex Kent/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Is this what it was like in the ’60s smog era?
Back then, the pollution was from automobile emissions, industry, stuff like that, where you had cleaners, dry cleaners emitting into the atmosphere wildly without a lot of regulation. That would get heated up by the sun — you could actually see the dome over New York City. But now that the air quality has gotten better and there are more restrictions on pollutants going into the atmosphere, that’s gotten a lot better.

[agent-bash]

How different would you say Canadian FDs are from American ones (real or what you’ve seen on television)

I mean it takes an adjustment, sure, but they really aren't that different at all. I mean between the US and Canada we even share a union. There are even exchanges you can go on, and that's global, just too get the experience of how the same job is done all over the world. I've done this. We'll also do visits to learn from each other. Why maybe you have this new procedure and is it applicable to us where we are. But this is not just dependent States to Canada but also state to state (province to province) and even city to city.

Ultimately it's no different than if you were moving to a new state. Firefighters from New York and ones from south central Ontario(where I am) are likely going to have pretty much the same growing pains if they all moved to say Florida and vice versa.

There are slightly different procedures, slightly different regulations, slightly different gear sometimes, but that doesn't take that long to get used to. It's why we can go to the States to help with wildfires there, or you guys can come to us, or we can all go give Australia a hand. Because at the core, the job is the same wherever you are.

The biggest thing I've encountered, having done exchanges other trips to the States for the job, is that at least major cities, you guys will get the new toys first. If it came to Chicago in 2021, I might get my hands on it in 2023. Maybe. Depends on how much we beg.

[newstfionline]

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Canada Tests the Limits of Its Immigration Strategy (WSJ) High levels of immigration made Canada the second-fastest growing developed-world economy in recent years, trailing only the U.S., as it competed to attract high-skilled workers from around the world. Now, the newcomers are starting to strain the country’s ability to absorb them—adding fuel to an overheated housing market, stressing the healthcare system and clogging up roads in cities unaccustomed to traffic jams. It is also prompting immigrants to think twice about choosing Canada. Karanvir Singh, 27, originally from New Delhi and a trained accountant, arrived in the Toronto area last November on a work permit, after four years in Dublin. He said he is having second thoughts, based on housing prices, the cost of food and lackluster public transit. The country of 40 million people last year welcomed more than one million permanent and temporary immigrants, Statistics Canada said. That influx generated a population growth of 2.7%; the increase of 1.05 million people was nearly equivalent to last year’s increase in the U.S., a country with more than eight times Canada’s population.

Trump Indictment, Part IV (NYT) Another grand jury, another indictment. For the fourth time in as many months, former President Donald J. Trump was charged on Monday with serious crimes and what was once unprecedented has now become surreally routine. The novelty of a former leader of the United States being called a felon has somehow worn off. Not that the sweeping 98-page indictment handed up in Georgia accusing him of corruptly trying to reverse the state’s 2020 election results was any less momentous. Multiple prosecutors have now cumulatively laid out an alleged presidential crime spree of epic proportions, complete with tangled intrigues, mysterious co-conspirators and intersecting subplots. The Georgia indictment went further than previous ones by charging 18 others with joining a criminal enterprise with the former president, including associates like Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mark Meadows, Sidney Powell, Jeffrey Clark and John Eastman. Yet most Americans made up their minds about Mr. Trump long before prosecutors like Fani T. Willis or Jack Smith weighed in, polls have shown. He is, depending on the perspective, a serial lawbreaker finally being brought to justice or a victim of persecution by partisans intent on keeping him out of office. “The accumulated indictments are kind of a white noise for voters,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican political consultant who has organized opposition to Mr. Trump and conducts weekly focus groups with voters. “They can’t tell the difference between Georgia and Jack Smith because it all blurs together in one long news cycle of Trump’s-in-trouble.”

