#...or that he would have had the worst 5-win season ever if not for dillon going postal at richmond
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Goddamnit.
So just to start, at least this was another serviceable Phoenix finale, even if we shouldn't be here for the finale! It was awesome seeing Truex going out up front for all of about one stage in that beautiful throwback scheme! Okay, now time for the word vomit.
I could go off on this system, but I know for sure that people way more talented than me are going to talk about that way better over the next few weeks. So I'll just say this. The playoffs may be a historically bad system, but it's a system that none of the drivers make and all of them have to play by, and Logano arguably plays by them better than everyone else. Just like how Jimmie ran with the Chase format, Gordon and Earnhardt excelled under the Winston Cup format, and the Petty's somehow won under whatever the hell NASCAR was smoking before that. I'm not even saying Logano's nearly as great as them (especially since this run was so lucky and Mickey Mousey even by playoff standards), but he's perfected playing by his system just as they did with theirs, no matter how much better their systems were. (Except for the pre-Latford systems, those were fucking terrifying.) This playoff format should have been torn down years ago and NASCAR is only hurting itself by keeping it around, but for as long as it's still shifting along, everyone has to win under it. And I think I'm done doubting Logano can do just that until he's written every last signature on his retirement papers, at least in even-numbered years anyway.
And hey, it could have been worse. It could have been Byron and Chevy. I'd rather see a driver win far and square under a crappy-ass system than a driver benefit off (his manufacturer) using the crappy-ass system to manipulate their way into a title. At least that's how I see it.
#nascar#nascar cup series#nascar phoenix#phoenix raceway#i really thought blaney had him man#i don't know what's wilder#that logano just had maybe the worst championship season ever...#...or that he would have had the worst 5-win season ever if not for dillon going postal at richmond#so is this the best worst cup season in recent memory or the worst best cup season in recent memory#so many legit amazing historic moments but so many times i was questioning if this sport would still be functioning in 5 years#anyway now i can focus on the nfl now and hope shitty officiating doesn't rot away at that league either!#(well actually maybe not next weekend since the grey cup is next week and that always rules but i digress)#joey logano#don't know about tagging blaney because yikes that's a lousy way to lose the title#i expect people to be very normal about austin cindric and alex bowman's crew in the coming weeks#i'm defending logano here and not the playoffs but even then i don't enjoy this any more than you do#the bullshit is very real#(please tell me the steelers shit the bed in the playoffs or else i'm never watching sports with the same joy again)
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2021-22 NHL Predictions, Revisited
Five Teams I Most Overrated
Seattle. Look, I didn’t anticipate Philipp Grubauer being the worst goalie in the league this year. Even still, I shouldn’t have put them third in their division because who the hell did I think was going to score for them? Jordan Eberle and Jared McCann are good players and all, but can they carry an NHL team? Well, clearly not, since the Kraken finished dead last in the Pacific. Whoops.
New York Islanders. Fuck these guys! I spend the last few seasons pooh-poohing their success, saying their roster is bereft of scoring talent and full of overpaid depth players, only to be embarrassed by their strong playoff performances. They finally wear me down and I pick them to win the Metropolitan, so naturally that’s when they decide to start sucking again. Piss off! I don’t want to hear from these guys ever again. You’ve made me look like a fool for too long.
Winnipeg. I thought that their off-season acquisitions of Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon would shore up their defensive struggles and that Connor Hellebuyck would continue playing up to the standard he’d set over the past few years. Wrong on both counts. It’s not even that Hellebuyck was bad this year; he just wasn’t world-beatingly good.
Vegas. Another team I picked to win their division that missed the playoffs. In my defence, this is still a good team, easily one of the best in the Pacific, when healthy and when their goaltending doesn’t stink. They’ll be back in the playoffs next year.
Montreal. They lost Philip Danault, Carey Price, and Shea Weber from last year’s fluke Cup Final run, so I figured they’d be a worse team but I didn’t predict they’d finish dead last. I guess all that’s left to say is hahahahahahahahaha
Honourable mention: Philadelphia.
Five Teams I Most Underrated
Calgary. I had them finishing behind Seattle. That was insanely stupid.
New York Rangers. Igor Shesterkin inherited Connor Hellebuyck’s mantle of best goalie in the world, and that’s why they’re here. The team looked pretty lacklustre by the “fancy stats” for most of the season.
Los Angeles. One of two playoff teams with a goal difference below +5. You’ve simply gotta lmao when that happens. Barely outscored their opponents over the course of a full season and they still snuck in somehow. It’s impressive, in a way.
Nashville. I don’t feel foolish for underrating the Predators, since I still think they’re a mediocre team. They just got excellent goaltending out of Juuse Saros, and sometimes that happens.
Columbus. They didn’t finish anywhere near the playoffs, but they also didn’t finish last in the Metropolitan as I expected them to. Good for them, I guess?
Awards Predictions
Hart: I said Connor McDavid, and he might win. Don’t have to be a genius to pick the consensus best-player-in-the-world (although Auston Matthews should at least be in the conversation for the title) to win the best-player trophy.
Art Ross: McDavid. Correct.
Norris: Cale Makar, who should and probably will win.
Rocket Richard: Auston Matthews. Ding ding ding! He won it last year too, so I can’t take too much credit for thinking he’d run it back.
Vezina: Vasilevskiy. Should be Shesterkin who wins it this year, but Vasilevskiy will be a good bet as long as Tampa consistently finishes near the top of the league.
Selke: Mark Stone. Dude just couldn’t stay healthy. Suffice it to say, he’s not a Selke contender right now.
Calder: Trevor Zegras. He won’t win, but at least he had a good season. A respectable choice, imo
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NHL Playoffs - 2017
Above are my predictions for the playoffs for the NHL 16-17 season. After a remarkable break out campaign from Connor McDavid, an amazing Columbus Blue Jackets coming out party and the many other wonderful stories that the NHL annually provides, it comes down to the best sporting time of the year. The moment, that every one of the 16 teams looks ahead at the next two months, hoping that they will write themselves into the history books forever. Whether it be an incredible overtime goal, a remarkable team effort, a bone crunching hit or a literal bone breaking shot block, the playoffs are where the players earn their money, glory and reputation. I really think that this year is as wide open as last year’s campaign and the Penguins and Sharks highlighted that, coming out of no where to battle it out in an epic fashion.
Overall Winner - Washington Capitals
This is the year that Alex Ovechkin and his star studded lineup take it all the way and raise the Cup. Ovechkin is still the man that everyone fears when you play the Capitals, however in the past 2 seasons, teamwork and role players have definitely been a major reason as to why the Caps are back to back President’s Trophy winners. Ovechkin had his second lowest scoring output of his career (excluding the 48 game lockout season) and far fewer shots, shot attempts and his second lowest career shooting percentage. You would expect his team to take a dip, however the Capitals are stacked with offensive and defensive weapons. 15 players scored 10 or more goals this season including a career high 33 from T.J Oshie and a monster 86 point season from Nicklas Backstrom. Braden Holtby had his third Vezina like season in a row (more on him later) and the Capitals bolster 4 defenseman that had 30 points or more. This has to be the year. They have the depth in every department and Barry Trotz needs to find a way to unleash the regular season Ovechkin who has had on 10 playoff goals in a single campaign. He needs to show up and the Caps need to find a way to get passed the second round. With a potential match up against the Penguins, the going will be tough, but if any Caps team is going to win, it is this one.
Biggest Potential Surprise - Columbus Blue Jackets
Now that it is April and the big names of Chicago, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Washington are being thrown around as cup favourites, people have seemingly forgotten that Columbus did not lose in the entire month of December. To be fair the Jackets are playing their worst hockey of the season at the worst possible time, however they have an unbelievable team and the talent to make some noise. Ever since their remarkable run they have been a respectable 23-19-4 to finish 50-24-8. While the recent stretch might not sound impressive, remember this is a team that last year went 34-40-8 last season. They have had impressive resilience and are now bolstering the talent required to make a move in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Led by a returned to form Foligno and leading scorer Cam Atkinson, the Blue Jackets have a lot of offensive depth. 12 players with 10 or more goals and 8 players with over 40 points gives you lots of scoring depth. Zach Werenski, David Savard and Seth Jones lead an very talented and youthful Defense that can score and put the hammer down on opposing offensive players (Can you imagine if pick number 2 Ryan Murray stepped up as well). With all this talent up front and down back, you can’t forget the performance of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky had a career best 2.06 GAA (led the league) a matching career best save percentage of .932 (led the league), a career best 7 shutouts (= third in the league) and a career best 41 wins (third in the league). An absolutely remarkable season by a now reliable and dominant goalie. The Blue Jackets definitely have a test with the reigning champs in the first round, but if they do get passed them, be prepared for them to have a huge post season.
Biggest Potential Flop - Minnesota Wild
I love the Wild and they have a number of players that are very talented, however I feel they do not bring anything special that wins you a playoff series. They have a quality defense, a quality offense and a fantastic season from Devan Dubynk, however when you think of their team everyone that has had a good season is doing it in an under the radar fashion. They are a great team and after years of playoff failures, many expect them to go on and make the finals (in fact they are commonly the 4th favourite team to win according to Odds Shark and 6th favourite according to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook). The problem in the past has been the Chicago Blackhawks and once again I expect that to be a huge problem for the under powered Wild. The Wild relied on a reformed Eric Staal, an aging defensive core and a breakout season from Granlund who scored 26 goals. In the prior 4 seasons of Grandlund’s career he had only scored 31 goals combined, so until he can bring it in the playoffs I remain hesitant to say he is the difference maker against a stacked Chicago team which still has the core 4 together of Seabrook, Keith, Kane and Toews. I expect another early exit for the Wild who must be cursing Chicago’s existence.
Player to Watch - Connor McDavid
This is an absolute no brainer. McDavid at 20 years of age became the Art Ross winner (likely Hart winner as the MVP) with 100 points. He ended the year with a 14 game point streak and since the beginning of 2017 has only had 5 games without scoring at least 1 point. The kid is an absolute beast and with 70 assists makes everyone him that much better. Maroon, Lucic and Draisaitl have experienced this first hand with 2 of the 3 having career seasons. He is also dynamic in turning defensive opportunities into break aways. He has scored so many break away goals/set up 2 on 1 goals due to his ability to read the play and also is incredible speed up and down the ice. It is his first experience with NHL playoff hockey and he has taken a team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2006. A big, rough and tumble team that can score goals with an impressive young goalie is definitely a good mix when you add in a 20 year old coming off a 100 point season. Expect the kid to make an impact against the Sharks straight away. Oh also, McDavid has enjoyed making the Sharks look like a joke with 4 goals and 4 assists in 5 games this season, which marked his best output against any team this season.
Make or Break Season - San Jose Sharks
Speaking of the Sharks, boy are they in for a challenge. A team renowned for choking and terrible output in the most crucial times, showed everyone just how much fight they had last season. Knocking off a very good Kings in 5, pulling out a clutch game 7 against a feisty Predators team and then blowing away the Blues after losing game 1. They were completely outclassed when it mattered most, but fought and fought right to the bitter end (Pavelski is probably still having nightmares about this miss). Now this is the year where I firmly believe their window will is well and truly close behind them when they eliminated. Compared with their opponent, the Sharks are much older and much more banged up. The Oilers are coming in with their full lineup, while the Sharks are surrounded by the Joe Thornton and Logan Couture injury cloud. You take the top 2 centers from any team and they look very shaky regardless of who they are (Imagine if this was McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins from the Oilers missing). What is the most troubling for the Sharks is they have key players that are aging/or unrestricted free agents. The core of Marleau (37), Joe Thornton (37), Joe Pavelski (32), Brent Burns (32), Paul Martin (36), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (30) and Joel Ward (36) are definitely a troubling sign for the Sharks. Especially when Marleau and Thornton are unrestricted and rumours suggest either Martin or Dillon will be scooped up by Las Vegas and the expansion draft. This may well and truly be the end of the San Jose Sharks as we know them. While this isn’t a bad thing, it just means that while Meier, Donskoi, Labanc and O’Regan are developing, guys like Burns and Pavelski will be wasted. Who knows, I could be wrong and these guys develop quickly and Doug Wilson can replace these leaving bodies with talent, but the future looks bleak. Many, many fans will tell you last year was the only chance this team had and it looks grim for the Sharks with the current injuries, lack of home ice and first round opponent. If the Sharks do get through the first round, the outcome looks much more promising however, so don’t count them out yet.
Conn Smythe Winner - Braden Holtby
Going along with the Capitals prediction to win, suggests they are going to need an absolutely stellar performance from their goalie. This is the case for every team that wins the Cup Finals. Just look at Matt Murray, Corey Crawford and Jonathan Quick’s efforts from the past few years as an example. If anyone can do it, it’s Braden Holtby. We have seen him put up his third 40 or more win season in a row and he has done so in career best fashion, posting bests in Goals Against, Save Percentage, Shutouts and was rewarded with the Jennings trophy. Holtby is extremely reliable in terms of his decision making and is renowned for making incredible saves to keep his team in games when they really don’t deserve to be. This season he has played less games than 2014-15 and 2015-16 and has the extra rest to carry into the playoffs. If the Capitals finally find their offense in the playoffs and Holtby continues his impressive run of performances, then he is no doubt going to be responsible for the Caps lifting Lord Stanley. He has never faltered for the Capitals in the playoffs, through 46 total games played he has 4 shutouts, a 937 save percent and a ridiculous 1.72 goals against. Statistics such as these and his impressive regular seasons of the past 3 years add up to a Conn Smythe winner if his skaters give him support.
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Sky Bet EFL Q&A: Charlton’s Chris Solly on the club’s many ups and downs
No-one has spanned the recent triumphs and tribulations of Charlton Athletic like Chris Solly.
The right- back has experienced a 101-point, 30-win League One title-winning season in 2011-12, successive 5-0, then 6-0 humiliations away from home in their dismal relegation campaign from the Championship, fan protests involving balls, pigs and crisp packets thrown on The Valley pitch and this season a revival under Lee Bowyer that has them looking forward to next week's League One play-offs.
Oh, and a fan song that describes him affectionately as 5ft 3in.
Charlton Athletic captain Chris Solly is in his testimonial year with the London club
The 28-year-old will reach 300 appearances from the club at the start of next season and is currently enjoying his testimonial year, a rare feat in today's game.
Solly is the final player to take our Sky Bet EFL Q&A in a season he hopes to go on until the final weekend of May.
A clear thinker about the game, he was once terrorized by the double wing threat of Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie in the same match and David Beckham.
Describe yourself on the pitch in 3 words.
Honest. Committed. Hard-working.
Describe yourself off the pitch in 3 words.
Relaxed. Chilled. Organized.
Best moment of your career so far?
Promotion to the Championship in the 2011-12 season. That whole season. It's hard to choose one moment but I'd say that year was the best time of my career so far, the most enjoyable.
Everyone looks back to the January time. The Sheffield games were the real moment when we stepped up and everyone thought: 'Charlton are very strong this year. They look like they are going to go up. '
We had Sheffield Wednesday away, won 1-0, then Sheffield United at home the following week, won 1-0, and they were probably our two closest rivals along with Huddersfield.
The right-back has experienced plenty of ups and downs during his time with the club
Beating them back-to-back was probably the real trigger for us thinking we would go on and win the league.
I turned 21 in the January of that season, which was the perfect age because we had a trip to Vegas as a reward for promotion, so I just about made it. A couple of the other lads didn't make the trip because they weren't old enough.
It just felt the norm for me. I was such a young age, I'd just broken into the team and you're fearless. You don't try to think-everything, you just take each game as it comes and you just enjoy it.
It's one of those things that I will maybe look back at the end of my career, or if it happens again like the success that we've had this season, you'll appreciate it more and take it in more
At the time, you don't realize how special it is, a record-breaking points total, you're just a part of it. I'll probably remember it more when I stop playing.
That team will go down in history at the club and that year will be remembered just as fondly as the playoff final of 20 years ago.
Who is the hardest opponent
There are two but they were in the same game and the same Crystal Palace team – (Yannick) Bolasie and (Wilfried) Zaha, switching wings every 20 minutes.
But they are the sort of games that I've always enjoyed as a full-back. The one-versus-one battle has always been the part of the game that I've enjoyed the most, trying to get the better of your winger.
They are both direct, but I'd say that Bolasie is a bit more direct where he can knock it fits you and run, whereas Zaha tries to keep the ball close to his feet and dribble fits you, could either go a bit more, feint and he shoots a lot more.
Bolasie was more of an out-and-out winger. Although he was righty playing on the left, he could go on the outside and use his pace.
Solfull Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha among the toughest opponents he has faced
Zaha started on my side and we had three or four duels in the first 15, 20 minutes. Then he switched wings, which is always a good thing for me.
I always think that if a player switches wings, it's because he doesn't fancy it on my side and that I must be doing okay.
But then 15 minutes later, he was back on my side, so maybe it's just something they did throughout the game just to keep the full-backs on their toes.
I talk to some wingers I'm facing, but in those sorts of games, I wouldn't really because the moment you start to ease off and relax, your concentration slips and in that one second they are fit you, which could be the difference.
Most embarrassing moment in football?
The season we've got relegated (relegated), we had a horrific week. We lost 5-0 at Huddersfield on the Tuesday night (in January 2016).
A change of management happened in the next couple of days, then we played Hull away on the Saturday and lost 6-0. That five-day period was the worst I've ever had in football. It was a bad season overall.
After we got battered on the Tuesday, the new manager (Jose Riga) made quite a few changes to the team for the Saturday. It looked a fairly strong team. We arrived at the stadium, got used to the pitch.
A few of the lads were chatting and I remember Roger Johnson saying to me: 'We look strong today – on paper. I think my brother was just going to get us back to a result today. " And then we lost 6-0.
You do feel guilty towards the fans. Huddersfield away on a Tuesday night is not a close away game. Charlton always travel in good numbers and we probably had 800 fans up there that night. It was devastating.
Solly delivers a cross during Charlton's recent Sky Bet League One match against Luton Town
Hull away on the Saturday was not the ideal game to follow it with. They had been in the Premier League not long before and we knew they were going to be a very strong team.
It's only the right thing to do about the fans at the end. You have to show your appreciation, as much as you know that you are going to get pelters back. You have to do it and just take it on the chin that they are giving you a bit of stick.
It's horrific. You're walking over there thinking: "I don't want to go over here," but you also know you have to. You should thank them for making the effort to come up and see you. It's part and parcel of the game. You have to take the bad times with the good.
I remember that the changing room was quite lively after the Tuesday game. Quite a lot of words were said. But for it to happen again on the Saturday, it was dead silence for 10 or 15 minutes. The boys were devastated. They had their heads down.
Which song gets you in the mood for a match?
I don't listen to music before the game. We have it in the dressing room and either Pearcey (Jason Pearce) or Dill will put their music on.
Dill (keeper Dillon Phillips) puts on more old school music, maybe a few 80s songs and he ' ll mix it up. I prefer that to listen to the latest R 'n' B nonsense.
A few of the lads will have their headphones on and they'll listen to their own playlist every week. Patrick Bauer is one that does that every week. I've never been like that. I'll sit there, read the program and try and relax, get ready for the warm-up.
What's your guilty food pleasure?
How many answers can I give you here? I haven't got enough fingers. A carrot cake or a cheesecake. A carrot cake is quite healthy. That's what I tell myself anyway. Any child or dessert.
If I go out to a restaurant, I'll always have a starter and a dessert as well as a main course. I try and eat healthy during the week and then Saturday if I've played, I'll more than likely have a takeaway on a Saturday night – an Indian or a Chinese.
Solly saw red in Charlton's recent League One match against Oxford at the Kassam Stadium
I think it's good to get that one meal out of your system and then go back to eating healthily during the week. Post-game as well, it's not so bad.
I used to love Nutella, but then I was getting migraines a lot and my missus put it down to the Nutella, so I don't have it any more
Which player in history would you like to play alongside – and why?
Going forward, David Beckham. He could stay wide. You just had to feed him, get round him and you know he had the delivery.
Another side of his game that's not really spoken about was his work-rate. He always tracked back. The relationship he had with Gary Neville at United for all those years went under the radar a little bit.
Neville had the license to bomb and overlap for fun knowing that Beckham would always cover him. And you knew that if you gave him the ball, he'd take a touch out of his feet and then deliver the ball onto the striker's head nine times out of ten.
Defensively, I'd say someone like (Virgil) van Dijk at Liverpool where someone like Andrew Robertson has the license to bomb on all day and to be very tight because he knows that anything in behind, van Dijk will sweep it up.
So you wouldn't have that thought that you'd be in a race with your winger if a ball was played in behind.
Liverpool's defensive rock Virgil van Dijk is a player Solly would love to play alongside
Which famous manager would you like to play for – and why?
I've had a lot of managers here at Charlton. For me personally if I ever go into that side of things, I've been lucky that I've had a lot of managers to be able to take what I thought were the positive bits of every one and put that all into one.
