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writingsubmissions · 9 years ago

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UFC Fight Night 88 Preview

WHAT'S HAPPENING: *So, UFC 198 wound up being one of the better cards of the year in a lot of different ways - it was the biggest MMA card in the history of Brazil, with over 45,000 fans packing the arena in Curitiba, roughly the third-biggest card in UFC history, and mostly came through from top to bottom with a whole bunch of fun fights and dynamic performances. Unfortunately, the night didn't end in the way that most of those 45,000 would've preferred, as hometown boy Fabricio Werdum lost his UFC heavyweight belt in pretty sudden fashion, getting knocked out in the first round by Stipe Miocic. Werdum was hittable early, but nothing really seemed imminent until Werdum suddenly got aggressive and decided to chase down Miocic, hunting for the knockout with his hands down in a pretty stunning lapse of strategy. Miocic just backed up, nailed Werdum on the chin with a right, and after the Brazilian faceplanted, Miocic jumped out of the cage to be amongst his team, repeating to himself that he's the heavyweight champion. And yes, amazingly, he is. At 33, Miocic is relatively young for the weird-ass heavyweight division, and we'll see if he'll become the first man, somehow, to successfully defend the heavyweight title twice, though the knockout power of everyone in the division pretty much makes every fight a crapshoot. On the plus side, apparently we'll actually get a defense in relatively quick order for a change - one of the nice things about Miocic's win is how much his hometown of Cleveland, a city pretty much starved for champions, has embraced him after winning the belt, and apparently he'll get a chance to defend his heavyweight title there at UFC 203 in September. Things are still in the preliminary stage, but one would assume Alistair Overeem would be the challenger...can it be? Are we actually getting somewhat frequent, somewhat fresh heavyweight title fights? (And hey - late breaking stuff, UFC 203 will in fact be Miocic/Overeem in Cleveland on September 10th.)

*The co-main was somewhat interesting, in a way, in that it was less interesting than most probably expected going on. Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza ran through Vitor Belfort for a first-round finish, which isn't that surprising in itself, but most figured that Souza would at least have some trouble early, as Belfort is typically good for a one- to two-minute blitz before gassing himself out. But Belfort didn't even really provide that, as he was rather tentative before Souza eventually rushed in, worked for some ground and pound, and took care of business. So it was a fairly brutal one-sided win that seemingly cemented Jacare as the next top contender at middleweight, but more on that in a bit...

*Cris Cyborg made her long-awaited UFC debut, and it pretty much went as expected, as she more or less laid a beatdown on Leslie Smith. The only controversy was if the stoppage was early, which it probably was, especially in relation to some of the other referee calls on this card, but I'm of the mind that things will probably get worse before they get better, and this definitely seemed like this was one of those cases. So...now what? Cyborg didn't call out Ronda Rousey or anything (and there are seemingly more and more doubts about Rousey ever coming back, or at least anytime soon, if you read between the lines whenever she's brought up), and there's not really enough depth for a 145-pound division, so it looks like more catchweight bouts. Apparently UFC is actually already targeting Cyborg against Dutch kickboxer Germaine de Randamie for UFC 201, as de Randamie was actually the first choice for Smith's spot, but declined the fight in favor of a spot in her native Netherlands the week prior. But once UFC announced the bout, that was seemingly news to Cyborg, who seemed pretty set that she would be defending her Invicta featherweight belt for her next fight. UFC sometimes does stuff like this - a Nate Diaz/Matt Brown fight last summer fell apart (in a way, I guess) when UFC announced it without Diaz ever agreeing to it, so...we'll see how it all shakes out. Whether it's just due to her natural size or whatever she's taking, even a cut to 140 seems to be hell for Cyborg (who looked awful at weigh-ins but actually made 139), but she also stands to make more money fighting in UFC than dicking around in Invicta, so...the whole thing is just a mess.

*The Curitiba faithful also got two feel-good wins by aging legends that, in the process, sort of set back the light heavyweight division a bit. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira each looked better than they have in a while and got victories over Corey Anderson and Patrick Cummins, respectively, who are probably the two closest things that 205 has to prospects at the moment. Rua's win over Anderson was probably the less stark one, given that it was via close, somewhat controversial, split decision - Rua was basically only able to do things in bursts at this point, but given Anderson's complete struggles striking against anyone with a left hand, and his tendency to get rocked a bit once he gets hit, the judges basically weighed those brief moments more than Anderson's longer, if less effective, moments of control. Nogueira's win over Cummins was much more on the one-sided side of things, and somewhat reminiscent of Nogueira's older brother's win over Brendan Schaub a few years back, as Nogueira pretty much schooled Cummings on the feet before putting him away for the knockout in the late first round. Schaub's fatal flaw wound up being his complete inability to take a punch, and frankly, it looks like the same thing is going to hang over the career of Cummins, especially combined with the fact that Cummins is also one of the most hittable fighters in the UFC. While he could still improve defensively, this really does look like the end of thinking of Cummins as any sort of prospect with top-flight potential - while he's an athletic talent with some excellent wrestling, and still quite inexperienced in the sport, he's already 35 years old, so he may not be getting a whole lot better in the aggregate.

