#(this will probably not happen because I am not cracked at this game whatsoever unlike proseka lol...)

[bakenekobyte]

100%...

[makemadej]

So today two of my worlds collided in the best way: Ryan and Shane were guests on one of my favorite podcasts. I was totally blindsided by this since there was no promo for it whatsoever (who knows why, maybe they forgot when the release date was, maybe they’ve been taken captive by skeletons, maybe they’re just terrible at promoting themselves), and it killed me that I couldn't listen to the whole thing until after work. It's over two hours long and podcasts aren't everyone's cup of tea, so I'm capturing the ghoul boy highlights here for anyone who wants them.

Wine and Crime is a weekly podcast hosted by three ladies who are feminist as fuck and pair a different crime with a different wine each episode. This time, the theme was Pandora's Box crimes, aka "crimes that were only supposed to be minimal but ended up being a shitshow." Inevitably, they paired it with boxed wine.

Enter the ghoul boys.

Ryan, on Franzia: I do enjoy slappin' a bag Shane: I've seen Ryan slap some bags in my day. [...] Ryan: Shane has to tell me to stop slapping the bag sometimes Ryan: I used to do this thing in college called Tour de Franzia. It was like a drinking game, but it was an obstacle course, and at every checkpoint you had to slap the bag. [beat] I made great decisions in college.

Ryan: You say "nice stream" to the sound of liquid being poured into something, it maybe is not the best...it may not communicate well over audio. Shane: Hey, nice stream Ryan: Nice stream. That's what I say every time I go up to a urinal. To any guy. Tap him on the shoulder. Shane: Men in public bathrooms, we all compliment each other's streams. Ryan: Yeah. It's best if you whisper it. At close proximity. I get really close so he can smell the Popeye's on my breath that I just got at the terminal and I whisper "nice stream."

Ryan: We're drinking the 14% Four Lokos seltzer over here [borderline unintelligible banter about playing Edward Four Lokos hands]

Ryan, on the description of himself on a "which BFU guy are you" quiz: That sounds like the description of a golden retriever.

Shane: I know there's one quiz that was popular where the description [of me] was entirely wrong.

Ryan, increasingly high pitched: A fan sent you all these goat parts?

[What is your favorite wine varietal?] Ryan: Hmmmmmm... [Do you know what a varietal is?] Shane, with gusto: No!

Ryan: Wine to me is just wine at this point. I'm not that far on my wine journey. I was a beer guy that's transitioning over into wine. Shane: Well, it sounds like you're not doing a very good job. Ryan: You know what, I said I am LEARNING, Shane. So why don't you get off your high horse and tell them what kind of wine you like? Shane: I don't even know! Ryan: Mr. "I don't know what a wine varietal is" Shane: Yeah. But I don't call myself a wine guy Ryan: I never said I was a wine guy! I said I was-- Shane: You were like, "Oh, have you see that Netflix documentary, Sommelier?" Ryan: First off, I didn't say it like Elmo from Sesame Street, but I also said I was transitioning!

Shane: I like some red wines and some white wines Ryan, imitating him: I like the stuff with the alcohol in it...and sometimes it has bubbles and makes my tummy feel good and uhhhh, yeah Shane: Yeah, I don't really know... Ryan: Sick answer Shane: There's a kind my girlfriend always gets that's really good but I don't...I can't remember the name of it Ryan: That's a long name. That's actually a good name for a wine! The Kind My Girlfriend Gets, ever had it? They sell it at Trader Joe's. Shane: I'm not even trying to do like a...*weird cowboy voice* "I'm a man, so I don't drink wine. Only my girlfriend does." I like wine, I've just...I've never been good at wine. And wine makes me real sleepy, so I almost never have it. Ryan: That's why I don't drink red wine...and it also makes me look like I've been chewing on mud clots or something.

[What is one "unsolved" case that you're pretty sure you've solved?] Ryan: What was that one where I was like, I think I've pretty much solved this one? The Black Dahlia I'm pretty sure was George Hodel. I'm almost positive of it. Shane: Wasn't there like a missing child one that we thought we had sorta gotten? Bobby Dunbar Ryan: Bobby Dunbar. I think we had solved that one. Uh... Shane: We can never concretely say that we've solved it. Ryan: No, we can't legally, but I'm pretty sure D.B. Cooper's bones are an ornament in some pine tree out there in the Pacific Northwest [...] Shane: The case is pretty closed on Amelia Earhart, too. Ryan: I don't think so. Shane: Yeah, she got eaten by crabs. Ryan: I think it's closed in your mind. That's what you'd like to have happened. Shane: That's what happened. Ryan: Giant, man-eating crabs. It's amazing that those exist. I saw one dragging a coconut. Not hard to imagine that coconut being a head. Shane: Yeah. Of an aviatrix. Ryan: Of an aviatrix, yeah. The most famous aviatrix of all time!

Ryan: Fun fact, shaking my bones is what I call dancing.

Shane: I'll say that Ryan is 100% that bitch. Ryan: I'd say 0% actually. Shane: See, that's what makes you that bitch. Ryan, cracking up: What about you, Shane? Shane: Mm. 45.

Ryan: I don't know if people would like me walking into a room trumpeting "I'm 100% that bitch!" every time I walk in a room. I think there's nuance to it. You can't always be 100% that bitch. [...] Or if I'm trying to make an omelet and I can't make the flip...not 100% that bitch in that moment. I'll tell you, it's the bane of my existence Shane: You can't make an omelet? Ryan: It's impossible! Shane: It's not. Ryan: It's really hard! I don't think I have the proper pan. Shane: It sounds like you don't. Do you have a good spatula? Ryan: Maybe, I dunno... Shane: WHAT DO YOU MEAN MAYBE? DO YOU HAVE A GOOD SPATULA OR NOT? It’s a yes or no question! Ryan: I think it might be, I don't know! I have no idea where it came from, I got it from my mom. Maybe she bought it from Sur la Table? Shane: I was gonna say, go to *French accent* Sur la Table, get a little free espresso... [degenerates into arguing about French pronunciation]

Shane on working at Abercrombie: I was in the stock room, they didn't let me up front. Not my beat. [...] Me and my friends...would just hang out in the back and listen to music and eat cookie dough. And they'd be like "we need you to fold this box of girly shirts" and we'd be like "ah, okay!" and then we'd just take the box and be like "this is too many shirts." And we'd just throw it...this was the area like a loft area where you couldn't see anything. We'd just throw the boxes so we wouldn't have to fold the shirts. They're probably still there. Ryan: Sounds like you were a great employee.

Shane: I started as Buzzfeed as an intern. Ryan had started a month or two before me. So we came up in the same intern class together.

Ryan: I did grip and electric work for two years, which is basically like lifting heavy gear essentially on set and I realized I didn't want to do that for ten years before I even had the chance to sniff a camera.

Ryan: I filmed powerpoints for doctors...I did feel like a prisoner at times when I was there, listening to a doctor from USC's Keck medical school talk about irritable bowel syndrome for two straight hours...I was a couple days away from joining the union...That was concurrent with the irritable bowel syndrome filmings.

Ryan: I chose the internship at Buzzfeed not knowing what it was, met the Shaniac over here, and then, um...we went through that program, which was kind of like the Hunger Games. We saw all of our fellow interns die. [...] We worked our way up, I eventually made Unsolved.I made unsolved actually with a different host, Brent Bennett. He left the show because he didn't like...I believe the quote was "I don't like these stories anymore." Shane: *dies laughing* Ryan: And I turned to my right and was like, "hey Shane, wanna do this instead?" and he was like "sure" and that's that. And from then on I guess we never looked back.

[Shane, how do you feel about being the second choice?] Shane: I'm fine with it. Really, there was so little fanfare to him asking me. Ryan: No ceremony at all. Shane: 'Cause we were just making stuff left and right at that point and series were not really an established thing at Buzzfeed [...] Even when Ryan had asked me "hey, would you like to be in this?" uh...I was like "yeah, lemme..." Ryan says I checked my calendar. Ryan: Yeah, Shane looked over at his google calendar, saw that next week was open, and was like "yeah, looks like I've got some time" and I was like "sweet, lock it in" and he was like "cool." And then we both put our headphones back on 'cause we sat next to each other at a desk and worked on other things and that was that.

[What is some of the silliest feedback you've gotten about your show?] Ryan: Luckily the fan base is pretty nice. There's plenty of fun, positive comments out there, however, this is one that tickled me the most. A guy somehow found my personal email address and emailed me to let me know. He's like "hey man, love the videos, excellent content to get stoned to. Keep it up, cheers!" I don't know who this man was.

Shane: I do have some hope that Bigfoot is real. A little unlikely. The other one I always root for is Champ in Lake Champlain. Ryan: I don't know why you have such an obsession with Champ. [...] Shane: Champ...there seems to be something fishy going on there. There's something going on in that lake. Ryan: Good pun Shane: Not even. There's something going on there and I've seen that lake and I've looked out at that lake and I've felt something inside me just looking out at it. Ryan: You sure it wasn't just IBS? Shane: We've established that you're the one with IBS Ryan: I'm not the one with IBS! Shane: You joined the union! Ryan: You were the one who almost pooed your pants on an investigation Shane: That's a different story! Ryan: You ate two hot dogs that were served at the baggage claim in Philadelphia Shane: We. Were. Hungry.

Ryan on Dyatlov Pass: I'm gonna double down here. I think it was a yeti. Or, not a yeti. I think it was an abdominal snowman. Shane: Abominable. 

[borderline unintelligible banter about an incredibly ripped yeti doing crunches]

Shane: I'm very content with the mysteries of the universe never being uncovered. It's fine. Ryan: It's frustrating. Shane: You're gonna go to the grave not knowing so many things, so you might as well just give up on them. Ryan: Such a nihilistic way to look at everything.

Shane: If you know anyone who's traveling and they're your enemy, you just call the FBI and say "oh, they're up to no good up there." Ryan: If Shane was flying somewhere I could just say "yeah, I think he's dangerous. I know him. He's the guy who couldn't fit a hat on his big head."

[interlude where they decide to name an anonymous suspect Shane Ryanson]

Shane: It would be funny if this was like the highest escalation of a prank war between two friends Ryan: That'd be a hilarious prank, getting someone thrown into federal prison. Super funny. Gotcha!

Shane: If you're the kind of person who is likely to call in a threat to the FBI solely as a way to get a dig in at your friend, that probably stays with you for life. That's pretty hard-coded into who you are. Ryan: That's true. Especially when you look like an out of work Batman villain [...] If this dude walked into a 7-11, I would drop my Slurpee immediately and run to my car. He's a scary man. I'm out. Slurpee's on the floor.

Shane: I'll tell you this in defense of dolphins, they do have funny little smiles.

Shane, on breaking into Sea World: That seems like an extremely Australian thing to do.

Shane, googling fairy penguins: Yes, it's a wonderful little penguin! He's so small! Ryan: This is great, this is like a dark gritty reboot of Mr. Popper's Penguins.

Shane: Just...to meet someone, get along so well that you each drink a half a liter of vodka together and then go swimming with dolphins and blast some sharks with a fire extinguisher Ryan: ...and then decide, let's top off the night by bringing home a fuzzy little friend Shane: I mean, by that point you've got a winning streak going. You're like, "yeah, we didn't get eaten by sharks! we did swim with the dolphins! Of course we'll steal a penguin!”

Ryan: I bet the penguin actually helped the hangover, to be fair. If I was hungover, I normally just see my blinds shuttered in my room, my shoes are somewhere in the house, but if I found a penguin I'd be like "okay, maybe this isn't so bad." Shane: A rehabilitation penguin. He just hopes on your bed in the morning. Ryan: Just starts smacking me in the face with his little fins. It's great, I love it.

Shane: I think she shouldn't have killed her husband. Have a little faith in his worm farm.

[coolxnxblue]

de rules:

1. Themes might very with this blog. It’ll typically be SFW, but there will likely be dark themes, violence and swearing.

Things will be tagged! I’ll try my best, anyways. If you want something in particular tagged, please let me know through ask / anon / im. The format I use for tagging is, for example, tw: swearing.

I don’t have any triggers but I do ask you tag all of your NSFW content.

That said, I won’t do anything NSFW - gore is okay, though.

I’m of age.

2. I’m private, meaning I only really roleplay with people I follow. This is so things don’t get too overwhelming and for me and to cement who I want to interact with. I generally follow most people if our writing clicks, though.

If I don’t follow you and you’d like me to check out your blog, lurk in my notifs. I’ll definitely see you and make note to check you out. Same with promos, or you can just rb them to a sideblog / send an ask with its url. I can’t gurantee I’ll follow, but I’ll certainly check it out!

If it’s a crossover, I have to know the fandom and be at least a little bit confident with it. This is so I’m able to work with you, our thread and have muse for it. You’re free to ask if I know of a fandom or not! I’ll have a list at some point.

I follow the tag #coolxnxblue. If there’s anything you want me to see, like dash commentary, just tag that and x-kit will alert me of your post! I may respond to ic stuff ic stuff if I’m feeling it. 

In that sense, I’m chill with dash shenanigans with most folk, not just mutuals!

Absolutely no godmodding. It ain’t fun, fam. If you’re not sure what this term means, do look it up. This includes powerplaying, metagaming, and other things of that nature. This applies especially in fights if they happen (I’m chance-based and hope that you are too).

I can be picky with OCs. But rest assured, if you’ve followed me/interacted with my promo, I’ll always give your pages a read.

Please don’t be offended if I don’t want to interact with you (and please don’t try to guilt me into doing so!).

As for following back, I usually take a week tops to do so - but if you’ve hit up my promo, I go through that eventually.

I DON’T CARE ABOUT AESTHETICS. I just think they’re pretty. If you don’t use formatting or anything like that, or heck - even wanna’ just do iconless rp - I have no problem with it whatsoever! It’s you, your writing and your muse I care about!

3. Please don’t rush me for starters or responses.

PLEASE understand that I have blogs galore and my muse tends to fluctuate; this can mean I’m everywhere at once and can end up neglecting a blog or two. It’s nothing personal; you know how muses are! Additionally, life happens to be a thing.

Please note the mun deals with anxiety and depression, and has part time jobs which are honestly tiring - this might affect how frequently she roleplays.

Chances are, I’ve probably has seen that bit of interactivity and just haven’t gotten around to responding yet.

My roleplaying style being para/multi-para, I may take a while to respond. I hoard drafts like a dragon - it’s really just the motivation to write and ship those out.

I hoard asks, but sometimes can’t find muse or interest for all of them. If it’s been a month or two, generally assume I’m not interested / can’t find muse for it. You’re free to send another though!

I answer asks from anyone - personals, rp blogs and anons. I’ll answer non-mutual asks occaisonally but I won’t be making threads out of them

4. Shippings? Heck yeah, I ship lots with my blue son! Just make sure they’re of similar age pls.

If I don’t happen to be interested, don’t force anything on my character.

I do not ship incestuous ships. Do NOT follow/interact if you do.

The ship has to have chemistry; I’m generally shipping trash, but if they don’t click, they don’t click, sorry.

This is a multi-ship blog, meaning there will be more than one ship without them conflicting with eachother.

If you want to ship and I already have a ship of your choosing going with a duplicate, please don’t hesitate to hmu! My ships aren’t exclusive and each character/relationship portrayal is unique to me!

Relationships are eternal until you deem otherwise. If you’re not interested in a ship anymore, just let me know!

Sonic X Tails won’t be happening on this blog, sorry.

5. Whilst I am of age, I’m not aiming for sexual content on this blog (and will not be dealing with fetishes). That stuff makes me uncomfortable, and I typically don’t recommend pulling it with my character if you’re interacting with me. Nonetheless, should it arise, I will tag it appropriately as nsfw //.

6. About reblogs…

I am not a meme source, and reblogs clog up my activity. Please reblog any ask / starter memes you find on this blog from their SOURCE. The exception to this rule is if there is no source; go ahead.

I don’t feel comfortable with Personals reblogging my IC or OOC posts, so please don’t do that. If I put something in the fandom tags for whatever reason (bar promos), you’re free to, though.

This goes for my art too unless it has the tag ok to rb, but otherwise only the person I drew it for can reblog it. If you wanna’ reblog something, I DO put it on my art blog eventually!

A few times is fine, as it happens, but repeatedly breaking these rules will result in me soft blocking you.

I try to participate in reblog karma as much as I can, but always reblog from the source/a meme source.

If a post or ask is for you, you’re free to reblog it to save it though - but only if you’re an rp blog!

7. I’m a para / multi-para blog, novella if I’m adventurous and have time. Whilst I may roleplay crack threads with shorter responses, this does not apply to all threads I write. This means:

I write my replies as detailed as I can muster, and length can range from 1 paragraph to 6.

Short responses (such as one-liners) in more serious threads where I’ve written a decent deal can instantly kill my muse for that thread.

Whilst I’d prefer for partners to at least somewhat match my length, it’s entirely up to you - just try your best and make sure you give me enough to work with. ♡

If my muse happen to go nuts out of nowhere - like, overboard - don’t stress too much about matching him.

8. Threads! You can yeet asks, memes, and even starters at me if I’ve liked a call! I’ll obviously have my own you can like.

You’re free to like starter calls even if we’re not mutuals; I can check out your blog that way. I still only write starters for mutuals though.

I know pretty much most if not all Sonic media, bar Fleetway which I haven’t gotten around to reading yet. Since that’s unfamiliar territory, I’m unlikely to tread in it yet.

Starter memes are the BEST way to interact me because they just yeet a prompt at my face and really help me write starters. If you see me reblog one, send one!

If you want a certain verse, lemme’ know! Otherwise, I’ll either resort to game verse or whatever continuity your muse applies to (i.e, Sally (archie), Starline (idw), and so forth).

If you want to turn an ask into a thread, go ahead!

In that sense, I don’t recommend writing starters for me unless we’ve discussed something. I don’t like to leave anyone hanging.

Please don’t assume things about my muse. If you’re uncertain about things, ASK.

IMs are open to mutuals, if you want to do any in-depth plotting. I also have Discord if that’s more convenient for you!

9. Guidelines on mains and relationships:

If we’re mutuals and we interact a lot, you’re welcome to ask me if I’d like to be your main!

Please don’t be offended if I deny, though; I typically want to pick those I trust to be my mains as well as people I can comfortably write with.

Not limited to them! I roleplay with duplicates galore so don’t be afraid to hit me up if you want to interact!

Pre-established relationships are a-okay in my book; if you have an idea for a relationship between our muses we can work towards, hit me up! I reblog those pre-established relationship memes every so often too. Romantic relationships link back to the shipping guidelines.

Also, friendship/family/rivalry relationships are EXTREMELY valid to me - so don’t feel scared about asking for them!

10. If you have any issues, please let me know and hopefully we can resolve it!

Mun is actually super nice, so don’t be afraid to hit her up!

I am absolutely terrible with IMs and Discord. I either respond quickly or days later, depends on my mood. Social anxiety tends to interfere with this (and more recently exhaustion from work) - but honestly, if you’ve sent something, I’ve likely read it and just haven’t gotten around to it yet! It’s nothing personal; trust me!

Please leave me out of drama; I’m here to have a good time, as is everyone else, and it pains me to see people arguing.

This is a little different with callouts - if I see anything on dash pertaining to any problematic users, I will take it into consideration and rb it if I believe them to be harmful.

11. To retierate, I tend to follow those that:

Write para and whom I feel my muse would click with.

Seem chill? Tone can really intimidate me honestly.

Have rules and about pages! Knowing the boudaries of my rp partners is super important as well as their lovely muses! Sometimes rules are enough, though, if you’re going to write the about eventually.

Tag their nsfw.

Don’t have massive icons - ie, have rp icons that take up an entire text post like 500x500 or something. I don’t want to clog the dash and it’s tiring to resize them.

...also, if I follow your hub blog (provided it doesn’t double as a personal), it generally means I’m cool with any blogs that are attached to it.

12. On threads…

If you’re not interested in a thread anymore, and would like to drop it, please let me know! I’d feel terrible if we’re both not having fun with it or if partners feel overwhelmed with the amount of threads we have.

Honestly, unless I let you know, our threads have no expiry date - so no need to worry about me dropping them without telling you. I can just be quite slow sometimes.

13. Mun does not equal muse! Anything my muse might say does not reflect on how I think unless I explicitly say so.

14. Know that if I follow you, I WANT to interact with you.

I literally couldn’t care less about follower counts. I care about YOU guys and our interactions.

15. Rules may be subject to change.

Please like this post if you’ve read the rules! You don’t have to, but it’s of personal reassurance to me if you have.

[t0ngue-tech]

All Yours | Six

“’Y/n?”’

‘Hm?’ You answered with a low hum whilst tying your shoelace. There was a crack in Yoongi’s voice when he said your name so it concerned you.

You stood back up on your feet and turned to lock eyes with him. ‘Yeah?’

He opened his mouth to answered, but licked his lips instead. ‘I—nevermind. It’s—I kind of answered my own question in my head.’

There was a nervous chuckle that left his lips and you tried your hardest to not think too much of it.”

↠angsty fluff (lots of dialogue in this one yall) universityAU ↞

word count: 5.8k

↠series: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | ↞

A/N: WHEEEEEEEW POSTING JUST BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS LMAO. this is a late thanksgiving gift huhu. i am so thankful for all of you who appreciate my fics because i know im not the best writer out there, but you guise help build my confidence huhu. this is totes long overdue and i really hope you guise enjoy this chapter. (i apologize if there are any errors, ya girl is exhausted so i might fix it up later lol) i love you guise so much ♡

⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓

Morning.

How were you able to fall asleep perfectly fine until the morning?

When you awoke, Yoongi was sleeping peacefully with the front of his body facing towards the wall. This made it easy for you to roll out of bed without bothering him.

You stirred your coffee and yawned so deeply you felt as if your jaw was going to dislocate. Going to your classes was the last thing you wanted to do. Your body craved sleep and your eyes were still sore from crying last night. But going to class meant avoiding any awkward conversations with Yoongi, so you opted to go.

And yet, this also meant you were going to see Seung Ho, the guy Seolhyun cheated on Yoongi with. This was a class that you couldn’t skip because you desperately needed more attendance points to bump your grade up a little higher.

You tanked entire cup of coffee, ignoring how hot it was, and sighed. Maybe you were overthinking things. Seung Ho didn’t have any business with you so why would he confront you with anything regarding the situation in the first place. But he did know how close you were with Yoongi and if he put two and two together, Seung Ho would know that Yoongi talked to you about it.

It was only 7:30 in the morning and you were already ready to choke yourself with your hair, so you drank whatever was left of your coffee and gathered your clothes to shower.

The shower was able to destress you a bit, but as soon as you stepped out, everything came rushing back. You just needed to survive the day and then you could open up another bottle of wine to have before you go to sleep.

When you entered your room, Yoongi was curled up on his side, facing the door and scrolling through his phone with squinted eyes. He noticed you walk in and instantly sat up.

“Good morning.” He rasped, still half asleep.

“Good morning. Nice hair.” You smiled at the way some of his blond locks stuck out and curled upward.

Yoongi shook his head, running his fingers through his hair. “What time are you leaving?”

You stared at your phone and pondered for a few seconds. “Hm, maybe around 9:15? I need to go over some of my corrections  on my literature paper with my professor before I print it out.”

“Did you eat breakfast?”

“I’m about to.” You combed your fingers through your damp hair, shaking it a bit. “Care to join me? Waffles are on the menu.”

↠↞

The atmosphere felt different as you two stood in your small kitchen. Yoongi was preparing himself a cup of coffee while you were waiting for the last pair of chocolate chip waffles to pop out of your toaster. It was comfortable, yet heavy, but normal at the same time.

Yoongi moved naturally inside of your kitchen: going through your fridge to grab the bottle of syrup and even making you a cup of coffee, knowing you probably already had a cup as soon as you got up.

He propped himself on the sofa and carefully placed both of the coffee mugs beside each other. Your attention was so fixated on Yoongi that when the waffles popped out of the toaster, it scared the living hell out of you and made you yelp.

“Goddamnit.” You muttered, quickly pulling out the waffles.

“I don’t think there’s ever going to be a day where you don’t scared of something popping out of the toaster.” Yoongi laughed and sipped on his coffee.

“Is than an insult, Min Yoongi?” You trotted over to the living room with two plates of equally divided waffles on each.

“Yes it was, y/n.” He answered sarcastically and stole one of the plates from your hand.

To your surprise, you both had a lovely breakfast together. Yoongi vividly described the dream he had which dealt with freakishly large goldfish bowls and lagoons of chocolate that surrounded bowls. You jokingly advised him to never indulge in hot pockets before sleeping unless he wants more dreams like that one.

“Yeah, but at least the goldfish weren’t mutants.” Yoongi said entering your kitchen with the dishes.

“Still, nobody wants to see fish that big staring at you.” You commented. Why were you two still discussing his dream? You weren’t even sure yourself. But it was nice to know that you could talk to him as if nothing happened.

You stared at your closet for a few seconds, forgetting that you flipped your work schedule to work tomorrow instead of today—if you knew all of this would’ve happened, maybe you would’ve kept your original schedule.

“Are you staying here?” You asked Yoongi as he flopped back down on your bed.

“I might step out for little. I’m not too sure yet.” Yoongi replied, watching you stuff your pencil cases with a few more pieces of stationery.

“Should I leave you my key or are you going to go back to your dorm?”

“Actually—“ Yoongi took a second to think. “I’ll probably just stay cooped up in here.”

“Whatever sweetens your coffee, Yoongs. Just try not to eat all of my snacks.”

You stood in front of your mirror and ruffled your hair to give it an illusion of voluminous locks and behind you, you could see Yoongi sitting cross legged on your bed. He was picking at his nails, something he usually did whenever he was in deep thought. There were so many things that could be swarming inside of his head at that moment and you decided to not wreck your brain over it.

After staring at yourself in the mirror for what seemed to be ten years, you decided to switch out your coat for a hooded jacket. Since it was pouring last night, you wanted to be prepared just in case there was going to be an unexpected downpour.

You let out a deep sigh and slipped an arm through one of your backpack straps. “I should get going.”

Yoongi hopped off the bed to walk you to your door. It wasn’t necessary but you didn’t protest. He closely followed behind you and gave you room to sit on your floor to put on a pair of shoes.

“Y/n?”

“Hm?” You answered with a low hum whilst tying your shoelace. There was a crack in Yoongi’s voice when he said your name so it concerned you.

You stood back up on your feet and turned to lock eyes with him. “Yeah?”

He opened his mouth to answered, but licked his lips instead. “I—nevermind. It’s—I kind of answered my own question in my head.”

