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thesewomenrulemyworld · 3 years

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options trading mentor reviews Arkansas

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weekly stock options trading Arkansas My Path ForwardTrading options may sound sexy, but it�s pretty tedious.

trading options 101 Arkansas That said, the more you learn, the more you realize how little you know.

high probability options trading Arkansas The downside to a bear put spread is limited to the premium paid for the purchased options less the premium gained from the written options, which occurs when both of the options expire worthless.

day trading course options Arkansas Considering my annual living costs are around $40,000, that�s REAL money.

advanced options trading Arkansas �Simply put, a stock option contract gives the holder the right to buy or sell a set number of shares for a pre-determined price over a defined time frame.

learn options trading dvd course Arkansas The guy that mentored and taught me how to trade stocks in the first place.

trading weekly options course Arkansas The beauty is you even earn extra income while doing it.

options trading program reviews Arkansas Option traders use covered calls when they like the long term prospects of a security they own, but feel that the price is unlikely to increase in the short term or may even fall.

learning options trading Arkansas When I took the GMAT exams to apply for grad school, I scored in the top ten percentile for verbal (Yaaaay English Lit Class!

The protective put that attributed to most of my gains thus far was a protective Fastly put.

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best website for options trading picks credit spread Arkansas 2 I paid for re-insurance).

He responded by saying, �I trade options for a living.

options trading course video Arkansas Here�s My ScorecardOne year after starting, with over a thousand executions, lots of late nights trading the US market from Asia, and endless hours of studying, I�ve logged a total profit of $29,753.

Similarly, they can quintuple in a single day depending on what happens to the company. An index fund will never go down by 80% in a single day, but it will also never quintuple in a single day. And an option�s value can swing wildly within a few minutes depending on the price movement of the underlying stock. Nibble With Your Options BuysThe first time I bought options, I was extremely conservative. I bought a single Nikola put contract which did well. My logic for buying the put was that more evidence around Nikola�s fraudulent practices were emerging. I followed this stock for weeks before finally deciding to get started. I still buy Nikola puts to this day and will likely continue buying puts until the stock gets delisted. Due to Nikola�s premiums being higher than the average stock, I buy puts set to expire in 5�8 days. For stocks with lower premiums, I�ll buy options with further out expiration dates. The further your expiration date, the more time you have for the stock to move in your direction.

options trading reddit Arkansas For example, if a trader sold 2 call options at $40, they would buy one call option at $45 and another at $35 to match the 2 written options sold.

In contrast, I locked in my revenue after each options trade was closed. I love that my profit is a real number added to the cash portion in my brokerage account rather than an abstraction based on the market trending higher. Another point to note regarding the capital at risk is that it doesn�t need to be sitting in your account in the form of cash. It will absolutely provide peace of mind if that�s the case, but you can invest it as you like to boost your returns. When I started this a year ago, my broker was paying me 1. 9% for idle USD in the account, so I was quite happy leaving it. However, that�s obviously not the case anymore, with interest rates at zero. But I could allocate that money into some safe dividend stocks and boost my returns that way. Which is somewhat the approach I�m taking. My Path ForwardTrading options may sound sexy, but it�s pretty tedious. I�ve entered over a thousand executions into my spreadsheet this past year, which is something I LOVE doing. I used to have to make manual trade confirmations at work. Now I do it to record my profits!I feel like a kid counting pennies added to his piggy bank. Except this one pays to feed my family!That said, the more you learn, the more you realize how little you know. And that�s how I feel right now. Rather than patting myself on the back for profiting this past year, I feel hesitant to be proud. I realize how little I know and that I�m merely scratching the surface of the knowledge I need to feel fully confident in trading options for a living. And also how much more I need to hit the books. In terms of specific actions I need to take, they mainly involve expanding my arsenal of trading strategies. Before the market crash, I was exploring a couple that I would love to have in my rotation. One is the very cool sounding reverse iron condor, which is used to profit from significant moves around earnings announcements. When you think there�ll be a move either up or down, but are unsure of which way, this is the strategy to use. Another is deep in the money covered calls around ex-dividend days. The reason for my interest in these two strategies is that they are generally closed within just a couple of days, thereby minimizing market exposure. It�s, therefore, possible to increase returns while also reducing my exposure to the market movements. Sure, it�ll involve countless hours more of studying, but despite my mathematically challenged brain, it�s pretty fun.

udemy options trading basics 3 course bundle Arkansas 7 Option Trading Strategies Every Trader Should KnowTrading options has exploded in popularity over the last couple of decades, and option trading in particular has become a major force in contemporary finance.

