#while becoming more privy to Braavosi politics and how that connects to her responsibilities/identity as a Stark

[fromtheseventhhell]

Remember George's outline notes that had "joy of giving" and "mercy at the gate" for Arya? Mercy is crossed out and we obviously have that as her sample chapter, so what if Arya's next alias is "Joy"? Over-thinking the significance of that phrase and how it could apply to the rest of her Braavos arc🤔

[empressaryastark]

old meta. 2014? for all 3 people obsessed with in series book Braavos like me.

city in progress

Braavos Post-ADWD

“Braavos was a city made for secrets, a city of fogs and masks and whispers”.

           When it comes to the ASoIaF universe, I find that most fans tend to focus most of their attention on the politics and plotlines that occur specifically in Westeros. Given that Westeros is where the series begins and will likely end, I think that inclination is natural. However, I also think it is imperceptive to ignore the future of Essos and its impact on the series after the contienent became the backdrop for many PoVs after ASoS. The view that Essos politics doesn’t matter and won’t affect the Westerosi plots is not only false, but it will limit readers that wish to make predictions for the outcome of the series. So, in an effort to raise more discussion on my favorite ASoIaF city and Essos by extension, this post is my attempt to explore the possibilities for the city in The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring while also putting my thoughts and totally definitely **slightly** cracky theories about the city into words.

While Braavos did not make a proper debut in the series until Arya arrived in AFFC, the free city has had a presence since AGoT. From Daenerys’ sentimental musings on the lost home of her childhood in her first chapter to Syrio Forel’s account of how he became the first sword of Braavos, the city has lingered in the background of the series, waiting to emerge as a power. Of course, the city always existed as a powerful state in the general ASoIaF universe, but it did not have much visible influence within the politics of Westeros until AFFC and ADWD. There are only a few cities in A Song of Ice and Fire that are given so much life, so much detail, and so much character and world significance within the series. King’s Landing, Meereen, and Braavos are those three. Like Meereen and King’s Landing, Braavos will surely have strong impacts on the rest of the series based on what happens post-ADWD and specifically in TWoW.

The Iron Bank, the Faceless Men, Braavosi Politics, Dragons, and Westeros

                              Braavos is, in many ways, the city that connects Essos and Westeros. Placed along the northern western portion of Essos, Braavos is the closest free city to Westeros. As a result, Braavos does a good deal of trade with Westeros and they possess more political clout with the continent than most other cities in Essos. Commerce between the Iron Throne and the Iron Bank has a long history that goes back to the days of Targaryen rule. Yet, this long relationship has not made the Iron Bank any more forgiving of the Iron Throne’s debt problems since, as the Braavosi say, the Iron Bank will have its due. Cersei refuses to pay up on the crowns debts and rudely sends off the Iron Bank envoy sent to her in AFFC. These decisions are what led to the schism in relations between the Iron Bank and Lannister-Baratheon crown. However, the clash was long coming since even Tyrion turned the bank away when they first came hounding after their money in ACoK. The continued respect and refusal to make payments were catastrophically bad decisions made by those in power in King’s Landing. In contrast to this behavior, The World of Ice and Fire states that Iron Bank envoys are traditionally treated with great respect as almost equals by even kings. Thus, the War of the Five Kings, the legacy of Robert’s massive debts, and Lannister greed and pride ultimately forced the Braavosi banking institution to become an unlikely ally for Stannis Baratheon and the Night’s Watch. The soured relations between the Iron Bank and the Iron Throne is unexpected turn of luck for Stannis Baratheon. Stannis’ hard up kingdom and quest for the Iron Throne suddenly gets bank rolled by the wealthiest, most ruthless group of loan sharks in the world. Of course this contract literally written in Stannis’ blood is a gamble, but it’s one that may work in his favor. As Jon Snow notes, “When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.” By all accounts, the Iron Bank is not only the wealthiest bank in that universe, but it is also the most powerful. With the loss of this powerful ally, the Lannisters have severely weakened their already tenuous hold on the Iron Throne. This choice by the Iron Bank is a calculated strike against the Lannisters, as is their decision to call in every loan in Westeros. More ominously, the Iron Bank is rumored to send assassins, presumably the Faceless Men, after their debtors according to TWoIaF. Of course, that does not necessarily mean that the Iron Bank will employ assassins to kill Tommen or Cersei. So far as the readers know, they have only decided to go with backing Stannis’ claim by funding his war efforts in addition to setting up an economic conflict as the result of their loan ban. Certainly, the loan ban has been effective in the wake of Aegon Targaryen’s arrival. The Iron Throne on the orders of Kevan and Cersei, in fear of the rebellions that may be incited by raising taxes, send Harys Swyft to the city as an envoy to mend relations with the bank and bring money back to the city. Though the outcome of this decision has yet to come, I think “Mercy” hints at future conflict between the Iron Throne’s representative and the Iron Bank. The question that remains is where the Iron Bank will place their bets if Stannis Baratheon is dead as he is reported to be by the end of ADWD. Now, I personally don’t have a definitive opinion on whether Stannis is or isn’t dead. But for the sake of theorizing on the Iron Bank and their political maneuvers in Westeros, I will assume that he is dead or soon to be dead. In those cases, I imagine the bank will take up the causes of Daenerys Targaryen or Aegon Targaryen.

