fantasy-football-degenerate

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Run CMC

E=MC2. Energy equals mass times the speed of light.  What type of energy do you get when you mix the mass of an NFL pro-bowler with the speed of the fastest man in the world? E=CMC22.   (insert copyright on that).  We know football is in the blood of Christian McCaffrey.  His father Ed McCaffrey is a former pro-bowl WR and 3-time Super Bowl Champion.   But did you know that his maternal grandfather won a Silver medal in the 100-meter dash at the 1960 Olympics and was once the fastest man in the world.  McCaffrey also has an uncle who was part of Duke’ National Championship basketball team in 1991.   My genes came off a sales rack at Kohl’s, but McCaffrey, he has some pedigree to him.

Christian McCaffrey said he would pick himself 1st overall in a fantasy league.  Yeah, you and 99% of else playing fantasy football.   Christian McCaffrey, the great white hype.  But is the hype warranted?  If you doubt it, let’s review his resume.

After recording 80 receptions & 651 receiving yards in his rookie year, some thought that Christian McCaffrey was going to be a one hit wonder.  But there was nothing Vanilla or ice about McCaffrey as he heated up in year number two, cracking the century mark for catches and rushing for over 1,000 yards.   Critics still doubted his ability as an every-down back, but in his 3rd year, it was Run DMC.   McCaffrey was 4th in rushing attempts, 3rd in rushing yard and 3rd in rushing TD’s.   That’s impressive in itself, but doesn’t even take in account the damage he did in the air.    McCaffrey had 116 catches and topped 1,000 receiving yards.  To put that into perspective, only 4 WR’s had 100 catches last year.  If only we got a fantasy point for every catch…crickets…    In PPR, 116 catches is the same as throwing for 2900 passing yards.  Jacoby Brissett only threw for 2942.   McCaffrey combined for 2,392 total yards, which is the equivalent to 239 fantasy points.  A quarterback would have to throw for 5,975 yards to achieve that.

Running wild is nothing new for McCaffrey.  His 2,019 rushing yards in 2015 ranks 28th in college history.  Less than 40 RB’s have ever topped 2,000 yards in a single collegiate season.

In just his 3rd year as a pro, McCaffrey has already made a mark in the record books, setting the NFL record for most receptions by a running back in a season (116).  As we mentioned earlier,  he had 100 catches and 1,000 rushing yards, a feat only accomplished by 2 other RB’s.  He also became the 3rd RB in NFL history to gain 1,000 yards rushing and 1000 yards receiving in the same season.  Just how good was McCaffrey in 2019.  His 2,392 all-purpose yards ranks 16th all-time.  If you dig deeper, you see that he has the 3rd most yards of a running back as all of the players on that list played special teams and recorded most of their yards on kick returns and punt returns.  Chris ‘CJ2K’ Johnson and Marshall Faulk were the only other pure RB’s.  

Currently McCaffrey is tied 17th in NFL history with 4.7ypc.  Over the past two seasons he has averaged 4.9ypc.  There are only 12 players in NFL history have a career average of at 4.9ypc.  Now this is a small body of work and obviously he needs to be able to prove that he can maintain this level of play.   We know running backs have a short shelf life and can fall off the cliff at any time.   But for now, let’s look at the company that he is in.   The best ypc by a running back in the past 60yrs is Jamaal Charles.  Thought to be a duel threat in his day, Charles never topped 700 receiving yards nor 2,000 all purpose-yards.   Barry Sanders.  Arguably one of the best, if not the best, running backs of all-time.  Sanders never surpassed 500 receiving yards, a feat that McCaffrey breezed past in his rookie year.  McCaffrey has also passed Sander’s career best of 2,358 total yards.  McCaffrey’s combined 19 rush/recTD’s last year…sorry Barry, got ya again.   Nay-Sayers, what about Gayle.  Gayle Sayers scored 20 rushing TD’s in his first year.  After three years, Sayers had 38 TD’s.   McCaffrey has 39.    Adrian Peterson might seem old enough to be McCaffrey’s father, but he’ll never whoop that ass like it’s his own son.   He can run all day, but AP might as well stand for after prime.   He will never come close chasing his own person best 2314 total yards, yet alone McCaffrey’s 2392.   Speaking of chases and having a record.  OJ Simpson…not a Jew.  Thank you Adam Sandler for clarifying that in your song,   Desean Jackson thanks you.   Simpson slashed his way to 2,000 total yards twice but never.   Sorry OJ, I didn’t finish my sentence either.  It’s ironic, OJ getting cut up, but gotta stay focused on McCaffrey here.  Bottom line, McCaffrey has been killing it.

Is his volume and productivity sustainable?  There’s nothing at the college or pro level that suggests otherwise.  But what about the quarterback situation and the surrounding cast in Carolina?  News flash, they sucked last year and I think he did just fine.

What’s not to love about McCaffrey.  Off the field, he has been positive role model, giving back to the community.  This is a guy who went on a mission trip to Rawanda and has recently created a program to raise money for healthcare professionals, who he acknowledges as heroes during the Covid pandemic.  It’s an understatement to say that he’s given back to his fantasy owners.  His stats speak for themselves and his guns are illegal in 22 states.  He is the consensus #1 pick in fantasy football for a reason.  If you have the luxury of pulling the first pick, don’t try to get cute or over-think it.  It’s Tricky, to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that’s right on time, it’s Tricky.  But with the 1st pick in your fantasy draft, there’s nothing Tricky about it.  Run CMC…all the way to your league championship.