Number of dead from Maui wildfires reaches 106, as governor warns there could be scores more (AP) The number of deaths caused by the Maui wildfires stood at 106 Tuesday, a figure that is likely to increase as search crews comb neighborhoods where flames moved as fast as a mile a minute. The blazes that consumed most of the historic town of Lahaina are already the deadliest in the U.S. in more than a century. In an interview with CBS, Gov. Josh Green estimated searchers will find the remains of 10 to 20 people per day until they finish their work. “And it’s probably going to take 10 days. It’s impossible to guess, really,” he said.

Currency chaos (Foreign Policy) Following a dramatic drop in the ruble on Monday, Russia’s Central Bank hiked interest rates by 350 basis points, to 12 percent, at an emergency meeting on Tuesday. Economists hope the controversial decision will tighten Moscow’s monetary situation and counter fears of skyrocketing inflation. However, experts worry that the weakening ruble, which hit a 16-month low this week, could still further hurt the nation’s already isolated economy. The Kremlin isn’t the only one spinning its financial wheels in the hopes of finding traction. The shock primary election victory of populist Javier Milei in Argentina on Sunday tanked the nation’s peso by as much as 18 percent on Monday. The Latin American country’s central bank raised interest rates to 118 percent that day to better protect the currency.

Life for Convicts in Russia’s Army (NYT) In a month spent at the front line, Aleksandr, an ex-convict serving in the Russian Army, hadn’t seen a single Ukrainian soldier and had barely fired a shot. The threat of death came from a distance. Sent to guard against a potential river crossing in southern Ukraine, his hastily formed unit, made up almost entirely of inmates, endured weeks of relentless bombardment, sniper attacks and ambushes. The marshy, flat terrain offered no cover beyond the burned-out hulks of cottages. Aleksandr claims that out of the 120 men in his unit, only about 40 remain alive. These survivors are being heavily pressured by the Russian military to remain on the battlefield at the end of their six-month contracts, according to Aleksandr and accounts provided to The New York Times from two other Russian inmates fighting on the front line. “We are being sent to a slaughter,” Aleksandr said in a series of audio messages from the Kherson region, referring to his commanders. “We are not human to them, because we are criminals.” His account provides a rare window into the fighting in Ukraine from a Russian inmate’s perspective. Units made up of convicts have become one of the cornerstones of Russian military strategy as the prolonged fighting has decimated the country’s regular forces. Aleksandr’s descriptions could not be independently confirmed, but they aligned with accounts from Ukrainian soldiers and Russian prisoners of war who said that Moscow used inmates essentially as cannon fodder.

Massive explosion at gas station in Russia’s Dagestan kills 35, injures scores more (AP) A massive explosion at a gas station in Russia’s southern republic of Dagestan killed 35 people and injured scores more, Russian officials said Tuesday. Russia’s Emergency Ministry reported Tuesday that a total of 105 people were injured, and 35 of them died. The explosion took place Monday night on the outskirts of Makhachkala, the region’s capital. A fire started at a car repair shop and spread to a nearby gas station, prompting a blast, Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

As the Black Sea becomes a battleground, one Ukrainian farmer doesn’t know how he’ll sell his grain (AP) Victor Tsvyk harvested 4,800 tons of wheat this month, but after Russia exited a wartime deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain to the world, he has no idea where his produce will go. Or how his beloved farm will survive. Tsvyk, who normally exported up to 90% of his harvest from the southern port of Odesa, faces a crisis: His yield is 20% higher compared with last year, which would have been a boon in times of peace, but in war, exorbitant logistics costs and Russia’s blockage of the ports has made shipping grain too expensive for him. Tsvyk is one of thousands of Ukrainian farmers facing a similar dilemma. Tsvyk doesn’t know what he will do with his harvest or how he will keep paying his 77 workers. “It’s too painful to talk about,” the 67-year-old said when asked how he envisions the future.

