#(plus a little Chaz profile)

[flowerprintundies]

The indomitable Herbert West

[missn11]

So at the risk of sounding like a Velvet Velour stan, I’m going to say a few things that really upset me when it comes to Isaac Abrams’ and Velvet’s portrayals in LA by Night and also an thought that has come to mind.

Namely Isaac Abrams is an asshole Toreador dad that plays favorites with his  adopted childer! So, last night a friend who also watches LA by Night and also has watched ahead of me, informed me that in the first Epilogue of season 3 of LA by Night Velvet gets continually shaded on by both Nelli G and her adopted sire! Her abilities get continually undermined and Isaac even reveals to Nelli that Velvet isn’t even his real childe and implying that he only took her on as a favor since he owned a boon to someone!

Why the fuck does Nelli not like Velvet? Does that ever get explained? Cause unless I hear a good enough reason, I’m just steamed and annoyed at Nelli for her unnecessary cattiness towards Velvet, which I find pretty hypocritical since she’s meant to help all women (except Velvet for some reason, who is also as of LA by Night, a former sexworker! 🤬)

And also when did Isaac lose his love and care for Velvet, an adopted childe that in VTMB he had such affection for, talking about how human and seemingly alive she was and now years later he doesn’t have any respect for her?

Well, I remember a little while ago that someone posted a screenshot of Isaac refusing to help out Ash with the hunters in the Asphole, saying that although he loves Ash, he can’t risk drawing attention to himself and the player can call him out on being an awful sire to Ash.

It got me thinking about how there seems to be cycle happening with Isaac’s childer, namely when he adopts or sire a new childe, the old one loses there luster. Ash was Isaac’s childe, one that he sired to save Ash’s life and how their relationship has fallen apart was devastating for Isaac. We don’t know when Velvet was adopted by Isaac but if it was after Ash’s siring, we might have a pattern. Ash, after being embraced is angry, depressed as well suicidal, he hates Isaac for stopping him from doing his art and passion, acting.

Velvet on the other hand is incredibly grateful to Isaac for taking her on as his childe, she even says that he is the father she never had, since her real bio dad was never in her life, she didn’t even know who he was. Since she’s so grateful, loving and trying to keep somewhat a low profile, it’s easy for Isaac to have more affection for her. Velvet has had unhappy life before coming into Isaac’s care, her real name is Susan but refuses to even use it anymore, saying that girl was mediocre and is dead, having remade herself.

But then Ash has to runaway from LA to get away from the hunters and perhaps Isaac’s heart hardens, also there’s another young Toreador woman who needs his help, who also has a sad past, a sire, Chaz, who abused her horribly and that was Nelli G.

Unlike Velvet, Nelli has skills in espionage and combat, plus unlike Velvet, she has a ‘respectable’ career as a fashion designer. Isaac has shown his disapproval of pornography and probably sexwork as a whole, which is likely why that Velvet has lost her luster for him.

And of course Nelli is no doubt grateful for Isaac’s help, she owns him so much and they have a father-daughter type relationship, after all he is better than Chaz ever was. So he gives all his love and affection to Nelli, helps her out whenever he can, giving her weapons, aid and even made her his successor to his Barony.

You starting to see a pattern here?    

And also, why do Nelli and Velvet not like each other? I think it’s cause that Isaac plays favorites with them, Velvet can probably tell that Isaac has more affection for Nelli now than he does for her anymore. Perhaps without even knowing it, Isaac has ended up pitting Velvet and Nelli against each other. I don’t know.

Does this get answered later on?

Either way this is one of the many reasons LA by Night!Isaac pisses me off, that I don’t feel able to go into to yet, gotta sort out all my thoughts first XD But I don’e see why Isaac can’t show his affection and love to both Nelli and Velvet.

But what makes me so sad is that Nines Rodriguez who didn’t get much play in VTMB is allowed to have his character expanded upon, which is really great :), but the same wasn’t given to Velvet Velour, who funny enough has some things in common with Nines. 

