jaddl

[jaddl]

A Play in One Act

INT. LIVING ROOM - EVENING

A rural postman has just gotten home from his evening postal delivery in Western Kansas. It is the first night of the fantasy football playoffs, and he has one WR playing in the Raiders v. Chargers game. Although the game is now over, he has no idea how his wideout performed. He begins to inquire of his wife, who is sitting on the couch under an afghan, how Jakobi Meyers did that night.

TRUCKER

Hi hun. How did Jakobi do tonight?

WIFE

Well, you know how the Raiders scored literally zero points last week? Tonight they scored 63!

TRUCKER

Holy shit! What, is that like NINE touchdowns? Meyers had to be in on some of that action.

WIFE

He sure was. You would be happy to know that in addition to catching multiple passes, Mr. Meyers had at least one touchdown reception!

TRUCKER

Hot damn!

WIFE

That's not all. Jakobi Meyers, a wide receiver, even completed more than one pass! You heard correctly. The Raiders interim head coach employed trickery against the hapless Chargers! And here's the best part ...

TRUCKER

What is it??

WIFE

At least one of Jakobi Meyer's multiple pass completions was a TOUCHDOWN!

TRUCKER

You gotta be shitting me!

Did he have any turnovers?

WIFE

Nope, no fumbles (or interceptions, ha ha).

So, how many points do you think he scored?

TRUCKER

Gosh, I don't know, 30? 40? Maybe more?

WIFE

15.

End scene.

[jaddl]

It's that time of year when I have to fish out my DDL login info so I can do a Playoff SCENARIOS BLOG.

A reminder, here are the rules for Division champs, Playoff seeds and byes, and Wildcard action.

Divisions: The team with the best overall record in the division wins the division and makes the playoffs. If there are two teams at the top of the division with the same record at the end of the year, the tiebreakers are as follows: 1) Division record, 2) Head-to-head, and finally 3) points. I don't think this will apply in 2023, but in the off chance that three teams in the division all have the same record at the end of the year, and the same division record, then you skip right to 3) overall points.

Playoff Seeds: The top two division winners get byes in the first round of the playoffs. This is determined by 1) record, and 2) overall points. You don't use head-to-head or other tiebreakers. The next two division winners are the 3 and 4 seeds, the wildcards are the 5 and 6 seeds. In the First Round of the Playoffs, the 3 seed plays the 6 seed (and the winner plays the 2 seed in round 2), and the 5 seed plays the 4 seed (winner to play the 1 seed in round 2).

Wildcards: The top two non-division winners by record get the last two "Wildcard" playoff spots. Like seeding, this goes by 1) record, and 2) overall points. With these rules in mind, let's look at the current standings with one week to go:

Money: Division winners get a $100, the overall points champ gets $200, and the League Champion at the end of the playoffs gets $600.

Flavortown Division - Current Standings

Monkeys 8-5

Odouls 7-6

Falcons 5-8

Looks like Odouls plays the Shanks to finish the season, and the Falcons play the Monkeys. If The Monkeys of Tulsa win, then they win the division. If they lose, and Odouls beats Ryan’s hapless team, then both teams will be 8-5. It’s kind of hard to figure out Division records in Sleeper, but if Jacob loses this week, then he will drop I believe to 1-3 in the division. Jones appears to have a 2-2 division record, so if he wins, and Tulsa loses, Jones will somehow have won something like 7 in a row to finish 8-5 with a pennant and a playoff berth! What a fucking deal.

The Abusement Park - Current Standings

Lanniesters 8-5

Nate 8-5

Hauloll 7-6

This division is fucking tight folks. However It looks like the scheduling gods have given us a true Division championship game for the final week of the year. Lannie and Nate square off Week 14, the winner will be 9-5 and will have won the division. Jason’s not getting to 9 wins, so that’s that as the division title is concerned. 

The Premier League - Current Standings

Boom 9-4

IPP 5-8

Shanks 4-9

Pete wrapped up this division last week I think. Check’s in the mail Pete! 

Mountain Standards - Current Standings

LFJ 8-5

Hornets 6-7

BNB 3-10

Same as Premier League. Congrats me! 

Byes

Worst case scenario for him, Boom is 9-5. The Abusement Park is also gonna produce a 9-5 team, and if I beat the hapless Bensons I will also and finish 9-5. Boom is the points leader by quite a bit, I am number 2. The rest are kind of back a ways. Check the Sleepr Smartphone Application for deets.

Wildcards

At last, we come to the Wildcards. The Flavortown division can easily produce a 8-6 second place team (either Jones or Tulsa). Abusement Park will also produce an 8-6 division runner up (the loser of the Division championship game). Hauloll, with a win over the Hornets, will also be 8-6. Looks like the top two scoring 8-6 teams will be this year's Wildcards. Here’s the current scoring between the various competitors:

Odouls - 1857.1

Lannie - 1827.05

Nate - 1800.95

Hauloll - 1752.2

Tulsa - 1731.4

Disclaimer

I did not use any potential TIES in my scenarios. Also, this was a perfunctory review of the standings, so check my work. Also, my apologies to the Bensons, the Hornets, the Falcons, IPP, and the Shanks. Your teams apparently suck and there is no way you can make the playoffs. 

