#this is prob the worst blog that has ever blogged at this rate like what do u mean i.ori from c.harisma house is friends with g.riffith-

[tugpull]

this isnt a griffith blog! why are u rbing griffith and tagging it self! This is false advertisement! I sentence u to death by locust!

[guccifloralsuits]

girl.........when u gonna rec some cm fics??? help a sis out!!

These are all Moreid, Hotchreid or no main pairing so heads up lol. I don’t read self-insert. I’ll try to tag the tumblr author’s blogs i know but i’ll prob miss a few (srry) 

GENERAL WARNING: please read the tags & ratings bc some of these have multiple TWs. I’ll try to tag here but also CM has some...uh. dark content. Graphic depictions of violence & ya know, murder. So be safe & take care of yourself.

Completed Works/One-Shots:

You Reap What You Sow by BloodiedRose // One-Shot // 6k // Elle & Spencer friendship, morcia side-pairing // took me a sec to get into but holy FUCK

Elle Greenaway suddenly transfers to the D.C. department. She tries to keep her head down, but that's hard to do when she has to get used to a new city, adopts her traumatised coworker, and is being haunted by her own personal Graveling.

A Dead Like Me au (but no knowledge of the show is required).

The Ghosts That Should-Have-Been by Kibbers // Completed // 17k // Hotchreid // TW: Suicide Attempt // The writing on this is insane. Kinda abstract but in a way which just works. I actually cried reading this

Hotch said, “You’re keeping score, just like Owen.”

If Spencer had been keeping score, the world was winning. The rolled eyes, the disinterested gazes, the way they spoke to him only when they wanted something. Only when they wanted notebooks read at an inhuman rate or statistics they could use for the profile, for a bet, for the delight of having them at all. If Reid was keeping score, he had the right to do so if only to prove to himself that he deserved to feel a little hurt. He deserved to step in front of a bullet to save a kid that felt the same way he did.

an ice white candle, lit by Lilaciliraya // One-shot // 2.5k // Moreid // TW: implied childhood sexual abuse

He fails his gun qualification because the administrator is male this time and he stands just a little too close. He hates that he is 23 years old and he cannot stop the way his hands shake in the presence of an unlikely possibility.

(or) The hardest thing that Spencer Reid has ever had to do is learn how to stay warm.

Visiting Hours by Word_Clay // one-shot // 5k // no main pairing // TW: threats of rape, dissociation, homicidal ideation // prison-arc, so well written

Getting more and more intense. Got to fall deeper in to beat them. I’ve lost friends before, but not like this; not in a box where I have no control—or do I?Starting to think like them; starting to survive like them. I’m here because I made a choice.What if that means I don’t get out alive?

Indispensable by Deejaymil // Completed // 40k // Hotchreid // this fic wrecked me lol it’s fine im fine

Dave's a damn good guardian angel, one of the best. And being one of the best means he gets the worst jobs: the important, the clumsy, the reckless, the difficult-to-keep-alive. The indispensables. But he's never before quite had anyone like Spencer Reid.

Within the first two seconds of meeting his new charge, the kid gets hit by a car; it really only goes downhill from there. His only consolation is that Emily is having just as much trouble with her new charge, Aaron Hotchner.

If only they could somehow combine their assignments...

He’s All That by rchr // One-shot // no pairing // 6k // criminally underrated i’ve read it like 70 times // bonus for Morgan’s POV // Garcia being a queen

"One does not simply make over the good Dr. Reid. A true makeover is all about sowing the seeds."

Sunflowers and Daisies by Agib, starsandsupernovae // @ag-ib & @rxsienbloom  // Completed // 12.5k // Moreid // Penelope being a queen (again) // I’m always a bitch for a Hanahaki Disease AU and this one especially

Derek is, without question, unfailingly in love with Doctor Spencer Reid.

Blueberry Syrup by dilaudiddreams // @m0rcia // One-shot // 1.5k // Moreid // Fluffy af actually all comfort & barely any hurt //

"Listen, uh...do you think I could maybe...take you out...sometime?”

Spencer frowns. “What do you mean?”

“Snipe you. No. What do you think? To dinner or something.”

Spencer wakes up in Derek Morgan's bed. He tries to sneak out without waking him.

He fails, and he winds up staying for breakfast out of common courtesy (and maybe something else).

Set season 1. Tooth-rotting sweet.

