#we can argue about how much impact a postcard will really have but I promised to do 200 and I keep my promises | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

fightevilandthengetblownup · 4 years ago

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FIC: imagine seeing it printed in the paper for all the world to see

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Ellen - 12/8/12 Your stores are low. That bargirl is dreadful at her job

Jo - 12/8/12 Sophie is great at her job, mom, we already ordered last week. Delivery is expected today or tomorrow at latest.

Ellen - 12/8/12 That’s not good enough, Jo. I taught you better than that. If you’re not going to appreciate feedback - I’ll just get out of your hair.

Jo - 12/9/12 Lots of stuff going on atm mom that the bar is Sophie and Harry’s domain and they’re on top of it so far as I can tell

Ellen - 12/15/12 Who knows what you can tell any more. If the bar goes into debts it’s your own fault. I’ve gotten a message from Rufus regarding needing help and will be going there for a while. You sort yourself out, missy, or you’re going to fall flat on your face like you always do. You don’t have Ash to bail you out any more, and I won’t be either

Jo - 12/1512

How is Rufus?

Ellen -12/18/12 Fine. Hunt was easy. I’ll be going to the East coast for a while until you grow up.

Jo - 12/25/12 Merry Christmas! You coming by Duluth at all?

Jo - 12/31/12 Happy New Year Mom! Hope all going well, bar’s running alright.

Ellen - 02/08/13 Heard from Bobby you got into some trouble on a hunt. Thought you’d grown out of that recklessness.

Jo - 02/16/13 Wasn’t a big deal. Just some thing with a shifter. It was more cop-trouble.

Jo - 03/23/13 Were you going to be near Duluth for the 7th?

Jo - 04/03/13 Sam and Dean were going to be in town next week. Thought if you’d be around good to catch up for my birthday?

Jo - 04/12/13 Gordon is back. Big trouble. Could use some help.

Ellen - 04/12/13 You were big enough to handle him when you were 15, you can handle him on your own now. Get your monster to help if you’re still doing that.

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“Sorry I haven’t been around much-” Jo started to say, leaning heaving onto the bartop as she rubbed her eyes. She’d been looking at the laptop screen for too long, months of catching up as she’d been struggling with the effort to deal with the fallout from the other hunter.

She’d barely left the house for weeks, even to come down to the bar, as she’d been too busy watching out for the other. Grey’d jumped at every creak and noise around the house ever since he’d gotten home, and she was considering what she could do aside from going and begging the other shadow to keep up his inconvenient choice of Whispering that running the bar and keeping tabs on what was going on there was so far down on her list of priorities. She was clearly a horrible businesswoman.

“Don’t worry about it at all, Jo.” Sophie brushed her off with a wide smile, quickly pulling out a caffeinated soft drink from the fridge so Jo could get a bit more energy back. “It’s been peaceful really, kinda like the place is actually mine-”

“You got the cash to buy me out?” “Not yet, besides, you should just pay me a manager’s salary and let me take over.” “You want that? Done!”

“I said you should, not that I want you to!” Sophie squawked, waving a hand at her as she moved to get the other ledger - the paper written back up that Jo did actually demand on being done even though most everything was electronic these days. Sophie understood it though or at least respected that Jo had a soft spot for keeping a hard copy, just for backup. There was a pause before the brunette added quietly, “Besides - I know it’s been a while since anyone new or old has been around, but like… Your mom or Anna aren’t going to be coming back and trying to take over again sometime are they?”

Jo jerked for a second before frowning. It had been a long time since there had been any noise from either of them.

She’d lost track and stopped caring about Anna’s desertion a long while back - a hissed comment under the redhead’s breath one night at the bar that made Jo question if those memories she claimed were gone actually were, and then after Jo pressed the question the other had stormed out and Jo hadn’t seen her since. It’d been almost a year at that point so she doubted she’d ever hear from her ever again - if Jo didn’t go looking, the redhead could stay missing so far as she was concerned. Especially if she wasn’t as wiped clean as she had claimed to be.

Her mom on the other hand was a different story. Jo had been reaching out, and hearing back sometimes, but… Things were never and had never been good. But since Ellen had reappeared and tried to pick up where they’d left off before Carthage - things had been worse. She remembered their last conversation in person - Ellen questioning what Jo wanted in life and accusing her of always picking fights when Jo’d asked genuinely for her opinion on her relationship and how things had been going - and their other communication had been breaking down even worse since. Jo didn’t suspect her mother would be coming around any time soon, especially not to take over her bar since she kept pushing Jo to ‘grow up’ and ‘find some maturity’. It was unlikely she’d be coming to ‘bail’ Jo out of her mess any time soon.

Shaking her head, Jo cracked the top of her soda with a sigh before smiling across at her bar-tending friend. “I can safely assure you - unless I tell you, nobody is going to come and take the bar off of you again.”

“I’ll drink to that!” Sophie grinned widely back at her, tapping the lid of Jo’s can with a glass of water of her own before they both buckled down to get the ledgers done and all that boring paperwork Jo’d been ignoring and Sophie had been doing checked before the bar was due to open.

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The postcards came in from all over the place.

And from all different people.

Some hunters would drop them off in hand, others mailed still, and some were put up by the hunter themselves. Those that were hunter notes usually had a list of details on the back of what was at the location and dates.

Chicago, Austin, San Andreas and others, even Ontario and Quebec.

Those that didn’t have those notes were usually from Ellen, and tucked in and pinned up amongst the rest same as all the others. Those didn’t get any special treatment, just like she knew hers never got additional glances or care.

Milwaukee sat tucked underneath Seattle, there was several from all over Florida and the warmer states.

Jo’d even bought her own postcards for Las Vegas and New Orleans that she’d laughed about tucking beside the strict disapproving sense she got off of the cards from her mother and seriousness from the hunter’s postcards.

Bright and shiny between them.

It was collage spanning the whole country of the webs of connection that the hunting community gave to them all.

And Jo found it comforting to know almost ever part of the country had some touch of not only the supernatural but someone who would protect the innocent or free the trapped.

Point Arena, California to West Quoddy, Maine.

---

That they’d finally bumped into one another was not surprising. That it was over a werewolf hunt where her daughter had bumped her arm and thrown off her shot was a surprise.

Ellen had expected the other had learned by now to not be so reckless and stupid. She had hoped that her daughter would have finally matured into her age and stopped running headlong into things. She had thought perhaps Jo would have grown out of being contrary and arguing because she wanted to rebel.

Their fight at the hotel after Jo had subdued the werewolf with a long chain of silver and getting far too close to the man’s claws for Ellen’s comfort until the sunrose and they’d dropped the man off at his home with the firm promise from the blonde that she’d be back before sundown that night to talk more through what his options were had been on a par with their old fights across the worn Roadhouse floorboards.

