#unless the canucks lose in which case it never happened

[atwhughesversion]

idk how to describe it but me and devs admin have beef

[thrashermaxey]

Roos Lets Loose: Battle of the Netminders

  Back when Cage Match was still my weekly column, you had to wait until the summer and winter for tournaments/polls; but the good news is now you’ll get one every month! And what better way for me to kick things off than having a tournament involving goalies, which I never got a chance to cover while doing Cage Match.

  The premise of this tournament/poll is deceptively simple – pick the five goalies who’ll get the most wins in the next five seasons, starting next season. But it’s more difficult than it appears, since it has as much, if not more so, to do with a netminder’s age, the team he plays for and his contract/cap situation as it does with his pure skill. Keeping those things in mind, here are the choices (in alphabetical order, along with their current age plus their contract status and cap hit). Vote for the five whom you believe will have the most cumulative wins from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 campaign. Although not listed below, the tournament/poll will also include a “none of the above” choice in case you think a goalie who’s not listed here and either currently playing in the NHL or not will be among the five goalies with the most wins during this period. Look for the link at the end of the column to cast your votes; but without further ado, here are the 18 contenders:

  Jake Allen (age = 28; signed through 2020-21 at $4.35M per season)

Once thought to be a surefire Tier 1 goalie, Allen has instead struggled with injuries and inconsistency, to the point where for now he’s lost his hold on the starting gig to Jordan Binnington (more on him below). With what they’re paying Allen, he should continue to get chances to recapture #1 netminder status; and who knows, perhaps if he connects the dots – and assuming Binnington doesn’t just steal the starting job away from him for good – Allen could become one of those netminders who finally hits his stride in his late 20s and then excels into his 30s.

  Frederick Andersen (age = 29; signed through 2020-21 at $5M per season)

If Andersen was a lock to stay in Toronto, then on paper it would be difficult not to vote for him, what with the Leafs arguably built to be one of the top teams the NHL over these next five years. But with Andersen only signed for two more seasons and the Leafs likely to be feeling a cap crunch in the coming years, it’s not impossible to think he might find himself on a new team for 2021-22; and if that happens, who knows if he’ll excel to the extent he is now.

  Jordan Binnington (age 25; signed through 2018-19 at $0.65M per season)

It’s not that Binnington wasn’t on anyone’s radar when the season began – he was a virtual nobody just over a month ago, with a grand total of one NHL appearance prior to this season and 146 AHL games for two different organizations. Fast forward to now, however, and he’s won 12 of his first 14 starts this season, with four shutouts and allowing more than two goals a grand total of twice. Is it more likely than not teams will find a way to adjust and he’ll come back to earth, ala Andrew Hammond a few years ago? Quite possibly; however, his beyond stellar play merits him at least being a voting choice here.

  Ben Bishop (age = 32; signed through 2022-23 at $4.916M per season)

One of the two oldest netminders on the list, Bishop has proven to be a great signing for the Stars and, unlike in his past, has managed to stay healthy for the most part. He’s the type who might not lead the league in wins for any given season but could be high enough on the list to end up within the top five when all is said and done.

  Devan Dubnyk (age = 32; signed through 2020-21 at $4.33M per season)

The other elder statesman on the list, Dubnyk benefits by playing a lot of games (he’s started the second most contests of any NHL netminder since 2014-15, behind only Braden Holtby – more on him below) and having no threat to take his job on the immediate horizon. The question is whether the Wild will opt to retain him in a couple of seasons when he’s a UFA and, if they do, how good the team will be given its ageing core.

  John Gibson (age = 25; signed through 2026-27 at – starting next season – $6.4M per season)

If winning was based on talent alone, Gibson likely would be a shoo-in for the top five. But what we cannot ignore is he’s had a history of injury issues and the Ducks look to be a team on the decline. While some goalies have played well enough to carry a team on their shoulders, as we’re seeing this season that might be too tall an order for Gibson despite how skilled he is.

  Carter Hart (age = 20; signed through 2020-21 at $0.73M per season)

Although always a highly touted prospect, Hart’s big splash came earlier than expected, resulting in him having been anointed the NHL’s next young goalie phenom. Even more importantly he’s already proven himself to be a true difference maker, with poise and maturity that wins him games often less so due to the team in front of him as much as notwithstanding them. Of course much the same could’ve been said of former Flyer upstart netminders like Brian Boucher and Antero Niittymaki, who began their careers with so much promise then quickly faltered. Plus, Philly has been known as the place that chews goalies up and spits them out, so Hart would need to defy those odds to be a true star netminder.

  Connor Hellebuyck (age = 25; signed through 2023-24 at $6.16M per season)

After inking a deal that, on paper, labelled him one of the league’s top netminders, Hellbuyck has taken somewhat of a step back this campaign. But the wins are still there, and this poll is solely about wins, not peripheral stats. With him inked to play for Winnipeg at least four of the next five seasons and the team seems poised to be a top squad for that entire time, the ingredients seem to be in place for him to be a wins stalwart.

  Braden Holtby (age = 29; signed through 2019-20 at $6.1M per season)

Surprisingly – at least to me – still only 29 years old, Holtby likely would be a clear pick if this was two seasons ago or even last year at this time. But with the exodus of Barry Trotz during the summer and Holtby getting a year older, he’s looked barely above average for most of this season. That being said, plenty of other goalies have suffered from a Stanley Cup hangover then rebounded to their formerly elite selves; and Holtby’s skill, combined with Washington likely to be a top team for at least a few more seasons, makes him a viable selection.

  Martin Jones (age = 29; signed through 2023-24 at $5.75M per season)

Think of Jones like you would Devan Dubnyk, only except three years younger. Lacking any near or even long-term threats to his spot as the top Sharks goalie, Jones looks poised to rack up wins. The big question is how good San Jose will be in the years to come, as their core is ageing and it’s not clear whether their younger players are poised to step in and keep the team elite enough to help Jones pile on the wins.