But if it's a modern-day manager, it would have to be (Pep) Guardiola. The way that Man City play, especially for his full-backs, if the ball is on the right-hand side, the left full-back will be in center midfield, in fourth holding midfield position.
We never seen a team do that before so you wonder how Guardiola is coaching them. I watched their game the other night where Kyle Walker was deep, almost a third center half, while Zinchenko was in center mid.
And then when they switched play, Zinchenko would come out wide and then Walker would go into that position.
It's a totally different way of playing the full-back position, but they seem to have a lot of success doing it.
I saw Vincent Kompany do an interview in which he said the one regret he has been in his career is not being coached by Guardiola at a younger age. He was 31, 32 maybe when Guardiola started coaching him.
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is the man Solly would most like to play under
He said that he learned so much in the last two years under him that he only wishes he was ten years younger when he had him.
I think Guardiola has revolutionized the game and he's done it in different countries. Everyone said the Premier League would be a different ball game, but he's come over here and broken all sorts of records.
You have to have the players to play the way he does, but if he came to Charlton in League One, I think we'd have a good chance or get automatic promotion with the way they play.
I'd love to see a manager drop like him drop down the levels and see how he gets on. You'd like to see it with players, too. The likes of Ronaldo come to League One instead of going to Juventus.
What would you be if you weren't a footballer?
I'm sure you get the same answer every time, but I came straight out of school and straight into a scholarship here at Charlton. At 15, I was having two days' release from school to come here and train, so football is all I've ever known.
I was always very sporty growing up, so I'd like to think I I'm involved in sports in some capacity, but honestly, I don't know. I'm the same now.
When I stop playing, I haven't got a clue what I'm going to do. Everything likes to think they can stay in the game, but there are only so many roles. I'm doing my badges.
I've done my B license. I'm doing my A license now and I'm enjoying that side of it. The scouting side has always interested me, too.
Tell us a secret that fans won't know…
Something very simple is that I'm not 5ft 3 I'm actually 5ft 8.5in (The Charlton fans' song sheet includes the timeless classic: "Chris Solly Solly / He's only 5ft 3 / He's better than John Terry / Chris Solly Solly").
A lot or people seem surprised when they see me. They say: "You aren't actually 5ft 3."
I used to have superstitions when I was younger. Nothing strange, but I'd never be the first one to put my boots on when we got out and I'd always put my left side on before my right.
Charlton fans support their side in a recent match at Gillingham as they chase promotion
Nowadays it's just if I have a good game, I'll try and do much the same the following game, but I think the majority of players would do that. I had one in 2011.
I had my tattoo done on my left arm on the Thursday, the game was on the Saturday and the tattooist said to me: "Try not to get it wet or scratched or dirty, So we become a tubigrip covering the middle part of my forearm and upper arm.
We won 3-0 (against Bournemouth in August 2011). It was the first game of the season, so I said, "I'll wear the tubigrip until we lose." We didn't lose until New Year's Eve (a 1-0 defeat at Leyton Orient), so I had the tubigrip on my arm for five months basically.
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MLB Power Rankings: Astros still team to beat, but race for No. 2 is tight
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It’s far too early to drastically alter our opinions about the 2018 Major League Baseball season. With teams only playing a handful of games, we don’t have a lot of evidence to know which teams will truly surprise and which will disappoint.
That means you shouldn’t expect anything too crazy in our first MLB Power Rankings post of the season. That’s right, Big League Stew is taking over the Power Rankings. We’ll be bringing you our ranks, with some quick thoughts, each week during the regular season.
[Still not too late to join a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league]
A note about how we’re going to be handling things: We’ll take a combination of team record and preseason expectations into account early on. The downside of this is that we might wind up being slow to praise a breakout team. The upside is that you don’t get the undefeated Pittsburgh Pirates in the top spot to open the season. They still get credit for their strong start, but we want to see more before they are among the elite teams.
With that said, let’s get to ranking. You can probably guess which team is in our top spot.
1. Houston Astros (6-1) Houston has picked up right where it left off a year ago — you know, when it won the World Series. The Astros have the best run differential in MLB coming into Wednesday’s action and if Gerrit Cole looks as good as he did in his debut, watch out, American League.
2. Washington Nationals (4-2) Bryce Harper has been smashing the ball this season, and that’s a good enough reason for the Nats to be among MLB’s best. Coming into play Wednesday, he led the league in homers and was tied for most RBIs.
3. Boston Red Sox (5-1) Their big offseason acquisition J.D. Martinez hasn’t done much yet, but no matter, Red Sox pitchers have allowed the third-fewest runs in the league. Their 2.21 team ERA is best so far in MLB. That’ll work.
The Yankees are going to win a lot of games thanks to their outfield. (AP Photo)
4. New York Yankees (4-2) They’ve been a little uneven so far, but the Yankees have showed us that when they’re good, they’re really good. Even with Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez off to tepid starts, the Yankees are getting it done with things like Didi Gregorius 8-RBI game.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers (2-5) No doubt, the Dodgers are feeling the loss of Justin Turner and are worried about closer Kenley Jansen’s performance. But we’re still not worried enough about L.A.’s slow start to boot them out of the top.
6. Chicago Cubs (2-3) The Cubs’ strikeout issues thus far have been slightly overblown. Playing a 17-inning game will do that. It’s still somewhat concerning the offense hasn’t taken advantage of pitchers yet, but they are too talented to keep struggling like this.
7. Cleveland Indians (2-3) José Ramírez’s slump-breaking home run Tuesday didn’t lead Cleveland to a win, but it should provide optimism that things about to turn for the club soon.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks (5-1) D-backs fans will likely take issue with being behind the Dodgers, since they’ve been the much better team to start the season, including a sweep of L.A. Keep this up and the D-backs won’t be behind the Dodgers too much longer.
9. Milwaukee Brewers (4-1) Turns out, Ryan Braun still has a lot left in the tank. His first home run of the year gave the team a shocking comeback win over the Padres. His second was a walk-off blast against the division-rival Cardinals.
10. Minnesota Twins (2-2) All the commotion about the Twins yelling about a ninth-inning bunt has distracted from the fact that Jose Berrios dominated in his first start. Berrios showed flashes of greatness last season, but if this is the year he completely breaks out and stays healthy, the Twins are going to be in a great position to get back into the postseason.
Shohei Ohtani has been as awesome as advertised with the Angels thus far. (AP Photo)
11. Los Angeles Angels (4-2) Shohei Ohtani is hitting dingers (two of ‘em now) and won his first game as a pitcher. What more could Angels fans want at this point besides a higher ranking on our list?
12. New York Mets (4-1) Mets fans have probably been holding their breath waiting for something bad to happen this season, but so far, it’s been pretty good. Even Matt Harvey looked strong in his first start.
13. Pittsburgh Pirates (4-0) The only undefeated team in baseball has captured our attention, but we’re not ready to overreact just yet. Taking three games from the Tigers isn’t a huge accomplishment these days, though it’s better than the alternative. We’re watching cautiously for now.
14. Colorado Rockies (2-3) Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: Rockies pitching has struggled. The team has a 6.21 ERA to start the season. You can’t blame it on Coors Field this time. All five of the team’s games have been on the road.
15. Seattle Mariners (3-1) The Mariners are trying to bust MLB’s longest postseason drought? Early verdict: They look exciting and capable of winning. They took two of three from Cleveland.
16. Toronto Blue Jays (4-2) Early returns on the Blue Jays: Not bad. They’re winning games. We’re still concerned about Josh Donaldson’s arm, though.
17. Chicago White Sox (2-2) The team’s surprising performance in the first two games made some think maybe the youngsters had arrived early. But as the bullpen showed in the last two games, this is still far from a complete team.
It’s been a mixed bag for the Cardinals to open the 2018 season. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
18. St. Louis Cardinals (2-3) The Cardinals have looked average so far, but against good competition. They’ve faced the Mets and the Brewers, so better results could be ahead.
19. Atlanta Braves (4-2) Chalk them up as one of this season’s early surprises. The Braves sit near the top of the NL East and are among the teams with the most runs scored in MLB. We’re just not sure they’ll be able to keep this up.
20. Baltimore Orioles (1-5) The lineup has potential to score a lot of runs, but so far it hasn’t been delivering. The Orioles have the worst run differential in baseball.
21. Tampa Bay Rays (1-5) The Rays’ first bullpen day wasn’t too bad. Ryan Yarbrough and Andrew Kittredge combined to give up three runs, but the team lost after the offense scored just two runs. A rainout prevented the team from using another bullpen day Monday, so we’ll need more time before we can rule the experiment a success or a failure.
22. Texas Rangers (2-4) The Rangers look like a team that can go either way, and so far it’s not the way they’re hoping. But they opened with the Astros, which is a tough task for anybody.
23. Miami Marlins (2-4) They’re not the worst team in the majors … yet. Both Dillon Peters and Caleb Smith managed to keep the Cubs’ bats quiet. Jarlin Garcia did the same over six strong relief innings in that 17-inning game. They are still just 2-4, but it could be worse, right?
Things haven’t been easy for Gabe Kapler and the Phillies early on. (AP Photo)
24. Philadelphia Phillies (1-4) The bullpen will be fried by June if they keep it up. To his credit, Gabe Kapler has fully accepted the criticism he’s received. It’s on him to show he can make the necessary adjustments to get the Phillies on track.
25. Oakland Athletics (2-4) The A’s have potential and could be an exciting team, but they haven’t been scoring as many runs as they could be — and it showed as the Angels beat them in three of four games.
26. San Francisco Giants (2-3) Joe Panik was finally able to convince someone else on the team to do something on offense. Panik’s three solo home runs were the team’s only source of offense until late Tuesday, when Evan Longoria belted a two-run shot. At least Panik won’t have to do it all on his own.
27. Detroit Tigers (1-4) We think we found the problem. Through five games, Detroit’s starters have put together a 3.03 ERA, keeping the team in games. The bullpen has been awful, combining for a 6.05 ERA to start the season.
28. Cincinnati Reds (1-3) Joey Votto has had a strange start to 2018. He’s swinging more than ever but making less contact than ever. He’s barely walked, and he’s seen his strikeout rate soar back to its previous levels. Does that mean anything? Probably not. Votto does a lot of weird stuff at the beginning of the season, and usually irons things out quickly.
29. San Diego Padres (1-4) They might have been the last team to win a game, but things aren’t that bad. The Padres would have won sooner if not for a ridiculous ninth-inning meltdown against the Brewers. New addition Eric Hosmer seems to be enjoying his new home, as he’s sprayed a league-leading four doubles all over Petco Park.
30. Kansas City Royals (1-3) The good: Jakob Junis looked like a possible breakout candidate in his first start, striking out six over seven scoreless innings. The bad: Pretty much everything else. As a team, the Royals haven’t reached the Mendoza line yet and still have a slugging percentage under .300.
– – – – – – –
Chris Cwik is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik
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The top 100 games of the 2017-18 college football season
We move closer to the top, this time counting down 40-11.
We did it. After 834 regular season games, 40 bowl games, 4,376 Nick Saban scowls, and one hell of a national championship game, the college football season is over. To remember and honor the season that was, I (along with a little help from the rest of the SB Nation college football crew) am going to count down the best 100 games of the season. We’ll unveil 30 games at a time on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, then count down the top 10 on Friday.
100 - 71
70 - 41
40 - 11
10 - 1 (Fri.)
Let’s get to the list:
40. Oct. 21: Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 35
After 41 combined points in the first three quarters of Kansas State’s homecoming battle with Oklahoma, the teams scored 36 in the fourth alone. On three occasions, OU took a touchdown lead, but the Sooners had to time the last one — a 22-yard Rodney Anderson run with seven seconds left — to make sure KSU didn’t have a chance to respond.
39. Sept. 29: Washington State 30, USC 27
USC nearly survived the regular season with national title hopes intact, except for a Friday night trip.
Ronald Jones’ 86-yard run helped the Trojans stake a 17-10 lead, but Washington State took a 27-20 lead on Jamal Morrow’s 23-yard reception in the final period. USC tied, but Morrow’s 35-yarder — WSU’s longest run of the entire season — set up Erik Powell’s field goal.
Dreams die in Pullman.
38. Oct. 28: Nebraska 25, Purdue 24
This was a good season for Purdue, with the Boilermakers rising to a bowl win in a single season under Jeff Brohm.
And this was a bad one for Nebraska, as the Huskers finished with four wins for the first time since 1962, the final year before Bob Devaney showed up to resurrect the program.
On the final Saturday in October, roles reversed. Bad-year Nebraska, facing a 24-12 deficit in the fourth quarter, surged by good-year Purdue.
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37. Sept. 3: Virginia Tech 31, West Virginia 24
by Alex Kirshner:
This was so good that it overcame being played in one of the worst stadiums in a league neither of these teams plays in. Thousands of fans had to skip tailgates or cram them in just before kickoff.
But once they were inside, Appalachian football’s biggest reunion of the season turned out to be a great one. West Virginia’s Will Grier aired the ball out all night, and Virginia Tech redshirt freshman Josh Jackson announced himself. Grier almost threw a touchdown in the final seconds to tie, but Tech held on with a fourth-down stop.
Virginia Tech took a lot of pride in hoisting the rivalry’s Black Diamond Trophy at midfield, with ex-coach Frank Beamer in the celebration at the start of a season that would end with his selection to the College Football Hall of Fame.
But nobody saw it, because they left to try and beat traffic.
36. Sept. 4: Tennessee 42, Georgia Tech 41
by Steven Godfrey:
This was as functional, effective, and entertaining as Tennessee would be in 2017. The Volunteers gave up 41 points and 655 yards to a team that would limp to 5-6, and the only reason the Vols escaped is because Tech made a bad read on a two-point conversion in OT. This game was the high-water mark.
Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
35. Sept. 9: New Mexico State 30, New Mexico 28 34. Dec. 2: New Mexico State 22, South Alabama 17 33. Dec. 29: New Mexico State 26, Utah State 20
If you’re a loyal Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody listener (and if you aren’t, why not?), you know that I announced my pet cause as rooting for New Mexico State to reach a bowl and end a 57-year drought.
It began with a wild catch and a rivalry win in Albuquerque ...
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... and ended with back-to-back field stormings. First, NMSU took down South Alabama to reach six wins and qualify for the Arizona Bowl.
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Then, the Aggies beat Utah State in overtime.
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If you watch this and still want to tell me there are too many bowls, then forgive me for the snide words. New Mexico State’s run was the best thing about college football in 2017.
32. Nov. 4: Wyoming 16, Colorado State 13
Fell for the okie-doke there. @wyo_football rips off a huge 40-yard-run to get into scoring position. http://pic.twitter.com/BeuXCwYBCM
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 5, 2017
Glorious.
31. Oct. 13: Syracuse 27, Clemson 24 30. Nov. 4: Clemson 38, NC State 31
On Oct. 13, Dabo Swinney’s retooled squad headed to upstate New York with a banged-up quarterback. Kelly Bryant struggled, then got hurt again in the second quarter; backup Zerrick Cooper did no better.
Syracuse dictated the terms, but Tanner Muse’s 63-yard fumble return kept the champs close, and Travis Etienne’s 52-yard run tied the game heading into the fourth quarter. Syracuse’s Eric Dungey (278 yards, three touchdowns) engineered a final field goal drive. Storm the field.
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Three weeks later, NC State led at halftime in Raleigh, until the Tigers seemed to put the game away with a 21-7 run keyed by Tavien Feaster’s 89-yard score. But State cut the lead to 38-31 with under two minutes left and forced a three-and-out.
Ryan Finley completed three passes to work the ball inside the Tiger 30, then hit this fourth-down pass.
Only ... that’s an illegal shift at the bottom. On a fourth-down do-over, Clemson ended the game with a pick.
29. Nov. 25: SMU 41, Tulane 38
Literally as close to bowl eligibility as possible.
SMU Football Video
28. Oct. 28: Northwestern 39, Michigan State 31
Northwestern won three consecutive overtime games on its way to an eight-game winning streak. It took three OT periods for the Wildcats to put away a Michigan State ranked 16th at the time. It also took a play in which State’s Brian Lewerke both fumbled and threw an interception.
27. Dec. 28: TCU 39, Stanford 37 26. Dec. 29: Wake Forest 55, Texas A&M 52
Alamo Bowl Second Half TCU is one of the greatest teams ever. Two years after completing a 31-point Alamo comeback against Oregon (the second-best game of 2015), the Horned Frogs turned a 12-point deficit into a win against Stanford. Jalen Reagor’s 93-yard catch and run made it 31-29, then Desmon White’s 76-yard punt return gave the Frogs the lead. Stanford went ahead again, but Cole Bunce’s 33-yard field goal sealed the deal. And there’s always a shirt change involved when TCU’s unleashing a comeback.
The next day in Charlotte, Wake and A&M had a track meet. Despite a 31-0 mid-game run, Wake trailed in the fourth. But the final two drives of quarterback John Wolford’s career were touchdowns. The Demon Deacons needed both. After A&M responded, the Deacs went 69 yards and won on Matt Colburn’s short score.
25. Oct. 7: Miami 24, Florida State 20
Six seconds left, seven-game Florida State winning streak against Miami on the line, Malik Rosier to Darrell Langham.
24. Oct. 7: Navy 48, Air Force 45
Nuts from the get-go.
Navy scored on runs of 91 and 75 yards.
Air Force scored on passes of 51 and 59.
Navy went up 28-7, then Air Force scored four touchdowns in 18 minutes to take a 45-41 lead with under two minutes left.
Too much time on the clock.
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23. Nov. 11: Alabama 31, Mississippi State 24
Alabama nearly fell victim to the SEC’s Bulldogs, blowing a chance to finish a comeback with a field goal but scoring a huge touchdown by little-used freshman DeVonta Smith.
I’m not talking about the national title game. I’m talking about two months earlier in Starkville.
Mississippi State played brilliant ball control, held Bama to 56 snaps, and led most of the way. But the Tide tied in the fourth and survived when, on that 56th snap, Jalen Hurts hit Smith for a 26-yard catch and run. MSU couldn’t complete a Hail Mary.
Smith had seven catches all year. Two were game-winners.
22. Oct. 14: Boston College 45, Louisville 42
Between mid-November 2014 and mid-October 2017, Boston College scored more than 30 on an FBS opponent just twice. Over the final six games of the 2017 regular season, the Eagles did it five times. And their hot streak began with a perfect foil: Lamar Jackson.
Louisville led 21-7 in the first half, and BC had punted on four of its first six possessions. But freshman AJ Dillon scored with 51 seconds left in the second quarter, then twice in the second half. His 75-yard run gave BC a stunning 42-28 lead with 12 minutes left, but Jackson’s 41-yard score tied the game back up.
The Cardinals were driving with under two left when Kamrin Moore recovered a fumble. Seven Dillon rushes — he had 39 for 272 yards — set up a kick at the buzzer.
http://pic.twitter.com/zCG1H43ArL
— BC Eagles (@BCEagles) October 14, 2017
21. Oct. 7: Michigan State 14, Michigan 10 20. Nov. 4: Michigan State 27, Penn State 24
By Jason Kirk:
TCU in the second half of an Alamo Bowl. Michael Jordan with a dubious illness. Lil Wayne in the late aughts. Mark Dantonio in disgusting weather.
Knowing of the MSU coach’s powers made the Michigan game ominous. The Wolverines surely knew they’d need a comfortable lead — in this series: roughly five points — before the forecasted rain arrived. But the Spartans gained a 14-3 lead and docked the tugboat, then pointed and laughed as Michigan kept passing in a downpour.
One month later, the Nittany Lions were doomed once lightning forced a delay. Their fate dimmed as the delay reached three hours, with players sustained by emergency pizza and Chick-fil-A. Seven hours after the first kick, Matt Coghlin hit the last one and splashed across wet turf.
NEVER DOUBTED HIM FOR A MINUTE! http://pic.twitter.com/z4jGFVNgLc
— The Only Colors (@TheOnlyColors) November 4, 2017
19. Dec. 9: Army 14, Navy 13
by Steven Godfrey:
In 2016, Army broke Navy’s 14-game winning streak in the series, but this season was Jeff Monken’s true proof of concept win over the Midshipmen. Navy wasn’t down to a third string QB this time, and for the first time in decades (literally, decades!) the two service academies looked like equals.
18. Nov. 4: Oklahoma 62, Oklahoma State 52 17. Nov. 18: Kansas State 45, Oklahoma State 40
The two most exhausting shootouts in Big 12 play took place in Stillwater.
First, you had the most bedlam of all Bedlam matchups. After only one of the first four possessions resulted in points, OU and OSU scored on 11 of the next 12. At halftime, the teams had combined for 76 points and 645 yards.
Marquise Brown’s 77-yard TD made it 55-45 OU, but OSU drove 75 yards to cut the lead again. When Chad Whitener picked off a Baker Mayfield pass in the end zone with three minutes left, OSU had a chance to steal it. But a fourth-and-8 pass from the OU 38 fell incomplete, and Trey Sermon’s 53-yard run put the game away.