[jaddl]

LOVE IT!

I woke up early this morning, before 6 am. Work stuff, kid’s sick, whatever. But then I couldn’t really get back to sleep. So I headed out to the bathroom, and on the way, I thought I’d check and see if I landed the New York Football Giants Defense and Special Teams unit that I’d put a waiver wire claim on the night before. Turned on my computer, and guess what? I did land those NY Football Giants![1]

But then I saw something else. And that something else is truly a top 5 moment for me this season. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Matt Ryan Week Seven OMFG Bidding War:

Ironically this all happened about 24 hours before the Moved On From Matt Ryan Bowl between Dan Romans and myself kicks off. As I am sure everyone remembers, I traded Michael Carter, RB for the Jets, for Matt Ryan after week 1.[2] But then I signed the Other Prince Who Was Promised Kenny Pickett ahead of Week 5, which caused me to bench Matt Ryan. And then I watched the Colts play the Broncos on TNF and saw the Corpse formally known as Matt Ryan actually play a football game. Frankly watching a Matt Ryan that I had just benched was one of the prouder moments I’ve had this year, because Matt Ryan looked like the worse QB in the league. He threw 0 TDs, 2 picks, got sacked 6 times, and fumbled twice. So I dropped Matt Ryan.

But then Matt Ryan dropped 31 points week 6. He was 42/58(!) for 389 yards and had 3 TDs and no interceptions last week against the Jags.[3]

The waiver wire is tough.[4] And QBs are scarce. Listen, the Mighty Boom started Skylar Thompson last week in a disaster. And the Falcons QB room makes Ian look like he’s a serial killer collecting the worst QBs in the NFL: He’s got Mac Jones, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. He’s previously started Baker Mayfield, so Matty Ice would have been a big get for Ian. And you gotta play one QB, you kind of got to play two, right?

But Matt Ryan? I only really listen to one fantasy football podcast. And when they talked about streaming QBs this week, they mentioned Matt Ryan’s Jags line. And they said to pay no attention to that line, because they’ve seen Matt Ryan play football just like I have. It doesn’t mean anything. 

Good luck Boom. Anyways, here are some things on Amazon I found that are much better uses for $569:[5]

[1] I need the Giants because the steady eddy D/St unit I’d signed a few weeks before (Fly Mighty Eagles Fly) are on a bye this week. I really like this Eagles unit and I really really don’t want to drop them. It’s always a struggle to fill out the bottom of your lineup, your TE, D, and K, and I think I’ve finally got the Jesus’s bottom all figured out: Ertz, Eagles & Buttkicker. But that puts me in IR roster hell. If James Connor (currently on IR and now officially questionable) is healthy, he’s gotta go in my starting 10 because BOTH Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are on bye, and my only other two rostered wideouts (SHOUTOUT BERRIOS) are kind of emergency staring this week. James Connor is playing Thursday, along with Jameis Winston, also on my roster, maybe playing probably not but also probably not “out.” If Conner is ruled out before TNF I’m good, I can keep him in the IR, and move the Giants to the starting 10. But if he’s a go, I gotta both play him and cut somebody else. The decision gets much more difficult if Jameis is a go too and he starts. (Last week he was healthy enough to be a back-up a-la Teddy Two Gloves? WTF). Anyways, IR bye week stuff, amirite? Keep your eyes on my roster for updates to this ever-developing situation.

[2] BTW still kinda think I might of won that trade. Dano started Carter week 2, he score 10 points, but Carter hasn’t started for Dano since (scoring 5.6, 4.9, 17.3 on the bench). Meanwhile Breece Hall is the clear front runner in the Jets backfield. Matt Ryan started 3 games for me before getting dropped, and two of those starts were fairly effective: 17.5 in week 3 and 21.4 in week 4. He score 3 point fucking 8 points for me week 3. But if Carter never sees the field again for Dan, then I’m still counting this trade as a win for me. 

[3] Another reason I went for the Giants, they’re playing the Jags, who finally look like a real Jags team.

[4] I paid over $200 for Taysom Hill (verses absolutely no one it turns out) only to cut him a week after, but then he goes off again, so Odouls pays over $400 for him, starts him, and he scores 4 points. Taysom Hill is a tough nut to crack.  

[5] Dan signing Andy Dalton for free this morning as a free agent was the best move of the last 12 hours. There is, what, a better than even chance Andy Dalton scores more points than Matt Ryan this week?        

[jaddl]

Couple of Pre Thanksgiving Notes

When I woke up this morning and checked my email, I saw something that made me so happy:

I just want to give a shout out to all of the people who put so much work into this trade. I know that the formal negotiations lasted weeks, but that the talks had begun months ago and the total amount of man hours put into research and negotiations on both sides must have been in the hundreds of man hours. I know at times things were contentious and feelings were hurt. But to know that both parties came together and got this thing done right under the trade deadline, well, it's a reminder of why we do this. I truly believe this will end up going down as one of the two or three most important trades in JADDL history. It almost makes me want to start up the DDL again. Great work everyone. 

