#to continue putting his life at risk (despite finally getting the four star ball) to revive bora FOR upa. because Goku’s being there is what

[controlaltdelete-my-existence]

Mercenary Tao arc everything you could’ve been…

[slytherinbarnes]

Sub Rosa [100]

xvi. the last war

Pairing: Bellamy Blake x reader

Word Count: 8.3k

Warnings: violence, fighting, death, blood, angst, language, anxiety.

Summary: the last war is here, can you stop it before it’s too late?

a/n: 100!!!! I WROTE 100 CHAPTERS!!! YOU READ 100 CHAPTERS!!!! WE DID IT!!!! HOW ARE WE FEELING!!!! PLEASE CHECK THE END FOR MORE NOTES!!!! 

previous chapter // season masterlist // series masterlist

The tension in the elevator is heavy as you and Clarke slip into Wanheda and Wanlida mode.

It’s hard to believe that you’ve always been so eager to distance yourself from Wanlida, but in the last few years, you’ve found yourself welcoming her with open arms. And it’s a far cry from doing better for Monty, and trying to create lasting peace, but with your niece lying limply in a chair, left alone, you don't care about any of that. You’re willing to kill anyone that gets in your way, do better be damned, because no one messes with your family. 

Bellamy, Levitt, and Octavia hang back a little, noting the anger in yours and Clarke’s expressions, none of them wanting to get in your way and risk your wrath. As the elevator lifts to level 2, Octavia leans forward to pass you her gun, giving you two weapons to work with. Levitt watches the exchange and then says, “The Shepherd’s unit will be with him guarding the door.”

“Too bad for them.”

Clarke lifts her jacket and pulls two grenades from her pockets, taken from the fallen victims of Sheidheda, and as soon as Levitt sees them, he looks at her with disappointment. “Grenades? So more killing, that’s the answer?”

Clarke doesn't turn to face him, just squares up and readies for the door to open. You spare him a quick glance over your shoulder, expression hard when you counter, “It’s what we do.”

You lock eyes with Bellamy before turning back to the front, and he offers you a nod of approval, agreeing with what you and Clarke are about to do. You nod back, wishing there was time for the two of you to have more of a proper reunion, to talk about everything that’s happened in the last few days, but there isn’t time right now. Earlier today you had too much time on your hands, leaving you anxious and waiting, and now you don’t have enough of it, causing you to leave so much with Bellamy unresolved. You shake your head to clear your thoughts, pushing them aside for later. Right now, as the elevator stops on the second level, you have more important things on your mind. 

Justice.

Clarke steps out of the elevator first, turning to make sure you’re following, and when she sees that you are, she continues towards the Stone Room. You lift your two pistols, hearing the others step out of the elevator behind you, all of you watching as Clarke throws both grenades down the hall, right outside the Stone Room. As the two of you round the corner, side by side, you step through the smoke from the explosions, shooting anyone that moves or turns towards you. 

You take out disciple after disciple with ease, the two of you killing them before most of them can even lift their weapons. When you round the last corner, you both pause in front of the door, turning to look at the others. Octavia is leaning down to grab a sword, Levitt is looking around with distress, and Bellamy is holding a gun in his hand, his back to you, already covering your backs. Clarke glances at Octavia and Levitt and says, “Cover us.”

They both nod, moving into position as Clarke turns to look at you. You lift your hand, hovering it over the button to the door, looking at her closely. “You ready?”

She nods, “Stronger together.”

And then you hit the button, quickly getting back into position as the door slides open, revealing the Stone Room, drowning in the light. Your weapons lower as your eyes land on the Anomaly Stone, now a large, glowing ball of white light, no one else in the room around you. As you stare at the stone, you can feel the crushing weight of disappointment, and you whisper, “We’re too late.”

Clarke turns towards you, distress crossing her features for half a second before it settles into determination. “Maybe not.”

You give her a look, already aware of what she’s thinking, but Levitt shakes his head, not understanding. “What do you mean?”

“She wants to go in after him.”

Bellamy steps towards the two of you, his tone skeptical. “Clarke, you have no idea what you could face when you step in there.”

You already know there’s no way you’re going to change her mind, which is why you add, “At least let us go with you.”

��No. I have to do this.” She gives you a serious look, adding, “Alone.”

You sigh, looking at her, thinking of the grief she’s going to carry if she can't avenge Madi, and you understand it. It's the same grief you carried when you thought Bellamy was dead or when you thought you lost Clarke to Josephine. Which is why you nod at her, relenting, allowing her to do what she needs to do. “Fine. But we’re waiting just outside the door. We’ll keep the halls clear for you.”

She reaches out and pulls you into a hug, whispering into the crook of your neck, “Thank you, la lune.”

You pull away and smile at her, any anger you had for her gone now that Bellamy is alive and well, and your focus instead on avenging Madi. “I love you, my shining star. Be careful.”

“I will.”

She starts to step towards the bright light, before pausing and turning to face Bellamy, her face pulled into one of regret. “I’m sorry for shooting you, Bellamy, and I’m really glad you’re okay.”

Bellamy nods, smiling at her a little, before motioning towards the light. “Go get that son of a bitch, and make him pay for what he did to our family.”

Clarke nods and gives you one last look before turning and walking towards the stone, reaching out to touch the bright light, which quickly consumes her. Once she’s gone, you turn to face the others. “We can’t let anyone get close.”

Everyone agrees and you all file into the hall again, looking around. They all turn to you, looking for your direction, and you motion towards the fallen disciples. “Levitt, Octavia, gather all the weapons.”

They start to move down the hall, grabbing anything that might be useful to the rest of you, and you turn to look at Bellamy, pointing to a long table at the other end of the hall. “Let’s use that to make a barrier.”

“Good idea.”

The two of you jog down the hall and grab the table, carrying it back to the other end and tipping it on its side, making a makeshift shield large enough for the four of you to duck behind. As soon as you get it set up, Octavia and Levitt come back with an armful of weapons each, discarding them behind your shield in case you need them. And then the four of you take up your positions behind it, getting comfortable as you wait. Octavia braces her back against the table legs, and Levitt settles in beside her. You and Bellamy move to lean against the wall, sitting in a position that’ll allow you to duck behind the shield if you need it. 

The four of you sit in silence before Bellamy makes a small sound, reaching into his pockets as he moves. You turn towards him, curious, watching as he pulls a knife and a holster from his pocket. “Almost forgot to give this to you.”

“My knife!” You take it from him with a wide smile, immediately moving to put the holster on. “Where’d you get it?”

“When I was escaping from my hospital room, I went through the cabinets to find some clothes. That was tucked in the back, along with your old clothes.”

“I didn't think I'd ever get it back.” You pull the knife from the holster, eyeing the notches on the handle as you do. Thirteen in total, missing the two disciples you killed with it when you tried to escape. You run your fingers over the lines and mutter, “It’s missing two.”

Octavia digs around the pile of weapons before producing a knife, which she leans forward to hand you. You take it with a smile of thanks, already beginning to add the two additional tallymarks when Levitt gets an idea. He runs his fingers through the ash on the wall behind you and Bellamy, courtesy of one of the grenades, before he moves back towards Octavia. “Can’t go to war without your war paint.”

He starts to smudge the ash over her face, using it to draw the same warpaint she wore when she fought in the Final Conclave. You and Bellamy watch the pair, feeling a little awkward by the intimacy of the moment, but it reminds you so much of Orlando painting symbols on your face the night before you jumped to Bardo. Which makes you think of Gabriel, dead, his body still stuck in a partially collapsed bunker. You look at Levitt and ask, “Can I ask you something?”

He nods, and you slide your knife back into its holster just as he finishes with Octavia’s make up, turning to face you fully. “If Clarke takes the test and we pass, will Gabriel transcend too? Even though he’s dead?”

“No. Shepherd's passage, ‘Book of Bardo’, Chapter 1, Verse 6. ‘Death is the end, my friend. Only the living shall transcend.’”

You sigh, and Bellamy looks at you in confusion, reaching out to touch your arm. “Wait, Gabriel’s dead?”

You turn to face him, completely forgetting that he has no idea what all of you have gone through since leaving him on Sanctum. “Sheidheda showed up to kill Madi, and he stabbed Gabriel. He probably would have lived, but Sheidheda was about to kill me when Gabriel jumped in and saved my life. Sheidheda killed him after that.”

You leave out the potential love confession, not even sure that’s what it was, and Bellamy gives you a look of sympathy as he reaches up to touch your cheek. “I was wondering whose blood that was.”

You feel tears start to well up in your eyes, suddenly overwhelmed with unprocessed emotions. You got Bellamy back, despite the odds, but you still lost Gabriel and Madi. Before that, you lost Diyoza, and your mom, and Kane, and so many others. The loss hangs over you, heavy, weighing down on you, and Bellamy can sense your impending breakdown. He abruptly stands, holding out his hand to you, and you take it as he glances over at Levitt. “Are there medical supplies nearby? Her bandages need to be changed.”

Levitt nods, pointing down the hall. “Should be some down there, last door on the right.”

Bellamy nods in thanks and wraps his arm around you, turning you away from the pair as he starts to lead you down the hall. You feel tears falling down your face as you softly cry, unable to do much more than follow Bellamy to one of the medical rooms. He leads you inside and takes you over to the inspection chair, putting his hands beneath your arms to lift you and set you onto the cool leather. He leans down a little, getting eye level with you, before lifting his hands to your cheeks, wiping away your rapidly falling tears. “I’m so sorry about Gabriel, natshana.”

You nod, sure that he must be confused, unaware that the two of you became like family. “There’s so much I need to tell you, Bellamy. I spent five years trying to get you back, with Hope, Echo, and Gabriel at my side.”

He looks at you with complete shock. “Five years?”

You nod in confirmation and he shakes his head in confusion. “How? Where?”

“Skyring. The disciples call it Penance. The time dilation there is fast, a few days here is years on Skyring and minutes on Sanctum. We came after you as soon as the disciples knocked you out, but we got trapped there.”

Your lip starts to quiver as you remember the devastation you felt upon realizing you were stuck there. “I thought about you everyday, and when I finally made it to Bardo, they told me you died in an explosion. I never thought I'd see you again.”

Your voice cracks on the last sentence, bringing tears to Bellamy’s eyes, and he reaches out to pull you in for a hug, one of his hands going to the back of your head to hold you in place as you cry in his arms. All the while, he whispers in your ear, “It’s okay, I’m here, and I’m not going anywhere.”

After a moment, he pulls back, looking at you with sympathy. “I can't imagine what you’ve been through, but it’s over now, and I’m not going anywhere. You’re stuck with me.”

“Forever?” 

He reaches into his pocket, pulling something out and holding it out to you in his open palm. You look down at his hand, your eyes falling on your ring as he whispers, “Forever.”

You smile and take the ring, sliding it onto your left hand, where it belongs. And even though everyone you love is still in danger, possibly on the edge of extinction, for one, blissfully happy second, everything is okay. Bellamy leans forward and pulls you in for a kiss, stretching the moment from one happy second to five, electricity zipping across your skin as you kiss your fiance for the first time in five years. It’s the best kiss the two of you have ever shared, and it leaves you breathless and lightheaded. Bellamy pulls away, and the two of you sit looking at each other, the air in the room charged with tension. And something about the moment, your closeness to war, to extinction, the fact that you’ve been apart for so long, it gets to you both. You see Bellamy’s gaze drop to your lips before his eyes find yours again, and in a flash, you’re both pulling each other closer. 

He crashes his lips onto yours, his hands lifting to your face to hold you in place. Your hands reach out for him, searching for skin to touch, frustrated when you find none because of his long sleeves. You slide your hand up his shirt as he slides his tongue into your mouth, and as your tongues move together, you hastily undo the small buttons on Bellamy’s shirt, pushing your hands against his skin as soon as you get his shirt open. You move your hands along his stomach, reveling in the feel of him, this sensation you haven’t experienced in five years, and you swear you feel like you’re going to explode. But as your hands move up to his chest, they graze across a bandage, and you pull your hand away, instantly knowing what it is. 

You and Bellamy break apart before you look at him with sadness, your eyes dropping back down to his open shirt. There, taped across his chest, is a bandage, no larger than your palm. As you sit staring at it, aware of what’s beneath the cotton square, Bellamy whispers, “The bullet barely missed my heart. A few inches to the right, and I would have been dead as soon as it hit me. But you saved me.”

You look up at him in confusion, shaking your head. “Me? I didn’t do anything. I left you there when I shouldn’t have. I should have fought Clarke harder and gotten back to you. Maybe then I could have saved you and Madi.”

“Or maybe Cadogan would have killed you the second he saw you. Besides, you did save me. I saw you push Clarke’s hand away. That was just enough for the bullet to miss my heart.”

“Oh, Bellamy…” You trail off, feeling full of regret, wishing you did more than just push your twin’s arm away. You meet his eyes and whisper, “Does it hurt?”

“Not really. Bardo tech got me to 90% within a few hours, and I woke up feeling fine. Then I heard one of the doctors mention Madi, and I snuck out pretty soon after that. I was only there for a few minutes before you guys showed up. I was still trying to figure out what to do, but I knew I couldn’t leave her there alone.”

“I don’t even know how you can look at me after what I did.”

Bellamy shakes his head, giving you a serious look. “I did worse than you did, la lune. I watched them torture Clarke and send Octavia away. I betrayed you and stopped fighting for you.” He shakes his head again, his thoughts overwhelming him. “I know that what I saw on Etherea was real, but Cadogan cannot be the one to take the test. You were right. Doing the right thing the wrong way is not the right thing. I should have never trusted him.”

“You didn't-”

You’re cut off by a yell of surprise from Octavia down the hall, and you and Bellamy exchange a worried look before you take off running from the room. Bellamy haphazardly buttons his shirt back up as you pull out your knife, and with his shirt in place again, Bellamy grabs his gun. As the two of you round the corner, you lift your weapons towards the disciples that stand near the new couple, and they each lift a gun towards you, the four of you standing frozen in shock as you take each other in. 

“Bellamy?” Raven and Echo both lower their weapons, staring at Bellamy as if they’ve seen a ghost, and it takes you a second to remember that they are. Because the last anyone else heard, Bellamy was dead. You both lower your weapons seconds before they run over to him, pulling him into a hug at the same time, laughing in surprise. Bellamy hugs them back with a smile on his face, savoring the reunion between himself and part of his Spacekru family. When they all break apart they look at him in disbelief, Raven asking the question on both hers and Echo’s mind. “How are you here?”

“It’s a long story, but how are you here?”

Raven counters, “It’s a long story.”

Echo looks over at you, her expression dropping slightly as she says, “Octavia told us about Madi.”

And just like that, any joy you temporarily possessed is now gone, again reminded of the situation you're in and the danger all of you face. “What are you doing here?”

“We came to kill Cadogan.”

You nod back towards the Stone Room, “Clarke’s taking care of it.”

Levitt looks at them with worry. “You said you brought an army.”

Raven turns to look at him, nodding at him once. “Wonkru is here to distract the disciples so we could sneak inside.”

But the worry on Levitt’s face doesn't fade. “The disciples don't know that. If Clarke can't stop the test to determine whether or not the human race deserves to transcend, while what's left of the human race is fighting a war…”

He trails off, waiting for all of you to catch on to what he means, and as soon as you do, your anxiety levels rise, suddenly realizing you might be closer to extinction than you originally thought. “We have to stop the war.”

Everyone nods in agreement, turning to head back towards the oxygen farm, Octavia and Levitt in the lead. Raven and Echo follow right behind, and you and Bellamy move to follow them before you suddenly stop, remembering Clarke inside of the Stone Room. Clarke, who will be vulnerable and unprotected if you all leave. Bellamy turns to you when you stop, his expression scrunched with concern. “What? What is it?”

“I can’t leave Clarke.”

“Then we’ll both stay here.”

And as much as you don't want him to leave your side, you know they need him on the battlefield. Because if anyone can give a speech so inspiring that it stops a war, it’s Bellamy. You’ve seen him rally less than 100 exhausted delinquents and prepare them for a war, and you’ve seen him inspire a small group ready to fly into space to avoid a death wave. People will follow him, your fiance with the big heart, and you know he’s better suited out there than he is in here with you. 

You shake your head, lifting your hand to his cheek. “No. If anyone can stop this war, it’s you Bellamy Blake.”

“I don't want to lose you. Not again.”

You smile at him, tears in your eyes. “You won't. Because no matter what, you’re stuck with me. No matter what, you can always find me in the stars.”

Bellamy pulls you in for a kiss, desperate and full of love, and you kiss him back just as urgently, praying that the moment never ends. But it does, and you both pull away, looking at each other with heartbreak, knowing that you’re needed in two different places. Bellamy runs his hands from your shoulders, down your arms, linking your hands together. He squeezes once before he whispers, “I love you.”

“I love you more than the stars.”

He fights back a fresh wave of tears, backing away from you slowly, your hands breaking apart. “Stay out of trouble.”

“Go save our asses.” The two of you smile at each other before he turns and jogs down the hall, following the path the others took. He stops when he reaches the end, turning to look at you one last time before he disappears from sight, leaving you to stop a war and possibly save all of you from extinction. You turn and grab a pistol from the pile of weapons before you head to the Stone Room, pushing the button for the door so that you can wait inside. 

The room is empty when you arrive, looking exactly the same as last time, and you push the button to close the door behind you, not wanting to get caught off guard by anyone. You stare at the glowing white light for a second before leaning back against the wall, sliding down it until you're sitting on the floor. You lean your head back and do the thing you dread the most: you wait. 

Luckily for you, you don't have to wait long before there’s a flash of white near the Anomaly Stone. You stand and turn towards it, watching as Cadogan’s dead body appears at the base of the stone, multiple bullet wounds in his chest, blood seeping out onto the floor around him. You feel a rush of relief that he’s dead, that he has paid for what he did to Madi, Bellamy, you, and countless others, but that relief is short lived. Because a moment later the Anomaly flashes again and Clarke steps out of the light, turning to look down at Cadogan’s dead body with shock. 

As she looks up again, her eyes meet yours, but her face is devoid of the happiness she should feel. Instead, she looks upset, her expression anguished. “What have I done?”

You step closer to her, reaching out to take her hand as she looks away from you. “Did you take the test? Tell me what happened.”

“I failed.” You swear you feel all the air leave your body in one quick rush, the reality of what her words mean hitting you hard. She squeezes your hand and looks up at you, tears in her eyes. “It should have been you, la lune, not me. Our whole lives, everyone always looked to me, chose me to be the twin that lived on the outside, but it should have been you. It should have always been you.”

You look at her in shock, your mind buzzing with all the information she’s just given you. But you force it all away and focus on the pressing situation, the one that matters the most right now. “So that's it? We're wiped out?”

She nods her head, and you ask, “Well, can we change their minds?”

“I don't know.” She squeezes your hand and then drops it, already turning towards the door. “I need to be with Madi, there's not much time.”

You turn to follow her, calling out to her quickly retreating figure, “Clarke, wait!”

As you reach the door, the Anomaly Stone behind you turns bright red, pulsing with an almost angry, vibrating sound. You pause and turn to look at it, watching it closely. Despite your better judgement, you walk closer to it, closing the space between you and the bright red ball. As you look at it, you start to wonder: can you stop this? Can you change their minds?

You take a deep breath, lifting your hand as you mutter to yourself, “I am war, rage singing beneath my skin, running into battle and wearing Death like a crown. I am the moon, loss tied to my ankles like chains, trying to pull me down, but still I rise. I am fire, wild and untameable, spitting flames when I walk, unapologetic as I burn down the world around me.”

