#unless the canucks lose in which case it never happened

[atwhughesversion]

idk how to describe it but me and devs admin have beef

[thrashermaxey]

Roos Lets Loose: Battle of the Netminders

  Back when Cage Match was still my weekly column, you had to wait until the summer and winter for tournaments/polls; but the good news is now you’ll get one every month! And what better way for me to kick things off than having a tournament involving goalies, which I never got a chance to cover while doing Cage Match.

  The premise of this tournament/poll is deceptively simple – pick the five goalies who’ll get the most wins in the next five seasons, starting next season. But it’s more difficult than it appears, since it has as much, if not more so, to do with a netminder’s age, the team he plays for and his contract/cap situation as it does with his pure skill. Keeping those things in mind, here are the choices (in alphabetical order, along with their current age plus their contract status and cap hit). Vote for the five whom you believe will have the most cumulative wins from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 campaign. Although not listed below, the tournament/poll will also include a “none of the above” choice in case you think a goalie who’s not listed here and either currently playing in the NHL or not will be among the five goalies with the most wins during this period. Look for the link at the end of the column to cast your votes; but without further ado, here are the 18 contenders:

  Jake Allen (age = 28; signed through 2020-21 at $4.35M per season)

Once thought to be a surefire Tier 1 goalie, Allen has instead struggled with injuries and inconsistency, to the point where for now he’s lost his hold on the starting gig to Jordan Binnington (more on him below). With what they’re paying Allen, he should continue to get chances to recapture #1 netminder status; and who knows, perhaps if he connects the dots – and assuming Binnington doesn’t just steal the starting job away from him for good – Allen could become one of those netminders who finally hits his stride in his late 20s and then excels into his 30s.

  Frederick Andersen (age = 29; signed through 2020-21 at $5M per season)

If Andersen was a lock to stay in Toronto, then on paper it would be difficult not to vote for him, what with the Leafs arguably built to be one of the top teams the NHL over these next five years. But with Andersen only signed for two more seasons and the Leafs likely to be feeling a cap crunch in the coming years, it’s not impossible to think he might find himself on a new team for 2021-22; and if that happens, who knows if he’ll excel to the extent he is now.

  Jordan Binnington (age 25; signed through 2018-19 at $0.65M per season)

It’s not that Binnington wasn’t on anyone’s radar when the season began – he was a virtual nobody just over a month ago, with a grand total of one NHL appearance prior to this season and 146 AHL games for two different organizations. Fast forward to now, however, and he’s won 12 of his first 14 starts this season, with four shutouts and allowing more than two goals a grand total of twice. Is it more likely than not teams will find a way to adjust and he’ll come back to earth, ala Andrew Hammond a few years ago? Quite possibly; however, his beyond stellar play merits him at least being a voting choice here.

  Ben Bishop (age = 32; signed through 2022-23 at $4.916M per season)

One of the two oldest netminders on the list, Bishop has proven to be a great signing for the Stars and, unlike in his past, has managed to stay healthy for the most part. He’s the type who might not lead the league in wins for any given season but could be high enough on the list to end up within the top five when all is said and done.

  Devan Dubnyk (age = 32; signed through 2020-21 at $4.33M per season)

The other elder statesman on the list, Dubnyk benefits by playing a lot of games (he’s started the second most contests of any NHL netminder since 2014-15, behind only Braden Holtby – more on him below) and having no threat to take his job on the immediate horizon. The question is whether the Wild will opt to retain him in a couple of seasons when he’s a UFA and, if they do, how good the team will be given its ageing core.

  John Gibson (age = 25; signed through 2026-27 at – starting next season – $6.4M per season)

If winning was based on talent alone, Gibson likely would be a shoo-in for the top five. But what we cannot ignore is he’s had a history of injury issues and the Ducks look to be a team on the decline. While some goalies have played well enough to carry a team on their shoulders, as we’re seeing this season that might be too tall an order for Gibson despite how skilled he is.

  Carter Hart (age = 20; signed through 2020-21 at $0.73M per season)

Although always a highly touted prospect, Hart’s big splash came earlier than expected, resulting in him having been anointed the NHL’s next young goalie phenom. Even more importantly he’s already proven himself to be a true difference maker, with poise and maturity that wins him games often less so due to the team in front of him as much as notwithstanding them. Of course much the same could’ve been said of former Flyer upstart netminders like Brian Boucher and Antero Niittymaki, who began their careers with so much promise then quickly faltered. Plus, Philly has been known as the place that chews goalies up and spits them out, so Hart would need to defy those odds to be a true star netminder.

  Connor Hellebuyck (age = 25; signed through 2023-24 at $6.16M per season)

After inking a deal that, on paper, labelled him one of the league’s top netminders, Hellbuyck has taken somewhat of a step back this campaign. But the wins are still there, and this poll is solely about wins, not peripheral stats. With him inked to play for Winnipeg at least four of the next five seasons and the team seems poised to be a top squad for that entire time, the ingredients seem to be in place for him to be a wins stalwart.

  Braden Holtby (age = 29; signed through 2019-20 at $6.1M per season)

Surprisingly – at least to me – still only 29 years old, Holtby likely would be a clear pick if this was two seasons ago or even last year at this time. But with the exodus of Barry Trotz during the summer and Holtby getting a year older, he’s looked barely above average for most of this season. That being said, plenty of other goalies have suffered from a Stanley Cup hangover then rebounded to their formerly elite selves; and Holtby’s skill, combined with Washington likely to be a top team for at least a few more seasons, makes him a viable selection.

  Martin Jones (age = 29; signed through 2023-24 at $5.75M per season)

Think of Jones like you would Devan Dubnyk, only except three years younger. Lacking any near or even long-term threats to his spot as the top Sharks goalie, Jones looks poised to rack up wins. The big question is how good San Jose will be in the years to come, as their core is ageing and it’s not clear whether their younger players are poised to step in and keep the team elite enough to help Jones pile on the wins.

  Robin Lehner (age = 27; signed through 2018-19 at $1.5M per season)

What do you get when you have a player who’s always had talent and finally put his demons behind him, then couple that with the wisdom and tutelage of goalie whisperers Barry Trotz and Mitch Korn? You get the season Lehner is having, with a GAA and SV% among the league’s best. The problem is the same magic that Trotz and Korn are working on Lehner is also the cure for what ailed Thomas Greiss. With Greiss signed through next season, will Lehner be able to secure enough wins, and beyond that, keep his demons at bay? Time – and your votes – will tell.

  Jacob Markstrom (age = 29; signed through 2019-20 at $3.66M per season)

If you’re like me, you were surprised to see that Markstrom is 29, as it’s difficult not to think of him still as still a young prospect. But as he’s aged he’s found his game and the Canucks might be poised to do better – and sooner – as a team than many would’ve expected, all leading to Markstrom being a sneaky pick to do well in wins.

  Matt Murray (age = 24; signed through 2019-20 at $3.75M per season)

With his injuries and failure – thus far – to truly recapture his early magic, some are anointing Murray the next Cam Ward. Murray has put together stretches of play where he’s unbeatable, only to follow that with a few stinkers. Still only 24, he can likely work out the kinks in his game to be more consistent, unless of course injuries take their toll. And although the Pens are ageing, they still figure to be among the most successful teams in the NHL in the near term, so the recipe for Murray to earn wins is there.

  Carey Price (age = 31; signed through 2025-26 at $10.5M per season)

With by far the biggest contract among the voting choices, Price likely has the safest #1 netminder job in all of hockey. But now on the other side of 30 and after a couple of seasons of injuries, he doesn’t look like a former Vezina winner on some nights nowadays. Beyond that, although the Habs have made strides this season it’s not clear the team itself will be good enough for Price to pile on the wins – not unless he can get back to stealing games for them.

  Tuukka Rask (age = 31; signed through 2020-21 at $7M per season)

Another season, another case of early talk of Rask losing his skill followed by him silencing his critics with superb second-half play. If Rask was a couple years younger and signed for a few more seasons, he’d look to be a safe pick; however, at some point in the future he might not be able to recover from a slow start, and Boston might choose to let him walk as a UFA, in which case who knows if Rask will land on a team like the perennially strong Bruins.

  David Rittich (age = 26; signed through 2018-19 at $0.8M per season)

For a while, it was assumed Rittich’s hold on the Calgary crease was merely temporary until either he inevitably faltered or Mike Smith managed to find his game. Yet here we are in February and Rittich owns one of the best winning percentages of any netminder and appears to have staked an official claim as the #1 goalie on a Calgary team that’s poised to get better in the coming years. The wrinkle is Rittich is signed only through this season and has to show he’s more than a one-year wonder. But if he secures this #1 spot and his play continues to be comparable to what we’ve seen from him this season, the wins will surely pile up.

  Juuse Saros (age = 23; signed through 2020-21 at $1.5M per season)

As covered in my column last week, past precedent suggests that Saros should be – at worst – the 1B netminder for the Predators next season. And with his already apparent skill and Rinne’s advancing age, Saros could realistically step in and seize the reins even before Rinne’s deal runs out in 2021, in which case Saros could have no trouble earning wins on a Nashville team that is built to be a top contender for a number of years to come.

  Andrei Vasilevskiy (age = 24; signed through 2019-20 at $3.5M per season)

A top goalie on a top team – what’s not to like? But is Vas truly one of the best netminders in the NHL? Last season he hit a major wall in last third of the season, so he might be the opposite of Rask – a netminder who gets worse as the season drags on. There’s also the challenge of finding enough cap space to be able to re-sign him next summer without at the same time disrupting the strong skater core of the Lightning.

  **

There you have the choices – now it’s up to you to pick the five you believe will earn the most wins from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 campaign. To cast your vote, click here.

  **

Mailbag questions needed for next week

  Next week will be my monthly mailbag column. You can send me questions in one of two ways – (1) emailing them to admin@dobbersports.com with the subject line “Roos Mailbag”, or (2) as a private message to me (“rizzeedizzee”) from within the Dobberhockey Forums. See you next week!

      from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/fantasy-hockey-rick-roos/roos-lets-loose-battle-of-the-netminders/

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

Puck Daddy Countdown: Hockey's race problem, and the Beanpot!

