#<a href=rel=>Ar | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

stoweboyd · 5 years ago

Text

Take Assault Rifles Away

We don't let people buy bazookas, or nuclear weapons. But any talk of taking away assault rifles -- whose only purpose is mass death -- leads to some ominous threats of violence and insurrection from the gun fringe.

In Why an Assault Weapons Ban Hits Such a Nerve With Many Conservatives, Will Wilkerson spells out the ramifications of an assault weapons buyback plan, today:

Bear in mind a critical point: A buyback law could not take effect without approval from majorities in both houses of Congress and endorsement by the president. This is all but impossible without unified Democratic control of government; in fact, because our electoral system puts Democrats at a forbidding structural disadvantage, especially in the Senate, Democrats would need to command overpowering supermajority support to turn such a proposal into law.

In that light, all of these ominous “there will be violence” warnings clearly imply that it simply doesn’t matter whether or not mandatory buyback legislation is enacted by duly elected representatives of the American people with an extraordinary popular mandate, because the wildly outvoted minority would nevertheless be right to regard the law as an intolerable injustice that warrants retaliatory violence. Just ask them.

The likes of Erick Erickson jamming a cocked finger into his jacket pocket and pointing it at democracy may not strike terror in your heart. But the seditious principle behind these blustering, elliptical threats is genuinely alarming. Democracy is what we do to prevent political disagreement from turning into violent conflict. But the premise of Trumpist populism is that the legitimacy and authority of government is conditional on agreement with the political preferences of a shrinking minority of citizens — a group mainly composed of white, Christian conservatives.

Who, you may sensibly ask, granted Tucker Carlson’s target demographic veto power over the legislative will of the American people? Nobody. They got high on their own supply and anointed themselves the “real American” sovereigns of the realm. But their relative numbers are dwindling, and they live in fear of a future in which the law of the land reliably tracks the will of the people. Therein lies the appeal of a personal cache of AR-15s.

Weapons of mass death, and the submissive fear they engender, put teeth on that shrinking minority’s entitled claim to indefinite power. Without the threat of violence, what have they really got? Votes? Sooner or later, they won’t have enough, and they know it.

I am opposed to weapons of mass death in the hands of people who want to use them.

#guns #second amendment #assault rifles #mass death

22 notes · View notes

pensatingbik · 6 years ago

Text

Learning Lang Belta: The Basics List

Oye, xunyamwala!

This is going to serve as a go-to link to pull together links to the various lang belta learning resources I recommend to people. It'll be updated as new resources become available.

Entry Level:

The Lang Belta Memrise Course. Where everyone should begin their studies. Learn your essential phrases and vocabulary here. By the folks who brought you The Expanse Cocktails.

Lang Belta Cheat Sheet by @ItReachesOut. Original debut: Worldcon 75

Da Tékidok Da Lang Da Belta Da Lexica ("Lexica's Belter Vocabulary Spreadsheet"). This is as close to a dictionary as we currently have. Everything is sourced either to something Nick Farmer has tweeted, or confirmed via his Patreon. NOTE: the sheet “Eyepatch & Cork” is valid LB entries that Pirate made that still needs Lexica to go over it and verify the formatting. before moving to the main “Words” sheet. Yes; that is a “Dirty Rotten Shoundrels” reference.

Moving Beyond the Basics:

BELTER GRAMMAR: Tense & Aspect. Tense is about place in time (past, presesnt, future). Aspect is about relation to the low of time (ongoing, habitual, or completed actions).

BELTER GRAMMAR: Mood. Mood describes the speaker's attitude towards what they are saying. Ideas like "must", "should" "would", etc.

BELTER GRAMMAR: This, That, & Which; Interrogatives, Relatives, etc English is very casual about how one deplys words like "this", "that", "which", "who", etc. Belter is much more specific in how one says things. The interrogative such as "which(?)" are not only different from the relative "which…", there can be different words depending on number and proximity, as well as what the subject is (thing, person, time, place…)

BELTER GRAMMAR: Of Being, and Being Of: Copulas, POssessives, and Genitives (NEW 4/2020)

Written Belter: An Alternative Orthography: Why does Pirate often write the digraph "ow" as "ɒ"?