There was a nervous chuckle that left his lips and you tried your hardest to not think too much of it.

“Oh—kay. Then, I’m off.” You smiled at him and walked out, locking the door behind you.

↠↞

Y/n, you need to relax. If Seung Ho even notices that you’re acting a certain way, he’ll probably call you out on it.

It’s only been ten minutes since class started and you already felt your hands sweating. Seung Ho had already greeted you with his usual hey beautiful once he sat down and you ignored him as you always did.

The class was mostly quiet besides the students who asked the professor for help on some math problems. You sat at your computer, clicking away and solving the problems in your notebook in front of you. Once in a while, you would glance at Seung Ho to see if he was as focused you were—focused was a loose term considering how much bricks you were shitting.

What was Yoongi doing at your dorm? What was there to do there? Unlike their dorm, you didn’t have a gaming system and you took your laptop with you because you needed it for your meeting this morning. All Yoongi had was your television, his phone, and your snacks.

God, I hope he doesn’t eat all of my snacks.

You made a mental note to bring dinner for the both of you before heading back home.

50 minutes flew by at the speed of light. Everyone was stuffing their bags with their binders and signing out of the math website while the professor was reminding everyone about the objective due on Sunday. All you needed to do was rush out of the classroom before Seung Ho could say anything else to you; not even his see you next week, babe. You shuddered at the thought. It never really fully bothered you whenever he talked to you like that because he never made any advances towards you at all. But now that you knew what he did with Seolhyun, it disgusted you.

Like a god sent act of mercy, you were able to leave the classroom before Seung Ho did. Unfortunately, the devil works just as fast because you were able to walk about five feet from the doors and when you properly swung your bag over your shoulder, your pencil case flew out as well as a few of your pens.

“Fuck, fuck, fucking mushrooms on my pizza.” The choice of words that tumbled out of your mouth confused yourself and you creased your eyebrows together. You tried to gather your pens with haste and right when you were going to grab the last pen that almost strayed into the grass, Seung Ho stepped in to pick it up for you.

“Hi, y/n.” He handed you the pen and you grasped it in between your shaky fingers.

“Hey..” You breathed.

“I’m going to safely assume that Yoongi told you what happened.”

You almost argued with him by saying something like why the fuck did you get in bed with her in the first damn place but this wasn’t your fight. So you just nodded your head and avoided any eye contact whatsoever.

“Seolhyun wants to talk to him.”

“Yeah well, she can ask him herself.” Ouch, y/n. Too sassy?

Seung Ho adjusted his hat and pulled the sleeves of his flannel down to his wrists. “He isn’t answering any of her calls or text messages.”

“Can you blame him?” The sass spewed out naturally and with everyone walking by, you really didn’t want to have this conversation at that moment. “I need to get to my next class, Seung Ho-”

“Just tell him that Seolhyun wants to talk to him tomorrow. She just wants to have a chance to explain herself. Yoongi deserves an explanation.” You visibly exhaled a deep breath and looked at the time on your phone. “Please, y/n.”

You folded your arms and rolled your eyes. “Fine.” What am I? Their messenger?

Seung Ho gave you a weak smile and put his hands together as a thank you. He brushed passed you and you stood there knowing damn well Yoongi is going to stubborn and not talk to Seolhyun. If you were in his shoes, you wouldn’t want to talk to her either.

But you did kiss him, making Yoongi walk out of your dorm with the look of regret on his face.

You frowned and looked back at your phone. Great, you dragged your mood even further through the mud and you had three minutes to get across campus to your next class.

↠↞

It was a long day—a long school day at least. Lectures seemed a lot longer than usual and the breaks between your classes were supposed to relieve you, but it only made you feel more tired. You needed to pick yourself up a little, so you headed towards the university coffee shop where you found Hani flirting with Seokjin over the bar counter.

“My dumpling!” Hani completely abandoned Seokjin and rushed towards you. “How are you? You didn’t open up my text so I was worried.”

“I’m alright, Hani. Sorry, I’ve just been out of my head since this morning.” You sat down on the empty stool beside hers and Seokjin handed you a vanilla latte.

“I hope you don’t mind, I kind of bribed Hani to tell me some details because I couldn’t wait until your shift tomorrow.”

“Yeah, it’s fine. Can you heat up two paninis? The spinach and the chicken one? Just take the payment out of my paycheck, I’m too lazy to grab my wallet.”

Seokjin did just that, leaving you and Hani to talk.

“So, is Yoongi still at your dorm?”

You nodded your head whilst taking a sip out of your latte. You also texted him during your last class just to make sure he was still there.

“Other stuff happened last night—no, no! Nothing like that!” You laughed at the way Hani’s eyes turned into moons. “I—I really don’t know if I have the right to tell you, but I love you and I trust you.” She nodded her head and anticipated your next few words. “Seolhyun cheated on Yoongi last night.”

Seokjin came back at the perfect time. The dropped the bag of food onto the counter with his mouth agape. Hani mirrored his expression and blinked a few times.

“She cheated-cheated?!” Seokjin exclaimed.

“Yeah,” You sighed. “She was having sex with Seung Ho when Yoongi walked into her room.”

“Yoongi saw what hap—oh my god.” Hani raised her fingers to her lips and remained stunned. You were just as shocked when Yoongi told you, so you understood when they didn’t have much to stay.

“I should get back to my dorm.” You reached over the counter and looped the bag handles through your fingers. “Thanks for these, Seokjin. I’ll update you guys if anything else happens.”

Hani hopped off her seat and opened her arms for you to enter. Her hug was warm and it was something you really needed. You wanted to cry and tell her how stupid you felt for doing what you did last night, but this wasn’t about you. So, you just smiled at the Hani and Seokjin, promising again to update them.

↠↞

The hallway was toasty warm compared to the cold air outside. You were so grateful to finally be back at your dorm where you could throw on pajamas and have your spinach panini—and have casual talk with Yoongi too. Speaking of Yoongi, you didn’t even have a chance to tell him that you bought a small dinner for the both of you.

Oh well, food is food.

You unlocked your door and found both Yoongi and Jungkook sitting in your living room. You first made eye contact with Yoongi and then with Jungkook who had sauce stained on his chin.

“Uh, hi?” You chuckled and slid your shoes off.

“Hey, y/n! Welcome back!” Jungkook lifted his styrofoam bowl up for you to see. “Beef broccoli?”

“Thanks, but I have mines.” You raised the bag that was clutched in between your fingers.

Yoongi beckoned you to join them on the sofa and Jungkook scooted over to make room for you to sit in between them.

“If I knew you were here, I would’ve gotten you a panini too.” You waved the chicken panini in front of Jungkook before passing it on to Yoongi. It seemed like he ate already judging by the second styrofoam bowl that was on your coffee table, but he still took it from you and unwrapped the paper.

“I thought Yoongi told you.” The both of you flickered your attention towards Yoongi who paused mid-bite.

“Sorry.” He mumbled after fully sinking his teeth into the toasted bread. “I literally have no idea where my phone went after I texted Jungkook to come over.”

“He left his phone in our fridge once.” Jungkook mentioned, scarfing down the rest of his food.

“There was one time where he left his phone in between the couch cushions at the lounge. I’m surprised it was there the next morning.” You laughed and Yoongi gave you the are you done yet look.

“Oh! He once—“

“Jungkook, don’t you have a study group to go to?” Yoongi quickly cut him off and flung the panini wrapper square in the face of Jungkook.

Jungkook took a swig from his water bottle and looked down at his phone for the time. Within milliseconds, his eyes grew wide and almost choked on his beverage.

Jungkook pushed himself off your sofa and messily gathered his things. He stuffed whatever trash was lying around into the plastic bag he got with his food.

“I’ll toss these out outside, y/n.” Jungkook shook the plastic bag around his wrist. He waddled over towards your front door where all of the footwear was neatly placed and stepped into his slides. “Bye y/n! See you later, Yoongi!”

He shuffled out of your dorm accidentally slamming your door because of all of the things he was carrying. You heard the muffled sound of Jungkook’s voice saying sorry! behind the door.

“He’s seriously the cutest. I understand why you love him so much.” You chuckled and scooted over to sit where Jungkook was sitting.

“Ehh, I don’t love him that much.”

You laughed at the look Yoongi gave you because you could already tell he was lying.

The room fell silent and you weren’t sure if it was the perfect time to mention Seolhyun’s name. There was no mention of her name whatsoever since this last night, so bringing her up too out of the blue didn’t seem right. Within the silence, Yoongi looked as if an idea had struck him and he fished in between the couch cushions and like magic, his phone was uncovered.

“Well, shit.” He breathed and you snorted with laughter.

“You didn’t even feel any sort of vibration or hear your text message tone at all?” You were at the brink of tears at this point and abdominal muscles were already forming over your stomach.

“No, I��” Yoongi continuously clicked on the home button as well as the lock button. “I guess my phone died?”

The confused look on his face made you laugh even more.

Defeated by your amusement to his confusion, he shook his head and retreated into your room to grab a phone charger.

“Now that I think about it, I did invite Jungkook over around two and I think my phone percentage was around fifteen percent?” Jungkook sat on the floor so he could keep his phone close as he charged it.

“And for four hours, you lost your phone?” You got comfortable and stretched your legs out onto your sofa.

“Yeah and what took you so long anyway? I thought your last class finished at three today.”

“My lab partner and I wanted to perfect our hypothesis and experiment—actually, I texted you this.” You chucked in disbelief and showcased your conversation with Yoongi.

[12:46] You: i might fall asleep in this library

[1:03] Yoongz: I already took two naps. One on your bed and another on your sofa

[1:35] You: i’m going to die in my criminology class

[3:22] You: hey, i’m staying back to fix up my lab. idk when i’m going to be back but don’t eat all of my food pls

Yoongi stared blankly at your phone and once his phone booted up, it vibrated on your floor like crazy. The sound startled you and you sat up to take a quick look at his phone.

There were a few twitter and email notifications, but the thing that stood out the most was Seolhyun’s name on his phone that he already changed to her first and last name. Yoongi remained quiet as he stared at the multiple text messages he received from Seolhyun. There were repeated messages of please call me back and talk to me. Yoongi shifted his body and you quickly looked away from his phone.

“Are you?” You cleared your throat. “Gonna call her back, that is.”

He didn’t turn to face you, instead, he took a deep breath mumbled, “I don’t know.”

On an impulse, your fingers reached up to gently graze a few strands of Yoongi’s hair. You continued to move up and massage his scalp with your fingertips. “Don’t you want to hear an explanation?”

“And listen to her rant about how I’ve been such a bad boyfriend to the point where she had to cheat on me?” There was clear anger in Yoongi’s words and you couldn’t blame him.

“Yoongi-”

“I don’t want to hear anything that she has to say, y/n.” Yoongi twisted his body around and with the lightest grip you had on the back of head, your hand was now resting on his cheek when he turned.

Your eyes felt like they were stinging with tears and you didn’t even know why you felt like crying. Maybe because it was the pain that Yoongi held in his eyes and see how fast he was breathing. Yoongi didn’t deserve this, and Seung Ho was right, he deserved an explanation.

“Seung Ho talked to me after class—Yoongi please just—just listen,” Yoongi rolled his eyes and you cupped his face with both hands. “I know you’re assuming that you’re going to hear her mention about you being a bad boyfriend and hey, maybe you won’t. But Seung Ho even said that you deserve and explanation and frankly, I agree.”

Yoongi focused his attention to somewhere else on the floor and you squished his cheeks and made him look at you. “This is closure. I know you’re done, but you should also get everything you want off your chest too because she needs to know how much you tried and how much it hurt to be the only one trying.”

The stern look in his eyes grew softer and it seemed like he was finally listening to you. Yoongi rested one of his hands on your knee and drummed his fingers against the fabric of your jeans.

“Fine.” He sighed and you softly smiled at him. “But only on one condition—you have to come with me.”

Your jaw dropped a little and your pace of your blinking grew rapid. “I—I don’t think that’s a good idea, Yoongi. Especially since, for some reason, you told her that you kissed me.”

“She’s not going to do anything to you. I won’t let her.” Yoongi’s voice sounded certain. “I just don’t want to be left alone with her.”

He grazed your knee and you tried not to flinch. You really didn’t want to be around Seolhyun, especially because she knows that the two of you kissed. But if it was the price to pay to let Yoongi have his closure, then so be it.

“O-Okay..” You said quietly. “I’ll go.”

“Thank you.” Yoongi’s voice was just as quiet as yours and his lips twitched upward into a small smile.

Honestly, if Yoongi continued to look at you the way he was at the moment, you would lose all restraint and kiss him again. Yoongi’s eyes held every star in the universe and you didn’t understand what made Seolhyun want to cheat on someone like him.

The sound of your text message tone made you two break eye contact; you were disappointed yet relieved.

“Everything okay?” Yoongi asked whilst standing up.

“Yeah, Jungkook just asked me if you found your phone yet.” You chuckled a little and tapped away at your keyboard.

“I guess I should text him.” Yoongi bent down to retrieve his phone. “By the way, sorry if I invited him over like it was my own place. I just asked him to bring me my bag with some clothes and my charger.”

“It’s no problem.” You answered. “You’re not heading back to your dorm?”

Yoongi set his phone back down and stuck his hands into his pockets. “U-Uh, no. Not tonight, if that’s okay with you?”

“Yeah, it’s fine.” You breathed. “I”m uh, I’m gonna take a shower. I probably smell like chemicals.”

↠↞

That hot shower hit the spot. Even if the shower was the perfect place to stand in deep thought, you didn’t want to think about anything that had to deal with Seolhyun or Yoongi staying over again. You did promise yourself to not lose anymore self control because now was not the time to think about kissing him again or even cuddling with him. You caught yourself blushing as you dried your hair.

“Get yourself together, y/n. Keep your shit together.” You huffed quietly and unplugged your hair dryer.

When you walked into your room, Yoongi was changed into a gray tracksuit and was sitting cross legged on your bed. You spotted his backpack sitting on your desk chair which reminded you that your bag was still in your living room.

“You’re going to sleep already?” Yoongi called out.

“No, I have to make a few revisions on my paper.” You returned shortly, basically dragging your bag on the floor.

“Oh. Uh, well, if you’re done early, do you want to watch something on Netflix?” He averted his eyes away from you and found the loose thread on your blanket more interesting.

You chuckled at his shyness and took a seat across from him with your laptop tucked underneath your arm. “Sure.”

While you clacked away at your keyboard, Yoongi was absorbed in a game on his phone. He plugged his charger into the usb port on the side of your laptop, so he was lying down with his body at a 90 degree angle against your wall. It felt like nothing ever happened between you two because his presence was comforting.

After a few more strokes on your keyboard, you cracked your knuckles in front of you and sighed. “Done?” Yoongi asked whilst sitting up.

“Yeah, for the most part. I just hope this is the last revision I need to do.” You set your already heated laptop on your desk to properly cool. About 40 minutes had passed since you started revising and your back felt like it needed to be snapped in half like a glow stick.

“Let’s watch Coraline. It’s been a while.” Yoongi suggested and you didn’t complain, it was your favorite movie.

He took the liberty to take your laptop and set it up near the footside of your bed. You shared Yoongi’s Netflix account along with Jungkook, Jin, and Seolhyun; he was probably going to change his password soon.

The “continue watching” section was an array of genres ranging from anime to serial killer documentaries to food related videos. But Coraline always remained somewhere on that list. Yoongi didn’t know you rewatched the movie last week, but you didn’t mind watching it again and you especially didn’t mind watching it with him.

You were in the kitchen pouring some chips into a bowl and grabbing two water bottles out of your refrigerator when you heard the start up music of Coraline.

“I was so close to getting a yellow raincoat because of this movie.” You tossed a water bottle to Yoongi who already made himself comfortable against your head board.

“What stopped you?”

“My will power.” You snorted at the contradiction of your words and placed your head pillow onto your lap to sit next to him.

It was now farther into the movie, the chips were completely finished after two refills and the empty bottles were sitting on your desk. You were still sitting up with your legs stretched out to avoid your feet falling asleep. On the other hand, Yoongi’s entire body was already stretched out onto the mattress with his head sunk deep into the pillow.

“You know the first time I saw this movie, I really wasn’t expecting it to be this creepy.” You chuckled at the memory of you being a bit more terrified than your liking; it literally gave you a few sleepless nights after the first time watching it.

You waited for Yoongi to tease you or make some sort of sarcastic remark and it struck you as odd when you didn’t hear anything coming from him.

“I swear if you’re—” You turned your head to him. “Asleep.”

Yoongi had his head tilted towards your body and his hands were resting flat on top of his stomach. It almost felt like a crime to wake him up because he looked peaceful whilst sleeping, so opted to move as quiet and nimble as possible. You started to reach forward to pause the movie and with the subtle movement you made on the bed was enough to awake him.

“Finished already?” He tried to play it off and stretched his arms up and placed them behind his head.

“You’re not slick, Min Yoongi.” You scoffed and continued to clean up the mess around you two. “You literally took two naps today and you still managed to sleep while watching Coraline.”

“Are you surprised?” He shuffled his body to curl up on his left side to watch you clean up.

That answer was coming from the same boy who slept for almost a full day, had dinner, and then fell back asleep after letting himself digest for about an hour. All in all, I guess you weren’t as surprised as you thought.

Without exchanging anymore words, you put everything away into its respectful places and turned off your light with only the dim light from outside peeking through your curtains. Yoongi was still lying on his side with one hand tucked in between his knees and the other underneath his cheek. While your eyes adjusted to the dimness of the room, you could still see the whites of Yoongi’s eyes. You continuously told yourself to stay cool and to not show any signs of anxiety about lying down next to him. Everything between the two of you remained the same since this morning so just because you were going to sleep beside him doesn’t mean that it was time for the energy to change.

“Y/n?” Yoongi’s voice cut through your thoughts.

“Hm?” You hummed and sat down on your space of the bed.

“Can I—Can I ask you something?” As Yoongi stated the question, he sat up himself to sit cross legged towards you.

Your heart thumped against your chest cavity at the way he said can i ask you something? “Sure.”

The sigh he pushed out was audible and scooted closer to you. His eyes were darted elsewhere and the silence was weighing heavy around you.

“Can…” He started. “Can I have another kiss?”

Yoongi’s question knocked the wind out of your lungs and made your heart stop beating for a second. In what world would Yoongi be asking for a kiss because this had to be a dream. What made things worse was that you were actually giving it some thought and you were just telling yourself to get your shit together.

Now was not the time to be thinking about how soft his lips were or how lovely the dainty features on his face looked like. You especially didn’t want to think about how much you really wanted to kiss him.

Let’s be real; kissing him was a stupid and painful decision that you made on your own, but was it a crime to want to kiss him again? It had to be.

“Why..?” Your question came out as a tiny squeak and you were hoping you didn’t sound offensive or bothered by the idea.

“I just..” Yoongi rubbed the back of his neck. “I like the way your lips feel.”

You wanted to laugh at the way he started, but he spoke without a mere chuckle so everything else that followed deemed serious.

“I also thought about why you would’ve kissed me and I think I figured it out.” You swallowed the lump in your throat. “There’s also a lot I want to talk to you about. It’s stuff that’s been bothering me, but we can talk about all of that another time.” He sighed and made heavy eye contact with you. “I just really want to kiss you.”

This had to all be a dream; you would’ve slapped yourself to check, but now was not the time.

It didn’t feel right to kiss him. It didn’t feel right to want to hold his hand as you laid down next to him because he just went through an ordeal. Yoongi needed to rest, even if he had a good amount of rest today. He needed time to gather himself especially since he agreed to meet with Seolhyun to have closure. All you had to do was politely tell him that now was not the right time for this. But as sane as you were most of the time, you were selfish about some things sometimes.

And now was one of those times.

“O-Okay..” You breathed.

Even in your dimmed room, you saw Yoongi’s eyes light up at your answer and it almost made your lips twitch into a smile.

“I can kiss you?” He asked again.

“Yeah.” You reassured. “You can.”

Compared to yesterday, the entire world around you started to slow down. Yoongi shifted his weight onto one hand to keep him at bay while he reached up to run his fingers against your cheek before cupping it.

Your breath hitched in your throat as Yoongi crept in to close the gap in between you two. At first you were hesitant in closing your eyes, but just before Yoongi fully reached the flesh of your lips, his flickered to yours. The gaze he gave you was calming and instead of it helping you relax, it only made your more nervous. You could practically hear the sound of your heartbeat ringing through your eyes; probably loud enough for Yoongi to hear.

It felt like hours before you watched Yoongi’s eyelids flutter close and yours followed in suit.

The initial touch of his lips sent a jolt of electricity throughout your body and as his lips molded carefully into yours, you sighed into the kiss. You could almost feel your body grow numb, but was revived back to life as Yoongi’s lips moved shyly against your own.

Your hands were balled into fists on your lap until you gained feeling back in your hands. You blindly reached for his hand and once you found it, he eagerly accepted the invitation to interlock fingers with you.

After what seemed to be forever, the bliss of kissing Yoongi came to an end once he pulled back an inch away from your face. You opened your eyes to find him staring back at you and he chuckled. The sound was music to your ears because along with the short sound of his laughter, he smiled. He still had his hand resting on your cheek and before you could say anything or even exchange your own laughter, he gently tugged at your face to plant another kiss on your lips.

Excitement bubbled inside of your chest all over again and you couldn’t even stop yourself from cracking a smile as you kissed. You liked Yoongi for so long and so damn much that feeling this happy had to be a crime of some sort. And if it was, you were more than ready to accept whatever sentence was given.

♡ rae

[ebaeschnbliah]

EXPLOSIVE  .......  IT'S  MORE  ME

________________________________________________________________

A metaphorical reading of  'A Scandal in Belgravia'

A while ago I wrote about the scene  'Oh, have you had sex' in TFP where Eurus deduces - based on the tune Sherlock plays on the violin -  that he probably had sex because she had sex to the same music.  The following is the attempt to interpret this event from Sherlock's POV in ASIB. It was great fun to do this. That's why the initially planned singele scene became finally  the whole episode.   :)

(Source of PromoPic)

For a better understanding of the metaphorical storyline I changed the names of the  main characters:

Brain (Sherlock)

Government or the 'most powerful family in the country' or 'the ruling family' or ' the queen'  (Mycroft) -  the concept by which the majority of Sherlock's brain is ruled. Established by Mycroft. Based entirely on logic and reason. Has to be kept appart from any emotions.

Love (Mrs.Hudson) - the type of love the ancient greek called STORGE  It can be found between family members, friends, pets and owners, companions or colleagues.

Romance (John) - romantic or passionate love, called EROS by the ancient greek. Personified by the gods Eros and Anteros (whose image accompanies the title of the Pilot-Episode of Sherlock BBC)

Sex (Irene) - Sherlock's sexuality. According to himself he knew 'nothing whatsoever' about her existance before ASIB. Mycroft as well as Irene share this opinion.

Darkness (Jim) - Sherlock's dark side  The susceptibility for boredom. The desire for clever and/or dangerous distractions. The inclination for self-destruction. The death wish.

A matter has come to light of an extremely delicate and potentially criminal nature. It's a matter of the highest security, and therefore of trust.

It turns out that a member of the 'ruling family' misbehaves. The member in question engages in such a scandalous activity as ... sex. There are even documents to confirm this intolerable misbehaviour. Immediately Brain is summoned by Government to put an end to this scandal. Brain loaths to follow that command.

And because it is always such a pleasure to annoy Government, Brain shows up completely naked, wrapped only in a bedsheet. What a fitting misbehaviour for this special case.  

Government: 'This is about Sex. What do you know about Sex?'

Brain: 'Nothing whatsoever. But Sex doesn't alarm me.'

Apparently Sex has no intention to blackmail Government. And only when it becomes clear that the whole case seems to be a sort of powerplay between Sex and 'the most powerful family in the country', things get interesting for Brain. Brain always loves a good game. This could be great fun. And so Brain puts on the disduise of a clergyman. The 'self-proclaimed virgin' visits Sex to retrieve the compromising documents (delete the memory of sex?). But Sex is well prepared and already waiting for Brain ... in the battle dress.

Sex is highly amused and immediately 'attacks' Brain's 'virginity'.

Much too eager to lay hands on the annoying documents, to ensure a quick and successfull operation, Government secretly sends in more agents. Agents who threaten to kill Romance and Sex if Brain doesn't unlock the place where the information is kept. That turns out to be a big mistake, because now Brain sides with Sex and together with Romance they put the 'agents' out of action. Then, according to the given order Brain takes the documents to transfer them back to Government. Sex doesn't agree. Sex is not willing to give up the information (delete the memory?). And Brain underestimates Sex grossly.

Sex beats Brain

Brain gets completely high on neurochemicals (not unlike a drug) and is 'out of order' for the rest of the day ... and the night too ... Romance takes care of Brain. 

You’ll be fine in the morning. Just sleep. ... Of course I’ll be fine. I am fine. I’m absolutely fine.

Government realizes now that putting Brain in touch with Sex to eliminate her threat had been a great mistake. But Sex has gone 'undercover' by now. And that's the moment when Government puts 'Bond Air' in action. Brain listens closely. Brain senses that Sex might be in possession of more things than just 'photographs'  (memories/thoughts about sex). Much more! Something really big might be coming. Annoyingly Government gives Brain an unmistakable order:

Sex is no longer any concern of yours. From now on you will stay out of this. ... Oh, will I? .... Yes Brain, you will!

Then it's Christmas and Brain get's a present from a person who is a mirror for Romance. The gift is carefully wrapped in red paper, with a nice bow.

Dearest Brain. Love Mirror-Romance.   XXX

Wait! What? Love? Kisses? No, no, no .... Poor Brain just dealt extensively with Sex and now Mirror-Romance turns up with .... love???  That's clearly too much!

'I'm sorry. Forgive me.'

Orgasmic sound. Another gift also wrapped in red with a bow appears on the mantlepiece. It's from Sex. Wow! Both Mirror-Romance and Sex have a present for Brain ... with the color matching the shade of the lipsticks (Sadly the content of Mirror-Romance's gift is never revealed) 

Sex sends Brain all the carefully treasured informations Government wants to have so badly. So Sex must be dead! Look Government ... there is no Sex anymore. Head bashed in. Completely 'deaded'. Now stop annoying me and leave me alone! All of you! Merry Christmas!

But I wonder if there's something wrong with me ...

Of course, Sex being dead was a lie. But now that Government is soothed, Brain has time for a another little experiment. What might happen if Sex meets Romance in the private and intimate environment of a disused power coplex? Just an empty shell now ... with no power in the electric wiring anymore ... therefore completely safe. (and oh ... the beautiful water there!)