*And hey! There's a whole bunch more stuff that happened! Outside of Miocic, the one non-Brazilian to win on the card was, shockingly, Sage Northcutt killer Bryan Barberena, who was the biggest underdog on the card against rising prospect Warlley Alves. Whether it was the return to some old bad habits, or whether he just never got rid of those bad habits in the first place, Alves once again found himself trying to blow through an opponent in the first few minutes of a fight, and once Barberena was able to weather the storm, Alves basically gassed himself out and lost the decision. It'll be interesting to see where Alves goes from here - he's still only 25 with a bunch of physical advantages, so there's time to improve, but there's now also the chance he becomes an inconsistent one-round wonder like Diego Brandao or Erick Silva. Demian Maia capped off the prelims with a one-sided victory over Matt Brown - since Maia's gone back to embracing his grappling, he's been an entertaining and super-effective throwback, so effective at wrestling and BJJ that it doesn't really matter that his game is still relatively one-dimensional. At 38, Maia's somehow close to a welterweight title shot - there was a groundswell of support for him to get the nod over Tyron Woodley at UFC 201, but the Woodley bout eventually got finalized, so it looks like Maia's one win away. As far as other notable undercard stuff, Thiago Santos got a one-sided win over Nate Marquardt that was somewhat expected, John Lineker dominated a decision with Rob Font as his volume and power continue to carry up from 125 to 135, and Francisco Trinaldo won a decision over Yancy Medeiros in one of the better fights of the year, a crazy back and forth affair that saw Trinaldo tire himself out teeing off on the seemingly indestructible Medeiros, opening things up for rapid swings in momentum and probably the best bout since Lawler/Condit back at UFC 195.

*UFC 199 is seemingly cursed. Sadly, somewhat unsurprisingly, Chris Weidman is hurt and out of his title rematch with Luke Rockhold, so into the fray on two weeks notice steps...Michael Bisping, which, sure. Bisping's coming off a win over Anderson Silva, so he has as much momentum as he'll ever have, and it's a nice story that he won't wind up being the best UFC fighter to never earn a title fight - and as a bonus, Bisping's probably the one middleweight more than willing to go out there and promote the hell out of things. One just wishes that there was an obvious way for Bisping to win - Rockhold absolutely annihilated Bisping when the two first fought in late 2014 (which, in fact, did have a pretty amazing promotional build), and there really hasn't been much to suggest that the gap has narrowed. So, good for Bisping, but now he's gonna die. The featured prelim also took a hit, as the return of B.J. Penn hit yet another snag. After the slated Penn/Dennis Siver bout at UFC 196 got pushed back thanks to a sexual assault investigation on Penn, and Siver was forced to back out of the fight after it was rescheduled here, Penn has now been pulled by USADA for illegal use of an IV, which Penn apparently admitted to in his paperwork. The whole thing is just weird - IV's can be used for blood doping, but it does seem like Penn was just unaware of the new IV rules, as he listed everything on his paperwork and didn't try to hide his IV use. But, the question is, this apparently all happened in March, so why the hell did they wait two months to pull him? The whole thing is just weird, and it's probably for the best that Penn doesn't fight, but I guess we'll just have to prolong this whole depressing saga.

*Bellator news! The last few weeks have been kind of weird, and not so great for MMA's number two company. The big headline has been the company stripping two of its champions, taking the heavyweight belt off Vitaly Minakov and the lightweight belt off Will Brooks. The Minakov one was long overdue, as the Russian hasn't fought for the promotion in years and has basically ignored his contract to fight back home (on UFC Fight Pass, amusingly), but the Brooks one is fascinating, especially since he was concurrently let go from his contract. Brooks is probably a top-5 to top-10 lightweight in the world, but his fights aren't that exciting, so Bellator hasn't really put their promotional muscle behind him, even as he's beaten more notable fighters. So Brooks and Bellator have been feuding over that very fact, and with only a few months left on Brooks's contract, Bellator basically decided to take away all his leverage and just let him go outright. So it'll be interesting to see if Brooks, who mixes a bunch of talent with a lack of any real box office power, gets any interest from UFC, and where he goes from here. This was all announced a few hours before Bellator 154, which pretty much fell flat as far as being one of the company's "tentpole" events. Pretty much everything on the main card fell apart - Josh Thomson got hurt and was out of his bout against Michael Chandler, veteran heavyweight Sergei Kharitonov had to back out of his debut with an injury, hell, featherweight prospect Jordan Parsons got injured in a hit and run and subsequently died - so all that was left was really the main event of Phil Davis against King Mo Lawal, a plodding affair that saw Davis get an unconvincing decision win. Just a flat night all around, and things didn't get much better at Bellator 155 last week. The main event was a complete disaster, as what figured to be a middleweight title fight banger between Rafael Carvalho and Melvin Mahoef turned out to be a horrible five-round fight that saw Carvalho somehow get the decision despite not doing much of anything over the 25 minutes, and Bellator's plans for a women's featherweight division kind of all went to hell. When Bellator thought they might be getting Cris Cyborg, they signed up Marloes Coenen, a beloved Dutch veteran who's lost to Cyborg twice, but is pretty much the only other top-tier female featherweight of any note. So with Cyborg in UFC, Bellator decided to put Coenen against Julia Budd for the inaugural featherweight title, only for Budd to back out and get replaced by former UFC washout Alexis Dufresne. So of course Dufresne completely blew weight, somehow managed to tap out Coenen in a shocking upset, and now who the hell knows if there's any point in a Bellator women's featherweight division. What the hell are we doing here, Bellator.

*Paige VanZant finished second on this last season of "Dancing With The Stars". It'll be interesting to see how her fight career plays out from here, as she's basically made herself a bit of a mainstream star, even getting a role written for her in the upcoming "Kickboxer" remake based off her success on this show. So we'll see if she fights again - she was supposed to be on UFC 200, but her run this deep on DWTS scuttled that - or if she becomes another Gina Carano.