Fo finyish vedi ɒta xunyamwala (“To find other students of lang belta”):

r/LangBelta

Sharing with the Class: Questions and answers to/from Nick Farmer’s Patreon.

The Expanse Discord: Lang Belta channel

The Paine x MacTane Lang Belta Class Convention Scedule (COMING SOON): Introduction To Lang Belta taught by some of the earliest students.

Lang Belta as a Creole Conlang

Unpacking Creole Languages: a 4-part series.

Creole Exceptionalism and the Mis-Education of the Creole Speaker:

Pwof. Michel DeGraff is an MIT Linguistics Professor and creolist who helped Nick Farmer get his head wrapped around creole languages so that he could create a creole conlang.

“Unpacking” heavily cites DeGraff, and is very much an introduction to his (and related sxholars’) ideas around creole linguistics and sociology. “Mis-Education” is by DeGraff and while it’s not obtuse, but it is dense. But Pirate & Lexica Have found the comparisons of Kreyol and French very illuminating when thinking about how Belter works.

These two articles above are for people who want to know more about creole languages and the history of racism/colonialism around them, as well as get an idea of what Nick was going for when he designed lang belta.

More about Belter:

Ars Technica interviews the Creater of Belter Creole from “The Expanse”

Deciper Sci-Fi Podcast ep. 46: Language & The Expanse (w/ guest host Nick Farmer)

Nick Farmer (Lang Belta) & David J Peterson (Dothraki, Valyrian, Trigedasleng) in conversation: “The Art Of Language Invention”. Stay all the way to the end of the Q&A. Yes, Pirate manipulated his place in line so he was last Q. Yes, Pirate’s Belter was once that jankety. So keep practicing!

Nick Farmer on Geek News Radio (NEW JAN 2020)

Q&A With Nick Farmer (NEW JAN 2020)

A Silicon Valley Linguist (NEW JAN 2020)

The Belter Bartender Playlist: videos in & about Lang Belta

Nick Farmer’s Conlang Patreon. Got questions about Lang Belta (or language in general)? Wanna request new Belter words that we don’t already have? Join up, and drink from the source.

#LANGBELTA #TheExpanse #BelterCreole #Belter #Beltalowda #Conlang #beltalowda #lang belta #language

37 notes · View notes

thecyberwire · 5 years ago

Text

Supply chain hacks versus Airbus. Phishing around Google Cloud. Masad Clipper and Stealer on the criminal-to-criminal market. Quick zero-day exploitation. DoorDash hack. Inside JTF Ares.

The Airbus supply chain is reported to be under attack, possibly by Chinese industrial espionage operators. Phishing campaigns impersonate Google Cloud services. A new commodity information stealer is on offer in the black market. The vBulletin zero-day was weaponized surprisingly quickly. DoorDash discloses a hack that exposed almost five million persons’ data. And a look at JTF Ares operations against ISIS shows commendable attention to increasing the enemy’s friction. David Dufour from Webroot on the need for a variety of areas of expertise in security. Guest is Caleb Barlow CEO and President of Cynergistek, discussing the security implications of being CEO of a public company.

For links to all of today's stories check our our CyberWire daily news brief:

https://thecyberwire.com/issues/issues2019/September/CyberWire_2019_09_27.html

<a href="https://www.patreon.com/thecyberwire" rel="payment">Support our show</a>

Check out this episode!

#cyber #cyber security #infosec #cybersecurity #hacking

2 notes · View notes

cidiolopes · 2 years ago

Text

Reportagem Rádio Glesp sobre Cídio Lopes

Reportagem na Rádio Glesp sobre Cídio Lopes de Almeida A reportagem foi ao ar no dia 22 de junho de 2022 às 7horas da manhã pela Rádio GLESP. E foi elaborada por Paulo André Senna, no quadro Histórias de Sucesso. https://amf3.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/HISTORIA-DE-SUCESSO-12-2.mp3 <a href="https://radioglesp.site.radio.br/" target="_blank" role="button" rel="noopener"> Ouça a Rádio…

