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Final Thoughts

The blogging assignment and simulation built on eachother in a very academically productive way. Personally speaking I was not familiar with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict beyond significant events in the region which made their way to major US news outlets. Due to the limited information on the conflict prior to the course seeking an array of sources with Arab and Israeli lean provided a strong foundation for understanding contemporary issues in Israel. I really enjoyed getting to familiarize myself with Haaretz, and the Times of Israel and then comparing the findings to articles in papers like Al-Jazeera which offered completely different analysis at times. 

The simulation was a unique and engaging assignment. While other classes offer simulations this class forced students to embody the policies and beliefs of groups that are ideologically and culturally opposed to one another. The research conducted alongside constructive “coalition” conversations outside of class strengthened everyone's understanding of the wide range of issues facing Israel, Palestine, and other involved states. Additionally having multiple days to work through the most difficult issues forced concessions and horse trading to progress stalemates and think critically on paths forward. Both assignments worked great together and as a result I am leaving this class with a stronger understanding of the history and contemporary challenges facing Israelis and Palestinians.

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Electing a way out of occupation

Israeli election are captivating because of how often they occur and because who is running for Prime Minister which in recent years has revolved around Benjamin Netanyahu. While the government of Israel is far from that of the Palestinian Authority the key players are very similar in their strong motivations for the power to govern. The last Palestinian election took place in 2006 when Hamas won landslide victories against Fatah leading to a weak coalition and later civil conflict between the two parties and the expulsion of Fatah from Gaza. In the 15 years following the last election Mahmoud Abbas has been the President of the Palestinian Authority. This longstanding role which could be argued dismissed the voices of Hamas advocates has also consolidated Abbas’s political power. A key component of the upcoming election is the ability for Palestinians residing in East Jerusalem to take part in the vote, an act which Israel has inhibited. Palestinians hope to make East Jerusalem their capitol while Israelis see any legitimate Palestinian vote in the territory as an intrusion into their sovereignty. This stance has enabled Abbas to avoid an election on principle while also feeding his personal ambition to remain in power as polls show his chances to remain president are declining. Multiple sources note that an election is necessary to maintain international support and give voice to the Palestinian people. Anything short of the scheduled election in May would be seen as a cancellation feeding into the idea that Palestine can not implement free and fair elections. This ability to implement elections is a test for Palestinians and a threat to right wing Israelis who do not believe the two peoples can co-exist in terms of culture and governance. Abbas like Netanyahu is faced with a choice to do what is right for his people to see the PA grow or follow self interest to the detriment of the all Palestinians in Israel and the occupied territory. An election looks very unlikely at this time, but palestinians deserve a democratic voice and if not in Abbas a new leader will hopefully prevail in the coming years.

Link to Article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-expected-to-delay-election-but-could-pay-heavy-price-diplomatic-source/

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Flare ups in Jerusalem

Jerusalem has long been the epicenter of the tension between Israelis and Palestinians in Israel. Zionist and Palestinian factions have had continued clashes in recent decades based on claims to the holy land. Recently violent conflicts have re-emerged with many in the media suggesting that the battles are a result of many political factors, but this analysis fails to account for the situation in Jerusalem. While the media is attributing recent flair ups to political and religious overlaps the picture may not be as complex. It is true that the Israeli far right party Lahava has led marches throughout Jerusalem during Ramadan, but the group should not immediately become a scapegoat for increased tensions. This is because Jerusalem is always a hyper-political region because of the claims to land, holy sites, and regional ties. Taking a step back the situation in Jerusalem could equally be a result of pent up frustrations from both Israeli’s and Palestinians. As Covid lockdowns ease, weather encourages people to be outdoors, and political protest re-emerge during a hyperreligeous time for both groups a cultural collision seems inevitable. The perfect conditions for renewed violence after a short ceasefire were present and it is up to the leaders on both sides to disengage the hostilities. Hamas will undoubtedly play a huge role in what happens next as increased rockets will result in a aggressive Israeli response. As Israeli’s and Palestinians work to end the flare ups it is the leaders who will have to bear responsibility for any harm that comes to the people who have in many ways been waiting for this ticking time bomb to explode.  