There isn�t a chance of losing all of your money with a covered call strategy if you use the strategy on good stocks. That�s why I recommend starting here. Covered calls give you a deeper perspective of what can happen to the value of options. In a single day, a call or put can go down over 80%. Similarly, they can quintuple in a single day depending on what happens to the company. An index fund will never go down by 80% in a single day, but it will also never quintuple in a single day.

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options trading analysis Arkansas Long Call and Long Put Option StrategiesLong calls and long puts are simply positions taken in an underlying security using options instead of the actual security.

This situation occurs in the same sort of events as are popular for the straddle strategy, but the trader is more confident that the change in price will be extreme. The strangle can expire worthless, unlike a straddle, but the lower initial outlay on premiums means that a strangle may actually cost loss in the event of a loss than a straddle will with only a small change in price. The strangle also has a much stronger upside potential due to the lower initial premium cost and the greater potential value increase for options that were purchased out of the money. ButterflyThe butterfly options strategy involves the sale of call or put options at a given strike price, usually at the current price, matched by an equal number of purchased call or put options equidistant from the strike price. For example, if a trader sold 2 call options at $40, they would buy one call option at $45 and another at $35 to match the 2 written options sold. In this example, the loss from the trade would be maximized at either $35 or $45, while the trade would be profitable somewhere between the $35 to $45 range. The profit from the butterfly position would be maximized at $40. Options traders use the butterfly option strategy when they wish to bet on little or no upcoming price change. The purchased options act as a form of insurance against major price changes, putting a ceiling on the potential losses from the trade. Covered CallA covered call uses the actual underlying security to cover the potential losses of writing call options on the security. For example, if the option trader owns shares of company A, they can write call options at a higher strike price for a matching number of shares. If the price of the shares goes above the strike price, then the losses are capped by simply trading the shares that the option writer already owns when the options are exercised. If the price of the shares rise yet fail to reach the strike price, then the option trader gains both from the increase in the underlying shares and the premium gained from the written calls expiring worthless. If the price of the shares fall, then the loss in the value of the underlying shares is somewhat offset by the premium from the written options that expired worthless. Option traders use covered calls when they like the long term prospects of a security they own, but feel that the price is unlikely to increase in the short term or may even fall. In this case they are able to gain the premium from writing the call options with the security of owning the shares in case that the options expire in the money.

investools trading options course Arkansas Unlike trading stocks where you need the price to go up to profit, I make money if the stock price rises, stays the same, or goes lower by not too much.

While this kind of situation can arise for a variety of reasons, straddles are most often used when there is a significant event that is set to occur on or around a specific date.

options trading income Arkansas The profit from a bear put spread is maximized when the price of the underlying security reaches slightly above the strike price of the written put options, which means that the written options expire worthless while the value of the purchased options is maximized within the window of the written options expiring without value.

Unlike trading stocks where you need the price to go up to profit, I make money if the stock price rises, stays the same, or goes lower by not too much.

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completeautoloans · 6 years

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Winning Tactics For How to Buy A Truck with Bad Credit

How to Buy a Truck with Bad Credit

Do you need a new pickup truck for your farm but have low credit ratings? The good news is that there several genuine credit lenders near you willing to help you achieve your dream. In fact, some allow you to buy brand new vehicles despite your credit status. So, sit tight because you’re going to learn how bad credit truck loans work.

1. Can I get a truck loan with a credit score of 550?

Yes, you can. In fact, some lenders even allow customers with credit scores of 500 to apply for financing. You’ll basically come across two types of bad credit lenders. The first lot uses their own money to help you buy a new or used truck.

On the other hand, you might meet credit brokers. These websites collect your personal information then applies for a truck loan on your behalf. Once the loan gets approved, the broker marks up the interest rate. For instance, if the bank offers the truck loan at 6%, the broker will adjust it to 8 or 9%.

2. Can I get a truck with bad credit and no money down?

Truth is, it’s impossible to find a credit lender who’s willing to take on such a huge financial risk. However, you can still get a new or used truck without making a down payment by applying for a secured car loan. How does this work?

The bank or credit union agrees to finance your truck purchase in exchange for a collateral asset you own. For instance, your home’s title deed, stock certificates, or retirement benefits. One advantage of this approach is that you can get more affordable interest rates compared to inhouse financing.

3. Is it possible to Refinance truck loan bad credit?

The good news is that most auto lenders and truck dealerships offer refinancing options. Why do they offer this service? Because they want to make sure you can afford the truck. Even if it means having them extend your repayment period in order to fit your financial situation.

Suggested read: Trading in a car with a negative balance

4. 11 ways of purchasing a truck with low credit

1. Plan a clear budget

Taking on a loan is like planning a journey. The destination determines how much money you’re going to spend. Just like your destination, the loan principal determines how much money you’ll spend to own your new pickup or semi-trailer truck.