  Robin Lehner (age = 27; signed through 2018-19 at $1.5M per season)

What do you get when you have a player who’s always had talent and finally put his demons behind him, then couple that with the wisdom and tutelage of goalie whisperers Barry Trotz and Mitch Korn? You get the season Lehner is having, with a GAA and SV% among the league’s best. The problem is the same magic that Trotz and Korn are working on Lehner is also the cure for what ailed Thomas Greiss. With Greiss signed through next season, will Lehner be able to secure enough wins, and beyond that, keep his demons at bay? Time – and your votes – will tell.

  Jacob Markstrom (age = 29; signed through 2019-20 at $3.66M per season)

If you’re like me, you were surprised to see that Markstrom is 29, as it’s difficult not to think of him still as still a young prospect. But as he’s aged he’s found his game and the Canucks might be poised to do better – and sooner – as a team than many would’ve expected, all leading to Markstrom being a sneaky pick to do well in wins.

  Matt Murray (age = 24; signed through 2019-20 at $3.75M per season)

With his injuries and failure – thus far – to truly recapture his early magic, some are anointing Murray the next Cam Ward. Murray has put together stretches of play where he’s unbeatable, only to follow that with a few stinkers. Still only 24, he can likely work out the kinks in his game to be more consistent, unless of course injuries take their toll. And although the Pens are ageing, they still figure to be among the most successful teams in the NHL in the near term, so the recipe for Murray to earn wins is there.

  Carey Price (age = 31; signed through 2025-26 at $10.5M per season)

With by far the biggest contract among the voting choices, Price likely has the safest #1 netminder job in all of hockey. But now on the other side of 30 and after a couple of seasons of injuries, he doesn’t look like a former Vezina winner on some nights nowadays. Beyond that, although the Habs have made strides this season it’s not clear the team itself will be good enough for Price to pile on the wins – not unless he can get back to stealing games for them.

  Tuukka Rask (age = 31; signed through 2020-21 at $7M per season)

Another season, another case of early talk of Rask losing his skill followed by him silencing his critics with superb second-half play. If Rask was a couple years younger and signed for a few more seasons, he’d look to be a safe pick; however, at some point in the future he might not be able to recover from a slow start, and Boston might choose to let him walk as a UFA, in which case who knows if Rask will land on a team like the perennially strong Bruins.

  David Rittich (age = 26; signed through 2018-19 at $0.8M per season)

For a while, it was assumed Rittich’s hold on the Calgary crease was merely temporary until either he inevitably faltered or Mike Smith managed to find his game. Yet here we are in February and Rittich owns one of the best winning percentages of any netminder and appears to have staked an official claim as the #1 goalie on a Calgary team that’s poised to get better in the coming years. The wrinkle is Rittich is signed only through this season and has to show he’s more than a one-year wonder. But if he secures this #1 spot and his play continues to be comparable to what we’ve seen from him this season, the wins will surely pile up.

  Juuse Saros (age = 23; signed through 2020-21 at $1.5M per season)

As covered in my column last week, past precedent suggests that Saros should be – at worst – the 1B netminder for the Predators next season. And with his already apparent skill and Rinne’s advancing age, Saros could realistically step in and seize the reins even before Rinne’s deal runs out in 2021, in which case Saros could have no trouble earning wins on a Nashville team that is built to be a top contender for a number of years to come.

  Andrei Vasilevskiy (age = 24; signed through 2019-20 at $3.5M per season)

A top goalie on a top team – what’s not to like? But is Vas truly one of the best netminders in the NHL? Last season he hit a major wall in last third of the season, so he might be the opposite of Rask – a netminder who gets worse as the season drags on. There’s also the challenge of finding enough cap space to be able to re-sign him next summer without at the same time disrupting the strong skater core of the Lightning.

  **

There you have the choices – now it’s up to you to pick the five you believe will earn the most wins from the 2019-20 season through the 2024-25 campaign. To cast your vote, click here.

  **

Mailbag questions needed for next week

  Next week will be my monthly mailbag column. You can send me questions in one of two ways – (1) emailing them to admin@dobbersports.com with the subject line “Roos Mailbag”, or (2) as a private message to me (“rizzeedizzee”) from within the Dobberhockey Forums. See you next week!

      from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/fantasy-hockey-rick-roos/roos-lets-loose-battle-of-the-netminders/

[thrashermaxey]

20 Fantasy Hockey Thoughts

Every Sunday, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Writers: Michael Clifford, Ian Gooding, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

  1. Those drafting Max Pacioretty and hoping for a bounce-back have been discouraged with the fact that he has recorded just two points (both goals) over his first 10 games as a Golden Knight. Now that he is sidelined with a day-to-day injury, fantasy owners might be in the unenviable position of deciding whether to cut bait. Obviously, it’s more ideal if you can bench him or place him on IR (if/when he is eligible) should he need some more time to become acclimatized to Vegas.

The fact is, though, that Pacioretty has been mediocre for over a season now. In terms of points per game since the start of the 2017-18 season, Patches isn’t even among the top 150 (minimum 70 games played). Players with a similar points-per-game-played total include Kevin Hayes, Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Labanc, Alexander Wennberg, and Bryan Rust – all players that were drafted long after Pacioretty in single-season leagues. That’s simply not getting it done, particularly in shallow leagues where a higher-scoring option likely resides on the waiver wire.

Things could get better for Patches in Vegas. He should still be on the first power-play unit once he returns. Paul Stastny will also return from injury at some point. And maybe, just maybe, he even cracks the top line somehow. But when someone in the Forum inquired about dropping Patches for Anders Lee (among other choices he listed), I said I was fine with that. So, if you're in a shallow league, go ahead and make the move if you need to. (oct31)

  2. I think Brock Nelson’s value receives a boost with John Tavares gone. His ice time is up nearly four minutes per game, and he’s consistently playing with better quality linemates, in particular Anders Lee. In fact, I have enough faith in him that I’ve added him in one of my leagues. (nov2)

  3. Mikko Koskinen, who I believe is the only NHL goalie I’ve ever seen with a number in the teens, posted a 40-save shutout on Thursday and his third win of the season in as many games on Saturday. This is yet another situation in which the backup now has better numbers than the starter. Cam Talbot has played at least 65 games over the past two seasons, but of concern to fantasy owners is the fact that his struggles from last season have carried over to this season. In fact, his save percentage has gotten even worse. Talbot shouldn’t lose the starting job outright but if Koskinen is the answer as a solid backup, I wonder if Talbot’s games played total drops to somewhere in the 50s. (nov2)

  4. You may recall that Pontus Aberg was picked up off waivers on October 1 by the Ducks after being a somewhat surprising cut from the Oilers – Edmonton previously acquired him during last season’s deadline because the Predators couldn’t find room for him. Since the waiver claim, all Aberg has done is match his goal total from all of last season (53 games) over the past few days.