And then you touch the stone.

Everything around you grows so bright that you can do nothing more than close your eyes against it, the low vibration growing louder as something happens around you. You keep your eyes closed until you hear the sound fade, and only then do you slowly pull open your eyes. Your gaze immediately lands on a wall of trees, surrounding you on all sides, and you turn around, trying to figure out where you are. When you do, your eyes land on a large hunk of metal, three levels tall, scorched and damaged from its descent. 

“The dropship.” You let out a breathy laugh of surprise. “No way.”

You jump when a voice behind you calls out, “Took a beating on the way down, didn't she?”

“Dad.” You spin around, your eyes landing on your dad standing in the middle of the clearing, looking at you closely. You close the space between you, jumping into his arms and wrapping him up in a hug, squeezing him tight as you laugh. “Dad! What are you doing here?”

He doesn't answer, just hugs you back weakly before setting you back on the ground. You step back and look at him in confusion, taking in his blank expression, no sign of his usual affection for you. The pieces fall into place as you look at him, realizing that he’s not your father at all. “You’re not him.”

“No, I'm not. This is who you chose.”

You shake your head in confusion, “I don’t understand.”

“We often take the form of your greatest teacher, your greatest failure, or your greatest love.” You step back, putting more distance between you and the imposter dad. He tips his head to the side slightly, studying you. “Why are you here? The test is over. As you know, your twin failed.”

You glare at the man, your anger rising as you think of everything Clarke has sacrificed. Not just for you, but for your people too. “How could she have failed? Clarke sacrificed everything for us, so that we didn't have to. She gave up her soul so we could keep ours!”

“She committed atrocities.”

You counter, “She did what she thought was right. She was trying to save us.”

“She doomed you.” Your dad shakes his head, starting to turn away from you as he mutters, “I'm sorry.”

You yell back, “Are you?”

He turns back to face you, and you continue on, “Because to me, it looks like you don't feel anything. We’ve made mistakes, but we were just trying to survive! And everything we’ve done, all the bullshit we went through, we did it to save our people, to save the human race. Everything we did brought us here, to this moment, and I’m not saying we’re ready now, but at least let us live. Let us keep trying to do better, because we will. We have.” 

“You say you have, yet even now you are poised and on the brink of self-extermination. Look.” He motions to your left, and you turn to look, suddenly away from the dropship and back in the oxygen farm. To your left stands Wonkru, crouching behind barriers and shields, and to your right are the disciples, looking frightened and worried. “You say you're trying to do better, but all I see are two tribes of frightened creatures willing to kill the other to save themselves.”

You shake your head, your brows pulling together as you look between the two groups, frozen in a state of nonviolence. “But they're not fighting or killing each other. It was just a distraction, this proves nothing.”

“They will fight, la lune, like they always do.”

You snap, “You can't possibly know that.”

Your dad motions to your left, to a person in the trees, crouching with a weapon in their hand. As you look their way, you see that it’s Sheidheda, and he has a smile on his face, ready to stir up some chaos. You look at him in fear and try to move closer to him, yelling, “Stop!”

Your dad grabs your arm, pulling you to a standstill. “They can't see or hear you. You can’t stop this, no one can.”

And just as he says, you can't stop him. You can only stand and watch in horror as Sheidheda pulls the trigger, firing a few rounds at the disciples across the field. They look ready to retaliate, and Wonkru looks ready to fight, but Indra manages to keep them restrained, seconds before a figure dressed in all white bursts onto the field. For one agonizing second you think it’s Bellamy, but then you realize that it’s Levitt, and Bellamy is waiting in the trees with Octavia and Raven and Echo. As soon as Levitt is on the field, everyone pauses, listening to him as he yells, “Wait, wait, wait! Listen to me, this is not the Last War. We don't achieve transcendence through violence, Cadogan was wrong. We're being tested right now, all of us!”

You turn to look at your dad, raising one of your brows. “You were saying?”

But he just motions back to the scene in front of you. Levitt is urging everyone to put down their weapons, and people start to respond, lowering their guns and swords, until Sheidheda grows restless and sends another round of bullets towards the disciples. Levitt gets caught in the crossfire, and you watch in horror as he falls to the ground, blood already staining his clothes, and the disciples take the attack on Levitt as an attack on themselves. They return fire, prompting Wonkru to do the same, and before you know it, you have a war on your hands. People on either side are being taken down, hitting the ground, and you catch a glimpse of Octavia and Echo running to grab Levitt before you turn to face your father. “This still proves nothing. The actions of one man should not define our entire species! Those people are scared, and half of them spent their entire lives thinking that they needed to defeat you in a war.”

“Don't you see? Despite the beauty that humans are capable of, you can't break free from the cycle of violence. They trained for a war, because they wanted a war.”

“No one wants a war.”

Your dad shrugs, “This is who you are, and that's why you failed the test.”

You shake your head, thinking of the peace you lived in your lifetime. The peace on Bardo, the peace on Sanctum. You know that peace is possible, that all of you can change, and you turn to look at your dad with desperation. “No. That can’t be it.”

“It's time for us to go, la lune. The end of the human race is here.”

And as you start to turn away, devastated that you couldn't change their minds, you hear Octavia yell, “Indra! Indra, hold your fire!”

You pull your dad to a stop, “Wait!”

Both of you turn back to the battlefield, watching as Indra yells to Wonkru, “Hold your fire!”

Wonkru stops firing their weapons, and in return, the disciples stop firing theirs. You watch on with hope, thinking that maybe, they can still turn this around. Maybe, you can still avoid extinction. But then Sheidheda jumps out of the trees, stepping into a circle of warriors. “Indra is not in command here! I am, and I say jus drein, jus daun!”

He starts to repeat the phrase over and over, and you feel your hope being crushed once again as people start to join him, chanting the phrase and intending to continue the war. But Indra, who has clearly had enough of the Dark Commander at this point, snatches one of the sonic cannons from an Eligius prisoner, turns it on Sheidheda and blasts him to pieces before you can even respond. You feel relief course through you as he disappears, Gabriel’s death now avenged, and as you stare at the group around you, you see none other than your fiance running onto the battlefield, his voice loud as he yells, “Enough!”

Everyone turns to face him, watching him stride out into the center of the field with Octavia at his side, and he looks between both groups with disappointment. “What the hell are we doing here? You swore an oath to fight for all mankind. Well, look around you! We are mankind!”

Octavia, remembering her position as the former leader of Wonkru, turns to face her people, adding, “We are one crew! If I kill you, I kill myself. If we keep killing each other, there won't be anyone left to save!”

She looks to Indra, her teacher, her mentor, resignation in her voice. “Our fight is over, Indra!”

Indra stares back at her former second, giving her a long look before she mutters, “I hope you know what you're doing.”

She drops her weapon, and all around her, the others do the same, until no one on the Wonkru side is armed. You watch on with pride as Bellamy turns to face the disciples, determined to stop this war, right here, right now. “We're unarmed! I know you're afraid to walk away from everything you've spent your lives training for, but I believe transcendence is within reach! But if we fight this war, we’ll never deserve to see it, and we’ll never deserve to survive.”

You can see some of the disciples starting to lower their weapons, as Wonkru nods along in agreement. You smile at your fiance, whispering to yourself, “He’s reaching them.”

Octavia reaches out and takes her brother’s hand before she finishes up their speech. “I've been to war, and let me tell you the only way to win... is not to fight.”

She pulls out her sword and stabs it into the dirt, and Bellamy pulls the gun from his waistband and drops it on the ground. The Blake siblings stand together, united as they should be, unarmed and facing an army. The disciples look lost and confused, everyone exchanging looks, trying to figure out what they should do. Someone calls out, “Sir, what are our orders?”

Their leader looks around at his army and then back to the Blake siblings, before he disconnects his weapon from his suit and drops it to the ground, muttering, “For all mankind.”

All around him, other disciples do the same, dropping their weapons and repeating the mantra, until two armies stand united, at peace, despite the odds. You turn to look at your father with hope, gesturing to the scene beside you. “I told you, we can change. We just need more time.”

He looks at you long and hard, before tuning his gaze back to the siblings. You follow his line of sight, wondering what he sees, shocked to see the pair beginning to glow. You start to jog towards them, surprised, but a second later they disappear, leaving two beings of light in their wake. You whisper with shock, “Transcendence.”

You turn back to face your father, only to find that he’s already gone. All around you are flashes of gold, and you turn back to the field, watching as the disciples and Wonkru start to glow, leaving behind a gold stand in. You turn in a circle, amazed to see everyone transcending, and as you spin, the trees around you transform. Suddenly, you’re back at the dropship, your mind remembering your forgotten niece and twin, somewhere inside Bardo. 

You run towards the dropship, yanking the makeshift door aside to step inside, suddenly back in the Stone Room on Bardo. Without hesitation, you take off running, tearing down the halls and back towards M-Cap, reaching the door with an audible sigh of relief. You push the button to open the door and Clarke turns at the sound, a figure of light stretched in front of her, Madi already gone. “My shining star.”

And as the words leave your mouth and you start to cross the room, you realize that the dull ache in your shoulder, present since Sheidheda stabbed you, disappears. You look down at your shoulder in shock, your eyes landing on the light that is starting to radiate off of you, and as you look up at your twin with excitement, you fade away, melting into the light and becoming one with the rest of humanity.

-

You open your eyes to find yourself in Shallow Valley.

You sit up quickly, looking around in confusion, surprised to see that you’re in the house you saved for you and Bellamy. Stars stretch across the sky above your head, visible to you through the window, though they aren’t as breathtaking as usual. You shake your head, remembering the valley that was destroyed by McCreary, meaning whatever is happening right now is not normal. You turn and slide out of the bed, listening for the laughter and yelling outside, and you walk tentatively to the door, pushing it open to peek out into the night. There’s no one in the village from what you can tell, but the laughter sounds close so you decide to follow it. 

The voices lead you through the trees, and you look down to watch your step, remembering how bad some of the tree roots were in this part of the woods. You’re surprised to see your bare feet walking through the forest, none of the usual pain coming along with it. Though confused, you push on, following the laughter through the woods, catching glimpses of a fire as you move, until you suddenly burst through the treeline and see all of your friends gathered near the lake that you, Clarke, and Madi would swim in. 

They all look up as you approach, calling your name, and you smile back at them, walking towards the water where they’re waiting. As you move, you see a streak of something barreling towards you, and a second later a body collides with your own. You look down to see a head of dark hair, and Madi pulls away to look up at you, smiling as she does, “Ani!”

You laugh in disbelief and hug her back, but something about it feels off, wrong. You’re excited to see her, happy that she’s okay, but it doesn’t feel right to you. You shake your head, trying to push the thought away as Bellamy steps along the edge of the lake, towards you, smiling as he nears closer. “My love.”

The words don't light you up the way they normally would, and his kiss doesn’t either. Everything about it feels flat and unusual, and you hate it. You have no idea what’s going on, but you hate it. 

You look around for Clarke, sure that she’ll know what’s going on, but you see no sign of your blonde haired twin. You look back at Bellamy in confusion, “Where's Clarke?”

“Everyone’s been showing up one at a time. If she transcended after you, she should be here soon.”

“Transcendence.” You nod, remembering the events leading up to this moment. You have only just transcended, but you can already tell that none of this feels right. The fire next to you brings you no warmth, the joy you should be feeling isn’t there, and you can’t feel the sensations of the ground beneath your feet. The stars are dull and lifeless, the laughter sounds forced and unusual, and the affection that you normally feel for Bellamy and Madi and the others isn’t there. You know what it should feel like, you know how you should be acting, but none of this is the way it’s supposed to be. You look around again, seeing if anyone else feels the same, pausing when you catch sight of a glint of metal through trees. “What was that?”

Bellamy looks back quickly before turning to you. “What?”

You shake your head and lock eyes with him, forcing a smile to your face as you do. “Nothing. Uh, I’m gonna go say hey to the others and then I’ll come find you, okay?”

He nods and steps away from you. “Okay.”

But instead of wandering over to the rest of your friends, you slip back into the trees, moving through the dark woods, towards the metal you caught sight of earlier. Weirdly enough, as you grow closer, you can see that it’s part of Arkadia, situated all the way out in Shallow Valley, far from where Alpha Station crash landed to the ground. You step inside of the building, heading to the door at the end of the hall, voices drifting from behind it. 

Your feet thud softly on the metal floors, but they don't shock you with cold the way they normally would. You reach the door and push it open slowly, your eyes landing on a large round table in the center of the room. Situated around it are seven different people, talking quietly, their backs to you, but at the sound of your entrance they all turn towards you. You’re shocked to see your mother, Kane, and Jaha, along with a few other familiar council members. You feel a rush of excitement and you start to cross the room towards your mom, a smile on your face, but you hesitate when she doesn't smile back at you, your mind remembering that your mother is dead.

It takes a second for you to realize that this is not your mom, Kane, Jaha, or the rest of the council. It’s the species that created the stones, appearing in front of you in a way that makes sense to your brain. For some reason, your mind chose the Council and the Chancellor. 

The seven people in the room take a seat in tandem, looking towards you expectantly. “What can we do for you, Miss Griffin?”

You ask the question weighing heaviest on your mind. “Where’s Clarke?”

“Right now, she’s on Sanctum. Though I doubt she’ll be there long.”

You pull a face as you stare at Jaha, the one who answered your question. “Sanctum? What’s she doing there? When is she coming here?”

This time, it’s Kane that answers. “She’s not.”

“What?”

“Clarke isn’t transcending.” You stare at your mother in shock, sure that you must be imagining things. She shrugs as she looks at you. “How fitting that one twin saved the human race, while the other condemned it.”

You shake your head, looking between everyone on the council. “I don’t understand, I thought you changed your mind.”

“We did. For everyone but her.”

“Why?”

“Her actions must have a cost, Miss Griffin.” You look at Jaha, your expression indicating that you need some clarification, so he adds, “She is the only test subject from any species anywhere in the Universe since the dawn of time who committed murder during a test.”

“So she can never transcend? She has to live out the rest of her days alone?”

“She found Picasso.”

You glare at Kane, both of you knowing damn well that though Picasso is lovely, she is not a replacement for real human interaction. You look between them all, your mind making a decision before you can even process it. “I want to go back.”

“Okay.”

You look at Jaha in confusion, expecting him to fight you on this. “Okay? That’s it?”

“Transcendence is a choice, Miss Griffin. It always has been.”

“Then I choose to go back.”

Kane gives you a long look. “You do understand that if you leave us, you may never return.”

“Yes.”

“You will bleed and live and die as a human.”

“I know.”

Jaha holds out his hands, shrugging. “Then you may return. Though I suspect the others may want to join you.”

“If Madi comes back, will she be okay?”

“Yes. We will restore her health.”

You nod, “And that’s it then? Those of us that choose to return, we’re the last of the human race?”

“In a manner of speaking, yes.”

You shake your head, looking at your mother. “What does that mean?”

“Those of you that leave now can never transcend again, but your offspring will be given a choice: transcend or remain human. If they join us, they will be eternal. If they choose to stay, they will live and die, just as you do. There will be limitations, of course, so that the human species will be unable to repopulate the way you once did, but your lives will remain mostly the same, untouched by the rest of us.”

You nod, processing the information, sure that it’s something you can live with. “Fine. I’d like to tell my friends first.”

Kane motions towards the door. “You will find us when you're ready.”

You look them all over one last time before you turn towards the door and leave, heading back to the lake to tell your friends that you plan to leave and return to Clarke. Madi and Bellamy are the first to join you, and the others quickly follow suit. Word begins to spread through Wonkru, the Bardoans, the Eligius prisoners, and the Sanctumites, and before you know it, you have a couple hundred people that decide to go back with you. 

The alien species drops all of you back on Earth, near a large lake, leaving you to figure out how to get everyone back to their respective homes. You’re in the process of leading them all back to the bunker and the stone when you hear a dog bark growing steadily louder. You turn to look at Bellamy and Madi with a smile. “Stay here with the others. I’ll go find her.”

They both nod, just as Picasso breaks through the treeline and comes barreling towards all of you, making a beeline for Madi, laying down at your niece’s feet as soon as she reaches her. You smile at them before taking the path Picasso did to reach you, backtracking towards Clarke’s frantic voice, calling out for the dog. You walk up a small, rocky hill, searching for your twin, and you know you’re close when you hear her broken whisper. “I don't want to be alone.”

You round a curve of trees, Clarke now coming into view, her back to you. You call out, “You're not alone.”

She turns around in shock, her expression surprised as she looks at you, a smile breaking out on her face, tears rising to her eyes. “La lune?”

You nod and your face splits into a grin, and the two of you run towards each other, colliding in a fierce hug. She holds you tight, laughing with happiness, and you do the same, this hug feeling right, the way that it should. Clarke breaks the hug to look at you in alarm. “Wait, what about Bellamy and Madi? And the others?”

You take her hand, leading her towards them. “They understood why I needed to come back.”

You see panic cross her features, and she shakes her head. “No, la lune, I would never want you to leave them behind! Even if it meant I was alone.”

“Hey, stop worrying.” You squeeze her hand, the two of you now reaching the bottom of the hill, coming around the corner and into view of the others. But Clarke doesn't see them, not yet, because her eyes are still locked on you, looking panicked. “La lune, I-”

You cut her off, saying, “We couldn't possibly leave you alone. Not after everything you’ve done for us.”

“We?” She looks at you in confusion, and you just smile, nodding towards the group standing nearby. Her eyes go wide as she turns to see the large group of people from multiple different planets, Madi and Bellamy and your friends standing at the front. At the sight of Madi, Clarke turns to flash you a smile before dropping your hand and taking off running, and the two of them collide in a hug so hard that Clarke falls backwards into the sand around the lake. 

You walk towards them, Bellamy pulling you in for a kiss when you get close enough, and you smile into it, reveling in the feel of him and the kiss. Transcendence might be nice in a lot of ways, like joining a conscious collective and getting to live forever, but transcending also meant losing all the things that made you human. Nothing would ever feel quite right, look quite right. Emotions would never be quite complete, you would never feel truly whole. And coming back to Earth means that one day you’ll die, and you’ll be able to feel pain again, but that’s part of being human. Life is messy and complicated, but it’s wonderful too. And feeling things like pain reminds you that you’re alive and that you can feel joy and love and sadness and anger. It means that you get to truly live, experience the good and the bad, no matter what. 

Bellamy pulls away from you with a smile, the two of you enjoying your time back on Earth already, and he turns to greet your approaching twin. They hug each other, breaking apart so that Clarke can greet the rest of your friends too. You stand watching, a smile on your face, realizing that you and your family have been given a second chance. You get the chance to prove yourself, prove to Monty and the Universe that you can do better. Prove to Jasper that human beings aren’t the problem, and that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

There, on a beach on a regrown Earth, after journeying through the stars and back again, you get a second chance at life.

-

the epilogue

[irinapaleolog]

‘Last Jedi’ Didn’t Undo ‘Force Awakens,’ But ‘Rise Of Skywalker’ Retconned Disney’s ‘Star Wars’ Saga

There is a difference between offering unpopular answers to a previous film’s questions and replacing the answers of a previous installment with your own in the next sequel.