*And one last note, we have yet another USADA suspension, as Carlos Diego Ferreira got flagged on an out-of-competition test. Shrug. ------ BOOKINGS: *Outside of all the stuff mentioned above - Michael Bisping in for Chris Weidman at UFC 199, and Stipe Miocic/Alistair Overeem headlining UFC 203 in Cleveland this September - the biggest news is UFC officially announcing a whole bunch of fights for UFC 201. Robbie Lawler defending his welterweight title was officially, and to most, unfortunately announced as the main event, and the co-main event is a bit of a surprise for a few different reasons, as Demetrious Johnson will defend his flyweight title against Wilson Reis. First, it's a surprise that UFC would give Johnson another fight before TUF 24, which seems built around 16 flyweights trying to unseat the dominant champ, and secondly, Reis is a bit of an outside the box choice. While Reis is the highest-ranked guy coming off a win that Johnson hasn't beaten yet, he's also on all of a one-fight win streak, rebounding from a loss to Jussier Formiga with a decision win against Dustin Ortiz. Reis has looked good since cutting down to 125, and had a solid career at bantamweight, so good on him, but this one just came out of left field. As far as other fights announced for the card, Matt Brown already his next bout booked, and it'll be against Jake Ellenberger. Ellenberger's on a pretty bad skid since mid-2013, losing five out of six and seeming unable to pull the trigger, so if he can't find his old aggression, Brown could do very, very bad things to him. Plus top flyweight Ian McCall returns from a lengthy injury absence to face top prospect Justin Scoggins in a fight that could vault Scoggins to something huge, Francisco Rivera and Erik Perez square off in what should be a really fun bantamweight bout, and maybe, just maybe, Cris Cyborg will fight Germaine de Randamie, though as mentioned above, that whole thing is up in the air.

*C'mon, let's talk Nate and Conor. UFC seems to be targeting UFC 202 on August 20th in Vegas for the McGregor/Diaz rematch, and while McGregor seems to mostly be back in the fold, Diaz is now the problem. Diaz is demanding the McGregor treatment, as he forced Zuffa management to meet him in Stockton, California, and is now basically refusing to do the fight unless he gets the same cut of money and promotion as the Irishman. Who knows if Diaz is overplaying his hand, but I am enjoying Zuffa creating two monsters that they can't control as sort of a series finale if they do in fact wind up selling the company in the next few months.

*Alright, let's run down the more interesting fights announced in chronological order. With BJ Penn out, Alex Caceres steps in to face Cole Miller in what should be a fairly interesting little featherweight bout at UFC 199, even if it doesn't have anything near the Q rating of a Penn return. The cursed UFC run of diminished Japanese legend Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto continues, as he's once again hurt and out of a bout, this time against Chris Beal on the Ottawa card in late June - former Bellator featherweight champ and, thanks to a late injury, infamous UFC bantamweight title challenger Joe Soto will instead be looking for his first UFC win against Beal. UFC announced two flyweight bouts that don't appear to make much sense, as they basically put ex-title challengers against prospects that just figure to be overmatched - the Ottawa card will see Ali Bagautinov face Geane Herrera, who's an athletic freak, but has looked too raw and wild to be rushed into a spot like this, while promising TUF: Brazil 4 alum Matheus Nicolau will get thrown into the fire against John Moraga, who returns from a 14-month injury absence. I really don't know what UFC is doing here - these are huge opportunities for Herrera and Nicolau, but it really feels like UFC throwing them into the fire. The Sioux Falls card in mid-July got a few more interesting bouts - in what should be an awesome firefight between two rising bantamweights, reminiscent of the main event of this weekend, John Lineker and Michael McDonald will go at it in the co-main. TUF 22 winner and submission whiz Ryan Hall gets his first post-TUF fight against Alex White, who should actually be a tough out, although who knows with Hall's weird, one-dimensional game, and debuting regional champ Matthew Lopez gets a pretty interesting bantamweight bout against longtime Brazilian vet Rani Yahya. On the Chicago undercard, heavyweight Francis Ngannou fights debuting Serbian Bojan Mihajlovic, who was his scheduled opponent in Croatia this past April - Ngannou looks like the lower-tier heavyweight to watch out of all of UFC's recent signees, so it should just be interesting to see him evolve. And two cards later in the summer and fall have gotten their first bouts - the Hamburg show that kicks off September will see Swedish light heavyweight Ilir Latifi get the biggest test of his career against Ryan Bader, in what's surprisingly the only bout announced given that tickets are currently on sale, and UFC 202 may see the lightweight debut of former welterweight challenger Thiago Alves against Al Iaquinta. An outlet out of Brazil reported the fight was on, but apparently Iaquinta's camp hadn't even been offered the bout, so who knows. ----- ROSTER CUTS: 1) James Te Huna (16-9 overall, 5-5 UFC, last fought 3/19/16, L vs. Steve Bosse):New Zealand veteran James Te Huna called it quits this week after a 13-year career, and honestly, this was the right time to get out. Te Huna was a pretty solid veteran addition to the light heavyweight division, and after winning five out of six to kick off his UFC career, it looked like the company might have someone on their hands that could be a star in the region. But Te Huna just couldn't hang at that level - Glover Teixeira and Shogun Rua blew him out of the water, and when UFC decided to run a smaller show in Auckland centered about Te Huna in his middleweight debut, he completely spit the bit, getting tapped out in the first round by a past-his-prime Nate Marquardt. After that, Te Huna pretty much vanished for two years before resurfacing this past March and getting brutally knocked out by Steve Bosse, so with a four-fight losing streak in which he never really had a moment of looking good, Te Huna at read the tea leaves and got out when the getting was good.

2) Lucas Martins (16-3 overall, 4-3 UFC, last fought 4/10/16, W vs. Robert Whiteford):In what's probably not a good sign for UFC's future in Brazil, the company surprisingly decided not to offer a new contract to featherweight Lucas Martins, even coming off of a win. Martins is, frankly, just a good solid action fighter that UFC can use on cards in Brazil, but it's surprising they wouldn't want to keep him around, since his aggressive style and regional popularity is typically just the kind of thing UFC looks for in their fighters. But I guess with the Brazilian economy going to hell, they don't feel the need to keep so many Brazilian fighters around, and so Martins has surprisingly been cut loose.