Link to Article: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-jerusalem-is-on-the-brink-of-an-explosion-and-israel-has-no-leaders-to-prevent-it-1.9745754

https://apnews.com/article/israel-middle-east-arrests-religion-jerusalem-061233156f943eca545be83a4f2ebbaf

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The perception of conflict

The Gaza strip has become synonymous with Hamas and its attacks on Israel. Over the weekend a retaliatory Israeli Defense Force air raid targeted the region in response to rockets which were fired into southern Israel by Hamas. This attack put the cyclical nature violence on display as the explosions raised tensions on both sides. Thankfully there was no loss of life as a result of Israeli or Hamas led attacks, but the recent instances of violence put the power and weapons capabilities of the two parties on display. While the rocket from Hamas fizzled into southern Israel the IDF led air strike destroyed a training facility, an anti-aircraft missile launch post, and a concrete production plant allegedly tied to terror tunnel infrastructure. It is not that Hamas is not a threat to Israel as terror is a part of their history and is their leverage of any political gains today. However, without any means for increasing the economic and political opportunities in Gaza Hamas is thrust back to launching their relatively weak weapons capabilities to gain attention of Israel and the global community. At the same time Israel using IDF forces could raid Gaza by land, or air while simultaneously imposing sanctions and soft power remedies. There is no question that Israel is and has been in a position of power over Hamas, but the question becomes what now. How long does it take for a retaliatory air raid to take civilian life and supply Gaza and Hamas the incentive to escalate tensions yet again.

Link to Article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/17/israel-strikes-gaza-targets-after-rocket-attack

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Is a direct vote the future for Israeli PM’s?

The bleak outlook of Netanyahu’s government forming a majority coalition in the Knesset has led the Prime Minister to lean into alternate paths to electability. This supposed path would change the Israeli electoral process imposing a direct election for Prime Minister. Shas is pushing the legislation that would enable Netanyahu to bypass coalitional gridlock, but the legislation has a tough battle ahead of it. The legislation would require a pro-Netanyahu majority on the arrangements committee which sets the agenda for legislation during the interim. The formation of the committee depends on legislation proposed by both the pro- and anti- Netanyahu groups vying for more seats which will determine the feasibility of any changes to the electoral procedures. Amidst these proposals the anti-Netanyahu block embraces Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid’s prospects of forming a coalition for which he believes he has secured the support of 45 Members of the Knesset. As it stands Netanyahu has two more weeks to form a coalition at which point Lapid would have his opportunity to secure the Knesset, Government and Prime Ministership. It is unclear if Netanyahu supports the direct vote for PM as a policy matter, or if he is troubled by the path to a coalition but it is clear that all options are on the table for the PM as his corruption trial is ongoing.

Link to Article:https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-as-coalition-talks-fail-netanyahu-hails-direct-vote-for-pm-as-way-out-of-deadlock-1.9725276

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Provoking the Palestinian electorate

As Netanyahu works to establish a majority coalition in the Knesset to avoid yet another election a Palestinian election is set to take place on May 22nd. As the electoral work has been taking place in Palestinian territories raids on Monday night led to the arrest and detention of 25 Palestinians many of whom were prominent members of Hamas. The raids raise two issues the first being disruption of the Palestinian election and the second being the detention of Palestinian citizens. The arrest of 25 members of Hamas is not a stand alone event, it is a continued pattern of intervention by Israel which has in turn limited the direction and political future of the party itself. The position of Hamas is not prone to change as a result of the arrests and relatively new leadership in Ismail Haniyeh, but the continued intervention only feeds into the darker elements of Hamas. Israeli arrests and detention of Palestinians is not a new phenomenon according to analysts. They estimate 4,450 Palestinians are held in Israeli prisons including women, children, and administrative officials. Taken together the frustrations of non-militant members of Hamas become clear. Thousands of community members including women and children are arrested by Israel in raids alongside 560 political leaders in the past 15 years which limits Palestinian political voices for change and opportunities for stability within their semi-autonomous regions. It would appear that the lack of stability is not something that Israel hopes to solve so to eliminate continued violence, but something that Israel continues to feed into propelling the cycle of conflict.

Link to Article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/12/israel-arrests-hamas-members-in-occupied-west-bank-raids

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The uphill battle to an Iranian nuclear deal (POST 4/12- slightly late)

The Iran nuclear deal has been a central point of US middle eastern policy. The importance of the deal is not due to US fear of Iranian nukes as a matter of domestic safety, but the threat such weapons would pose to Israel the strongest ally the US has in the Middle East and possibly the world. As the Biden administration works its way back to the table with Iran Iranian authorities blame Israel for a recent explosion that has the makings of sabotage. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif the explosion did not fulfill the alleged Israeli intent of weakening Tehrans bargaining power during the talks. In turn Zarif said it strengthened the Iranian position in terms of the negotiations. While the United States claims not to have had any role or knowledge of the attack the historic connection with Israel will certainly come to play in any revitalization of the nuclear deal. One of the most important factors of the explosion was its relatively limited destruction. Iran has stated that the alleged attack's will not stop their drive to enrich uranium and in the near future will expand their nuclear program. While many aspects of the explosion are unclear at this time what is clear is that Iran has an intent to develop their nuclear program and any future deal will be an uphill battle for both the United States and Israel.