They both remade themselves upon becoming Kindred, to the point they don’t even use their birth names anymore, they both come broken homes, Nines from the horrible poverty his family suffered from the Great Depression, which lack of money ended causing the death of his youngest brother, Velvet from an abusive mother and absent father. Due to their circumstances, Nines likely had to turn to crime and Velvet to sexwork (correct me if I’m really wrong) Nines was without a sire, possibly had been turned and abandoned, Velvet had also been forgotten and abandoned by her sire. And again they both remade themselves during their time as a Kindred, Nines has become the leader of the Downtown Anarchs (though not because he wanted to but needed to) and Velvet managed to run an successful business with Vesuvius.

So in short I will conclude that Velvet deserved better, even though she’s a side character in LA by Night and she’s more than a sexy vampire woman with a spine tingling voice!

[junker-town]

Boise State football’s no longer a sure thing, but the bar remains high

The Broncos have lost too many weird games over the last few years. Their talent advantage remains, however.

This preview originally published April 17 and has since been updated.

Bryan Harsin attended Boise State just as the emerging FCS power was transitioning to FBS. He completed 11 of 39 passes for 155 yards, a touchdown, and an interception over four seasons (1996-99), but while his playing career wasn’t noteworthy, his time in Boise was.

During Harsin’s freshman season, BSU went 2-10; his senior year, under Dirk Koetter, they went 10-3. In the 17 seasons since, the Broncos have never won fewer than eight games in a season. When Harsin signed on as BSU tight ends coach in 2002, the Broncos went 12-1. When he became a coordinator in 2006, they went undefeated. And when he returned as head coach, his Broncos secured the Group of Five’s first Playoff bowl autobid and won the Fiesta Bowl.

Harsin has been on either the two-deep or coaching staff for most of Boise State’s best moments. And over the last couple of seasons, he’s been in charge for some disappointing moments, too.

It's all about expectations, isn’t it? Boise State remains the most consistent mid-major in the country; the Broncos have ranked in the S&P+ top 40 for 10 of the last 11 years and have won at least nine games in 14 of 15. They have won five of their last six against power conference opponents. They have won 31 games in three years under Harsin.

This is a level every Group of Five team wishes it could maintain. But for Boise State, it almost feels problematic. The Broncos have been sloppy at the wrong times.

In 2015, they suffered a combined minus-nine turnover margin in losses to Utah State and New Mexico and lost the MWC Mountain race to Air Force. In 2016, they gave up a late safety in a two-point loss to Wyoming, ceding the division tiebreaker, and suffered their third straight Air Force loss.

For back-to-back seasons, the class of mid-majordom has not even managed to be the class of its own division. And last year finished with an uninspired, 19-point bowl loss to a Baylor that had looked lost itself for most of the season.

Are these actual problems or just Boise Problems? Are the kinks in the system, or have the bounces just gone the wrong way at precise times?

My guess is more latter than former. Over the last five years, USF is the only mid-major to recruit better on average. BSU’s five-year S&P+ average is 27th overall and better than that of teams like Tennessee, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, or Texas. They have ranked first in S&P+ among MWC teams in each of the last three years, even if bounces and tiebreakers have gone against them.

The components seem as strong as ever, and BSU brings a lot of exciting pieces back: quarterback Brett Rypien, receiver Cedrick Wilson, center Mason Hampton, nose tackle David Moa, and corner Tyler Horton, to name a few.

Still, there’s just been enough turnover to make you wonder about certain areas of the depth chart, and the brutal schedule includes trips to Washington State, BYU, San Diego State, Utah State, and Colorado State, not to mention visits from Troy, Virginia, Wyoming, and BSU’s recent nemesis, Air Force.

It feels strange to say it about a coach averaging more than 10 games per year, but damned if it doesn’t feel like Harsin is under pressure. Or at least, he could be soon.

Of course, that notion could feel silly soon. BSU was nine points from finishing the regular season unbeaten despite bad turnovers luck (minus-3.1 points per game, 10th-worst in the country). Rypien had a passer rating of 210 or higher in three MWC games last year and is likely the conference’s best offensive player. Moa might be the conference’s best defensive player.

BSU might have more pure talent than every opponent on the 2017 schedule. If there are issues regarding talent, depth, or Harsin’s coaching, we’ll find out. But “have more talent” is a good starting point.

2016 in review

2016 Boise State statistical profile.

The Broncos played at a top-50 level, with a high-caliber offense and decent defense. Still, it was a clear drop-off from the level BSU established early.