3) Robert Whiteford (12-4 overall, 2-3 UFC, last fought 4/10/16, L vs. Lucas Martins):And, somewhat funnily enough, UFC also went ahead and cut Robert Whiteford, the last guy that Martins beat. Whiteford was pretty much just a solid, well-rounded featherweight, most notable for being UFC's first fighter to hail from Scotland. On the plus side, Whiteford at least got to fight on UFC's debut in Glasgow and get a one-sided win over Paul Redmond, which provided at least one more career highlight than a lot of undercard fighters get. ----- UPCOMING UFC SHOWS: 6/4 - UFC 199 - Inglewood, CA - Luke Rockhold ( c ) vs. Michael Bisping, Dominick Cruz ( c ) vs. Urijah Faber, Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas 6/18 - UFC Fight Night 89 - Ottawa, ON - Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson, Donald Cerrone vs. Patrick Cote 7/7 - UFC Fight Night 90 - Las Vegas, NV - Rafael dos Anjos ( c ) vs. Eddie Alvarez, Derrick Lewis vs. Roy Nelson 7/8 - TUF 23 Finale - Las Vegas, NV - Joanna Jedrzejczyk ( c ) vs. Claudia Gadelha 7/9 - UFC 200 - Las Vegas, NV - Daniel Cormier ( c ) vs. Jon Jones ( ic ), Miesha Tate ( c ) vs. Amanda Nunes, Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar 7/13 - UFC Fight Night 91 - Sioux Falls, SD - Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson, John Lineker vs. Michael McDonald 7/23 - UFC on Fox 20 - Chicago, IL - Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko, Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira, Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez 7/30 - UFC 201 - Atlanta, GA - Robbie Lawler ( c ) vs. Tyron Woodley, Demetrious Johnson ( c ) vs. Wilson Reis 9/3 - UFC Fight Night 92 - Hamburg, Germany - Ryan Bader vs. Ilir Latifi 9/10 - UFC 203 - Cleveland, OH - Stipe Miocic ( c ) vs. Alistair Overeem 12/3 - TUF 24 Finale - Las Vegas, NV - Joseph Benavidez vs. Henry Cejudo ----- UFC Fight Night 88 - May 29, 2016 - Mandalay Bay Events Center - Las Vegas, Nevada With the May pay-per-view happening a few weeks earlier than usual, UFC decided to go a different route this Memorial Day, and honestly, I'm a bit glad that they did. A Sunday night show is good enough, but they've also put together what looks like, at least on paper, one of the most fun cards of the year to date, what amounts to a card full of the action fights they'd use to open up a Fox show. There's some solid action veterans, plus this should also be a banner night for the bantamweight division, as two of its top young fighters, Thomas Almeida and Aljamain Sterling, basically bookend the show in what should be really solid bouts in what's finally becoming a division to watch. Excellent stuff here.

MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 9:00 PM ET): Bantamweight: (#7) Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt Featherweight: (#9) Jeremy Stephens vs. (#2 Bantamweight) Renan Barao Welterweight: (#10) Tarec Saffiedine vs. (#11) Rick Story Middleweight: Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda Welterweight: Lorenz Larkin vs. Jorge Masvidal Lightweight: Joshua Burkman vs. Paul Felder

PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1 - 7:00 PM ET): Women's Bantamweight: (#6) Sara McMann vs. (#7) Jessica Eye Lightweight: Jordan Rinaldi vs. Abel Trujillo Middleweight: Jake Collier vs. Alberto Uda Lightweight: Shane Campbell vs. Erik Koch

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 6:00 PM ET): Bantamweight: (#4) Aljamain Sterling vs. (#8) Bryan Caraway Heavyweight: Chris De La Rocha vs. Adam Milstead