Modi says India’s economy will be among the top three in the world within five years (AP) Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India’s economy will be among the top three in the world within five years, as he marked 76 years of independence from British rule on Tuesday. “When poverty decreases in a country, the power of the middle class increases considerably,” he said. “In the next five years, I promise India will be among the top three economies in the world.” His statement comes after reports last year from S&P Global and Morgan Stanley forecast that India’s economy would overtake Japan and Germany’s to become the world’s third largest by 2030. They said India’s economic boom will be driven by offshoring, investment in manufacturing, growing digital infrastructure and energy transition. India’s $3.5 trillion economy surpassed the United Kingdom’s last year to become the fifth largest. Modi said he was confident that when India marks 100 years of independence in 2047, it will do so as a developed nation.

Taliban Fighters, Unsettled by Peace, Seek New Battles Abroad (NYT) As a child studying in a madrasa in Afghanistan, Mohammad Khalid Tahir dreamed of waging jihad. By the time he was a teenager, he had joined the Taliban and celebrated when they seized power from the U.S.-backed government two years ago. But the high from that victory did not last. Reassigned as a soldier in the capital, he frequently complained that he was bored and longed to return to his life’s purpose, according to his family. So this spring, he did—but across the border in Pakistan. “Our only expectation is to be martyred,” Mr. Tahir says in a video of him en route to Pakistan that was viewed by The New York Times. About a month later, he was killed by Pakistani security forces, his relatives said. As a generation of fighters raised in war now finds itself stuck in a country at peace, hundreds of young Taliban soldiers have crossed illegally into Pakistan to battle alongside an insurgent group, according to Taliban members, local leaders and security analysts. Like Mr. Tahir, many say they are determined to continue waging jihad—wherever in the world it takes them. The exodus has renewed longstanding fears about violent extremism spilling out of Afghanistan under the Taliban and destabilizing neighboring countries or one day reaching Western targets. Countries from Russia and China to the United States and Iran have all raised alarms about the possible resurgence in Afghanistan of terrorist groups, like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, with more global ambitions.

China suspends youth jobless data after record high readings (Reuters) China suspended publication of its youth jobless data on Tuesday, saying it needed to review the methodology behind the closely watched benchmark, which has hit record highs in one of many warning signs for the world’s second-largest economy. The decision announced shortly after the release of weaker-than-expected factory and retail sales data sparked rare backlash on social media amid growing frustration about employment prospects in the country. It also marks the latest move by Chinese authorities to restrict access to key data and information, a trend that is unnerving overseas investors. The most recent NBS data on youth unemployment, published last month, showed the jobless rate jumping to a record high of 21.3% in June. “If you close your eyes then it doesn’t exist,” one user wrote on microblogging site Weibo, where a hashtag related to the decision received over 10 million views. “There is a saying called ‘burying your head in the sand’,” wrote another user.

The Deluge Facing Africa’s Leaders Is Going to Get Worse (NYT/Opinion) An uninterrupted swath of African countries from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea is now under military rule. Mali, Guinea, Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso and, most recently, Niger. Some of the putschists deposed elected leaders, like Niger’s president, Mohamed Bazoum. Others forestalled elections or even overthrew the leaders they had installed. Up to now, officials in Washington, Brussels, London and Addis Ababa, where the African Union is headquartered, have responded to each successive military takeover as its own crisis. Some observers see conspiracies in Moscow or terrorist networks at work, but in truth Russia’s Wagner Group and local jihadis are just opportunists. In each country recently taken over by generals, corruption had hollowed out civil administration and undermined politicians’ credibility, while soldiers have been empowered by foreign patrons wanting military bases, cooperation against terrorism and control of migration. Democracy can’t survive if it can’t deliver results. Like the rest of the world, Africans want jobs, affordable food and housing, quality education and health care. They want peace and security and the chance to set the course of their own nations’ future without being told what they can and cannot do by foreign powers. Throughout much of Africa, citizens also overwhelmingly want democracy, but they get frustrated when elected leaders don’t deliver. When people do welcome a coup, it’s often because they see it as the path to a better elected government.