Of course I will be voting against the trade for my own personal reasons.

Lastly Dan Romans has just signed Tim Boyle (TB12!) ahead of the Red Hornet's playoff push. I love it! Here are some thoughts not just about Boyle's NFL career, but a full background on his illustrious college career:

Loser: Lions quarterback Tim Boyle, an awful college quarterback at UConn and Eastern Kentucky who has somehow managed to spend four years in the NFL. Actually, let me rephrase that: Tim Boyle was not merely an awful college quarterback. Boyle was one of the worst quarterbacks to play a significant number of snaps in the recent history of college football. In three seasons at UConn, Boyle threw one touchdown and 13 interceptions, with the Huskies losing all eight games that he started. Since 2000, he has the worst passer efficiency rating of any FBS quarterback with at least 200 passing attempts. Nobody else has managed to throw that few touchdowns while throwing that many interceptions. Before you ask, he’s not a great runner, either—he had negative-122 rushing yards at UConn. There have been thousands upon thousands of FBS quarterbacks over the decades, none of whom have posted stats this pitiful. After his dismal UConn career, Boyle transferred to Eastern Kentucky, hoping to play his senior season against easier competition. But even after dropping down, he managed to throw more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (11), as EKU finished 4-7.

Sunday, Boyle had a chance to explain his presence in the NFL. After three years as Aaron Rodgers’s backup, Boyle was signed by the Lions this year, and starter Jared Goff got hurt last week. It was finally time for Boyle to show what he can do … and it turns out the only thing he can do is throw interceptions.

Boyle was as historically bad in the NFL as he was in college. On 23 passing attempts, Boyle threw for 77 yards and two interceptions. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt, the fewest of any starting QB in any game this year with at least 10 passing attempts. He had the fewest passing yards of any quarterback with at least 15 completions in NFL history. He had four completions for negative yardage, accounting for roughly 2 percent of all completions for negative yardage in the NFL this season. He only completed four passes to his wide receivers for a total of 18 yards. It’s stunning that in spite of this remarkably conservative game plan, he still managed to throw two interceptions, including this miscommunication on a pass to D’Andre Swift.

This was a winnable game for the Lions, thanks to Swift going for 136 rushing yards and a TD on 14 carries. (Normally, passes are supposed to be more efficient than runs, but Swift averaged 6.4 more yards per carry than Boyle averaged per throw.) But they were doomed by Boyle’s complete inability to move the ball, and lost 13-10. It’s hard to imagine that they would’ve been worse off with backup David Blough, who had great college stats and threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving two years ago.

I have spent four years wondering how Tim Boyle was in the NFL. Now that we have actually seen him play, I am just as mystified. How did Sir Picks-a-Lot, the most interception-prone QB on Bob Diaco’s 11-26 UConn Huskies, get the call? Are there really so few 6-foot-4 guys with strong arms that every single one of them has to be on an NFL roster? Is he just a great hang? Is he Roger Goodell’s illegitimate son? I’m being harsh to Boyle—but there are a limited number of NFL roster spots, and I have seen some of my favorite college QBs immediately fall out of football to work office jobs. We finally got to see Boyle Sunday, but we still haven’t seen why this man made it to the NFL.

 https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/22/22795294/winners-and-losers-week-11-jonathan-taylor-austin-ekeler-tim-boyle 

Tim Boyle and Michael Thomas. Is there any wonder why the Ol Big 8 is the best division in the league? 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 

[jaddl]

[jaddl]

[jaddl]

[jaddl]

[jaddl]

Around the League in 485 Words

Jason: Team Hauloll averages 121.7 points a game, hasn't scored under 105.5 all year, yet is only 1-2. I mean I really don't like to just toss these kinds of claims around, but is this THE BEST 1-2 TEAM OF ALL TIME?

Commish: The Fighting Longshanks are 1-0 against Odouls, and 0-2 against teams who score 98.6 points (LFJ and BNB). Makes you think.

Adam Julius Jones: Odouls is the proud father of both a relatively newborn baby and the easily the worst team in the East. The ceiling for these guys is 4-9, 5-8 seems like a stretch.

Dano: EASILY the worst team in the League is the Red Hornets Return. The highest these fuckers have scored through three weeks is 76 points. But after gutting out a 66.7-66.2 win over fellow Phoenician AmericanCar, they’re ONE AND TWO.

Boom: Numbers don’t lie. This team is fading fast. Week two scoring was down by over FIFTY POINTS. Week three saw their worst performance yet. By week nine I see these guys completely out of the playoff picture.

Will: The Tulsa Monkeys are 0-3, but just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, DAK PRESCOT is currently scheduled to start at QB week 4.

Hollywood: The Falcons are 0-3 but Blake Bortles IS BACK. Bortles was the DAY ONE starter for Ian. He scored 13.2 points, ten less than LFJ starter Tyrod Taylor (IN THE RAIN IN AN EPIC COMEBACK TIE AGAINST THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS). Ian turned to Jimmy G Garoppollo week two, and lost 70-100 or something to Benson while a pissed off Bortles dropped a 34.5 on the bench. Jimmy G remained the week three starter but fucked up his knee hard (#BobSutton) in a heartbreaking shootout with the over-hyped Boomsters. Big Old Blake Bortles is back Week Four. The Falcons are easily my favorite team this year.    