Following a Bright Shiny Thing by travelinthedark // Hotchreid but genuinely the whole team’s dynamic is what shines in this // One-shot // 5k // yes it has a lot of kudos // yes it deserves all of them

Wherein Reid feels like 6th grade girl, the girls squeel from time to time, and there are little blue drinks. 

WIPS I’m Keeping Up With: 

Dreams are Only Blue by themetaphorgirl // @themetaphorgirl​ // Alex Blake & Spencer Reid // last update: first week of October // TW: child neglect

AU. Nine-year-old Spencer Reid is brilliant, but he's too young to fully grasp the trauma threatening to bury him. Alex Blake buried her nine-year-old son and accepted that she just wasn't meant to be a mother. The BAU team takes on a case that ends up throwing them together, and Spencer is sent to live with Alex and her husband, and everything changes.

(this is the Spencer Blake AU)

Where Have You Bean All My Life? By agib // @ag-ib // Moreid // last update: the end of September

It's rare enough that anyone on the team has to take on undercover work for more than a single night, and even more uncommon that the CIA happens to be splitting a case with the FBI.

So, really, Morgan shouldn't complain. But he does, and he's wholeheartedly dedicated to hating this assignment up until the damn college kid, who looks like he survives on coffee alone, bustles into the café.

Full Series I Rec:

Undercover Pretty Boy by 898700 (ghostwriter) // Completed // Moreid leaning? // Undercover CIA model AU which inspired the whump moreid 5k I have written & will maybe one of these days post (rippppppp) 

Ag-ib’s Whumptober // Ongoing // general TW bc dark themes for Whumptober

Appalachian’s Whumptober // @appalachianapologies​ // Ongoing // general TW bc dark themes for Whumptober

Happy reading!

ps: I actually wrote a moreid (Ex-CIA undercover model!Reid) one shot too if that’s something you’d be interested in!!

[dreamiehrs]

20 questions tag!

tagged by: @parfaiitjoon <33 ty for the tag!

what do you prefer to be called name-wise?

jenna and jen are both good w me!

when’s your birthday?

December 28th, 2002

where do you live?

the east coast of the U.S.

what are 3 things you’re doing now?

listening to music, talking to myself, and doing this tag game LMAO

what are 4 fandoms that piqued your interest recently?

hmmm.... the boyz, bnha, bungou stray dogs, & I think that’s all tbh?? I’ve been talking abt anime a lot w my friends recently (esp bnha lol) and bsd has been everywhere on my fyp recently. so yeah

how have you been coping w/ the pandemic?

honestly, at first it was pretty okay and/or easy bc I had a feeling we were gonna be put under quarantine anyways. school assignments were easy bc I was used to the classes already. summer went pretty well as well (honestly it was probs one of the best summers ever LMAO for me at least). then when late Aug/early Sep hit, everything kind of went downhill bc school had started back up, and I had (and still have) to teach myself the material for all my classes. school is on my mind like 24/7 too LMAO i can never escape it (aka i’m stressed)

a song you can’t stop listening to?

I have multiple:

the stealer - the boyz

haunt, the cartoon heart - bear ghost

guess who - monsta x

up no more - twice

nectar - wayv

recommend a movie?

parasite!

how old are you?

17

do you work/go to school/college/other?

yeah I’m a high school senior

do you prefer heat or cold?

def the cold since I literally feel like I’m melting into a puddle during the summertime here (it gets so hot here in the summertime pls help I hate it)

a fact others may not know about you?

uhmmm when I was younger my grandparents owned a small boat, and we would go boating often w/ family (and I hated it when my grandpa would put the boat on plane like- WHY DO WE HAVE TO GO SO FAST)

are you shy?

Y E S. however I have to force myself to not be shy in certain situations (like ordering a drink from Starbucks or smthing... or like if I need to ask a question in class lol). after I get used to ppl, though, I generally start to open up more and become more social w them. I can still be shy and/or quiet sometimes even after that, tho (in conclusion im just super quiet)

what are your preferred pronouns?

she/her :)

do you have any pet peeves?

