#they had a solid 7 years where they were absolutely inseparable

[brokenangelwings22]

Here's probably my only entry for IHweek. I've finally returned to writing. This is an excerpt from chapter 2 of my story Come Back Down to Earth. You can read the first chapter either on AO3 or FanFiction

Confession (IHweek 7/4) Please enjoy!

Chapter 2: Crawled In and Never Left

Give me the chance to tonight

I'll prove to you what's in my eyes

(It’s My Turn To Fly - The Urge - Titan AE soundtrack 2000)

Ichigo considered himself a reasonable man, but his patience was growing thin with his roommate.

“C’mon, man! You had a solid chance with Hime last night!” Renji pleaded with him. “Why are you so obtuse?”

“That’s an awfully big word for you.” Ichigo rolled his eyes at his friend. “Ever think of taking your own advice with Rukia?”

Renji let out a long suffering sigh. “You’re both hopeless, and therefore perfect for each other.”

“I’m perfectly happy with how things are with Hime. I don’t want to chance it.”

Renji pulled out a box of pretzel sticks from the cupboard. He fixed a concerned look on his face, and the seriousness unnerved Ichigo.

“Look. I’m not gonna force you. Even if I think you’re absolutely nuts not to. I will, however, point out that you’re an idiot for not telling her how you feel.” Renji pulled out a piece of pretzel and pointed it at Ichigo to emphasize his thought. “You’re gonna lose her one day if you continue to be ridiculous.”

Ichigo narrowed his eyes as his scowl persisted. “You think I am not aware of that?”

Renji placed the stick between his teeth and grinned toothily. “Yup!”

A sleepy noise came from behind the two men just as Ichigo opened his mouth to snap at his friend.

“Mm morning guys,” Orihime yawned as she stepped into the kitchen. “Any coffee? It’s too early.”

“Sorry Hime. Were we too loud?” Ichigo asked, his previous scowl morphing to something more kind.

“No,” she murmured. Her voice was still thick with sleep. She stumbled a little, bumping into Ichigo. “Oh hi wall. You smell nice.” Orihime leaned into his chest and snuggled him.

There was a strangled sound from Renji as he watched the young woman wrap her arms loosely around Ichigo’s waist. Instinctively, Ichigo wrapped his arms around her to steady her.

“Renji,” Ichigo said softly as to not disturb Orihime. “Please brew some coffee for her.”

“Jeez if I had known that Hime could instantly dissolve your sour mood with an embrace, I’d handcuff you both together.” Renji grumbled and shook his head, walking over to the coffeemaker on the counter.

Ichigo hummed a distracted acknowledgement as he idly stroked Orihime’s long auburn hair. She snuggled into his broad chest further. “Thanks. I’ll move her back to her room.” He was already moving towards the living room as he heard Renji’s snarky reply.

“Oh take your time. I’m merely here to serve.”

~*~*~*~

Ichigo sighed heavily as he stepped out from Orihime’s room and shut the door behind him quietly. He turned to walk down the short hallway, only to stop dead in his tracks when he saw his two friends standing a few feet away with evil grins on their faces. Squaring his shoulders and fixing a glare at Renji and Rukia, he taunted “Don’t you both have something better to do? Like, absolutely anything?”

Rukia’s grin sharpened further. “Nah, we’re more interested in heckling you.”

Ichigo grumbled, raking his fingers through his unruly hair. “Yeah yeah. You’re both insufferable.”

He flicked Rukia’s forehead and smacked Renji’s upper back swiftly as he moved to leave.

Rukia’s retort was loud as she declared, “And YOU are the annoying brother I never asked for and yet somehow got!”

Renji’s muttering was barely noticeable under the small woman’s rage. “C’mon, Rukia. Let’s leave him be.”

Ichigo rolled his eyes, stepping around the ornery woman and made his way to the kitchen. Of course, Renji was right. It annoyed him to no end that he hadn’t spoken with Orihime about how he felt towards her. Hell, if he were being honest, he knew that he was in love with her at first sight.

She’d stumbled into his dad’s clinic, buckling under the weight of her brother’s prone body. This girl, only 12 at the time, carried her six foot and change older brother from the scene of the car accident all the way there. She was battered and bruised from the wreckage too. It broke him to his very soul when he had to tell her that his father was unable to save Orihime’s brother. The ambulance Isshin had called to rush him to the trauma ward of the hospital had simply not gotten there in enough time.

He did his best to console Orihime, who collapsed in a heap on the clinic floor. Her clothes were soiled with dirt and caked in her brother’s blood.

Yuzu had entered the room, and with a kind and understanding voice, ushered the broken girl to the bathroom to wash up. Orihime stayed at his house for several days, mostly walking around with mechanical movements, much like a zombie or a robot, just going through the motions of a semblance of normalcy. At night she’d cry herself to sleep. Ichigo stayed by her side when she was awake, and would help her to bed when she could barely stay up right.

Slowly, but surely, Orihime processed the loss of her brother. Ichigo stuck to her like glue, promising her and to himself that he would always be there to protect her. Orihime professed her gratitude to him soon after she moved back to her apartment, telling him that she was eternally grateful for everything he had done. As time went on, they became inseparable. They went to the same middle school and then high school, which introduced them to new friends that they quickly established into a tight-knit group.

Orihime had grown up beautifully. Her smile, warm and bright, had the ability to render him speechless and lightheaded. He felt invincible and vulnerable all at once. Far too many times, their friends would catch him when he was slack-jawed and mindless, teasing him mercilessly when Orihime wasn’t looking.

He began calling her ‘Hime’ their senior year. He hadn’t meant to, but it just slipped out. She had been followed by a group of boys who often flocked around her, taken by her beauty and her curvaceous body. One of them had ventured to put a hand on her shoulder without permission and Ichigo had snapped. Any restraint he had frayed instantly and before he understood what was happening, he had slammed the cretin against the wall and threatened him.

“You don’t touch women without consent, especially Hime.” He growled at the other guy, clenching the offending limb.

Orihime had called his name softly, telling Ichigo to let the man go, and he had simultaneously dropped him and her request. Ichigo made it a point to be by her side every chance he had. To protect her, love her from a distance if need be. It was enough, at that time.

But once Ichigo, Orihime and their friends entered university, the strain to keep a tight seal over his feelings became increasingly more difficult. His best friend flourished in academics and her social life expanded to include other people outside of their small group. With that also came obstacles, and Ichigo had to fend off more than a few of Orihime’s admirers.

Ichigo gripped the handle of the carafe of coffee angrily at the memory. The steam and scent of the hot brew brought him back to the present. He sighed after loosening his grip and poured two cups, adding cream and sugar to Orihime’s.

Soft footfalls behind him reached his ears, along with a quiet yawn. A grin spread on his lips as Orihime came into view.

Orihime blinked away the remnants of sleep from her eyes, smiling brightly at Ichigo when he offered her the cup he’d gotten for her.

Taking a big sip, she sighed happily. “Thanks, Ichigo. You always know how to make my coffee just how I like it.”

Ichigo smiled gently at her, shrugging his broad shoulders. “Well, after knowing you for ten years, I’d like to think I know you well enough to get your preferences right.”

Orihime giggled and gazed up at him from behind the mug pressed to her lips. “You do, and I’m grateful for that. Lord knows why Rukia insists on adding extra sugar and Tatsuki puts in too little cream. You are a hero among men, good sir.”

Ichigo’s smile widened at Orihime’s playfulness. “I try my best, m’lady.”

“Where are Rukia and Renji?” Orihime asked as she looked around the kitchen.

“Don’t know. Don’t care. Hopefully somewhere off annoying someone else more deserving.” He shrugged nonchalantly.

Orihime snorted bemusedly, shaking her head in disbelief as he tried to sound convincingly bored and grumpy. She raised her hand to place it on his right cheek in a fond manner.

“What am I going to do with you?” Her question came out more flirtatious than she intended.

Ichigo’s eyes widened at her sweet gesture and instantly leaned into her touch, closing his eyes and revelling in it. He had never realized how touch starved he truly was until Orihime would step into his personal space with her warm smile and kind gaze. It was as if that one thing, a fleeting brush of her fingers, or a soothing embrace had the ability to heal his wounded heart or eradicate any scar left on his soul.

Losing his mother at such a young age had made him a hardened and angry child. He blamed himself for her death, believing that if he had done something, spent more time with her, taken care of her and his sisters more, that she may very well have recovered from cancer. But his father had explained to him many times that the disease was caught too late, and the malignancy had metastasized from her cervix to her uterus and ovaries very quickly. Ichigo was still struggling with the loss of his mother two years later, when Orihime stumbled into their clinic with her brother.

He’d figured that no matter how miserable and heart wrenching it was, he had found purpose in consoling Orihime. It gave him unbelievable strength to bond with her over the loss. Helping her ultimately helped him as well in the end. The desire to be with her only grew. It had crawled in and never left. He’d become greedy for it, overthrown by his desperation to be close to the light that was Orihime.

She continued to lightly graze his cheekbone with soft brushes against him, her warm fingers causing pleasant tingles on his skin.

Orihime cupped the side of his face as she watched in awe how he was drawn to her touch, feeling the soft smile that pulled at his lips. When he raised his hand to place it over hers, she felt herself being pulled by an invisible force, almost magnetic. He had always been like that, and she adored being the one that he let in entirely. She stroked his cheek and began to pull her palm away until he held fast to her. His eyes fluttered open, and the look he had in them made the breath catch in her throat.

“Ichi-“ she murmured breathlessly.

The raw emotion that flashed in his dark amber gaze made her spine tingle, her heart stutter and her cheeks warm. He had the ability to render her tongue-tied with the flicker of something deep and foreign to her. Ichigo pulled her into his arms, finally allowing her hand to move, and she found herself slipping it to the back of his neck and burying her fingers into his soft hair. He wrapped his arms about her, pulling her to his lean, muscular body and sighed happily as Orihime sifted her fingers through his hair, scratching at his scalp comfortingly.

Orihime pressed her ear over his heart, as he towered over her five foot one frame. The thumping, strong sound of it beating quieted her mind immediately. He slid his hands up and down her back, and she felt herself melt into it.

“I… I just need this, Hime.” Ichigo’s whisper filtered into her ear as he pressed his lips to her temple, sending a shiver through her body. Though quiet, she heard the fervency in his tone. She nodded against him, continuing her movements through his hair. She felt him shudder in their embrace and the breathless ‘thank you’ that he uttered.

“Were you thinking about something?” Orihime whispered back, her eyebrows drawing inwards as the possibility fluttered through her mind.

Ichigo nodded, letting out a stuttering sigh. “Yeah. Don’t worry about it. I’m better now.”

She hummed thoughtfully at his response, resigning herself to his simple answer. She wouldn’t push him further.

Finally Ichigo pulled back from her to look her in the eyes. His gaze was still intense, as it flickered with what she could only identify as resolve and something far much more akin to what she assumed she wore as an expression often in his presence. It made her heart skip a beat and her mind to race at the possibilities.

“Hime,” he murmured. The way he said her name was like an urgent plea. It caused her stomach to swoop down like she was on an out of control rollercoaster. She waited on baited breath as he gathered his thoughts.

Ichigo’s mind was restless. His need to put into words how he felt about her, loved her, desired her rushed through and permeated the recesses of his brain. He should’ve been used to the intensity of it by now, but he most certainly wasn’t. The way she watched him gave him strength to form the words, stilling the overbearing thoughts warring to leave his mouth.

“I want to kiss you,” he whispered. His simple response was anything but, knowing deep down that this could make or break their friendship. The smile she gave him nearly shut down his brain entirely.

“What took you so long?” Orihime breathed before Ichigo’s mouth was on hers, his lips holding nothing back as kissed her with all the desperation and hunger of a man starved. The radiating joy splashed over the burning desire thundering through his veins.

Orihime parted her lips as she let out a sound that would’ve embarrassed her outside of this situation. Instead, she felt exhilarated to an immeasurable degree. Her body quaked at the reverence and pure heat he poured into it. It was as if the dam of years of keeping everything bottled up in fear of losing each other burst and flooded them all at once.

She clenched her fingers in his hair as he delved his tongue into her mouth. Orihime felt her body fight between melting and being drawn taught, like a string on a bow. Ichigo’s hands slid down to her hips, flexing and gripping at her flannel pajama pants and flesh. She angled her head when he held her firmly, seeking out his tongue with her own.