Baker Mayfield on why he wasn’t going crazy celebrating tonight: “Winning around here is expected. Winning against Oklahoma State is expected.”
— Max Olson (@max_olson) November 5, 2017
Two weeks later, OSU still had its sights on a major bowl when 5-5 Kansas State came to town. The Cowboys led 10-7 when Byron Pringle struck. He had four scores of 47 or more yards, all on seven touches. And with 20 minutes left, KSU had a 45-20 lead.
It almost wasn’t enough. Three OSU touchdowns in five minutes made it 45-40 with four minutes left, and after a KSU three-and-out, the Pokes had the ball with a chance to win.
16. Sept. 9: Georgia 20, Notre Dame 19
Jake Fromm’s first start began what nearly became a national title run. The Dawgs relied on their defense, and it worked, in part because of a late Rodrigo Blankenship field goal and this absurd Terry Godwin catch on a third-and-goal.
15. Nov. 11: Boise State 59, Colorado State 52
After a 2-2 start that featured a confusing blowout loss to Virginia, Boise State caught fire. The Broncos would win nine of 10, but their mid-November trip to Fort Collins nearly went awry. It typically does when you spot a talented home team a 28-3 advantage.
The Broncos needed all 60 minutes to cut Colorado State’s lead to zero. Alex Mattison’s 70-yard run made it 35-24 early in the third, and Sean Modster’s 13-yard reception made it 52-45 with 1:41 remaining. Star receiver Cedrick Wilson recovered an onside kick, and five plays later, the game was tied.
In OT, Mattison gave Boise the advantage, but CSU was in position until Leighton Vander Esch forced a fumble at the Boise 5. Comeback complete.
14. Oct. 7: WMU 71, Buffalo 68
At some point, you go from wishing a game would end to praying it never does. You’d have to ask the 17,048 in attendance at UB Stadium where that line was, but I’m guessing it was somewhere around the fourth overtime.
It looked as if this would be a routine road win for the defending MAC champion. But Buffalo caught back up, and a field goal with 34 seconds left sent the game to OT. And OT, and OT, and OT, and OT, and OT, and OT.
The teams traded TDs in each of the first two overtime periods, then went scoreless in the third. Each scored touchdowns with two-point conversions in the fourth, then each missed NCAA-mandated two-pointers in the fifth and sixth. When Buffalo settled for a field goal in OT No. 7, it opened the door, and Franklin ran through it.
The funniest part: It was over in four hours and 31 minutes, only 15 minutes longer than Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, which didn’t go to OT.
13. Dec. 23: USF 38, Texas Tech 34
Eleven seconds left in the Birmingham Bowl, and USF has trailed for most of the game. Quinton Flowers’ last pass:
College football is going to miss the hell out of Flowers. And no, this isn’t his last appearance on this list.
12. Dec. 23: Army 42, San Diego State 35
by Steven Godfrey:
How good is Army? SDSU, one of the most talented G5 programs in the nation, finished with 10 wins, two wins over Pac-12 teams, a No. 34 ranking in overall S&P+, and losses to only the Mountain West’s division champs and ... Army.
You almost certainly didn’t see this game because it was crammed into a holiday afternoon, but after SDSU’s great Rashaad Penny scored his fourth touchdown to give the Aztecs a 35-28 lead with under six minutes, the Black Knights drove 72 yards like a wood chipper welded to a go cart.
Emotional wins over other services academies are comfort food, but this was different. Army beat a really good team, full stop.
11. Dec. 2: UCF 62, Memphis 55
In September, UCF crushed Memphis, 40-13. That was the third of seven straight double-digit wins to start the Knights’ season.
By the end, Memphis was ready for a rematch. The Tigers won seven in a row to win the AAC West and a conference title shot in Orlando.
UCF built a 17-7 lead, but Memphis responded, going on a 24-7 run. It was 34-31, Memphis, when UCF went on a 17-0 run. But the Tigers again responded, tying with 4:13 left and picking off McKenzie Milton at the end of regulation.
Memphis kicked off OT with a 15-yard strike from Riley Ferguson to star Anthony Miller. UCF responded, then scored first in OT No. 2. After a huge fourth-and-7 catch by Miller, Tre Neal picked off Ferguson at the UCF 4 to clinch a New Year’s bid.
Check back tomorrow as we unveil the top 10 games of the year.
100 - 71
70 - 41
40 - 11
10 - 1 (Fri.)
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The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution
With tomorrow being Thanksgiving (Happy Thanksgiving!), The Outlet Pass has arrived one day earlier than normal this week. Enjoy!
1. In Honor of Thanksgiving, Here’s a Fake Trade We Can All Be Thankful For
Cleveland gets: Marc Gasol Memphis gets: Brooklyn’s first-round pick in 2018, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert
When Gasol first signed his five-year $110 million deal nearly two and half years ago, popular thought was father time would tarnish it sooner than later. This was something the Memphis Grizzlies had to do, even while fully understanding the odds-on risk attached. (A broken foot suffered the following February increased the likelihood of it being a sunk cost.)
Instead, at 33 years old and in his 10th season, with a new coach, overhauled system, and personal submission to the three-point line, Gasol is still kicking as a borderline All-Star, albeit one whose crater-sized impact in Memphis isn’t as expansive as it used to be.
According to Synergy Sports, Gasol is currently the least efficient player in the league when he gets double-teamed in the post. Some of this is thanks to a small sample size, diminishing athleticism and curbed quickness, but his surrounding personnel deserves a smidge of blame, too. Even though some of their shooting percentages are up, opposing teams are still open to doubling off Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of Memphis’ roster.
A move to Cleveland would do freaking wonders for Gasol’s one-on-one game. The attention LeBron James demands is unrivaled, and picturing those two surrounded by three dead-eye snipers—like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, healthy Isaiah Thomas, or Jae Crowder—is a daydream. James has never played with someone like Gasol: A pass-first center who can space the floor, anchor an excellent defense, and singlehandedly create open threes on the weakside when he goes to work on the block.
And just think about the lineups Ty Lue could utilize with LeBron on the bench. Gasol and Love, by themselves, could become the NBA’s mightiest frontcourt tandem this side of New Orleans. Gasol helps in a likely Finals rematch against the Golden State Warriors in a way very few players can. He’s a savant on both ends.
The risk in trading a lottery pick for any player who can opt out of his contract in 2019, let alone a declining 33-year-old who plays the league’s least attractive position and would have to sacrifice a whole bunch of touches overnight, is an obvious risk—even if said pick is owned by a Brooklyn Nets squad that figures to finish with the sixth or seventh worst record and not the first or second.
But let’s play out one possible scenario if they don’t make a seismic trade: Cleveland adds a borderline-washed-up buyout candidate, loses in the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals, lands the sixth pick, watches LeBron leave in free agency, and is bad forever. If surrendering the Brooklyn pick for someone like Gasol is possible, then convincing James to stay is the right move.
Meanwhile, Memphis should do this in a heartbeat. Injuries around the Western Conference are keeping their playoff odds on a respirator, but Mike Conley’s weary Achilles tendon isn’t really allowing them to make up much ground. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last ten, with an offense that ranks 22nd despite them never, ever turning the ball over.
The smart long-term play here is to squeeze as much as they can get for Gasol, then rebuild around two lottery picks, with one potentially landing in the top five, in a five-player draft. They can also move on from Thompson and maybe even get a late first-rounder for his service as well. Memphis already has its own top-eight-protected first-round pick headed to Boston in 2019 (which becomes unprotected in 2021), so the best time to replenish their roster with high-upside youth is today.
2. Victor Oladipo…
Photo by Steve Mitchell - USA TODAY Sports
...has more points than Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and...Russell Westbrook. The Indiana Pacers have had a top-10 offense all year long despite not having Myles Turner (the dude everyone expected to be their best player) for seven games. Oladipo deserves a statue.
3. It’s Time to Expand Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Role
The Wizards are an obscenely dominant basketball team when John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. share the floor, outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions. This makes sense. Three of those players are on a max contract and the fourth is a 21-year-old southpaw who’s shooting 47 percent from above the break.
Washington knows what it has with its three best players, but Oubre Jr.’s growth is the variable worth watching. Right now he’s still raw and able to impact games with his athleticism, energy, and length. But knowing the ball ultimately starts in Wall or Beal’s hands—particularly throughout the postseason—it’s worth wondering what type of developmental path Washington should try and set their moldable Sixth Man on.
Oubre Jr. has only run a handful of pick-and-rolls this season, and, to nobody’s surprise, whenever he does dribble off a screen and try to make a play his timing and vision are both a little off.
Despite a leap in playing time, his assist to usage ratio is still near the bottom at his position (and down from where it was last season). He averages as many potential assists per game as DeAndre Jordan—fewer than Steven Adams and Tyson Chandler—and his 20.9 passes per game are fifth fewest in the entire league among all players who average at least 25 minutes.
This doesn’t make him selfish. Oubre Jr. is happy and willing to swing the ball and forfeit his own good shot so a teammate can have a better one. His job is to finish plays instead of start them, but given Washington’s routine bench struggles, it’d be a godsend if Oubre Jr. could quickly grow to become a reliable secondary or primary ball-handler when Wall and Beal both rest.
If the organization’s plan is to win with this foursome leading the way, the Wizards would be wrong to clone another Porter instead of encouraging Oubre Jr. to become a more versatile offensive weapon. In about eight fewer minutes per game, he touches the ball less than Jeff Green. It isn’t too early to diversify Oubre Jr.’s responsibilities. When you’re a good team that knows it’ll make the playoffs, that’s exactly what the regular season is for.
4. Everyone is Surprised by Portland’s Secret Weapon Except LeBron James
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to turn back the hands of time by deploying Jusuf Nurkic and Caleb Swanigan in their starting lineup. The mammoth-sized duo was a predictable disaster, clogging up driving lanes for C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, preventing either big from having as much room to operate in the post, and creating at least one mismatch on the defensive end that could be exploited by a more modernized frontcourt.
Despite going 2-1 during this week-long experiment—that was partly induced by injuries elsewhere on the roster—Portland consistently found itself in a hole from the jump, causing Blazers head coach Terry Stotts to start the third quarter of last Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic with Pat Connaughton, instead of Swanigan, on the court—a game-saving halftime adjustment. (Stotts’s final straw came two nights later when the Blazers scored 82 points in a very bad loss against the Sacramento Kings. Noah Vonleh has started at the four since.)
The buried lede here is that while Portland struggled to score trotting out two slow frontcourt players who don’t complement one another in any way, what they discovered during this same stretch is a three-guard unit that could be their secret weapon.
Lillard and McCollum are an obvious staple that create myriad headaches for the opposition. Throw Shabazz Napier into the mix and it’s pandemonium. The trio only played 20 minutes last season, but in 38 minutes this year they’ve blitzed opponents by 38 points per 100 possessions.
Last summer, Evan Turner was paid a handsome sum to be the ball-handler who could enable Portland’s two franchise guards to work off the ball, decimate opponents off screens and rouse panic by setting paralyzing picks for each other on the weakside. He can still do that, especially from the block when backing down smaller defenders. But replace Turner with Napier and install a versatile wing like Mo Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and all of a sudden the court becomes a hornet’s nest.
The offensive upside is clear: three ball handlers who can shoot, drive, and pass, constantly racing around to kick dirt in your eyes, is hard to slow down. But so far (small-sample-size alert!) they’ve also been able to hold their own on the defensive end, in part because Napier plays like an unswattable mosquito whose hands and feet never stop moving.
But there are limits to being “frisky” when you aren’t catching an opponent off guard, and some of their success is because Napier’s three-point percentage is actively burning a hole in the ozone layer. That doesn’t mean this speedy triad should be demoted or even stuffed in glass as a “Break-in-Case-of-Emergency” axe. Stotts should ride this unique group as long as he can, knowing few teams have the personnel to match up with it on both ends.
5. Jimmy Butler is Sacrificing Too Much
The Timberwolves are not the NBA’s most disappointing team. Since November 1st, they own a top-10 defense, and for the whole season they’re outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson share the floor. But this team, at 10-7, feels disappointing.
They’ve yet to find a way to synchronize their overwhelming talent in a way that accentuates each individual’s skill-set, and startling losses against the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons (a game they should’ve won, considering they were home, with a day of rest, against a team that’d just dropped two in a row) have been the result.
Given his contract situation, past performance, and high expectations, Butler’s struggle to look like himself is probably the team’s largest concern. Nobody should’ve expected a fluid overnight fit, but 15 games into his seventh season, the three-time All-Star has yet to find any rhythm in a system he’s already familiar with. Sacrifice is wonderful and necessary, but the degree to which Butler has altered his role to appease Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague is a little excessive.
What’s best for him is probably also best for the Timberwolves. Instead, watching him play he looks out of rhythm, like he doesn’t know when to hunt and when to be passive. The degree of difficulty in some of Butler’s scoring situations has been higher than it should be, too, given the influx of talent by his side. Last year, 17.1 percent of Butler’s shots were hoisted when the shot clock was “late” or “very late,” according to NBA.com. This year, that’s up to 25.9 percent. He has more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which sounds nice but has never been his strength.
According to Synergy Sports, Butler’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are down 11 percent from last season. What was once a tool he used to carve defenses up has been more of a dull blade.
Butler’s usage is down, he’s touching the ball 11 fewer times per game, his turnover rate is at a career high, and his free-throw rate is at a career low. That last point is crucial. What initially elevated Butler to an elite level was his ability to draw contact and live at the line. Last season, he was fouled on 20.1 percent of his shots, which ranked in the 98th percentile among all wings. That percentage is currently half what it was. (A plethora of pull-up twos are acceptable when you live at the free-throw line; he’s not quite Tobias Harris, but trending in that direction.)
So much of this is because Minnesota’s roster simply isn’t conducive for a slash-first-ask-questions-later bulldog like Butler. His drives to the basket are now more complicated than Catherine Zeta-Jones vs. one million lasers, in large part because defenses are ready and willing to help off a majority of his teammates.
There are few in-house alterations that can make life easier for Butler, but he hardly ever plays with Nemanja Bjelica (who, ho-hum, is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league right now); in the 52 minutes they’ve shared the floor Minnesota has obliterated everything. (General side note: Gibson has been awesome but Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad have not—play Bjelica more often Thibs!)
There’s no need to panic in Minnesota. But youth, lack of shooting, and non-existent depth at the wing are concerns they’ll have to navigate the rest of the season. Putting the ball in Butler’s hands more often won’t solve them, but Jamal Crawford, Teague, and Wiggins should not have a higher usage rate than he does.
Among all players who’ve seen the floor for about the same or fewer minutes than Butler this season, Evan Fournier, Jayson Tatum, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeremy Lamb, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic have all scored more points. Something needs to change.
6. Toronto’s Offense Is Official
Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto’s offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
Last season, the Raptors ranked dead last in assist rate. (They were 28th in November during the 2016-17 season.) This year, they’re up to 14th, with 17 more passes per game. They’re 14th in pace (up from 22nd last season), shooting way fewer long twos and a lot more threes. Paths to the rim are wider and open more frequently. The result? They rank fourth in offense and third in effective field goal percentage.
It’s growth in real time, partly due to the infusion of youth from guys like OG Anunoby (the most underrated rookie in an abnormally loaded class), Fred VanVleet (whose name I thought was “Van Fleet” for about two years), Delon Wright (who just dislocated his shoulder), and a few others.
Toronto’s two lynch pins are doing their part and C.J. Miles is flashing Ryan Anderson-esque range. The ball moves better when DeMar DeRozan isn’t on the floor, but that’s also when their offensive rating drops to its lowest point. Probably because the guy’s footwork makes it look like he’s hovering two inches above the court at all times.
DeRozan jacked up three shots beyond the arc in the opening minutes of Sunday’s win against the Wall-less Wizards. While still low, his three-point rate is exactly double what it was last season. They aren't perfect, but Toronto's evolutionary shot profile makes them the second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
7. Orlando Treats the Three-Point Line With Too Much Reverence
The Magic should shine on defense. They have athletes who excel at key positions and a coach who’s known for extracting brick-wall execution from much less physical ability.
But after a hot start shooting the ball, Orlando’s defense has become one of the league’s 10 worst. Part of that’s due to injuries up and down the roster, and high usage big men—like Nikola Vucevic—who have known limitations. But a bit of their struggle can be explained by an aggressive “stay home!” attitude towards the three-point line.
Orlando’s defenders, as twitchy as most of them are, have been directed to form a permanent fence at the arc. They don’t allow swing passes to open threats on the weakside and aim to make outside shooters feel claustrophobic. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando holds its opponents to a 27 percent three-point rate, which is second-lowest in the league. And from there, the strategy of always being in position to contest outside shots has worked pretty well, with opponents only making 34.5 percent of their threes (though that’s likely a bit more happenstance than strategic ingenuity).
On the surface, this is a rousing success! But in reality it’s like they’re hermetically sealing a body part that actually needs reconstructive surgery. Here’s an example:
At the top, Aaron Gordon does a good job keeping Joe Ingles from getting to the middle of the floor, leaping up and forcing him left. But as the Australian swingman drives towards Vucevic, neither Elfrid Payton nor Evan Fournier pinch in to tag the rolling Derrick Favors. Instead, they treat Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell like they’re Splash Brothers when, actually, they're Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell. Favors snatches Ingles’s pocket pass and finishes with an easy dunk.
The moral of the story: Personnel matters. It’s great that the Magic are executing their coach’s scheme and denying three-point attempts en mass in a league that’s filled with teams that are obsessed with that exact shot, but nothing will ever be more efficient than a layup, and nobody is allowing more of those than the Magic.
8. The Willie Cauley-Stein Bandwagon Has Plenty of Room
Photo by Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports
I will forever believe that Willie Cauley-Stein is a useful, if not good, basketball player. He’s my personal equivalent to how a specific segment of NBA Twitter once felt (feels?) about Anthony Randolph. If Cauley-Stein was, like, seven percent more confident and nine percent more aggressive, with a point guard who draws attention, manipulates back-line rotations, and can shoot, he’d be Steven Adams.
Cauley-Stein actually made a three last week, too, and is one of a few centers who’s defended Joel Embiid without much help and not been steamrolled in the process. I want nothing more than to see him develop outside of Sacramento, not sharing the court with Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Is that too much to ask?
9. You Can’t Help But Respect Carmelo Anthony’s Commitment to Being Carmelo Anthony
Before clarifying is words and backtracking from the belief that he, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook need to be more selfish in order for the Oklahoma City Thunder to find offensive nirvana, Carmelo Anthony concluded that he and his two All-Star teammates are instinctive players who need to be more instinctive.
Even though his instincts have been wrong for quite some time, that’s a perfectly fine thing to believe. But if I played for the Thunder and read this quote, I'd refrain from ever passing him the ball. On top of a defensive demeanor that exudes the same amount of energy and attention I used to display on Thanksgiving morning throughout my early 20’s*, Anthony’s assist to usage ratio is only higher than nine percent of fellow forwards around the NBA. He could wear wide receiver gloves sprayed with stickum for an entire quarter and nobody would notice the difference.
*The below isn’t a great reflection of Oklahoma City’s collective effort, but Anthony somehow manages to make everyone else look like they're hustling their ass off. He airballs a jumper and then backpedals to midcourt as the rest of his teammates turn to run.
Salute.
10. Donovan Mitchell’s Audaciousness Is Inspiring
The Utah Jazz are in a sad place, but, on the bright side, they also have Donovan Mitchell, a fearless firecracker with more responsibilities on his plate than any rookie on a decent team should. Just look at this wraparound pass to Rodney Hood, the finishing touch on Utah’s execution of a Hammer action.
Freeze the clip at the exact moment the ball leaves his fingertips. Even though Mitchell knows Hood is about to (probably) spring free in the corner, it still must feel a little scary to sidearm a ball the length of the baseline towards empty space. It arrives a little low, but that's nitpicking. This was hard and he made it look easy.
Most of the 21-year-old’s offensive numbers are dreadful, but bold, trustworthy traits seen in sequences like this are enough to convince me the Jazz have a keeper.
The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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The Outlet Pass: Butler’s Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre’s Evolution
With tomorrow being Thanksgiving (Happy Thanksgiving!), The Outlet Pass has arrived one day earlier than normal this week. Enjoy!
1. In Honor of Thanksgiving, Here’s a Fake Trade We Can All Be Thankful For
Cleveland gets: Marc Gasol Memphis gets: Brooklyn’s first-round pick in 2018, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert
When Gasol first signed his five-year $110 million deal nearly two and half years ago, popular thought was father time would tarnish it sooner than later. This was something the Memphis Grizzlies had to do, even while fully understanding the odds-on risk attached. (A broken foot suffered the following February increased the likelihood of it being a sunk cost.)
Instead, at 33 years old and in his 10th season, with a new coach, overhauled system, and personal submission to the three-point line, Gasol is still kicking as a borderline All-Star, albeit one whose crater-sized impact in Memphis isn’t as expansive as it used to be.