Northeastern won its first Beampot in 30 years. (Getty)

6. Hockey’s race problem

Bit of a dust-up this weekend, as Colton Teubert, a first-round pick in 2008 who only played 24 NHL games and now is a low-scoring defenseman in Germany, called PK Subban “Monday.”

“Monday” of course is a double-secret racial slur — because “no one likes Mondays” — that Teubert claims not to have known was a double-secret racial slur. Turns out, everyone on Subban’s World Junior team called him “Monday” because no one liked him, or so the claim goes, so Teubert and Brendan Gallagher just call Subban that because that’s what Subban’s teammates have called him for years.

Which, okay, let’s give those two guys specifically the benefit of the doubt. I only know the “Monday” issue because of what was brought up in that above-linked Boston Globe story: A racist cop called a black Red Sox outfielder a Monday and started a small firestorm here in Boston a few years ago. So yeah, maybe Teubert and Gallagher didn’t know the term had racial undertones, but someone in a dressing room somewhere along the line — maybe even in that World Junior group — definitely did.

And I’ve said it before, but that kind of casual “Oh I didn’t know this racist thing I said or did was racist” vein that has been running through the hockey world for all too long. A lot of it is because there just aren’t a lot of people of color in the sport in general, but nonetheless, low-key racism isn’t helping solve that problem.

One need look no further at this problem than to consider that Black History Month, currently ongoing, has been kind of papered-over with Hockey Is For Everyone Month, which is a nice sentiment but not really the same thing. Yeah, the NHL’s version of Black History Month would just be trotting out Willie O’Ree again. And I know there just isn’t a big history of black people in the league to “celebrate” or whatever, but the fact that you can CTRL+F on the NHL.com “Hockey Is For Everyone Digest” and the term “Black History Month” doesn’t come up in 13 days of digests? That’s pathetic.

Because here’s the thing: Saying “It’s for everyone” will definitely come off as painting over Black History Month specifically. That a lot of teams are using Hockey is For Everyone to have Pride Nights is great. But that there is, again, no mention of Black History Month on the NHL’s official site seems like a real problem.

Hockey, unfortunately, has a real case of the I-didn’t-know-I-shouldn’t-say-Mondays.

5. Chicago Blackhawks

Losers of six in a row, Corey Crawford probably should be done for the year if he isn’t actually, and everyone seems to have a thousand-yard stare at this point. If they still felt there was a glimmer of hope, it seems like losing 6-1 to Arizona was a pretty good indicator that, no, it’s really over.

And that’s good, if we’re being honest. Not just because it’s nice to see this club get popped in the nose after all these years of success, but because the playoff runs the last two years maybe did a little more than they should have to convince the team things could flow with the status quo for another three or four years.

I think I wrote something earlier this season basically saying observers will still give them the benefit of the doubt going into next season — the loss of Crawford for a big chunk of the season certainly props up that idea — but if this team is being honest with itself, there needs to be some serious talk about next steps.

There are a lot of bad contracts still kicking around, both due to dollar value and age, and maybe people are now understanding how much this team has relied on Crawford, long underrated, over the last several years.

You wonder how much this team can actually do to change its fortunes, rather than sink deeper into mediocrity (or worse) over the next few years. People are starting to make noise about not only Brent Seabrook not being Worth It on this contract (he isn’t, hasn’t been, and never was), but also Jonathan Toews. And again, it’s like, “Yeah he was never a $10.5 million player,” but what were they gonna do, let him walk or traded him before he was a UFA? They probably should have, but Stan Bowman would have been ripped apart by a bloodthirsty mob.

So I dunno, if Bowman can find a buyer for any of his big-money guys this summer, don’t you have to pull the trigger? If that means offloading Kane, Toews, or even Keith (who’s very cheap by comparison), that’s probably still worth it for the long-term health of the organization. Not that it’d happen, but y’know.

4. Mike Smith is safe

It was looking, for a second there, like Mike Smith was gonna be out for a while.

Which, normally, you’d say “What’s the big deal?” But Smith is still somehow .921 this season (backup David Rittich is .927, of course) and really propping up the Flames’ playoff chances, against all reasonable expectation coming into the season.

But instead, Smith is only gonna be out for a handful of games. Given how narrow things are in the Pacific, even that could be bad news if Rittich can’t keep things together (Jon Gillies is his backup, and his AHL numbers this year are merely fine). But it’s a lot better than if he were going to be out, say, 10 or 15 games.

The Flames need every advantage, apparently, to stay in playoff contention. Which, maybe that’s whypeople are saying they should fire Glen Gulutzan, because their roster is otherwise very good. Having Smith miss only a handful of games will only help them.

And boy that’s a weird thing to say.

3. The McDonagh sweepstakes

I’m not so interested in what happens with Rick Nash because I think the team for him is probably going to overpay, and potentially for a pure rental. I like Nash as a player, but if he’s not sticking around long-term the destination is not as intriguing to me.

Ryan McDonagh, on the other hand, is probably still a top-20 defender in the league despite having a rough year (please, do not look at his underlyings) on a bad team. But unlike Nash he’s also signed for next season. One wonders who would trade for him — Boston? Tampa? — and what they’d have to give up. Nashville, constantly linked to Rick Nash all of a sudden, isn’t a destination for McDonagh but they’re very likely to be the team coming out of the West barring total disaster and a few big surprise upsets.

What’s interesting is that because the Rangers have a lot of desirable players and there are probably only four or five credible Cup contenders — most of them in the East — McDonagh is probably the most attractive option that’s going to be available. Everyone but Nashville needs blue line help, but would Boston or Pittsburgh prioritize that over help up front? That’s a coin flip.

2. The Leafs are streaking

The Leafs have won eight of nine but are still basically guaranteed to be the No. 3 team in their division. They’re third in the Atlantic but tied for fifth in the entire league. Tough bounce, but they can play with and beat any team in the league.

No coincidence, then, that the Leafs really started this run around the same time both Willy Nylander and Mitch Marner started heating up at long last. Nylander has 13 points in his last 10 games. Marner has 11 in the same stretch (though five of those came in one game against lowly Ottawa). They’re both probably going to end up around 60 points for the season now, if not a little more if they keep up the hot hand.

The Leafs’ real problem this year? Well it’s still the Polak thing. But the other problem was the lack of secondary scoring. Until these two kids started going off, some just-okay offensive seasons from James van Riemsdyk (lots of goals, few assists) and Nazem Kadri (a good amount of both) were all that kept the lights on while Auston Matthews (47 points in 48 games) was off the ice.

They’ll be in pretty good shape as long as Freddie Andersen can maintain his high, high, high level of play; he’s .931 since Nov. 4, after starting .895 in 13 games. But if they can add a legit second scoring punch for the long term here — and certainly they have the talent to do it — look out.

1. Northeastern

Seeing these nice boys go out and win their first Beanpot in 30 years was very fun.

Canucks prospect Adam Gaudette had a hat trick! Flyers prospect Cayden Primeau was excellent in net! Blues prospect Nolan Stevens scored this great goal!

Northeastern's Nolan Stevens evened the score with this power-play goal in the first period. Watch BU and Northeastern battle in the 2018 Beanpot final on NESN. pic.twitter.com/h9WTVZ8rQc

— NESN (@NESN) February 13, 2018

The Beanpot is finally good. I love college hockey!

(Not ranked this week: Not-watching Olympic hockey.

The women’s and men’s tournaments are now formally underway, and that’s nice, but I also really don’t want to be waking up at 7 a.m. to watch a bunch of AHL players, y’know. I’m certainly not staying up to watch the ones that start at 2:40 a.m.

However, folks, there’s a USA/Canada women’s game at 10 tonight, and if you’re not clearing your scheduled for that one, I dunno what to tell ya!)

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All statistics via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

[thrashermaxey]

20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts

Every Sunday, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

  1. Those drafting Max Pacioretty and hoping for a bounce-back have been discouraged with the fact that he has recorded just two points (both goals) over his first 10 games as a Golden Knight. Now that he is sidelined with a day-to-day injury, fantasy owners might be in the unenviable position of deciding whether to cut bait. Obviously, it’s more ideal if you can bench him or place him on IR (if/when he is eligible) should he need some more time to become acclimatized to Vegas.

The fact is, though, that Pacioretty has been mediocre for over a season now. In terms of points per game since the start of the 2017-18 season, Patches isn’t even among the top 150 (minimum 70 games played). Players with a similar points-per-game-played total include Kevin Hayes, Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Labanc, Alexander Wennberg, and Bryan Rust – all players that were drafted long after Pacioretty in single-season leagues. That’s simply not getting it done, particularly in shallow leagues where a higher-scoring option likely resides on the waiver wire.

Things could get better for Patches in Vegas. He should still be on the first power-play unit once he returns. Paul Stastny will also return from injury at some point. And maybe, just maybe, he even cracks the top line somehow. But when someone in the Forum inquired about dropping Patches for Anders Lee (among other choices he listed), I said I was fine with that. So, if you're in a shallow league, go ahead and make the move if you need to. (oct31)

  2. I think Brock Nelson’s value receives a boost with John Tavares gone. His ice time is up nearly four minutes per game, and he’s consistently playing with better quality linemates, in particular Anders Lee. In fact, I have enough faith in him that I’ve added him in one of my leagues. (nov2)

  3. Mikko Koskinen, who I believe is the only NHL goalie I’ve ever seen with a number in the teens, posted a 40-save shutout on Thursday and his third win of the season in as many games on Saturday. This is yet another situation in which the backup now has better numbers than the starter. Cam Talbot has played at least 65 games over the past two seasons, but of concern to fantasy owners is the fact that his struggles from last season have carried over to this season. In fact, his save percentage has gotten even worse. Talbot shouldn’t lose the starting job outright but if Koskinen is the answer as a solid backup, I wonder if Talbot’s games played total drops to somewhere in the 50s. (nov2)

  4. You may recall that Pontus Aberg was picked up off waivers on October 1 by the Ducks after being a somewhat surprising cut from the Oilers – Edmonton previously acquired him during last season’s deadline because the Predators couldn’t find room for him. Since the waiver claim, all Aberg has done is match his goal total from all of last season (53 games) over the past few days.