If you drafted Aberg as a sleeper, it would have been because of the outside chance that he would receive the prized Connor McDavid golden ticket. Now he’s on Anaheim’s top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell, which isn’t quite McDavid but it’s much better than what he’s used to. If still available, he’s worth an add in deeper formats. (oct31)

  5. Both Keith Yandle and Evgeni Dadonov have been impressive for the Panthers early on this season. Yandle is up to 12 points in 11 contests. That puts him in a tie for sixth in defenseman scoring. Dadonov, meanwhile, just extended his point streak to eight games and 10 points. The 29-year-old is clicking along to the tune of 13 points in 11 games. He’s seeing all of his ice next to Sasha Barkov and making many people eat crow who figured the addition of Mike Hoffman would diminish his returns. (nov3)

  6. As for Hoffman now has a nine-game point streak with exactly one point in each of those games. He has taken 27 shots over his last four games and leads the Panthers with 42. His fantasy stock may have fallen because of the circumstances surrounding his departure from Ottawa and concern over a reduced role in Florida, but so far he has thrived in Florida with six goals and nine points in eleven games. (nov2)

  7. Sophomore forward Brock Boeser has been hampered early this season by a nagging groin injury which has taken the fizz out of his speed and shot. He may not be 100 percent just yet but he'll get points playing with EP40, and when he is fully healthy, watch out. The young Canuck is up to four goals and 11 points in 13 games. (nov3)

  8. Jason Pominville won’t ever forget his 1000th game, not just for the pregame ceremony but also for what happened on the ice. Pominville scored two goals and added an assist while taking six shots on goal on Saturday. This isn’t just a one-off for Pominville, either. After a slow start that saw him record just one point over his first seven games, Pommer is scorching hot with 13 points (7g-6a) over his last seven games. As long as his linemates are Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, he deserves to be added in many formats.

Pominville can be a very streaky scorer, though. Last season, he scored 11 points over his first nine games and ended the season with six points over his last seven games. But during a stretch in January and February, Pominville went 17 games without a point. You will probably need to bench him or drop him outright once the signs of another dry spell appear. (nov4)

  9. The Juuse Saros era in Nashville will just have to wait a little longer, if it happens at all. Pekka Rinne has signed a two-year, $10 million extension to remain with the Predators. This contract could potentially keep Rinne in Nashville for the rest of his career.

Both Rinne and Saros are now locked up until the end of the 2020-21 season, which would make Rinne 38 and Saros 26 by the time both contracts end. So, if you’ve been stashing Saros in the hopes that Rinne would not be re-signed, this is a bit of a blow. Unless he is traded, Saros should continue to be one of the league’s top backups and at least a streaming option every time he starts. (nov4)

  10. Dylan Strome recorded just his first assist and third point of the season on Friday – not exactly the breakout many were hoping for from the 21-year-old Coyote. Granted, he's not getting the even-strength deployment you'd like to see but he is seeing over 50 percent of the team's power play time. The now-or-never period is approaching for the former third overall pick. (nov3)

  11. The Lightning re-signed soon-to-be unrestricted free agent and underdog champion, Yanni Gourde, to a six-year deal worth 5.166 million per season. The 26-year-old is a lesson in dedication. The undrafted forward has produced at every level and earned himself a shot at the big time.

Since being there, he's been a terrific swiss army knife on the Cup-contending squad. Over the past two seasons, he ranks sixth in WAR according to Evolving-Hockey. He produces at a terrific point-per-60 clip, especially at even-strength. His 2.731 ESP/60 last season ranked 22nd in the league.

I love this deal. Gourde can play all three forward positions, he's a great even-strength producer, and he's worked his bag off to get it. (nov3)

  12. In case you picked Ryan Donato as a sleeper and you missed it this past week, he’s been officially demoted to the AHL. Those of you in single-season formats may have already moved on anyway, considering that Donato had just a goal and no assists in 11 games. He’ll come back stronger once he receives more playing time in the AHL, so you’ll still want to retain him in your keeper league. (nov2)

  13. Flames’ Mike Smith may have earned a win on Thursday but it covered up another poor outing. Smith allowed five goals on 26 shots, but if not for a five-goal outburst by the Flames in the third period, fantasy owners who started Smith would have come home completely empty-handed. I think we see some more of David Rittich, at least in the short term. Smith: .871 Sv%. Rittich: .927 Sv%. Move Smith to your bench until he figures it out. This has to be a full-blown goalie controversy in Cowtown. (nov2)

  14. I like the poll questions on the DobberHockey Facebook page and try to answer them whenever I can. One of the more thought-provoking questions was which player is better: Bo Horvat or Dylan Larkin? Although I chose Horvat (my Canucks bias, of course), Larkin’s recent production should grab your attention. With 15 points (6g-9a) in 14 games, he is easily the Red Wings’ leading scorer. Larkin may have to carry the Wings on his back as they continue along their rebuild. (nov2)

  15. Is there anything that can stop Elias Pettersson right now? The kid is up to nine goals and 15 points in just nine games. At this point, if you think he’s a flash in the pan, then you need to watch him and you’ll be convinced otherwise. Let’s just say he’s far surpassed what I usually draft in the 15th round (176th overall) in a single-season fantasy league.

I decided to look up Yahoo’s Trade Market feature to find out what Pettersson is worth on the trade market. Pettersson was traded 1-for-1 for the following players: Jordan Staal, Rasmus Ristolainen, Jonathan Marchessault, Leon Draisaitl, and Aleksander Barkov. The Staal deal seemed like highway robbery, but the other deals seemed fair. Ristolainen can provide help on D in certain multicategory leagues, while the last three are proven commodities that should be able to reach 70 points (barring injury). So, if trading Pettersson, I would aim for about that caliber of player.