Ichigo was quickly lost in the taste of her skin, the sounds she made and the feel of her. His nerve endings felt like they had caught fire. It was a sensory overload in everything Orihime. If he didn’t think he was greedy before, he certainly was now.

~~~(TBC)~~~

I certainly hope you all liked this! I should have the chapter finished bit up fairly soon. Thanks so much for reading!

Also— I’m uncertain why this isn’t showing up in the tags, so I’ll try it again.

[broadstflyers]

The Philadelphia Flyers: A Saga, Section IX: Traded But Not Forgotten

Link to Table of Contents

Trade season has emotionally wrecked us all. after the 2020-2021 season, we as fans knew changes were for sure to come. so, this is basically an archive for the stuff I wrote for them back in march 2021. yes, this hurts.

FORWARDS:

Michael Raffl, #12

Nickname(s): Raffy

Position: Right Winger

Draft class: undrafted, signed in 2013 by the Flyers

Time On Team: 7 years

Where He Is Now: Washington Capitals

It seems as though Raffy tends to take on a mom role with the younger players.

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After Gritty threw his hat on to the ice for Joel Farabee’s hat trick against the Islanders on 1/18/20, Raffy thought it would look better on himself instead, so we got this lovely gif.

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Raffy is pretty laid back on the ice, but don’t you worry, he still pushes and shoves quite a bit. He’s a solid forth liner, and when he’s injured, he’s tough to replace on that bottom six.

Here’s a link to that Giroux and Raffl interview in that top gif.

Nolan Patrick, #19

Nickname(s): Patty, baby cat (Hayesy gave him that one), Nolpats

Position: Center/Wing

Draft class: 2017, 2nd overall

Time On Team: Roughly 4 years

Where He Is Now: Vegan Golden Knights

Patty is a relatively reserved player, but he isn’t afraid to retaliate if someone does him wrong. Some Penguins player laid a nasty hit on him in the Stadium Series, and he shook it off on the bench and went back out there and hit him back.

Multiple players are happy to have Patty back.

TK and Nolan are inseparable best-friends. TK is the loud, feisty short one and Patty is the tall, intimidating, quiet one. TK always sticks up for Nolan. Simple as that. When Nolan couldn’t play last year because of his migraine disorder, we were all upset because a) no one deserves something like that, b) Nolan had to miss the season and c) that meant no TK and Nolan interactions. But now that Nolan’s back, we just can’t get enough of how TK missed him and how he’s always by his side now.

Do y’all see how how happy TK is for Nolan? Tears.

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Here’s them stuck in a parking garage. I think this will suffice for the friendship dynamic feel.

And here’s an article about their best bromance moments.

Here’s Nolan mic’d up at the Stadium Series. Just like TK, some of Nolan’s iconic moments came from here, such as “I’m 200%” and “Bro, how did he score?” Because he didn’t know how Giroux scored. If you’re unfamiliar with the Stadium Series game, this will honestly give you a quick rundown on how that went.

Jakub Voracek, #93, Former Rotating Road Alternate Captain

Nickname(s): Um..I can’t think of one? I think Kevin Hayes messes around with his first name lmao but I’m not sure

Position: Right Winger

Draft class: 2007, 7th overall

Time On Team: 10 years

Where He Is Now: Columbus Blue Jackets

Ahhhh, Voracek.

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He has absolutely NO time for ANYONE’S shit. I think that’s fantastic. Context for the tweet below is that reporter wrote a crappy column on how Voracek was the reason why the flyers were collapsing back in 2016 and has been overall not nice to the team (Voracek doesn’t forget).

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He also isn’t afraid to step in and fight someone. When Nolan had the guts to go after a player for a crappy hit on G, Voracek was like “No son, you’re gonna die” so he went in WITH Nolan.

For years, he blocked fans on Twitter and had some beef with them here and there, but he left us a parting statement, one that reassured us through his classic voracek humor that he will always be a flyer.

ITI

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let's hope I don't add anymore people because I would become more mentally unstable.

______________

DEFENSEMEN

Philippe (Phil) Myers, #5

Nickname(s): Mysey, Leaf Eater (because he’s as tall as a giraffe, says Kevin Hayes), I call him Philly Myers lmao

Shot: RH

Draft class: Undrafted (!!)

Time On Team: Roughly 2 years

Where He Is Now: Nashville Predators

Yes, he was undrafted. He was invited to the Philadelphia Flyers rookie development camp in about 2015, and they signed him to his first professional deal in September 2015. He finished out that season in the QMJHL (Quebec Major Juniors Hockey League). They called him up in 2019 against the Detroit Red Wings. He started the 19-20 season in the AHL, but he worked his way into a permanent line-up spot.

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He also scored the OT winner vs the Islanders in the 2020 SCP.

Read more about Philly Myers here.

Robert Hagg, #8

Nickname(s): Bobby

Shot: LH

Draft class: 41st overall, 2013

Time On Team: 4 Years

Where He Is Now: Buffalo Sabres

He blocks a lot of shots for us and is one of our physical guys. I’m gonna be honest, I don’t know much about the guy, because as Gudas (a former Flyers D-man) said, he speaks three words per game.

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BUT- I did find this mic’d up, so you can watch that if you want.

Shayne Gostisbehere, #53

Nickname(s): Ghost, he has Ghost Bombs (his “bomb” of a shot from the point), his name is represented by the ghost and bear emojis

Shot: LH

Draft class: 78th overall, 2012

Time On Team: 6 Years

Ghost! He’s had a tough season or two with his knee surgeries and trying to bounce back. He’s been looking more or less a lot better, and we’re happy for him.

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Him and his fianceé (soon to be wife) have three french bulldogs who he loves very very much. You can meet him and his little family here.

Erik Gustafsson, #56

Nickname(s): Gus

Shot: LH

Draft class: 93rd overall, 2012

Time On Team: 2 months

Where He Is Now: Montreal Canadiens

This is Gus.

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He was signed after the retirement of Matt Niskanen. Not much to say about him, as he’s in and out of the lineup.

[dahliawolfe]

Wylie

No exactly cannon, but some elements of the Wynonna Earp timeline are present

“Dammit, Wylie! I told you to stay put,” Doc rages, scooping the youngest Earp up into his arms. Blood is flowing freely from her arm, and tears are welling up in her big chocolate eyes. “Now, now. Don’t start that cryin’” he begged, nuzzling the top of her head.

Wylie was always getting into trouble. At 19, she had been in more scrapes than most twice her age. And Doc figured he wouldn’t be changing anytime soon.

…

“You could’ve been killed!” Wynonna rages.

“But I wasn’t!” Wylie argues, wincing as Nicole dabs her wound with alcohol. “Oww, Nic!” she exclaims, recoiling from the redhead.

“Sorry, Kiddo, but you’re pretty torn up. I’ve gotta patch you up.” Wylie pouts, looking to Doc, who usually folded upon seeing her sad face.

“Oh, no, Missy. You earned every bit of this,” he says, wagging his finger at her.

“Wave!” Wylie begs, desperate for someone to be on her side. Waverly takes one look at her little sister and sighs.

“Oh, Wynonna, she was just trying to help. Give her some whiskey to dull the pain a little will ya.”

Wylie grins at her big sister. She knew someone would help her out.

“I absolutely will not give my baby sister whiskey!” Wynonna yells, crossing her arms over her chest.

“But…But…Nonna, it hurts so bad. Please.”

“No. End of discussion. I’m going to call Dolls and see what he’s found out.” Wylie hangs her head, knowing she’s been defeated.

…

…

Wylie studies her phone, waiting on the text to let her know what’s going on. Wynonna had promised her. And she would text. Right?

“Kiddo, I’m sure they’re fine,” Nicole assures, taking a seat on the worn velvet couch by Wylie.

“She promised me. I can help. I’m not a baby,” Wylie says dejectedly.

“I know you’re not, Sweetheart. And so do they, they just love you a lot and want to protect you. That’s all.”

“I can take care of myself!” She’s beginning to get angry. No one takes her seriously, and it is starting to annoy her.

“Calm down, Wy, everything will be ok,” Nicole soothes, coming to place her arm around Wylie.

“I’m going out. Don’t wait up.” Wylie stands angrily and storms out of the house, leaving Nicole sitting, mouth agape, wondering how she was going to tell Wynonna that she’d just let her baby sister go off alone.

…

The summer night is warm, but the grass under her bare shoulders in cool. And it’s peaceful. For once. No one is dying. No one is fighting. And she’s not being treated like a child. Tonight, the open plains are her sanctuary. Wylie lies on the grass, looking up at the huge expanse of stars. She knows that they’re probably looking for her, but she doesn’t care. Because it’s just her, the bottle of whiskey she stole from Wynonna’s truck, and the open air.

Whiskey burns a lot going down for the first few swallows, but then you become numb, and warm, and fuzzy. And that’s where Wylie is at. She could almost fall asleep here. And maybe she will. Just for a few minutes.

Wylie comes back to reality slowly. Something in the air feels wrong. She’s still tipsy, but the haze of the whiskey has faded. And she’s becoming acutely aware that she’s not alone in her little slice of paradise. But she lays still. Trying to come up with a game plan. She doesn’t have a gun. Not even a knife. And her phone is at least 100 yards away in her car. What the fuck is she supposed to do? She could make a run for it, but she doubts she’ll get far. But what choice does she have? So, steeling herself, she bolts from the ground, running as fast as she can toward her little black mustang.

Her hair is pulled sharply, sending fire through her scalp. She’s yanked off of her feet. But not for long as she’s grabbed around the throat and lifted into the air. She kicks violently. But it doesn’t do much good. Her captor has turned her around and she can see his glowing red eyes. “Well, fuck,” she hisses. He smiles evilly up at her.

“Well, well, if it isn’t baby Earp herself. Pleasure to meet you, Little One.” Wylie is slowly losing the fight with consciousness, when she sees it. Her chance at salvation. She notices that he’s lowered her just a few inches to taunt her directly to her face. And her foot is lined up perfectly with his crown jewels. She gives a wry grin before rearing back and kicking him as hard as she can. He makes a sound like a gutted pig and throws her away from his body. She lands hard, hitting her head on the ground with a solid, “thwap”.

The world spins drunkenly for a few seconds before she makes her way unsteadily to her feet. She hears his boots approaching behind her, so she grabs the only thing she can reach, her whiskey bottle, and spins, putting the whole of her weight into the swing, catching him in the skull. He crumples, but unfortunately, so does she. The bottle has broken in her hand and her grip is slick with blood, but she holds the broken bottle like her life depends on it. Because it just might.

The familiar sound of boots approaches from behind her, and she smiles. Wynonna and Doc are here. Just in time. Because, she’s not sure she can stay awake much longer. She falls back into Doc’s arms just as Wynonna levels Peacemaker at the revenant’s head and pulls the trigger. Then she goes limp.

…

…

Doc holds her hair back as she empties her stomach into the basin in front of her. Again.

“Alright. It’s alright, Darlin’. I’m right here with ya,” he soothes, pulling her back into his chest once she’s spent. She sobs, turning her face into him and clutching his shirt in her fist. The combination of the alcohol, head injury, and near-death experience have wrecked her.

Wynonna comes back into the room and kneels to place and ice pack on Wylie’s temple. “It’s ok, Babydoll. You’re safe now,” the eldest sister assures. She strokes her sister’s arm and hums quietly. Wynonna had spent many nights taking care of Wylie like this. Wylie was Ward’s youngest, but the girls didn’t share a mother. Ward met Wylie’s mother, Rachael six months after Michelle was sent to prison. She was a drifter and after having Wylie, she ran off again. Wynonna had been the only mom Wylie had known. Hell, she’d been her father too for that matter. When Wynonna went to Greece, she wanted to take Wylie with her, but she knew that a life on the road wasn’t right for a kid. So, she’d done the next best thing; left her with Waverly.

͠

Doc makes his way to his feet, Wylie still in his arms, and she stirs, immediately clutching at him again. “Perhaps she should sleep with us tonight,” he tells Wynonna, looking down at the youngest Earp. He’d immediately taken a shine to Wylie. She was smart. Sassy. Brave. And would just as soon give you a verbal lashing as to look at ya. And Doc admired that. She seemingly became partial to him rather quickly too. The two were nearly inseparable now.

“Yeah, I suppose she should,” Wynonna replies, flicking the bathroom light off behind them as they made their way upstairs. Waverly, Nicole, and Dolls were all at the station trying to piece together who attacked Wylie in that field. And Wynonna wasn’t much for research, but she would damn well kill anybody who tried to hurt her kid.

…

…

The smoke billowing from his cigarillo clouds out the stars as he sits on the porch. Dolls had called nearly an hour ago identifying Wylie’s would be killer as Johnathan Witham. A pedophile that Wyatt had hung over a hundred years before. Doc remembers Wyatt telling him about the man. And the sick feeling of primal hatred he felt then is still present today. What would he have done with their little Wylie? Doc shudders to think. But Doc assumes that just as in life, Witham, in death served another master. And that scares Doc more than anything. Because that means the threat to his little girl isn’t over.

͠

The bandages wrapped around her bicep and hand, the stitches to her head, and the nasty bruises around her neck make Wylie look like she’s seen better days. And she has. Way better days. She’s tired, cranky, sore, and nauseous, but Wynonna insisted she come to the station with her today. Wylie hates being babysat. She’s a grown woman. She doesn’t need her sister to wipe her ass 24/7.

“Nonna, let me go home and sleep, please. I promise I won’t leave the homestead.”

“No. You’re under 24-hour surveillance until we find out who sent Witham to kill you.”

“How do you even know someone sent him? Maybe he came of his own free will.”

“Unlikely. Witham isn’t patient enough to watch you for that long without striking. Unless someone was there to hold him back,” Doc states, leaning against the desk in front of her.

“But why would anyone want to kill me?! I’m nobody! You’re the heir!”

“You’re not nobody, Sweetie. You’re very important to all of us here,” Waverly says, coming over to stroke her sister’s hair out of her eyes.

“I’m just saying, wouldn’t it make more sense to go after Wynonna? She’s their public enemy number one.” “They know that she would kill for you,” Dolls states, taking a sip from his X mug.

“Ok, but X Man, there’s a problem with that. Why would they want her to kill them?” Wylie asks.

“They don’t. Maybe they wanted to use you as bait and Witham got a little too riley,” Nicole suggests.

“So, they’re setting a trap for Nonna?”

“Could be,” Dolls agrees. “Doc, who did Witham hang around with back in the day?”

