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auburnfamilynews · 4 years ago

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Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

You ain’t seen bouncin’ back!

Alright, well let’s dust ourselves off and get back out there. At least most of us nailed the under! This is a bounce back opportunity for Auburn. Arkansas is coming off of their first conference win in 20 tries, but that’s what happen when you let BERT run your program.

What’s that?

No, I really don’t think they ever really gave him a chance. What was he supposed to do with all of two years to recruit to a completely different system?

Anyway, Auburn needs this game to work out offensive line issues, especially in the run game. Unfortunately Arkansas appears to be strong against the run. This might be one where you challenge the fortitude of your football team and make them guy through it. How do we feel it will go?

Note: Most of us started to pick this before Hurricane Delta started to move the line a bit. There’s a decent chance one of the bands could hit during the game, so that could affect scoring. I updated to what Bill Connolly used to judge SP+.

Auburn (-14) vs. Arkansas (O/U 46.5)

SP+ Pick: Auburn -16.6; Total 49 (OVER)

Yeah I’m still boiling over last Saturday’s abject failure and now am even more enraged at the notion that if we coach/play like we did in Athens in the middle of a hurricane on Saturday that we could end up losing to this team and ultimately wind up with a $50 million+ decision to make in a pandemic. I am not ok and will not be ok regardless of what happens Saturday.

Still, we should beat this team and cover this spread. Don’t let Mississippi State looking like ass fool you here, Arkansas is the worst team in this league, and the only debate to the contrary involves Vanderbilt. The problem is they are very well coached, WHICH MATTERS WHEN YOU WANT TO BEAT A MORE TALENTED TEAM ON THE ROAD IN THIS CONFERENCE NOT THAT I AM REFERENCING ANYTHING IN PARTICULAR NOPE JUST THROWING OUT SOME RANDOM BIT OF ANALYSIS HERE.

/takes a deep breath and attempts to rationalize anything in this stupid year…

Auburn needs to run the football 35-40 times. Not a single one of those carries should be a called run by Bo Nix. They will not be given a better opportunity to use a game to get better than this one. They need to figure out run blocking regardless of how tight that keeps the score. And it’ll mean a sloppy game where things get weird, but it can pay dividends in the coming weeks. They absolutely must use this game to settle the offensive line and get some confidence, because if you don’t you’re going to get bullied by Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and probably be dared to get into a shootout with the Mississippi schools.

I think the offense looks rough as hell thanks to the weather and a need to grind through the deficiencies up front, but ultimately eek out an ugly win that feels similar to Ole Miss a year ago, where the game is in question on the scoreboard and the stats don’t align with it.

Auburn 27, Arkansas 10 (Auburn wins and covers; under)

—Josh Black

I am still pissed about last Saturday & will remain so for quite some time. The Tigers had a golden opportunity to change the AU/UGA narrative & establish themselves as a legitimate CFP contender. Instead, they got their butts beat & looked outclassed from head coach to student manager. It was embarrassing.

But despite the hopeless feelings of this week that AU fans have expressed quite verbosely on the internet wherever anyone would listen, the season isn’t over. The Tigers still have a chance to put together a season of football to be proud of but it has to start this weekend.

Auburn must win this game. That’s obvious but I’ll go a step further. Auburn must dominate this game. This team needs an emotional kickstart just as much as the fanbase. No, winning Saturday doesn’t make last weekend any better. It doesn’t even mean this team will end up being any good but a win at least gets this team going back in the right direction. A dominating win let’s this group feel like a GOOD football team again. I still believe the ingredients are there to be a good football team but it’s going to take some players at key positions elevating their play.

The weather might be nasty Saturday which could force both offenses to the ground. In the past, that would be a very good thing for Auburn. But I don’t feel as comfortable in 2020 about that situation. Still, despite the Hogs capturing their first win last week, they haven’t necessarily looked like an elite squad. It took 4 turnovers including a pick 6 for the Hogs to pull off last week’s upset. Their offense has yet to cross the 300 yard threshold & are averaging a pretty terrible 4.2 yards a play. If they win Saturday it will be because the Tigers turn the ball over too much & aren’t able to mentally shake last week’s loss.

However, I think this team shows up Saturday and plays better football. Specifically, I think Saturday becomes the Tank Bigsby show with the Tigers leaning on their explosive freshman and he responds by going over the century mark and putting some TDs on the board. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Hogs offense to make some big plays but struggle to finish drives. Franks can be turnover prone at times & I think a couple of picks turn this game into a blowout in the 2nd half.

Auburn 48, Arkansas 17 (Auburn wins and covers; over)

—AUNerd

Arkansas fans haaaaaaaaaaaate Chad Morris. Arkansas fans haaaaaaaaaaaaaaate Gus Malzahn. I don’t think our head coach much cares for Arkansas, either. These revenge games haven’t worked out for Arkansas very well. Auburn’s got some stuff to work out Saturday. If this game is close, Auburn has some soul searching to do. But this game won’t be close.

Auburn 56 Arkansas 3 (Auburn wins and covers; over)

—Josh W

I think this is a case of two teams who need a win desperately for various reasons. Auburn needs to win this game to prove to itself that it isn’t a bad football team, it just had a bad game. Arkansas needs to win because they got bad blood, but they used to have mad love. Now they got problems and I don’t think they can solve them, etc.

If Auburn and Chad Morris drop a fifty-spot on the hogs, they would be so angry they may never recover. However, if Gus has proven anything to us it is that he is vindictive.

Auburn 55, Arkansas 17 (Auburn wins and covers; over)

—Son of Crow

Man, I’ll admit, my confidence is shot after last weekend. It is really hard for me to trust Auburn beating anybody, much less by 18, right now. Nevertheless, this is the type of game Auburn wins big time under Gus, with the fanbase already too ticked off to be able to enjoy it. Auburn has a severe talent advantage, and even though we’re nicked up with some injuries, I expect the Auburn offense to come out with their hair on fire. Down KJ Britt, I do worry the defense may struggle, but I don’t think Arkansas has the ground game to take advantage of it. Tank Bigsby becomes the first Tiger to break 100 yards rushing since Boobee Whitlow in the Iron Bowl. 38-13 Good Guys. (Auburn wins and covers; over)

—Ryan S. Sterritt

If there was ever a weekend that could make me not want to watch football after the extended sports break we had with COVID, it was last weekend. I don’t need to tell you the myriad of ways in which Auburn sucked, but it was disheartening as hell. Now, we get to play a team that might actually be just what the doctor ordered. Gus and Chad clearly don’t have any sort of sentimental feelings toward the Pigs, but I think this is going to be a little tougher than the past few seasons have been. Still, there may be two teams each season that Gus saves a little fun for, and it’s Arkansas and Alabama.

With an impending deluge, we might not be as crisp as we’d like to see, but I can only imagine that the team got its ass kicked in practice this week. Not having heard any “good week of practice” quotes coming from the head man may indicate that we did indeed have a good week of practice. We still need to work on the run game, and I’m definitely not alone in believing that it’s going to be an emphasis this weekend. Pound it and don’t stop until you get it right. Tank shows us more from last weekend, only this time he won’t be alone. Auburn 34-10. (Auburn wins and covers; under)

—Jack Condon

I am really between a rock and a hard place. I am so hurt and disheartened that I am drifting into crazy fan territory of “JUST LOSE SO WE CAN BE DONE WITH THIS”. Auburn will win this game, more than likely. The talent is just there and this is the path Gus takes, looks terrible against the upper tier of the conference (because Auburn is not part of that this year), and then dominate the lower half (the Mississippi’s and Arkansas) of the conference. I don’t know what to expect or what we will see but Auburn should win. I will take the piggies and the points because...this offense isn’t good. Auburn 28-17 (Auburn wins, Arkansas covers; under)

—Drew Mac

The Tigers come into this game on the lowest of lows while Arkansas comes into this game on the highest of highs. Auburn has blown out Arkansas the last 2 times the Hogs had come to the Plains, but after what I saw last week, my confidence in this group has been shaken quite a bit. The lines on both sides of the ball need to take a major step this week as last week was just brutal to watch. With KJ Britt out, it’s time for someone to step on the defensive side of the ball and become the leader of this group. The hope is Auburn will have Jaylin Simpson back this week and not have anyone get thrown out for targeting 5 minutes into the game.

I think Auburn wins this game but it’s going to one of those that will frustrate the fanbase. Auburn 27 Arkansas 13 (Auburn wins, Arkansas covers*; under)

—Dr. Will (*-pick was made with previous line. This is a push on the new line)

After what we saw last week, it’s hard to imagine this Auburn team beating anyone. I’m now convinced You could take any auburn team from the past 15 years and have them play a Pop Warner team in an empty Sanford Stadium, and the Auburn team just wouldn’t win. That said, this Arkansas team is like one of those houses you see from war movies has been shelled, burned, and barely even has a foundation to speak of. We have some serious problems on our hands if we can’t beat this team, especially at home, where over the last 14 months, Auburn has been much better than when they are playing somewhere else. I look for Bo to bounce back from last week’s struggles and see us to an ultimately comfortable win. Auburn 38 - Arkansas 12 (Auburn wins and covers; over)

—Chief

Are we sure we still have to do this? The Panthers have shown signs of life. Everton haven’t lost in what feels like months...because it has been. The Braves won a post-season series for the first time since I was in high school, and then they won another one for good measure! Do I still have to watch Gus and Chad try to get this offense out of first gear against Arkansas?

YOU’RE DAMN RIGHT I DO! This game is “get-right” city. Arkansas is good against the run, and they don’t give up big plays. So guess what, it’s time to put up or shut up with Bo throwing the ball 5-15 yards downfield and over the middle. If you’re going to do it, Saturday is the day. Work those tight ends early. Get your timing down on RPOs. Feed the Tank!