View On WordPress

0 notes

ao3feed-destiel · 8 years ago

Text

Mixtapes & Feelings

read it on the AO3 at http://ift.tt/2qHbMou

by Archies_Skye

A coda of 12x19 since i needed more of those i decided to write my own! Its been 6 months since ive written a fic sorry if its bad... but in general this is the aftermath of when cas was about to return the mixtape to dean ( lets pretend that lucifer's baby turning cas cRazy didnt happen for a moment shall we?) EnJoY! (Leave comments and kudos

Words: 886, Chapters: 1/?, Language: English

Fandoms: Supernatural

Rating: Teen And Up Audiences

Warnings: Creator Chose Not To Use Archive Warnings, No Archive Warnings Apply

Categories: M/M

Characters: Castiel Winchester, Dean Winchester

Relationships: Destiel, Dean/Cas, Cas/Dean - Relationship, Castiel/Dean Winchester, Castiel & Dean Winchester

Additional Tags: Codafic, ilovecodas, Destiel - Freeform, itscanonfightme, casdean - Freeform, Dean - Freeform, cas, 12x19, season12, Mixtape, Cute, aretheymarriedorwhat, Decentfic, itry, Supernatural - Freeform, SPN - Freeform, I Will Go Down With This Ship, Did they get married, I'm Bad At Titles, they are so married, spn writers just make it canon already

read it on the AO3 at http://ift.tt/2qHbMou

#/users/Archies_Skye/pseuds/Archies_Skye #author #ao3feed #ao3feed destiel #destiel #<a href= rel=>Ar

3 notes · View notes

theliberaltony · 5 years ago

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

You might not know it from the headlines, dear reader, but the presidential contest is not the only election happening in 2020. Control of the U.S. Senate is also up for grabs, and the party in charge of Congress’s upper chamber could determine the fate of many of the policies currently grabbing attention in the presidential campaign. As we noted right after the 2018 election, Republicans are favored to retain a majority in the Senate in 2020, but Democrats also have a realistic — if difficult — path to winning back control. This is the first of a series of regular updates on what’s happening in Senate contests around the country, so let’s take a look-see at the latest developments.

First, the top-line situation. Republicans are favored to hold on to the Senate, as they currently have a 53-to-47 seat edge,1 which means Democrats must gain a net of four seats for outright control, or three seats and the vice presidency, as the vice president casts the tiebreaking vote. What’s more, the competitive races in the Senate in 2020 will probably be on Republican-leaning turf, which should give the GOP a baseline advantage. However, Democrats’ silver lining is that the GOP has to defend 23 of the 35 seats on the ballot next year, and election forecasters Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report currently rate Democrats’ opportunities to pick up seats more favorably than Republicans’. (Though Republicans, of course, can win the Senate by simply hanging on to the seats they have.)

And keep in mind that the presidential race at the top of the ticket may be critical in determining which party wins control because of just how nationalized our elections have become. In the 2016 election, for instance, every state with a Senate race backed the same party for both president and Senate for the first time ever.2

Republicans must defend nearly twice as many Senate seats

Senators up for reelection in 2020, by their state’s partisan lean

Incumbent Inc. Party State median Race Rating* Partisan Lean OPEN R WY Safe R R+47.4 Jim Risch R ID Safe R R+34.9 Jim Inhofe R OK Safe R R+33.9 Mike Rounds R SD Safe R R+30.6 Shelley Moore Capito R WV Safe R R+30.5 OPEN R TN Safe R R+28.1 Doug Jones D AL Lean R R+26.8 Tom Cotton R AR Safe R R+24.4 Ben Sasse R NE Safe R R+24.0 OPEN R KS Likely R R+23.3 Mitch McConnell R KY Likely R R+23.3 Steve Daines R MT Safe R R+17.7 Bill Cassidy R LA Safe R R+17.3 Lindsey Graham R SC Safe R R+17.2 John Cornyn R TX Likely R R+16.9 Cindy Hyde-Smith R MS Safe R R+15.4 Dan Sullivan R AK Safe R R+14.9 David Perdue R GA Likely R R+11.8 OPEN** R GA Likely R R+11.8 Martha McSally** R AZ Toss-up R+9.3 Joni Ernst R IA Lean R R+5.8 Thom Tillis R NC Toss-up R+5.1 Jeanne Shaheen D NH Likely D R+1.7 Mark Warner D VA Safe D D+0.1 Gary Peters D MI Lean D D+1.3 Cory Gardner R CO Toss-up D+1.5 Tina Smith D MN Likely D D+2.1 Susan Collins R ME Toss-up/Lean R D+4.9 OPEN D NM Likely D D+7.2 Jeff Merkley D OR Safe D D+8.7 Dick Durbin D IL Safe D D+13.0 Cory Booker D NJ Safe D D+13.3 Chris Coons D DE Safe D D+13.6 Jack Reed D RI Safe D D+25.7 Ed Markey D MA Safe D D+29.4