If you drafted Aberg as a sleeper, it would have been because of the outside chance that he would receive the prized Connor McDavid golden ticket. Now he’s on Anaheim’s top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell, which isn’t quite McDavid but it’s much better than what he’s used to. If still available, he’s worth an add in deeper formats. (oct31)

  5. Both Keith Yandle and Evgeni Dadonov have been impressive for the Panthers early on this season. Yandle is up to 12 points in 11 contests. That puts him in a tie for sixth in defenseman scoring. Dadonov, meanwhile, just extended his point streak to eight games and 10 points. The 29-year-old is clicking along to the tune of 13 points in 11 games. He’s seeing all of his ice next to Sasha Barkov and making many people eat crow who figured the addition of Mike Hoffman would diminish his returns. (nov3)

  6. As for Hoffman now has a nine-game point streak with exactly one point in each of those games. He has taken 27 shots over his last four games and leads the Panthers with 42. His fantasy stock may have fallen because of the circumstances surrounding his departure from Ottawa and concern over a reduced role in Florida, but so far he has thrived in Florida with six goals and nine points in eleven games. (nov2)

  7. Sophomore forward Brock Boeser has been hampered early this season by a nagging groin injury which has taken the fizz out of his speed and shot. He may not be 100 percent just yet but he'll get points playing with EP40, and when he is fully healthy, watch out. The young Canuck is up to four goals and 11 points in 13 games. (nov3)

  8. Jason Pominville won’t ever forget his 1000th game, not just for the pregame ceremony but also for what happened on the ice. Pominville scored two goals and added an assist while taking six shots on goal on Saturday. This isn’t just a one-off for Pominville, either. After a slow start that saw him record just one point over his first seven games, Pommer is scorching hot with 13 points (7g-6a) over his last seven games. As long as his linemates are Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, he deserves to be added in many formats.

Pominville can be a very streaky scorer, though. Last season, he scored 11 points over his first nine games and ended the season with six points over his last seven games. But during a stretch in January and February, Pominville went 17 games without a point. You will probably need to bench him or drop him outright once the signs of another dry spell appear. (nov4)

  9. The Juuse Saros era in Nashville will just have to wait a little longer, if it happens at all. Pekka Rinne has signed a two-year, $10 million extension to remain with the Predators. This contract could potentially keep Rinne in Nashville for the rest of his career.

Both Rinne and Saros are now locked up until the end of the 2020-21 season, which would make Rinne 38 and Saros 26 by the time both contracts end. So, if you’ve been stashing Saros in the hopes that Rinne would not be re-signed, this is a bit of a blow. Unless he is traded, Saros should continue to be one of the league’s top backups and at least a streaming option every time he starts. (nov4)

  10. Dylan Strome recorded just his first assist and third point of the season on Friday – not exactly the breakout many were hoping for from the 21-year-old Coyote. Granted, he's not getting the even-strength deployment you'd like to see but he is seeing over 50 percent of the team's power play time. The now-or-never period is approaching for the former third overall pick. (nov3)

  11. The Lightning re-signed soon-to-be unrestricted free agent and underdog champion, Yanni Gourde, to a six-year deal worth 5.166 million per season. The 26-year-old is a lesson in dedication. The undrafted forward has produced at every level and earned himself a shot at the big time.

Since being there, he's been a terrific swiss army knife on the Cup-contending squad. Over the past two seasons, he ranks sixth in WAR according to Evolving-Hockey. He produces at a terrific point-per-60 clip, especially at even-strength. His 2.731 ESP/60 last season ranked 22nd in the league.

I love this deal. Gourde can play all three forward positions, he's a great even-strength producer, and he's worked his bag off to get it. (nov3)

  12. In case you picked Ryan Donato as a sleeper and you missed it this past week, he’s been officially demoted to the AHL. Those of you in single-season formats may have already moved on anyway, considering that Donato had just a goal and no assists in 11 games. He’ll come back stronger once he receives more playing time in the AHL, so you’ll still want to retain him in your keeper league. (nov2)

  13. Flames’ Mike Smith may have earned a win on Thursday but it covered up another poor outing. Smith allowed five goals on 26 shots, but if not for a five-goal outburst by the Flames in the third period, fantasy owners who started Smith would have come home completely empty-handed. I think we see some more of David Rittich, at least in the short term. Smith: .871 Sv%. Rittich: .927 Sv%. Move Smith to your bench until he figures it out. This has to be a full-blown goalie controversy in Cowtown. (nov2)

  14. I like the poll questions on the DobberHockey Facebook page and try to answer them whenever I can. One of the more thought-provoking questions was which player is better: Bo Horvat or Dylan Larkin? Although I chose Horvat (my Canucks bias, of course), Larkin’s recent production should grab your attention. With 15 points (6g-9a) in 14 games, he is easily the Red Wings’ leading scorer. Larkin may have to carry the Wings on his back as they continue along their rebuild. (nov2)

  15. Is there anything that can stop Elias Pettersson right now? The kid is up to nine goals and 15 points in just nine games. At this point, if you think he’s a flash in the pan, then you need to watch him and you’ll be convinced otherwise. Let’s just say he’s far surpassed what I usually draft in the 15th round (176th overall) in a single-season fantasy league.

I decided to look up Yahoo’s Trade Market feature to find out what Pettersson is worth on the trade market. Pettersson was traded 1-for-1 for the following players: Jordan Staal, Rasmus Ristolainen, Jonathan Marchessault, Leon Draisaitl, and Aleksander Barkov. The Staal deal seemed like highway robbery, but the other deals seemed fair. Ristolainen can provide help on D in certain multicategory leagues, while the last three are proven commodities that should be able to reach 70 points (barring injury). So, if trading Pettersson, I would aim for about that caliber of player.

With that in mind, I decided to accept the offer that was presented to me last Tuesday: Pettersson for Jack Eichel. As much as I would like to marvel at the super sleeper sitting on my roster all season, I pocketed the closer-to-sure point-per-game production and crossed my fingers that top-50 pick Eichel doesn’t fall victim to the injury bug again. (oct31)

P.S.: If you don’t think I made the right decision on trading Pettersson for Eichel one for one (hello, Cam Robinson), I will mention that this is a non-keeper league with no money involved. So, I only have to live with my decision for the rest of the year and I don’t jeopardize my kids’ college fund in any way. Or, maybe it won’t be that bad of a decision. We’ll see. This kind of thing makes the game more fun and discussion livelier, though. (nov4)

  16. Another two goals for Timo Meier, including the overtime winner, against Philly on Saturday. With 11 goals on the season, Meier is now tied for the league lead with four other players. Meier has recorded points in 10 of his last 11 games and appears to be on the verge of a true breakout. Even though his goal-scoring pace might cool off a little (23.9 SH%), the signs were there. Meier took over 200 shots last season while scoring 21 goals, and he’s been on a solid scoring unit with Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl. (nov4)

  17. Auston Matthews’ injury has to be a little bit concerning for Leafs fans and fantasy owners. This is back-to-back seasons with a serious shoulder injury, to each shoulder, on top of Matthews’s well-known back issues going back to Switzerland. At this point, he’s one of the truly elite players in the game and we all hope that injuries don’t begin to derail what was starting to look like a Hall of Fame career. Let’s hope that these are just a couple bumps in the road rather than a sign of things to come. (oct30)

  18. Vladislav Namestnikov’s fantasy value beefed up in the first quarter last season when he played with Nikita Kucherov in Tampa Bay, and at this point it’s pretty clear that he’s a complementary player. Great to have if he’s complimenting the right player but there is nobody on the Rangers who fits the bill. If he’s traded to Pittsburgh and plays with Evgeni Malkin, then sign me up. But otherwise, I just don’t care about this guy in any league format. (oct29)

  19. Speaking of Malkin, I held onto that guy for a dozen years and he won me a couple of trophies in that particular keeper league. But the last few years he had been killing me with injuries in the final months, so I traded him last summer (2017). Naturally that means he never gets hurt again and is back to his dominant self. (oct29)

The dude is feelin' it. He missed four games last season and hasn't sat out yet in 2018-19. At 32 years of age, his propensity for injury should be ramping up. However, he may be going all Benjamin Button on us and turning his Achilles heel into a strength. If Geno can be a consistently healthy player, his value, even in keeper leagues, is through the roof. Near-generational players – and that's exactly what he is – have a prolonged shelf life. I won't be betting against him replicating a near-100-point-pace for the foreseeable future. (nov3)

  20. I am not, and never have been, a fan of Los Angeles being a landing spot for Ilya Kovalchuk. I had picked him up last January with the expectation that he would sign somewhere and was disappointed at his eventual destination. But, that being said, I am certainly comfortable with him getting to 60 points this season. Even with a slow start I didn’t think anything of it. He’ll have his hot and cold moments and fall above and below that mark, but ultimately I think that’s where his destination lies. Something to keep in mind if he ever gets ahead of that pace by a large amount – if you own him that would be the time to shop him. (oct29)

  Have a good week, folks!!

  from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts-48/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Healthy Scratches, Hot Goalies (Oct 17)

Healthy Scratches, Hot Goalies, plus more…

First, a quick thought about the Mike Matheson two-game suspension: I never thought I’d write this, but the NHL issuing a suspension here is a step in the right direction. Comparing apples to oranges as well as a very small sample size, the NHL generally seems to be tougher on suspensions this season – case in point the Tom Wilson 20-game suspension. In the past I know this would have gotten completely ignored and shrugged off as “part of the game,” but this matters when you consider the careers of star players cut short by head injuries (Lindros, Kariya, Lafontaine, etc.) and what we now know about head injuries. There have been a ton of takes about the hit and the Canucks’ (lack of) response afterward, so I won’t dive into this one any further.

So who took over Elias Pettersson’s spot on the first-unit power play on Tuesday? No one! The Canucks didn’t receive a single power play against Pittsburgh. In fact, there was only one penalty in the entire game.

But there was something happening with goaltending in this game, specifically Canucks’ goaltending. In case you haven’t noticed, Anders Nilsson started his third consecutive game. He also earned his third consecutive win, posting a 1.67 GAA and .943 SV% over that span. Yes, I’m as surprised as you are. And yes, I’d expect him to start the Canucks’ next game Thursday in Winnipeg, which will be a tall order for the 6’6” goalie. But if you need to ride a hot hand in net, he’s worth a gamble. Remember that after last season, he backstopped Sweden to a World Hockey Championship. So there’s that.