I think things look a little out-of-sorts for the first half, and the defense bends a little more than we like. Then Auburn breaks out in the second half. Think a better version of the Kentucky game. 10-6 at the half, but the final is Auburn 34-9 (Auburn wins and covers; under)

—James Jones

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2020/10/10/21508523/staff-picks-13-auburn-vs-arkansas

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franklong12 · 4 years ago

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huntertales · 8 years ago

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Part One: Getting Better With Age. (The Curious Case of Dean Winchester S05E07)

Useful Links: Last Part | All Episodes Word Count: 5,817. A/N: New episode! I am rather excited for this one, because it's gonna be pretty funny from what you guys have given me. I hope you guys enjoy the first part, more should be out soon!

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Growing old. It was the downside of life most of the population would have to face at point in their life, from their graying hair and wrinkles starting to develop on sagging skin, there was no way out of it. Unless you could devout thousands of dollars for risky surgeries and pumping yourself full of toxic drugs for a chance to look five years younger from your actual age. Or, you could take the much cheaper and riskier route, become a hunter. For those who devoted their lives to tracking down supernatural creatures, they wouldn't get to see their youth slowly drain away due to the years of time catching up with them. The stress of constantly putting your life on the line and unhealthy diet of junk food and diner food prematurely ages a hunter. Mostly the cause of death was by whatever monster they were hunting, and for those lucky few who got out, it would only be a matter of time before the past would catch up to them, destroying the little fantasy of normality.

But there was always special circumstances that people had their lives cut short—sickness, accidents, murder—the list could go on and on. Sometimes there was a strange cause of death that made headlines and had medical professions scratching their heads in confusion at what could have gone wrong, their precious science couldn't explain why a healthy young man in his late twenties dropped dead due to his heart giving out. Not quite uncommon, if he had a history of heart problems—and why he looked like he was in his late eighties when he passed.

You and the boys were down at the morgue where the body was kept, dressed in the usual formal gear, you placed up the fake badges to the woman that told her you were CDC. She stared at them for a few seconds, inspecting with a close eye, you noticed she seemed a bit skeptical when she looked up at Dean. "You expect me to believe you're CDC?" She asked, using a tone of voice that you couldn't tell if she was joking or being dead serious. Sam brushed off the suspicion as he asked what she meant by that as he tucked the badge away into the inside pocket of his jacket. "It's just that you're a day early. First time in history I haven't sat on my ass waiting for you people."

"New administration." Dean said with a friendly smile. You tried your hardest not to roll your eyes when he milked the little lie, pointing a finger at the woman with his badge still wrapped around in his fingers. "A change you can believe in."

"Right." She responded with a fraction of a smile. The doctor lead you over to the freezers and pulled out the victim, you watched as the dead body of the man you had seen in the news article you read online looked nothing like the picture his wife provided. Your eyebrows shot straight up when you noticed an old man was the one lying on the metal slab with his chest stitched up from the unsuccessful autopsy and sagging skin with thin gray hair. It was exactly what you were expecting to see. "Meet Xavier. Date of birth—April 3, 1984. And I know. I ran the DNA twice. That's definitely him."

"Well, he wasn't big on the sunscreen, huh?" Dean remarked.

"So," Sam asked the doctor, "What's your theory?"

"All I know is," The woman glanced down at the chart she'd done on Xavier just a few days ago for personal reference. She was flabbergasted herself at what happened as you were. “decedent's male, twenty-five years old, and he died old age."

The doctor mentioned moving onto other bodies that needed her attention and to ask if you or the boys needed anything else before walking away. You examined the body for a few more seconds before looking over at the brothers, just from a simple nod, all of you realized this seemed to be your kind of case. Shoving Xavier back into the freezer, you closed the door before catching up with the boys, who were already halfway out the door and heading out into the hallway. The doctor mentioned moving onto other bodies that needed her attention and to ask if you or the boys needed anything else before walking away. You examined the body for a few more seconds before looking over at the brothers, just from a simple nod, all of you realized this seemed to be your kind of case. Shoving Xavier back into the freezer, you closed the door before catching up with the boys, who were already halfway out the door and heading out into the hallway.

You followed behind as you pulled out your phone, deciding to call Bobby, who was the one who suggested all of you check out the case as the hunt for the colt remained for the past few weeks.

"You were right about this one." You said to Bobby after giving, or trying, a formal greeting after he answered the phone. He gave a quick hello before asking you how the trip to the morgue went. "It's definitely a job."

"Thought so." He said. "Any other stiffs in town?"

“Just the one body.” You answered. Bobby asked if there was anything else in town that might count as strange. "Couple missing persons, but usual enough for a town this size.”

"Well, check 'em out." Bobby suggested to you.

"Do you think they're connected?" You asked.

"Call it a hunch." He said.

"You got it." You said, reassuring the older hunter. You were about to hang up the phone, but you stopped yourself, knowing it's been awhile since you'd personally spoken to Bobby. And you hadn't seen him since he was discharged from the hospital all those months ago. You and the boys have been so focused on tracking down the Devil, you almost forgot about Bobby and his own new lifestyle he was still getting used to. "And, by the way, how are you doing? You know, just...in general?"

"Oh, you mean my legs." Bobby responded a few moments later, and from the tone of his voice, he didn't seem all that cheery. But he was sure in the spirits of using sarcasm against you. You furrowed your brow from the answer you gotten from the man, and the insult he'd never used against you before. "Well, I'm just weepin' in my Haggen-Daz. Idjit."

You moved the phone away from your ear when you heard the dial tone, making you realize Bobby hung up on you after giving a very rude goodbye. The boys looked over at you to see why you were staring at your still open phone with an angered expression. You glanced upwards to see their lingering gaze, you shut your phone and placed it back into pocket, giving them an update to how the older hunter was doing.

"Bobby's do great. Sure is healthy enough to be dishing out the sarcasm." You said as your lips slowly forced themselves into a smile. Before either one of them could make a comment, you quickly changed the subject to the matters of the case. "Let's move things along, shall we?"

+ + +

There was only about two people missing in town that were reported missing in the last week, the first on the list was a man named Cliff Whitlow. He'd been missing for exactly a week by his wife, and all though there seemed to have been no signs of foul play, you and the boys decided to give her a visit. Mrs. Whitlow was a sweet older woman who gladly ushered you inside after introducing yourselves as the FBI. You sat on the couch next to her as the boys were right across from you in the two loveseats. You inspected the framed photograph of Cliff who, unlike Xavier, was old by the vicious years of time. It was of him at a golf tournament a few months back with a bright smile, you took notice of the tattoo on his right forearm, Military based if you guessed. You leaned over and handed the frame over to Dean so he could take a look at it for himself.

“That’s the most recent.” Mrs. Whitlow said. You gave her a small smile and nodded when you noticed she was nervously wringing her hands together in her lap.

"How long has he been missing?" You asked her.

"Oh, I knew right away when he didn't come home Tuesday night." She said.

"Is there someplace he likes to go after work, maybe?" Dean asked. "A favorite bar?"

Mrs. Whitlow shook her head, laughing quietly at the question. "No. Tuesdays, he always works a bit late, but he always comes straight home."

You had a feeling her husband wasn't working grueling hours at the office when he was just months away from retiring, at least, from the looks of his age. You looked over at the woman and gave her a smile when you asked, "May I use your powder room, ma'am?" Mrs. Whitlow gave you directions, leaving the boys to keep the questioning going, as you followed the way to the bathroom, like the woman thought. Instead, you made a sharp turn, heading for the hallway and peeking around until you found Cliff's office from the looks of it. You examined the room to see if there was anything suspicious as you wandered over to his desk, skimming over the neatly placed belongings as you grabbed a pile of his mail, flipping through it to see that it was mostly bills or junk. You looked at the obvious places where somebody might hide a hex bag, but when you came up blank, you spotted Cliff's suit jacket placed over his computer chair.

You wandered over to the other side of the desk and bent down, searching the outside pockets, only to feel lint and a few useless pennies, but when you checked the inside, you gotten something a bit suspicious. You took out what appeared to be a crumpled receipt, and from the charges, they weren't for a pack of smokes and junk food he was secretly trying to hide from his wife. You scoffed at his excuse working late at the office, someone was trying to work through a midlife crisis, and the Mrs. wasn't helping. A young woman was probably doing the job just right for that old geezer. For the right price, of course.

+ + +

The Golden Palace was a place Dean would most definitely love, that is, if he were still single. Dean knew if that he dared to even

about what Cliff was doing to his poor wife, he wouldn't live to see another day of the unfolding apocalypse. And he had his fun in these kind of sleazy motels. Drop a few hundred bucks and a woman of the buyer’s choice for the hour, and maybe even a little longer if they coughed up more dough. You and the boys worked your own kind of magic to get the room number from the woman who ran the joint. For about two hundred bucks, and reassurance you had no romantic relations with the man, she told you where you would find Cliff and the history of his business to her company. She said that Cliff hadn't been around for a week, which was strange, since he was one of her regular customers that had been coming for the past few years, or since his wife had probably stopped giving what he wanted. Before you departed, she gave you a warning not to make a commotion in her establishment. She had paying customers who liked discreteness, the last thing she needed was one of you disrupting her business for unfaithful spouses and very lonely lovers.

"Well, at least he's consistent." Sam said, walking down the hallway before making a right turn, following behind you. You stopped for a second to look at the room numbers to see which one Cliff was in, you pointed a finger at the very end of the hall and proceeded walking forward to the door. "Same room every Tuesday, hourly rates."

“Hope I got that kind of kick when I’m his age.” Dean said. You couldn't help yourself but smile ever so slightly at the thought an old Dean, with wrinkles and graying hair. You wondered what he might look like if he ever gotten to his sixties.

"Yeah, like either of us will live that long." Sam remarked. You knew that was a given fact for hunters not to live very long like most people, and the rules would be no exception for the three of you. You put your attention to the door that stood just a few feet away from you. A light pink heart with the numbers forty-four were printed in the middle. This was Cliff's room, where he spent his Tuesdays. "So, what do you think's in there?"