First 5 games (5-0): Avg. percentile performance: 82% (~top 25) | Avg. yards per play: BSU 7.0, Opp 4.8 (plus-2.2) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-5.1 PPG

Last 8 games (5-3): Avg. percentile performance: 66% (~top 45) | Avg. yards per play: BSU 6.8, Opp 5.4 (plus-1.4) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-12.7 PPG

For five games, BSU was nearly untouchable. On a per-play basis, the Broncos drastically outgained two Pac-12 opponents — Washington State by 1.2 yards per play, Oregon State by 1.3 — and handled two potentially confounding conference foes, Utah State and New Mexico. As Colorado State came to town, the Broncos had proved themselves by far the class of the mid-majors.

Things got more difficult from there. Injuries began to thin out the defense. BSU started slowly and ceded the field position advantage against Colorado State and needed drastic turnovers luck (and special teams oddity) to get past BYU. They outgained Wyoming by more than 1.5 yards per play but suffered massive field position disadvantages and fell via safety dance. And following the annual, unlikely loss to Air Force, BSU had no answers for Baylor’s passing game.

This was never a bad team, but it failed to clear the bar it set once injuries set in. The star power and high-end athleticism seem as high as ever, but depth and poorly placed injuries could create a similar feel in 2017.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Zak Hill’s first year as BSU coordinator was, until the bowl game, an exercise in consistency and improvement. The Broncos bounced back from an uncharacteristic No. 53 ranking in Off. S&P+ in 2015, surging to 19th and averaging at least 6.1 yards per play in 10 of 13 games. The former Eastern Washington passing game coordinator attempted balance on standard downs and told Rypien to go make a play on passing downs; the recipe worked.

Hill’s job gets a little bit harder this fall. Continuity in the receiving corps is a major predictive indicator, and while Rypien returns, three of his top four targets do not. Thomas Sperbeck caught 80 passes for 1,272 yards (10.2 per target) out of the slot, while receiver Chaz Anderson and running back Jeremy McNichols combined for 68 catches and 876 yards.

[Update: QB depth took a hit when Rathen Ricedorff left the team in April, but Kansas grad transfer Montell Cozart, an 18-game starter, joined in May.]

Junior slot men Sean Modster and Akilian Butler appear to have massive potential, but Cedrick Wilson is the only returning X- or Z-receiver who caught more than two passes last year. Wilson is awesome — 1,129 yards, 11.9 per target, and five 100-yard receiving games in 2016 — and the combination of slot receivers and a glut of tight ends (seniors Alec Dhaenens and Jake Roh, juniors Jake Knight and Chase Blakley, sophomore Matt Pistone, redshirt freshmen Nick Crabtree and John Bates) should mean plenty of efficiency options.

Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports

Cedrick Wilson

Still, you need field stretchers out wide, and a lot will be expected of junior wideout A.J. Richardson, a former mid-three-star who caught a 31-yard pass in the opening game of 2016 but only caught one more the rest of the year. He had four receptions for 74 yards in Boise State’s spring game. Modster and Butler, meanwhile, had six for 44.

The lost of McNichols hurts more than the passing game. He was the only Boise back who showed any big-play potential — he had 15 of BSU’s 17 rushes of 20-plus yards — and he carried a massive load. He averaged 24.2 carries per game, and backups combined for only 8.1 per game.

A couple of those backups are gone, leaving only sophomore Alexander Mattison (4.9 yards per carry), senior walk-on Ryan Wolpin (3.0), and youngsters like redshirt freshman Robert Mahone and true freshman Drake Beasley. Mattison and Beasley are both former mid-three-stars, so there’s probably upside, but it’s been untapped.

Oh yeah, and there might be concerns up front. Starting center Mason Hampton and tackle Archie Lewis return, and sophomore tackle John Molchon started three games last year. But in Travis Averill, Mario Yakoo, and Steven Baggett, BSU must replace three starters who earned all-conference honors and combined for 119 career starts. Harsin was concerned enough that he signed a couple of JUCOs.

Of course, if Rypien continues to progress, he’ll mask a lot of weaknesses. The former four-star has lived up to the hype thus far, and while Wyoming’s Josh Allen has earned hype (and justifiably so), Rypien had a higher completion rate, more passing yards, and fewer interceptions last year. He’s a stud.