Four months after its domestic theatrical debut (not counting Thursday previews), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($515 million domestic and $1.174 billion worldwide) will be our last blockbuster movie at least until Tenet in July. I will use this “once a month” Rise of Skywalker post (which will continue until theater re-open or until morale improves) to complain about Force Awakens editors Mary Jo Markey and Maryann Brandon (specifically Markey) arguing in a Mission: Impossible podcast “Light the Fuse,” stating that The Last Jedi (slight paraphrasing) so consciously undid the storytelling of The Force Awakens. We’ve been having this conversation for 2.5 years. It’s one thing when critics, bloggers, pundits, random folks on social media and the like get into this debate. But when the folks actually working on the movies do, failing to understand what a retcon actually is, well...

Star Wars: The Force Awakens used the narrative backbone of the first Star Wars movie to reintroduce the franchise, including a handful of “original trilogy” characters (Han Solo, Leia Organa, Chewbacca, etc.), along with new would-be heroes and villains in a crowdpleasing blockbuster adventure that earned $937 million domestic and $2.068 billion worldwide. I felt the film was too slavishly devoted to the structure and character beats of the original film to its emotional detriment, but my dad (who I was able to fly out for the premiere as a 70th birthday present) loved it, plenty of my fellow critics liked it and the new characters (Rey, Finn, Kylo Ren, etc.) became instant favorites with fans young and old. It also teased character-specific reveals about its new heroine and its new villains while ending on a big cliffhanger.

The Force Awakens ended with Han Solo having been slain by his own son and Finn in a coma with Rey having realized that she had “Force powers” and tracking down a self-exiled Luke Skywalker. We weren’t told if Rey’s lineage or Snoke’s origins had any bearing on the story, we weren’t told if Finn would survive his light saber battle with Kylo (although we all presumed he would) and we certainly didn’t know for sure why Luke, now looking like an elder hermit, had skipped out on the “First Order versus Resistance” battle and hidden away at the first Jedi temple. It is entirely fine that The Force Awakens left these threads dangling in the wind, and that the film (which was absolutely guaranteed to have a sequel) ended with a glorified “To be CONTINUED!”

Yes, I would argue that much of the speculation and debate over Snoke’s origins and Rey’s parentage was not from the movie but from bloggers and writers who spent the next two years offering what at best were educated guesses. With J.J. Abrams not returning to helm The Last Jedi and Colin Treverrow already signed to direct “Star Wars IX,” we really had no idea A) what Abrams’ answers to those questions might be or B) if those threads really mattered at all to the grand story. It was possible that Snoke was just a political operator, and that Rey’s obsession with her parents was purely part of her “the belonging you seek lies not behind you but in front of you” character arc (personified in Finn and Han risking capture and death to rescue Rey from Starkiller base).

Now it is 100% fair to not be happy with how things played out in Rian Johnson’s The Last Jedi. The middle flick in Disney’s Star Wars trilogy revealed that A) Rey’s parents were nobodies who didn’t even love her and B) Snoke was merely a stepping stone to Kylo Ren seizing control of the First Order. Sure, maybe you wanted Rey to be a Skywalker or a Palpatine. Maybe you expected Snoke to have a backstory or a reveal as some long-ago Star Wars character (Mace Windu?) reborn as a genocidal dictator. But there is a big difference between “I didn’t like Last Jedi’s answers to the questions Force Awakens posed” and “Last Jedi knowing rewrote or retconned Force Awakens.” Just because the onscreen events didn’t match your head-cannon doesn’t make them incorrect.

The Force Awakens no more gave us answers to its questions than did Tim Burton’s Planet of the Apes offer an explanation to its infamous “now the apes rule our Earth too” cliffhanger. If you listen to the DVD commentary to that 2001 “re-imagining” (which was still so disliked that it didn’t spawn a sequel despite earning $385 million on a $100 million budget), you’ll hear Burton specifically stating that he intentionally didn’t offer an explanation for why the Abraham Lincoln statue now resembled Tim Roth’s ape baddie specifically so whomever directed the follow-up could offer their own answers. You can debate whether that was the correct choice, but I would argue that Abrams, again this is not a criticism, did the exact same thing in The Force Awakens.

He left Luke on an island, put Finn into a coma, turned Poe from a “dies in the first act” cameo to a major supporting character and said “Okay, it’s your ball now, go play.” In a sense, that was generous of him, since it meant that The Last Jedi had more freedom to use that first film however it chose. The problem is that Treverrow essentially got sacked and Abrams came back to helm the third installment. The result was a retroactive retcon of The Last Jedi’s character beats and plot twists. I don’t think Treverrow’s (alleged) script for Star Wars IX is the best thing in the world, but it was at least a “yes, and...” sequel to The Last Jedi. Rise of Skywalker essentially ignored The Last Jedi, to its character-specific detriment.

Rise of Skywalker opened with Rey again being unsure of her Force abilities and lacking confidence in her own powers, Finn pining over Rey and caring more about her than about the “cause,” and Poe regressing to a conventional hot-shot fly boy sans earned maturity from his failed leadership in Last Jedi. Retroactively making Rey into a Palpatine and Snoke into a “cooked in a bottle” clone while bringing a cloned Palpatine back to life not only negated the storytelling of The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi but (to a lesser extent) the original Star Wars trilogy. Bringing the Emperor back to “life” negated Anakin Skywalker’s final sacrifice in Return of the Jedi, while retroactively making Rey Sheev’s grand kid, which Luke and Lea apparently knew all along, turns their previous interactions into a mess of contradictions.

It matters whether the people working on the movies know that offering unpopular or controversial answers to a previous film’s mysteries is not the same thing as rewriting or negating that prior installment. The Last Jedi was (somewhat) controversial partially because it gave unexpected (unpopular?) answers to questions teased in The Force Awakens. The Rise of Skywalker was (somewhat) controversial partially because it walked back those reveals seemingly to retroactively retain the answers that Abrams had in his head while making Force Awakens, with “new” answers that A) weren’t terribly popular themselves and B) wasted valuable screen-time which could have been spent on a forward-moving sequel to both Force Awakens and Last Jedi. Last Jedi didn’t retcon or undue Force Awakens. But Rises of Skywalker managed to retcon not just its predecessors but the entire Star Wars saga.

[thefaithie]

WC, Chapter 8

Wrong Conclusions Chapter Eight: Reconsideration

"What're you two so down about?" Cyborg asked, turning momentarily away from his own metallic arm and lifting up the goggles he had been using to protect his organic eye from electric sparks. Robin and Raven had entered the Tower no more then ten minutes ago, and from Robin's somber expression and Raven's colder-than-usual attitude, the metallic Titan had been able to tell something had gone wrong.

"Nothing," Robin spat out as bitterly as possible. "Nothing at all."

"And my mother was a toaster," Cyborg rolled his natural eye. "What happened?"

"I said 'nothing'!" Robin growled through gritted teeth, but Raven sighed and answered properly, instead.

"Robin's jealous of the fact that Beast Boy's the one going out with Starfire."

"So they are actually datin', huh?" Cyborg asked in mild surprise, ignoring Robin's indignant look. "I was wonderin' when it'd happen. I mean, they both changed a lot after you two got together-"

"We're not together!" They both cut him off at once.

Robin grinded his teeth and balled his fists in fury, and the shadow over Raven's face revealed four red, glowing eyes. Cyborg ducked just in time as a Bird-a-Rang and a wave of black energy went for his table, causing a small crater to form in the middle of it.

"DUDE!" Cyborg looked up from the crack and glared at the two of them to assure they wouldn't repeat those motions again. "I know, okay!? I was just messing with you two!" The mechanical man straightened back up carefully, staring at his friends in disbelief. "Seriously, if you two're THAT jealous, maybe you should just tell 'em instead of bein' all moody with me?"

"I'm not jealous of anything!" the Boy Wonder snapped again before turning on his heel and heading towards the gym, still utterly seething.

"I don't do 'jealousy'," Raven said coldly, floating a few feet in front of her metallic teammate. "And furthermore, there's nothing for me to be jealous of whatsoever."

"Will you two stop foolin' yourselves?" Cyborg sighed, pulling out a screwdriver and ignoring how taken-aback his comment made Raven look. "You've had it bad for BB ever since that mirror-thing. But you're never gonna admit it because you think you're this awful demon or whatever and you think that means you don't deserve someone nice like him. Just like Robin's been droolin' over Star for as long as I can remember, but won't say anythin' 'cause he's too scared it'll mess up the team or whatever way he phrases his excuse. All of ya gotta just suck it up, tell each other how ya feel, an' finally give me some peace and quiet."

Raven was now emanating an energy so black that it made her leotard look grey. She glared at Cyborg, wondering what she could do to make him regret saying what he had dared to utter.

She could encase him in energy so he couldn't breathe...no, that was stupid - he probably had an oxygen mask. She could take all his bolts out of him...No, no, he could just pull himself back together with whatever magnetized sensors he had inside him. Something, something to get him back for daring to say that she had feelings for that stupid monkey of a boy...

After a few seconds, the furious glow around Raven faded and a satisfied smile appeared on her lips.

"...Says the guy who fell for a pink-haired villain, of all people."

Cyborg's head shot up, blushing in surprise and embarrassment, sputtering, "H-Hey! That's low!" but it was too late. Raven was already floating back towards her room and shutting the door behind her, leaving nothing but a peeved teammate in her wake.

But after the door slid shut and she floated onto her bed, Raven couldn't help but begin to wonder...

Her? And Beast Boy? Sure, she liked him enough to tolerate him, but that was it, wasn't it? He was just an annoying, green, obnoxious boy who never knew when to keep his mouth shut!

She managed to hold that thought for a moment, then sighed. That isn't true... She told herself instantly. He's a lot deeper than that, even if he acts like he isn't...

Her eyes became fixated on the ceiling as the memory of Terra's betrayed ran through her mind. Beast Boy had shown off some of his true, darker colors during that crisis, but despite everything, he had given the Earth-user a second chance, and Terra had redeemed herself because of it as a final act.

Then there was Malchior... Beast Boy had turned into a fly on her wall just to watch Raven, to make sure she was alright. She had taken it as him being overly nosy at the time, but now appreciated how it had merely been the green teen's way of showing concern. And, of course - it had turned out his instincts had been correct, to have been concerned.

And then there were all the times he had tried to make her laugh. It was easy enough with the other Titans, but Beast Boy tried extra-hard for her, even if she didn't appreciate it outwardly...

Raven let out a small sigh, feeling her face break into a warm smile, just at the memories of some of his more recent attempts. He could be so stupid.

Wait. A smile? Her, smiling, thinking about Beast Boy? No, no, that...that wasn't possible! He was loud, annoying, stupid...There was no way she had any feelings for him!

She sat bolt upright and scanned her room momentarily. The jewel on her forehead glowed and a nearby drawer opened, causing a black mirror to float towards her. She looked at it, inhaling deeply.

She needed to know. She's been behaving so strangely, not at all like herself. She was constantly on the verge of letting her powers loose. She needed to be honest with herself, no matter how she didn't want to, and face whatever the truth was. She needed to go inside of herself and see what she truly thought about Beast Boy...What all the sides of her thought of him.

With a final deep breath, she concentrated, feeling herself being drawn into the mirror, and found herself within the gates of her own mind...

Downstairs, the punching bag flew back a few feet into the air before falling back and causing the chain that held it to the ceiling to jangle violently. Before it even had a chance to swing back to its original position, it was punched again and flew even further than before.

Robin panted, continuing his barrage of upper-punches. He was dressed in his gi with ripped sleeves, and sweat was pouring down the sides of his face and into his mask. But the Boy Wonder didn't seem to notice as he continued to abuse the bag before him, trying to keep his mind free of thoughts: empty, vacant, clear-

...What's he got that I haven't!?

"Augh!" Robin cupped his hands over his ears in an attempt to block his own thoughts out, only to be hit in the face by the punching bag on its swing-back. The Boy Wonder was sent back and found himself on the floor before he could even think to react to the bag's act of vendetta.

"Stupid bag-!" Robin growled, rubbing his nose and glaring daggers at his inanimate assaulter. He thoroughly considered standing and giving it another beating, but after several seconds of thought, instead decided to take a short breather. He sat up and ran a hand through his spiky hair, exhaling slowly, his thoughts now free to roam again on the matters that he had so attempted to avoid.

...Why did she pick him? What did Beast Boy do to get her? Is it his hair? The jokes? What?

...Why didn't I say anything to her sooner...?

Robin groaned, another voice in his head quickly answering his questions for him.

He's not scared of telling people how he feels, and that's all he had to do to make Starfire feel special. Where as I stayed quiet, lying and telling myself she was like a sister for the past...what, three years, now?

Robin sighed and glanced up at the ceiling. Growing up with Batman had, indeed, taken a toll on him. All the constant talk about 'job first, personal matters later' had made him too jumpy to ever talk about...feelings. What drove Robin crazy was that it was EXACTLY why he had left the Batcave, anyway - to prove to him there was more to life that kist "job first" and he could still lead a team to victory, despite it. But in his desperation, all that happened was that that obsessive need to win and show Batman he could make it as a leader overtook him, and he ended up pushing most other things aside, instead, especially his own feelings. It had always been Starfire who had made Robin realize that he had to think of the whole team, not only himself or how to get the job done as quickly as possible... Which was quite surprising, considering how the two had met.

Starfire had been the one he had considered the villain at first, and in all honesty, he had been wary of her their first few months together because of it. Robin had avoided making her angry or annoyed, thinking of her as only a war-class fighting, above anything else. He learned to think of her as a friend, that much was true, but more as a friend who could break him in half than someone like a possible girlfriend. The more Robin avoided her, the more Starfire had tried to get to know him, doing her very best to grasp the concepts of kindness and love. But even she had eventually started to lose hope in ever getting Robin's full trust, in those early days.

That was, until the cooking incident. Starfire had never used a kitchen before, and had been asked by Beast Boy to make some toast. She had agreed, and attempted making them. Somehow (none of the Titans had ever found out quite HOW, as the cameras were also damaged beyond repair), Starfire had managed to set half of their kitchen aflame, as well as half of the living room.

After seeing half of the files he had worked so hard to obtain and put together burnt to a crisp, Robin had lost it. The Boy Wonder had spent almost twenty entire minutes yelling at Starfire about how she had to be more careful and ask if she didn't know how to use something, rather than risking turning their entire home into a pile of ash. He had even called her stupid, air-headed, and several other things he still deeply regretted to this day. But the moment he had finished his rant and actually realized what he had said, Robin had cringed, expecting to be hit into the next week. But to his amazement, all he had heard was a whimper. A small, weak whimper, followed by the sounds of crying and rushed footsteps.

That had been the first time Robin had ever made Starfire cry, and the first time he realized being physically stronger than him didn't mean she couldn't have her feelings hurt by him.

Robin sighed, but despite himself, he was unable to keep from smiling when he thought of the incident. True, he felt nothing but guilt for having made tears fall from those beautiful green eyes, and he absolutely hate himself for the things he'd called her without thinking and had made sure never to do that again, but it had also been the first time he had hugged her. For almost the entire night, while she cried, muttering apologies, half in Tamaranian, half in English.

After that memory, more avoided memories began to rush into the mind of Robin. All good ones, about how he and Starfire had become very close friends, how she had slowly learned more things about Earth, how he had learned to be a better person all because of her. And the more Robin remembered, the more glaring the realization became:

I'm in love with Starfire.

He breathed in deeply, the thought coming to him as much less of a shock than he would have expected. Truthfully, he really had been fooling only himself with all his excuses. After all, if he had only felt platonically about Starfire, he wouldn't have gotten jealous about her being forced to marry, and his heart wouldn't have skipped a beat when Cyborg had called Starfire his girlfriend. He could have carried on normal conversations with her without worrying what she thought of him, or have wanted to protect her as much as he constantly did. The feelings had been inside of him for so long, but he had always pushed them aside, calling them 'friendly', or mentally referring to Starfire as a sister, even though the term never sounded right.

And now, it was too late. She was with Beast Boy. They were having a good time, he had put her hand around her and she had leaned close to him. All was lost...

...Or...was it?

Robin thought back to when Kitten had asked for a date from him. He had far from enjoyed it, considering how annoying she was, but Starfire had acted very, well...jealously then. She had even dressed up just to follow Robin to the dance and make sure no harm came to him. And she had also been jealous when she had thought that Blackfire had replaced her, on the Titans, too...

So, maybe there was a chance? Maybe...maybe if he told Starfire, then she could still have feelings for him! Maybe Beast Boy and she really were just friends. Heck, maybe she'd seen one of those old 80's flicks and has asked Beast Boy to stage something to make Robin jealous. Maybe Starfire was hoping Robin would say something!

'Maybe' was usually not something Robin would dare gamble with, but for Starfire, he really had no other choice.

Just as Robin began pulling his last piece of uniform on to go find Starfire again, the door to the gym slid open and Raven and Cyborg stood outside of it. A Communicator was flashing in Cyborg's large hand and his expression was grim.

"Robin, there's trouble at that hospital from a week ago. Starfire and Beast Boy are there, but they said they can't hold out alone much longer!"

Disclaimers:

Starfire, Beast Boy, Raven, Robin, Cyborg, Silkie, and pretty much everything but the plot at hand belongs to © D. C. Comics/Cartoon Network/Kids WB

9/2019 Update:

Woof. This is kind of a fun chapter. I forgot about all the back and forth and inner acceptance and everything, haha. Hopefully it's still fun to read.

[dizzypinwheel]

Identify Yourself

Chapter 5: A Lesson in Pragmatism

While we’re at it, nyoom! Have a link to the four previous chapters.

Hank could tally the total number Fowler had suspended an officer on one hand, and not because he was lenient. He commanded the police department with a fierceness that only a former drill instructor could muster, demanding the rank-and-file beneath his supervision to follow his expectations without question. It took little to cross his bullshit quota, and indefinite suspensions came with a questionable expiration date. They tended to last a long while. So color Hank surprised when he was contacted shortly after the start of his suspension, requested to pay a visit to the department. During their curt conversation, Hank noticed Fowler seemed strained. Fowler stayed on the line long enough to pencil in an 11:30 meeting for the following day, disconnecting the call before Hank could raise any questions.

After circling the area for a choice parking spot, Hank parked his death trap and fed the meter. He approached the precinct, feeling a glimmer of pride as he glanced at his watch. It read 10:50 AM. He didn’t expect brownie points or gold stars, but being punctual for anything that didn’t involve a sports stadium counted as a goddamn miracle. It almost made him feel respectable.

He gained a proper sense of understanding of why Fowler seemed so frazzled on the phone when he walked through the front doors and surveyed the reception area. Every android that performed quote unquote menial tasks for the precinct had vanished. The executive order that required all citizens to relinquish their androids to the authorities was probably to blame. He bet they were  dismembered scraps of plastic by now, buried in landfills located on the outskirts of the city. It appeared the precinct had yet to hire suitable replacements. Unfortunate rookies were floundering at the front desk, scrambling to process the swelling queue of civilians. The officers looked downright miserable, displeased about performing work they considered beneath their station.

He joined the queue, massaging his temples as he grimaced at the agitated line of visitors that kept tapping their feet or checking how much time had passed on their smartwatches. They were unaccustomed to such incompetence. He felt thankful that he had shown up early, that he wouldn’t have to fret about digging himself in a deeper hole by being late to his appointment. Still, it would have been preferable to have his access credentials, which had been confiscated the moment Fowler suspended him. He would have been in the bullpen by now.

He dug his hands deep into his coat pockets as he waited, turning his attention to the big screen television mounted on the wall on the far right side of the lobby. A couple of smartly dressed anchors were seated behind a glossy desk, and he half-listened to them prattle on about this attempted robbery or that wreck on Chrysler Freeway. His attention was piqued when they began a segment about a situation that held Detroit in its grip: the assassination attempt on the leader of the deviants and the aftershocks that shortly followed. 