Your nose wrinkled at the thought of Cliff’s dead body in the room, reduced to nothing more than a decomposition, or worse, ashes and bones after the hands of time had worked rapidly on him like they had to Xavier. “A wrinkly, gooey corpse?” You thought out loud.

Either way, whatever was lying behind the closed door, you and the boys were going to discover what it was. Sam took the liberty of pulling out his lockpick and unzipped it, looking for the right tools as you and Dean stood guard, looking around at the narrow hallway, waiting for any possible bystanders that might come out of the rooms at the wrong time. Everything remained calm and nothing popped out as out of the ordinary, you continued watching the hall, until you heard a male yelling on the top of his lung, right behind the closed door you stood next to. From the sounds, you honestly thought somebody was in danger, so the boys did what was necessary. Sam used his shoulder to ram into the door, breaking it down with no effort as him and his brother barged inside to see what the commotion was all about. But....it wasn’t what you were expecting.

You managed to catch a glimpse of what was going on behind the Winchesters' tall frames. A man lying in bed with a woman was caught off guard from seeing yourself and two men twice your size standing in front of you. But it seemed he wasn't paying for just one friend, another one popped out from beneath the sheets to see what the commotion was all about, your eyebrows raised at what you accidentally stumbled upon. You gave the women an apologetic smile, hoping they wouldn't get the idea the man inside the bed was your husband as they scurried off into the bathroom for safety.

"Sorry, uh..." Dean tried apologizing for the accidental mishap as he began to slowly back out of the room. "Got the wrong room."

"Close the door!" The man shouted at the three of you in anger.

You were about to do just that, but your eyes drifted over to his right forearm that laid on top of the sheets, he had a tattoo of someone that also liked this room. You inspected it for just a second, only to realize, you understood why it looked so familiar. You heard Sam quietly scoff underneath his breath, seeming to make the same discovery as you did. "Hey. Nice tattoo." Sam said. He began walking over to the dresser, deciding all of you were going to stay for a little while, after all. You crossed your arms over your chest as you stared at the man lying in bed with a casual expression when you had a hunch of what was going on here. "Happen to know anybody named Cliff Whitlow?"

Your lips stretched into a smirk when you inspected his reaction at the accusation, his body tensed up as his jaw tightened. He replied a few moments later, denying any knowledge of this stranger. "Never heard of him."

“Well, that’s weird.” Sam said. He pulled out his driver's license and turned around to look at the man. "Because you're carrying his wallet.”

Beside the matching tattoo and wallet, there was another piece of information that Mrs. Whitlow gave you before you left. You walked over to the bed and took it upon yourself to pull up the sheets, ignoring his attempts at trying to hide whatever it was. Your eyes dropped to his stomach, where you noticed was the darkish red spot, exactly where she told you.

"Huh." You muttered underneath your breath, dropping the sheets back to the bed. You looked up at Cliff as gave him a smile, he quickly looked down at any spot on the bed, knowing he was caught. "Your wife told us about your birthmark there. And may I say, really sweet woman. Been worried sick about you." You stressed the importance of his wife's worries as you stepped back. Taking a moment to see what had become of him, you knew he looked nothing like his photograph Mrs. Whitlow showed you. The man lying in bed was young and fit, to be honest, he was quite handsome. "Well, you look great, Cliff. Did you get some work done for the Mrs?"

Cliff let out a heavy sigh, knowing there wasn't much more of this lie he could keep pushing on forever. You could tell he was guilty at the mentions of his wife you kept pushing on him. He looked over at the woman that were hovering out from the bathroom, wondering what was going on. "Could you give us some privacy?"

In under just a few minutes Cliff was out of bed, dressed in some tacky looking silk robe as the women escorted themselves out the bathroom and to the open door. Only before they left, each of them put out their palms, demanding a full payment, despite only being here for half the session. Cliff forked out all of the cash from his wallet and gave it to them, quickly whispering goodbye as the women headed down the hall, and out of sight when he closed the door. Cliff quickly looked over at you and the boys, trying to put out another situation before it could get worse.

"Please don't tell my wife. I'm begging you. As far as she knows, I'm dead." He said, pleading with all of you in a rushed state. You narrowed your eyes on him, making the man assume you were falling for his little act. “For the love of God, let’s keep it that way.”

“How can you possibly be Cliff Whitlow?” Dean asked, managing to get a question in between the young man’s pleads to keep his infidelity hush.

"I can't tell you." Cliff said, giving you the wrong answer.

"Well," You gave the man a compromise, "Either you tell us or we tell your heartbroken, worried wife—"

"Okay! Okay!" Cliff said. You could tell from playing hard ball he would tell you just about anything you wanted to know. You crossed your arms over your chest, waiting for him to answer the question. "It was a game."

"Like...Xbox?"

"What's Xbox? No. Poker—high stakes. Instead of cash, you play for years.” Cliff said, trying to explain how he got like this. You and the boys stared at him with a funny expression, wondering what he was trying to get at. "Look, I know it sounds crazy. Guy comes up to me at a bar, invites me to play. Gives me twenty-five of these weirdo poker chips, right? Chants some mumbo humbo over them, says now they're twenty-five years. I'm laughing...but then I come out up. And look at me."

"What was he chanting?" Sam asked, Cliff laughed at his question.

“How should I know? All I know is, my bad hip's good, I threw away my glasses. One of those ladies was here for free!" Cliff said with a growing smile, seeming a little bit too happy at his new found youth. "Man's some kind of miracle worker."

"What does this miracle worker look like?" You asked, wondering what you could be dealing with.

"Just a guy. Maybe thirty-five, brown hair. Irish accent. His name was Patrick.” Cliff explained to the three of you. Dean wondered where he could find this generous fellow, but it might be hard from the answer you gotten back. "He said he likes to keep moving. Never stays in bar long. And he finds you.” You nodded your head, deciding any sort of information on this miracle worker was better than nothing. The boys headed to the front door, making you follow behind and be the last one to lingering in the doorway. As you were about to step out into the hall, Cliff stopped you for a second from what he said. "Hey, have I seen you before?”

You looked over your shoulder and gave him a confused look from his question. “I don't think so.”

"Maybe in my dreams, but from the looks of it, all of them are coming true. Especially now I get to see such a pretty face in real life.” Cliff said with the type of smile that made you realize what he was doing. You quietly chuckled to yourself at the old geezer’s attempts at flirting with you. He was probably one of those old guys would hit on just about anything in the bar after, trying to recapture what they had back in their younger years and would give anything to feel that way again. But it seemed he gotten exactly what he wished for. And he was testing his new found luck, wondering what he could get away with. You rolled your eyes as he gave you a sly wink, a smile crept across your lips. “Yeah, I still got it.”

"Stay classy, Cliff." You said, knowing he was sleazy as they came. He’d been out of the playing field for well over a few decades, and it seemed he would hit on just about anything that moved. You shut the door and looked straight ahead with the intentions of seeing the boys farther down the hall than you, but there Dean stood, not even half a foot from where you were. From the look on his face, he wasn't all that happy on the pass Cliff tried to pull over on you. You couldn't help yourself but smile at how he was acting as you placed your hand on his chest, keeping him at bay. You shut the door and pushed him lightly, making him take a step back. "Relax. It was just a stupid pass.”

"Guy might not a grandpa, but I could take him.” It was the Dean that rarely came out to show, the jealous and overbearing man, showing his teeth for anyone that would wanna go against him. You couldn't take him seriously when he got like this.

"Oh, I know." You said, agreeing with him. You slowly ran a hand down his chest as your lips stretched farther into a smile, feeling his muscles underneath his shirt that he developed over the years from the years of hunting, despite his terrible eating habits. "Let's go, Killer.”

Dean was tempted for a few more moments to see if he wanted to go against some guy that was just turned into his thirties again. Cliff was a scumbag who deserved someone to give his younger face a black eye. He was cheating on his wife and getting himself caught up in dark magic from the sounds of it. Dean stared at the door, but when he realized you were already down the hall with cell phone in hand to call Bobby, he decided his effort would be better placed somewhere else. You looked over your shoulder just in time to see that Dean caught up with you and Sam, exactly at the same time you heard Bobby pick up the phone again.

You told Bobby what you had learned from Cliff, from the high risk poker game that played for the years of someone and seeing the man looking at least a few decades younger. The boys followed behind as you wandered back outside and heading down the sidewalk. “It sounds crazy, right?” You asked the older hunter.

“No. There's lore on it. Goes back centuries. Traveling card player pops into town. You beat him, you get your best years back. 'Course, most folks lose.” Bobby explained to you. You made a remark about how it made sense for why Xavier, a healthy young man, was lying in the morgue and Cliff was having the time of his life. “Supposedly, this player's a hell of a card shark. Got a lot of years in the bank. You find the bar he's working in yet?”

“There's a lot of them in town.” You said. “One of us is gonna have to make a list before splitting up.”

“Well, why are you still talking to me?”

You tighten your grip on the phone when Bobby hung up on you again without saying goodbye, or, not dropping the sarcasm undertone. “He's such a little…” While you were tempted into taking the low road and call him a name you would regret, you inhaled a deep breath to try and calm down. Again, you reminded yourself that Bobby was under a lot of stress, and old men had the tendency of being just a tad bit grumpy.

+ + +

After spending the rest of the afternoon searching every single bar that you could find on the other side of town, you and Sam decided to call it quits and pick up dinner after Dean told you it was your job, and make sure to ask for extra bacon. Your legs hurt from walking what felt like ten miles, but in reality, you probably only walked about three and a half. The smell of grease and french fries tempted you into indulging just grabbing one from the pile that was meant for Dean. He wouldn't miss a single one, and they'd be gone in the matter of minutes.