“Well, I did not know the man personally. But Wyatt told me that he found Witham west of Pike’s Gulch. That used to be the stomping grounds of the Warren Brothers.”

“The Warren Brothers?”

“Outlaws. Wyatt eventually hung them too. They robbed banks from here to El Paso. They  had a gang of bastards out there in those woods.”

“Interesting. Let’s find out more about these Warren Brothers, Haught.”

“On it.”

…

Wylie had fallen asleep on her, and she can’t breathe. But she knows the kid needs the rest, so Wynonna stays still. Or, well, she stays still until her phone rings. She knows it’s Dolls. It’s his ringtone. And she also knows she needs to answer it. Maybe if she can just reach…

“Mama, no,” Wylie whines in her sleep. Wynonna stills again, humming to ease the kid back into dreamland. It’s not the first time Wylie’s called her mama. And for whatever reason, it warms her heart a little. Every time. It makes her feel like she’d finally done something right.

͠

“Wynonna, why the hell aren’t you answering your phone?” Dolls demands, slamming through the front door.

“Shh!” Wynonna hisses, gesturing to the sleeping girl in her lap.

“We’ve got a beat on the Warren Brothers,” Dolls states, lowering his voice. He pulls a chair close to the Earp sisters and sits down. “Wyatt did hang the younger brother, Hank, but it was years before he caught the older one, William. Supposedly, William swore to take revenge on Wyatt. He believed that Wyatt had forgotten about him after he had been gone from Purgatory for nearly five years. So he snuck onto the homestead in the middle of the night, expecting to take Wyatt by surprise. But Wyatt shot him right between the eyes with Peacemaker and let a calvary into the Gulch the next day, taking out the rest of his gang.”

“So, what, Willy boy is still seeking his revenge on us? That’s a hell of a grudge.”

“Makes sense. Well, as much sense as any other revenant’s story.”

“You’ve got me there.”

…

“This is a bad idea, guys. Something bad is going to happen,” Wylie insists. She was expected to walk into the Gulch, pretending to sacrifice herself for Wynonna. And the others would come in and take out the Warren boys.

“Nothing bad is going to happen, Wy. We’ve got you. I promise,” Wynonna assures.

“Ok. Cool. But, maybe…”

“I could do it,” Waverly offers. “She’s my sister too. You both are. It makes sense that I would want to sacrifice myself, too.”

“No! I’ll…I’ll do it. I can do it,” Wylie concedes. She doesn’t want Waverly getting hurt because of her. Dolls nods.

“Then let’s get to getting,” he says, cocking his gun.

͠

The air is beginning to take on the chill of autumn, and Wylie rubs warmth into her skin as she makes her way through the woods.

“I know who you are! And I know what you want!” she calls, looking all around her. “And I’m here to make a deal! I’ll take her place!” Someone jumps from a tree, landing in front of her, nearly making her piss herself.

“Are you now?” the man hisses, the smell of death seeping through his yellowed teeth. Wylie steels herself.

“Yes. Now, take me to the Warren Brothers.”

“We’re right here, Darlin’,” comes a voice, as two men emerge from the trees.

“Well, you heard my terms. Me for her. Do you accept?” Wylie feels like she might spring apart, but she’s trying to keep it together and remain outwardly calm.

“Well, Sugar,” the younger of the two brothers begins, smirk lining his face as he stalks around her in circles. “I think we could work something out.” Wylie swallows through a dry throat.

“So, I have your word?”

“You can have something else, Earp whore,” he growls, dragging her to his body and  thrusting his crotch into her hips.

And that’s when all hell breaks loose.

“Get your filthy hands off of her!” Waverly exclaims, emerging from the trees, the rest of the family flanking her. She marches up to Hank Warren, punching him right in the face as Dolls, Doc, and Wynonna set about eliminating the rest of the Warren gang. Nicole leads Wylie and Waverly away from the action. She’s turned to check on the youngest when a revenant pops out from behind a tree.

“Nic!” Wylie yelps, already grabbing her knife from her boot. She throws it just like Doc showed her, and it finds its home in the revenant’s heart. He slumps to the ground, just in time for Wynonna to arrive and aim Peacemaker at his head, pulling the trigger, and sending the bullet between his eyes.

…

 …

After taking stock and patching up wounds, the Earp family sits around Shorty’s just breathing in the calm of the moment.

“The hero of the night gets a shot, on me!” Nicole declares, slinging a whiskey glass down the bar to Wylie, who immediately shoots it back.

“Hey! This is cider!”

[vermiculus-incipiens]

OOC INFORMATION:

What’s your name? Kay!

Preferred pronouns: she/her

Timezone: Arizona/MST/GMT -7

IC INFORMATION:

Character Name: Andromeda Eirene Black Tonks - She has always felt that her name was particularly fitting for herself. Andromeda, the chained maiden; she always felt trapped in her family, even if she couldn’t identify the feeling until she was older. Trapped by her family, by their reputation, by the weight of expectations. Eirene - meaning peace, a trait she has always attempted to embody. Even at home, as much as she tried to be unseen by the rest of her family, she equally tried to bring peace when there was conflict. She has left behind her maiden name, choosing to shed her Black identity as easily as she shed the expensive gowns that she left behind. Instead, she revels in being Andromeda Tonks. Ted has and always will embody all the good that she sees in the world and she wants nothing more than to attempt to imitate him to the best of her ability.

What’s a hobby or pastime that your character enjoys? Andie began learning to cook after she married Ted; before, she never needed to cook. So with Ted, she learned to cook the Muggle way and discovered that she loves working with her hands in that way. She cooks herself as much as possible, and loves any type of cooking. Her favorite thing is to bake cookies with Dora but whenever she’s worried, she’ll disappear into the kitchen to cook and alleviate her stress that way. (A controlled outcome, something she can predict and determine, is very important to Andie. Relinquishing control is very hard for her, and there is very little that she can control anymore.)

Do you have any preferred ships or anti-ships? I am and always will be a Tedromeda shipper. I think they have the most beautiful love story and I always have enjoyed the chance to write it. The changes she goes through in order to be with him are so fascinating and compelling to me. (Sorry, this has deviated a little from the actual question but long story short: there is no other ship that I can see for Andromeda.)

What do you think your character’s Boggart would be? If their greatest fear isn’t something that could easily take a solid form, what is it? Why? Andie is most afraid of her sister Bellatrix. She doesn’t want to see her other family members (well … Narcissa, maybe, because the only guilt Andie has ever held for her choice to be with Ted is the fact that she had to abandon her younger sister to be happy) but there’s far more fear of her older sister than anyone else. She has no doubt that Bellatrix could and would hurt her if given the chance, and Andie will do everything in her power to protect herself - and more importantly, her new family. So her boggart takes the form of her oldest sister, attacking Andie’s family.

What’s your character’s biggest pet peeve? Sloppiness - whether that’s the form of an actually dirty house or room, or just someone looking ill-kempt or slovenly. It is not unusual for her to be found moving around the room when there’s an Order meeting at the Tonks home, tidying up after their guests even while they are in the middle of the meeting. She doesn’t go so far as to make them remove their shoes (although it’s thought that has been given a lot of consideration) but she’ll pick up glasses and set coasters under them, or run a rag over a sticky spot on the table during the meeting (not even a glare from Moody himself is enough to stop her; he’s not that intimidating, not compared to Cygnus or Bellatrix Black. She will stop at a look or comment from Dumbledore, of course).

What would you consider to be an eccentricity of your character? Andie is very particular about the aspects of Muggle culture that she takes into her life. For example: cleaning and cooking the Muggle way is acceptable and enjoyable; Muggle travel is totally out of the question, except when it’s absolutely necessary. She finds Muggle money absurd, and has little wish to be in Muggle cities, but she loves Muggle fashion and prefers it to anything she wore as a Black. The wireless is fascinating, and the cinema (she loves watching films), and the television, but she doesn’t like or understand the need for a telephone. And don’t get her started on pens or pencils; quills are highly preferable and she consistently refuses to use any of Ted’s writing utensils except in extreme circumstances.

What is/was your character’s favorite subject in school? Why? Andromeda always liked potions. It was a controlled form of magic, something where she could predict the outcome. Follow the steps, make the potion. She also got along fairly well with Slughorn and enjoyed that aspect; not all the professors were as easy to befriend and while she never disliked a class because of a professor, liking her professor helped a lot.

What time of day is your character’s favorite? What time of year? The best time of day, in Andie’s opinion, can be divided into two specific moments of the day. First, the very early morning when she and Ted are up together, making breakfast or just sitting and enjoying their tea, before Dora joins them. It’s important to Andie that she and Ted have moments to themselves, to remember their relationship apart from their daughter. But she also loves the early evenings, when she comes home with Dora and together they start making dinner. She loves to hear everything Dora has to say about her day and what she’s done. Her favorite time of year is summer, when she and Ted and Dora have longer hours to do things in the evenings after dinner. She doesn’t particularly like being bundled up for the cold and revels in the chance to wear shorts or dresses without added layers.

What’s your character’s Patronus? If they can’t conjure one, what would it be if they could? Why? Andie’s Patronus takes the form of a tiger. She conjures it with the memory of the first time Ted told her that he loved her. (The tiger symbolizes an independent person who doesn’t like to show weakness to others and is a bit cynical due to their past, all of which Andie embodies. Information found here.)

What is your character’s biggest vice (bad habit or immoral craving)? Andie is arrogant. It’s a bad habit, and one she has tried to break, and also one that only affects certain things (for example, she doesn’t view any group of people as better than others; she isn’t the sort to think she’s better than Muggleborns, for example) but it’s certainly there. She grew up being told that her family was the best and that’s a hard lesson to shake off, no matter how false she knew it to be. So even though she knows she isn’t better than anyone else, she’s still shaking off that arrogance that seems to be born into the Blacks.

Is your character an introvert or extrovert? How well do they handle social situations? Andie is an introvert. She prefers to be at home with her family rather than out with other people. She learned how to handle herself in social settings though - she didn’t like all the attempts to teach her how to be a pureblood lady, but she learned them very well. Now, it’s extremely rare for her to let on how badly she wants to be alone when she’s surrounded by people. If they’re at her house, she wants them to leave, and if she’s out, she wants to go home. She can circulate and make small talk with the best of people though, so no one would know her inner turmoil.

What is your character’s diet like? What’s his or her favorite food? Andie has worked very hard to learn how cook healthy meals for her family (and encourage Dora to eat and enjoy them, although she settles for just seeing Dora eat the food at this stage in life). Their meals are almost always homemade, as Andie turns her nose up at most restaurant meals (with the exception of a few places, or the times Ted really works to sweet-talk her into a family night out.). Meals are also quite varied, as she likes a challenge in the kitchen and is always looking for something that her daughter will enjoy. She’s never really sat to think about her favorite foods though. However, Andie loves popcorn and often pops some for her and Dora and Ted to enjoy after dinner.

How do you think your character’s psychological issues have manifested and changed your character up to this point? Andie is becoming more and more brittle as the war progresses. She is, at heart, a soft person, the kind with seemingly endless optimism and hope for the future, who can forgive and love and welcome people into her life with open arms. However, much of that was ruthlessly squelched under her family’s influence, and now is fading even more as the war progresses. Andie values her poise above almost everything else; she sees a lot of self-worth in how well she can handle a crisis without falling to pieces and the thought of actually cracking under the pressure she feels is unbearable. Where she was once more cheerful and hopeful, she has become more fearful and pessimistic. She hides it as much as she can, and her spectacular poise means it’s hard to see past the polite expressions to the true turmoil underneath. Perhaps the hardest part is the distance she feels from Ted now; at Hogwarts, she felt like they were inseparable, that nothing could ever come between them, that she could go to him with anything and that he felt the same way. But she’s seen his struggles and though she’s waited for him to come to her, he withdraws instead. Andie has never handled rejection very well, and seeing his withdrawal only makes her withdraw as well. She wants to turn to him and be supported and offer support, but she doesn’t know anymore how to bring it up. It’s starting to wear on her, and Dora is starting to realize something is different at home. She’s empathetic but it means that she has taken a very heavy burden during the war (one of the reasons she couldn’t work at St. Mungo’s was because the weight of working with all those people would be too much for her; it’s easier to work privately, offering aid as she can to a select group of people).

Give us a headcanon for your character. Anything is acceptable. Andie is a clean freak. She has always kept her things tidy, and when she left her family and joined Ted, she learned that cleaning the Muggle way (much like cooking the Muggle way) is very rewarding. She has a strict schedule for cleaning their house (it isn’t very big, but Dora generates a lot of chaos and mess) and rarely deviates from the schedule. When she’s especially stressed, she can often be found scrubbing the baseboards or beating a rug, something that requires more exertion from her. It is not unusual these days for her to wake in the middle of the night and turn to cleaning when she can’t fall back asleep.

[golbrocklovely]

only the lonely survive // colby brock - chapter sixteen: i keep telling myself i’m not the desperate type

A/N: sorry this chapter is a bit late. hope you enjoy it nonetheless. please let m know what you think of the story so far. also, i wanted to let you know that i will be posting some request throughout the week. alrighty, enjoy this chapter! see yall later :)

description of the story

taglist:  @ajosieface , @localsleeper , @julyrubyrose , @far-to-many-bands , @absolute-randomness-forever

trigger warning: cursing, heartbreak, light smut

word count: 2340

