#(someone get me a tropical vacation stat)

[bedlamsbard]

the cold weather advisories of "if you go outside you're going to get frostbite within ten minutes" are exactly why I didn't want to move to South Dakota in the first place. I'd move back to Georgia immediately if I didn't have to go outside to do it.

[tfw-no-tennis]

A-Z Tag Meme!

I was tagged by rated-r-for-grantaire thank you for tagging me!!! <3

Rules: Copy this post into a new text post, remove my answers and put in yours, and when you are done tag up to 10 people and also tag the person who tagged you.. And most importantly, have fun!

a - age: 19 bruh! the other day i had a dream i turned 20 nd had an existensial crisis (in the dream) lets hope that doesnt happen irl lol b - biggest fear: NEEDLES :( d - drink you last had: strawberry smoothie e - every day starts with: 'white tornado’ by REM (alarm)  f - favorite song: i cant choose overall but rn it’s ‘(Song For My) Sugar Spun Sister’ by The Stone Roses B) g - ghosts, are they real?: i dont think so but who knows! h - hometown: born in the south, grew up in new england i - in love with: myself and also getting a good night of sleep j - jealous of: people who regularly get 8 hours of sleep a night k - killed someone: no but i might over chem we’ll see.... l - last time you cried: havent cried since 2016 actually, im pretty sure it was november when i had a mental breakdown lmao yikez m - middle name(s): journal n - number of siblings: 2 #oldestchildlyfe o - one wish: not fail physics and calc when i have to take them p - person you last called/texted: my roommate about food r - reasons to smile: just finished my stats hw for the week!!!!!!!! s - song last sang: i was jamming to Smooth by Santana the other day while doing dishes t - time you woke up: 9:50 am, then again at 1:30 pm (nap lyfe) u - underwear color: black v - vacation destination: anywhere tropical tbh w - worst habit(s): this is nasty but i tend to chew on the dead skin inside my mouth grosss x - x-rays you’ve had: 2 much....teeth, hand, foot, back, arm, skull y - your favorite food: i fucking love chick fil a right now i cant help it z - zodiac sign: libra lyfee B) 

ok i tag bruh (DO IT FOR ONCE), shelby, annehathawaywithwords, ofvirtuesandvagabonds, nostatenoproblem, and skybreeze123! do it if you want!!

[mite75]

all the ocean asks!!!!!!!!!! or if that's too many, any five? ^-^

pearl: if you could travel anywhere in the world, where would you go and why?

right now japan or france to study animation techniques if i could. 

sails: describe your perfect partner.

someone who is really forward with me no big secrets, and is sweet and kind and gentle. someone who will sit with me at the beach and make sand castles or go on roller coasters with me. Someone who genuinely loves to spend time with me but will tell me when they need space. OH also if they would cuddle me a lot and give me cute kisses and lots of hugs tbh i would not mind one bit. literally the most important thing is i want someone who wants to be with me. I don’t want someone who isn’t really interested in me romantically. 

lighthouse: how much makeup do you wear?

haha ^^;; no? i dont wear any i wish i did but I’m lazy. sometimes eyeliner or mascara or lipstick but thats rare, only if i wanna look strong or I’m dressing up for something i care about like a movie or a date or something.

shells: would you prefer to be a vampire or a werewolf?

answered

mermaid: most embarrassing moment?

mmm once i turned to the popular girl in my grade thinking she was my friend and i poked the vein in my arm and said “wow it pops out!!” i was on the bench at my own basketball game. i noticed who i said this to so i stood up from the bench and walked out of the gym. i was so mad at myself 0_0;;; i was also like 10??

turquoise: weirdest dream you’ve ever had?

i honestly dont remember the weirdest but

well last night this was my dream: a monster was attacking a little kid on the road. I was driving a boat on the road like a car so i turned around and hit the monster with my boat, then drove away towards school. (in the dream its like midnight btw) I’m at school and its so dark, we get on these computers and it’s all gibberish but apparently I’m understanding it?? then my tooth starts to fall out and i can’t stop it. it falls out then the rest just instantly fall with it. this dream was so vivid i remember thinking in the dream “this can’t be real it’s gotta be a dream” but then instantly going shit i remember the whole day it can’t be a dream!!! i look in the mirror and my teeth are gone but a 3rd set is growing in so I’m like hh thank goodness. then i woke up

waves: favourite season and why?

answered

breakers: would you ever consider getting married?