"I can't believe we didn't find anything. Three hours of walking around and all we got is squat." You complained, only managing to get a few words out at a time while you chewed on the hot fry. “Not to mention how out of shape I feel. I mean, you need me to do research for five hours straight? No problem. Walk around town? It's torture. I mean, I used to go running every morning before I started hunting. Now I’m lucky if I eat something that's not gonna clog my arteries.”

Sam laughed at what you were saying, while you reached for another fry. “Yeah, this lifestyle isn't all that great when it comes to a balance diet. But I try.” He said. You quietly scoffed, knowing the man was always making conscious decisions of what the right thing to eat was. "But, hey. If you were serious about getting back into running, and if you wanted a partner...I'd be down."

"Really? Well, not you just gotta drag my ass out of bed and I think we've got ourselves a deal." You said as you reached inside your pockets to fetch out the keys to the motel room. You shoved the key inside the lock and opened up the door, stepping inside first as Sam followed behind. You noticed Dean was back from the sight of his jacket and boots lying next to his bed. From the steam coming out from the cracked bathroom door, it seemed the man was just getting out of the shower. "Hey, Dean? You find anything?"

"Uh, you might say."

The man who stepped out of the bathroom wasn't who you were expecting, and without a second of hesitance, you pulled out the loaded gun from the back of your jeans and pointed it at the man. Sam followed suit, he'd put down the food, in exchange for the gun of his own as he directed to the old man before asking, "Who the hell are you?"

The old man standing in front of you was wearing Dean's favorite navy blue robe, but he looked nothing like the older Winchester. He stared at the two of you with a confused expression, wondering why you were acting like he was an intruder in his own room. "Dude, relax. It's me."

You squinted your eyes slightly, wondering if what you were seeing was real. Dean was...he was older, much older. His hair was gray and his skin was wrinkled, and from the looks of it, he shrank a few inches, too. You lowered your gun and spoke him name in a quiet tone, almost in disbelief, but you were proven to know he was the real Winchester when he mumbled a hello. "Oh my God. What the hell happened to you?"

"I, you know..." Dean hesitantly explained as he walked across the room, heading for his dinner that was still on the table. You followed his every move, not being able to look away from seeing him this way, at least, in his sixties. "Found the game."

"You f—I thought you were good at poker." Sam said, still in shock himself at what he was seeing.

“I am. Shut up.” Dean grumbled, obviously having enough with the bewildered stares from you and his brother like he was a freakshow attraction. He grabbed the burger from the paper tray and unfolded it. "So, you were just gonna shoot some old guy? Is that it?"

"We didn't know what you were. I mean," You gestured to his new physique with your free arm, "H-have you seen you? You look like—"

“The old chick in ‘Titanic.’ I know.” Dean said. You found yourself accidentally smiling at the comparison he drew on his own, and from what you remembered from the movie, the both of them were quite similar looking. "Shut up. It's not funny, Y/N."

"I was gonna say 'Emperor Palpatine.'" Sam said, giving his own thoughts.

You looked away, trying your hardest not to laugh at that comparison, which would only piss Dean off even more. Before anyone could keep this conversation going, your attention was turned to the motel room door when the handle began shaking around before someone swung it right open. Out of anyone you expected to see on this hunt, Bobby was here, you watched with a rather surprised expression as he rolled himself into the room and slammed the door shut. From the last time you had saw him he was still getting used to life in the wheelchair, but now, he seemed to have gotten it down. It's not like he had much of a choice.

"I see you met John McCain there." Bobby said, nodding his head to the much older looking Dean, who still was munching away on his burger.

You nodded your head slowly, "Either one of you want to tell us what happened?"

"Bobby's an idiot." Dean said to you. "That's what happened."

"Hey," Bobby defended himself. "Nobody asked you to play."

Dean scoffed, “Right. I should have just let you die.”

"And for damn sure, nobody asked you to lose!" Bobby yelled at the man.

You found yourself smiling at the sight of a much older Dean arguing with Bobby, it brought up a comparison that made even Sam crack a smirk. "It's like 'Grumpy Old Men.'"

“Shut up, Y/N!”

You looked at the two men with a frown, not expecting for them to lash out at you at the same exact time. Dean gave you a look before putting his attention back on Bobby, still not done with this argument. "What were you thinking? He's a witch. He's been playing poker since guys wore tights."

Bobby looked away from him and stared at a spot on the carpet, "You just don't get it."

"Yeah, I get it, Bobby. You saw a chance to turn the hands of the clock back and get out of that damn chair. Pretty tempting. I can imagine." Dean said, shaking his head at the man's foolish decisions. Bobby defended himself by saying that the man knew nothing what he was going through. And Dean agreed with him. "You got me. I never been paralyzed. But I'll tell you something--I've been to Hell, and there's an archangel there wanting me to drop the soap. I mean, look at me! My junk's rustier than yours! You hear me bellyaching? Huh?"

Actually, you did hear something that sounded a bit off strange. Dean seemed to have found his decision for eating the cheeseburger a wrong choice of his own when he felt a burning sensation settle into his stomach. He fell down to the seat, straining to say that he was having a heart attack, but he was showing all the wrong symptoms. Bobby rolled his eyes from the man's dramatic behavior. "No, you're not. You have acid reflex. Guys your age can't digest certain foods. You're gonna need to put down that cheeseburger.” Bobby warned. You watched as Dean, unwillingly, put down his half eaten dinner, a little bit disappointed at the circumstances he was going to have to live with, for however long until you fixed this problem. "So, you want to keep emoting or you want to talk about solving this little issue of yours? It's got to be the chips."

"I slid 'em across, Patrick did his little witchy number, and you prettied up in a hurry." Dean said, giving you and Sam a bit of a clue to what happened in the game.

"I mean, what are you all thinking?" Sam asked with curiosity. You took a seat next to Dean at the table as Sam stole the next one across from Bobby. "Some kind of magic chips or something?"

"Definitely." Bobby said.

"You remember what he chanted?" Dean asked the older hunter.

"Yep," Bobby nodded his head. "every word."

"All right, let's find out where he stashes his chips." Sam said.

"And steal me fifty. Benjamin Button me back to burger shape." Dean agreed with the plan, accidentally burping as the acid reflux began to slowly wear off. "What do you think?"

You glanced over to the much older version of the Winchester, you tried your hardest not to be a little bit weirded out. But it wasn't helping when you realized he was sitting in the chair, in nothing more than just a robe. "I think you should put some clothes on." You suggested to him. “Just so I don’t have an image that will be permanently burned in my brain of your wrinkly body."

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nwbeerguide · 2 years ago

Text

Louisville's Em Sego and Colleen McCarthy-Clarke awarded, for cocktails The Scarlett Rose and The Oriental Express, at this year's Rose Julep Cocktail Competition.

Press Release

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (March 21, 2023) – Eight bartenders from across the region competed for top honors at the 20th annual Rose Julep Cocktail Competition at Mellwood Art Center, as part of the Kentucky Derby Festival’s “Festival Unveiled” event on Thursday, March 16. A panel of expert judges and the public chose the Judges’ Choice and People’s Choice winning juleps, respectively.

Mixologist Em Sego of Louisville’s North of Bourbon took home the Judges’ Choice award for “The Scarlett Rose,” a unique cocktail that mingles rose petal infused Four Roses Small Batch with yellow Chartreuse, lemon oil infused Steen’s pure cane syrup, Bittermens Burlesque Bitters and mint.

Mixologist Colleen McCarthy-Clarke of Martini Italian Bistro in Louisville claimed the People’s Choice title for “The Oriental Express,” a creative mint julep composed of Four Roses Small Batch, umeshu green plum wine, yuzu marmalade, grapefruit bitters, ginger, allspice, cloves, fresh cracked pepper, grapefruit bitters and mint.

The top eight finalists who qualified for this year’s competition included:

Em Sego, North of Bourbon, Louisville, Ky. SC Baker, Bar Expo, Louisville, Ky. TJ Ghant, NoraeBar, Louisville, Ky. Colleen McCarthy, Martini Italian Bistro, Louisville, Ky. Bill Whitlow, Rich's Proper Food & Drink, Cincinnati, Ohio Katie Sherman, The Break Room, Lexington, Ky. Romondo Tatum, Jake's Cigar Bar, Lexington, Ky. Hannah Reid, Rackhouse Tavern, Lexington, Ky.

The event drew hundreds of people who sampled the competitors’ cocktails and voted for the People’s Choice winner.

The judges scored the juleps based on aroma, creativity, taste and presentation. Official competition judges included Kentucky Derby Festival CEO Matt Gibson, Kentucky Derby Festival Board Chair Ken Salvaggi, mixologist Jayma Neese, writer Sara Havens, Katie Molck with LOUToday, Erica Rucker with LEO Weekly, and Kathryn Gregory and Kirby Adams with Courier-Journal.

Congratulations to the winners and a very happy Kentucky Derby Festival to all!

### About Four Roses Distillery Established in 1888, Four Roses is the only Bourbon distillery that combines two mashbills with five proprietary yeast strains to distill and age 10 distinct Bourbon recipes, each with its own unique flavor profile. With distilling and warehousing operations in Lawrenceburg and Cox's Creek, Kentucky, respectively, Four Roses is dedicated to producing award-winning bourbons with smooth and mellow tastes and finishes. Four Roses is available in all 50 states. For more information, visit www.fourrosesbourbon.com or find us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

#Four Roese Distillery #Louisville #Kentucky #KY #Press Release #Kentucky Derby #Bourbon #Mint Julep

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jakehglover · 6 years ago

Text

Why You Need to Stop Biting Your Nails

By Dr. Mercola

Globally, the cosmetic market reached $460 billion in 2014 and is estimated to reach $675 billion by 2020.1 Skin care products have the highest market share, while cosmetics used on nails contributes approximately 11.5 percent.2 Nail polish is the largest segment in the nail makeup category; premium nail polishes make up 38 percent of the market, where mass produced polishes contribute 61 percent. One research firm attributes the rising demand for nail polish in the young population to an increased presence of nail salons.3

While nails are often regarded as purely aesthetic, they are far more than a platform for art and bright colors. According to the American Academy of Dermatology, the shape, texture and color of your natural nail is a window into your overall health, including diseases such as diabetes, heart and lung conditions or liver and kidney disease.4 Some nail symptoms are harmless, while others may be indicative of chronic diseases.