If you’re not sure how to do this, here’s a simple tip to help you determine whether you can afford a truck or not. Take the monthly payment and multiply it by 12 so that you have the annual amount. If the figure is below 50% of your annual income, then you can go ahead and buy the truck.

2. Download your credit report

Did you know that credit lenders don’t refund your application fees if you don’t meet the requirements for financing? Your auto finance lender or bank expects you to download the credit report and confirm whether it meets the minimum limit.

After downloading your credit report from FICO, check the details on your previous loan. This helps you to notice any unreported monthly payments. If there are, raise the issue with your creditor so that your credit score improves.

Smart debtors download their credit reports on a monthly basis in order to keep track of whether credit lenders update their credit accounts on time.

3. Consider add-ons you want to purchase

If you’re looking for a truck that matches your everyday needs, then it most likely needs extra accessories to get the job done. For instance, you might need steel towing equipment for your pickup truck to transport heavy farm equipment. In addition, a set of fog lights is necessary to enhance visibility in bad weather.

It’s almost impossible to find a dealer who sells you a new truck with this equipment because auto manufacturers want you to spend more money on accessories. So, to avoid unpleasant surprises at the dealership, save some extra money for such expenses.

4. Look at the recurring monthly expenses

Ordinary buyers only look at the truck’s sticker price when making purchasing decisions. However, smart customers take a step back to look at what it costs to own the truck beyond the sticker price. What are the recurring costs that come with buying a particular model?

You want a truck that’s highly reliable and doesn’t burn holes in your pockets whenever you want to fill up the gas tank. Then you also need to ask yourself how much you’re willing to pay for insurance. Remember, your credit lender expects you to get a comprehensive cover during the entire repayment period.

5. Shop for the best trade in offers near you

Where there’s high demand for a product or service, you’ll also find many sellers actively competing to dominate the market. As a customer, this competition benefits you by exposing you to a wide range of truck financing deals from various lenders.

Take time to make a list of credit lenders whom you think can offer you a good deal then visit their offices. Find out what books they use to determine values of trucks because they’ll also use the same approach to work out a trade in offer. Also, check how long it takes to get the process done.

6. Get a cosigner

Some credit lenders are more cautious than others when dealing with debtors with bad credit scores. You might find a bank or credit union that has fantastic interest rates and wonderful repayment periods but there’s a catch. Buyers must present cosigners when applying for truck loans.

Truth is, it’s hard to get a cosigner at the last minute. You need a lot of time to find and convince someone to take that financial risk with you. How soon should you start looking for a cosigner? At least one month before your purchase.

Read about liens

7. Save up a huge down payment

Bad credit loans are expensive compared to typical auto financing due to the double-digit interest rates. If your credit score is above 720, lenders will offer you financing at either 3 or 4 %. However, a bad credit customer whose score is below 550 ends up paying 14-16% interest.

The best way of reducing your monthly payments is by showing up with a huge down payment. Plan to show up with at least 40-50% of the sticker price. Doing this enables you to increase your monthly payment in order to reduce the loan duration.

8. Apply for a pre approved truck loan

A pre approved truck loan is whereby a bank or credit lender offers you money to buy a new or used car. Unlike inhouse financing where you have to settle for a certain car, the bank allows you to buy any car from any dealership or private seller.

What are the benefits of this purchasing method? It instills in you the same amount of confidence as a cash buyer. This gives you the freedom to walk away from a bad deal because you already have your financing sorted out. You also get the opportunity to compare your bank’s deal with the truck dealership’s financing deal.

9. Get a referral to the best bad credit lender

If you’ve never bought a car or truck using a bad credit loan, then you might know someone who did. It could be a friend or relative who was once in a similar situation that you’re currently facing. Rather than hoping to stumble on a good creditor, you’re better off seeking a referral.

Having a referral enables you to prepare all the necessary documents at home. Doing this makes loan processing faster. Plus, you also get to establish a good relationship with the lender when a former customer brings you on board.

10. Avoid bad credit behavior before applying for financing

Credit lenders view certain activities as red flags that make a potential debtor unsuitable for business. These behaviors signal financial instability and no lender wants to spend time and money following up on late payments. What are these red flags?

Applying for several truck loans within a span of two weeks or less. When a potential creditor sees the high number of lenders who’ve accessed your report within such a short time, they can tell that you have a high rejection rate. Avoid applying for several credit cards during this period because it brings about the same conclusion.

11. Avoid deals that are too enticing

Just like any market, the bad credit financing sector has a few shady lenders waiting to pounce on desperate victims. You may come across a dealership offering really nice monthly payments that amount to 40-50% of what other truck sellers offered you. However, when you have a professional look at the truck, it dawns on you that the engine is a total rebuilt. That’s even worse than an old used car.