With that in mind, I decided to accept the offer that was presented to me last Tuesday: Pettersson for Jack Eichel. As much as I would like to marvel at the super sleeper sitting on my roster all season, I pocketed the closer-to-sure point-per-game production and crossed my fingers that top-50 pick Eichel doesn’t fall victim to the injury bug again. (oct31)

P.S.: If you don’t think I made the right decision on trading Pettersson for Eichel one for one (hello, Cam Robinson), I will mention that this is a non-keeper league with no money involved. So, I only have to live with my decision for the rest of the year and I don’t jeopardize my kids’ college fund in any way. Or, maybe it won’t be that bad of a decision. We’ll see. This kind of thing makes the game more fun and discussion livelier, though. (nov4)

  16. Another two goals for Timo Meier, including the overtime winner, against Philly on Saturday. With 11 goals on the season, Meier is now tied for the league lead with four other players. Meier has recorded points in 10 of his last 11 games and appears to be on the verge of a true breakout. Even though his goal-scoring pace might cool off a little (23.9 SH%), the signs were there. Meier took over 200 shots last season while scoring 21 goals, and he’s been on a solid scoring unit with Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl. (nov4)

  17. Auston Matthews’ injury has to be a little bit concerning for Leafs fans and fantasy owners. This is back-to-back seasons with a serious shoulder injury, to each shoulder, on top of Matthews’s well-known back issues going back to Switzerland. At this point, he’s one of the truly elite players in the game and we all hope that injuries don’t begin to derail what was starting to look like a Hall of Fame career. Let’s hope that these are just a couple bumps in the road rather than a sign of things to come. (oct30)

  18. Vladislav Namestnikov’s fantasy value beefed up in the first quarter last season when he played with Nikita Kucherov in Tampa Bay, and at this point it’s pretty clear that he’s a complementary player. Great to have if he’s complimenting the right player but there is nobody on the Rangers who fits the bill. If he’s traded to Pittsburgh and plays with Evgeni Malkin, then sign me up. But otherwise, I just don’t care about this guy in any league format. (oct29)

  19. Speaking of Malkin, I held onto that guy for a dozen years and he won me a couple of trophies in that particular keeper league. But the last few years he had been killing me with injuries in the final months, so I traded him last summer (2017). Naturally that means he never gets hurt again and is back to his dominant self. (oct29)

The dude is feelin' it. He missed four games last season and hasn't sat out yet in 2018-19. At 32 years of age, his propensity for injury should be ramping up. However, he may be going all Benjamin Button on us and turning his Achilles heel into a strength. If Geno can be a consistently healthy player, his value, even in keeper leagues, is through the roof. Near-generational players – and that's exactly what he is – have a prolonged shelf life. I won't be betting against him replicating a near-100-point-pace for the foreseeable future. (nov3)

  20. I am not, and never have been, a fan of Los Angeles being a landing spot for Ilya Kovalchuk. I had picked him up last January with the expectation that he would sign somewhere and was disappointed at his eventual destination. But, that being said, I am certainly comfortable with him getting to 60 points this season. Even with a slow start I didn’t think anything of it. He’ll have his hot and cold moments and fall above and below that mark, but ultimately I think that’s where his destination lies. Something to keep in mind if he ever gets ahead of that pace by a large amount – if you own him that would be the time to shop him. (oct29)

  Have a good week, folks!!

  from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts/20-fantasy-hockey-thoughts-48/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Healthy Scratches, Hot Goalies (Oct 17)

Healthy Scratches, Hot Goalies, plus more…

First, a quick thought about the Mike Matheson two-game suspension: I never thought I’d write this, but the NHL issuing a suspension here is a step in the right direction. Comparing apples to oranges as well as a very small sample size, the NHL generally seems to be tougher on suspensions this season – case in point the Tom Wilson 20-game suspension. In the past I know this would have gotten completely ignored and shrugged off as “part of the game,” but this matters when you consider the careers of star players cut short by head injuries (Lindros, Kariya, Lafontaine, etc.) and what we now know about head injuries. There have been a ton of takes about the hit and the Canucks’ (lack of) response afterward, so I won’t dive into this one any further.

So who took over Elias Pettersson’s spot on the first-unit power play on Tuesday? No one! The Canucks didn’t receive a single power play against Pittsburgh. In fact, there was only one penalty in the entire game.

But there was something happening with goaltending in this game, specifically Canucks’ goaltending. In case you haven’t noticed, Anders Nilsson started his third consecutive game. He also earned his third consecutive win, posting a 1.67 GAA and .943 SV% over that span. Yes, I’m as surprised as you are. And yes, I’d expect him to start the Canucks’ next game Thursday in Winnipeg, which will be a tall order for the 6’6” goalie. But if you need to ride a hot hand in net, he’s worth a gamble. Remember that after last season, he backstopped Sweden to a World Hockey Championship. So there’s that.

The more long-term question is whether Nilsson will unseat Jacob Markstrom as the de facto number one in Van City. I’d say that Nilsson would need more consistency than we’re used to with him before I would proclaim that he will be the guy two months from now. He could also easily force a timeshare with Markstrom, which might be the more likely scenario here. The Canucks are playing well right now, but their defense is the envy of no team. So over an entire season, I still wouldn’t consider either Nilsson or Markstrom to be a must-own.

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You may have heard of this by now since it was Monday’s news, but Brandon Saad could be a healthy scratch for Thursday’s game. As Mike Clifford mentioned, Saad has scored just 12 goals in his last 76 games last season, and he has not scored a goal in five games this season. Saad was demoted to the fourth line on Saturday alongside Marcus Kruger and David Kampf – not exactly Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane. Think the Hawks would like to have a do-over on that Artemi Panarin trade?

I mentioned that you should probably hold Kevin Shattenkirk in spite of his healthy scratch last week because of his 50+ point upside on the blueline, but I’m not going to tell you to do the same with Saad. Unless you play in a very deep league, Saad is most likely replaceable given the number of available forward scoring options. Saad could very well become fantasy relevant again at some point, but it’s been a calendar year since he’s been able to produce at a 50-point pace.

