deadondannyk

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A Look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders: Flameaway and Justify

We’re less than two weeks away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. The Run for the Roses. We had some developments since the last post. Gronkowski suffered a set back and is now out of the Kentucky Derby. Quip has also pulled out of the Kentucky Derby and is now pointed to the Preakness. That means Combatant and Instilled Regard are now in the gate.We’ll look at them next post but for now, we’ll stay on schedule.

Flameaway had a very strong three year old campaign. After running on turf in the Breeders Cup, he returned to dirt in the Sam F Davis where he picked up the win as a 10-1 longshot over heavy favorite Catholic Boy. He returned in the Tampa Bay Derby and nearly ran down eventual winner, longshot Quip. He made his final prep in the Bluegrass, running second to Good Magic in a race that saw them both lead the entire way. He was unable to catch him at the end which begs the question, does he have what it takes to beat the top tier in this crop?

Justify is the great mystery here. He was considered one of the top favorites before he ever ran a graded stakes race. He took the Santa Anita Derby, going gate to wire, beating out Bolt D'Oro and little else in terms of competition. What's the mystery? Well, he's run in one maiden race and one allowance race prior to this. He also had a free and clear trip in the Santa Anita Derby. He set the pace, sat in front by himself with no challenge, and then released down the stretch. It's not going to come so easy at the Kentucky Derby. Competition will be stiff. Add the fact that this year's California campaign was rather weak. He's still the expert's top pick and will likely be the post time favorite. He definitely has a solid shot to win it. It'll be interesting to see what happens if he's challenged out in front.

Tomorrow, we'll continue our look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we work our way up the leadboard. We'll take a look at Combatant, Instilled Regard, Mendelssohn and Enticed

[deadondannyk]

A Look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders: My Boy Jack, Bravazo, and Solomini

We’re less than three weeks away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. The Run for the Roses. The first Saturday in May. We are less than three weeks away from, The Kentucky Derby. Over these next few weeks we’ll be taking a look at every horse in contention. We’ll be going in order from the last spot to the first spot according to the leader board.

My Boy Jack has had bit of an up and down prep season. After running third in the Sham Stakes he went to Oaklawn and won the Southwest. He ran third in the Louisisana Derby and was forced, by necessity, to run in the wildcard Lexington Stakes where he needed a win to qualify. He won but it wasn't easy as he only won by a nose with a strong stretch win. It was encouraging to see him bearing down on Noble Indy and Lone Sailor in the Louisiana Derby as it showed he'll handle the Kentucky Derby distance without issue. He's another one that will sit back and not chase the pacesetter. He'll need to kick it in gear down the stretch to have a shot but it's not out of the question.

Bravazo won the Risen Star Stakes as a 21-1 longshot after passing up 41-1 longshot Snapper Sinclair down the stretch. He benefitted from a pedestrian pace in that race, a luxury he was not afforded when he ran eighth in the Louisiana Derby as the pace was much quicker and he just didn't have it when they reached the top of the stretch. By the time he hit the stretch, most of the field passed him up. A slow pace might benefit him but the real question is, can he handle the distance? He'll be one of the longest shots come post time and he'll need a special effort to compete.

Solomini was regarded as one of, if not the, top horses of this year's class. Trained by Baffert, the son of Curlin ran in three Kentucky Derby prep races as a two year old. He took a good amount of time off before running his first race as a three year old in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, where he finished a not-so-threatening second to Magnum Moon and then again in the Arkansas Derby where he ran third. In a total of five Kentucky Derby prep races, he failed to win any of them, but finished second or third in all of them so he tallied the points needed for the Kentucky Derby. He's a very good horse, who just has not put together that one complete race. Sometimes, it happens at the Kentucky Derby.

Tomorrow, we'll continue our look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we work our way up the leadboard. We'll take a look at Flameaway and Quip.

[deadondannyk]

A Look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders: Lone Sailor, Free Drop Billy, and Promises Fulfilled

We’re less than three weeks away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. The Run for the Roses. The first Saturday in May. We are less than three weeks away from, The Kentucky Derby. Over these next few weeks we’ll be taking a look at every horse in contention. We’ll be going in order from the last spot to the first spot according to the leader board.