~~~~~~~~~~

DAY 7/14

I lounged around the house for most of the day up until my date with Colby. I showered and got into comfy clothing, since literally all we were going to be doing was sitting around, eating, and cuddling anyway. I fluffed up my pillows and blankets as I cleaned my room quickly. I went to get some snacks and drinks from the kitchen when I saw Casey’s bedroom door opened.

I walked in and flicked the lights on, Casey no where to be seen. I cocked my head to the side as I texted her.

Skye: where did you leave to ???

As I pulled out the snacks, I felt my phone vibrate.

Casey: as if you’re the only one who can get a date

I smirked and rolled my eyes. As I headed back to my room, I heard a knock at the front door. I placed my items down and opened it, coming face-to-face with Colby.

“Hi.” I smiled.

“Hey.” He beamed.

“Come on in. The pizza will be here soon. I hope you don’t mind, but I got stuffed-crust pizza.” I stated, moving to the side and letting him in.

He gasped. “I love stuffed-crust.”

I shut the door and nodded my head softly. “This is why I agreed to go on a date with you.”

He smirked. “It wasn’t for my good looks and charming personality?”

“I mean, that’s cool too, I guess.” I joked, walking over to grab the snacks and drinks again.

Right before I could, Colby slid his hands onto my hips and spun me around to face him. He leaned in quickly and kissed me. I melted into the kiss and wrapped my arms around his neck. He pulled away slowly, leaving me breathless.

“I needed to do that.” He whispered.

“…I’m glad you did.” I giggled.

He rubbed his nose against mine, smiling softly. Sneakily, he grabbed the snacks from behind me and pulled away from me, going to my room.

I sighed happily and took the drinks, following him in.

“So, what type of movie should we start with? Horror or comedy?” He asked, smiling brightly as he got comfortable in my bed.

“Horror.” I decided, cuddling up next him.

/  /  /  /

It had been a solid two hours, filled with snacks, multiple pizza slices, bathroom breaks, and me burying my face into Colby’s neck, cuddling as close to him as I could during the scariest parts of the horror movie.

As the credits started to roll, I groaned. “Am I a dumbass for agreeing to watch a horror movie even though I hate horror movies?”

Colby shook his head, wrapping his arms around me tighter. “Of course not. You’re brave.”

I laughed. “Yeah. I’m so brave for having to cuddle with you the whole time and hide anytime something scary happened.”

“Well, I didn’t mind the cuddles.” He smiled cheekily down at me.

I rolled my eyes, slowly pulling away from him. “That was so cheesy, oh my God.”

“No, no. You don’t get to leave. Stay here with me and all the cheesiness.” He pulled me into him again, throwing his leg over top of me.

I giggled and tried to crawl away, but he rested his body weight on top of me. He chuckled into my neck as I turned around to face him, my back laying on the bed.

“Get off me. You’re heavy.” I scrunched my face, wiggling underneath him.

He gasped. “That’s mean. Now I’m definitely not moving.”

I huffed, accepting it. I stared up at him, as he looked down at me. He slid one hand up and moved a piece of hair out of my face, tucking it behind my ear. I softly smiled at the gesture as he cupped my cheek.

“Can I kiss you?” He asked quietly, his voice low and sweet.

I nodded. “You don’t have to ask.”

Colby shrugged bashfully and leaned down, gently placing his lips onto mine. They were soft and warm, making my lips tingle with every little touch. His hand drifted down to rest on my lower back, causing me to arch into him. A light moan escaped his lips.

I pulled him closer, my hands resting on his neck and in his hair. I opened my legs, allowing Colby to get even closer to me. My right leg lightly wrapped around his hip. I could feel his whole body press into mine. A heat rose throughout me, causing a light shiver to roll up my spine.

His lips eased down to my neck, leaving delicate kisses. He started to nibble and suck on a spot under my jaw. I could feel his tongue lap at my neck, goosebumps rising as he breathed against me. I shuddered and moaned quietly, keeping my lips pressed together.

“You don’t have to be quiet for me, baby.” He grunted into my ear.

My breath hitched in my throat as he began to attack my neck again. My fingers gripped his shoulders, my nails digging in. His teeth grazed my jaw in light retaliation.

Two can play at this game…

I slowly whined my hips into his, my lower half moving in a circle. He rested for a moment, just feeling me torture him for a few seconds. I could feel his body tense, and then he began to roll his hips into mine. I pulled his mouth back onto my lips, needing to taste him again. His hands now rested on the inside of my shirt, electricity running up the sides of my body. His right hand slid higher until his fingertips reached the underside of my bra. As his hand went to cup my breast, the front door slammed shut.

“Fuck you and get out Brennen!” I heard Casey yell.

Colby lifted his head up towards the noise, sighing deeply as Brennen and Casey continued to argue. He rolled off me and I walked out of my room, fixing my clothes along the way.

“I’m so tired of your shit, Casey! Why won’t you just admit you like me?” Brennen loudly asked.

Casey groaned. “Maybe I don’t like you Brennen! You ever thought of that?!”

“If that’s the case, why the fuck did you go on a date with me?” Brennen questioned.

I jumped in. “Whoa, whoa, whoa, guys. What’s the problem?”

“Brennen has been an ass to me all night and I just want him gone.” Casey stated, pointing at Brennen.

“How have I been an ass to you? I took you out on a nice date and everything has been going fine. It wasn’t until I told you I liked you that all of a sudden you started to flip your shit at me.” He argued.

“I don’t have feelings for you.” She stammered, her voice shaking.

His voice lowered, his tone sweeter this time. “I know you do. You just don’t want to admit it…”

“Get the fuck out of here! Do NOT tell me how I feel or what I should do!” She screamed.

“Fine! If you want me gone, so be it.” He huffed, rolling his eyes harshly.

Colby came out of my room just as Brennen slammed the front door shut. I exhaled, turning to him. “Hey, can you go make sure he’s okay?”

Colby nodded. “Yeah. I’ll be right back.”

“Okay,” I turned back to Casey, who sat at our kitchen table, her leg bouncing and her arms crossed. "What did he do to make you that upset?"

“I told Brennen the night we hooked up that I didn’t want anything serious. I just wanted a hook up and I was down to do it again with him, but nothing more. When he asked me out on the date, I thought he was just being nice and it was just gonna end with us having sex again anyway. Now he’s telling me he has feelings for me and that I won’t admit mine to him.” She complained.

I pursed my lips. “Is he lying?”

“Of course he is! I don’t like him! All I wanted was sex.” Casey stated.

I paused. “I hate to be the one to ask this… but does this have anything to do with Al-“

“Don’t even say his name.” She angrily muttered.

Oh, Alex… what an asshole.

Alex Kensington was a boy that went to our college. He was nice, a bit of a frat boy, but an overall good guy. He played lacrosse, had decent grades, and majored in business finance. He was beautiful: the softest brown eyes I’d ever seen, a gorgeous smile, and short curly golden locks. One of his best friends was a dancer, which is how he met Casey in the first place. They started dating the moment they met each other. They seemed perfect together.

But of course, I wouldn’t be calling him an asshole if everything was actually perfect.

He had a bit of a jealous side. A lot of the dancers Casey hung out with were boys. He would get upset sometimes that she would be hanging out with them a lot more than him. At first it wasn’t too bad, just a comment or two every so often. But it got worse and worse. Soon, he didn’t want her having any guy friends at all. And because she loved him, she did what he asked.

It wasn’t just her friends he controlled though: it was what she wore, what she posted, what she ate, and even what she was allowed to talk about. He controlled everything about her. She became isolated, only having him in her life. A year into their relationship, she and I became friends because of the musical we were both in. She was hesitant to be my friend, but soon we became inseparable.  

He didn’t like me, not that that mattered to me.

I didn’t know how controlling he was until one night she came to my dorm, crying her eyes out. They were at a party and one of her old guy friends came up to her. She tried not to talk to him, but she didn’t want to be rude. Alex saw them talking, and it apparently “hurt his feelings so much”, he decided to cheat on her right then and there. He wanted to teach her a lesson.

That night, she stayed at my place and told me everything about him. That morning, she broke up with him.

The moment they broke up, I saw how much happier she was without him. She began to live her life the way she wanted to again, which was great.

But one thing to note about Casey is that she is petty.

She began to be everything Alex didn’t want her to be, which at first wasn’t bad. She showed her body off more, she became friends with every guy she could, she said what she wanted, and did what she wanted. And then… she started to have sex with any guy she wanted to.

She hasn’t had a serious relationship since Alex. She hooks up with guys and never calls them again. She doesn’t like commitment and thinks it’s a joke. She doesn’t want a boyfriend at all, or any guy for that matter, who’s gonna tell her what to do.

But I know her. She likes commitment. She just scared to be hurt again.

There have been many drunken nights she’s admitted to me, but in the morning, she’ll say it was a joke.

The front door opening again brought me out of my thoughts. I spun around to see Colby coming back in, walking over to me.

He lightly pulled me to the side. “Hey… is it okay if I head out? Brennen is kinda in a bad place and needs to talk. He also kinda wants to get drunk.”

I smiled lightly. “Yeah, go be with your friend. I have to do some damage control here anyway. Besides, we can always have another date.”

“Maybe one not at your place.” He joked.

I giggled and nodded my head. He smiled softly and leaned in, kissing me quickly. “I’ll see you later.”

“Bye Colby.” I mumbled, pulling away from him.

“Bye Skye.” He winked, turning around and leaving quickly.

I watched him leave and then turned back to Casey. She was now in the kitchen, pouring a glass of wine. I cocked my eyebrow at her.

“What? Brennen’s allowed to get drunk but I can’t.” She hissed.

I flung my hands up. “I said nothing.”

“Yeah, but your face did.” She jeered.

“Be honest with me Casey. Do you like Brennen?” I asked, leaning against the fridge.

“No.”

“Is that a no to the honesty or a no to Brennen?”

“You decide.” She smirked.

“I know you don’t want to hear this…” I explained.

She took a long swig from her glass. “Then don’t say it.”

“Brennen’s a good guy. Does he have faults, of course. What guy doesn’t? But you need to realize he is not Alex.”

She stayed quiet, just sipping her wine and staring at the floor. A blank expression sat on her face. I sighed, stepping out of the kitchen.

“I just don’t want to get hurt again.” I heard her whisper.

I felt my heart shatter, the sadness in her voice made me run back into the kitchen, wrapping my arms around Casey and embracing her tightly.

Her tears splashed onto my neck as I pulled her closer.

“I can’t promise he won’t hurt you, but you gotta start letting people in, especially guys you like.” I stated into her hair.

She pushed away from me for a second. She looked up at me, taking a deep breath. “He’s not Alex, is he.”

I shook my head. She leaned back against the counter. “Did I just ruin what I could have had?”

“I don’t think you did. Give Brennen tonight, and then call him in the morning. Maybe have a heart-to-heart with him.” I suggested.

She nodded softly, sniffling. “So… how was your date?”

<< CHAPTER 15 || CHAPTER 17 >>

[drivindrivin]

While I don’t necessarily agree with these rankings, I always find what Jolyon has to say very interesting. He, Jack Nicholls and Jenny Gow are great on the BBC radio F1 coverage. 

Jolyon’s five best drivers of the year

Max Verstappen

Lewis Hamilton

Charles Leclerc

Carlos Sainz

Sergio Perez

Article under the cut

Former F1 driver Jolyon Palmer, who left Renault during the 2017 season, is part of the BBC team and offers insight and analysis from the point of view of the competitors.