Jo had screamed and ranted and raved and demanded that she was right, and that she knew better and that she knew what she was doing. It was so reminiscent that Ellen couldn’t help but fall back into old patterns and asked just how Jo had done handling her old boyfriend since they’d last talked and queried just what Jo had done to turn her old ‘hero’ Gordon against her. The reaction had been icy but even more standard Jo than the screaming - a slammed door and a hiss that she was a grown-up and didn’t have to answer to Ellen anymore - but a firm grip on the other’s arm had stopped the chance of her storming out like the rebellious fifteen-year-old she’d been the last time they had this conversation.

Jo had been quiet and petulant, and tugged and pulled to free herself, but all Ellen could see was her pouting teenage daughter who thought she was strong enough, fast enough, good enough to be out on those dusty roads where she was going to end up dead and gnawed on by some monster. More than she already was, given the scarring on her neck that Ellen had heard through Bobby had been a very nasty accident. All she could see was that same child that wouldn’t listen to her, and screamed that it was Ellen’s fault that her daddy left so often and why couldn’t she be nice and understanding for once.

Ellen had shaken her head then as she let go of her glaring daughter and decided that was it. That was the moment she was done. She’d tried her best to protect her. She’d worked for years with a petulant, stubborn reckless brat of a child with daydreams and fantasies about her perfect father that Ellen could never quite scrub the idealistic glint from. She’d given her all and yet it never had an impact. And she was done. She was done trying to reign the other in, and fix her mistakes, and rescue her from her back choices. She was done trying to protect Jo from herself.

She’d not said as much to the raging blonde though. She’d waited a moment before sighing and simply saying that she was done. She was out.

“I’m not going to be hunting anymore, Jo, you’re going to finally be on your own. I hope you do know what you’re doing for once.”

---

Jo - 05/16/14 I love you mom. Hope today has been okay for you.

You near Chicago still?

Ellen - 05/18/14 Moved last month. Decided to try New York for a while. Moving as much as you hunt.

Jo - 07/23/14 Got a case in New York if you’re around might drop by?

Ellen - 07/26/14 Moved last week - down in Florida.

Jo - 12/24/14 Merry Christmas mom! I was going to go down to get some sun if you were still in Florida somewhere?

Ellen - 01/12/15 Hope you had good holidays and actually spent time with people not your knives. I’ve actually moved to a spot in Texas and going to Michigan next month likely.

Jo - 02/12/15 Got a case near Michigan! Happy to see your daughter?

Ellen - 02/13/15 Would but I stayed in Texas Nothing that would excite you here

Jo - 05/16/15 You ANYWHERE in the continental US this month?

Ellen - 05/20/15 How about I tell you next time I have time in MY schedule for once, Joanna Beth, rather than you thinking you and your gladding about as a hunter means everyone else has to operate under your schedule?

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“You heard anything?”

“Since when?” Bobby grumbled the words back at her with a sharp look, and Jo quickly lowered her own voice as she watched his glance through the open doors into the kitchen where Dean was working on dinner. Or at least, what Dean called dinner. They were likely having some kind of tater-tot casserole - but at least Jo knew it would still be a dish made with love given how flustered the man seemed to be trying to cook for more than just himself and maybe Sam for once. Sam was resting upstairs in one of the spare beds after the boys had rolled in from a demon-hunt that’d resulted in a sore back for the taller hunter and a nasty gash on the other’s face that he covered with the worst bandaging Jo’d ever seen when she arrived. “I ain't heard nothing from your mom since more than a year passed.”

“Yeah?” Jo frowned to herself slightly, rubbing at the back of her neck as she thought about it. “Been longer than that since I last saw her.”

“Oh?” Bobby’s tone reeked of surprise, and Jo couldn’t quite meet the concerned and caring look in his eye as he seemed to take in that information. It was a surprise of course. Even when Jo’d been on the road without Ellen’s so called permission - despite her being a grown-ass-woman at the time - Jo had heard back from her more than she was now. Bobby knew how much the other had kept tabs on her, and especially through him as it was. “All I can say is that she hasn’t been in touch with me to follow up on your, Jo.”

Jo frowned all over again at that. It was so unusual and she had expected despite Ellen’s claims that she was out of hunting that she would keep tabs on her still. It was just what she’d always done. Ellen had never given her the chance to not be watched really - and thus half of the appeal of a strong, charismatic older hunter offering a chance away from Ellen’s control and watchful spies had been all the more - but that her mom really had stepped out from the hunter-sphere felt surprisingly okay.

Jo was standing on her own two feet, and even more than that, she was thriving on her own really.

“Ah well, I can’t really expect she’d want to keep up with things given I still haven’t changed how she wants yet.” Jo finally added after a long moment’s silence and taking a long drag from her beer. “Not bein’ a so called grownup and given up this huntin’ nonsense.”

“That what you think her issue is?” Bobby grumbled the words out, taking a long sip of his scotch as he considered her quietly for a moment. “Not the monster boyfriend?”

“Ha, all she wanted was me to settle down. I think she’s more angry he isn’t tryin’ to control my life like she did Daddy’s.” “He doesn’t stop you hunting?” “Not at all. Grey’s always respectful that huntin’ is what I do.” “Hmm.”

Jo let out a quiet laugh as she looked at the grumpy but believing look the other gave her for a moment before letting out a soft sigh. “Pretty sure even if I wasn’t datin’ Grey, and wasn’t huntin’ she’d still not be happy or care all that much-”

“Jo, that’s your mom. She’ll always care about you,” Dean chimed in as he moved through from the kitchen, a disapproving frown on his face as he stared down at Jo for a moment. “It ain’t like you’re some horrible person that nobody could care about, and even then - she’s still your mom. Mother’s always love you.”

Jo felt a little shiver down her spine at those words, shaking her head to rid the tiny spark of fear they’d brought up, before letting out an exhausted sounding laugh. “You can think that if you like Deano. I’ll just know that I ain’t what my momma ever wanted in a kid and that she’s goin’ to be disappointed s’long as I’m not workin’ some kid-friendly job with a bun in the oven and a banker husband with a white picket fence. It’s fine.”

Dean gave her an even more disapproving look, which Jo shook her head again to rid before pointing a finger at him. “You shut up and sit down here so I can fix that hideous bandage, then you can fight with me ‘bout it.”

The other hunter followed instructions with a quiet grumble, and Jo moved to grab Bobby’s first aid kit but found herself smiling softly as she heard the older hunter talking softly to the other man as she left the room.

“You know, she’s probably right. Jo’s always had so much more of her dad in her - it’s like Bill ain’t never left.”

---

Jo - 03/10/16 Not sure what you’re up to, but if you had a date/time to catch up would love to see you, mom

Jo - 04/07/16 Thank you for having me. Happy birthday for me. You free sometime?

Jo - 05/16/16 I miss you mom I miss dad Are you free?

Jo - 08/28/16 Wanted to see where you were at in case I’m ever nearby?

---

The sound of the siren was sharp and high pitched. It was endless and whirring. And all over the sound of it’s cry she could hear another cry. Someone sobbing and gasping and crying in pain. It was a ragged and harsh sound, and it made her ears and mind hurt to hear the pain in each gasp.