The rate of nail growth is influenced by your nutritional status, chronic diseases, current medications, trauma and the aging process. However, nail biting — onychophagia — may mask some of these changes. Although a relatively common habit affecting people of all ages, many agree it stems from underlying stress or an activity picked up during childhood.

Estimates suggest 30 percent of children, 45 percent of teens, 25 percent of young adults and 5 percent of older adults bite their nails.5 For some, the embarrassment and social stigma related to the appearance of their nails may increase the risk of isolation or cause them to avoid activities they would otherwise enjoy. However, there are even more reasons you want to avoid biting your nails.

Nail Biting Led to Sepsis for One Man

Luke Hanoman was told he was lucky to be alive after he contracted a life threatening infection. Like a lot of people, Luke had a habit of biting his nails. At one point, he tore off a bit of skin and the area got infected. He didn't think too much of the small infection in his finger.6 However, it wasn't long before he started to have flu-like symptoms that continued to get worse, instead of better. His finger swelled and began throbbing, and he suffered cold sweats, fever and chills.

He began having trouble focusing, but thought he was fighting off a viral infection. Luke fought the symptoms for nearly a week, thinking he could sleep off the illness.7 Recognizing his symptoms were serious, his mother eventually called the National Health Service hotline and Luke was taken immediately to the hospital where he spent four days on IV antibiotics to treat sepsis. Luke said:8

"I used to bite my nails all the time. It was a nervous thing. And one day I bit the skin down the side of my nail. It hurt a bit but I didn't think anything of it. I was in work throughout the week and started to get flu-like symptoms which were gradually getting worse.

I thought I could just sleep it off. I went to bed on Friday night and woke up 2 p.m. the next day. I don't like taking time off work and just tried to carry on. I guess that's the dangerous bit. A lot of people would do the same. I think it's important people know that it can target anyone at any age."

Sepsis Requires Immediate Medical Treatment — Know the Symptoms

Once in the hospital, physicians immediately recognized symptoms of sepsis, including red lines over his body and an extremely high temperature. Sepsis is a medical emergency that may become fatal or severely damage organ systems. Nearly 1 million people in the U.S. are hospitalized each year with sepsis and the infection is in the top 10 diseases leading to mortality in America.9

Hanoman suffered many of the symptoms related to sepsis, including disorientation, shortness of breath, increased heart rate, extreme pain and clammy skin. Those who have a weakened immune system, chronic illness or a severe wound are at greater risk.10 While rare, any break in the skin exposed to bacteria may result in sepsis. Poisons released by the bacteria increase the inflammatory response in the body and ultimately lead to tissue damage. Rising antibiotic resistance increases your vulnerability to an overwhelming infection.11

Early treatment with antibiotics is crucial because if the infection goes on too long, it may go past the point at which antibiotics can successfully stop the damage. In the later stages, even killing the bacteria does not stop the cycle of inflammation, organ damage and tissue damage, which may ultimately result in death.12 It is important not to make a home diagnosis but to get help medical help as quickly as possible. Dr. Steven Simpson, medical director of the Sepsis Alliance commented:13

"Waiting too long is dangerous. When you have these kinds of symptoms people need to seek medical attention. A simple little local infection should not give you fever and chills — it should not make you shiver.

I've seen people get sepsis from an ingrown hair and you know how painful that is. If you get that really tender area around your nail bed or around your cuticle, and it's really tender and you start seeing the redness creep up your finger, you should get attention now. Antibiotics could be a lifesaver."

Nail Biting May Lead to Other Health Problems

While sepsis from biting your nails is extremely rare, the habit does increase your risk of experiencing other health conditions, including the following:

Nail infections

Exposure of the delicate skin underneath the nail increases the risk of bacteria or pathogens infecting the area. Bacteria may be transferred from your mouth into the broken area of skin. One of the most common forms of infection is called paronychia,14 causing swelling, pain, redness and pus.

This type of infection results from a disruption in the seal between the nail fold and the nail plate. The infection may be acute, or may become chronic. One of the most common causes of this type of infection is biting your cuticles.

Inflammation

Biting the nail, and consequently the skin around the nail, exposes the tissue to your saliva. While saliva aids in digestion by breaking down fats and other molecules, it can also damage and inflame the skin on your fingertips.15 In the same way licking your lips may cause them to become chapped, your saliva is actually corroding the skin around your nails.

Illness

Although your mouth is filled with bacteria, they aren't the same type of microorganisms residing on your fingers. Biting your nails gives microorganisms on your fingers access to your mouth and digestive system. A number of different pathogens and all kinds of debris get stuck under your nails.16

Herpetic whitlow

Up to 80 percent of U.S. adults have oral herpes resulting in cold sores.17 With a break in the skin, you may infect your fingers with the virus resulting in a fever. The first symptoms are usually painful burning and tingling in the infected fingertip.18 The infection usually takes four weeks to run its course, which can include painful liquid- or blood-filled sores.

Dental issues

Biting your nails interferes with the way your upper and lower teeth come together as you close your mouth. Chronic nail biting can shift your teeth out of their proper position and wear them prematurely. Nail biting also keeps the teeth in constant motion and puts additional stress on the front teeth, which can weaken them.19

Children with braces who also bite their nails have the additional risk of weakening the roots. According to the Academy of General Dentistry, nail-biting may result in up to $4,000 in additional dental bills over your lifetime.

Impaired quality of life

Although many times ignored in medical practices, one study demonstrated those unable to stop nail biting behavior had a higher number of involved fingernails and demonstrated impaired quality of life. Tension while trying to resist nail biting and nail eating behavior were independent variables. Those who bit their nails also reported higher levels of disapproval in social situations.20

Halitosis

Bacteria residing on your fingers or under your nails also may populate your mouth and trigger halitosis (bad breath).21

Ingesting toxins

If you paint your nails, most varnishes contain formaldehyde, a dangerous carcinogenic poison.22

Address the Underlying Trigger

Understanding the risks associated with nail biting may be enough to motivate you to learn strategies to help break the habit. One of those strategies is to understand the underlying trigger often associated with nail biting. Although it's not entirely clear why some individuals bite their nails, many consider it an impulse control issue that ultimately develops into a habit.23

Just like picking at your skin, twirling your hair or pulling out your hair, biting your nails may be one of many habits you develop when you become stressed and anxious.24 Another theory is people use nail biting when they're understimulated, such as being bored, or overstimulated, such as being anxious or stressed.25 In other words, both ends of the emotional spectrum may trigger the urge to bite.

In one study, individuals who had body-focused repetitive behaviors such as nail-biting were put into situations designed to trigger stress, relaxation, frustration or boredom.26 While the situations were artificial, the researchers found those with the highest urge to engage in their repetitive behavior were in the stress or the bored condition. Principal investigator Kieron O'Connor, Ph.D., explained:27

"We believe that individuals with these repetitive behaviors may be perfectionistic, meaning that they are unable to relax and perform tasks at a normal pace. They are therefore prone to frustration, impatience and dissatisfaction when they do not reach their goals. They also experience greater levels of boredom."

The researchers suggest those suffering from these behaviors would benefit from treatments designed to reduce frustration, boredom and modify their intense desire for perfectionism.28 Unfortunately, perfectionism and anxiety are often linked hand in hand as it is nearly impossible to be perfect on the outside without suffering anxiety about what other people believe about you on the inside. Perfectionism is not only a desire to do well but, rather, to do the perfect job or be the perfect person contributing greatly to anxiety.29

Anxiety is now 800 percent more prevalent than all forms of cancer.30 According to a report by the Center for Collegiate Mental Health at Penn State University,31 anxiety and depression were the most common concerns among college students who sought counseling.32 Data from the National Institute of Mental Health33 suggests the prevalence of anxiety may be as high as 40 million, or nearly 18 percent of the population over the age of 18. This makes anxiety the most common mental illness in the nation.34

Break the Habit With Simple Strategies at Home

Nail biting often begins in childhood, peaks during adolescence and then slowly declines with age. Here are some simple and effective options that can help you to quit.

Short and trimmed

Keep your nails trimmed short as having less nail provides less tendency to bite.

Aversion

Use an unpleasant tasting substance on your fingertips or fingernails, such as vinegar, hot sauce or commercially available bitter tasting options. These help to remind you when you unconsciously lift finger to mouth. Another alternative is to wrap adhesive bandages around your fingertips. As your mouth comes in contact with the bandage, it reminds you of your unconscious habit while simultaneously preventing you from biting your nails.

Replace the habit

Replace the habit with another, such as knitting, or using a stress ball or Silly Putty to keep your hands busy and away from your mouth.

Identify triggers

Identify what triggers your behavior, such as the presence of hangnails, boredom, stress or anxiety. Knowing when you're inclined to bite your nails may help reduce the habit. Keeping a journal to identify those triggers may also help.

Behavioral therapy

Consider using behavioral therapy in order to help you break the habit and deal with triggering emotions.

Emotional Freedom Techniques

I also urge you to try the Emotional Freedom Techniques (EFT), a powerful method to reduce the emotional impact of incidents triggering distress and anxiety. It's effective for regular stress management as well as for breaking addictions. EFT is a form of psychological acupressure, based on the same energy meridians used in traditional acupuncture to treat physical and emotional triggers for over 5,000 years.