Link to Article: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/iran-s-zarif-says-israel-made-very-bad-gamble-by-sabotaging-natanz-site-1.9707318

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No legal remedy to Israel’s election woes.

As the anti-Netanyahu block hope the current Prime Minister fails to create a majority coalition the realities of a legal intervention seem to be non-existent. While the trial officially began April 5th a former judge for the Israeli judiciary stated the case will likely take no less than three years. While the article clarifies the reason for the time frame the outcome of the prolonged trial is a great benefit to Netanyahu who is looking at possibly three more years of immunity. If Netanyahu were to find his way back to the role of Prime Minister he may continue to find ways to sidestep charges incentivizing him to remain in the role for the greatest opportunity for avoiding charges. By doing so Netanyahu would also avoid jail time and a stain on his legacy. I find the legacy aspect most important as it can be a driving factor for good and bad policy decisions, but if there is an opportunity to benefit yourself and party while avoiding legal repercussions for doing so unethically there is no fear of tarnished legacy. A telling sign for how Netanyahu will play the optics of the trial will be visible following the prosecutions opening remarks. After these statements Netanyahu will be able to leave the courtroom which may help indicate how strongly he opposes, or is worried about the case against him. Regardless of the outcome of the case the important fact is that if Israeli’s want to hold Netanyahu accountable the only option is to vote him out of office.

Link to Article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/retired-judge-predicts-netanyahu-graft-trial-will-last-at-least-3-years/

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Rivlin to the rescue

As Israel sprints to its fifth election in six years president Reuven Rivlin finds himself in a familiar position. Political power in Israel emanates from the Knesset leaving the president to a largely ceremonial role. However, this time Rivlin possesses the greatest opportunity to engage Netanyahu and redirect Israel’s political future. As a class we spoke of the electoral process and likely outcomes, but ignored Rivlin as a political force. He has two possible options to assert himself in the process each of which could possibly diminish his political capitol. First Rivlin could break precedent by enabling a party who gained fewer seats than Likud to try building a majority coalition first, or he could intervene when and if Netanyahu were to fail at the same endeavor. The other option would be to refuse Netanyahu as the the proposed candidate for Likud because of the ongoing corruption trial. While the second option would drastically change Rivlin's image and possibly destroy his legacy I prefer this option because it seemingly causes the least damage to 3rd parties who took a stand against Netanyahu. The second option could redirect Israel’s current policy gridlock and allow the state to move forward on pressing matters while Rivlin’s term is to end this year making the nuclear option more plausible. While the burden is not on Rivlin to create a government it is his burden as a stateman to put his countries future first despite any temporary tarnishing of his image. Unlike Rivlin the stain of corruption will follow Netanyahu far past this election and any potential conviction. 

Link to Article: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-israel-election-results-rivlin-finally-has-the-chance-to-take-on-netanyahu-1.9683159

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US returns to declaring Israel settlements as an occupation

Many international actors including the United States have viewed Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza as an occupation of Palestinian territory. While Israel posses sovereignty over the region the Oslo accords were to establish a level of autonomy to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Gaza. Any such Israeli settlements in the region without Palestinian approval are contrary to the agreements established in Oslo. Given the violation of the Oslo agreement many states therefor classified the Israeli settlements in the two regions as an occupation in violation of International Law. Under the Trump administration the US state department reclassified the occupation as Israel, West Bank and Gaza. This action combined with the re-location of the US embassy displayed a relative disinterest to hold Israel accountable for the violation of law. The Biden administration’s state department returned to categorizing settlements as an occupation on Tuesday joining the international communities classification while not removing the embassy at this time. What this categorization may mean is that the US is willing to take a more strict stance on future dealings with Israel ranging from aid to the rights of Arab-Palestinians in the region. 