“Last Friday, we broke a story about the failed assassination attempt that happened near Hart Plaza. The incident is still under investigation.  The federal government released a statement Saturday, categorically denying all wrongdoing and promising to prosecute those involved to the fullest extent of the law. The deviant leader, Markus, has been placed into protective custody in an undisclosed location.”

The other anchor took over.

“Following that fateful incident, tensions between human-android relations have become strained, with a growing number of people from both sides demanding justice. There have been rashes of organized protests and acts of civil disobedience across the city, and not just from deviants. Concerned citizens of Detroit from all walks of life have begun to participate in the demonstrations, creating human chains around the perimeters of protest zones to protect their android counterparts. When asked why they would put their personal welfare at risk for a machine, many cited the gruesome moments of police brutality they witnessed during earlier deviant-led marches. Whatever their reason, the human protesters we interviewed seemed  united behind a single goal: to do what they can to create a space where androids can protest peacefully, without fear of police or government retaliation.” 

At that moment, the newsroom cut to footage of the Detroit State Capitol. The stately, well-kept grounds had been transformed into an organized sit-in, a makeshift camp with laid-out tarps and pitched tents. Protesters huddled together in clusters, taking turns holding cardboard signs or chanting into megaphones. A group of college students had circled the android encampment, locked arm-in-arm to create a protective barrier. Hank found that final image particularly uplifting. God knows the press had been fixated on using the younger generation as a proverbial punching bag, depicted as too self-absorbed to care about anything beyond their own social media bubbles.  It was satisfying that they were the ones using their leverage to protect the vulnerable. It was a watershed moment.

At that moment, a tentative voice addressed him like a cautious tap on the shoulder.

“Lieutenant? Lieutenant Anderson?”

Hank tore his eyes from the broadcast and approached the rookie before him, unsure how long he had been transfixed by the stories on screen. Time had blazed past and he was surprised to find himself at the front of the line. He ran his fingers through his gray hair nervously as he studied the man in front of him, reading the name tag affixed to his uniform. Officer Brown. He was rather thin and had a smart buzz cut, perhaps no older than 22. Despite his professional air, he had an anxious demeanor; Hank suspected the young man was uneasy around him.

“What can I help you with?” he asked.

“I’ve got an 11:30 appointment with Captain Fowler and need a clearance badge. Think you can help me out with that?”

“Sure, just a second.”

Officer Brown opened a drawer and took out a laminated pass with a metal clip, handing it to Hank.

“So you can clip this pretty much anywhere, as long as it’s visible.”

“No need to explain,” Hank replied. “I’ll take it from here. Take care, all right?”

“I’ll try,” he muttered.

As Hank left the reception desk, he clipped his visitor pass to his coat breast pocket and strode towards security screening area. He noted a sullen police officer leaning against the wall next to the security scanners, his arms crossed, a resentful replacement for the PM700s that had faithfully stood watch just days ago. When it was his turn, Hank stepped through the motion sensors. They chirped as they registered his pass and the gates granted him access, sliding apart with a quiet hiss. The officer waved him through with an apathetic gesture, barely affording him a single glance. In return, Hank nodded curtly and continued through, opening the door that led into the bullpen.

The bullpen was swarming with activity, the entire room a cacophonous din of unanswered phone calls, clacking keyboards, and work-related chatter. Some officers conversing during a hasty coffee break straightened up as Hank passed by, intentional lowering their voices to a suspicious whisper. It appeared there had been no shortage of gossip in his absence. He did his best to ignore their unwelcomed stares.

As Hank made a beeline for Fowler’s office, he stole a glance at his old workstation, feeling a twinge of regret. Save for a few scuff marks and coffee stains, all signs he had once worked there had been scrubbed away. His malnourished plants and bumper stickers, framed graduation photographs and  newspaper clippings -- his personal effects had been tossed out or squirreled away in a box somewhere in his shed. He felt territorial. At least it remained unoccupied. No one had tried to lay claim to his workspace. Yet.

Fowler could be seen in his office, hunched rigidly over his desk and sipping from a mug of steaming coffee. He massaged his temples as he stared at his computer screen, scrolling through what were presumably case files, unaware that Hank had arrived for his appointment.  Rather than barging in, Hank rapped on the door with the back of his knuckles, stuffing his hands deep into his coat pockets as he waited. Fowler looked up at the sound of the knock and nodded at him, inviting him to come inside. Hank swallowed, his mouth and throat paper dry.

Hank entered the immaculate office, gingerly shutting the door behind him. He experienced a fleeting moment of hesitation as their eyes met and he shifted his gaze to the potted plants nestled against the wall, hardy little fuckers that required little water. Maintaining eye contact seemed impossible. After decades of working together in the force, Hank had grown accustomed to shooting the shit with Fowler, speaking to him without any filter. But now he just found himself incapable of speech.

Thankfully, Fowler didn’t leave him dangling long. He set down his mug with an agitated sigh and massaged his temples, studying Hank before breaking the silence. And even though his manner of speech was brusque, his voice was gentler than anticipated.

“Damn it, Hank. Sit your ass down.”

Hank forced an unconvincing smile as he complied, seating himself in a squeaky chair made for utility rather than comfort. He sat stiffly, his hands resting in his lap, and focused briefly on a fixed point just behind Fowler, a couple of Tigers baseball caps. It brought to mind a flash of memories: simpler times when they had been a pair of nobodies, friends watching ball games from nosebleed seats with their sons. He resisted the urge to shake his head. Look at them now.  He inhaled deeply and turned his attention to Fowler.

Time to cut the crap and get this over with.

“So,” Hank shrugged, gesturing. “I’m here.”

“Yeah…” Fowler replied. “So you are.” His eyes shifted to a tasteless white clock that ticked away on his work desk. “On time, too.”

Hank smiled thinly. “Imagine that.”

“Hey, it’s nice. You should consider making it a habit.”

Hardy har.

Hank pursed his lips, stifling an instinctive urge to retaliate with sarcasm.

A minute spell of silence trickled past as the two men paused awkwardly, each painstaking second punctured by the steadfast ticking of Fowler’s clock. Hank clenched his hands into tight fists, tongue-tied. Astute enough to recognize his reluctance, Fowler took initiative. He leaned forward, threading his fingers together as he set his elbows on his desk.

“For what it’s worth, I appreciate you taking the time to stop by, especially on such short notice.”

“Don’t mention it,” Hank mumbled, waving him off. “Hell, if anything, I should be thanking you. It gave me an excuse to leave the goddamn house.”

“Huh. What, you missing work already? Sounds like you’ve gained a little bit of perspective.”

As prone as Hank was to griping about the bullshit aspects of his line of work, it had given him unselfish goals to fixate on. A silver lining. And when that positive glimmer of his life had been stripped away, he sure didn’t appreciate that was left -- trash bags of take-out boxes and drained liquor bottles, a neglected house haunted with a mausoleum of inescapable memories.

“Suspension sucks, Jeffrey. I hate it.”

“You think I wanted to suspend you? Hank, you forced my hand.”

“I know. Believe me, I know.”

“Do you, though? Do you really?”

“Yeah,” Hank said softly. “I do.”

Hank faltered and fell silent, his shoulders slumped, drained of anger, of any desire to quarrel. He skirted Fowler’s scrutinizing gaze, feigning interest in a display case lined with row after tidy row of prized military decorations. A lump formed in his throat as he combed through his muddled thoughts, unable to find the right words to say. All he knew was that he felt compelled to apologize.  

“Look, I fucked up,” he muttered. “Royally.  And that’s on me. No one else.” He scoffed. “Hell, after everything that happened, I’m surprised you didn’t can my ass.” He took a measured breath and locked eyes with Fowler. “I’m sorry. For all of it.”

With that, he held his tongue and steeled himself, expecting Fowler to gloat or admonish him. Yet Fowler remained composed, his tone even, with no hint of malice.

“Apology accepted.”

“Really?” Hank raised his eyebrows skeptically. “Just like that?”

“What, you rather I grill your ass?”

“Well, no. Not really.”

“Listen, I’m not going to pull any punches. I’m done butting heads, not when I have so many problems with the precinct.”

“Yeah, I saw that on my way here. Seems like a proper shitstorm.”

Fowler shook his head and scoffed. “That’s what happens when you lose a quarter of your workforce overnight. It’s been a fucking nightmare. I need more manpower.” He paused, giving Hank a pointed look. “Officers with experience.”

Hank failed to conceal his surprise. “Me? I thought I was on your shitlist, that you wanted nothing to do with me.”

“Come on, use your goddamn head. You think I invited you here to chat over coffee? You know better than that.”

“But you’ve never been this lenient, not for anyone.”

“I’m not being lenient. I’m being pragmatic. This precinct is understaffed and overworked -- we need people.” Fowler stood up and leaned forward, his hands planted  on the desk. “Hank, I’m giving you a one-time shot, a chance to redeem yourself.  If you’re done being a cop, fine. I won’t stop you.  But if you want this, and I mean really want this, I guarantee you’ll walk out that door with your badge, a police detective for the DPD. Either way, I need to know. Will you come back?”

“When you put it that way, I’d be an idiot not to.”

“So it’s settled.”

Fowler sat back down.

“Just so you know, there are rules I expect you to follow. When you are at work, you will conduct yourself as a professional. I expect you to be punctual, I expect you to work without complaint, and  I expect you to keep your behavior in check.”

“Sounds fair to me.”

“Good, then it’s settled.”

Fowler opened a drawer and produced a shabby badge, dull from neglect, and silently placed it on his side of the desk.  As soon as Hank saw it, he stiffened, his leaden hands rooted to his lap. Fowler regarded him with a stern eye,  fingertips grazing the grooves of the engraved shield within. “Consider this badge on loan. Whether or not you get it back is entirely up to you. Act like what you are, a police lieutenant, and it’s yours.”  His expression grew stern as he cupped the badge with his right hand, concealing it from sight. “But if you take even one step out of line, I won’t hesitate to fire your ass. Do I make myself clear?”

“Clear as crystal. Consider all bases covered.”

Satisfied, Fowler offered Hank his badge, sliding it across the desk. “Then let’s move on to a different topic.”

Unaware he was holding his breath, Hank reclaimed his badge with a hesitant hand and stuffed it deep into its rightful place, mingling with his car keys and spare change in his right coat pocket.  Meanwhile, Fowler was stooped over a secured file drawer, unlocking it with a fingerprint scan.  He muttered to himself as he carded through the files, fishing out a thick manila folder stamped with the word CONFIDENTIAL in bold red letters. Tucking the folder under his arm, he rolled his shoulders and turned to face Hank.

“Let’s head down to the evidence room. I have a case for you to look at.”

If you made it to the end, thank you for reading. It took me a long time to make this update. I was dealing with a really serious bout of depression and anxiety and it just sucked all the joy out of things I enjoy doing. I’m in a much better place right now and have every intention of finishing this story. I owe @silenceindetroit so much gratitude for her insight. She is a wonderful beta. If you would like to be tagged for future updates, let me know! I’m also a whore for reblogs and comments. If you enjoy what you’ve read, consider doing so. ;)

Tagging the following:

@asunachinadoll // @malanoches // @negotiator-on-site // @spirit--fox // @detectiverichardreed // @nerdiebeauty // @kaylaproductions // @fizzabel // @windyfiend

[goddamnitdazai]

salt and sugar {two}

                                                     Chocolate                                                     {series: 2/?}                                                         {index}                                                      {Chuuya}

“You look fucking ridiculous.”

Chuuya’s head tilts to the left as he speaks. Grey smoke billowing towards the night sky from his cigarette. Orange flames highlight the bow of his upper lip and accentuate the pout of his lower; he never did realize how tempting his lips looked when he was scowling. His inhale is sharp, precise, and begins a trail of ringlets that float away in the gentle midnight breeze. The night had grown dark quickly leaving smaller convenient shops and rows of street lights shining as the only signs of life. An unfortunate evening to be without moonlight. After all, how were you supposed to play romantic on a boat with no stars and no moon to feign infatuation over?

“I thought you liked this dress on me, darling?”

He hadn’t uttered a word about it. But, the way his eyes drug themselves down your body as he strolled past you was enough. Sort of. It would have been nice to hear a compliment even in passing or on the boat where the two of you were playing house. The dress sparkled brilliantly every time you moved despite the terrible convenient store lighting. As form fitting as his suit, and nearly the same color. A smooth train of translucent black fabric followed you as you stepped towards the sliding door with a hand cinched over the straps of your heels. Chuuya only offered to carry your purse beneath his arm, but refused to take part in carrying your shoes. ’Why walk on the dirty sidewalk?!’ You’d never heard his voice hit that octave before and he didn’t seem to appreciate your amusement in the impressive range.

Your sarcasm was not lost to him, but rather than bite at your trap he ignores the tone and takes another drag of his cigarette. Chuuya looked just as out of place as you did, but he wore it much better somehow. A suit tailor made for a prince in the color of onyx with only a pop of cherry red hanging around his neck. It was strange at first to see him without his hat; he couldn’t risk it falling off the boat he said, but you had a feeling he just liked the way you played with his hair on the car ride over. For a spring night it was uncannily cold and the spray of ocean water on your bare arms and neck turned brief gusts of wind into slats of ice pressing against your body. Unfortunately, or fortunately, the boat ride was cut incredibly short due to a certain black-beast-wielding individual who didn’t bother waiting for orders. At the very least, his actions allowed you to slip away without having to deal with clean up duty.

Chuuya, on the other hand, was not so easily distracted by the beautiful spring night and did not miss you sprinting off the docks.  

“You going in or what?” Chuuya flicks his cigarette towards the curb and stomps the burning edge with his heel. Though his irritation was understandable you were in no mood to deal with his temperament considering you had nothing to do with his plans going awry. He always said the phrase ‘if looks could kill’ was created in your honor. “Oi, stop glaring at me and go get your food. Five minutes and I’m going to the room with or without you, darling.”

His hands slip into his pockets, back meeting the wall and head resting at a tilt to glance up at the starless sky. The door chimes as it slides open and Chuuya dissipates into the shadows. The clerk behind the counter barely glances your direction. Running a twenty-four hour shop in this area must give him a bouquet of strange people after midnight. What’s one girl in a ball gown with no shoes?

Rows of snacks and junk food create colorful aisles; a bit too bright for your level of exhaustion. Everything caused your eyes to strain and you could feel the beginning of a headache forming above the bridge of your nose. Nothing looked remotely agreeable to a stomach full of strawberry champagne. Dessert sounded perfect, not over-priced bags of chips; your jaw locks roughly as you weave through displays. Apparently, the mafia owned hotel at the edge of the warehouse district didn’t serve food after ten ‘o'clock. Hirotsu was going to have a two page complaint slid between reports when you returned.

In the back of the store rows of eerily clean glass-doored coolers housing a variety of beverages line the entire wall. Just catching the shadowy outline of a champagne bottle in the reflection makes your stomach bubble. Through rows and rows of soda and beer and odd-sounding drinks you finally spot a familiar pink carton. At least you wouldn’t be leaving empty handed. That would spark another fight you weren’t prepared to handle with diplomacy. Persuading Chuuya to let you stop was kin to pulling teeth, and you would never hear the end of it if you came out with nothing. Chuuya had made it irrevocably clear he just wanted to fall face first into bed and forget the entire night; you weren’t ready to leave him yet.

Truthfully, you weren’t that hungry at all. A weight began to grow in your throat as you fiddled with the carton. Maybe his irritation was pinpointed in the right direction after all. Chuuya did not overthink things, but he was perceptive, much more than you were comfortable with. At times it made things easier. Silence could hold the weight of the world if the right eyes fell upon the unspoken words lingering in the air. Strung up between two people refusing to open their mouths or in this case one–you. The lump thickens, like a ball of sand blocking your airway.

Maybe he knew this was all a bunch of bullshit, and he only kept his mouth shut to avoid an awkward work situation. Or maybe he just didn’t give a shit at all.  

The lump drops.

Your shoes clack together as you make your way towards the counter. On impulse you mutter Chuuya’s cigarette brand and toss a box of chocolate pocky onto the counter along with the carton of strawberry milk. The cashier yawns the total and you reach to your side only to fumble with the fabric of your dress. Chuuya still had your purse. As if he could sense your distress Chuuya strolls in from your right causing the bell to chime ten times louder than you remembered. Your hands fly to your temples; Chuuya shoulders his way in front of you. Displeasure is painted across his features. Narrowed eyes still glossy and red from the alcohol, and a dilapidated frown you’d only seen twice in the entire year.

“You’re more trouble than a child tonight y'know that?” Chuuya tosses a billfold on the counter and swipes the bag from the cashier quickly. All you can muster is a half-whispered thank you before scurrying out behind him. Curiously, Chuuya peeks in the bag. His brow quirks. “How’d you know I was out?” he asks while bringing up the cigarette box from the bottom of the bag.

“You’ve been smoking like a fucking chimney.”

“It’s been a night,” Chuuya mutters, plopping the cigarettes back in the bag. “A long, shitty fucking night.”

Chuuya wasn’t the only one with a breaking point. Regardless of his preference of company his attitude was unwarranted and continued to sour in your chest. Undeserved animosity always plucked at your nerves.

“Oh really? I couldn’t tell from your cheery attitude. You’re welcome by the way.”

His head whips around. One hand lands in his hair searching for his hat out of habit. He always gripped the brim when he was getting antsy.

“I paid for the damn cigarettes!”

The edge of your high heel scrapes your elbow as your arms wind across each other over your chest. Tears had begun to prick the corners of your eyes; annoyance, exhaustion, dejection.

“Then remind me to repay you. I’ll make sure not to disturb the stick that’s up there when I shove the money in your ass.”

Red cuts across his eyes. His fists curl, bag crinkling beneath the pressure; the sidewalk spiderwebs beneath his feet sending shards of cement flying across the road. Your breath catches in your throat; crimson wanes. Wordlessly, Chuuya spins on his heel and stalks off towards the building rising in the distance.

He hated how incredibly weak he was to his own emotions. At times they did not matter, but when they sunk in deeply they left open wounds needing attention, and they held the magnitude of a hurricane. Explosive in nature, and embarrassingly uncontrollable. But, his anger did not stay with him long. It came in short bursts, like fireworks, before decaying to nothingness leaving only a smoky trail. Diplomacy was a point of pride because it did not come naturally to him, and even a spat as small as this left a sickly feeling in the bottom of his stomach. To make matters worse he couldn’t find any other reason behind his vehemence, and the person who should be bearing the brunt of his vexation was off cleaning up his own mess. When Akutagawa fucked up he really fucked up.

Chuuya’s stomach knots within itself. The light above flickers. In his haste he’d walked further than he expected towards the hotel, he could barely make out your form behind him. His chest sinks forward as he reaches into the bag to grab his cigarettes. The box feels stiff, wrong color. His hands fumble with the box until he can catch the label under the light. Chocolate pocky.

Fuck.

For a second time his hand winds up in his hair. Smoothing out tangles and tugging the ends of his bangs. Plastic crinkles against his palm with the tension of his grip. Chuuya didn’t know what to do with the rising apprehension undulating in the pit of his stomach. It rose to his chest like thick bouts of smoke choking him in its ascension. The sound of your heels smacking against the sidewalk draws his attention forward; the smoke begins to dissipate.

“Don’t say a word. I had to put my shoes back on because the dress was dragging.” Chuuya isn’t surprised in the way you snap at him. He deserved it at this point. “What are you staring at.”