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Mixon Drinks with a punch

Mixon Drinks with a punch.  Late to the party, pissin’ on the floor.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.  For Joe Mixon owners, last year was a Tale of Two Halves.  Over the first 8 games of the season, Mixon put up a meager 320 rushing yards and failed to score a touchdown.  This left many fantasy owners frustrated and ready to drop or trade him. If you held onto him, the patience paid dividends.   Mixon got his second wind and recorded an impressive 817yds and 8 rushing TD's in the 2nd half of the season.  Prorated for a full season that would have put him at 1634 rushing yards and 16TD's.   During the first half of the season, Mixon averaged only 12.63 carries per game.  During the 2nd half he nearly doubled his carries, averaging 22.13 carries per game.   With a rookie QB, Cincinnati may be likely to lean heavier on the running game again.  Mixon is a true workhorse with little to no competition for carries.  It is very plausible that Mixon could be sniffing around the 300 mark for carries.   Even with a dismal 4ypc, 300 carries still translates to 1200 yards.  If Mixon's production over the 2nd half of the season dips 25%, that would still be good enough for 1225 yards and 12TD's.

So we know about Mixon’s potential on the ground, but can he be a weapon in the passing game?  At the college level, Mixon averaged 2.6 receptions per game at Oklahoma.   That’s the equivalent to 41 receptions over a 16 game season.  Many will argue that Gio Bernard is the pass-catching back in Cincy. But in the past 3 seasons Mixon and Bernard have had mirror-image production, averaging 36 receptions per year. Coincidentally both backs have had seasons of exactly 30, 35 and 43 catches.   Sure, Mixon’s productivity may be capped by the presence of Bernard, but Bernard has 2yrs left on a contact worth over $9 million and could be a cap casualty to free up almost 3 million.  And Bernard isn’t exactly the poster child for health.  A Bernard departure would free up an average of 36 RB receptions.   If Mixon caught just one more pass per game, that would have him over 50 catches.  An additional 15 rec and 120yds would have put Mixon over 1500 total yards and made him the 7th highest scoring fantasy RB last year.

What about the QB situation? How often will Burrow utilize his running backs in the passing game.  Last year, the LSU offense was a fine-oiled scoring machine, with Burrow throwing for over 5600 yards and 60TD’s.  Clyde Helaire-Edwards had 55 catches.   There’s no doubt that Burrow’s arsenal will feature Mixon on designed passing plays, but Mixon will also be a serviceable and reliable dump-off option when the rookie is under pressure.   Mixon’s floor for receptions should be 40-50, but if something happens to Bernard, that number could be closer to 70.

 Mixon is no stranger to the endzone. He scored 26 TD’s in 25 college games and 17 TD’s in his last 30 pro games.  Mixon should be a lock for 8 TD's.   He was able to do so in an anemic offense in each of the past 2 years.  With new blood at QB and a ‘healthy’ AJ Green, Cincinnati may find themselves near the goal-line more often.   There are no other running backs on the Bengals roster to record a rushing TD last season.   Bernard is the only RB on the roster with more than 1 career rushing TD and we can agree that he is not a goal-line back, so it’s safe to say that when they’re down by the goalline, they’re gonna put the ball in Mixon’s hands.

 Mixon is a proven 3 down back with little-to-no competition for carries.  I'm looking at Mixon's floor being 18 carries per game, with a 4.1ypc, for 1180yds and 40 catches for 320ys.  That’s 1500 total yds and 8TD's.  You can’t piss on a floor that high.  If he gets 300 carries and 50 catches, you're looking over 1650 total yards, with the potential for double digit TD's.  That would make him a top 5 RB.   

Coming into the NFL Draft, the only Nix on Mixon was his off-the field issues.  But knock on wood, he hasn’t been Mixon drinks with a punch.   It would take a total moron to ignore Mixon's talents and Marvin Lewis is gone.  I'm expecting Mixon's production to be more reflective of the second half of last season.  No need for reservations here, Mixon yourself a drink, sit back and watch your pick help you pay off your league tab.

Projection: 288 carries, 1224 yds, 8TD, 51 rec, 408yds, 2TD (1632yds, 10TD’s).

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Poor Man’s Ingram? Lat Murray, just the tip.

2019, I wrote an article on Latavius Murray titled, Poor Man’s Ingram? Let’s recap my hits and misses on this one.

I had projected Murray to have 901 rushing yards. He only had 637, however the Saints only ran the ball 405 times, which was 66 rushes less than the previous year and 52 rushes less than their average over the past two years. Murray received 36% of the carries, not too far behind Kamara’s 42%. Just looking at carries that went to those two backs, the time share was a 46-54 in favor of Kamara. The previous year Ingram only logged 41%. So my analysis that Murray would get a similar workload to Ingram was on point, however the Saints did not rush as much as a team.

Given my projected workload, I predicted Murray’s TD floor to be at 6. He finished with 6 TD’s. I expected Murray to be trusted at the goal line, as he has demonstrated the ability to protect the ball. How many fumbles did Murray lose in 2019? Zero.