*Rating is the median rating among Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report.

**Special election

Open seats are ones with retiring or resigning senators.

FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet.

But declining approval ratings may be a warning sign for endangered Republican incumbents in battleground states. The partisan lean metric in the table above measures how much more Democratic- or Republican-leaning a state is than the country as a whole,3 and all five GOP senators defending seats in states with a partisan lean of less than R+10 saw their approval ratings worsen in the third quarter of 2019, according to data from Morning Consult. And all but one — Arizona Sen. Martha McSally — has a net negative rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating).

Five vulnerable GOP senators’ net approval has dropped

Net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in the second and third quarters of 2019

Net approval in 2019 Senator State 2nd QTR 3rd QTR Change Martha McSally AZ +2.9 +2.1 -0.8 Susan Collins ME -3.9 -5.8 -1.9 Cory Gardner CO +0.3 -2.9 -3.2 Thom Tillis NC -1.5 -5.1 -3.6 Joni Ernst IA +4.5 -4.0 -8.5

Source: Morning Consult

This is particularly worrisome for Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado, who will likely need some ticket-splitting in their Democratic-leaning states to win reelection. Most notably, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s net approval rating dropped about 9 percentage points, falling into negative territory, though it dropped the most among Republican voters, who may come back into her fold by Election Day. Democrats probably need to defeat most or all of these senators — North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is the fifth — to capture the Senate, and they have to be pleased that the public image of these incumbents has taken a hit. Of the Democrats in currently competitive contests (that is, those not rated as “safe” for either party), only Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith saw a decline in her net approval, although it remains fairly positive overall (+13).

Yet it’s certainly not all bad news for Republicans. Recent polling in Michigan, for instance, suggests they have a real shot of putting the state’s Democratic-held seat in play. Two recent polls found Democratic Sen. Gary Peters barely ahead of or in a dead heat with Republican John James, who lost Michigan’s 2018 Senate race but performed better than expected relative to the Democratic lean of the national environment. Although another poll found Peters ahead by 16 points, so it’s not entirely clear yet how competitive this race is, but given that President Trump carried Michigan by 0.2 points in 2016, it should be a competitive environment where James could take down Peters, especially if he can once again outperform expectations.

But we’re a long way from November 2020, so plenty of curveballs could still shake up the Senate picture between now and then. Consider, for example, that former Attorney General Jeff Sessions is reportedly considering a run for his old seat, which Democratic Sen. Doug Jones won in a surprise victory over scandal-ridden Republican Roy Moore in a 2017 special election. Major contenders for the GOP nomination — including Moore, who’s running again — aren’t inclined to get out of Sessions’s way just yet though, as his position in the party is somewhat complicated given Trump’s still-simmering anger over Sessions’s decision to recuse himself from the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. If Sessions runs and Trump openly opposes him, that might make for a wide-open and unpredictable GOP primary. Jones, who is an underdog for reelection, would probably prefer the chaos, but we’ll know more very soon — the deadline to enter the race is Nov. 8.