How might Romance react finding out that Sex is in fact not dead but very much alive instead? And what might be the result of Sex deducing Romance? Could be interesting.

Sex, do you know that Brain writes sad music. You must tell Brain you’re alive or I'll come after you 

I can’t, Romance. Brain will come after me

Fine, then I’ll tell Brain. But just for the record: we are not a couple and I'm not gay! 

Yes, you are!  And I am!

What??? Romance and Brain are already a couple? Sex is gay? Looks like rather unexpected things can happen when Brain lets Sex do the deduction thing. No wonder Brain looks a bit like struck by an electric shock. Seems this 'disused power complex' wasn't completely dead after all. It's not uncommon that electric wiring - carelessly abandoned for a long time - is prone to ..... short-circuits. :)))

It's also no wonder that Goverment's agents are already waiting for Brain when he comes home/to himslef again. And now the agents are after that scandalous information more eager than ever before. They even threaten and torture Love. A very bad idea because now Brain really loses his temper and throws the chief-agent unceremoniously out of the window and onto the bins .... multiple times.  

Then Brain gets hungry and eats something nice out of Love's fridge.

It turns out that Love has kept Brain's secret information safely hidden from the Government's agents.  

Love leave Baker Street? Brain would fall!

Later Romance tells Brain that Sex must have more information than just photograhps (memories) of sex on that device. Brain agrees. But Brain is not able to access any information. The case is locked.

'I AM ....... LOCKED'

Time for another experiment then ... to unlock the case. This time Brain and Sex try working together - reluctantly and cautiously - not really trusting each other - to solve the problem. Sex provides the information and Brain tries to make sense of it. Seems to work. But suddenly it's not about scandalous photographs anymore.

It's all about an aeroplane now. How confusing. And alarming too?

Hasn't this happened before? When was it? It's on the tip of my tongue ....

While Brain is still evaluating data and thinking about Government and the mystery of 'Bond Air',  the now revealed information is secretly passed on from Sex to Darkness and then to Government. Government is clearly shocked and horrified learning about  this unwanted developemant. 

Romance has left the building. Sex tries to seduce Brain but Brain isn't hungry. Love interrupts because Government summons Brain again. And Brain thinks he knows exactly what is going to happen. This turns out to be a very wrong assumption though. A plane full of dead people that will never fly nor explode = the appearing of a distant memory that can't be supressed/destroyed/controlled anymore? Because a carefully laid plan has been leaked?

Government is full of sarcasm and disdain. He accuses Brain for being 'naive' and 'obvious'.

Months and years of planning .... everything lost ..... you were played by textbook .... Sex gave you a puzzle and watched you dance .... Sex might have you on a leash now .... then you'll be a prisoner of your own meat ..... is this what you want?  Or are you clever enough to avoid it?

Brain is rendered speechless and looks deeply affected by the unexpected turn of events. 'A matter of highest security and trust' ... Government had told Brain at the beginning of the case. And Brain has betrayed that trust utterly. Now Sex tries to take over Government by means of blackmail.

Brain should have known how stupid and dangerous it is to get involved in sentiment. He should have known that caring is not an advantage. But he willfully ignored everything he had been taught by Government since childhood. Just behold the consequences now! The chemistry of love and sex - so simple and yet so distructive.

Thank you for the final proof, Sex.

And of course, lurking behind Sex - like a spider in it's web - is Darkness. 'It's coming to get you!' Almost - but 'no, you wont!'. This has been a very,very close call ... but no. Brain knows now how to 'crack the case'. He himself is the code. How stupid! That's exactly the reason why mind and heart have to be kept appart at all costs.

This is your heart ... and you should never let it rule your head.

Brain unlocks the information - and without taking one look at it - hands it all over to Government who is very pleased and relieved. Brain apologizes for the inconvenience he has caused and leaves Sex in the power of Government.

If you are kind, lock Sex up. If not, let Sex go. Sex wont survive long.

Government tells Romance that Sex has gone abroad ... never to return again ... no, wait .... better tell Romance that Sex is dead. That's more .... final.

And Brain keeps the now empty shell of the device where the secret data had been kept by Sex. But two different kinds of information were on it:

thoughts and memories of sex and

the 'Plane-Memory'  - still deeply hidden and heavily guarded

Government doesn't lock Sex away. Government lets Sex go. Into the desert. Why? Because Brain told Goverment that Sex wont survive long on her own and without protection? Government is not very kind then.

Turns out that Brain is right. Sex gets indeed into mortal danger rather quickly. But then - surprisingly - in the very last moment Brain is there to save Sex from being beheaded. Sex stays alive and Brain keeps the knowledge of it deep in one of the many vaults of his Mind Palace. Government must never suspect that Sex is still alive.

Heavy rain poors down the windows of 221b Baker Street

________________________________________________________________

Irene texting Sherlock in TLD and John calling Sherlock a 'bloody moron' for not calling her back, is in that case a very good sign, I think.

Just text her. Phone her. Do something while there’s still a chance.

Could this be a foreshadowing of John's face when he finally realizes the truth about Sherlock: 'Oh, you are the .... one ... who liked the ....?  Ohhh!'

I leave you to your own deductions.   Thanks @callie-ariane  for the scripts.​ 

Mai, 2017

@gosherlocked @isitandwonder @loveismyrevolution @sagestreet @monikakrasnorada @tjlcisthenewsexy @sarahthecoat @sianbrooke @my-strange-old-book-collector

[jeffrmayhugh]

Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

I’m bullish me into my saddle, my son and my son. Let me let me see. Let me go to my side. Let me. Yeah. April Fools. How clever. How creative. Jesus Christ, man. Sorry about that. But you know, what about having three cups of coffee in the morning? Again, a little bit of bad news from the doctor. Well, why not have a little bit of a laugh on April Fool’s? Anyway, I want to wish everyone well on this nice Tuesday or Thursday. No, it’s. Oh, it’s Wednesday, actually. It’s Wednesday. Hey, happy. Have a happy 1/0 life. Wish you a happy Wednesday from actually a kind of bright and bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland, albeit cold as fuck. It will be snowing here relatively soon is what I hear as well. So plenty to talk about on that as we do have plenty to talk about on price action as well. The monthly clothes and also I believe a couple other times higher time frames causes as well. Really set in a long term bias here. So we have much to discuss their fault from yesit’s analysis and really focus on the higher term time frame stay. So with all of that said, I would like to wish you the best, the best and perhaps the happiest because I’ve been doing that for a while. Sorry, my bad. It is more important do that than really anything else, because why the fuck not, man? It probably helps. Or at least it doesn’t hurt anyways. More importantly, let’s go check about the Crown training application which can be found at Abdol Crown traini dot net. It’s free. Go take advantage of it. It is when I’m sent for you. So anyways. Well, also for me as well. I actually use scorches. We made it. In fact, I found that’s the best way to just go about life. Make stuff that you’re actually going to use and then other people might find it valuable as well. Anyways, once again, putting the big focus on the open interest for the global derivatives, we see open interest going up about $34 40 since yes, since we last spoke yesterday for about five hundred seventy five hundred eighty to six hundred, 620 million. As it is right now. And also seen that the bitcoin dominates. I go now more or less flat. Not really saying anything there. The crypto fear and Greed Index also more or less flat as well, albeit pretty damn low in the in the low teens right now. But then that the big focus is here on the open interests. We’re gonna Tientsin to the analysis once again. And my god man, this has really been a big missing piece for I feel like myself looking at open interest. But now that we finally been able to track this over time, we have a number and we’re gonna be having a chart coming soon. I’ve been getting a lot of questions on when the chart comes. Oh there. Which is another million added. What could it be? Oh, it’s all sales coming in right through here. Beautiful tie, but more importantly, we’re working on it. It’s gonna be in the next update. But due to, well, the whole world situation, everything. Some of the updates have been pushed back a little bit just because well, it’s you know, there’s a whole global pandemic going on right now. So with regards to that open interest going up, price action. Well, let’s go see. Let’s go see what happened over here. Definitely went up. Right. Right. Right. Fuck, God damn it, man. Price action going down again. We see open interest going up, price action going down, volume having a little bit of a spike spike here. But we’re still caught in the context of the greater formations. So if what we need low term time frame is actually go back up here to the daily. And what do we know? The daily is still being held below the yellow 21 Ispent for average. Now, I just want to do a very small aside right here. This is incredibly similar to what we’re seeing on interest marks right here from a daily closing bases. We see a death cross. We see the 20 month extension on average so far rejecting price action. And this is consistent with all major all major markets. We see Japan riding over here. Same thing happened. Continuation. Oh, could that mean something? We see Germany doing about the same thing yesterday, still being rejected. But, well, I wouldn’t necessarily call this rejection, but still being held below below the 21. And with Japan kind of leading the way right now, I do believe that Bitcoin is a likely setting up for a relatively similar move. Probably put them back down below the six thousand dollar region. I see a lot of very bullish people in this market. I see a lot of very bearish people as well. So it is interesting because I do feel like our reads on sentiment in this community are probably not very consistent with the general sentiment of the market. But I do try to I do try to do my rounds of crypto Twitter and crypto YouTube just kind of kept catch up and does seem to me that most people are still kind of looking at this as likely to go back up to 8000 anyways. More importantly than that, we need to focus on the tangible things, not the intangible like bullshit that well, everyone’s book. It’s like who’s everyone in? And if and if everyone’s bullish and you’re in, you’re in, you’re the only bearish one. Then what does that even mean? I mean, I don’t know. Managers. It seems like an ego thing to me anyways, but it is it is insane nonetheless. Anyways, looking at this right here, I still stick with with with what I’ve been saying for the last few days or the last like week or so, that as long as you’re below the 21, I’ve been to an average special on an open and closed basis, but even on just a closing basis as well. I am I’m not bullish here and there’s no April Fool’s about this. I am looking at this as more or less a problem, but most likely come back down. Looking at the way that the monthy closed Miss Day Night, I do believe that we closed well below the 20 next month on average, as that’s all the way at Sony 300 ish region and hold up. Jesus Christ, man. Looks like there’s some weird things going on like Peter right over there. But more importantly, we do see that we have actually crashed or not crash, but a crack down below the 20 minutes Benjamin was on a confirmed month closing basis. So let’s. I once spend a lot of time here on the monthly, as is what say so first and foremost, as long as we are below the monthy 21 expensive inhabitants, yellow moon damage right here from a long term basis, I am not bullish at all whatsoever. In fact, the better term would be bearish. I’m looking for more downside. You can see that in Bitcoin’s history, especially go to be Aleksa next. The longest running exchange or their longest running price action is an exchange, obviously, but a trend that we’ve broken below the 20 minutes to an average. Well, that’s been deathand a K for bitcoin back over here in 2014 2015. More recently in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. And now we have it yet again in twenty. So this is something that I use in traditional markets when I was a market maker, authorized trade on the floor of AKA which I would judge a stock if it was generally bullish or gently bearish over the long term. If it’s above the 21 gently bullish blow, generally bearish works were works better with more mature assets. But now that Bitcoin’s, you know, a little bit over 10 years old, I think that it has just enough time on it for this to work. And more importantly, we have a series of efficacious signals given frontin from it. So my general my general view for the long term is I am not bullish at all whatsoever on bitcoin price action. As long as we are below that region, especially on a monthly closing basis, doesn’t mean that we can’t come back up and test it. In fact, I think that that is that that that could very easily happen now, too. But I would probably be looking at that as likely an opportunity for a counter-trend position or sorry kind of position to that move. More importantly, I think that we can now say that it would be very, very, very, very, very unlikely for Bitcoin market to be back up to 8000 or above 8000 in this, at least in the six month price action. And when we look at so much Mazur’s, which actually it’s look at the new ones right here, because down one has an updated just yet. We do see monthy stokes nosediving and more importantly, gaining momentum to the downside ratio right over here to getting reject from the bullsh controls on. Don’t like that. It’s check out monthly RSI. This one also problematic, but we didn’t actually take as big of a nosedive as I would expected here. So more importantly with the month, the RSI, well, it’s generally not a strong read or anything like that. We are still below the expansion. That exponential is working its way down to the neutral zone, although still gonna take a few months to get to get there, actually. But more importantly, if we if if we actually do test around the Barasch controls on, once again, my big fear here is that we bounce on this one, two, three, four times the fifth time and and in each subsequent try after that gets weaker and weaker. And the problem with this is, is that while we’re on the fifth time now, if we do actually come back down and test it. So if Bitcoin does break to the break to the south side, let’s call it below 5000. Now, that will likely bring monthly RSI below the bearish controls on. And I do believe that if that were to happen again, we’d very likely spend some time in there like prolonged time. We’ve we’ve had too many warm welcomes and and rejections from that region thus far. That really, really concerns me from a long term perspective. Again, if we do get back down around there. But as you know, as it is right now, it’s not necessarily there. But with the way that all well, with the way that the monthly trend is quite literally down, we literally have a monthly downtrend. We have high, low or high, low, low or high. And well, while we haven’t necessarily made a lower low just yet, I suppose that’s the game that we get to play this month. Are we setting in a higher low or a lower low if we set in a lower low, obviously below 30, 300. We are in for our first monthly are for well, not not a first monthly downturn, but a likely a very long downtrend. And that’s at the point where I’d say Bitcoin probably not can be talking about popping back up to the 5 digits, at least for a few years. So, you know, still there is a little bit of hope and left for the long term. Just don’t want to see a monthly close below our last major low right here at about thirty three hundred thirty five hundred depending upon where you’re kind of measuring it from. But but you know, that gives us the big bad range right here. We’re currently trading about, you know, 2x from that region anyways. Also, the monthly rounds of the accumulation dissipation indicated the net delta indicator. Once again, we are still maintaining this negative slope and the slope of this indicator has accurately gone in pretty much all of the market cycles in Bitcoin’s history. Pretty damn right. So with this remaining negative or is or what I should say, it’s just a downward slope is also, of course not good. But as we’ve seen in the past, you know you know, do we have sharp, sharp turns every once in a while? Yes, we do. But there should be adequate warning before the next major low is put in to put this in perspective. The last time that we had a slope change, will, you know, obviously we got the one to the downside right here in January. But I just want to show that when the slope changes, we typically spend at least one month within that range still and then turn around. So so it needs a slope change. And then next month, continuation boom. There you have a long term reversal. You know, you know, as of recently, what we saw in January 20. But what I really want to focus on here is actually the last major low that we put in in January twenty nineteen at about thirty one hundred ish region right here. So the slope changes from January to February and then it just floats way back upwards and onwards. The reason why that is, is it’s significant here is because again it gives you a little bit of time, you know, while that changes around. And the obvious, you know, obviously the general trend fall is to massively to the upside soon after that. So, you know, even even with a little bit of patience here and not getting in at the exact low at thirty three hundred, but getting in maybe a little bit higher at about thirty nine hundred, this region, which I think is pretty damn reasonable, the hopes not soon after that we do see a move all the way up to about 10000 or more really like 14000 bucks. So I just want to show that, you know, long term this is a slow moving freight train. But once it gets going, you know that, you know, those are the fun times. So could that happen here? Yes, it could happen. Could we you know, could we see a slope change on the next one, perhaps? Yes. But even then, I wouldn’t just jump right in, because as we did say, you know, it’s going to it’s going to likely take some time to reverse itself. Now, we do have a trend line forming here, to be fair. How do you know how? You know, just to touch to make a trend. No, it does not. But if we do see this next touch, actually, it’s actually turned around the slope coming in to what’s the month after April, May, June. Now, May, May. It’s May. I think it’s May, at least, anyway. It doesn’t matter what month it is just the next month after whatever fucking month that we’re in right now. Since this one doesn’t matter either, time is an arbitrary concept. If we do see this turn back around, then that should be a good signal as well. But for right now, and at least for the foreseeable future, I am overall bearish and I have no real reason be bullish on this price action. I understand that people do want to be a bulls out there and more power to you, but for the traders out there. Well, that is a monthly, obviously not the most bullish look. And then we come back down to the two day, which is, you know, which is which I do consider a higher timeframe on bitcoin. And what do we see here? The same sort of death cross that we’ve been looking at for the last the last few ticks. And what, you know, we just got another tick confirmed, I believe, yesterday. Let me just confirm. Yes. Actually, no, sorry, it did. This was a day before. But we will be confirming this next tick tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. And again, same thing here as well. We can recap rally all the way back up to the 21 X Benjamin average chest around Sony 50ish region. I think that that would be completely fine even. But I’m still bearish as long as we’re below the yellow 20 Max Benjamin average. And more importantly, we have the death cross, which is now starting to get a little bit of divergence away from each other on those two major move, never just right there. So what does that mean, long term? Well, long term, we have a very good relationship between the death cross moving averages and then and then essentially the 2010 expense. We haven’t you could say to a lesser extent the 10 simple, but. Well, we’ll kind of avoid that topic for right now, just for ease of conversation. Anyways, anytime that we’ve got the Death Cross or the Golden Cross and then price action gets on the same side as a 21 as that cross, that’s when we have big bad moves back on over here. We do see that we got the Golden Cross doing this consolidation about 7000 bucks. Bitcoin comes back down, tests 21. Nice, nice buy right there. A couple of times actually. Right here, right here, right here. And then a 2x 2p from seven thousand to fourteen thousand assuming that you bought on that region back in twenty eighteen very somewhere. Very some other Asian ship. Right. And over here as well gets a death cross late in September or late in 2018. Then we slowly but surely get ground down below the yellow. Twenty one expense for average. Now here’s the thing. Now we do get a couple of closes above, but it’s about on an open and closing basis. So you see that there’s no opens and closes above that region. And then once it gets below the twenty one, we are trending down and we are trending down pretty fucking hard all the way from top to bottom, about 52 percent move going all the way back before that. For our next example, or obviously this one is a beautiful one, going back to 2015, going all the way from like 250 bucks to 15 big. A big number, a big number like 20000 prefs. And then 2014, we had another death cross as well. Happy. And over here do play out that trend a little bit because the cross was so far away. It wasn’t really that big of a deal. And I do think that we could have something similar like this pop back up where we do see another another shakeout or another bull trap backup to the 55 or 200. But assuming that, you know, we’re still we’re still remaining below that on a closing basis, I’d expect some like this to kind of curl back on over. And then as soon as we get back down below the 20 when I speak to an average again. Well, well, this looks familiar now doesn’t hey. No, it doesn’t, because I don’t have my drawn two up, maybe about a nice on a closing basis, 55 percent on a week basis. Obviously a lot more than that. But I’m more in certain closing based right now. So, you know, looking at price action right here, you know, could we have another rally backed up to, you know, into the low of seven thousand? I think that’s possible. But there’s a lot of overhead resistance in its way. So I wouldn’t be looking for any sort of a major move into the $8000 region. I do think it’s possible we could have a move to 7000 bucks, but I’d look at that again as an opportunity. And this is not finished by not venture Voser. And of course, you know, when it comes to technical analysis, we are only using statistics in our favor over time. That is that is likely to to to produce a net positive result. But that does mean that every time is gonna work out. But I do like. The setup’s here and it’s good enough for me to put on risk if I do get that opportunity. Also looking at 2 a.m., much more serious we see to day. Stokes So I need to curl around a little bit. They start to get a little bit tired here as they approach the edge of the bears controls on which typically you are going to see some countertrend pressure at meshe you get rid of this right here. It’s not relevant to what we’re talking about now. And then we also have some well, actually we know we don’t have any hidden embellished evidence here or should I say continuation Everton’s. We certainly do, however, have it on the daily all the way back up to its eight thousand. No idea. So that’s gonna be in the charts as long as you know, as long as we’re below essentially like a what is this like eighty one hundred. Notes. It’s, it’s actually about seventy nine fifty ish regions. So on a daily plosive basis that’s always gonna be a consideration there. Not only that, we do see daily Stoke’s Curlin back down rejection, the bullet control zone and Gameau much to the downside. Not good. Not good at all. Also, we do see daily RSI reject from getting out the Barash controls on thusfar. Although this could this this this is probably the biggest hoping I’m right here. We do actually have an inverted head and shoulders on daily RSI and I put a lot more weight on formations in RSI than I do on price action, especially when it comes to the inverted head and should the head and shoulders variety. See? Yeah. You know, if we did break back above the neutral zone, above the 50 marker right here, I would look for this to play out. But until that happens, it still pressure down sooner rather than later. Again, that does still tie in to the higher term time frame buys. Remember that this can take a long time to play out. So, you know, if if we did play that out, I’d look for that move. Like, I don’t know. Seventy three hundred ish region, we’ll call it. And then I’d look for a quick rejection most likely as well. And then for all the higher term time frames to start to take on over again. Let’s go check out the twelve hour with a twelve hour two and twelve hour. Stoke’s actually did point north and did cross up on the last tick. However, here’s the thing. I think that this is likely to turn into a fake out. The reason why is because if we go over here to see CMBS, we see something completely different. And the CNE stokes in the CMB indicators in general have just been significantly more accurate than spot price action. And we got plenty of room here, plenty of room to the downside. And if we look at CMA charts right here, there’s some great symmetry here with coming back up, filling the gap. Couple are about a day and a half ago and thus far rejected below all major moving averages, even on a 12 hour. And, of course, on a daily as well as it stands. So if we. So so here’s how I can kind of break down a little bit. If we do take out the 30th of March as high, which was I think Monday or whatever day, it doesn’t matter, 30th March. This guy right here, about 66, 60. If we do take that out to the upside, I would look for an extension probably into those low seven thousand dollar numbers. Yes. Technically, we do have resistance right around 68 hundred ish region. So theoretically, I’d rather wait for like a, you know, a two hour or four hour deal to close above that region and then target to move towards seventy two to seventy three hundred each region. But it’s not really until we even get back above that hump. It even becomes, you know, in my immediate short term interpretation, I guess as to where that I’m going for anyways. While we are here on num-, on Sammies, we do CCMA. RSI is actually is a couple degrees more bearish than what we see on price on on spot price action. Significant hit embarrassed evidence here all the way back up to the 9th of March when again Bitcoin was around eight thousand bucks. And this chart again looks set, looks