The more long-term question is whether Nilsson will unseat Jacob Markstrom as the de facto number one in Van City. I’d say that Nilsson would need more consistency than we’re used to with him before I would proclaim that he will be the guy two months from now. He could also easily force a timeshare with Markstrom, which might be the more likely scenario here. The Canucks are playing well right now, but their defense is the envy of no team. So over an entire season, I still wouldn’t consider either Nilsson or Markstrom to be a must-own.

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You may have heard of this by now since it was Monday’s news, but Brandon Saad could be a healthy scratch for Thursday’s game. As Mike Clifford mentioned, Saad has scored just 12 goals in his last 76 games last season, and he has not scored a goal in five games this season. Saad was demoted to the fourth line on Saturday alongside Marcus Kruger and David Kampf – not exactly Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane. Think the Hawks would like to have a do-over on that Artemi Panarin trade?

I mentioned that you should probably hold Kevin Shattenkirk in spite of his healthy scratch last week because of his 50+ point upside on the blueline, but I’m not going to tell you to do the same with Saad. Unless you play in a very deep league, Saad is most likely replaceable given the number of available forward scoring options. Saad could very well become fantasy relevant again at some point, but it’s been a calendar year since he’s been able to produce at a 50-point pace.

Speaking of Rangers and healthy scratches, Pavel Buchnevich was a healthy scratch for Tuesday’s game against Colorado. Buchnevich is already in new coach David Quinn’s doghouse, playing just 11 minutes on the Rangers’ fourth line on Saturday.  

David Quinn answered a lot of questions about Pavel Buchnevich. The gist of it was they need more out of him consistently, he needs to be harder to play against, more willing to pay a price to score, and that skill alone isn’t enough.

— Dan Rosen (@drosennhl) October 16, 2018

If you own Buchnevich and are wondering whether to drop him, it appears that the scratch isn’t due to a lack of scoring (unlike Saad). Buchnevich had scored two goals and added an assist in his five games, which isn’t drop-worthy on its own. In fact, Buchnevich could rebound from this and become a more complete player who competes harder, assuming the coach’s message gets through. If you’re in a league where every game played matters and there’s an equal or better option, then make the move. Otherwise, I’d be fine with holding here.

On a side note, if you’re a Shattenkirk and/or Buchnevich owner, you’ll know by now that David Quinn doesn’t care about your fantasy team. I say that facetiously, though. Sarcasm doesn’t translate well over the internet sometimes.

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Tampa Bay has a very favorable schedule with three games still remaining this week (vs. DET, @MIN, @CHI), so there’s still plenty left to gain this week with a Tyler Johnson pickup. In Tuesday’s game against the Canes, Johnson scored three goals with a plus-2 and six shots on goal. Reuniting Johnson with old Triplets linemates Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat has proven favorable. In fact, part of me wishes they had never been split up. With his hat trick, Johnson now has five points in his last two games. And he’s owned in only 30 percent of Yahoo leagues.

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Let’s just rename them the Edmonton McDavids. Connor McDavid scored two goals and added two assists in the Oilers’ 5-4 come-from-behind victory over the Jets. In case you missed it, McDavid recorded points on all of the Oilers’ first nine goals of the season before the string was snapped with Darnell Nurse’s overtime goal. Obviously McDavid should be in your lineup every time he plays, but his magic has started to rub off on linemates Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3 A on Tuesday) and Ty Rattie (1 G and 5 SOG on Tuesday).

In that same game, Nikolaj Ehlers finally recorded his first point of the season (an assist). In a head-scratcher of a move, someone in one of my leagues (and a fairly deep one at that) decided to drop Ehlers. I decided to use a waiver claim on him (I was 5th), but lost out to someone with higher priority. Moral of story: It’s way too early for something like this to be happening. Ehlers has scored 25 goals and 60 points in back-to-back seasons, and he’s on a line with Patrik Laine. Some fantasy owners place more emphasis than they should on the first few games of the season, so this might be a great time to attempt to buy low.

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The Devils remain undefeated, thanks to two red hot players:

Kyle Palmieri scored again, giving him seven goals on the season, which is tied for second in the NHL. He’s actually cooled off, as this is the first game in which he did not score two goals. He will of course cool off. But he’s playing on the Devils’ top line, so it’s safe to say that he should be owned in just about every league format at this point.

Keith Kinkaid stopped all 24 shots he faced in earning the shutout over Dallas – his second shutout of the season. Even though Cory Schneider is still recovering from a hip injury, has Kinkaid earned the starting job for good? Even though Schneider has the larger paycheque with the longer term, this job could be Kinkaid’s to lose even when Schneider returns. Either way, Kinkaid is the perfect third goalie to own right now.

Even though the Stars were shutout by the Devils, Jamie Benn still recorded 7 PIM for his owners that count that stat. Included was this fight with Miles Wood.

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I’ll say this about Benn: He’s a GREAT fighter. I saw Benn in a fight with 6’7” Nikita Tryamkin in a live game a couple of seasons ago. He definitely held his own with the tall Russian.

*

Although Semyon Varlamov hasn’t earned wins over his last two starts, he’s exceeded my expectations over his first five games. Over each of his five starts (the first three being wins), he hasn’t posted a save percentage lower than .927. Meanwhile, Philipp Grubauer allowed four goals in his only start. It’s early and the goaltending duties could still shift more toward the upstart Grubauer as the season wears on. But Varlamov is showing no signs of letting up, keeping in the Avalanche in games where they have allowed 40 shots or more. After a shaky preseason, Varly is proving that there’s still something left as he plays for a starting job somewhere next season.

While on the Avs, I should mention that Nathan MacKinnon scored again, giving him goals in each of his first five games. He’s simply continuing where he left off last season.

*

It took him six games, but William Karlsson scored his first goal of the season on Tuesday. His shooting accuracy (9 percent) is still way down from his 23 percent from last season, so the scoring pace should pick up. Still, he’s going to have a very, very tough time repeating last season’s 43 goals. To his credit, Karlsson already has six assists, so maybe we see more of a playmaking version of Wild Bill this season while linemate Jonathan Marchessault focuses more on goals.

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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-healthy-scratches-hot-goalies-oct-17/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Hoffman, Pacioretty, Couture, Bozak, Ferland, and Roussel – July 12

  In just three weeks, the 2018-19 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide will be released. Be sure to head to the Dobber Shop to grab your copy! The guide is updated periodically until the season begins to reflect trades, injuries, and new line combinations, so even if you’re early, you won’t miss out on up-to-date information.

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Dominik Bokk signed his entry-level contract with the Blues on Wednesday and it seems he’ll be headed back to Sweden for the 2018-19 season. With the bevy of signings and trades St. Louis has made in the last few weeks, there’s no real need to rush the sniping prospect into the NHL. I know dynasty owners are going to be disappointed but it’s the right call.

In talking with Cam Robinson around draft time, Bokk was a guy he mentioned among the non-elite to keep an eye on. St. Louis evidently thought the same thing as they traded up to draft him. The more I read about him, the more impressed I am with him though it seems the hockey community is kind of split on him. Some saw him as a mid-first pick, some didn’t see the potential. I’m starting to be a believer, though the usual disclaimer applies: I’m not a prospects writer nor do I scout them. I rely on the excellent work of people like Cam.

You can read Bokk's Dobber Prospects profile here. 

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Nothing fantasy hockey related, but a pretty fun read from Adam Gretz at Pro Hockey Talk about the Jaromir Jagr trade out of Pittsburgh all those years ago.

*

Just to reiterate something about the Florida Panthers: one of Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov will not be on the top PP unit this year (for the most part). Now, Dadonov did not really need a bevy of PP points to perform well last year, so he can still be a 55- or 60-point guy without that slotting. If Hoffman is to top 30 goals for the first time in his career, though, he does need those minutes. Keep that in mind when draft season approaches.

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Something I noticed while trying to figure out San Jose’s line combinations for next year: Logan Couture has seen is individual shot-on-goal rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five decline every year since the lockout season. In 2017-18, he ranked 170th out of 367 forwards with at least 500 minutes in shots/60 minutes. Five years ago at the end of the lockout year, he was 29th out of 339 forwards with at least 300 minutes. In total, his shots/60 has declined about 34 percent over the last five seasons. We expect decline as a player ages but he’s still in his twenties and that decline came largely from age 24 through age 27.

Line mates? Role? Being more selective (his two highest shooting percentage seasons are the last two years)? Regardless, it’s going to be hard for him to repeat 30 goals if his shot totals don’t grow. 

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We’re hitting the quiet part of the off season. As far as trades are concerned, it seems inevitable both Max Pacioretty and Erik Karlsson are moved, it’s just a matter of when. We can probably add Jeff Skinner to that list as well. There are some cases going through arbitration from RFAs deserving of big contracts like Mark Stone, Jason Zucker, and William Karlsson. The signing of Patrick Maroon (you can read the fantasy impact here) basically means all the big-name UFAs are signed. In all, outside a few trades, there’s not much left until training camps hit.

As a side note, something I realized while writing these Ramblings: the Western Conference as a whole, outside of St. Louis and Calgary, didn’t really do a whole lot this off season, did they?

Chicago’s biggest signing might be Cam Ward.

Colorado signed some depth with Ian Cole and Matt Calvert.

The biggest addition/signing between Dallas, Minnesota, Nashville, and Winnipeg, four teams with Cup aspirations, is probably Blake Comeau? I guess Valeri Nichushkin though he’s really just a returning player.

The Kings signed Ilya Kovalchuk which may not be that big of a get depending how he performs.

Vancouver… well we’ll leave Vancouver alone. They know what they did.

Arizona added a few forwards but Alex Galchenyuk may be the only player of serious impact, and even that’s uncertain.

The Blues and Flames made pretty significant changes while most largely stood pat or handed out tens of millions of dollars to fourth liners. I suppose Erik Karlsson could change that equation if he does land somewhere like Dallas.

On the topic of UFAs, I think it’s worth reviewing the landing spots of some of the bigger names in new destinations either via trade or free agency. Too often, fantasy owners (present company included) just hand-wave a player going to a new team who seems to be just going into the same role on a new team and assume constant production.

Here are a few players whose production probably declines with their new team.