Murray was being drafted as an RB 4. I felt that he had RB2 potential. Amongst players at the position, Fantasy Pros listed Murray as finishing as the 28th RB in PPR formats and 30th in standard scoring. Not sexy, but he out-producing his ADP and when you are drafting, you are looking to get value.

I also pointed out that Murray was being drafted after the 9th round, with the potential to replace a top 4 RB. Kamara got hurt and missed week 7 and 8. According to Fantasy Pro’s, which RB scored the most fantasy points over those two weeks? None other than Latavius Murray.

Now Murray may not have won you your fantasy league in week 16, but if you were patient enough to hold onto him, he may have stolen you a couple of wins down the stretch to help you get there. And a tip of the hat to you if you were able to trade him to a panicked Kamara owner after week 8. 2020, the Saints will still be good. The Saints will play with the lead. The Saints 405 rushing attempts will likely increase. There will still be meat on the bone for Latavius Murray and we saw what he was capable of when Kamara went down. In year two with the Saints, Murray should be better acclimated to the system and there’s no reason for Peyton or Brees not to trust him. I’m not saying go all in on Murray, but he’s got a pretty stable floor and worth an investment that is merely the cost of throwing loose change in the tip cup.

2020 prediction:

165 carries, 726yds, 40 catches 276 yds (total yards: 1002), 7TD’s

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[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Ha-ha Clinton-Dix Dix n Clinton

JGFL Tribune, week 3 fantasy football recap

JGFL Tribune

Surprise surprise, trending in the news again this week, Antonio Brown. Cut by the Patriots after sending threatening text messages to his accusers. He should have spent his off-season working out with Shady McCoy, that way he could learn how to have your boys take care of a situation without legal repercussion. Brown has since decided to re-enroll in college, going back to school at Central Michigan University. Just think, that broadens his horizons, opening the door to a whole new pool of vulnerable women he can take advantage of. God I miss college. Yacko, remember the time you came up to campus and I shot you in the face point blank with a fire extinguisher for cock blocking me with this chick, then they had to evacuate the entire building when it was supposed to be 24-hr quiet hour for finals. But enough of my poor life decisions, the Antonio Brown dumpster fire continues to burn. We haven't seen a PRIMETIME celebrity self-destruct like this since Charlie Sheen. Two and half-men, sounds like 1 1/2 more than Primetime had at the draft. Mike and Mark may be the only ones holding onto hope with AB, but that hope is like an anchor, sinking them to the bottom of the fish bowl.

Primetime tanked week 3, with league low 42 points. Danny gave em Hell and showed them how to do a QB-WR/TE stack with the Wentz-Ertz pairing. Cousins-Diggs? Come on Mike, when you stack turds you're left with a pile of shit, get me a skimmer, bowl needs cleaning.

Speaking of Bowl cleaners, Glen's finally drying out after a rough draft. Give him a break, he was at the party table and he only drinks on special GOLLODAYS. Mittens had a week 3 matchup with tablemates UCF. Chop em out, Damian was JONESing. But there was nothing United about UCF as Damian and Jim were overheard arguing over their lineup decisions. Should've started DESHAUN, it's elementary my dear WATSON. No shit Sherlock, we dropped the ball like AGHORLAR this week, 25 point swing benching those two. But who needs the COTY when you're in first.

Army made poor lineup decisions at every position, but they WOOD MOSTERT up enough points to BATTER the HUBBYS.

Some are calling the PIMPS closet Cowboy fans, but we ain't broke back, we got BILLS. No wins, but MILES ahead of where we were last year.

But the highlight of Week 3 had to wait until Monday night. Chicago, known as the Windy City because of the hot air blowing from politicians, took a trip to the Nation's Capital, where there is no shortage of hot air. Scott was rocking 66 with Hell's BELLS, holding a 13 point lead, FAY-cing only the Bears defense.

Did you know that Watson was named 'Bill' after the Bill of Rights. Rightfully so since he was born the year it was written. In his senility, he quoted the 2nd Amendment stating, the GLADHEATERS would like to exercise their right to Arm Bears. This proved to better then Washington, relying on the arm of Keenum. The Bears defense Trumped their CASE, dropping a 30 pack on them. The Bears skinned their hides. Even Adrian Peterson showed frustration on the sidelines. I know, you were expecting me to make AP-ness joke, but I've matured. Ha-Ha, just kiddin, here it comes. It was the former Redskin Clinton-Dix getting the last laugh. He had 2 picks, taking one to the house. Ha Ha, Clinton Dix. Ha-ha-ha-ha, Clinton taking Dix from the white house. Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix right into Scott's PooPah. Final score Gladheaters 83, Poobah 66. The win and 30 points catapulted the Glads from 11th to 7th.

Great week gentleman. Hope your team takes a Clinton-Dix in week 4, Sucka Mike Ditka, on behalf of the JGFL Tribune, Gilbert's back page, over and out.