actually some of the reads more bearish than spot price action. And I do believe that Siamese are a lot more important. So again, short term price action. This can ebb and flow. Of course, we can get a nice we could get we could easily get a move up to seventy two to seventy under this region. But I I I I would look at that as an opportunity again and again. It’s not finished by some. I’m not found reviser, but I am just sharing my my exact thoughts on these situations as they come about for our looks like we’re kind of breaking down, rolling over once again for our looks like we’re probably popping back down at six thousand ish region low six thousand. And and I would kind of hold on to that idea as long as we are below sixty five fifty ish regions. So maybe now’s the time to get onto the lower term time frames. Let’s go back to let’s go back a bit Mexico. Mexico is kind of tipping over as well. What could this be. Momentum losing to the downside. Oh and is this the same trouble that we had plotted against already have it in there? Is this the same trend line that we have plotted out yesterday, providing the same resistance from the same last couple highs, ninetieth March 25th or 24th, March right here. And once again, on the 30th of March, I think it might just be. And I do think that this is likely going to end up back down in this. Bluebox Right here, some Bitcoin’s short Senate stint above the Bluebox Right and over here faded rather quickly. I think that this was that this cell right here was a front runner. This BLUEBOX And likely coming back down to the six thousand dollar mark, maybe been a little bit below this. Bluebox Right here. That’s where things get interesting once again. So let’s now start to start to break down the lower term time frames. Now there’s there’s a couple ways of doing this. I’m going to do this in the more conservative way because I think it’s just it’s appropriate in this region, even though I do think even though I do think you could probably. You could get aggressive traders who are going to be rewarded most likely. I didn’t say that. I didn’t say that. But Sabbar Hape, if we do take out either to last. Even the. Even taken out the last for hour low to the downside at 6 to 50, or especially for close even a two hour dollar below 60 to 50 ish region, the lower end of this. Bluebox And this is a more concerted way of doing it. I would target has moved down down around 50 950 ish region. I would look for another bounce of this guy. But remember, that is the lower bound that is that is actually gonna be below the lower bound of this rising channel support that we’ve been playing off of ever since our low riding over here on the 12th of March, which, by the way, doesn’t look right on a on a 4 hour. But we’ll look proper on a 2 hour right here. And for all the multiples of that siete, you know, if you know, if we do come back down, obviously to about 60, 150, we have another short term time frame bounce. Yes. Maybe I I don’t have a strong opinion on that. But I do think my strong opinions I’ll just be a short term time frame bounce as long as long as you remain below above 6, RSI below 60, 350. You know, I’d still I’d still say that that’s pressure down. And we’re likely to break this rising trend line right here as we come down to the next major blue bought or not even Major Bluebox, but like a medium time from relevant Bluebox again in the 59, we’ll just call it fifty nine hundred this region if, if and when we do break this one. I would look for a nice shouter in a price action all the way back down to fifty five hundred. Just reading. That’s going to be the weekly tour and it’s simple moving average, which probably does bounce it again as as indicated by this nice blue box. And it’s only because of the blue box at a bounce is not because of any other reason. No, of course not. This is this is not hocus pocus bullshit. It’s, um. It’s it’s while it’s. It’s just a nice area that generally people are gonna be betting on because of the nature of the tune. It’s simple on a weekly a lot of lotto, you know, a lot of the higher term time frame traders are just gonna have their balls now get set to buy it. But seeing as we haven’t haven’t necessarily broken this trend line just yet, initiated the measure moved from this rising channel, I would proverbially put it around where it could break if it does happen today. And that would still be pointing us down towards a little bit higher than before, but about 40 to 50 ish region on new lows. That would be interesting to me, though, and I do think that there’d be bounces along the way, perhaps universe it vs. along the way. But I’d be looking at this area right here, 55, I’d look at this area right here, 51, and I’d look at this area right here at 48, 14:00. And then and then assuming that those that that all those bounce temps fail, I would look for a full on return all the way back down here to 40 to 50. Why is that relevant? Well, because if we were to come all the way back down there, we likely would be creating bullish evidence on the daily by that point as the daily RSI got. So damn, I’m actually didn’t get mean. It got it got pretty low, to be fair, but it didn’t get into single digits, which very I don’t even think we’ve even seen or may. Maybe we have like a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Yeah, we did actually over here. This was November 2008. One of the most intense moves to the downside that we’ve seen in this baby anyways. So as it stands, you know, this right here to me is like your classic fuckin vertical move in a bear market usually going to be a usually gonna be a short squeeze. And I think that that’s what we’re seeing right here. The question to me, you know, D. The question that I’m deliberating on right now is do we get it? Do we get another move up to 70, 300, this region in tests there? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t. A strong opinion on that. I’ll leave a strong opinion if we break sixty eight hundred the upside, then we probably will get it. But I still look at it, you know, adds it as an opportunity. This is just this is like fucking picture perfect actually. Volume tailing off. We saw open interest go down the whole way as bitcoin hit that area from like 1.5 billion with a B to a little bit over 600 million now. And as price actually moves down from yesterday to today and all the moves down that we’ve seen, first thing that open interest go up. So that is just showing us that bears are where were were close their shorts, which likely caused this this rise right here. So a little bit of a short squeeze on top of that for the overleveraged late traders, late to the trade traders. And now we know as bears put back on their positions, once again, they are they are in full control and they are running things. And I fear that this is going to take a long time for the bitcoin holders out there, but doesn’t matter for Hotaling for life, because while it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter anyways, because, like, you’re just gonna hold onto it till death. You’re not gonna. Are you just gonna look at pics on your screen and stroke it? I don’t know. I don’t know. Anyways, I don’t understand that perspective. But if you are that person, if you are that person who is who who is hashtag Hoddle till I die, I’m curious to know why. Why? What’s what’s the purpose of that? If you’re not going to use it. And I sincerely mean that I’m not I’m not trying to be. What’s the word I’m looking for patronising or any or anything? I’m genuinely curious. What’s the allure to that sort of position or is there any sort of or is there any thought process behind it? I’m curious anyways. More importantly, if we do get them move back down to 40 to an honest region, then at that point we likely will be making some bullish evidence on the daily. Why is that significant? Well, because Bitcoin’s never bottomed ever, ever, ever, ever on a major macro market cycle or even a major move without having bullish evidence on, at the very least, a daily dollar timeframe. To put this in perspective, even on this major move right here. Markets like a low, but a major move nonetheless. Multi-thousand move, 4000 or move to be exact. We had pretty massive bullish evidence off the off the six six hundred number right here. We had three drives out here before 3000. Our move bearish divergence on the top right here. It works both ways and three drives a bullish divergence in 2018, 2019 on this. Thirty one hundred low for here. Several examples in twenty eighteen on all these failed rally attempts and we can go all the way back as well. But I would we’ve done this too many fucking times already now for the newer people here. Well that there’s a long term analysis video in it. Sorry. In the long term analysis playlist that you’re more than welcome to TiVo anyways. Okay. All righty. So what else do we want to look at? This video is already been twenty five minutes long. How does that even happen? I don’t know. But let’s go back down to lower term time frames and let’s start to look at probabilities with regards to these ranges. Let’s let’s keep in mind the range is once again. So here today’s a little bit of a different day, right? Because technically speaking, I have this blue box as the next medium time frame actionable point as well as this blue box to the upside, which has remained consistent at sixty eight hundred. I do, however, think that it would be you probably could be could be aggressive if bitcoin were to break sixty one hundred ish region or above the 30th of March is high at about sixty six fifty we’ll call it. So we’ll look at the probabilities of all these for the lower term time frames. But keep in mind that it’s really this guy right here and technically this guy right here that are the big ones. Then on the outside peripheries for the higher term time frames. Seventy three hundred region. And then of course, fifty five hunters can be our next major area to the downside, although. Well, I’d be skeptical of that one, too. Anyways, let’s just look at the probabilities as they are as this dance. And this is on a daily, by the way. This is on a daily. So we do see that the first tend to be Asian is coming in right around 60, 750 to the upside and sixty and fifty nine hundred to the downside. So that pretty much accurately gets those actionable points to begin with. I’m saying sixty eight hundred of the upside. So be a little bit outside the topside range and I’m saying fifty nine hundred. The downsides, I’ll be right on the edge of that precipice. So it’d be about a 16 percent chance of actually do close below the bottom trigger point for today. Now remember that Borton trigger point is a little bit more of a conservative estimate. I do think that you could accurately put that at 60 100 and probably be right anyways, giving you a twenty dollar leg up on that move. So that’s obviously gonna be well within those probabilities. If I had to do some mental math that I imagine it’s like twenty five percent, you know, which is which is which is high which, which is quite high by the same token to the upside it’s gonna be a little bit less than 16. It’s going to be more like less than 14, 13 percent if I had to guess. But we can actually do this exact as it is. So with regards to that, let’s go check him out. What’s. I think I’m on the wrong one, actually. Right now. Yep. Okay. All right. Where where are my panels go? Hey, where are my panels? I just. I must I must have ticked something off because I was just looking at this earlier. Perhaps perhaps this right here. Yeah. Should be right here at least. Yeah. We can do some some single sided targets. All right. So let’s check out this. Let’s check out this. And then where’s my goddamn panel? Where’s my panels? Whereas my panels. Let’s go to the downside I’m going to do. I’m gonna do six thousand. Just kind of like cut those two major areas to the to the middle. And let’s see, where is where the fuck is. Most definitely, sir. Sir, it should be here. I don’t I don’t have this. Mm hmm. It actually shows the probability, right, that that’s kind of cool. OK. I thought I thought that we’d have another pain there, but that’s OK. Yeah. Baldies actually been working on this quite a bit. So it is pretty damn cool to see. Anyways, it would suggest about no, that can’t that can’t be right because I’ll be a 4 percent four-person chancellery. And to the downside, after actually checking with him because for whatever reason we were just speaking before this video and it looks like my probability panel disappeared. Where? Hold on. It should show the it should show the position here. We got negative 40 and 100. Mm hmm. We’ll see what this one is and we’ll just put it right next to it. It’s a negative 10 and one. OK. So maybe if we do like negative 20, get a little bit close, then see if this works. Yeah. There it is. Oh, man. All right. Nice one anyways. OK. There we go. OK. And that makes a lot more sense. 30 if we do use six thousand our level at as kind of a mark to the middle for the downside, 30 percent chance. And this is by dates and clothes for the upside. I would still stick with 68 just because, you know, trend is against it right now. And bias is to the downside. So I’d rather be more conservative even though probably 66 50 does get it. But so let’s see here to the upside 60. Hold on. That can’t be right. Sixty eight. It’s using. Was it using a range? No. It should not be used in range. Yeah. It’s using single side right now. Just says that. OK, cool. That probably actually does not make sense. So I’m going to talk to Bolly again because I think I’m using the wrong inputs here. Should be on on on current time is 1. Okay. Prive little bit of talking to do. But maybe we could use a different R.F.. OK. I will arrive to prompt a wait for this one. But you know, we can still kind of eyeball it anyways just because the tops of the first aviation is coming in at sixty seven fifty. It’s gonna be less than a 60 percent chance, so probably around 13 percent anyways for the upside. So interesting off to kind of talk that one out. Let me just make sure that yeah. That that would not make sense. Or maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers here. No I don’t think so. Well I’ll figure this one out anyways anyways. OK, cool. So with that in mind, I do still think, you know, just just generically looking at that. It does look to me like we probably are angled for the downside here again, from a called probability standpoint and just offs from an underlying market dynamic standpoint, also from a structure standpoint. Also just from I again, I this is a very familiar move that we see quite often in Bear, you know, in these failed bear market rally. It’s just a very vertical move up and then momentum wanes anyways. Is this a good time to go? Let’s actually go check out CMBS right now as well. Here’s if there’s anything other else different on this. We’ll see how the money looks on this one. Obviously, the month looks like absolute dog shit, not the picture of health and fitness there now is it? Let’s go check out a two day to day. Still be held below the 10 simple looks like downwards pressure to me. And we could also use that as an actionable point as well. As long as the two day is below the 10 simple, I would not look for that next. That next shakeout to the upside. The next squeeze. The upside. Now, if we do close above the 10 simple Cixi, it’s basically at sixty five fifty sixty six six hundredths region. Then I would look for a retest of the twenty one. All the way. All the way. Currently it’s at around twenty five point eight, but I would match that about the time that actually does happen should be down around the seventy three candidates region. Now more importantly Death Cross is, is it’s actually technically not confirmed broadened over here just yet, but it is in the works, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the CMC moving averages on this heibel time frame just yet as it’s too new. It’s neat. It needs a couple more years of price action. I mean realistically, we haven’t even had the 200X measurement average here for too long. As you can see, just started in June. Twenty nineteen. But of course GAPPAH Gap boys rejoice because your gap’s going to be filled perhaps. And I’ll le I’ll leave that for the long term analysis fed video for right now. I think that that kind of accurately covers up all that I want to say in the lower term time frames looking at for our right here we have the same sort of trend line as you can imagine as well. I do believe that we’re seeing this aggressively turn down once again. Let’s go check. Ouch. Let’s go check out some of the other market leaders. Just just make sure that the market more or less agrees with itself. Beautiful. Certainly a degree, a degree, a degree more week as we do see this one just kind of floating aimlessly sideways, did not get the same sort of upward move that Bitcoin did. If this one does have another move, the upside, I’ll be looking for a move towards 1:43 in a quarter. But I think I think that they’ll likely still be a major opportunity. Well, much more so is turning down as price action fails to even get out of the neutral zone and is essentially hugging onto the lows. So that’s a. That looks like a Barasch reset to me. Same thing with daily RSI. This is not again. Or do we have an embarrassed evidence here? Just barely. Just barely. Attentively as president, but but just barely. If we take out yesterday’s low, then it will be confirmed, which is 130, spot 6:03. Perhaps press worth putting an alert there. In fact, I will add. Fuck it, I want you. But if that does happen, I’d look for a move back down to like 1:22 region. What about Mrs like win? How she doing as she’s about the same as β all. Maybe a little bit stronger, relatively speaking, but same thing here. Momentum also does turned down daily RSI. Do we have the same sort of potential had embarrassed divergence here? Kind of. Yes. Again, it looks like a bearish reset to me. Not not getting the same sort of strength as Bitcoin did on those last couple moves. The upside, but still hugging the lows. I mean, this is just this. This is what the chart actually looks like. Stop putting on logger minutes yet. You don’t need logarithmic scale anymore. We’ve had enough history in bitcoin. We’ve we’ve had enough history. Bitcoin now where linear scale I think is relevant, especially if you’re looking at any price action from like twenty seventeen to where we are right now. Maybe if you look at it before that prior to 2017, you might want log scale, but. But now now that Bitcoin’s been around for more than 10 years, we can use linear scale and you know, especially as the range kind of consolidates between this 3000 level and about about the ten thousand dollar level on average. OK, what else we want to look at? Let’s go look at spineless you a little more of a deep dive here. So last week I said that espied if Spike closes below the 2 and it’s simple and 200x Benjamin average, then I would not be bullish. I would be overall bearish looking for new lows. I don’t necessarily know when those new lows will come in, but I do believe that we likely will attempt to new lows and I still stick with that and I would be sticking with that, you know. Granted the same criteria as longs for closing weekly doulas, especially the one at Simple at 264 and a half. I do believe that that we’re going to come back down and test tests to 35 at the very least, and probably another small bounce there. And then and then and then we’ll kind of look it up, you know, look at it from there. But as it is right now, you know, pressure down here. Now, if we did close above the 2 an example, I’d look for a move perhaps all the way back up to like 285 region. But this is a very smart move to Bitcoin as well. Just a very vertical move off the lows. I can’t be bullish on this as long as long as even below the daily twenty one here on a closing basis, especially on an open and close basis that we have as we have seen, a couple of fake outs among the general market index indices. Well this one technically an ETF, but you know its tracks sbx. So you you already fucking know anyways. So yep. You know, I do think those one product does come back down to like five and then to 35 probably played another bounce there and then better hope that that one plays out back above 265. Otherwise new lows, maybe new lows. Same thing here as well. We’ve actually never had major lows put in without without bullish evidence. Not not at a daily but actually I believe on a weekly all mage, all all major lows have been have been put on on or actually. No, not all major lows have been put on for a for a what’s called a a weekly weekly bullish Everton’s. But market cycle lows have. Yeah. Going back to 2008 and going back to 2000, both major crashes. We do have phenomenal bullish divergence, at least two drives in some cases, three coming out of those markets. And if we go all the way back to eighty seven, which I don’t think we have enough price action history here for fuck. Yeah. If if only then I’d imagine that we proxy it there too. Not now. It make three times, but unfortunately due to the limitations of trading V we cannot see back that far. More importantly, you know, it’s still kind of holded with that. As long you know, as long as it’s working and we pay close monthly in yesterday as well and we close right below the 55. Just a just a just a dick hair below 55 on heavy volume on increasing volume, nonetheless. And is that is that indicative of capitulation there? Perhaps, yes. Per. You know you know, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit capitulation there, but dip in our 20s, he was back into the bearish control zone of this. That means that we also closed on new lows. No, sorry, we did not close on new lows as well. Okay. This one actually could still have a chance to bottom in the 235 ish region. It’s still a possibility, I suppose, but I’m not necessarily looking forward to it. Monthly’s Stoke’s have found all of their major lows, especially for this run right here at the edge of the bear. At the edge of the bullsh controls on eversince, all that going all the way back to 2008. So I do think that we probly come back down and test that region and put in a major low on it, as we have done right here, as we’ve done right here, as we’ve done right here and as we’ve done right here. All phenomenal buys post 2008. Do we come back down to that trend line again? I think I think yes, likely. And I also think that we’ll probly bounce on that one again. Here’s the counterpoint to that. We’ll just we’ll just pretend that that didn’t happen. I don’t wanna see a fucking global financial meltdown that would really suck. What else we want to look at? Look at gold. Gold. Coming back down at 50 90, as we said yesterday, was likely not a good month close here, actually. Really not a good month close. I do think they were going to come lower overall. I do think they were going to come down to like 15, 30, maybe play out another bounce there. But I’m not I’m not bullish and I’m not bearish on this one. I am. I am. I am short term. Short term. I’m bearish here. Short term embarrassment. I do think they are going to come back down like 15, 30 ish region long term. I am neutral ish with a slight bullish twist. Twist just because of the just because of trend, but a massive long legged D-O-G double right here. I still think that this is one of the more or one of the most healthiest charts in, you know, in just the general landscape, no matter what market that you’re looking at. And again, I’m not I’m not a fan of gold. I don’t really care about gold. But it is acting as what you’d expect a hedge to act as thus far. But this this is concerning that that close, very concerning from a moment, from all sort of perspective, I GSO think that. So I would still say that more, you know, more more likely to air on the side of bullishness here than bearishness, but anywhere, anywhere below about 15 hundred. And that goes out the window, especially below fourteen seventy five. That would be a very obvious, obvious swing filler pattern. And we’re gonna come all the way back down to like thirteen hundred at that point. Jesus Christ man I when I first thought of trading I saw this thing go all the way from like eighteen hundred down to down to 10 down eleven hundred right here. I traded Gilardi. I never traded actual export gold. In fact, I want to kind of check out what it’s doing right now. How’s this one operating? Yeah. Didn’t didn’t get as favorable as a close as a spot gold. Interesting. Still interesting still. But technically a little bit a little bit of bearish divergence in play between this point right here in this point right here. That is a little bit problematic. Not by a little bit. I mean quite a bit. So that would be the bearish view on this. But this is the ETF. You do want to be looking at spot gold for actual you know, for actual direction. I do think. Anyways, arm. Where to look at Japan. We are looked at Germany. Let’s go back to Bitcoin, cover this bitch up and send them off. And then it’s twitch time baby, which I forgot to talk about earlier. I’m going to be doing twitch and we’re going to be doing the. I’m going to be going for a new all time record. The record so far is a seven is a seven hour and seven minute stream. I’m going for eight hours, baby. I’m going for eight hours. And I think that that it can be done. You’re more the moment, Jonathan. Anyways, pick one right here. Put back on these. Put it back on. The blue boxes of death indicate no peace and prosperity. April fools, go fuck yourself. Just kidding. But but you know, it’s shaking out the last for our low. Probably even does this 6 to 50 or close in a two hour delta below. Let’s call it 6 to 50 as well. I would look for a move all the way back down to six fifty nine fifty six thousand ish region. Now, the Bluebox riding over here probably does have another short term time frame bounce. However, assuming that that bounce just doesn’t get back above, let’s call it 60, 350, this region right here. I will look for that bounce get sold into and then we can play out the actual downside coming all the way back down to the mid five thousands region. By the same token, if Bitcoin were to flip back around, take out the 30th of March high on on an aggressive take on about six six fifty or especially in more conservative way, closing for our dollars back above about sixty eight hundred ish region, then I would target to move all the way up to 70, choose any 300’s region. However, I think that that would just give us another or perhaps give me another. Nice, nice trade up. Nice trade setup right there. Again, this is never fun Tobiason about French Voser but I do like a lot of things that I’m seeing the mark right now from a trading perspective. So at the end of the day to be a trader, I do think as you’re not gonna be relying on the erratic moves and swings of this asset and instead can just enjoy the volatility as that is opportunity on and off. Now, I want to wish you all I want to wish everyone here a phenomenal day. It’s been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. And this very once had a conversation once again and again, Matt. You know, I see a lot of the I see a lot of the panic with with what’s going on the world right now. I found a lot of security and insult and solace in this community and just kind of like, you know, focusing on things that we can focus on and change and keep on working towards cultivating these skills of which I’m cultivating a skill and twitch right now, which I’m really excited about, and also trading as well. Keeping that keeping that short saw swords sharp can’t speak. And and that makes for a very fun journey. So, you know, during this time, I hoped, you know, I hope that we can all come together over that anyways. Like I said, I’m droning off a little bit too long now. Take care. And until next time.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/ source https://cryptosharks1.tumblr.com/post/614262782365417472

