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Ultima Handicap Chase - Trends, Trainer Stats & Hot Prep Races
Key Race Trends for the last 11 years
Official Rating
10/11 winners had an OR of 129-148
Weight
10/11 winners carried a maximum weight of 11-7
Age
Optimum age for winners is 7-8 with 8/11 winners being that age.
Runs that season
10/11 winners had between 2-5 runs that season
Best in three runs
10/11 winners were in the top 3 on one of their last 3 runs
Highest Class Run
10/11 winners had run in at least a Grade 2 race
Last Race Placing
11/11 winners were in the top 6 in their last race
Days since last race
10/11 winners had a run in the last 45 days
Trainers with strong records in the race:
Jonjo O’Neill 3/15 20% +17pts
David Pipe 3/16 18.75% +14pts
Nick Williams 1/3, 3 places +3pts
Hot Prep Races for Winners (last 20 years)
Cleeve Hurdle (2)
Doncaster, Sky Bet Chase (2)
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Arkle - Trends, Prep Races and Trainer Stats
It look’s like a pretty poor standard renewal of the Arkle this year. I’m fully expecting to see some of the long term trends and stats blown apart by an unexposed, improving horse.
In spite of that, let’s take a look at some of them...
Trends (last 11 years)
Official Rating
10/11 winners had a OR of 152 or above (Expected wins 9.03)
Below 152 are 1/68 (Expected wins 3.75)
Age
5yo 0/6 (Expected wins 0.67)
6yo 4/31 (Expected wins 3.88)
7yo 6/49 (Expected wins 6.39)
8yo 1/13 (Expected Wins 0.91)
9yo-12yo 0/8 (Expected wins 0.93)
Odds SP
9/11 winners were <6/1 at SP (Expected wins 8.07)
>6/1 are 2/82 (expected wins 4.71)
Best in Three Runs
10/11 winners were 1st in one of their last 3 runs
11/11 winners were 1st or 2nd in one of their last 3 runs
Runs that season
11/11 winners had 2-5 runs that season
Horses with more 5 runs that season are 0/19 (Expected Wins 0/19)
Last Race Placing
9/11 winners were 1st in their last race
11/11 winners were 1st or 2nd in their last race
Days since last run
11/11 winners had ran within the last 90 days
Trends Qualifiers: Kalashnikov
Trainers
Nicky Henderson 3/11 27% -6.49pts
Willie Mullins 3/11 27% -6.25pts
Henry De Bromhead 1/7, 3 places 14% 0pts
Prep Races giving winners of the Arkle (last 20 years)
Arkle Novice Chase @ Leopardstown (4): Le Richebourg - out injured
Game Spirit Chase @ Newbury (2): Abandoned in 2019
Kingmaker Novice Chase @ Warwick (2019: Sandown) (2): Glen Forsa
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Supreme Novice Hurdle - Trends, Prep Races and Trainers
To start off our series of Cheltenham previews, I’m going to start by focusing on Trends, Prep Races and Trainer stats to give you an angle into Cheltenham Festival week.
We’ll start on Tuesday with the Supreme Novice Hurdle.
Trends (last 11 years)
10/11 winners have been 5 or 6
11/11 winners had between 2-5 runs that season
10/11 winners had been first in one of their last 3 runs
10/10 winners were rated 139 or above
9/10 winners were rated 142 or above
8/11 last winners had ran over 2m1f or further
10/11 last winners were in the top 2 in their last race
11/11 winners had their last run more than 16 days prior to the race. Those who were less than 16 days are 0/11 with 0 places.
Prep Races (last 20 years)
The following races have given us winners of the Supreme Novices’ in the last 20 years:
Deloitte @ Leopardstown (4)
- Klassical Dream
Newbury Novice Hurdle 10/11th Feb (3)
- 2019 not run
Johnstown Novice Hurdle @ Naas (2)
- Chosen Mate
Trainer Stats
Willie Mullins has a record of 3/27, 6 places but is -13.5pts at SP.
Gordon Elliott is 1/4, 2 places. +22pts Win, +11.19pts place.
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January: a month in betting (Tom Wilson)
January was a pretty tough month for me overall, however it’s ended up in a more positive position than it looked like it might after the first half of the month.
In the first 9 days of the month I put up 13 horses based on my Stallion Statistics method and none of them won. In fact, not even a single one of them placed.
At this point my P&L was -26 at my recommended 2pt stakes and I’m getting really worried.
Thankfully, on January 09th I backed both Artair (12/1) and Beleaguerment (4/1) in the 1:55 Lingfield. They went on to finish 1st and 2nd, with Artair, the bigger priced horse of the two winning. I was +22pts on the race and that dragged me back up to -4pts in my P&L.
The next 6 Stallion Stats selections resumed normal service for January. All finishing unplaced. P&L down to -16pts.
Thankfully some green shots started to appear with the strong form for the Trainer Targets. Sue Smith’s Sharp Response (9/4) won the North Yorkshire Grand National really well at Catterick on the 10th January.
I then had the 1-2 in the Dan Moore Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse with Gordon Elliott’s runners Cubomania and Duca De Thaix.
Halfway through the month on 15th January the P&L stands at -9.5pts.
Stallion Stats -16pts
Trainer Targets +6.5pts
The second half of the month is where it started getting really interesting…
On 16th January I had a couple of winners, springing the P&L back into life. Potters Hedge won at Plumpton @ 9/2 and Holy Heart (11/8) won well at Kempton for John Gosden.
Then Yfenni hit me with heartbreak on 18th January.