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Week2 football pool recap

Chubb Rocks

In 2000, Bill Bellichick was traded from the Jets to the Patriots, in what is a very rare trade of a Coach. Patriots and Jets have not made a trade in the 19yrs since, until a week ago, when New England traded Demaryius Thomas to the Jets. A few days later, the Jets starting QB came down with Mono. Spy-gate, Deflate-Gate, Owners at the Washy Washy and luring Antonio Brown out of Oakland. I wouldn’t put chemical warfare past this guy. Anyway…

Going into the Monday Night Game, Linda was in the lead, chanting Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks. But be careful not to push too hard, we’ve all experienced a BROWN out before. Colin and Kathy were in the mix again, trying to be saved by the BELL with the Jets. BAKER some cookies, she’s gonna be up late for this one. Harry,you ain’t got a CHUBB going, mite as well go up to bed. Speaking of cleaning SIEMIAN up off the carpet, the Cleveland’s defense was unloading sacks, knocking the backup QB out of the game. LUKE away, did you see his ankle twist in the wrong direction? Uncle, Uncle, what the FALK is the safe word again? Down to their 3rd QB, we know how this is going to end. Last Monday’s game in Oakland was the last game to be played on a baseball field. But in NY, with the Jets starting QB out with the kissing disease Mono, the rest of the team must have gotten all the way to 3rd base because they seemed to have the sucking disease. The Jets collectively gobbled the goo, getting hosed down 23-3 by the Browns. J-E-T-S, stands for Just End The Season.

Congrats to Linda winning week 2 of the pool. Go Birds! Go Miami (yeah Nog, your teams sucks too)

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Week1 football pool recap.

Black Hole.

Week 1 of the pool is in the books. The weeks leading up to the season, the focus was on Antonio Brown. He had frost bite. Then he had helmet issues. Then he called his GM a cracker and threatened to hit him. Meanwhile back in Bristol, the Stephens were looking to cut ties with their site near the Poconos. We had some good times blazing those trails. As they said goodbye to Benigno, the Raiders also said no to A Brown and he had to go. Oakland would rather be known for the Black Hole than A. Brown hole and released him.

Good financial decisions from both the Raiders GM and Kathy. Although it didn’t save her as much as AB’s 30 million dollar signing bonus, Kathy was enjoying her cashback, driving her new CARR into the late Monday night football game. Needing a win from the Raiders, Kathy was trying to fend off Dana and Colin. Who’s Denver’s QB this year? It’s what you get when you combine a Falco and a Yacko. A Flacco. And those Bucking Fronco’s were looking to smash Kathy’s CARR. See kids, this is why we can’t have nice things. I told Kathy not to even let Mark and Dana into her house, but they were insistent to party in the basement, aka the Black Hole. Pour em up Scottie. So Dana and Denver both ventured into the Black Hole, both with the same outcome….they got fucked up.

Congrats to Kathy winning week 1.

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Antonio Brown’s new helmet. Yeah he’s being a Dickhead but the Raiders knew what he was when they signed him. If you date a whore, you can’t get mad when she sleeps around.

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Found out what happened to Antonio Brown.

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Matty Light vs Matty Ice

Matt Ryan has alternated between a good season followed by regression every year of his career. The past 8yrs, on odd even number years, he has averaged 4820yds and 33TD per season. Even numbered years, 4344tds and 24TD’s. It’s 2019, will we be getting the watered down Matty Light?

Protection: 4683yds, 32 TD

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Poor Man’s Ingram?

August 1, 2019

Mark Ingram has been a viable RB2, finishing inside the top 20 at the position in 4 of the past 5 seasons. Last season he missed the first 4 games due to a suspension, however, prorating his points per game would have placed him inside the top 20 across 16 games. Over the past two seasons, Ingram has been a viable RB 2 despite the emergence of fantasy stud Alvin Kamara. As draft season approaches, we want to know, who’s getting touches in the New Orleans backfield and will Latavius Murray be able to fill Ingram’s shoes.

Run the ball Andy! That was the sound of frustrated Eagles fans who were often victimized by poor clock management. And in last year’s Saints playoff loss to the Rams, with 1:58 left in the game, Payton called a pass play. It was an incomplete pass to Michael Thomas stopping the clock instead of calling a running play, which would have run the clock down. Rams tied the game with 19 seconds left and the Saints lost. But I’m not here to cry about non-call, ouch, too soon?

In most cases, teams pass when they are trailing and run more when they are leading. We already established that running backs on poor teams are likely to be inefficient in yards, ypc and TD’s. With that same mindset, good teams will play with the lead more, which means they will run more, which in turn means better rushing stats. From a fantasy perspective, we need to know who is getting these touches.

We know the Saints are a good team, finishing the last two seasons with 13 & 11 wins, respectively. Kamara is a major contributor to their success and will be drafted within the first 4 picks in most fantasy leagues. But does winning and losing effect ball distribution?

Looking at what the Saints have done over the past 3 seasons suggests a trend that it does. Over the past 3 seasons, Ingram has averaged 14.54 carries per game in which the Saints won compared to 10.38 carries in game in games they lost. Over the past 2 seasons, with Kamara those numbers are 14.57 carriers per winning game to 8.86 per losing game. That’s a solid 4-6 carries per game.

Currently, Vegas has the Saints over/under at 12 wins. Given the trend of 14.57 carries per winning game and 8.86 carries per losing game, in a 12-4, Ingram would have roughly 210 carries. Ingram’s ypc has dropped from 5.1 to 4.9 to 4.7. Easy math averages that to 4.9 ypc, which translates into a 1,000 yd season (1029yds).

But wait, Ingram is gone from this prolific offense and the Saints brought in Latavius Murray to fill the void. Is Murray just a poor man’s Ingram? Or will he be able to fill Ingram’s shoes without missing a step.