As in Alabama, the eventual nominees in a handful of other races could influence how competitive they are. For instance, although New Hampshire is very narrowly divided between the parties (Hillary Clinton carried the state by less than half a point in 2016), election forecasters think Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is in relatively good shape to win reelection — the median race rating there is “Likely Democratic.” That’s partly because the GOP lacks a top-tier challenger there, but that could change if a high-profile Republican like former Trump campaign manager Cory Lewandowski jumps into the race. New Hampshire Republicans have said they worry that Lewandowski could harm the GOP ticket, but considering the razor’s edge by which Trump lost New Hampshire in 2016, Lewandowski’s entrance into the race while Trump is at the top of the ticket could make the seat less safe for Democrats.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping that state Sen. Barbara Bollier, a Republican-turned-Democrat who is their likely nominee, can run a competitive race for Kansas’s open seat despite the state’s strong Republican lean (R+23.3). And the GOP candidate most likely to make that possible for Democrats is former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who lost the state’s 2018 gubernatorial race. For that reason, national Republicans don’t want Kobach to win the GOP nomination, but thanks to the crowded GOP primary field, Kobach’s conservative base of support might be enough for him to win with only a plurality. The real Kansas wild card, of course, is Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has done nothing to tamp down speculation that he might seek the seat. Pompeo is a former representative from Kansas and his entry might clear the GOP field — he doesn’t have a potential anti-Trump problem like Sessions.

As for the newest Senate race on the 2020 calendar — Georgia’s special election — there’s also a fair amount of uncertainty there. Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson announced that he will resign at the end of 2019, but Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has yet to announce who he will appoint in Isakson’s place. Some notable Democrats have entered the contest for Georgia’s other Senate seat (that’s right, both seats are up), but so far only Matt Lieberman — son of former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman — has announced a bid for the special election. Notably, Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath appeared to be preparing a run for Isakson’s seat, but decided to seek reelection to the House instead. Republicans are favored in both Georgia races, but Democrats will still want to have strong candidates contesting both seats in case the electoral environment is friendly enough to make Georgia a swing state. The close gubernatorial race between Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams in 2018 could portend a competitive presidential contest there, though Trump won the state by 5 points in 2016.

There will be many more twists and turns in the 2020 Senate race, so watch this space — we’ll be tracking all the ins and outs of the battle to control Congress’s upper chamber.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

1 note · View note

thecyberwire · 5 years ago

Text

Tortoiseshell threat-actor active in the Middle East. Simjacker less dangerous than thought? Decentralizing cyber attack. The Ortis affair. Mr. Snowden’s book deal.

A newly discovered threat actor, “Tortoiseshell,” has been active against targets in the Middle East. The Simjacker vulnerability may not be as widely exploitable as early reports led many to believe. The US Army seems committed to decentralizing cyber operations along long-familiar artillery lines. Joint Task Force Ares continues to keep an eye on ISIS. Canada seeks to reassure allies over the Orts affair. And the Justice Department wants any royalties Mr. Snowden’s book might earn. Daniel Prince from Lancaster University on cyber security as a force multiplier. Guest is Brian Roddy from Cisco on securing the multi-cloud.

For links to all of today's stories check our our CyberWire daily news brief:

https://thecyberwire.com/issues/issues2019/September/CyberWire_2019_09_18.html

<a href="https://www.patreon.com/thecyberwire" rel="payment">Support our show</a>

Check out this episode!

#cyber #cyber security #infosec #cybersecurity #hacking

1 note · View note

glendagreen24 · 7 years ago

Text

Serious Commitment

I wanted to share this with you! Our bride and groom on Valentine’s Day went so far as to have each others’ names tattooed on their arms. The groom said that she did hers first as a gift to him. It freaked him out at first, but then he got one too and he went even bigger. Now that’s a serious commitment! More wedding tattoos here. Originally posted 2016-01-12 12:19:03. var fc_CSS=document.createElement(‘link’);fc_CSS.setAttribute('rel’,'stylesheet’);var fc_isSecured = (window.location && window.location.protocol == 'https:’);var fc_lang = document.getElementsByTagName('html’)[0].getAttribute('lang’); var fc_rtlLanguages = ['ar’,'he’]; var fc_rtlSuffix = (fc_rtlLanguages.indexOf(fc_lang) >= 0) ? ’-rtl’ : “;fc_CSS.setAttribute('type’,'text/css’);fc_CSS.setAttribute('href’,((fc_isSecured)? 'https://d36mpcpuzc4ztk.cloudfront.net’:'http://assets1.chat.freshdesk.com’)+’/css/visitor’+fc_rtlSuffix+’.css’);document.getElementsByTagName('head’)[0].appendChild(fc_CSS);var fc_JS=document.createElement('script’); fc_JS.type='text/javascript’; fc_JS.defer=true;fc_JS.src=((fc_isSecured)?'https://d36mpcpuzc4ztk.cloudfront.net’:'http://assets.chat.freshdesk.com’)+’/js/visitor.js’;(document.body?document.body:document.getElementsByTagName('head’)[0]).appendChild(fc_JS);window.livechat_setting= Find Out More