                              However, the Iron Bank is not the only powerful, secretive institution of Braavos. The Faceless Men, rumored partners in crime with the Iron Bank, seem to be an essential part of Braavosi culture. Indeed, the House of Black and White exists openly in Braavos, and all the Braavosi who have been met with “valar morghulis” usually respond immediately with “valar dohaeris.” In Braavos, the slave past of Old Valyria remain a vivid part of the city’s cultural conscious. This cultural inheritance informs their respect and fear of the Faceless Men (FM), an order with their origins in the slave mines of Old Valyria. Even though the order of the FM is a mystery to most of the world outside of Braavos according to The World of Ice and Fire, readers have received portions of their origins and practices from Arya’s PoV. But given Arya’s status as a guest, and eventual acolyte, in the institution, I think it is safe to assume that Arya has not been fully informed of all the order’s inner workings. At least, she seems distant from the proceedings that take place among the full FM in the HoBaW in ADWD. Although she is still low ranking in the FM’s hierarchy, Arya has gathered a good deal of knowledge about the order so far. But I there is far more to learn about the FM in the next novels, specifically the nature of their relationship with the Iron Bank, the Sealord of Braavos, and dragons.

                              One shouldn’t forget general politics apart from the Iron Bank when taking the city into consideration. So far, the series has yet to produce a Braavosi politician that is actually active in the story. This makes sense considering the fact that Arya has been our eyes in Braavos. Seeing as she’s only assumed the identities of young girls low on the social hierarchy of Braavos, Arya has yet to see many prestigious parts of that city including both the Iron Bank and the Sealord’s Palace. Despite those limitations, Arya has been privy to some of Braavos’ politics. During her time as Cat of the Canals and Blind Beth, Arya was asked to return to the House of Black and White with the demand that she tell the Kindly Man three things she learned. Though some of what she learned was seemingly inconsequential, there are some standout details about the political climate of the city. One example can be found in ADWD when Arya tells the Kindly Man that the current Sealord of Braavos, Ferrago Antaryon, is ill to the point of death and his expected successor is Tormo Fregar. The Kindly Man responds by telling Arya that her piece of news was not new information and a new sealord will be chosen if Antaryon dies. In response, Arya thinks, “When he is dead, there will be a choosing, and the knives will come out. That was the way of it in Braavos. In Westeros, a dead king was followed by his eldest son, but the Braavosi had no kings.” With this plot point, GRRM introduces the prospect of an upcoming election for a new Sealord of Braavos. However, there is little information on how the process takes place. In The World of Ice and Fire, it is stated that the Sealord of Braavos is “chosen by the city’s magisters and keyholders from amongst the citizenry by a process as convoluted as it is arcane.” I have a hunch that the limited information about the sealord election process is an intentional omission on GRRM’s part by using the excuse of mystery. My assumption is only furthered by the fact that GRRM uses this excuse to provide very little information on the Faceless Men in the Braavos section of TWoIaF as well. Although the exact details of the election process are currently shrouded in mystery and complication, it can be understood from Arya’s thoughts that the election of a new sealord is known to bring considerable tension and danger to the city’s political climate. Moreover, the politics of the series are becoming more visible figures in Arya’s PoV. In “Mercy,” there were a total of five keyholders present for the performance of The Bloody Hand. While all that information may seem unimportant in a casual reading, I think that the steady and subtle inclusion of the city’s political developments is intentionally done by GRRM in order bring the politics of Essos and Westeros to a convergence.