“The driver’s here! She’s breathing!” The voice was unfamiliar and in the state of fog right then, Ellen was sick of trying to differentiate yet another new voice. She heard a hiccup in the crier’s voice, but then the other voice continued again - shouting for the jaws of life and a gurney.

She tried to shake the voices away, the wailing siren too, but all that did was make the crier scream out in agony. Her agony, Ellen realised belatedly as she felt her neck stiff and painful and her head ring in an oddly disjointed way at her attempt to move. It was her crying. She rarely heard the sound, it was so odd to think of herself crying.

She had used to cry silently all the time - alone in bed, or in the shower, or out the back of the bar taking a ‘smoke’ break with no cigarettes when some hunter would come in hurt and dying or dead - but she had stopped after she’d lost her husband. Why cry over the other men foolish enough to follow him into death with their insane line of work? Why keep spilling her tears over a man who hadn’t cared enough about her to stay home? Why cry over what she saw had been falling apart even before they had been married a year?

She had cried afterwards though over someone else - tears had been spilt for years as she watched the lure of the same dangers draw her daughter in. Ellen had tried to stop it, but no one could stop the inevitable. And by the time her daughter had died in her arms and she’d been blown sky high along with her, she had been sure she’d shed her last tears over her husband’s choices to ruin her life. She should have packed up and left year, decades, earlier to try for any happiness but she’d failed her daughter and more importantly herself so the tears had burned away too.

Getting back, Ellen had not cried again. Why cry over her daughter being stupid enough to continue the same path where she left off? Why cry over hunters still, thirty years on? Ellen was sick of crying over hunters and she had left them behind her. It had been for her, and she deserved to be happy.

Sucking in a painful breath that felt more like liquid than air that left her gasping and crying as the paramedic tried to free her from her seat - Ellen was glad this was the time she was crying again. This seemed valid to cry about. Everything hurt but somehow nothing did either. Everything was a fog and quiet but oh so loud too. It seemed right to cry then.

Her life in Swainsboro, Georgia had been great. She’d been working at a few different jobs before getting a managers position at a small bookshop-slash-coffeeshop. She’d made many friends and been part of a community garden. She’d gone to church and been the only one to know that the God they prayed to was truly real and could listen if He wanted. She sometimes even sent a prayer to him that her old friends were safe and okay. She had been part of a council Beautification team working to make the community better. She had helped at the Church and at the local library reading story time every Tuesday and Thursday morning. She had been the Ellen she’d always wanted to be with a small dog and a cute little house that had no iron and no saltlines and no warding against the supernatural under every doorstep. She had been the woman she’d always dreamed she would be.

Her life had been a dream in the small quiet part of the world, and letting out a last hollow cry, Ellen could feel the world slipping from her in a way she did not experience the first time and could only think that she was glad this time she could die happy with the way her life had been. If only the rest of those she cared for could say the same.

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“This number is no longer in service. For information, contact the phone service provider.” - 04/07/17

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“Who’s that?” Jo found herself asking as she leaned against the counter top of the Police station. She was hear on a case the next town over but who didn’t have their own station and as such had their records stored there in Swainsboro. Her suit felt awkward and stiff but she knew that was just her own discomfort being surrounded by law enforcement rather than the suit itself - loving selected on a shopping trip with her sister earlier that year - given the quality of the fabric and the flattering cut of the pencil skirt and jacket that showed off her curves but in a way that still worked perfectly for a Federal agent cover but also a flirty journalist. Today it was Agent Bennet after some very important files about the cow mutilations and missing girls the next town over.

“Who?” “That photograph there.”

“Oh, you mean Mrs Helving!” The friendly dark haired woman working the counter replied, moving over to unpin the photograph of the middle aged woman. “Well, actually, I guess you mean Mrs Jane Doe.”

“Huh?” “She’s one of our unidentified persons-” “What?”

Jo felt like she’d just been doused in ice water as she looked between the photograph of her mother’s face smiling in a way Jo never really remembered seeing before and the officer. Her mother looked back up at her from the photograph - sure her hair was a little less grey and her eyes held more shine and the clothes she wore looked like a Sunday Church goer, but it was still her mom.

“Mrs Helv- uh, you know what, no, Mrs Helving.” The officer smiled gently, a touch of sadness in the woman’s face as she took in the photo over the counter across from Jo, before shaking her head. “Or at least that’s how she was known around town. She was so lovely - worked the Sunday School, and was part of the community garden, and ran the bookshop for old Mr Jenkins - but such a shame.”

“Shame?” Jo asked quietly handing the photograph back with a frown. “What’s a shame?”

“Well, that’s the thing. She wasn’t Mrs Helving! It was an alias!” The officer was wide eyed and sounded shocked to herself at such gossip, putting the photograph back gently. “Turns out all her identification papers were fake, and we only found out after the car crash that she wasn’t who she said she was.”

Jo frowned to herself, tucking her hands into her suit pockets to hide the slight shakes as she looked across curiously. As the officer looked back at her, Jo raised a brow in silent question.

“It was a few months ago. Poor dear!” The other woman shook her own head as she moved to sit back down at her counter with a sigh. “Back during the winter we had an unexpected snow storm. It wasn’t so bad, but poor poor Mrs Helving was in a car crash out on the interstate coming to help pack down the Nativity scene just after new years and her car was driven from the road by an eighteen wheeler. Died right after the paramedics arrived.”

“Oh.” Jo found herself letting out a quiet whoosh of breath as she looked away out the window for a moment, before forcing herself to shake the thought as another officer came out the back with the file boxes she was after. Work first, deal with that second. “Thanks, can I have an office?”

As she moved around to a spare room to read through the paperwork she was after, Jo opened a few tabs on her phone as well to research about the so-called Mrs Helving and her lovely life in Georgia. It wasn’t hard to find what she’d been up to, how the last few years had been, and how respected and cared for Ellen must have been the way she had been back in her domain of the Roadhouse - and yet the effervescent smile in place at all times was the way that never appeared at the last place. Ellen’s life looked great, and like she’d been happier off leaving the world of hunters and pain behind.

Jo had finished with her paperwork and made her way out of the station and towards the local diner to get a good dinner before setting off back to the hunting grounds of what definitely looked to be a lone vampire. She found herself eating her meal quietly, eyes on the articles and Facebook posts and every little thing she could find about her mother’s life, before she pushed away and somehow found herself drawn to the local cemetery the funeral notice had stated she would be resting.

Mrs Ellen Helving 01.07.17 She sowed courtesy and reaped friendship

She planted kindness and gathered love

Looking at it, Jo couldn’t help but let out a laugh at such ridiculousness.

That wasn’t the memory of her mother - it wasn’t what she would have put on such a tombstone and it wasn’t what she would ever say of Ellen Harvelle. Sure, she had been courteous and kind, made friends and shared a loving care for those that came through her door, but that wasn’t what a hunting-widow was made of. Ellen Harvell had been fire and fury, rage and coldness, and an ever present fear of the world outside of the Roadhouse doors where she couldn’t see or control things. That was what Jo would remember of her mother - not some kind woman who was open and loving to all. That wasn’t the tombstone where her mother rested. Her mother had left a charred building and slaughtered hounds of Hell in her wake, she had left a grave marker more in line with the fire that fueled her life.