According to Synergy Sports, Gasol is currently the least efficient player in the league when he gets double-teamed in the post. Some of this is thanks to a small sample size, diminishing athleticism and curbed quickness, but his surrounding personnel deserves a smidge of blame, too. Even though some of their shooting percentages are up, opposing teams are still open to doubling off Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of Memphis’ roster.
A move to Cleveland would do freaking wonders for Gasol’s one-on-one game. The attention LeBron James demands is unrivaled, and picturing those two surrounded by three dead-eye snipers—like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, healthy Isaiah Thomas, or Jae Crowder—is a daydream. James has never played with someone like Gasol: A pass-first center who can space the floor, anchor an excellent defense, and singlehandedly create open threes on the weakside when he goes to work on the block.
And just think about the lineups Ty Lue could utilize with LeBron on the bench. Gasol and Love, by themselves, could become the NBA’s mightiest frontcourt tandem this side of New Orleans. Gasol helps in a likely Finals rematch against the Golden State Warriors in a way very few players can. He’s a savant on both ends.
The risk in trading a lottery pick for any player who can opt out of his contract in 2019, let alone a declining 33-year-old who plays the league’s least attractive position and would have to sacrifice a whole bunch of touches overnight, is an obvious risk—even if said pick is owned by a Brooklyn Nets squad that figures to finish with the sixth or seventh worst record and not the first or second.
But let’s play out one possible scenario if they don’t make a seismic trade: Cleveland adds a borderline-washed-up buyout candidate, loses in the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals, lands the sixth pick, watches LeBron leave in free agency, and is bad forever. If surrendering the Brooklyn pick for someone like Gasol is possible, then convincing James to stay is the right move.
Meanwhile, Memphis should do this in a heartbeat. Injuries around the Western Conference are keeping their playoff odds on a respirator, but Mike Conley’s weary Achilles tendon isn’t really allowing them to make up much ground. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last ten, with an offense that ranks 22nd despite them never, ever turning the ball over.
The smart long-term play here is to squeeze as much as they can get for Gasol, then rebuild around two lottery picks, with one potentially landing in the top five, in a five-player draft. They can also move on from Thompson and maybe even get a late first-rounder for his service as well. Memphis already has its own top-eight-protected first-round pick headed to Boston in 2019 (which becomes unprotected in 2021), so the best time to replenish their roster with high-upside youth is today.
2. Victor Oladipo…
Photo by Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports
…has more points than Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and…Russell Westbrook. The Indiana Pacers have had a top-10 offense all year long despite not having Myles Turner (the dude everyone expected to be their best player) for seven games. Oladipo deserves a statue.
3. It’s Time to Expand Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Role
The Wizards are an obscenely dominant basketball team when John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. share the floor, outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions. This makes sense. Three of those players are on a max contract and the fourth is a 21-year-old southpaw who’s shooting 47 percent from above the break.
Washington knows what it has with its three best players, but Oubre Jr.’s growth is the variable worth watching. Right now he’s still raw and able to impact games with his athleticism, energy, and length. But knowing the ball ultimately starts in Wall or Beal’s hands—particularly throughout the postseason—it’s worth wondering what type of developmental path Washington should try and set their moldable Sixth Man on.
Oubre Jr. has only run a handful of pick-and-rolls this season, and, to nobody’s surprise, whenever he does dribble off a screen and try to make a play his timing and vision are both a little off.
Despite a leap in playing time, his assist to usage ratio is still near the bottom at his position (and down from where it was last season). He averages as many potential assists per game as DeAndre Jordan—fewer than Steven Adams and Tyson Chandler—and his 20.9 passes per game are fifth fewest in the entire league among all players who average at least 25 minutes.
This doesn’t make him selfish. Oubre Jr. is happy and willing to swing the ball and forfeit his own good shot so a teammate can have a better one. His job is to finish plays instead of start them, but given Washington’s routine bench struggles, it’d be a godsend if Oubre Jr. could quickly grow to become a reliable secondary or primary ball-handler when Wall and Beal both rest.
If the organization’s plan is to win with this foursome leading the way, the Wizards would be wrong to clone another Porter instead of encouraging Oubre Jr. to become a more versatile offensive weapon. In about eight fewer minutes per game, he touches the ball less than Jeff Green. It isn’t too early to diversify Oubre Jr.’s responsibilities. When you’re a good team that knows it’ll make the playoffs, that’s exactly what the regular season is for.
4. Everyone is Surprised by Portland’s Secret Weapon Except LeBron James
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to turn back the hands of time by deploying Jusuf Nurkic and Caleb Swanigan in their starting lineup. The mammoth-sized duo was a predictable disaster, clogging up driving lanes for C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, preventing either big from having as much room to operate in the post, and creating at least one mismatch on the defensive end that could be exploited by a more modernized frontcourt.
Despite going 2-1 during this week-long experiment—that was partly induced by injuries elsewhere on the roster—Portland consistently found itself in a hole from the jump, causing Blazers head coach Terry Stotts to start the third quarter of last Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic with Pat Connaughton, instead of Swanigan, on the court—a game-saving halftime adjustment. (Stotts’s final straw came two nights later when the Blazers scored 82 points in a very bad loss against the Sacramento Kings. Noah Vonleh has started at the four since.)
The buried lede here is that while Portland struggled to score trotting out two slow frontcourt players who don’t complement one another in any way, what they discovered during this same stretch is a three-guard unit that could be their secret weapon.
Lillard and McCollum are an obvious staple that create myriad headaches for the opposition. Throw Shabazz Napier into the mix and it’s pandemonium. The trio only played 20 minutes last season, but in 38 minutes this year they’ve blitzed opponents by 38 points per 100 possessions.
Last summer, Evan Turner was paid a handsome sum to be the ball-handler who could enable Portland’s two franchise guards to work off the ball, decimate opponents off screens and rouse panic by setting paralyzing picks for each other on the weakside. He can still do that, especially from the block when backing down smaller defenders. But replace Turner with Napier and install a versatile wing like Mo Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and all of a sudden the court becomes a hornet’s nest.
The offensive upside is clear: three ball handlers who can shoot, drive, and pass, constantly racing around to kick dirt in your eyes, is hard to slow down. But so far (small-sample-size alert!) they’ve also been able to hold their own on the defensive end, in part because Napier plays like an unswattable mosquito whose hands and feet never stop moving.
But there are limits to being “frisky” when you aren’t catching an opponent off guard, and some of their success is because Napier’s three-point percentage is actively burning a hole in the ozone layer. That doesn’t mean this speedy triad should be demoted or even stuffed in glass as a “Break-in-Case-of-Emergency” axe. Stotts should ride this unique group as long as he can, knowing few teams have the personnel to match up with it on both ends.
5. Jimmy Butler is Sacrificing Too Much
The Timberwolves are not the NBA’s most disappointing team. Since November 1st, they own a top-10 defense, and for the whole season they’re outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson share the floor. But this team, at 10-7, feels disappointing.
They’ve yet to find a way to synchronize their overwhelming talent in a way that accentuates each individual’s skill-set, and startling losses against the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons (a game they should’ve won, considering they were home, with a day of rest, against a team that’d just dropped two in a row) have been the result.
Given his contract situation, past performance, and high expectations, Butler’s struggle to look like himself is probably the team’s largest concern. Nobody should’ve expected a fluid overnight fit, but 15 games into his seventh season, the three-time All-Star has yet to find any rhythm in a system he’s already familiar with. Sacrifice is wonderful and necessary, but the degree to which Butler has altered his role to appease Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague is a little excessive.
What’s best for him is probably also best for the Timberwolves. Instead, watching him play he looks out of rhythm, like he doesn’t know when to hunt and when to be passive. The degree of difficulty in some of Butler’s scoring situations has been higher than it should be, too, given the influx of talent by his side. Last year, 17.1 percent of Butler’s shots were hoisted when the shot clock was “late” or “very late,” according to NBA.com. This year, that’s up to 25.9 percent. He has more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which sounds nice but has never been his strength.
According to Synergy Sports, Butler’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are down 11 percent from last season. What was once a tool he used to carve defenses up has been more of a dull blade.
Butler’s usage is down, he’s touching the ball 11 fewer times per game, his turnover rate is at a career high, and his free-throw rate is at a career low. That last point is crucial. What initially elevated Butler to an elite level was his ability to draw contact and live at the line. Last season, he was fouled on 20.1 percent of his shots, which ranked in the 98th percentile among all wings. That percentage is currently half what it was. (A plethora of pull-up twos are acceptable when you live at the free-throw line; he’s not quite Tobias Harris, but trending in that direction.)
So much of this is because Minnesota’s roster simply isn’t conducive for a slash-first-ask-questions-later bulldog like Butler. His drives to the basket are now more complicated than Catherine Zeta-Jones vs. one million lasers, in large part because defenses are ready and willing to help off a majority of his teammates.
There are few in-house alterations that can make life easier for Butler, but he hardly ever plays with Nemanja Bjelica (who, ho-hum, is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league right now); in the 52 minutes they’ve shared the floor Minnesota has obliterated everything. (General side note: Gibson has been awesome but Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad have not—play Bjelica more often Thibs!)
There’s no need to panic in Minnesota. But youth, lack of shooting, and non-existent depth at the wing are concerns they’ll have to navigate the rest of the season. Putting the ball in Butler’s hands more often won’t solve them, but Jamal Crawford, Teague, and Wiggins should not have a higher usage rate than he does.
Among all players who’ve seen the floor for about the same or fewer minutes than Butler this season, Evan Fournier, Jayson Tatum, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeremy Lamb, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic have all scored more points. Something needs to change.
6. Toronto’s Offense Is Official
Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto’s offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
Last season, the Raptors ranked dead last in assist rate. (They were 28th in November during the 2016-17 season.) This year, they’re up to 14th, with 17 more passes per game. They’re 14th in pace (up from 22nd last season), shooting way fewer long twos and a lot more threes. Paths to the rim are wider and open more frequently. The result? They rank fourth in offense and third in effective field goal percentage.
It’s growth in real time, partly due to the infusion of youth from guys like OG Anunoby (the most underrated rookie in an abnormally loaded class), Fred VanVleet (whose name I thought was “Van Fleet” for about two years), Delon Wright (who just dislocated his shoulder), and a few others.
Toronto’s two lynch pins are doing their part and C.J. Miles is flashing Ryan Anderson-esque range. The ball moves better when DeMar DeRozan isn’t on the floor, but that’s also when their offensive rating drops to its lowest point. Probably because the guy’s footwork makes it look like he’s hovering two inches above the court at all times.
DeRozan jacked up three shots beyond the arc in the opening minutes of Sunday’s win against the Wall-less Wizards. While still low, his three-point rate is exactly double what it was last season. They aren’t perfect, but Toronto’s evolutionary shot profile makes them the second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
7. Orlando Treats the Three-Point Line With Too Much Reverence
The Magic should shine on defense. They have athletes who excel at key positions and a coach who’s known for extracting brick-wall execution from much less physical ability.
But after a hot start shooting the ball, Orlando’s defense has become one of the league’s 10 worst. Part of that’s due to injuries up and down the roster, and high usage big men—like Nikola Vucevic—who have known limitations. But a bit of their struggle can be explained by an aggressive “stay home!” attitude towards the three-point line.
Orlando’s defenders, as twitchy as most of them are, have been directed to form a permanent fence at the arc. They don’t allow swing passes to open threats on the weakside and aim to make outside shooters feel claustrophobic. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando holds its opponents to a 27 percent three-point rate, which is second-lowest in the league. And from there, the strategy of always being in position to contest outside shots has worked pretty well, with opponents only making 34.5 percent of their threes (though that’s likely a bit more happenstance than strategic ingenuity).
On the surface, this is a rousing success! But in reality it’s like they’re hermetically sealing a body part that actually needs reconstructive surgery. Here’s an example:
At the top, Aaron Gordon does a good job keeping Joe Ingles from getting to the middle of the floor, leaping up and forcing him left. But as the Australian swingman drives towards Vucevic, neither Elfrid Payton nor Evan Fournier pinch in to tag the rolling Derrick Favors. Instead, they treat Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell like they’re Splash Brothers when, actually, they’re Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell. Favors snatches Ingles’s pocket pass and finishes with an easy dunk.
The moral of the story: Personnel matters. It’s great that the Magic are executing their coach’s scheme and denying three-point attempts en mass in a league that’s filled with teams that are obsessed with that exact shot, but nothing will ever be more efficient than a layup, and nobody is allowing more of those than the Magic.
8. The Willie Cauley-Stein Bandwagon Has Plenty of Room
Photo by Brad Penner – USA TODAY Sports
I will forever believe that Willie Cauley-Stein is a useful, if not good, basketball player. He’s my personal equivalent to how a specific segment of NBA Twitter once felt (feels?) about Anthony Randolph. If Cauley-Stein was, like, seven percent more confident and nine percent more aggressive, with a point guard who draws attention, manipulates back-line rotations, and can shoot, he’d be Steven Adams.
Cauley-Stein actually made a three last week, too, and is one of a few centers who’s defended Joel Embiid without much help and not been steamrolled in the process. I want nothing more than to see him develop outside of Sacramento, not sharing the court with Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Is that too much to ask?
9. You Can’t Help But Respect Carmelo Anthony’s Commitment to Being Carmelo Anthony
Before clarifying is words and backtracking from the belief that he, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook need to be more selfish in order for the Oklahoma City Thunder to find offensive nirvana, Carmelo Anthony concluded that he and his two All-Star teammates are instinctive players who need to be more instinctive.
Even though his instincts have been wrong for quite some time, that’s a perfectly fine thing to believe. But if I played for the Thunder and read this quote, I’d refrain from ever passing him the ball. On top of a defensive demeanor that exudes the same amount of energy and attention I used to display on Thanksgiving morning throughout my early 20’s*, Anthony’s assist to usage ratio is only higher than nine percent of fellow forwards around the NBA. He could wear wide receiver gloves sprayed with stickum for an entire quarter and nobody would notice the difference.
*The below isn’t a great reflection of Oklahoma City’s collective effort, but Anthony somehow manages to make everyone else look like they’re hustling their ass off. He airballs a jumper and then backpedals to midcourt as the rest of his teammates turn to run.
Salute.
10. Donovan Mitchell’s Audaciousness Is Inspiring
The Utah Jazz are in a sad place, but, on the bright side, they also have Donovan Mitchell, a fearless firecracker with more responsibilities on his plate than any rookie on a decent team should. Just look at this wraparound pass to Rodney Hood, the finishing touch on Utah’s execution of a Hammer action.
Freeze the clip at the exact moment the ball leaves his fingertips. Even though Mitchell knows Hood is about to (probably) spring free in the corner, it still must feel a little scary to sidearm a ball the length of the baseline towards empty space. It arrives a little low, but that’s nitpicking. This was hard and he made it look easy.
Most of the 21-year-old’s offensive numbers are dreadful, but bold, trustworthy traits seen in sequences like this are enough to convince me the Jazz have a keeper.
The Outlet Pass: Butler’s Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre’s Evolution syndicated from http://ift.tt/2ug2Ns6
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Fantasy Basketball rookie check in: Ben Simmons, Lonzo Ball and more
Los Angeles Lakers rookie Lonzo Ball is putting up solid assist and rebound numbers but his shooting continues to be a major issue. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
By Nick Whalen, RotoWire Special to Yahoo Sports
Heading into Week 6 of the fantasy season, Nick Whalen checks in on the NBA’s top rookies.
Ben Simmons, 76ers
Simmons has officially gone from impressive for a rookie to arguably one of the top 30 players in the NBA. After another strong showing Monday against Utah, Simmons is averaging 18.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 2.0 steals per game. No rookie has ever averaged 18/9/7/2 over the course of an entire season, and it’s only been done twice by non-rookies (Magic Johnson, Fat Lever).
Considering he’s still a complete non-factor on the perimeter (0-7 3PT on the season), Simmons is considerably more valuable under the NBA’s new standard scoring system, which does not count three-point percentage or made threes. Under that system, Simmons ranks as the league’s No. 8 fantasy player, one spot ahead of Steph Curry and just 0.1 fantasy points per game behind Kevin Durant.
Lonzo Ball, Lakers
While Ball is still shooting horrifically from both the field and from three, what hasn’t been talked about as much are his struggles at the free throw line. The No. 2 overall pick has hit just 46 percent of his attempts heading into Tuesday’s action, but perhaps more concerning is the fact that he’s taken just 26 free throws in 563 minutes. Ball’s free throw rate is among the worst in the league, and he ranks ahead of only Elfrid Payton, Kris Dunn and Patty Mills among starting point guards. Ball put up his second triple-double of the season Sunday against Denver, but he failed to get to the line for the third time in four games.
All that said, in the context of fantasy, Ball hasn’t been a complete disaster. Like Simmons, he benefits greatly from the standard scoring system, ranking 44th overall in fantasy points per game (32.8).
One final note: If you’re a believer in the Jason Kidd comparisons — for the record, I am not — maybe there’s not much reason to panic about Ball’s rough start.
Here are Kidd’s numbers through the first 17 games of his career: 36.8 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 7.3 APG, 6.1 RPG, 2.4 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 32.7% FG, 13.2% 3PT (5-38 3PT)
Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
Utah has gone into a complete freefall in the wake of Rudy Gobert’s injury, but that hasn’t stopped Mitchell from gunning away on a nightly basis. Since moving into the starting lineup on Nov. 10, Mitchell is taking nearly 16 shots per game, including 5.9 threes, which has translated to averages of 17.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.7 steals in just under 33 minutes.
Mitchell ranks second among rookies in usage rate, despite making at least half of his shots in just three of 18 games.
Malik Monk, Hornets
Monk began the year as a regular rotation piece off the bench, but the return of Nic Batum has all but forced him out of the rotation. The 19-year-old picked up his first career DNP-CD Saturday against the Clippers and played just over a minute in Monday’s blowout win over Minnesota. For the time being, Steve Clifford is going with a 10-man rotation, with Dwayne Bacon, Jeremy Lamb and Michael Carter-Williams as his reserve guards.
Dillon Brooks, Grizzlies
Brooks’ overall numbers don’t jump off the page, but it’s nonetheless time for me to eat crow. Never in my wildest dreams would I have expected Brooks to be a rotation player as a rookie, let alone average nearly 30 minutes per game. Of course, that’s due in part to Memphis’ lack of depth, but Brooks — a big-time gunner at the college level — has proven to be an NBA-caliber talent. While the 21-year-old hasn’t shot the ball particularly well from three, he still holds respectable averages of 8.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.2 steals through 16 games.
Frank Ntilikina, Knicks
A low-speed collision with LeBron James is probably Ntilikina’s claim to fame at this point, and he hasn’t been particularly relevant as a fantasy commodity through 14 games. He’s been good as a passer (7.1 AST per-36) and has been mugging opposing guards (3.3 STL per 36), but his shooting is still a mess, and the minutes simply haven’t been there to warrant widespread ownership. Ntilikina played only 11 minutes in Monday’s win over the Clippers, his lowest total since opening night.
John Collins, Hawks
Collins has been perhaps the league’s steadiest rookie not named Ben Simmons. Mike Budenholzer has been hesitant to unleash him for more than 20-25 minutes on most nights, but that hasn’t stopped Collins from ranking seventh among rookies in scoring, third in rebounding and third in blocks. The Wake Forest product played a season-high (by far) 36 minutes Monday in San Antonio after Luke Babbitt left early with an injury and finished with a career-best 21 points to with nine rebounds and a pair of blocks. Collins is shooting a strong percentage from the floor (56.9% FG) for a rookie, though he’s a complete non-factor from the perimeter and has only 11 total assists and six steals in nearly 400 minutes.
OG Anunoby, Raptors
Anunoby slipped out of the lottery after missing almost all of last season with a torn ACL, but he recovered more quickly than expected and has been a fixture in the Raptors’ rotation since opening night. Numbers-wise, Anunoby hasn’t been a significant fantasy contributor, but he’s a capable scorer when given the opportunity. Anunoby had a career-high 16 points in 30 minutes against Houston on Nov. 14, hitting 3-of-4 three-point attempts and 6-of-8 field goals, overall.
Luke Kennard, Pistons
Kennard has been a per-36 darling — 13.6 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.6 stl, 1.9 made threes — but he’s yet to earn his way into a consistent role on a night-to-night basis. That’s nothing out of the ordinary for a rookie on a Stan Van Gundy-coached team, but it’s nonetheless been a frustrating situation for owners in deeper leagues, especially after Kennard averaged 12.7 points on 57.7 percent shooting (61.5% 3PT) over a three-game stretch last week. In two games since, Kennard has played 10 and 17 minutes, respectively, totalling just seven points.
Josh Jackson, Suns
Jackson has cooled off after an encouraging start, scoring in double figures only twice in his last eight games. Rebounding and steals continue to be strengths, however Jackson’s three-point shooting has tailed off of late, as he’s hit just two of his last 18 attempts.
