#unpopular pm holding out on a general election? what else is new

[whiskeysorrows]

Look at that. What a fucking surprise

[polyaletheia]

The Future of the United Kingdom

Here’s my best guess as to what happens now.

A Brexiteer is elected leader of the Conservative Party, and thus becomes Prime Minister.

There’s no majority for a no-deal Brexit in parliament, but there’s no majority for anything else either. With the PM preferring no deal, the UK leaves the EU with no deal when the clock runs out on October 31st.

Preparation for no deal was as good as it could reasonably be, but it’s still completely inadequate. It’s a complete disaster in the short term, shortages of food, fuel, drugs etc. These are sorted out with various mini-deals or whatever.

The UK starts trading with the EU on WTO terms. It also loses access to trade deals between the EU and other countries. This triggers a recession, with huge job layoffs.

In 2022, or possibly earlier, there’s a general election. Labour wins a landslide as the Tories are blamed for everything, and Change UK has split the lib dem vote. Corbyn becomes PM.

Socialist policies ease the burden on the poorest, but further damage the competitiveness of British industry, and do nothing to staunch the layoffs.

Corbyn comes under intense pressure from his party for a new referendum to rejoin the EU, but drags his feet.

In the mean time, Scottish nationalists demand, get, and easily win a referendum on independence. Not sure how they address the currency issue this time, maybe they bite the bullet and go for the Euro. Scotland joins the EU.

The Irish border problem is “solved” by hardening it with a wall and checks of goods and people. It’s hugely unpopular with just about everyone.

Even traditionally unionist folks in NI are unhappy with the situation. Irish republicans, not being total fucking dumbasses, largely hold off on violence and seek to make a democratic economic case for a united Ireland in the EU, reaching across sectarian lines and pointing to Scottish success. Political conversion is inevitably slow, though.

By about 2025, the remaining UK either rejoins the EU, or joins EFTA, or agrees to a deal similar to the Withdrawal Agreement.