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racingtoaredlight · 4 years ago

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RTARL’s 2020 NFL Season Week 17 Extravapalooza

Well, here we are at the end of the most unique NFL season in memory. Was it the smartest idea in the world to stage an entire professional football season in the midst of a rampaging viral pandemic? No, it really wasn’t. But, somehow, the NFL managed to make it through the year without any outright disasters (sorry Broncos, having to start a practice squad WR at QB doesn’t really count), and they did it through the tried and true combination of blind luck and pure willful ignorance. Yay, I guess? I’m not going to pretend that I didn’t appreciate having games to watch, but the whole enterprise was downright impressive in its blatant disregard for common sense and social responsibility. That’s why it’s America’s game!

There’s still a fair amount of playoff-positioning to hash out this week, which always lends a nice bit of urgency to some of the proceedings. I’m far too lazy to go into those particular weeds myself, so I’ll just link you to someone else’s work if you want to study up on the various scenarios in play.

My picks are in BOLD, and the lines come to us courtesy of our friends at Vegas Insider. I use the “VI Consensus” line, which is the line that occurs most frequently across Vegas Insider’s list of sportsbooks. Your sportsbook of choice may offer a different number, and if you’d like my opinion on said number A) you are insane, and B) leave a comment below and I’ll try to answer at some point before things kickoff today.

EARLY GAMES

Baltimore Ravens (-14) at Cincinnati Bengals

If the Ravens win, they’re in the playoffs. The Bengals don’t have the horses to offer much resistance against a supremely motivated Ravens team. I will say that the most entertaining turn of events for someone with no dog in the fight would be for Baltimore to somehow lose this game, for the Browns to win, and for Ravens fans to have to sweat the result of the Colts/Jags game to see if they make the playoffs. Friend of the blog Fryan Turd would likely suffer a half-dozen heart attacks in this scenario.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2)

I have no idea how important clinching the #2 seed in the AFC is to Buffalo, and if it’s not a big deal to them they may rest some guys for all or some of this game. The Dolphins will remain feisty to the very end, of that I’m certain.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-9)

The Steelers are sitting a whole bunch of guys and the Browns are in the playoffs with a win. I will say that losing this game to Mason Rudolph and subsequently missing the postseason would be an incredibly Brownsy thing to do.

Minnesota Vikings (-4) at Detroit Lions

Despite having nothing to play for and no reason to risk further punishment, Matthew Stafford is suiting up for this one. Dare I say that Stafford is...A GAMER? I do dare say it. I hope he whips ass and the Lions win in what could be his last home game in Detroit. I would sacrifice one of my siblings to get Stafford onto the Patriots this offseason, and also to get a larger share of my family estate.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3)

Oh man, this is not going to be a fun game to watch AT ALL. Sullen Bill Belichick, Broken Down Cam Newton, Traumatized Sam Darnold, Dead Man Walking Adam Gase--this game has way too many depressing ingredients, to say nothing of the very-likely-to-be atrocious quality of play. Let’s just move on.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at New York Giants

This is essentially a playoff game, as each of these teams needs to win (and for Washington to lose) in order to clinch the shittiest division of all time. I’m taking Dallas here because they’ve been rolling in recent weeks and Daniel Jones isn’t close to 100% healthy, but what I want most is for the Giants to win, the Football Team to lose, and for us to get the hilarious spectacle of a 6-10 playoff team.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)

I’ve ridden with the Falcons all season, why stop now?

[looks at season record]

Okay, that might be a good reason to stop. BUT I AIN’T GONNA!

Hey, do you think Matt Ryan could end up on New England? He went to Boston College, right? What have I become, coveting other teams’ used goods? This is no way to live.

LATE GAMES

Green Bay Packers (-4) at Chicago Bears

I’m greatly enjoying the Trubiskaissance. The Bears making the playoffs would make for some tremendous restlessness and conflicting emotions among Bears fans, as a strong showing would likely mean that Mitchell and Matt Nagy will run it back next season. This would entertain me as a man who isn’t a Bears fan.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

I truly have no opinions or thoughts on this particular contest. Oh wait, here’s one: fuck the Raiders for ruining so many of my picks. Here’s another: Do you think New England could trade for Derek Carr? HELP.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14)

The Jags are quite possibly the most ready-to-start-their-vacation team in the league, and the Colts need to win this game to make the postseason. I’m bummed about how things turned out for my man Gardner Minshew this season in Jacksonville. I hope he’s able to continue his career with a franchise who appreciates his comedic potential more fully. You know who would love him? Famous mirth-merchant William Belichick.