A bouquet of flowers left behind was all that Jo really felt necessary when she had finished laughing at the tombstone. A small respectful set of flowers for a woman that Jo knew she didn’t know, a stranger with her mother’s past but without the baggage. The words were about a woman Jo never got to know - not the mother Jo had gotten, but how Ellen always should’ve been - and the end of her life seemed as normal as Jo knew she’d always wanted it to be.

Something felt hollow about it, but as Jo set off back to the next town - she knew that Carthage was only a few hours out of her way back home, and maybe she could leave some flowers at her real mother’s grave.

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#cc #ca #jopov #ellenpov

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theonceoverthinker · 6 years ago

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OUAT 2X06 - Tallahassee

Who’s ready for a vacay?! I’m thinking Florida!

...I was kind of hoping for Disney, but *shrugs* whatever.

Anyway, under the cut for my thoughts on this OUAT vacation.

Press Release With the hopes of finding a magical compass that could help her and Mary Margaret get back to Storybrooke, Emma takes a journey with a not-too-trustworthy Captain Hook up a treacherous beanstalk in an attempt to steal the item from a murderous giant. Meanwhile, Emma’s past is revealed to be anything but magical when she meets up with a fellow thief who wants to make an honest woman out of her. General Thoughts - Characters/Stories/Themes and Their Effectiveness Past This was a really well put together segment! What makes it work for me is the care they brought to Neal while constructing his backstory in regards to Emma. It’s actually been a while since I’ve watched an episode with Neal in it, and I forgot about a lot of his charm and dedication. At the same time, the episode doesn’t make Neal perfect at any point, showing him be a thief and getting angry, exasperated, and even a little stupid. That stuff makes the betrayal of Emma’s trust, for as saddening as it is, feel like something that could feasibly happen, especially as the audience can interpret to some extent (Until it’s explicitly laid out a few episodes later).

I have an unpopular opinion among my fellow Emma fans. That is, I feel like she’s a character that doesn’t necessarily need a ton of backstory. That’s because episodes like these are so impactful for the exact reason that they're rarities. when someone lets Emma down in just one flashback, we understand how important that moment was to Emma and how it shaped that one facet of her personality so specifically. well, I feel like had they had too many Emma flashbacks, they wouldn’t have been as effective because they would have been akin to laying on a bed of nails: An overabundance of sob stories just makes one feel exhausted more than sympathetic and so much more of Emma’s depth is revealed from the parts of her that are not spoonfed, such as her one off lines about the effects of her lonely upbringing. Present I’ll go over this soon, but trust is a big theme of this episode, and Emma’s trust for Killian in the present is framed to be at a contrast with her trust for Neal in the past. And to a degree and not a small one, that does come through. There are a lot of subtle moments that show growth (Killian being able to read Emma, Emma confessing that she was in love once, Emma’s concern for Killian’s wellbeing). However, I feel like for in order for Emma’s betrayal at the end to make more sense as a move that frustrates but is still understandable, they should’ve shown a bit more growth in Emma’s trust for Killian. As it stands, their interactions feel like they more or less reset at the start of every new scene between them. Emma makes her distrust for Killian clear, the two of them do something (Climbing, knocking out Anton, exploring Anton’s castle), one of them gets in physical danger or something is otherwise exposed, and 1% of trust is added. I really feel like there should’ve been a bit more warmth or more obvious progress because not only on its own, but especially when compared to Emma and Neal’s story, it’s not as effective when Emma locks him up because I can’t help but feel like that’s something she probably would’ve done at the end of “The Doctor” too. What changed and does she regret her choice? It doesn’t seem to be the case because there’s not much within the segment itself to compare the moment to.