You ought to keep an eye out for bait-and-switch financing deals. How do they work? A truck dealership entices you with an amazing truck and a low-interest rate. However, as soon as you sign up, the dealer informs you that the low-interest rate expires after six months. After this period, the interest rate might rise by three or four points.

Are you thinking of getting a military car loan?

Now you know

As a truck buyer, your priorities are getting value for money and boosting your credit ratings simultaneously. That’s why you need these 11 tips to guide your purchasing decision.

Suggested read: How to apply for private party auto financing

from Complete Auto Loans http://bit.ly/2AafgTL via IFTTT

#IFTTT #Complete Auto Loans

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flauntpage · 6 years

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Your Full Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide

If you have been thinking about getting in on New Jersey’s legal sports betting action, but have not yet done so, then I can think of no better time to get involved than Thanksgiving Day. With three pivotal NFL games featuring six NFC teams (Bears-Lions, Redskins-Cowboys, Falcons-Saints) on tap, it’s the perfect opportunity to add a little intrigue to your holiday gathering. I mean, if you’re going to sit around and have a bunch of conversations that you’re really not that interested in, then you might as well fire up a mobile sportsbook app and get a taste of the spread. And with the great promos and sign-up bonuses being offered from throughout the weekend, you will be thankful that you did.

I know, the puns, I’m sorry. They were there, and I had to do it.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at what some of the New Jersey sportsbooks are serving up this Thanksgiving and deep dives into each of the actual games to find where there is value in the lines. OK, I’m done with the puns for real now.

The action

Note: All betting lines are as of 9:00 a.m. Wednesday morning and are subject to change. In fact, they most certainly will change.

I made this chart tracking the current lines and values across the major online legal sportsbooks for each of Thursday’s three NFL games. It even has some pretty Thanksgiving artwork. Enjoy.

The specials

DraftKings

Now is a good time to get involved with our partner DraftKings Sportsbook. They are giving new users a $50 free bet upon registration this weekend. No nonsense. No risk. No deposit required. And, of course, get your first bet matched instantly up to $200.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

As always, new users will receive a 100% match on initial deposits up to $250. Current users can also take advantage of SugarHouse’s deposit match between now and Friday where they will tack on 25% up to $50 in 1x bonus money. SugarHouse has yet to divulge specific details of other promos, but they have told us to stay tuned for boosts, risk-free bets, and other sports offers. SugarHouse is the easiest and quickest way to get signed up and playing.

FanDuel

FanDuel isn’t exactly telling us what they have in store, but they plan to offer special promos via their “Thanksgiving Spread” throughout the weekend, including mystery odds boosts on Black Friday. Looks appetizing.

BetStars NJ

As always, BetStars offers a generous $50 free bet with no deposit and a $500 sign-up bonus, and a lucrative Parlay Bonus:

But you can also enjoy their Black Friday Boosts that run all the way through Cyber Monday.

Visit the BetStars homepage at noon on Black Friday for your first offer, and come back every hour between 12-4 p.m. to get Odds Boosts on the biggest sporting events.

888sport NJ

888sport NJ will give you $10 just for signing up with no deposit required, but if you sign up, they, too, offer an enticing bonus of up to $500.

Also be sure to check out 888sport NJ’s NCAA Basketball Challenge that will double payouts on parlays of at least 3 bets and odds of -200 or higher on college basketball games.

Trends to know

Chicago (7-3) at Detroit (4-6), 12:30, CBS

Photo credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

The day’s first game kicks off in the Motor City where the Bears will look to tighten their hold on the NFC North a week after an important 25-20 win over the Vikings. Chicago rolled Detroit two weeks ago at Soldier Field after Mitch Trubisky threw for 355 yards and three scores to back a defense that limited the Lions to only 305 yards of total offense. This time around, however, the Bears may be without Trubisky after he suffered a shoulder injury against Minnesota. He was downgraded to doubtful and head coach Matt Nagy sounds uncertain that his starting quarterback will be available.

The Bears aren’t the only team with injury concerns ahead of this contest. Marvin Jones will miss another game, and running back Kerryon Johnson is out with a knee injury.

As of Wednesday morning, 59% of spread bets are on Chicago, but only 52% of the money backs the Bears. Some sharp money is on Detroit.

The Bears have been hot lately, going 4-1 both straight-up and against the spread over the last five weeks, and the over has been hot in their games as well, hitting in six of the last seven contests. The Lions, despite a disappointing 4-6 overall record, are 6-4 ATS. Aside from their Week 10 setback in Chicago, they have been excellent against the Bears in recent years and are 6-2 ATS at home against them dating back to 2010.