[scottmapess]

Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

I’m bullish me into my saddle, my son and my son. Let me let me see. Let me go to my side. Let me. Yeah. April Fools. How clever. How creative. Jesus Christ, man. Sorry about that. But you know, what about having three cups of coffee in the morning? Again, a little bit of bad news from the doctor. Well, why not have a little bit of a laugh on April Fool’s? Anyway, I want to wish everyone well on this nice Tuesday or Thursday. No, it’s. Oh, it’s Wednesday, actually. It’s Wednesday. Hey, happy. Have a happy 1/0 life. Wish you a happy Wednesday from actually a kind of bright and bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland, albeit cold as fuck. It will be snowing here relatively soon is what I hear as well. So plenty to talk about on that as we do have plenty to talk about on price action as well. The monthly clothes and also I believe a couple other times higher time frames causes as well. Really set in a long term bias here. So we have much to discuss their fault from yesit’s analysis and really focus on the higher term time frame stay. So with all of that said, I would like to wish you the best, the best and perhaps the happiest because I’ve been doing that for a while. Sorry, my bad. It is more important do that than really anything else, because why the fuck not, man? It probably helps. Or at least it doesn’t hurt anyways. More importantly, let’s go check about the Crown training application which can be found at Abdol Crown traini dot net. It’s free. Go take advantage of it. It is when I’m sent for you. So anyways. Well, also for me as well. I actually use scorches. We made it. In fact, I found that’s the best way to just go about life. Make stuff that you’re actually going to use and then other people might find it valuable as well. Anyways, once again, putting the big focus on the open interest for the global derivatives, we see open interest going up about $34 40 since yes, since we last spoke yesterday for about five hundred seventy five hundred eighty to six hundred, 620 million. As it is right now. And also seen that the bitcoin dominates. I go now more or less flat. Not really saying anything there. The crypto fear and Greed Index also more or less flat as well, albeit pretty damn low in the in the low teens right now. But then that the big focus is here on the open interests. We’re gonna Tientsin to the analysis once again. And my god man, this has really been a big missing piece for I feel like myself looking at open interest. But now that we finally been able to track this over time, we have a number and we’re gonna be having a chart coming soon. I’ve been getting a lot of questions on when the chart comes. Oh there. Which is another million added. What could it be? Oh, it’s all sales coming in right through here. Beautiful tie, but more importantly, we’re working on it. It’s gonna be in the next update. But due to, well, the whole world situation, everything. Some of the updates have been pushed back a little bit just because well, it’s you know, there’s a whole global pandemic going on right now. So with regards to that open interest going up, price action. Well, let’s go see. Let’s go see what happened over here. Definitely went up. Right. Right. Right. Fuck, God damn it, man. Price action going down again. We see open interest going up, price action going down, volume having a little bit of a spike spike here. But we’re still caught in the context of the greater formations. So if what we need low term time frame is actually go back up here to the daily. And what do we know? The daily is still being held below the yellow 21 Ispent for average. Now, I just want to do a very small aside right here. This is incredibly similar to what we’re seeing on interest marks right here from a daily closing bases. We see a death cross. We see the 20 month extension on average so far rejecting price action. And this is consistent with all major all major markets. We see Japan riding over here. Same thing happened. Continuation. Oh, could that mean something? We see Germany doing about the same thing yesterday, still being rejected. But, well, I wouldn’t necessarily call this rejection, but still being held below below the 21. And with Japan kind of leading the way right now, I do believe that Bitcoin is a likely setting up for a relatively similar move. Probably put them back down below the six thousand dollar region. I see a lot of very bullish people in this market. I see a lot of very bearish people as well. So it is interesting because I do feel like our reads on sentiment in this community are probably not very consistent with the general sentiment of the market. But I do try to I do try to do my rounds of crypto Twitter and crypto YouTube just kind of kept catch up and does seem to me that most people are still kind of looking at this as likely to go back up to 8000 anyways. More importantly than that, we need to focus on the tangible things, not the intangible like bullshit that well, everyone’s book. It’s like who’s everyone in? And if and if everyone’s bullish and you’re in, you’re in, you’re the only bearish one. Then what does that even mean? I mean, I don’t know. Managers. It seems like an ego thing to me anyways, but it is it is insane nonetheless. Anyways, looking at this right here, I still stick with with with what I’ve been saying for the last few days or the last like week or so, that as long as you’re below the 21, I’ve been to an average special on an open and closed basis, but even on just a closing basis as well. I am I’m not bullish here and there’s no April Fool’s about this. I am looking at this as more or less a problem, but most likely come back down. Looking at the way that the monthy closed Miss Day Night, I do believe that we closed well below the 20 next month on average, as that’s all the way at Sony 300 ish region and hold up. Jesus Christ, man. Looks like there’s some weird things going on like Peter right over there. But more importantly, we do see that we have actually crashed or not crash, but a crack down below the 20 minutes Benjamin was on a confirmed month closing basis. So let’s. I once spend a lot of time here on the monthly, as is what say so first and foremost, as long as we are below the monthy 21 expensive inhabitants, yellow moon damage right here from a long term basis, I am not bullish at all whatsoever. In fact, the better term would be bearish. I’m looking for more downside. You can see that in Bitcoin’s history, especially go to be Aleksa next. The longest running exchange or their longest running price action is an exchange, obviously, but a trend that we’ve broken below the 20 minutes to an average. Well, that’s been deathand a K for bitcoin back over here in 2014 2015. More recently in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. And now we have it yet again in twenty. So this is something that I use in traditional markets when I was a market maker, authorized trade on the floor of AKA which I would judge a stock if it was generally bullish or gently bearish over the long term. If it’s above the 21 gently bullish blow, generally bearish works were works better with more mature assets. But now that Bitcoin’s, you know, a little bit over 10 years old, I think that it has just enough time on it for this to work. And more importantly, we have a series of efficacious signals given frontin from it. So my general my general view for the long term is I am not bullish at all whatsoever on bitcoin price action. As long as we are below that region, especially on a monthly closing basis, doesn’t mean that we can’t come back up and test it. In fact, I think that that is that that that could very easily happen now, too. But I would probably be looking at that as likely an opportunity for a counter-trend position or sorry kind of position to that move. More importantly, I think that we can now say that it would be very, very, very, very, very unlikely for Bitcoin market to be back up to 8000 or above 8000 in this, at least in the six month price action. And when we look at so much Mazur’s, which actually it’s look at the new ones right here, because down one has an updated just yet. We do see monthy stokes nosediving and more importantly, gaining momentum to the downside ratio right over here to getting reject from the bullsh controls on. Don’t like that. It’s check out monthly RSI. This one also problematic, but we didn’t actually take as big of a nosedive as I would expected here. So more importantly with the month, the RSI, well, it’s generally not a strong read or anything like that. We are still below the expansion. That exponential is working its way down to the neutral zone, although still gonna take a few months to get to get there, actually. But more importantly, if we if if we actually do test around the Barasch controls on, once again, my big fear here is that we bounce on this one, two, three, four times the fifth time and and in each subsequent try after that gets weaker and weaker. And the problem with this is, is that while we’re on the fifth time now, if we do actually come back down and test it. So if Bitcoin does break to the break to the south side, let’s call it below 5000. Now, that will likely bring monthly RSI below the bearish controls on. And I do believe that if that were to happen again, we’d very likely spend some time in there like prolonged time. We’ve we’ve had too many warm welcomes and and rejections from that region thus far. That really, really concerns me from a long term perspective. Again, if we do get back down around there. But as you know, as it is right now, it’s not necessarily there. But with the way that all well, with the way that the monthly trend is quite literally down, we literally have a monthly downtrend. We have high, low or high, low, low or high. And well, while we haven’t necessarily made a lower low just yet, I suppose that’s the game that we get to play this month. Are we setting in a higher low or a lower low if we set in a lower low, obviously below 30, 300. We are in for our first monthly are for well, not not a first monthly downturn, but a likely a very long downtrend. And that’s at the point where I’d say Bitcoin probably not can be talking about popping back up to the 5 digits, at least for a few years. So, you know, still there is a little bit of hope and left for the long term. Just don’t want to see a monthly close below our last major low right here at about thirty three hundred thirty five hundred depending upon where you’re kind of measuring it from. But but you know, that gives us the big bad range right here. We’re currently trading about, you know, 2x from that region anyways. Also, the monthly rounds of the accumulation dissipation indicated the net delta indicator. Once again, we are still maintaining this negative slope and the slope of this indicator has accurately gone in pretty much all of the market cycles in Bitcoin’s history. Pretty damn right. So with this remaining negative or is or what I should say, it’s just a downward slope is also, of course not good. But as we’ve seen in the past, you know you know, do we have sharp, sharp turns every once in a while? Yes, we do. But there should be adequate warning before the next major low is put in to put this in perspective. The last time that we had a slope change, will, you know, obviously we got the one to the downside right here in January. But I just want to show that when the slope changes, we typically spend at least one month within that range still and then turn around. So so it needs a slope change. And then next month, continuation boom. There you have a long term reversal. You know, you know, as of recently, what we saw in January 20. But what I really want to focus on here is actually the last major low that we put in in January twenty nineteen at about thirty one hundred ish region right here. So the slope changes from January to February and then it just floats way back upwards and onwards. The reason why that is, is it’s significant here is because again it gives you a little bit of time, you know, while that changes around. And the obvious, you know, obviously the general trend fall is to massively to the upside soon after that. So, you know, even even with a little bit of patience here and not getting in at the exact low at thirty three hundred, but getting in maybe a little bit higher at about thirty nine hundred, this region, which I think is pretty damn reasonable, the hopes not soon after that we do see a move all the way up to about 10000 or more really like 14000 bucks. So I just want to show that, you know, long term this is a slow moving freight train. But once it gets going, you know that, you know, those are the fun times. So could that happen here? Yes, it could happen. Could we you know, could we see a slope change on the next one, perhaps? Yes. But even then, I wouldn’t just jump right in, because as we did say, you know, it’s going to it’s going to likely take some time to reverse itself. Now, we do have a trend line forming here, to be fair. How do you know how? You know, just to touch to make a trend. No, it does not. But if we do see this next touch, actually, it’s actually turned around the slope coming in to what’s the month after April, May, June. Now, May, May. It’s May. I think it’s May, at least, anyway. It doesn’t matter what month it is just the next month after whatever fucking month that we’re in right now. Since this one doesn’t matter either, time is an arbitrary concept. If we do see this turn back around, then that should be a good signal as well. But for right now, and at least for the foreseeable future, I am overall bearish and I have no real reason be bullish on this price action. I understand that people do want to be a bulls out there and more power to you, but for the traders out there. Well, that is a monthly, obviously not the most bullish look. And then we come back down to the two day, which is, you know, which is which I do consider a higher timeframe on bitcoin. And what do we see here? The same sort of death cross that we’ve been looking at for the last the last few ticks. And what, you know, we just got another tick confirmed, I believe, yesterday. Let me just confirm. Yes. Actually, no, sorry, it did. This was a day before. But we will be confirming this next tick tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. And again, same thing here as well. We can recap rally all the way back up to the 21 X Benjamin average chest around Sony 50ish region. I think that that would be completely fine even. But I’m still bearish as long as we’re below the yellow 20 Max Benjamin average. And more importantly, we have the death cross, which is now starting to get a little bit of divergence away from each other on those two major move, never just right there. So what does that mean, long term? Well, long term, we have a very good relationship between the death cross moving averages and then and then essentially the 2010 expense. We haven’t you could say to a lesser extent the 10 simple, but. Well, we’ll kind of avoid that topic for right now, just for ease of conversation. Anyways, anytime that we’ve got the Death Cross or the Golden Cross and then price action gets on the same side as a 21 as that cross, that’s when we have big bad moves back on over here. We do see that we got the Golden Cross doing this consolidation about 7000 bucks. Bitcoin comes back down, tests 21. Nice, nice buy right there. A couple of times actually. Right here, right here, right here. And then a 2x 2p from seven thousand to fourteen thousand assuming that you bought on that region back in twenty eighteen very somewhere. Very some other Asian ship. Right. And over here as well gets a death cross late in September or late in 2018. Then we slowly but surely get ground down below the yellow. Twenty one expense for average. Now here’s the thing. Now we do get a couple of closes above, but it’s about on an open and closing basis. So you see that there’s no opens and closes above that region. And then once it gets below the twenty one, we are trending down and we are trending down pretty fucking hard all the way from top to bottom, about 52 percent move going all the way back before that. For our next example, or obviously this one is a beautiful one, going back to 2015, going all the way from like 250 bucks to 15 big. A big number, a big number like 20000 prefs. And then 2014, we had another death cross as well. Happy. And over here do play out that trend a little bit because the cross was so far away. It wasn’t really that big of a deal. And I do think that we could have something similar like this pop back up where we do see another another shakeout or another bull trap backup to the 55 or 200. But assuming that, you know, we’re still we’re still remaining below that on a closing basis, I’d expect some like this to kind of curl back on over. And then as soon as we get back down below the 20 when I speak to an average again. Well, well, this looks familiar now doesn’t hey. No, it doesn’t, because I don’t have my drawn two up, maybe about a nice on a closing basis, 55 percent on a week basis. Obviously a lot more than that. But I’m more in certain closing based right now. So, you know, looking at price action right here, you know, could we have another rally backed up to, you know, into the low of seven thousand? I think that’s possible. But there’s a lot of overhead resistance in its way. So I wouldn’t be looking for any sort of a major move into the $8000 region. I do think it’s possible we could have a move to 7000 bucks, but I’d look at that again as an opportunity. And this is not finished by not venture Voser. And of course, you know, when it comes to technical analysis, we are only using statistics in our favor over time. That is that is likely to to to produce a net positive result. But that does mean that every time is gonna work out. But I do like. The setup’s here and it’s good enough for me to put on risk if I do get that opportunity. Also looking at 2 a.m., much more serious we see to day. Stokes So I need to curl around a little bit. They start to get a little bit tired here as they approach the edge of the bears controls on which typically you are going to see some countertrend pressure at meshe you get rid of this right here. It’s not relevant to what we’re talking about now. And then we also have some well, actually we know we don’t have any hidden embellished evidence here or should I say continuation Everton’s. We certainly do, however, have it on the daily all the way back up to its eight thousand. No idea. So that’s gonna be in the charts as long as you know, as long as we’re below essentially like a what is this like eighty one hundred. Notes. It’s, it’s actually about seventy nine fifty ish regions. So on a daily plosive basis that’s always gonna be a consideration there. Not only that, we do see daily Stoke’s Curlin back down rejection, the bullet control zone and Gameau much to the downside. Not good. Not good at all. Also, we do see daily RSI reject from getting out the Barash controls on thusfar. Although this could this this this is probably the biggest hoping I’m right here. We do actually have an inverted head and shoulders on daily RSI and I put a lot more weight on formations in RSI than I do on price action, especially when it comes to the inverted head and should the head and shoulders variety. See? Yeah. You know, if we did break back above the neutral zone, above the 50 marker right here, I would look for this to play out. But until that happens, it still pressure down sooner rather than later. Again, that does still tie in to the higher term time frame buys. Remember that this can take a long time to play out. So, you know, if if we did play that out, I’d look for that move. Like, I don’t know. Seventy three hundred ish region, we’ll call it. And then I’d look for a quick rejection most likely as well. And then for all the higher term time frames to start to take on over again. Let’s go check out the twelve hour with a twelve hour two and twelve hour. Stoke’s actually did point north and did cross up on the last tick. However, here’s the thing. I think that this is likely to turn into a fake out. The reason why is because if we go over here to see CMBS, we see something completely different. And the CNE stokes in the CMB indicators in general have just been significantly more accurate than spot price action. And we got plenty of room here, plenty of room to the downside. And if we look at CMA charts right here, there’s some great symmetry here with coming back up, filling the gap. Couple are about a day and a half ago and thus far rejected below all major moving averages, even on a 12 hour. And, of course, on a daily as well as it stands. So if we. So so here’s how I can kind of break down a little bit. If we do take out the 30th of March as high, which was I think Monday or whatever day, it doesn’t matter, 30th March. This guy right here, about 66, 60. If we do take that out to the upside, I would look for an extension probably into those low seven thousand dollar numbers. Yes. Technically, we do have resistance right around 68 hundred ish region. So theoretically, I’d rather wait for like a, you know, a two hour or four hour deal to close above that region and then target to move towards seventy two to seventy three hundred each region. But it’s not really until we even get back above that hump. It even becomes, you know, in my immediate short term interpretation, I guess as to where that I’m going for anyways. While we are here on num-, on Sammies, we do CCMA. RSI is actually is a couple degrees more bearish than what we see on price on on spot price action. Significant hit embarrassed evidence here all the way back up to the 9th of March when again Bitcoin was around eight thousand bucks. And this chart again looks set, looks actually some of the reads more bearish than spot price action. And I do believe that Siamese are a lot more important. So again, short term price action. This can ebb and flow. Of course, we can get a nice we could get we could easily get a move up to seventy two to seventy under this region. But I I I I would look at that as an opportunity again and again. It’s not finished by some. I’m not found reviser, but I am just sharing my my exact thoughts on these situations as they come about for our looks like we’re kind of breaking down, rolling over once again for our looks like we’re probably popping back down at six thousand ish region low six thousand. And and I would kind of hold on to that idea as long as we are below sixty five fifty ish regions. So maybe now’s the time to get onto the lower term time frames. Let’s go back to let’s go back a bit Mexico. Mexico is kind of tipping over as well. What could this be. Momentum losing to the downside. Oh and is this the same trouble that we had plotted against already have it in there? Is this the same trend line that we have plotted out yesterday, providing the same resistance from the same last couple highs, ninetieth March 25th or 24th, March right here. And once again, on the 30th of March, I think it might just be. And I do think that this is likely going to end up back down in this. Bluebox Right here, some Bitcoin’s short Senate stint above the Bluebox Right and over here faded rather quickly. I think that this was that this cell right here was a front runner. This BLUEBOX And likely coming back down to the six thousand dollar mark, maybe been a little bit below this. Bluebox Right here. That’s where things get interesting once again. So let’s now start to start to break down the lower term time frames. Now there’s there’s a couple ways of doing this. I’m going to do this in the more conservative way because I think it’s just it’s appropriate in this region, even though I do think even though I do think you could probably. You could get aggressive traders who are going to be rewarded most likely. I didn’t say that. I didn’t say that. But Sabbar Hape, if we do take out either to last. Even the. Even taken out the last for hour low to the downside at 6 to 50, or especially for close even a two hour dollar below 60 to 50 ish region, the lower end of this. Bluebox And this is a more concerted way of doing it. I would target has moved down down around 50 950 ish region. I would look for another bounce of this guy. But remember, that is the lower bound that is that is actually gonna be below the lower bound of this rising channel support that we’ve been playing off of ever since our low riding over here on the 12th of March, which, by the way, doesn’t look right on a on a 4 hour. But we’ll look proper on a 2 hour right here. And for all the multiples of that siete, you know, if you know, if we do come back down, obviously to about 60, 150, we have another short term time frame bounce. Yes. Maybe I I don’t have a strong opinion on that. But I do think my strong opinions I’ll just be a short term time frame bounce as long as long as you remain below above 6, RSI below 60, 350. You know, I’d still I’d still say that that’s pressure down. And we’re likely to break this rising trend line right here as we come down to the next major blue bought or not even Major Bluebox, but like a medium time from relevant Bluebox again in the 59, we’ll just call it fifty nine hundred this region if, if and when we do break this one. I would look for a nice shouter in a price action all the way back down to fifty five hundred. Just reading. That’s going to be the weekly tour and it’s simple moving average, which probably does bounce it again as as indicated by this nice blue box. And it’s only because of the blue box at a bounce is not because of any other reason. No, of course not. This is this is not hocus pocus bullshit. It’s, um. It’s it’s while it’s. It’s just a nice area that generally people are gonna be betting on because of the nature of the tune. It’s simple on a weekly a lot of lotto, you know, a lot of the higher term time frame traders are just gonna have their balls now get set to buy it. But seeing as we haven’t haven’t necessarily broken this trend line just yet, initiated the measure moved from this rising channel, I would proverbially put it around where it could break if it does happen today. And that would still be pointing us down towards a little bit higher than before, but about 40 to 50 ish region on new lows. That would be interesting to me, though, and I do think that there’d be bounces along the way, perhaps universe it vs. along the way. But I’d be looking at this area right here, 55, I’d look at this area right here, 51, and I’d look at this area right here at 48, 14:00. And then and then assuming that those that that all those bounce temps fail, I would look for a full on return all the way back down here to 40 to 50. Why is that relevant? Well, because if we were to come all the way back down there, we likely would be creating bullish evidence on the daily by that point as the daily RSI got. So damn, I’m actually didn’t get mean. It got it got pretty low, to be fair, but it didn’t get into single digits, which very I don’t even think we’ve even seen or may. Maybe we have like a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Yeah, we did actually over here. This was November 2008. One of the most intense moves to the downside that we’ve seen in this baby anyways. So as it stands, you know, this right here to me is like your classic fuckin vertical move in a bear market usually going to be a usually gonna be a short squeeze. And I think that that’s what we’re seeing right here. The question to me, you know, D. The question that I’m deliberating on right now is do we get it? Do we get another move up to 70, 300, this region in tests there? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t. A strong opinion on that. I’ll leave a strong opinion if we break sixty eight hundred the upside, then we probably will get it. But I still look at it, you know, adds it as an opportunity. This is just this is like fucking picture perfect actually. Volume tailing off. We saw open interest go down the whole way as bitcoin hit that area from like 1.5 billion with a B to a little bit over 600 million now. And as price actually moves down from yesterday to today and all the moves down that we’ve seen, first thing that open interest go up. So that is just showing us that bears are where were were close their shorts, which likely caused this this rise right here. So a little bit of a short squeeze on top of that for the overleveraged late traders, late to the trade traders. And now we know as bears put back on their positions, once again, they are they are in full control and they are running things. And I fear that this is going to take a long time for the bitcoin holders out there, but doesn’t matter for Hotaling for life, because while it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter anyways, because, like, you’re just gonna hold onto it till death. You’re not gonna. Are you just gonna look at pics on your screen and stroke it? I don’t know. I don’t know. Anyways, I don’t understand that perspective. But if you are that person, if you are that person who is who who is hashtag Hoddle till I die, I’m curious to know why. Why? What’s what’s the purpose of that? If you’re not going to use it. And I sincerely mean that I’m not I’m not trying to be. What’s the word I’m looking for patronising or any or anything? I’m genuinely curious. What’s the allure to that sort of position or is there any sort of or is there any thought process behind it? I’m curious anyways. More importantly, if we do get them move back down to 40 to an honest region, then at that point we likely will be making some bullish evidence on the daily. Why is that significant? Well, because Bitcoin’s never bottomed ever, ever, ever, ever on a major macro market cycle or even a major move without having bullish evidence on, at the very least, a daily dollar timeframe. To put this in perspective, even on this major move right here. Markets like a low, but a major move nonetheless. Multi-thousand move, 4000 or move to be exact. We had pretty massive bullish evidence off the off the six six hundred number right here. We had three drives out here before 3000. Our move bearish divergence on the top right here. It works both ways and three drives a bullish divergence in 2018, 2019 on this. Thirty one hundred low for here. Several examples in twenty eighteen on all these failed rally attempts and we can go all the way back as well. But I would we’ve done this too many fucking times already now for the newer people here. Well that there’s a long term analysis video in it. Sorry. In the long term analysis playlist that you’re more than welcome to TiVo anyways. Okay. All righty. So what else do we want to look at? This video is already been twenty five minutes long. How does that even happen? I don’t know. But let’s go back down to lower term time frames and let’s start to look at probabilities with regards to these ranges. Let’s let’s keep in mind the range is once again. So here today’s a little bit of a different day, right? Because technically speaking, I have this blue box as the next medium time frame actionable point as well as this blue box to the upside, which has remained consistent at sixty eight hundred. I do, however, think that it would be you probably could be could be aggressive if bitcoin were to break sixty one hundred ish region or above the 30th of March is high at about sixty six fifty we’ll call it. So we’ll look at the probabilities of all these for the lower term time frames. But keep in mind that it’s really this guy right here and technically this guy right here that are the big ones. Then on the outside peripheries for the higher term time frames. Seventy three hundred region. And then of course, fifty five hunters can be our next major area to the downside, although. Well, I’d be skeptical of that one, too. Anyways, let’s just look at the probabilities as they are as this dance. And this is on a daily, by the way. This is on a daily. So we do see that the first tend to be Asian is coming in right around 60, 750 to the upside and sixty and fifty nine hundred to the downside. So that pretty much accurately gets those actionable points to begin with. I’m saying sixty eight hundred of the upside. So be a little bit outside the topside range and I’m saying fifty nine hundred. The downsides, I’ll be right on the edge of that precipice. So it’d be about a 16 percent chance of actually do close below the bottom trigger point for today. Now remember that Borton trigger point is a little bit more of a conservative estimate. I do think that you could accurately put that at 60 100 and probably be right anyways, giving you a twenty dollar leg up on that move. So that’s obviously gonna be well within those probabilities. If I had to do some mental math that I imagine it’s like twenty five percent, you know, which is which is which is high which, which is quite high by the same token to the upside it’s gonna be a little bit less than 16. It’s going to be more like less than 14, 13 percent if I had to guess. But we can actually do this exact as it is. So with regards to that, let’s go check him out. What’s. I think I’m on the wrong one, actually. Right now. Yep. Okay. All right. Where where are my panels go? Hey, where are my panels? I just. I must I must have ticked something off because I was just looking at this earlier. Perhaps perhaps this right here. Yeah. Should be right here at least. Yeah. We can do some some single sided targets. All right. So let’s check out this. Let’s check out this. And then where’s my goddamn panel? Where’s my panels? Whereas my panels. Let’s go to the downside I’m going to do. I’m gonna do six thousand. Just kind of like cut those two major areas to the to the middle. And let’s see, where is where the fuck is. Most definitely, sir. Sir, it should be here. I don’t I don’t have this. Mm hmm. It actually shows the probability, right, that that’s kind of cool. OK. I thought I thought that we’d have another pain there, but that’s OK. Yeah. Baldies actually been working on this quite a bit. So it is pretty damn cool to see. Anyways, it would suggest about no, that can’t that can’t be right because I’ll be a 4 percent four-person chancellery. And to the downside, after actually checking with him because for whatever reason we were just speaking before this video and it looks like my probability panel disappeared. Where? Hold on. It should show the it should show the position here. We got negative 40 and 100. Mm hmm. We’ll see what this one is and we’ll just put it right next to it. It’s a negative 10 and one. OK. So maybe if we do like negative 20, get a little bit close, then see if this works. Yeah. There it is. Oh, man. All right. Nice one anyways. OK. There we go. OK. And that makes a lot more sense. 30 if we do use six thousand our level at as kind of a mark to the middle for the downside, 30 percent chance. And this is by dates and clothes for the upside. I would still stick with 68 just because, you know, trend is against it right now. And bias is to the downside. So I’d rather be more conservative even though probably 66 50 does get it. But so let’s see here to the upside 60. Hold on. That can’t be right. Sixty eight. It’s using. Was it using a range? No. It should not be used in range. Yeah. It’s using single side right now. Just says that. OK, cool. That probably actually does not make sense. So I’m going to talk to Bolly again because I think I’m using the wrong inputs here. Should be on on on current time is 1. Okay. Prive little bit of talking to do. But maybe we could use a different R.F.. OK. I will arrive to prompt a wait for this one. But you know, we can still kind of eyeball it anyways just because the tops of the first aviation is coming in at sixty seven fifty. It’s gonna be less than a 60 percent chance, so probably around 13 percent anyways for the upside. So interesting off to kind of talk that one out. Let me just make sure that yeah. That that would not make sense. Or maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers here. No I don’t think so. Well I’ll figure this one out anyways anyways. OK, cool. So with that in mind, I do still think, you know, just just generically looking at that. It does look to me like we probably are angled for the downside here again, from a called probability standpoint and just offs from an underlying market dynamic standpoint, also from a structure standpoint. Also just from I again, I this is a very familiar move that we see quite often in Bear, you know, in these failed bear market rally. It’s just a very vertical move up and then momentum wanes anyways. Is this a good time to go? Let’s actually go check out CMBS right now as well. Here’s if there’s anything other else different on this. We’ll see how the money looks on this one. Obviously, the month looks like absolute dog shit, not the picture of health and fitness there now is it? Let’s go check out a two day to day. Still be held below the 10 simple looks like downwards pressure to me. And we could also use that as an actionable point as well. As long as the two day is below the 10 simple, I would not look for that next. That next shakeout to the upside. The next squeeze. The upside. Now, if we do close above the 10 simple Cixi, it’s basically at sixty five fifty sixty six six hundredths region. Then I would look for a retest of the twenty one. All the way. All the way. Currently it’s at around twenty five point eight, but I would match that about the time that actually does happen should be down around the seventy three candidates region. Now more importantly Death Cross is, is it’s actually technically not confirmed broadened over here just yet, but it is in the works, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the CMC moving averages on this heibel time frame just yet as it’s too new. It’s neat. It needs a couple more years of price action. I mean realistically, we haven’t even had the 200X measurement average here for too long. As you can see, just started in June. Twenty nineteen. But of course GAPPAH Gap boys rejoice because your gap’s going to be filled perhaps. And I’ll le I’ll leave that for the long term analysis fed video for right now. I think that that kind of accurately covers up all that I want to say in the lower term time frames looking at for our right here we have the same sort of trend line as you can imagine as well. I do believe that we’re seeing this aggressively turn down once again. Let’s go check. Ouch. Let’s go check out some of the other market leaders. Just just make sure that the market more or less agrees with itself. Beautiful. Certainly a degree, a degree, a degree more week as we do see this one just kind of floating aimlessly sideways, did not get the same sort of upward move that Bitcoin did. If this one does have another move, the upside, I’ll be looking for a move towards 1:43 in a quarter. But I think I think that they’ll likely still be a major opportunity. Well, much more so is turning down as price action fails to even get out of the neutral zone and is essentially hugging onto the lows. So that’s a. That looks like a Barasch reset to me. Same thing with daily RSI. This is not again. Or do we have an embarrassed evidence here? Just barely. Just barely. Attentively as president, but but just barely. If we take out yesterday’s low, then it will be confirmed, which is 130, spot 6:03. Perhaps press worth putting an alert there. In fact, I will add. Fuck it, I want you. But if that does happen, I’d look for a move back down to like 1:22 region. What about Mrs like win? How she doing as she’s about the same as β all. Maybe a little bit stronger, relatively speaking, but same thing here. Momentum also does turned down daily RSI. Do we have the same sort of potential had embarrassed divergence here? Kind of. Yes. Again, it looks like a bearish reset to me. Not not getting the same sort of strength as Bitcoin did on those last couple moves. The upside, but still hugging the lows. I mean, this is just this. This is what the chart actually looks like. Stop putting on logger minutes yet. You don’t need logarithmic scale anymore. We’ve had enough history in bitcoin. We’ve we’ve had enough history. Bitcoin now where linear scale I think is relevant, especially if you’re looking at any price action from like twenty seventeen to where we are right now. Maybe if you look at it before that prior to 2017, you might want log scale, but. But now now that Bitcoin’s been around for more than 10 years, we can use linear scale and you know, especially as the range kind of consolidates between this 3000 level and about about the ten thousand dollar level on average. OK, what else we want to look at? Let’s go look at spineless you a little more of a deep dive here. So last week I said that espied if Spike closes below the 2 and it’s simple and 200x Benjamin average, then I would not be bullish. I would be overall bearish looking for new lows. I don’t necessarily know when those new lows will come in, but I do believe that we likely will attempt to new lows and I still stick with that and I would be sticking with that, you know. Granted the same criteria as longs for closing weekly doulas, especially the one at Simple at 264 and a half. I do believe that that we’re going to come back down and test tests to 35 at the very least, and probably another small bounce there. And then and then and then we’ll kind of look it up, you know, look at it from there. But as it is right now, you know, pressure down here. Now, if we did close above the 2 an example, I’d look for a move perhaps all the way back up to like 285 region. But this is a very smart move to Bitcoin as well. Just a very vertical move off the lows. I can’t be bullish on this as long as long as even below the daily twenty one here on a closing basis, especially on an open and close basis that we have as we have seen, a couple of fake outs among the general market index indices. Well this one technically an ETF, but you know its tracks sbx. So you you already fucking know anyways. So yep. You know, I do think those one product does come back down to like five and then to 35 probably played another bounce there and then better hope that that one plays out back above 265. Otherwise new lows, maybe new lows. Same thing here as well. We’ve actually never had major lows put in without without bullish evidence. Not not at a daily but actually I believe on a weekly all mage, all all major lows have been have been put on on or actually. No, not all major lows have been put on for a for a what’s called a a weekly weekly bullish Everton’s. But market cycle lows have. Yeah. Going back to 2008 and going back to 2000, both major crashes. We do have phenomenal bullish divergence, at least two drives in some cases, three coming out of those markets. And if we go all the way back to eighty seven, which I don’t think we have enough price action history here for fuck. Yeah. If if only then I’d imagine that we proxy it there too. Not now. It make three times, but unfortunately due to the limitations of trading V we cannot see back that far. More importantly, you know, it’s still kind of holded with that. As long you know, as long as it’s working and we pay close monthly in yesterday as well and we close right below the 55. Just a just a just a dick hair below 55 on heavy volume on increasing volume, nonetheless. And is that is that indicative of capitulation there? Perhaps, yes. Per. You know you know, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit capitulation there, but dip in our 20s, he was back into the bearish control zone of this. That means that we also closed on new lows. No, sorry, we did not close on new lows as well. Okay. This one actually could still have a chance to bottom in the 235 ish region. It’s still a possibility, I suppose, but I’m not necessarily looking forward to it. Monthly’s Stoke’s have found all of their major lows, especially for this run right here at the edge of the bear. At the edge of the bullsh controls on eversince, all that going all the way back to 2008. So I do think that we probly come back down and test that region and put in a major low on it, as we have done right here, as we’ve done right here, as we’ve done right here and as we’ve done right here. All phenomenal buys post 2008. Do we come back down to that trend line again? I think I think yes, likely. And I also think that we’ll probly bounce on that one again. Here’s the counterpoint to that. We’ll just we’ll just pretend that that didn’t happen. I don’t wanna see a fucking global financial meltdown that would really suck. What else we want to look at? Look at gold. Gold. Coming back down at 50 90, as we said yesterday, was likely not a good month close here, actually. Really not a good month close. I do think they were going to come lower overall. I do think they were going to come down to like 15, 30, maybe play out another bounce there. But I’m not I’m not bullish and I’m not bearish on this one. I am. I am. I am short term. Short term. I’m bearish here. Short term embarrassment. I do think they are going to come back down like 15, 30 ish region long term. I am neutral ish with a slight bullish twist. Twist just because of the just because of trend, but a massive long legged D-O-G double right here. I still think that this is one of the more or one of the most healthiest charts in, you know, in just the general landscape, no matter what market that you’re looking at. And again, I’m not I’m not a fan of gold. I don’t really care about gold. But it is acting as what you’d expect a hedge to act as thus far. But this this is concerning that that close, very concerning from a moment, from all sort of perspective, I GSO think that. So I would still say that more, you know, more more likely to air on the side of bullishness here than bearishness, but anywhere, anywhere below about 15 hundred. And that goes out the window, especially below fourteen seventy five. That would be a very obvious, obvious swing filler pattern. And we’re gonna come all the way back down to like thirteen hundred at that point. Jesus Christ man I when I first thought of trading I saw this thing go all the way from like eighteen hundred down to down to 10 down eleven hundred right here. I traded Gilardi. I never traded actual export gold. In fact, I want to kind of check out what it’s doing right now. How’s this one operating? Yeah. Didn’t didn’t get as favorable as a close as a spot gold. Interesting. Still interesting still. But technically a little bit a little bit of bearish divergence in play between this point right here in this point right here. That is a little bit problematic. Not by a little bit. I mean quite a bit. So that would be the bearish view on this. But this is the ETF. You do want to be looking at spot gold for actual you know, for actual direction. I do think. Anyways, arm. Where to look at Japan. We are looked at Germany. Let’s go back to Bitcoin, cover this bitch up and send them off. And then it’s twitch time baby, which I forgot to talk about earlier. I’m going to be doing twitch and we’re going to be doing the. I’m going to be going for a new all time record. The record so far is a seven is a seven hour and seven minute stream. I’m going for eight hours, baby. I’m going for eight hours. And I think that that it can be done. You’re more the moment, Jonathan. Anyways, pick one right here. Put back on these. Put it back on. The blue boxes of death indicate no peace and prosperity. April fools, go fuck yourself. Just kidding. But but you know, it’s shaking out the last for our low. Probably even does this 6 to 50 or close in a two hour delta below. Let’s call it 6 to 50 as well. I would look for a move all the way back down to six fifty nine fifty six thousand ish region. Now, the Bluebox riding over here probably does have another short term time frame bounce. However, assuming that that bounce just doesn’t get back above, let’s call it 60, 350, this region right here. I will look for that bounce get sold into and then we can play out the actual downside coming all the way back down to the mid five thousands region. By the same token, if Bitcoin were to flip back around, take out the 30th of March high on on an aggressive take on about six six fifty or especially in more conservative way, closing for our dollars back above about sixty eight hundred ish region, then I would target to move all the way up to 70, choose any 300’s region. However, I think that that would just give us another or perhaps give me another. Nice, nice trade up. Nice trade setup right there. Again, this is never fun Tobiason about French Voser but I do like a lot of things that I’m seeing the mark right now from a trading perspective. So at the end of the day to be a trader, I do think as you’re not gonna be relying on the erratic moves and swings of this asset and instead can just enjoy the volatility as that is opportunity on and off. Now, I want to wish you all I want to wish everyone here a phenomenal day. It’s been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. And this very once had a conversation once again and again, Matt. You know, I see a lot of the I see a lot of the panic with with what’s going on the world right now. I found a lot of security and insult and solace in this community and just kind of like, you know, focusing on things that we can focus on and change and keep on working towards cultivating these skills of which I’m cultivating a skill and twitch right now, which I’m really excited about, and also trading as well. Keeping that keeping that short saw swords sharp can’t speak. And and that makes for a very fun journey. So, you know, during this time, I hoped, you know, I hope that we can all come together over that anyways. Like I said, I’m droning off a little bit too long now. Take care. And until next time.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/ source https://cryptosharks1.blogspot.com/2020/04/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price.html