On a more positive note, in addition to just Killian’s interactions with Emma, we get a lot of insight into his character on his own. For instance, Killian, despite working for Cora, doesn’t trust her, adding to the later-on emphasized concern for self preservation. We also see the first of Killian’s signature impatience. It’s weird. After over 100 years in Neverland, Killian has definitely shown how patient he can be, but as his revenge gets closer, practically insight, we see how that patience just drops to nothing. One could conceivably even call that a fault in his character, but I’d argue against that given how we've also seen later on instances where Killian has had no patience with his revenge right in front of him, so it does make sense. It's also very interesting parallel to Rumple, who in later episodes is shown to experience similar behavior. All Encompassing The issue and theme of trust (Or rather, destroyed trust) is prevalent through the two main segments. In the past, Neal betrayed Emma’s trust, and taking from that experience, Emma betrays Killian’s trust (And to a smaller extent, Snow’s trust through not telling her about her favor from Mulan). This episode also has a really nifty parallel to its own predecessors. Now, in a lot of episodes of season 2 thus far, we’ve see characters internalizing a bad lesson in the past, but rejecting it (mostly) in the present (Rumple being more cooperative with Belle’s needs, Regina refusing to inflict the same pain on Henry that Cora inflicted on her, and Regina being able to let go of Daniel). However, for the first time this season, we see a character who internalized that lesson in the past (protect yourself because you don't know when someone will betray you, even if you trust them), but actually refused to move on from it in the present. Emma, despite seeing and even acknowledging that she does to a large extent trusts Killian, still leaves him cuffed atop the beanstalk (“I can’t take a chance that I’m wrong about you.” Insights - Stream of Consciousness -I love Killian in his robes! He just looks so snuggly, even more so than usual! -”Bad form” makes what I believe is its first appearance! -Killian, watch that! That’s your soon-to-be mother-in-law talking! -I like how the mythology of the giants factors into the present story. Keeping in tune with one of the secondary themes of the episode -- that things are never what they seem -- the giant’s were described as brutes (As per Killian’s story), they were (As we later learn) more like isolationists and he war of giants and men was flipped from the known storyline. Watching this episode with the knowledge from “Tiny” already in mind makes all the scenes where the giant’s history is described so gruesome. -Has anyone ever written a fic where Cora actually does accompany Killian up the beanstalk? -”Emma Swan. Good name.” Am I the only one to connect this to Rumple’s “Emma. What a lovely name” line? -I know Neal gets a lot of flack for the “women” line, but I’m not entirely convinced that that was what he was going for. Instead, I feel like he’s playing to the cop’s sexism. I feel this way both because of the really over-the-top-but-in-a-way-that-one-can-tell-it’s-fake weasel-y smile he gives the cop and the “we” he says regarding his and Emma’s escape once the cop goes away. -”You’re not gonna argue with me?” “Would it do you any good?” I like that subtle display of Emma and Snow’s growing bond! -”Well, you never forget your first.” Now I really want to know what Killian’s first beanstalk was like! -Does anyone know what an Apollo bar is? Like, I know that it’s a fake candy bar, but what’s inside? -Random dude in the shop: Just yell “He’s stealing!” And why did you guys not chase after them?! -”Are you sure? Is this...what you really want?” MY POOR EMMA!!!! She’s been let down so many times! -I just realized that after the events of “Awake,” everyone in town had nightmares for months! How much you want to bet there was an Insomnia Club that was formed afterwards? XD -I like how Aurora’s grown to trust Snow so much given their rocky start! (Sleeping Snow, anyone?) -”It’s where the Final Battle was.” I know A&E had absolutely no knowledge as to the Season 6 finale, but I can’t help but snicker anyway. -”It’s rum, and a bloody waste of it.” I feel like this line would’ve worked better with that deleted scene from when they were climbing the giant’s beanstalk. -”Maybe I was once.” I find that this is such a good acknowledgment of trust that Emma now has in Killian. -How strong is Killian that he can get such a loud sound out of that simple pounding with a bone? -I love Anton’s costume! It’s so cuddly! -”I’m the worst human around!” I wonder how much Killian truly believes that. Like don’t get me wrong, Killian’s a baddie and a bad baddie, but does he consider himself worse than Rumple or was that line just part of the ruse? Because it’s Killian, I could honestly buy either. -Jack is so fucking extra. Who puts their own name on their sword?! -Emma just has the most beautiful hair ever! -I love seeing how much Emma’s willing to fight for her happiness when she knows she has it. As soon as Neal tells her he can’t go to Tallahassee, but instead needs to go to Canada, Emma’s all ready to go! -I sometimes forget just how Neal and Baelfire are the same person. It’s not like it’s executed badly or anything, but it’s such a change. -”You know your rights?” I’m not a cop by ANY means, but I’m pretty sure the cop has to actually say the rights (Correct me if I’m wrong). -”We do it side-by-side and fast.” Another line that shows Emma’s increasing trust for Killian! -”You gotta promise that you’ll be there for me.” “I promise.” LIAR! -”Money’s not what she needs.” August, she has roughly ten years left before she can break the curse AND she’s an ex-con. She might need that extra money! August, I’m not liking you in this episode! -How did August send Neal a postcard in his wooden form? -*Bites Anton to get freed* Emma, I don’t know what your dental plan (Or lack thereof) is, but stick with it! Also, more characters should bite to solve their problems! XD -Emma’s gotten so comfortable with a sword! -”You’re wrong.” [About all humans being killers] Emma, saying that while waving the sword isn’t helping your case. -”Now go before I change my mind.” Anton, you precious bean! You can see him trying and failing to be a badass! -”A jump from a beanstalk.” You’re one hell of a daredevil, Emma! Arcs - How are These Storylines Progressing? Emma and Snow getting back to Storybrooke - We get both half a means of a return journey as well as a future means of communication between the realms. Favorite Dynamic Emma and Anton - I honestly stuck this here because I figure I have talked (And will talk) about the other main dynamics, so why not go a touch more obscure?! So, what I like about Emma and Anton’s connection is something that connects her to both Neal and Killian, but gets its due emphasis here: Emma and Anton believe themselves to be alone and have learned not to trust others. And Emma, after understanding Anton’s story, position, and his victimization at the hands of those who bastardized his history, she shows him understanding and compassion, and Anton returns that. Writer We’ve once again got one new writer (Christine Boylan) and one old writer (Jane Espenson). It’s a pretty decent premiere! The past segment especially was fantastic, painting a story about Emma and Neal that was simple, but it worked for that reason. The present segment, well I have a bit more issues with it. I feel like there was this tug of war. they wanted to keep the characters consistent but also tell a story about trust and how Emma’s past ruined that growing trust, and while it’s possible to do that, the journey needed more room for more overt growth. Now, I like the more subtle shows of growing trust (As I said before, confessions of love from the past and concern for each other), but it also felt like those subtle bits didn’t really move Emma and Killian anywhere meaningful, making the climactic moment fall flat, and that’s frustrating because I can't help it feel like this was easily fixable. Why couldn’t Emma and Killian have a moment where they were talking a bit more comfortably, perhaps right before the scene before Anton re-enters the castle, and Killian says something that echoes something Neal said to her in the past segment (Think like when Felix called Calhoun a “dynamite gal” in Wreck It Ralph)? It would’ve contributed more to the crossroad that Emma found herself at the end of the episode and would make her decision (Again) more understandable for as frustrating as it is. Rating 7/10. I really hate giving this episode this score. It’s an okay score for an okay episode, but after the first five episodes of the season scored 10’s or Golden Apples, it feels worse than it actually is to have to put that number down. I loved this walk through of Emma’s experiences with trust. It paints this really vivid image of the types of disappointments that Emma has seen through her lifetime of abandonment, but gave a good deal of nuance and understanding to Neal, someone who ordinarily may have been just straight up villainized. I took points because I felt that there could’ve been just a bit stronger of a growing trust between Killian and Emma. I felt it, but to be a parallel to what Neal and Emma had, I just wish it was stronger because it really just feels like Emma did exactly what she would’ve done to Killian in the previous episode. I want to see her journey and previous experiences shape her actions and while I felt like it was done okay, it was still too weak to contribute to what should’ve been a more tragic payoff. Flip My Ship - Home of All Things “Shippy Goodness” Captain Swan - “Don’t think I’m taking my eyes off you for a second.” “I’d despair if you did.” Those two lines are just the best! Everything one would want from chemistry to animosity is there and it’s just fantastic! The same goes for the famous “I love a challenge line!” Also, in two weird CS/SF parallels, (1) Neal calls he and Emma a we, whereas Emma calls she and Killian “we,” and (2), Neal calls their escape “home” to Emma in the past and Emma does the same with Killian in the present. Also also, I just genuinely love the way Emma worries for Killian after the giant falls, shouting “Hook” as loud as she can. Also, also, also, “Everything we need is right in front of us.” Note how the two of them were looking at each other. Swan Fire - I like how in Emma and Neal’s first scene, Emma raises an impressed eyebrow to Neal as he’s lying to the cop. It’s such a sign that she’d found a kindred spirit! It’s also reinforced when Emma smiles at Neal’s second request for drinks. I like how Neal upgrades their lied about relationship from “girlfriend” to “wife,” subtly signifying how their relationship has truly grown. Also, “this little guy saved us!” I know that was totally not intended to be about Henry necesaarily, but fuck it, I’mma imagine it! Also, the kiss afterwards was adorable as all hell! As was the conversation in the hotel room, and it makes their tragic downfall all the more tragic! Also, there’s a Snowing parallel I just noticed! In the hotel scene in the flashback, Emma talks about how dreamcatchers (Which is kind of her thing with Neal) kept the bad dreams away. Meanwhile, Charming used a candle (Fire = Balefire) to ward the nightmares off from Snow. Also also, “what you want” seems to be a bit of a line between them, akin to “I will always find you” and “I’m a survivor,” said twice by Emma -- once to confirm and again to reaffirm her dedication to Neal! Finally, I just love how Neal initially stands up to August on Emma’s behalf when he says he’s her guardian angel. ()()()()()()()()() Thank you for reading! And to the fine folks at @watchingfairytales to putting this project together and helping me keep the lights on!

