#“the dumbest trade war in history” - Wall Street Journal

[woobie-wan]

“The UN Charter was drafted in 1945 by people who had learned the lessons that the aggression, isolationism and tariff barriers of the 20’s and 30’s had led the world into a conflagration. Article One makes it clear: threats of annexation are illegal. So are unilateral tariffs in breach of a trade agreement.” - Canadian Ambassador to the UN Bob Rae

Here is some good analysis of why Trump is like this:

"I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don’t know, I’m an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of “The Art of the Deal,” a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, or if you’ve followed Trump lately, you’ll know, even if you didn’t know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call “distributive bargaining.”

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren’t binary. China’s choices aren’t (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don’t buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn’t another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn’t even bringing checkers to a chess match. He’s bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether it's better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”. — David Honig

[meret118]

At the very least, you might want to fill your gas tank, and buy various produce Saturday. Details at the link.

Trump vows sweeping tariffs on oil, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors

Get your prescriptions filled if you can too.

"None of this is supposed to happen under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and signed in his first term, the Journal concluded. "The U.S. willingness to ignore its treaty obligations, even with friends, won’t make other countries eager to do deals. Maybe Mr. Trump will claim victory and pull back if he wins some token concessions. But if a North American trade war persists, it will qualify as one of the dumbest in history."

. . .

The Journal rebuked the president Friday afternoon for his plan to hit Mexico and Canada — U.S. allies, not adversaries — with a 25% border tax. Meanwhile, China — an adversary — will see 10%.

[yourreddancer]

Robin Snyder   from FB

Saturday February 1, 2025

On days like this it is good to remember this observation from the Lincoln Project’s Rick Wilson: “We’re not overwhelmed, we’re under attack.” Yup. From our own government. Holy hell.

In that vein, a quick one tonight for a word on the stupidest economic self-own by a US president ever.

Today Trump, who, historically, pretty much breaks every promise that he makes, for some monomaniacal reason – and also because he is an ignorant manbaby sociopath - kept his ludicrous one to impose 25% tariffs on our two biggest trading partners and allies, Mexico and Canada. He also imposed just a 10% tariff on our actual adversary, China, because President Musk’s businesses import a lot of stuff from China.

To justify this insanity, Trump made up bullshit reasons, like, as reported in the Washington Post, that Canada’s supposed failure to take tougher action against fentanyl operations amounted to “an extraordinary threat” against the US (WTF??), and that Mexico’s government had an “intolerable alliance” with drug cartels.

As with everything with Trump it amounted to a big, err – remembering we’re dealing with Trump - little swinging dick contest. Fortunately for our neighbors to the north and south, they have leaders who do not suffer from the same obvious raging insecurities.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke directly to the American people, noting that the Trump tariffs will “put your jobs at risk, potentially shutting down American auto assembly plants and other manufacturing facilities. They will raise costs for you, including food at the grocery stores and gas at the pump.” Trudeau, smartly, announced a 25% tariff on more than $100 billion imported US goods starting Tuesday, including, ahem, Florida orange juice, Kentucky bourbon, and Tennessee whiskey, with more US imports to follow shortly.

Badass Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico will impose tariffs of its own, noting that if the US really gave a flying f*ck about fentanyl, maybe it could “combat the sale of narcotics on the streets of their major cities, which they do not do.” Ouch.

The US Chamber of Commerce, the most slavishly subservient to the Republican party of any organization ever, with the possible exception of the NRA, has commenced to pants shitting. They put out a statement saying that the imposition of tariffs is unprecedented “and will only raise prices for American families and upend supply chains.” Uh-huh. If only someone could have warned them. (Insert head into egg salad left out in boiling sun for 3 days.)

And here’s the Trump-loving National Association of Manufacturers: “A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico threatens to upend the very supply chains that have made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally. The ripple effects will be severe, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers…Ultimately, manufacturers will bear the brunt of these tariffs, undermining our ability to sell our products at a competitive price and putting American jobs at risk.” Ya think????

The Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, whose editorial board is so far up Trump’s ass it is running into MAGA Mike Johnson in that God-forsaken toxic cavity, has pronounced Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada “The Dumbest Trade War in History.” Seriously. Didn’t anyone but us believe this horrific twice-impeached rapist criminal seditionist who pledged retribution and anarchy was going to deliver it???

Apparently not. Even Kentucky Senator Rand Paul is surprised. This Russian asset/freaking idiot/wearer of the worst toupee in DC proves the old maxim that even a blind squirrel can find a nut ever once in a while, tweeting tonight that “tariffs are simply taxes. Conservatives once united against taxes. Taxing trade will mean less trade and higher prices.” Well, yeah, duh. But conservatives once united against big government before they wanted it in our bedrooms and our medicine cabinets. Conservative used to mean conserving institutions and traditions. Conservatism is dead. There is only Trumpism/authoritarianism and, while Paul, and the US Chamber of Commerce, and the NAM and all these pro-business/hate the libs groups are off the reservation on the tariff stuff, they’re stuck with it. Hope the tax cuts and the shit-canning of regulations were worth blowing up the global economy and sending democracy down the shitter. Buy the ticket, take the ride you assholes.

So how does the madness end? From a White House official as quoted in the Washington Post: “The US tariffs will remain in place until the president determines that the three countries have taken sufficient action to address the U.S. complaints. In Donald Trump’s golden age, we will have only legal immigration and we will have zero Americans dying from Chinese/Mexican/Canadian fentanyl.” In other words, they have no worldly idea what they’re doing. God help us.

Extra Credit:

Elon Musk and his ridiculous goons at the made-up Department of Government Efficiency were, by newly installed Treasury Secretary/stooge Scott Bessent, (and here we thought he was one of the non-authoritarian ones. Damn.) given access to the federal payment system. As Stuart Stevens points out, “This amounts to the most significant data leak in cyber history. Private individuals in the data business now have access to your Social Security information. This violates data privacy laws in every state.” Cool. Cool.

While we rightly shudder and stress over the assaults on our civil liberties and the crumbling of our democratic institutions, it’s important to remember Trump is not just assaulting us.

From ProPublica: “On Friday morning, the staffers at a half dozen U.S.-funded medical facilities in Sudan who care for severely malnourished children had a choice to make: Defy President Donald Trump’s order to immediately stop their operations or let up to 100 babies and toddlers die They chose the children. In spite of the order, they will keep their facilities open for as long as they can, according to three people with direct knowledge of the situation. Trump’s order also meant they would stop receiving new, previously approved funds to cover salaries, IV bags and other supplies. They said it’s a matter of days, not weeks, before they run out.” The American people elected a psychopath. The world will suffer for it.

Ketamine-addled weirdo Elon Musk, in response to some asshole posting on not-Twitter “DOGE is speedrunning government reform - $4B/day in cuts could start THIS weekend. Bureaucracy never saw it coming,” replied: “Very few in the bureaucracy actually work the weekend, so it’s like the opposing team leaves the field for 2 days!” JFC this POS. Is there anyone with a brain around this vile creep? Does he know that 85% of the federal workforce is outside of the DC metro area? Like the park rangers in the national parks, and the meat inspectors, and the TSA agents, and the air traffic controllers, and the doctors and nurses who work at the VA hospitals. Are they the opposing team FFS????? What the hell is wrong with these people??

Thanks so much for reading and stay safe and healthy everyone!!! Remember we are not the crazy ones!!!

[unpassive-viewer]

The Dumbest Trade War in History

That's what Wall Street Journal is calling it.

I'm Canadian. We stand to lose so much from this trade war. I am afraid for single mothers. I am afraid for the houseless. For those in foster care. For immigrants. I fear for those living in Arctic Canada, one of the most food-insecure regions in the world. I fear for myself.

We are going to need our communities more than ever in the coming years.

[savetopnow]

2018-04-06 11 BUSINESS now

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