In the video below, EFT practitioner Julie Schiffman demonstrates the technique you may apply to many problems. You'll find further instructions and photographs on my page devoted to EFT. While it is easy to learn and perform, you may want to seek a qualified therapist for serious or complex issues, which is especially important when addressing trauma-based stress or grief following a loss of a loved one.

youtube

from HealthyLife via Jake Glover on Inoreader http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2018/08/04/why-you-need-to-stop-biting-your-nails.aspx

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sherristockman · 6 years ago

Link

Why You Need to Stop Biting Your Nails Dr. Mercola By Dr. Mercola Globally, the cosmetic market reached $460 billion in 2014 and is estimated to reach $675 billion by 2020.1 Skin care products have the highest market share, while cosmetics used on nails contributes approximately 11.5 percent.2 Nail polish is the largest segment in the nail makeup category; premium nail polishes make up 38 percent of the market, where mass produced polishes contribute 61 percent. One research firm attributes the rising demand for nail polish in the young population to an increased presence of nail salons.3 While nails are often regarded as purely aesthetic, they are far more than a platform for art and bright colors. According to the American Academy of Dermatology, the shape, texture and color of your natural nail is a window into your overall health, including diseases such as diabetes, heart and lung conditions or liver and kidney disease.4 Some nail symptoms are harmless, while others may be indicative of chronic diseases. The rate of nail growth is influenced by your nutritional status, chronic diseases, current medications, trauma and the aging process. However, nail biting — onychophagia — may mask some of these changes. Although a relatively common habit affecting people of all ages, many agree it stems from underlying stress or an activity picked up during childhood. Estimates suggest 30 percent of children, 45 percent of teens, 25 percent of young adults and 5 percent of older adults bite their nails.5 For some, the embarrassment and social stigma related to the appearance of their nails may increase the risk of isolation or cause them to avoid activities they would otherwise enjoy. However, there are even more reasons you want to avoid biting your nails. Nail Biting Led to Sepsis for One Man Luke Hanoman was told he was lucky to be alive after he contracted a life threatening infection. Like a lot of people, Luke had a habit of biting his nails. At one point, he tore off a bit of skin and the area got infected. He didn't think too much of the small infection in his finger.6 However, it wasn't long before he started to have flu-like symptoms that continued to get worse, instead of better. His finger swelled and began throbbing, and he suffered cold sweats, fever and chills. He began having trouble focusing, but thought he was fighting off a viral infection. Luke fought the symptoms for nearly a week, thinking he could sleep off the illness.7 Recognizing his symptoms were serious, his mother eventually called the National Health Service hotline and Luke was taken immediately to the hospital where he spent four days on IV antibiotics to treat sepsis. Luke said:8 "I used to bite my nails all the time. It was a nervous thing. And one day I bit the skin down the side of my nail. It hurt a bit but I didn't think anything of it. I was in work throughout the week and started to get flu-like symptoms which were gradually getting worse. I thought I could just sleep it off. I went to bed on Friday night and woke up 2 p.m. the next day. I don't like taking time off work and just tried to carry on. I guess that's the dangerous bit. A lot of people would do the same. I think it's important people know that it can target anyone at any age." Sepsis Requires Immediate Medical Treatment — Know the Symptoms Once in the hospital, physicians immediately recognized symptoms of sepsis, including red lines over his body and an extremely high temperature. Sepsis is a medical emergency that may become fatal or severely damage organ systems. Nearly 1 million people in the U.S. are hospitalized each year with sepsis and the infection is in the top 10 diseases leading to mortality in America.9 Hanoman suffered many of the symptoms related to sepsis, including disorientation, shortness of breath, increased heart rate, extreme pain and clammy skin. Those who have a weakened immune system, chronic illness or a severe wound are at greater risk.10 While rare, any break in the skin exposed to bacteria may result in sepsis. Poisons released by the bacteria increase the inflammatory response in the body and ultimately lead to tissue damage. Rising antibiotic resistance increases your vulnerability to an overwhelming infection.11 Early treatment with antibiotics is crucial because if the infection goes on too long, it may go past the point at which antibiotics can successfully stop the damage. In the later stages, even killing the bacteria does not stop the cycle of inflammation, organ damage and tissue damage, which may ultimately result in death.12 It is important not to make a home diagnosis but to get help medical help as quickly as possible. Dr. Steven Simpson, medical director of the Sepsis Alliance commented:13 "Waiting too long is dangerous. When you have these kinds of symptoms people need to seek medical attention. A simple little local infection should not give you fever and chills — it should not make you shiver. I've seen people get sepsis from an ingrown hair and you know how painful that is. If you get that really tender area around your nail bed or around your cuticle, and it's really tender and you start seeing the redness creep up your finger, you should get attention now. Antibiotics could be a lifesaver." Nail Biting May Lead to Other Health Problems While sepsis from biting your nails is extremely rare, the habit does increase your risk of experiencing other health conditions, including the following: Nail infections Exposure of the delicate skin underneath the nail increases the risk of bacteria or pathogens infecting the area. Bacteria may be transferred from your mouth into the broken area of skin. One of the most common forms of infection is called paronychia,14 causing swelling, pain, redness and pus. This type of infection results from a disruption in the seal between the nail fold and the nail plate. The infection may be acute, or may become chronic. One of the most common causes of this type of infection is biting your cuticles. Inflammation Biting the nail, and consequently the skin around the nail, exposes the tissue to your saliva. While saliva aids in digestion by breaking down fats and other molecules, it can also damage and inflame the skin on your fingertips.15 In the same way licking your lips may cause them to become chapped, your saliva is actually corroding the skin around your nails. Illness Although your mouth is filled with bacteria, they aren't the same type of microorganisms residing on your fingers. Biting your nails gives microorganisms on your fingers access to your mouth and digestive system. A number of different pathogens and all kinds of debris get stuck under your nails.16 Herpetic whitlow Up to 80 percent of U.S. adults have oral herpes resulting in cold sores.17 With a break in the skin, you may infect your fingers with the virus resulting in a fever. The first symptoms are usually painful burning and tingling in the infected fingertip.18 The infection usually takes four weeks to run its course, which can include painful liquid- or blood-filled sores. Dental issues Biting your nails interferes with the way your upper and lower teeth come together as you close your mouth. Chronic nail biting can shift your teeth out of their proper position and wear them prematurely. Nail biting also keeps the teeth in constant motion and puts additional stress on the front teeth, which can weaken them.19 Children with braces who also bite their nails have the additional risk of weakening the roots. According to the Academy of General Dentistry, nail-biting may result in up to $4,000 in additional dental bills over your lifetime. Impaired quality of life Although many times ignored in medical practices, one study demonstrated those unable to stop nail biting behavior had a higher number of involved fingernails and demonstrated impaired quality of life. Tension while trying to resist nail biting and nail eating behavior were independent variables. Those who bit their nails also reported higher levels of disapproval in social situations.20 Halitosis Bacteria residing on your fingers or under your nails also may populate your mouth and trigger halitosis (bad breath).21 Ingesting toxins If you paint your nails, most varnishes contain formaldehyde, a dangerous carcinogenic poison.22 Address the Underlying Trigger Understanding the risks associated with nail biting may be enough to motivate you to learn strategies to help break the habit. One of those strategies is to understand the underlying trigger often associated with nail biting. Although it's not entirely clear why some individuals bite their nails, many consider it an impulse control issue that ultimately develops into a habit.23 Just like picking at your skin, twirling your hair or pulling out your hair, biting your nails may be one of many habits you develop when you become stressed and anxious.24 Another theory is people use nail biting when they're understimulated, such as being bored, or overstimulated, such as being anxious or stressed.25 In other words, both ends of the emotional spectrum may trigger the urge to bite. In one study, individuals who had body-focused repetitive behaviors such as nail-biting were put into situations designed to trigger stress, relaxation, frustration or boredom.26 While the situations were artificial, the researchers found those with the highest urge to engage in their repetitive behavior were in the stress or the bored condition. Principal investigator Kieron O'Connor, Ph.D., explained:27 "We believe that individuals with these repetitive behaviors may be perfectionistic, meaning that they are unable to relax and perform tasks at a normal pace. They are therefore prone to frustration, impatience and dissatisfaction when they do not reach their goals. They also experience greater levels of boredom." The researchers suggest those suffering from these behaviors would benefit from treatments designed to reduce frustration, boredom and modify their intense desire for perfectionism.28 Unfortunately, perfectionism and anxiety are often linked hand in hand as it is nearly impossible to be perfect on the outside without suffering anxiety about what other people believe about you on the inside. Perfectionism is not only a desire to do well but, rather, to do the perfect job or be the perfect person contributing greatly to anxiety.29 Anxiety is now 800 percent more prevalent than all forms of cancer.30 According to a report by the Center for Collegiate Mental Health at Penn State University,31 anxiety and depression were the most common concerns among college students who sought counseling.32 Data from the National Institute of Mental Health33 suggests the prevalence of anxiety may be as high as 40 million, or nearly 18 percent of the population over the age of 18. This makes anxiety the most common mental illness in the nation.34 Break the Habit With Simple Strategies at Home Nail biting often begins in childhood, peaks during adolescence and then slowly declines with age. Here are some simple and effective options that can help you to quit. Short and trimmed Keep your nails trimmed short as having less nail provides less tendency to bite. Aversion Use an unpleasant tasting substance on your fingertips or fingernails, such as vinegar, hot sauce or commercially available bitter tasting options. These help to remind you when you unconsciously lift finger to mouth. Another alternative is to wrap adhesive bandages around your fingertips. As your mouth comes in contact with the bandage, it reminds you of your unconscious habit while simultaneously preventing you from biting your nails. Replace the habit Replace the habit with another, such as knitting, or using a stress ball or Silly Putty to keep your hands busy and away from your mouth. Identify triggers Identify what triggers your behavior, such as the presence of hangnails, boredom, stress or anxiety. Knowing when you're inclined to bite your nails may help reduce the habit. Keeping a journal to identify those triggers may also help. Behavioral therapy Consider using behavioral therapy in order to help you break the habit and deal with triggering emotions. Emotional Freedom Techniques I also urge you to try the Emotional Freedom Techniques (EFT), a powerful method to reduce the emotional impact of incidents triggering distress and anxiety. It's effective for regular stress management as well as for breaking addictions. EFT is a form of psychological acupressure, based on the same energy meridians used in traditional acupuncture to treat physical and emotional triggers for over 5,000 years. In the video below, EFT practitioner Julie Schiffman demonstrates the technique you may apply to many problems. You'll find further instructions and photographs on my page devoted to EFT. While it is easy to learn and perform, you may want to seek a qualified therapist for serious or complex issues, which is especially important when addressing trauma-based stress or grief following a loss of a loved one.