One more thing: Detroit has gone 4-1 ATS and straight-up on Thanksgiving since 2013.

Prediction: Frankly, with the injuries creating so much uncertainty leading up to this game, I’m not sure how you’re supposed to bet on it. If Chase Daniel is playing quarterback, then I’m 100% out on Chicago, even with that defense. Since I don’t know, and I’m on a deadline, I’m backing Detroit at home with the points. But you could also save three hours and bet on the coin toss.

Those looking to get the best value on the Bears should head to FanDuel and grab them without the hook at -3 (-110). Those liking the Lions coming off their surprising Week 11 win over the Panthers can save a few dollars in price at BetStars where they are +3.5 (-105).

As for the totals, those who want the over can grab it anywhere because it’s at 44 (-110) across the board, except at FanDuel where it’s 44.5. If you’re on the under, head there and grab the half-point.

Washington (6-4) at Dallas (5-5), 4:30, FOX

Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

This is a huge game in the wide-open NFC East. The Redskins cling to a one-game lead over a resurgent Cowboys team that was left for dead this time two weeks ago. But in order to remain atop the division they will need to win on the road with backup quarterback Colt McCoy. Considering the Redskins weren’t exactly what anyone would call an explosive offense prior to Smith’s injury and that head coach Jay Gruden asks fairly little of his quarterback in terms of making explosive plays, losing Smith may not be the knockout blow many figure it to be. Although McCoy doesn’t have any exceptional qualities as a signal-caller, he’s one of the better backups in the league, and it’s not a stretch to think he can step in and replace Smith as a game manager. The real issue for Washington will be keeping him clean against an underrated Dallas defense. Behind a decimated offensive line a week ago, Smith and McCoy were sacked five times by the Texans defense.

Washington knocked off Dallas at FedEx Field back in late October after throttling the Cowboys’ rushing attack. Ezekiel Elliott was held to only 33 yards on 15 carries, and his longest run of the day went for only six yards. Dak Prescott has played better the past two weeks in the wake of the Amari Cooper’s arrival, but it’s been Elliott that’s really led the way, and it will be imperative for the Redskins keep him in check once again.

At the time of this post, only 41% of spread bets are on Washington, but 59% of the money backs the Redskins, so it’s clear the big-money gamblers like getting the points in this division contest.

The Cowboys are only 15-25-1 ATS under Jason Garrett as a favorite when they are coming off a win the previous week, including 0-1 ATS when they lost at Washington. Dallas, meanwhile, is 0-7 ATS and only 3-4 straight-up on Thanksgiving since 2011. And finally, the Cowboys are a woeful 4-16 ATS over their past 20 games when favored by more than a touchdown ,and that really shouldn’t come as a surprise because lines get pumped up any time Dallas looks like a functionally operational team.

Prediction: Given the Cowboys’ ability to get Ezekiel Elliott going over the past two weeks, I’ll reluctantly pick them to outlast an injury-ravaged Redskins squad at home, but is this team really, truly all that much different than the one that was about to have dirt shoveled on it two weeks ago? They beat two bad (and overrated) teams in the Eagles and Falcons. Now they’re a 7.5-point favorite? No thanks. I’ll take the points.

The Redskins are reeling after losing starting quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury last Sunday, but those looking to back the NFC East leader against the Cowboys should head to DraftKings or SugarHouse where you can get the hook at +7.5 (-117). If you think the resurgent Cowboys will roll to their third-straight win, then BetStars is the place to be with Dallas at -7 (-110).

Atlanta (4-6) at New Orleans (9-1), 8:20, NBC

Photo credit: The Daily Advertiser-USA TODAY N

If you’ve ever stood at a roulette table that’s on a run, you know it’s going to come to an end some time. That’s kind of how I look at the Saints right now. Since 2003, only nine teams, including the 2018 Saints, have covered eight-straight games ATS. Only one other team has won nine in a row while covering eight in a row. It’s been an impressive run, for sure.

Atlanta, meanwhile, limps into this game having lost on the road at Cleveland two weeks ago and was beat at the gun by Dallas last Sunday. At two games under .500, they need a win on Thursday night to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.

In terms of matchups, the Saints have dropped 45, 51, and 48 points the last three weeks and appear completely unstoppable. For the season, the Saints have already scored 40 or more points six times. Also of note, New Orleans’ near-bottom-of-the-league pass defense has played better in recent weeks. It held Carson Wentz under 200 passing yards and picked him off three times during last week’s rout.

Currently, only 34% of point-spread bets back the Falcons, but an overwhelming 70% of the money likes the idea of backing an underdog with some big names on offense in this divisional contest.