Speaking of Rangers and healthy scratches, Pavel Buchnevich was a healthy scratch for Tuesday’s game against Colorado. Buchnevich is already in new coach David Quinn’s doghouse, playing just 11 minutes on the Rangers’ fourth line on Saturday.  

David Quinn answered a lot of questions about Pavel Buchnevich. The gist of it was they need more out of him consistently, he needs to be harder to play against, more willing to pay a price to score, and that skill alone isn’t enough.

— Dan Rosen (@drosennhl) October 16, 2018

If you own Buchnevich and are wondering whether to drop him, it appears that the scratch isn’t due to a lack of scoring (unlike Saad). Buchnevich had scored two goals and added an assist in his five games, which isn’t drop-worthy on its own. In fact, Buchnevich could rebound from this and become a more complete player who competes harder, assuming the coach’s message gets through. If you’re in a league where every game played matters and there’s an equal or better option, then make the move. Otherwise, I’d be fine with holding here.

On a side note, if you’re a Shattenkirk and/or Buchnevich owner, you’ll know by now that David Quinn doesn’t care about your fantasy team. I say that facetiously, though. Sarcasm doesn’t translate well over the internet sometimes.

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Tampa Bay has a very favorable schedule with three games still remaining this week (vs. DET, @MIN, @CHI), so there’s still plenty left to gain this week with a Tyler Johnson pickup. In Tuesday’s game against the Canes, Johnson scored three goals with a plus-2 and six shots on goal. Reuniting Johnson with old Triplets linemates Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat has proven favorable. In fact, part of me wishes they had never been split up. With his hat trick, Johnson now has five points in his last two games. And he’s owned in only 30 percent of Yahoo leagues.

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Let’s just rename them the Edmonton McDavids. Connor McDavid scored two goals and added two assists in the Oilers’ 5-4 come-from-behind victory over the Jets. In case you missed it, McDavid recorded points on all of the Oilers’ first nine goals of the season before the string was snapped with Darnell Nurse’s overtime goal. Obviously McDavid should be in your lineup every time he plays, but his magic has started to rub off on linemates Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3 A on Tuesday) and Ty Rattie (1 G and 5 SOG on Tuesday).

In that same game, Nikolaj Ehlers finally recorded his first point of the season (an assist). In a head-scratcher of a move, someone in one of my leagues (and a fairly deep one at that) decided to drop Ehlers. I decided to use a waiver claim on him (I was 5th), but lost out to someone with higher priority. Moral of story: It’s way too early for something like this to be happening. Ehlers has scored 25 goals and 60 points in back-to-back seasons, and he’s on a line with Patrik Laine. Some fantasy owners place more emphasis than they should on the first few games of the season, so this might be a great time to attempt to buy low.

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The Devils remain undefeated, thanks to two red hot players:

Kyle Palmieri scored again, giving him seven goals on the season, which is tied for second in the NHL. He’s actually cooled off, as this is the first game in which he did not score two goals. He will of course cool off. But he’s playing on the Devils’ top line, so it’s safe to say that he should be owned in just about every league format at this point.

Keith Kinkaid stopped all 24 shots he faced in earning the shutout over Dallas – his second shutout of the season. Even though Cory Schneider is still recovering from a hip injury, has Kinkaid earned the starting job for good? Even though Schneider has the larger paycheque with the longer term, this job could be Kinkaid’s to lose even when Schneider returns. Either way, Kinkaid is the perfect third goalie to own right now.

Even though the Stars were shutout by the Devils, Jamie Benn still recorded 7 PIM for his owners that count that stat. Included was this fight with Miles Wood.

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I’ll say this about Benn: He’s a GREAT fighter. I saw Benn in a fight with 6’7” Nikita Tryamkin in a live game a couple of seasons ago. He definitely held his own with the tall Russian.

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Although Semyon Varlamov hasn’t earned wins over his last two starts, he’s exceeded my expectations over his first five games. Over each of his five starts (the first three being wins), he hasn’t posted a save percentage lower than .927. Meanwhile, Philipp Grubauer allowed four goals in his only start. It’s early and the goaltending duties could still shift more toward the upstart Grubauer as the season wears on. But Varlamov is showing no signs of letting up, keeping in the Avalanche in games where they have allowed 40 shots or more. After a shaky preseason, Varly is proving that there’s still something left as he plays for a starting job somewhere next season.

While on the Avs, I should mention that Nathan MacKinnon scored again, giving him goals in each of his first five games. He’s simply continuing where he left off last season.

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It took him six games, but William Karlsson scored his first goal of the season on Tuesday. His shooting accuracy (9 percent) is still way down from his 23 percent from last season, so the scoring pace should pick up. Still, he’s going to have a very, very tough time repeating last season’s 43 goals. To his credit, Karlsson already has six assists, so maybe we see more of a playmaking version of Wild Bill this season while linemate Jonathan Marchessault focuses more on goals.

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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-healthy-scratches-hot-goalies-oct-17/

[thrashermaxey]

Ramblings: Hoffman, Pacioretty, Couture, Bozak, Ferland, and Roussel – July 12

  In just three weeks, the 2018-19 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide will be released. Be sure to head to the Dobber Shop to grab your copy! The guide is updated periodically until the season begins to reflect trades, injuries, and new line combinations, so even if you’re early, you won’t miss out on up-to-date information.

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Dominik Bokk signed his entry-level contract with the Blues on Wednesday and it seems he’ll be headed back to Sweden for the 2018-19 season. With the bevy of signings and trades St. Louis has made in the last few weeks, there’s no real need to rush the sniping prospect into the NHL. I know dynasty owners are going to be disappointed but it’s the right call.

In talking with Cam Robinson around draft time, Bokk was a guy he mentioned among the non-elite to keep an eye on. St. Louis evidently thought the same thing as they traded up to draft him. The more I read about him, the more impressed I am with him though it seems the hockey community is kind of split on him. Some saw him as a mid-first pick, some didn’t see the potential. I’m starting to be a believer, though the usual disclaimer applies: I’m not a prospects writer nor do I scout them. I rely on the excellent work of people like Cam.