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Sean Modster

Defense

Harsin had to replace both coordinators last year, and while his offensive coordinator hire worked out beautifully, his promotion of Andy Avalos to defensive coordinator held the fort. BSU fell three spots in Def. S&P+ but maintained a top-40 level.

Avalos’ first defense was a little too much of a bend-don’t-break unit on standard downs, but the Broncos prevented big plays, and when opponents were leveraged into passing downs (which occasionally took too long), the drive ended. BSU ranked ninth in Passing Downs S&P+ despite what was only a decent pass rush.

Most of the line returns, though that only matters if coaches trust more linemen to contribute. Only five made more than 7 tackles a year ago, and two are gone. When end Gabe Perez was lost to injury early in the year, BSU just tightened the rotation. That worked out alright; David Moa and ends Jabril Frazier and Durrant Miles combined for 20 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks, and four breakups, and BSU’s run defense was mostly decent. But there were breakdowns, and BSU wasn’t as good in the second half as it was in the first half.

Perez’s return could account for the loss of star end Sam McCaskill, but more options are needed, be they veterans like tackle Daniel Auelua or Perez or younger contributors (sophomore tackles Chase Hatada, Matt Locher, and Emmanuel Fesili, redshirt freshman ends Kayode Rufai, Jabari Watson, and Derriyon Shaw).

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

David Moa

New linemen need to step up not only because the line needs improvement; they also need to surge because the back seven has a lot to replace. Granted, injury forced a lot of guys into action, but BSU is still looking at replacing five of its top seven linebackers and four of six defensive backs.

Harsin brought in a couple of JUCOs for help (linebacker Joseph Inda and cornerback Mike Young, both of whom could end up starting), and at the least, there are plenty of options in the back seven. Linebackers Blake Whitlock and Leighton Vander Esch combined for 7.5 TFLs and three passes defensed as backups (and Vander Esch only played half the season), and corner Tyler Horton and safety Cameron Hartsfield will serve as steady anchors for a young secondary that boasts 11 former three-star recruits and a former four-star (freshman Jermani Brown).

Big-play prevention was a strength last year, but youth tends to create ups and downs. We’ll see how much of last year’s back-row steadiness can be retained.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Tyson Maeva (58) and Tyler Horton (14)

Special Teams

After ranking 15th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2015, Boise State returned most of its best pieces but still slumped to 76th in 2016, mostly because Tyler Rausa wasn’t as effective in the place-kicking department. He missed three field goals under 40 yards and missed his only over-40 attempt. That might not seem that bad, but it’s not good.

Rausa and big-time punter Sean Wale are gone, as is part-time kick return Jonathan Moxey. I guess it seems less intimidating rebuilding a mid-70s unit than a top-20 unit, but either way, there’s a rebuild here.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Troy 79 14.6 80% 9-Sep at Washington State 40 0.1 50% 16-Sep New Mexico 110 23.1 91% 22-Sep Virginia 70 11.7 75% 6-Oct at BYU 46 1.5 53% 14-Oct at San Diego State 52 2.3 55% 21-Oct Wyoming 80 15.2 81% 28-Oct at Utah State 73 8.0 68% 4-Nov Nevada 117 24.2 92% 11-Nov at Colorado State 43 1.1 52% 18-Nov Air Force 116 24.0 92% 25-Nov at Fresno State 115 18.9 86%

Projected S&P+ Rk 29 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 19 / 63 Projected wins 8.8 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 9.6 (27) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 64 / 64 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -9 / -1.0 2016 TO Luck/Game -3.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 55% (60%, 50%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 10.2 (-0.2)

Man, I just don’t know.

From a stat perspective, Boise State is still one of the surest things around. The Broncos are projected 29th in S&P+, and their games can be broken into two categories: road tossups (four games with win probability between 50 and 55 percent) and likely wins (seven at 75 percent or higher). There are no sure losses, and if quality recruiting produces breakthrough guys, BSU will have another big year.

Those tossups make me nervous, though. BSU has figured out how to lose a couple of games it should win in each of the last two years, and, well, what if a couple of big, new contributors don’t emerge?