Jesus: We’re doing just fine thank you.

BNB: Here’s one for Boom: Aaron Rodgers, Trey Burton, Harrison Butkicker, the Bears D, $550 FAAB AND Rex Burkhead for Todd Gurely, Carlos Hyde and Tyreke Hill. All I know as a disinterested party is it looks fair on paper.  

IPP: As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeShawn Stevenson, and Mike Evans are walking on to that field, IPP remains the best team in the league. Good for you NoMac! 

#StartFitzMagicWeek4 #NotRacist

AmariCarr: I have no idea how one recovers from a 66.7-66.2 loss to Dan Romans. I think it’s probably time to find a new 12th member of this league. I’ve got the email saved in a draft folder somewhere.

It took me like five minutes to figure out who the last team to mention was. It’s the Lanniesters! They’re 2-1! This is one of the most amazing facts I’ve ever discovered. After three weeks of play, Lannie’s TEs have combined for FIVE POINT FOUR POINTS. Total, through, like three whole weeks. I’ve said before I’ll say it again, you don’t need a TE to win the West.  

[jaddl]

Market ReCap: Well That Was Fun

I’m no historian, but “Phillip Lindsey” might have just set a DDL record for “most waiver bids in a single week.” Who is Phillip Lindsey you might ask. He’s this guy:

He’s a dude who had 15 rushing attempts for your Denver Broncos. 

The Longshanks, who apparently want to go broke before week 3 starts, nabbed him for $350. (The real FA story this year is James Connor (O’Conner?). Seriously, I know Jones and Co. just had a baby, but that is shit is some real gross negligence on his part and this colossal fuck up is gonna haunt him all year). The Shanks were joined by 7 other teams, who all put a claim on Lindsay, ranging from $87, the lowest bid (Falcons) to $250, the second highest bid, by Lannie. There were four bids that were separated by only $21). Also, shouldn’t Ryan have actually bid $351? More on that shit in a bit.

Let us also consider “Quincy Enuwa.” LFJ, as firm a believer in you build a WR corp through the waiver as ever existed, landed Q with a $107 bid. Lannie bid $100 (Benson bid $33). NEVER EVER EVER BID an even amount like ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS, right? This is Waiver Wire 101 stuff. 

Jared Cook cost the Shanks $280. The next highest bid was no one for nothing. Full disclosure, I thought about going for Cook. He looks like he’ll catch a lot of balls, but locker room chemistry is important to me, and I didn’t want Zach Ertz distracted by the competition or me making some stupid fucking decision to bench Ertz for Cook and then Cook has like 3 catches and a fumble or some shit while Ertz catches two TDs. So I stayed away. Also I didn’t want to spend 1/3 of a year’s worth of money on a number 2 TE. 

Boom got “TJ Yeldon” for $154, narrowly edging IPP’s bid of $150. Stupid ass round number shitbid from Nomac, who should know better because he bid $211 on DeShawn Stevenson (beating $86 from LFJ and $51 from the Monkeys). (Fun Ryan side note: His claim for TJ was actually $96 dollars over Boom, but he must have wanted to drop the same dude who he ultimately dropped for Cook and thus his bid didn’t go through. I assume this was Ryan’s plan all along, like he knew the risk of going after two guys with the same dude to drop, but isn’t it way better if this was a fuck up because Ryan doesn’t understand how the system works?)

Ryan now has $370 left. That’s like a “Phillip Lindsay” and a D. Great Plan Champ. 

Anyways, as always, fun stuff. I look forward to Phillip Linday’s 2.5 starts for the Shanks. 

[jaddl]

A Modest Proposal: We Probably Want to Tweak the Playoff Tiebreakers

I’ve been thinking a lot about the tie-breakers in JADDL standings to determine playoff berths and/or divisional champs, and something has been bothering me. Let’s discuss.

According to the JADDL Constitution, final division standings are to be determined as follows:

[T]he three teams at the top of the standings of each division shall represent the league in the playoffs; in the event of a tie, the following metrics will be used in order until the tie is broken: a) intra-division record, b) head-to-head results, c) total points, d) records against common opponents beginning from the top of the standings, e) total points in head-to-head games, f) a coin flip; the two division champions shall receive byes in the first round of the playoffs.*

I was using this list to work through playoff scenarios and it struck me: these criteria only contemplate settling a tie-breaker in a one-on-one context. What if there are more than two teams competing for a playoff spot or division title AT THE SAME TIME?

To illustrate, let us consider a scenario that could very well unfold next week. Let’s imagine a world where the Fightin’ Longshanks beat the Bad News Bensons week 13 and Team O’douls also defeats the Millennium Falcons. Let us further assume that the final season point totals end with the following rankings: 1) Shanks, 2) Bensons, 3) Odouls.