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Tremendous opportunity for Justin Herbert to pad his already fantastic rookie-year numbers against the K.C. JV team. The thing that makes me the most nervous about this pick is the possibility that Chargers Head Coach Anthony Lynn knows that this is his last game, and as a result will make sure to unveil his most breathtaking piece of clock-mismanagement performance art yet.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

I can’t in good conscience get behind a team that intends to start John Wolford at QB, no matter how awesome their defense is. Then again, maybe if Sean McVay basically controls his movements Ratatouille-style the way he does with Jared Goff, he’ll be okay. If Arizona loses and misses the playoffs, Coach Handsome might experience the quickest progression of “This Guy Has No Idea What He’s Doing” to “This Guy Is A Genius Who Is Changing the Way Football Is Played” and back to “This Guy Is a Dipshit” of any coach I can remember.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks continued there whole “now the defense is good, but the offense is kind of blah” thing last week in a 20-9 win over the Rams, and I see no reason to think things will change. The Niners finally got All-Pro TE George Kittle back from injury, but then immediately lost studly rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk. The injury gods have really had it in for them this season. Despite the brutal injury luck, San Fran has remained competitive all season, and I say they keep this one within a TD.

New Orleans Saints (-6) at Carolina Panthers

The Saints won’t have RBs Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Dwayne Washington, or their fullback Michael Burton. They’ll also be without WR Michael Thomas once again. If I were Saints Head Coach Sean Payton, I’d start Taysom Hill at QB for this game so that he can use his legs to augment the severely diminished run-game, and also to give Drew Brees’ ribs more time to heal. I’d also be an insufferable dickhead. Well, more of one. Okay, I’d be the same, I’d just be addicted to pain pills. More addicted, I mean. I’m Sean Payton.

Tennessee Titans (-7) at Houston Texans

DeShaun Watson has been absurdly good this season, despite the total shitshow around him. He leads the league in Yards Per Attempt while also being third in the league in Completion Percentage at 70.1%. He’s not dinking and dunking his way to his eye-popping numbers. You’d think having a franchise QB in place would make this a primo job opening for potential head coaching candidates, but between the lack of high-end future draft picks and general ownership/executive ineptitude, it’s gotta give a desirable candidate pause. Yikes. Clearly, Houston should trade DeShaun Watson to New England.

SNF: Washington Football Team (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have nothing to play for and a bunch of key players are skipping tonight’s game. Among them are TE Dallas Goedert and RB Miles Sanders, which is going to make things extra tough for QB Jalen Hurts against Washington’s exceptionally nasty defense. The Football Team also has major injury questions, as QB Alex Smith, RB Antonio Gibson, and WR Terry McLaurin are all listed as Questionable. As of this writing, it looks like all three of them are going to play, but I have no clue how effective they’ll be. All of this uncertainty does not make for confident betting, imo.

Last Week’s Record: 4-7-1

Season Record: 99-112-8

#Sports!#Football #NFL #Gambling

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junker-town · 5 years ago

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7 things every fan needs to know about the 2020 NFL Draft

Photo by: Visions of America/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Here’s our draft guide for NFL fans who don’t watch an outrageous amount of college football.

Not everyone is a fan of both college football and the NFL. Even if you are, it’s tough to follow everything.

Those lucky enough to have the time for both sports can still go into the NFL Draft not knowing what to expect. Nobody can watch every player, after all.

So, whether you need a simple refresher or a crash course about this year’s draft, I’m here to help. These are the seven things you need to know about the 2020 NFL Draft:

1. It’s in Las Vegas!

The Raiders are new residents of Nevada after relocating from Oakland. Their unofficial welcome party is the 2020 NFL Draft, which will be held on the Las Vegas Strip.

The main stage where new draft picks will hug Roger Goodell and hold up a jersey with their name on it will be next to Caesars Forum. The red carpet where soon-to-be draftees will show off clean suits and fancy shoes will be IN THE DANG BELLAGIO FOUNTAIN!

The stage for the 2020 NFL Draft in Las Vegas will be on the water at the Fountains of Bellagio. The players will be transported to the stage by boat. pic.twitter.com/8sVl8p2ZBx

— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) January 21, 2020

The NFL Draft usually has a fair share of ridiculousness. There have been animals announcing picks (much to now-Raiders general manager Mike Mayock’s frustration) and former NFL players trolling rival fans. That’s especially the case now that the league moves the draft from city to city and each host gets a chance to put its stamp on the event.

Before stopping off in Las Vegas, the draft was held in Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Nashville. Next year, it’ll be Cleveland.

2. Here are the important draft dates

In the months prior to draft night, every prospect will be poked, prodded, interviewed, and tested by all 32 teams.

That process already got started for the players who participated in the Senior Bowl, NFLPA Bowl, East-West Shrine Bowl, or another college football all-star game. For most everyone else, it will start at the NFL Combine.

A total of 337 players were invited to Indianapolis for this year’s combine. It’ll begin Feb. 23 when the quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends check in, although drills won’t start until a few days later. The full NFL Combine schedule can be seen here, but what most fans care about is the on-field workouts. These are the dates for each position group:

Thursday, Feb. 27: Quarterbacks, receivers, tight ends

Friday, Feb. 28: Running backs, offensive linemen, special teamers

Saturday, Feb. 29: Defensive linemen, linebackers

Sunday, March 1: Defensive backs

After that, players will hold private workouts with teams and perform at pro days throughout March and into early April.

The grand finale will be the 2020 NFL Draft, a three-day event at the end of April:

Thursday, April 23: Round 1

Friday, April 24: Rounds 2-3

Saturday, April 25: Rounds 4-7

It probably wouldn’t hurt to pay some attention to free agency, which begins March 18, either. Team needs and draft priorities can change when veterans land on new teams.