[cryptosharks1]

Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

I’m bullish me into my saddle, my son and my son. Let me let me see. Let me go to my side. Let me. Yeah. April Fools. How clever. How creative. Jesus Christ, man. Sorry about that. But you know, what about having three cups of coffee in the morning? Again, a little bit of bad news from the doctor. Well, why not have a little bit of a laugh on April Fool’s? Anyway, I want to wish everyone well on this nice Tuesday or Thursday. No, it’s. Oh, it’s Wednesday, actually. It’s Wednesday. Hey, happy. Have a happy 1/0 life. Wish you a happy Wednesday from actually a kind of bright and bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland, albeit cold as fuck. It will be snowing here relatively soon is what I hear as well. So plenty to talk about on that as we do have plenty to talk about on price action as well. The monthly clothes and also I believe a couple other times higher time frames causes as well. Really set in a long term bias here. So we have much to discuss their fault from yesit’s analysis and really focus on the higher term time frame stay. So with all of that said, I would like to wish you the best, the best and perhaps the happiest because I’ve been doing that for a while. Sorry, my bad. It is more important do that than really anything else, because why the fuck not, man? It probably helps. Or at least it doesn’t hurt anyways. More importantly, let’s go check about the Crown training application which can be found at Abdol Crown traini dot net. It’s free. Go take advantage of it. It is when I’m sent for you. So anyways. Well, also for me as well. I actually use scorches. We made it. In fact, I found that’s the best way to just go about life. Make stuff that you’re actually going to use and then other people might find it valuable as well. Anyways, once again, putting the big focus on the open interest for the global derivatives, we see open interest going up about $34 40 since yes, since we last spoke yesterday for about five hundred seventy five hundred eighty to six hundred, 620 million. As it is right now. And also seen that the bitcoin dominates. I go now more or less flat. Not really saying anything there. The crypto fear and Greed Index also more or less flat as well, albeit pretty damn low in the in the low teens right now. But then that the big focus is here on the open interests. We’re gonna Tientsin to the analysis once again. And my god man, this has really been a big missing piece for I feel like myself looking at open interest. But now that we finally been able to track this over time, we have a number and we’re gonna be having a chart coming soon. I’ve been getting a lot of questions on when the chart comes. Oh there. Which is another million added. What could it be? Oh, it’s all sales coming in right through here. Beautiful tie, but more importantly, we’re working on it. It’s gonna be in the next update. But due to, well, the whole world situation, everything. Some of the updates have been pushed back a little bit just because well, it’s you know, there’s a whole global pandemic going on right now. So with regards to that open interest going up, price action. Well, let’s go see. Let’s go see what happened over here. Definitely went up. Right. Right. Right. Fuck, God damn it, man. Price action going down again. We see open interest going up, price action going down, volume having a little bit of a spike spike here. But we’re still caught in the context of the greater formations. So if what we need low term time frame is actually go back up here to the daily. And what do we know? The daily is still being held below the yellow 21 Ispent for average. Now, I just want to do a very small aside right here. This is incredibly similar to what we’re seeing on interest marks right here from a daily closing bases. We see a death cross. We see the 20 month extension on average so far rejecting price action. And this is consistent with all major all major markets. We see Japan riding over here. Same thing happened. Continuation. Oh, could that mean something? We see Germany doing about the same thing yesterday, still being rejected. But, well, I wouldn’t necessarily call this rejection, but still being held below below the 21. And with Japan kind of leading the way right now, I do believe that Bitcoin is a likely setting up for a relatively similar move. Probably put them back down below the six thousand dollar region. I see a lot of very bullish people in this market. I see a lot of very bearish people as well. So it is interesting because I do feel like our reads on sentiment in this community are probably not very consistent with the general sentiment of the market. But I do try to I do try to do my rounds of crypto Twitter and crypto YouTube just kind of kept catch up and does seem to me that most people are still kind of looking at this as likely to go back up to 8000 anyways. More importantly than that, we need to focus on the tangible things, not the intangible like bullshit that well, everyone’s book. It’s like who’s everyone in? And if and if everyone’s bullish and you’re in, you’re in, you’re the only bearish one. Then what does that even mean? I mean, I don’t know. Managers. It seems like an ego thing to me anyways, but it is it is insane nonetheless. Anyways, looking at this right here, I still stick with with with what I’ve been saying for the last few days or the last like week or so, that as long as you’re below the 21, I’ve been to an average special on an open and closed basis, but even on just a closing basis as well. I am I’m not bullish here and there’s no April Fool’s about this. I am looking at this as more or less a problem, but most likely come back down. Looking at the way that the monthy closed Miss Day Night, I do believe that we closed well below the 20 next month on average, as that’s all the way at Sony 300 ish region and hold up. Jesus Christ, man. Looks like there’s some weird things going on like Peter right over there. But more importantly, we do see that we have actually crashed or not crash, but a crack down below the 20 minutes Benjamin was on a confirmed month closing basis. So let’s. I once spend a lot of time here on the monthly, as is what say so first and foremost, as long as we are below the monthy 21 expensive inhabitants, yellow moon damage right here from a long term basis, I am not bullish at all whatsoever. In fact, the better term would be bearish. I’m looking for more downside. You can see that in Bitcoin’s history, especially go to be Aleksa next. The longest running exchange or their longest running price action is an exchange, obviously, but a trend that we’ve broken below the 20 minutes to an average. Well, that’s been deathand a K for bitcoin back over here in 2014 2015. More recently in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. And now we have it yet again in twenty. So this is something that I use in traditional markets when I was a market maker, authorized trade on the floor of AKA which I would judge a stock if it was generally bullish or gently bearish over the long term. If it’s above the 21 gently bullish blow, generally bearish works were works better with more mature assets. But now that Bitcoin’s, you know, a little bit over 10 years old, I think that it has just enough time on it for this to work. And more importantly, we have a series of efficacious signals given frontin from it. So my general my general view for the long term is I am not bullish at all whatsoever on bitcoin price action. As long as we are below that region, especially on a monthly closing basis, doesn’t mean that we can’t come back up and test it. In fact, I think that that is that that that could very easily happen now, too. But I would probably be looking at that as likely an opportunity for a counter-trend position or sorry kind of position to that move. More importantly, I think that we can now say that it would be very, very, very, very, very unlikely for Bitcoin market to be back up to 8000 or above 8000 in this, at least in the six month price action. And when we look at so much Mazur’s, which actually it’s look at the new ones right here, because down one has an updated just yet. We do see monthy stokes nosediving and more importantly, gaining momentum to the downside ratio right over here to getting reject from the bullsh controls on. Don’t like that. It’s check out monthly RSI. This one also problematic, but we didn’t actually take as big of a nosedive as I would expected here. So more importantly with the month, the RSI, well, it’s generally not a strong read or anything like that. We are still below the expansion. That exponential is working its way down to the neutral zone, although still gonna take a few months to get to get there, actually. But more importantly, if we if if we actually do test around the Barasch controls on, once again, my big fear here is that we bounce on this one, two, three, four times the fifth time and and in each subsequent try after that gets weaker and weaker. And the problem with this is, is that while we’re on the fifth time now, if we do actually come back down and test it. So if Bitcoin does break to the break to the south side, let’s call it below 5000. Now, that will likely bring monthly RSI below the bearish controls on. And I do believe that if that were to happen again, we’d very likely spend some time in there like prolonged time. We’ve we’ve had too many warm welcomes and and rejections from that region thus far. That really, really concerns me from a long term perspective. Again, if we do get back down around there. But as you know, as it is right now, it’s not necessarily there. But with the way that all well, with the way that the monthly trend is quite literally down, we literally have a monthly downtrend. We have high, low or high, low, low or high. And well, while we haven’t necessarily made a lower low just yet, I suppose that’s the game that we get to play this month. Are we setting in a higher low or a lower low if we set in a lower low, obviously below 30, 300. We are in for our first monthly are for well, not not a first monthly downturn, but a likely a very long downtrend. And that’s at the point where I’d say Bitcoin probably not can be talking about popping back up to the 5 digits, at least for a few years. So, you know, still there is a little bit of hope and left for the long term. Just don’t want to see a monthly close below our last major low right here at about thirty three hundred thirty five hundred depending upon where you’re kind of measuring it from. But but you know, that gives us the big bad range right here. We’re currently trading about, you know, 2x from that region anyways. Also, the monthly rounds of the accumulation dissipation indicated the net delta indicator. Once again, we are still maintaining this negative slope and the slope of this indicator has accurately gone in pretty much all of the market cycles in Bitcoin’s history. Pretty damn right. So with this remaining negative or is or what I should say, it’s just a downward slope is also, of course not good. But as we’ve seen in the past, you know you know, do we have sharp, sharp turns every once in a while? Yes, we do. But there should be adequate warning before the next major low is put in to put this in perspective. The last time that we had a slope change, will, you know, obviously we got the one to the downside right here in January. But I just want to show that when the slope changes, we typically spend at least one month within that range still and then turn around. So so it needs a slope change. And then next month, continuation boom. There you have a long term reversal. You know, you know, as of recently, what we saw in January 20. But what I really want to focus on here is actually the last major low that we put in in January twenty nineteen at about thirty one hundred ish region right here. So the slope changes from January to February and then it just floats way back upwards and onwards. The reason why that is, is it’s significant here is because again it gives you a little bit of time, you know, while that changes around. And the obvious, you know, obviously the general trend fall is to massively to the upside soon after that. So, you know, even even with a little bit of patience here and not getting in at the exact low at thirty three hundred, but getting in maybe a little bit higher at about thirty nine hundred, this region, which I think is pretty damn reasonable, the hopes not soon after that we do see a move all the way up to about 10000 or more really like 14000 bucks. So I just want to show that, you know, long term this is a slow moving freight train. But once it gets going, you know that, you know, those are the fun times. So could that happen here? Yes, it could happen. Could we you know, could we see a slope change on the next one, perhaps? Yes. But even then, I wouldn’t just jump right in, because as we did say, you know, it’s going to it’s going to likely take some time to reverse itself. Now, we do have a trend line forming here, to be fair. How do you know how? You know, just to touch to make a trend. No, it does not. But if we do see this next touch, actually, it’s actually turned around the slope coming in to what’s the month after April, May, June. Now, May, May. It’s May. I think it’s May, at least, anyway. It doesn’t matter what month it is just the next month after whatever fucking month that we’re in right now. Since this one doesn’t matter either, time is an arbitrary concept. If we do see this turn back around, then that should be a good signal as well. But for right now, and at least for the foreseeable future, I am overall bearish and I have no real reason be bullish on this price action. I understand that people do want to be a bulls out there and more power to you, but for the traders out there. Well, that is a monthly, obviously not the most bullish look. And then we come back down to the two day, which is, you know, which is which I do consider a higher timeframe on bitcoin. And what do we see here? The same sort of death cross that we’ve been looking at for the last the last few ticks. And what, you know, we just got another tick confirmed, I believe, yesterday. Let me just confirm. Yes. Actually, no, sorry, it did. This was a day before. But we will be confirming this next tick tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. And again, same thing here as well. We can recap rally all the way back up to the 21 X Benjamin average chest around Sony 50ish region. I think that that would be completely fine even. But I’m still bearish as long as we’re below the yellow 20 Max Benjamin average. And more importantly, we have the death cross, which is now starting to get a little bit of divergence away from each other on those two major move, never just right there. So what does that mean, long term? Well, long term, we have a very good relationship between the death cross moving averages and then and then essentially the 2010 expense. We haven’t you could say to a lesser extent the 10 simple, but. Well, we’ll kind of avoid that topic for right now, just for ease of conversation. Anyways, anytime that we’ve got the Death Cross or the Golden Cross and then price action gets on the same side as a 21 as that cross, that’s when we have big bad moves back on over here. We do see that we got the Golden Cross doing this consolidation about 7000 bucks. Bitcoin comes back down, tests 21. Nice, nice buy right there. A couple of times actually. Right here, right here, right here. And then a 2x 2p from seven thousand to fourteen thousand assuming that you bought on that region back in twenty eighteen very somewhere. Very some other Asian ship. Right. And over here as well gets a death cross late in September or late in 2018. Then we slowly but surely get ground down below the yellow. Twenty one expense for average. Now here’s the thing. Now we do get a couple of closes above, but it’s about on an open and closing basis. So you see that there’s no opens and closes above that region. And then once it gets below the twenty one, we are trending down and we are trending down pretty fucking hard all the way from top to bottom, about 52 percent move going all the way back before that. For our next example, or obviously this one is a beautiful one, going back to 2015, going all the way from like 250 bucks to 15 big. A big number, a big number like 20000 prefs. And then 2014, we had another death cross as well. Happy. And over here do play out that trend a little bit because the cross was so far away. It wasn’t really that big of a deal. And I do think that we could have something similar like this pop back up where we do see another another shakeout or another bull trap backup to the 55 or 200. But assuming that, you know, we’re still we’re still remaining below that on a closing basis, I’d expect some like this to kind of curl back on over. And then as soon as we get back down below the 20 when I speak to an average again. Well, well, this looks familiar now doesn’t hey. No, it doesn’t, because I don’t have my drawn two up, maybe about a nice on a closing basis, 55 percent on a week basis. Obviously a lot more than that. But I’m more in certain closing based right now. So, you know, looking at price action right here, you know, could we have another rally backed up to, you know, into the low of seven thousand? I think that’s possible. But there’s a lot of overhead resistance in its way. So I wouldn’t be looking for any sort of a major move into the $8000 region. I do think it’s possible we could have a move to 7000 bucks, but I’d look at that again as an opportunity. And this is not finished by not venture Voser. And of course, you know, when it comes to technical analysis, we are only using statistics in our favor over time. That is that is likely to to to produce a net positive result. But that does mean that every time is gonna work out. But I do like. The setup’s here and it’s good enough for me to put on risk if I do get that opportunity. Also looking at 2 a.m., much more serious we see to day. Stokes So I need to curl around a little bit. They start to get a little bit tired here as they approach the edge of the bears controls on which typically you are going to see some countertrend pressure at meshe you get rid of this right here. It’s not relevant to what we’re talking about now. And then we also have some well, actually we know we don’t have any hidden embellished evidence here or should I say continuation Everton’s. We certainly do, however, have it on the daily all the way back up to its eight thousand. No idea. So that’s gonna be in the charts as long as you know, as long as we’re below essentially like a what is this like eighty one hundred. Notes. It’s, it’s actually about seventy nine fifty ish regions. So on a daily plosive basis that’s always gonna be a consideration there. Not only that, we do see daily Stoke’s Curlin back down rejection, the bullet control zone and Gameau much to the downside. Not good. Not good at all. Also, we do see daily RSI reject from getting out the Barash controls on thusfar. Although this could this this this is probably the biggest hoping I’m right here. We do actually have an inverted head and shoulders on daily RSI and I put a lot more weight on formations in RSI than I do on price action, especially when it comes to the inverted head and should the head and shoulders variety. See? Yeah. You know, if we did break back above the neutral zone, above the 50 marker right here, I would look for this to play out. But until that happens, it still pressure down sooner rather than later. Again, that does still tie in to the higher term time frame buys. Remember that this can take a long time to play out. So, you know, if if we did play that out, I’d look for that move. Like, I don’t know. Seventy three hundred ish region, we’ll call it. And then I’d look for a quick rejection most likely as well. And then for all the higher term time frames to start to take on over again. Let’s go check out the twelve hour with a twelve hour two and twelve hour. Stoke’s actually did point north and did cross up on the last tick. However, here’s the thing. I think that this is likely to turn into a fake out. The reason why is because if we go over here to see CMBS, we see something completely different. And the CNE stokes in the CMB indicators in general have just been significantly more accurate than spot price action. And we got plenty of room here, plenty of room to the downside. And if we look at CMA charts right here, there’s some great symmetry here with coming back up, filling the gap. Couple are about a day and a half ago and thus far rejected below all major moving averages, even on a 12 hour. And, of course, on a daily as well as it stands. So if we. So so here’s how I can kind of break down a little bit. If we do take out the 30th of March as high, which was I think Monday or whatever day, it doesn’t matter, 30th March. This guy right here, about 66, 60. If we do take that out to the upside, I would look for an extension probably into those low seven thousand dollar numbers. Yes. Technically, we do have resistance right around 68 hundred ish region. So theoretically, I’d rather wait for like a, you know, a two hour or four hour deal to close above that region and then target to move towards seventy two to seventy three hundred each region. But it’s not really until we even get back above that hump. It even becomes, you know, in my immediate short term interpretation, I guess as to where that I’m going for anyways. While we are here on num-, on Sammies, we do CCMA. RSI is actually is a couple degrees more bearish than what we see on price on on spot price action. Significant hit embarrassed evidence here all the way back up to the 9th of March when again Bitcoin was around eight thousand bucks. And this chart again looks set, looks actually some of the reads more bearish than spot price action. And I do believe that Siamese are a lot more important. So again, short term price action. This can ebb and flow. Of course, we can get a nice we could get we could easily get a move up to seventy two to seventy under this region. But I I I I would look at that as an opportunity again and again. It’s not finished by some. I’m not found reviser, but I am just sharing my my exact thoughts on these situations as they come about for our looks like we’re kind of breaking down, rolling over once again for our looks like we’re probably popping back down at six thousand ish region low six thousand. And and I would kind of hold on to that idea as long as we are below sixty five fifty ish regions. So maybe now’s the time to get onto the lower term time frames. Let’s go back to let’s go back a bit Mexico. Mexico is kind of tipping over as well. What could this be. Momentum losing to the downside. Oh and is this the same trouble that we had plotted against already have it in there? Is this the same trend line that we have plotted out yesterday, providing the same resistance from the same last couple highs, ninetieth March 25th or 24th, March right here. And once again, on the 30th of March, I think it might just be. And I do think that this is likely going to end up back down in this. Bluebox Right here, some Bitcoin’s short Senate stint above the Bluebox Right and over here faded rather quickly. I think that this was that this cell right here was a front runner. This BLUEBOX And likely coming back down to the six thousand dollar mark, maybe been a little bit below this. Bluebox Right here. That’s where things get interesting once again. So let’s now start to start to break down the lower term time frames. Now there’s there’s a couple ways of doing this. I’m going to do this in the more conservative way because I think it’s just it’s appropriate in this region, even though I do think even though I do think you could probably. You could get aggressive traders who are going to be rewarded most likely. I didn’t say that. I didn’t say that. But Sabbar Hape, if we do take out either to last. Even the. Even taken out the last for hour low to the downside at 6 to 50, or especially for close even a two hour dollar below 60 to 50 ish region, the lower end of this. Bluebox And this is a more concerted way of doing it. I would target has moved down down around 50 950 ish region. I would look for another bounce of this guy. But remember, that is the lower bound that is that is actually gonna be below the lower bound of this rising channel support that we’ve been playing off of ever since our low riding over here on the 12th of March, which, by the way, doesn’t look right on a on a 4 hour. But we’ll look proper on a 2 hour right here. And for all the multiples of that siete, you know, if you know, if we do come back down, obviously to about 60, 150, we have another short term time frame bounce. Yes. Maybe I I don’t have a strong opinion on that. But I do think my strong opinions I’ll just be a short term time frame bounce as long as long as you remain below above 6, RSI below 60, 350. You know, I’d still I’d still say that that’s pressure down. And we’re likely to break this rising trend line right here as we come down to the next major blue bought or not even Major Bluebox, but like a medium time from relevant Bluebox again in the 59, we’ll just call it fifty nine hundred this region if, if and when we do break this one. I would look for a nice shouter in a price action all the way back down to fifty five hundred. Just reading. That’s going to be the weekly tour and it’s simple moving average, which probably does bounce it again as as indicated by this nice blue box. And it’s only because of the blue box at a bounce is not because of any other reason. No, of course not. This is this is not hocus pocus bullshit. It’s, um. It’s it’s while it’s. It’s just a nice area that generally people are gonna be betting on because of the nature of the tune. It’s simple on a weekly a lot of lotto, you know, a lot of the higher term time frame traders are just gonna have their balls now get set to buy it. But seeing as we haven’t haven’t necessarily broken this trend line just yet, initiated the measure moved from this rising channel, I would proverbially put it around where it could break if it does happen today. And that would still be pointing us down towards a little bit higher than before, but about 40 to 50 ish region on new lows. That would be interesting to me, though, and I do think that there’d be bounces along the way, perhaps universe it vs. along the way. But I’d be looking at this area right here, 55, I’d look at this area right here, 51, and I’d look at this area right here at 48, 14:00. And then and then assuming that those that that all those bounce temps fail, I would look for a full on return all the way back down here to 40 to 50. Why is that relevant? Well, because if we were to come all the way back down there, we likely would be creating bullish evidence on the daily by that point as the daily RSI got. So damn, I’m actually didn’t get mean. It got it got pretty low, to be fair, but it didn’t get into single digits, which very I don’t even think we’ve even seen or may. Maybe we have like a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Yeah, we did actually over here. This was November 2008. One of the most intense moves to the downside that we’ve seen in this baby anyways. So as it stands, you know, this right here to me is like your classic fuckin vertical move in a bear market usually going to be a usually gonna be a short squeeze. And I think that that’s what we’re seeing right here. The question to me, you know, D. The question that I’m deliberating on right now is do we get it? Do we get another move up to 70, 300, this region in tests there? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t. A strong opinion on that. I’ll leave a strong opinion if we break sixty eight hundred the upside, then we probably will get it. But I still look at it, you know, adds it as an opportunity. This is just this is like fucking picture perfect actually. Volume tailing off. We saw open interest go down the whole way as bitcoin hit that area from like 1.5 billion with a B to a little bit over 600 million now. And as price actually moves down from yesterday to today and all the moves down that we’ve seen, first thing that open interest go up. So that is just showing us that bears are where were were close their shorts, which likely caused this this rise right here. So a little bit of a short squeeze on top of that for the overleveraged late traders, late to the trade traders. And now we know as bears put back on their positions, once again, they are they are in full control and they are running things. And I fear that this is going to take a long time for the bitcoin holders out there, but doesn’t matter for Hotaling for life, because while it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter anyways, because, like, you’re just gonna hold onto it till death. You’re not gonna. Are you just gonna look at pics on your screen and stroke it? I don’t know. I don’t know. Anyways, I don’t understand that perspective. But if you are that person, if you are that person who is who who is hashtag Hoddle till I die, I’m curious to know why. Why? What’s what’s the purpose of that? If you’re not going to use it. And I sincerely mean that I’m not I’m not trying to be. What’s the word I’m looking for patronising or any or anything? I’m genuinely curious. What’s the allure to that sort of position or is there any sort of or is there any thought process behind it? I’m curious anyways. More importantly, if we do get them move back down to 40 to an honest region, then at that point we likely will be making some bullish evidence on the daily. Why is that significant? Well, because Bitcoin’s never bottomed ever, ever, ever, ever on a major macro market cycle or even a major move without having bullish evidence on, at the very least, a daily dollar timeframe. To put this in perspective, even on this major move right here. Markets like a low, but a major move nonetheless. Multi-thousand move, 4000 or move to be exact. We had pretty massive bullish evidence off the off the six six hundred number right here. We had three drives out here before 3000. Our move bearish divergence on the top right here. It works both ways and three drives a bullish divergence in 2018, 2019 on this. Thirty one hundred low for here. Several examples in twenty eighteen on all these failed rally attempts and we can go all the way back as well. But I would we’ve done this too many fucking times already now for the newer people here. Well that there’s a long term analysis video in it. Sorry. In the long term analysis playlist that you’re more than welcome to TiVo anyways. Okay. All righty. So what else do we want to look at? This video is already been twenty five minutes long. How does that even happen? I don’t know. But let’s go back down to lower term time frames and let’s start to look at probabilities with regards to these ranges. Let’s let’s keep in mind the range is once again. So here today’s a little bit of a different day, right? Because technically speaking, I have this blue box as the next medium time frame actionable point as well as this blue box to the upside, which has remained consistent at sixty eight hundred. I do, however, think that it would be you probably could be could be aggressive if bitcoin were to break sixty one hundred ish region or above the 30th of March is high at about sixty six fifty we’ll call it. So we’ll look at the probabilities of all these for the lower term time frames. But keep in mind that it’s really this guy right here and technically this guy right here that are the big ones. Then on the outside peripheries for the higher term time frames. Seventy three hundred region. And then of course, fifty five hunters can be our next major area to the downside, although. Well, I’d be skeptical of that one, too. Anyways, let’s just look at the probabilities as they are as this dance. And this is on a daily, by the way. This is on a daily. So we do see that the first tend to be Asian is coming in right around 60, 750 to the upside and sixty and fifty nine hundred to the downside. So that pretty much accurately gets those actionable points to begin with. I’m saying sixty eight hundred of the upside. So be a little bit outside the topside range and I’m saying fifty nine hundred. The downsides, I’ll be right on the edge of that precipice. So it’d be about a 16 percent chance of actually do close below the bottom trigger point for today. Now remember that Borton trigger point is a little bit more of a conservative estimate. I do think that you could accurately put that at 60 100 and probably be right anyways, giving you a twenty dollar leg up on that move. So that’s obviously gonna be well within those probabilities. If I had to do some mental math that I imagine it’s like twenty five percent, you know, which is which is which is high which, which is quite high by the same token to the upside it’s gonna be a little bit less than 16. It’s going to be more like less than 14, 13 percent if I had to guess. But we can actually do this exact as it is. So with regards to that, let’s go check him out. What’s. I think I’m on the wrong one, actually. Right now. Yep. Okay. All right. Where where are my panels go? Hey, where are my panels? I just. I must I must have ticked something off because I was just looking at this earlier. Perhaps perhaps this right here. Yeah. Should be right here at least. Yeah. We can do some some single sided targets. All right. So let’s check out this. Let’s check out this. And then where’s my goddamn panel? Where’s my panels? Whereas my panels. Let’s go to the downside I’m going to do. I’m gonna do six thousand. Just kind of like cut those two major areas to the to the middle. And let’s see, where is where the fuck is. Most definitely, sir. Sir, it should be here. I don’t I don’t have this. Mm hmm. It actually shows the probability, right, that that’s kind of cool. OK. I thought I thought that we’d have another pain there, but that’s OK. Yeah. Baldies actually been working on this quite a bit. So it is pretty damn cool to see. Anyways, it would suggest about no, that can’t that can’t be right because I’ll be a 4 percent four-person chancellery. And to the downside, after actually checking with him because for whatever reason we were just speaking before this video and it looks like my probability panel disappeared. Where? Hold on. It should show the it should show the position here. We got negative 40 and 100. Mm hmm. We’ll see what this one is and we’ll just put it right next to it. It’s a negative 10 and one. OK. So maybe if we do like negative 20, get a little bit close, then see if this works. Yeah. There it is. Oh, man. All right. Nice one anyways. OK. There we go. OK. And that makes a lot more sense. 30 if we do use six thousand our level at as kind of a mark to the middle for the downside, 30 percent chance. And this is by dates and clothes for the upside. I would still stick with 68 just because, you know, trend is against it right now. And bias is to the downside. So I’d rather be more conservative even though probably 66 50 does get it. But so let’s see here to the upside 60. Hold on. That can’t be right. Sixty eight. It’s using. Was it using a range? No. It should not be used in range. Yeah. It’s using single side right now. Just says that. OK, cool. That probably actually does not make sense. So I’m going to talk to Bolly again because I think I’m using the wrong inputs here. Should be on on on current time is 1. Okay. Prive little bit of talking to do. But maybe we could use a different R.F.. OK. I will arrive to prompt a wait for this one. But you know, we can still kind of eyeball it anyways just because the tops of the first aviation is coming in at sixty seven fifty. It’s gonna be less than a 60 percent chance, so probably around 13 percent anyways for the upside. So interesting off to kind of talk that one out. Let me just make sure that yeah. That that would not make sense. Or maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers here. No I don’t think so. Well I’ll figure this one out anyways anyways. OK, cool. So with that in mind, I do still think, you know, just just generically looking at that. It does look to me like we probably are angled for the downside here again, from a called probability standpoint and just offs from an underlying market dynamic standpoint, also from a structure standpoint. Also just from I again, I this is a very familiar move that we see quite often in Bear, you know, in these failed bear market rally. It’s just a very vertical move up and then momentum wanes anyways. Is this a good time to go? Let’s actually go check out CMBS right now as well. Here’s if there’s anything other else different on this. We’ll see how the money looks on this one. Obviously, the month looks like absolute dog shit, not the picture of health and fitness there now is it? Let’s go check out a two day to day. Still be held below the 10 simple looks like downwards pressure to me. And we could also use that as an actionable point as well. As long as the two day is below the 10 simple, I would not look for that next. That next shakeout to the upside. The next squeeze. The upside. Now, if we do close above the 10 simple Cixi, it’s basically at sixty five fifty sixty six six hundredths region. Then I would look for a retest of the twenty one. All the way. All the way. Currently it’s at around twenty five point eight, but I would match that about the time that actually does happen should be down around the seventy three candidates region. Now more importantly Death Cross is, is it’s actually technically not confirmed broadened over here just yet, but it is in the works, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the CMC moving averages on this heibel time frame just yet as it’s too new. It’s neat. It needs a couple more years of price action. I mean realistically, we haven’t even had the 200X measurement average here for too long. As you can see, just started in June. Twenty nineteen. But of course GAPPAH Gap boys rejoice because your gap’s going to be filled perhaps. And I’ll le I’ll leave that for the long term analysis fed video for right now. I think that that kind of accurately covers up all that I want to say in the lower term time frames looking at for our right here we have the same sort of trend line as you can imagine as well. I do believe that we’re seeing this aggressively turn down once again. Let’s go check. Ouch. Let’s go check out some of the other market leaders. Just just make sure that the market more or less agrees with itself. Beautiful. Certainly a degree, a degree, a degree more week as we do see this one just kind of floating aimlessly sideways, did not get the same sort of upward move that Bitcoin did. If this one does have another move, the upside, I’ll be looking for a move towards 1:43 in a quarter. But I think I think that they’ll likely still be a major opportunity. Well, much more so is turning down as price action fails to even get out of the neutral zone and is essentially hugging onto the lows. So that’s a. That looks like a Barasch reset to me. Same thing with daily RSI. This is not again. Or do we have an embarrassed evidence here? Just barely. Just barely. Attentively as president, but but just barely. If we take out yesterday’s low, then it will be confirmed, which is 130, spot 6:03. Perhaps press worth putting an alert there. In fact, I will add. Fuck it, I want you. But if that does happen, I’d look for a move back down to like 1:22 region. What about Mrs like win? How she doing as she’s about the same as β all. Maybe a little bit stronger, relatively speaking, but same thing here. Momentum also does turned down daily RSI. Do we have the same sort of potential had embarrassed divergence here? Kind of. Yes. Again, it looks like a bearish reset to me. Not not getting the same sort of strength as Bitcoin did on those last couple moves. The upside, but still hugging the lows. I mean, this is just this. This is what the chart actually looks like. Stop putting on logger minutes yet. You don’t need logarithmic scale anymore. We’ve had enough history in bitcoin. We’ve we’ve had enough history. Bitcoin now where linear scale I think is relevant, especially if you’re looking at any price action from like twenty seventeen to where we are right now. Maybe if you look at it before that prior to 2017, you might want log scale, but. But now now that Bitcoin’s been around for more than 10 years, we can use linear scale and you know, especially as the range kind of consolidates between this 3000 level and about about the ten thousand dollar level on average. OK, what else we want to look at? Let’s go look at spineless you a little more of a deep dive here. So last week I said that espied if Spike closes below the 2 and it’s simple and 200x Benjamin average, then I would not be bullish. I would be overall bearish looking for new lows. I don’t necessarily know when those new lows will come in, but I do believe that we likely will attempt to new lows and I still stick with that and I would be sticking with that, you know. Granted the same criteria as longs for closing weekly doulas, especially the one at Simple at 264 and a half. I do believe that that we’re going to come back down and test tests to 35 at the very least, and probably another small bounce there. And then and then and then we’ll kind of look it up, you know, look at it from there. But as it is right now, you know, pressure down here. Now, if we did close above the 2 an example, I’d look for a move perhaps all the way back up to like 285 region. But this is a very smart move to Bitcoin as well. Just a very vertical move off the lows. I can’t be bullish on this as long as long as even below the daily twenty one here on a closing basis, especially on an open and close basis that we have as we have seen, a couple of fake outs among the general market index indices. Well this one technically an ETF, but you know its tracks sbx. So you you already fucking know anyways. So yep. You know, I do think those one product does come back down to like five and then to 35 probably played another bounce there and then better hope that that one plays out back above 265. Otherwise new lows, maybe new lows. Same thing here as well. We’ve actually never had major lows put in without without bullish evidence. Not not at a daily but actually I believe on a weekly all mage, all all major lows have been have been put on on or actually. No, not all major lows have been put on for a for a what’s called a a weekly weekly bullish Everton’s. But market cycle lows have. Yeah. Going back to 2008 and going back to 2000, both major crashes. We do have phenomenal bullish divergence, at least two drives in some cases, three coming out of those markets. And if we go all the way back to eighty seven, which I don’t think we have enough price action history here for fuck. Yeah. If if only then I’d imagine that we proxy it there too. Not now. It make three times, but unfortunately due to the limitations of trading V we cannot see back that far. More importantly, you know, it’s still kind of holded with that. As long you know, as long as it’s working and we pay close monthly in yesterday as well and we close right below the 55. Just a just a just a dick hair below 55 on heavy volume on increasing volume, nonetheless. And is that is that indicative of capitulation there? Perhaps, yes. Per. You know you know, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit capitulation there, but dip in our 20s, he was back into the bearish control zone of this. That means that we also closed on new lows. No, sorry, we did not close on new lows as well. Okay. This one actually could still have a chance to bottom in the 235 ish region. It’s still a possibility, I suppose, but I’m not necessarily looking forward to it. Monthly’s Stoke’s have found all of their major lows, especially for this run right here at the edge of the bear. At the edge of the bullsh controls on eversince, all that going all the way back to 2008. So I do think that we probly come back down and test that region and put in a major low on it, as we have done right here, as we’ve done right here, as we’ve done right here and as we’ve done right here. All phenomenal buys post 2008. Do we come back down to that trend line again? I think I think yes, likely. And I also think that we’ll probly bounce on that one again. Here’s the counterpoint to that. We’ll just we’ll just pretend that that didn’t happen. I don’t wanna see a fucking global financial meltdown that would really suck. What else we want to look at? Look at gold. Gold. Coming back down at 50 90, as we said yesterday, was likely not a good month close here, actually. Really not a good month close. I do think they were going to come lower overall. I do think they were going to come down to like 15, 30, maybe play out another bounce there. But I’m not I’m not bullish and I’m not bearish on this one. I am. I am. I am short term. Short term. I’m bearish here. Short term embarrassment. I do think they are going to come back down like 15, 30 ish region long term. I am neutral ish with a slight bullish twist. Twist just because of the just because of trend, but a massive long legged D-O-G double right here. I still think that this is one of the more or one of the most healthiest charts in, you know, in just the general landscape, no matter what market that you’re looking at. And again, I’m not I’m not a fan of gold. I don’t really care about gold. But it is acting as what you’d expect a hedge to act as thus far. But this this is concerning that that close, very concerning from a moment, from all sort of perspective, I GSO think that. So I would still say that more, you know, more more likely to air on the side of bullishness here than bearishness, but anywhere, anywhere below about 15 hundred. And that goes out the window, especially below fourteen seventy five. That would be a very obvious, obvious swing filler pattern. And we’re gonna come all the way back down to like thirteen hundred at that point. Jesus Christ man I when I first thought of trading I saw this thing go all the way from like eighteen hundred down to down to 10 down eleven hundred right here. I traded Gilardi. I never traded actual export gold. In fact, I want to kind of check out what it’s doing right now. How’s this one operating? Yeah. Didn’t didn’t get as favorable as a close as a spot gold. Interesting. Still interesting still. But technically a little bit a little bit of bearish divergence in play between this point right here in this point right here. That is a little bit problematic. Not by a little bit. I mean quite a bit. So that would be the bearish view on this. But this is the ETF. You do want to be looking at spot gold for actual you know, for actual direction. I do think. Anyways, arm. Where to look at Japan. We are looked at Germany. Let’s go back to Bitcoin, cover this bitch up and send them off. And then it’s twitch time baby, which I forgot to talk about earlier. I’m going to be doing twitch and we’re going to be doing the. I’m going to be going for a new all time record. The record so far is a seven is a seven hour and seven minute stream. I’m going for eight hours, baby. I’m going for eight hours. And I think that that it can be done. You’re more the moment, Jonathan. Anyways, pick one right here. Put back on these. Put it back on. The blue boxes of death indicate no peace and prosperity. April fools, go fuck yourself. Just kidding. But but you know, it’s shaking out the last for our low. Probably even does this 6 to 50 or close in a two hour delta below. Let’s call it 6 to 50 as well. I would look for a move all the way back down to six fifty nine fifty six thousand ish region. Now, the Bluebox riding over here probably does have another short term time frame bounce. However, assuming that that bounce just doesn’t get back above, let’s call it 60, 350, this region right here. I will look for that bounce get sold into and then we can play out the actual downside coming all the way back down to the mid five thousands region. By the same token, if Bitcoin were to flip back around, take out the 30th of March high on on an aggressive take on about six six fifty or especially in more conservative way, closing for our dollars back above about sixty eight hundred ish region, then I would target to move all the way up to 70, choose any 300’s region. However, I think that that would just give us another or perhaps give me another. Nice, nice trade up. Nice trade setup right there. Again, this is never fun Tobiason about French Voser but I do like a lot of things that I’m seeing the mark right now from a trading perspective. So at the end of the day to be a trader, I do think as you’re not gonna be relying on the erratic moves and swings of this asset and instead can just enjoy the volatility as that is opportunity on and off. Now, I want to wish you all I want to wish everyone here a phenomenal day. It’s been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. And this very once had a conversation once again and again, Matt. You know, I see a lot of the I see a lot of the panic with with what’s going on the world right now. I found a lot of security and insult and solace in this community and just kind of like, you know, focusing on things that we can focus on and change and keep on working towards cultivating these skills of which I’m cultivating a skill and twitch right now, which I’m really excited about, and also trading as well. Keeping that keeping that short saw swords sharp can’t speak. And and that makes for a very fun journey. So, you know, during this time, I hoped, you know, I hope that we can all come together over that anyways. Like I said, I’m droning off a little bit too long now. Take care. And until next time.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/