In terms of historical trends, there are two strong ones that will come into conflict in this game. Matt Ryan is 19-9 ATS in his career in night games, while the Saints are 16-6 ATS in night games at home since Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. The Saints, however, have not been particularly good as a double-digit favorite under head coach Sean Payton, going 7-14 ATS.

It’s probably also worth considering the success of favorites on Thursday nights this season. They have gone a staggering 8-2-1 ATS, and favorites of six or more points are 14-3 ATS on Thanksgiving (this also works for Dallas) over the last 16 seasons.

Prediction: It’s really, really hard to pick against the Saints right now, but I have a difficult time getting over the fact that only two teams since 2003 have covered nine-straight games, just as I have a hard time overlooking that the Saints have beat the Falcons by 14 or more points only once since 2008. At the same time, do I want to back the Falcons, a team that constantly stumbles in big spots and failed to finish drives a week ago, against a Saints team that allows no margin for error? Yuck.

In terms of the total, these two teams combined to light up the scoreboard for 80 points back in Week 3, so a total of 60 seems pretty manageable this time around. But, and I have nothing to actually back this up, I’m a little weary of taking a big over in a night game only 72 hours after we just watched a 105-point game in Los Angeles on Monday night. And here’s something else to keep in mind: since 2003, the under has cashed at a 62% rate over a 267-game sample in games featuring division rivals with a total greater than 44 after Week 11.

I’ll take the under and hold my breath.

If you think the Saints can keep their impressive streak alive, then head to DraftKings, SugarHouse, or 888sport and grab them at -12.5 (-110). Those that think Atlanta can hang around with their division rival after back-to-back losses should roll with FanDuel at +13 (-115).

Those on the over should get it at FanDuel where it’s 59.5 (-110), and those on the under can grab it at BetStars where it’s set at 60 (-105).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER.

Full disclosure: We are an affiliate of legal New Jersey sports betting sites, so we may receive a commission if you use our links.

The post Your Full Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Your Full Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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jodyedgarus · 6 years

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Bengals-Ravens — On A Thursday Night! — Is The Most Important Game Of Week 2

Just one week into the NFL season, it’s hard to know exactly which teams will be contenders and which will be focused on their spot in the draft next spring. So it probably seems too early to be discussing playoff implications — a conversation that’s usually on hold until Thanksgiving. But in a 16-game schedule, the margins are small, and each game has a big effect on the postseason picture. Week 2 is no different — after all, the season will be 12.5 percent over after Monday night.

Thursday’s AFC North tilt between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens is one of those early season contests that could end up having real postseason consequences. In fact, our NFL Elo prediction model considers it the most important game of Week 2. (Remember when Thursday Night Football was a place to stash the NFL’s unwanted matchups?) With a win, each team’s chances of making the playoffs would jump by about 15 percentage points, while the loser would see a commensurate decline. Especially after the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers stumbled out of the gate without star RB Le’Veon Bell, the chance to jump out to a 2-0 start is a big opportunity for both Baltimore and Cincy.

Bengals-Ravens could help make or break their seasons

Week 2 games with the most total potential swing for the two teams’ playoff chances, according to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo predictions

Playoff % Playoff % Team A Current Avg. Chg* Team B Current Avg. Chg* Total Change BAL 59.0% +/-15.1 CIN 39.6% +/-14.8 29.9 ATL 51.1 14.1 CAR 52.4 13.9 28.1 GB 29.0 13.5 MIN 73.7 12.9 26.3 NYJ 39.0 13.3 MIA 30.3 12.9 26.2 LAC 33.3 12.4 BUF 21.8 9.8 22.2 PIT 53.8 12.1 KC 74.8 9.9 22.0 TB 35.6 11.6 PHI 82.9 8.4 20.0 JAX 64.3 10.8 NE 81.8 8.8 19.6 SEA 40.3 11.8 CHI 14.6 7.2 19.1 LAR 58.1 10.9 ARI 14.1 7.9 18.8 DEN 30.0 10.5 OAK 14.3 7.9 18.4 TEN 30.4 9.7 HOU 15.2 8.1 17.9 DET 19.1 8.7 SF 22.2 8.4 17.1 DAL 33.5 8.1 NYG 6.4 4.1 12.2 WSH 39.1 7.9 IND 9.9 4.1 12.0 NO 27.8 4.2 CLE 2.4 1.2 5.4

*Average change is weighted by the likelihood of a win or loss. (Ties are excluded.)