What if the offensive line falls off from last year’s pace? What if the new backs are nowhere near the standard set by McNichols? What if the Broncos allow a lot more big plays because of a young secondary? What if the defensive line is no deeper?

Boise State has a lot to prove this year, at least by Boise State standards. The Broncos are dealing with turnover and no longer get the benefit of the doubt in the Mountain West.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

[junker-town]

Boise State football’s no longer a sure thing, but the bar remains high

The Broncos have lost too many weird games over the last few years. Their talent advantage remains, however.

Bryan Harsin attended Boise State just as the emerging FCS power was transitioning to FBS. He completed 11 of 39 passes for 155 yards, a touchdown, and an interception over four seasons (1996-99), but while his playing career wasn’t noteworthy, his time in Boise was.

During Harsin’s freshman season, BSU went 2-10; his senior year, under Dirk Koetter, they went 10-3. In the 17 seasons since, the Broncos have never won fewer than eight games in a season. When Harsin signed on as BSU tight ends coach in 2002, the Broncos went 12-1. When he became a coordinator in 2006, they went undefeated. And when he returned as head coach, his Broncos secured the Group of Five’s first Playoff bowl autobid and won the Fiesta Bowl.

Harsin has been on either the two-deep or coaching staff for most of Boise State’s best moments. And over the last couple of seasons, he’s been in charge for some disappointing moments, too.

It's all about expectations, isn’t it? Boise State remains the most consistent mid-major in the country; the Broncos have ranked in the S&P+ top 40 for 10 of the last 11 years and have won at least nine games in 14 of 15. They have won five of their last six against power conference opponents. They have won 31 games in three years under Harsin.

This is a level every Group of Five team wishes it could maintain. But for Boise State, it almost feels problematic. The Broncos have been sloppy at the wrong times.

In 2015, they suffered a combined minus-nine turnover margin in losses to Utah State and New Mexico and lost the MWC Mountain race to Air Force. In 2016, they gave up a late safety in a two-point loss to Wyoming, ceding the division tiebreaker, and suffered their third straight Air Force loss.

For back-to-back seasons, the class of mid-majordom has not even managed to be the class of its own division. And last year finished with an uninspired, 19-point bowl loss to a Baylor that had looked lost itself for most of the season.

Are these actual problems or just Boise Problems? Are the kinks in the system, or have the bounces just gone the wrong way at precise times?

My guess is more latter than former. Over the last five years, USF is the only mid-major to recruit better on average. BSU’s five-year S&P+ average is 27th overall and better than that of teams like Tennessee, Arkansas, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, or Texas. They have ranked first in S&P+ among MWC teams in each of the last three years, even if bounces and tiebreakers have gone against them.

The components seem as strong as ever, and BSU brings a lot of exciting pieces back: quarterback Brett Rypien, receiver Cedrick Wilson, center Mason Hampton, nose tackle David Moa, and corner Tyler Horton, to name a few.

Still, there’s just been enough turnover to make you wonder about certain areas of the depth chart, and the brutal schedule includes trips to Washington State, BYU, San Diego State, Utah State, and Colorado State, not to mention visits from Troy, Virginia, Wyoming, and BSU’s recent nemesis, Air Force.

It feels strange to say it about a coach averaging more than 10 games per year, but damned if it doesn’t feel like Harsin is under pressure. Or at least, he could be soon.

Of course, that notion could feel silly soon. BSU was nine points from finishing the regular season unbeaten despite bad turnovers luck (minus-3.1 points per game, 10th-worst in the country). Rypien had a passer rating of 210 or higher in three MWC games last year and is likely the conference’s best offensive player. Moa might be the conference’s best defensive player.

BSU might have more pure talent than every opponent on the 2017 schedule. If there are issues regarding talent, depth, or Harsin’s coaching, we’ll find out. But “have more talent” is a good starting point.

2016 in review

2016 Boise State statistical profile.

The Broncos played at a top-50 level, with a high-caliber offense and decent defense. Still, it was a clear drop-off from the level BSU established early.