I. have. so. many. pet. peeves. there’s like an entire list at this rate lol. but I’ll save time and just say two for now: being interrupted and when ppl don’t respect my personal space.

what’s your favorite form of -dere?

tsundere

rate your life out of 1 to 10, w/ 1 being the worst & 10 the best possible life:

eh I’ll say a 5/10

what’s your main blog?

this one :)

any side blogs?

yup! @dreamieficrecs & @eboysung (that skz writing blog is literally dead. i’m so inactive on it)

what’s something ppl should know before becoming friends w/ you?

you’re gonna have to deal w me either being hella antisocial or the most social person on earth. there’s no in-between. I can be pretty awkward at first, but be prepared to see multiple sides of me when I become comfortable with you lol

tagging: @philosopher-of-fandoms @theleemark @softsungchan @florence-cvrt (only if you want to ofc <3)

[madelynsstuff]

Thank you for tagging me @theannecordeliashirley!

1. What do you prefer to be called namewise?

I don’t care that much lol. Madelyn, Maddie, Mads

2. When is your Birthday?

11th of July :) I’m 21 this year 🎉

3. Where do you live?

Australia

4. Three things you're doing right now

Watching YouTube, Maths assignment kind of lol, doing this I guess

5. Four fandoms that piqued your interest?

I’m not sure tbh

6. Four things I'm a fan of though?

Atm I’m mostly into Aogg, friends, fantastic beasts & sherlock

7. How has the pandemic been treating you?

Fine lol. I’m in a part of Australia that has had like 0-very few cases since June last year so we’ve been living pretty normal lives

8.  A song you can't stop listening to

Hmmm. We’ll go with The Boxer which is the one song that I listen to and immediately hit replay on, I’m not joking

9. How old are you?

20

10.  Do you prefer hot or cold?

Cold 10000000%, Queensland summers suck, it’s hot and humid not dry. Dry heats I can deal with but humidity is my worst enemy. We have dry winters though so I’m constantly moisturising in winter haha

11. One fact others may not know about you

I play ukulele

12. Pronouns?

Don’t subscribe to this, I’m a woman, end of story

13. Biggest pet peeves?

Mouth noises, please stop

14. What is your favorite "dere" type?

No idea what this is

15. Rate your life from 1-10

9 probs. I don’t have anything to complain about

16. What's your main blog?

@gilbertsannegirl

17. Is there something people need to know about you before becoming friends?

I’m probably one of the most introverted people you will ever meet and I take probably years to actually crack open, hence why I haven’t really made any friends since I left school

Tagging whoever :)

[bme-girl]

University asks

from this blog

How far along are you in your studies? About to start the 4th/5th year of my undergrad program. So close, yet so far lol

How far do you plan on pursuing academia? I want to get my PhD and maybe I’ll do some post-doc work after that?

What made you want to attend university? My mom wasn’t able to attend in her home country and my dad got his Bachelor’s on his dad’s GI Bill. They allowed me to see how there are some limits without it and how education in this country is your ticket to money and living comfortably. 

What do you study? Biomedical Engineering + Chemical/Biological Engineering 

What do you wish to accomplish by studying at university? The end goal is to contribute to the knowledge in the field and have an impact on the community by inspiring underrepresented youth like me

What do you want to do with your degree? Be a researcher and teach in some capacity 

What’s your dream job? Being a researcher and influencer for Latinx youth in STEM

Has university been what you expected it to be? Tbh, I don’t think so even though I didn’t really know what to expect. I’ve learned SO much along the way that no one had the knowledge to tell me when before uni

What’s the most important thing you have learned about yourself at university? That I’m strong af, I can do whatever I want to in life–literally. And not to compare yourself to others

What surprised you the most about university? The types of friends I made, people I met, and places I went bc of opportunities through uni

What classes are you taking this/next semester? For fall 2020, I am taking Chemical Engineering Design 1 (not truly a design class. more like ethics, safety, etc.), Transport Phenomena in Biomedical Eng, Separation Processes, Biochemistry, and an Independent Study.

