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Mythical Matchup: Conor vs Khabib

Originally written in August 3, 2018 for Combat Docket

It has been a long time coming but the UFC lightweight championship bout between newly crowned champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor is finally upon us. The highly anticipated contest was expected to happen on multiple occasions while McGregor held the title, but for one reason or another, it never came to fruition. Now the two once in a lifetime athletes are set to fight at UFC 229 in Las Vegas. It is rare we get a title matchup with so many different variables that can lead to victory or defeat for both competitors. Here I will explore what both incredibly gifted lightweight fighters will need to do and avoid to emerge victorious on October 6.

In the clip above you see Khabib getting blasted with a straight left from Michael Johnson as he moves in. Like McGregor, Johnson is a southpaw fighter so this is the same situation Khabib will find himself in when he shares a cage with the brash Irishman at UFC 229. Khabib’s nonstop pressure breaks his opponents more often than not. With that said, McGregor is great fighting off the back foot and countering fighters who move forward, which could work against Khabib aswell. The power, accuracy, and killer instinct of Conor McGregor gives him a better chance to finish Khabib than Michael Johnson had should he land a strike like the one in the gif below:

Every fight starts on the feet and It would be an understatement to say that this heavily favors former lightweight and featherweight champion Conor McGregor. While current undisputed lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov possesses a highly underrated striking attack, trying to kickbox with McGregor would be a fatal mistake. Offensively Khabib is known as a grappler, but he can be very unpredictable. He has a solid uppercut that he landed numerous times against Michael Johnson at UFC 205. Defensively Khabib uses a stance similar to that of Floyd Mayweather with his left typically protecting the lower body and his right protecting the head. While this works for him sometimes, he is no Floyd Mayweather and shots get through often enough to leave him in trouble against superior strikers.

This straight left by Conor McGregor started a sequence that would end tough Philadelphia native Eddie Alvarez in the second round. This fight is a great example for the contest with Khabib Nurmagomedov. Like Alvarez, the Russian powerhouse has a tendency to rush in with his strikes and rarely move backward as he looks to eventually get a takedown off of any little mistake made. However, this isn’t all bad news for the undefeated champion. While moving forward and looking for big punches didn’t bode well for former lightweight king Eddie Alvarez, it did help him initiate the clinch, where Khabib Nurmagomedov is absolutely dominant.

The clip above shows Alvarez rushing in and getting clipped by a punch, however, he ended up with a clinch up against the octagon cage. While Conor was able to effectively defend against anything Alvarez wanted to do in the clinch, he faces a whole new animal when he steps into the cage with Khabib Nurmagomedov. Sure, Khabib can get traditional takedowns by shooting from the outside. However, the clinch game is really his bread and butter and if Khabib can successfully initiate a clinch the way Alvarez did it is safe to say McGregor will be unable to stop him from getting the fight to the mat and negating any chance for McGregor to land one of his devastating knockout punches.

As you see above when Khabib gets Michael Johnson against the fence he ties Johnson’s right leg up with his left leg and launches him to his left side before securing the top position with a trip. This is just one of the many tricks that Nurmagomedov can use to get an opponent down while inside the clinch. The sambo and wrestling specialist possesses a multitude of trips and slams that form a very technical clinch game that has been nearly impossible to stop in his 26-fight career. It is safe to assume that Michael Johnson is a better wrestler than Conor McGregor and he had absolutely nothing for Khabib in that department.

If this fight ends up on the mat then the general consensus is that Conor McGregor will be done. While this isn’t necessarily true for the Irishman, Nurmagomedov is a special talent on the ground. Contrary to popular belief, Conor McGregor isn’t terrible on the mat like some would suggest. When fresh he was able to sweep a very talented BJJ black belt in Nate Diaz. In some ways, Khabib’s advantage on the ground is similar to Conor’s advantage on the feet. Khabib Nurmagomedov is not a bad striker despite what you may hear, but if he strikes with Conor McGregor he is likely to end the fight sleeping on the mat. Similarly, if Conor McGregor ends up on his back, he is in all likelihood going to end up catching a severe beating and losing either by TKO or submission.

A smaller, less powerful wrestler in Chad Mendes was able to take McGregor down and pound on him for the better part of five minutes whilst on short notice. To his credit, McGregor was able to survive that beating and end a tired Chad Mendes in the second round with accurate and powerful punches and kicks. This fight showed that on his back Conor McGregor can not only be controlled but he can also be thoroughly pounded at the same time. Unfortunately for Chad, his inability to keep that pace saw him too tired to repeat that performance in the next round and allowed McGregor to secure what was at the time his biggest career win. Khabib Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, has a phenomenal cardiovascular ability.

The impeccable ground attack of Nurmagomedov is relentless. He put a nonstop, hellacious beating on Johnson at UFC 200 by easily outwrestling him and smashing him from dominant positions. It is difficult to believe that Conor McGregor will be able to accomplish on the mat or in the clinch what Rafael Dos Anjos and Michael Johnson couldn’t. Khabib was able to thoroughly out grapple accomplished grapplers and he did so with relative ease barely breaking a sweat and talking to UFC president Dana White in between rounds as well as his opponents during rounds.