First 5 games (5-0): Avg. percentile performance: 82% (~top 25) | Avg. yards per play: BSU 7.0, Opp 4.8 (plus-2.2) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-5.1 PPG

Last 8 games (5-3): Avg. percentile performance: 66% (~top 45) | Avg. yards per play: BSU 6.8, Opp 5.4 (plus-1.4) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-12.7 PPG

For five games, BSU was nearly untouchable. On a per-play basis, the Broncos drastically outgained two Pac-12 opponents — Washington State by 1.2 yards per play, Oregon State by 1.3 — and handled two potentially confounding conference foes, Utah State and New Mexico. As Colorado State came to town, the Broncos had proved themselves by far the class of the mid-majors.

Things got more difficult from there. Injuries began to thin out the defense. BSU started slowly and ceded the field position advantage against Colorado State and needed drastic turnovers luck (and special teams oddity) to get past BYU. They outgained Wyoming by more than 1.5 yards per play but suffered massive field position disadvantages and fell via safety dance. And following the annual, unlikely loss to Air Force, BSU had no answers for Baylor’s passing game.

This was never a bad team, but it failed to clear the bar it set once injuries set in. The star power and high-end athleticism seem as high as ever, but depth and poorly placed injuries could create a similar feel in 2017.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

Zak Hill’s first year as BSU coordinator was, until the bowl game, an exercise in consistency and improvement. The Broncos bounced back from an uncharacteristic No. 53 ranking in Off. S&P+ in 2015, surging to 19th and averaging at least 6.1 yards per play in 10 of 13 games. The former Eastern Washington passing game coordinator attempted balance on standard downs and told Rypien to go make a play on passing downs; the recipe worked.

Hill’s job gets a little bit harder this fall. Continuity in the receiving corps is a major predictive indicator, and while Rypien returns, three of his top four targets do not. Thomas Sperbeck caught 80 passes for 1,272 yards (10.2 per target) out of the slot, while receiver Chaz Anderson and running back Jeremy McNichols combined for 68 catches and 876 yards.

Junior slot men Sean Modster and Akilian Butler appear to have massive potential, but Cedrick Wilson is the only returning X- or Z-receiver who caught more than two passes last year. Wilson is awesome — 1,129 yards, 11.9 per target, and five 100-yard receiving games in 2016 — and the combination of slot receivers and a glut of tight ends (seniors Alec Dhaenens and Jake Roh, juniors Jake Knight and Chase Blakley, sophomore Matt Pistone, redshirt freshmen Nick Crabtree and John Bates) should mean plenty of efficiency options.

Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports

Cedrick Wilson

Still, you need field stretchers out wide, and a lot will be expected of junior wideout A.J. Richardson, a former mid-three-star who caught a 31-yard pass in the opening game of 2016 but only caught one more the rest of the year. He had four receptions for 74 yards in Boise State’s spring game. Modster and Butler, meanwhile, had six for 44.

The lost of McNichols hurts more than the passing game. He was the only Boise back who showed any big-play potential — he had 15 of BSU’s 17 rushes of 20-plus yards — and he carried a massive load. He averaged 24.2 carries per game, and backups combined for only 8.1 per game.

A couple of those backups are gone, leaving only sophomore Alexander Mattison (4.9 yards per carry), senior walk-on Ryan Wolpin (3.0), and youngsters like redshirt freshman Robert Mahone and true freshman Drake Beasley. Mattison and Beasley are both former mid-three-stars, so there’s probably upside, but it’s been untapped.

Oh yeah, and there might be concerns up front. Starting center Mason Hampton and tackle Archie Lewis return, and sophomore tackle John Molchon started three games last year. But in Travis Averill, Mario Yakoo, and Steven Baggett, BSU must replace three starters who earned all-conference honors and combined for 119 career starts. Harsin was concerned enough that he signed a couple of JUCOs.

Of course, if Rypien continues to progress, he’ll mask a lot of weaknesses. The former four-star has lived up to the hype thus far, and while Wyoming’s Josh Allen has earned hype (and justifiably so), Rypien had a higher completion rate, more passing yards, and fewer interceptions last year. He’s a stud.

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Sean Modster

Defense

Harsin had to replace both coordinators last year, and while his offensive coordinator hire worked out beautifully, his promotion of Andy Avalos to defensive coordinator held the fort. BSU fell three spots in Def. S&P+ but maintained a top-40 level.