You can read Bokk's Dobber Prospects profile here. 

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Nothing fantasy hockey related, but a pretty fun read from Adam Gretz at Pro Hockey Talk about the Jaromir Jagr trade out of Pittsburgh all those years ago.

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Just to reiterate something about the Florida Panthers: one of Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov will not be on the top PP unit this year (for the most part). Now, Dadonov did not really need a bevy of PP points to perform well last year, so he can still be a 55- or 60-point guy without that slotting. If Hoffman is to top 30 goals for the first time in his career, though, he does need those minutes. Keep that in mind when draft season approaches.

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Something I noticed while trying to figure out San Jose’s line combinations for next year: Logan Couture has seen is individual shot-on-goal rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five decline every year since the lockout season. In 2017-18, he ranked 170th out of 367 forwards with at least 500 minutes in shots/60 minutes. Five years ago at the end of the lockout year, he was 29th out of 339 forwards with at least 300 minutes. In total, his shots/60 has declined about 34 percent over the last five seasons. We expect decline as a player ages but he’s still in his twenties and that decline came largely from age 24 through age 27.

Line mates? Role? Being more selective (his two highest shooting percentage seasons are the last two years)? Regardless, it’s going to be hard for him to repeat 30 goals if his shot totals don’t grow. 

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We’re hitting the quiet part of the off season. As far as trades are concerned, it seems inevitable both Max Pacioretty and Erik Karlsson are moved, it’s just a matter of when. We can probably add Jeff Skinner to that list as well. There are some cases going through arbitration from RFAs deserving of big contracts like Mark Stone, Jason Zucker, and William Karlsson. The signing of Patrick Maroon (you can read the fantasy impact here) basically means all the big-name UFAs are signed. In all, outside a few trades, there’s not much left until training camps hit.

As a side note, something I realized while writing these Ramblings: the Western Conference as a whole, outside of St. Louis and Calgary, didn’t really do a whole lot this off season, did they?

Chicago’s biggest signing might be Cam Ward.

Colorado signed some depth with Ian Cole and Matt Calvert.

The biggest addition/signing between Dallas, Minnesota, Nashville, and Winnipeg, four teams with Cup aspirations, is probably Blake Comeau? I guess Valeri Nichushkin though he’s really just a returning player.

The Kings signed Ilya Kovalchuk which may not be that big of a get depending how he performs.

Vancouver… well we’ll leave Vancouver alone. They know what they did.

Arizona added a few forwards but Alex Galchenyuk may be the only player of serious impact, and even that’s uncertain.

The Blues and Flames made pretty significant changes while most largely stood pat or handed out tens of millions of dollars to fourth liners. I suppose Erik Karlsson could change that equation if he does land somewhere like Dallas.

On the topic of UFAs, I think it’s worth reviewing the landing spots of some of the bigger names in new destinations either via trade or free agency. Too often, fantasy owners (present company included) just hand-wave a player going to a new team who seems to be just going into the same role on a new team and assume constant production.

Here are a few players whose production probably declines with their new team.

  Tyler Bozak

Bozak’s signing is solid for the Blues in terms of getting them a true third-line centre who can facilitate for their scoring wingers. In terms of fantasy hockey, owners need to realize that Bozak, going into his age-32 season, has one 50-point campaign (2016-17) and one 20-goal campaign (2014-15).

He’s going to a situation in St. Louis where his role at five-on-five won’t change much – third line in a sheltered role with talented wingers – but he will probably lose significant power-play minutes; Schenn-Schwartz-Tarasenko will eat a lot of minutes on a top unit while Ryan O’Reilly likely figures as the fourth. Losing just 30 seconds on the power play per game, which is a conservative estimate, will see him lose 3-4 points off his total from last year assuming constant goal rates. It’s that double-whammy where not only does his overall production decline, but his PP production as well, reducing his value in multiple roto categories.

He’s never been a multi-category performer so Bozak is basically only to be drafted in deep leagues or leagues that count face-offs. Though he’s going to what appears to be a very good St. Louis team going into 2018-19, the loss of power-play time is going to be a hit to what was already his meagre fantasy value.

  Micheal Ferland

As I mentioned in a review of the free agent signings a couple weeks ago, we’ve probably seen the best fantasy season we’re going to see from Ferland unless we see some dramatic changes to the Carolina roster. Last year saw a big jump in five-on-five ice time per game, garnering 1:45 more per game than his previous career-high. While the uncertainty around Jeff Skinner’s situation means there are likely more changes coming to this Carolina roster, as it stands right now, Teuvo Teravainen and Justin Williams are ahead of Ferland on the right side. They also just drafted a potential star in Andrei Svechnikov. If Svechnikov shows well early in the season, Ferland could find himself on the fourth line.

Now, Ferland is a left-handed shot even though he often played the right wing often in Calgary. But even if they moved him to the left side, he’s still behind Sebastian Aho and Skinner (for now). Brock McGinn had a solid season last year, Valentin Zykov showed promise down the stretch, and they added Jordan Martinook. If Skinner is moved and they don’t add another left winger, maybe Ferland ends up as the second-line left winger. But Skinner would have to be traded, the team would have to decide to move him to the left wing, and he’d have to outperform a few players to maintain that role. His best-case right now is that he’s moved around the middle-six for the Hurricanes, which is still a huge downgrade from spending nearly three-quarters of a season on a top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan.

Without top power-play minutes, which he won’t get, and top-line slotting, which he also won’t get, it’s very, very hard to see Ferland repeating 20 goals and 40 points. He can still be fine with a 15-15 season in leagues that count hits, but this is a serious downgrade for him.

  Antoine Roussel

I suppose no one drafts Roussel for point production. He’s drafted for triple-digit penalty minute and hit totals. And his shooting percentage is going to rebound from the 5.9 percent he shot last year, a far cry from his 12.7 percent shooting for his career going into the 2017-18 season.