3. The top two picks may already be decided

The Cincinnati Bengals stumbled their way into a 2-14 record and decided right around Halloween that the Andy Dalton era was over. They wound up with the No. 1 pick in the draft, and that’s perfect because LSU quarterback Joe Burrow couldn’t be a better fit.

Burrow played high school football in The Plains, Ohio, less than a three-hour drive from Cincinnati. After transferring from Ohio State to LSU, Burrow put together arguably the best college football season ever when he led the Tigers to a national championship.

It seems like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be the Bengals’ pick at No. 1 overall.

The second pick looks just as inevitable with Washington and Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young. The team took quarterback Dwayne Haskins in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft and will presumably select the top non-quarterback of the class.

Young is that player by a significant margin after recording 16.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss during the 2019 season. He was the only Heisman Trophy finalist who didn’t play quarterback. It’d be a shock if Washington didn’t want to add Young to a defense that was 27th in yards and points allowed.

So expect to see mock draft after mock draft with Burrow and Young going 1-2. Dan Kadar is already getting bored.

4. Burrow’s not the only promising quarterback in the class

For a long time, Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the clear favorite to be the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. So much so that when the Dolphins stripped their roster bare for draft picks and cap space, it was called the “Tank for Tua” strategy.

But things changed. Burrow couldn’t be stopped and Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending hip injury in November.

While Tagovailoa won’t be the first off the board, it doesn’t mean he’ll have to wait long to hear his name called. He’s still expected to be a top-five pick, especially with reports that his recovery from hip surgery is going well. Miami might even land Tagovailoa, despite somehow winning five games.

Those two are just the tip of the quarterback iceberg, though. There’s also:

Justin Herbert (Oregon): He’s a four-year starter who stands 6’6 and has a Carson Wentz-esque skillset. He was the MVP at the Senior Bowl in January and could be the Chargers’ ideal replacement for Philip Rivers.

Jordan Love (Utah State): He’s athletic, has a cannon for an arm, and isn’t afraid to be creative. Calling him the next Patrick Mahomes is awfully optimistic, but Love has (understandably) enjoyed that comparison. “We’ve both got strong arms,” Love told the Indy Star. “He obviously makes ridiculous throws, off-schedule, stuff like that. It’s something I’ve seen and tried to model my game after.”

Jake Fromm (Georgia): In three years at Georgia, Fromm led the team to the Rose Bowl once, the Sugar Bowl twice, and the national championship game in January 2018. According to ESPN’s Mel Kiper, “the easiest comp in this draft is Jake Fromm to Andy Dalton.”

Jacob Eason (Washington): A knee injury cleared the way for Fromm to take Eason’s job at Georgia. Eason then transferred to Washington and started one season before declaring for the draft. He’s 6’6 with ridiculous arm strength, but has limited experience and struggled against pressure in the latter half of the 2019 season.

All four of those players have a shot at joining Burrow as first-round picks in April.

5. The draft class is loaded at wide receiver

There were two receivers taken in the first round of each of the last two drafts. None of them were top-20 picks.

In 2019, it was Marquise Brown (Ravens) and N’Keal Harry (Patriots) toward the end of the first night. And in 2018, D.J. Moore (Panthers) and Calvin Ridley (Falcons) were late first-round selections.

The 2020 NFL Draft should be much different for receivers.

Kadar’s latest mock draft has six receivers going in the first round: Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III, Colorado’s Laviska Shenault, Clemson’s Tee Higgins, and LSU’s Justin Jefferson.

There’s also TCU’s Jalen Reagor and Penn State’s K.J. Hamler, who have been in the first round of Kadar’s earlier mocks. Arizona State receiver Brandon Aiyuk landed No. 33 overall in a two-round mock.

All that talent at the top will push quality receivers into the middle rounds. It’s a good year for teams that want to jumpstart their passing games in the draft.

6. It’s a mediocre draft for tight ends and running backs

This class has a group of tight ends who will probably be second-day selections — like Cole Kmet of Notre Dame and Hunter Bryant of Washington — but it’d be surprising if any landed in the first round.

There’s a better chance at a running back going early, even if there won’t be any Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, or Ezekiel Elliott in the top five. While Georgia’s D’Andre Swift and Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins are the best at the position, neither was in Kadar’s most recent mock. One or both could still catch the eye of a team picking in the back half of the first round, however.

7. The Dolphins are the draft capital kings

Selling off most of the quality players on the roster was all part of the Dolphins’ tanking plan. They still managed to win five games, and now they enter the offseason with the most cap space in the NFL and a haul of draft picks.

Miami owns the Nos. 5, 18, and 26 picks in the first round, as well as the Nos. 39 and 56 picks in the second round.

The Raiders and Jaguars are the other two teams with multiple first-rounders, thanks to trades that moved Khalil Mack and Jalen Ramsey, respectively.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Texans and Rams are the only teams without a top-50 pick. The 49ers still own their first-rounder, but they don’t have another selection until the fifth round.

Compensatory picks will be announced soon, which probably won’t help the 49ers much. It should be a boon to the Patriots’ stockpile of picks, though.