Lone Sailor ran a strong second in the Louisiana Derby, battling eventual winner Noble Indy all the way down the stretch and falling short by a neck. He's a horse that likes to do his best running later in the race, making is move along the far turn and competing down the stretch. He was unable to catch Noble Indy in the end. He ran ninth in the LeCompte. He was up among the leaders in a quick pace and faded in the stretch. Distance shouldn't be a problem for this horse but speed could be. Timing will be everything.

Free Drop Billy has had a solid three year old season so far. He ran second in the Holy Bull, third in the Gotham, and third in the Bluegrass. He also won the Breeders Futurity as a two year old so he tallied up some good qualifying points. His third place finish in the Gotham is viewed as a disappointment, not because he didn't win (Enticed was much the best that day), but because he finished far behind a 35-1 longshot who ran second after almost going gate to wire. He made it to third after Sporting Chance got DQ'd. While his three year old season has been solid, he's netted zero wins and will need vast improvement to even contend in the Kentucky Derby.

Promises Fulfilled is an interesting horse. He started off his three year old campaign going gate to wire in the Fountain of Youth, beating out two year old champion Good Magic. He set a moderate pace that was manageable and finished strong. Strike Power and Good Magic couldn't catch him. In the Florida Derby, he ran out in front again except this time, set a pace that was ridiculous, and just had nothing left coming around the far turn. Can he handle the longer distance? We don't know. We didn't have a chance to see that. What we do know is, if he sets a :21 1/4 mile fraction in the Kentucky Derby, he'll end up dead last.

Tomorrow, we'll continue our look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we work our way up the leadboard. We'll take a look at My Boy Jack, Bravazo, and Solomini.

[deadondannyk]

A Look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders: Gronkowski, Firenze Fire, and Hofburg

We’re three weeks away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. The Run for the Roses. The first Saturday in May. We are three weeks away from, The Kentucky Derby. Over the next few weeks we’ll be taking a look at every horse in contention. We’ll be going in order from the last spot to the first spot according to the leaderboard. 

Gronkowski has made it to the field by way of the European circuit of qualifying races. He most recently took the Burradon Stakes in Newcastle, UK. It was a straight run mile on dirt and he ran it in 1:37. He was originally going to ship to the US and run in the Bluegrass Stakes or possibly the Wood Memorial but the way the points work in the European circuit, they wouldn't have translated and he would've needed a first or second place finish in order to qualify, which if he's going to be taken serious as a contender for the Kentucky Derby, he should've had no problem doing that. Instead, he stayed in the UK, got his victory, and guaranteed himself a spot in the gate. He currently sits at odds of 40/1 and will probably hover around that by post time.

Firenze Fire ran the entire New York slate of prep races dating back to the Champagne Stakes at Belmont as a two year old. He picked up wins in that race and the Jerome in January as a three year old. He also grabbed second place in the Withers before consecutive fourth place finishes in the Gotham and Wood Memorial. He seems to have regressed a bit with each step up in class and hasn't won any races in excess of a mile. He currently sits at 45/1 and I can't imagine him garnering much money to win this race and will probably stay a huge longshot come post time.

Hofburg is a very lightly raced horse, having only run once as a 2 year old and breaking his maiden at Gulfstream as a 3 year old, at 1 1/16 miles, before scoring a second place finish in the Florida Derby. While he wasn't catching Audible, he did close out the that race strong and took second rather easily while coming from way back. He's a deep closer and distance doesn't seem to be an issue for him which begs the question, what can he do with an extra 1/8 of a mile? He's currently at 25/1 but I have a feeling that if he trains well, he'll get some love and come down to about 15/1 - 18/1 come post time. He'll still be a longshot but hardly the longest on the board.

Tomorrow, we'll continue our look at the Kentucky Derby contenders as we work our way up the leadboard. We'll take a look at Lone Sailor, Free Drop Billy, and Promises Fufilled.

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: The Field is Set

At the turn of the new year, horses start gearing up to kick off their three year old season, and of course, preparing to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Sham Stakes at Santa Anita kicked off the 2018 prep season. There are a handful of races that are run as two year olds, most notably the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, which was won by Good Magic. The prep season officially came to a close on Saturday evening with the running of the Arkansas Derby. The leader board is now official and no other points will be awarded.