In a 6f Handicap at Lingfield I backed both Yfenni and Milldean Panther based on statistics for improvement of Dutch Art and Mayson progeny going up in trip to 6f for the first time.
Milldean Panther was backed steadily throughout the day, opening at 9/2 and going off at 7/2. Yfenni wasn’t fancied in the market at all, opening at 20/1 and going off with an ISP of 33/1.
Turning from home it looks like Robert Winston is going to win on Yfenni. In the end he gets beat a neck by Adam Kirby on Lincoln Spirit. Advised bet for Yfenni was 2pts Win @ BFSP. The BFSP was 173.00 !!!! (30.0 the place)
That would have been a 344pt return and the P&L sorted for the entire year. In the end it was -4pts on the race.
Following Yfenni, the P&L started to take a nice upturn for the rest of the month.
Cyrname @ 5.46 on 19th Jan at Ascot Casa Comigo @ 5.9 at Lingfield Ballistic @ 4.4 at Kempton Not Many Left @ 6.39 at Huntington Anapurna @ 7.49 at Lingfield.
The Trainer Targets had a tough time on Cheltenham Trials weekend, losing 6 points and leaving the P&L at only +0.5pts for the month.
I also tipped up 3 antepost selections for Cheltenham Trials weekend, that were well backed throughout the week leaving me feeling I had a strong position for the weekend.
Nelson River tipped at 10/1 went off 8/1. Commodore Barry tipped at 3/1 went off 13/8. Brewinupastorm tipped at 5/1 went off 6/4.
All 3 lost (-6pts), with Brewinupastorm falling at the last fence in the Novice Hurdle trial at Cheltenham. I was convinced that he was going to hold off Birchdale and win, so that was another real sickener to end Trials day on -6pts rather than +6pts. I guess if I keep getting those antepost selections right in the long run the luck will fall in my favour at certain times.
How did the month end up?
2pt Win (Advised) @ BFSP = -4.06pts
2pt Win @ Early Prices 9am = +14.75pts
1pt Win / 1pt Place @ BFSP = +16.87pts
I’m convinced that long term, betting win only is the way for me to do it. Imagine if Yfenni had won with 2pts at BFSP! However, it’s quite striking to see the differences in the times you get on with your selections, the staking plan that you use and how they can influence your overall profitability.
2pt Win @ BFSP Chart
2pt Win @ Early 9am prices
1pt Win / 1pt Place @ BFSP Chart
Lessons Learned from January:
1. Get mentally ready for those losing runs. They’re coming for you and you have to be tough enough to keep going through them
2. Take those morning prices
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From Dublin to Cheltenham: Part 2 Arkle Chase
The Arkle Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Saturday is a strong indicator race for the Arkle at Cheltenham.
Horses that have won the Arkle Novice’s at Leopardstown have then gone on to do well in the Cheltenham Arkle. Record overall for these is 4/8 50% +3.75pts.
2018 Footpad (1st -> 1st)
2017 Some Plan (1st -> 6th)
2016 Douvan (1st -> 1st)
2015 Un De Sceaux (1st -> 1st)
2014 Trifolium (1st -> 3rd)
2011 Realt Dubh (1st -> 3rd)
2010 Sizing Europe (1st -> 1st)
2009 Golden Silver (1st -> 14th)
In terms of winners of the Arkle at Cheltenham, the following races provide the best guides (last 20 years):
Arkle Novice Chase @ Leopardstown [4]
Kingmaker Novices Chase @ Warwick [2]
Game Spirit Chase @ Newbury [2]
In terms of places (top 3) in the Arkle at Cheltenham, the following races provide the best guides (last 20 years):
Kingmaker Novices Chase @ Warwick [10]
Arkle Novices Chase @ Leopardstown [8]
Leopardstown Novice Chase Boxing Day [5]
Wayward Lad Novice Chase @ Kempton [3]
Henry VIII Novice Chase @ Sandown [3]
Game Spirit Chase @ Newbury [3]
The following would take my eye in the market at the moment: Le Richebourg @ 7.6 Dynamite Dollars @ 8.6 Voix Du Reve @ 32
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From Dublin to Cheltenham: Part 1 [Supreme Novice Hurdle]
This is a series of blogs that I will write this week looking at how the Dublin Racing Festival will help shape the picture for the Cheltenham Festival. I’ll be looking at races at Leopardstown over the weekend and outlining how they have typically influenced the races at the festival.
Of all the tracks that give us pointers towards the Cheltenham Festival, Leopardstown arguably has the greatest success. In the period since 2008, if we look at Cheltenham Festival winners and the previous track that they raced at, the Dublin track has a cracking record. Showing a +63.5pts record in the win market to Industry SP (+168.35pts BF) and a +110.27pts record in the Betfair Place market.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
In the last 20 years, the races that have given us the most winners of the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham are:
Deloitte Novice Hurdle @ Leopardstown [4]
Newbury 2m Novices Hurdle in February [3]
Johnstown Novices Hurdle @ Naas end of February [2]
Whoever comes out and wins the Deloitte (now the Chantelle Pharma) at Leopardstown on Sunday will have a significant influence in the Supreme Novices Hurdle market.
In terms of places, the Deloitte also comes out on top with 6, followed by the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury [5], the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown [5], the Tolworth [4], Newbury 2m Novices Hurdle in February [3] and the Leopardstown future Champions Novice Hurdle in December [3].
Looking at horses that have placed in the Top 3 in the Supreme Novices and where they had their previous runs, we can see that the picture is already starting to take shape.