What has been the most interesting class you’ve taken? This past semester I took a biomedical eng project-based course and it was LIT af, very challenging but projects were super realistic and interesting

What has been your favourite class you’ve taken? Same course as 12^ like it made me realize my true style of learning and working and it was difficult but so so cool

What is your favourite professor like? Haha, same prof as 12 & 13^^ he was laid back, challenging, young and tech-savvy. More than anything, he was there if you just needed someone to talk to. He didn’t ‘bend’ rules but he knew what it’s like to be a student with limited resources and no super-human abilities. Just a cool guy I’d grab a drink with

If you have to write a thesis, what are you going to write it on? I will have to provide a written report for the independent study so I’m gonna ask if it can be like a thesis. It’ll probs be on something like improving multi-modal neuroimaging data fusion using machine learning

What is your weird academic niche? I’m not really sure. Sometimes I feel like I am my own niche? Lmao. I don’t really know how to answer this tbh 

What’s your favourite thing about academia? That honesty and integrity are highly valued and people just like wondering about things on a deeper level and bigger scale and have conversations about it

What’s your least favourite thing about academia? That it’s toxic: not as diverse, kinda bureaucratic, research matters more than ability to teach (in the US)

Would you go to a different university if you had to choose again? Yes and no: instead of going to a different uni then transferring to where I am now, I would 100% just have gone to the one I’m at now in the first place

Would you choose a different subject if you had to choose again? I don’t think so

If you couldn’t study the subject you study now, what would you study? Software Engineering or Comp Sci

What is your favourite course style? More applied learning, like projects. Not as exam heavy.

Theoretical or practical? AHHH! Both

Best book you’ve had to read for a course? Numerical Methods in MATLAB for Engineers 

Worst book you’ve had to read for a course? Molecular Physical Chemistry for Engineers by Yates and Johnson OMFG LITERAL TRASH, even our instructor hated it 

Favourite online resource? YouTube lol– broad but legit the best way to learn ANYTHING

The topic of the best essay you’ve written? I have a problem where everything I wrote in the past I now see as really bad bc my writing is always evolving. Most recent essay–maternal mortality rates in the US and race gaps within

Would you ever consider getting a phd? I am indeed considering haha

Who is doing the most interesting research in your field at the moment? In my research, Vince Calhoun or Danilo Bzdok. In my major, I’m not sure

Do you have any minors? I haven’t declared it officially, but I think I can achieve a math minor my 5th year

What is subject you wish your university taught but doesn’t? I don’t blame them cause it’s just now gaining more popularity, but like a strictly computational biology/biostatistics subject would be amazing

What is an area of your subject you wish your university taught but doesn’t? Same as 31^

The best advice anyone has ever given you about university? Do everything, don’t hold back. An opportunity can come from the smallest of things

Do you care about your grades? Yeah, but it’s not everything

Do you think you study enough? Sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t

How did your attitude towards studying and school change between high school and university? Uni hit me like a truck bc my high school was not the best. I learned to live and breathe studying, how to learn, how to manage my time, and my attitude is more serious and business-minded, but also have crazy fun in the right time and place

What do you do to rewind? Like to unwind? exercise, make music, watch movies, hit the hot tub

Best tip for making friends at university? Be yourself and be honest :)

Are you involved in any clubs/societies/extracurriculars? President for a diversity student org and I do intramural sports!

Have you done or are you planning on doing any internships? I’ve completed one research internship and I hope to do another next summer.

What is an interesting subject that you would never study yourself? Physics probably lol

What has been your favourite thing about university so far? The people, the location of my uni, the learning

What is your plan B career? Work in industry after undergrad, probably in biotech

Do you ever regret your choice of subject or university? Not really

Do you ever regret going to university? Hell no

How do you study? I try to vary it– I’ll read, do a crap ton of practice problems, do a study group with a lot of talking and teaching each other concepts, watch videos from other sources

What do you wish you’d done differently in your first year? Not been a student-athlete

What things do you think you did right in your first year? Was honest with myself 

What are your thoughts on Academia? It can be good and bad, and it’s up to us as the next generation to change the bad :)

Strangest university tip you have? Hmmmmm... Don’t assume all your advisers/administration/profs know what you’re truly capable of. (not strange, but I don’t think it’s that common)

[scrumptiousdonutangel]

45-85

45: What’s the worst injury you’ve ever had?

One time I jumped 8 feet straight down and screwed up my ankle really badly, I never went to the doctor but it hurt and was swollen for like two weeks.

46: Have you ever caught a butterfly?

I actually once had a butterfly land on me and refuse to leave for a good hour until I freaked out and made my sister take it off.

47: Do you have any obsessions right now?

not really? 

48: What’s your sexual orientation?

If I have to put a label on it then Bisexual

49: Ever had a rumour spread about you?

Probably XD

50: Do you believe in magic?

In some forms and ways

51: Do you tend to hold grudges against people who have done you wrong?

No but I DO hold grudges against people who do wrong to the people I care about

52: What is your astrological sign?