THE RUNDOWN: Thomas Almeida (20-0 overall, 4-0 UFC) vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0 overall, 3-0 UFC): This should be an absolute firecracker. It was a bit surprising when this fight was announced as the main event of the card, but it's easy to see why it was - from a fight perspective, this should be an amazingly exciting striking battle for however long it lasts, and from a name value perspective, Almeida and Garbrandt are two guys, each 24 years old, that UFC should obviously start getting behind - Almeida's a ridiculously talented and exciting striker who's the next big hope of Brazilian MMA, while Garbrandt has a marketable look and might have the best skillset of all the bantamweight prospects if he fully reaches his potential. Almeida may not be the best overall prospect at bantamweight at the moment, but he's definitely the most tantalizing - he came into UFC with a 16-0 record, with all 16 wins coming via finish, and he's pretty much continued that streak in his brief UFC tenure. Things actually got dulled a bit in his UFC debut, back in November of 2014, against the relatively anonymous Tim Gorman, since Gorman actually managed to survive all three rounds and touch Almeida up a bit. But it just turns out that Gorman must be ridiculously tough, since nobody's been able to withstand the Brazilian's barrage whenever he gets going in every fight since. 2015 saw UFC start to put Almeida in some pretty prominent spots, and he came through with three straight impressive victories - all by knockout in the late first or early second - two of which were some of the best highlight reel KOs of the year, as he uncorked a beautiful flying knee to put away Brad Pickett in July, then followed that with a punch on Anthony Birchak that had Birchak looking like someone had cut the strings off of a marionette - beautifully violent stuff. That's not to say it's all been gravy - while Almeida is one of the most offensively gifted fighters out there, able to chain together some insane combinations, there are some flaws, as he's shown to be a bit of a slow starter that can get hit as he feels things out (the Pickett win was the starkest example of this, as Almeida was pretty clearly losing the fight before uncorking that knee), and Almeida just generally doesn't seem to be anywhere near as good defensively as he is on offense. Plus, his ground game is a complete unknown, as it has yet to be tested at any sort of high level. But that said, none of that has seemed to matter thus far, and we'll see if it does against Cody Garbrandt, who doesn't have the hype or the resume of Almeida yet, but might be just as solid a prospect. Garbrandt's pretty much the next (and possibly last?) big prospect out of Urijah Faber's Team Alpha Male - well, him and Paige VanZant, which makes it pretty awkward that the two broke up a little under a year ago. But anyway, Garbrandt's been known as a fighter to watch ever since his UFC debut on the first card of 2015, and while it's been somewhat touch and go, Garbrandt's acquitted himself well in three UFC victories. Garbrandt comes out of Ohio with most of his formal pedigree as an accomplished high school wrestler, but he's focused more on striking, both in pivoting to an amateur boxing career for a few years, and in how he's fought in his MMA career thus far. While he could probably have a well-rounded game, Garbrandt's more focused on going head hunting, and it's been a mixed bag - his UFC debut against Marcus Brimage (who seemed to be the first test for every prospect at 135 or 145 upon their entry into UFC) was an exciting brawl that was actually probably going Brimage's way before Garbrandt was able to get the finish in the last minute of the fight, and his subsequent fight against Henry Briones saw him come out fairly tentative, methodically working his way to a pretty lackluster, if clear, decision win against what figured to be an overmatched foe. But he rectified that a bit in his last fight in Pittsburgh, where he was essentially a hometown favorite - admittedly, it was against late injury replacement Augusto Mendes, but Garbrandt pretty much took care of work, teeing off when he had to and getting a fairly quick, one-sided victory. So, yeah, this matchup is fascinating as all hell. Almeida, as of now, has very clearly defined strengths and weaknesses, and is probably the better overall fighter, but he also takes a while to get going and has those defensive flaws, and Garbrandt is definitely dangerous enough to exploit them. And in the other corner, Garbrandt's still a lot more potential over production, so it'll be fascinating to see how he's evolved since his last fight, and how he hangs in there against the toughest test of his career. Add in all the other questions - will Garbrandt finally use his wrestling to test a completely unknown aspect of Almeida's game? Is Garbrandt tough enough to withstand Almeida once he gets going, and what happens if he does - Almeida's toughest fight thus far was probably against Gorman, only because Gorman was tough enough to hang in there. Just a ton of ways this one could go, and when you add in the fact that this is five rounds of guys who are pretty much always looking to press the action, this has the potential to be one of the best fights of the year.

Jeremy Stephens (24-12 overall, 11-11 UFC) vs. Renan Barao (33-3 [1] overall, 8-2 UFC, 2-0 WEC): On a night that should be pretty meaningful for the bantamweight division, it's somewhat amusing that the highest-ranked bantamweight on the card is Renan Barao, who isn't a bantamweight at all anymore, as the former division kingpin makes his debut up a weight class at 145 here. Barao looked unstoppable as recently as two years ago, where he was reigning over the bantamweight division during a 9-year, 33-fight unbeaten streak, but massive underdog T.J. Dillashaw upset him in shockingly one-sided fashion, outquicking the champ on the feet for about 22 minutes before putting Barao away with a knockout punch. A rematch was more of the same, and while Barao probably could've stuck around as a top-five bantamweight, he pretty much couldn't handle the speed of Dillashaw (or, now, Dominick Cruz) at the top of the division, and given Barao's huge weight cuts and teammate Jose Aldo no longer reigning atop the 145-pound division, Barao decided to move up a weight class. And UFC's thrown him a pretty interesting curveball, as Barao is going from being a huge 135er to facing one of the largest guys at 145, former lightweight Jeremy Stephens. The Iowan (who has since relocated to San Diego) has had a pretty long and storied UFC career, as despite just turning 30, Stephens already has close to a decade in the promotion. Stephens was a welcome addition to most cards and a UFC favorite for his durability and tendency to turn fights into fun brawls, but after so many years, Stephens was going nowhere at 155 and decided to drop down to 145 in 2013. Early returns were pretty excellent - Stephens earned one-sided wins over Estevan Payan and Darren Elkins along with a 40-second KO of Rony Jason - and while it looks like Stephens has already plateaued at 145, he's gotten a lot farther than he ever did at lightweight, establishing himself as sort of an upper-tier gatekeeper at featherweight that can give a fun brawl with the top handful of guys in the division and turn away everyone else. And that'll really be the story here, as Stephens provides an excellent benchmark for where Barao will wind up in his new division, especially since the stylistic matchup is very much the opposite of what Barao experienced when he was at bantamweight. Inspired stuff, and the fact that this could wind up being a fun fight in the process is somewhat of a bonus.