Avalos’ first defense was a little too much of a bend-don’t-break unit on standard downs, but the Broncos prevented big plays, and when opponents were leveraged into passing downs (which occasionally took too long), the drive ended. BSU ranked ninth in Passing Downs S&P+ despite what was only a decent pass rush.

Most of the line returns, though that only matters if coaches trust more linemen to contribute. Only five made more than 7 tackles a year ago, and two are gone. When end Gabe Perez was lost to injury early in the year, BSU just tightened the rotation. That worked out alright; David Moa and ends Jabril Frazier and Durrant Miles combined for 20 tackles for loss, 13.5 sacks, and four breakups, and BSU’s run defense was mostly decent. But there were breakdowns, and BSU wasn’t as good in the second half as it was in the first half.

Perez’s return could account for the loss of star end Sam McCaskill, but more options are needed, be they veterans like tackle Daniel Auelua or Perez or younger contributors (sophomore tackles Chase Hatada, Matt Locher, and Emmanuel Fesili, redshirt freshman ends Kayode Rufai, Jabari Watson, and Derriyon Shaw).

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

David Moa

New linemen need to step up not only because the line needs improvement; they also need to surge because the back seven has a lot to replace. Granted, injury forced a lot of guys into action, but BSU is still looking at replacing five of its top seven linebackers and four of six defensive backs.

Harsin brought in a couple of JUCOs for help (linebacker Joseph Inda and cornerback Mike Young, both of whom could end up starting), and at the least, there are plenty of options in the back seven. Linebackers Blake Whitlock and Leighton Vander Esch combined for 7.5 TFLs and three passes defensed as backups (and Vander Esch only played half the season), and corner Tyler Horton and safety Cameron Hartsfield will serve as steady anchors for a young secondary that boasts 11 former three-star recruits and a former four-star (freshman Jermani Brown).

Big-play prevention was a strength last year, but youth tends to create ups and downs. We’ll see how much of last year’s back-row steadiness can be retained.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Tyson Maeva (58) and Tyler Horton (14)

Special Teams

After ranking 15th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2015, Boise State returned most of its best pieces but still slumped to 76th in 2016, mostly because Tyler Rausa wasn’t as effective in the place-kicking department. He missed three field goals under 40 yards and missed his only over-40 attempt. That might not seem that bad, but it’s not good.

Rausa and big-time punter Sean Wale are gone, as is part-time kick return Jonathan Moxey. I guess it seems less intimidating rebuilding a mid-70s unit than a top-20 unit, but either way, there’s a rebuild here.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 2-Sep Troy 79 14.6 80% 9-Sep at Washington State 40 0.1 50% 16-Sep New Mexico 110 23.1 91% 22-Sep Virginia 70 11.7 75% 6-Oct at BYU 46 1.5 53% 14-Oct at San Diego State 52 2.3 55% 21-Oct Wyoming 80 15.2 81% 28-Oct at Utah State 73 8.0 68% 4-Nov Nevada 117 24.2 92% 11-Nov at Colorado State 43 1.1 52% 18-Nov Air Force 116 24.0 92% 25-Nov at Fresno State 115 18.9 86%

Projected S&P+ Rk 29 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 19 / 63 Projected wins 8.8 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 9.6 (27) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 64 / 64 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -9 / -1.0 2016 TO Luck/Game -3.1 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 55% (60%, 50%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 10.2 (-0.2)

Man, I just don’t know.

From a stat perspective, Boise State is still one of the surest things around. The Broncos are projected 29th in S&P+, and their games can be broken into two categories: road tossups (four games with win probability between 50 and 55 percent) and likely wins (seven at 75 percent or higher). There are no sure losses, and if quality recruiting produces breakthrough guys, BSU will have another big year.

Those tossups make me nervous, though. BSU has figured out how to lose a couple of games it should win in each of the last two years, and, well, what if a couple of big, new contributors don’t emerge?

What if the offensive line falls off from last year’s pace? What if the new backs are nowhere near the standard set by McNichols? What if the Broncos allow a lot more big plays because of a young secondary? What if the defensive line is no deeper?

Boise State has a lot to prove this year, at least by Boise State standards. The Broncos are dealing with turnover and no longer get the benefit of the doubt in the Mountain West.

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