Kyle Kuzma, Lakers
LA’s other rookie has taken things to another level in the ongoing absence of Larry Nance, averaging 17.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and shooting 48 percent from the floor in nine games since entering the starting five in Nance’s place. More importantly, Kuzma is averaging more than 35 minutes per game over that span, and he ranks third in that category among rookies, behind only Simmons and Ball. Unlike those two, Kuzma’s value isn’t necessarily boosted in non-percentage leagues, but he’s still been a top-90 player under the NBA’s standard scoring system.
De’Aaron Fox, Kings
Dave Joerger blindly picking names out of a hat to set his rotation on a given night has made Fox difficult to evaluate, but it’s encouraging that he’s leading the four-win Kings in minutes per game. Efficiency remains a bit of an issue, but that was always the expectation with Fox, who was a sub-30 percent three-point shooter at Kentucky. He currently ranks third among rookies in assists per game (4.7) and has actually been slightly better than Ball in terms of assist percentage
Dennis Smith, Mavericks
Smith put together the best stretch of his young career to begin November, averaging 19.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.0 steal and shooting 37 percent from three (2.4 makes per game) over the first seven games of the month. In three games since, Smith has scored a combined 21 points on 9-of-36 shooting, including 1-of-12 from three.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
There’s really not much to say about Tatum at this point, and that’s a compliment. Not many 19-year-olds can enter the league and positively contribute to the league’s best defense, while simultaneously shooting 50 percent from the field and 46 percent from three. He’s also rebounding at solid rate — watch the end of Monday night’s win over Dallas for further evidence — and leading all rookies (min. 150 minutes played) in free throw attempt rate.
If we really want to nitpick, Tatum still has a ways to go as a playmaker — one assist in roughly his last 150 minutes — but Boston hasn’t asked him to do much of that,
Lauri Markkanen, Bulls
The return of Bobby Portis hasn’t seemed to affect Markkanen, as he’s continued to routinely top 30 minutes on most nights. The Arizona product is coming off of his best game of the season Sunday in Phoenix, when he finished with 26 points (10-19 FG), 13 rebounds and two assists in 34 minutes.
Other rookies to watch: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), Sindarius Thornwell (LAC), Mike James (PHO), Dwayne Bacon (CHA), Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC), Semi Ojeleye (BOS)
#_uuid:d094e76b-e0b8-35ae-a034-76c32fbda95a#_author:Yahoo Sports Staff#_category:yct:001000854#_lmsid:a077000000CFoGyAAL#_revsp:54edcaf7-cdbb-43d7-a41b-bffdcc37fb56
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Den Fantasy League Recap: Preseason
Gentlemen,
The Fantasy season is upon us. This is the time of the year where glory is at an arm’s length. Who will be this year’s victor? Who will be the loser we laugh at all year? Seeing as we haven’t drafted yet, I’d like to take this time to recap last year’s squads.
Blair Walsh Project
The Blair Walsh Project enters this year with a brand new addition: Millie Rowe. How does Scott handle the new distraction of a child when it comes to Fantasy? After finishing a respectable 9-4 last year, Scott will look to make the leap into Fantasy lore and share his prize with his new daughter.
Cam’s Dabs Dabs
Vinny’s squad last year was as disoriented as his beloved Dolphins. Like his favorite team, Vinny dealt with injuries most of last year and, unlike his team, didn’t make the playoffs as he ended the season 3-10. Let’s hope this year he can make a change and bounce back.
Chris McChesney
Like the drastic differences between Chris McChesney and Josh Gordon, Dylan is hoping for that same difference in his team this year. JGVs ended the season a league worst 1-12. Unfortunately for Dylan, tanking isn’t an option in this league and, therefore, can’t trust the process.
Debbie Rowe
Named after a true saint, Jake also finished with the respectable 9-4. However, it looked as though Jake would be joining the ranks of the elite teams in the league. Unfortunately for him, he caught the injury big time as it seemed like everyone on his roster broke or tore something. Will he be able to bounce back or continue the downward trend he experienced in the second half of the season?
[REDACTED]
Only one other team had more success than [REDACTED]’s 10-3 squad. That team happened to be the one that knocked him out in the championship game. [REDACTED]’s success was spearheaded by some great running backs, including the resurgence of LaGarrette Blount. Rarely do the teams that lose the Super Bowl return back to the big game the following year. Good thing for [REDACTED] that this is Fantasy Football and that stat is completely non-applicable here.
Kalabar’s Revenge
G struck gold with the combo of the rookie Cowboys in Dak and Zeke but ended with a disappointing 7-6. Sometimes players and coaches just need a change of scenery to find success. This new Floridian just needs to focus more on his fantasy squad than with gators, hurricanes, and that loser Donald Duck.
Mr. Magorium
Gabs final loss left him at an under .500 record of 7-6. His biggest struggle seemed to be his weekly lineup. Far too often, Gabe’s best player was on his bench. He’ll look to set better lineups this year and hopefully come back stronger than ever.
Rob Sucks
Why would Rob name his own team Rob Sucks? He didn’t. I did. Feeling on top of the world after beating yours truly in week one, Rob quickly fell off for the rest of the season. So low as to allow Dylan his only win. Like Scott, Rob will be bringing on a midseason acquisition in Baby Tudor. Congrats, Rob, but if Stacey does indeed have that kid on Halloween, I’m declaring that baby on the roster of Kal’s Revenge. G will own that baby.
Team Timshel
Like Jake, Mike’s squad caught the injury bug but unfortunately finished at a bleak 7-6. Mike will soon be moving to Dallas and we’ll see how that effects his Fantasy squad. Does he succumb to the bright lights of Jerry World or will he shine on the biggest stage. That’s for you to decide, Mike.
The Perfect Ten
E (and Dillon McConvey) return as last year’s champions. The Perfect Ten had an incredible year at 11-2 and bringing home bragging rights. Will this power couple continue their winning ways into a dynasty or hit a sophomore slump that could derail their squad? Will E have another Cheesehead on his roster? Major questions for The Perfect Ten.
Viking Quest
It takes a big man to admit his failures. That is why I have to admit that I sucked last year. Sure I can make excuses like: Matt Stafford hasn’t taken to full step towards elite status, Devonta Freeman had to share touches, Latavius and Amari were on too powerful of a team, Terrelle Pryor flamed out. But I won’t. That would be childish. I humbly took a 5-8 record so the rest of the league could flourish. That’s what a good commish does and I don’t regret it.
Wilmore Cinderellas
The Cinderellas was a good name for this team as they tried to make a run down the stretch but fell short at 7-6. JP was one of the final entrants into this league but made it count by making his way into the playoffs. He also famously had his trade vetoed when he accepted Ajayi for Reed that almost shook up the fantasy realm.
I look forward to another great year of Fantasy lore with you, gentlemen. A couple of final notes. The draft will be held on Monday, August 28th at 8pm. Be sure to pay Vinny via cash or Venmo (Vinnywp) $25 by the draft date. The pay out structure will be Winner ( $206), 2nd Place ($69*), Regular Season ($25). Good luck everyone.
Your beloved Commissioner,
Jared R. Mosqueda
*Nice
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The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution
With tomorrow being Thanksgiving (Happy Thanksgiving!), The Outlet Pass has arrived one day earlier than normal this week. Enjoy!
1. In Honor of Thanksgiving, Here’s a Fake Trade We Can All Be Thankful For
Cleveland gets: Marc Gasol Memphis gets: Brooklyn’s first-round pick in 2018, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert
When Gasol first signed his five-year $110 million deal nearly two and half years ago, popular thought was father time would tarnish it sooner than later. This was something the Memphis Grizzlies had to do, even while fully understanding the odds-on risk attached. (A broken foot suffered the following February increased the likelihood of it being a sunk cost.)
Instead, at 33 years old and in his 10th season, with a new coach, overhauled system, and personal submission to the three-point line, Gasol is still kicking as a borderline All-Star, albeit one whose crater-sized impact in Memphis isn’t as expansive as it used to be.
According to Synergy Sports, Gasol is currently the least efficient player in the league when he gets double-teamed in the post. Some of this is thanks to a small sample size, diminishing athleticism and curbed quickness, but his surrounding personnel deserves a smidge of blame, too. Even though some of their shooting percentages are up, opposing teams are still open to doubling off Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of Memphis’ roster.
A move to Cleveland would do freaking wonders for Gasol’s one-on-one game. The attention LeBron James demands is unrivaled, and picturing those two surrounded by three dead-eye snipers—like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, healthy Isaiah Thomas, or Jae Crowder—is a daydream. James has never played with someone like Gasol: A pass-first center who can space the floor, anchor an excellent defense, and singlehandedly create open threes on the weakside when he goes to work on the block.
And just think about the lineups Ty Lue could utilize with LeBron on the bench. Gasol and Love, by themselves, could become the NBA’s mightiest frontcourt tandem this side of New Orleans. Gasol helps in a likely Finals rematch against the Golden State Warriors in a way very few players can. He’s a savant on both ends.
The risk in trading a lottery pick for any player who can opt out of his contract in 2019, let alone a declining 33-year-old who plays the league’s least attractive position and would have to sacrifice a whole bunch of touches overnight, is an obvious risk—even if said pick is owned by a Brooklyn Nets squad that figures to finish with the sixth or seventh worst record and not the first or second.
But let’s play out one possible scenario if they don’t make a seismic trade: Cleveland adds a borderline-washed-up buyout candidate, loses in the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals, lands the sixth pick, watches LeBron leave in free agency, and is bad forever. If surrendering the Brooklyn pick for someone like Gasol is possible, then convincing James to stay is the right move.
Meanwhile, Memphis should do this in a heartbeat. Injuries around the Western Conference are keeping their playoff odds on a respirator, but Mike Conley’s weary Achilles tendon isn’t really allowing them to make up much ground. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last ten, with an offense that ranks 22nd despite them never, ever turning the ball over.
The smart long-term play here is to squeeze as much as they can get for Gasol, then rebuild around two lottery picks, with one potentially landing in the top five, in a five-player draft. They can also move on from Thompson and maybe even get a late first-rounder for his service as well. Memphis already has its own top-eight-protected first-round pick headed to Boston in 2019 (which becomes unprotected in 2021), so the best time to replenish their roster with high-upside youth is today.
2. Victor Oladipo…
Photo by Steve Mitchell - USA TODAY Sports
...has more points than Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and...Russell Westbrook. The Indiana Pacers have had a top-10 offense all year long despite not having Myles Turner (the dude everyone expected to be their best player) for seven games. Oladipo deserves a statue.
3. It’s Time to Expand Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Role
The Wizards are an obscenely dominant basketball team when John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. share the floor, outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions. This makes sense. Three of those players are on a max contract and the fourth is a 21-year-old southpaw who’s shooting 47 percent from above the break.
Washington knows what it has with its three best players, but Oubre Jr.’s growth is the variable worth watching. Right now he’s still raw and able to impact games with his athleticism, energy, and length. But knowing the ball ultimately starts in Wall or Beal’s hands—particularly throughout the postseason—it’s worth wondering what type of developmental path Washington should try and set their moldable Sixth Man on.
Oubre Jr. has only run a handful of pick-and-rolls this season, and, to nobody’s surprise, whenever he does dribble off a screen and try to make a play his timing and vision are both a little off.
Despite a leap in playing time, his assist to usage ratio is still near the bottom at his position (and down from where it was last season). He averages as many potential assists per game as DeAndre Jordan—fewer than Steven Adams and Tyson Chandler—and his 20.9 passes per game are fifth fewest in the entire league among all players who average at least 25 minutes.
This doesn’t make him selfish. Oubre Jr. is happy and willing to swing the ball and forfeit his own good shot so a teammate can have a better one. His job is to finish plays instead of start them, but given Washington’s routine bench struggles, it’d be a godsend if Oubre Jr. could quickly grow to become a reliable secondary or primary ball-handler when Wall and Beal both rest.
If the organization’s plan is to win with this foursome leading the way, the Wizards would be wrong to clone another Porter instead of encouraging Oubre Jr. to become a more versatile offensive weapon. In about eight fewer minutes per game, he touches the ball less than Jeff Green. It isn’t too early to diversify Oubre Jr.’s responsibilities. When you’re a good team that knows it’ll make the playoffs, that’s exactly what the regular season is for.
4. Everyone is Surprised by Portland’s Secret Weapon Except LeBron James
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to turn back the hands of time by deploying Jusuf Nurkic and Caleb Swanigan in their starting lineup. The mammoth-sized duo was a predictable disaster, clogging up driving lanes for C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, preventing either big from having as much room to operate in the post, and creating at least one mismatch on the defensive end that could be exploited by a more modernized frontcourt.
Despite going 2-1 during this week-long experiment—that was partly induced by injuries elsewhere on the roster—Portland consistently found itself in a hole from the jump, causing Blazers head coach Terry Stotts to start the third quarter of last Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic with Pat Connaughton, instead of Swanigan, on the court—a game-saving halftime adjustment. (Stotts’s final straw came two nights later when the Blazers scored 82 points in a very bad loss against the Sacramento Kings. Noah Vonleh has started at the four since.)
The buried lede here is that while Portland struggled to score trotting out two slow frontcourt players who don’t complement one another in any way, what they discovered during this same stretch is a three-guard unit that could be their secret weapon.
Lillard and McCollum are an obvious staple that create myriad headaches for the opposition. Throw Shabazz Napier into the mix and it’s pandemonium. The trio only played 20 minutes last season, but in 38 minutes this year they’ve blitzed opponents by 38 points per 100 possessions.
Last summer, Evan Turner was paid a handsome sum to be the ball-handler who could enable Portland’s two franchise guards to work off the ball, decimate opponents off screens and rouse panic by setting paralyzing picks for each other on the weakside. He can still do that, especially from the block when backing down smaller defenders. But replace Turner with Napier and install a versatile wing like Mo Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and all of a sudden the court becomes a hornet’s nest.
The offensive upside is clear: three ball handlers who can shoot, drive, and pass, constantly racing around to kick dirt in your eyes, is hard to slow down. But so far (small-sample-size alert!) they’ve also been able to hold their own on the defensive end, in part because Napier plays like an unswattable mosquito whose hands and feet never stop moving.
But there are limits to being “frisky” when you aren’t catching an opponent off guard, and some of their success is because Napier’s three-point percentage is actively burning a hole in the ozone layer. That doesn’t mean this speedy triad should be demoted or even stuffed in glass as a “Break-in-Case-of-Emergency” axe. Stotts should ride this unique group as long as he can, knowing few teams have the personnel to match up with it on both ends.
5. Jimmy Butler is Sacrificing Too Much
The Timberwolves are not the NBA’s most disappointing team. Since November 1st, they own a top-10 defense, and for the whole season they’re outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson share the floor. But this team, at 10-7, feels disappointing.
They’ve yet to find a way to synchronize their overwhelming talent in a way that accentuates each individual’s skill-set, and startling losses against the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons (a game they should’ve won, considering they were home, with a day of rest, against a team that’d just dropped two in a row) have been the result.
Given his contract situation, past performance, and high expectations, Butler’s struggle to look like himself is probably the team’s largest concern. Nobody should’ve expected a fluid overnight fit, but 15 games into his seventh season, the three-time All-Star has yet to find any rhythm in a system he’s already familiar with. Sacrifice is wonderful and necessary, but the degree to which Butler has altered his role to appease Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague is a little excessive.
What’s best for him is probably also best for the Timberwolves. Instead, watching him play he looks out of rhythm, like he doesn’t know when to hunt and when to be passive. The degree of difficulty in some of Butler’s scoring situations has been higher than it should be, too, given the influx of talent by his side. Last year, 17.1 percent of Butler’s shots were hoisted when the shot clock was “late” or “very late,” according to NBA.com. This year, that’s up to 25.9 percent. He has more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which sounds nice but has never been his strength.
According to Synergy Sports, Butler’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are down 11 percent from last season. What was once a tool he used to carve defenses up has been more of a dull blade.
Butler’s usage is down, he’s touching the ball 11 fewer times per game, his turnover rate is at a career high, and his free-throw rate is at a career low. That last point is crucial. What initially elevated Butler to an elite level was his ability to draw contact and live at the line. Last season, he was fouled on 20.1 percent of his shots, which ranked in the 98th percentile among all wings. That percentage is currently half what it was. (A plethora of pull-up twos are acceptable when you live at the free-throw line; he’s not quite Tobias Harris, but trending in that direction.)
So much of this is because Minnesota’s roster simply isn’t conducive for a slash-first-ask-questions-later bulldog like Butler. His drives to the basket are now more complicated than Catherine Zeta-Jones vs. one million lasers, in large part because defenses are ready and willing to help off a majority of his teammates.
There are few in-house alterations that can make life easier for Butler, but he hardly ever plays with Nemanja Bjelica (who, ho-hum, is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league right now); in the 52 minutes they’ve shared the floor Minnesota has obliterated everything. (General side note: Gibson has been awesome but Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad have not—play Bjelica more often Thibs!)
There’s no need to panic in Minnesota. But youth, lack of shooting, and non-existent depth at the wing are concerns they’ll have to navigate the rest of the season. Putting the ball in Butler’s hands more often won’t solve them, but Jamal Crawford, Teague, and Wiggins should not have a higher usage rate than he does.
Among all players who’ve seen the floor for about the same or fewer minutes than Butler this season, Evan Fournier, Jayson Tatum, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeremy Lamb, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic have all scored more points. Something needs to change.
6. Toronto’s Offense Is Official
Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto’s offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
Last season, the Raptors ranked dead last in assist rate. (They were 28th in November during the 2016-17 season.) This year, they’re up to 14th, with 17 more passes per game. They’re 14th in pace (up from 22nd last season), shooting way fewer long twos and a lot more threes. Paths to the rim are wider and open more frequently. The result? They rank fourth in offense and third in effective field goal percentage.
It’s growth in real time, partly due to the infusion of youth from guys like OG Anunoby (the most underrated rookie in an abnormally loaded class), Fred VanVleet (whose name I thought was “Van Fleet” for about two years), Delon Wright (who just dislocated his shoulder), and a few others.
Toronto’s two lynch pins are doing their part and C.J. Miles is flashing Ryan Anderson-esque range. The ball moves better when DeMar DeRozan isn’t on the floor, but that’s also when their offensive rating drops to its lowest point. Probably because the guy’s footwork makes it look like he’s hovering two inches above the court at all times.
DeRozan jacked up three shots beyond the arc in the opening minutes of Sunday’s win against the Wall-less Wizards. While still low, his three-point rate is exactly double what it was last season. They aren't perfect, but Toronto's evolutionary shot profile makes them the second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
7. Orlando Treats the Three-Point Line With Too Much Reverence
The Magic should shine on defense. They have athletes who excel at key positions and a coach who’s known for extracting brick-wall execution from much less physical ability.
But after a hot start shooting the ball, Orlando’s defense has become one of the league’s 10 worst. Part of that’s due to injuries up and down the roster, and high usage big men—like Nikola Vucevic—who have known limitations. But a bit of their struggle can be explained by an aggressive “stay home!” attitude towards the three-point line.
Orlando’s defenders, as twitchy as most of them are, have been directed to form a permanent fence at the arc. They don’t allow swing passes to open threats on the weakside and aim to make outside shooters feel claustrophobic. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando holds its opponents to a 27 percent three-point rate, which is second-lowest in the league. And from there, the strategy of always being in position to contest outside shots has worked pretty well, with opponents only making 34.5 percent of their threes (though that’s likely a bit more happenstance than strategic ingenuity).
On the surface, this is a rousing success! But in reality it’s like they’re hermetically sealing a body part that actually needs reconstructive surgery. Here’s an example:
At the top, Aaron Gordon does a good job keeping Joe Ingles from getting to the middle of the floor, leaping up and forcing him left. But as the Australian swingman drives towards Vucevic, neither Elfrid Payton nor Evan Fournier pinch in to tag the rolling Derrick Favors. Instead, they treat Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell like they’re Splash Brothers when, actually, they're Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell. Favors snatches Ingles’s pocket pass and finishes with an easy dunk.
The moral of the story: Personnel matters. It’s great that the Magic are executing their coach’s scheme and denying three-point attempts en mass in a league that’s filled with teams that are obsessed with that exact shot, but nothing will ever be more efficient than a layup, and nobody is allowing more of those than the Magic.
8. The Willie Cauley-Stein Bandwagon Has Plenty of Room
Photo by Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports
I will forever believe that Willie Cauley-Stein is a useful, if not good, basketball player. He’s my personal equivalent to how a specific segment of NBA Twitter once felt (feels?) about Anthony Randolph. If Cauley-Stein was, like, seven percent more confident and nine percent more aggressive, with a point guard who draws attention, manipulates back-line rotations, and can shoot, he’d be Steven Adams.
Cauley-Stein actually made a three last week, too, and is one of a few centers who’s defended Joel Embiid without much help and not been steamrolled in the process. I want nothing more than to see him develop outside of Sacramento, not sharing the court with Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Is that too much to ask?
9. You Can’t Help But Respect Carmelo Anthony’s Commitment to Being Carmelo Anthony
Before clarifying is words and backtracking from the belief that he, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook need to be more selfish in order for the Oklahoma City Thunder to find offensive nirvana, Carmelo Anthony concluded that he and his two All-Star teammates are instinctive players who need to be more instinctive.