  Tyler Bozak

Bozak’s signing is solid for the Blues in terms of getting them a true third-line centre who can facilitate for their scoring wingers. In terms of fantasy hockey, owners need to realize that Bozak, going into his age-32 season, has one 50-point campaign (2016-17) and one 20-goal campaign (2014-15).

He’s going to a situation in St. Louis where his role at five-on-five won’t change much – third line in a sheltered role with talented wingers – but he will probably lose significant power-play minutes; Schenn-Schwartz-Tarasenko will eat a lot of minutes on a top unit while Ryan O’Reilly likely figures as the fourth. Losing just 30 seconds on the power play per game, which is a conservative estimate, will see him lose 3-4 points off his total from last year assuming constant goal rates. It’s that double-whammy where not only does his overall production decline, but his PP production as well, reducing his value in multiple roto categories.

He’s never been a multi-category performer so Bozak is basically only to be drafted in deep leagues or leagues that count face-offs. Though he’s going to what appears to be a very good St. Louis team going into 2018-19, the loss of power-play time is going to be a hit to what was already his meagre fantasy value.

  Micheal Ferland

As I mentioned in a review of the free agent signings a couple weeks ago, we’ve probably seen the best fantasy season we’re going to see from Ferland unless we see some dramatic changes to the Carolina roster. Last year saw a big jump in five-on-five ice time per game, garnering 1:45 more per game than his previous career-high. While the uncertainty around Jeff Skinner’s situation means there are likely more changes coming to this Carolina roster, as it stands right now, Teuvo Teravainen and Justin Williams are ahead of Ferland on the right side. They also just drafted a potential star in Andrei Svechnikov. If Svechnikov shows well early in the season, Ferland could find himself on the fourth line.

Now, Ferland is a left-handed shot even though he often played the right wing often in Calgary. But even if they moved him to the left side, he’s still behind Sebastian Aho and Skinner (for now). Brock McGinn had a solid season last year, Valentin Zykov showed promise down the stretch, and they added Jordan Martinook. If Skinner is moved and they don’t add another left winger, maybe Ferland ends up as the second-line left winger. But Skinner would have to be traded, the team would have to decide to move him to the left wing, and he’d have to outperform a few players to maintain that role. His best-case right now is that he’s moved around the middle-six for the Hurricanes, which is still a huge downgrade from spending nearly three-quarters of a season on a top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan.

Without top power-play minutes, which he won’t get, and top-line slotting, which he also won’t get, it’s very, very hard to see Ferland repeating 20 goals and 40 points. He can still be fine with a 15-15 season in leagues that count hits, but this is a serious downgrade for him.

  Antoine Roussel

I suppose no one drafts Roussel for point production. He’s drafted for triple-digit penalty minute and hit totals. And his shooting percentage is going to rebound from the 5.9 percent he shot last year, a far cry from his 12.7 percent shooting for his career going into the 2017-18 season.

All the same, anyone not playing on the top line for the Canucks is going to have a hard time scoring this year. There are a lot of hopes pinned on the likes of Elias Pettersson and Adam Gaudette but for now they’re still unproven rookies. In his last decent offensive season, Roussel was spending significant minutes with Tyler Seguin. I can’t imagine he gets a real shot with Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser.

Again, Roussel is going to spend time with unproven rookies or someone like Brandon Sutter. That’s with mediocre (at best) puck-moving defencemen behind them which may or may not include Chris Tanev in the near future. Despite being a rat on the ice, he’s an effective player. The problem is he may not get the same chance in Vancouver that he did at times in Dallas. A 25-point season would be a huge win. Though, as mentioned above, he’s not really drafted in fantasy for his point totals.

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Though the rumours for years have been that Max Pacioretty is on his way out the door, M-A Godin of The Athletic says that a trade is going to happen soon, given that the team will not negotiate a contract extension with him. It seems the tenure of one of the top goal scorers in a generation of the team’s history is over.

That’s not hyperbole, either. Though he’s not near the top of the franchise list in total goals scored, he did have one of the best peaks in team history. He was late to the NHL and suffered injuries, so his first full season was 2011-12 at the age of 23. In the six seasons from the age of 23 to the age of 28, he scored 189 goals in 439 games, or 0.43 goals per game. That is the highest goals per game mark of any Habs player since the mid-1980s. Quite literally, Montreal fans waited nearly three decades for a goal scorer as consistent and prolific as Pacioretty.

Wherever he ends up, hopefully he’s embraced by his new fan base. During his peak, Pacioretty was among the top wingers in the league and 2017-18 saw a decline due to injury. If he’s healthy when he returns, his new team will get a tried-and-true top-line left winger.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-hoffman-couture-bozak-ferland-and-roussel-july-12/

[thrashermaxey]

Cage Match Tournament 2018 – Breakout Players (Week 2)

Welcome to the second of what will be at least three Summer Cage Match Tournaments on breakout skaters. By your votes last week, Mitch Marner is the player who, despite never having previously scored over 75 points (or above a 75-point full season pace), is most likely to produce at a point-per-game level or better during this upcoming season.

Cage Match Tournament #2 – Breakout Tier 2 Forwards

The week it’s time to focus on second-tier forwards (i.e., those who have a career best of 55-65 points (or a 55-65 point scoring pace)), to vote on which will improve upon his/their career best by at least ten points in this upcoming season. The 14 choices (15, counting the “none of the above” choice) are listed below – once again in alphabetical order – along with their previous career high in single-season scoring.

Voting Rules and Guidelines

Like last week, you can vote for as many or as few players as you want – just be sure every player you’re voting for is someone you realistically see as someone who’ll finish ten or more points beyond his previous career best in scoring or scoring pace. A difference from last week is Band-Aid Boy status and injury history are very key, since unless a player suits up for enough games it’s much less likely he’ll be able to best his previous career high by ten.

Beyond that, and as also was the case last week, make sure to vote with your head more so than your heart. That means you should mainly bear in mind objective factors which will affect a player’s scoring, like his contract status, likelihood of being traded during the season, and individual/team situation. Of course you can still use instinct and hunches; but keep in mind your fellow Dobberites will look at the results for crowdsourced fantasy guidance, so don’t – for example – vote for someone for “good karma” simply because he’s on your team or not for someone else because he’s on the squad of your chief rival. The idea is to enjoy yourself, but also have the results be meaningful.

Once again voting will take place in the Dobberhockey forums. I’ll put a direct link at the bottom of the column. Now without further ado, here are your voting choices (in alphabetical order):

Kyle Connor (Previous career high scoring pace = 61 points)

At age 21, Connor was given keys to the Winnipeg offensive castle, with a regular spot on the top line and PP1. He showed he belonged and not only never had a prolonged poor stretch (posting double digit points each quarter) but saved his best for last, with 19 points in his final 23 regular season games (albeit only 10 in 17 playoff contests). Entering 2018-19 Connor’s “spot” still looks to be his to lose; the question is whether he’ll get better from here (and, if so, when), stay at this level, or suffer a sophomore slump to cause him to yield all-important playing time at even strength and with the man advantage to other Jets forwards, such as………

Nikolaj Ehlers (Previous career high scoring pace = 64 points)

After a 64 point rookie output, many had Ehlers pegged for 70+ points last season with a chance at a huge breakout. Instead, he regressed and landed at 60 points. It’s not difficult to explain why – two words: Kyle Connor. Connor’s presence cost Ehlers nearly 90 seconds of total ice time per game, with a third of the lost time coming on the man advantage. The question becomes whether Ehlers will have to continue to play under these limitations, since with his talent if given more ice time and a larger role he not only might best his career high by ten but could surge all the way to point-per-game output.

Alex Galchenyuk (Previous career high scoring pace = 59 points)

Before the June trade bringing him to Arizona, it would’ve been difficult to picture Galchenyuk doing much better for 2018-19 than the 51 points he posted last season. After all, despite a litany of criticisms and second guessing regarding seemingly all aspects of his effort and play, he ended up with a career high in PP ice time per game and saw similar overall ice time as when he posted his previous career best. On the upstart Coyotes, he should see more minutes and be leaned on for heavy scoring. And let’s not forget – before being injured during 2016-17, he had emerged with 22 points in his first 22 games, so the talent for top level production is there.

Yanni Gourde (Previous career high scoring pace = 64 points)

Not only did Gourde scoff at the concept of a rookie wall, he surprised many (this writer included) by not faltering after veteran Ondrej Palat returned, finishing with 38 points in his final 42 games. Yet one has to wonder if we might’ve already seen the best we’ll get from Gourde, unless he finds a way to do better than barely 16:00 per game and a tad over a third of Tampa’s available PP minutes he saw in 2017-18. And a very lofty 11.41% team shooting percentage at 5×5 doesn’t help quell concerns that his 64 points resulted from unsustainable good luck. Still, it’s tough to bet against Gourde after such a superb second half and with ice time that was low in part due to early season games well below his season average.

Bo Horvat (Previous career high scoring pace = 56 points)

Although Vancouver might be in for offensive struggles in the post-Sedin aftermath, Horvat should be given every chance to succeed. For a while there was concern he’d become Jonathan Toews 2.0 in fantasy, saddled with ample SH duty and being forced to play shut down defense while still trying to generate offense. But last season his percentage of time spent on the ice during the man advantage rose considerably (57%, up from 39% in 2016-17) while the opposite was the case on the PK (29% of the team’s SH minutes, down from 40% in 2016-17). If this trend continues and the Canucks are able to generate enough offense, Horvat should have a great shot at a big jump in his production.

Evander Kane (Previous career high scoring pace = 63 points)

As much attention as was paid to Kane’s 2017-18, we can’t lose sight of the fact that it wasn’t even his statistically best season. That being said, he did perform quite well when he arrived in San Jose, with 15 points in his final 18 games; and then he opted to sign with the Sharks rather than test the open market, where he may well have been able to sign for a higher price tag. It may be difficult to envision Kane posting 73 points, what with his tendency to take games off and get hurt, plus without the motivation of having to play well enough to earn his next contract; however, the talent is most certainly there.

Dylan Larkin (Previous career high scoring pace = 63 points)

Last season alone Larkin posted 16 more points than in his previous 116 games, placing him right back in the good graces of poolies who’d worried he might’ve been a flash in the pan. His 20 points in his final 24 games is a positive sign that 2018-19 could be even better; however, there’s still the issue of him never having posted more than eight PPPts in a season nor having taken the ice for 50% of his team’s time with the man advantage. Beyond that, Detroit has the makings of a team which will yet again struggle to score. Still, Larkin put the team on his shoulders last season and could do even more for 2018-19, which just so happens to be his magical fourth year.