VIEW THE KENTUCKY DERBY LEADER BOARD

Magnum Moon has shined yet again, this time running right out in front and going virtually gate to wire. Quip gave him a small challenge around the far turn but Magnum Moon surged down the stretch. Nobody was catching him. And he had plenty, I repeat, PLENTY left in the tank. Quip did hold on for second, scoring 40 points to add to his total Solomini did nose out Combatant for third, giving him enough points to qualify as well while the ten points gained by Combatant leaves him on the outside looking in. He's ranked 20th but this year, the Kentucky Derby has extended an offer to a qualifying UK horse, Gronkowski, so Combatant has to wait to see if there are any dropouts in the next couple of weeks. We already have one dropout, as Runaway Ghost has suffered an injury and is out of the Kentucky Derby.

There was another race with qualifying points at stake and that was the Lexington Stakes. My Boy Jack was the only horse who had a chance to qualify for the Kentucky Derby by picking up the 20 points that the winner is awarded, and he did just that. He sat back, worked his way and took over the lead down the stretch and picked up the win and got his spot in the gate for the first Saturday in May.

Now that all the prep races have been completed, we'll take a look at all the contenders. Each day, we'll post a little breakdown of a horse and talk about his prep season. We'll start tomorrow with Gronkowski and Firenze Fire.

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: Vino Rosso Returns to Form in the Wood Memorial

This weekend we saw the big three in terms of prep races. Every year, on the same date exactly one month before the Run for the Roses, we're treated to three of the six major U.S. prep races, The Wood Memorial, The Bluegrass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby. We've hit the a point where the field is all but set. It just depends on how things play out at next week's Arkansas Derby and the wildcard race, The Lexington Stakes.

View the updated Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

The Wood Memorial was interesting from the start. Enticed was the heavy favorite after his easy Gotham Stakes win last month. Restoring Hope was a Baffert-trained colt who was taking a shot at qualifying. Firenze Fire was completing his full cycle of New York prep races since the beginning of the year. Then there was Vino Rosso. A horse who grabbed third in the Sam F Davis Stakes but was bearing down hard on Flameaway and Catholic Boy as they crossed the finish line. He followed that up with a very disappointing Tampa Bay Derby performance where he pulled 5 points for a fourth place finish but was far back. That was not the case this past Saturday. He sat way back and then stormed to the front at the top of the stretch. He and Enticed battled fiercely but he drew away at the end to return to the Vino Rosso that everyone expected earlier this prep season. Entied grabbed second, scoring him 40 more points and putting him triple digits. Restoring Hope held on for third but he won't qualify and Firenze Fire is hoping to hold on. He's in 18th place with 39 points so how things play out this coming Saturday will determine his fate.

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: Good Magic Gets His Win at the Bluegrass Stakes

This weekend we saw the big three in terms of prep races. Every year, on the same date exactly one month before the Run for the Roses, we're treated to three of the six major U.S. prep races, The Wood Memorial, The Bluegrass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby. We've hit the a point where the field is all but set. It just depends on how things play out at next week's Arkansas Derby and the wildcard race, The Lexington Stakes.

View the updated Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

The Bluegrass Stakes was a crowded field. The full gate of 14 horses ran in the major prep race. Good Magic finally got his major prep win. The two year old champion failed his last time out but made good this past Saturday. He sat off the pace, made his move at the far turn, and took the lead at the top of the stretch. He battled off a game Flameaway to grab the 100 points and prove that the champ is back. Now, the Bluegrass Stakes winners haven't fared very well. It's been a long time since a winner came out of this prep. But much like how Justify has a shot to break Apollo's Curse, Good Magic has a chance to break a long streak of Bluegrass Stakes winners that have failed to win the Run for the Roses. He won't be the favorite but he should be among the top favorite and have attractive odds. Flameaway battled and grabbed second, giving him 40 points and solidifying his spot. He's had a good prep season as well, winning the Sam F Davis and running second in the Tampa Bay Derby. Free Drop Billy grabbed third through DQ as Sporting Chance blocked when he veered way outside down the stretch. Free Drop Billy has enough points to qualify as well.  