Even though his instincts have been wrong for quite some time, that’s a perfectly fine thing to believe. But if I played for the Thunder and read this quote, I'd refrain from ever passing him the ball. On top of a defensive demeanor that exudes the same amount of energy and attention I used to display on Thanksgiving morning throughout my early 20’s*, Anthony’s assist to usage ratio is only higher than nine percent of fellow forwards around the NBA. He could wear wide receiver gloves sprayed with stickum for an entire quarter and nobody would notice the difference.
*The below isn’t a great reflection of Oklahoma City’s collective effort, but Anthony somehow manages to make everyone else look like they're hustling their ass off. He airballs a jumper and then backpedals to midcourt as the rest of his teammates turn to run.
Salute.
10. Donovan Mitchell’s Audaciousness Is Inspiring
The Utah Jazz are in a sad place, but, on the bright side, they also have Donovan Mitchell, a fearless firecracker with more responsibilities on his plate than any rookie on a decent team should. Just look at this wraparound pass to Rodney Hood, the finishing touch on Utah’s execution of a Hammer action.
Freeze the clip at the exact moment the ball leaves his fingertips. Even though Mitchell knows Hood is about to (probably) spring free in the corner, it still must feel a little scary to sidearm a ball the length of the baseline towards empty space. It arrives a little low, but that's nitpicking. This was hard and he made it look easy.
Most of the 21-year-old’s offensive numbers are dreadful, but bold, trustworthy traits seen in sequences like this are enough to convince me the Jazz have a keeper.
The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution
With tomorrow being Thanksgiving (Happy Thanksgiving!), The Outlet Pass has arrived one day earlier than normal this week. Enjoy!
1. In Honor of Thanksgiving, Here’s a Fake Trade We Can All Be Thankful For
Cleveland gets: Marc Gasol Memphis gets: Brooklyn’s first-round pick in 2018, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert
When Gasol first signed his five-year $110 million deal nearly two and half years ago, popular thought was father time would tarnish it sooner than later. This was something the Memphis Grizzlies had to do, even while fully understanding the odds-on risk attached. (A broken foot suffered the following February increased the likelihood of it being a sunk cost.)
Instead, at 33 years old and in his 10th season, with a new coach, overhauled system, and personal submission to the three-point line, Gasol is still kicking as a borderline All-Star, albeit one whose crater-sized impact in Memphis isn’t as expansive as it used to be.
According to Synergy Sports, Gasol is currently the least efficient player in the league when he gets double-teamed in the post. Some of this is thanks to a small sample size, diminishing athleticism and curbed quickness, but his surrounding personnel deserves a smidge of blame, too. Even though some of their shooting percentages are up, opposing teams are still open to doubling off Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of Memphis’ roster.
A move to Cleveland would do freaking wonders for Gasol’s one-on-one game. The attention LeBron James demands is unrivaled, and picturing those two surrounded by three dead-eye snipers—like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, healthy Isaiah Thomas, or Jae Crowder—is a daydream. James has never played with someone like Gasol: A pass-first center who can space the floor, anchor an excellent defense, and singlehandedly create open threes on the weakside when he goes to work on the block.
And just think about the lineups Ty Lue could utilize with LeBron on the bench. Gasol and Love, by themselves, could become the NBA’s mightiest frontcourt tandem this side of New Orleans. Gasol helps in a likely Finals rematch against the Golden State Warriors in a way very few players can. He’s a savant on both ends.
The risk in trading a lottery pick for any player who can opt out of his contract in 2019, let alone a declining 33-year-old who plays the league’s least attractive position and would have to sacrifice a whole bunch of touches overnight, is an obvious risk—even if said pick is owned by a Brooklyn Nets squad that figures to finish with the sixth or seventh worst record and not the first or second.
But let’s play out one possible scenario if they don’t make a seismic trade: Cleveland adds a borderline-washed-up buyout candidate, loses in the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals, lands the sixth pick, watches LeBron leave in free agency, and is bad forever. If surrendering the Brooklyn pick for someone like Gasol is possible, then convincing James to stay is the right move.
Meanwhile, Memphis should do this in a heartbeat. Injuries around the Western Conference are keeping their playoff odds on a respirator, but Mike Conley’s weary Achilles tendon isn’t really allowing them to make up much ground. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last ten, with an offense that ranks 22nd despite them never, ever turning the ball over.
The smart long-term play here is to squeeze as much as they can get for Gasol, then rebuild around two lottery picks, with one potentially landing in the top five, in a five-player draft. They can also move on from Thompson and maybe even get a late first-rounder for his service as well. Memphis already has its own top-eight-protected first-round pick headed to Boston in 2019 (which becomes unprotected in 2021), so the best time to replenish their roster with high-upside youth is today.
2. Victor Oladipo…
Photo by Steve Mitchell - USA TODAY Sports
...has more points than Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and...Russell Westbrook. The Indiana Pacers have had a top-10 offense all year long despite not having Myles Turner (the dude everyone expected to be their best player) for seven games. Oladipo deserves a statue.
3. It’s Time to Expand Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Role
The Wizards are an obscenely dominant basketball team when John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. share the floor, outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions. This makes sense. Three of those players are on a max contract and the fourth is a 21-year-old southpaw who’s shooting 47 percent from above the break.
Washington knows what it has with its three best players, but Oubre Jr.’s growth is the variable worth watching. Right now he’s still raw and able to impact games with his athleticism, energy, and length. But knowing the ball ultimately starts in Wall or Beal’s hands—particularly throughout the postseason—it’s worth wondering what type of developmental path Washington should try and set their moldable Sixth Man on.
Oubre Jr. has only run a handful of pick-and-rolls this season, and, to nobody’s surprise, whenever he does dribble off a screen and try to make a play his timing and vision are both a little off.
Despite a leap in playing time, his assist to usage ratio is still near the bottom at his position (and down from where it was last season). He averages as many potential assists per game as DeAndre Jordan—fewer than Steven Adams and Tyson Chandler—and his 20.9 passes per game are fifth fewest in the entire league among all players who average at least 25 minutes.
This doesn’t make him selfish. Oubre Jr. is happy and willing to swing the ball and forfeit his own good shot so a teammate can have a better one. His job is to finish plays instead of start them, but given Washington’s routine bench struggles, it’d be a godsend if Oubre Jr. could quickly grow to become a reliable secondary or primary ball-handler when Wall and Beal both rest.
If the organization’s plan is to win with this foursome leading the way, the Wizards would be wrong to clone another Porter instead of encouraging Oubre Jr. to become a more versatile offensive weapon. In about eight fewer minutes per game, he touches the ball less than Jeff Green. It isn’t too early to diversify Oubre Jr.’s responsibilities. When you’re a good team that knows it’ll make the playoffs, that’s exactly what the regular season is for.
4. Everyone is Surprised by Portland’s Secret Weapon Except LeBron James
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to turn back the hands of time by deploying Jusuf Nurkic and Caleb Swanigan in their starting lineup. The mammoth-sized duo was a predictable disaster, clogging up driving lanes for C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, preventing either big from having as much room to operate in the post, and creating at least one mismatch on the defensive end that could be exploited by a more modernized frontcourt.
Despite going 2-1 during this week-long experiment—that was partly induced by injuries elsewhere on the roster—Portland consistently found itself in a hole from the jump, causing Blazers head coach Terry Stotts to start the third quarter of last Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic with Pat Connaughton, instead of Swanigan, on the court—a game-saving halftime adjustment. (Stotts’s final straw came two nights later when the Blazers scored 82 points in a very bad loss against the Sacramento Kings. Noah Vonleh has started at the four since.)
The buried lede here is that while Portland struggled to score trotting out two slow frontcourt players who don’t complement one another in any way, what they discovered during this same stretch is a three-guard unit that could be their secret weapon.
Lillard and McCollum are an obvious staple that create myriad headaches for the opposition. Throw Shabazz Napier into the mix and it’s pandemonium. The trio only played 20 minutes last season, but in 38 minutes this year they’ve blitzed opponents by 38 points per 100 possessions.
Last summer, Evan Turner was paid a handsome sum to be the ball-handler who could enable Portland’s two franchise guards to work off the ball, decimate opponents off screens and rouse panic by setting paralyzing picks for each other on the weakside. He can still do that, especially from the block when backing down smaller defenders. But replace Turner with Napier and install a versatile wing like Mo Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and all of a sudden the court becomes a hornet’s nest.
The offensive upside is clear: three ball handlers who can shoot, drive, and pass, constantly racing around to kick dirt in your eyes, is hard to slow down. But so far (small-sample-size alert!) they’ve also been able to hold their own on the defensive end, in part because Napier plays like an unswattable mosquito whose hands and feet never stop moving.
But there are limits to being “frisky” when you aren’t catching an opponent off guard, and some of their success is because Napier’s three-point percentage is actively burning a hole in the ozone layer. That doesn’t mean this speedy triad should be demoted or even stuffed in glass as a “Break-in-Case-of-Emergency” axe. Stotts should ride this unique group as long as he can, knowing few teams have the personnel to match up with it on both ends.
5. Jimmy Butler is Sacrificing Too Much
The Timberwolves are not the NBA’s most disappointing team. Since November 1st, they own a top-10 defense, and for the whole season they’re outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson share the floor. But this team, at 10-7, feels disappointing.
They’ve yet to find a way to synchronize their overwhelming talent in a way that accentuates each individual’s skill-set, and startling losses against the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons (a game they should’ve won, considering they were home, with a day of rest, against a team that’d just dropped two in a row) have been the result.
Given his contract situation, past performance, and high expectations, Butler’s struggle to look like himself is probably the team’s largest concern. Nobody should’ve expected a fluid overnight fit, but 15 games into his seventh season, the three-time All-Star has yet to find any rhythm in a system he’s already familiar with. Sacrifice is wonderful and necessary, but the degree to which Butler has altered his role to appease Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague is a little excessive.
What’s best for him is probably also best for the Timberwolves. Instead, watching him play he looks out of rhythm, like he doesn’t know when to hunt and when to be passive. The degree of difficulty in some of Butler’s scoring situations has been higher than it should be, too, given the influx of talent by his side. Last year, 17.1 percent of Butler’s shots were hoisted when the shot clock was “late” or “very late,” according to NBA.com. This year, that’s up to 25.9 percent. He has more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which sounds nice but has never been his strength.
According to Synergy Sports, Butler’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are down 11 percent from last season. What was once a tool he used to carve defenses up has been more of a dull blade.
Butler’s usage is down, he’s touching the ball 11 fewer times per game, his turnover rate is at a career high, and his free-throw rate is at a career low. That last point is crucial. What initially elevated Butler to an elite level was his ability to draw contact and live at the line. Last season, he was fouled on 20.1 percent of his shots, which ranked in the 98th percentile among all wings. That percentage is currently half what it was. (A plethora of pull-up twos are acceptable when you live at the free-throw line; he’s not quite Tobias Harris, but trending in that direction.)
So much of this is because Minnesota’s roster simply isn’t conducive for a slash-first-ask-questions-later bulldog like Butler. His drives to the basket are now more complicated than Catherine Zeta-Jones vs. one million lasers, in large part because defenses are ready and willing to help off a majority of his teammates.
There are few in-house alterations that can make life easier for Butler, but he hardly ever plays with Nemanja Bjelica (who, ho-hum, is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league right now); in the 52 minutes they’ve shared the floor Minnesota has obliterated everything. (General side note: Gibson has been awesome but Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad have not—play Bjelica more often Thibs!)
There’s no need to panic in Minnesota. But youth, lack of shooting, and non-existent depth at the wing are concerns they’ll have to navigate the rest of the season. Putting the ball in Butler’s hands more often won’t solve them, but Jamal Crawford, Teague, and Wiggins should not have a higher usage rate than he does.
Among all players who’ve seen the floor for about the same or fewer minutes than Butler this season, Evan Fournier, Jayson Tatum, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeremy Lamb, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic have all scored more points. Something needs to change.
6. Toronto’s Offense Is Official
Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto’s offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
Last season, the Raptors ranked dead last in assist rate. (They were 28th in November during the 2016-17 season.) This year, they’re up to 14th, with 17 more passes per game. They’re 14th in pace (up from 22nd last season), shooting way fewer long twos and a lot more threes. Paths to the rim are wider and open more frequently. The result? They rank fourth in offense and third in effective field goal percentage.
It’s growth in real time, partly due to the infusion of youth from guys like OG Anunoby (the most underrated rookie in an abnormally loaded class), Fred VanVleet (whose name I thought was “Van Fleet” for about two years), Delon Wright (who just dislocated his shoulder), and a few others.
Toronto’s two lynch pins are doing their part and C.J. Miles is flashing Ryan Anderson-esque range. The ball moves better when DeMar DeRozan isn’t on the floor, but that’s also when their offensive rating drops to its lowest point. Probably because the guy’s footwork makes it look like he’s hovering two inches above the court at all times.
DeRozan jacked up three shots beyond the arc in the opening minutes of Sunday’s win against the Wall-less Wizards. While still low, his three-point rate is exactly double what it was last season. They aren't perfect, but Toronto's evolutionary shot profile makes them the second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
7. Orlando Treats the Three-Point Line With Too Much Reverence
The Magic should shine on defense. They have athletes who excel at key positions and a coach who’s known for extracting brick-wall execution from much less physical ability.
But after a hot start shooting the ball, Orlando’s defense has become one of the league’s 10 worst. Part of that’s due to injuries up and down the roster, and high usage big men—like Nikola Vucevic—who have known limitations. But a bit of their struggle can be explained by an aggressive “stay home!” attitude towards the three-point line.
Orlando’s defenders, as twitchy as most of them are, have been directed to form a permanent fence at the arc. They don’t allow swing passes to open threats on the weakside and aim to make outside shooters feel claustrophobic. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando holds its opponents to a 27 percent three-point rate, which is second-lowest in the league. And from there, the strategy of always being in position to contest outside shots has worked pretty well, with opponents only making 34.5 percent of their threes (though that’s likely a bit more happenstance than strategic ingenuity).
On the surface, this is a rousing success! But in reality it’s like they’re hermetically sealing a body part that actually needs reconstructive surgery. Here’s an example:
At the top, Aaron Gordon does a good job keeping Joe Ingles from getting to the middle of the floor, leaping up and forcing him left. But as the Australian swingman drives towards Vucevic, neither Elfrid Payton nor Evan Fournier pinch in to tag the rolling Derrick Favors. Instead, they treat Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell like they’re Splash Brothers when, actually, they're Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell. Favors snatches Ingles’s pocket pass and finishes with an easy dunk.
The moral of the story: Personnel matters. It’s great that the Magic are executing their coach’s scheme and denying three-point attempts en mass in a league that’s filled with teams that are obsessed with that exact shot, but nothing will ever be more efficient than a layup, and nobody is allowing more of those than the Magic.
8. The Willie Cauley-Stein Bandwagon Has Plenty of Room
Photo by Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports
I will forever believe that Willie Cauley-Stein is a useful, if not good, basketball player. He’s my personal equivalent to how a specific segment of NBA Twitter once felt (feels?) about Anthony Randolph. If Cauley-Stein was, like, seven percent more confident and nine percent more aggressive, with a point guard who draws attention, manipulates back-line rotations, and can shoot, he’d be Steven Adams.
Cauley-Stein actually made a three last week, too, and is one of a few centers who’s defended Joel Embiid without much help and not been steamrolled in the process. I want nothing more than to see him develop outside of Sacramento, not sharing the court with Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Is that too much to ask?
9. You Can’t Help But Respect Carmelo Anthony’s Commitment to Being Carmelo Anthony
Before clarifying is words and backtracking from the belief that he, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook need to be more selfish in order for the Oklahoma City Thunder to find offensive nirvana, Carmelo Anthony concluded that he and his two All-Star teammates are instinctive players who need to be more instinctive.
Even though his instincts have been wrong for quite some time, that’s a perfectly fine thing to believe. But if I played for the Thunder and read this quote, I'd refrain from ever passing him the ball. On top of a defensive demeanor that exudes the same amount of energy and attention I used to display on Thanksgiving morning throughout my early 20’s*, Anthony’s assist to usage ratio is only higher than nine percent of fellow forwards around the NBA. He could wear wide receiver gloves sprayed with stickum for an entire quarter and nobody would notice the difference.
*The below isn’t a great reflection of Oklahoma City’s collective effort, but Anthony somehow manages to make everyone else look like they're hustling their ass off. He airballs a jumper and then backpedals to midcourt as the rest of his teammates turn to run.
Salute.
10. Donovan Mitchell’s Audaciousness Is Inspiring
The Utah Jazz are in a sad place, but, on the bright side, they also have Donovan Mitchell, a fearless firecracker with more responsibilities on his plate than any rookie on a decent team should. Just look at this wraparound pass to Rodney Hood, the finishing touch on Utah’s execution of a Hammer action.
Freeze the clip at the exact moment the ball leaves his fingertips. Even though Mitchell knows Hood is about to (probably) spring free in the corner, it still must feel a little scary to sidearm a ball the length of the baseline towards empty space. It arrives a little low, but that's nitpicking. This was hard and he made it look easy.
Most of the 21-year-old’s offensive numbers are dreadful, but bold, trustworthy traits seen in sequences like this are enough to convince me the Jazz have a keeper.
The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution
With tomorrow being Thanksgiving (Happy Thanksgiving!), The Outlet Pass has arrived one day earlier than normal this week. Enjoy!
1. In Honor of Thanksgiving, Here’s a Fake Trade We Can All Be Thankful For
Cleveland gets: Marc Gasol Memphis gets: Brooklyn’s first-round pick in 2018, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert
When Gasol first signed his five-year $110 million deal nearly two and half years ago, popular thought was father time would tarnish it sooner than later. This was something the Memphis Grizzlies had to do, even while fully understanding the odds-on risk attached. (A broken foot suffered the following February increased the likelihood of it being a sunk cost.)
Instead, at 33 years old and in his 10th season, with a new coach, overhauled system, and personal submission to the three-point line, Gasol is still kicking as a borderline All-Star, albeit one whose crater-sized impact in Memphis isn’t as expansive as it used to be.
According to Synergy Sports, Gasol is currently the least efficient player in the league when he gets double-teamed in the post. Some of this is thanks to a small sample size, diminishing athleticism and curbed quickness, but his surrounding personnel deserves a smidge of blame, too. Even though some of their shooting percentages are up, opposing teams are still open to doubling off Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of Memphis’ roster.
A move to Cleveland would do freaking wonders for Gasol’s one-on-one game. The attention LeBron James demands is unrivaled, and picturing those two surrounded by three dead-eye snipers—like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, healthy Isaiah Thomas, or Jae Crowder—is a daydream. James has never played with someone like Gasol: A pass-first center who can space the floor, anchor an excellent defense, and singlehandedly create open threes on the weakside when he goes to work on the block.
And just think about the lineups Ty Lue could utilize with LeBron on the bench. Gasol and Love, by themselves, could become the NBA’s mightiest frontcourt tandem this side of New Orleans. Gasol helps in a likely Finals rematch against the Golden State Warriors in a way very few players can. He’s a savant on both ends.
The risk in trading a lottery pick for any player who can opt out of his contract in 2019, let alone a declining 33-year-old who plays the league’s least attractive position and would have to sacrifice a whole bunch of touches overnight, is an obvious risk—even if said pick is owned by a Brooklyn Nets squad that figures to finish with the sixth or seventh worst record and not the first or second.
But let’s play out one possible scenario if they don’t make a seismic trade: Cleveland adds a borderline-washed-up buyout candidate, loses in the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals, lands the sixth pick, watches LeBron leave in free agency, and is bad forever. If surrendering the Brooklyn pick for someone like Gasol is possible, then convincing James to stay is the right move.
Meanwhile, Memphis should do this in a heartbeat. Injuries around the Western Conference are keeping their playoff odds on a respirator, but Mike Conley’s weary Achilles tendon isn’t really allowing them to make up much ground. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last ten, with an offense that ranks 22nd despite them never, ever turning the ball over.
The smart long-term play here is to squeeze as much as they can get for Gasol, then rebuild around two lottery picks, with one potentially landing in the top five, in a five-player draft. They can also move on from Thompson and maybe even get a late first-rounder for his service as well. Memphis already has its own top-eight-protected first-round pick headed to Boston in 2019 (which becomes unprotected in 2021), so the best time to replenish their roster with high-upside youth is today.
2. Victor Oladipo…
Photo by Steve Mitchell - USA TODAY Sports
...has more points than Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and...Russell Westbrook. The Indiana Pacers have had a top-10 offense all year long despite not having Myles Turner (the dude everyone expected to be their best player) for seven games. Oladipo deserves a statue.
3. It’s Time to Expand Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Role
The Wizards are an obscenely dominant basketball team when John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. share the floor, outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions. This makes sense. Three of those players are on a max contract and the fourth is a 21-year-old southpaw who’s shooting 47 percent from above the break.