If that happens, and of course it’s very possible, then all three teams will have not only identical overall records, but also identical divisional records, and, perhaps most improbable, a series split among all three teams in head-to-head matchups. That is, each of these three teams will have gone 1-1 versus the other two teams. To wit:

Scenario No. 1

Shanks 7-6 (6-4 Div): 1-1 v. Bensons, 1-1 v. Odouls, 1st in points

Bensons 7-6 (6-4 Div): 1-1 v. Shanks, 1-1 v. Odouls, 2nd in points

Odouls 7-6 (6-4 Div): 1-1 v. Bensons, 1-1 v. Shanks, 3rd in points

Obviously in this scenario it makes sense to boot Odouls from the playoffs and have the Eastern Wildcard game feature the Bensons and the Shanks. All other things being equal among these three teams, BOTH of the Bensons and the Shanks scored more season points than Odouls, so it follows that they should make the playoffs over Jones. But it’s easy to imagine a slightly different scenario where all three teams have competing and rational arguments that they should make the playoffs.

Let’s assume the following:

Scenario No. 2

Shanks 7-6 (6-4 Div): 2-0 v. Bensons, 1-1 v. Odouls, 2nd in points

Bensons 7-6 (6-4 Div): 0-2 v. Shanks, 2-0 v. Odouls, 3rd in points

Odouls 7-6 (6-4 Div): 0-2 v. Bensons, 1-1 v. Shanks, 1st in points

A problem has emerged. Do you see it? 

In this scenario, Benson has the head-to-head tiebreaker against Odouls by virtue of the season sweep, and the Shanks have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bensons by virtue of that season sweep. Odouls has the tiebreaker against the Shanks because he’s scored more points than Ryan, yet remember he loses the tiebreaker against Benson by virtue of their head-to-head series.

So who makes the playoffs? No matter how you split it, the team who is eliminated will have one tiebreaker v. a team that makes it. Say you kick Benson out because he’s third in points, he’ll be like “what the fuck I swept Jones and he MADE the playoffs!” So then you decide to kick Odouls out, but he says “what the fuck I split the series with Hannebaum AND scored more points than his team BUT HE makes the playoffs?” So you kick Hannebaum out, and he’s like, “what the fuck I swept Benson and he gets in?” and so on ad nauseum.**

So what’s a league to do? I don’t think this problem can rear it’s ugly head this year. If these three Eastern teams all wind up with identical overall, divisional, and head-to-head series records, it makes obvious sense to just use total points to sort the three teams out. But we need to consider what to do in the hypothetical Scenario No. 2.

There are many solutions to this problem. I think the simplest and perhaps fairest is to just throw out head-to-head criteria when there are three teams competing for two playoff spots or for the division title but all three have identical overall and divisional records. You would just sort them out by overall points, much like the clean Scenario No. 1.

Of course, that makes it possible for a team with an identical overall and divisional record to miss the playoffs and be replaced by a team that it swept in the regular season. But you gotta narrow it down somehow. Maybe someone has a better solution. Either way, we gotta deal with this shit.

*  Amendment 1, Constitution of the League, paragraph 3. The Constitution is itself an interesting document, but it’s kind of hard to find it on the League website. On the homepage, if you scroll all the way to the bottom past the comments, there’s a “Constitution” link in the footer. Did you know there’s a constitutional clause that allows league members to forcibly oust a Commissioner? Did you know that the draft date has to be decided unanimously?  

** Now it’s true that the League Constitution has more tiebreakers after 1) record, 2) divisional record, and 3) points, but these additional criteria suffer from the same fatal flaw of the first three criteria, they’re binary as opposed to tertiary; they are only sufficient to compare two teams to each other, not three teams against each other. After total points, the next tiebreaker criteria is “records against common opponents beginning from the top of the standings.” First of all, my guess is that this language predates the formation of divisions, and that makes this criteria pretty unwieldy to use in general. In a bifurcated league there are two lists of final standings, one for each division. While by rule each of these three teams will have played the Eastern divisional champ twice, they could have also all three played the Western Divisional Champ in inter-divisional play. These issues aside, the criteria doesn’t even necessarily solve anything: each of the three teams could theoretically have identical records against either divisional champ ( it’s easy to imagine that they all went 0-2 or 1-1 against the Eastern divisional champ, or all went 1-0 or 0-1 v. the Western divisional champ). Point totals in head-to-head matchups, the next criteria, has the same flaw (there are three head-to-head matchups to consider), and the final tiebreaker, a coin-flip, only works with two contestants. Moving on down the list does not solve the problem. 

[jaddl]

Revisiting the Week One Over/Unders

Way back in September, Pete and I sat down in front of a laptop and discussed various over/under JADDL propositions. With the regular season winding down, let’s see how we did. For a 16 minute refresher, here’s the video.

https://youtu.be/QUygfwj4nrQ

1. Over/under Fightin' Lonkshanks wins: 5.5

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: “We can kick Nate out next year.”

The Longshanks have already won 6 games! Pete wins the first over/under. 

2. Over/under number of times Hannebaum invokes “The Curse:” 3

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “If you would have picked 5 I would have gone over.”

I suppose this one really turns on how exactly one defines “invokes the curse”, but I got at least five tweets that I think qualify:

That’s Pete: 1, James 1.