Using the races above as a guide i’d be playing the following horses in the antepost market:
Elixir Du Nutz 13.0 BF Exchange
Aramon 17.0 BF Exchange (and favourite for the Deloitte)
Felix Desjy 26.0 BF Exchange
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Trainer Targets: Saturday 02nd to Sunday 03rd February
Trainer target races for the upcoming weekends’ racing at Lingfield, Sandown and the Dublin Racing Festival over at Leopardstown.
Saturday
Lingfield 1:45 Lingfield Betway Cleves Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) Cl1 (4yo+) 6f TD Barron has a 3/5 60% +20.1pts record in this, winning it in 2014 with Tarooq, 2011 with Waveband and 2010 with Jaconet. Karl Burke has a 2/3 66% +11pts record in this, winning it in 2015 and 2016 with Rivellino.
2:55 Lingfield Betway Winter Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2f
Marco Botti has a great record in this 5/9 55% +7.65pts. Winning it in 2016 and 2015 with Grendisar, 2013 with Planteur, 2010 with Gitano Hernando, 2009 with Re Barolo.
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Sandown 1:15 Sandown 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 1m7½f
Venetia Williams is 3/9 33% +1.25pts here. Winning this in 2016 with Arthurs Oak, 2015 with Brick Red and 2009 with Lorient Express.
Kerry Lee is 2/3 66% +6.5pts here. Winning this in 2018 with Gino Trail and 2017 with Grey Gold.
1:50 Sandown 888Sport Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m
Nicky Henderson is 4/7 57% -2.45pts. No bet.
Paul Nicholls is 2/3 66% +7pts. Winning this in 2016 with Connetable and 2009 with Celestial Halo.
2:25 Sandown 888Sport Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f
Nicky absolutely farms this race. Since 2010 he’s won it with; 2018 Terrefort, 2017 Top Notch, 2014 Oscar Whisky, 2013 Captain Conan, 2010 Punchestowns.
His record is 5/8 62.5% +2.66pts.
3:00 Sandown 888Sport Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m7½f
Paul Nicholls has a 2/7 28.57% +10.5pts record here. Winning it in 2018 with Topofthegame and 2010 with Beshabar.
Philip Hobbs has a 2/5 40% +7.5pts record, winning it in 2016 with Saddlers Encore and 2011 with Kilcrea Kim.
3:35 Sandown 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m
Lucy Wadham is 2/3, winning this in 2016 and 2015 with La Reve. 2/2 66% +8pts.
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Saturday
Leopardstown 3:10 Leopardstown Irish Champion Hurdle Grade 1 2m
Willie Mullins is 6/17 35% -7.62pts. The negative P&L shows that he is over bet in the market for this race. No bet.
Sunday
1:15 Leopardstown Spring Juvenile Hurdle Grade 1 2m
Willie Mullins is 3/16 18.75% +10pts. Winning it in 2018 with Mr Adjudicator, 2016 with Footpad, 2015 with Petite Parisienne.
In the place market Willie is 9/16 +2.47pts, so you could also look there.
Two trainers with decent records, but that I won’t be focusing on:
Dermot Weld is 2/2 100% +10pts, winning it in 2012 with Hisaabaat and 2011 with Unaccompanied.
DT Hughes is 2/3 66% +6.83pts, winning this in 2014 with Guitar Pete and 2013 with Our Conor.
1:50 Leopardstown Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle Grade 1 2m (I THINK THEY MEAN THE DELOITTE!!)
Willie Mullins is 5/25 20% +11.25pts in this, winning it in 2017 with Bacardys, 2016 with Bleu Et Rouge, 2015 with Nichols Canyon, 2014 Vautour, 2013 Champagne Fever.
Since 2013 if you back all Willie’s runners in this blind, you’d show a profit every year apart from 2018.
Of the winners 3/5 had their last run at Leopardstown. He shows a 3/16 18.75% +14.5pts record with these. That would lead me to focus on Aramon, Klassical Dream and Sancta Simona in the antepost market at the moment. 3:00 Flogas Novice Chase Grade 1 2m5f Willie Mullins is 6/23 26% +3.36pts, winning this in 2016 with Outlander, 2014 with Ballycasey, 2013 with Boston Bob, 2010 Citizen Vic, 2009 Cooldine, 2008 Jy Vole. Noel Meade is 2/6 33% +6.5pts, winning this in 2017 with Disko and 2015 with Apache Stronghold. 4:10 Leopardstown 2m5f Abbey International Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5yo+) Ted Walsh has a 2/5 40% +10pts record in this, winning the race in 2015 with Foxrock, 2012 with Seabass. He currently has Any Second Now entered.
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Trainer Targets: Monday 21st January to Sunday 27th January
Wednesday 23rd January
2:30 Catterick 2m3½f (2m3f66y) racingtv.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130)
Sue Smith has a good place record in this race. She’s 0/6 in the win market, but 3/6 in the place market +11.41pts.
Placed horses were; 2009 – Flake, 2010 – The Gloves are Off, 2014 – Hit The Top.
She currently has Blotos entered here. If that one runs it will be a selection in the place market.
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Saturday
12:40 Cheltenham JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Finesse)
Nicky Henderson has a 4/8 50% +24.08pts record in this race.
He won it in 2018 with Apples Shakira, 2016 with Protek Des Flos, 2015 with Peace and Co and 2013 with Rolling Star.
Apples Shakira went straight from this race to the Triumph Hurdle, went off the 6/5f but only finished 4th.
Protek Des Flos didn’t go to Cheltenham in 2016. In 2015 Peace and Co went straight to the Triumph and won, beating Top Notch by a neck. Rolling Star in 2013 went straight to the Triumph after winning this, went off the 5/2f and finished 8th.
