rwnsworld

[rwnsworld]

Stockpile HRT now.

[rwnsworld]

“You deserve to eat🥺” take one GOOD look at me

[rwnsworld]

My friend Nader is a 17 years old Palestinian boy who has been campaigning tirelessly for months now in order to evacuate his whole family from Gaza.

When I first started chatting with him, his campaign, which has a total goal of €50,000, was at a bit above €5,000 at the time, about a month ago.

Thanks primarily to this sweet boy's daily efforts and the help he's received from some Tumblr users, we've managed to get his fundraiser to 62% of its total goal!!!!

With that in mind, if everyone who's donated a relatively small amount would donate a similar amount again as I did, we could SO easily take him very near his goal!!

His campaign is verified. It's the 4th campaign in this spreadsheet.

If we reach this €50,000 goal, we'd be saving not just Nad, but several young children, his father Ahmed who's a cancer patient, and many others. Reminder too that an uncle of his was martyred very recently. Anything can happen at any moment, and he gets very disheartened whenever donations decrease. We need to get them all out of Gaza as soon as possible.

His little niece is suffering from malnutrition, and every day when Nad and I resume chatting again he tells me how exhausted he is. I'm very worried for him and his family, as there's people dying of starvation all around him and him and his family aren't doing well. His family has already been displaced NINE times!!

Let's give Nad a chance to follow his dreams of going to university. Let's give his very small siblings a chance to know of a life free of bombings and shootings. Let's give his father the opportunity to deal with his cancer with dignity and an actual fighting chance.

€30,784/€50,000

Tagging for reach:

@annevbonny @angelsaxis @anneemay @arabianbutch @babyfairy @bigprettygothgf @closet-keys @curseworm

@enbnonsense @fuckyeahmarxismleninism @filmnoirsbian @fireandfennel @fufudeplatano @frankeneglected

@guavabat @handweavers @jvzebel-x @journeysendinlovers @knifefightscene @kamalaskadoosh @lesbeet @lesbiantaurus

@lesbianslasherfilm @lesbianalism @medusadyke @narashite @nerdvi @nonbinarymerbabe @nurlet

@ororomunroedontpullout @prisonhannibal @palistani @palipunk @rosyish @robotpussy @sawasawako @serpari

@sirmonster @sibelin @socalgal @sunsstorms @thatdiabolicalfeminist @undeadbutch @uptownthots

@vamprisms @vympr @vicholas @womenintheirwebs @nabulsi @el-shab-hussein

[rwnsworld]

What I've eaten today <3

-1 cup of baby spinach/mixed springs

-1/2 cup cooked cubed chicken unseasoned

-1/2 cup grapes (177 together)

- Diet mountain dew (0)

-Granola bar (160)

-Scalloped potatoes (65)

- BBQ chicken (180) 

And then I watched the election and stress ate chocolate uhhh

Intake: >582

Active burned: 153cal

Total: 429cal

[rwnsworld]

Astronomodome's 2024 US Presidential Election Liveblog

First of all I want to say I have other stuff to work on today so I might not be super up to date with stuff but I'll try my best to give my thoughts as to what's going on.

So first, how do we tell who wins?

In the U.S., the popular vote doesn't decide who wins the presidency. Instead, we use the (much hated) electoral college. Here's a helpful visual.

Every state (and DC) is given at least three electors, usually more based on population (which is why states like California and Texas have so many). There are 538 in total. To win, a candidate needs more than half of these- half of 538 is 269, so a candidate needs at least 270. (Interestingly, it is possible for both candidates to receive exactly 269 electors, in which case the universe corrupts and we all die infinitely the House of Representative chooses who wins, with each state getting one vote.)

The national popular vote may not matter, but the popular votes of each of the states do. Whoever wins the popular vote in each state (except Nebraska and Maine bc they're weird but that's not too important) wins all the electors for that state. It's very all-or-nothing which is why a lot of people don't like it.

This is a map from election forecaster 538, one of many such organizations that use polling and algorithms and election magic or something to predict who is likely to win each state. They have a lot of good graphs and stuff to look at on their site if you want to learn more about the stats of everything. As the key notes, we can see which way each state is expected to vote, as well as a few states highlighted in bold as likely swing states.

Swing states are basically wherever the election is close and the number of electors is high enough to 'swing' the election. Basically, while all the other states are mostly decided based on precedent (though surprises are possible), these states could reasonably go either way. This is why both candidates hold so many rallies in Pennsylvania, for example- it's competitive, and they want to boost their chances of winning those electors by currying favor directly with those voters.

One thing this map doesn't show is what I lovingly refer to as the Bar. It looks like this. I bring it up because if you follow the election news you'll see it. A lot.

The arrows in the middle point to 269.5, the exact midpoint. Whoever reaches that midpoint by filling up the bar wins (the beige in the middle are the tossup states who could go either way).