3. Over/under AmariCarr wins: 7

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: “Who’s he got on his team exactly?”

This one’s still in play actually. He’s already up to 7 wins, but Nate’s projected to win this week. He could lose, probably won’t though, and who knows what happens next week. It’s TBD, but let’s give it to Pete for now.

That’s Pete 2*, James 1.

4. Over/under most wins in JADDL: 10

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “Ehhhhhhhhhhehhhh I’ll take over. I don’t know. ”

No one’s winning 10 games this year, so Pete 3, James 1.

5. Over/under AJ Green touchdowns: 4.5

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: Pete: “They just fired their offensive coordinator.” James: “Is that good or bad?” Pete: “That’s never good.”

He’s got 6 TDs already, so Pete’s cleaning up with 4, James only has 1.

6. Over/under Bad News Bears Trades: 5

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “And remember, he’s already paid $25 to trade for, what, I don’t know, a kicker?”

Benson’s gonna be Benson. Pete 4, James 2. 

7. Over/under LFJ Wins: 7

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: Pete: “It’s easy to say under, cuz...” James: “Sure.”

With 8 wins already, this one’s over. James is fighting back: Pete 4, James 3.

8. Over/under Boom wins: 8.5

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best quote: James: “9-4 is hard to do.” Pete: “It is.”

“It is” indeed Pete. We’re all even up at 4.

9. Over/under “announced” babies born to JADDL owners: 1

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: "Nate, you got anything cookin’ up?”

I am not aware of any babies being born this fall to JADDL owners this fall, so James 5, Pete 4. 

10. Over/under JADDL divorces between now and 2027: 1.5

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “Ian could easily get married and divorced in the next ten years.”

Still TBD as far as I know. Just a friendly reminder to tweet at the league if you get divorced.

11. Over/under LFJ starting QBs: 3

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: James: “Every team has at least 2.” Pete: “So you gotta go 4.” James: “3 is the number?” Pete: “4 is the number. 3 is the number.” James: “Oh 4 is the number?” Pete: “No 3 is the number.”

This was actually a push. Trevor Siemian snuck in a week 4 start before it became abundantly clear that Carson Wentz is the NFL’s MVP. Josh McCown started week 10 on Wentz’s bye week. 

Round 12. I got a fucking NFL MVP in round 12.

12. Over/under Carson Wentz JADDL starts: 7

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: Pete: “He’s gonna get 8 starts for you.” James: “That’s good to know. That’s good to hear from you.”

Carson Wentz is not just a starter, he’s the second highest scoring QB in the league. We’ll get to the highest scoring QB in the league later. Anyways, Pete saw the Wentizasance before James did, so it’s now Pete 5, James 5.

13.  Over/under max FAAB: $450

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “Somebody’s just gonna do something stupid.”

So way back on September 27, I bid $457 on one Wendell Smallwood. If not for that bid, the under would have carried. Makes you think. James 6, Pete 5.

14.  Over/under DDL blog posts: 18.5

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “That’s pretty high, especially when youre out of the playoff race week 10.” 

Who’s out of the playoff race now Pete? Anyways, he was right. I think this is only like the 11th post. We’re back even with 6.

15.  Over/under first round busts: 4

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: James: “You think it’s almost gonna be fucking half of ‘em?!” Pete: “Could be.”

This was a good one. Here’s the first round:

DJ and Beckham were busts by way of injury. Devonta Freeman has only scored in double digits three times this year and hasn’t really played for the better part of a month. Jordy Nelson’s been a huge bust: he hasn’t scored in double digits since week 4 and hasn’t scored above 3.5 points in the last 6 weeks. So that’s 4 busts so far.

I’d say it’s pretty questionable to consider anyone else on the list a true “bust.” Julio was actually only the 26 highest scoring receiver before he dropped 40 on Benson this week, but he was averaging 8.5 points/game and had played in every contest so far. Plus, you know, he just dropped 40 in a must win game for Jones. Bell and Brown are the best of the best, and the rest of the first rounders are still giving everyone at least 8.5 a game. I’m gonna call this one a push. Still tied at 6.

16.  Over/under black JADDL owners by 2027: .5

James: Over / Pete: Under

Best Quote: “I’m not trying to be racist by that at all.”

Let’s just skip this one. 

17.  Over/under Dalvin Cook season rushing yards: 1,150

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: James: “What’s Dixon’s fist name, Joe? Joseph? John Dixon? That Vikings running back. Who’s that rookie running back you got?” Pete: “Dalvin Cook.” 

The poor guy only played 4 games before he got cut down by injury, but he was on pace for over 1,400 yards this year. What could have been, eh Pete? James 7, Pete 6.

18.  Over/under Ian tweets: 6

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: “Retweet if you watch this.”

Ian has tweeted 10 times this year! Retweet if you read this. Pete 7, James 7.

19.  Over/under Russell Wilson JADDL starts: 7

Pete: Over / James: Under

Best Quote: Pete: “I’ll take the over.” James: “You gotta take the over.” Pete: “Yeah.”