Link to Article:https://www.timesofisrael.com/state-dept-confirms-us-views-israels-control-over-west-bank-as-occupation/

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China’s growing presence in the Middle East bad for Israel

The tension felt between Israel and Iran is not subtle with a deep history of conflict and continued Iranian support for militia groups inside and around the Israeli state. A new regional player has gradually been making advances in the region with its current focus on Iran. That actor would be China who recently entered into an economic revitalization plan with Iran who in turn will provide a discounted rate on oil to China over the next 25 years. China has gradually attempted to grow its sphere of influence in the Middle East and Europe through its belt road initiative attempting to create a more interconnected geopolitical landscape revolving around trade with states to its West. This move coming on the heels of the disintegrated Iran Nuclear deal which created a framework for negotiations with Iran and the United states. While the China-Iran deal is not a direct threat to Israel and reports say that China would be open to dealing with all regional actors a military component of the agreement in the name of a war on terror is vaguely familiar and also raises some red flags. As the United States decreases its presence in Middle Eastern countries for better or worse the world must remain cognizant of the clear power grabs in the wake of bad blood between the US and many of these countries. It is regional allies like Israel who stand to lose the most from any advances by non-western powers all the while Israel’s political future is uncertain during such pivotal moments.

Link to Article: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-strategic-pact-with-china-gives-iran-room-to-breathe-at-a-critical-moment-1.9662505

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Preliminary Exit Polls

In the Knesset there are 120 seats and an unlimited number of parties while a 3.5% threshold is required to appoint a member of Knesset. While there is no issue with this form of government Israel has locked itself into the coalitional aspect of the Knesset in times of great polarization surrounding among other issues existing party figureheads creating gridlock. This is present now more than ever on the heels of Wednesdays election where parties are split despite similar macro level policy stances in that they are mostly right wing. Despite the political philosophy veering right for the country a central issue resides in Netanyahu who managed to retain a majority of seats for his Likud party even though it is weaker than in the previous election. As the current prime minister attempts to create a stable right wing coalition even with large anti-Netanyahu sentiment, minority parties like the United Arab List could have had a chance to effect meaningful policy change by being a deciding vote for either coalition. Yet this would now be unlikely as the party has splintered into factions mitigating its role in future policy discussions leaving center to far right politicians and parties to quarrel among other issues about Netanyahu's fitness as a policy matter. The clear choice given the similarities among right wing parties would be to appoint another leader of the Likud who could create the strong coalitional government that Netanyahu has promised, the issue being that Netanyahu himself has shown interest in such sentiment making it likely his reign will continue on until the next election which will undoubtedly be before it is scheduled if history is to guide us. 

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Election infrastructure security an international problem

In October of 2020 private voter data of approximately 186 million United States voters was compromised by a hack that originated beyond its borders. Today March 22, 2020, nearly 12.5 million confidential records of Israeli voters were compromised by a hack, this attack exposing names, ID's and polling locations. A key component of the hack which exposed US vulnerabilities was the sale of the information obtained in the hack and even more dangerously the lack of ability to know who then could access such information. While there have not been reports of selling Israeli information obtained at this time there is a theme between both states, that being the repeated nature of such hacks and the vulnerability of election infrastructure. The supposed intention of the hack was to garner the attention of officials based on a proposed corrupt intention and usage of an app "elector" by politicians of the state. The intention of the hack is irrelevant when we think about the impact such attacks may have on voters. It may be suggested that as the number of hacks increases and more voter information is leaked some voters would be less likely to engage in elections and political activities more broadly. I would agree with that assertion especially when vulnerable communities are exposed within a state where political tensions are high. It is my hope however that Israeli voters are not deterred and show up to vote despite the increased exposure they now face.

Link to Article: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-just-before-election-entirety-of-israel-s-voter-data-leaked-online-again-1.9642920

Article 2:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/cybersecurity-firm-finds-hacker-selling-info-148-million-u-s-n1244211

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The rebirth of Syria brings new challenges to Israel

Ten year of conflict, displacement, government turmoil and political tension are the legacy of the contemporary Syria that we know today. While the conflict neighbors the Israeli state we know humanitarian crises involve many actors. For Syria these actors include the US, Russia, Iran, and Israel. As Assad went to war with his people, Isis marched through the region, and global superpowers began proxy conflicts Israel took a hands off approach. The state enabled occasional humanitarian intervention, a mandate for self defense and an interest in preventing Hezbollah's weapon capabilities from expanding, but the Israel state was not intervening or assisting force in the wake of the atrocities across it’s border. As Syria awakes from the aftermath of the past decades conflict Israel must be hyper vigilant of who it has allowed its neighbor to become as Iranian backed militias, Russian forces, and extremists jihadist's found footholds in the absence of Israeli, US, and Western intervention. The threats within Syria have evolved and Israel is posed with confronting the changing geopolitical tide in the Middle East.