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: Justify Wow’s in the Santa Anita Derby

This weekend we saw the big three in terms of prep races. Every year, on the same date exactly one month before the Run for the Roses, we're treated to three of the six major U.S. prep races, The Wood Memorial, The Bluegrass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby. We've hit the a point where the field is all but set. It just depends on how things play out at next week's Arkansas Derby and the wildcard race, The Lexington Stakes.

View the updated Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

It was the showdown that horse racing fans were waiting for. Bolt D'Oro, off his San Felipe Stakes win, taking on a new challenger in Justify. Instilled Regard also returned to join the fray. There was a lot of talk about Justify, a horse who has only run in a maiden special weight and an allowance race prior to the Santa Anita Derby. Experts were already saying he's one of the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby. He ran out in front, had a free and clear trip the whole way, and Bolt D'Oro, despite being all out, was unable to catch him. In fact, Justify was drawing away as they crossed the finish line. That impressive showing made him the clear cut favorite in the Kentucky Derby. He will be the morning line favorite. There's no doubt about that. Bolt D'Oro did finish second, gathering 40 points and bringing his total into triple digits. Instilled Regard didn't show up at all in that race and he failed to qualify barring several withdraws.

Justify has a really good shot at taking the Kentucky Derby this year. He didn’t run as a two year old which means he can be the horse to break Apollo’s Curse. We shall see. 

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: The Updated Leaderboard and Four Preps Remain

Two more championship series prep races down, four to go. We saw the running of two 100-40-20-10 races this past weekend, The UAE Derby and the Florida Derby, as well as the final UK prep which qualified Gronkowski for a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate. Mendelssohn ran away with the UAE Derby and Audible proved to be much the best in Gulfstream. We also saw a few more horses drop out of contention, most notably Catholic Boy, who's disappointing fourth place finish in the Florida Derby has left him out of the Run for the Roses unless several horses above him drop off due to injury or other circumstances. Gold Town also failed to duplicate his success in the Guiness 2000 in Dubai as he was only good enough for fourth in the UAE Derby and will not qualify for Kentucky.

View the Updated Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Mendelssohn is being talked about as the potential favorite for the Kentucky Derby after his 12 length victory in Dubai which also saw him finish in a time that rivals most Preakness winners at the 1 3/16 mile distance. He was indeed, impressive and absolutely crushed that field which also saw likely Kentucky Oaks favorite Rayya and US shipper Reride  come in second and third respectively. It was already revealed by Bob Baffert that Rayya is indeed focused on the Kentucky Oaks so only one horse is coming out of Dubai to take a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohn, who already won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, is getting a lot of attention for his big time victory. Only time will tell if he does end up the favorite in Kentucky.

There is nothing left to fear. Audible skipped the Fountain of Youth after his dominating win in the Holy Bull. It was a risky move but he killed that field which saw Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power go full out in the first quarter mile in a blistering 21 seconds. Audible sat way back and made his move around the far turn and soared past the rest of the field at the top of the stretch. Hofburg gave it his all to try and catch him down the stretch but to no avail. Audible was much the best here once again and will undoubtedly be one of the favorites in Kentucky.

This weekend, we have three of the final four major races going off with the Wood Memorial, The Bluegrass Stakes, and the Santa Anita Derby.

The Wood Memorial has drawn the attention of a couple of horses who didn't get the result they were looking for a month ago in other races. Most notably, the Baffert-trained son of Curlin, Solomini, has chosen the Wood as his final prep after his runner up effort in the Rebel Stakes. Another son of Curlin, Pletcher-trained Vino Rosso has also decided to move up to New York for his final prep after two failed stints to achieve victory in Tampa Bay. Firenze Fire is going to give it another go to try and add some points his total which currently has him teetering on the fence. Add in the Gotham Stakes winner Enticed and we have a solid field for the Wood Memorial next Saturday.

The Bluegrass Stakes has also drawn the attention of some top horses who have moved from the Florida circuit as well. Good Magic, who was only able to pull off a third place finish in the Fountain of Youth, decided to run here instead of staying in Gulfstream for the Florida Derby. He will be joined by horses that ran in the Tampa Bay prep races, including Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip, and Sam F Davis winner and Tampa Bay Derby runner up, Flameaway. Sporting Chance will also join the field here after two prep races in Oaklawn. This is Good Magic's opportunity to show that he can run with the top tier horses in this year's class. He has a good chance of making the field already so any points here will solidify his spot but it has to be more for him now. Quip is in. Flameaway is on the bubble so he needs a good showing to give himself some insurance points.

