#this is the most predictable final matchup I won’t lie

[hottestsantatournament]

THE HOTTEST SANTA TOURNAMENT FINAL

MATCHUP:

Rise of The Guardians (Alec Baldwin) VS. Klaus (JK Simmons)

THIS FINALE ONLY LASTS A DAY! PLEASE SPREAD THE GOOD CHEER AND SHARE THE POST!! MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!! Love you kisses

[junker-town]

The 4 spiciest opening round games in the 2019 NCAA tournament

Starring Ja Morant vs. Markus Howard.

The NCAA Tournament bracket has finally been revealed, and there’s a heckuva lot to look forward to. Zion Williamson is appointment watching regardless of opponent. Virginia as a No. 1 seed is has meme potential every single season we’re alive. Admiral Schofield and the Tennessee Volunteers are a likable group of veteran talents. But they’re likely to cruise by in the opening games.

The real matchups to watch will come between the teams seeded right in the middle of the bracket. The winners are bound to come in the final seconds with so little separating one side from another. Let’s take a gander at the bracket and see where the potential spiciest, hair-plucking, tv-screaming, temper tantrum-having matchups for bracket-havers lie, and examine what could make these games so great.

No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Murray State (West region)

May I interest you in a delicious matchup between the No. 6 and No. 8 scorers in the entire country? I can! Swell.

This is going to be a fast-paced game as opposing guards Markus Howard of Marquette and projected lottery pick Ja Morant of Murray State go bucket for bucket until the buzzer.

Howard is a dynamite scorer, averaging 25 points on 17 shots per game. He shoots 41 percent from three-point range. He leads his team in points, assists and steals and his performance will almost certainly dictate where the Golden Eagles go in the tourney.

That Markus Howard crossover...filthy. #MUBB #BETourney #BigEastTournament pic.twitter.com/D3Puxc7FpQ

— College Hoops Digest (@NCAAhoopsdigest) March 14, 2019

Morant is scoring 24.6 points per game for the lesser-known Racers, but you’ve most definitely seen his high-flying dunks and unbelievable athleticism. Like Howard, Morant also leads his team — and the entire country — in assists, with 10 per game.

Ja Morant splashing this down pic.twitter.com/LOX69nA4ig

— Get Hyped Sports (@GetHypedSport) March 11, 2019

This game will be decided between the better of two of the tournament’s biggest stars. Let’s go!

No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 Saint Mary’s (South Region)

The Wildcats aren’t the same team they were the past two years. They lost a considerable amount of talent to last year’s NBA draft including Jalen Brunson and tournament hero Donte DiVincenzo, and lost nine games this season. Their identity is still the same even if they aren’t as good at it though: a slow tempo with a focus on three-point shooting. Guess who follows a similar gameplan?

Only 20 teams in the nation run a slower tempo offense than Villanova, and Saint Mary’s is one of them at exactly one possession fewer per game, per KenPom. They don’t shoot the three-ball nearly as frequently (53.5 percent to 35 percent), but they do shoot it better (37.8 percent to 35.3 percent.)

With such a snail’s pace preferred by both sides, making those shots are going to be crucial. These teams are much more evenly matched than their seedings appear and could be a painfully slow, but very close chase to the finish.

No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Florida (West Region)

The Gators have played one of the most difficult schedules in all of college basketball, and their placement in the tournament might have hinged on beating the SEC Tournament top-seeded LSU Tigers. But that doesn’t mean Florida isn’t deserving, despite its 19-15 record.

Florida played 24 games out of 34 against top-100 teams in the country, per KenPom. Some of those games weren’t close, but a number were, including a three-point loss to Auburn, an overtime one-point loss to LSU, a five-point loss to TCU, a five-point loss to Oklahoma and a three-point loss to Mississippi State. The Gators hang right in there against tournament teams, using one of the best defenses in the tourney.

Nevada has experience on its side with three of its best scorers from last year’s Sweet 16 run, Jordan Caroline, Cody Martin and Caleb Martin returning, but Florida’s guards won’t make their lives easy. The Gators are the No. 16 team at forcing turnovers, per KenPom, and although Nevada is one of the best at taking care of the ball, it’s had it’s bad games.