#VitalityPath

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maxwellyjordan · 6 years ago

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Police and prosecution roundup

After parking lot shooting Pinellas County, Florida sheriff “claim[ed] his hands were tied by Florida’s Stand Your Ground law. But that is not true” [Jacob Sullum, Reason, more; David French, NRO]

Major USA Today story on origins of Baltimore’s devastating crime and murder wave [Brad Heath; Jonathan Blanks, Cato]

Related: in Baltimore’s Gun Trace Task Force police scandal, plea bargains punished the innocent [Capital News Service investigation by Angela Roberts, Lindsay Huth, Alex Mann, Tom Hart and James Whitlow: first, second, third parts]

California Senate votes 26 to 11 to abolish felony murder rule, under which participants in some serious crimes face murder rap if others’ actions result in death [ABA Journal, bill]

New Jersey’s reforms curtailing cash bail, unlike Maryland’s, seem to be working reasonably well [Scott Shackford; longer Shackford article on bail in Reason; earlier here, here, etc.]

“Miami Police Union Says Head-Kicking Cop ‘Used Great Restraint,’ Shouldn’t Be Charged” [Jerry Iannelli, Miami New Times]

Tags: Baltimore, California, Florida, guns, Maryland, New Jersey, police, police unions, stand your ground

Police and prosecution roundup is a post from Overlawyered - Chronicling the high cost of our legal system

from Law https://www.overlawyered.com/2018/07/crime-and-punishment-roundup-9/ via http://www.rssmix.com/

#law #justice

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auburnfamilynews · 5 years ago

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Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images

Auburn was pretty durn good on special teams in 2018 and have a chance to be elite in 2019.

SEC Media Days has come and gone. Auburn starts fall camp at the end of next week. Preseason watch lists are dropping daily. Hot takes are hotter than ever from the talking heads. The weather is teasing us with late September, early October temperatures. It’s almost here folks. Auburn football is coming.

But we must wait a tad longer before kickoff so it’s important we pass the time productively. So starting today, the wise scribes here at C&M will take an in depth look at each position for the 2019 version of the Auburn Tigers. Today, it’s the often overlooked component of a football team but one that is vitally important to any successful season - special teams.

Departures

Ryan Davis - 22 punt returns 117 yds 9.9 avg

Ian Shannon - Holder

Returners

Anders Carlson (rSophomore) - 15/25 FG (60%) 44/44 XP (100%)

Arryn Siposs (Junior) - 56 punts 2,476 yds 44.2 avg

Noah Igbinoghene (Junior) - 11 kick returns 311 yds 28.3 avg TD

Jordyn Peters (Junior) - 2 punt returns 39 yds 19.5 avg

JaTarvious Whitlow (rSophomore) - 3 kick returns 80 yds 26.7 avg

Christian Tutt (Sophomore) - 5 punt returns 65 yds 13 avg

Bill Taylor (Sophomore) - Long snapper

Newcomers

Strength - Experience

There were a bunch of new faces on Auburn’s special teams unit last season. Arguably the greatest kicker in Auburn history was gone as was his holder and long snapper. The Tigers also had to replace punt returner Stephen Roberts and were breaking in a new punter who had never actually played a game of American football in his life. Something that made itself evident early in the season.

I'm 100% certain that for a split second Arryn Siposs forgot what sport he was playing lol pic.twitter.com/yK3JV5k6z4

— AUNerd (@AUSportsNerd) October 10, 2018

Despite all the turnover, the results were encouraging. The Tigers finished 43rd overall in special teams per S&P+ but were top 5 in punt efficiency and kickoff efficiency, 16th in punt return efficiency and 39th in kick return efficiency. Almost all of those pieces return in 2019. Australian import Arryn Siposs got better and better as the season went on and has a chance to become the best punter in the SEC in 2019. Anders Carlson was money from inside 50 going 12/15 in his debut season. Noah Igbinoghene averaged 5 more yards a return last season and even found paydirt for the first time in his career as a kick returner.

But most exciting about last year’s special teams unit was its ability to block both field goals and punts. Marlon Davidson pulled off the rare feat of blocking a field goal in three straight games while Jordyn Peters became a punt block specialist, finishing 2nd in the nation last year with three punt blocks, one going for a touchdown against Arkansas. Auburn will have to find a new punt returner and will have a new man holding kicks, but the majority of this special teams unit returns in 2019 and has a chance to become one of the best in the country.

Great job by Davidson getting skinny in the hole to slide through and make the block Dude played one of his best games Saturday until his injury pic.twitter.com/xrDet88kxi

— AUNerd (@AUSportsNerd) October 18, 2018

Weakness - Long Field Goals

Good news, the biggest weakness Auburn had last season is avoidable if the coaching staff just elects to play the field position game behind their great defense and not attempt 50+ yard field goals. Bad news, they decided not to do that time and time again last year....

I tweeted this stat last season but I feel like it’s important to address again. Before last year, Auburn’s five previous kickers attempted a grand total of 1 field goal from 50+ yards in their first season as starter. That one attempt came from Daniel Carlson. Anders Carlson? He attempted NINE field goals from that distance as a redshirt freshman, only hitting two of them. Anders absolutely has the power to hit from that deep but it was clear the accuracy had not yet developed but Auburn’s braintrust asked him to do it again and again despite having a good punter and a very good defense. It was maddening...

Hopefully, Auburn both won’t need Anders to hit so many field goals from that deep in 2019 and his accuracy from deep improves in those hopefully limited tries. It’s clear he’s got the tools to be another elite kicker for the Tigers over the next three years but that’s going to mean some patience from the coaching staff as well.

Prediction

My guess is Christian Tutt takes over as Auburn’s punt returner though there are a plethora of great options in guys like Javaris Davis and Matthew Hill. Iggy will undoubtedly continue to be the top guy on kick returns but I would look for Shaun Shivers and Anthony Schwartz to get more looks back there too. I listed Mark-Antony Richards and Ja’Varrius Johnson as two freshman who could have a chance to make an impact in the return game as well though I think it’s unlikely either see many meaningful reps back there next season.

Auburn’s special teams unit was really good last year and could be even better in 2019. While it will be hard to replicate the success they had in blocking punts and kicks, they will at least keep opposing coaches up late sweating over that aspect of the game plan given the proven success Auburn has had at both in recent seasons. I am really excited to see Siposs and Carlson’s respective developments and whether Iggy can break another 1-2 more returns off in 2019.

War Eagle!

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2019/7/25/8909127/2019-auburn-football-position-preview-special-teams

#IFTTT #Blogger #auburn #auburn fast #wareagle #AuburnFamilyNews #war eagle #sec #football news #aubu

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johnaculbreath · 6 years ago

Text

Police and prosecution roundup

Major USA Today story on origins of Baltimore’s devastating crime and murder wave [Brad Heath; Jonathan Blanks, Cato]

California Senate votes 26 to 11 to abolish felony murder rule, under which participants in some serious crimes face murder rap if others’ actions result in death [ABA Journal, bill]

New Jersey’s reforms curtailing cash bail, unlike Maryland’s, seem to be working reasonably well [Scott Shackford; longer Shackford article on bail in Reason; earlier here, here, etc.]

“Miami Police Union Says Head-Kicking Cop ‘Used Great Restraint,’ Shouldn’t Be Charged” [Jerry Iannelli, Miami New Times]

Tags: Baltimore, California, Florida, guns, Maryland, New Jersey, police, police unions, stand your ground

Police and prosecution roundup is a post from Overlawyered - Chronicling the high cost of our legal system

Police and prosecution roundup republished via Overlawyered

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gibsonsflowofthoughts · 6 years ago

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Louisville football preview 2018: No Lamar Jackson, but still Bobby Petrino

Bill C’s annual preview series of every FBS team in college football continues. Catch up here!

Two different stories percolated through my timeline in late July:

Former Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is impressing the Ravens, who are saying he’s further along than they thought he’d be. To those who have been on the “Jackson’s pro conversion will be fine” bandwagon, the response is obvious: Duh. He’d been in an offense (Petrino’s) that uses pro-style concepts.

Without Jackson, Louisville has been picked fifth in the ACC Atlantic division, with zero ACC title votes. Per S&P+, the Cardinals were the second-best team in the league in 2017 despite wholesale turnover and what we’ll call a shaky defensive coordinator hire. And now, with decent continuity (but a change behind center), the Cardinals are predicted to fall into at best the middle of the pack.

Are we complimenting Petrino for prepping Jackson but also saying we don’t think he’ll have his replacement prepped? It’s a slight contradiction, isn’t it? Are we selling Petrino short?

Anytime a team loses such a definitive player, it’s hard to know what to expect.

Oh no! Oklahoma State fell apart when Barry Sanders left. Auburn did for a couple of years after Cam Newton left. Florida still hasn’t had a particularly good offense since Tim Tebow left.

Eh. Texas A&M got a little worse after Johnny Manziel left but didn’t fall apart. The same goes for Navy post-Keenan Reynolds. Maybe FSU sans Jameis Winston, too.