                              Post-ASoS, the land of Essos was no longer restricted to Daenerys’ PoV. Tyrion Lannister, Arya Stark, Victarion Greyjoy, Quentyn Martell, Barristan Selmy, Samwell Tarly, and Jon Connington all spend some, if not most of their PoVs chapters in the continent for various reasons that have some effect on the politics of Essos and Westeros.

To briefly (edit: I looked over my list and my eyes determined that this was a lie lol) go over the causes and effects of these eastern excursions, I’ll make a short list since I’m mainly concerned with Braavos in this post.

·         Tyrion’s escape at the end of ASoS leads to Cersei’s rise to power and all the political fiascos that follow. The fact that Varys is forced to hide him on a death threat from Jaime also sends Varys into hiding while shipping Tyrion off to Essos where becomes entangled in the plot to put Daenerys to Aegon Targaryen, the alleged son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell, on the Iron Throne. His involvement is cut short by an ill-timed trip to a brothel where he is abducted by the exiled knight, Jorah Mormont. After many more misfortunes, the two are sold into slavery. With exceptional cunning and good luck, Tyrion and his friends are able to escape the confines of their dead slave master’s camp and land spots in Ben Plumm’s mercenary company, the Second Sons. As of TWoW’s released chapters, Tyrion is attempting to not only survivie the battle of Meereen, but bring forth a victory for Daenerys’ cause. It has been hinted by show and GRRM that Tyrion and Daenerys will join forces in some fashion.

·         By the end of AFFC, Victarion Greyojy is sent by his brother, Euron, on a mission to bring Daenerys from Meereen so she can marry Euron and help him conquer Westeros. Victarion accepts the mission, but he intends to marry Daenerys himself and steal the throne from his brother. This mission is resumed by the end of ADWD where Victarion becomes involved with a red priest named Moqorro. He is involved in the battle of Meereen.

·         Barristan came to Essos storyline before the other Westerosi PoVs aside from Dany. His goal was to get Dany back to her throne in Westeros, but he ultimately has to hold together her crumbling occupation of Meereen in her absence. He’s involved in the battle of Meereen. He makes an agreement with the Tattered Prince to take over Pentos.

·         Quentyn Martell, with a little help from his friends, journeys his way to Daenerys on the orders of his father so that they can fulfill a marriage contract (more on that contract…) and conquer Westeros together. Quentyn fails to convince Dany, tries to steal her dragons, and is burned to death. This death will likely have negative impacts on Dornish/Targaryen relations if Arianne’s feelings in her TWoW sample chapter are any indication.

·         Samwell Tarly made a brief stop in Braavos on his way to the Citadel. During his time there and on the ocean with Maester Aemon, he learns of Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons, the prince that was promised prophecy, and meets Quhuru Mo. Mo takes him to Oldtown, where is able to inform Maester Marwyn about all he’s learned. Maester Marwyn is determined to get to Daenerys before other parts of the Citadel can influence her.

·         Jon Connington, the exiled lord of Griffin’s Roost, spent time with the Golden Company before he was enlisted by Varys and Illyrio to be Aegon’s guardian. He returned to Westeros with Aegon and their host by the end of ADWD. By Arianne’s TWoW chapter, Jon has contacted the Dornish with the intentions of creating an alliance by confirming Aegon as Doran’s nephew.

                              In all of these plotlines, the east and west cross paths in order to create some shift in the politics of the regions whether they intend to or not. Specifically, each storyline is influenced in some way by Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons. Yet, the one major PoV taking place in Essos has not made a firm connection with Daenerys and her dragons. So far, Arya Stark’s PoV and the city of Braavos have been conspicuously absent of any influence from Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons. This is contrast to other major Essos spots like Pentos, Volantis, and Slavery’s Bay. Considering Daenerys’ substantial following and notoriety or widespread esteem depending on who one asks in Essos, it should follow that her reputation would be a special topic in Braavos, the city built on slave rebellion. In fact, Daenerys’ reputation has even reached Westeros as evident by the mummer’s plays in King’s Landing and the word of Dany and her dragons in the Citadel from the prologue. With all those points in mind, I feel like it is suspicious that she’s not a bigger topic in the city of Braavos. Of course, Arya has heard a few mentions of the dragons while in Braavos, but they were brief.