In each of the Wolfpack’s four losses, they’ve turned the ball over 12-to-14 times, allowing six or seven steals. If anyone can shake them early, it’s a Florida team that steals the ball on 11 percent of defensive possessions. This game will feature an overmatched Florida using its pesky ways to throw Nevada of its game. Get ready to complain about the refs!

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 NC Central (East Region)

This game only happens if NC Central beat North Dakota State in its play-in game, and it’s only spicy for one reason. Ahead of the tournament drawing, NC Central head coach LeVelle Morton said, and I quote, “Some coaches will say ‘we’ll take on anyone! We’ll be ready!’ But I don’t want ANY part of playing Duke. Us playing against Zion would be like my 6-year-old son playing against me.”

Way to speak it into existence, coach.

It seem he won’t even be predicting a win over Duke, and maybe they’ll lose by 150. But if the Eagles win — or even come close — ... coach is going to have a lot of explaining to do.

[flauntpage]

Answers to Golden State and Cleveland Lie in the NBA's Upper-Middle Class

On Tuesday, I wrote about how the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Milwaukee Bucks could potentially break the hammerlock that Golden State and Cleveland currently have on the NBA. Those two are long shots, but other teams are positioned to disrupt the league's reigning duopoly as early as next season. There are two, in fact, and I'll be talking about both of them today.

The Washington Wizards and the Houston Rockets are part of the NBA's upper-middle class, which until now has produced little more than mildly annoying foils for the Cavs and the Warriors. But maybe, just maybe, these two teams can become serious threats in 2018.

Washington Wizards

Shortly after his Wizards were eliminated by the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals, Bradley Beal made a confident yet poorly timed comment about how petrified the defending champion Cavs should be of his team.

"Cleveland didn't want to see us," he said. "I always said that. I felt like that's the reason they didn't play us in the second round. They didn't want to see us in the second round. If they were going to go down, they were going to go down in the conference finals. They didn't want to go down in the second round."

On one hand, this came off as a feeble battle cry from a sore loser. How is Beal to be taken seriously after he made only 31.3 percent of his threes in the second round? (To be clear, Beal is awesome and shouldn't be blamed for Washington's demise, but he also doesn't look great claiming the team that demolished the team that his team lost to was shaking in their high-tops.)

On the other hand, maybe Beal has a point. Maybe the Wizards wouldn't have lost to the Cavs by 100 combined points over a five-game span like Boston did. Maybe their exuberant top-shelf star power would have been more formidable against LeBron James and Co.

Given that both Washington and Cleveland should remain fundamentally unchanged next season, the best way to analyze the future is to peek back at the recent past. Even though they went 1-2 against the Cavaliers during the regular season, the Wizards played them about even. Beal didn't take the floor in Washington's first loss way back in November, and the Wizards' second loss hinged on a say-your-prayers turnaround by James to send the game into overtime.

In the 73 minutes John Wall and Beal shared the floor, Washington outscored Cleveland by 2.0 points per 100 possessions. Neither team could guard the other, which has been a common theme over several matchups during these playoffs.

One thing working in Washington's favor is time. James will be 33 years old next season, and at some point his age is going to translate into a tiny step back. The Wizards, meanwhile, can reasonably hope for 27-year-old Wall, 23-year-old Beal, 23-year-old Otto Porter (assuming the Wizards bring him back—more on that in a second), and possibly even 28-year-old Markieff Morris all to come back as better versions of themselves, with head coach Scott Brooks on his second season in D.C.

Room to improve? Photo by Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Washington's bench is a concern, and largely the reason we just saw the Wizards flame out in the playoffs, but the front office has very few resources to improve it this summer. The Wizards will likely be in the luxury tax if Porter re-signs, which would leave mini-mid-level, biannual, and veteran's exceptions as their only available tools to fill the holes in those lineups. That's probably enough to go after guys like Michael Beasley, Omri Casspi, and Ray Felton, but those names hardly inspire confidence. Maybe Tomas Satoransky can give Washington decent minutes as a backup point guard. Maybe Ian Mahinmi can bounce back to have a healthy season. Or maybe not.

And yet, to reach the top of the Eastern Conference, it somehow seems less critical that the Wizards shore up their putrid reserves than ensuring that their best players can get even better. Wall is Washington's franchise player, but his jumper still has room to improve. Porter can get stronger, and perhaps receive an expanded offensive role. And Beal? His continued growth feels most crucial for this team's future, especially in a potential showdown against the Cavaliers.