If Nicky sends one or a couple here I’ll back them and then also for the Triumph Hurdle. Updates coming later in the week.
1:15 Cheltenham Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4½f
Colin Tizzard is 2/6 33% +13pts in this race. He won it in 2010 with Hey Big Spender and 2017 with Royal Vacation.
In 2018 he sent Sizing Tennessee here, finishing 3/7. Sizing Tennessee then went on to run in the National Hunt Cup (4 miler), placing there. In 2017 Royal Vacation won this and went to the RSA, pulling up.
If Tizzard has a runner in this then it will be a selection.
3:00 Cheltenham Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered as the Classic Novices' Hurdle Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f
Alan King has a 3/7 +26pts record in this race, with 5 places +9.69pts. He won it in 2016 with Yanworth, 2015 with Ordo Ab Chao, 2014 with Batonnier.
Looking at past winners with an eye on Cheltenham:
2018: Santini – went on to finish 3rd in the Albert Bartlett. 2017: Wholestone – went on to finish 3rd in the Albert Bartlett. 2016: Yanworth – went on to finish 2nd in the Neptune / Ballymore. 2015: Ordo Ab Chao – went on to finish 7th in the Neptune/ Ballymore. Went off 10/1. 2014: Red Sherlock – went on to 9th in the Neptune. Went off 7/2. 2013: At Fishers Cross – went on to win the Albert Bartlett, going off 11/8f.
3:35 Cheltenham galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m
Paul Nicholls has a 3/12 record in this, but -2.25pts to SP. No bet.
Nick Williams has a 2/5 40% +7.88pts record, with 3 places +1.53pts. He won it in 2018 with Agrapart and 2013 with Reve de Sivola. If he has any entered then they will be a selection.
Looking at past winners and how they did at Cheltenham:
2018: Agrapart – didn’t run. 2017: Unowhatimeanharry – went on to finish 3rd in the Stayers Hurdle / World Hurdle. Sent off 5/6f. 2016: Thistlecrack – went on to win the World Hurdle, sent off Evens fav. 2015: Saphir Du Rheu – went on to finish 2nd in the World Hurdle, sent off 5/1f. 2014: Knockara Beau, went on to run in the Gold Cup finishing 7th. 2013: Reve De Sivola – went on to finish 4th in the World Hurdle, sent off 4/1.
4:10 Cheltenham Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m1f
Chris Gordon has a 2/3 66% +22.5pts record here. Winning it in 2018 with Remiluc and 2015 with Lightentertainment. If he has an entry then it will be a selection.
1:30 Doncaster Napoleons Casino & Restaurant Owlerton Sheffield Lightning Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m½f
Nicky Henderson is 2/3 +2.5pts in this race. He won it in 2016 with Vaniteux and 2012 with Kid Cassidy.
Alan King is 2/3 +1.38pts. He won it in 2018 with Sceau Royal and 2014 with Valdez.
If either trainer has an entry then they be a selection. I’ll update later in the week.
2:05 Doncaster Albert Bartlett River Don Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m½f
Malcolm Jefferson has a 2/2 100% +8.75pts record in this. It will be interesting to see if his wife Ruth follows the same target approach. He won it in 2014 with Urban Hymn & 2009 with Cape Tribulation.
Nicky Henderson has a 2/3 +7.5pts record in the race. He won it in 2017 with Constantine Bay & 2015 with Caracchi Apache.
2:40 Doncaster olbg.com Yorkshire Rose Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f
Willie Mullins is 2/4 50% -1.63pts at SP in this race. He has used it three times before as a prep for Cheltenham; for Vroom Vroom Mag in 2017 in the Mares, for Anafilet in 2015 for the County & for Annie Power in 2014 for the World Hurdle / Stayers.
There might be a bet in here in Antepost or Early markets, but nothing at SP.
3:05 Lingfield Betway Live Casino Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f
Charlie Appleby is 2/2 +2.5pts in this. He won it in 2018 with Celestial Spheres and 2015 with Gold Trail.
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Trainer Targets: Monday 14th January - Sunday 20th January 2019
After a successful week for this blog last week with winners Sharp Resonse and Duca De Thaix, this week looks a bit quieter.
I was only able to find any specific target races for the meetings at Ascot and Haydock on Saturday 19th January.
Saturday
12:40 Ascot Rosling King Juvenile Hurdle (Novices' Championship Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl3 (4yo) 1m7½f
Alan King has won this the last 2 years. In 2018 with Niyati, in 2017 in Gibralfaro. He also won it in 2012 with Balder Success. In last 10 years 3/5 60% -0.18pts (all short price favs).
Nicky Henderson also has a great record. In last 10 years he’s 3/3 100% +0.94pts. Won in 2015 with Top Notch, 2011 with Grandouet and 2009 with Zaynar.
1:50 Ascot OLBG.com Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Warfield) (Nhmops Bonus Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m7½f
Harry Fry is 2/3 66% +6.5pts. He won in 2015 with Bitofapuzzle and 2014 with Highland Retreat. A Noel Fehily jockey booking would be a positive indicator as he was on both of these.
Willie Mullins sent Vroom Vroom Mag over here to win in 2016. She’s the only runner he’s had in this race. If he sends one over I’ll take note.
2:25 Saturday Matchbook Holloway's Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m3½f
Paul Nicholls is 2/8 25%, +11.5pts and 5 places. He won it in 2015 with Rebel Rebellion and 2014 with Bury
3:35 Ascot Clarence House Chase Grade 1
Paul Nicholls is 4/12 in this 33.33% -2.3pts.