YEs i wanna get married i dont have to but the thought of having a wife sounds so good. but tbh if my partner doesn’t like the idea of getting married I’m chill with that.

seafoam: describe your ideal summer vacation.

answered

rain: if it were possible, what exotic animal would you keep as a pet?

umm either a bear tiger or moose. they’re all animals that if i could have them completely tame i would have a big cute baby that loves me. and thats just adorable. OH!!! OR A BARN OWL BECAUSE I LOVE THEM!!

sunlight: least favourite song?

mm idk a lot of country songs. OH i really hate i saw mommy kissing santa clause. idk why i just hate it.

marine: would you ever consider plastic surgery?

only if it was going to help my health or if i had something really wrong in plain sight. 

sea glass: what do you consider to be your best physical feature?

my freckles

storm: do you like piercings and tattoos? Why or why not?

answered

boardwalk: who is your favourite fictional couple?

answered

coral: if you had to describe your personality as a food, what would you be and why?

answered

nymph: old-fashioned or modern decor?

i like modern ^^; especially glass things and black and white schemes with splashes of vivid color.

seawater: scariest movie you’ve ever watched?

answered 

siren: in a fantasy setting, would you be a warrior, rogue or mage?

warrior i need that defense stat or I’m ded. or an archer  but i can’t pick that.

tempest: your favourite Pokemon?

answered

tropic: what is your least favourite thing about your appearance?

my freckles

aquamarine: describe your dream date.

amusement park we talk and joke in line and ride roller coasters and spinny rides all day!! we pack lunch but still end up buying fries to share ^^; because that always happens with me. if we’re going really dream here we both win each other a nice prize ;u; 

brine: gold or silver?

idk i’ve never been a huge fan of gold it’s soft and expensive ;_; silver is still expensive but it’s a cooler color and it’s tough.

tidal: what is a colour that best describes your personality?

grey/blue

azure: what is something that you do that makes you happy?

watch happy shows, or talk with friends

fog: describe where you think you’ll be in five years.

hopefully with a starting job in animation with a stable relationship and good friends. bad case scenario would be dead

coastline: what is your favourite flower?

violets or forget me nots

shallows: what is your typical Starbucks order?

i dont ^^; I’m not a coffee drinker

voyage: what are your favourite names?

lila, nicole, max, river, rose, and liz

shipwreck: do you have an OC? If so, describe them.

yea!! i have tons but my main is cae. she’s immortal in a sense she could live forever if she is not harmed badly enough to die. umm she’s really strong willed and stubborn, she barley ever changes her mind. she has a strong heart for her friends and would not back down from protecting them. idk she’s awesome but she’s gotta see that there is more than one side to things.

cerulean: do you believe in true love?

yea not at first sight but i believe that people can truly love each other.

shoreline: if you could become fluent in another language, which would you pick and why?

answered

tsunami: describe a dream outfit of yours.

AWW MAN okay that flower dress thats poofy and has flowers in the skirt with ripped tights and platform shoes with flowers in them. then a flower crown with branches in it.

riptide: are you introverted or extroverted? Are you happy with this?

introverted and no

hurricane: describe a strange habit of yours.

 i like to sit on my legs not my butt.

[roinish]