Source: ESPN.com

The Ravens come into the matchup off of a 44-point demolition of the Buffalo Bills, which propelled Baltimore from 12th to eighth in our Elo rankings. With the Bills starting the comically ineffective Nathan Peterman at QB, it’s difficult to judge how much we really learned about the Ravens in the blowout. But it had to be encouraging for Baltimore fans to see Joe Flacco play well, regardless of the opponent. At home against Buffalo, Flacco generated 119 more adjusted net yards than a generic backup-level quarterback would have (aka yards above backup QB, or YABQ), which ranked sixth among all signal-callers in Week 1 — behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.

In terms of YABQ, this game also represented the third-best that Flacco has enjoyed since Week 3 of the 2015 season, which helps underscore how bad Flacco has been in recent years. For instance, last season the Ravens had the third-worst quarterbacking production of any team in the league, with Flacco’s individual metrics in a three-year tailspin. For a team that featured one of the NFL’s best defenses last season, any spark that Flacco and the offense can provide could go a long way toward sending Baltimore back to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. And in their first test against the overmatched Bills, Flacco and the revamped Ravens receiving corps passed with flying colors.

A somewhat similar narrative is unfolding in Cincinnati. With much-maligned QB Andy Dalton embarking on his eighth season as the Bengals’ starter (and coach Marvin Lewis back for an astonishing 16th year on the team’s sidelines), Cincy went into Indianapolis and beat Andrew Luck and the Colts thanks to solid passing and rushing, plus timely defensive plays late in the game. Aside from maybe Flacco, few quarterbacks in the league needed to start the season on the right foot more than Dalton, who infamously has never won a playoff game during his time in the Queen City.

A win over Baltimore on Thursday won’t change that — perhaps surprisingly, Dalton has beaten the Ravens more often than not anyway — but it would help quiet the doubts that Dalton’s best days are behind him. Since he finished third in the league in YABQ in 2015 (despite suffering a season-ending injury that December), he slipped to 11th in 2016 and 21st in 2017, and the Bengals didn’t make the playoffs either year. With a defense that projects to be mediocre at best, Cincinnati needs Dalton to reverse that slide in order to have any shot at the postseason — and probably to have any chance at salvaging the Dalton/Lewis era.

The great irony of the Bengals is that their quarterbacking has always been just good enough to come up short. While the Ravens have won two Super Bowls behind a couple of QBs (Flacco and Trent Dilfer) who were below-average passers for their careers, Cincinnati has consistently had average-to-good passing over the years, aside from a few notable exceptions. Just look back at the Bengals’ history of primary quarterbacks: 40 of their 47 seasons since 1972 have been led by five quarterbacks — Ken Anderson, Boomer Esiason, Jeff Blake, Carson Palmer and Dalton. Although none is in the Hall of Fame (Anderson’s case is a point of contentious debate), each rates as average or better in his career according to Pro-Football-Reference.com’s advanced passing index.

That’s why, from the 1970 AFL-NFL merger until the present day, no team has gotten more seasons of “competent” (above-backup level) quarterbacking than the Bengals have:

The Bengals always get competent QB play — but no rings

Most seasons with positive yards above backup quarterback (YABQ) for NFL franchises, 1970-2017

Franchise Seasons above backup level since 1970 Total YABQ Super Bowls 1 Washington 42 23,642 3 1 Cincinnati 42 23,128 0 3 Dallas 41 28,383 5 3 Miami 41 25,480 2 3 Pittsburgh 41 18,754 6 6 Minnesota 40 23,118 0 7 Denver 39 22,648 3 8 San Francisco 38 31,028 5 8 New England 38 25,478 5 8 Philadelphia 38 16,004 1

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

And yet, even though the teams around them on that list have won multiple Super Bowls, Cincinnati has yet to break through with even one win of its own.

History says that’s unlikely to change this season. But it is fair to say that Dalton’s duel with Flacco this week has taken on unexpected importance for an early season game. The winner will ensure itself a quick boost in playoff chances — and an extra helping of redemption after the way both teams have played the past few seasons.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

Last week, we relaunched our NFL Elo prediction interactive, which you can use to track every team in the league in the race for the Super Bowl. Along with it, we also brought back a popular feature from last season — a prediction game that lets you test your football smarts against our model (and thousands of fellow readers). Here were Elo’s best and worst picks against the field in Week 1:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 1

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 1 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET points OAK 50% LAR 68% LAR 33, OAK 13 +11.7

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ARI 61 ARI 55 WSH 24, ARI 6 +4.8

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GB 63 GB 71 GB 24, CHI 23 +3.3

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BAL 64 BAL 72 BAL 47, BUF 3 +2.9

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JAX 58 JAX 62 JAX 20, NYG 15 +0.7

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SEA 54 SEA 52 DEN 27, SEA 24 +0.0 PIT 79 PIT 76 PIT 21, CLE 21 +0.0 LAC 56 LAC 55 KC 38, LAC 28 -0.6