The Formula 1 season ended in Abu Dhabi on Sunday with a podium that summed up the season perfectly - the three outstanding drivers of the year were all on it.

Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton won the race, from Red Bull's Max Verstappen and Ferrari's Charles Leclerc. For me - and I suspect many others - they were the best three drivers in 2019. Just not quite in that order.

This is my assessment of the F1 grid in 2019.

The five best drivers of the year

1. Max Verstappen

In terms of choosing the best driver of the season, Hamilton and Verstappen were practically inseparable. Hamilton won the championship, but if I had to pick just one of them, I'd say Verstappen just edged it.

His relentless pace and consistently high level caused team-mate Pierre Gasly to be demoted from Red Bull to Toro Rosso in the summer break. And now the pressure is mounting on Alex Albon, Gasly's replacement, as Red Bull desperately search for someone who can operate somewhere near Verstappen's level.

In the first part of the season, Verstappen's victory in Austria, achieved while lapping his team-mate despite being behind him on the first lap, underlined his dominance over Gasly, who has excelled against both his other F1 team-mates, Brendon Hartley last year and Daniil Kvyat this.

Three race wins, extremely few mistakes and being a constant thorn in the sides of Ferrari and Mercedes shows how good Verstappen has been.

This was underlined by the fact that he finished the season comfortably third, ahead of both Ferraris, despite being in a slower car in terms of absolute pace and being wiped out by each of the Italian team's drivers at some point.

The only big downside for Verstappen are that a first pole position in Hungary should have been followed up with another in Mexico as well as Brazil, were it not for some foolhardy driving to not back off past a yellow flag.

That cost Verstappen another win. Potentially he could have exercised more caution in Belgium Turn One as well, but aside from that Verstappen's season was flawless.

2. Lewis Hamilton

Equally as impressive as Verstappen, this was an almost perfect season for Hamilton, in which he was strongly in contention for victory at nearly every single race.

When Hamilton leads out of Turn One, the race is boring. This was demonstrated once more in Abu Dhabi, although team-mate Valtteri Bottas couldn't challenge him from the back of the grid. When he doesn't, he's always a factor in the fight for victory anyway.

Hamilton has had one of his finest seasons and it has gone under the radar, because the title has been effectively wrapped up since June.

But winning 11 from 21 races proves his dominance, particularly because of the threat he's had since the summer break from Ferrari and Red Bull.

In the end, I have marked Hamilton down behind Verstappen only because he went off track while leading in Germany and hit Albon in the chaotic final couple of laps in Brazil.

In reality, there was nothing to choose between the two. Hopefully next year we can see them in a genuine title fight. That is a mouthwatering prospect.

3. Charles Leclerc

Ferrari have had a lot of stick this year - and quite rightly. They have been disappointing in every area.

Abu Dhabi was a real microcosm of their season. As Hamilton and Mercedes waltzed to an easy win, Verstappen showed up both Ferraris.

Both drivers hit the wall on Friday. Leclerc missed a final qualifying lap because of a pointless strategic timing 'gamble'. The team were investigated for a fuel irregularity before the race even began, and ultimately found guilty. And they had a seven-second pit stop with Sebastian Vettel as well for good measure.

Leclerc can sometimes get lumped into Ferrari's woeful season; he has after all made a fair few mistakes, such as crashing in Baku qualifying, in the race in Germany or hitting Verstappen on the first lap in Japan.

But this is only his second season in F1, and in reality he has been a revelation. Taking the pole position trophy for his seven poles shows how fast he has been - and he added two excellent victories as well.

Leclerc has brought numerous question marks upon the future of Vettel, because of how much he's ended up shading his team-mate as the season has gone on, combined with Vettel's own mistakes.

In fact, Leclerc has beaten Vettel on every single measure - he outscored him in the championship, took more wins, more poles and comfortably won their qualifying head-to-head. And that was despite Ferrari starting the year favouring Vettel, and imposing team orders - generally in the German's favour - a number of times.

Races such as Bahrain and Belgium show how good Leclerc can be. Hopefully, with another year's experience and a second season with Ferrari, he can cut the mistakes and become a season-long threat. Whether Ferrari can hold up their part of the bargain is a different matter.

4. Carlos Sainz

Sainz is another man who has had an exceptional year, and just managed to take sixth in the championship with a brilliant last-lap pass on Nico Hulkenberg in Abu Dhabi. With both Gasly and Albon, his rivals for that spot, spending half a year in the significantly quicker Red Bull, that is seriously impressive.

Sainz hasn't been the fastest this season. He's actually been out-qualified by rookie team-mate Lando Norris 11-10 in the head-to-head - although the Spaniard is actually ahead when taking into account only sessions in which a fair comparison can be made. But he's been relentlessly strong in the races and ultimately that is what counts.

Sainz's first laps have always been strong, and his race-craft has been superb as well. He has made several great overtakes in the year, and barely had contact with other drivers, in spite of often being in the thick of the midfield chaos.

A first podium in Brazil was thoroughly deserved. It's just a shame he didn't actually get to stand up there as the stewards dithered when handing Hamilton a penalty.

McLaren have had a brilliant season, with huge progression from last year. But they have a lot of work to do if they and Sainz can achieve any better next year.

Consolidating fourth in the constructors' championship and getting closer to the big three will likely be the aim in 2020.

5. Sergio Perez

This was a really tough call between Sergio Perez and Daniel Ricciardo, but in the end I've given Perez the nod because the Racing Point was not as good a car as the Renault and the Mexican all but matched the Australian's points total.

It's been an under-the-radar but extremely strong season once more for Perez. Five top-seven finishes in the past nine races leapt him up to 10th in the championship, ahead of Norris and almost catching Ricciardo, despite having a slower car across the season.

There have been a few mistakes along the way, particularly in a barren patch in the middle of the season such as at Germany and Silverstone, where Perez went a full eight races in a row without scoring.

But either side of that run he failed to score in only two other races and surely punched higher than his car, with four best-of-the-rest finishes, thanks to some super race performances.

The rest of the grid

This season has been a real fall from grace for Ricciardo, since winning races with Red Bull last year. The switch to Renault hasn't been anywhere near a success. In fact, the team have dropped backwards by 31 points and a position in the constructors' championship even though they splashed out on the big-money signing of the Australian.

But Ricciardo isn't to blame for any of that. As a driver he has actually been very strong this year, outshining Nico Hulkenberg 14-7 in qualifying and 54-37 in the points.

Everyone who has raced alongside Hulkenberg rates him highly - including myself - so Ricciardo beating him in that manner, in his first season with the team, is an impressive start, personally at least.

The Pierre Gasly that drove the Toro Rosso in the second half of the season was very good. Both fast and consistent, he scored a stunning second place in Brazil in what was my favourite moment of the season.

Sadly, the Gasly that started the year in the Red Bull never got going. This was the ultimate Jekyll-and-Hyde season, with some of the best and some of the worst. Very mysterious.

George Russell, Albon and Norris have had strong rookie seasons. For Russell, he's had no competition and a terrible car, which has made gauging his performance difficult. But for what it's worth beating team-mate Robert Kubica 21-0 in qualifying was good. He had flashes of pace and barely put a foot wrong.

Albon's Toro Rosso half-season was encouraging. His Red Bull second half started in an encouraging fashion, and fell a little flat towards the end of the season. He could do with kicking on a bit next year, but hopefully a full winter of team integration can help.

Norris' season started very well. He was fairly consistently ahead of Sainz in qualifying in the first half of the year and was held back by misfortune in the races.

As the year went on, Sainz increasingly established himself over Norris as the lead McLaren driver, but points in six of the past eight races show that Norris still did a solid job. He is my rookie of the year.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kimi Raikkonen had a very good first half of the season in the Alfa Romeo, before slipping back, along with his team, in the second half.

A sequence of silly errors kicked off the second half of the season, but on the whole Raikkonen has still shown he has what it takes at 40, as he showed Antonio Giovinazzi the way, beating him in all but three races.

It was a tough year for Haas, and in particular Romain Grosjean, who was generally out-performed by team-mate Kevin Magnussen.

A number of incidents and a fair amount of radio whining didn't help the Frenchman's cause, but the team fell away from good midfielders to ninth in the constructors' this year, and for the most part had no clue why that happened.

They desperately need to understand the tyres more, as this has been their Achilles' heel since day one. One day they can be super quick, like in Barcelona when they were best of the rest. The next they are absolutely nowhere.

Finally, Kubica had the worst season of all. It was a remarkable achievement for the Pole to get back onto the grid after his rally accident in 2011, and the terrible injuries he suffered. But that's where it ends, sadly.

I was a Kubica fan in his BMW days and when he was at Renault in 2010, and I hope people will remember him as that driver, rather than the tail-end Charlie who limped around in a very poor Williams car this year.

Either his right arm and hand - which have only partial movement, and which appear to be more or less a passenger in the car - were holding him back, or so much time away simply left him rusty. Or maybe both.

Either way, his performances this year were not a true representation of a driver who is supremely naturally talented.

[tanadrin]

Actually managed to see Endgame tonight; thoroughly enjoyable, a solid entry in the franchise that met or exceeded all expectations. There is no post-credits scene, though, so don’t do like I did and sit through the credits on the off chance and nearly miss the last train home.

Individual thoughts that are not spoilers:

1 )Brie Larson’s haircut hoooooooly shit

2) I mean hoooooooooooooly shit

3) I have plenty of thoughts about like the characters and the way the plot was constructed and how it was all carried off

4) but can we just talk about Brie Larson’s hair for a minute please

Thoughts which might constitute spoilers:

5) Absolutely nothing about this movie was a surprise; it in fact hit all the expected notes in the expected order. That said, it did it well: Even with the opening scene, where you 100% know exactly what’s going to happen from the moment you see what’s going on, it still manages to hit pretty damn hard--doesn’t hurt that it’s basically one of the ur-Adult Fears come to life. Like Infinity War, it juggled a frankly huge cast, it built on ongoing narrative and character arcs well (and closed them!), and it worked very well both in its context in a larger franchise and as a standalone move--although it’s probably not narratively inseparable from IW for obvious reasons, I think those two together work as a fun, big, goofy, two-parter superhero movie.

6) As to the general plot: Thanos isn’t a stupid villain, and although his motivations are incoherent after five seconds of thought (”Hmm, killing half of all living things--wouldn’t that cut the economic and biological productivity of all inhabited planets by half or more, thus meaning in fact the survivors would be no better off after? Why would they be grateful to you?” At least in the comics this was a secondary motivation for another goal--being in love with Death--which mean it didn’t have to stand on its own as a premise), he goes about executing his plan competently. So of course he destroys the Infinity Stones right after he wins! And we get to watch the heroes impotently murder him in revenge, which does nothing to bring their friends back and only serves to highlight how traumatized they are by their loss. The movie doesn’t really explore much of the post-Snap world, but it doesn’t have time to, and what we see of it serves to reinforce what it’s really focused on in the beginning, which is the microcosm of the surviving Avengers’ grief. That works very well. I’m a little bummed they played Thor only for laughs, because “alcoholic loner too consumed by grief to lead his people” could also be full of pathos; but I think Thor was doomed to be some kind of comic relief after Taika Waititi’s makeover. It’s not a super objectionable choice (the movie badly needed its comic moments!), but I would like to see Thor be done justice as a dramatic character.

7) The time travel aspect was nonsense, but fun nonsense; I usually hate time travel plots with a passion, but this one was done very well. Specifically, it avoided you wondering whether it was creating alternate timelines where just as many people were doomed to suffer as in our prime reality, which always undercuts the whole concept; and because this was a capstone film on 11 years of a franchise, it provided the opportunity to revisit iconic moments and characters--but it avoided being a dumb clip show. It did that by making a nonsensical hash of causality, but Marvel movies in general make a nonsensical hash of physics, politics, history, biology, and astronomical scale, so w/e. Also Thanos being like “well, future me was a dumbass; clearly I should kill the entire universe this time” upped the stakes nicely in a very organic way. Although now there’s gonna be a little voice in the back of my head going like “This universe has been proven to have TIME TRAVEL which DOESN’T EVEN FUCK UP CAUSALITY, why do you not just recharter SHIELD to raid the future for super advanced technology.”

8) The post-snap world is gonna be a bureaucratic clusterfuck though. Half the population is five years younger than the other half. Will they avoid the mess with Peter Parker’s classmates by just assuming they were all dead too, or just ignore it?

9) Thor dual wielding! Holy shit!

10) That cast list at the end! Holy shit!

11) I like how they had to work really hard to keep Captain Marvel offscreen so she didn’t just meteor Thanos into the ground when he showed up

12) Can we get an undocumented Captain America next??

13) I like that the Infinity Stones are powerful, but costly to use; and that many of the deaths in the previous film weren’t fixable, so that there was a clear cost, and those stakes aren’t retroactively reduced to zero. It’s not really clear why Hulk couldn’t have brought back, say, Vision, given that he died just before the snap and by mundane means, but I’m glad (from a critical standpoint) they didn’t.