We already established that the Saints are a team that should finish above .500. Will they turn to Murray when protecting the lead? As the lead back in Oakland in 2015 and 2016, Murray was tied for the least amount of fumbles lost amongst RB’s who had at least 450 carries in that time frame. The following 2 seasons in Minnesota, he only fumbled once in 456 carries. Murray does have a nose for the end zone finding pay dirt 12 times in 2016. If you had that ball at the goal line, who would you give the rock to, an RB who is 5’9” 215lbs, 5’10” 215lbs or 6’3” 230lbs. That’s the height/weight for Ingram, Kamara, and Murray. At age 29, does he still have some gas left in the tank? Let’s hope so. During his pro-day in 2013 he was clocked at 4.38 in the 40. To put that into perspective, that’s faster then the combine results for speedsters Darren Sproles (4.46), Elliot (4.47), David Johnson (4.50), Ezekiel Gio Bernard (4.53) and Devonte Freeman (4.58).

Despite the 4.9 ypc average over the past 3 seasons, Ingram’s career ypc is just 4.5. Murray has a career ypc of just 4.1. Ingram’s avg over the past 3 seasons would put him on pace for 45 receptions per 16gms. As a starter in Oakland, Murray averaged close to 40 receptions per season. Their yards per reception are similar, Ingram 7 to Murray’s 6.9. The past 4 seasons, Ingram has put up 6, 6, 12, and 6 rushing TD’s (30). Over that span, Murray has scored 32 rushing TD’s. That should put his floor at 6 rushing TD’s.

If Murray gets the same workload left behind by Ingram, with his career ypc, he would be projected to received 209 carries for 856yds and 40 catches for 280yds, (1136 total yds) and 6 TD’s.

In a PPR, that comes out to 189 points, which would have put Murray inside the top 20 RB’s last year, making him a solid RB2. Given New Orleans offense and opposing defenses having to respect Brees and Michael Thomas, there’s a good chance those numbers could be higher.

ESPN’s ADP has Murray going as the 37th RB off the board 111th overall. That’s the 10th-12th round depending if you are playing in a 10 or 12 team league and most likely your 4th RB. Yes, you might view him as the poor man’s Ingram, but Murray has a pretty high floor as a RB2. Not only be a viable bye-week option, but also a weekly flex play. Not sexy enough of a pick for you? Dare I say Kamara gets…. now I don’t wanna put that New Orleans voodoo out there, but you know where I’m going with this.

So to recap, we know the Saints are projected to win a lot of games. We already what Kamara can do and he doesn’t need an increased volume to be a top fantasy option. Expected to be playing with the lead, not only can the Saints rely on Murray to protect the ball, but giving him ‘garbage time’ carries will help take some of the wear and tear off of Kamara, keeping him fresh & healthy for the playoffs, aka Todd Gurley. Ingram’s carries have to go somewhere and the Saints aren’t paying Murray $15 million over 3yrs for nothing.

Wow, a guy who has RB2 value in his current role, but with the handcuff potential to replace a top 4 fantasy RB AND you can get him after the 9th Rd. Sign me up. If Kamara gets hurt and you passed on the poor man’s Ingram, you’re the one who’s gonna be Bummed!

Projected stats:

Latavius Murray: 212 att; 901yds; 40 rec; 280 rec yds; 6TD’s – 190 fantasy points

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RB’s on crappy teams

Updated article originally written in 2017, looking at the production of RB’s on bad teams.

Updated June 26, 2019

In 2017 there were 8 teams that finished with a record of 5-11 or worse. In 2018 there were 7. Of those 15 teams, only 3 RB’s topped 1,000 yards (2017- CJ Anderson 1007 & Howard 1122, and in 2018- Barkley 1307). Note that in both TB (2017) and NYJ (2018), the top rusher had less than 150 rushes, so I combined the top two rushers on those teams).

2017: top RB averaged 898yds, 3.91ypc, and 4.5 TD’s.

2018: top RB averaged 924yds, 4.22ypc and 6.42 TD’s.

Past 2yr avg: 911, 4.07ypc, 5.4TD,

Over the past 6yrs, there were 44 teams with record of 5-11 record or worse. Of those teams, only 8 players have surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. That trend suggests that if you are on a 5 win team, there’s a 1 in 5 chance to crack 1,000 yards.

Out of those 44 teams, only 5 players scored at least 8TD’s.

2019, currently Vegas’ over/under odds for teams set at 6 or lower: Cincy (6), NYG (6), Oak (6), Arizona (5), Miami (4 ½). Those starting RB’s are Mixon, Barkley, Jacobs, Johnson and Drake. Past trends suggest that only one of these backs will top 1,000yds or have 8TD’s, yet three are ranked in the top 12 at the position.

Over the past 6yrs, there 21 starting QB’s who were Rookies. The only 2 RBs who have ran for over 1,000 rushing yards with a rookie QB under the helm were Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Jordan Howard (2017) and both had over 275 rushing attempts. On average, RB’s with a rookie QB have averaged under 6TD per season.

2019 RB’s who will have a rookie QB under center: David Johnson and Derrius Guice, and possible Mixon once Cincy defuses the red rocket Andy Dalton.

Now I’m not going out and saying don’t draft David Johnson or Joe Mixon, however it may be a factor to consider when torn between two players. On the flip side, as we have seen, opportunity equals production and neither Johnson nor Mixon has much competition for touches. Even if rushing yards are hindered by being on a poor team, both RB’s are good out of the backfield, creating a dump-off option for a young QB under duress, which could result in PPR gold.