Chuuya’s eyes don’t waver. They intensify, piercing through the darkness and etching their presence into your skin. He couldn’t recall the last time he openly expressed his irritation outside scolding the wrong actions of his subordinates. There were moments around Kajii and Akutagawa where feelings of immediate annoyance came through in his tone and his words, but situational aggravation was only in relation to his temperament. It faded, quickly, and he didn’t feel a strip of guilt. Even when he had lashed out at people who didn’t deserve it he muttered a quick apology and went on with the rest of his day.

But there was a piece of him that couldn’t shake the bothersome feeling of how his actions affected you. He shouldn’t be so fixated on that aspect alone. There was validation in the way he felt. The night went terrible, it was freezing, and he would have to find a way to clean up Akutagawa’s mess in the morning. Headaches and paperwork were all that awaited him when he returned to Yokohama.

However, he didn’t really care that much the more he thought about it. His only focus fell to the way you stayed an arm’s length away from him and that your eyes would not meet his gaze. No words formed on his tongue, whatever charm he’d often used to talk himself out of situations regarding another’s ill feelings had been completely forgotten. He couldn’t bring himself to bullshit with you, especially when he truly felt like an utter asshole.

His hand drops to the bag momentarily and brings up a red box from the bottom. For a man who rarely exposed his hands his fingers were incredibly adept in their movements. The box tab flies open exposing a row of chocolate covered pocky. A single stick lands between Chuuya’s fingertips.

“Ever play the pocky game?”

There is nothing on his expression that reads as a joke, but the whiplash of emotions leaves you frozen. A step forward brings him directly beneath the street lamp. Amber light accentuates the sharp cut of his jaw and sprinkles auric into his eyes.

“Do you know how to play?” His voice rattles down the center of your chest and snatches the air from your lungs. “Bite.”

Whatever this was, challenge or trick, you had enough of his shit for the night. Effortlessly you bite down on a decent chunk of the side poking out from his mouth. He mimics your movements; his fingertips glide over your waist. The second bite leaves his breath ghosting over your lips; your heart leaps to your throat. Chuuya pulls back and lets the pocky fall from his mouth.

Time drags; Chuuya manages a simper before his lips mold to yours. Tenderly, two pieces of a puzzle finding completion within each other. A hand winds around your waist, it’s twin roams up the back of your neck to hold your head steady. He breaks apart, just enough to inhale and nibble at your bottom lip before returning. The alcohol and heat dust red over his cheeks. His hair tangles in your fingers barring him from kissing elsewhere. Your teeth sink into his bottom lip when he moves back for air. Chuuya’s moan vibrates against your lips, kiss-swollen and breathless.

“You wanna play like that? Right now?” Chuuya murmurs. “You’re all fucking trouble tonight, y'know that?”

[tabloidtoc]

Globe, January 25

You can now buy a copy of this issue for your very own at my eBay store: https://www.ebay.com/str/bradentonbooks

Cover: COVID patient Larry King’s nasty battle over $50 million will 

Page 2: Up Front & Personal -- Shia LaBeouf shows off his tattooed belly on a walk, Jessica Alba matches her mask to her shoes, Simon Cowell works out as he continues to recover from breaking his back 

Page 3: Amy Schumer on the beach in St. Barts, Peter Weber is a total cue ball, Jenny McCarthy hauls garbage outside her Illinois home 

Page 4: David Bowie’s supermodel widow Iman confesses she gets lonely but will never tie the knot again because the singer was her true love -- she made her revelation in the January issue of a fashion magazine where at age 65 she’s still hot enough to be the cover gal -- David and Iman’s daughter Lexie asked her if she would ever marry again and she said never and that their life together was beautiful and ordinary and that David was a very funny warm gentleman 

* Kindhearted Kelly Ripa is so spooked by her new gruesome true crime series about digging up murder victims’ bodies that she’s having terrifying nightmares that have driven her to a shrink for help -- Kelly and actor husband Mark Consuelos are bigwig producers behind Oxygen channel’s series Exhumed that debuted January 17 featuring unearthed corpses to solve cases -- many nights Kelly will awaken haunted by a case she and Mark reviewed and realizing the horror and heartbreak the victims and their families went through is something you don’t forget once the lights are out -- while Kelly and Mark aren’t on the show as executive producers they have to approve the episodes and become intimately involved with the devastated families who help tell their heartbreaking stories -- her immersion in the grisly material has had a chilling effect on Kelly who is an empath which is a highly sensitive gal who can often feel the pain and suffering others are going through and Kelly’s therapist encourages her to do positive meditations each night before bed and think about at least two things that made her happy that day and Kelly is doing her best to follow doctor’s orders but she is so affected by the plights of other people that somehow the nightmares still manage to find their way into her dreams 

Page 5: Onetime Bond girl Tanya Roberts passed away at age 65 less than 24 hours after her prematurely announced death -- Mike Pingel who was a rep for Tanya says he told the world that she had died at L.A.’s Cedar-Sinai Hospital on January after speaking with her distraught beau Lance O’Brien -- following a goodbye visit with the ailing star mistaken Lance claimed she died in his arms but bizarrely the very next morning sobbing Lance said he was told by the hospital that Tanya was still alive in the ICU while filming a TV interview about her untimely end -- however according to Lance she finally perished hours later on January 4 after being taken off life support -- Tanya reportedly collapsed in her California home after walking her dogs and rushed to the hospital she remained on a ventilator from December 24 until her death which was not COVID related

Page 6: In Denmark a bitter feud between royal wives is tearing the ruling family apart -- Danish Crown Prince Frederik’s Australian wife Mary detests her French-born sister-in-law Marie who is wed to Frederik’s kid brother Joachim and Mary helped banish Marie and Joachim to Paris to get her sophisticated rival out of her hair -- Frederik’s wife who is the future queen desires to be treated with the deference befitting her station even by relatives while Marie is far less stuffy and very outspoken and she’s made it plain she was unhappy when her husband was ordered to become military attache at the Danish Embassy in Paris in 2019 -- shortly after his arrival in France Joachim suffered a blood clot in his brain and when Frederik showed up to visit his ailing brother Mary was nowhere in sight

Page 7: After failing to land plum roles in A-list movie blockbusters Meghan Markle and her husband Prince Harry inked a $40 million deal to crank out podcasts and the first installment was branded a bomb after airing late last month -- despite superstar Elton John dropping by for Archewell Audio’s first holiday special the highly hyped recording embarrassingly landed at No. 17 on the Spotify podcast list behind entries like Deep Sleep Sounds which features whale sounds -- many in the royal inner circle are gloating and smirking over the arrogant couple’s disastrous debut and even with Elton’s help Meghan is still a second banana to whale noises and no one wants to listen to the couple’s self-absorbed drivel 

* Not only has royal renegade Prince Harry traded London for L.A. he’s ditched posh palace pronunciations and speaks more like an American during his public appearances -- while doing his first Archewell Audio broadcast Harry dropped the refined Received Pronunciation favored by his grandmother Queen Elizabeth and sounded like a regular American 

Page 8: Anti-vaccine crusader Bobby Kennedy Jr. has been kicked in the teeth by his powerful political clan after triggering fears about immunizations and the desperately needed cure for COVID-19 -- brother Joe, sister Kathleen and niece Kerry Kennedy Meltzer who is a doctor battling the virus on the frontlines publicly accuse Bobby of putting Americans’ lives at risk by telling lies about vaccines in general and attacking injections aimed at stamping out the killer virus -- family members were always skeptical about Bobby’s slightly off-kilter anti-vax ideas but they supported him because the Kennedys stick together and hate to show a rift in the family but now they have shifted against him

Page 10: Garth Brooks’ sloppy habits during nine months of lockdown have iron-willed wife Trisha Yearwood in a tizzy and their marriage is dangling by a thread after she clobbered the slob with a strict set of house rules -- after exasperated Trisha spilled her guts to pals a friend advised she put the rules in writing and hang it where he’ll see it and she did but Trish’s demanding ways are pushing Garth to the brink and he’s ready to walk unless they can find middle ground, one that doesn’t include Trisha calling all the shots -- Trisha has given Garth a list of do’s and don’ts that include wearing deodorant at all times and stop leaving the bathroom a mess and to remove his clothes from the dryer once he’s done but on the top of Trisha’s list is a ban on Garth’s constant 24/7 whistling that has her pulling her hair out 

Page 11: Dynamic diva Jennifer Lopez is bored with fat-cat fiance Alex Rodriguez and is struggling to keep their romance alive -- after postponing their marriage and saying there was no real reason to tie the knot Jennifer has kind of hit a wall with where she and Alex can really take things and she is particularly frustrated by ho-hum Alex’s lack of motivation -- those who know J.Lo want her to stick to her wheelhouse by making movies and recording music however those endeavors don’t offer retired baseball player A-Rod any position to play -- they haven’t fallen out of love exactly but they have run out of the joint projects and goals that were the rocket fuel for their relationship and they’re stuck with no obvious places to go next 

* Teresa Giudice and new beau Luis “Louie” Ruelas are already shacking up together and plan to buy a pad of their own and Teresa can see herself marrying Louie and combining his kids and hers under one roof -- he stays over most weekends and some weeknights at her place in New Jersey and they cook Italian together and stay up late watching movies -- her four daughters like Louie too and see how happy he’s made her 

Page 12: Celebrity Buzz -- Maitland Ward wearing masks on her breasts (picture), Demi Lovato battled a life-threatening secret eating disorder for years but today she bravely flaunts the stretched skin she’d once considered painfully flawed by wearing glitter paint on her stretch marks to celebrate her body and all of its features whether society views them as good or bad, Paul McCartney still gabs with dead pal George Harrison whose sprightly spirit has planted itself in a tree, Ray Liotta has asked girlfriend Jacy Nittolo to marry him and she screamed yes, legendary country star Ricky Skaggs is lucky to be alive thanks to an emergency quadruple bypass that saved his ticking time bomb of a ticker 

Page 13: Mel Gibson steps out in Malibu with his arm in a sling (picture), Amy Poehler loads up at a Beverly Hills market (picture), brothers and Kinks bandmates Ray Davies and Dave Davies brew up an outing in London (picture), Michael Jackson’s one-time associate billionaire biz-wiz Ron Burkle snagged the late pop star’s beloved Neverland Ranch for the bargain basement price of $22 million 

Page 14: Bryan Dattilo the 47-year-old soap star who’s played Lucas Horton on Days of Our Lives since 1993 now calls himself grandpa to a bouncing baby boy thanks to his 21-year-old son Gabe and his girlfriend and he’s also becoming a granddad on TV too with Alison Sweeney who plays Sami Brady, no more boozy days or nights for Chrissy Teigen and she declares she’s on the wagon and through with imbibing embarrassments

* Fashion Verdict -- Reese Witherspoon 7/10, Greta Gerwig 1/10 

Page 16: Cover -- As 87-year-old Larry King battled for his life against killer COVID in an L.A. hospital his estranged wife Shawn was making a grab for the talk star’s $50 million fortune -- the cheating blonde is raging because in the months before his hospitalization Larry filed for divorce and cut her out of his will, leaving the fortune to their boys Chance and Cannon and Larry Jr. his son from his second marriage -- it’s going to be a fight to the finish literally and Shawn is trying to make sure she’s not left out when it comes to his cash 

Page 19: 10 Things You Don’t Know About Anthony Anderson

* Kim Cattrall swore off motherhood because bedroom sessions with then-husband Mark Levinson didn’t fit into her Sex and the City shooting schedule -- Kim was 41 and newly wed when she decided to slam the door on pregnancy 

* Bill Cosby is refusing to shower with other inmates a Pennsylvania prison to avoid contracting COVID-19 and he says he controls his stink by washing up in his cell’s sink but he doesn’t expect the situation to last forever because he’s hoping a court will toss his 2018 conviction 

Page 21: LeAnn Rimes has admitted she checked into a mental ward after feeling bullied when news leaked she had cheated on her husband with married Eddie Cibrian -- she reveals she did 30 days in therapy in 2012 because she couldn’t handle the public shaming that rained down on her over her affair with future husband Eddie who was still married to Brandi Glanville and she was still wed to Dean Sheremet -- LeAnn calls her therapy the best gift she could have given herself 

Page 22: True Crime -- Survivor villain Jonny Fairplay is living up to his bad boy image after cops busted TV’s evil liar accusing him of ripping off his dementia-stricken granny 

Page 24: Marie Bobette Riales knows where the bodies are buried in actor Danny Masterson’s Scientology rape scandal and terrified church leaders want her silenced at all costs but Marie who dated the indicted actor and slapped the sci-fi faith with a civil suit won’t back down -- Marie’s impending testimony at Masterson’s criminal trial and in her civil case threatens to destroy the controversial church by exposing the intimidation used by ruthless Scientology bigwigs to hide the twisted secrets of its celebrity members 

Page 26: Health Report 

Page 30: Tom Cruise has taken on the mission to shield his movie crew from the rampaging coronavirus by building a disease-proof studio on a former top-secret army base -- Tom who is already taking heat for screaming curses at crew members who ignored virus safety measures is shelling out millions to build a secure shooting facility at the former English tank base in Longcross -- Tom is obsessed with finding ways to beat the fast-spreading virus ever since filming of Mission: Impossible 7 was shut down when the pandemic savaged Italy and when it spread to Britain 

* Alec Baldwin’s yoga guru wife Hillary a.k.a. Hilaria Baldwin has been busted as a fraud after putting on foreign airs and talking with a Spanish accent -- the mom of Alec’s five young kids claimed to be from the Spanish isle of Mallorca where she was called Hilaria but her tale unraveled after a social media video showed her accent mysteriously drifting on and off and pals from Boston’s preppie Cambridge School of Weston began texting that she’s all-American with one saying her name was indeed Hillary Hayward-Thomas and she did not have a Spanish accent -- now Mrs. Baldwin is confessing she was born in Boston but spent a lot of time in Mallorca where her American parents called her Hilaria and she picked up the accent 

Page 36: Angelina Jolie is panicking over her sky-high legal bills but she only has herself and her vengeful divorce war against ex Brad Pitt to blame -- she may be worth $100 million and rake in moolah from producing and directing but her high-maintenance lifestyle and refusal to finally settle her four-year divorce and custody war with Brad have left her cash-strapped and she’s starting to panic over her dwindling cash flow and every time she files a motion like her losing attempt to dismiss the judge it costs her money because these fancy lawyers can charge more than $850 an hour and it adds up -- more and more Angie’s having to dip into her savings but as much as it hurts she’s stubborn and refuses to settle and she blames Brad for everything -- on top of legal bills the luxury lifestyle she shares with her brood including a whopping $17.5 million mortgage on her L.A. mansion are a humongous cash drain and she also supports a household staff plus she’s never learned to say no when one of the kids wants an expensive high-tech toy 

* Pop diva Taylor Swift’s image has been erased from a mural at Nashville’s iconic Legends Corner bar because some die-hard fans believe she turned her back on country music -- artist Tim Davis notes the saloon’s owners told him to replace Taylor with Brad Paisley -- furious Taylor fans cry that she won country’s highest honor the Pinnacle Award in 2013 but painter Davis notes Taylor has turned to pop and some inebriated bar hoppers have spit on her image specifically feeling betrayed by her venture from country 

Page 40: Arnold Schwarzenegger’s acting unstoppable and savoring his favorite stogies just three months after major heart surgery but a medical expert warns the 73-year-old’s love for cigars could trigger a devastating health catastrophe and he should kick the habit -- however Arnold who had an aortic valve replaced in October has been feeling his oats with galpal Heather Milligan in resort Sun Valley, Idaho 

* In the latest twist in Dr. Dre’s messy billion-dollar divorce the rap mogul admits he spent a night of passion with estranged wife Nicole Young after they split -- in legal documents the music tycoon claims that although Nicole moved out of their family home in mid-March the two continued to speak and socialize and see each other and he also revealed that on the couple’s May wedding anniversary Nicole invited him to dinner at her Malibu home and the two did the horizontal mambo -- Dre vehemently denies Nicole’s claim that he abused her during their 24-year marriage adding she was not and is not afraid of him and insists she’s lying to bolster her divorce claims

Page 45: Robin Williams’ wife Susan Schneider insists she’s haunted by his ghost who shows up when she needs him and she says she recently saw him in the yard 

* Gilligan’s Island’s goody-goody girl Dawn Wells took a shameful regret to the grave that the perky pothead was accused of being a dope dealer -- the 82-year-old actress best known as girl-next-door Mary Ann Summers on the classic sitcom was still humiliated over her secret stoner past when she died of complications from COVID-19 -- her drug scandals dated back to 1998 when her friend and co-star Bob Denver who played Gilligan was arrested after a parcel containing half an ounce of pot was delivered to his house in Princeton in West Virginia and Denver later fingered Dawn as his connection and said she’d been selling him dope since 1995 but Dawn lawyered up and denied everything and was never charged -- she was busted for having marijuana in her car as she drove home from her 69th birthday party in 2007 and she was sentenced to five days in jail and fined and placed on probation -- her years as a pothead continued to haunt her until the end 

Page 47: Bizarre But True 

[davidrmcqueen1985-blog]

Financial Samurai 2019 Economic Outlook And Personal Goals

Happy 2019 everyone!

With my 2018 finishing with 3.8 4.0 out of 5.0 stars, I've thought long and hard about how I can make 2019 better. I've found a solution.

My 2019 theme is: live the good life. If you live the good life, how can life not be better?

Some people like to tighten their belts during economic uncertainty. I used to be one of those people in 2008-2009. But after a raging bull market since 2009, I feel it's OK for my family to start spending more on life instead of letting our investments piss away our wealth.

Besides, if panic increases, there will be lots of things going on sale. Let's first discuss my outlook for 2019 and then I'll go over my goals.

Financial Samurai 2019 Outlook

Things are uncertain, to say the least. From policy errors by the Federal Reserve to trade wars by Trump to a drastic slowdown in corporate earnings growth (20%+ down to ~7%), we are facing many headwinds in 2019.

Despite the 4Q2018 sell-off in the stock market, JP still wants to raise rates another two times in 2019 to keep inflation at 2%. There's an old saying on Wall Street: don't fight the Fed. You will get run over.

If the housing market is weakening, the stock market is correcting, and if the labor market softens given companies are now 20% less valuable on average, it's baffling why the Fed thinks inflation will accelerate in 2019.

The good news is that 4Q2018 has baked in a lot of the negatives. Valuations are now at around historical averages and expectations have been reset. And unless JP is a complete idiot for going to Princeton and Georgetown, he will probably adjust his interest rate stance if we enter full bear market territory. And let's put things in perspective, a -6.4% year for the S&P 500 is not that bad.

The question everybody needs to ask themselves is whether the equity risk premium is worth taking. If you can get a 2.45% risk-free rate of return or pay down more expensive debt (mortgage, student loans, credit cards), is it worth taking risk in equities to maybe make a potentially greater return?

My answer is no. Give me a 2.45% – 5% guaranteed return any day while the world recalibrates. The stress of trying to make perhaps a 10% return in the stock market is simply not worth the premium since there's probably an equal chance stocks will go down. The peace of mind of a risk-free return should not be under-appreciated, especially if you have more certain ways to make money.

Of course, there are no guarantees. Therefore, my plan is to keep my existing public investments just the way they are (45%/55% stocks/bonds) and use my monthly cash flow to pay down debt and invest in a 70%/30% ratio. At the very minimum, my Solo 401(k), SEP IRA, and son's 529 plan will all be maxed out. If the S&P 500 gets back to 2,800+, I will be aggressively selling down more stocks.