It's hard to pinpoint any one specific area of Beal's game that needs to get better. He's already a sensational pick-and-roll playmaker who can create his own shot, rain fire off screens, and wreak havoc in transition. If one "weakness" was exposed in the playoffs, it was an inability to attack with his back to the basket. According to Synergy Sports, Beal finished only ten possessions with a post-up during the regular season. That number helps explain why the Celtics weren't terrified to have Isaiah Thomas guarding him in the playoffs, even if Beal ultimately dominated that individual matchup, but it won't dictate how Beal approaches off-season workouts.

"We'll do a little post game work, but he's not taller or longer than most of the guys that guard him, so that's not to his advantage," Beal's trainer Drew Hanlen told VICE Sports. "We'll add turnarounds over both shoulders. He already has a great face-up game."

Beal also plans to work on different ways to draw more fouls and create space off the dribble behind the three-point line. This should sound horrifying to opposing teams. Beal's True Shooting percentage was already in the high 60s in two games against Cleveland this year, with heavy minutes and a usage rate that was slightly above his season average. Him performing at that level in a seven-game series isn't inconceivable.

Even if they don't land a big fish to lift their bench this summer, Washington already has enjoyed a bit of success with lineups beyond its starting five that match up nicely against Cleveland's smaller groups. With Morris at the five, Porter at the four, and Kelly Oubre on the wing, the Wizards outscored opponents by 15.8 points per 100 possessions in just over 50 minutes this season. (The same group was barely utilized in the playoffs.)

The Wizards should really like their core. It led them to a 49-win season, and they were a few unlucky bounces and a Kelly Olynyk podium game from the Eastern Conference Finals. Just imagine what can happen if everyone stays healthy, and Beal leaps from awesome to unstoppable.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets were built to trade uppercuts with the Warriors. From top to bottom, this year's team felt engineered in a lab to dethrone last year's 73-win juggernaut.

The recipe starts and ends with an ideal supporting cast for James Harden, one that provides space for his drives and several outlets once he knifes into the paint. It was as fatal an offense as the NBA's ever seen.

We'll never know how close (or far) this experiment came to actually taking the Warriors down, however, because Houston flamed out in the conference semifinals against a San Antonio Spurs team that didn't have Kawhi Leonard in Game 6. It was one of the more perplexing series finales in recent memory, but extrapolating too much from any one game (or series) can be foolhardy.

The Rockets finished the 2016-17 season with the NBA's second-best offense and third-highest point differential. They deserved the "championship contender" label they wore for most of the year, and general manager Daryl Morey would be wise to roll back a majority of those pieces for another run.

A second season in Mike D'Antoni's system, with a full year for Lou Williams to acclimate himself and 23-year-old Clint Capela to grow, could lead to an even more diabolical attack. Granted, Nene will likely move on, but that could very well just open up more minutes for Capela, Montrezl Harrell, or Sam Decker to make the most of a new opportunity. Every other complementary Rockets part is under contract for at least one more year.

On the other hand, Morey may feel like accentuating Harden's strengths can only get the Rockets so far. Perhaps more star power is required to outclass a seemingly unbeatable foe. Houston doesn't have enough assets to outbid other teams for an All-Star on the trade market, but it can clear cap space and go all-in for one in free agency.

More help wanted? Photo by Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

The most intriguing target is Blake Griffin. At first glance, the five-time All-Star might seem badly miscast in D'Antoni's offense, but for the purpose of lessening Harden's burden and offering some variance to an attack that's increasingly predictable as a playoff series develops, Griffin can unlock so much more than meets the eye.

No, he can't spot-up beyond the arc or consistently threaten defenses as a pick-and-pop weapon, but his presence would open up more doors for Harden, beyond conducting high pick-and-rolls on every single possession.

Picture Harden as the screener for Griffin, a catch-and-shoot option on the weak side, or a cutter who occupies the defense's attention while Griffin operates in the post. Not having to be the architect of every open-floor opportunity would drastically simplify Harden's life. According to Synergy Sports, Harden turned it over on 28.9 percent of all possessions where he was the ball handler in transition. This ranked 77th among the 85 players who led at least 50 fast breaks last season. Griffin only turned it over 13.6 percent of the time and placed 11th in points per possession.