(Below previously written and posted July 2017)

2016, the Bears had a record of 4-12. Amazingly Jordan Howard amassed over 1300 yards on the ground and 6 TD’s. Over the past 4 years, there have been 29 teams with a record of 5-11 or worse. Including Howard, only 5 times did the team’s top rusher crack 1,000 yards and only 3 times did the top rusher surpass 7TD’s. On average, the top rusher had 764yds for 4.72 TD’s.

According to oddsharks.com, Vegas odds on total season wins for Chicago is over/under 5.5 wins. With the same total as the Rams, there are only 3 teams that have lower odds (Clev, SF & NYJ each at 4.5). In other words, Vegas is projecting Chicago to finish as one of the bottom-5 teams in the league’s standings and the past 4 years, no bottom-5 team has had more than 5 wins. One could argue that these teams were bad because they had poor RB’s, however the teams’ records could be the reflection of a weak running game. Either way, chicago does not appear like a team that is going to contend for anything other than a top draft pick. There are plenty of holes on this roster and there is question at the QB position and they may be starting a rookie QB at some point.

Looking at the past 4 years, there were 14 QB’s chosen in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft that were starters or battling for a starting job. The only RB under a team with a rookie QB to crack 1,000 yds was Ezekiel Elliot in his record setting season last year. Elliott’s monstrous production skews these numbers, however the average top rusher for these 14 teams had still only 767yds for 6TD’s. That number drops to 700yds and 5.3TD’s if you exclude Elliott. Of teams with a Rookie QB, 5 of the 14 finished with a record of 5 wins or less and their top RB averaged 735yds and 7.2 TD’s. The Bears will either start rookie 1st rd pick Mitch Trubiski or Mike Glennon, who coincidentally was a 3rd rd pick of TB who was included in the 14QB’s mentioned above. The top rusher when Glennon was QB his rookie year had 532yds and 5TDs. Those numbers decreased to 494 and 2TD’s his sophomore campaign, which doesn’t look any more promising for Jordan Howard than a rookie QB.

Howard had a amazing rookie campaign. Defensive Coordinators have had a year to review tape on him though. Last year Howard averaged 5.2 ypc. According to Matt Harmon of amp.nfl.com, when Howard faced an 8-man box (on non-red zone carries), he averaged only 3.36 ypc. I expect much tougher sledding in his sophomore season, aka the Todd Gurley effect.

To recap, what we know is that Jordan Howard is the lead RB on a team with a Rookie/unproven QB, on a team that is projected to finish in the bottom 5 of the league. Historically, this does not bode well for a RB in this predicament. Maybe Jordan Howard is the truth and ready to defy these odds, however I’m not willing to gamble a late 1st rd/early 2nd round pick on him. For his ADP, I would much rather grab a RB like Devonte Freeman, Jay Ajayi or Demarco Murray if they are available; take my 2nd WR with WR1 upside like a Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins or Brandon Cooks, or go after the top TE in the game, Gronk.

Although I expect his ypc to drop, Howard has no competition for carries and will get a lot of volume.

Projections 304 carries, 1276yds, 35 rec, 356 rec yds, 7TD .

***Howard ended up having less carries and 1122 rushing yards, but I was on point with his ypc dropping. I had him at 4.2 and he finished 4.1, a full 1.1yd dropoff.

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Week 3 pool recap: Wipe front to back

Minnesota crapped the bed, wiping many people out of their suicide pools. This ain’t RIDLEY’S Believe it or not, but week 3 was full of surprises. Aubrey winning a 3rd week in a row…was not one of them. The early games were highlighted with the Atlanta rookie Calvin Ridley hauling in 3TD catches in a barn-burner with the Saints, but it was Alvin Kamara plunging into the end zone in overtime to secure the victory for New Orleans. Philly’s red-zone defense remained fortunate once again while Indy’s LUCK ran out. And the Browns won a game. There were a lot of factors in play, but I’m certain me referencing the number of days since their last win helped mush them to victory. This game also featured the biggest A-hole move of the week. A few years ago, then Browns RB Isaac Crowell was banned from 2 of Gilbert’s fantasy leagues after tweeting a picture of a cop getting his throat slit. To our dismay, he’s still alive, free and now playing for the NY Jets. Crowell made his return to Cleveland. Their home field dubbed the Dog Pound, these die hard fans fill that stadium week in and week out, despite not winning a game in over 400 days. Crowell scores a TD and celebrates by wiping his ass with the football and tossing it into the stands. Yes he displayed the proper form, wiping from to back. Ladies take note you don’t wanna sweep dirt into the kitchen. But regardless the celebration was classless, treating the Browns fans like #2. Karma got him though and it was the Jets getting Steamed in Cleveland getting Dutch BAKER’ed after the highly tooted rookie QB took over for Turdrod Taylor.