Next time, let’s hang out with some moon kids! Season 2 Tally (57/220) Writer Tally for Season 2: Adam Horowitz and Edward Kitsis: (20/60) Jane Espenson (17/50) Andrew Chambliss and Ian Goldberg (10/50) David Goodman (10/30) Robert Hull (10/30) Christine Boylan (7/30)

Operation Rewatch Archives

#ouat #once upon a time #watching fairytales #ouat 2x06 #ouat rewatch #jenna watches ouat #ships mentioned #swan fire #Captain Swan

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orbemnews · 4 years ago

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Kids are taking governments to court over climate. And they are starting to win. The 25-year-old climate activist had taken the German government to court last year and won. On April 29, the country’s Supreme Court announced that some provisions of the 2019 climate change act were unconstitutional and “incompatible with fundamental rights,” because they lacked a detailed plan for reducing emissions and placed the burden for future climate action on young people. The court ordered the government to come up with new provisions that “specify in greater detail how the reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions” by the end of next year. The decision made headlines across the world. “It was hard to digest, because it was so, so unexpected,” Neubauer told CNN, stressing that while it was her name on the case — Neubauer et al. versus Germany — she was just one of many people involved. “This case changes everything,” she said. “It’s not nice to have climate action, it’s our fundamental right that the government protects us from the climate crisis.” Peter Altmaier, the German minister for energy and the economy called the court’s finding “significant” and a “historic decision for climate and the rights of young people.” Climate lawsuits are becoming an increasingly popular and powerful tool for climate change activists. A January report released by the United Nations Environment Programme found that the number of climate litigation cases filed around the world nearly doubled between 2017 and 2020. Crucially, the governments are starting to lose, Neubauer’s victory came just months after a court in Paris ruled that France was legally responsible for its failure to meet emission cutting targets. Another similar case involving six young people from Portugal was fast-tracked at the European Court of Human Rights last October. Mark Clarke, a partner at the international law firm White & Case, says that not only are there more climate cases being brought forward, there’s also a shift in the way they are being framed. “The most significant trend is the pivot away from claims for damages as a result of the physical impacts of climate change, towards rights-based claims,” he said. The cases are most often centered around the idea that future generations have a right to live in a world that is not completely decimated by the climate crisis. Neubauer and her co-claimants argued that the current German government’s failure to have a concrete plan to reduce emissions beyond 2030 would make their lives more difficult because they’d be forced to confront the catastrophic impact of climate change in the future. The 2019 law called for a 55% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 from 1990 levels. The lawsuit argued that the target wasn’t sufficient to meet Germany’s obligations under the Paris accord. Under the agreement, most signatories pledged to keep global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius and as close to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that warming of more than 2 degrees would have devastating consequences, including sea level rise, frequent heatwaves, extreme weather and droughts. “The [German Constitutional] court was not so much talking about the impacts of climate change on young people, but the impact of mitigation measures,” said Gerry Liston, the head of climate litigation at Global Legal Action Network, or GLAN. “If action is delayed, it will require vastly greater emissions reductions in the future and that would impose a massive burden on those alive then,” he said. Liston is representing the six Portuguese young people who have taken 33 governments to the European Court of Human Rights over their failure to act on the climate crisis. Aged between nine and 22, they are already experiencing its effects. Four of them are from Leiria, a region devastated by deadly wildfires in 2017. The fires killed at least 62 people — some of them burned alive in their cars as they tried to escape. Joana Setzer, a fellow at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said the fact that so many of the climate cases are brought by young people makes them more powerful — because children and young adults can legitimately argue they will face the worst impacts of the climate crisis in the future. “These kids, they found their voice, they went to the streets and they were there, shouting in front of parliaments, and when they couldn’t go to the streets anymore because of social distancing and Covid, they went to court,” she told CNN. Governments around the world have been coming up with ever more ambitious climate targets in recent years. But according to UN climate chief Patricia Espinosa, many have so far failed to set out plans on how to reach them. Now, they are being held accountable for their promises. “The government seems to still mix up setting climate targets with doing climate action,” Neubauer said. “It’s two different things — targets cannot replace what the government does now, and what the government does right now is basically preventing us from reaching those targets.” The new tobacco Setzer told CNN that while a majority of climate cases are still either unsuccessful or pending, there have been some significant wins in recent years. The UN report on climate litigation also said there has been an increase in the success of actions taken. Tim Crosland, the director of Plan B, a charity focused on climate litigation, said that when it comes to lawsuits, climate is the new tobacco. “In the tobacco litigation cases, you had quite few successful cases to begin with, before the tide turned and the litigation started to go the other way,” he said. Crosland said the trend in climate cases began to emerge in 2018, when three key events helped shift the public perception of the scale and urgency of the crisis. “You have the IPCC report when we get the headlines around the world that say we have 11 years to save the planet; you have Greta and her school strikes, and you have the extinction rebellion protests,” he said, referring to the Swedish activist Greta Thunberg. “You have the IPCC report when we get the headlines around the world that say we have 11 years to save the planet; you have Greta and her school strikes, and you have the extinction rebellion protests,” he said, referring to the Swedish activist Greta Thunberg. “This culminates in a number of things, including this trend of governments declaring climate emergencies and it becomes really hard for the courts to ignore.” Clarke, the White & Case lawyer, added that legal precedent is building as the number of cases rises. Advances in climate science are also helping, he said. “[That] is enabling claimants to address the challenges they have previously faced with respect to establishing causation and the apportionment of liability.” Yet for many activists, winning isn’t even the ultimate goal, Setzer noted. “They are really understanding the strategic role of litigation and making the process as — or more — important than the outcome. These cases receive so much media attention and this is becoming something of a real concern for governments,” she said. ‘We can’t sit by and watch this’ As one of the faces of the climate movement in Germany, Neubauer says she is on the receiving end of lots of backlash — she even jokes that she gets death threats at the same rate as postcards from her grandfather. “It’s incredible how much aggression arises once people take action … but it’s not my problem. If [some people] decide to spend an afternoon writing hate messages about me on their Facebook wall, that is their problem and not my problem. That’s their hate.” She said the lawsuit was just a logical continuation of the climate protests she helped to organize across Germany. “We found out that we had been striking for 125 weeks and the government was somewhat resistant to the idea that it might be actually their job to protect our future through the action today, and so I felt we need to do everything possible to change the course of things.” It’s a sentiment echoed by Marina Tricks and Adetola Onamade, two British students who have launched their own legal action together with Plan B against the UK government over what they say is a “failure to take practical and effective measures to meet its legally binding targets for reducing its domestic greenhouse gas emissions.” “The government is saying we are climate leaders and we are setting an example, but then they are putting £27 billion into roads, and a few million into the green recovery deal and they are completely ignoring the global dimension,” Onamade said. “We can’t sit by and watch that happen — we will hold them accountable in court, but we will also hold them accountable on the streets,” Tricks added. In response to the lawsuit, the UK government said the claim was “totally without merit” and that the assertion that the government was failing on climate policy is “manifestly false.” Along with their co-claimant Jerry Amokwandoh, Onamade and Tricks say that they have families and friends in West Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America, parts of the world that have been hit hard by the climate crisis. They allege the UK government’s support of fossil fuels and the lack of meaningful climate action violates their human rights, including their right to family life, according to the claim for judicial review filed with the court. “The UN has put out estimates that there could be 200 million, and up to 1 billion, [climate] migrants by 2050, and we know these facts, yet we’re still on the same trajectory,” Tricks said. “It’s the fact that the government is seeing these facts — because I know that if I’m seeing them, they’re definitely seeing them — so they have the full knowledge, they have the means, they have the solutions, yet they’re doing nothing.” Over in Germany, it took the government less than a week to come up with new climate goals following its defeat at the Supreme Court. It is now proposing to cut its carbon emissions by 65% from 1990 levels by 2030, as opposed to the original 55%. It also pushed forward its net zero target, from 2050 to 2045. The law will need to be approved by the German parliament. Neubauer remains unimpressed. “I wonder if they’ve actually understood what the court has ruled there,” she said, saying that adding a couple of percentage points here and there simply doesn’t cut it. “We need to think the other way around. There is a clear boundary — the amount of emissions, the carbon budget that we have, is finite. You cannot extend it any longer and we need to think from that budget backwards, what does it mean for the amount of emissions we can produce today and tomorrow,” she said. Source link Orbem News #Climate #Court #Governments #Kids #starting #win