Much like James turning the keys over to Kyrie Irving for lengthy stretches here and there, situations where Harden can give the ball to Griffin and get out of the way could refresh other areas of his game.

On the defensive end, Griffin would be an undeniable upgrade in every way. He isn't Draymond Green, but opponents don't go out of their way to hunt him down, as the Spurs tirelessly did to Anderson in the second round. Griffin can switch screens, and he would make opponents think twice about sticking a smaller wing on him when he sets a pick for Harden.

Against the Warriors, Houston could trot out a Griffin, Harden, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, and Patrick Beverley unit that matches up pretty well with Golden State's most versatile groups.

The Rockets could clear enough space to afford Griffin's max deal by attaching their 2018 first-round pick to Ryan Anderson's contract and letting a team like the Brooklyn Nets, the Philadelphia 76ers, or the Timberwolves absorb the three years and approximately $61 million left on it. And without dipping into the tax, they could stock their bench with a plug-and-play marksman at the veteran's minimum like Anthony Morrow, and maybe even add someone like Kyle Korver with the room exception (that's probably not enough, but signing him to a two-year deal near $10 million makes it slightly more likely than impossible).

Replacing Anderson with Griffin would change how the Rockets play, but that might be what's necessary to finally loosen the Warriors' stranglehold in the West.

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Answers to Golden State and Cleveland Lie in the NBA's Upper-Middle Class published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

[junker-town]

68 percent (sooo close) of experts are picking the Patriots to win Super Bowl 53

About two of every three experts are leaning toward a sixth ring for Tom Brady.

Here at SB Nation, we’re big believers in the New England Patriots. All but one of our experts and the OddsShark computer predicted a sixth Super Bowl ring for Tom Brady and another duck boat parade through the tangled streets of Boston.

Those picks were a combination of several factors — New England’s blocking, the Rams’ lack of championship experience, reverse jinxes, the slowly creeping inevitability of Brady dad-dancing amid a cloud of confetti — along with 21 weeks of following each team closely as they took their winding paths to the biggest game of the year.

We’re not the only ones with predictions. Experts across the NFL landscape have made their prognostications in advance of Sunday’s game, and the common theme between all these picks is a strong lean toward the Pats. New England was a heavy favorite for bettors immediately after the AFC title game drew to a close, and that trend has rippled through the media as well.

So who is picking the Pats to add a sixth NFL championship banner to their stadium? And who thinks the Rams will stake their claim as one of the league’s elites?

ESPN

ESPN went above and beyond, polling 97 employees for a comprehensive list of picks. 59 of those experts picked New England, while 38 rolled with Sean McVay’s Rams. The most common score was a 31-27 outcome, but former quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is predicting an instant classic. His prediction? Patriots 41, Rams 40.

Sports Illustrated

Sports Illustrated turned to 14 writers under its The MMQB masthead for their predictions. 10 leaned toward Brady winning his sixth Super Bowl ring — and nine see him finishing the night with his fifth Super Bowl MVP honor. Sony Michel was the other Patriot to earn an MVP vote.

Yahoo Sports

Eight writers, one prediction: a Patriots Super Bowl win. No one thinks New England will win by more than four points, however.

The Ringer

Robert Mays breaks down every key matchup here ... and sees LA escaping with a three-point win.

CBS Sports

CBS also trotted out eight experts for their picks. Everyone but John Breech picked the Pats.

USA Today

USA Today asked five writers for their prediction. Only Rams Wire editor Cameron DaSilva backed LA.

Sporting News

SN snuck a prediction at the end of their game preview, suggesting the Pats won’t only win, but they’ll cover, too.

NJ.com

The voice of Jersey posted a clean sweep for the Patriots, 5-0.

Donald Trump

Here’s what the President of the United States had to say about Sunday’s matchup during a pregame interview aired on CBS.

Interviewer: “You’re a Patriots fan, we know that. Are you predicting a win at the Super Bowl this year?”

Trump: “They have a very special owner and coach and certainly they have I guess the best quarterback of all time, so I would say they would win. As the expression goes, who knows? I hope it’s a great game.”

interviewer: “You’re still betting on Tom Brady to pull this off?”