The Santa Anita Derby was the highly anticipated rematch between Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie. Unfortunately, we won't get that rematch as Bob Baffert announced on Saturday that McKinzie suffered a minor injury and has been removed from that race. They will evaluate him to see if he can still go for the Kentucky Derby. He has 40 points so he's likely already qualified. It hasn't been formally announced as of this writing but it looks like Justify will be pulled from the Arkansas Derby to run in the Santa Anita Derby instead. Instilled Regard is returning to California for this race as well, after running two prep races in Louisiana and skipping the Louisiana Derby.

The field is almost set. Once the big three races in Saturday are over, we'll have most of the horses qualified and then we can start tracking their training regimens leading into the Kentucky Derby.

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: Who’s In and Who’s Out After Last Week’s Preps?

The Louisiana Derby has now come and gone. It was the first of six major 100-40-20-10 races run in the US leading up to the Kentucky Derby. All eyes were on the rematch from the Risen Star with Bravazo squeaking out the win over Snapper Sinclair. Noble Indy returned in an attempt to rebound from his third place finish in that same Risen Star. And what role would the addition of My Boy Jack play in all of this?

View the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

There were two big stories that came out of the Louisiana Derby. Noble Indy picked up the win and the 100 points in a closely contested race. The Pletcher-trained colt had just enough to hold off hometown, and feel good story horse, Lone Sailor. Both had My Boy Jack bearing down on them at the end as he stormed on for a third, with about half a length separating the three. No one else was really close today, which is very disappointing for Risen Star winner, Bravazo and runner up, Snapper Sinclair. Bravazo, pulled up around the far turn a bit and couldn't get back into it. However, there is currently no news on any health issues and with his win last month, is already a lock to make the gate at Churchill. Snapper Sinclair, however, is all but out. He sits at #16 on the leaderboard with 22 points. There's not enough time for him to get another prep race in without rushing it and with six more major preps left, his chances are looking bleak.

There was another prep race this weekend. It took place on Sunday at Sunland Park. Runaway Ghost stormed down the stretch and blew the field away. He secured 50 points and a spot in the Kentucky Derby. There were no other horses even close, save for a late, non-threatening bid by longshot second place finisher, Dream Baby Dream but he wasn't catching the son of Ghostzapper.

This week, we have two more major prep races. The Florida Derby and the UAE Derby. The results of the action out of Meydan will be in early due to the eight hour time difference. European shipped, Mendelssohn, trained by Aiden O'brien, has been dominant in GB and Ireland. He's likely to be the favorite but it won't be easy because the local Dubai horse, Gold Town, dominated the Guiness 2000 last month by a wide margin. it's going to be a race.

The other major prep is the Florida Derby and the highly anticipated return of Holy Bull winner, Audible. There's going to be some different company this time around though as Catholic Boy is looking to get back in the winner's circle after running second to Flameaway in the Sam F Davis, falling short by a neck as the heavy favorite. A top three finish will get him into the gate but he needs to prove he can beat this company. Fountain of Youth winner, Promises Fulfilled will also run. He already has 52 points a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby gate after a big win last month. Another Curlin progeny joins the fray as well when the Dale Romans-trained King Zachary steps up in class and takes his shot at making the gate after a dominating win at 1 1/16 miles on this track. Audible will have his hands full and he really needs a first or second place finish to guarantee himself a spot in the Run for the Roses.

We'll get some more answers after Saturday's races. Who's going to come out of the UAE Derby victorious? Did Todd Pletcher make the right decision holding Audible out of the Fountain of Youth? Will Catholic Boy find the winner's circle?

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: Unanswered Questions Going Into the Major Preps

Earlier tonight was one of the final races in the first leg of the Championship Series and it was yet another race that was to showcase one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders, just to see that heavy favorite come in second. Solomini didn't just come in second. He barely held on as Combatant was bearing down on him in a major way.All for not though because no one was catching the 3/1 second favorite, Pletcher-trained Magnum Moon, who ran away with this race down the stretch and was pulling away when he crossed the finish line. We now have a new horse to look at when the Arkansas Derby comes along next month.