Back to week 3 in the pool where Mojo was wiping his ass with the competition. Making a push for the win, Joe was hovering over a victory, but Paul and a Manero were hanging around like a bunch of dingleberries . Still don’t know which one, but Mojo doesn’t give an F either way, he wasn’t CHAYKIN in his boots. All he needed with a Pittsburgh win Monday night. Paul and Frank didn’t need a miracle, they just needed a little FITZ-magic. It seemed like everyone, even the Catholic Church were backing St. Paul and St. Francis, preaching a GOD-WIN. But you know Mohel Joe had his Ju-Ju going. Sorry Harry, you have to go out back. Just like in Tampa, in Joe’s Florida room, no Winston’s allowed. Tampa’s QB was still suspended for this tilt stemming from a 2016 incident where he groped a female Uber driver. If he wanted a handie, he should’ve signed up for Lyft.

Speaking of being down for a good Buc, thought it was Steelers against the Bills? Oh I misunderstood. My bad, it was Big Ben against her Wills. Ironically Winston got thrown out rounding 1st base, but Roelisberger never missed a game after being accused of rape. Just like the Monday’s game, Ben had a better Defense and the Buc’ing may or may not have been forced to Turnover, but that’s a mute point because he CONNER into a settlement. Despite a late Tampa comeback effort, Pittsburgh Steeled a win for Mojo.

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Week2 Football Pool Writeup, F-you I'm out!

Déjà vu? Cum Again?  Aubrey was looking for Round 2, meanwhile Newcummer Paul was looking to make his mark, shooting for his first win of the Gilbert football pool.  Let’s recap what led to the climax.

Things got started off right on Thursday, and Aubrey was seeing GREEN after a 3 TD performance by the stud receiver.   But by 4pm Sunday, that FITZmagically disappeared as the Eagle’s Green Flag was stained like the BROWNs after getting Buc’d in the ass by Tampa.  

Speaking of Brown stains, Cleveland’s consecutive games without a loss ended at 1.  But it wasn’t a BREES in New Orleans as it took a last minute FG for them to pull out the win.  Cleveland’s last win was December 24, 2016.   But those loyal fans in the Dawg Pound still have more BARKley then the Giants did vs. Dallas.  Those guys never quit.   Unlike Vontae Davis.  Buffalo sucks so bad that one of their players quit at halftime.  Literally, this guy put on his street clothes and left the stadium and retired from football in the middle of a game.  Anyone else have a shitty day at work recently?  How many friends do you have that make $283,000 a year?  This dipshit makes $283,000 per game!!!!   He walked away from a salary of 2.25 million with a possibility to earn another 1.5 million bonus.  He was like fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, you’re cool, fuck you, I’m out.   Even Josh GORDON isn’t half-baked enough to do that.  Good luck flipping Burgers buddy. 

Sorry, got side tracked, now back to the football pool. 

There was a great match-up in the NFC North between Green Bay and Minnesota.  The Tundra was anything but frozen as the players COOK’d in the heat, but the Vikings TREADWELL.  Davis may not be the only player’s who’s career may be over.  Rookie kicker CARLSON’s career may have last only 2 games as he missed two Field Goals in overtime and Green Bay was able to salvage a TY.  During the post game interview, Carlson said he would be kicking himself in the ass, but missed wide right. 

Heading into the Monday night game, Aubrey needed a Chicago win.  Paul was LOCKETT in on Seattle, but needed the win and a point tie breaker.  Someone call the fire MARSHALL because Chicago exercised their right to BEAR arms.  The Seahawks were in TRUBINSKI early and Chicago’s defense was relentless.  WILSON faced more sacks then Jenna Jameson.  Chicago won Aubrey didn’t need to be PROSISE with the points.

Hey another $50 for our household, I swear I can here clicking on Amazon.com as we speak.  And I’m sure that $50 will only cover the minimum payment.  But I still can’t get Vantae Davis out of my head.  Suddenly $50 doesn’t seem like that much compared to $283,000.  Thanks a lot Vontae Davis for ruining my day.  I would only need to win the pool 566 times to match what he makes per game.  Since I can’t quit my job, I’m gonna park a white van up in a Moorestown section and ruin some other rich bastards day.   

With Aubrey’s 2nd consecutive win, I’m sure there were about 30 F-you’s directed at her.  I know there are only 27 in the pool, but I let a couple slip under my breath too.  Damn I think she heard me.  Did she just talk trash on Bears Hall of Famer and coaching icon?  Not sure, but on her way out the door she just told me Sucka Mike Dikta, F-you, I’m out.

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Brandon Cooks Aubrey Doesn't

Week 1 Football Pool Recap

Week 1 of the Gilbert family football pool started out sloppy to say the least.  In a battle of the birds, Atlanta was Saving Ryan’s Privates for the last play of the game, but it was the Long-Cox tandem giving them the Philly Philly Special.    

 The Pittsburgh-Cleveland game was a total Brown Out, but at 0-1-1 the Browns are off to their best start since 2004.  And they’re ahead of Dallas and NYG in the standings.  

The Tennessee-Miami game was delayed so long the players took a short yellow bus home.  

Liver still bleeding from Thursday night, we headed into the Sunday night game with Aubrey, Linda and one of the Franks tied for most wins.  Seriously these pricks created an account with the same exact name/  You’d think one of these Paisons  would edit their account.   But the daygos on and Linda and Frank got ready for the Sunday night game.  They were looking to pair their wine with some cheese-heads.   Yeah I left out Aubrey, she was making dinner, hahaha.  Oops she gets these emails, I don’t want to get into TRUBINSKI.  But what a game!  Green Bay was ready to PACK it in after RODGERS was carted to the locker room, but what happens in Green Bay stays in Green Bay.  They must have shot him up with all sorts of shit.  I think it was a combination of PCP and Viagra, because Rodgers was on another level, feeling no pain and F’in the Bears up and down the field all night. 