He won it in 2015 with Dodging Bullets, 2011 with Master Minded, 2010 with Twist Magic, 2009 with Master Minded.
Willie Mullins is 3/4 in this and has won it for the last 3 years with Un De Sceaux.
1:30 Haydock Patrick Coyne Memorial Altcar Novices' Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f
Donald McCain Jnr is 3/3 100% +4.78pts in this race. He won it in 2018 with Testify, 2012 with Our Mick and 2009 with Will Be Done.
2:05 Haydock Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m7½f
Donald McCain Jnr is 2/4 50% 0pts in this race. He won it in 2012 with Cinders and Ashes and 2011 with Peddlers Cross.
Venetia Williams is 2/2 100% +5pts in this race. She won it in 2015 with Aso and 2014 with Zamdy Man.
--- Total 2019 Trainer Targets Blog record:
2/2 100% +6.5pts to advised prices.
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Trainer Targets: Thursday 10th January - Sunday 13th January
Welcome back everyone, I’m exciting to get started with the Trainer Target blogs again for 2019!
In these blogs I highlight specific races that certain trainers like to target in their race planning and traditionally do well in.
All statistics are from 2010 onwards.
Thursday 10th January
2:45 Catterick 3m6f (3m5f214y) Watt Fences North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap Chase
Sue Smith is 3/7 in this in the last 10 years with 3 places. She has won it for the last 3 years.
Currently she only has Sharp Response entered. If this horse runs then it will be a selection.
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Friday 11th January
2:30 Huntington 2m (1m7f171y) Weatherbys Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo)
Nicky Henderson is 2/3 in this race.
2/3 66.67% +1.28pts
He won it in 2017 with Divin Bere and 2011 with A Media Luz. Style De Garde was an unplaced 10/11f in 2018.
He currently has Fusil Raffles entered. If this horse runs then it will be a selection
3:00 Huntington 2m4f (2m3f189y) Weatherbys Racing Bank Chase (A Novices' Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (5yo+)
Nicky Henderson is 2/2 in this race and has won it for the last two years.
2/2 100% +2.33pts
He won it in 2018 with Terrefort and 2017 with O O Seven.
After Nicky sent those horses to win this race at Huntington he sent O O Seven to the RSA (5th) and Terrefort to the JLT (2nd).
He currently has Kupatana entered here. If this horse runs then it will be a selection.
*TRAINER MULTIPLE: HUNTINGTON FRIDAY*
Nicky Henderson has an incredible record at this Huntington Friday meeting.
In 2018 he had a treble (The Vocalist, Terrefort, Turtle Wars)
In 2017 he had a treble (O O Seven, Divin Bere, Burbank)
In 2016 he had one winner (Buveur Dair)
In 2015 he had a double (Hel Tara, Maestro Royal)
In 2013 he had a treble.
In 2012 he had one winner.
In 2011 he had a treble.
I'll be having an accumulator on Nicky's runners here on Friday. I won’t record this on the P&L as all multiples are for a bit of fun rather than serious selections.
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Saturday 12th January
2:40 Kempton 2m5f (Winter) Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Nick Williams has a 3/5 60% +15pts record in this.
He won it in 2015 with Tea for Two, 2012 with Swincombe Flame and 2011 with James De Vassy.
His wife, Mrs Jane Williams, currently has Erick Le Rouge entered. If this horse runs then it will be a selection.
*TRAINER MULTIPLE: KEMPTON SATURDAY*
Nicky has a great record with multiple winners at this Kempton Saturday meeting also.
In 2018 he had a treble (Jenkins, William Henry, Chef Des Obeaux)
In 2017 he had one winner.
In 2016 he had one winner.
In 2014 he had a double.
In 2013 he had a double.
In 2011 he had a FIVE TIMER!!!
I’ll be having a multiple here, but won’t be recorded on P&L.
1:15 Warwick 2m (2m54y) racingtv.com Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-135)
Alex Hales is 2/2 100% +7.5pts in this race. He won it in 2016 and 2018 with Big Jim.
He has Huntsman Son entered here. If this horse runs then it will be a selection.
3:35 Warwick 3m1f Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) (Class 2) (5yo+)
Jonjo O'Neill is 2/8 25% +8.5pts in this race.
He currently has Django Django entered. If this horse runs then it will be a selection.
2:10 Fairyhouse 2m1f BetVictor Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) (4yo+)
Gordon Elliot is 2/8 25% +3.5pts in this race. He's won it the last two years with Doctor Phoenix and Ball D'Arc.
He currently has far too many runners entered. If there are a sensible amount on the day then they may be a selection.
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Boxing Day - Kempton
12:50 2m (Winter) 32Red Casino Novices' Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+)
Didtheyleaveyououtto Comes into this race looking for a hat trick. Form of last race 23rd November doesn't look strong 0/4, 0 places. 3rd, 4th and 5th have all come out and not placed. Previous race (31st Oct) form also isn't great, of the other 10 runs of the race 2/11 including the follow up race this one won. I’ll oppose this one. The Big Bite Absolutely hacked up LTO at Haydock by 19L. Out of Scorpion, the same sire as Might Bite. So could be a bit quirky. Could be an absolute weapon. Mister Fisher Form from run on 08th November is not strong; 0/21 with 7 places. Out of Jeremy, who is sire of Jers Girl, Whisky Sour, Our Connor. Winning Graded horses but not top top level. Thomas Darby HD 2nd to Didtheyleaveuoutto at Ascot 23 Nov. Form from that race isnt great 0/5. Form of Thomas Darby's Maiden win at Cheltenham in October has worked out pretty well. Elixir Du Nutz was 2nd and has won twice since. There were also a couple of winners in behind in Amoola Gold, Seven De Baune and Falcon Sun. Rouge Vif Last seen smashing a Maiden Hurdle at Southwell on 4th Dec. The 2nd that day Oakley has since come out and won a Class 4. Out of Sageburg. I'm not seen anything top end in the breeding compared to some of the other sires here.