Serious Commitment posted first on http://www.sedonadestinationweddings.com/

#minister #weddings #ceremonies #walking

1 note · View note

mahara · 4 years ago

Text

موردي نظام مواقف السيارات الأوتوماتيكي في مصر

ميزات الأعمدة الأوتوماتيكية

الشيء المحدد في هذه الأعمدة الأوتوماتيكية هو أنها توفر أعمدة منخفضة للمشغل.

أنها تساعدك في الحفاظ على وصول السيارة.

لها مميزات هامة في إنقاذ الأرواح في منطقة الطوارئ.

يستخدم نوع خاص من الحاجز لمنع دخول المركبات في المناطق الممنوعة.

بصرف النظر عن ذلك ، فهو يساعد في تأمين منطقة وقوف السيارات للدخول ووجود أماكن للطوارئ في وقت واحد.

يشيع استخدام النظام الآلي في المستشفيات ومناطق الطوارئ.

تساعد هذه الأنظمة الحديثة في الوصول إلى التحكم في موظفي الصيانة والتسليم في العمل.

<a href="http://www.egypsaparking.com/ar/%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%.." rel="noreferrer nofollow">www.egypsaparking.com/ar/%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%..</a>.

0 notes

iflicker · 4 years ago

Text

شركة مهارة لإلحاق العمالة المصرية

شركة مهارة وهي شركة لإلحاق العمالة المصرية للسعودية تحترم كل من تعامل معها، وتحترم كل رأي يُقدم إليها، كما تعمل الشركة جاهدة على تلبية جميع طلبات كل عميل بالمواصفات التي يريدها ويطلبها في العمالة التي يحتاجها. لذا شركة مهارة هي الخيار الأفضل لكل العمالة التي ترغب في الالتحاق بالعمل في السعودية. <a href="https://maharahr.com/ar/%d9%85%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%a8-%d8%b3%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%84%d9%84%d8%b3%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b5%d8%b1/" rel="noreferrer nofollow">maharahr.com/ar/%D9%85%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A8-%D8%B3%D9%...</a>

0 notes

egypsa · 4 years ago

Text

فرص عمل للمصريين فى السعوديه

المملكة العربية السعودية من الأماكن التي يبحث فيها الكثير من المصريين عن وظائف بها، وذلك لأن السعودية توفر فرص عمل في جميع المهن والتخصصات المختلفة، حيث يتم توفير فرص عمل في السعودية للمصريين.

بسبب توافر فرص عمل في السعودية للمصريين قامت العديد من الشركات ومكاتب السفر في مصر لتوريد العمالة البشرية إلى السعودية، ومن ضمن هذه الشركات والمكاتب هي شركة مهارة لتوريد العمالة المصرية إلى السعودية.

وهذه الشركة شهد لها الكثير والكثير من العملاء الذين تعاملوا مع الشركة في مصداقيتها الكبيرة.

تعد شركة مهارة الخيار الأحسن والمفضل لدى كل عميل تعامل معها عندما احتاج إلى عمالة بالمواصفات المطلوبة دون خداع.

أفضل شركة توفر فرص عمل فى السعودية للمصريين شركة مهارة هي من الشركات التي تعمل في مجال الموارد البشرية وكيفية تنميتها، حيث تعتبر شركة مهارة من الشركات التي توفر العديد من فرص عمل في السعودية للمصريين. <a href="https://maharahr.com/ar/%d9%85%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%a8-%d8%b3%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%84%d9%84%d8%b3%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b5%d8%b1/" rel="noreferrer nofollow">maharahr.com/ar/%D9%85%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A8-%D8%B3%D9%...</a>

0 notes

theliberaltony · 6 years ago

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Down the stretch they come! No, it’s not the Kentucky Derby — today, Kentuckians will vote for governor in their party primaries. Incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin will likely win renomination in the Republican contest despite being incredibly unpopular. But Democrats have a competitive three-way race between state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, state Attorney General Andy Beshear and former state auditor Adam Edelen. Beshear appears to be in the lead, but it’s unclear how big that lead really is and whether a Democrat can even still win a general election in a state that is now so deeply red.