Everyone picked Green Bay, so that didn’t change the standings.  If I told you I thought about taking the Jets Monday Night, I’d be Lion (and still alive in my suicide pool).   It all came down to the late Monday night game between the Los Angeles Raiders, I mean Oakland, wait are they in Vegas yet? The Raiders vs.  LA.  Yes the Rams, who else would I mean.  What?  San Diego Chargers are now in LA too?  There are two Los Angeles’?   Get a map, Nog’s head must be ready to explode.  

Anyway, week 1 of the pool came down to the Raiders and Rams game.  Linda was beating Harry with a pool noodle rooting for John Gruden and the Raiders, but Oakland was like Harry and their CARR was a mess.  Linda of course blamed Harry for the loss and called him a Jerk GOFF.   

With the Rams coasting to a win, it would come down to total points, with Aubrey (44) and Frank (51).  Frank said, get in the kitchen where the GURLEY’s belong.  Little did he know that BRANDON COOKS, but Aubrey doesn’t.  I hope you’re wearing your KUPP because it was a kick in the dick when Greg the Leg ZUERLINE who made 95% of his FG’s last year, missed a FG that could’ve sealed it for Frank.   

Congrats to Aubrey, week 1 winner with a record of 11-5.   Side note, Linda would’ve won if she didn’t pick Dallas. 

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

King of the Hill-Jeremy

(written August 10th, 2018, prior to Gillislee's release)

Jeremy Hill will win the goal-line back job in New England.  Let's take a look at him compared to his competition.

Jeremy Hill.  Hill is only 25yrs old, younger than White, Gillislee and Burkhead, but still an established NFL back, having the 4th most rushing TD’s in the past 4 years, despite barely playing last season.  Hill’s 28 career NFL rushing TD’s are more than Gillislee (16), Burkhead (8) and White (2) combined (total of 26).   That’s 28TD’s in 54 games compared 26 TD’s in 131 games.

Hill had 29 rushing TD’s in only 2yrs of college.  

Sony Michel had 33 TD’s over 4yrs of college on 590 carries, which is a TD every 17.9 carries.  Hill’s 29 TD’s came on only 345 carries, which is a TD every 11.9 touches.

James White amazingly had 45 rushing TD’s in college, but over 4 years.  White more known in the NFL as a 3rd down back, had the same number of catches as Hill did his first 2 collegiate years and only 3 receiving TD’s.  His highest reception total was 39.  

Gillislee had 20 rushing TD’s in 4yrs of college. 

Burkhead, never avg. 2 catches per game in college and any of his 4yrs of collegiate football and amassed only 1 more TD than Hill despite Hill only playing 2yrs.    

In College, Hill averaged 6.2 ypc compared to White 6.2, Michel 6.1, Gillislee 5.3 and Burkhead 5.2.

In the NFL, Hill’s avg. ypc is 4.1.  Last year Burkhead 4.1, White 3.8 and Gilllislee 3.7.  

Hill’s 11 rushing TD’s led the NFL, just 3 years ago.  The following year, Patriots RB Blount led the NFL in TD’s with 18.   Needless to say, the goal-line back for the New England Patriots will be in a good position to put up double digit TD’s.  

Jeremy Hill has proven at both the college and pro level that he has a knack for finding the end-zone.  Michel is a rookie with knee issues coming into the NFL and has already had a procedure on his knee.  In addition, he is missing valuable training camp/preseason time to learn the offense.  In college, Michel had ball control issues, fumbling once every 54 touches.  Belichick is not known for being a patient or forgiving man whose doghouse is usually enter only, just ask Jonas Gray. 

Despite his success as a runner in college, White’s NFL career he has been more of a pass catching back and his role will not change.  That leaves competition with Gillislee & Burkhead for goal-line duties. 

Gillislee, outside of week 1, was not effective last year at the goal line or in short yardage and is a one dimension back.  

Burkhead mite be a dual threat, being able to run and catch, however Hill has out performed him in both those areas at both the collegiate and NFL level.  Burkhead rode the pine behind the younger Jeremy Hill for 2yrs in Cincinnati.  Besides having a year in New England under his belt, I don’t see why Hill cannot pass him on the depth chart. 

So how far-fetched is it that a younger, proven and more productive RB like Jeremy Hill will beat out an injury prone, fumbling rookie, an ineffective short-yardage guy, and a player that he has out-performed and started over his entire career.   Shall we say deep sleeper, in New England?  I’m anointing Jeremy, King of the Hill.

[fantasy-football-degenerate]

Quick hits

A few fantasy stats and trends 

JAX:

Melvin Gordon nay-sayers are quick to point out he averages under 4.0 ypc.  Guess what, so did Fournette.  Last year, Fournette played 16gms including playoffs, had 338 rushes.   338 x 3.9 = 1318yds.  Not a bad floor. 

KC Hunt, exploded out the gate first 3 games.  Last game had 1 carry for 35yds, so throw that out. From weeks 4-15, ypc was only 3.83 and 4 TD’s.  

LA RAMS

Gurley had less than 15 carries 13 times in career.  12 of those games were losses.   The Rams are a good team.

MINNESOTA

Cook was on pace for 296-1416-8 before he got hurt.