All the same, anyone not playing on the top line for the Canucks is going to have a hard time scoring this year. There are a lot of hopes pinned on the likes of Elias Pettersson and Adam Gaudette but for now they’re still unproven rookies. In his last decent offensive season, Roussel was spending significant minutes with Tyler Seguin. I can’t imagine he gets a real shot with Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser.

Again, Roussel is going to spend time with unproven rookies or someone like Brandon Sutter. That’s with mediocre (at best) puck-moving defencemen behind them which may or may not include Chris Tanev in the near future. Despite being a rat on the ice, he’s an effective player. The problem is he may not get the same chance in Vancouver that he did at times in Dallas. A 25-point season would be a huge win. Though, as mentioned above, he’s not really drafted in fantasy for his point totals.

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Though the rumours for years have been that Max Pacioretty is on his way out the door, M-A Godin of The Athletic says that a trade is going to happen soon, given that the team will not negotiate a contract extension with him. It seems the tenure of one of the top goal scorers in a generation of the team’s history is over.

That’s not hyperbole, either. Though he’s not near the top of the franchise list in total goals scored, he did have one of the best peaks in team history. He was late to the NHL and suffered injuries, so his first full season was 2011-12 at the age of 23. In the six seasons from the age of 23 to the age of 28, he scored 189 goals in 439 games, or 0.43 goals per game. That is the highest goals per game mark of any Habs player since the mid-1980s. Quite literally, Montreal fans waited nearly three decades for a goal scorer as consistent and prolific as Pacioretty.

Wherever he ends up, hopefully he’s embraced by his new fan base. During his peak, Pacioretty was among the top wingers in the league and 2017-18 saw a decline due to injury. If he’s healthy when he returns, his new team will get a tried-and-true top-line left winger.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-hoffman-couture-bozak-ferland-and-roussel-july-12/

[thrashermaxey]

Cage Match Tournament 2018 – Breakout Players (Week 2)

Welcome to the second of what will be at least three Summer Cage Match Tournaments on breakout skaters. By your votes last week, Mitch Marner is the player who, despite never having previously scored over 75 points (or above a 75-point full season pace), is most likely to produce at a point-per-game level or better during this upcoming season.

Cage Match Tournament #2 – Breakout Tier 2 Forwards

The week it’s time to focus on second-tier forwards (i.e., those who have a career best of 55-65 points (or a 55-65 point scoring pace)), to vote on which will improve upon his/their career best by at least ten points in this upcoming season. The 14 choices (15, counting the “none of the above” choice) are listed below – once again in alphabetical order – along with their previous career high in single-season scoring.

Voting Rules and Guidelines

Like last week, you can vote for as many or as few players as you want – just be sure every player you’re voting for is someone you realistically see as someone who’ll finish ten or more points beyond his previous career best in scoring or scoring pace. A difference from last week is Band-Aid Boy status and injury history are very key, since unless a player suits up for enough games it’s much less likely he’ll be able to best his previous career high by ten.

Beyond that, and as also was the case last week, make sure to vote with your head more so than your heart. That means you should mainly bear in mind objective factors which will affect a player’s scoring, like his contract status, likelihood of being traded during the season, and individual/team situation. Of course you can still use instinct and hunches; but keep in mind your fellow Dobberites will look at the results for crowdsourced fantasy guidance, so don’t – for example – vote for someone for “good karma” simply because he’s on your team or not for someone else because he’s on the squad of your chief rival. The idea is to enjoy yourself, but also have the results be meaningful.

Once again voting will take place in the Dobberhockey forums. I’ll put a direct link at the bottom of the column. Now without further ado, here are your voting choices (in alphabetical order):

Kyle Connor (Previous career high scoring pace = 61 points)

At age 21, Connor was given keys to the Winnipeg offensive castle, with a regular spot on the top line and PP1. He showed he belonged and not only never had a prolonged poor stretch (posting double digit points each quarter) but saved his best for last, with 19 points in his final 23 regular season games (albeit only 10 in 17 playoff contests). Entering 2018-19 Connor’s “spot” still looks to be his to lose; the question is whether he’ll get better from here (and, if so, when), stay at this level, or suffer a sophomore slump to cause him to yield all-important playing time at even strength and with the man advantage to other Jets forwards, such as………

Nikolaj Ehlers (Previous career high scoring pace = 64 points)

After a 64 point rookie output, many had Ehlers pegged for 70+ points last season with a chance at a huge breakout. Instead, he regressed and landed at 60 points. It’s not difficult to explain why – two words: Kyle Connor. Connor’s presence cost Ehlers nearly 90 seconds of total ice time per game, with a third of the lost time coming on the man advantage. The question becomes whether Ehlers will have to continue to play under these limitations, since with his talent if given more ice time and a larger role he not only might best his career high by ten but could surge all the way to point-per-game output.

Alex Galchenyuk (Previous career high scoring pace = 59 points)

Before the June trade bringing him to Arizona, it would’ve been difficult to picture Galchenyuk doing much better for 2018-19 than the 51 points he posted last season. After all, despite a litany of criticisms and second guessing regarding seemingly all aspects of his effort and play, he ended up with a career high in PP ice time per game and saw similar overall ice time as when he posted his previous career best. On the upstart Coyotes, he should see more minutes and be leaned on for heavy scoring. And let’s not forget – before being injured during 2016-17, he had emerged with 22 points in his first 22 games, so the talent for top level production is there.

Yanni Gourde (Previous career high scoring pace = 64 points)

Not only did Gourde scoff at the concept of a rookie wall, he surprised many (this writer included) by not faltering after veteran Ondrej Palat returned, finishing with 38 points in his final 42 games. Yet one has to wonder if we might’ve already seen the best we’ll get from Gourde, unless he finds a way to do better than barely 16:00 per game and a tad over a third of Tampa’s available PP minutes he saw in 2017-18. And a very lofty 11.41% team shooting percentage at 5×5 doesn’t help quell concerns that his 64 points resulted from unsustainable good luck. Still, it’s tough to bet against Gourde after such a superb second half and with ice time that was low in part due to early season games well below his season average.