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junker-town · 5 years ago

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The Steelers, somehow, are in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot

Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Despite all the setbacks, Pittsburgh can control its own destiny. Will the Steelers get it right this time?

The Pittsburgh Steelers improved to 7-5 on Sunday following a pivotal 20-13 win over the Cleveland Browns. With the victory, the Steelers are in a good position after Week 13. They’re currently projected to be the sixth seed in the AFC, and with a couple more wins, the Steelers can lock down a playoff spot

That’s been quite the turnaround from where they were two months ago. The season got off to a rocky start, as Pittsburgh went 2-4 before heading into its bye week.

But what’s more impressive is how Pittsburgh has been able to win — both in back-to-back weeks and throughout the season — given its circumstances. Most of the credit for that should go to head coach Mike Tomlin, who’s managed to keep his team focused and motivated despite a lot of ups and downs.

It’s been an eventful season for the Steelers, to say the least.

In the offseason, the Steelers cut ties with two of their best offensive players, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Since the season started, Pittsburgh has had its fair share of setbacks. The first big blow came during Week 2, when franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger went down with a season-ending elbow injury.

Roethlisberger’s backup, second-year quarterback Mason Rudolph, hadn’t played in the regular season before his Week 2 debut. Rudolph then missed the Steelers’ Week 6 game against the Chargers, but his backup, undrafted free agent signee Devlin Hodges (who you’ll be hearing about again), was able to get a 24-17 win in place of Rudolph.

Since that game, the Steelers have lost the following players due to either injury or suspension:

starting defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt, placed on injured reserve in Week 7

starting running back James Conner, missed four of the last five games with a shoulder injury

starting wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster, injured since a Week 11 loss to the Browns

starting center Maurkice Pouncey, suspended two games during Weeks 12 and 13 for involvement in on-field fight vs. the Browns

The Steelers’ only loss in their last seven games came to the Browns on Nov. 14. Although that game was overshadowed by the fight between Rudolph and Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, it also shined a light on what wasn’t working for them: Rudolph at QB.

The Steelers switching from Rudolph to Hodges has given the offense more of a pulse.

The Steelers were winning games in spite of, not because of R,udolph. In his last five starts, Rudolph threw seven picks and had another three fumbles.

Tomlin made the decision to bench Rudolph for Hodges during Pittsburgh’s game against the Bengals in Week 12. The Steelers came back to win and then Hodges was named the starter in the rematch with the Browns. Tomlin’s reasoning was simple, yet incredible:

Why Devlin Hodges? Tomlin: "He has not killed us."

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) November 26, 2019

In the last two games, Hodges has thrown for 330 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and has a passer rating of 102.3. These numbers aren’t extraordinary, but he’s led an offense dealing with a lot of injuries to some much-needed production — and he’s keeping the mistakes at a minimum. He’s now 2-0 as the starter, which is a rare feat even with Pittsburgh’s history of QBs:

.@DevlinHodges10 is only the 3rd @Steelers quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win each of his first 2 career starts. He joins Mike Kruczek in 1976 and Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.#CLEvsPIT | #HereWeGo

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 1, 2019

Hodges has also shown good chemistry with receiver James Washington, which has helped the second-year receiver finally put it all together.

With Rudolph, Washington’s best game was against the Rams in Week 10, when he had six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. In the last two games with Hodges as his main quarterback, Washington has had 209 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets, including a career-high 111 yards against Cleveland Sunday. He already has 578 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the season — more than doubling his numbers as a rookie.

The Steelers are getting back to their defensive roots.

Pittsburgh’s defense is really the heart and soul of this team, and is a huge reason for its success in the second half of the season.

The unit is fifth in the league in yards per play allowed, seventh in passing defense, and seventh in scoring defense. It’s scored three touchdowns this season, too.

The defense’s efforts have been the driving force behind the Steelers’ close wins. Their last four wins have been decided by seven points or fewer. In Pittsburgh’s last three games, the Steelers are allowing just 4.3 points per game in the second half, a figure that’s second in the NFL.

Linebacker T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick have been bright spots in this unit. Watt leads the AFC with 12.5 sacks, and he’s at the top of the conference with 27 quarterback hits and five forced fumbles. Fitzpatrick, who the Steelers traded for in early September, has 54 total tackles and five interceptions, tied for the most in the NFL.

Despite the strong performances from Fitzpatrick and Watt, it’s been a group effort on defense. Without their staunch defense, the Steelers likely wouldn’t be in playoff conversation at all.

Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes remain alive, despite its slow start at the beginning of the season.

The Steelers will be looking to avoid the same letdown they suffered last December. At this time a year ago, Pittsburgh was 7-4-1, but the Steelers lost to the Raiders and Saints to finish 9-6-1 and get left out of the postseason.

Right now, the biggest threat to Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes is a surging Titans team. Tennessee has gone 5-1 over the last six weeks, and is also 7-5. The good news for the Steelers is that they currently hold the conference record tiebreaker by a game. The bad news is the Titans can make up that difference next week by beating the Raiders in an AFC matchup (the Steelers play an NFC opponent, the Cardinals).