Fly To Mars Not seen enough to say this one will be competitive.
Selection: The Big Bite 2pt Win @ 11/4
1:20 2m4½f (2m4f110y) 32Red.com Chase (A Novices' Limited Handicap) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-140)
Glen Forsa Won first spin over fences at Chepstow. Steps up from Class 3 to Class 4
Lough Derg Spirit Won fto over fences. Form is poor 0/5 Hurdles form isn’t anything special Out of Westerner who is the sire of Rockys Treasure and Total Recall.
Dell Oro 2nd in a 3 runner Beginners Chase LTO. Hurdles form looks garbage. 2nd in April at Kempton, 0/21 3 places. Race before when 3rd at Cheltenham 3/28
Warthog Out of Martaline, sire of Disko, Terrefort, Dynaste. Won nicely LTO at Sandown, eased down. Chance.
Awake at Midnight Form out of 7 Nov Chepstow win is poor; 1/19
Vivas Won LTO off 130 and goes up to 137. 1/10 going right handed and Kempton is right handed. Would require a career best.
Selection: Warthog 10/1 EW
1:55 3m 32Red Kauto Star Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Santini Was really impressive at Newbury. Form has been franked since with Rockys Treasure coming out and winning nicely and Le Breuil placing. Short price but can’t really see any reason to oppose him.
Topofthegame Good hurdles form from last season, Grade 3 winner. Out of Flemensfirth and will improve for the step up to 3’. Probably not got the class to go with Santini
Bags Groove Won last 3 races. But if you remove Bags Groove from those races they’ve had a cumulative 17 runners with only 1 winner. Steps up to 3m for the first time. Out of a sire called Oscar and the breeding would suggest the step up in Trip will be fine. Dam Golden Moment, 9 runners above Class 2 1 winner in a Grade 2. This is Grade 1.
The Worlds End Absolutely battered the field LTO in a Novice Chase at Cheltenham. Field wasn’t too bad, in 2nd was Ibis Du Rheu 7/14 going left handed but 0/1 right handed. Why have they not sent him right handed?? Kempton is right handed.
Selection: Santini 6/4
2:30 2m (Winter) Unibet Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Verdana Blue Not sure this is a Grade 1 horse If The Cap Fits Won nicely LTO at Ascot. Not sure how well the form stacks up; last run at Ascot is 0/3, 0 places. Run prior at Wincanton is 2/10, 4 places.
Global Citizen Won LTO but looks rightly rated at 150. Lots to find on official ratings with others.
I won’t be betting in this race as I think Buveur D’Air wins.
3:05 3m 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
The market normally gets this right, every winner in the last 15 years has been priced at 9/2 or less. Apart from Thistlecrack in his Novice Campaign, all the winners have been rated above 162. That kicks out Clan Des Obeaux, Coneygree, Double Shuffle, Shattered Love, Tea for Two Out of 15 runners in the last 10 years, only one horse has won it aged 10 or above and that horse is Kauto Star.
Might Bite 2/3 at Kempton 2/3 over 3m 1/2 over Course and Distance Waiting Patiently Steps up to 3m for the first time. Being out of Flemensfirth that will be no problem and should bring out further improvement. Lack of a prep run a concern.
Politologue Won LTO at Ascot. Charbel has since come out and won. Gold Present was disappointing at Ascot and Benetar was placed. 2/2 at Kempton STEPS UP FOR THE FIRST TIME TO 3m Out of Poliglote. The highest rated horse that the sire has had up to 2m5f is Politologue @ 168, then Top Notch who has been rated up to 164. Going beyond 2m7f the highest rated horse the sire has had was rated 167, that horse was DON POLI Step up in trip should be no problem.
Selection: Might Bite 1pt @ 7/2, Politologue 1pt @ 11/2
3:40 2m5f (Winter) 32Red Download The App Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-140)
Divin Bere Runs off 137. Mark is definitely workable; wins off 137, 2nd 1L off 145. 2nd nk 139. 2/3 on Flat Tracks. Good fit for Kempton. Steps up to 2m5f for the first time. Out of Della Francesca, there are winners 2m5f and over in the progeny so shouldn't be a problem.
Selection: Divin Bere 1pt EW @ 8/1
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Improvement from Two Year Old to Three Year Old
For the latest blog, I wanted to take a look at improvement in Flat horses moving from 2 year old to 3 year old.
To benchmark this I used Sire Progeny statistics for horses with an official rating. Comparing the difference between their OR for the first run as a 3 year old, which is based on their rating for their last run as a 2 year old. Then subsequently their rating on their 2nd run as a 3 year old, based on their performance on their first race out that season.
This shows us how many lbs improvement the horse had between their last two year old run and their first three year old run.
Here’s how they turned out:
Frankel and Lemon Drop Kid really interest me, as we’re seeing nearly 3lbs improvement on average across all their progeny from their last race as a 2yo and their first race as a 3yo.
As Frankel is the higher profile Sire, i’ll start there and focus on Lemon Drop Kid on a later blog.
Frankel
I then started taking a look at the average Official Ratings of Frankel’s progeny over different distances. 5f had too few runners to be worth looking at.
What we’re seeing there is a 5lb improvement on average just for the step up from 1m to 1m2f.