Dragon :P

53: Do you save money or spend it?

I save it or spend it hanging out with friends/getting presents for friends

54: What’s the last thing you purchased?

my big knit sweater I love so much

55: Love or lust?

hard question, but I guess love?

56: In a relationship?

Not at the moment

57: How many relationships have you had?

uno

58: Can you touch your nose with your tongue?

nope

59: Where were you yesterday?

at a party

60: Is there anything pink within 10 feet of you?

yeps

61: Are you wearing socks right now?

no

62: What’s your favourite animal?

CATS

63: What is your secret weapon to get someone to like you?

I usually just like them and am super nice to them and ask them questions about themselves till they like me back? 

64: Where is your best friend?

Which one? XD

65: Give me your top 5 favourite blogs on Tumblr.

in no particular order

@darhwolf

@francisballoonpants

@xqueenofpunsx

@rainmonarch

@cunningandfulloftricks

66: What is your heritage?

I don’t actually know, probably irish 

67: What were you doing last night at 12AM?

searching someone’s house for snack food with my friends XD

68: What do you think is Satan’s last name?

probs something super generic like woods

69: Biggest turn ons?

being incredibly mild mannered, being shy, being quiet but intelligent/thoughtful, beanies, flannel, someone remembering something you told them a really really long time ago that was just a little detail about yourself but they took note of it.

70: Are you the kind of friend you would want to have as a friend?

not at all! I really try to be the best friend I can be, but I know I’m lacking in a lot of ways and I can be quite a handful sometimes 

71: You are walking down the street on your way to work. There is a dog drowning in the canal on the side of the street. Your boss has told you if you are late one more time you get fired. What do you do?

question never specified that I was late for work, so I’m assuming my anxiety made me leave for work early anyways, therefore I can save the dog and keep my job. (I’d save the dog though even if I had to get fired)

72: You are at the doctor’s office and she has just informed you that you have approximately one month to live. a) Do you tell anyone/everyone you are going to die? b) What do you do with your remaining days? c) Would you be afraid?

A) I would only tell a select few people, I don’t like bothering people with my issues

B) travel!!!! idk what else I guess spend any money I’ve got on doing things with friends everyday, confessing to the guy I like, and just trying to go around helping as many people as possible during my last days

C) Nah. I’d be more concerned on how it affects my friends and siblings

73: You can only have one of these things; trust or love.

trust, love is kinda over rated

74: What’s a song that always makes you happy when you hear it?

Clay, more than this, beautiful thing- just basically anything by Grace Vandaerwaal

75: What are the last four digits in your cell phone number?

my broke ass doesn’t own one

76: In your opinion, what makes a great relationship?

Whenever you don’t fight a lot. Don’t get me wrong some fighting is kinda healthy, but you should be able to bring things up to your partner and you both see each other’s perspectives and work things out without arguing. 

77: How can I win your heart?

I honest to goodness don’t know??? Ask the guy I’m with cause he’s doing a bang up job

78: Can insanity bring on more creativity?

I think there’s a bit of insanity in creativity, them both being wild that is. So more insane could be seen as more creative sometimes, but a loss of the mind and an artistic presence are not one in the same in my opinion.

79: What is the single best decision you have made in your life so far?

When I decided to start cutting people out of my life if they were continually hurting me, intentional or not

80: What size shoes do you wear?

7 in womens

81: What would you want to be written on your tombstone?

Nothing cause I wanna be cremated. I am NOT coming back for the zombie apocalypse

82: What is your favourite word?

rn it’s “jingled”

83: Give me the first thing that comes to mind when you hear the word; heart.

sparkles 

84: What is a saying you say a lot?

“screw it and do it” 

85: What’s the last song you listened to?

Absolutely Smitten by Dodie Clark

[jodyedgarus]

Stop Us If You’ve Heard This One: Are The Patriots Over?

The sky is falling in New England. The arm of Tom Brady suddenly seems every bit of 41 years old, with the future Hall of Famer unable to find receivers deep downfield as in years past. The Patriots have a losing record in the early season, and the obituaries are being written.

If this feels like deja vu all over again, you’re not wrong. Brady was viewed as over the hill around this time in 2014, too. And the experts were also playing taps on the Patriots dynasty. The specific reason cited for Brady’s decline back then? An inability to throw the ball deep.

