#you know the deposits were to bolster their year-end profit margin

[laf-outloud]

I've been thinking about Creation and the SPN cruise since finding out CE has close to 400 deposits (really?) and that they're now soliciting destination ideas.

Here's how I think things will turn out in the coming year (adding below the cut for pure speculation):

Once CE determines the destination and a few other details, they'll send out an announcement. This will include the destination, the dates of the cruise, as well as the upcoming dates when people with deposits can select their berths.

A week before the berth selection, CE encourages those with deposits to book their cabins within the 10 day window because interest is high and they won't be able to guarantee availability after that time. No guest announcements will be included.

This announcement works to create the idea of scarcity, thus compelling those with deposits to continue with the booking rather than asking for a refund, even though there are no guests confirmed at that time.

A little while after the 10-day booking period, CE will announce some of their standard guests... Rob Benedict and Louden Swain, DJ Qualls, etc.

They'll also open up the bookings to additional fans, much like they do Silver and Copper packages, where, lo and behold, they have plenty of berths available. (Still no word on J2M.)

A few months before departure, other guest announcements are made, including a headliner, Misha (still no J2).

2 months before departure (and well after people have booked flights, and other necessities), Creation announces that J2 will not be guests on the cruise. It's too late for refunds, and people who no longer want to attend are stuck with trying to sell and cancel flights.

I'll be curious to see if things play out in any way close to this outline, but based on CE's current business practices, I think they'll string fans along with the possibility of J2 for as long as they can.

I'm fine if other people want to spend their money for this, and I hope they have fun going, but I would also hope that they set their expectations very low and recognize that what they're paying for may be as simple as a 3-day cruise around Baja with just SPN extras.