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CAR 60 CAR 60 CAR 16, DAL 8 -1.8

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IND 50 IND 50 CIN 34, IND 23 -1.9

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DET 71 DET 71 NYJ 48, DET 17 -2.4

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MIN 76 MIN 71 MIN 24, SF 16 -5.3

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NE 86 NE 77 NE 27, HOU 20 -6.3

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PHI 65 PHI 57 PHI 18, ATL 12 -9.6

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MIA 53 TEN 55 MIA 27, TEN 20 -10.3

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NO 74 NO 82 TB 48, NO 40 -13.5

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The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Overall, it was a pretty impressive opening week for Elo — in fact, our model cleaned up nicely, beating readers by 28.3 total points on average. This is especially surprising because Week 1 would seem to be the moment of the season when human pickers have the greatest edge on the algorithm. In our NFL preview, I noted that Elo can get caught a little flat-footed early in the season because it doesn’t know about all the roster and coaching moves that transpired over the summer. Theoretically, that should have made it as unprepared for Week 1 as Matt Patricia’s Detroit Lions … but unlike the Lions, Elo proved the naysayers (i.e., me) wrong.

Elo’s biggest win was in not dismissing the Buccaneers completely. While our readers gave the home Saints a better than 80 percent chance of winning, the model was more cautious, and it ended up paying off when Tampa (and backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick) dropped 48 points on New Orleans. Elo also picked up credit for calling the Dolphins’ protracted win over the Titans and for once again showing faith in the Eagles (just like in last year’s playoffs).

If the readers did have a crowning moment in Week 1, though, it was for calling the Rams’ big win over the Raiders in Oakland on Monday night. Elo thought the game was a pick ’em, but the readers knew better, giving L.A. a 68 percent chance of spoiling Jon Gruden’s return to the sidelines.

Thanks to everyone who played on opening week, and remember that it’s not too late to start, even if you missed Week 1. So be sure to get your picks in now!

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bengals-ravens-on-a-thursday-night-is-the-most-important-game-of-week-2/

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thesewomenrulemyworld · 3 years

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flauntpage · 6 years

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Your Full Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide

I know, the puns, I’m sorry. They were there, and I had to do it.

The action

Note: All betting lines are as of 9:00 a.m. Wednesday morning and are subject to change. In fact, they most certainly will change.

I made this chart tracking the current lines and values across the major online legal sportsbooks for each of Thursday’s three NFL games. It even has some pretty Thanksgiving artwork. Enjoy.

The specials

DraftKings

SugarHouse Sportsbook

FanDuel

BetStars NJ

As always, BetStars offers a generous $50 free bet with no deposit and a $500 sign-up bonus, and a lucrative Parlay Bonus:

But you can also enjoy their Black Friday Boosts that run all the way through Cyber Monday.

Visit the BetStars homepage at noon on Black Friday for your first offer, and come back every hour between 12-4 p.m. to get Odds Boosts on the biggest sporting events.

888sport NJ

888sport NJ will give you $10 just for signing up with no deposit required, but if you sign up, they, too, offer an enticing bonus of up to $500.

Also be sure to check out 888sport NJ’s NCAA Basketball Challenge that will double payouts on parlays of at least 3 bets and odds of -200 or higher on college basketball games.

Trends to know

Chicago (7-3) at Detroit (4-6), 12:30, CBS

Photo credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears aren’t the only team with injury concerns ahead of this contest. Marvin Jones will miss another game, and running back Kerryon Johnson is out with a knee injury.

As of Wednesday morning, 59% of spread bets are on Chicago, but only 52% of the money backs the Bears. Some sharp money is on Detroit.

One more thing: Detroit has gone 4-1 ATS and straight-up on Thanksgiving since 2013.

Washington (6-4) at Dallas (5-5), 4:30, FOX

Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

At the time of this post, only 41% of spread bets are on Washington, but 59% of the money backs the Redskins, so it’s clear the big-money gamblers like getting the points in this division contest.

Atlanta (4-6) at New Orleans (9-1), 8:20, NBC

Photo credit: The Daily Advertiser-USA TODAY N

Currently, only 34% of point-spread bets back the Falcons, but an overwhelming 70% of the money likes the idea of backing an underdog with some big names on offense in this divisional contest.

I’ll take the under and hold my breath.

Those on the over should get it at FanDuel where it’s 59.5 (-110), and those on the under can grab it at BetStars where it’s set at 60 (-105).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER.

Full disclosure: We are an affiliate of legal New Jersey sports betting sites, so we may receive a commission if you use our links.

The post Your Full Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide appeared first on Crossing Broad.

Your Full Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide published first on https://footballhighlightseurope.tumblr.com/

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