Until Kentucky’s 2015 gubernatorial race, Democrats held most major statewide offices, and the GOP had won the governorship only once in the past 44 years. But Bevin won handily in 2015, and in 2016 Republicans captured the state house for the first time since the 1920s, giving them full control of state government.1 Thus, state politics now more closely align with Kentucky’s preferences in national races — the GOP presidential nominee has won Kentucky by at least 15 percentage points going back to 2000, and in 2016, President Trump won the state by 30 points.

All the same, Bevin (assuming he wins tonight) may still face a tough re-election fight next November. And that’s because he’s currently the most unpopular governor in the country, based on Morning Consult’s approval data for the first quarter of 2019.2 As you can see in the chart below, Bevin’s disapproval rating has been above 50 percent since the second quarter of 2018, which might have to do with his repeated run-ins with teachers, public sector unions and even his own party.

In April 2018, for example, Bevin vetoed legislation that raised taxes to expand public education spending only to have the Republican-controlled legislature override his veto while teachers rallied outside of the state capitol. He’s also made controversial comments, like when he said school closures allowing teachers to rally at the capitol may have caused children to be “sexually assaulted” or “physically harmed” because they couldn’t attend school.

Bevin’s approval numbers are even worse when you consider just how Republican-leaning Kentucky is. He had the worst approval rating of any governor relative to his state’s partisan lean,3 according to my colleague Nathaniel Rakich’s “Popularity Above Replacement Governor” rankings.

The latest ‘Popularity Above Replacement Governor’ scores

Governors’ net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states

Governor State Name Party Net Approval state Partisan Lean PARG KY Matt Bevin R -19 R+23 -42 RI Gina Raimondo D -11 D+26 -37 HI David Ige D +11 D+36 -25 WV Jim Justice R +14 R+30 -16 CT Ned Lamont D -4 D+11 -15 SD Kristi Noem R +18 R+31 -13 NY Andrew Cuomo D +9 D+22 -13 OR Kate Brown D -3 D+9 -12 CA Gavin Newsom D +12 D+24 -12 OK Kevin Stitt R +26 R+34 -8 UT Gary Herbert R +25 R+31 -6 NJ Phil Murphy D +8 D+13 -5 WY Mark Gordon R +43 R+47 -4 AK Mike Dunleavy R +12 R+15 -3 IL JB Pritzker D +11 D+13 -2 NE Pete Ricketts R +22 R+24 -2 IA Kim Reynolds R +6 R+6 0 ID Brad Little R +36 R+35 +1 NM Michelle Lujan Grisham D +8 D+7 +1 ND Doug Burgum R +34 R+33 +1 WA Jay Inslee D +15 D+12 +3 VA Ralph Northam D +5 EVEN +5 MO Mike Parson R +26 R+19 +7 IN Eric Holcomb R +27 R+18 +9 AR Asa Hutchinson R +34 R+24 +10 AZ Doug Ducey R +20 R+9 +11 OH Mike DeWine R +18 R+7 +11 DE John Carney D +26 D+14 +12 TN Bill Lee R +40 R+28 +12 MS Phil Bryant R +27 R+15 +12 GA Brian Kemp R +25 R+12 +13 ME Janet Mills D +20 D+5 +15 AL Kay Ivey R +44 R+27 +17 TX Greg Abbott R +34 R+17 +17 SC Henry McMaster R +34 R+17 +17 CO Jared Polis D +18 D+1 +17 MN Tim Walz D +21 D+2 +19 MI Gretchen Whitmer D +20 D+1 +19 NV Steve Sisolak D +19 R+1 +20 WI Tony Evers D +20 R+1 +21 PA Tom Wolf D +21 R+1 +22 NC Roy Cooper D +22 R+5 +27 FL Ron DeSantis R +34 R+5 +29 LA John Bel Edwards D +15 R+17 +32 NH Chris Sununu R +41 R+2 +39 MT Steve Bullock D +26 R+18 +44 KS Laura Kelly D +24 R+23 +47 VT Phil Scott R +32 D+24 +56 MD Larry Hogan R +57 D+23 +80 MA Charlie Baker R +59 D+29 +88

A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, the PARG would be -5 (2-7= -5).