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shirlleycoyle · 4 years ago

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It’s Crunch Time and Data Shows the USPS Is Still Experiencing Delays

This article was sent on Tuesday to subscribers of The Mail, Motherboard’s pop-up newsletter about the USPS, election security, and democracy. Subscribe to get the next edition before it is published here, as well as exclusive articles and the paid zine.

Hi everyone, exciting news: Our second zine has been printed and is currently on the way to us, and will be mailed out to subscribers later this week or early next week. This month's edition is about a topic that has always been near and dear to our hearts: Hacking. Since most of our hacking coverage is about things that happen online, we thought it'd be cool to have a snapshot of where hacking culture is, in a printed zine. The issue features stories by Motherboard staff and this incredible cover art by Rebekka Dunlap:

Anyone who subscribes now will also get a copy of our first zine. There are also a few people who have subscribed since we sent out the first zine—we will ship you both zines at the same time.

If you want to get in on the first batch, please subscribe by Friday.

We are now a week from Election Day (somehow!) and mail service in many parts of the country still sucks. Two areas in particular where mail service sucks are Philadelphia and Detroit, Democratic strongholds in key swing states. The Washington Post published an article focusing on mail problems in those two cities as well as other swing states, although the article also made clear they're hardly the only areas experiencing delays.

Mail delays are persisting despite the USPS's carefully worded promises to stop doing some—but not all—of the stuff that made people angry over the summer, at least until the election is over. For example, they stopped dismantling sorting machines but didn't promise to put any back in service (a few recent media reports claimed a federal judge ordered them to put the machines back together; the order merely stated the USPS must do so if it could no longer accommodate election mail which the USPS has long maintained won't be an issue). They said they would not ban late or extra truck trips or overtime but also insisted they never did that in the first place, even though they obviously curtailed them significantly. And the USPS never in fact fully resumed late or extra trips, which still lag far behind pre-DeJoy levels along with overall service. In sum, delays are persisting despite court orders that mandate USPS management knock it off (to use a technical legal term).

Why does mail service still lag its pre-DeJoy levels? And does it matter for tallying votes?

We live in a country in which all votes matter but some votes matter more than others. If you live in a swing state, the marginal value of your vote in the presidential election is a lot higher than mine is in New York. Similarly, mail delays in some parts of the country could have a much greater significance than in others.

Using performance data released by the USPS as part of one of the court cases, I tried to create one chart that summarizes first class mail delivery performance since the beginning of the year. It's a little messy since it's broken down by the USPS's 67 service districts, but I think it tells an important story. Below is a screenshot of the chart, but you can play around with an interactive version of it here (the big swooping outlier that runs off the chart in April is the New York district).

USPS First Class Service Performance by District

Every chart tells a story, sometimes misleadingly so. But the one this chart is telling me accords with all of the reporting I and many others have done on the USPS so far. So I think it's worth listening to.

The story goes like this: In 2020, two events destabilized USPS performance in different ways. The first was the pandemic, which began in mid-March in certain parts of the country and, in case you haven't noticed, is still going. It destabilized service in specific places at specific times. While this could impact delivery rates elsewhere if it caused key sorting facilities to be short-staffed, in general the impacts were relatively localized. To tell this story in terms of the way the graph looks, it caused some districts to get detached from the big clump of lines that represents the pre-2020 status quo. But the status quo clump didn't change much if at all.

Then, in July, the clump undergoes a "W" pattern, where service tanks, briefly rebounds a bit, tanks again, then rises once more to almost-but-not-quite reach the status quo levels again. This second destabilizing event coincides with Postmaster General Louis DeJoy's sudden policy shifts as well as the peak of coronavirus case counts over the summer.

However, I think it's pretty clear this "W" pattern was the result of DeJoy's changes, not coronavirus cases as the USPS continues to argue. We saw throughout the previous months how coronavirus affects mail service, and this looks altogether different.

When coronavirus delays mail service, some districts fall off the clump as case counts rise in that area. That's not what we see in July. Instead, we see a sudden, simultaneous drop-off across the entire postal network. Districts didn't fall off the clump. The clump went into freefall.

What happened afterwards is the most important lesson for today: the clump stopped being quite so clumpy, meaning service performance became more erratic and with a higher variance between districts. You can tell this by comparing the density of the lines in January to that of September. In January, the clump ranged from 85 percent to 95 percent, or a 10-point variance. By September, the clump is spread out from a high of just over 90 percent all the way down to about 70 percent, or a 20-point variance.

In total, the story of this chart is one of an organization losing control. Not just in swing states, but everywhere. Even non-swing states like Alabama and Mississippi are struggling with mail service, ranking towards the bottom of first-class mail delivery.

Which brings us back to the second of the two questions I asked at the top of this newsletter: does the USPS service tanking matter for counting votes? The best answer I can give right now is: probably, but we don't yet know how much.

First, we simply don't know how many people are waiting to mail ballots until the last minute. According to the U.S. Elections Project, there were 47 million mail-in ballots still waiting to be returned as of Sunday. Some of them will be mailed back in the last week. A smaller number of them will probably be mailed back on November 1 or 2. But many likely won't be mailed back at all, with voters either opting to cast their ballot in person on Election Day, during early voting if available, or not at all. Plus, a few states have changed postmarking and ballot delivery deadlines to add some buffer time for sluggish mail service, so even if a ballot is mailed back on, say, November 2, it might be counted in one state but not the other, even if they are both delivered on November 4.

Second, it's not clear whether the overall first-class mail statistics accurately reflect how ballots specifically are handled (which are only about two percent of overall first class mail during these election weeks). The USPS has pledged to make all possible resources and alternatives available to expedite ballot delivery, particularly in the final week before Election Day. How much will they actually do, and to what extent will it move ballots faster and more reliably? This is all yet to be seen.