14) Pepper in an ironman suit FUCK YEAH

15) “I am inevitable!” “And I am Iron Man.” Great line--great sendoff for the character--and the reversal with Peter watching Tony die instead was friggin’ heartbreaking. They could have plausibly killed Cap, and I don’t think anybody would have been surprised if they’d killed Barton (I think they really wanted it to be ambiguous who would have to die to get the Soul Stone), but it was nice that some characters got their happy retirement.

16) Actually that whole giant fight scene was great. I’m a sucker for huge climactic battles, and the moment where you see Strange’s portal forming and you know the fight wasn’t all in vain, that they actually clawed back their redemption from the abyss, is really really satisfying; the Asgardians and Wakandans and everybody else showing up just looked really fucking cool, and the ensuing battle did not disappoint.

17) Peter’s nanosuit is also hilariously OP though

18) Tessa Thompson on a flying horse with a giant fucking spear HOLY MOTHERFUCKING SHIT

19) Tony/Cap/Thor was a good character triad to build the movie on, given their respective relationships, but I think that shot of all the women together showed the directors were aware that most of the movie wasn’t working with an exactly diverse cast.

20) I like that “just explaining what the fuck is going on like a reasonable person” gets tried at least once during the time travel, and that it works--but Bruce and Tilda Swinton are probably the two most reasonable people in the Marvel universe. (My headcanon is that Tilda Swinton is actually playing herself in all her Marvel appearances.)

All in all, I really liked it. Nothing there for someone who doesn’t enjoy the Marvel movies, but I don’t think anybody who appreciates the underlying premises of big, dumb superhero movies will be disappointed.

[f1chronicle]

Max Verstappen’s Coming Of Age

A big talking point of the 2015 FORMULA 1 season came from a young Max Verstappen at the Singapore Grand Prix. It’s what happened in the dying stages of the night-race that electrified the proceedings thereafter.

Max Verstappen’s Coming Of Age In Singapore

A young 18-year-old driver trying all in his might to salvage useful points for a midfielder disobeyed what were clear instructions to let his teammate through.

Most would’ve been pardoned for thinking this was irrational exuberance. Call it erratic even. But the guilty wasn’t charged, as he ended the race on P8, exactly the same position from where he’d started, and ahead of his teammate.

On his part, the race-finish earned the then Toro Rosso team six useful points of which the boy scored four.

Not a mighty earning if you consider race-winner Vettel earned 25 while Ricciardo scored 18.

But the boy had done brilliantly well in the context of his own race. How so? Right at the start of 61-lap contest, his STR 10 stalled on the grid and was pushed back to the pit-lane, which meant he’d fallen a lap behind the rest of the grid within seconds from the start.

To then rise up to ninth, by lap 49, having begun a lap down vis-à-vis the rest of the pack before finally finishing in eighth but not before passing Romain Grosjean, the Toro Rosso driver earned the faith of the team with Franz Tost confessing, “We initially thought Sainz was faster on fresher tyres but he wasn’t able to catch up!”

Though on his own part, Sainz’ teammate admitted he refused to let the Spaniard through for his father would’ve kicked him in the balls.

To many, this might have signaled arrogance of a silly nature.

How on earth can you let another one through? The kind of angst-filled verbatim-driven self-propagation you’d find on a bumper sticker.

But in reality, this was Max Verstappen being relentless.

Max Verstappen Has Always Had Incredible Self Belief

And it’s his solid self-belief in his abilities that would eventually see him drive most points of the duo at Scuderia Toro Rosso that season (Max 49 to Carlos’ 18).

And it’s this ‘Self belief’ that earned him arguably the greatest moment of F1 overtaking in the sport’s turbo-hybrid racing history that would follow a few months later.

For honestly, it’s not everyday that 19-year-olds evoke comparisons with greats like Senna and Schuamcher who are hailed as “Regenmeister” in Grand Prix racing.

So when Max Verstappen in his unrelenting mould pushed at Interlagos on November 13, 2016 without caring a darn about incessant rains that made track visibility as easy as dealing with the pandemic-hit 2020, he didn’t just score a podium (his first at Brazil).

He launched himself into a different ambit of appreciation compelling the most informed pundits to suggest they were visiting something extraordinary hitherto seen rarely but only at the expanse of Michael Schumacher in the 1996 Spanish Grand Prix and thanks to Senna’s genius under wet weather.

Max Verstappen’s fans may, to this day, adore each of his nine wins as his greatest moments in F1.

After all not many have scored as many wins at such a young age. But in truth, it’s what he did at Senna-land nearly half a decade back when the likes of Russell, Giovinazzi, Norris hadn’t even made their debuts that earned him a place among F1’s future greats.

And the fact that ‘Max’s Brazil 2016’ has, in itself, risen as an inseparable buzzword to describe the famous Dutch driver offers fitting testimony to the driver’s fearless nature.

A drive which saw Toto Wolff (Max’s biggest on-track rival’s team principal) hailed in describing, “The laws of physics are being redefined” saw the Red Bull driver make a momentous pass on Rosberg at turn-3. What was special beyond measure was that while the world champion followed the traditional dry line in holding his grid position, the young ebullient driver excellent on the wetter part of the track.

But overtakes, a few of which targeted and claimed even Sebastian Vettel weren’t the only awe-inspiring moments of that unforgettable Sao Paulo day, for right at the heart of excellent attacking were extraordinary saves that somehow kept the barriers at bay.

Where the best of the grid struggled and found no real traction, Max Verstappen found grip everywhere.

2016 Brazilian Grand Prix – Max Verstappen (image courtesy Red Bull Racing)

Max Verstappen Has Consistently Beaten His Teammates

But in a sport where beating the teammate is the driver’s first big challenge, Max’s success could be alluded to his ability at constantly pushing and maintaining an excellent sense of consistency all throughout.

And his qualifying form serves a bright reminder of this in 2020 where Verstappen hasn’t been outqualified even once by teammate Alex Albon.

In the exact same machine where the greatest high for the talented Albon has been his maiden podium- a remarkable one at the action-packed Tuscan GP- Max has responded mightily well to Red Bull’s expectation of him by doing the bulwark of their scoring.

He’s scored 7 podiums of the 10 races he’s entered with there being 3 DNFs, one each at Austria, Monza, and Tuscany.

In a year where Lewis Hamilton is, once again, lighting up FORMULA 1, Max is busy playing the antithesis to a smooth, incident-free prevalence of Hammertime. His surprising but well-fought win at the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix with Mercedes drivers suffering last-lap tyre delamination might have dampened the mood of countless around the world but it was strong template of a young rising force putting his initials next to a histotric date in F1’s history.

But knowing 2020’s fine form, what would you put it all down to? The element of surprise or Max’s will to succeed that that the one who began 2020 with a non-finish is currently third on the standings, being the key element of threat that arguably worries Hamilton more than his actual teammate?

Truth be told, while it’s easy to hail Verstappen for being the young prominent ‘hard-to-ignore’ figurehead in F1’s circus, it’s difficult to fully come to terms to the challenge he’s enduring and with magnificent composure.

Think for a second how easy would the task be to be Red Bull’s go-to man or the man constantly in charge being all of 23, of having an entire team revolve around the energies and talent of a figure who’s every bit as volatile as it is supremely gifted?

Temperamental, often easily-offended but completely non-political in his lookout, it’s only fair to say that Formula 1 is still breathing with original characters not restricted to a Kimi Raikkonen.

With crazy on-track shenanigans that have been fraught with danger and seemed rather strange with Verstappen driving dangerously in the earlier seasons (USA 2017 move on Kimi in the final lap, contesting Kimi at Hungary, 2016) what most adversaries now tackle is the crazy bull-like charge of a Red Bull force that doesn’t know what giving up means.

Someone who will fight for the vacant area on the track not by running madly into your rear but by defending with all his might. Ask Charles Leclerc about Austria 2019?

Apart from bringing Red Bull their much-anticipated maiden triumph on home turf, by winning at Spielberg in 2018, only to defend the event a year later, Max made his way into history books by becoming the only driver to win for Red Bull in his maiden run.

Remember the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix? Few have given Vettel’s maiden hurrah with Toro Rosso, in 2008 a feisty contest for the finest rookie win.

In some ways, Max’ proclivity to triumph also affords him a special status in that while it took him just 1 race to show his mettle to the team that’s become synonymous with his identity, others who’ve driven for Horner’s outfit don’t even come close.

It took Mark Webber 44 races with Red Bull to raise his first win with Vettel doing it in three. While Coulthard, otherwise with 13 race wins, simply failed to win for the Milton Keynes-based outfit, Ricciardo took seven attempts to take the Grand Prix win for Red Bull.

On his part, Verstappen, who finally got the measure of Daniel Ricciardo but not before being outscored by the Aussie in back-to-back runs in 2016 and 2017 (scoring 249 in 2018 to Daniel’s 170), is responsible for why the future of the sport looks interesting.

And it’s not just down to the fact that the quartet of Lando Norris, George Russell, Alex Albon, and Charles Leclerc looks absolutely brilliant and poised to succeed. It’s also because knowing Max Verstappen’s desire to constantly go fast and get better, come what may, he’s going to ensure that none of F1’s young talents ever have an easy day.

And in that uncompromising stance rests the essence of a man we love as Mad Max. May the race wins outscore the headbuts the no-holds-barred driver has on reserve for media pressers.

Happy 23rd Max!

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[thesundowncrew]

Slice of Life bio ; Axel

Depending on the thread, Axel’s occupation during his adulthood may change, and is flexible because of his affinity for doing odd jobs, but everything else is pretty solid. Left at the foster home when he was four-years-old. Nothing is known about his biological parents except that they were both Romani and that his birth-name was Vali.

TW: Sexual abuse mention between Age 13 and Age 14-15!

Age 4-7 *Had a pretty uneventful life growing up in the foster home. The home was headed by an old married couple who raised the foster children alongside their own, the few out of the 20 kids Vali grew up with. *The home ran their own pre-school, which is where the children learned how to read and write. *Was noted as one of the ‘slow children’ as Vali didn’t show particular interest in learning. *Brought up in a strict environment but was not subjected to anything harsh. *Was exceptionally active and big in size for his age. Loved to play outdoors. *Often played with the older children since he could keep up with their games eg. kickball, wrestling.

Age 7-12 *Vali was starting to be pushed away by the older children because he was ‘too young’ and away from the younger children because he was ‘too rough’. He found it hard to relate to the others because of his size and character. *Miruna (5-years-old) is brought to the home and they hit it off right away despite the obvious differences. *Took care of Miruna as if she was his own sister. Proved to the others that he was indeed gentle and the other kids started playing with him again. *Still spent most of his time with Miruna. They were almost inseparable. *Miruna loved to read and in turn got Vali interested in school again. Miruna would read to him and he would try his best to follow. *Considered an average student but showed great promise in sports and athletics. Age 13 *Grew at least a foot taller within a year, and added on weight in muscle. Could face off boys three years older than him (eg. Boian). *Ketele (14-years-old) is brought to the home and slowly latches on to Vali. She begrudgingly befriends Miruna as well. *Grows infatuated and even looked up to Ketele because she was older, and kids usually trusted those who were older than them. *Ketele seems friendly enough with Miruna but when she and Vali are alone, keeps encouraging the idea that Miruna is too young to be hanging out with them. That now they were big kids, they should play ‘big kid’ games. *Despite the feeling in his gut, Vali listens to Ketele anyway. In the back of his mind, he thought keeping Miruna away from Ketele was also a safer good idea. *Puberty hits very early for Vali much to Ketele’s delight. *Vali found that he was enjoying their visits to the attic and their ‘big kid’ games a lot less as Ketele started doing strange things to his body. *Lost his virginity at an age when he was unsure if he enjoyed sex or not. Also lost his anal virginity when Ketele ‘experimented’ by inserting different objects into him. But in his head, Ketele loved him and this was how they expressed their love for each other.

Age 14-15 *Ketele’s ‘experiments’ grew more frightening as she started using tools such as candles and cigarettes. *Despite the doubts in his head, Ketele’s emotional abuse and leash on him was so tight to the point he thought he deserved to be treated like trash. *Was taken by Ketele to a gas station downtown where his body had been promised to a paying gentleman for one hour of ‘playtime’. Ketele took the cash and Vali took the treatment like the broken toy he was. This continued for a whole year, locations varying from abandoned construction sites to dingy motel rooms. *During the years of abuse, Vali was told to stay away from Miruna (”Why would she love something as disgusting as you?”) to keep him leashed. *Despite the warnings, he sought solace in his little sister; the one, pure thing in this world. He still wanted to spend time with her and be her big brother when he could. *Seeing Vali still very much loved Miruna -in a way Ketele could only dream of someone loving her- she was furious. *Was outside the foster home when he witnessed Miruna get pushed out the attic window and fell to her death. *Ketele was arrested but the damage was done. Mentally scarred and emotionally wounded from being someone’s personal fuck-toy, Vali became unbalanced. *Was moved between three foster homes within 10 months due to his behavioral problems (actually symptoms of PTSD), and received heavy disciplinary measures (making matters worse).