I'm in the “low interest rates for life” camp. Once again, I don't see the 10-year bond yield finishing over 3% in 2019. This is a risky call since the 10-year bond yield is not far away at 2.75%, and reached as high as 3.2% in 2018. But this call simply means the yield curve will continue to flatten as the Fed stubbornly continues to raise rates, leading to a recession by 2020.

Given it takes 2-5 years for real estate cycles to play out, I see further weakness all year in expensive coastal city real estate markets like San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, LA, San Diego, Boston, New York, and Washington DC. Cities with unlimited land for expansion like Las Vegas, Dallas, and Denver are likely going to continue weakening as inventory surges higher. The heartland of America will not be immune to a real estate slowdown unfortunately.

The positive in real estate is that mortgage rates will continue to stay low. With rising inventory and low interest rates, affordability will increase and bring in new buyers. There might even be a refinancing boom again. I don't see a real estate crash like the stock market crash of 4Q2018. Instead, we'll see a soft landing as prices slowly decline by another 5% – 10%.

Finally, I predict more people than ever will generate new income sources beyond their day job. Whether it is starting a website or investing in assets that are countercyclical to the stock market, people will no longer take their job security for granted.

Only the misinformed believe a large correction in stocks has no bearing on future corporate employment decisions. You must always be forward-thinking when it comes to investing.

Buckle down folks! If you do not get your finances right in 2019, you might end up losing years worth of time and effort. 2019 is not the time to be a hero. Instead, 2019 is the year to bullet proof your finances by earning more based on what you can control.

A possible scenario to be aware of by 2020 according to Nomura

Financial Samurai 2019 Goals

1) No gray hairs, no chronic pain. I've learned over the years that our body reveals our true stress level no matter what we do or what we say. My goal is to keep things like sciatica, lower back pain, TMJ, grey hairs, wrinkles, hair loss, migraines, and excessive weight gain at bay in order to live longer and feel healthier. Stress is the silent killer of our generation.

Specific activities for the year include: exercising and stretching 3X a week, taking walks with my son 5X a week, incorporating 15 minutes of meditation 3X a week, and eliminating sugary drinks. I will continue to maintain a body weight of between 165 – 170 lbs at 5′ 10″.

2) Remain unemployed until September. My son turns two in April, and I plan to remain a stay at home dad at least until then. Although, I've given myself a green light to find full-time work after two years, my ultimate goal is to remain a stay at home dad until he is eligible for preschool in September if he is mature enough to attend. If he is not, then my goal is to remain a SAHD until September 2020 for 3 years, 9 months total.

In order to stay unemployed, I need to make sure my risk exposure is appropriate so I don't stress out about losing too much money, get out of the house at least two hours a day for some me time, and attend more social functions. Activities include tennis, softball, startup gatherings, Napa/Lake Tahoe getaways, and our first family trip to Hawaii. Of course, if the bull market continues, then staying unemployed will be relatively easy.

3) Hire help for the business. After almost 10 years of running Financial Samurai with only my wife, it's time to get some help with writing. I'll be slowly looking for someone who is WordPress savvy, trustworthy, intelligent, reliable, dedicated, believes in my five core principles, enjoys writing and wants to earn some steady side hustle income. The fit has to be fantastic, otherwise, I'll just continue to operate the site as usual.

I realize many sites my size or smaller have 1-4 people, on average, working to write content and handle some of the business elements. Now that I've discovered how great it is to hire help around the house, it's only logical to hire help for our business.

4) Focus on profits. Since I'm going to hire help for the business, I want to get a return on my investment. To not get an ROI on my capital expenditure would make me a foolish businessman.

I or my new hire will write more review posts, develop more affiliate partnerships, build my blog marketing business, update my severance negotiation book, and maybe create a new Financial Samurai product. I'll still publish my usual style posts 2-3X a week. There will just be more content all around as there is no limit to how many posts and pages a website can publish.

It's going to feel great to finally start seriously focusing on monetizing Financial Samurai after 10 years. I already get the occasional flak from readers who criticize my work and don't pay me a cent. So I now plan to unabashedly take full advantage of my platform to take care of my family, especially if the economy softens.

5) Grow the Financial Samurai Forum. For four years, I was a forum junkie in college. It was one of the best ways I learned about investing and finance. But in order for a forum to grow, it needs to be nurtured. Therefore, I plan to continue posting and corresponding at least 5X a week on the forum to build the FS community.

I have a 5-year plan to grow the Financial Samurai Forum into one of the best financial forums on the web. Specifically, I want to double its traffic in 2019. The forum is geared towards people who fundamentally believe that making more money is a better way to grow wealth than mainly through saving. I want to build a community that is open-minded and always curious about new ways to get better. I'm aiming for thought diversity not groupthink.

6) Help my boy reach the following milestones by year-end. Being a full-time parent is an incredibly rewarding job because you get to teach and witness progress on a daily basis. I've discovered that through Financial Samurai, foster youth mentoring, and coaching high school tennis that I enjoy being an educator. Below are some specific goals we are looking to help him develop by 2 years 9 months.

Play and Social Skills

Sit comfortably in circle time for more than 10 minutes

Enjoy playing with the piano, guitar, and drums

Play with toys without mouthing them

Screw and unscrew jar lids and turn door handles

Build towers of more than 6 blocks

Copy a circle with pencil or crayon

Show affection for friends without prompting

Be away from parents with supportive and familiar people for 4 hours or more to prepare for pre-school

Coordination

Walk down stairs unassisted

Maintain balance while catching a ball or when gently bumped by peers

Throw and attempt to catch ball without losing balance

Walk and maintain balance over uneven surfaces

Use both hands equally to play and explore toys

Learn to pedal a tricycle

Daily Activities

Able to self-calm in car rides when not tired or hungry

Tolerate diaper changes without crying or whining

Has an established sleep schedule of 10 hours or more a night and 1-2 hours of nap time after lunch at least 5X a week

Able to self-calm to fall asleep

Able to tolerate and stay calm during dental visits

Able to brush his teeth without whining or crying 3X a day

Is potty trained before preschool starts in September

Dresses and undresses self by figuring out buttons, zippers, and straps

Communication

Is able to consistently use 3-4 word phrases e.g. “I am hungry,” “The garage door is white,” “Walk with daddy,” “Financial Samurai is the best!”

Uses “in” and “on”

At least 75% of speech is understood by any caregiver

Follows 2-step unrelated directions, e.g. “give me the ball and go get your coat”

Understands “mine” and “yours”

Says words like “I,” “me,” “we,” and “you” and some plurals (cars, dogs, cats)

Understands half of what we communicate to him in English, in Mandarin

The next 12 months is going to be a huge challenge due to his growing temper tantrums. Another challenge is staying healthy since we're all getting sick more often now as he's exposed to other kids. Luckily, my wife and I haven't been sick at the same time yet. We'll finally introduce some screen time to him after his second birthday, which should help keep him occupied during trips.

7) Spend $1,500 more a month on life. We have frugality disease. We are spending less today than we were in our late 20s, despite having a much higher income and net worth. Our estate planning lawyer sessions really made us realize we will likely die with too much.

I've been slowly spending more money on things that may improve our lives. For example, the $4,000 large jet tub I bought in 2014 has come in handy for family bath time now. The $15,000 I spent on the outdoor hot tub in 1H2017 was one of the best purchases ever. Further, I have no regrets paying $58,000 cash for a used family car in December 2016 either. Baby steps on the road to lifestyle inflation!

We will allocate the extra $1,500 in spending towards more babysitting help, more massages, bi-monthly house cleaning, and quarterly gardening. We will purchase at least economy plus tickets for all our parents to come visit. Further, if we take our first flight as a family, we will purchase economy plus tickets as well.

We are also going to regularly give to two charities all year. One will be to a center for foster kids and abused youth. Another will be for children with visual impairments. I also like supporting public park tennis initiatives.

Related: Practice Taking Profits To Pay For A Better Life

8) Pay off $200,000 of mortgage debt. Paying off my SF rental condo in 2015 felt wonderful. I don't care whether it goes up or down in value because I truly plan to own it forever. Selling my SF rental house and paying off a $815,000 mortgage in the process also felt terrific. No matter how much more I could have made investing in risk assets, I've never regretted paying off debt.

Our ultimate goal is to be debt free by 2022, when our boy is ready for kindergarten. Paying down $200,000 a year in extra mortgage debt will accomplish this goal. In a bear market, it feels great to earn a guaranteed return. But it's also important to have lots of liquidity to take advantage of opportunities as well.

9) Aggressively search for a larger house. I dodged a canon in 2018 by not buying a larger house for more money. I wrote two offers for San Francisco homes that both got rejected. I was seriously going to try and buy this one expensive SF house in a great neighborhood, but by the time I was going to put in an offer, they had accepted another offer on November 1 for asking. If I had bought the house I'd be feeling nervous today since the stock market corrected by 20% soon after. It's not unreasonable to assume to house is now worth $200,000 (4.5%) less today.

Meanwhile, the seller of the house in Honolulu I've been eyeing since 2016 gave up trying to find a buyer in 4Q2018 and rented out the house from Oct – January to short-term tenants. The original asking price was $4.7M in 2016. Today, I think there's a good chance they will accept $3.5M – $3.7M because they finally dropped the ask down to $3.98M.

I want a bigger house in SF so my parents, in-laws and sister can come visit for a longer period of time. One more bathroom and 500 sqft more of space would be ideal. However, if I move to Honolulu, I won't need a bigger house since my parents have their own house.

I anticipate there will be many more deals in 2019 given inventory will likely be up 50% – 150% in San Francisco and Honolulu. I suspect the IPOs of Uber, Lyft and others will put a -10% floor on SF prices.

10) Be a voice for at least 50% of the population. Due to the high cost of living, there are very few personal finance bloggers who live in an expensive coastal city. This makes rational sense, especially if you are a FIRE blogger. But a full 50% of the national population lives in expensive coastal cities and other big cities around the country that face slightly different challenges. Same for many big city residents around the world e.g. London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai, etc. Therefore, I have an opportunity to establish Financial Samurai as a go-to resource for big-city audiences.

It's going to be fun tackling topics such as: private grade school tuition, the feasibility of retiring early with a family in a HCOL area, forsaking wealth and prestige, the dangers of creating multi-generational wealth, featuring diverse cultural backgrounds, and more. My goal is to convince big media to provide a more diverse perspective on financial independence since not everybody can or wants to move to a low cost area of the country.

11) Be more forgiving of myself. No matter what project I undertake, I always run through the finish line. Financial Samurai's finish line is July 1, 2019 after I made a promise in 2009 to publish 3X a week for 10 years. After that, who knows the future.

The funny thing about this finish line is that it is completely arbitrary. There is absolutely no need to put pressure on myself to produce so much content, especially if I'm having a rough week or sick. Financial Samurai surpassed my expectations long ago. Therefore, I'm going to give myself four weeks where I'll just publish one post plus I'll take it easy the entire month of June, when traffic is slowest.

By giving myself a break, I hope to sleep in more regularly until 6am. For the majority of 2018, I was naturally waking up by 5am after going to bed around 11pm. But during 4Q2018 and after daylight savings, I started naturally waking up as early as 3:30am to get my writing done before my wife and son woke. This crazy early time must have been due to increased anxiety from the stock market collapse.

With more sleep and less stress, I hope to improve my overall mental health and happiness. My desire to constantly grind stems from mistakes made in high school, plenty more rejections as an adult, and an indoctrination since I was a kid that I need to try harder as a minority to get ahead in America. I know I have a really good thing going now, so I don't want to take my good fortune for granted.

12) Celebrate big and small wins. To make the hustle more worthwhile, we will celebrate all our achievements as parents, writers, and entrepreneurs. A celebration can be as small as opening a nice bottle of wine. These celebrations will also help us fulfill our goal of spending more.

Every evening I will highlight something specific I appreciate about my wife so she always feels recognized and loved. She is an incredible full-time mom who also launched the FS Forum, finalized our revocable living trust, registered How To Engineer Your Layoff and Cutie Baby with the Library Of Congress, and is responsible for all ongoing business accounting. It's clear I haven't done a good enough job appreciating her efforts over the years, which is why I'm committed to do more for her in 2019 and beyond.

Steady As She Goes

If we can grow our net worth by just 5%, I'll be happy. I'm willing to forego upside investment potential to help ensure our net worth goes up in 2019. Despite our public investments accounting for only about 30% of our net worth, it gave me the most stress in 2018. This will change.

I still have hope the Fed will slow down its rate hikes. If they do, I'm confident the economy will chug along at 2% – 2.5% GDP growth and not enter into a recession. However, there are no exciting positive catalysts on the horizon except for a trade agreement with China by end of 1Q. 2019 will likely be another volatile year.

The last two years working on FS and being a SAHD has worn me out. Given we save most of our after-tax business income by living off our passive income, I'm excited to live it up more in 2019 and use my “vacation credits” to take it easier.

If you have any tips on how to smartly inflate your lifestyle without feeling guilty, I'd love to hear them. I also want to learn how to inhale the roses more often without feeling the need to always be productive.

What are some of your goals for 2019? How do you see the stock market and economy unfolding?

The post Financial Samurai 2019 Economic Outlook And Personal Goals appeared first on Financial Samurai.

[kerrychelly-blog]

Financial Samurai 2019 Economic Outlook And Personal Goals

Happy 2019 everyone!

With my 2018 finishing with 3.8 4.0 out of 5.0 stars, I've thought long and hard about how I can make 2019 better. I've found a solution.

My 2019 theme is: live the good life. If you live the good life, how can life not be better?

Some people like to tighten their belts during economic uncertainty. I used to be one of those people in 2008-2009. But after a raging bull market since 2009, I feel it's OK for my family to start spending more on life instead of letting our investments piss away our wealth.

Besides, if panic increases, there will be lots of things going on sale. Let's first discuss my outlook for 2019 and then I'll go over my goals.

Financial Samurai 2019 Outlook

Things are uncertain, to say the least. From policy errors by the Federal Reserve to trade wars by Trump to a drastic slowdown in corporate earnings growth (20%+ down to ~7%), we are facing many headwinds in 2019.

Despite the 4Q2018 sell-off in the stock market, JP still wants to raise rates another two times in 2019 to keep inflation at 2%. There's an old saying on Wall Street: don't fight the Fed. You will get run over.

If the housing market is weakening, the stock market is correcting, and if the labor market softens given companies are now 20% less valuable on average, it's baffling why the Fed thinks inflation will accelerate in 2019.

The good news is that 4Q2018 has baked in a lot of the negatives. Valuations are now at around historical averages and expectations have been reset. And unless JP is a complete idiot for going to Princeton and Georgetown, he will probably adjust his interest rate stance if we enter full bear market territory. And let's put things in perspective, a -6.4% year for the S&P 500 is not that bad.

The question everybody needs to ask themselves is whether the equity risk premium is worth taking. If you can get a 2.45% risk-free rate of return or pay down more expensive debt (mortgage, student loans, credit cards), is it worth taking risk in equities to maybe make a potentially greater return?

My answer is no. Give me a 2.45% – 5% guaranteed return any day while the world recalibrates. The stress of trying to make perhaps a 10% return in the stock market is simply not worth the premium since there's probably an equal chance stocks will go down. The peace of mind of a risk-free return should not be under-appreciated, especially if you have more certain ways to make money.

Of course, there are no guarantees. Therefore, my plan is to keep my existing public investments just the way they are (45%/55% stocks/bonds) and use my monthly cash flow to pay down debt and invest in a 70%/30% ratio. At the very minimum, my Solo 401(k), SEP IRA, and son's 529 plan will all be maxed out. If the S&P 500 gets back to 2,800+, I will be aggressively selling down more stocks.

I'm in the “low interest rates for life” camp. Once again, I don't see the 10-year bond yield finishing over 3% in 2019. This is a risky call since the 10-year bond yield is not far away at 2.75%, and reached as high as 3.2% in 2018. But this call simply means the yield curve will continue to flatten as the Fed stubbornly continues to raise rates, leading to a recession by 2020.

Given it takes 2-5 years for real estate cycles to play out, I see further weakness all year in expensive coastal city real estate markets like San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, LA, San Diego, Boston, New York, and Washington DC. Cities with unlimited land for expansion like Las Vegas, Dallas, and Denver are likely going to continue weakening as inventory surges higher. The heartland of America will not be immune to a real estate slowdown unfortunately.

The positive in real estate is that mortgage rates will continue to stay low. With rising inventory and low interest rates, affordability will increase and bring in new buyers. There might even be a refinancing boom again. I don't see a real estate crash like the stock market crash of 4Q2018. Instead, we'll see a soft landing as prices slowly decline by another 5% – 10%.

Finally, I predict more people than ever will generate new income sources beyond their day job. Whether it is starting a website or investing in assets that are countercyclical to the stock market, people will no longer take their job security for granted.

Only the misinformed believe a large correction in stocks has no bearing on future corporate employment decisions. You must always be forward-thinking when it comes to investing.

Buckle down folks! If you do not get your finances right in 2019, you might end up losing years worth of time and effort. 2019 is not the time to be a hero. Instead, 2019 is the year to bullet proof your finances by earning more based on what you can control.

A possible scenario to be aware of by 2020 according to Nomura

Financial Samurai 2019 Goals

1) No gray hairs, no chronic pain. I've learned over the years that our body reveals our true stress level no matter what we do or what we say. My goal is to keep things like sciatica, lower back pain, TMJ, grey hairs, wrinkles, hair loss, migraines, and excessive weight gain at bay in order to live longer and feel healthier. Stress is the silent killer of our generation.

Specific activities for the year include: exercising and stretching 3X a week, taking walks with my son 5X a week, incorporating 15 minutes of meditation 3X a week, and eliminating sugary drinks. I will continue to maintain a body weight of between 165 – 170 lbs at 5′ 10″.

2) Remain unemployed until September. My son turns two in April, and I plan to remain a stay at home dad at least until then. Although, I've given myself a green light to find full-time work after two years, my ultimate goal is to remain a stay at home dad until he is eligible for preschool in September if he is mature enough to attend. If he is not, then my goal is to remain a SAHD until September 2020 for 3 years, 9 months total.

In order to stay unemployed, I need to make sure my risk exposure is appropriate so I don't stress out about losing too much money, get out of the house at least two hours a day for some me time, and attend more social functions. Activities include tennis, softball, startup gatherings, Napa/Lake Tahoe getaways, and our first family trip to Hawaii. Of course, if the bull market continues, then staying unemployed will be relatively easy.

3) Hire help for the business. After almost 10 years of running Financial Samurai with only my wife, it's time to get some help with writing. I'll be slowly looking for someone who is WordPress savvy, trustworthy, intelligent, reliable, dedicated, believes in my five core principles, enjoys writing and wants to earn some steady side hustle income. The fit has to be fantastic, otherwise, I'll just continue to operate the site as usual.

I realize many sites my size or smaller have 1-4 people, on average, working to write content and handle some of the business elements. Now that I've discovered how great it is to hire help around the house, it's only logical to hire help for our business.

4) Focus on profits. Since I'm going to hire help for the business, I want to get a return on my investment. To not get an ROI on my capital expenditure would make me a foolish businessman.

I or my new hire will write more review posts, develop more affiliate partnerships, build my blog marketing business, update my severance negotiation book, and maybe create a new Financial Samurai product. I'll still publish my usual style posts 2-3X a week. There will just be more content all around as there is no limit to how many posts and pages a website can publish.