Hey r/ LifeProTips! I was watching the news the other day and saw statistic after statistic being flashed before my eyes. Usually, I take them at face value because I figured someone had to fact check them...But after reading How To Lie With Statistics...I can no longer look at a statistic without asking...who's manipulating me?I put together some of the common practices people and organizations use to manipulate others using statistics.I hope you can use it to protect yourself!Lies, Damn Lies, and StatisticsWe need to stop using statistics to communicate with the public.Don't get me wrong, statistics is a valuable tool for certain applications. Informing the public is not one of those applications.You might be thinking, "That's a little extreme...why?"Simple:The average (mode) of society is not statistically literate enough to avoid being manipulated. To combat this, I recommend you read How To Lie With Statistics to get a basic understanding of how people, organizations, and even governments use statistics to further their own agendas.4 Out Of 5 Companies Think You're StupidAt some point in society, statistics became a way to nudge groups of people to do something or believe something.We're social creatures and information is limited. Relying on statistics is probably a social heuristic that allows us to make our lives easier by trusting the consensus of experts.However, that cultural construct has been hijacked for nefarious purposes.Companies do this all of the time. For example, take the TV ad run by Trident Gum, where they poke fun at the old "9 out of 10 dentists recommend" statement we know all too well.I admit it's clever. But how difficult is it for marketers to make a claim based on data to push their objectives?Shockingly easy. I watched a business seminar by Chet Holmes where he said that there was "data for everything" and that if you wanted to make a marketing claim, there was favorable data for your claim...and for the opposite claim as well.Chet's methods were effective, but they didn't pass my personal integrity filter.That's why I recommend we all up our personal stats game. When we see a statistic, the first thing we need to ask is, where is this stat coming from?Is it coming from a company selling a product?Maybe an association?Is the survey conducted by a third party but funded by the company selling the product? The list of questions goes on.All of this seems overwhelming and a bit conspiratory. But that's what allows bad statistics to seep through the cracks and into the mainstream: companies know you're too lazy to dig through the weeds and analyze all the details.That's why most of us will take the outcome of a survey or study at face value. Obviously someone had to fact check the results, otherwise, it wouldn't have been reported...right?WRONG."A river cannot, we are told, rise about its source."It's hard to determine the source of the data used to generate a statistic. Bias can taint the reputability of a stat ---when designed in certain ways---can enable people to make claims that are true, but biased.To detect bias, we need to be aware of the source of the data gathered. One huge clue is the number of people being surveyed or studied. Was it of adequate size and did it have the appropriate diversity, or was it too small or narrow in scope?For example, if I wanted to find the best steakhouse in Los Angeles, imagine how the results would turn out if I surveyed only vegans? I could easily say I surveyed "locals on their tastes," but meat eaters would think I was crazy.Data without context (knowing assumptions and biases) can lead to incorrect conclusions.Which Average Do You Mean?What's your average weight over the last 30 days? Before you call me rude, I'll tell you mine.165.1, 167.4, and 163.2 US pounds.How can I have three average weights? Well, first let me ask you, what's an average?Well, it could be either mean, median, or mode...This slight nuance enables statisticians to lead us to different conclusions.Let's stick with my weight example:Mean: I added up my 30 days of weights and divided by 30.Median: I listed my weights in ascending order and picked the absolute middle value.Mode: Which weight over the 30 days showed up the most times.Isn't it crazy that we can be led astray by such a simple concept as an average?If you've never heard of Death Valley, CA and saw the average temperatures and the image below, how would you pack your suitcase for a vacation there?Sounds like a perfect getaway destination and also includes a complimentary rainbow for a tropical flair...Oh, it's also the hottest place on Earth! Temperatures have been known to get over 130 degrees Fahrenheit. And if you went during the summer, you'd be in for a *rude *awakening."An unqualified average is virtually meaningless."I hope this illustrates just how deceiving averages can be if not properly understood.Don't Confuse Normal With DesirableI'm getting to that age where everyone around me is getting married and having kids. As good parents, they all want what's best for their child, so they consume books in the hopes that they'll give their kids a head start.As they read these books, their brains are primed to look out for certain milestones their child needs to hit so they know their child is on the right track.But what happens when a parent starts to freak out because their child didn't start talking by six months of age? Heaven forbids the kid decides to speak up at month seven.Just think about how that parent feels the longer their kid isn't progressing "normally."When we read statistics, it's important that we don't overlay our perception of normality on the natural process of life. Recently, I had lunch with Kevin who was joking that his neighbor brother didn't speak a word until the age of 2, but now he makes up for it 10-fold.Generalized statistics can't factor in for all variables, so don't rely on them to always fit your personalized situation.Don't Be A SuckerThere are countless more examples of how statistics can lead us astray, so we need to adopt a new lens to separate the wheat from the chaff.Here are a few rules you should keep in mind:Be a skeptic. Don't take a stat at face value until you look deeper into who's telling it to you and what their motivation is to get you to believe it.Look for bias. This is hard because you're not the one doing the survey or study, therefore you'll need to get your hands dirty and look at how the data was gathered. If this is not possible, you'll need to rely on the reputation of the entity stating the results, so make sure they're legit.Ask, how do they know? If you can't look for the bias yourself, then you need to put the organization stating the statistic under a microscope because you're relying on their reputation to say correct findings.Are there comparable findings by other organizations? If there isn't consensus between multiple third parties, then there is probably bias you need to be aware of. This can be difficult because one organization might have a proprietary method that is better than its competitors.Is there any error margin listed? In measuring things there is usually some margin of error, either by the tool or by the conducting human testers. If you don't see any error listed, it's probably not credible.Be aware of averages. I bet you'll never look at them the same based on the earlier examples.Humans can interpret data in different ways. We all have different life experiences and beliefs, therefore if two people look at the same raw data their conclusions can still be different. The hard part about studies paid for by companies is that it can be hard for the study executors to "bite the hand that feeds" by reporting unfavorable results.Ask, "Does this make sense?" After you've run it through all of these mental checks, do a gut check. Be extra scrupulous of generalized future trends based on past data as it can be difficult to predict accurately without using proper methods.Actionable NuggetI want you to find a statistic you believe is designed to mislead you.I'll leave you with a quote from Mark Twain:"There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact."Be diligent in finding facts and only form conclusions based on credible sources.Stay Thought-Full.tl;dr - never blindly trust a statistic!If you don't like reading, try listening to the full-length podcast instead. via /r/LifeProTips