It’s not just the Titans the Steelers have to fend off, either. The Colts and Raiders are close behind, too. Here’s a look at the current AFC playoff standings:

AFC

1. Ravens (10-2)

2. Patriots (10-2)

3. Texans (8-4)

4. Chiefs (8-4)

5. Bills (9-3)

6. Steelers (7-5)

In the hunt: Titans (7-5), Raiders (6-6), Colts (6-6), Browns (5-7)

The Steelers have games remaining against the Cardinals, Bills, Jets, and Ravens. While Pittsburgh probably won’t pass Baltimore in the AFC North, if it can win just two of those games, that would get the team to nine wins and might be enough for a wild card slot.

The Steelers have a much easier road than Tennessee, which has games remaining against the Raiders, Texans, Saints, and Texans again. The Colts and Raiders might be able to sneak in as well, though the Steelers have a 26-24 win over Indianapolis from Week 9 that could help them there.

The league’s divisions are pretty top-heavy this season, with four 10-2 teams in the playoff mix already. Pittsburgh might not be a complete enough team to create some chaos in the postseason, but then again, this year could be ripe for unpredictable results.

No matter what, the Steelers rallying to reach playoff contention after a 1-4 start was unexpected, and you have to tip your cap to Tomlin and his team for the resilience they’ve shown this season.

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junker-town · 7 years ago

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NFL Black Monday: What is it and what to expect when it comes in 2018

The NFL’s coaching carousel gets underway after Week 17 ends.

The NFL playoff race is red-hot this time of year, but for the teams that aren’t playing in January, there’s a different game going on. For fans of teams that won’t go to the playoffs, this is generally the time to start filling out draft boards and free agency wish lists. It’s also the time to look for new coaches once Black Monday passes.

Only one head coach has been fired midseason this year: The New York Giants canned Ben McAdoo, and by all accounts Marvin Lewis is on the way out with the Cincinnati Bengals. But plenty more will soon join them on Black Monday, the traditional firing day in the NFL.

What is Black Monday, and why is it called that?

It’s the day after the end of the regular season, when most bad teams fire their head coach and start searching for a new one. Of course, the name “Black Monday” is a bit of hyperbole, especially when compared to other days with a similar name. It’s a head coach looking for a new job, not the stock market crashing or customers rioting at retail stores the day after Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, the name stuck and has become something of a minor tradition in the NFL.

Black Monday, much like Christmas, seems to come earlier every year. Last season, we saw three head coach firings before the end of the season, when the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars dismissed Jeff Fisher, Rex Ryan, and Gus Bradley, respectively. In 2015, Joe Philbin, Ken Whisenhunt, and Chip Kelly all got their walking papers well before Week 17.

What are the usual circumstances for a Black Monday firing?

You can generally see the warning signs come a mile away — with more access than ever in the social media era, head coach firings rarely come as a legitimate surprise these days. An underachieving team is the main component, along with players actively quitting on their coach, media reports of him losing the locker room, and a general sense of malaise.

You saw this play out earlier in the season, when the Giants’ constant drama led to McAdoo being shown the door. For the most part, a team would rather wait out the season before firing its coach, so it takes a special recipe of disaster to remove him in the middle of the year.

Who are the top candidates to be fired on Black Monday this year?

The 2017 season has been surprisingly light on midseason firings, but Black Monday could be a bumper crop with lots of teams that didn’t meet expectations and obvious lame ducks strewn across the league. Let’s take a look at the men on the hot seat.

Hottest of hot seats

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts — Andrew Luck didn’t play a single down this season, but even with that mulligan, 2017 exposed Pagano as a man with no plan and no ideas. A lot of blame does lie with former GM Ryan Grigson for building such a poor roster, but despite knowing he probably wouldn’t have Luck at all, it’s shocking how unprepared Pagano’s team looked every week. The Colts blew seven halftime leads this year, which just shouldn’t happen with any coaching staff that knows how to close out games.

Pagano has had a genuinely inspiring comeback from cancer, but it’s clear he just isn’t cut out for this job.

John Fox, Chicago Bears — Losing double-digit games with a rookie quarterback is one thing, but it feels like Fox purposely tries to put the least watchable team possible on the field every week. After three years, it’s pretty obvious that this is the team Fox wants, and it’s not a team that can win games in today’s NFL. Maybe the Bears can find a coach who’s interested in using Mitchell Trubisky, who we still don’t know is actually good or not.

Don't be shocked if Trubisky pulls a Goff and looks like a real QB with a real coaching staff next year. Or the Bears hire a Ryan brother, honestly could go either way.

— Jon Benne (@LordBenne) December 16, 2017

Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions — Any lingering goodwill Caldwell might’ve had evaporated after Week 16, when the Lions suffered an embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and knocked themselves out of playoff contention. The local media has since sharpened the knives, with the Detroit Free Press calling the loss “inexcusable” and Pride of Detroit saying it’s time to move on. For general manager Bob Quinn, this might be the ideal time to find his own head coach rather than stick with a holdover coach he didn’t hire. The Lions could really use some new blood as they keep wasting away Matthew Stafford’s prime years.