It's going to feel great to finally start seriously focusing on monetizing Financial Samurai after 10 years. I already get the occasional flak from readers who criticize my work and don't pay me a cent. So I now plan to unabashedly take full advantage of my platform to take care of my family, especially if the economy softens.

5) Grow the Financial Samurai Forum. For four years, I was a forum junkie in college. It was one of the best ways I learned about investing and finance. But in order for a forum to grow, it needs to be nurtured. Therefore, I plan to continue posting and corresponding at least 5X a week on the forum to build the FS community.

I have a 5-year plan to grow the Financial Samurai Forum into one of the best financial forums on the web. Specifically, I want to double its traffic in 2019. The forum is geared towards people who fundamentally believe that making more money is a better way to grow wealth than mainly through saving. I want to build a community that is open-minded and always curious about new ways to get better. I'm aiming for thought diversity not groupthink.

6) Help my boy reach the following milestones by year-end. Being a full-time parent is an incredibly rewarding job because you get to teach and witness progress on a daily basis. I've discovered that through Financial Samurai, foster youth mentoring, and coaching high school tennis that I enjoy being an educator. Below are some specific goals we are looking to help him develop by 2 years 9 months.

Play and Social Skills

Sit comfortably in circle time for more than 10 minutes

Enjoy playing with the piano, guitar, and drums

Play with toys without mouthing them

Screw and unscrew jar lids and turn door handles

Build towers of more than 6 blocks

Copy a circle with pencil or crayon

Show affection for friends without prompting

Be away from parents with supportive and familiar people for 4 hours or more to prepare for pre-school

Coordination

Walk down stairs unassisted

Maintain balance while catching a ball or when gently bumped by peers

Throw and attempt to catch ball without losing balance

Walk and maintain balance over uneven surfaces

Use both hands equally to play and explore toys

Learn to pedal a tricycle

Daily Activities

Able to self-calm in car rides when not tired or hungry

Tolerate diaper changes without crying or whining

Has an established sleep schedule of 10 hours or more a night and 1-2 hours of nap time after lunch at least 5X a week

Able to self-calm to fall asleep

Able to tolerate and stay calm during dental visits

Able to brush his teeth without whining or crying 3X a day

Is potty trained before preschool starts in September

Dresses and undresses self by figuring out buttons, zippers, and straps

Communication

Is able to consistently use 3-4 word phrases e.g. “I am hungry,” “The garage door is white,” “Walk with daddy,” “Financial Samurai is the best!”

Uses “in” and “on”

At least 75% of speech is understood by any caregiver

Follows 2-step unrelated directions, e.g. “give me the ball and go get your coat”

Understands “mine” and “yours”

Says words like “I,” “me,” “we,” and “you” and some plurals (cars, dogs, cats)

Understands half of what we communicate to him in English, in Mandarin

The next 12 months is going to be a huge challenge due to his growing temper tantrums. Another challenge is staying healthy since we're all getting sick more often now as he's exposed to other kids. Luckily, my wife and I haven't been sick at the same time yet. We'll finally introduce some screen time to him after his second birthday, which should help keep him occupied during trips.

7) Spend $1,500 more a month on life. We have frugality disease. We are spending less today than we were in our late 20s, despite having a much higher income and net worth. Our estate planning lawyer sessions really made us realize we will likely die with too much.

I've been slowly spending more money on things that may improve our lives. For example, the $4,000 large jet tub I bought in 2014 has come in handy for family bath time now. The $15,000 I spent on the outdoor hot tub in 1H2017 was one of the best purchases ever. Further, I have no regrets paying $58,000 cash for a used family car in December 2016 either. Baby steps on the road to lifestyle inflation!

We will allocate the extra $1,500 in spending towards more babysitting help, more massages, bi-monthly house cleaning, and quarterly gardening. We will purchase at least economy plus tickets for all our parents to come visit. Further, if we take our first flight as a family, we will purchase economy plus tickets as well.

We are also going to regularly give to two charities all year. One will be to a center for foster kids and abused youth. Another will be for children with visual impairments. I also like supporting public park tennis initiatives.

Related: Practice Taking Profits To Pay For A Better Life

8) Pay off $200,000 of mortgage debt. Paying off my SF rental condo in 2015 felt wonderful. I don't care whether it goes up or down in value because I truly plan to own it forever. Selling my SF rental house and paying off a $815,000 mortgage in the process also felt terrific. No matter how much more I could have made investing in risk assets, I've never regretted paying off debt.

Our ultimate goal is to be debt free by 2022, when our boy is ready for kindergarten. Paying down $200,000 a year in extra mortgage debt will accomplish this goal. In a bear market, it feels great to earn a guaranteed return. But it's also important to have lots of liquidity to take advantage of opportunities as well.

9) Aggressively search for a larger house. I dodged a canon in 2018 by not buying a larger house for more money. I wrote two offers for San Francisco homes that both got rejected. I was seriously going to try and buy this one expensive SF house in a great neighborhood, but by the time I was going to put in an offer, they had accepted another offer on November 1 for asking. If I had bought the house I'd be feeling nervous today since the stock market corrected by 20% soon after. It's not unreasonable to assume to house is now worth $200,000 (4.5%) less today.

Meanwhile, the seller of the house in Honolulu I've been eyeing since 2016 gave up trying to find a buyer in 4Q2018 and rented out the house from Oct – January to short-term tenants. The original asking price was $4.7M in 2016. Today, I think there's a good chance they will accept $3.5M – $3.7M because they finally dropped the ask down to $3.98M.

I want a bigger house in SF so my parents, in-laws and sister can come visit for a longer period of time. One more bathroom and 500 sqft more of space would be ideal. However, if I move to Honolulu, I won't need a bigger house since my parents have their own house.

I anticipate there will be many more deals in 2019 given inventory will likely be up 50% – 150% in San Francisco and Honolulu. I suspect the IPOs of Uber, Lyft and others will put a -10% floor on SF prices.

10) Be a voice for at least 50% of the population. Due to the high cost of living, there are very few personal finance bloggers who live in an expensive coastal city. This makes rational sense, especially if you are a FIRE blogger. But a full 50% of the national population lives in expensive coastal cities and other big cities around the country that face slightly different challenges. Same for many big city residents around the world e.g. London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai, etc. Therefore, I have an opportunity to establish Financial Samurai as a go-to resource for big-city audiences.

It's going to be fun tackling topics such as: private grade school tuition, the feasibility of retiring early with a family in a HCOL area, forsaking wealth and prestige, the dangers of creating multi-generational wealth, featuring diverse cultural backgrounds, and more. My goal is to convince big media to provide a more diverse perspective on financial independence since not everybody can or wants to move to a low cost area of the country.

11) Be more forgiving of myself. No matter what project I undertake, I always run through the finish line. Financial Samurai's finish line is July 1, 2019 after I made a promise in 2009 to publish 3X a week for 10 years. After that, who knows the future.

The funny thing about this finish line is that it is completely arbitrary. There is absolutely no need to put pressure on myself to produce so much content, especially if I'm having a rough week or sick. Financial Samurai surpassed my expectations long ago. Therefore, I'm going to give myself four weeks where I'll just publish one post plus I'll take it easy the entire month of June, when traffic is slowest.

By giving myself a break, I hope to sleep in more regularly until 6am. For the majority of 2018, I was naturally waking up by 5am after going to bed around 11pm. But during 4Q2018 and after daylight savings, I started naturally waking up as early as 3:30am to get my writing done before my wife and son woke. This crazy early time must have been due to increased anxiety from the stock market collapse.

With more sleep and less stress, I hope to improve my overall mental health and happiness. My desire to constantly grind stems from mistakes made in high school, plenty more rejections as an adult, and an indoctrination since I was a kid that I need to try harder as a minority to get ahead in America. I know I have a really good thing going now, so I don't want to take my good fortune for granted.

12) Celebrate big and small wins. To make the hustle more worthwhile, we will celebrate all our achievements as parents, writers, and entrepreneurs. A celebration can be as small as opening a nice bottle of wine. These celebrations will also help us fulfill our goal of spending more.

Every evening I will highlight something specific I appreciate about my wife so she always feels recognized and loved. She is an incredible full-time mom who also launched the FS Forum, finalized our revocable living trust, registered How To Engineer Your Layoff and Cutie Baby with the Library Of Congress, and is responsible for all ongoing business accounting. It's clear I haven't done a good enough job appreciating her efforts over the years, which is why I'm committed to do more for her in 2019 and beyond.

Steady As She Goes

If we can grow our net worth by just 5%, I'll be happy. I'm willing to forego upside investment potential to help ensure our net worth goes up in 2019. Despite our public investments accounting for only about 30% of our net worth, it gave me the most stress in 2018. This will change.

I still have hope the Fed will slow down its rate hikes. If they do, I'm confident the economy will chug along at 2% – 2.5% GDP growth and not enter into a recession. However, there are no exciting positive catalysts on the horizon except for a trade agreement with China by end of 1Q. 2019 will likely be another volatile year.

The last two years working on FS and being a SAHD has worn me out. Given we save most of our after-tax business income by living off our passive income, I'm excited to live it up more in 2019 and use my “vacation credits” to take it easier.

If you have any tips on how to smartly inflate your lifestyle without feeling guilty, I'd love to hear them. I also want to learn how to inhale the roses more often without feeling the need to always be productive.

What are some of your goals for 2019? How do you see the stock market and economy unfolding?

The post Financial Samurai 2019 Economic Outlook And Personal Goals appeared first on Financial Samurai.

[robertheiser-blog]

Financial Samurai 2019 Economic Outlook And Personal Goals

Happy 2019 everyone!

With my 2018 finishing with 3.8 4.0 out of 5.0 stars, I've thought long and hard about how I can make 2019 better. I've found a solution.

My 2019 theme is: live the good life. If you live the good life, how can life not be better?

Some people like to tighten their belts during economic uncertainty. I used to be one of those people in 2008-2009. But after a raging bull market since 2009, I feel it's OK for my family to start spending more on life instead of letting our investments piss away our wealth.

Besides, if panic increases, there will be lots of things going on sale. Let's first discuss my outlook for 2019 and then I'll go over my goals.

Financial Samurai 2019 Outlook

Things are uncertain, to say the least. From policy errors by the Federal Reserve to trade wars by Trump to a drastic slowdown in corporate earnings growth (20%+ down to ~7%), we are facing many headwinds in 2019.

Despite the 4Q2018 sell-off in the stock market, JP still wants to raise rates another two times in 2019 to keep inflation at 2%. There's an old saying on Wall Street: don't fight the Fed. You will get run over.

If the housing market is weakening, the stock market is correcting, and if the labor market softens given companies are now 20% less valuable on average, it's baffling why the Fed thinks inflation will accelerate in 2019.

The good news is that 4Q2018 has baked in a lot of the negatives. Valuations are now at around historical averages and expectations have been reset. And unless JP is a complete idiot for going to Princeton and Georgetown, he will probably adjust his interest rate stance if we enter full bear market territory. And let's put things in perspective, a -6.4% year for the S&P 500 is not that bad.

The question everybody needs to ask themselves is whether the equity risk premium is worth taking. If you can get a 2.45% risk-free rate of return or pay down more expensive debt (mortgage, student loans, credit cards), is it worth taking risk in equities to maybe make a potentially greater return?

My answer is no. Give me a 2.45% – 5% guaranteed return any day while the world recalibrates. The stress of trying to make perhaps a 10% return in the stock market is simply not worth the premium since there's probably an equal chance stocks will go down. The peace of mind of a risk-free return should not be under-appreciated, especially if you have more certain ways to make money.

Of course, there are no guarantees. Therefore, my plan is to keep my existing public investments just the way they are (45%/55% stocks/bonds) and use my monthly cash flow to pay down debt and invest in a 70%/30% ratio. At the very minimum, my Solo 401(k), SEP IRA, and son's 529 plan will all be maxed out. If the S&P 500 gets back to 2,800+, I will be aggressively selling down more stocks.

I'm in the “low interest rates for life” camp. Once again, I don't see the 10-year bond yield finishing over 3% in 2019. This is a risky call since the 10-year bond yield is not far away at 2.75%, and reached as high as 3.2% in 2018. But this call simply means the yield curve will continue to flatten as the Fed stubbornly continues to raise rates, leading to a recession by 2020.

Given it takes 2-5 years for real estate cycles to play out, I see further weakness all year in expensive coastal city real estate markets like San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, LA, San Diego, Boston, New York, and Washington DC. Cities with unlimited land for expansion like Las Vegas, Dallas, and Denver are likely going to continue weakening as inventory surges higher. The heartland of America will not be immune to a real estate slowdown unfortunately.

The positive in real estate is that mortgage rates will continue to stay low. With rising inventory and low interest rates, affordability will increase and bring in new buyers. There might even be a refinancing boom again. I don't see a real estate crash like the stock market crash of 4Q2018. Instead, we'll see a soft landing as prices slowly decline by another 5% – 10%.

Finally, I predict more people than ever will generate new income sources beyond their day job. Whether it is starting a website or investing in assets that are countercyclical to the stock market, people will no longer take their job security for granted.

Only the misinformed believe a large correction in stocks has no bearing on future corporate employment decisions. You must always be forward-thinking when it comes to investing.

Buckle down folks! If you do not get your finances right in 2019, you might end up losing years worth of time and effort. 2019 is not the time to be a hero. Instead, 2019 is the year to bullet proof your finances by earning more based on what you can control.

A possible scenario to be aware of by 2020 according to Nomura

Financial Samurai 2019 Goals

1) No gray hairs, no chronic pain. I've learned over the years that our body reveals our true stress level no matter what we do or what we say. My goal is to keep things like sciatica, lower back pain, TMJ, grey hairs, wrinkles, hair loss, migraines, and excessive weight gain at bay in order to live longer and feel healthier. Stress is the silent killer of our generation.

Specific activities for the year include: exercising and stretching 3X a week, taking walks with my son 5X a week, incorporating 15 minutes of meditation 3X a week, and eliminating sugary drinks. I will continue to maintain a body weight of between 165 – 170 lbs at 5′ 10″.

2) Remain unemployed until September. My son turns two in April, and I plan to remain a stay at home dad at least until then. Although, I've given myself a green light to find full-time work after two years, my ultimate goal is to remain a stay at home dad until he is eligible for preschool in September if he is mature enough to attend. If he is not, then my goal is to remain a SAHD until September 2020 for 3 years, 9 months total.

In order to stay unemployed, I need to make sure my risk exposure is appropriate so I don't stress out about losing too much money, get out of the house at least two hours a day for some me time, and attend more social functions. Activities include tennis, softball, startup gatherings, Napa/Lake Tahoe getaways, and our first family trip to Hawaii. Of course, if the bull market continues, then staying unemployed will be relatively easy.

3) Hire help for the business. After almost 10 years of running Financial Samurai with only my wife, it's time to get some help with writing. I'll be slowly looking for someone who is WordPress savvy, trustworthy, intelligent, reliable, dedicated, believes in my five core principles, enjoys writing and wants to earn some steady side hustle income. The fit has to be fantastic, otherwise, I'll just continue to operate the site as usual.

I realize many sites my size or smaller have 1-4 people, on average, working to write content and handle some of the business elements. Now that I've discovered how great it is to hire help around the house, it's only logical to hire help for our business.

4) Focus on profits. Since I'm going to hire help for the business, I want to get a return on my investment. To not get an ROI on my capital expenditure would make me a foolish businessman.

I or my new hire will write more review posts, develop more affiliate partnerships, build my blog marketing business, update my severance negotiation book, and maybe create a new Financial Samurai product. I'll still publish my usual style posts 2-3X a week. There will just be more content all around as there is no limit to how many posts and pages a website can publish.

It's going to feel great to finally start seriously focusing on monetizing Financial Samurai after 10 years. I already get the occasional flak from readers who criticize my work and don't pay me a cent. So I now plan to unabashedly take full advantage of my platform to take care of my family, especially if the economy softens.

5) Grow the Financial Samurai Forum. For four years, I was a forum junkie in college. It was one of the best ways I learned about investing and finance. But in order for a forum to grow, it needs to be nurtured. Therefore, I plan to continue posting and corresponding at least 5X a week on the forum to build the FS community.

I have a 5-year plan to grow the Financial Samurai Forum into one of the best financial forums on the web. Specifically, I want to double its traffic in 2019. The forum is geared towards people who fundamentally believe that making more money is a better way to grow wealth than mainly through saving. I want to build a community that is open-minded and always curious about new ways to get better. I'm aiming for thought diversity not groupthink.

6) Help my boy reach the following milestones by year-end. Being a full-time parent is an incredibly rewarding job because you get to teach and witness progress on a daily basis. I've discovered that through Financial Samurai, foster youth mentoring, and coaching high school tennis that I enjoy being an educator. Below are some specific goals we are looking to help him develop by 2 years 9 months.

Play and Social Skills

Sit comfortably in circle time for more than 10 minutes

Enjoy playing with the piano, guitar, and drums

Play with toys without mouthing them

Screw and unscrew jar lids and turn door handles

Build towers of more than 6 blocks

Copy a circle with pencil or crayon

Show affection for friends without prompting

Be away from parents with supportive and familiar people for 4 hours or more to prepare for pre-school

Coordination

Walk down stairs unassisted

Maintain balance while catching a ball or when gently bumped by peers

Throw and attempt to catch ball without losing balance

Walk and maintain balance over uneven surfaces

Use both hands equally to play and explore toys

Learn to pedal a tricycle

Daily Activities

Able to self-calm in car rides when not tired or hungry

Tolerate diaper changes without crying or whining

Has an established sleep schedule of 10 hours or more a night and 1-2 hours of nap time after lunch at least 5X a week

Able to self-calm to fall asleep

Able to tolerate and stay calm during dental visits

Able to brush his teeth without whining or crying 3X a day

Is potty trained before preschool starts in September

Dresses and undresses self by figuring out buttons, zippers, and straps

Communication

Is able to consistently use 3-4 word phrases e.g. “I am hungry,” “The garage door is white,” “Walk with daddy,” “Financial Samurai is the best!”

Uses “in” and “on”

At least 75% of speech is understood by any caregiver

Follows 2-step unrelated directions, e.g. “give me the ball and go get your coat”

Understands “mine” and “yours”

Says words like “I,” “me,” “we,” and “you” and some plurals (cars, dogs, cats)

Understands half of what we communicate to him in English, in Mandarin

The next 12 months is going to be a huge challenge due to his growing temper tantrums. Another challenge is staying healthy since we're all getting sick more often now as he's exposed to other kids. Luckily, my wife and I haven't been sick at the same time yet. We'll finally introduce some screen time to him after his second birthday, which should help keep him occupied during trips.

7) Spend $1,500 more a month on life. We have frugality disease. We are spending less today than we were in our late 20s, despite having a much higher income and net worth. Our estate planning lawyer sessions really made us realize we will likely die with too much.

I've been slowly spending more money on things that may improve our lives. For example, the $4,000 large jet tub I bought in 2014 has come in handy for family bath time now. The $15,000 I spent on the outdoor hot tub in 1H2017 was one of the best purchases ever. Further, I have no regrets paying $58,000 cash for a used family car in December 2016 either. Baby steps on the road to lifestyle inflation!

We will allocate the extra $1,500 in spending towards more babysitting help, more massages, bi-monthly house cleaning, and quarterly gardening. We will purchase at least economy plus tickets for all our parents to come visit. Further, if we take our first flight as a family, we will purchase economy plus tickets as well.

We are also going to regularly give to two charities all year. One will be to a center for foster kids and abused youth. Another will be for children with visual impairments. I also like supporting public park tennis initiatives.