Some horses that can be really interesting when moving into their 3yo campaign next year are:
CAP FRANCAIS
2/3 in 2yo campaign. This Ed Walker horse can continue with positive progression next term.
CASANOVA
4th on debut at Wolverhampton on 24th November over 1m1f. This one is with John Gosden.
CHARTERED
0/2 as a 2yo, but looked to improve for the step up to a mile from 7f LTO. Can improve again when going up to 1m2f.
DOMBRA
0/7 in 2yo campaign. Originally awarded a OR of 80 and now down to 75. That’s got to be workable, especially when stepping up in trip.
ELIZABETH WAY
This is a horse that Godolphin have with Mick Halford. The owner/ trainer combination in itself is really interesting for me.
Was 4th on debut at Naas over 1m.
FRANKELLINA
Won on debut at Yarmouth.
FUME
This horse is 0/6 and currently rated 75. Has stayed on in last couple of runs and there can be improvement in there when going up in trip.
JADEERAH
0/2 over 7f and runs like a horse that will improve over further.
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Trainer Targets: Qualifiers 01/12/18
Qualifiers for the Trainer Targets on Saturday 01st December. Newbury 12:45 Kilbricken Storm (Colin Tizzard) 11/4 Doncaster 12:00 Boomarang (Emma Lavelle) 5/1 12:00 Prophets Prayer (Emma Lavelle) 9/1 12:35 Freedom Run (Emma Lavelle) 9/2 13:10 Shiroccan Roll (Emma Lavelle) 9/4 13:45 Boreham Bill (Emma Lavelle) 8/1 14:15 The Sweeney (Emma Lavelle) 13/2 14:15 Sunnytahliateigan (Ian Williams) 10/3 14:50 Attention Please (Rose Dobbin) 9/2 15:25 Egypt Mill Duke (Ian Williams) 7/1 Newcastle 11:50 Style De Vole (Nicky Henderson) 4/11 12:25 Just Georgie (Sue Smith) 6/1 13:00 Informateur (Sue Smith) 11/2 14:05 Buveur D'Air (Nicky Henderson) 11/8 14:05 Vision Des Flos (Colin Tizzard) 33/1 14:40 Oscar Wilde (Sue Smith) 20/1 14:40 Champagne Platinum (Nicky Henderson) 4/9 14:40 Lough Derg Diamond (Colin Tizzard) 10/1 15:20 Sharp Response (Sue Smith) 10/1
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Podcast Notes - Friday 30th November
We had some technical issues with recording the podcast tonight. We’re going to try again tomorrow, but rather than waste all the preparation i thought i’d share my notes on the blog. Tom Newbury 30th November
12:10 2m½f (2m69y) Ladbrokes "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+)
There are two that I like here:
1. Bang On Frankie 3/1
Bang on Frankie brings in some red hot Maiden Hurdle form from Cheltenham in October. The run at Cheltenham on 26th October has some really solid form coming out of it.
Bang on Frankie was 3rd that day a nose behind Elixir De Nutz. Elixir De Nutz is now rated 138 and is planned to go up a further 8lbs.
2. Strong Glance 3/1
Strong Glance ran at the same meeting at Cheltenham, just a day later.
If the horse takes to hurdles I think it also has a chance. Check out the form.
Betameche returns after a 2 1/2 year break and is very interesting. Last time we saw this horse it beat Sam Spinner by 4 1/2 L in a NHF race at Wetherby.
3:00 Newbury 3m (3m52y) Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Two horses that I liked here:
1. The Mighty Don 40/1
Won a hot Pertemps Handicap Qualifer at Cheltenham on the 27th October. Horses in behind that day were; Theclockisticking 138 -> 138, Aaron Lad 124 -> 138 + 9 [147], Red Infantry 129 -> 129 won the other day at Haydock from the front.
The form looks pretty solid:
2. Momella 6/1
A lot of shrewd people on Twitter seem to fancy this horse.
Lightly raced, unexposed. Was beaten 3.5L last time out at Aintree behind Black Op and Lost In Translation. There could definitely be more to come from this horse.
3:35 Newbury 3m (3m52y) Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
Vive Le Roi 10/1 could still be well handicapped. Was 2nd, a shoulder behind First Assignment who bolted up at Cheltenham on 17th November. Has gone up 4lbs for that but I think there could still be a bit of give in that mark.
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Trainer Targets - Friday 30th Nov to Sunday 02nd Dec
After running the trainer targets for a couple of months I’ve learned that it can be more beneficial to look at a trainer that targets a certain meeting rather than a specific individual race. I’ll mainly be focusing the trainer targets on this level from now on.
The Trainer Targets have been more successful than the Trends on the Blog, they are currently +46.03pts on the blog if backing blind to SP and are +6.93pts to SP in November.
Blog Overall = +71.03pts Blog November = -6.81pts (Trends are -13.75pts)
Friday
12:10 Newbury 2m½f (2m69y) Ladbrokes "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+)
Nicky Henderson has won this for the past 3 years. Overall he is 4/9 44.44% +5.54pts in the race.
In 2016 with Jenkins, 2015 with Buveur Dair and 2014 with Different Gravy.
Buveur Dair went and came 3rd in the Supreme that year. Might be worth backing Nicky's if it looks like winning towards the end of the race in the Supreme.
Entered; I Cant Explain, Morning Vicar.
Saturday
12:45 Newbury 2m7½f (2m7f86y) Ladbrokes John Francome Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Colin Tizzard is 2/2 100% in this race +5.13pts
He won it in 2017 in Elegant Escape and 2016 with Thistlecrack.
Elegant Escape went on to come 3rd in the RSA.