J.T. Miller (Previous career high scoring pace = 58 points)

Following his trade to the Lightning, Miller acquitted himself to his new team right away and the results (20 points (11 goals) in his final 22 games) put equally wide smiles on the faces of both Lightning fans and those poolies who had owned Miller since day one and had seen him spin his wheels in New York. As great as the Tampa’s offense once again figures to be, and even with a fat new five-year contract in his back pocket, Miller could have difficulty seeing his points total rise enough to be ten better than last season’s career best scoring pace.

William Nylander (Previous career high scoring pace = 61 points)

Why should we expect Nylander to break out this season, since after all he didn’t manage to improve from his first full campaign despite playing nearly all his shifts with young star Auston Matthews? For one, Matthews missed a chunk of time last season, and a full year alongside Matthews should alone up Nylander’s total. But also the signing of John Tavares will create two powerful lines for the Leafs and, in turn, force teams not to necessarily put their best units against Matthews and Nylander. Also of note is it’s still only Nylander’s third full season, making a chance at a breakout more likely than had he passed his magical fourth season.

Kyle Palmieri (Previous career high scoring pace = 58 points)

With 18 points, including ten on the PP, in his final 22 games, Palmieri established himself as a weapon for the Devils to deploy alongside Taylor Hall at even strength or with the man advantage. Still only 27, Palmieri should have at least a couple of seasons to improve before slowing down due to age. The key with Palmieri is his Band-Aid Boy status, since to get your vote he needs to put up 67+ points and that, of course, requires him to stay healthy for the season. And considering he’s played in 71+ games only twice in his career, that might be a stretch.

Nick Schmaltz (Previous career high scoring pace = 54 points)

Thumbing his nose at a sophomore slump, Schmaltz instead saw his scoring rate spike while becoming fixture on a line with Patrick Kane. Schmaltz also was consistent through the season, which in his case meant 11-15 points in each quarter. But that came with upwards of 18 minutes per game and taking the ice for half of Chicago’s man advantage time. That means he’s already receiving top deployment and thus will have to take things up a notch in order to top his total from last season by 10+ points; and it’s not clear that can happen in only his third season, let alone on a Chicago team that might once again fall below expectations ala last season.

Ryan Spooner (Previous career high scoring pace = 57 points)

After following up a surprise 49-point season in 2015-16 with Boston – one which featured Spooner as a fixture on PP1 but also predominantly stuck with third line center duty at even strength – with a mere 39 points during 2016-17, it was not a major shock to see the Bruins deal the then impending RFA during the 2017-18 campaign. What did end up surprising poolies was Spooner’s explosion in the Big Apple after being dealt, as he posted 17 points in his final 21 games after emerging with four multi-point efforts in his first seven contests with the Rangers. What remains to be seen is if he can put together truly top level season once he inks what should be a contract that secures him a top six spot for the first time in his career.

Teuvo Teravainen (Previous career high scoring pace = 64 points)

Much of what was said last week about Sebastian Aho can be echoed here, as TT broke out for a career best then shined even brighter on the major stage of the IIHF World Championships (14 points in eight games). But in TT’s case he started with point per game output early in 2017-18 then had cooled by midseason, leaving poolies to wonder if he has the consistent effort level and explosiveness to make the leap ala Aho, or if instead he might just settle in as a player who’s good for points in the 60s each season. In this, his magical fourth year, we should find out.

Matthew Tkachuk (Previous career high scoring pace = 59 points)

Going into 2017-18 it was thought that Tkachuk would provide a nice combination of PIM and SOG while perhaps chipping in with second line scoring and a few PPPts. He easily exceeded those expectations, thanks in large part to working his way onto Calgary’s PP1, which helped him rise to 34 points in his final 40 contests despite still being a second line player at even strength. With a new coach in Calgary and the additions of Elias Lindholm and James Neal, the question remains as to whether Tkachuk can keep his coveted PP1 spot; however, odds are it’s his to lose and between that and more time on ice in general he might be able to surpass his career best by enough to deserve your vote.

. . . . . .

There are your 14 voting choices (15 if you count “none of them,” which this time I will list as a choice as well). As noted above, you can vote for as many or as few of them as you think will best their career high scoring total/rate by at least ten points this coming season. To vote, click here.

As with last week, when voting, be sure to also post in the thread about who you chose to vote for and why, as that way your fellow Dobberites can get better insight into your thought process and the Tournament can be as instructive as it is fun. See you back here next week for Tournament #3.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/cage-match-tournament-2018-breakout-players-week-2/

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What We Learned: When will sellers start selling?

When will the first domino fall ahead of the NHL trade deadline?

The thing with the NHL is that everyone thinks they’re in the playoff hunt right up until they’re mathematically eliminated from it. And it’s in no way revelatory to say that’s because of the points system, which ensures that as long as you can get to overtime regularly, it really doesn’t matter how bad you are. You’re always going to look like you’re a three-game winning streak away from being right in the thick of it.

After Saturday night’s games, 11 of the 16 teams in the Eastern Conference were either in a playoff spot or within a point of it. Out west, 12 of 15 were only as far as two points back. There are various issues with games in hand here, of course, given that we’re still sorting through bye weeks — which, by the way, it’s incredibly stilly that the league’s bye-week plan this season was “half the league is off one week, the other half the next” — but overall, well, the points system is working as intended.

The NHL and its members teams want to be able to sell competition to fans, which is understandable and fine, because that theoretically wrings a few extra dollars from the gate at every NHL game. When teams are playoff-competitive, they’re more interesting to fans. Makes perfect sense.

But man does it also make the month before the trade deadline boring and bad. There’s no deader spot in the schedule than Games 40-60, and that there are basically no sellers in the league right now despite all the evidence in the world that there are a ton of teams that just aren’t that good is a real problem.

Take Florida, for instance. They ended Saturday seven points out of the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, held by the Penguins. Seven points might as well be a mile, especially because there are three teams between them and the reigning Cup champs. And yet, Dale Tallon says he will only make a trade if it makes sense in the long-term planning surrounding the team. He also said, “We’re not in the playoffs right now, so we have to get there.” Which is to say that this team is either going to buy or doing very little in the coming weeks.

It’s not that the Panthers have too many guys they would likely be interested in moving, or which teams would be interested in trading for, but this attitude is illustrative of a wider problem in the NHL: Everyone believes in their heart of hearts that they’re just a trade or two away from being competitive. We, of course, know this isn’t the case; unless the Panthers are trading futures for Connor McDavid (and hey, he might be available for the right price!) they’re not getting into the postseason, full stop.

Likewise, the Ottawa Senators, whose record is even worse than the Panthers’, acknowledge that their sesaon is effectively over and is now exploring trade possibilities (at least in terms of which guys would fetch what prices), but note that it’s “too early to throw in the towel yet.” It, of course, is quite the opposite; the towel could have been safely thrown in at any point in the past month and a half at least.

Montreal also said this past week it wasn’t going to throw in the towel. Edmonton is apparently only making Anton Slepyshev available right now. Vancouver is in the middle of what is apparently a model rebuild (haha) but they’re not ready to trade Thomas Vanek quite yet.

Even Arizona, dead last in another lost season, hasn’t made the call to put Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the block. This is a guy every GM in the league would push their grandmothers in front of a bus to acquire, on a team so bad it could safely talk about selling a month ago, and yet the apparent issue is that they’re asking for the moon (two good roster players and a first-round pick). That is, of course, the benefit of selling in a clear seller’s market, but Ekman-Larsson is a 26-year-old All-Star signed for this season and next at a low price ($5.5 million AAV, but more than that in real dollars), so teams should be more interested than they apparently are.

Arizona’s only move was the Duclair-to-Chicago swap a few days ago, but that was precipitated by a trade demand, rather than the team actively seeking out something that works. And by the way, if we’re calling Arizona a seller right now, then the seller lost that trade badly, which is usually how it works when trades are demanded.

The only team to apparently grasp nice and early that their season was over was Buffalo, which was rumored to be putting everyone not-named Jack Eichel up for sale as soon as early December. And yet the only trade they’ve actually made to this point was to acquire Scott Wilson from Detroit for a fifth-round pick in 2019, so by that token, Buffalo was actually a buyer.

This is one of those things where everyone acknowledges that the market is tighter than it should be. It’s also broadly believed that, a) as soon as one trade happens, some dominoes will start to fall, and b) someone should do something soon to make sure it’s not this tight until the week and a half before the deadline. But no one seems particularly interested in actually doing that.

It’s tough to tell when, exactly, something is going to shake loose. The Duclair trade, and whatever happens with Jack Johnson in the next week or two after he likewise asked out of Columbus, aren’t going to qualify as the start of selling season.

Because if you’re the buying team making such a trade right now, you’re still paying gallon prices for half-gallon players. And if you’re a seller, you’re the first seller to say, “Well that’s it for us.” And it apparently doesn’t matter whether you’re six, 10, or even 24 points out: No GM wants to be That Guy. Probably because That Guy has a greater likelihood of also being That Guy when ownership decides it’s time to make a change in the front office.

And the entire league is less interesting as a result.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Kings-Ducks on Saturday night was a real good one. The right team won it too.

Arizona Coyotes: This all seems just about right.

Boston Bruins: Kind of amazing Chara hasn’t put more people in the hospital with that shot of his.

Buffalo Sabres: I cannot tell you how imperative it is to team offense to have literally any defensemen who can move the puck out of their own zone. The Sabres have a half-decent top-six forward group but they never score because no one can get those guys the puck. This is the problem, to a lesser extent, in Edmonton too. Not hard to figure out.

Calgary Flames: They might be making the run they need, gang.

Carolina Hurricanes: This is the kind of thing all owners say but it’s tough to guess whether the right investments will actually be made going forward.

Chicago: For real, though, why on earth do NHL teams keep giving good players to Chicago for basically nothing, or worse, to help them alleviate their cap problems? Does Bowman have Kompromat on everyone?

Colorado Avalanche: I gotta remember to write about the Avs soon. What a fun team, and they just keep winning.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Guarantee the Blue Jackets are like, “Oh jeez, no not that, Jack. Please don’t demand a trade. We would hate that. We want to keep you. You’re good at hockey. Please Jack.”