Related: Practice Taking Profits To Pay For A Better Life

8) Pay off $200,000 of mortgage debt. Paying off my SF rental condo in 2015 felt wonderful. I don't care whether it goes up or down in value because I truly plan to own it forever. Selling my SF rental house and paying off a $815,000 mortgage in the process also felt terrific. No matter how much more I could have made investing in risk assets, I've never regretted paying off debt.

Our ultimate goal is to be debt free by 2022, when our boy is ready for kindergarten. Paying down $200,000 a year in extra mortgage debt will accomplish this goal. In a bear market, it feels great to earn a guaranteed return. But it's also important to have lots of liquidity to take advantage of opportunities as well.

9) Aggressively search for a larger house. I dodged a canon in 2018 by not buying a larger house for more money. I wrote two offers for San Francisco homes that both got rejected. I was seriously going to try and buy this one expensive SF house in a great neighborhood, but by the time I was going to put in an offer, they had accepted another offer on November 1 for asking. If I had bought the house I'd be feeling nervous today since the stock market corrected by 20% soon after. It's not unreasonable to assume to house is now worth $200,000 (4.5%) less today.

Meanwhile, the seller of the house in Honolulu I've been eyeing since 2016 gave up trying to find a buyer in 4Q2018 and rented out the house from Oct – January to short-term tenants. The original asking price was $4.7M in 2016. Today, I think there's a good chance they will accept $3.5M – $3.7M because they finally dropped the ask down to $3.98M.

I want a bigger house in SF so my parents, in-laws and sister can come visit for a longer period of time. One more bathroom and 500 sqft more of space would be ideal. However, if I move to Honolulu, I won't need a bigger house since my parents have their own house.

I anticipate there will be many more deals in 2019 given inventory will likely be up 50% – 150% in San Francisco and Honolulu. I suspect the IPOs of Uber, Lyft and others will put a -10% floor on SF prices.

10) Be a voice for at least 50% of the population. Due to the high cost of living, there are very few personal finance bloggers who live in an expensive coastal city. This makes rational sense, especially if you are a FIRE blogger. But a full 50% of the national population lives in expensive coastal cities and other big cities around the country that face slightly different challenges. Same for many big city residents around the world e.g. London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai, etc. Therefore, I have an opportunity to establish Financial Samurai as a go-to resource for big-city audiences.

It's going to be fun tackling topics such as: private grade school tuition, the feasibility of retiring early with a family in a HCOL area, forsaking wealth and prestige, the dangers of creating multi-generational wealth, featuring diverse cultural backgrounds, and more. My goal is to convince big media to provide a more diverse perspective on financial independence since not everybody can or wants to move to a low cost area of the country.

11) Be more forgiving of myself. No matter what project I undertake, I always run through the finish line. Financial Samurai's finish line is July 1, 2019 after I made a promise in 2009 to publish 3X a week for 10 years. After that, who knows the future.

The funny thing about this finish line is that it is completely arbitrary. There is absolutely no need to put pressure on myself to produce so much content, especially if I'm having a rough week or sick. Financial Samurai surpassed my expectations long ago. Therefore, I'm going to give myself four weeks where I'll just publish one post plus I'll take it easy the entire month of June, when traffic is slowest.

By giving myself a break, I hope to sleep in more regularly until 6am. For the majority of 2018, I was naturally waking up by 5am after going to bed around 11pm. But during 4Q2018 and after daylight savings, I started naturally waking up as early as 3:30am to get my writing done before my wife and son woke. This crazy early time must have been due to increased anxiety from the stock market collapse.

With more sleep and less stress, I hope to improve my overall mental health and happiness. My desire to constantly grind stems from mistakes made in high school, plenty more rejections as an adult, and an indoctrination since I was a kid that I need to try harder as a minority to get ahead in America. I know I have a really good thing going now, so I don't want to take my good fortune for granted.

12) Celebrate big and small wins. To make the hustle more worthwhile, we will celebrate all our achievements as parents, writers, and entrepreneurs. A celebration can be as small as opening a nice bottle of wine. These celebrations will also help us fulfill our goal of spending more.

Every evening I will highlight something specific I appreciate about my wife so she always feels recognized and loved. She is an incredible full-time mom who also launched the FS Forum, finalized our revocable living trust, registered How To Engineer Your Layoff and Cutie Baby with the Library Of Congress, and is responsible for all ongoing business accounting. It's clear I haven't done a good enough job appreciating her efforts over the years, which is why I'm committed to do more for her in 2019 and beyond.

Steady As She Goes

If we can grow our net worth by just 5%, I'll be happy. I'm willing to forego upside investment potential to help ensure our net worth goes up in 2019. Despite our public investments accounting for only about 30% of our net worth, it gave me the most stress in 2018. This will change.

I still have hope the Fed will slow down its rate hikes. If they do, I'm confident the economy will chug along at 2% – 2.5% GDP growth and not enter into a recession. However, there are no exciting positive catalysts on the horizon except for a trade agreement with China by end of 1Q. 2019 will likely be another volatile year.

The last two years working on FS and being a SAHD has worn me out. Given we save most of our after-tax business income by living off our passive income, I'm excited to live it up more in 2019 and use my “vacation credits” to take it easier.

If you have any tips on how to smartly inflate your lifestyle without feeling guilty, I'd love to hear them. I also want to learn how to inhale the roses more often without feeling the need to always be productive.

What are some of your goals for 2019? How do you see the stock market and economy unfolding?

The post Financial Samurai 2019 Economic Outlook And Personal Goals appeared first on Financial Samurai.

[zeroviraluniverse-blog]

Former Dixie State QB Malik Watson is on the move and looking up

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Former Dixie State QB Malik Watson is on the move and looking up

Dixie State University QB Malik Watson dropping back to pass(Photo: Dixie State University)

Former Dixie State University quarterback Malik Watson is used to moving around.

Whether in the pocket surrounded by teammates or from city to city, Watson has become very familiar with constant movement.

Now he’s prepping for the biggest move in his life: A pro day and potential shot at an NFL roster.

Growing up, Watson noted that his biggest football influences were his father and uncle, both of whom played in college.

Watson’s father, Greig, played college football at North Dakota and his uncle, Marlin Brown, was a former defensive end for Washington State University from 1987 to 1989.

“My dad always loved football and my uncle was always the coolest cat in the world to me.” said Watson. “When I was growing up, he was a rapper and a football player at the same time so I always wanted to be like him.”

Watson also became very fond of former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Steve Young and was a huge 49ers fan from a young age. 

“I don’t play like him to be honest,” Watson said. “but I always wanted to be as great as him. He just made the game so fun to watch.”

Growing up, Malik Watson was a huge fan of the San Francisco 49ers and their quarterback, Steve Young (Photo: Malik Watson)

Watson played football throughout his middle school years and, in paying homage to Young, wore no. 8 and ran the quarterback position for a 10-2 Delta Patriots youth football team in his eighth grade year. 

Watson played one year at Heritage High School in Brentwood, CA. before transferring to Pittsburg High School in Pittsburg, Calif. and it was there that he learned to craft his game. 

In his time with the Pirates, Watson tallied over 3,000 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in his final two years at Pittsburg High and was named first team All-Bay Valley Athletic League in his senior season.

Not only was Watson an excellent football player, he lettered three times in baseball in high school as well.

He ended his high school football career playing in the 2011 Cal State All-Star game against some of the best prospects in the state.

After viewing Watson at a football camp he was attending that summer, Watson’s future head coach at Contra Costa, Alonzo Carter, noticed Watson stood out among the players there.

“He was physically and athletically the best quarterback there at the camp,” Carter said. “I was just really impressed with his size, arm, and poise. Not only could he throw it, but he was very poised and mature.”

Watson made the decision to continue his career and play for Carter at Contra Costa College.

As a freshman, Watson made appearances in seven games and completed 58 percent of his passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns.

Malik Watson at Contra Costa College in 2012 (Photo: Contra Costa College)

Sophomore year was when Watson made the jump from good to great prospect.

Watson made appearances in 11 games for the Comets, throwing for over 2,700 yards on the season and 18 touchdowns.

His performance that season earned him first team All-Bay Valley Conference honors and gave a tremendous boost to his football resume.

Because of his excellent sophomore season, Watson continued the cycle of movement and was able transfer to NCAA Division I school San Jose State University in 2014.

After spending the 2014 season as a redshirt, Watson made appearances in just three games as a Spartan in the 2015 season.

Malik Watson directing the San Jose State offense during a game vs. Oregon State on Sept. 19th, 2015 (Photo: Malik Watson)

The year was not without some success though, as Watson graduated with a bachelors degree from San Jose State in May 2016.

Despite Watson’s rise academically and in the football world, he hit a rough patch in August of 2016 and had to spend a month homeless and sleeping in his car on the streets of San Jose.

Luckily enough, Watson picked up a job and a cheap apartment before deciding to use his senior year of eligibility to play in Utah at Dixie State.

Before the 2016 season, Watson dealt with an initial injury that healed quickly but the timing of the injury caused him to miss the season while being fully healthy.

Watson had only a brief stint with Dixie State next year in 2017, playing in just seven games before missing the rest of the season with an injury.

Dixie State QB Malik Watson carries the ball during a game against Central Washington on Sept. 23, 2017 (Photo: Malik Watson)

“I bounced back and was able to come to Dixie State and make a name for myself in Utah a little bit,” Watson said. “I wish I could’ve played the whole season so I could’ve made more of a mark, but it was still a blessing nonetheless.”

Even with a bumpy final few years, Watson was still able to secure a spot in the College Gridiron Showcase in Dallas, Texas back in January.

NFL scouts, players, personnel and football experts alike converged on Dallas to evaluate the talent over the five days at the event.

The showcase, reserved for some of the top college senior prospects in the country, was the turning point for Watson.

“I was fortunate enough to get quite a bit of looks at me,” Watson said. “I went in with zero looks from professional teams to leaving there with about nine looks so it was definitely a blessing to be there and be able to compete with the best.”

Watson put the ‘show’ in showcase during the five days, garnering extensive talks with the Oakland Raiders and Dallas Cowboys as well as more formal conversations with the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers and a few CFL teams.

Watson was also afforded the opportunity in January to head down to Miami to train at Bommarito Performance Center, one of the top athletic training facilities in the country.

NFL quarterbacks such as Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning have trained at Bommarito, along with dozens of other star athletes from across all four major American sports.

Watson is training specifically with quarterback coach Ken Mastrole, who has worked personally with NFL quarterbacks such as Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater.

This is all in preparation for Watson’s big pro day in late March, where he will be personally evaluated by NFL scouts looking to draft talent to their rosters for the next NFL season.

Malik Watson greets a fan after a game during his time at San Jose State. (Photo: Malik Watson)

“My love for the game goes so deep because I’ve had so much invested in it my whole life,” said Watson. “The risk and reward that comes with football is so high and the losses teach you so much. It’s a learning experience every time you step out on the field.”

Malik Watson knows about both risk and reward because he has lived it. He has both proved his mettle on the streets and trained in some of America’s most prestigious facilities.

Being on the move and taking advantage of opportunity is what Watson has done best throughout both his life and football career and he has high hopes that it will continue into the future.

“I just want to be the best possible quarterback, teammate, person, and man I can be as I keep growing, maturing, and getting better,” said Watson. “I will never give up or give in to anyone or anything.”

He never has.

[silviajburke]

It’s Not Just Amazon. Changing Consumers are Killing Retail.

This post It’s Not Just Amazon. Changing Consumers are Killing Retail. appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Retail stocks have been annihilated recently, despite the economy eking out growth. The fundamentals of the retail business look horrible: Sales are stagnating and profitability is getting worse with every passing quarter.

Jeff Bezos and Amazon get most of the credit, but this credit is misplaced. Today, online sales represent only 8.5 percent of total retail sales. Amazon, at $80 billion in sales, accounts only for 1.5 percent of total U.S. retail sales, which at the end of 2016 were around $5.5 trillion. Though it is human nature to look for the simplest explanation, in truth, the confluence of a half-dozen unrelated developments is responsible for weak retail sales.

Our consumption needs and preferences have changed significantly. Ten years ago we spent a pittance on cellphones. Today Apple sells roughly $100 billion worth of i-goods in the U.S., and about two-thirds of those sales are iPhones. Apple’s U.S. market share is about 44 percent, thus the total smart mobile phone market in the U.S. is $150 billion a year. Add spending on smartphone accessories (cases, cables, glass protectors, etc.) and we are probably looking at $200 billion total spending a year on smartphones and accessories.

Ten years ago (before the introduction of the iPhone) smartphone sales were close to zero. Nokia was the king of dumb phones, with sales in the U.S. in 2006 of $4 billion. The total dumb cellphone handset market in the U.S. in 2006 was probably closer to $10 billion.

Consumer income has not changed much since 2006, thus over the last 10 years $190 billion in consumer spending was diverted toward mobile phones.

It gets more interesting. In 2006 a cellphone was a luxury only affordable by adults, but today 7-year-olds have iPhones. Our phone bill per household more than doubled over the last decade. Not to bore you with too many data points, but Verizon’s wireless’s revenue in 2006 was $38 billion. Fast-forward 10 years and it is $89 billion — a $51 billion increase. Verizon’s market share is about 30 percent, thus the total spending increase on wireless services is close to $150 billion.

Between phones and their services, this is $340 billion that will not be spent on T-shirts and shoes.

But we are not done. The combination of mid-single-digit health-care inflation and the proliferation of high-deductible plans has increased consumer direct health-care costs and further chipped away at our discretionary dollars. Health-care spending in the U.S. is $3.3 trillion, and just 3 percent of that figure is almost $100 billion.

Then there are soft, hard-to-quantify factors. Millennials and millennial-want-to-be generations (speaking for myself here) don’t really care about clothes as much as we may have 10 years ago. After all, our high-tech billionaires wear hoodies and flip-flops to work. Lack of fashion sense did not hinder their success, so why should the rest of us care about the dress code?

In the ’90s casual Fridays were a big deal – yippee, we could wear jeans to work! Fast-forward 20 years, and every day is casual. Suits? They are worn to job interviews or to impress old-fashioned clients. Consumer habits have slowly changed, and we now put less value on clothes (and thus spend less money on them) and more value on having the latest iThing.

All this brings us to a hard and sad reality: The U.S. is over-retailed. We simply have too many stores. Americans have four or five times more square footage per capita than other developed countries. This bloated square footage was created for a different consumer, the one who in in the ’90s and ’00s was borrowing money against her house and spending it at her local shopping mall.

Today’s post-Great Recession consumer is deleveraging, paying off her debt, spending money on new necessities such as mobile phones, and paying more for the old ones such as health care.

Yes, Amazon and online sales do matter. Ten years ago only 2.5 percent of retail sales took place online, and today that number is 8.5 percent – about a $300 billion change. Some of these online sales were captured by brick-and-mortar online sales, some by e-commerce giants like Amazon, and some by brands selling directly to consumers.

But as you can see, online sales are just one piece of a very complex retail puzzle. All the aforementioned factors combined explain why, when gasoline prices declined by almost 50 percent (gifting consumers hundreds of dollars of discretionary spending a month), retailers’ profitability and consumer spending did not flinch – those savings were more than absorbed by other expenses.

Understanding that online sales (when we say this we really mean Amazon) are not the only culprit responsible for horrible retail numbers is crucial in the analysis of retail stocks. If you are only solving “who can fight back the best against Amazon?” you are only solving for one variable in a multivariable problem: – Consumers’ habits have changed; the U.S. is over-retailed; and consumer spending is being diverted to different parts of the economy.

As value investors we are naturally attracted to hated sectors. However, we demand a much greater margin of safety from retail stocks, because estimating their future cash flows (and thus fair value) is becoming increasingly difficult. Warren Buffett has said that you want to own a business that can be run by an idiot, because one day it will be. A successful retail business in today’s world cannot be run by by an idiot. It requires Bezos-like qualities: being totally consumer-focused, taking risks, thinking long term.

Looking for stocks that will triple tomorrow? They’re the ones that are hated today.  Here are a few case studies to convince you.

Fantastic Fantastique

Louis-Hector Berlioz (1803-1869) was not a child prodigy; at age 12 he was a latecomer to music (by that age Mozart had already completed his first performance tour). His father discouraged him from studying piano, so he did not. His parents wanted him to be a doctor (every Jewish mother wants her son to be a doctor), and Berlioz was sent to Paris to study medicine.

At the age of 23, despite his parents’ objections, he formally abandoned the study of medicine and focused solely on music.  Berlioz never received classical musical training, and thus it was easy for him to break the rules of music composition since he didn’t know them.

It’s hard to say whether Berlioz’s musical adventure would have amounted to much if he hadn’t fallen in love. When he was 27 he attended a performance of Hamlet. There he saw her: Harriet Smithson, Irish Shakespearean actress. He was fatally smitten. He wrote her love letters, but his love went unrequited. He rented an apartment across the street from her and then wrote her the ultimate love letter: Symphony Fantastique.

Fantastique was written in the pain of unreturned love. Berlioz wrote:

Oh, if only I did not suffer so much!… So many musical ideas are seething within me.… Now that I have broken the chains of routine, I see an immense territory stretching before me, which academic rules forbade me to enter.

In another letter he wrote:

Sometimes I can scarcely endure this mental or physical pain (I can’t separate the two) … I see that wide horizon and the sun, and I suffer so much, so much, that if I did not take a grip of myself, I should shout and roll on the ground. I have found only one way of completely satisfying this immense appetite for emotion, and this is music.

As a side note, the topic of pain and creativity is very dear to me. I strongly believe most creativity in the world is unleashed by pain. If it was not for pain we would not have Rachmaninoff’s Piano Concerto No. 2, which he wrote after suffering a three-year depression from the failure of his first symphony. Or think about this: Beethoven was deaf the last ten years of his life, and this is when he composed his best work.

Back to Berlioz. Either Berlioz could not take the pain or he needed additional stimulants to access his newfound creativity; in any case, he consumed a lot of opium in the course of writing Fantastique. Fantastique premiered to incredible success in 1830 and turned Berlioz into a huge star. Harriett was unfortunately not at the premier and only heard the symphony two years later. By then Berlioz is famous, and she recognizes his genius. They get married and… are unhappy and separate.

Nevertheless, we should all thank Harriet for this incredible masterpiece.

Here is how Leonard Bernstein summarized this symphony: “Berlioz tells it like it is. You take a trip, you wind up screaming at your own funeral.”

Final point. Fantastique is a five-movement program symphony. (Program music means that the symphony follows written program notes; think of them as silent opera.) It’s the love story of Berlioz’s unrequited love for Harriet – on psychedelics.

There is a glittering ball, a lonely idyll in the countryside, and other visions induced by opium. (I kid you not; here is what Berlioz wrote in his program notes: “The Artist, knowing beyond all doubt that his love is not returned, poisons himself with opium. The narcotic plunges him into sleep, accompanied by the most horrible visions.”)

The symphony continues with the murder of the artist’s love interest, the execution of the artist after a stirring march to the gallows, the artist’s funeral, and the artist’s love interest’s reappearance as a witch).

Regards, Vitaliy N. Katsenelson for Contrarian Edge

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson is chief investment officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of “Active Value Investing” (Wiley) and “The Little Book of Sideways Markets” (Wiley). This article first appeared on Katsenelson’s Contrarian Edge blog.

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The post It’s Not Just Amazon. Changing Consumers are Killing Retail. appeared first on Daily Reckoning.