Washington knows what it has with its three best players, but Oubre Jr.’s growth is the variable worth watching. Right now he’s still raw and able to impact games with his athleticism, energy, and length. But knowing the ball ultimately starts in Wall or Beal’s hands—particularly throughout the postseason—it’s worth wondering what type of developmental path Washington should try and set their moldable Sixth Man on.
Oubre Jr. has only run a handful of pick-and-rolls this season, and, to nobody’s surprise, whenever he does dribble off a screen and try to make a play his timing and vision are both a little off.
Despite a leap in playing time, his assist to usage ratio is still near the bottom at his position (and down from where it was last season). He averages as many potential assists per game as DeAndre Jordan—fewer than Steven Adams and Tyson Chandler—and his 20.9 passes per game are fifth fewest in the entire league among all players who average at least 25 minutes.
This doesn’t make him selfish. Oubre Jr. is happy and willing to swing the ball and forfeit his own good shot so a teammate can have a better one. His job is to finish plays instead of start them, but given Washington’s routine bench struggles, it’d be a godsend if Oubre Jr. could quickly grow to become a reliable secondary or primary ball-handler when Wall and Beal both rest.
If the organization’s plan is to win with this foursome leading the way, the Wizards would be wrong to clone another Porter instead of encouraging Oubre Jr. to become a more versatile offensive weapon. In about eight fewer minutes per game, he touches the ball less than Jeff Green. It isn’t too early to diversify Oubre Jr.’s responsibilities. When you’re a good team that knows it’ll make the playoffs, that’s exactly what the regular season is for.
4. Everyone is Surprised by Portland’s Secret Weapon Except LeBron James
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to turn back the hands of time by deploying Jusuf Nurkic and Caleb Swanigan in their starting lineup. The mammoth-sized duo was a predictable disaster, clogging up driving lanes for C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, preventing either big from having as much room to operate in the post, and creating at least one mismatch on the defensive end that could be exploited by a more modernized frontcourt.
Despite going 2-1 during this week-long experiment—that was partly induced by injuries elsewhere on the roster—Portland consistently found itself in a hole from the jump, causing Blazers head coach Terry Stotts to start the third quarter of last Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic with Pat Connaughton, instead of Swanigan, on the court—a game-saving halftime adjustment. (Stotts’s final straw came two nights later when the Blazers scored 82 points in a very bad loss against the Sacramento Kings. Noah Vonleh has started at the four since.)
The buried lede here is that while Portland struggled to score trotting out two slow frontcourt players who don’t complement one another in any way, what they discovered during this same stretch is a three-guard unit that could be their secret weapon.
Lillard and McCollum are an obvious staple that create myriad headaches for the opposition. Throw Shabazz Napier into the mix and it’s pandemonium. The trio only played 20 minutes last season, but in 38 minutes this year they’ve blitzed opponents by 38 points per 100 possessions.
Last summer, Evan Turner was paid a handsome sum to be the ball-handler who could enable Portland’s two franchise guards to work off the ball, decimate opponents off screens and rouse panic by setting paralyzing picks for each other on the weakside. He can still do that, especially from the block when backing down smaller defenders. But replace Turner with Napier and install a versatile wing like Mo Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and all of a sudden the court becomes a hornet’s nest.
The offensive upside is clear: three ball handlers who can shoot, drive, and pass, constantly racing around to kick dirt in your eyes, is hard to slow down. But so far (small-sample-size alert!) they’ve also been able to hold their own on the defensive end, in part because Napier plays like an unswattable mosquito whose hands and feet never stop moving.
But there are limits to being “frisky” when you aren’t catching an opponent off guard, and some of their success is because Napier’s three-point percentage is actively burning a hole in the ozone layer. That doesn’t mean this speedy triad should be demoted or even stuffed in glass as a “Break-in-Case-of-Emergency” axe. Stotts should ride this unique group as long as he can, knowing few teams have the personnel to match up with it on both ends.
5. Jimmy Butler is Sacrificing Too Much
The Timberwolves are not the NBA’s most disappointing team. Since November 1st, they own a top-10 defense, and for the whole season they’re outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson share the floor. But this team, at 10-7, feels disappointing.
They’ve yet to find a way to synchronize their overwhelming talent in a way that accentuates each individual’s skill-set, and startling losses against the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons (a game they should’ve won, considering they were home, with a day of rest, against a team that’d just dropped two in a row) have been the result.
Given his contract situation, past performance, and high expectations, Butler’s struggle to look like himself is probably the team’s largest concern. Nobody should’ve expected a fluid overnight fit, but 15 games into his seventh season, the three-time All-Star has yet to find any rhythm in a system he’s already familiar with. Sacrifice is wonderful and necessary, but the degree to which Butler has altered his role to appease Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague is a little excessive.
What’s best for him is probably also best for the Timberwolves. Instead, watching him play he looks out of rhythm, like he doesn’t know when to hunt and when to be passive. The degree of difficulty in some of Butler’s scoring situations has been higher than it should be, too, given the influx of talent by his side. Last year, 17.1 percent of Butler’s shots were hoisted when the shot clock was “late” or “very late,” according to NBA.com. This year, that’s up to 25.9 percent. He has more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which sounds nice but has never been his strength.
According to Synergy Sports, Butler’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are down 11 percent from last season. What was once a tool he used to carve defenses up has been more of a dull blade.
Butler’s usage is down, he’s touching the ball 11 fewer times per game, his turnover rate is at a career high, and his free-throw rate is at a career low. That last point is crucial. What initially elevated Butler to an elite level was his ability to draw contact and live at the line. Last season, he was fouled on 20.1 percent of his shots, which ranked in the 98th percentile among all wings. That percentage is currently half what it was. (A plethora of pull-up twos are acceptable when you live at the free-throw line; he’s not quite Tobias Harris, but trending in that direction.)
So much of this is because Minnesota’s roster simply isn’t conducive for a slash-first-ask-questions-later bulldog like Butler. His drives to the basket are now more complicated than Catherine Zeta-Jones vs. one million lasers, in large part because defenses are ready and willing to help off a majority of his teammates.
There are few in-house alterations that can make life easier for Butler, but he hardly ever plays with Nemanja Bjelica (who, ho-hum, is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league right now); in the 52 minutes they’ve shared the floor Minnesota has obliterated everything. (General side note: Gibson has been awesome but Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad have not—play Bjelica more often Thibs!)
There’s no need to panic in Minnesota. But youth, lack of shooting, and non-existent depth at the wing are concerns they’ll have to navigate the rest of the season. Putting the ball in Butler’s hands more often won’t solve them, but Jamal Crawford, Teague, and Wiggins should not have a higher usage rate than he does.
Among all players who’ve seen the floor for about the same or fewer minutes than Butler this season, Evan Fournier, Jayson Tatum, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeremy Lamb, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic have all scored more points. Something needs to change.
6. Toronto’s Offense Is Official
Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto’s offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
Last season, the Raptors ranked dead last in assist rate. (They were 28th in November during the 2016-17 season.) This year, they’re up to 14th, with 17 more passes per game. They’re 14th in pace (up from 22nd last season), shooting way fewer long twos and a lot more threes. Paths to the rim are wider and open more frequently. The result? They rank fourth in offense and third in effective field goal percentage.
It’s growth in real time, partly due to the infusion of youth from guys like OG Anunoby (the most underrated rookie in an abnormally loaded class), Fred VanVleet (whose name I thought was “Van Fleet” for about two years), Delon Wright (who just dislocated his shoulder), and a few others.
Toronto’s two lynch pins are doing their part and C.J. Miles is flashing Ryan Anderson-esque range. The ball moves better when DeMar DeRozan isn’t on the floor, but that’s also when their offensive rating drops to its lowest point. Probably because the guy’s footwork makes it look like he’s hovering two inches above the court at all times.
DeRozan jacked up three shots beyond the arc in the opening minutes of Sunday’s win against the Wall-less Wizards. While still low, his three-point rate is exactly double what it was last season. They aren't perfect, but Toronto's evolutionary shot profile makes them the second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
7. Orlando Treats the Three-Point Line With Too Much Reverence
The Magic should shine on defense. They have athletes who excel at key positions and a coach who’s known for extracting brick-wall execution from much less physical ability.
But after a hot start shooting the ball, Orlando’s defense has become one of the league’s 10 worst. Part of that’s due to injuries up and down the roster, and high usage big men—like Nikola Vucevic—who have known limitations. But a bit of their struggle can be explained by an aggressive “stay home!” attitude towards the three-point line.
Orlando’s defenders, as twitchy as most of them are, have been directed to form a permanent fence at the arc. They don’t allow swing passes to open threats on the weakside and aim to make outside shooters feel claustrophobic. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando holds its opponents to a 27 percent three-point rate, which is second-lowest in the league. And from there, the strategy of always being in position to contest outside shots has worked pretty well, with opponents only making 34.5 percent of their threes (though that’s likely a bit more happenstance than strategic ingenuity).
On the surface, this is a rousing success! But in reality it’s like they’re hermetically sealing a body part that actually needs reconstructive surgery. Here’s an example:
At the top, Aaron Gordon does a good job keeping Joe Ingles from getting to the middle of the floor, leaping up and forcing him left. But as the Australian swingman drives towards Vucevic, neither Elfrid Payton nor Evan Fournier pinch in to tag the rolling Derrick Favors. Instead, they treat Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell like they’re Splash Brothers when, actually, they're Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell. Favors snatches Ingles’s pocket pass and finishes with an easy dunk.
The moral of the story: Personnel matters. It’s great that the Magic are executing their coach’s scheme and denying three-point attempts en mass in a league that’s filled with teams that are obsessed with that exact shot, but nothing will ever be more efficient than a layup, and nobody is allowing more of those than the Magic.
8. The Willie Cauley-Stein Bandwagon Has Plenty of Room
Photo by Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports
I will forever believe that Willie Cauley-Stein is a useful, if not good, basketball player. He’s my personal equivalent to how a specific segment of NBA Twitter once felt (feels?) about Anthony Randolph. If Cauley-Stein was, like, seven percent more confident and nine percent more aggressive, with a point guard who draws attention, manipulates back-line rotations, and can shoot, he’d be Steven Adams.
Cauley-Stein actually made a three last week, too, and is one of a few centers who’s defended Joel Embiid without much help and not been steamrolled in the process. I want nothing more than to see him develop outside of Sacramento, not sharing the court with Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Is that too much to ask?
9. You Can’t Help But Respect Carmelo Anthony’s Commitment to Being Carmelo Anthony
Before clarifying is words and backtracking from the belief that he, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook need to be more selfish in order for the Oklahoma City Thunder to find offensive nirvana, Carmelo Anthony concluded that he and his two All-Star teammates are instinctive players who need to be more instinctive.
Even though his instincts have been wrong for quite some time, that’s a perfectly fine thing to believe. But if I played for the Thunder and read this quote, I'd refrain from ever passing him the ball. On top of a defensive demeanor that exudes the same amount of energy and attention I used to display on Thanksgiving morning throughout my early 20’s*, Anthony’s assist to usage ratio is only higher than nine percent of fellow forwards around the NBA. He could wear wide receiver gloves sprayed with stickum for an entire quarter and nobody would notice the difference.
*The below isn’t a great reflection of Oklahoma City’s collective effort, but Anthony somehow manages to make everyone else look like they're hustling their ass off. He airballs a jumper and then backpedals to midcourt as the rest of his teammates turn to run.
Salute.
10. Donovan Mitchell’s Audaciousness Is Inspiring
The Utah Jazz are in a sad place, but, on the bright side, they also have Donovan Mitchell, a fearless firecracker with more responsibilities on his plate than any rookie on a decent team should. Just look at this wraparound pass to Rodney Hood, the finishing touch on Utah’s execution of a Hammer action.
Freeze the clip at the exact moment the ball leaves his fingertips. Even though Mitchell knows Hood is about to (probably) spring free in the corner, it still must feel a little scary to sidearm a ball the length of the baseline towards empty space. It arrives a little low, but that's nitpicking. This was hard and he made it look easy.
Most of the 21-year-old’s offensive numbers are dreadful, but bold, trustworthy traits seen in sequences like this are enough to convince me the Jazz have a keeper.
The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution
With tomorrow being Thanksgiving (Happy Thanksgiving!), The Outlet Pass has arrived one day earlier than normal this week. Enjoy!
1. In Honor of Thanksgiving, Here’s a Fake Trade We Can All Be Thankful For
Cleveland gets: Marc Gasol Memphis gets: Brooklyn’s first-round pick in 2018, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert
When Gasol first signed his five-year $110 million deal nearly two and half years ago, popular thought was father time would tarnish it sooner than later. This was something the Memphis Grizzlies had to do, even while fully understanding the odds-on risk attached. (A broken foot suffered the following February increased the likelihood of it being a sunk cost.)
Instead, at 33 years old and in his 10th season, with a new coach, overhauled system, and personal submission to the three-point line, Gasol is still kicking as a borderline All-Star, albeit one whose crater-sized impact in Memphis isn’t as expansive as it used to be.
According to Synergy Sports, Gasol is currently the least efficient player in the league when he gets double-teamed in the post. Some of this is thanks to a small sample size, diminishing athleticism and curbed quickness, but his surrounding personnel deserves a smidge of blame, too. Even though some of their shooting percentages are up, opposing teams are still open to doubling off Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, James Ennis, Dillon Brooks, and the rest of Memphis’ roster.
A move to Cleveland would do freaking wonders for Gasol’s one-on-one game. The attention LeBron James demands is unrivaled, and picturing those two surrounded by three dead-eye snipers—like Kyle Korver, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, healthy Isaiah Thomas, or Jae Crowder—is a daydream. James has never played with someone like Gasol: A pass-first center who can space the floor, anchor an excellent defense, and singlehandedly create open threes on the weakside when he goes to work on the block.
And just think about the lineups Ty Lue could utilize with LeBron on the bench. Gasol and Love, by themselves, could become the NBA’s mightiest frontcourt tandem this side of New Orleans. Gasol helps in a likely Finals rematch against the Golden State Warriors in a way very few players can. He’s a savant on both ends.
The risk in trading a lottery pick for any player who can opt out of his contract in 2019, let alone a declining 33-year-old who plays the league’s least attractive position and would have to sacrifice a whole bunch of touches overnight, is an obvious risk—even if said pick is owned by a Brooklyn Nets squad that figures to finish with the sixth or seventh worst record and not the first or second.
But let’s play out one possible scenario if they don’t make a seismic trade: Cleveland adds a borderline-washed-up buyout candidate, loses in the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals, lands the sixth pick, watches LeBron leave in free agency, and is bad forever. If surrendering the Brooklyn pick for someone like Gasol is possible, then convincing James to stay is the right move.
Meanwhile, Memphis should do this in a heartbeat. Injuries around the Western Conference are keeping their playoff odds on a respirator, but Mike Conley’s weary Achilles tendon isn’t really allowing them to make up much ground. They’ve lost five in a row and eight of their last ten, with an offense that ranks 22nd despite them never, ever turning the ball over.
The smart long-term play here is to squeeze as much as they can get for Gasol, then rebuild around two lottery picks, with one potentially landing in the top five, in a five-player draft. They can also move on from Thompson and maybe even get a late first-rounder for his service as well. Memphis already has its own top-eight-protected first-round pick headed to Boston in 2019 (which becomes unprotected in 2021), so the best time to replenish their roster with high-upside youth is today.
2. Victor Oladipo…
Photo by Steve Mitchell - USA TODAY Sports
...has more points than Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, and...Russell Westbrook. The Indiana Pacers have had a top-10 offense all year long despite not having Myles Turner (the dude everyone expected to be their best player) for seven games. Oladipo deserves a statue.
3. It’s Time to Expand Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Role
The Wizards are an obscenely dominant basketball team when John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre Jr. share the floor, outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions. This makes sense. Three of those players are on a max contract and the fourth is a 21-year-old southpaw who’s shooting 47 percent from above the break.
Washington knows what it has with its three best players, but Oubre Jr.’s growth is the variable worth watching. Right now he’s still raw and able to impact games with his athleticism, energy, and length. But knowing the ball ultimately starts in Wall or Beal’s hands—particularly throughout the postseason—it’s worth wondering what type of developmental path Washington should try and set their moldable Sixth Man on.
Oubre Jr. has only run a handful of pick-and-rolls this season, and, to nobody’s surprise, whenever he does dribble off a screen and try to make a play his timing and vision are both a little off.
Despite a leap in playing time, his assist to usage ratio is still near the bottom at his position (and down from where it was last season). He averages as many potential assists per game as DeAndre Jordan—fewer than Steven Adams and Tyson Chandler—and his 20.9 passes per game are fifth fewest in the entire league among all players who average at least 25 minutes.
This doesn’t make him selfish. Oubre Jr. is happy and willing to swing the ball and forfeit his own good shot so a teammate can have a better one. His job is to finish plays instead of start them, but given Washington’s routine bench struggles, it’d be a godsend if Oubre Jr. could quickly grow to become a reliable secondary or primary ball-handler when Wall and Beal both rest.
If the organization’s plan is to win with this foursome leading the way, the Wizards would be wrong to clone another Porter instead of encouraging Oubre Jr. to become a more versatile offensive weapon. In about eight fewer minutes per game, he touches the ball less than Jeff Green. It isn’t too early to diversify Oubre Jr.’s responsibilities. When you’re a good team that knows it’ll make the playoffs, that’s exactly what the regular season is for.
4. Everyone is Surprised by Portland’s Secret Weapon Except LeBron James
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to turn back the hands of time by deploying Jusuf Nurkic and Caleb Swanigan in their starting lineup. The mammoth-sized duo was a predictable disaster, clogging up driving lanes for C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, preventing either big from having as much room to operate in the post, and creating at least one mismatch on the defensive end that could be exploited by a more modernized frontcourt.
Despite going 2-1 during this week-long experiment—that was partly induced by injuries elsewhere on the roster—Portland consistently found itself in a hole from the jump, causing Blazers head coach Terry Stotts to start the third quarter of last Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic with Pat Connaughton, instead of Swanigan, on the court—a game-saving halftime adjustment. (Stotts’s final straw came two nights later when the Blazers scored 82 points in a very bad loss against the Sacramento Kings. Noah Vonleh has started at the four since.)
The buried lede here is that while Portland struggled to score trotting out two slow frontcourt players who don’t complement one another in any way, what they discovered during this same stretch is a three-guard unit that could be their secret weapon.
Lillard and McCollum are an obvious staple that create myriad headaches for the opposition. Throw Shabazz Napier into the mix and it’s pandemonium. The trio only played 20 minutes last season, but in 38 minutes this year they’ve blitzed opponents by 38 points per 100 possessions.
Last summer, Evan Turner was paid a handsome sum to be the ball-handler who could enable Portland’s two franchise guards to work off the ball, decimate opponents off screens and rouse panic by setting paralyzing picks for each other on the weakside. He can still do that, especially from the block when backing down smaller defenders. But replace Turner with Napier and install a versatile wing like Mo Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu at the four, and all of a sudden the court becomes a hornet’s nest.
The offensive upside is clear: three ball handlers who can shoot, drive, and pass, constantly racing around to kick dirt in your eyes, is hard to slow down. But so far (small-sample-size alert!) they’ve also been able to hold their own on the defensive end, in part because Napier plays like an unswattable mosquito whose hands and feet never stop moving.
But there are limits to being “frisky” when you aren’t catching an opponent off guard, and some of their success is because Napier’s three-point percentage is actively burning a hole in the ozone layer. That doesn’t mean this speedy triad should be demoted or even stuffed in glass as a “Break-in-Case-of-Emergency” axe. Stotts should ride this unique group as long as he can, knowing few teams have the personnel to match up with it on both ends.
5. Jimmy Butler is Sacrificing Too Much
The Timberwolves are not the NBA’s most disappointing team. Since November 1st, they own a top-10 defense, and for the whole season they’re outscoring opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions when Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson share the floor. But this team, at 10-7, feels disappointing.
They’ve yet to find a way to synchronize their overwhelming talent in a way that accentuates each individual’s skill-set, and startling losses against the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons (a game they should’ve won, considering they were home, with a day of rest, against a team that’d just dropped two in a row) have been the result.
Given his contract situation, past performance, and high expectations, Butler’s struggle to look like himself is probably the team’s largest concern. Nobody should’ve expected a fluid overnight fit, but 15 games into his seventh season, the three-time All-Star has yet to find any rhythm in a system he’s already familiar with. Sacrifice is wonderful and necessary, but the degree to which Butler has altered his role to appease Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague is a little excessive.
What’s best for him is probably also best for the Timberwolves. Instead, watching him play he looks out of rhythm, like he doesn’t know when to hunt and when to be passive. The degree of difficulty in some of Butler’s scoring situations has been higher than it should be, too, given the influx of talent by his side. Last year, 17.1 percent of Butler’s shots were hoisted when the shot clock was “late” or “very late,” according to NBA.com. This year, that’s up to 25.9 percent. He has more catch-and-shoot opportunities, which sounds nice but has never been his strength.