Tarec Saffiedine (16-4 overall, 2-1 UFC, 7-1 Strikeforce) vs. Rick Story (18-8 overall, 11-6 UFC): It looks like we're actually getting this fight, but not without some sweating - each of these guys is oft-injured, and Saffiedine suffered a leg injury that looked like it might force him to pull out of the bout this past weekend, but, thankfully, it looks like we're good to go. Strikeforce created a whole bunch of stars and top-tier fighters, and it looked like Belgium's Tarec Saffiedine was going to be the final name on that list - "Sponge", so nicknamed due to his ability to pick up things quickly, did exactly that and went from relatively anonymous undercard fighter to the company's welterweight champion, earning a one-sided decision over Nate Marquardt in the promotion's last-ever fight. But Saffiedine's UFC run has seen him lose all of his momentum, pretty much all thanks to injuries - Saffiedine's fought only three times in the last three and a half years, and while there's no shame in losing to Rory MacDonald in rather one-sided fashion, that's also basically been the one chance he's had at a prominent fight in UFC thus far. After missing all of 2015, Saffiedine returned in late January to take on Jake Ellenberger, and the results were...eh - Ellenberger continued to look fairly shot as a fighter, but Saffiedine didn't really pull the trigger himself, instead cruising to an efficient, if boring, decision win. So hopefully Saffiedine has now shaken the rust off, though now Rick Story has to do the same, as the Pacific Northwest native is returning from a career-long twenty month layoff. After dropping his UFC debut to John Hathaway back at UFC 99, Story suddenly stormed the welterweight division, working his way up the ranks with a surprising six-fight win streak that was capped off with an upset of former title challenger Thiago Alves. But, just as shockingly, Story wound up taking a late-notice fight against Charlie Brenneman and got upset himself, and after that was pretty much three years in the wilderness, where Story more or less traded wins and losses and looked to be settling in as a middle of the card fighter. But after a loss to Kelvin Gastelum, Story changed things up and moved camp to Arizona, and the results have been pretty promising, as Story actually looks to be fighting intelligently and maximizing his strong wrestling game. His first bout with his new team was pretty much a tune-up win, as he more or less ran through late injury replacement Leonardo Mafra, but Story came through huge a few months later in the main event of a smaller show in Stockholm, basically running a truck through every hole in Gunnar Nelson's game and dominating the Icelander with his combination of boxing and straight-ahead wrestling. But, sadly, Story hasn't been able to follow up on that momentum - a fight with Erick Silva was scheduled a few different times, but thanks to visa issues with Silva and then just Story getting hurt, Story missed all of 2015 and finally comes back here. So, now that each man has apparently made it to this bout intact, it's a fascinating one - Story should have the wrestling advantage and has typically been the more aggressive of the two, but given the long layoff, who knows how he looks, and Saffiedine does have the much longer history of fighting smarter and more technical. Really fun matchmaking, and hopefully, please, the winner can stay healthy enough to put together some momentum in the division.

Chris Camozzi (23-10 overall, 8-7 UFC) vs. Vitor Miranda (12-4 overall, 3-1 UFC): Middleweight is weird and this fight is weird and the fact that it's relevant is weird, but it should at least be pretty entertaining. 37-year old Vitor Miranda is a going concern, and I don't think anyone expected that coming off of TUF: Brazil 3 - while Miranda was a fan favorite thanks to his personality and an emotional backstory involving the loss of his son, he was also a kickboxer who sporadically fought in MMA over the last decade-plus, and didn't seem like much of a prospect. But after losing the heavyweight finals of the season in rather one-sided fashion, Miranda cut all the way down to 185 and has managed to reel off three straight wins, all come from behind knockouts, against Jake Collier, Clint Hester, and Marcelo Guimaraes. None of those wins are particularly great, but they're all solid, and now Miranda moves on to face the platonic ideal of the solid middleweight, Colorado's Chris Camozzi. This is Camozzi's third stint with UFC, and he's pretty much the living emblem of the greater part of the 185-pound division, as he's just pretty much a normal dude that's not particularly great or poor in any one area. Pretty much all of Camozzi's fights just take place on the feet at a decent pace, and a great majority of them are close decisions - which was great when he managed to ride a four fight win streak in 2012 going into 2013, but not so much when he lost four straight fights right after that. Camozzi's actually coming off of what might've been the most one-sided win of his UFC career - admittedly, it was over a completely shot Joe Riggs, but Camozzi immediately destroyed Riggs with knees and ended the fight in just 26 seconds. Still, I wouldn't expect a ton of finishing ability out of Camozzi, but this should be a pretty solid striking battle, and again, the winner will actually become strangely relevant at 185.

Lorenz Larkin (16-5 [1] overall, 3-5 UFC, 4-0 [1] Strikeforce) vs. Jorge Masvidal (29-10 overall, 6-3 UFC, 5-2 Strikeforce, 2-1 Bellator): An interesting bout between two guys who could probably use a win to stay relevant, though one gets the feeling this was more put together due to the fireworks it promises rather than any attempt to move each guy up the ladder. Lorenz Larkin's had a weird go of it in UFC - he looked like one of the brighter prospects that the company was getting when they absorbed Strikeforce, as Larkin was technically undefeated, as a loss to King Mo at light heavyweight got overturned due to a steroid suspension, and Larkin rebounded by cutting down to 185 and beating Robbie Lawler. But for whatever reason, Larkin just didn't have it - he probably deserved the decision in his debut loss to Francis Carmont, and he did handle Chris Camozzi rather easily, but Larkin went on a three fight skid and just looked flat, nothing like the dynamic striker that rose his way up the Strikeforce light heavyweight ranks. It looked like a last-ditch effort when Larkin announced he was cutting even further to 170 in his first fight of 2015, but for whatever reason, it seemed to be just what Larkin's career needed, as he sparked John Howard, won a fun as hell fight over Santiago Ponzinibbio, and acquitted himself quite well in a decision loss to Albert Tumenov this past January. While it doesn't look like Larkin will wind up being a championship-level fighter, especially in a division as deep at welterweight, he's still done quite well for himself to rehab his career and settle in as an above-average action fighter. And that's about where Jorge Masvidal is, although there's still some feeling out to do as far as how the Cuban-American looks moving up to 170. Masvidal's a pretty interesting story - he came up in the same Miami street-fighting scene that spawned Kimbo Slice, but wound up becoming a much more legitimate mixed martial artist out of it, eventually developing a much more well-rounded arsenal than what'd you expect from someone with that background, although his tendency to basically not plan for his opponents and just try and do whatever comes naturally in the cage can sometimes get him into trouble. After a controversial close loss to Al Iaquinta about a year ago, Masvidal basically decided it wasn't worth cutting the extra weight and moved up a class from lightweight, and returns have been pretty solid so far - he took care of Cezar "Mutante" Ferreira in pretty short order, and nearly took a decision off fellow converted lightweight Benson Henderson in Seoul this past November. So all in all, this should be a pretty fun bout - Larkin's a vicious striker who thankfully has learned to pull the trigger again, and while Masvidal has a deeper bag of tricks, he still brings that aggressive, street-fighting mentality. On a card that has a ton of fun-looking fights, this one is earmarked as one of the more fun ones.