Thistlecrack went on to win the King George but miss Cheltenham.
Entered; Kilbricken Storm.
Doncaster General Trainers to Follow (Saturday Late Nov / Early Dec Meet)
Rose Dobbin 2/3 66.67% +6.75pts (see below)
Miss Emma Lavelle 2/6 33.33% +2.25pts
Ian Williams 2/4 50% +13pts
2:50 Doncaster 3m2f (3m2f1y) Hague Print Management Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-100)
Rose Dobbin won this in 2017 with Attention Please and in 2016 with Mister Don.
Overall at this Doncaster Saturday meeting she's 2/3 66.67% +6.75pts.
Entered; Attention Please
Newcastle General Trainers to Follow (Saturday Late Nov / Early Dec Meet)
Sue Smith 8/30 26.67% +27.88pts
Nicky Henderson 6/8 75% +3.85pts
Colin Tizzard 5/9 55.56% +31.5pts
Paul Nicholls 3/9 33.33% +2.88pts
Donald McCain Jnr 3/7 42.86% +6.75pts
2:40 Newcastle 2m½f (2m98y) Ryder Architecture EBF "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle (Qualifier) (Class 4) (4-6yo)
Nicky Henderson won this in 2013 with Full Shift and 2011 with Malt Master.
Entered; Champagne Platinum
Bangor (General Trainers to Follow at this meet)
Donald McCain Jnr 10/37 27.03% +40.23pts
Nigel Twiston-Davies 3/4 75% 7.23pts
Cheltenham Pointers
Valseur Lido (Mullins) won the Novices Chase on the Fairyhouse Card on Sunday. Then was 3rd in the JLT at Cheltenham later that season.
Entered; Cadmium
Nicholls Canyon (Mullins) won the Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday in 2014 before going to Cheltenham and coming 3rd in the Neptune / Ballymore.
Don Cossack (G Elliott) won the Novice Chase here for Gordon in 2013, before going on to run in the RSA later that season and falling.
Entered; Blow by Blow, Cubomania, Delta Work, Duca De Thaix, Hardline.
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Assessing Jockey Impact
After all the talk about “value” on Twitter over the weekend, I wanted to do a piece that would look into the concept of market value and show where you can try and find an edge. Over the weekend, James Willoughby also did a nice piece on Luck on Sunday, looking at Wins above Expectation split by NH Jockey. Here are my views and calculations on the same subject. I’ve already shared that statistics over the weekend that the Betfair Exchange SP market is incredibly accurate at pricing a horses’ chance of winning a race. Over a sample of 41,000 horses I found that it was accurate with a 0.00275% variance. When assessing the skills of jockeys, now let’s look at their actual win ratio vs. what the Betfair Exchange market expected of them. That can give us insight into their skillset vs beating the expectations of the market. I took a look at all National Hunt races since the start of 2013.
Taking a look at all jockeys with over 50 wins in total gives us a starting point. Below are the figures for the Impact Value of the Jockey vs. Market Expectations. The calculation is “BF SP Expected Wins” vs. “Actual Achieved Wins”.
Mark Griffiths leads the way and definitely looks to be a jockey to keep on side. Of the higher profile riders, Robbie Power and Rachel Blackmore still seem to be riding above market expectations. James’ favourite jockey Bryony Frost even sneaks in to the Top 20.
High Profile Jockey Performance
Now let’s look at how it works out for the high profile jockeys:
As before, i’d be keeping Robbie Power & Rachel Blackmore on side. Through into the mix Sean Bowen, Jamie Codd, Nico De Boinville, Gavin Sheehan, JJ Slevin and Adrian Heskin. The shocks down the bottom are probably Bryan Cooper and Davy Russell. The stats don’t mean that they are the poorest riders in there, just that they underperform with their horses against the expectations of the market. One final angle from me is looking at jockeys’ that are riding with a claim but riding beyond market expecations. These can provide you with some good market value.
Why Claimers can provide you with value
Looking at Jockeys’ who have ridden with a claim in 2017 and 2018 gives the findings below. (I filtered for Jockeys with over 10 wins)
I’d definitely keep an eye on L Quinlan (currently 7lb claim), Maxime Tissier (5lb claim), RP Treacy (3lb Claim), Miss R Smith (3lb claim) and DJ Hand (7lb claim).
Of the more high profile claimers let me show how they got on:
Now you can’t back any selections blindly when using the data shown above. However, i hope that it helps with your selection process when looking at a jockey booking for a horse that you potentially fancy.
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Pace 19/11/18 19:00 Kempton
Position at the first turn
Real Estate Runs off 73 Has been 2L 2nd off 74. Has never run at this track **
Apex King Runs off 80. Last time at course and distance was <1L 2nd off 81. Drops 1lb.
The Lamplighter 71 looks slightly too high. Seems to find one or two better at the 69-71 OR range. **
Air of York Runs off 67 with a claimer taking off 3 [64] 2L 2nd LTO over course and distance off the same mark. Has won off mark and above in the past. Chance. ***
Mayyasah Runs off 82. Seems too high to me, needs to drop down to 78/ 79
The British Lion Runs off 73. 3L 4/4 here earlier in the year off 79. Won at Newcastle off 73 in the past. Chance ***
Stoneyford Lane Runs off 71. Has won off 77 and 74 in the past. 0/6 when running beyond 5f. Discounted.
Waqqas Runs off 76. Not for me.
Black Isle Boy Runs off 80. Has won off 84 and 82 in the past. 0/3 on standard. I'll avoid this one.
Position at the turn for home
Position at the Finishing Post
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