According to Synergy Sports, Butler’s possessions as a pick-and-roll ball-handler are down 11 percent from last season. What was once a tool he used to carve defenses up has been more of a dull blade.
Butler’s usage is down, he’s touching the ball 11 fewer times per game, his turnover rate is at a career high, and his free-throw rate is at a career low. That last point is crucial. What initially elevated Butler to an elite level was his ability to draw contact and live at the line. Last season, he was fouled on 20.1 percent of his shots, which ranked in the 98th percentile among all wings. That percentage is currently half what it was. (A plethora of pull-up twos are acceptable when you live at the free-throw line; he’s not quite Tobias Harris, but trending in that direction.)
So much of this is because Minnesota’s roster simply isn’t conducive for a slash-first-ask-questions-later bulldog like Butler. His drives to the basket are now more complicated than Catherine Zeta-Jones vs. one million lasers, in large part because defenses are ready and willing to help off a majority of his teammates.
There are few in-house alterations that can make life easier for Butler, but he hardly ever plays with Nemanja Bjelica (who, ho-hum, is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league right now); in the 52 minutes they’ve shared the floor Minnesota has obliterated everything. (General side note: Gibson has been awesome but Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad have not—play Bjelica more often Thibs!)
There’s no need to panic in Minnesota. But youth, lack of shooting, and non-existent depth at the wing are concerns they’ll have to navigate the rest of the season. Putting the ball in Butler’s hands more often won’t solve them, but Jamal Crawford, Teague, and Wiggins should not have a higher usage rate than he does.
Among all players who’ve seen the floor for about the same or fewer minutes than Butler this season, Evan Fournier, Jayson Tatum, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeremy Lamb, Will Barton, and Bojan Bogdanovic have all scored more points. Something needs to change.
6. Toronto’s Offense Is Official
Despite struggles in the clutch, which reflect a reversion back to the isolation-heavy, late-shot-clock-heaving approach that hurts them so much when it matters most, Toronto’s offense is quietly morphing into an unselfish monster.
Last season, the Raptors ranked dead last in assist rate. (They were 28th in November during the 2016-17 season.) This year, they’re up to 14th, with 17 more passes per game. They’re 14th in pace (up from 22nd last season), shooting way fewer long twos and a lot more threes. Paths to the rim are wider and open more frequently. The result? They rank fourth in offense and third in effective field goal percentage.
It’s growth in real time, partly due to the infusion of youth from guys like OG Anunoby (the most underrated rookie in an abnormally loaded class), Fred VanVleet (whose name I thought was “Van Fleet” for about two years), Delon Wright (who just dislocated his shoulder), and a few others.
Toronto’s two lynch pins are doing their part and C.J. Miles is flashing Ryan Anderson-esque range. The ball moves better when DeMar DeRozan isn’t on the floor, but that’s also when their offensive rating drops to its lowest point. Probably because the guy’s footwork makes it look like he’s hovering two inches above the court at all times.
DeRozan jacked up three shots beyond the arc in the opening minutes of Sunday’s win against the Wall-less Wizards. While still low, his three-point rate is exactly double what it was last season. They aren't perfect, but Toronto's evolutionary shot profile makes them the second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
7. Orlando Treats the Three-Point Line With Too Much Reverence
The Magic should shine on defense. They have athletes who excel at key positions and a coach who’s known for extracting brick-wall execution from much less physical ability.
But after a hot start shooting the ball, Orlando’s defense has become one of the league’s 10 worst. Part of that’s due to injuries up and down the roster, and high usage big men—like Nikola Vucevic—who have known limitations. But a bit of their struggle can be explained by an aggressive “stay home!” attitude towards the three-point line.
Orlando’s defenders, as twitchy as most of them are, have been directed to form a permanent fence at the arc. They don’t allow swing passes to open threats on the weakside and aim to make outside shooters feel claustrophobic. According to Cleaning The Glass, Orlando holds its opponents to a 27 percent three-point rate, which is second-lowest in the league. And from there, the strategy of always being in position to contest outside shots has worked pretty well, with opponents only making 34.5 percent of their threes (though that’s likely a bit more happenstance than strategic ingenuity).
On the surface, this is a rousing success! But in reality it’s like they’re hermetically sealing a body part that actually needs reconstructive surgery. Here’s an example:
At the top, Aaron Gordon does a good job keeping Joe Ingles from getting to the middle of the floor, leaping up and forcing him left. But as the Australian swingman drives towards Vucevic, neither Elfrid Payton nor Evan Fournier pinch in to tag the rolling Derrick Favors. Instead, they treat Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell like they’re Splash Brothers when, actually, they're Raul Neto and Donovan Mitchell. Favors snatches Ingles’s pocket pass and finishes with an easy dunk.
The moral of the story: Personnel matters. It’s great that the Magic are executing their coach’s scheme and denying three-point attempts en mass in a league that’s filled with teams that are obsessed with that exact shot, but nothing will ever be more efficient than a layup, and nobody is allowing more of those than the Magic.
8. The Willie Cauley-Stein Bandwagon Has Plenty of Room
Photo by Brad Penner - USA TODAY Sports
I will forever believe that Willie Cauley-Stein is a useful, if not good, basketball player. He’s my personal equivalent to how a specific segment of NBA Twitter once felt (feels?) about Anthony Randolph. If Cauley-Stein was, like, seven percent more confident and nine percent more aggressive, with a point guard who draws attention, manipulates back-line rotations, and can shoot, he’d be Steven Adams.
Cauley-Stein actually made a three last week, too, and is one of a few centers who’s defended Joel Embiid without much help and not been steamrolled in the process. I want nothing more than to see him develop outside of Sacramento, not sharing the court with Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. Is that too much to ask?
9. You Can’t Help But Respect Carmelo Anthony’s Commitment to Being Carmelo Anthony
Before clarifying is words and backtracking from the belief that he, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook need to be more selfish in order for the Oklahoma City Thunder to find offensive nirvana, Carmelo Anthony concluded that he and his two All-Star teammates are instinctive players who need to be more instinctive.
Even though his instincts have been wrong for quite some time, that’s a perfectly fine thing to believe. But if I played for the Thunder and read this quote, I'd refrain from ever passing him the ball. On top of a defensive demeanor that exudes the same amount of energy and attention I used to display on Thanksgiving morning throughout my early 20’s*, Anthony’s assist to usage ratio is only higher than nine percent of fellow forwards around the NBA. He could wear wide receiver gloves sprayed with stickum for an entire quarter and nobody would notice the difference.
*The below isn’t a great reflection of Oklahoma City’s collective effort, but Anthony somehow manages to make everyone else look like they're hustling their ass off. He airballs a jumper and then backpedals to midcourt as the rest of his teammates turn to run.
Salute.
10. Donovan Mitchell’s Audaciousness Is Inspiring
The Utah Jazz are in a sad place, but, on the bright side, they also have Donovan Mitchell, a fearless firecracker with more responsibilities on his plate than any rookie on a decent team should. Just look at this wraparound pass to Rodney Hood, the finishing touch on Utah’s execution of a Hammer action.
Freeze the clip at the exact moment the ball leaves his fingertips. Even though Mitchell knows Hood is about to (probably) spring free in the corner, it still must feel a little scary to sidearm a ball the length of the baseline towards empty space. It arrives a little low, but that's nitpicking. This was hard and he made it look easy.
Most of the 21-year-old’s offensive numbers are dreadful, but bold, trustworthy traits seen in sequences like this are enough to convince me the Jazz have a keeper.
The Outlet Pass: Butler's Sacrifice, a Fun Cavs Trade, Oubre's Evolution published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv
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MLB season preview: The Rangers are within reach of that elusive World Series win
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The Texas Rangers enter 2017 with one goal and it’s the same goal they’ve had for years, the same goal that’s been lingering since that disappointing 2010 World Series loss to the Giants.
The Rangers want to win it all. They never have, like ever. And if 2017 is going to be the year, the Rangers aren’t in a bad place. They return a team that has won its division the past two seasons, that has two great pitchers atop its rotation and a lineup that is a potent mix of exciting young players and established veterans.
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There are all the makings of a World Series team here, but there’s also a big hump that they haven’t been able to get over. The Rangers have lost in the American League Division Series the last two years, both times to the Toronto Blue Jays. Last year, they were swept out of the postseason despite winning the most games in baseball.
To help ease the sting of that, Rangers made some low-cost, high-reward additions this offseason. If Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross can finally realize their potential, or if Jurickson Profar has a big breakout season, the Rangers could be in a really good place. It’s important to remember, though, the Houston Astros are good too, so winning a third straight AL West title won’t come easy.
ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS Additions: Andrew Cashner, Mike Napoli, Tyson Ross Subtractions: Carlos Beltran, Ian Desmond, Mitch Moreland
After winning 95 games in 2016, the Rangers mostly stood pat in the offseason. Andrew Cashner comes over from Miami looking for a bounce back season, while Mike Napoli looks to begin his third stint with the team. Napoli experienced a resurgence with the Indians last year, and is hoping to carry that over in Texas despite his age.
The losses here are more significant. Ian Desmond capitalized on his one-year, buy-low deal and took off to Colorado. Carlos Beltran also departed after being a hired playoff mercenary. While both losses will hurt, the Rangers are still well-positioned in the division. Some combination of Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar and Napoli should replace those players. The lineup will look different, but should still be pretty strong. (Chris Cwik)
The Rangers are hoping Yu Darvish is back to his ace self after Tommy John surgery. (Getty Images)
KEY PLAYER Yu Darvish is a very good pitcher. But he only has the chance to be a very good pitcher when he’s healthy. And that’s the problem. Darvish started the season on the DL after missing the entirety of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and would spend even more time out of commission with a back injury. He needs to turn in a healthy 2017, because the Rangers rotation can’t handle a lot of injuries. But also because when Darvish is healthy, he���s so, so good. Despite his injuries limiting him to just 100 innings last, he lowered his walk rate and increased his strikeout rate. That is the Darvish the Rangers need. They just need it over a full season. (Liz Roscher)
PROJECTED LINEUP & ROTATION Lineup 1. Carlos Gomez, CF (.231/.298/.384, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 18 SB) 2. Shin-Soo Choo, DH (.242/.357/.399, 7 HR, 17 RBI) 3. Adrian Beltre, 3B (.300/.358/.521, 32 HR, 104 RBI, 89 R) 4. Mike Napoli, 1B (.239/.335/.465, 34 RBI, 101 RBI, 92 R) 5. Rougned Odor, 2B (.271/.296/.502, 33 HR, 88 RBI, 89 R, 14 SB) 6. Jonathan Lucroy, C (.292/.355/.500, 24 HR, 81 RBI) 7. Nomar Mazara, RF (.266/.320/.419, 20 HR, 64 RBI) 8. Elvis Andrus, SS (.302/.362/.439, 8 HR, 69 RBI, 75 R) 9. Jurickson Profar, LF (.239/.321/.338, 5 HR, 20 RBI)
Rotation 1. Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA, 200.2 IP, 200 K) 2. Yu Darvish (7-5. 3.41 ERA, 100.1 IP, 132 K) 3. Martin Perez (10-11, 4.39 ERA, 198.2 IP, 103 K) 4. A.J. Griffin (7-4, 5.07 ERA, 119 IP, 107 K) 5. Dillon Gee (8-9, 4.68 ERA, 125 IP, 89 K)
Adrian Beltre is Mr. Dependable for the Rangers. (Getty Images)
BEST-CASE SCENARIO A third-straight AL West title is a very reasonable expectation. The Rangers have strengths in every area. The lineup is loaded from top to bottom. The starting rotation has two aces. The bullpen is well stocked, and there’s plenty of experience here too. Honestly, it would not be surprising to see this team representing the American League in the World Series. (Mark Townsend)
WORST-CASE SCENARIO No team knows the impact of injuries more than the Rangers. They’ve had a couple recent seasons derailed by the loss of key players, and that’s the main hurdle standing in the way this season too. They could survive a couple losses, maybe, but if the injuries pile up then all bets are off. (Townsend)
PRESSING FANTASY QUESTION Who is Carlos Gomez entering his age-31 season? Not every baseball player will produce a linear career shape, but in the case of Gomez, we’re talking about a butterfly’s route, an erratic graph. In Gomez’s early 20s, he couldn’t hit a lick. In his mid-to-later 20s, he matured into an All-Star, and a dynamic offensive player. A 2015 slump was taken in stride by most of the fantasy community, but then Gomez completely bottomed out in 2016, with the Astros designating him for assignment in August.
Ah, but perhaps Gomez got his career back on track with the Rangers. Gomez posted a .284/.362/.543 line with his new club, with eight homers and five steals over 33 games. Pro-rate that pace to a full season and we’re looking at a star again. Gomez is never going to be a plate-discipline king, but his contact rate spiked nicely in his new city.
[Elsewhere: Read more pressing fantasy questions about the Rangers]
Gomez reportedly had multi-year offers on the table in the offseason, but he decided to take a prove-it one-year deal with Texas. Gomez and agent Scott Boras are gambling for a return to stardom, then a cash windfall 10 months from now. Gomez’s game was especially fun at Globe Life Park — or whatever they’re calling the Ballpark at Arlington today — where he posted an .877 OPS and seven homers and five steals over 28 games. Mash it all up and Go-Go offers an intriguing upside around his current ADP of 153. (Scott Pianowski)
BEST FOLLOW Ever since the World Baseball Classic started, former Ranger Michael Young has been serving up opinions hot and fresh. Here he is talking about Dominican Republic manager Tony Pena getting tossed from a game.
Guy is emotional repping his country. Toss him?! Brutal. Turn around and walk away. Let the players play. And the thing was a foot off…
— Michael Young (@MikeyY626) March 18, 2017
He also has opinions on football, movies, little league, his former teammates, and everything under the sun. (Roscher)
BEST REASON TO ATTEND A GAME If you’re making the trip to Arlington, you might as well try and glimpse AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys’ monstrous venue contains the largest video board in any stadium. They offer tours and are just four minutes away from Globe Life Park.
If you want a truly exhilarating day, you can always head to Six Flags over Texas prior to a night game. Ride some roller coasters and eat some funnel cake before experiencing the ups and downs of a major-league baseball while … eating some more funnel cake.
Finally, if you’re a big fan of bowling, you can always go to the International Bowling Museum & Hall of Fame. You can work on your heckling abilities by watching video of bowling great Pete Weber. (Cwik)
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Martinsville cheat sheet: STP 500 fantasy rankings
Kyle Larson started and ended the Auto Club 400 in first. (Getty)
Martinsville cheat sheet: STP 500 fantasy rankings
Special to Yahoo Sports By Dan Beaver
The STP 500 is the first of three short track races in the next four weeks. For most of the drivers in the field, this is where they first earned their experience. In the equation of horsepower and handling, the balance tips in the drivers’ favor and fantasy owners can take a few risks on wild-card, dark-horse picks.
1. Jimmie Johnson: If he is going to break out of his funk on any track, Martinsville is the place Johnson will shine. Fantasy players should ignore his recent trouble and start him with confidence.
2. Kyle Busch: He was forced to miss the spring 2015 Martinsville race, but since then Busch has had a perfect record of top-fives including last year’s STP 500 win.
3. Kevin Harvick: The No. 4 team has been plagued with plenty of bad luck and mistakes this year, but Harvick always seems to find a way to rebound and finish in the top five.
4. Brad Keselowski: With a pair of top-fives at Martinsville last year, Keselowski doubled his output on this track. He is also riding a current four-race, top-five streak in 2017.
5. Kyle Larson: Now that he has broken into Victory Lane, it is likely that Larson is going to earn a lot more wins. Martinsville has not been one of his better courses, but momentum will level the playing field.
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6. Joey Logano: In 2014 and 2015, Logano posted 10 consecutive top-10s on short, flat tracks. He was well en route to a victory at Martinsville that fall before getting wrecked by Kenseth.
7. Chase Elliott: Martinsville is a track that has been dominated by Hendrick Motorsports in the past. The No. 24 team has a great baseline setup that should propel Elliott to another top-10.
8. Martin Truex Jr.: With one victory in the bank, Truex can roll the dice at the end of races. Last week, fantasy owners learned that is not always a good thing for their roster.
9. Jamie McMurray: The Chip Ganassi Racing organization is poised to have their best season ever and McMurray is doing a yeoman’s job. He enters the weekend with three consecutive short track top-10s.
10. Denny Hamlin: An accident just shy of the halfway mark last spring is the only time during the past four Martinsville races that Hamlin failed to crack the top five.
11. Clint Bowyer: Racing is finally fun again for Bowyer and that is making all the difference in the world. Throw his recent stats out and ride the momentum.
12. Ryan Blaney: The No. 21 has finished in the top 10 in every other race for the past eight. If that pattern holds, the best fantasy players can expect is a result in the teens for Blaney at Martinsville.
13. Erik Jones: Mistakes in the pits are going to happen from time to time. The real measure of strength is in how a driver rebounds and Jones’ 12th at Auto Club should make fantasy owners very hopeful.
14. Daniel Suarez: For most of the Auto Club 400, it appeared Suarez would not come close to finishing in the top 15, but he is showing a strong tendency to restart well. That got him back-to-back top-10s.
15. Matt Kenseth: He has had a top-10 capable car every week, but three accidents have mired Kenseth deep in the points’ standings. It is going to take a while be players learn to trust him again.
16. Ty Dillon: His Rookie of the Year rivals have scored top-10s while Dillon has a best result of 15th, but the driver of the No. 13 has been very consistent and that is how one ultimately improves.
17. Kasey Kahne: Late-race chaos has cost Kahne an opportunity to sweep the top 15. Now that Johnson is improving, expect the No. 5 team’s results to take a dip.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: A little loss of reflex or aggression can result in the difference of a tenth of a second. That has relegated Earnhardt to a mid-pack position all year.
19. Ryan Newman: If Newman had finished in the top 10 in the Auto Club 400, he would have been a great option this week. He didn’t and isn’t based on how few laps he spent at the front of the field in that event.
20. Kurt Busch: One does not know what will go wrong for Busch at Martinsville, but it is almost certain that something will if the past three weeks are any indication.
21. AJ Allmendinger: Last fall, Allmendinger scored three consecutive top-10s on three distinct tracks. One of these was a 10th in the Goody’s 500 at Martinsville.
22. Aric Almirola: His results have not garnered a lot of attention this season, but that makes Almirola a surprisingly good value with three straight top-20s. He has been flying under the radar.
23. Austin Dillon: Last fall, Dillon failed to advance to round three of the playoffs despite scoring back-to-back top-10s at Kansas and Talladega. That may have broken his spirit because he has not earned another since.
24. Paul Menard: Nine of Menard’s last 12 races in 2016/2017 ended worse than they started, so pay particular attention to how he qualifies at Martinsville.
25. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Just when fantasy owners began to think it is safe to trust the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers, they both were swept into the same late-race accident at Auto Club.
26. Trevor Bayne: Roush-Fenway Racing has never been particularly strong on short, flat tracks, which makes this a good week to evaluate Bayne and his teammate Stenhouse.
27. Matt DiBenedetto: To succeed in fantasy NASCAR, players have to manage the bottom of the roster as well as the top. DiBenedetto has finished in the high-20s in his last four races this season.
28. Danica Patrick: One of the reasons handicapping NASCAR is so difficult is that on occasion drivers earn top-10s on the heels of consecutive 30-something results on a given track. That happened to Patrick in 2015 at Martinsville.
29. Landon Cassill: Consistency is important for drivers and fantasy owners alike. Cassill has finished in the 20s in all four 2017 starts on unrestricted speedways.
30. David Ragan: Martinsville is a driver’s track and that should level the playing field between marquee and moderately-funded teams. Ragan still has to beat the best in the business to make his mark, however.
31. Michael McDowell: Last week was the worst performance by the No. 95 all year, so it might be time to rest McDowell for a race or two.
32. Chris Buescher: The Camping World 500k is the only event this year in which Buescher finished on the lead lap. Martinsville is similarly flat, but it is much more difficult to complete the distance on this tight bullring.
33. Reed Sorenson: Without the No. 55 in the field, Premium Motorsports should be able to focus their effort on Sorenson. That might pick up a position or two in the final rundown.
34. Gray Gaulding: This Rookie of the Year candidate has three previous starts on short, flat tracks. He has failed to keep his car running until the end in any of them, including at Martinsville last fall.
35. Jeffrey Earnhardt: He has not always been running well, but Earnhardt had been running at the end of every short, flat track race he started until a broken transmission sent him home early from the Camping World 500k.
36. Cole Whitt: The driver of the No. 72 has 17 previous starts in the Cup series on tracks one-mile or less in length. Two ended in top-20s; six were 35th or worse.
37. Corey LaJoie: He has sustained crash damage in four of five races this year, and that has kept LaJoie from being any kind of factor in the Cup series.
38. Timmy Hill: Only 38 cars were entered for the STP 500 as of Tuesday and that will actually improve the racing on this tight bullring. Hill will be one of the back markers.
For more analysis, go to DanBeaver.com or follow him on Twitter
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