Age 16-18 *Ran away from the foster homes and went ghost, living out on the streets. Traveled far across states until he settled down in the big city. *Was picked on by a gang but after nearly beating half the members to death, the gang leader decided to recruit him for extra muscle. *This way, Vali would get protection as well as combat experience. Learned how to handle knives and pistols. *Befriended Michael (Mikey for short) who took him in like a big brother. Mikey was a few years older than Vali and was different from the other gang members. *Mikey was the first one to figure out Vali’s night terrors stemmed from some childhood trauma and, though he didn’t know the details, he was determined to help Vali overcome it. *Vali idolized Mikey and soon fell for him, which started the confusion on his sexuality. *He came to terms with his sexuality rather easily but because many gang members were openly homophobic, he understood his feelings for Mikey as ‘abnormal’ and kept it hidden for safety’s sake. *He and Mikey had gotten very close. At one point, he couldn’t take it anymore and confessed his feelings, having already planned an escape route out of the gang in case Mikey ratted him out. He didn’t. *Though Mikey didn’t reciprocate his feelings, he wasn’t homophobic either and even helped Vali by validating his feelings as ‘normal’. *Vali discovers that Mikey has been wanting out of the gangs since forever but because of personal circumstances, he couldn’t easily abandon the life. Since Vali was younger, Mikey told him he had a better chance at rebuilding a life off the streets (“You deserve better”). *Vali stays in the gang for the sake of staying close to Mikey, but Mikey dies from a hit-and-run along with a few other members. The incident eventually triggered a massive war between the two gangs, one which Vali almost threw his life away for.

Age 19-25 *Left for dead and crawling on the pavement, Vali is found by Aed Hallahan and is brought home to Sundown. *Aed, being an ex-cop, has had experience with street kids getting caught up with gangs and is determined to help Vali rebuild his life. *Meets 10-year-old Sam and 9-year-old Natalie. *Stays with Aed in the bookstore’s attic, which eventually transformed into a proper bedroom (Aed’s bedroom is on the ground floor). *Thanks to connections, Aed helps Vali legally change his name to Axel Hunter and get him a little counseling help for his PTSD and medication for his insomnia. *Axel continues to work for his dues at the Sundown bookstore with the heavy lifting and errands. *Aed taught Axel how to drive, sponsored his classes and helped him acquire his license. *Thanks to Aed’s advice, even went to a vocational college where he picked up mechanic skills. Starts part-timing at an auto-mechanics. *Aed taught Axel basically everything else he needed to know to live a quiet, peaceful life. *Adjustment to this new, warm environment was difficult at first but being around Sam and Natalie helped Vali a lot. Especially Natalie, who reminded him a lot of Miruna. *It did not make his trauma magically disappear. He just became better at hiding it for everyone elses’ sake. *Falls back and forth into highly risky behavior like picking fights, heavy drinking and casual (and very rough) sex with anyone and everyone who shows him an ounce of attention. *Because of the apparent age-gap, Axel still had problems relating to Aed when it came to certain issues. Around this time, he meets Roddy McGee and befriends other people his age who teach him all about self-love again.

Age 26-29 *As Aed’s life deteriorates, he asks Axel to help disguise his failing health when in front of Sam to avoid making him worry. Though Axel didn’t particularly like doing it, he did as Aed wished (but Sam and Natalie figured it out soon enough). *Aed eventually stops being the face of Sundown and stays in bed longer while Axel takes over the front-desk duty. *Even with the additional responsibility of nursing Aed around the clock, Axel still found time to do smaller, odd jobs for extra cash. All the money he earned, he used it for Aed’s health bills and maintenance for the bookstore. *Aed passes away with Axel by his side. Had to deliver the bad news to Sam and Natalie. *To his surprise, he was written in Aed’s will and shared some inheritance with Sam. Sam had no qualms about it as he saw Axel as part of the family. *To cope, occasionally falls back into past risky behavior but nothing too unhealthy.

Age 30 and beyond *Axel restarts his life a second time, now with shared responsibility over the bookstore and with the extra money, he buys himself a small but comfortable flat. The bookstore attic remains as a bedroom for Sam, Natalie or guests to sleepover. *Works full-time at the auto-mechanics. Works hard till he even earns the promotion to senior mechanic and assistant manager. *Aed’s death struck a big blow, but Axel pulled himself together enough to take care of Sam as well as the bookstore. Now that he has sources of emotional and psychological support from friends, he lives a pretty stable and peaceful life like Mikey always wanted for him. *Is still anxious about maintaining healthy relationships, paranoid that he is not good enough for the long-term. Requires a lot of time and patience. *Despite everything, Axel continues on his path of healing. Still absolutely secretive and traumatized from his past life, he grows into his new one to forget the bad memories. But always carries with him the few precious good ones from when he was Vali.

PLACE IN SOCIETY

✖ FINANCIAL – wealthy  / moderate / poor / in poverty

✖ MEDICAL – fit / moderate / sickly / disabled / disadvantaged / deceased

✖ CLASS OR CASTE – upper / middle / working / slave / unsure

✖ EDUCATION – qualified / unqualified / perpetually studying

FAMILY

✖ MARITAL STATUS – married, happily / married, unhappily / engaged and devoted to a fault / partnered / single / divorced / widow or widower / separated / it’s complicated

✖ CHILDREN – has a child / no children / wants children / adopted a child

✖ FAMILY – close with (step) sibling(s) / not close with (step) sibling(s) / has no sibling(s) / sibling is deceased / estranged

✖ AFFILIATION – orphaned / adopted / disowned / raised by both parents / other

TRAITS & TENDENCIES

✖ disorganised / organized / in between

✖ close-minded / open-minded / in between

✖ cautious / reckless / in between

✖ patient / impatient / in between

✖ outspoken / reserved / in between

✖ leader / follower / in between

✖ sympathetic / unemphatic / in between

✖ optimistic / pessimistic / in between

✖ hardworking / lazy / in between

✖ cultured / uncultured / in between

✖ loyal / disloyal / in between

✖ faithful / unfaithful / unknown

SEXUALITY & ROMANTIC INCLINATION

✖ SEXUALITY – heterosexual / heteroflexual / homosexual / bisexual / asexual / pansexual / demi sexual

✖ SEX – sex repulsed / neutral / sex favorable

✖ ROMANCE – romance repulsed / romance neutral / romance favorable

✖ SEXUALLY – sexually adventurous / sex experienced / naive / inexperienced /curious / uninterested

ABILITIES

✖ COMBAT SKILLS – excellent / good / moderate / poor / none

✖ LITERACY SKILLS – excellent / good / moderate / poor / none

✖ ARTISTIC SKILLS – excellent / good / moderate / poor / none

✖ TECHNICAL SKILLS – excellent / good / moderate / poor / none

[ran-dumbrants]

Life Is Strange

And that’s a fact. You don’t know what could happen within the next three seconds. Don’t even try to assume what will happen tomorrow, because it’s 60 x 24 seconds…blah blah blah. You get it, right?

Anyways, I didn’t write this rant for the sole purpose of stating that life is strange, although I could write an entire essay (which I’m meant to be doing – procrastination 100) if I wanted to. Let’s get down to business, for damn sake.

Flashback to Year 3, 2013. I’m in your average Australian primary school – got some pretty cool (and weird) teachers, nice (and annoying) classmates – you get the idea. I’d just returned to my original school after being away for six months since someone couldn’t decide where to live. It’s pretty annoying for an 8-year-old who was enjoying her other school like 20 minutes away.

Back to the point. One of the girls who came in Year 2, I started to become friends with when I came back. She was nice and liked the same things I did. I’m gonna name her Katniss (since we both were interested in The Hunger Games – probably a little too young for it, as some would say. Oh well).

I wasn’t that much of a sociable kid when I was younger. I grew up with PlayStation, pretty much from when I could comprehend things and could use my hands like a normal human being (so like around 2 years old, probably). Skip to when I was 7, I ended up having my own PS2 with games like Cars, Metal Gear Solid 3 (a version with monkeys), Crash Bandicoot, Spyro, and Ratchet and Clank. I had a pretty cool childhood.

Only someone didn’t agree with my rather lack of socialisation. She thought I was a ‘huge loner and should have friends’. Fun fact, mate – you can have friends and be a gamer. That woman ended up putting me in dancing, but that’s another story (and many years of regret). Thankfully, she, and dancing are out of my life.

Let’s focus back on Katniss.

So, Katniss ended up inviting me over to her house one day. It was just a short walk from our school, and I was nervous, for a couple of reasons. First off, I’ve never walked along the streets of suburbs without my dad before. We were going in the total opposite direction of where I lived (my school and my house shared the same fence). It was just the two of us walking to her place. And I was going to her place.

During our little playdate (man that’s such a cute name), we ended up playing with barbies and a dollhouse. Some might say she was a little childish, but I begged to differ. Honestly, it was nice getting away from the console and using our imagination. It’s something that kids these days don’t have as much, and it’s pretty sad. Katniss and I ended up becoming BFF’s after that day.

That friendship continued all the way to Year 6. 2 years of trouble-making, being smart to the teachers, swearing behind our parents’ backs, and just being your average school kids. We had fun. Both of us were tomboys, and had similar interests and traits – we liked basketball, had brown hair, had mutual friends, and sat next to each other in class. The two of us were inseparable.

High school came. The time of change and experience.

And I’m not sure if I liked how it all turned out.

 Year 7. Once at the top of the food chain, and now dunked down to the very bottom. You’re the little fish with sharks.

Katniss and I, we started drifting apart. Very slowly at first. Maybe it was because of the fact that we were in different classes, meeting new and familiar faces. A whole bunch of kids from different schools came to one place, and it can be a little overwhelming at times.

Katniss and I stuck around together for a bit. We hung out near the music room courtyard during breaks, saying how high school’s cool and all that stuff. And so did other kids who we’ve never met before. Naturally, as shy 12-year-olds, we started talking to them. I saw them as alright kids, nothing too special.

During the course of one school year, Katniss and I pretty much went from best friends to acquaintances. Isn’t that strange? Who could think such a thing is possible? Actually, now that I think about it, it doesn’t seem too surprising.

Which is contradictory to when I found out Katniss was LGBT in Year 8, and I had (again) moved to another school. She’s totally prideful – paints the gay pride flag on the cheek of her face, shaves her head to a stereotypical hairstyle (absolutely no offence intended). I was shocked when I saw her Instagram.

How did I not see this? For 4 years I knew this girl – she was my best friend in primary.

This whole topic of LGBT really makes one think – about their values in life, what they think is important when it comes to choosing a romantic partner. I mean, it has me thinking about it, at least.

Do you want to know my conclusion, why I wrote exactly 900 words to come up to this part in my little rant?

I had a crush on her this whole time. It was the confusion of going through early puberty, what I thought were best friend characteristics, crushing on guys who I somehow thought were half-decent. Those blocked the truth from going into my eyes. Honestly, I didn’t even know non-heterosexuality was even a thing during my primary school years. I guess it’s a good and bad thing. Me imagining myself dating a girl was an impossibility for my younger self.

Seeing Katniss like this – prideful, confident, stunning the world with herself – could probably bring tears to my eyes. The memories would flood in, piece by piece, or crashing down like a collapsing dam. If I knew sooner before her eyes were caught by another girl, I would definitely have really considered dating her.

My 15-year-old self is really questioning everything about life. And this is my conclusion.

Life is strange.

[jodyedgarus]

The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong

No position in professional sports is more important or more misunderstood than the quarterback. NFL scouts, coaches and general managers — the world’s foremost experts on football player evaluation — have been notoriously terrible at separating good QB prospects from the bad through the years. No franchise or GM has shown the ability to beat the draft over time, and economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have convincingly shown that the league’s lack of consistent draft success is likely due to overconfidence rather than an efficient market. Throw in the fact that young QBs are sometimes placed in schemes that fail to take advantage of their skills,1 that red flags regarding character go unidentified or ignored2 and that prospects often lack stable coaching environments, and there is no shortage of explanations for the recurring evaluation failures.

All of this uncertainty makes the NFL draft extremely exciting: You never know for certain who will be good and who will be an absolute bust. Last year, much of the pre-draft speculation surrounded where current Buffalo Bills starting QB Josh Allen — who is tall and can hit an upright from his knees from 50 yards away — would be selected. This year, when Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray decided to forgo a career in baseball for a chance to become a top pick in the 2019 NFL draft, his measurables captured attention in a different way. Murray, listed at 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds, is 7 inches shorter and more than 40 pounds lighter than Allen, and he’s the the smallest top QB prospect in recent memory. While some scouts and NFL decision makers think Murray’s odds for NFL success are long — or have him off their draft boards entirely because of his lack of size — there is strong evidence in the form of metrics and models that he is actually a good bet to succeed.