Of course, we all know what happened next. The Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick responded to the panic after a 41-14 Monday night loss to the Chiefs in 2014’s Week 4 with the mantra, “We’re on to Cincinnati.” The Patriots won that game 43-17 and their next six, too, en route to winning the Super Bowl. From that week in 2014 through the end of the 2017 season, Brady was above average in both yards per attempt and Raw Quarterback Rating on deep throws.

Eventually,1 Brady’s NFL career and the Patriots’ dynasty actually will come to an end. Though we can’t know for sure when that will happen, we should pay attention when they struggle — even if we can’t write them off quite yet. What’s happened in the past two weeks is unusual for the Pats and warrants more than just a shrug as New England prepares to host the unbeaten Dolphins, the first of three straight games in Foxborough.

The Patriots’ Elo rating sits at 1589 after their shocking 26-10 thumping at the hands of Detroit on Sunday night, which came on the heels of a 31-20 loss in Week 2 at Jacksonville. The last time New England’s number was this low was after that 2014 loss to the Chiefs. The Patriots have dropped 66.7 points since the 1656 they hit after their Week 1 victory at home against the Texans, who are still winless. That’s the fourth biggest two-week drop in Elo for the Patriots during the Belichick era.2

The worst two-game spells in the Belichick/Brady era

The biggest declines in Elo rating after two consecutive games for the Patriots, 2000-18

Pats’ Results vs. Season Weeks Loss Win 2-Week Drop 2015 16-17 NYJ, MIA -73.0 2015 12-13 DEN, PHI -66.9 2008 2-3 MIA NYJ -66.8 2018 2-3 JAX, DET -66.7 2008 3-5 MIA SF -66.1 2009 17-18 HOU, BAL -65.3 2002 5-6 MIA, GB -64.1 2002 15-16 TEN, NYJ -64.0 2002 6-8 GB, DEN -63.8 2002 4-5 SD, MIA -56.9

Three-week stretches include a bye week for New England. Week 18 of 2009 was a playoff game.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

The three times the Belichick Pats experienced a bigger two-week drop carry asterisks. The biggest occurred at the end of 2015, when the Pats closed the season with two straight losses long after clinching the division. The next biggest drop happened earlier that season, after the team was 10-0 and reached its second-highest Elo mark in the past five seasons before dropping games to Denver and Philadelphia. The third biggest drop was in 2008 after Week 1 — when Brady blew out his ACL and was replaced by Matt Cassel for rest of the season.

At a shocking 3-0, the Dolphins seem to be moving squarely in the opposite direction, setting up a rare opportunity for a team other than the Patriots to put a stranglehold on the AFC East. But Miami’s jump of 47.5 points over the past two weeks is just its 17th best since 2000. The Dolphins have been fortunate of late, being outgained from scrimmage by 105 yards against the Jets and 61 against the Raiders. The Dolphins’ 39 plays from scrimmage in the win over the Raiders are less than all but three teams since the 1970 merger.

“Are we there yet? No,” Miami QB Ryan Tannehill said after the game. “But the patterns we’re establishing are going to take us there.”

Brady will hope to get Josh Gordon on the field against Miami to rescue a passing game that’s bereft of weapons, which is allowing teams to fearlessly devote multiple defenders to tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gordon once was one of the most explosive players in NFL history. But the fact that the best hope for New England’s offense is Gordon, a player who has been suspended or injured for all but 11 games since his historic 2013 campaign, seems uncharacteristically desperate for the Patriots. Julian Edelman is set to return after Week 4 following a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but Edelman is 32 and coming off an ACL injury. If he can somehow return to form, his chain-moving ability will go a long way toward improving the Patriots’ 29th ranking in third down conversions (28.6 percent).

But let’s not forget that the Patriots have issues on the other side of the ball, too. The defense has recorded just four sacks, has allowed an alarming 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and is 30th in third-down conversion rate allowed. Finishing near the bottom on both sides of the ball in third down efficiency would be unprecedented for the Brady-Belichick Patriots.

A trademark for New England has been efficiency. In the NFL, that’s measured by converting yards into points and preventing the opponent from doing the same. This year, the Pats are middle of the pack on both offense and defense. Since 2013, they haven’t finished worse than seventh in offensive or defensive efficiency. (The offensive efficiency average across the NFL this year is 15.2 yards per point; it was 15.4 yards per point in 2017.) Red zone efficiency (13th on offense, eighth on defense), turnover differential (they’re even this year) and special teams success all play a part in boosting those numbers. These subtle strengths that have been a New England trademark are lacking thus far in 2018.