Guys, do you know who the highest scoring player in the JADDL is? My god it’s Russell Wilson! I honestly had no idea. Geez, if Cook had stayed healthy, and if Tyreek Hill hadn’t been so maddeningly inconsistent, and if Ben Hogan ...

You know what, let’s just leave the Boom alone. 

Final Tally: Pete 8, James 7   

[jaddl]

Goddammit Let’s Tackle These Playoff Scenarios

Or at least try. I mean It’s like we don’t even have a commissioner. Does he even hand out Briefly Badasses anymore? 

A few notes before we get started. I ain’t considering ties. And I may be wrong about shit too, don’t forget that. And I ain’t fucking doing all the scenarios. You see I got some youtube shows I gotta catchup on before I leave work today.

You’re Dunzo

Millennium Falcons: In our system of fantasy football, you have to actually win games to make the playoffs.

Team Hauloll: You’re done too.

Boom: Boom rounds out this year’s crop of failures. This is now two years running that the Boomsters have failed to make the playoffs. I mean, it’s almost like Peter is just lighting money on fire at the beginning of the season.

Not Done Yet!

Red Hornets: They gotta win out to make the playoffs, that’s for sure. They ain’t making it with only 6 wins and a 4-6 divisional record. That much I know. 

I guess it’s time I remind everyone how fucking hard this is. There are so many variables!  Anyways, there may or may not be more than one road to the playoffs for Dan, but we know he’s gotta win out, so let’s keep it at that. I’m pretty sure he needs some help too. 

Divisional Title Destiny Holders:  Lannie, LFJ, & AmariCarr

If any of these teams wins out, they are guaranteed their respective divisional title. 

Technically Only One Eastern Team Controls their Divisional Championship Destiny

The Lawrence Football Jesus is alone atop the Eastern Standings for now, but they have to play the Shanks and Boom in the last two weeks of the season. Let’s assume that the Shanks win out and finish 8-5. Even with the week 12 loss to the Shanks, if Jesus beats the Boomsters week 13, and scores like 300 points, then he will probably then have the points tie-breaker against the Shanks (in this scenario they have split the regular season). I’m just saying, the Shanks don’t technically control their destiny when it comes to the division title.

Murky As Shit in the East: Shanks, Odouls, Bensons

They have identical overall and divisional records at 6-5 (5-3). Hell, they could all make the playoffs together with Jesus sitting out, that’s possible. But there will be separation among these three: Benson plays Odouls this week, and the Shanks play Benson week 13. 

Murky As Shit in the West:  IPP and Monkeys

They’re both 6-5 with 4-4 divisional records. They split the regular season matchups because Travis Kelce threw a pic. They are only separated by about 30 total points. 

One of them is almost definitely making the playoffs, but it’s very improbable that both do. But not impossible. Let us now consider:

The Nightmare Scenario for Lannie

Lannie is currently tied for the best record in the West at 7-4, but he’s down a game in divisional record to AmariCarr, who despite his best efforts, has not completely given up his once death-tight grip on the West. Lannie plays AmariCarr week 13, so let’s assume he wins that game. Looks good for Lannie, right? Surely if he just does that, he makes the playoffs. I mean he’s fucking tied for the division title right now. BUT WAIT.

If Lannie loses to the Monkeys week 12, even if he beats AmariCarr week 13, he’ll finish 8-5  with a 5-5 divisional record. Let’s assume Nate beats Hauloll week 12, with a week 13 loss to Lannie he’ll also finish 8-5 but with a 6-4 division record. Likewise if IPP beats the Hornets and Hauloll, he’ll finish 8-5 and 6-4. Lastly if the Monkeys beat Lannie week 12 and the Hornets week 13, they will also finish 8-5, with, you guessed it, a 6-4 divisional record. Thus by virtue of divisional record, AmariCarr, the Monkeys, and IPP will all finish over Lannie in the final standings.* 

So even though Lannie has the best record in the West RIGHT NOW, and EVEN IF he beats the other current Western division leader week 13, he can still conceivably NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. It is indeed “The Nightmare Scenario for Lannie.”  Gotta win those divisional games, don’t ya?

The Bad News

Not a single team in the entire league has actually clinched a playoff spot. That’s kind of scary, isn’t it?

The Good News

Every team in the league who is still in playoff contention can also conceivably win their division. Congratulations everyone! (I mean everyone except Peter, Jason, and Ian.) Everyone but those guys has already done great this year! Good job everyone! (Again except Peter, Jason, and Ian.)

*I suppose in that crazy scenario the highest scoring of the bunch will win the division? How do you compare head-to-head records when there are three team to consider? That would be a circle-like comparison.

[jaddl]

I mean, it’s gotta be Carson, right?

So, I’m at work, it’s kinda slow, so I go and check twitter and low and behold what do I find waiting for me:

So Jacob is letting me pick his QB? This is straight out of that surely cancelled by now FX show “The League.” I guess Jacob is just paralyzed by indecision and is making me choose. 

Well let’s get to it.