Everything’s fine! Baylor kept posting ridiculous numbers in Robert Griffin III’s absence. Texas and Wisconsin did fine after losing bell-cow backs Ricky Williams and Ron Dayne (and Melvin Gordon, Montee Ball, and 17 other guys), respectively. Missouri won 18 games in the two years after Chase Daniel left. If the program is healthy, it will survive the loss of a star.

Jackson was otherworldly at times, combining stats we’ve rarely seen with highlights we’d never seen. And despite Louisville’s win total slipping in 2017 — a massive missed opportunity, considering FSU’s slippage — he got better after having won the Heisman in 2016. The Cardinals improved from 10th to fifth in Off. S&P+, from eighth to sixth in success rate, and — perhaps most interesting for the NFL crowd — from 21st to 12th in Passing S&P+ and from 16th to fourth in Passing Downs S&P+. Jackson left not only as one of the most dynamic rushing QBs we’ve ever seen, but as a legitimately solid passer, too.

You don’t plug someone into Jackson’s role; you look at all the remaining components and build something new around them. And looking at what the Cardinals have instead of what they don’t, you find hope. Louisville has ...

A four-star sophomore quarterback (Jawon Pass) who completed 70 percent in limited action last year and fills the “pocket passer” niche that Petrino has thrived with in the past.

Last year’s top three receivers, each of whom averaged at least 9.1 yards per target with at least a 50 percent success rate in 2017.

A trio of running backs (Dae Williams, Trey Smith, Colin Wilson) who combined to average 6.6 yards per carry in backup roles. Each is at least 6’ and 220 pounds.

Four returning starters, who have combined for 77 career starts, on an offensive line that appeared to do its job better than the year before.

A new defensive coordinator. The last one (Peter Sirmon) very much did not take.

Granted, the new coordinator is the frequently recycled Brian VanGorder, who hasn’t really been a part of an improving defense in this decade. But we’re trying to be positive here.

When Petrino says he thinks his offense will be better this year, he’s thinking wishfully, but it’s not entirely without merit. His 2018 offense should look like a Petrino offense, and Petrino offenses are usually quite good.

You’re not entirely convinced, are you? That’s okay; neither am I. But let’s not act too surprised when the Cardinals score a lot.

Offense

Succeeding the best QB in school history is never an easy task, so it’s almost good that Pass is in no way a Jackson facsimile. He’s taller and 20 pounds heavier, and he looks like a Petrino QB in the Ryan Mallett (okay, not that tall) or Tyler Wilson mode.

He can run a little bit, too. Not including sacks, he rushed nine times for 83 yards and a touchdown last year. He had six for 55 against Murray State, plus a 23-yarder against Kentucky. This is the smallest of samples, but it’s interesting.

Perhaps also interesting: he took four sacks in 37 pass attempts, three in 22 attempts against Murray State. That was his first taste of sustained action, and that will probably improve, but that’s one more similarity with Mallett/Wilson: they both got hit a lot. So just in case Pass gets hurt, get to know Malik Cunningham’s name. The redshirt freshman is the most likely backup, and at 6’1, 185 pounds, he’s much less statuesque.

Jawon Pass

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

All-conference left tackle Geron Christian is gone, so you can’t say this is a perfect situation for a new QB, but you have to like just about everything else, starting with a trio of potential knockouts at receiver.

Jaylen Smith, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Seth Dawkins combined to catch 147 passes for 2,321 yards and 20 scores last year. Sophomore backups Corey Reed and Josh Johnson caught 11 for 197 in reserve action, too. If Pass looks toward the tight ends, he’ll find senior Micky Crum and sophomore Kemari Averett, who caught seven of seven passes for 79 yards and a score.

The Cardinals do have to replace their top two running backs in Reggie Bonnafon (the QB-turned-WR-turned-RB who didn’t do a heck of a lot at his final position) and Malik Williams, but the trio of Williams, Smith, and Wilson proved as much as possible in a small sample. Williams didn’t get a shot until midway through his redshirt freshman season but averaged 6.2 yards per carry despite over half his carries coming against solid FSU and UVA defenses.

The quantity of options is key. None of the RBs have proved a ton, but any one could turn into a breakthrough back. And with the exciting sophomores (plus a foursome of mid-/high-three-star freshmen) in the receiving corps, UL could withstand injury at WR, too.

When Petrino arrived in 2014, he began pursuing more mobile QBs than those he had at WKU, Arkansas, or UL (the first time). But while Pass will run more than Mallett did, you get the impression this will be more of an old-school Petrino attack, with big RBs and an even bigger QB distributing the ball to a large variety of weapons. That’s not to say it’ll work as well as it often has, but you figure the odds are on Petrino’s side.

Jaylen Smith

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Read Option

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Defense

The improvement of an already awesome offense made the defense’s regression doubly disappointing. The Cardinals ranked 19th in Def. S&P+ in 2016 under Todd Grantham’s leadership, but when Grantham took the Mississippi State DC job, Petrino plucked Sirmon away from MSU. It was a lopsided trade. MSU improved from 73rd to 19th, while UL fell to 84th.

The Cardinals had a couple of problems.

First, though they had four strong play-makers at defensive end/outside linebacker (Trevon Young, Jon Greenard, James Hearns, and Stacy Thomas combined to make 48.5 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks), any time one of the four didn’t make a play in the backfield, opponents succeeded.

This was doubly true for a run defense that ranked 103rd in rushing success rate. The Cardinals didn’t allow many huge plays, but that only matters so much when an opponent can get five or six yards any time it wants.

The other problem was that, when cornerback Jaire Alexander wasn’t on the field, the pass defense was awfully bad.

UL pass defense, six games with Alexander: 51% completion rate, 12.5 yards per completion, 4.4% INT rate, 107.0 passer rating

UL pass defense, seven games without Alexander: 66% completion rate, 13.5 yards per completion, 2.2% INT rate, 157.7 passer rating

Alexander’s gone for good, a first-round pick to the Packers. Corner Trumaine Washington (14 passes defensed) is gone, too, as are top safeties Chucky Williams and Zykiesis Cannon. While new blood for a unit that struggled isn’t the end of the world, it’s no guarantee of improvement.

TreSean Smith

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

As has often been the case in Petrino’s time, UL will rely on transfers. Oklahoma transfer P.J. Mbanasor, Ohio State transfer Rodjay Burns, and four-star JUCO transfer Marlon Character Jr. join four-star sophomore Russ Yeast to fill the CB two-deep. There’s a lot of upside, with no continuity.

At safety, Dee Smith, Khane Pass, and TreSean Smith saw a lot of playing time last year. Dee, a senior, didn’t disrupt much, but Pass and TreSean did combine for seven TFLs.

The front seven will have its own new names. Of that disruptive quartet, only Greenard returns. He’ll need help from some combination of sophomores Tabarius Peterson and C.J. Avery, South Carolina transfer Boosie Whitlow, and JUCO transfer Michael Boykin.

Inside linebackers Dorian Etheridge and Isaac Stewart are back, as are tackles Henry Famurewa and G.G. Robinson. They are experienced, at least, even if they haven’t made many plays.

Jonathan Greenard

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Then there’s VanGorder. Perhaps it’s a sign of the pool of candidates that are available and willing to work with Petrino, but this was — to say the least — an uninspiring hire. This isn’t entirely fair, as VanGorder can hold a fort; in 2012 he inherited an Auburn defense that had ranked 62nd in Def. S&P+ and produced a No. 56 ranking, and after inheriting a Notre Dame defense that had ranked 31st in 2013, he produced an average ranking of 34th over three years.

(We’ll overlook the fact that Georgia had its worst defense in three seasons when VanGorder was an analyst there in 2016, or that Oklahoma State’s coordinator got fired in 2017 after bringing VanGorder on as an analyst. Pointing that out would be superfluous and kind of mean.)

Holding the fort is fine if you’ve got a decent one already. But Louisville’s defense desperately needs to improve. It’s been a while since VanGorder did that.

Special Teams

Louisville turned this unit over to underclasssmen and thrived anyway. The Cardinals improved to 39th in Special Teams S&P+ with a sophomore punter (Mason King, who averaged 43.9 yards), a sophomore kicker (Blanton Creque, who made 17 of 20 FGs), a sophomore kick returner (Seth Dawkins) and, for part of the time, a freshman punt returner (Russ Yeast). Dawkins and Yeast weren’t dominant, but this should remain a strength.

2018 outlook

2018 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep vs. Alabama 2 -17.7 15% 8-Sep Indiana State NR 51.2 100% 15-Sep Western Kentucky 90 16.4 83% 22-Sep at Virginia 73 7.6 67% 29-Sep Florida State 18 -0.5 49% 5-Oct Georgia Tech 53 8.2 68% 13-Oct at Boston College 48 2.8 56% 27-Oct Wake Forest 34 4.4 60% 3-Nov at Clemson 3 -18.6 14% 9-Nov at Syracuse 71 7.3 66% 17-Nov N.C. State 37 4.6 60% 24-Nov Kentucky 64 10.0 72%

Sometimes it’s nice to step back and see what S&P+ is seeing. When a team loses its center of gravity, it’s hard to see a clear picture, but the S&P+ projections can help us cut through.

S&P+ sees a team that loses its QB but otherwise has enough offensive continuity to produce at a top-five level. It sees a defense that bombed last year and now has extreme turnover where it tends to hurt the most (the secondary). Ignoring the defensive coordinator, it projects a fall from 84th to 98th in Def. S&P+.

So there’s a chance we’ll see an even more offense-reliant team this fall.

But there’s a chance we also see a good team. The Cardinals are projected 29th overall; they are projected to take double-digit losses against Alabama and Clemson but otherwise given a 49 percent win probability or better in every game. There are lots of relative tossups, with a projected average win total of 7.1. It’s not hard to envision the Cardinals matching last year’s win total.

This shouldn’t be surprising, by the way. Petrino’s only once won fewer than eight games in 13 years as a college head coach, Lamar Jackson or not.

Team preview stats

Dope article from sbnation.com

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