Like the rest of the league, practitioners of analytics have a pretty poor track record at predicting QB success. It wasn’t just Browns fans who were high on Johnny Manziel — many predictive performance metrics liked him as well. If some of the world’s best football talent evaluators are convinced that Murray’s height is at least a minor red flag, how can we be confident that a 5-foot-10 college QB will be productive in the NFL? When it comes to the draft, deep humility is warranted. Still, there are solid reasons to be excited about Murray.

Completion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. The metric’s shortcomings — players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance — are well-known. But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool.

Completion percentage translates from college to the NFL

Share of NFL quarterback performance predicted by college performance in seven measures, 2011-18

share predicted Completion percentage 17.9%

–

Average depth of target 16.7

–

ESPN’s Total QBR 12.1

–

Yards per game 9.2

–

Touchdown rate 8.5

–

Yards per attempt 7.0

–

Adjusted yards per attempt 4.2

–

For players who attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL.

“Share predicted” here refers to the amount of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable in a bivariate regression.

Source: ESPN Stats & information group

Its kissing cousin in the pantheon of stats that translate from college to the pros is average depth of target: Passers who throw short (or deep) in college tend to continue that pattern in the NFL. These two metrics can be combined3 to create an expected completion percentage, which helps correct the deficiencies in raw completion percentage. If you give more credit to players who routinely complete deeper passes — and dock passers who dump off and check down more frequently — you can get a clearer picture of a player’s true accuracy and decision-making.

Another important adjustment is to account for the level of competition a player faced. ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating does this, and we’re doing it, too. For instance, passes in the Big Ten are completed at a lower rate than in the Big 12 and the Pac-12. We should boost players from conferences where it is tougher to complete a pass and ding players whose numbers are generated in conferences where passing is easier.

When we make these adjustments, and then subtract expected completion percentage from a QB’s actual completion percentage, we get a new metric: completion percentage over expected, or CPOE. An example: In 2011 at Wisconsin, Russell Wilson had a raw completion percentage of 73 percent. We would expect an average QB in the same conference who attempted the same number of passes at the same depths that Wilson attempted to have a completion percentage of just 57 percent. So Wilson posted an incredible CPOE of +16 percentage points in his last year of college. CPOE translates slightly less to the NFL than either raw completion percentage or average depth of target,4 but it does a substantially better job of predicting on-field production. In stat nerd parlance, we’ve traded a little stability for increased relevance.

CPOE best predicts yards per attempt in the NFL

Share of an NFL quarterback’s yards per attempt predicted by college performance measures, 2011-18

share predicted Completion percentage over expected 15.5%

–

Completion percentage 13.5

–

ESPN’s Total QBR 13.2

–

Yards per attempt 7.0

–

Average depth of target 0.0

For players who attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL.

“Share predicted” here refers to the amount of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable in a bivariate regression.

Source: ESPN Stats & Information group

The test of a good metric is that it is stable over time (for example from college to the NFL) and that it correlates with something important or valuable. Completion percentage over expected is slightly more stable than other advanced metrics like QBR. CPOE is also the best predictor of NFL yards per attempt. Since yards per attempt correlates well with NFL wins, and winning is both important and valuable, we’ve found a solid metric. It should help us identify NFL prospects likely to be good — so long as they are drafted and see enough playing time to accumulate 100 or more passing attempts.5

But before we stuff the metric into a model and start ranking this year’s quarterback prospects, it’s worth asking why CPOE in college might be a good measure of QB skill. One possible explanation is that it’s measuring not just accuracy but also the signal from other qualities that are crucial to pro success. The ability to consistently find the open receiver and complete a pass to him requires a quarterback first to read a defense and then to throw on time and on target. Throwing with anticipation and football IQ are both crucial to playing in the NFL at a high level, and they are likely both a part of the success signal in the metric.

CPOE is also probably capturing the ability to execute a system efficiently. A quarterback who understands how each piece of the offense complements the others and constrains the opposing defense is a huge asset for his team. The term “system QB” has a negative connotation in player evaluation circles that is probably unwarranted. If a quarterback is operating at a high level, he is inseparable from the system he’s being asked to run. It’s also likely the case that the mental and physical abilities to run any system efficiently are traits that translate — even if only imperfectly — to the pro game.

CPOE also measures accuracy, of course — which many believe is the most important trait a QB can posses. Some coaches believe accuracy is an innate skill and not something that can be taught once a player has reached college. Others believe that mechanical flaws can be corrected if other traits like arm strength are present. The Bills clearly hold this view or they wouldn’t have drafted Allen, a player with an incredibly live arm but who had a college completion rate 9.2 percentage points below expected. But regardless of whether accuracy can be taught at the NFL level, all evaluators acknowledge its importance.

With all this in mind, I built a simple logistic regression model that attempts to identify players who will go on to establish a career mark of at least 7.1 yards per attempt in the NFL — the league average from 2009 to 2018. The model took into account CPOE and six other metrics, all calculated for the player’s college career.6 There are 49 quarterbacks who have entered the NFL since 2012 who have also attempted at least 100 passes — except for small-school QBs for whom advanced college data wasn’t available. I randomly split those players into two sets and used one set to build the model and the second set to test to see if the model is any better than random chance at identifying which prospects will go on to play productive NFL football. Though the model is relatively simple — and it would be wonderful if the sample size were larger — the results are promising. The model correctly identified many players who went on to have NFL success and many more who didn’t. The best estimate for its generalized accuracy is that it will correctly identify a QB prospect as a hit or a bust in around 74 percent of cases.7 The table below shows the results of the model, labeled Predict, and includes players’ college stats.

Results from the quarterback prospect model

A random sample of the 49 quarterbacks who were drafted since 2012* by model probability, along with college stats including completion percentage over expected (CPOE)

College stats name CPOE YPA Avg. depth of target Total QBR Predicted prob.† Career NFL YPA Russell Wilson +16 10.3 10.4 94 >99% 7.9 Johnny Manziel +9 9.1 8.8 89 99 6.5 Jameis Winston +8 9.4 9.6 83 98 7.6 Kellen Moore +10 8.7 7.8 86 97 7.5 Deshaun Watson +5 8.4 8.8 86 93 8.3 Sam Darnold +5 8.5 9.5 80 77 6.9 Matt Barkley +4 8.2 8.1 77 73 7.4 Jared Goff +1 7.8 9.0 74 61 7.7 Kevin Hogan +4 8.5 9.3 80 37 6.1 Marcus Mariota +4 9.3 8.2 90 33 7.2 Kirk Cousins +4 7.9 8.5 58 29 7.6 Paxton Lynch +2 7.4 7.9 59 14 6.2 Geno Smith +3 8.2 7.3 74 5 6.8 Nathan Peterman +1 7.9 8.9 71 4 4.3 Zach Mettenberger +4 8.8 10.5 71 4 6.8 Trevor Siemian 0 6.4 8.2 53 3 6.8 Matt McGloin -2 7.2 8.5 60 2 6.7 Blake Bortles +4 8.5 7.5 78 1 6.7 Lamar Jackson 0 8.3 11.0 82 0 7.1

*And have attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL.

†Probability the player will meet or exceed a career yards per passing attempt average of 7.1.

Source: ESPN stats & information group

Humility is warranted at this moment, so let’s point and laugh at the failures first. After all, all models are universally wrong, but some can be useful. This one was wrong about Johnny Football, as it practically guaranteed Manziel to be an above-average NFL quarterback. What it didn’t know about was Johnny’s love of all-night parties and other off-field shenanigans. Kellen Moore, a lefty passer who had a decorated career at Boise State, is another hiccup for the model. Moore is an interesting case of a player who just barely reached the 100 passing attempt threshold and eclipsed 7.1 yards per attempt for his NFL career but still bounced around the league and never found success or even a starting job. So the model predicted his statistical success in yards per attempt but not his actual success on the field. The problem here is that our success metric — career yards per attempt over 7.1 — doesn’t perfectly discriminate between good and bad NFL QBs. Much like human evaluators, models can sometimes be right for the wrong reasons, and Moore is a prime example.8

The model was also suspiciously bad at predicting Lamar Jackson, ranking him as an almost sure bust as a passer. Jackson’s career yards per attempt — most of those attempts coming in just seven games — is right at the 7.1 threshold, and while he is no one’s idea of Drew Brees, a success probability of zero seems an overly harsh assessment for a player that has clear talent — especially running the ball — and has already helped his team to the playoffs.

Still, the good outweighs the bad. The only other false negatives in the bunch are Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota, both of whom have career yards per attempt figures above 7.1. Meanwhile the low probabilities assigned to passers like Nate Peterman, Zach Mettenberger, Paxton Lynch, Geno Smith and Blake Bortles all appear reasonably prescient.

Looking forward and applying the model to the current draft class, we find a few surprises. Kyler Murray sits comfortably at the top with a 97 percent probability of being an above-average pro quarterback. Murray’s physical and statistical production comps with Russell Wilson are especially striking. Wilson and Murray had roughly the same yards per attempt in college, identical average depth of target and similar Total QBR.9 Both are also under 6 feet tall and played baseball at a high level. As far as comps go for short QBs, you really can’t do any better.

Murray isn’t just a scrambler who excels working outside of the pocket and on broken plays, either. According to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, 91 percent of Murray’s 377 pass attempts in 2018 came inside the pocket, and 81.6 percent of those throws were on target and catchable. Murray faced five or more defensive backs on 82 percent of his passing attempts and threw a catchable pass 78.8 percent of the time. Against nickel and dime packages, he was even better when blitzed, with 79.1 percent of his passes charted as catchable when the defense brought pressure. And Murray didn’t just check down to the outlet receiver when the other team sent heat. Kyler pushed the ball downfield at depths of 20 yards or greater 21 percent of the time vs. a blitzing defender.

Meanwhile the other consensus first-round talent, Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, is viewed as much less of a sure thing by the model. While his CPOE is identical to Murray’s and his QBR is similar, the model rates his yards per attempt and low average depth of target as red flags that drag down his probability of success. Nickel is the base defense in the NFL, so a quarterback’s performance against it is important, and Haskins faced five or more defensive backs far less often than Murray, dropping back against nickel or dime on just 63 percent of his pass attempts. And when Haskins was blitzed out of those looks, he was not as adept at delivering on-target passes, with 76.4 percent charted as catchable despite only 6.6 percent traveling 20 yards or more in the air.

Kyler Murray’s accuracy and rushing put him atop his class

College quarterbacks invited to the 2019 NFL combine by their career statistics and predicted probability of success*

College stats Player CPOE YPA Avg. depth of target Total QBR Predicted Prob.† Kyler Murray +9% 10.4 10.4 92 97% Will Grier +6 9.0 10.2 78 90 Ryan Finley +4 7.6 8.5 76 78 Jordan Ta’amu +6 9.5 10.1 72 72 Dwayne Haskins +9 9.1 7.8 87 63 Brett Rypien +5 8.4 9.9 67 39 Jake Browning +3 8.3 8.8 73 38 Clayton Thorson 0 6.3 7.9 61 29 Trace McSorley +3 8.1 9.7 73 22 Daniel Jones -2 6.4 7.7 62 17 Gardner Minshew +2 7.1 6.8 70 4 Jarrett Stidham +3 8.5 8.3 69 3 Kyle Shurmur -3 7.0 9.0 59 1 Drew Lock -1 7.9 10.3 66 <1 Tyree Jackson -2 7.3 10.4 59 <1 Nick Fitzgerald -4 6.6 10.2 72 <1

*Excluding Easton Stick because of lack of data

†Probability the player will meet or exceed a career average of 7.1 yards per passing attempt

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

Other surprises from the consensus top-four prospects are the rankings of Duke’s Daniel Jones and Missouri’s Drew Lock — both of whom completed fewer passes than we would expect, and both of whom were assigned a low probability of NFL success. Teams should probably be very wary of both players. Since 2011, college QB prospects with completion percentages under expected — a list that includes Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Mike Glennon, Matt McGloin and Jacoby Brissett — have all failed to post career yards per attempt above the league average of 7.1. Meanwhile West Virginia’s Will Grier — a player few experts have mocked to go in the first round — looks to be the second-best QB prospect of the class. With his excellent college production and nearly prototypical size at 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds, Grier is a player whose stock could rise with a good performance on and off the field at the combine.

There are many weeks of interviews, testing and evaluation left to come for each of these prospects, and analytics are just one piece of the process. Models are certainly not a player’s destiny. Murray might end up profiling as a selfish diva who can’t play well with others. Lock could somehow morph into Patrick Mahomes. But ultimately the model and the metrics agree with Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury’s assessment that Murray is worthy of the top overall pick in the draft. Ship him off to a team with an early pick and a creative play-caller, and enjoy the air raid fever dream that follows.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/