[heatherrdavis1]

Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

I’m bullish me into my saddle, my son and my son. Let me let me see. Let me go to my side. Let me. Yeah. April Fools. How clever. How creative. Jesus Christ, man. Sorry about that. But you know, what about having three cups of coffee in the morning? Again, a little bit of bad news from the doctor. Well, why not have a little bit of a laugh on April Fool’s? Anyway, I want to wish everyone well on this nice Tuesday or Thursday. No, it’s. Oh, it’s Wednesday, actually. It’s Wednesday. Hey, happy. Have a happy 1/0 life. Wish you a happy Wednesday from actually a kind of bright and bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland, albeit cold as fuck. It will be snowing here relatively soon is what I hear as well. So plenty to talk about on that as we do have plenty to talk about on price action as well. The monthly clothes and also I believe a couple other times higher time frames causes as well. Really set in a long term bias here. So we have much to discuss their fault from yesit’s analysis and really focus on the higher term time frame stay. So with all of that said, I would like to wish you the best, the best and perhaps the happiest because I’ve been doing that for a while. Sorry, my bad. It is more important do that than really anything else, because why the fuck not, man? It probably helps. Or at least it doesn’t hurt anyways. More importantly, let’s go check about the Crown training application which can be found at Abdol Crown traini dot net. It’s free. Go take advantage of it. It is when I’m sent for you. So anyways. Well, also for me as well. I actually use scorches. We made it. In fact, I found that’s the best way to just go about life. Make stuff that you’re actually going to use and then other people might find it valuable as well. Anyways, once again, putting the big focus on the open interest for the global derivatives, we see open interest going up about $34 40 since yes, since we last spoke yesterday for about five hundred seventy five hundred eighty to six hundred, 620 million. As it is right now. And also seen that the bitcoin dominates. I go now more or less flat. Not really saying anything there. The crypto fear and Greed Index also more or less flat as well, albeit pretty damn low in the in the low teens right now. But then that the big focus is here on the open interests. We’re gonna Tientsin to the analysis once again. And my god man, this has really been a big missing piece for I feel like myself looking at open interest. But now that we finally been able to track this over time, we have a number and we’re gonna be having a chart coming soon. I’ve been getting a lot of questions on when the chart comes. Oh there. Which is another million added. What could it be? Oh, it’s all sales coming in right through here. Beautiful tie, but more importantly, we’re working on it. It’s gonna be in the next update. But due to, well, the whole world situation, everything. Some of the updates have been pushed back a little bit just because well, it’s you know, there’s a whole global pandemic going on right now. So with regards to that open interest going up, price action. Well, let’s go see. Let’s go see what happened over here. Definitely went up. Right. Right. Right. Fuck, God damn it, man. Price action going down again. We see open interest going up, price action going down, volume having a little bit of a spike spike here. But we’re still caught in the context of the greater formations. So if what we need low term time frame is actually go back up here to the daily. And what do we know? The daily is still being held below the yellow 21 Ispent for average. Now, I just want to do a very small aside right here. This is incredibly similar to what we’re seeing on interest marks right here from a daily closing bases. We see a death cross. We see the 20 month extension on average so far rejecting price action. And this is consistent with all major all major markets. We see Japan riding over here. Same thing happened. Continuation. Oh, could that mean something? We see Germany doing about the same thing yesterday, still being rejected. But, well, I wouldn’t necessarily call this rejection, but still being held below below the 21. And with Japan kind of leading the way right now, I do believe that Bitcoin is a likely setting up for a relatively similar move. Probably put them back down below the six thousand dollar region. I see a lot of very bullish people in this market. I see a lot of very bearish people as well. So it is interesting because I do feel like our reads on sentiment in this community are probably not very consistent with the general sentiment of the market. But I do try to I do try to do my rounds of crypto Twitter and crypto YouTube just kind of kept catch up and does seem to me that most people are still kind of looking at this as likely to go back up to 8000 anyways. More importantly than that, we need to focus on the tangible things, not the intangible like bullshit that well, everyone’s book. It’s like who’s everyone in? And if and if everyone’s bullish and you’re in, you’re in, you’re the only bearish one. Then what does that even mean? I mean, I don’t know. Managers. It seems like an ego thing to me anyways, but it is it is insane nonetheless. Anyways, looking at this right here, I still stick with with with what I’ve been saying for the last few days or the last like week or so, that as long as you’re below the 21, I’ve been to an average special on an open and closed basis, but even on just a closing basis as well. I am I’m not bullish here and there’s no April Fool’s about this. I am looking at this as more or less a problem, but most likely come back down. Looking at the way that the monthy closed Miss Day Night, I do believe that we closed well below the 20 next month on average, as that’s all the way at Sony 300 ish region and hold up. Jesus Christ, man. Looks like there’s some weird things going on like Peter right over there. But more importantly, we do see that we have actually crashed or not crash, but a crack down below the 20 minutes Benjamin was on a confirmed month closing basis. So let’s. I once spend a lot of time here on the monthly, as is what say so first and foremost, as long as we are below the monthy 21 expensive inhabitants, yellow moon damage right here from a long term basis, I am not bullish at all whatsoever. In fact, the better term would be bearish. I’m looking for more downside. You can see that in Bitcoin’s history, especially go to be Aleksa next. The longest running exchange or their longest running price action is an exchange, obviously, but a trend that we’ve broken below the 20 minutes to an average. Well, that’s been deathand a K for bitcoin back over here in 2014 2015. More recently in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. And now we have it yet again in twenty. So this is something that I use in traditional markets when I was a market maker, authorized trade on the floor of AKA which I would judge a stock if it was generally bullish or gently bearish over the long term. If it’s above the 21 gently bullish blow, generally bearish works were works better with more mature assets. But now that Bitcoin’s, you know, a little bit over 10 years old, I think that it has just enough time on it for this to work. And more importantly, we have a series of efficacious signals given frontin from it. So my general my general view for the long term is I am not bullish at all whatsoever on bitcoin price action. As long as we are below that region, especially on a monthly closing basis, doesn’t mean that we can’t come back up and test it. In fact, I think that that is that that that could very easily happen now, too. But I would probably be looking at that as likely an opportunity for a counter-trend position or sorry kind of position to that move. More importantly, I think that we can now say that it would be very, very, very, very, very unlikely for Bitcoin market to be back up to 8000 or above 8000 in this, at least in the six month price action. And when we look at so much Mazur’s, which actually it’s look at the new ones right here, because down one has an updated just yet. We do see monthy stokes nosediving and more importantly, gaining momentum to the downside ratio right over here to getting reject from the bullsh controls on. Don’t like that. It’s check out monthly RSI. This one also problematic, but we didn’t actually take as big of a nosedive as I would expected here. So more importantly with the month, the RSI, well, it’s generally not a strong read or anything like that. We are still below the expansion. That exponential is working its way down to the neutral zone, although still gonna take a few months to get to get there, actually. But more importantly, if we if if we actually do test around the Barasch controls on, once again, my big fear here is that we bounce on this one, two, three, four times the fifth time and and in each subsequent try after that gets weaker and weaker. And the problem with this is, is that while we’re on the fifth time now, if we do actually come back down and test it. So if Bitcoin does break to the break to the south side, let’s call it below 5000. Now, that will likely bring monthly RSI below the bearish controls on. And I do believe that if that were to happen again, we’d very likely spend some time in there like prolonged time. We’ve we’ve had too many warm welcomes and and rejections from that region thus far. That really, really concerns me from a long term perspective. Again, if we do get back down around there. But as you know, as it is right now, it’s not necessarily there. But with the way that all well, with the way that the monthly trend is quite literally down, we literally have a monthly downtrend. We have high, low or high, low, low or high. And well, while we haven’t necessarily made a lower low just yet, I suppose that’s the game that we get to play this month. Are we setting in a higher low or a lower low if we set in a lower low, obviously below 30, 300. We are in for our first monthly are for well, not not a first monthly downturn, but a likely a very long downtrend. And that’s at the point where I’d say Bitcoin probably not can be talking about popping back up to the 5 digits, at least for a few years. So, you know, still there is a little bit of hope and left for the long term. Just don’t want to see a monthly close below our last major low right here at about thirty three hundred thirty five hundred depending upon where you’re kind of measuring it from. But but you know, that gives us the big bad range right here. We’re currently trading about, you know, 2x from that region anyways. Also, the monthly rounds of the accumulation dissipation indicated the net delta indicator. Once again, we are still maintaining this negative slope and the slope of this indicator has accurately gone in pretty much all of the market cycles in Bitcoin’s history. Pretty damn right. So with this remaining negative or is or what I should say, it’s just a downward slope is also, of course not good. But as we’ve seen in the past, you know you know, do we have sharp, sharp turns every once in a while? Yes, we do. But there should be adequate warning before the next major low is put in to put this in perspective. The last time that we had a slope change, will, you know, obviously we got the one to the downside right here in January. But I just want to show that when the slope changes, we typically spend at least one month within that range still and then turn around. So so it needs a slope change. And then next month, continuation boom. There you have a long term reversal. You know, you know, as of recently, what we saw in January 20. But what I really want to focus on here is actually the last major low that we put in in January twenty nineteen at about thirty one hundred ish region right here. So the slope changes from January to February and then it just floats way back upwards and onwards. The reason why that is, is it’s significant here is because again it gives you a little bit of time, you know, while that changes around. And the obvious, you know, obviously the general trend fall is to massively to the upside soon after that. So, you know, even even with a little bit of patience here and not getting in at the exact low at thirty three hundred, but getting in maybe a little bit higher at about thirty nine hundred, this region, which I think is pretty damn reasonable, the hopes not soon after that we do see a move all the way up to about 10000 or more really like 14000 bucks. So I just want to show that, you know, long term this is a slow moving freight train. But once it gets going, you know that, you know, those are the fun times. So could that happen here? Yes, it could happen. Could we you know, could we see a slope change on the next one, perhaps? Yes. But even then, I wouldn’t just jump right in, because as we did say, you know, it’s going to it’s going to likely take some time to reverse itself. Now, we do have a trend line forming here, to be fair. How do you know how? You know, just to touch to make a trend. No, it does not. But if we do see this next touch, actually, it’s actually turned around the slope coming in to what’s the month after April, May, June. Now, May, May. It’s May. I think it’s May, at least, anyway. It doesn’t matter what month it is just the next month after whatever fucking month that we’re in right now. Since this one doesn’t matter either, time is an arbitrary concept. If we do see this turn back around, then that should be a good signal as well. But for right now, and at least for the foreseeable future, I am overall bearish and I have no real reason be bullish on this price action. I understand that people do want to be a bulls out there and more power to you, but for the traders out there. Well, that is a monthly, obviously not the most bullish look. And then we come back down to the two day, which is, you know, which is which I do consider a higher timeframe on bitcoin. And what do we see here? The same sort of death cross that we’ve been looking at for the last the last few ticks. And what, you know, we just got another tick confirmed, I believe, yesterday. Let me just confirm. Yes. Actually, no, sorry, it did. This was a day before. But we will be confirming this next tick tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. And again, same thing here as well. We can recap rally all the way back up to the 21 X Benjamin average chest around Sony 50ish region. I think that that would be completely fine even. But I’m still bearish as long as we’re below the yellow 20 Max Benjamin average. And more importantly, we have the death cross, which is now starting to get a little bit of divergence away from each other on those two major move, never just right there. So what does that mean, long term? Well, long term, we have a very good relationship between the death cross moving averages and then and then essentially the 2010 expense. We haven’t you could say to a lesser extent the 10 simple, but. Well, we’ll kind of avoid that topic for right now, just for ease of conversation. Anyways, anytime that we’ve got the Death Cross or the Golden Cross and then price action gets on the same side as a 21 as that cross, that’s when we have big bad moves back on over here. We do see that we got the Golden Cross doing this consolidation about 7000 bucks. Bitcoin comes back down, tests 21. Nice, nice buy right there. A couple of times actually. Right here, right here, right here. And then a 2x 2p from seven thousand to fourteen thousand assuming that you bought on that region back in twenty eighteen very somewhere. Very some other Asian ship. Right. And over here as well gets a death cross late in September or late in 2018. Then we slowly but surely get ground down below the yellow. Twenty one expense for average. Now here’s the thing. Now we do get a couple of closes above, but it’s about on an open and closing basis. So you see that there’s no opens and closes above that region. And then once it gets below the twenty one, we are trending down and we are trending down pretty fucking hard all the way from top to bottom, about 52 percent move going all the way back before that. For our next example, or obviously this one is a beautiful one, going back to 2015, going all the way from like 250 bucks to 15 big. A big number, a big number like 20000 prefs. And then 2014, we had another death cross as well. Happy. And over here do play out that trend a little bit because the cross was so far away. It wasn’t really that big of a deal. And I do think that we could have something similar like this pop back up where we do see another another shakeout or another bull trap backup to the 55 or 200. But assuming that, you know, we’re still we’re still remaining below that on a closing basis, I’d expect some like this to kind of curl back on over. And then as soon as we get back down below the 20 when I speak to an average again. Well, well, this looks familiar now doesn’t hey. No, it doesn’t, because I don’t have my drawn two up, maybe about a nice on a closing basis, 55 percent on a week basis. Obviously a lot more than that. But I’m more in certain closing based right now. So, you know, looking at price action right here, you know, could we have another rally backed up to, you know, into the low of seven thousand? I think that’s possible. But there’s a lot of overhead resistance in its way. So I wouldn’t be looking for any sort of a major move into the $8000 region. I do think it’s possible we could have a move to 7000 bucks, but I’d look at that again as an opportunity. And this is not finished by not venture Voser. And of course, you know, when it comes to technical analysis, we are only using statistics in our favor over time. That is that is likely to to to produce a net positive result. But that does mean that every time is gonna work out. But I do like. The setup’s here and it’s good enough for me to put on risk if I do get that opportunity. Also looking at 2 a.m., much more serious we see to day. Stokes So I need to curl around a little bit. They start to get a little bit tired here as they approach the edge of the bears controls on which typically you are going to see some countertrend pressure at meshe you get rid of this right here. It’s not relevant to what we’re talking about now. And then we also have some well, actually we know we don’t have any hidden embellished evidence here or should I say continuation Everton’s. We certainly do, however, have it on the daily all the way back up to its eight thousand. No idea. So that’s gonna be in the charts as long as you know, as long as we’re below essentially like a what is this like eighty one hundred. Notes. It’s, it’s actually about seventy nine fifty ish regions. So on a daily plosive basis that’s always gonna be a consideration there. Not only that, we do see daily Stoke’s Curlin back down rejection, the bullet control zone and Gameau much to the downside. Not good. Not good at all. Also, we do see daily RSI reject from getting out the Barash controls on thusfar. Although this could this this this is probably the biggest hoping I’m right here. We do actually have an inverted head and shoulders on daily RSI and I put a lot more weight on formations in RSI than I do on price action, especially when it comes to the inverted head and should the head and shoulders variety. See? Yeah. You know, if we did break back above the neutral zone, above the 50 marker right here, I would look for this to play out. But until that happens, it still pressure down sooner rather than later. Again, that does still tie in to the higher term time frame buys. Remember that this can take a long time to play out. So, you know, if if we did play that out, I’d look for that move. Like, I don’t know. Seventy three hundred ish region, we’ll call it. And then I’d look for a quick rejection most likely as well. And then for all the higher term time frames to start to take on over again. Let’s go check out the twelve hour with a twelve hour two and twelve hour. Stoke’s actually did point north and did cross up on the last tick. However, here’s the thing. I think that this is likely to turn into a fake out. The reason why is because if we go over here to see CMBS, we see something completely different. And the CNE stokes in the CMB indicators in general have just been significantly more accurate than spot price action. And we got plenty of room here, plenty of room to the downside. And if we look at CMA charts right here, there’s some great symmetry here with coming back up, filling the gap. Couple are about a day and a half ago and thus far rejected below all major moving averages, even on a 12 hour. And, of course, on a daily as well as it stands. So if we. So so here’s how I can kind of break down a little bit. If we do take out the 30th of March as high, which was I think Monday or whatever day, it doesn’t matter, 30th March. This guy right here, about 66, 60. If we do take that out to the upside, I would look for an extension probably into those low seven thousand dollar numbers. Yes. Technically, we do have resistance right around 68 hundred ish region. So theoretically, I’d rather wait for like a, you know, a two hour or four hour deal to close above that region and then target to move towards seventy two to seventy three hundred each region. But it’s not really until we even get back above that hump. It even becomes, you know, in my immediate short term interpretation, I guess as to where that I’m going for anyways. While we are here on num-, on Sammies, we do CCMA. RSI is actually is a couple degrees more bearish than what we see on price on on spot price action. Significant hit embarrassed evidence here all the way back up to the 9th of March when again Bitcoin was around eight thousand bucks. And this chart again looks set, looks actually some of the reads more bearish than spot price action. And I do believe that Siamese are a lot more important. So again, short term price action. This can ebb and flow. Of course, we can get a nice we could get we could easily get a move up to seventy two to seventy under this region. But I I I I would look at that as an opportunity again and again. It’s not finished by some. I’m not found reviser, but I am just sharing my my exact thoughts on these situations as they come about for our looks like we’re kind of breaking down, rolling over once again for our looks like we’re probably popping back down at six thousand ish region low six thousand. And and I would kind of hold on to that idea as long as we are below sixty five fifty ish regions. So maybe now’s the time to get onto the lower term time frames. Let’s go back to let’s go back a bit Mexico. Mexico is kind of tipping over as well. What could this be. Momentum losing to the downside. Oh and is this the same trouble that we had plotted against already have it in there? Is this the same trend line that we have plotted out yesterday, providing the same resistance from the same last couple highs, ninetieth March 25th or 24th, March right here. And once again, on the 30th of March, I think it might just be. And I do think that this is likely going to end up back down in this. Bluebox Right here, some Bitcoin’s short Senate stint above the Bluebox Right and over here faded rather quickly. I think that this was that this cell right here was a front runner. This BLUEBOX And likely coming back down to the six thousand dollar mark, maybe been a little bit below this. Bluebox Right here. That’s where things get interesting once again. So let’s now start to start to break down the lower term time frames. Now there’s there’s a couple ways of doing this. I’m going to do this in the more conservative way because I think it’s just it’s appropriate in this region, even though I do think even though I do think you could probably. You could get aggressive traders who are going to be rewarded most likely. I didn’t say that. I didn’t say that. But Sabbar Hape, if we do take out either to last. Even the. Even taken out the last for hour low to the downside at 6 to 50, or especially for close even a two hour dollar below 60 to 50 ish region, the lower end of this. Bluebox And this is a more concerted way of doing it. I would target has moved down down around 50 950 ish region. I would look for another bounce of this guy. But remember, that is the lower bound that is that is actually gonna be below the lower bound of this rising channel support that we’ve been playing off of ever since our low riding over here on the 12th of March, which, by the way, doesn’t look right on a on a 4 hour. But we’ll look proper on a 2 hour right here. And for all the multiples of that siete, you know, if you know, if we do come back down, obviously to about 60, 150, we have another short term time frame bounce. Yes. Maybe I I don’t have a strong opinion on that. But I do think my strong opinions I’ll just be a short term time frame bounce as long as long as you remain below above 6, RSI below 60, 350. You know, I’d still I’d still say that that’s pressure down. And we’re likely to break this rising trend line right here as we come down to the next major blue bought or not even Major Bluebox, but like a medium time from relevant Bluebox again in the 59, we’ll just call it fifty nine hundred this region if, if and when we do break this one. I would look for a nice shouter in a price action all the way back down to fifty five hundred. Just reading. That’s going to be the weekly tour and it’s simple moving average, which probably does bounce it again as as indicated by this nice blue box. And it’s only because of the blue box at a bounce is not because of any other reason. No, of course not. This is this is not hocus pocus bullshit. It’s, um. It’s it’s while it’s. It’s just a nice area that generally people are gonna be betting on because of the nature of the tune. It’s simple on a weekly a lot of lotto, you know, a lot of the higher term time frame traders are just gonna have their balls now get set to buy it. But seeing as we haven’t haven’t necessarily broken this trend line just yet, initiated the measure moved from this rising channel, I would proverbially put it around where it could break if it does happen today. And that would still be pointing us down towards a little bit higher than before, but about 40 to 50 ish region on new lows. That would be interesting to me, though, and I do think that there’d be bounces along the way, perhaps universe it vs. along the way. But I’d be looking at this area right here, 55, I’d look at this area right here, 51, and I’d look at this area right here at 48, 14:00. And then and then assuming that those that that all those bounce temps fail, I would look for a full on return all the way back down here to 40 to 50. Why is that relevant? Well, because if we were to come all the way back down there, we likely would be creating bullish evidence on the daily by that point as the daily RSI got. So damn, I’m actually didn’t get mean. It got it got pretty low, to be fair, but it didn’t get into single digits, which very I don’t even think we’ve even seen or may. Maybe we have like a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Yeah, we did actually over here. This was November 2008. One of the most intense moves to the downside that we’ve seen in this baby anyways. So as it stands, you know, this right here to me is like your classic fuckin vertical move in a bear market usually going to be a usually gonna be a short squeeze. And I think that that’s what we’re seeing right here. The question to me, you know, D. The question that I’m deliberating on right now is do we get it? Do we get another move up to 70, 300, this region in tests there? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t. A strong opinion on that. I’ll leave a strong opinion if we break sixty eight hundred the upside, then we probably will get it. But I still look at it, you know, adds it as an opportunity. This is just this is like fucking picture perfect actually. Volume tailing off. We saw open interest go down the whole way as bitcoin hit that area from like 1.5 billion with a B to a little bit over 600 million now. And as price actually moves down from yesterday to today and all the moves down that we’ve seen, first thing that open interest go up. So that is just showing us that bears are where were were close their shorts, which likely caused this this rise right here. So a little bit of a short squeeze on top of that for the overleveraged late traders, late to the trade traders. And now we know as bears put back on their positions, once again, they are they are in full control and they are running things. And I fear that this is going to take a long time for the bitcoin holders out there, but doesn’t matter for Hotaling for life, because while it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter anyways, because, like, you’re just gonna hold onto it till death. You’re not gonna. Are you just gonna look at pics on your screen and stroke it? I don’t know. I don’t know. Anyways, I don’t understand that perspective. But if you are that person, if you are that person who is who who is hashtag Hoddle till I die, I’m curious to know why. Why? What’s what’s the purpose of that? If you’re not going to use it. And I sincerely mean that I’m not I’m not trying to be. What’s the word I’m looking for patronising or any or anything? I’m genuinely curious. What’s the allure to that sort of position or is there any sort of or is there any thought process behind it? I’m curious anyways. More importantly, if we do get them move back down to 40 to an honest region, then at that point we likely will be making some bullish evidence on the daily. Why is that significant? Well, because Bitcoin’s never bottomed ever, ever, ever, ever on a major macro market cycle or even a major move without having bullish evidence on, at the very least, a daily dollar timeframe. To put this in perspective, even on this major move right here. Markets like a low, but a major move nonetheless. Multi-thousand move, 4000 or move to be exact. We had pretty massive bullish evidence off the off the six six hundred number right here. We had three drives out here before 3000. Our move bearish divergence on the top right here. It works both ways and three drives a bullish divergence in 2018, 2019 on this. Thirty one hundred low for here. Several examples in twenty eighteen on all these failed rally attempts and we can go all the way back as well. But I would we’ve done this too many fucking times already now for the newer people here. Well that there’s a long term analysis video in it. Sorry. In the long term analysis playlist that you’re more than welcome to TiVo anyways. Okay. All righty. So what else do we want to look at? This video is already been twenty five minutes long. How does that even happen? I don’t know. But let’s go back down to lower term time frames and let’s start to look at probabilities with regards to these ranges. Let’s let’s keep in mind the range is once again. So here today’s a little bit of a different day, right? Because technically speaking, I have this blue box as the next medium time frame actionable point as well as this blue box to the upside, which has remained consistent at sixty eight hundred. I do, however, think that it would be you probably could be could be aggressive if bitcoin were to break sixty one hundred ish region or above the 30th of March is high at about sixty six fifty we’ll call it. So we’ll look at the probabilities of all these for the lower term time frames. But keep in mind that it’s really this guy right here and technically this guy right here that are the big ones. Then on the outside peripheries for the higher term time frames. Seventy three hundred region. And then of course, fifty five hunters can be our next major area to the downside, although. Well, I’d be skeptical of that one, too. Anyways, let’s just look at the probabilities as they are as this dance. And this is on a daily, by the way. This is on a daily. So we do see that the first tend to be Asian is coming in right around 60, 750 to the upside and sixty and fifty nine hundred to the downside. So that pretty much accurately gets those actionable points to begin with. I’m saying sixty eight hundred of the upside. So be a little bit outside the topside range and I’m saying fifty nine hundred. The downsides, I’ll be right on the edge of that precipice. So it’d be about a 16 percent chance of actually do close below the bottom trigger point for today. Now remember that Borton trigger point is a little bit more of a conservative estimate. I do think that you could accurately put that at 60 100 and probably be right anyways, giving you a twenty dollar leg up on that move. So that’s obviously gonna be well within those probabilities. If I had to do some mental math that I imagine it’s like twenty five percent, you know, which is which is which is high which, which is quite high by the same token to the upside it’s gonna be a little bit less than 16. It’s going to be more like less than 14, 13 percent if I had to guess. But we can actually do this exact as it is. So with regards to that, let’s go check him out. What’s. I think I’m on the wrong one, actually. Right now. Yep. Okay. All right. Where where are my panels go? Hey, where are my panels? I just. I must I must have ticked something off because I was just looking at this earlier. Perhaps perhaps this right here. Yeah. Should be right here at least. Yeah. We can do some some single sided targets. All right. So let’s check out this. Let’s check out this. And then where’s my goddamn panel? Where’s my panels? Whereas my panels. Let’s go to the downside I’m going to do. I’m gonna do six thousand. Just kind of like cut those two major areas to the to the middle. And let’s see, where is where the fuck is. Most definitely, sir. Sir, it should be here. I don’t I don’t have this. Mm hmm. It actually shows the probability, right, that that’s kind of cool. OK. I thought I thought that we’d have another pain there, but that’s OK. Yeah. Baldies actually been working on this quite a bit. So it is pretty damn cool to see. Anyways, it would suggest about no, that can’t that can’t be right because I’ll be a 4 percent four-person chancellery. And to the downside, after actually checking with him because for whatever reason we were just speaking before this video and it looks like my probability panel disappeared. Where? Hold on. It should show the it should show the position here. We got negative 40 and 100. Mm hmm. We’ll see what this one is and we’ll just put it right next to it. It’s a negative 10 and one. OK. So maybe if we do like negative 20, get a little bit close, then see if this works. Yeah. There it is. Oh, man. All right. Nice one anyways. OK. There we go. OK. And that makes a lot more sense. 30 if we do use six thousand our level at as kind of a mark to the middle for the downside, 30 percent chance. And this is by dates and clothes for the upside. I would still stick with 68 just because, you know, trend is against it right now. And bias is to the downside. So I’d rather be more conservative even though probably 66 50 does get it. But so let’s see here to the upside 60. Hold on. That can’t be right. Sixty eight. It’s using. Was it using a range? No. It should not be used in range. Yeah. It’s using single side right now. Just says that. OK, cool. That probably actually does not make sense. So I’m going to talk to Bolly again because I think I’m using the wrong inputs here. Should be on on on current time is 1. Okay. Prive little bit of talking to do. But maybe we could use a different R.F.. OK. I will arrive to prompt a wait for this one. But you know, we can still kind of eyeball it anyways just because the tops of the first aviation is coming in at sixty seven fifty. It’s gonna be less than a 60 percent chance, so probably around 13 percent anyways for the upside. So interesting off to kind of talk that one out. Let me just make sure that yeah. That that would not make sense. Or maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers here. No I don’t think so. Well I’ll figure this one out anyways anyways. OK, cool. So with that in mind, I do still think, you know, just just generically looking at that. It does look to me like we probably are angled for the downside here again, from a called probability standpoint and just offs from an underlying market dynamic standpoint, also from a structure standpoint. Also just from I again, I this is a very familiar move that we see quite often in Bear, you know, in these failed bear market rally. It’s just a very vertical move up and then momentum wanes anyways. Is this a good time to go? Let’s actually go check out CMBS right now as well. Here’s if there’s anything other else different on this. We’ll see how the money looks on this one. Obviously, the month looks like absolute dog shit, not the picture of health and fitness there now is it? Let’s go check out a two day to day. Still be held below the 10 simple looks like downwards pressure to me. And we could also use that as an actionable point as well. As long as the two day is below the 10 simple, I would not look for that next. That next shakeout to the upside. The next squeeze. The upside. Now, if we do close above the 10 simple Cixi, it’s basically at sixty five fifty sixty six six hundredths region. Then I would look for a retest of the twenty one. All the way. All the way. Currently it’s at around twenty five point eight, but I would match that about the time that actually does happen should be down around the seventy three candidates region. Now more importantly Death Cross is, is it’s actually technically not confirmed broadened over here just yet, but it is in the works, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the CMC moving averages on this heibel time frame just yet as it’s too new. It’s neat. It needs a couple more years of price action. I mean realistically, we haven’t even had the 200X measurement average here for too long. As you can see, just started in June. Twenty nineteen. But of course GAPPAH Gap boys rejoice because your gap’s going to be filled perhaps. And I’ll le I’ll leave that for the long term analysis fed video for right now. I think that that kind of accurately covers up all that I want to say in the lower term time frames looking at for our right here we have the same sort of trend line as you can imagine as well. I do believe that we’re seeing this aggressively turn down once again. Let’s go check. Ouch. Let’s go check out some of the other market leaders. Just just make sure that the market more or less agrees with itself. Beautiful. Certainly a degree, a degree, a degree more week as we do see this one just kind of floating aimlessly sideways, did not get the same sort of upward move that Bitcoin did. If this one does have another move, the upside, I’ll be looking for a move towards 1:43 in a quarter. But I think I think that they’ll likely still be a major opportunity. Well, much more so is turning down as price action fails to even get out of the neutral zone and is essentially hugging onto the lows. So that’s a. That looks like a Barasch reset to me. Same thing with daily RSI. This is not again. Or do we have an embarrassed evidence here? Just barely. Just barely. Attentively as president, but but just barely. If we take out yesterday’s low, then it will be confirmed, which is 130, spot 6:03. Perhaps press worth putting an alert there. In fact, I will add. Fuck it, I want you. But if that does happen, I’d look for a move back down to like 1:22 region. What about Mrs like win? How she doing as she’s about the same as β all. Maybe a little bit stronger, relatively speaking, but same thing here. Momentum also does turned down daily RSI. Do we have the same sort of potential had embarrassed divergence here? Kind of. Yes. Again, it looks like a bearish reset to me. Not not getting the same sort of strength as Bitcoin did on those last couple moves. The upside, but still hugging the lows. I mean, this is just this. This is what the chart actually looks like. Stop putting on logger minutes yet. You don’t need logarithmic scale anymore. We’ve had enough history in bitcoin. We’ve we’ve had enough history. Bitcoin now where linear scale I think is relevant, especially if you’re looking at any price action from like twenty seventeen to where we are right now. Maybe if you look at it before that prior to 2017, you might want log scale, but. But now now that Bitcoin’s been around for more than 10 years, we can use linear scale and you know, especially as the range kind of consolidates between this 3000 level and about about the ten thousand dollar level on average. OK, what else we want to look at? Let’s go look at spineless you a little more of a deep dive here. So last week I said that espied if Spike closes below the 2 and it’s simple and 200x Benjamin average, then I would not be bullish. I would be overall bearish looking for new lows. I don’t necessarily know when those new lows will come in, but I do believe that we likely will attempt to new lows and I still stick with that and I would be sticking with that, you know. Granted the same criteria as longs for closing weekly doulas, especially the one at Simple at 264 and a half. I do believe that that we’re going to come back down and test tests to 35 at the very least, and probably another small bounce there. And then and then and then we’ll kind of look it up, you know, look at it from there. But as it is right now, you know, pressure down here. Now, if we did close above the 2 an example, I’d look for a move perhaps all the way back up to like 285 region. But this is a very smart move to Bitcoin as well. Just a very vertical move off the lows. I can’t be bullish on this as long as long as even below the daily twenty one here on a closing basis, especially on an open and close basis that we have as we have seen, a couple of fake outs among the general market index indices. Well this one technically an ETF, but you know its tracks sbx. So you you already fucking know anyways. So yep. You know, I do think those one product does come back down to like five and then to 35 probably played another bounce there and then better hope that that one plays out back above 265. Otherwise new lows, maybe new lows. Same thing here as well. We’ve actually never had major lows put in without without bullish evidence. Not not at a daily but actually I believe on a weekly all mage, all all major lows have been have been put on on or actually. No, not all major lows have been put on for a for a what’s called a a weekly weekly bullish Everton’s. But market cycle lows have. Yeah. Going back to 2008 and going back to 2000, both major crashes. We do have phenomenal bullish divergence, at least two drives in some cases, three coming out of those markets. And if we go all the way back to eighty seven, which I don’t think we have enough price action history here for fuck. Yeah. If if only then I’d imagine that we proxy it there too. Not now. It make three times, but unfortunately due to the limitations of trading V we cannot see back that far. More importantly, you know, it’s still kind of holded with that. As long you know, as long as it’s working and we pay close monthly in yesterday as well and we close right below the 55. Just a just a just a dick hair below 55 on heavy volume on increasing volume, nonetheless. And is that is that indicative of capitulation there? Perhaps, yes. Per. You know you know, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit capitulation there, but dip in our 20s, he was back into the bearish control zone of this. That means that we also closed on new lows. No, sorry, we did not close on new lows as well. Okay. This one actually could still have a chance to bottom in the 235 ish region. It’s still a possibility, I suppose, but I’m not necessarily looking forward to it. Monthly’s Stoke’s have found all of their major lows, especially for this run right here at the edge of the bear. At the edge of the bullsh controls on eversince, all that going all the way back to 2008. So I do think that we probly come back down and test that region and put in a major low on it, as we have done right here, as we’ve done right here, as we’ve done right here and as we’ve done right here. All phenomenal buys post 2008. Do we come back down to that trend line again? I think I think yes, likely. And I also think that we’ll probly bounce on that one again. Here’s the counterpoint to that. We’ll just we’ll just pretend that that didn’t happen. I don’t wanna see a fucking global financial meltdown that would really suck. What else we want to look at? Look at gold. Gold. Coming back down at 50 90, as we said yesterday, was likely not a good month close here, actually. Really not a good month close. I do think they were going to come lower overall. I do think they were going to come down to like 15, 30, maybe play out another bounce there. But I’m not I’m not bullish and I’m not bearish on this one. I am. I am. I am short term. Short term. I’m bearish here. Short term embarrassment. I do think they are going to come back down like 15, 30 ish region long term. I am neutral ish with a slight bullish twist. Twist just because of the just because of trend, but a massive long legged D-O-G double right here. I still think that this is one of the more or one of the most healthiest charts in, you know, in just the general landscape, no matter what market that you’re looking at. And again, I’m not I’m not a fan of gold. I don’t really care about gold. But it is acting as what you’d expect a hedge to act as thus far. But this this is concerning that that close, very concerning from a moment, from all sort of perspective, I GSO think that. So I would still say that more, you know, more more likely to air on the side of bullishness here than bearishness, but anywhere, anywhere below about 15 hundred. And that goes out the window, especially below fourteen seventy five. That would be a very obvious, obvious swing filler pattern. And we’re gonna come all the way back down to like thirteen hundred at that point. Jesus Christ man I when I first thought of trading I saw this thing go all the way from like eighteen hundred down to down to 10 down eleven hundred right here. I traded Gilardi. I never traded actual export gold. In fact, I want to kind of check out what it’s doing right now. How’s this one operating? Yeah. Didn’t didn’t get as favorable as a close as a spot gold. Interesting. Still interesting still. But technically a little bit a little bit of bearish divergence in play between this point right here in this point right here. That is a little bit problematic. Not by a little bit. I mean quite a bit. So that would be the bearish view on this. But this is the ETF. You do want to be looking at spot gold for actual you know, for actual direction. I do think. Anyways, arm. Where to look at Japan. We are looked at Germany. Let’s go back to Bitcoin, cover this bitch up and send them off. And then it’s twitch time baby, which I forgot to talk about earlier. I’m going to be doing twitch and we’re going to be doing the. I’m going to be going for a new all time record. The record so far is a seven is a seven hour and seven minute stream. I’m going for eight hours, baby. I’m going for eight hours. And I think that that it can be done. You’re more the moment, Jonathan. Anyways, pick one right here. Put back on these. Put it back on. The blue boxes of death indicate no peace and prosperity. April fools, go fuck yourself. Just kidding. But but you know, it’s shaking out the last for our low. Probably even does this 6 to 50 or close in a two hour delta below. Let’s call it 6 to 50 as well. I would look for a move all the way back down to six fifty nine fifty six thousand ish region. Now, the Bluebox riding over here probably does have another short term time frame bounce. However, assuming that that bounce just doesn’t get back above, let’s call it 60, 350, this region right here. I will look for that bounce get sold into and then we can play out the actual downside coming all the way back down to the mid five thousands region. By the same token, if Bitcoin were to flip back around, take out the 30th of March high on on an aggressive take on about six six fifty or especially in more conservative way, closing for our dollars back above about sixty eight hundred ish region, then I would target to move all the way up to 70, choose any 300’s region. However, I think that that would just give us another or perhaps give me another. Nice, nice trade up. Nice trade setup right there. Again, this is never fun Tobiason about French Voser but I do like a lot of things that I’m seeing the mark right now from a trading perspective. So at the end of the day to be a trader, I do think as you’re not gonna be relying on the erratic moves and swings of this asset and instead can just enjoy the volatility as that is opportunity on and off. Now, I want to wish you all I want to wish everyone here a phenomenal day. It’s been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. And this very once had a conversation once again and again, Matt. You know, I see a lot of the I see a lot of the panic with with what’s going on the world right now. I found a lot of security and insult and solace in this community and just kind of like, you know, focusing on things that we can focus on and change and keep on working towards cultivating these skills of which I’m cultivating a skill and twitch right now, which I’m really excited about, and also trading as well. Keeping that keeping that short saw swords sharp can’t speak. And and that makes for a very fun journey. So, you know, during this time, I hoped, you know, I hope that we can all come together over that anyways. Like I said, I’m droning off a little bit too long now. Take care. And until next time.

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