Joshua Burkman (28-12 [1] overall, 6-7 [1] UFC) vs. Paul Felder (11-2 overall, 3-2 UFC): Sure, why not. Pennsylvania's Paul Felder is trying to work his way back up the ladder - he basically made a name for himself with a beautiful spinning back fist KO of Danny Castillo, which more or less caused UFC to rush him into too much, too soon, as he was competitive but clearly lost decisions to Edson Barboza and Ross Pearson. And even his bounceback win over Daron Cruickshank was a bit iffy, as Cruickshank was more or less getting the better of things on the feet before diving in for a takedown and getting submitted in the process. So Felder is more prospect than contender at this point, and thankfully UFC isn't rushing him back into the deep end, giving him a solid test in longtime vet Joshua (no longer Josh, apparently) Burkman. Burkman got cut by UFC all the way back in 2008 but actually managed to work his way back to the big leagues in 2015, although early returns weren't that great, as the best performance of his first three fights was a fun, if decisive, loss to Patrick Cote. It was somewhat surprising that UFC brought him back for a fourth try, and even more surprisingly, that Burkman was cutting to 155, and, well, Burkman finally got his comeback UFC win, even if it was in an absolutely awful fight against K.J. Noons that saw Burkman look ridiculously drained. But hey, a win's a win, and Burkman gets to stick around as a bit of a veteran gatekeeper, and that's exactly what he is here. And while Felder is a fun enough fighter to make this a solid bout on his own, hopefully Burkman's weight cut goes better this time around, and this can be a fun back and forth fight.

Sara McMann (8-3 overall, 2-3 UFC, 1-0 Invicta) vs. Jessica Eye (11-4 [1] overall, 1-3 [1] UFC, 3-0 Bellator): Well, this is something - not only is it a pretty interesting style matchup, but each of these two women are coming off two straight losses, so this may, despite the rankings involved, be a fight where the winner is saving their UFC job. Frankly, Sara McMann's UFC career has been a disappointment, as she came in with a ton of hype as the 2004 Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling and never really made good on it, either in the cage or in the promotional department. After winning her UFC debut in one-sided fashion over Sheila Gaff, there was a lot of hope that her credentials could make her the Ronda Rousey-killer, but UFC wound up throwing McMann in there with the champ, and it didn't really work out at all - McMann basically refused any promotional work for the bout, resulting in Rousey's most disappointing fight at the box office, and Rousey then put away McMann with a knee to the body in a little over a minute. And since then, things haven't gone much better - McMann's lone win in three fights was a controversial decision over Lauren Murphy, and bouts against Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes have seen McMann get blitzed on the feet, and, in the case of the Tate fight, actually outwrestled en route to losses. So while McMann is an excellent wrestler, the same may not be true of her as a fighter, although those credentials still serve her well against the majority of the division. On the other side of things, we have Cleveland's Jessica Eye, who somewhat surprisingly hasn't had that much UFC success, even though she's thought of as a perennial fringe contender. Eye had a pretty solid run fighting for Bellator and some other organizations, and came in with a rep as an excellent striker when UFC picked her up. And while that's true, there's been a litany of issues that have kept Eye back from reaching the very top of the division - she doesn't seem to have much in the way of takedown defense, which a bunch of fighters have been able to exploit, and even though she has a solid toolbox of skills, there doesn't seem to be much strategy involved, particularly after she gets taken down - it just seems to be Eye doing whatever comes to mind than working towards bettering her situation. So it's classic striker-versus-grappler stuff between two of UFC's more frustrating female fighters - hopefully one finally puts it all together and can get some momentum off of this win, but I'm also not expecting it.

Jordan Rinaldi (12-4 overall) vs. Abel Trujillo (13-7 [1] overall, 5-2 [1] UFC): Hopefully this one at least provides some good action. Abel Trujillo should, by all rights, be a fan favorite, as he's one of the more fun and explosive fighters on the roster - Trujillo just pretty much goes for it, throwing everything at his opponent for a good round or round and a half before gassing himself out, which has resulted in some pretty great finishes and some pretty fun brawls. But, sadly, Trujillo isn't all that easy to root for - he can be somewhat of an asshole inside the cage (see: his illegal knee that resulted in a no contest against Roger Bowling) and has a fairly concerning past outside of it, with some pretty terrible accusations of domestic violence. But as a fighter, flawed as he is, Trujillo's done enough to stick around at a pretty decent level in UFC, and he gets what might be a bit of a tune-up here, as a USADA suspension has taken Diego Ferreira out and put newcomer Jordan Rinaldi in. Rinaldi's a fairly decent, well-rounded fighter with a decent resume - while his current five-fight win streak comes after a pretty rough stretch, two of those losses are to guys currently in the UFC, plus he has a 2010 win over current top-ten featherweight Dennis Bermudez - but he projects as more of a mid-level prelim fighter than any sort of stud prospect, and he gets a pretty tough matchup here in Trujillo, who should have all the physical advantages. Maybe Rinaldi can either weather the storm or tag Trujillo early - Trujillo does seem to have the mentality of caving in as soon as a fight's momentum turns against him - but more likely than not, it'll probably be a win by the UFC veteran.