Third, the distinction between being on time and being two days late has a huge difference in service delivery. According to the USPS, for the week of October 10 to October 16, 97.25 percent of first-class mail was delivered either on time or less than two days late. That's within a percentage point of its performance in January.

So a randomly selected voter within the U.S. would have roughly the same expectation a ballot mailed by Thursday will reach their election official by the end of Election Day with the similar confidence as before the pandemic. But, on aggregate, a one percentage point dip across tens of millions of ballots could mean hundreds of thousands of ballots not getting delivered in time. That could make a huge difference if these delayed ballots are concentrated in just a few key areas like Detroit and Philadelphia. It could also make little difference if they're spread out across the entire country roughly in proportion to the service performance lines we saw above. And, of course, smaller numbers of ballots make bigger differences in outcomes the further down the ballot you go. How much of a difference the USPS will make is one of those things you can only really know by doing the math after the votes are tallied. But I think we can all agree it would be better for democracy if the USPS was functioning like it did in early June.

This Week in Mail

I just sent links on Thursday and not that much has happened since then. Here’s a cool story about India’s postal network. Which reminds me, I’ve gotten a few questions about how postal services work in other parts of the world, how they have handled the internet transition, etc. I will have more to say on this but for now please read this excellent London Review of Books article from 2011.

Postcards

Wash hands

Wear masks

Write letters

Aaron

It’s Crunch Time and Data Shows the USPS Is Still Experiencing Delays syndicated from https://triviaqaweb.wordpress.com/feed/

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bigdatanewsmagazine · 7 years ago

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Could predictive analytics become tomorrow’s QR code? – Inman.com

Do you remember the buzz that surrounded the introduction of the QR (quick response) code? We all rushed to put it on everything: We put it on our flyers, our newspaper ads and our business cards. One agent in Seattle even put it on his billboard.

What was he thinking? That people were going to stop their cars, get out their phones and shoot the QR code off the billboard to go to his website?

We did it because we were told it was the coolest and hottest new “have to have” technology. But guess what? When we looked at our Google Analytics, the traffic generated by QR codes were in the single digits.

Single digits!

It didn’t matter that we put it on tens of thousands of postcards, thousands of flyers and hundreds of business cards. The QR code craze over promised and under delivered.

Fast-forward to the next big thing

Today, the big “have to have” technology is clearly predictive analytics. By mining big data, we can now figure out the homeowners who are most likely to sell their home even before they contact an agent. It’s just like how Google knows so much about people from their online behavior that it can tell if a woman is pregnant before she even knows she is.

Actionize big data with predictive analytics to win listings

Today, many companies are jumping on yet another new tech bandwagon somewhat blindly, I would argue. They are starting to change some of their marketing tactics because this next big thing is supposed to be better.

But consider this: Once predictive analytics helps these brokerages figure out who the most likely person is to sell their house, doesn’t somebody still have to make the phone call? And when an agent makes that call, how does that conversation go? “Hello, I’m John Doe with XYZ Real Estate. You don’t know me, but by any chance are you thinking about selling your home?”

Can you imagine being the homeowner? “Who are you and how did you get my name? I am on a list? What list?”

It’s not rocket science, which is a problem

One thing that no one is talking about is the impact of the immediate proliferation of predictive analytics services that have appeared seemingly overnight. Initially, only a few companies were talking about it, now there seems to be dozens of firms offering some version of it. Which leads me to believe that data science being used isn’t really all that complicated.

If my suspicions are correct, here is what I worry about: How many companies that are offering predictive analytic services are going to be identifying the same homeowners as those most likely to sell? Because if that is what happens, the user experience would be immediately corrupted, right?

Think about it.

How many phone calls or — worse — knocks on their door would a homeowner have to get asking them if they are thinking about or getting ready to list their home for sale before they come unglued?

If it were rocket science — if it was really, really hard to determine who is most likely to sell a home — that would be great. Predictive analytics would be incredibly expensive and very few companies would be able to make the investment. That would mean fewer calls to homeowners, and it would prevent them from being bombarded. But if everyone gets the same information, well, it kind of reminds you of what has happened with internet-based lead generation, doesn’t it?

A bigger issue looms

Even if the same information is not being replicated, there’s a bigger limitation with predictive analytics: it’s too narrowly focused on what it does. It limits the result it delivers in terms of the total return on investment, it is limiting in the business value for most real estate agents, and it is limited in the scope of its reach in the marketplace.

Predictive analytics is targeted marketing. And while targeted marketing can be very effective, it is just one tool; you can’t sustain a business solely with target marketing. Top-producing agents will tell you that to build long-term business, you have to saturate a market.

Predictive analytics needs to be evaluated not just on what it delivers, but how it fits into an agent’s marketing plan. It can’t be a standalone solution. It would be no more effective in building long-term business than a QR code is in driving people who get a postcard in the mail from you to your website.

Better ways to target

If you really want to leverage the power of predictive analytics and saturate a market as an agent, then you should become very well acquainted with Facebook. One could argue that other than perhaps Google, there is no single entity that is better at mining big data than Facebook.

Real estate agents and brokerages are discovering how much more powerful Facebook is as a marketing tool than just about any other marketing investment. The beauty is that Facebook not only lets you saturate a specific neighborhood for a very low investment, but simultaneously use their predictive behavior and demographics tools to target people who are, for example, “Likely To Move” or “Buying A House” (yes those are actual features on Facebook!)

Also, when you post to Facebook, its algorithm automatically directs your content to people who are likely to be interested in it, which is really just another way Facebook’s predictive technology puts you in front of the right people. In effect, you get the best of both worlds, building both a long-term business by reaching a larger geographic and a broader demographic sphere.

This new approach raises your visibility for those who are in need of immediate help, connecting to those who want to invite you in to do business with them. I would think that’s the better way to leverage predictive analytics.

Lane Hornung is the founder and CEO of both zavvie — a digital power farming platform — and Boulder, Colorado-based real estate company — 8z Real Estate. He’s a respected innovator, entrepreneur and accomplished Realtor and broker-owner. Follow Lane on LinkedIn.

Email Lane Hornung.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

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from Could predictive analytics become tomorrow’s QR code? – Inman.com

#Could predictive analytics become tomorrow’s QR code? – Inman.com

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garynsmith · 7 years ago

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Could predictive analytics become tomorrow’s QR code?

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What was he thinking? That people were going to stop their cars, get out their phones and shoot the QR code off the billboard to go to his website?

Single digits!

It didn’t matter that we put it on tens of thousands of postcards, thousands of flyers and hundreds of business cards. The QR code craze over promised and under delivered.

Fast-forward to the next big thing

Agents can do more business with millennials by understanding their preferences and behaviors

Can you imagine being the homeowner? “Who are you and how did you get my name? I am on a list? What list?”

It’s not rocket science, which is a problem

Think about it.

How many phone calls or — worse — knocks on their door would a homeowner have to get asking them if they are thinking about or getting ready to list their home for sale before they come unglued?

A bigger issue looms

Better ways to target

Email Lane Hornung.

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