Dallas Stars: Well hey everyone is losing to Colorado these days, huh? I’m not worried about the Stars!

Detroit Red Wings: One assumes Ted Kulfan had this column written on Oct. 1.

Edmonton Oilers: Love to pick up an OT win in Vegas on Connor McDavid’s 21st birthday right before the team goes on the bye.

Florida Panthers: Man, what a headline!

Los Angeles Kings: Imagine being so good at just saying stuff about hockey on TV that they build a statue of you. Good lord.

Minnesota Wild: The bottom of the Central is a total mess. After Saturday’s games, five points separated second from seventh.

Montreal Canadiens: I mean, sure.

Nashville Predators: Ahh, nah though.

New Jersey Devils: Remember when people were like, “The Devils can do this forever?” Well funny story…

New York Islanders: Before we start crowning Mat Barzal as the new Kyle Okposo or Matt Moulson, who scores a bunch for the Islanders but is dependent on John Tavares, consider this: Tavares only has a point on nine of his 44 points and just two of his 15 goals.

New York Rangers: Yeah dude, trade everyone. Who cares.

Ottawa Senators: I legit can’t tell you how much I hate this.

Philadelphia Flyers: Sean Couturier isn’t an All-Star, lol what a league.

Pittsburgh Penguins: I like the Pens to make a run here. Call me crazy but I think they have the talent to put together a nice stretch.

San Jose Sharks: This is gonna get a no-thanks from me.

St. Louis Blues: The Blues for-sure need a body or two to push them into “near-elite” status but what do they give up?

Tampa Bay Lightning: This is the thing I was saying last week about how the Bolts should never play more than three of their five best players in any one game for the rest of the year.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Yeah turns out they need another top-four defenseman. No one could have seen this need coming in the summer, though. Nope.

Vancouver Canucks: This is beyond parody, honestly.

Vegas Golden Knights: This is the most NHL thing in the history of the NHL. It would be mega funny if Vegas has to change its name.

Washington Capitals: Point of order: TJ Oshie isn’t a first-liner. But okay.

Winnipeg Jets: This is why I’m dubious of the Jets as a legitimate Cup threat. Maybe they can trade for Jack Johnson ha ha ha.

Play of the Weekend

Hmm I guess this is impressive.

Gold Star Award

Mat Barzal has two five-point games this season. Connor McDavid has one in his career. Just something to think about.

Minus of the Weekend

Vegas lost to Edmonton. Now that’s embarrassing, gang.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “duffy9748” wants to improve the Preds (I think).

To NSH:

Wayne Simmonds (50% retained) Valterri Fillpula Robert Hagg

To PHI: Eeli Tolvanen 2018 1st 2019 1st[

Signoff

Uhhh, oh that isn’t smoke, it’s steam. Steam from the steamed clams we’re having. Mmm mmm steamed clams.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

What We Learned: Empathizing with Ottawa's jersey tossers

The situation in Ottawa has become a dire one and fans are taking notice. (Getty Images)

I take back everything I’ve ever said in support of the Edmonton and Toronto jersey-tossers over the years.

Those teams didn’t deserve to have some guy (or gal!!!!) throw their jerseys on the ice because they were losing for what felt like the 500th time in a row.

On the contrary, judging by the standards now laid out by the jersey-tosser in Ottawa, those teams were run competently and to the best of everyone’s ability.

The Senators just lost their fourth game in five tries and are now only four points above last place in the East. Moreover, they have the worst record in the league since the start of November, with just seven wins in 25 games.

One has to keep in mind that when Edmonton and Toronto lost constantly, they were doing so with an eye toward the future. I don’t think anyone in either front office was deluding themselves at that time that either of those teams were supposed to be pushing for a playoff spot. That said, the rebuild efforts in those cities were ignominious insofar as they shouldn’t have taken as long as they did, and while the jury is still out on them, at least there was some cohesion to the thought processes behind them. You may not have liked those thought processes — and in Edmonton’s case in particular, it’s easy to see why — but you could mostly see what was going on.

However, you can’t say that about Ottawa. Not only are the Senators bad, they’re finally spending money this year because they were supposed to be good. Repeat: This very bad team, which made the playoffs despite a negative goal differential and a lot of worrying signs, thought it was entering this season ready to return to a Conference Final. Well hey, that didn’t work out, and just about anyone could have told you that, at least if they didn’t work in the front office.

Maybe the Senators shouldn’t be this bad, on paper, and certainly they’ve been fairly unlucky in terms of their percentages, but they were always going to be pretty bad. The problem with that, of course, is that this is a team in Going For It mode, because there are plenty of good players on the roster, including a generational talent in his prime. Now, is it better to be close to the bottom of the league when you’re in that position than, say, finish 19th in the league and end up with something like the 12th overall pick? Sure. But again, that wasn’t the plan and never could have been.

That’s because Eugene Melnyk wants to milk as much money out of this group as he can. Which is fair, since it’s his team and he can run it as he sees fit, but also he seems to be steering the ship right into the rocks.

Because now, with the team playing poorly and unlikely to get anywhere near playoff contention over the next 30 games or so, it seems like the Senators are headed for a sell-off of talent the likes of which we rarely see in this league. Rumors are swirling that Mike Hoffman will be traded, and St. Louis is the stated frontrunner for his services. Likewise, Derrick Brassard is already basically using the media to beg someone to trade for him. And both JG Pageau and Cody Ceci have reportedly also been discussed in trade calls.

Which, again, fair enough. That is, in fact, the right course of action, because this is a team badly in need of a full tear-down rebuild, but the problem is that one wonders whether that will be the actual course of action. As discussed in this space previously, all efforts to tear down the Senators should begin — but certainly not end — with an Erik Karlsson trade, sooner than later. If you trade Karlsson before the deadline, the (presumably contending) team trading for him gets him for two full playoff runs, and that would make the return for Karlsson considerably more significant than if he were to be traded this summer, or later.

This probably won’t happen, though, because a Senators team with Karlsson on it is also far more valuable than one without him. But with Melnyk so concerned about the bottom line despite spending in the general area of the cap this season, that might not happen despite the fact that Ottawa is both going nowhere and likely to lose Karlsson for nothing.

To trade Hoffman and some other key pieces on the team without even truly considering a Karlsson deal as well (or primarily) is the kind of half-measure that has become this organization’s hallmark. You’re always going to be kind of good with Karlsson around — unless, as is the case this season, you’re not getting the percentages — and therefore you’re not doing the kind of serious bottoming-out that has become de rigueur in realistic NHL rebuilds.

The issue for this team really boils down to misallocation of cap assets, right?  They’re very close to the salary cap after the Matt Duchene trade, but are paying Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf a combined $14.25 million against the cap. That’s 19 percent of your cap number wrapped up in two guys over 30 who have some kind of no-move protection and also aren’t very good.

Duchene was supposed to move the needle. He didn’t. And the team probably can’t trade him because his value on the open market has to be non-existent given his underpeformance since he got to town.

So the approach here seems to be one of half-measures once again. If you trade Hoffman, you trade a 25-year-old player in his prime who’s almost certainly a first-line talent on an AAV of just over $5 million. It’s a great deal the Senators worked out, but they’re ready to give up on it in pursuit of who-knows-what.

And probably this is just me projecting my own feelings about the Senators onto that of the jersey-tosser. Maybe that person just doesn’t like the losing and thought the team would be good this year. But again, there’s no clarity of vision here, as there was with Toronto and Edmonton. It’s just tire-spinning, circling the drain, hoping something will come along to catapult the team to actual real-life, long-term relevance once again.

The only way to start that at this point is to trade everyone and accept the losing as part of the process. But this being the Senators, that seems quite unlikely. So yeah, toss the jerseys for all the good it’ll do. At least make yourself feel better.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Would you look at that: The Ducks have everyone back healthy and also are 6-3-4 since all their injured guys started getting back into games (that is, points in 10 of their last 13 games). Not bad. Not great, but not bad.

Arizona Coyotes: Oh yeah, Nik Hjalmarsson. He didn’t vanish after all. Huh.

Boston Bruins: Tuukka Rask didn’t lose a start in regulation in all of December. He went 9-0-1 with a no-decision in 11 games, and stopped 95.5 percent of all the shots he faced. Pretty good.

Buffalo Sabres: Pommer, talk about how special this is.

Calgary Flames: Hmm, okay.

Carolina Hurricanes: Probably too late for this team to truly get it together, but I wish they could just be good for a while.

Chicago: Jeff, it was a fluke!

Colorado Avalanche: This space will now become a Nathan MacKinnon Appreciation Station, because my man had another three points against the Leafs the other day.

Columbus Blue Jackets: This isn’t the trade I would wanna make with Ottawa but okay sure.

Dallas Stars: What the Stars really need is, like, more goals.

Detroit Red Wings: New year, new me.

Edmonton Oilers: The easy road to the playoffs is not to trade all your good forwards.

Florida Panthers: It’s all coming together!

Los Angeles Kings: I hate to learn the game, unlike Alex Iafallo.

Minnesota Wild: None of these can do literally anything once. None of them can go to Alpha Centauri once. (Unless faster-than-light-speed travel is invented tomorrow, in which case, okay.)

Montreal Canadiens: Well, this has to be it for everyone, right? Everyone’s being traded?

Nashville Predators: Man if Juuse Saros can get it going, all things are possible for the Preds this year.

New Jersey Devils: Calling Eddie Lack “something” seems awful generous.

New York Islanders: This seems good, to me.

New York Rangers: You hear about this? This playing outside? That’s special.

Ottawa Senators: These three words from Mark Stone could describe so much about this team.

Philadelphia Flyers: Imagine thinking it could have.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Hmm, okay.

San Jose Sharks: Logan Couture coming back will make the Pacific a little more interesting, but honestly it would hard to be surprised either way if the Sharks make or do not make the playoffs.

St. Louis Blues: Really? Jay Bouwmeester? Big plus?

Tampa Bay Lightning: I don’t really think it makes much of a difference who the Lightning’s backup is.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs don’t believe in the dang Vegas Flu. Leafs, thank you.

Vancouver Canucks: This does not seem like a question that really needs to be asked.