“I am. You have the combination of the coach also, who’s the best, and the owner. It’s a great chemistry on that team. A team needs chemistry, and they certainly have it, so I think they’ll do well, but we’ll see what happens.”

Jose Canseco

I just time traveled into the future Rams win 27 to 20

— Jose Canseco (@JoseCanseco) February 3, 2019

Why would Jose lie about something as important as time travel?

Our final tally

Experts (and presidents) picking the Patriots: 101 (67.8%)

Experts (and Bash Brothers) picking the Rams: 48 (32.2%)

[junker-town]

Top daily fantasy football plays for Week 17 of the NFL season

With Week 17 of the NFL season upon us, we take a look at some of the best values to be found on Draftkings and FanDuel, and some players worth fading.

SB Nation brings you the top Daily Fantasy options each week through the regular season and into the playoffs. This is the most difficult week to break down, with so many star players sitting and so many unknows thrust into big roles. Nevertheless, here are the top value plays of the week, with an eye toward low ownership and high upside.

Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons ($6,800 DK, $8,400 FD)

Right now, we want players who will deliver four quarters of volume, and nowhere is that more likely than in the Falcons-Panthers game, where playoff berths and seedings are all on the line. Newton disappointed last week in a smash spot against Tampa Bay, but he continued to make a difference as a runner, and the Falcons have been burned by running quarterbacks all season. Newton ran for 86 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries in the first meeting with Atlanta. Newton has 14 rushes in each of the past two weeks.

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD)

The unstoppable Jimmy G has the Bay Area overflowing with optimism for the 2018 season after knocking off Jacksonville last week for his fourth victory in a row. With each victory, Garoppolo’s DK point total has increased, topping at 23 points against the Jags. Now he gets a Rams team that is calling off the dogs in advance of the playoffs, making Garoppolo a terrific option once again.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers ($6,300 DK, $7,800 FD)

No playoffs on the line here, but the Lions are going with their top guns, and that’s great news for Stafford, who gets to take target practice against a decimated Packers secondary that has allowed three passing scores a game over the past month.

Kirk Cousins, Washington at New York Giants ($6,200 DK, $7,600 FD)

This game is all personal for Cousins, who is the top free agent quarterback in the 2017 offseason. This is Cousins’ final tryout for prospective suitors, and the Giants defense is more than willing to lend an assist. Consider, Cousins dropped nearly 24 DK points on a clearly superior Denver defense last week.

Discount Darling: Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans ($5,500 DK, $6,600 FD)

There are a handful of sub-5K guys getting starts this week (Pat Mahomes, Paxton Lynch, Landry Jones) and none of them hold any appeal for me, especially since most, if not all, of these subs will be missing their primary receivers. Brissett gets a great matchup with all his weapons against a terrible defense at home in a weather-neutral game where points will be scored. Brissett had his second-best fantasy game of the season (23 DK) against the Texans in Week 9. He can easily do it again.

Avoid: Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys ($6,400 DK, $7,600 FD)

The Eagles are treating this game like a preseason game, with the starters likely not playing more than a half, if that much. There are simply too many viable four-quarter options to make playing Foles even a remotely good idea.

Also consider: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks; Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints; Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills.

Running back

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD)

Remember all the preseason talk about the Bills riding McCoy ragged this season? Well, as it turned out, McCoy had 20 carries and five targets in the same game just four times. But one of the four came against Miami two weeks ago, resulting in McCoy’s fourth-highest fantasy total. With a playoff berth on the line, there’s no reason for the Bills not to load up on McCoy. His high-volume opportunity makes him the best high-priced option on the board.

Kenyan Drake, Dolphins vs. Bills ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

The Bills are dead last in points allowed to running backs, and Dion Lewis took full advantage last Sunday. Now, it’s Drake, who has been brilliant almost every week for Miami since Damien Williams got hurt, who gets a shot at ruining Buffalo’s season. Drake had 23 DK points in his first meeting with the Bills.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,500 DK, $5,800 FD)

DeMarco Murray has a torn MCL, and though the team was holding out hope that Murray could miraculously play on Sunday, he was ruled out on Friday. Henry is going to get the bulk of the work against a Jacksonville team that might be resting players throughout the game. Although Henry has stumbled in previous must-play scenarios, he is, without question, a must play.