Shaded rows denote governors whose seats are up in 2019 or 2020, excluding those governors who are not seeking reelection.

* Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. The partisan leans here were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet.

Sources: Morning Consult, media reports

A big part of Bevin’s problem is that he’s struggling with his base. Morning Consult found in that poll that just 50 percent of Republicans approved of him while 37 percent disapproved. Compare that to the 86 percent of Kentucky Republicans who approved of Trump, and it’s understandable that Bevin is now trying to tie himself to the president, hoping to boost his numbers.

One bit of positive news for Bevin is that he avoided a high-profile primary challenge when U.S. Rep. James Comer — who Bevin beat by just 83 votes for the GOP nomination in 2015 — decided not to run. However, Bevin didn’t escape a primary challenger altogether. State Rep. Robert Goforth is running against him and even loaned his campaign $750,000 (as of early May, Bevin had raised a little over $1 million). But Goforth doesn’t seem to pose a serious risk to Bevin, at least not according to the scant polling we have: A survey from earlier in May from the GOP pollster Cygnal found Bevin leading Goforth 56 percent to 18 percent. Still, 32 percent of likely GOP primary voters said they had an unfavorable view of Bevin in that poll, so Goforth’s share of the primary vote on Tuesday could be an indicator of how strong or weak Bevin is among the Republican faithful.

But today’s main event is the Democratic race. The front-runner is Andy Beshear, the first-term attorney general and political scion whose father Steve preceded Bevin as governor. The younger Beshear squeaked out a narrow 0.2-point victory in 2015, with Bevin winning by 9 points at the top of the ballot. Since they took office, the two have been at loggerheads over many issues, including education, health care and pensions. These fights are one of Beshear’s main selling points in the Democratic primary, but Adam Edelen is running to Beshear’s left, hoping his support for abortion rights, decriminalizing marijuana and renewable energy will attract Democratic voters. And on Saturday, the state’s largest newspaper, the Courier-Journal, endorsed Edelen.

Edelen, the former state auditor, has also been on the offensive, attacking Beshear for his connection to a former aide who was convicted of bribery (however, there is no evidence Beshear knew about these activities). Edelen’s upstart campaign has also been aided by an influx of cash from his wealthy running mate, Gill Holland, and Better Future PAC, an outside group backing Edelen (primarily funded by Holland’s mother-in-law).

Meanwhile, state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins is running to the right of Beshear and Edelen on social issues, claiming that his anti-abortion views and support for coal are more likely to appeal to the rural parts of the state where Democrats have been decimated in recent years.

Beshear currently seems to be ahead, but the only data we have are competing internal polls. Additionally, the two most recent surveys are from mid-April, so it’s hard to know if things have changed substantially in the past month. For what it’s worth, Edelen’s campaign found Beshear in first with 43 percent of the vote, Edelen in second with 23 percent and Adkins in third with 22 percent. Meanwhile, Beshear’s internal poll put him at 44 percent compared to 17 percent for Adkins and 16 percent for Edelen. So Beshear appears to be the polling front-runner, but a win by Edelen or Adkins shouldn’t be ruled out; internal polls are notoriously unreliable, the polling we do have is old and three-way races can be incredibly fluid.

Looking ahead to the general election in November, election handicappers view Kentucky as a toss-up or leaning in the GOP’s direction. Still, it’s possible a Democrat could take back the governor’s mansion. It’s early, but the pollster Mason-Dixon found Beshear up 48 percent to 40 percent in a Bevin-Beshear matchup in December. So if Bevin remains as unpopular as he is now, there could be an opening. Then again, the Bluegrass State’s politics are pretty darn red.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

4 notes · View notes