 Here’s where I go into Speculation Mode:

                              I think that the absence of Daenerys’ influence in Braavos is going to be short-lived. Sooner than later, Daenerys will have to go back if she wants to move forward if I may loosely use Quaithe’s words. And if Daenerys should go in a reverse of her journey to move forward to her destiny, that means she will have to arrive at her first home in Essos before she lands on Westerosi land. That home is Braavos. Now, I am aware of theories that Daenerys has confused the location of her childhood home with Willem Darry based on the trees quote in “Mercy.” However, I do not believe that she is confused about her early in Braavos. Yes, the presence of lemon trees in Braavosi is strange, but it’s no stranger than the rest of all that is fantastic in A Song of Ice and Fire. If Sealord’s Palace can support tree life in official maps of the city, I’d wager to say that a wealthy man like Willem Darry could afford a luxury garden. Also, I think the marriage pact made by Oberyn and Willem in Braavos, and witnessed by the Sealord of Braavos, tends to give credence to Dany’s assertion that she and Viserys lived with Darry in Braavos. Now, there is much that is suspicious about the pact. Namely, why would the Sealord of Braavos get involved with a pact between House Martell and House Targaryen after Robert Baratheon took the throne? Did they wish to seek favor with the Targaryens and the Martells? Was this Sealord the current Sealord or a predecessor? Given what little information is supplied about the inner workings of Braavos’ politics, it’s anyone’s guesses on these questions. Indeed, they may remain unanswered if Ferrago Antaryon dies soon as expected and Tormo Fregar takes his office. Once he takes office, an event apparently already anticipated by the common people of Braavos, the most likely turn of events include Fregar taking a stance on Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons. Braavos is a wealthy city known for hard anti-slavery policies in addition to possessing an extraordinarily impressive and powerful naval military. I find it hard to believe that Daenerys and Tyrion (two characters who have expressed desires to see the city) won’t find the city a considerable ally, by choice or force on the city’s part.

                              And what does the future of the city hold for Arya Stark? As I said, there’s far more to learn. Arya’s only ventured around the outskirts of the city, homes to tourists and the poor. Eventually, she will have to break out of her usual haunts and explore the parts of the city that she was almost destined to discover---the Iron Bank, the Sealord’s Palace, and the Moon Pool. So far, Arya is the only major PoV residing in Braavos. While others may speculate on her TWoW arc taking her to other places, I am firm in my belief that she will remain in the city. As a disciple of Syrio Forel, Arya is probably going to be lured to the Moon Pool and the Sealord’s Palace based on Syrio’s tale of the Sealord’s Palace and the prospect of water dancing in the famous, magical Moon Pool seems like it would be too good for Arya to pass up. Since the Iron Bank is apparently so connected to the Faceless Men, I think the chances of her getting involved with the institution in some fashion are high. The fact that she’s carrying around an iron key in “Mercy” for no discernable reason is a hint that she’s either been given or stolen a key from the powerful keyholders of Braavos aka Iron Bank officials.

           I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the keyholders, the sealord, election voting areas, the iron bank, and the iron key are all mentioned in “Mercy.” Those inclusions are all a set up for the rest of the Braavosi narrative that will be tied with Arya’s PoV. How one will affect the other remains to be seen, but they will impact other characters and how the rest of the series turns out. So far, Arya’s actions will likely cause further strife between King’s Landing and the Iron Bank.  She could also meddle with the Justin Massey’s Iron Bank envoy on behalf of Stannis Baratheon, the upcoming Sealord election, the Hardhome refugees, or the Faceless Men’s objectives. On that note, I do wonder how the Faceless Men will impact the story. If Jaqen is working on behalf of the group at the Citadel, what is his end goal? To destroy the dragons? To the control the dragons? To destroy the means of destroying dragons? The answer to the Jaqen question is uncertain at the moment, but seeing as the Faceless Men don’t take kindly to dragons as legacies of their slave past, I don’t think they want the dragons to live.  The desires of the Faceless Men could put them at odds or in unity with how the Iron Bank and the Sealord’s Palace wishes to deal with their future of their city and how they deal with the dragons and Westeros.

           After hundreds of years in solitude, I can’t imagine how the major institutions of Braavos are not tied with each other. The survival of the city relied on building a community of trust within the shroud of secrecy. But what happens to the city once crisis falls when the world of the series realizes the apocalyptic peril from the beyond the Wall? The Faceless Men are an order with their own god and set of doctrine to follow, the Iron Bank is an absolutely ruthless institution, and the Braavosi government is one of volatile politics. These institutions can easily conflict with each other once the world’s dangers present themselves. And from there they may act on their own intentions. Eventually the city and especially the major characters involved will have to follow in that Braavosi tradition of unmasking secrets.