View The Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Now that the last of the 50-20-10-5 races are complete, save for the Sunland Derby next week, we move into the 100-40-20-10 races, which also start next week with the Louisiana Derby.

It's hard to believe it's already been a month since 21-1 longshot Bravazo nosed out 41-1 longshot Snapper Sinclair for the win. Big favorite, Instilled Regard only managed fourth and second favorite Principe Guilherme didn't even touch the board. The Risen Star's top three finishers return along with a few new faces. Southwest Stakes winner, My Boy Jack, joins the field and Retirement Fund returns to Fairgrounds where he already has two wins at route distance. Avery Island was slated to be in this race but unfortunately, he suffered an injury during training this week and is off the Kentucky Derby Trail.

The following week is the Florida Derby, and the highly anticipated return of Holy Bull winner, Audible, who won that race in a big way. When everyone thought Enticed and Free Drop Billy would be the horses to watch in that race, Audible opened up everyone's eyes as he won going away. This will be his first race after that and with only 10 qualifying points from his Holy Bull win, he needs a top two finish in a Florida Derby that will include Fountain of Youth winner Promises Fulfilled and top contender, Catholic Boy, who also needs a big score after only managing second place in the Sam F Davis last month. Not running between the Holy Bull and Florida Derby was a risky move for this horse, but if he wins, it'll prove to be genius because he'll be well-rested and well-prepped.

It's worth noting that there is a horse running in Dubai that's getting a lot of love as a major Kentucky Derby contender. Gold Town, who won the UAE Guiness 2000 by nearly ten lengths, posted a time of 1:37 but that's only because he was pretty much at a trot for the last 100m of that race. This horse jumped to the lead in the back stretch the afterburners kicked on down the stretch as he left all the other horses in the dust. The UAE Derby runs at 1 3/16 mi, which is technically the longest of the prep races so it'll be interesting to see how that ends up.

On a somber note, the horse racing world said good bye to three year old Kentucky Derby hopeful, Mourinho. The Baffert-trained colt suffered a sesamoid fracture in his front leg in training this past Monday and was euthanized. RIP Mourinho.

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: Who’s In? Who Could Be Out?

Yesterday, we had a trifecta (no pun intended) of first leg Championship Series races that has made the Kentucky Derby picture look a little more clear. Of course, what would this year's prep season be without a big time long shot winner. Quip, at 19-1, stretched past Flameaway to pull off a major upset in the Tampa Bay Derby, scoring the 50 qualifying points and punching his ticket to the first Saturday in May. Enticed, off a disappointing 4th place finish in the Holy Bull, scratched from the Fountain of Youth last week and went to New York to run in the Gotham. Down the stretch, he coasted for the easy win and guaranteed himself enough points to reach the gate in Kentucky. Finally, the San Felipe Stakes delivered everything everyone wanted out of the race. Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie met at the top of the stretch and battled all the way to the finish, where McKinzie nosed out the win. In a strange turn of events, there was an objection and McKinzie had bumped Bolt D'Oro and the finish was changed, giving Bolt D'Oro the win and McKinzie was placed second. Both horses have enough points to qualify, but are still sure to meet at the Santa Anita Derby next month.

We now have a handful of horses who, barring any injuries or setbacks, are guaranteed a spot in the gate at Churchill Downs. Bolt D'Oro leads the pack with 64 points. Enticed is second with 63 points. Bravazo is in third with 54 points. Promises Fulfilled is in fourth with 52 points. Quip is currently fifth with 50 points after his win today, and McKinzie is sixth with 40 points.

View the full Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

While tonight's race gave us four pretty much guaranteed entrants into the big race, we also found out a lot about some hopefuls who have a tough road from here and perhaps may want to look for other options like targeting the Preakness or foregoing the triple crown races altogether.

One big disappointment had to be Free Drop Billy. After running second behind the very impressive Audible in the Holy Bull, he went up to New York and ran a very disappointing third. He picked up 10 points and he sits at tenth with 24 points, but the performance just wasn't there. He was the heavy favorite and was far behind the top two finishers. He has one more chance to make some real noise and will have to pick his spot wisely.