Moderately hot

Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — It’s probably not a good sign when the head coach has to deny reports of tension between himself and quarterback Jameis Winston. But that’s where the Bucs find themselves in a season where they were supposed to take a big step forward but faceplanted instead. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith also shouldn’t be off the hook after the way the Bucs defense collapsed this year.

Mildly warm

Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders — Much like Koetter, Del Rio’s team had big expectations entering the season and failed to live up to them. The Raiders’ fall is even more sudden after going 12-4 and ending their playoff drought last year. Derek Carr went from an MVP candidate to looking like just a guy, while Amari Cooper horribly regressed and the defense is still bad despite having Khalil Mack. Del Rio already fired his defensive coordinator, which might be enough to get one more year, but he’s under the gun now.

Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans — How do you make Marcus Mariota boring? That’s what Mularkey somehow managed to do, as he and his coaching staff fielded a painfully unwatchable offense despite obvious skill-position talent. The Titans are still in the playoff picture, but if they miss out after an 8-4 start, then Mularkey has some questions to answer.

Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans — Not every team is going to survive losing their franchise QB in early October, but the way the Texans curled up and died after Deshaun Watson tore his ACL is kinda startling. They’ve been 1-7 since then, trotting out Tom Savage and T.J. Yates as metaphorical white flags.

In fairness to O’Brien, he was dealt an awful hand with injuries this season. (The quarterbacks, J.J. Watt, and Whitney Mercilus are just the tip of the iceberg). However, there was reported tension between him and general manager Rick Smith, including concerns about him being the right fit for Watson’s skill set. Combine that with the Texans’ worst record since 2013 — right before O’Brien was hired — and this could lead to a clash of egos when all is said and done.

Jay Gruden, Washington — I don’t think Gruden is actually getting fired, but in Washington your job is only as safe as whatever mood Dan Snyder is in that day. Plus, Gruden’s teams have gone from 9-7 to 8-7-1 to 7-8, showing little signs of upward trajectory despite being one of the few teams with a stable franchise quarterback. We’ll see how safe Gruden really is if Washington loses Kirk Cousins to free agency.

Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos — One-and-done firings are still pretty rare, but Joseph might be the strongest contender this year. The Broncos’ defense-first plan fell apart because they have no quarterback, and Joseph already offered up former OC Mike McCoy as a sacrificial lamb. In addition, John Elway hasn’t been shy about throwing his weight around, and he isn’t mincing words about his dissatisfaction. Elway should probably get more heat for the quarterback situation (Paxton Lynch, last year’s first-round pick, already looks like a lost cause), but Joseph still has a lot to prove if he survives this year.

Other names to watch

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns — He’s about to go 1-31 in two years, but Cleveland’s situation is way too chaotic to make a solid guess either way. Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals — Dogged by retirement rumors most of the year, he could well take his leave with Arizona’s contention window closing. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers — He should probably be sending Aaron Rodgers gift baskets every Christmas. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys — How much longer will Jerry Jones put up with his aggressive mediocrity?

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junker-town · 7 years ago

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7 things to watch in NFL’s Week 5: Are the Cowboys already in must-win mode?

The Cowboys are looking to avoid a losing record while the Raiders hope that, unlike last year, they can win a game without Derek Carr.

This week’s matchup with the Packers should feel like a revenge game for the Cowboys. The last time these teams met, Dallas lost a 34-31 heartbreaker in the playoffs. Mason Crosby hit a field goal to put the Packers ahead with three seconds left to play in the NFC Divisional round.

This time around, there’s not a lot of buildup to this game. That may be due in part to the fact that Dallas is 2-2 and coming off a home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. There already has to be concern about whether or not the team can get back to the postseason in a competitive NFC East.

January’s matchup between the Packers and Cowboys was one of the most exciting games of a pretty wild postseason. The Cowboys lost, but they were expected to at least come close to replicating last season’s success. Now it looks like teams are starting to figure out how to slow down Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.

That puts more pressure on the Cowboys to get a signature win in Week 5. But this game is also a huge opportunity for the Cowboys to start to swing things back in their favor. The Packers are giving up an average of 111 rushing yards per game, which puts them 19th in the league. Elliott has looked like a shadow of his rookie self this year, with under 70 yards per game and just two touchdowns. If he can get going against the Packers, it gives the Cowboys a much better chance to win.

The defense is going to have its hands full with Aaron Rodgers, and the offensive line will have to protect Prescott effectively and open up lanes for Elliott. It may be a close game, but Dallas has a shot to get back on the right side of .500.

And the Cowboys could use the win now. In a few weeks, they start a tough four-game stretch with matchups against Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta, and Philadelphia.

2017’s winless teams all get winnable games in Week 5

Through four games, four winless teams remain. Somehow, the Jets are not one of them.

Instead, a pair of old standbys, the Browns and 49ers, are joined by the Chargers and Giants in the race for 2018’s top draft pick. The Browns and 49ers are smack-dab in the middle of a rebuild, replete with young rosters and uneven quarterback situations. The Chargers and Giants have potential Hall of Famers behind center, but each boasts his own unique problems.