The bigger problem is the lack of quality players. Some of this is their own fault, having traded Brandin Cooks to the Rams for a first-round pick. With Brady at 41 and the window to win closing, the Patriots should be the team trading first-round picks for veteran talent, not vice versa. Cooks, meanwhile, is fifth in the NFL with 336 receiving yards, or 71 more than all of Brady’s wide receivers have managed combined.

In fairness to Brady, this situation is like someone took all the gadgets away from Bruce Wayne and then asked him to go out and still be Batman.

But this wouldn’t be the first time that Belichick the GM was saved by Belichick the Hall of Fame coach. Perhaps struggling rookie running back Sony Michel can turn into a dangerous weapon. Brady could certainly figure out a way to build a passing game around Gronkowski and someone else. Heck, some were writing Brady off at the end of last season, only to see him post arguably his best postseason ever, with 1,132 passing yards in three games and eight TD passes with zero picks. It’s easy to imagine that when the regular season is done, the Patriots are again about to host a playoff game.

FiveThirtyEight vs. the readers

In addition to our NFL Elo prediction interactive, which updates after every game to help you keep tabs on how your team stacks up, we’re also running a prediction game in which you make picks against our model (and your fellow readers). After the dust settles each week, we like to look at where Elo made its best — and worst — picks against the field. Here’s how it did in Week 3:

Elo’s dumbest (and smartest) picks of Week 3

Average difference between points won by readers and by Elo in Week 3 matchups in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction game

OUR PREDICTION (ELO) READERS’ PREDICTION PICK WIN PROB. PICK WIN PROB. Result READERS’ NET Points ARI 55% CHI 63% CHI 16, ARI 14 +14.7

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NYJ 62 CLE 51 CLE 21, NYJ 17 +11.4

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ATL 66 ATL 57 NO 43, ATL 37 +9.3

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LAR 64 LAR 70 LAR 35, LAC 23 +2.2

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TB 54 TB 52 PIT 30, TB 27 -0.9

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KC 77 KC 76 KC 38, SF 27 -2.6

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PHI 83 PHI 76 PHI 20, IND 16 -5.1

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HOU 59 HOU 62 NYG 27, HOU 22 -5.2

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SEA 55 SEA 51 SEA 24, DAL 13 -5.2

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CAR 63 CAR 56 CAR 31, CIN 21 -7.3

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MIA 68 MIA 60 MIA 28, OAK 20 -7.6

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BAL 68 BAL 59 BAL 27, DEN 14 -8.8

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JAX 71 JAX 77 TEN 9, JAX 6 -11.2

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NE 64 NE 75 DET 26, NE 10 -17.2

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WSH 57 GB 60 WSH 31, GB 17 -19.5

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MIN 78 MIN 90 BUF 27, MIN 6 -20.9

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Home teams are in bold.

The scoring system is nonlinear, so readers’ average points don’t necessarily match the number of points that would be given to the average reader prediction.

Elo steamrolled through the week based on the losses from a pair of 1-1-1 teams from the NFC North.3 Minnesota was a 16½-point favorite over hapless Buffalo, and our readers agreed with Vegas, giving the Vikings a win probability of 90 percent. But the Vikings found a new way to disappoint their fans, losing in “embarrassing” fashion to the Bills. Meanwhile, Green Bay went to soggy Washington and couldn’t get anything going, losing 31-17. Elo picked up 40.4 total points over the readers on just those two games — more than half of the 73.9 total points by which Elo beat a typical reader in Week 3.

The readers weren’t shut out, though. They had more faith in Khalil Mack and upstart Chicago than Elo did, giving the Bears a 63 percent chance to beat the Cardinals, compared with Elo’s 55 percent. The readers also believed that Cleveland could finally win its first game since 2016, picking the Browns over the Jets. Those two games generated 26.1 total points for the readers.

Congrats to reader Randy Renick, who led all identified users in points for Week 2; Renick is just behind Michel Rodriguez for the season lead. And thanks to everyone who played last week. If you didn’t play, remember that it’s not too late to get in on the game, even if you missed the first few weeks of the season. Make your picks now!

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-us-if-youve-heard-this-one-are-the-patriots-over/