Firenze Fire was another disappointment. He has been running in New York for pretty much his whole career so far. He won the Champaign and the Jerome and ran second in the Withers. It wasn't the fourth place finish that was disappointing. Fourth place in this field isn't bad considering the competition. He was just never in the race. He was never a factor. That's the let down. I said after his second place finish in the Withers that he should jump off the trail. Well, he is still garnering points and if is in the top 4 in the Wood Memorial, he'll get a spot in the Kentucky Derby. I guess anything can happen on the first Saturday in May. Right now the goal is to get there. But if he wants to be a contender, he needs to improve drastically from yesterday's poor effort.

And finally, the most disappointing performance came from Vino Rosso in the Tampa Bay Derby. With the scratches of Enticed and Free Drop Billy, he became the heavy morning line favorite. Come post time, he wasn't the favorite anymore. That honor went to eventual third place finisher, World of Trouble. So what happened with Vino Rosso yesterday? He ended up a far back fourth and was never even close. It wasn't the same horse we saw in the Sam F Davis Stakes last month. This was a poor, poor effort.  If they decide to give him one more shot at making the Kentucky Derby field, we'll probably see him in the Wood Memorial, the Bluegrass Stakes, or the Arkansas Derby. The distances will be longer and the competition much more fierce. He can always run in the Lexington or Federico Tesio and point to the Preakness. We shall see.

Next week, we have the Rebel Stakes in Oaklawn on Saturday, which features a pair of top Baffert-trained colts, Mourinho and Solomini, as well as a trio of Asmussen-trained colts led by Combatant who has 12 points after back to back second place finishes in prep races at Oaklawn so far this year. D. Wayne Lukas brings Hopeful winner, Sporting Chance, who ran third in the Southwest on this track last time out. Mark Casse brings Curlin's Honor for his first try at a route distance after an impressive win in allowance company on February 25th. And Todd Pletcher brings Magnum Moon for his first try in graded stakes company after cruising to victory in a two turn mile allowance race on February 15th. The Rebel will be a race to watch next week.

Each Saturday gives us an opportunity to get a better feel for how the gate is going ot look come May 5th. Things are definitely heating up. After next week's Rebel, we move into the second leg of the Championship Series and the point totals move to 100-40-20-10. The Kentucky Derby will be here before we know it.

[deadondannyk]

Road to the Kentucky Derby: The Championship Series Begins

This past weekend saw both the conclusion of the 2018 Prep Season and the beginning of the first leg of the Championship Series for this year's Run for the Roses. The Fairgrounds race was a major shocker as 21-1 longshot, Bravazo, caught 41-1 longshot Snapper Sinclair to win the Risen Star. In doing so, he picked up 50 points and now sits atop the leaderboard and has already punched his ticket. Snapper Sinclair grabbed 20 points bringing his total to 22 points. He sits at #4. Most are shocked by the poor performance by heavy favorite and top Kentucky Derby contender, Instilled Regard's 4th place finish. The Southwest Stakes, which was the final 10-4-2-1 prep race, also delivered a shock as 8-1 shot My Boy Jack who came from way back and won in a huge way, taking it by 4 lengths and was still flying across the finish line in the slop. The heavy favorite, Baffert-trained Mourinho, barely held on for 4th and will look to the Rebel Stakes next month to try and get back on track.

You can view the updated leaderboard here.

We get next weekend off while a couple of overseas races can possibly deliver a contender or two if they so choose to make the trip, but then we kick things into full gear the following week with the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Some of the early probables include Kentucky Jockey Club winner, and Holy Bull fourth place finisher, Enticed, Holy Bull Runner Up, Free Drop Billy, Withers Stakes third place finisher, Marconi, and the highly anticipated three year old debut of Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner, Good Magic, who blew the field away in Del Mar back in November and will finally be returning to the Derby trail. Conspicuous by his absence is Holy Bull Winner, Audible, who is pointed to the Florida Derby. This is a curious move by Pletcher because Audible would realistically need to either win or place in the Florida Derby in order to qualify, since he's skipping the Fountain of Youth. If he's doing this to avoid facing Good Magic, well, he's gonna have to face him eventually. I don't agree with him skipping the Fountain of Youth, but I'm not a hall of fame trainer either.