Jake Collier (9-3 overall, 1-2 UFC) vs. Alberto Uda (9-0 overall): This could wind up being a pretty fun fight under everyone's radar. This was initially supposed to be Collier against the long-injured Keith Berish, but Berish got injured again almost as soon as the fight was announced, opening the door for UFC to sign Brazil's Alberto Uda. And Uda's a pretty fascinating prospect - he has an extensive background in Muay Thai, and his MMA career has gone pretty well thus far, as almost all of his wins have come via finish, and it's come against a shockingly solid slate of fighters, included TUF: Brazil vets Thiago Perpetuo and Richardson Moreira. His clinch game is obviously his one big plus skill, and it'll be interesting to see how it goes against Jake Collier, who figures to be the much more well-rounded fighter. Honestly, there's not too much to say about Collier, though he's had fun fights pretty much every time out in his UFC tenure - he's big, athletic, tough, and pretty much decent at everything, so the big takeaway is typically "That fight was fun, and Jake Collier is competent." So he should be a pretty solid benchmark to see exactly where Uda can come in at 185, and it'll probably be fun in the process. Works for me.

Shane Campbell (12-4 overall, 1-2 UFC) vs. Erik Koch (14-4 overall, 3-3 UFC, 3-1 WEC): Can it be? Is Erik Koch back? Koch's been one of the more notoriously injured fighters during his UFC tenure, and it even cost him a title shot all way back in 2012. Back when UFC's featherweight division was still in its relative infancy, UFC basically looked around and found that the best contender for Jose Aldo was Iowa's Koch, an exciting striker who had put together a four fight winning streak, but was nobody's real idea of a contender. And, thanks to injuries to both Koch and Aldo, the fight, rumored for three or four different cards, never took place, and Koch didn't even fight in 2012. Koch then had a good run of health for about two years, amazingly, even if the results weren't all that great - he lost his contender status with one-sided losses to Ricardo Lamas and Dustin Poirier, then became one of the first guys to move up in weight, starting a two-fight run at lightweight that ended with a disappointing loss to Daron Cruickshank. That fight was over two years ago, so it's hard to know what to expect from Koch - he was always a pretty exciting fighter, but given that he's just been injured at the time of his career where he's supposed to be peaking, you just kind of have to shrug. Canada's Shane Campbell should bring the fight to him, though - a former kickboxer and Canadian Muay Thai champion, Campbell's carved out a bit of a niche as part of UFC's cavalcade of action lightweights who are durable strikers that can put on pretty good fights. Like some of the other fights on this card, Campbell's basically going to serve as a benchmark for where his opponent is at the moment, and the bonus is that it should wind up being a pretty fun fight.

Aljamain Sterling (12-0 overall, 4-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-7 overall, 5-2 UFC, 0-2 WEC, 2-0 Strikeforce): A really interesting "Fight Pass main event" here, especially since, well, these two guys might actually be better than the two bantamweights in the main event. In a division rapidly filling up with interesting prospects, Long Island's Sterling is probably the best of them, a former JUCO wrestling teammate of Jon Jones who's taken to the MMA game almost as well as the former champ. And while that's an insanely high standard, Sterling's kind of deserved it - while he hasn't had the flashy, crushing finishes that Jones has coming up, his striking game is coming along nicely, and Sterling might be the best guy in the division at getting the takedown, smothering foes, and working for all sorts of unorthodox submissions, like his inverted arm triangle against Takeya Mizugaki, or the standing guillotine choke he busted out against Johnny Eduardo in December. But for all his talent, Sterling has been mired in the prelims, which raised some interesting stuff once Sterling decided to test free agency earlier in the year about why UFC wasn't pushing a guy with a ton of natural talent, some solid charisma, and a guy who could potentially appeal to the young, black demographic. It does look like UFC is starting to get behind Sterling a bit - there's been a bunch of online promotion for this prelim bout, but it still is a bit odd that Sterling's probably the best of the prospect bunch yet has had the least number of chances to shine. That all said, there's an interesting test in front of him in Bryan Caraway, who's been relatively inactive lately, but not thanks to injury - he's basically turned into a full-time coach for his girlfriend, current women's bantamweight champ Miesha Tate. In fact, for years Caraway has been better known for either being "Mr. Miesha Tate" or some of the weird incidents surrounding him - allegations that, say, he elbowed Cat Zingano in the head backstage before her bout against Tate, or the time he fish-hooked Erik Perez to sink in a choke - but he's actually turned himself into a pretty underrated fighter. Once pretty much a one-dimensional submission expert, Caraway's filled out his game with enough striking to get by, and while he's probably not a future champ, the overall package makes him a deserving top ten fighter, even as bantamweight starts to get new blood. So this'll be an interesting test for Sterling in particular - Caraway's probably one of the few grapplers that can at least survive with Sterling on the ground, so it's a chance for the "Funk Master" to see just how far his striking has come, and maybe respond to some adversity. And with a win, it'll be really fascinating to see where UFC decides to go with Sterling next - will he finally get the showcase fight that, frankly, he definitely deserves?

Chris De La Rocha (4-1 overall, 0-1 UFC) vs. Adam Milstead (7-1 overall): This is UFC continuing to throw heavyweights against the wall and seeing who sticks. Chris De La Rocha was a fairly odd signing when UFC picked him up, but when you need an injury replacement at heavyweight, you'll take what you can get - De La Rocha's a good athlete and aggressive, but he came into UFC with only a 4-0 record, is already 37, and his UFC debut saw him get blown out of the water in under a minute, so, well, who knows. Adam Milstead's a more traditional heavyweight prospect, another giant athlete himself who's spent the last few years working out of Pittsburgh and developing a pretty decent striking game. But it's heavyweight, so it'll probably be these two guys slugging it out until one of them drops, which, sure, works for me.

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