Vegas Golden Knights: Vegas is undefeated in overtime. Wild.

Washington Capitals: This seems good.

Winnipeg Jets: Getting Big Buff back would probably be helpful.

Play of the Weekend

I love when guys coming out of the box get a breakaway and score. One of the best things about this sport.

Gold Star Award

Alex Ovechkin had his third three-assist game of the season on Saturday. Those nine assists make up more than half of his season total. Fun!

Minus of the Weekend

Klas Dahlbeck was a minus-3 for St. Louis in less than 13 minutes of ice time. If you ask me, not great.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “heybuddyhowyadoing” has a seven-player, nine-asset trade in mind.

To MTL Kapanen Gauthier Aaltonen Pickard 3rd round pick in 2018 conditional 5th round pick in 2019

To TOR Petry Lindgren Juulsen

Signoff

Superintendent! I was just, uhh, stretching my calves on the windowsill. Isometric exercise. Care to join me?

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)

[yahoo-puck-daddy-blog]

Puck Daddy Bag of Mail: Carolina's start, and who can help the Leafs?

Scott Darling needs to be better if the Carolina Hurricanes are going to make good use of their underlying numbers. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Can you believe we’re already getting to the point where teams are talking about sending guys back to their junior teams after nine-game tryouts are over, or otherwise keeping them around? How is the season already almost one-ninth done?

I mean, I understand Halloween is less than a week away, and that’s one of those things where you have to keep in mind the stuff about how hard it is to make the postseason if you’re out of a playoff spot after the start of November. So the question is, with so many surprising starts one way or the other, what do the next six months look like?

[Follow Yahoo Canada Sports on Facebook | Instagram | Twitter]

Let’s take a little walk together.

Matt asks: “Carolina was a preseason pick for a lot of people to make a jump to relevance, so what’s with their slow start?”

There have been a few problems for the Hurricanes, probably most notable of which is the fact that they’re playing dominant hockey at 5-on-5, with the second-best CF% in the league. But they’re actually getting a relatively small portion of their shots on net. That coupled with a low shooting percentage is creating problems for the offense, which only has 17 goals in seven games.

Meanwhile, the goaltending just hasn’t been there from Scott Darling, who’s a lowly .896. One wonders what goes on there, but suffice it to say part of the issue is that Carolina is allowing a lot of scoring chances, particularly of the high-danger variety, and that’s not making Darling’s job any easier. The good news is it’s a new team and it’s early, and there’s still plenty of time to turn that around. However, it’s also worth noting that he’s never been a starter and his numbers were propped up by a pretty good Chicago team that basically always gets good goaltending. Historically, the opposite has been true in Carolina, so at some point you have to wonder if it’s an institutional issue. After all, Eddie Lack had great numbers in Vancouver before his career cratered in Carolina.

The special teams haven’t really been there either. They commit very few penalties but also don’t draw a ton, and when you can’t score or defend those opportunities at league-average rates, it becomes a little tougher to compete.

All that being said, this is a team loaded with young talent and they have a really low PDO (seventh-lowest in the league, in fact) to go with a great 5-on-5 game. One imagines things will turn around.

Rashek asks via email: “Which team had ridden PDO/luck the deepest into the playoffs over the past ten seasons?”

I’m going to just sent the benchmarks here right now at a PDO north of 101 coupled with a sub-50 CF%, which highlights teams that got a lot of high percentages but generally didn’t do well at 5-on-5, which is the best predictor of long-term success. Interestingly, that still gives us about 11 percent of all the teams in the league since 2007-08 (32 out of 300).

But I’m also going to eliminate any team from the 2012-13 lockout season because, well, it was only 48 games, and seven teams out of the 32 came from that year, which tells you it was a bit of an outlier.

So that leaves us with 25 teams from 270, about 9 percent, and it won’t surprise you to learn a lot of them made the playoffs.

Here’s the breakdown:

Missed playoffs (7 teams, 28 percent)

2015-16 Senators 2014-15 Avalanche 2013-14 Maple Leafs 2013-14 Coyotes 2010-11 Stars 2008-09 Oilers 2008-09 Panthers

Out in first round (5 teams, 20 percent)

2016-17 Wild 2015-16 Panthers 2013-14 Avalanche 2011-12 Predators 2009-10 Avalanche

Out in second round (10 teams, 40 percent)

2016-17 Rangers 2016-17 Oilers 2015-16 Rangers 2014-15 Canadiens 2014-15 Flames 2013-14 Ducks 2010-11 Flyers 2010-11 Predators 2008-09 Canucks 2007-08 Canadiens

Out in conference finals (2 teams, 8 percent)

2014-15 Rangers 2011-12 Coyotes

Lost Cup Final (1 team, 4 percent)

2007-08 Penguins

Won Cup (1 team, 4 percent)

2008-09 Penguins

A couple caveats: unless you have Henrik Lundqvist or Crosby and Malkin in their primes, your ceiling is more or less “losing in the second round,” and a lot of those second-round teams lost in short order.

But the answer to your question, which I assumed would be the case going in, was the 2011-12 Coyotes, who rode Mike Smith’s one great season ever to a Western Conference Final, where the Kings humiliated them in five games. A plus-6 goal margin isn’t too impressive in five games, but that plus-71 shot margin sure is.

A.D. asks: “If you could GM for the Leafs, who would you try and target for this season?”

Would Zdeno Chara be a fit for the Maple Leafs? (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)

We know the Leafs don’t need help putting the puck in the net.

I mentioned in last week’s mailbag when talking about the Oilers, there just aren’t a lot of options out there for teams that need defense. In a recent look at their blue line situation (which so far is holding up better than I would have expected, but certainly needs some improvements), James Mirtle at the Athletic noted some reasonable targets.

The Leafs didn’t win the Travis Hamonic sweeptstakes, and might turn their attentions to someone like Mike Green (who I mentioned last week) or John Carlson (who I didn’t). One name Mirtle mentioned as a potential target, too, is Zdeno Chara, who’s a free agent after this year and also on the wrong side of 40. However, I’ve heard the Bruins would probably prefer to re-sign him if he can keep up a decently high level of play, and it would be the player’s preference as well. For the record, Chara has a no-move he would have to waive to go to Toronto, a division rival for Boston anyway.

Of course, all of this is prelude to the media ginning up years’ worth of rumors about the Leafs making a run at Drew Doughty. That’s contingent on the Kings dropping off a cliff this year.

Honestly, there just aren’t a lot of options out there unless you want to start thinking way outside the box and give up a really useful piece up front (like James van Riemsdyk) for someone who can provide long-term help. But given what it costs to wrangle a good defenseman in the offseason, let alone figuring out the machinations of in-season cap management, this might be one of those things where there’s no good answer.

Stafturd asks: “Are the numbers behind Dustin Brown’s resurgence real or is he gonna regress hard?”

I mean, all the underlying numbers are there, and that’s all you can ask for a guy. Not only that, his relative numbers are through the roof and he’s drawing a ton of penalties while taking none himself. He’s shooting the puck more, etc. etc.

He’s doing everything you could ask anyone, even leaving aside the fact that he’s someone whose contract was seen as an anchor like a month ago. But is he gonna shoot 14-plus percent forever? He is not. Is he going to have an on-ice save percentage of .953 all year? He is not.

But even if things calm down — a lot — scoring-wise, if he can keep up this level of performance, he’s going to keep putting his team in a good position.

Pekka asks via email: “What’s up with Olli Määttä? He has already eclipsed his point marks of last season and his relative possession stats are way up, though still slightly on the negative side. Is it the fact that he’s finally healthy, the Stanley Cup high, bloated shooting percentage or what?”

Unlike Brown, Maatta’s hot start is entirely percentage-driven. He’s getting buried in every situation, and the team is shooting almost 13 percent when he’s on the ice. This looks a lot like Mike Sullivan doing what he did with Justin Schultz: Putting him in a position to succeed. He’s doing it in some aspects of the game, and very much not in the ones that inform long-term success.

In short, I doubt he keeps it up all year. Being healthy doesn’t really seem to have anything to do with it.

Dylan asks via email: “Do you know enough about them to know if there are fancy stats models that exist in any level of soccer or lacrosse (both similar to hockey) that might be applicable to hockey in terms of player and/or team assessment?”

Sorta. I don’t know anything about lacrosse and would prefer to keep it that way.

I know everything — everything — in soccer gets tracked. TV broadcasts will regularly show how many miles a player has run, and I have an app on my phone that will show me not only shot locations and what happened on those shots (much like a shot chart in hockey) but also every pass made by every player all game long. You can, therefore, figure out a player’s pass completion rate, and even what happened as a result of those passes, pretty easily.

These aren’t models, of course, but it shows how far ahead soccer is in terms of simply being able to really get under the shot-metric numbers hockey has to rely on. You could, in theory, use player- and puck-tracking data to determine entire team passing success rates and evaluate how that plays into shooting and scoring and winning.

All this stuff is also available in the NBA to an absurd extent. Look at the stats page on NBA.com versus NHL.com and it’s like the data is from two different decades.

In short, greater tracking ability leads to better information about the game. There are a lot of understandable reasons the NHL can’t do it and other sports can, including changing on the fly making things very weird, the speed of the game and general difficulty in tracking the puck without putting a chip in it (which has proven difficult), and so on. Nonetheless, that’s the big impediment right now.

Mikhail asks: “Do you have any favorite single-game performances from folks who didn’t stick around in the NHL?”

I don’t know if “favorite” is the right word here, but I remember watching a game on Center Ice in 2006 (this is so weird to bring up) between Calgary and Phoenix in which a rookie named Enver Lisin was an absolute force for the Coyotes.

It was the sixth game of his career, and while he didn’t have any points — the Coyotes lost 6-1 to one of those really good Flames teams — he took six shots on goal and was generally everywhere, and got 21 minutes for some reason.

I watched that game like, “Who IS this kid?” I guess the Coyotes ended up with the same question. Two years later they traded him to the Rangers for Lauri Korpikoski and the Rangers didn’t even try to qualify him the next summer.

Lisin played only 135 NHL games, never more than 57 in a season, and had only 42 points.

He left North America for good in 2010-11, and has been a perfectly mediocre KHL player ever since. But I’m never gonna forget that damn game. It was bonkers.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

All stats via Corsica unless noted otherwise.