This fight is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup taken to a whole new level. Conor has shown an uncanny ability to out strike great strikers and end his fights in incredible fashion. Khabib has been able to dominate wrestlers in wrestling and jiu-jitsu practitioners on the mat. Whats makes this fight so interesting is the fact that these two are the absolute best at what they do making for what is truly one of the most intriguing fights ever made. When these two finally do share the cage at UFC 229 it will come down to execution. Both men have shown a great ability to implement their game against every opponent they have faced, and now they will have to do it once again, but this time against each other.

X-Factor

Both of these men have something that make them special. Aside from being able to outstrike his opponents, Conor McGregor has devastating knockout power in his hands. This is his clear X-Factor when he fights. His confidence comes from knowing that even when he is losing he doesn’t need much more than a few carefully chosen shots to win a fight. You can see it after his tough first round with Chad Mendes. Instead of being frustrated, McGregor laughs in his face and smiles all the way back to his stool. It speaks to his confidence in his fight finishing ability, and so does his 86% knockout ratio.

The X-Factor for Khabib Nurmagomedov has to be his strength. It is all anybody seems to talk about when they train with him. Current light heavyweight and heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier even marvels at the sheer strength of Nurmagomedov. I guess wrestling bear cubs as a child really does have its perks. When he fights his otherworldly strength is apparent, as you see him manhandling fighters who are generally difficult to bully. His ability to throw around high-level wrestlers and hold down high-level grapplers shows an uncanny level of dominance that is has thus far been proven difficult to overcome for anybody who stands across from him.

Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov is easily one of the most intriguing fights in MMA history. Two guys who are so dominant in one aspect of the game creates a true 50/50 gamble. If Conor can successfully use his footwork, speed, timing, and accuracy to find the mark with his devastating left hand then he will leave with another dramatic, career-defining win. If Khabib manages to secure the clinch position he will take this fight to the mat, and if Khabib gets the fight down his relentless attack, outstanding cardio, and unparalleled grappling will see him walk away from UFC 229 the victor. On October 6 the Irish Lion and Russian Bear will enter the UFC octagon for their long-awaited battle in Las Vegas in a fight that could be the biggest fight the UFC has ever put together.

[bcthetruth]

On Second Thought: Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou

When UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic faced off against devastating knockout artist Francis Ngannou at UFC 220, the champion emerged victorious by way of unanimous decision. Leading up to the fight Stipe Miocic was looking to make history by breaking the UFC heavyweight title defense record, while Francis Ngannou was dubbed as his scariest challenge to date.

Watching the fight live I saw what everyone else appeared to see. Stipe Miocic used a smart gameplan to nullify the power punching of Francis Ngannou and The Predator gassed out rather quickly after failing to make anything happen with both his takedown defense and ground game.

There were many narratives that followed that contest and among the more popular narratives was that Francis Ngannou does not have a competent ground game or takedown defense. Other narratives revolved around his cardio being below average. My immediate thoughts following that 25 minute title fight wasn't much different from those aforementioned narratives.

Recently I decided to rewatch that historic clash that etched Stipe Miocic's name into the record books, and now my thoughts have changed. Were we wrong this whole time? Is the narrative that followed that fight due to the shock of how dominant Miocic did Ngannou do as bad as many believe he did?

Watching the fight again you can definitely make an argument against Francis Ngannou's cardio. The main issue in assessing his cardiovascular ability is that we don't have a large test pool. However, the fact is Francis has gone to a decision three times in his seventeen-fight career and he lost all three of those fights. At UFC 220 he gassed particularly fast. He didn't seem to have much left once the second round begin although he does have four second round finishes on his record. After watching again I concluded that the criticism surrounding Ngannou's cardio is justified. Some of the criticism is blown out of proportion, but there are legitimate reasons to question his gas tank.

After my rewatch it was clearly his cardio and gameplan that was the main factor contributing to Francis Ngannou's uninspiring performance. Unlike my original viewing, I see little indication of his takedown defense or ground game being as bad as I once made it out to be. In fact his ability to get back to his feet or stop a takedown while completely exhausted was rather impressive.

In the first round there are a few places this fight went south for the challenger. It was clear that Ngannou expected more striking exchanges before the first takedown attempt. Stipe Miocic is a guy who went toe-to-toe with other power strikers like Junior Dos Santos and Mark Hunt, it's reasonable to assume he'd be willing to exchange with Ngannou as well. The first takedown seemed to catch Ngannou off guard but he easily made his way back up. Once he broke the clench he unleashed a flurry of huge power shots most of which didn't land and it undoubtedly put a strain on his cardio. He still successfully stuffed takedowns and scrambled back to his feet from a successful takedown that saw him under the champion in side control.

The following rounds would see Stipe Miocic ware on a tired Francis Ngannou who appears to have had an adrenaline dump following his flurries and scrambles in round one. However, Ngannou still managed to stop an ample amount of takedown attempts. He also made his way back to his feet on quite a few occasions which made the fight largely take place in a clinch position on the cage. Yes, there are moments in the fight were Ngannou just lays on his back, but this is more a result of him fighting on empty rather than him not having any ground skills.

In conclusion, I believe that me and many others were incorrect in our prior assessment of this championship contest. In the moment you don't always perceive things exactly as they are. While there are definitely moments where Francis didn't do anything off his back, it's completely normal to find moments of rest when you are exhausted.

Since that fight Stipe Miocic has gone 1-1 with Daniel Cormier and it appears a trilogy fight is on the horizon. Francis Ngannou has gone 3-1 with big wins over Junior Dos Santos, Cain Velasquez, and Curtis Blaydes as he hopes to receive another chance at gold in the near future.