Bo Horvat (Previous career high scoring pace = 56 points)

Although Vancouver might be in for offensive struggles in the post-Sedin aftermath, Horvat should be given every chance to succeed. For a while there was concern he’d become Jonathan Toews 2.0 in fantasy, saddled with ample SH duty and being forced to play shut down defense while still trying to generate offense. But last season his percentage of time spent on the ice during the man advantage rose considerably (57%, up from 39% in 2016-17) while the opposite was the case on the PK (29% of the team’s SH minutes, down from 40% in 2016-17). If this trend continues and the Canucks are able to generate enough offense, Horvat should have a great shot at a big jump in his production.

Evander Kane (Previous career high scoring pace = 63 points)

As much attention as was paid to Kane’s 2017-18, we can’t lose sight of the fact that it wasn’t even his statistically best season. That being said, he did perform quite well when he arrived in San Jose, with 15 points in his final 18 games; and then he opted to sign with the Sharks rather than test the open market, where he may well have been able to sign for a higher price tag. It may be difficult to envision Kane posting 73 points, what with his tendency to take games off and get hurt, plus without the motivation of having to play well enough to earn his next contract; however, the talent is most certainly there.

Dylan Larkin (Previous career high scoring pace = 63 points)

Last season alone Larkin posted 16 more points than in his previous 116 games, placing him right back in the good graces of poolies who’d worried he might’ve been a flash in the pan. His 20 points in his final 24 games is a positive sign that 2018-19 could be even better; however, there’s still the issue of him never having posted more than eight PPPts in a season nor having taken the ice for 50% of his team’s time with the man advantage. Beyond that, Detroit has the makings of a team which will yet again struggle to score. Still, Larkin put the team on his shoulders last season and could do even more for 2018-19, which just so happens to be his magical fourth year.

J.T. Miller (Previous career high scoring pace = 58 points)

Following his trade to the Lightning, Miller acquitted himself to his new team right away and the results (20 points (11 goals) in his final 22 games) put equally wide smiles on the faces of both Lightning fans and those poolies who had owned Miller since day one and had seen him spin his wheels in New York. As great as the Tampa’s offense once again figures to be, and even with a fat new five-year contract in his back pocket, Miller could have difficulty seeing his points total rise enough to be ten better than last season’s career best scoring pace.

William Nylander (Previous career high scoring pace = 61 points)

Why should we expect Nylander to break out this season, since after all he didn’t manage to improve from his first full campaign despite playing nearly all his shifts with young star Auston Matthews? For one, Matthews missed a chunk of time last season, and a full year alongside Matthews should alone up Nylander’s total. But also the signing of John Tavares will create two powerful lines for the Leafs and, in turn, force teams not to necessarily put their best units against Matthews and Nylander. Also of note is it’s still only Nylander’s third full season, making a chance at a breakout more likely than had he passed his magical fourth season.

Kyle Palmieri (Previous career high scoring pace = 58 points)

With 18 points, including ten on the PP, in his final 22 games, Palmieri established himself as a weapon for the Devils to deploy alongside Taylor Hall at even strength or with the man advantage. Still only 27, Palmieri should have at least a couple of seasons to improve before slowing down due to age. The key with Palmieri is his Band-Aid Boy status, since to get your vote he needs to put up 67+ points and that, of course, requires him to stay healthy for the season. And considering he’s played in 71+ games only twice in his career, that might be a stretch.

Nick Schmaltz (Previous career high scoring pace = 54 points)

Thumbing his nose at a sophomore slump, Schmaltz instead saw his scoring rate spike while becoming fixture on a line with Patrick Kane. Schmaltz also was consistent through the season, which in his case meant 11-15 points in each quarter. But that came with upwards of 18 minutes per game and taking the ice for half of Chicago’s man advantage time. That means he’s already receiving top deployment and thus will have to take things up a notch in order to top his total from last season by 10+ points; and it’s not clear that can happen in only his third season, let alone on a Chicago team that might once again fall below expectations ala last season.

Ryan Spooner (Previous career high scoring pace = 57 points)

After following up a surprise 49-point season in 2015-16 with Boston – one which featured Spooner as a fixture on PP1 but also predominantly stuck with third line center duty at even strength – with a mere 39 points during 2016-17, it was not a major shock to see the Bruins deal the then impending RFA during the 2017-18 campaign. What did end up surprising poolies was Spooner’s explosion in the Big Apple after being dealt, as he posted 17 points in his final 21 games after emerging with four multi-point efforts in his first seven contests with the Rangers. What remains to be seen is if he can put together truly top level season once he inks what should be a contract that secures him a top six spot for the first time in his career.

Teuvo Teravainen (Previous career high scoring pace = 64 points)

Much of what was said last week about Sebastian Aho can be echoed here, as TT broke out for a career best then shined even brighter on the major stage of the IIHF World Championships (14 points in eight games). But in TT’s case he started with point per game output early in 2017-18 then had cooled by midseason, leaving poolies to wonder if he has the consistent effort level and explosiveness to make the leap ala Aho, or if instead he might just settle in as a player who’s good for points in the 60s each season. In this, his magical fourth year, we should find out.

Matthew Tkachuk (Previous career high scoring pace = 59 points)

Going into 2017-18 it was thought that Tkachuk would provide a nice combination of PIM and SOG while perhaps chipping in with second line scoring and a few PPPts. He easily exceeded those expectations, thanks in large part to working his way onto Calgary’s PP1, which helped him rise to 34 points in his final 40 contests despite still being a second line player at even strength. With a new coach in Calgary and the additions of Elias Lindholm and James Neal, the question remains as to whether Tkachuk can keep his coveted PP1 spot; however, odds are it’s his to lose and between that and more time on ice in general he might be able to surpass his career best by enough to deserve your vote.

. . . . . .

There are your 14 voting choices (15 if you count “none of them,” which this time I will list as a choice as well). As noted above, you can vote for as many or as few of them as you think will best their career high scoring total/rate by at least ten points this coming season. To vote, click here.

As with last week, when voting, be sure to also post in the thread about who you chose to vote for and why, as that way your fellow Dobberites can get better insight into your thought process and the Tournament can be as instructive as it is fun. See you back here next week for Tournament #3.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/cage-match-tournament-2018-breakout-players-week-2/