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions ($5,200 DK, $6,700 FD)

Williams had his best weeks of the season when Brett Hundley was quarterback. This week, Williams faces the Lions, who are allowing the second-most points to running backs in PPR leagues, which makes him a great draw in DraftKings’ full-point PPR contests. It’s a tough sell, considering the way the Packers’ season has crashed and burned, but the numbers don’t lie.

Discount Darling: Samaje Perine, Washington at New York Giants ($4,400 DK, $6,400 FD)

Perine topped 100 yards just twice this season, but one of those times came against the Giants on Thanksgiving night. He is back to carrying the ball between 14-17 times per game and still gets a handful of pass targets. The Giants allow 100-yard games to running backs pretty much every week, so Perine has a great chance for another big outing.

Avoid: Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD)

Gordon’s availability is really up in the air right now, as the Chargers have added a running back off the practice squad as insurance in case Gordon’s ankle injury keeps him out of this must-win game. Even in a great spot, it’s too much uncertainty to tolerate with so many cheaper, high-upside backs out there. If Gordon is ruled out, Branden Oliver is a terrific value play at 4K, which could be paired with a high-priced replacement at another position in a late-swap maneuver.

Also consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys; Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints; Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers.

Wide receiver

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers ($8,200 DK, $8,400 FD)

How disappointing has Jones been this season? He’s only topped 20 DK points four times this season. One of those weeks did come against the Panthers in Week 9, when he caught 6 of 12 targets for 118 yards. If he actually holds onto the 39-yard touchdown pass this time, he will be a DFS hero.

Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams ($6,600 DK, $6,900 FD)

Hopefully the recency bias is strong with this one. Goodwin has been Jimmy Garoppolo’s top target in his four games as starting QB, including 25 targets combined in Weeks 14 and 15. But Goodwin predictably struggled last week against Jacksonville. That won’t be an issue this week, with the Rams resting key players. Goodwin is back on track for another big day.

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers ($6,500 DK, $7,300 FD)

The Lions are not resting their starters despite being knocked out of playoff contention. The Packers back end is a sieve. Jones has owned the Packers in his career and dropped a 7-107-2 on them in Week 9. He should have his way one more time at home.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD)

When Hilton played against the Texans in Houston in Week 9, he put up a 5-175-2 line. Like Goodwin, Hilton is another receiver on the verge of 1,000 yards and there won’t be a lick of defense played in this one. And, as we know, Hilton always plays better at home.

Discount Darling: Josh Doctson, Washington at New York Giants ($4,400 DK, $5,800 FD)

In all honesty, I hate suggesting Doctson for anything other than a sit. I just don’t think he’s very good. When you get targeted 13 times and catch two, as happened last week, that’s not the mark of a great receiver. But, he does have three touchdowns in his past five games, and one of those came against the Giants, who have arguably the worst pass defense on the planet. Kirk Cousins is going to chuck the ball all day, so maybe, just maybe, if Doctson gets 13 targets, he’ll catch more than two of them.

Avoid: Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns ($7,300 DK, $7,300 FD)

We already know Ben, Bell and Brown are not playing. Do we really know for how long Juju is going to be out there? And do we have a lot of confidence in Landry Jones to get him the ball enough to take advantage? Those are two questions that give me enough reason to pass on a player carrying that much salary.

Also consider: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers; Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals; Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins.

Tight end

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans ($4,700 DK, $5,400 FD)

Like Hilton, Doyle had a big week against the Texans in Week 9, with eight catches. Doyle has 12 catches on 18 targets the past two weeks, and there’s little reason to think the volume will subside in a game that won’t feature much defensive resistance.

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD)

Ebron is arguably the hottest tight end in football right now after his 5-83-1 line last week, his second straight game with a touchdown. His good times should keep right on rolling this week against the decimated Packers.

Antonio Gates, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders ($4,200 DK, $5,700 FD)

Gates turned back time last week, lighting up the Jets for a 6-81-1 line. He should be the main red-zone focus this week, especially with Melvin Gordon playing hurt. Gates’ salary jumped after his big game last week, but remarkably there are few surer bets at the position.

Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins ($3,700 DK, $5,600 FD)

Clay is back to being Tyrod Taylor’s top receiver, garnering 19 targets over the past two weeks. All he’s missing is a touchdown to make him a top-tier play, but that is a very real possibility in a game the Bills have to have to make the playoffs.

Discount Darling: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams ($2,800 DK, $4,600 FD)

Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo finally connected for a touchdown last week, as Kittle looks to finish his rookie season on a high note. Kittle has had two of his best three games of the season, fantasy-wise in the past two weeks, so he’s trending high, even as his salary remains enticingly low.

Avoid: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys ($6,000 DK, $7,100 FD)

The Eagles are only playing their starters preseason minutes, and that’s too few at too steep a price to justify using Ertz in this spot.

Also consider: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers; Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks; Vernon Davis, Washington.

Defense

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders ($3,600 DK, $4,900 FD)

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD)

Discount Darling: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD)

[junker-town]

This high school class has a better way of predicting March Madness

And it’s a lot more fun, too.

Every March, millions of Americans fill out an NCAA tournament bracket. Whether they know what they’re doing or not, most fans enjoy competing in pools and against their coworkers. But what if I told you there’s an even better way to enjoy college basketball’s most thrilling few weeks?

Montgomery Blair High School in Silver Spring, Md., has found the key to staying involved in March, even when your teams all lose.

“When you pick brackets, when your team loses, you’re out,” Stein explained. “This way, we’re always modeling the next game.”

In the school’s sports statistics class, students use math to predict the results of every possible NCAA tournament game – and document it all on their class blog, FiveThirtyBlair.

“It makes teaching the math a lot easier and much more exciting,” said the class’s teacher, David Stein.

The class is divided into groups of students. Each group identifies variables based on their research that are important variables to determine success in the tournament, like RPI, offensive and defensive efficiency, win percentage, the number of times a coach has appeared in the tournament, and more. The students then use logistic regression to produce the probability of team winning any given matchup.

Rather than making a bracket, these students are calculating the probabilities for all 1,263 possible games before the tournament starts. The stronger a prediction, the more they can get penalized in their scoring if they’re wrong. If a group predicted a 60 percent chance for Duke to win, for example, they wouldn’t be scored too high if Duke won, but it wouldn’t hurt them as much if Duke lost. While the probabilities for winning in the first round are more confident, they become weaker as the rounds continue. This statistics-based method of predicting the tournament keep the competition fierce til the very end.

“Even though Villanova has the highest chance of winning [the entire tournament], it’s still only 22.8 percent,” said one student group in their first blog post before the tournament. “So there’s a 77.2 percent chance that a team other than Villanova wins. That’s the beauty of college basketball, the parity.”

Nearly every group in this year’s competition used RPI as one of their variables. Check Bill Self, the team in the lead, based its model off of two factors: experienced coaches and RPI, two factors that consistently predicted winners year after year, they wrote.

“The team that did very well last year relied on offensive and defensive efficiency,” Stein said. “RPI is also a good predictor.” What isn’t so good for March Madness predictions? Win percentage, Stein said.

Most of the students picked Duke to take it all, which clearly won’t happen. But even when the Blue Devils were favored to win in some models, it was only a 29 percent chance. So while the numbers don’t lie, they also don’t tell the whole truth, either.

Heading into the Final Four, team Check Bill Self is still leading the class and ranked No. 20 on Kaggle, a data website that the class competes on with hundreds of competitors. The second-place team in the class is fairly far behind on Kaggle, coming in at No. 115. While they incorrectly predicted (like most of us) that Baylor and Arizona would be making it to the Elite Eight, with a 66.5 percent chance and 73 percent chance respectively, they predicted the other six teams correctly. But even with those correct predictions, if they only gave the teams a lower percentage chance of winning, their score won’t increase a ton.

Another team, the Ali-Oops, correctly predicted from the start that Oregon would make the Final Four, which they admitted surprised them. They also surprisingly calculated that South Carolina had a higher chance of making it to the Final Four over Florida.

The top group gave UNC a bit better odds for the champs over the Fighting Ducks and calculated that Gonzaga the highest chance by far to making it to the championship, at about 30 percent. Sorry, Gamecocks.