For the Giants, it’s a rushing offense in which Eli Manning is the top scorer and a defense that’s given up nearly 24 points per game. In Los Angeles, it’s the looming spectre of 16 straight road games — de facto or otherwise — and an offense that looks great on paper but unable to execute.

Team owners, executives, and coaches on each side are saying all the right things, but it’s fair to begin wondering if these four 0-4 franchises have begun to plan for 2018. Week 5 will be a big indicator of which teams are still trying and which have slid into tanking mode.

All four have winnable games. The Browns host the Jets, who are awful but somehow staring at a potential 3-2 record through five weeks. The 49ers, who have lost three straight games by three points or fewer for the first time in franchise history, travel to Indianapolis. The Chargers and Giants are playing each other, and while a 13-13 tie is what the NFL universe deserves, someone will probably win that contest.

Sunday’s winners will shake up the early line in the draft order — and might provide a glimpse into which teams are still fighting in December and which might be playing assembly line football.

Will Myles Garrett be enough to inspire hope for the Browns in his debut?

Cleveland’s prize for last year’s 1-15 campaign was the right to draft Garrett, an athletic freak who terrorized opposing passers for three seasons at Texas A&M. Unfortunately, a severe ankle sprain kept him out of the team’s first quarter of the season — the aforementioned 0-4 start.

Without Garrett in the lineup, the Browns have fielded an average pass rush, ranking 16th in the league in sack rate. While the rookie’s gaudy numbers at Texas A&M were padded by big performances against non-Power 5 opponents, the man who lit the NFL Combine aflame with his ridiculous performance should be able to use that raw talent to put opposing tackles on roller skates en route to the pocket.

Garrett started practicing for the first time during the regular season last Wednesday and is set to finally make his debut this week. He looks ready to contribute against a Jets offensive line that ranks 26th in the league in sacks allowed — and then celebrate in style:

#Browns Myles Garrett on if he gets a sack Sunday: "Special. I would love it. It's like a fat guy touchdown''

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 6, 2017

Can Malik Hooker, NFL’s leader in INTs, make it four picks in his last four games?

Out of all NFL rookies, somehow Malik Hooker was flying under the radar until last week when he got his third interception in as many games. The first-round pick showed during his time at Ohio State that he was more than capable of doing this, and the Colts are one of the teams that needed him most.

Last week against the Seahawks, Matthias Farley pulled a Romo and said that Hooker would get an interception during the game. He got it two plays later:

...@mfarley41 is psychic. http://pic.twitter.com/pwiQajSKJ1

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 3, 2017

Hooker’s past 16 games, dating back to his final season at Ohio State, have been quite impressive:

Colts S Malik Hooker has started 16 games b/w college and the NFL. In those 16 games, he has 10 interceptions.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) October 2, 2017

Hooker is currently leading the NFL in interceptions, and there’s no reason he can’t get that fourth pick this week — the Colts face Brian Hoyer and the 49ers. It would be quite an accomplishment for Hooker, who was often compared to Ed Reed prior to the 2017 NFL draft.

The Bengals’ resurgent offense gets its biggest test yet

In the first two weeks of the season, it was almost like a protection spell had been cast to ward off the Bengals from stepping foot in the end zone. Even when it looked like they had scored, nope, that’s not a touchdown:

After two weeks of winless, touchdown-free football, the Bengals fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor. Since then, the offense has looked revived, especially quarterback Andy Dalton:

Andy Dalton: 0 TD, 4 INT, 47.2 passer rating in first 2 games 6 TD, 0 INT, 138.2 passer rating over last 2 games http://pic.twitter.com/TsEKPWgt28

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 1, 2017

We should find out if the offense has truly rebounded on Sunday, when the 1-3 Bengals host the surprising 3-1 Bills. Through the first month of the season, the Buffalo defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA. No team in the league has given up fewer points, either. In their only loss so far this season — a 9-3 field goal fest against the Panthers — the Bills didn’t surrender any touchdowns. They’ve allowed just four all season.

Both teams are coming off their best games of the year. The Bills held the high-powered Falcons offense to just 17 points in last week’s win. The Bengals got their first W of the season, a 31-7 beatdown of the Browns.

But yes, that was against the Browns, who look like they’re regressing each week. The Bengals have a real challenge this week against the Bills — and a chance to prove that their slow offensive start is behind them.

The Bills can’t keep winning without any help from their wide receivers

After the first month of the season, the Bills are the class of the AFC East. To stay on top of the division, they’ll need a depleted receiving corps to step up.

Buffalo’s wideout depth chart took a hit this offseason as Robert Woods left for the Rams in free agency and oft-injured impact player Sammy Watkins was traded to the same destination. The team brought Jordan Matthews in from Philadelphia to help offset the loss, but the young veteran is out with a thumb injury, a common ailment in Buffalo right now:

Ramon Humber (thumb) & Jordan Matthews (thumb) DNP. Kyle Williams (thumb) full practice. Jerel Worthy (thumb) & Mike Tolbert (thumb) removed

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) October 5, 2017

That puts pressure on a position group that’s been mostly invisible in 2017. Matthews, the team’s top wideout, ranks third on the roster in receiving yards behind tailback LeSean McCoy and tight end Charles Clay. With four catches and 57 yards, rookie Zay Jones is the team’s next-most effective receiver. That is dire.

