gabeasermely

[gabeasermely]

Silver: a Vampire’s Investment

Sure J.K. Rowling is great, but have you ever read Bram Stoker? I’ve always been intrigued by vampires for their immortality and great wealth. But have you ever wondered how they acquire their fortune? They have the opportunity to make long term investments and wait for them to appreciate. This concept made me wonder what assets the younger generations of today should invest in with the hope of them appreciating over the next 50 or so years.  

There is a strong argument to be made for stocks. Many long term charts show how the markets have appreciated over the years. However, the stock market appears to be too expensive by many measures nowadays. Even Warren Buffet’s partner, Charlie Munger, recently warned about overpriced stocks.

What about bonds? With a negative real yield, investing in bonds is a poor decision. A vampire can’t make money off a depreciating asset.

How about Silver?

Silver is rare. In fact, the majority of the world’s silver has already been mined, and most of the remaining amount is very difficult to obtain. This makes it a very safe investment (you can’t print silver).

Silver has perhaps more uses than any other commodity (besides petroleum). It’s a required component in cellphones, electric cars, batteries, and solar panels. Yes, silver appears to be the “Green” metal. 

Silver is the most reflective element, has the highest thermal conductivity of any element, is extremely malleable, and contains antibacterial properties.

Furthermore, silver has been considered to be “money” for 5,000 years in many cultures (just ask Alexander the Great or Demarius). In fact, the words for “silver” and “money” are synonymous in 14 languages!

Sure, a vampire could buy a few shares of Tesla stock or some Bitcoin, but there is no guarantee that those things will be around in 50 years. How sure are you that the Bitcoin blockchain won’t be hacked by quantum computers? On the other hand, silver is irreplaceable in the majority of its uses, and its necessity will not fade for the foreseeable future.

In my mind, these trends will continue. We know that the purchasing power of the dollar has dropped significantly over the past hundred years, and there is no evidence of its decline slowing down. With this in mind, silver will also provide an inflation hedge.

Historically, the value of gold has been 15 times higher than that of silver, but with gold sitting around $2,000/oz and trillions of dollars being printed, it is apparent that silver’s $25/oz price is far lower than where it should be.

On top of this, silver is one of the most shorted assets in the world. With the recent discovery of the fact that banks have been manipulating the price of silver for decades, its value will likely increase dramatically in the near future, possibly even bringing it close to or above the value it should be at to account for inflation.

I believe that silver will be one of the most lucrative long term investments of the next 50 years, and anyone who admires vampires for their investing wisdom as I do should heavily consider buying in.

[gabeasermely]

2020 From a Different Angle (intro)

Over the past couple of centuries, there have been a select few notable time periods in America which caused widespread unrest and sparked a lasting change in thinking and/or governing. The World Wars, the Great Depression, the Civil Rights Movement, and the coming about of widespread social media are examples of these monumental periods. It is my belief that we are currently living through a similarly important time; that the events that are and have been occurring in our country practically every day for the past year or so will lead to some kind of permanent, major change in the way we think and behave. I imagine it would have been difficult for those living through the aforementioned periods to picture exactly how the things happening around them would affect the future of the country and its society, just as it is difficult for us to envision the outcome of our current situation. When this concept occurred to me, I decided it would be interesting and perhaps also insightful to attempt to structure how historians or maybe even ordinary people will look back on this period of time 20-30 years from now. What will be notable to them? What will become an obsolete detail? The following three entries will be my analyses of the Black Lives Matter movement, the 2020 election, and the covid-19 pandemic from the lens of a 2050 historian. I hope you enjoy!

[gabeasermely]

An argumentative Piece

I’ve always had an interest in law, and being a lawyer is one of the career paths that I’m seriously considering - a profession where oral and written arguments, analytical thinking, and logic are your tools to make the world a better place.  Being able to argue a point logically and effectively is one of the most important aspects of being a lawyer, so I will attempt to do so here. I’ve always loved cars, and my dad owns an older SUV. I believe that it would benefit him to ditch the Tucson for a new Tesla, but he is not convinced; so the following will be my attempt to persuade him to go electric!

Over the past decade, Tesla has quickly grown from an eccentric car company catering to a select group of electric car enthusiasts to a well-known mega-corporation that sells reasonable, practical vehicles for the everyday consumer with loads of tech and power. I know it’s hard to believe, but Tesla’s market capitalization is now worth more than the combined market capitalization of Volkswagen, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, GM, Ford, Honda, Fiat, Chrysler, and Peugeot….  

Obviously, a car as powerful and unique as a Tesla comes with a slightly higher price tag than your run of the mill vehicle, but when you examine the differences in the costs of owning a Tesla as opposed to a standard gas powered car, you will find that the higher initial cost of the Tesla doesn’t tell the entire story.

My dad’s SUV was about $29,000 when he bought it in 2017 and is costing him $274/month in car payments that will continue until April of 2022. The cost of a new, well optioned Tesla Model 3 is about $45,000, and financing one would result in payments of about $450/month. Clearly there is a stark difference between the two in terms of cost, making the Tesla appear to be a poor choice financially. If you consider the other costs involved with the vehicles, however, you will find that this is not necessarily still valid.

My dad drives to and from work 5 days a week and additionally uses his car to run errands and other outings. This level of usage causes his car to need to be refueled about every 6 days. Since the average cost to fill his tank is $32, he is spending around $160/month on gas. Powering a Tesla on the other hand, would be close to free. There are chargers at his work available for any employees that would like to use them, and installing a charger at home would cost $650 - allowing for overnight charging at a practically inconsequential price. If you take the $160 that he would no longer be spending on gas away from the $450 monthly payments for the Model 3, you’re left with only $290/month being spent on the car, which is hardly more than the $274/month that his current SUV is costing him. Although this argument is already very convincing, I haven't even addressed resale value yet. In a new study, a Tesla Model 3 retains 90% of its resale value over its first 3 years.  A Tucson is expected to lose 50% of its resale value in the first 5 years.  There is considerable debate around this resale value, but it’s clear that Tesla retains its value much better than a Tucson. Dad, you're driving a falling knife - get out now!

Now that we have seen that the cars are financially similar and the Tesla holds its value better than the Tucson, when we consider the fact that the Tesla is far more eco-friendly, contains loads of incredible technology such as the capacity to drive itself, and is a lot faster and sportier as well (not to mention being downright cool), it begins to become even more appealing. Tesla is racing down the Technology Adoption Curve from the niche Early Adaptor to the mainsream.  

[gabeasermely]

Introduction

Each generation's leaders learn from the achievements and blunders of their predecessors, and use that knowledge to grow. My goal is to be a part of this progression. I hope to learn from today's leaders by researching topics and current events that I'm interested in. I plan on writing my thoughts and findings here to facilitate productive and insightful conversation as well as to prepare myself to make the world a better place. I invite you to join me on this journey!