At first glance, without checking nothin’ I’m thinking how is it not going to be Carson Palmer? Carson Palmer is not getting two rushing TDs this week, and old Cam might. Is there something I don’t know? Did Carson Palmer become good last week or something? Is Newton injured? Didn’t Dan Romans draft Cam Newton? Are the Panthers playing the Seahawks? Let’s do some RESEARCH. 

Cam Newton is kind of banged up I guess. He’s practicing on “a limited basis.” I take it he’s gonna play though. The ESPN dudes say if he’s good to go, he’s a “strong QB1″ whatever the fuck that means. I mean, shit, the Panthers are playing the Chicago Bears. The Bears are not exactly a good football team, right? I mean, I can’t even tell you who their starting QB is. Trencher or something like that? Somehow though, the Bears have the 9th best D against QBs. OMFG, just last week, Joe Flacco threw 41 times against the Bears and somehow ended up with only 180 yards. Jesus Christ, can I pick Joe Flacco?

 So I’m still leaning Carson. Let’s check in out his prospects:

Except for week one, Palmer is squarely in the 15-21 range. I guess AP helps him in some twisted logic sort of way? God he looks ugly in that picture. Does Carson Palmer know how to smile?  The Cards are playing the Rams. Not gonna lie, I don’t know what that means. The Rams are 12th v. QBs? Guys, these numbers don’t really mean anything. 

This is easy for me. Jacob: Play Carson Palmer. I ain’t messing with Cam Newton. 

[jaddl]

Monday Morning HB: The Medieval Falcons

Holy hell. We just witnessed one of the greatest games in JADDL history. Falcons 49.7. Near Beers 57.7

Has anyone ever lost to someone who scored in the 50s? I mean, besides Ian. The 2017 Falcons will be remembered for a long time to come. Mike Evans was Ian’s first pick, but his next pick was Isiah Crowell. Crowell is apparently a running back for the Browns. You can never have too many Cleveland Browns on your team, amiright? The “IC” Crowd has now failed to reach double digits for 5 straight weeks. I guess his real strength is consistency?  Ian’s third pick was Alshon Jeffrey. Commish: do we need to investigate Ian to see if he’s intentionally taking a dive this year?

The Draft 

In the DDL video segment that aired earlier this year, Peter predicted that more than 6 first round draft picks would be busts. Let’s check in on how those 12 are doing. Here were the top 12 picks

1. David Johnson (Lanniesters)

2. LeVeon Bell (AmariCarr)

3. Antonio Brown (IPP)

4. Julio Jones (Odouls)

5. Odell Beckham (BNB)

6. Davante Freeman (LFJ)

7. AJ Green (Boom)

8. Mike Evans (Falcons)

9. LeSean McCoy (Shanks)

10. DeMarco Murray (Hauloll)

11. Jordy Nelson (Hornets)

12. Michael Thomas (Monkeys)

Two of the top 5 are definite busts. David Johnson scored 7 points before his wrist broke in the very first game of the season and is (probably?) out for the full season. Beckham fucked up his ankle pretty good yesterday and is donzo for the year. In five weeks of action, Beckham missed week 1 due to injury, scored only 3.6 points week 2, then dropped 19.9, 9, and 19.5 before ending his season. The injury cripples Bensons’s receiver corp as he had traded Brandin Cooks to LFJ earlier this week for CJ Anderson. Benson will now soldier on with a WR collection of unruly misfits and cast offs whose exploits will be aired on the feel-good 30 for 30 series “The Why Not-Receivers.”   

Julio Jones and DeMarco Murrary are starting to look pretty busty too. Julio has only scored in the double digits once, in week 2, which only barley qualifies as he scored only 10.8 points. Murray did have 20 week 3, but his other weeks have been mostly duds: 6, 2.8, 3.5, and 4.9. So let’s call that 4 busts after the first round of divisional play. 

The Weird Weird West

The five OG teams in the West decided as a gesture of goodwill that they would just anoint AmariCarr as their champion and hand him the trophy year one. 

The rest of the division is just horrible. If things pan out like they should tonight, then EVERYONE ELSE WILL BE 2-3. I don’t even know how that’s mathematically possible. The only way this gets fucked up is if “Jerick” McKinnon and Jordan Howard team up to score 27 points. I think I speak for everyone when I say I hope that doesn’t fucking happen. The idea of five shitty 2-3 West teams scrapping it out for two shitty West playoff spots sounds just awesome to me. 

Bringing it full circle, although the Faclons are winless in the East, you gotta think this is probably a  playoff team in the West. Prior to this week’s absolute shit-show, Ian was actually out scoring 4 out of 6 Western teams: IPP, the Monkeys, the Hornets, and the Lanniesters all posted less points than Ian’s Falcons through 4 weeks. 

I didn’t get it uploaded till today, but let’s check in DDL video’s press conference with LFJ’s star QB Carson Wentz. Carson, can you talk about how you guys are feeling as a team? (Starts at 1:58. Tumblr code is not letting me start the video at 1:58, so it’s gotta be you doing it manually. Sorry, that really ruins the fun.)

[jaddl]

fix that shit

Some picture shit needs to be fixed.

IPP, fix that shit.

Boom, fix that shit.

Jones, fix that shit.

Jason, fix that shit.