Link to Article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/10-years-of-savagery-how-israel-navigated-syrias-demise-and-troubling-rebirth/

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New militia tactics and Israeli response.

Hezbollah is one of Israel’s most regionally significant and constant threats given the militias stronghold in Lebanon. The group is not isolated to Lebanon and while acts of violence and terror have impacted the security of Israelis across the state the greatest threat lies in the militias Iranian backing. Traditionally Israel is viewed figuratively and literally as the “iron dome” of the Middle East, but recent statements from IDF leadership indicate pressing threats to this sustained relative security of the region and state. Major General Ori Gordin of the IDF notes that due to Hezbollah's inability to win battles head to head their tactics have evolved and may soon target towns and cities with 2,000 missiles a day operating from an arsenal of approximately 150,000 missals. Given the backdrop of an election and the emphasis on security combined with the historic inaccuracy and failures of militia missile capabilities the claims should be evaluated skeptically. However, if true Israeli security will need to adapt to the evolving threat to protect it’s entire citizenry. This could potentially create a pathway for more offensive IDF tactics in the region as a response which history tells us would not end well for Arab’s nor Israeli’s.

Link to Article: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/israel-will-be-hit-by-2000-missiles-a-day-in-future-war-idf-general-662042

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Polls show rise of racism in Israel

As we talked in class about stereotypes and stigmas across Israel and the Jewish and Arab communities alike the report highlighted in this article was quite troubling. Given the relative calm across the nation in recent decades one may infer there has been a decrease in racially bias or targeted acts rather than idealistic notions regarding the two state solution and religious turmoil. Yet the government unit charged with tracking race based abuse found three times as many complaints against the state. It may be suggested that Covid exasperated many of the cultural and religious difference, specifically as some ultra orthadox communities see themselves at odds with the government who is infringing on their religious liberties and cultural norms. But the reports are not isolated towards cultural identities included blatant racism. One such incident was an example of a generic criminal offender that, “looks like a man with medium built and dark skin”. While we have noted stereotypical Israli prejudices towards Arab communities I found it interesting that Haredi Ethiopian Jews were at the center of multiple claims. I found this interesting because of the various intersecting identities that this group possesses as minorities on multiple fronts and as the second highest subgroup who filed complaints. Whether the rise in such practices and acts are due to Covid, the election, or are just a reflection of the times Israel must do a better job of using inclusive language and protecting the liberties of all its groups within reason.

Link to Article: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-complaints-of-racism-in-israel-triple-from-2019-to-2020-government-report-shows-1.9608737

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Netanyahu a threat to Israeli liberal democracy?

As the projected coalitions of the Knesset shift daily impacting who may become the next Prime Minister of Israel some have reservation on what another Likud victory would mean for the country. Specifically, the Yesh Atid coalition led by Yair Lapid views the possibility of another Netanyahu term as a segway to an illiberal democracy. It is important to note that the Yesh Atid is a centrist party that finds government accountability and political reform, as well as emphasizing domestic programming as central components to its platform. Given Lapid’s successes as a MK for the Blue and White party his opposition to Gantz and Netanyahu is clear, but he still refuses to engage in political dog fights with his two greatest opponents. While attempts have been made to engage Lapid in such discussions his emphasis on reforming politics due to the threat of Netanyahu is not quiet despite question of his ambition and ability to govern successfully. As investigations of the current PM persist and action in the Kensett is taken to prolong his tenure, Yair Lapid sees the current “opposition” in Gantz’s blue and white party as entirely insufficient and failing to restrain Netanyahu, while Netanyahu has failed on every front, even covid where Lapid thinks much stricter travel guidelines should have been enforced. I think that the emphasis on Gantz is unique given his status in the Knesset following the previous election and Lapid’s role within Gantz’s party while now suggesting great reform as a leader in his own right. If Lapid is able to garner the support of working class Israeli’s the proposed threat of Israel becoming a illiberal democracy would be diminished by institutional reform. The question becomes if Netanyahu is able to hold on another term will Israel be recognized as a liberal democracy? Regardless of the election outcome the global community will have to consider Israel’s status of a democracy and how legitimate Lapid’s claims may be.

Link to article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-my-ambitions-can-wait-if-netanyahu-wins-israel-will-enter-dark-times/