Buffalo’s inability to stretch the field with its wideouts has played a major role in Tyrod Taylor’s slow start; the QB has thrown for only 186 yards per game to begin season. Fortunately for the Bills, his accurate passing and the team’s stout defense has kept them afloat.

Can the Raiders survive without Derek Carr?

Almost no one expected the Raiders offense to look this bad. They are just 2-2 and struggling to score points or generate yards. To make matters worse, quarterback Derek Carr will miss two-to-six weeks due to a back fracture he suffered last week against the Denver Broncos.

When Carr broke his fibula in Week 16 of last season, the Raiders looked horrible without him. Carr didn't play in Week 17 or in the AFC Wild Card game. In those two matchups, the Raiders averaged only 10 points per game and backup quarterbacks Matt McGloin and Connor Cook both struggled.

Now, the Raiders will have to depend on EJ Manuel to make plays in the passing game. Last week when Carr got hurt, Manuel came in and looked steady, throwing for 106 yards and a late interception.

Manuel, who signed with the Raiders this offseason, is only 6-11 as a starter in his career. But Oakland’s offensive coordinator thinks the change of scenery has benefited Manuel:

Raiders OC Todd Downing on difference in EJ Manuel today than when he coached him in Buffalo: "I think he fell back in love with the game."

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) October 5, 2017

This Sunday, the Raiders host the Ravens, who have a tough defense but are also struggling on offense right now. At the very least, Manuel is a better quarterback than McGloin and Cook. He has a chance to lead the Raiders to victory, especially if the rest of the team steps up.

More than anything, the Raiders need the offensive line to start doing its job. The rushing attack, led by Marshawn Lynch, ranks just 24th in the league. The offensive line isn’t creating holes for Lynch, and it hasn’t done a good job of protecting the quarterback. A strong effort from them could have a snowball effect that would help keep the team survive Carr’s absence.

The top highlights from Week 4 in the NFL

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junker-town · 7 years ago

Text

7 things to watch in NFL’s Week 5: Are the Cowboys already in must-win mode?

The Cowboys are looking to avoid a losing record while the Raiders hope that, unlike last year, they can win a game without Derek Carr.

And the Cowboys could use the win now. In a few weeks, they start a tough four-game stretch with matchups against Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta, and Philadelphia.

2017’s winless teams all get winnable games in Week 5

Through four games, four winless teams remain. Somehow, the Jets are not one of them.

Sunday’s winners will shake up the early line in the draft order — and might provide a glimpse into which teams are still fighting in December and which might be playing assembly line football.

Will Myles Garrett debut — and be enough to inspire hope for the Browns?

Garrett started practicing for the first time during the regular season last Wednesday and hinted that he would finally make his debut this week. He looks ready to contribute against a Jets offensive line that ranks 26th in the league in sacks allowed.

Can Malik Hooker, NFL’s leader in INTs, make it four picks in his last four games?

Last week against the Seahawks, Matthias Farley pulled a Romo and said that Hooker would get an interception during the game. He got it two plays later:

...@mfarley41 is psychic. http://pic.twitter.com/pwiQajSKJ1

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 3, 2017

Hooker’s past 16 games, dating back to his final season at Ohio State, have been quite impressive:

Colts S Malik Hooker has started 16 games b/w college and the NFL. In those 16 games, he has 10 interceptions.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) October 2, 2017

The Bengals’ resurgent offense gets its biggest test yet

Andy Dalton: 0 TD, 4 INT, 47.2 passer rating in first 2 games 6 TD, 0 INT, 138.2 passer rating over last 2 games http://pic.twitter.com/TsEKPWgt28

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 1, 2017

The Bills can’t keep winning without any help from their wide receivers

After the first month of the season, the Bills are the class of the AFC East. To stay on top of the division, they’ll need a depleted receiving corps to step up.

Ramon Humber (thumb) & Jordan Matthews (thumb) DNP. Kyle Williams (thumb) full practice. Jerel Worthy (thumb) & Mike Tolbert (thumb) removed

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) October 5, 2017

The Bills signed Philly Brown to bolster their pass-catching corps, but there’s a reason the former Panthers starter has languished on the free agent market this long. Buffalo’s inability to stretch the field with its wideouts has played a major role in Tyrod Taylor’s slow start; the QB has thrown for only 186 yards per game to begin season. Fortunately for the Bills, his accurate passing and the team’s stout defense has kept them afloat.

Can the Raiders survive without Derek Carr?

Now, the Raiders will have to depend on EJ Manuel to make plays in the passing game. Last week when Carr got hurt, Manuel came in and looked steady, throwing for 106 yards and a late interception.

Manuel, who signed with the Raiders this offseason, is only 6-11 as a starter in his career. But Oakland’s offensive coordinator thinks the change of scenery has benefited Manuel:

Raiders OC Todd Downing on difference in EJ Manuel today than when he coached him in Buffalo: "I think he fell back in love with the game."

— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) October 5, 2017

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