For example, let's look at 270towin. (the forecast websites love their special numbers.) They have a fun interactive map where you can make the votes go wherever you want to see what would happen.

^ Here's their prediction based on consensus.

^ Here, I changed Florida so it votes blue. Not likely unless I can bribe enough officials to make it so my ballot is the only one that counts (fair and just). We can see that the Bar has shifted, and the blue side has almost reached the arrows. Let's see what happens if we add another blue state. Let's say... Georgia, for example.

Wow! If the states were to vote this way, the Democrats would win, even if all the other undecided states went red. Is it likely? No. But, well, how do we know that?

In short, we don't. But we can guess, and that's what polls are for. There are several different types, but the most important ones for right now are exit polls. They'll start coming out soon, I think. I'm not sure if they have to wait until all the polls close (so people don't see them and decide not to vote or something because of it) but I think they do, at least in some states. Exit polls are conducted right outside of voting locations as voters exit, which makes them more accurate than other polls. They're not free of bias, though, so as always take them with a grain of salt. They're the first indicator we'll have of how it went, but they're not the final numbers.

One ray of hope I want to point out is the currently infamous Selzer Iowa poll (not an exit poll but still relevant). Ann Selzer is a really trusted pollster, known for a long streak of accuracy. She published a poll a day ago that indicated that Harris was beating Trump (!) in Iowa (!!) by 3 points (!!!). Iowa is... not considered a Democratic state; it went for Trump last election by 14 points. So this is really surprising (understatement). And yes, it could mean absolutely nothing... but it certainly shocked a lot of people, including Trump, who tweeted angrily about it.

States count their votes in different ways. Some results will be out within the day, others might take weeks. But usually most states can be 'called' for a candidate before every vote is counted. This is because the leading candidate will have more votes than can be overcome by the other one, even if every vote counted was for them. The important thing is that, as polls close over the next couple hours, they'll be counting. I saw one report that said election officials in Idaho, for example, plan on counting every vote "before they go to bed that night," which I thought was kind of a cute way to put it. Most states will release vote counts in batches or by county, which means that other batches or counties might still be counting as others submit their counts. That last sentence had a lot of 'count' related words in it, huh.

One thing to note about vote counting is that absentee or mail-in ballots often take longer to be received and counted than in-person votes. This can cause a phenomenon called "blue shift"- basically, a lot of mail-in ballots are cast by college students (like me!) or people who live overseas, and those groups tend to vote more Democratic than in-person voters. That means that late in the counting process, totals will often shift more towards the Democratic candidate. Famously, this is how Biden ended up winning Georgia in 2020- initially it was forecasted to remain red, but it inched over slowly as mail-in ballots were received.

So, in short, that's how we figure out who will be president. I'll be keeping track of what happens tonight, but it's very possible we won't know who wins until tomorrow morning or even later. Let's hope for the best :)

[rwnsworld]

and maybe a lightly salted rice cake if i’m extra peckish

[rwnsworld]

how many calories in those biodegradable packing peanuts? I like to eat them

[rwnsworld]

[rwnsworld]

considering how many transmascs were legitimately way angrier BEFORE starting T and have since calmed down significantly have we perhaps considered that maybe the reason so many cis dudes are angry and aggressive isn't because of testosterone but maybe. like. personal issues. unmet needs. a social climate that teaches them that there are only like three acceptable emotional outlets for men max and one of them is being angry and shouting

[rwnsworld]

Started wearing my binder again..i forgot how nice it feels :)

[rwnsworld]

Transition but instead of starting HRT I just shed my skin like a cicada and have crazy bug sex and die in a week

[rwnsworld]

🤍No Binge November🤍

No Binging No Binging No Binging

🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍

No Binging in November No Binging in November

౨ৎNo Binge November No Binge November౨ৎ

No Binge November

N O B I N G E N O V E M B E R

🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍

No Binging In November

repost to claim!!🤍

[rwnsworld]

I have to start tracking everything again I feel so fat and I think I drank like 4,000 calories worth of alcohol last night

[rwnsworld]

Don't forget to sexualize the grotesque and romanticize the horrific today!

[rwnsworld]

I've been "binging" (aka eating the recommended kcal) for a couple days and I feel so guilty and my stomach hurts and I want to remove my stomach from my body and I'm too scared to check my weight 😭🙏 We're gonna use Samhain/Halloween as an excuse

[rwnsworld]

does anybody else look at their body and just see the potential underneath?

[rwnsworld]

what I ate today </3

Mondays r hard, started so well and was so excited to have sushi for lunch and then I got really anxious and won some stuff and went out with my friends and my mom was home to cook for once and it just rahhhhhh 😭🙏

-Apple (95)

-Monster (6)

-Gum thru the day (15)

-Sushi (190)

-Mini air head (47)

-Taki nuts (370)

-Ham and cheese slider (315)

Total: 1,039

Burned: 187

Net: 852