The following week has three big races with the rest of the top names finally making their way back to the trail. The Tampa Bay Derby will see a rematch from the Sam F Davis Stakes between Flame Away and Vino Rosso. We may also see Withers winner, Avery Island. The Gotham Stakes will see the return of Firenze Fire, who has to prove that he can make it past a mile. Second place finishes will get him enough points for the Kentucky Derby but he needs to win one to show that he can run with the top echelon of horses. Finally, there's the San Felipe Stakes in Santa Anita. This race looks like it will feature a trio of top horses with the undefeated, multiple graded stakes winner, McKinzie, Breeder's Cup Juvenile runner up, Solomini, and Del Mar Futurity and Front Runner Stakes winner, and Breeder's Cup Juvenile third place finisher, Bolt D'Oro.

The Road to the Kentucky is starting to heat up. Everyone who's been following since the beginning of the year has been waiting oh so impatiently for horses like Good Magic, Solomini, and Bolt D'Oro to finally emerge. While these race participants are all considered probables right now, these also reflect the likely places where these horses will begin their preparations for the First Saturday in May.

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Road to the Kentucky Derby

We are exactly three months away from the Run for the Roses. On May 5th, twenty of the year’s top three year old horses will enter the starting gate in Churchill Downs for the $2 million prize and the right to call themselves the Kentucky Derby champion. Several horses have already garnered points toward qualifying for the first Saturday in May. We’ll talk about this past Saturday’s three prep races as well as the upcoming Sam F. Davis prep at Tampa Bay Downs. Be sure to follow because I’ll be posting pieces dedicated to all the contenders as the prep season goes on.

View the updated Kentucky Derby Leader Board

ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES

This race was set up to basically put Shivermetimbers back on the map after pulling a disappointing 4th in the Sham Stakes last month. The co-favorite disappointed even more as he was only able to manage 7th and barring a miracle, will probably not factor into the Derby field. Lombo went gate to wire in impressive fashion and will try his luck in the San Felipe Stakes next month, where he’ll face top horses like Mckinzie and Mourinho.

THE WITHERS

Avery Island proved to be a legit Kentucky Derby contender in this 1 1/8 mile race in New York. He stalked a fast pace and rolled down the stretch with little contention. He also ran 2nd in the 1 1/8 mile Ramsen Stakes in December. With Catholic Boy taking his trail down south, Avery Island will be the class out of New York this year. The other story here is Firenze Fire. This was his chance to prove he can contend in races over a mile and while he ran second, it was unimpressive. He already has 24 qualifying points so he’s in a very good spot to make the gate with any top three finishes in the next two prep races but if he’s going to be a true contender, he needs to show he can come up big in the Gotham and Wood Memorial.

HOLY BULL STAKES

Audible made his three year old debut as well as his first graded stakes race this past Saturday at Gulf Stream when he rolled to an impressive victory in the Holy Bull. He ran a picture perfect race and blew the field away down the stretch. It’s another Pletcher/Castellano connection. He’s currently pointed at the Florida Derby so we may not see him in the Fountain of Youth next month. Breeders Futurity winner Free Drop Billy ran second to pick up the 4 points but was never a factor for the win here. We’ll almost certainly see Free Drop Billy along with Tiz Mischief in the Fountain of Youth.

SAM F. DAVIS STAKES - THIS SATURDAY

Making his long anticipated 2018 debut is Catholic Boy. A turf horse turned dirt runner who absolutely blew the field away in the Ramsen Stakes back in December at 1 1/8 miles. But he won’t be going into this race without a legit challenge by undefeated Curlin colt, Vino Rosso, who will be making his graded stakes debut. Another contender is Hollywood Star, who hasn’t won since his maiden but is no stranger to graded stakes company including placing sixth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. The rest of the probables are horses who seem to be still trying to find their identity, The real showdown looks to be Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso.

The Kentucky Derby prep season is heating up. Spring will be here before we know it and the field will really start taking shape. My next post will be a closer look at the horses atop the leader board.